Or a Big Fat Placebo, It's All the Same Crap

Week 13 Recap and Week 14 Picks

2009-12-07T13:10:00.000-08:00

I really took it on the chin on Sunday, picks-wise. This is the time of the year when most people (myself included) are generally nailing their picks. Why? Because by now we usually have a pretty good sense of who is good and who is lousy, and we're able to predict more accurately what kind of effect certain injuries will have on certain teams, based on observations we've made during 12 weeks of football. That's what makes the following picks so incredibly puzzling:

Houston (5-6, on the road) over Jacksonville (6-5)
Atlanta (6-5, without Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and 2-3 linemen) over Philadelphia (6-4)
San Francisco (5-6, on the road) over Seattle (4-7)

Houston? Really? With so many home underdogs, I took the 5-6 Texans to win in Jacksonville against the favored 6-5 Jaguars. And how about that Atlanta pick? Atlanta's whole offense was in street clothing, and I picked them over the favored 6-4 Eagles. Why, again? Because they were at home and "Chris Redman isn't so bad"? Indefensible.

And I should have known San Francisco would come up lame in Seattle. Most teams under-perform there, and there's a reason the Niners are now 2 games below .500.

Those are moron picks. I am a moron. Never ever place any bets based on anything I predict in this blog.

And now, let's review:

Jets over Bills, 19-13
My Pick: Jets over Bills, 17-14
Meh. Close enough. I said what I had to say about this in my last post.

Broncos over Chiefs, 44-13
My Pick: Broncos over Chiefs, 24-21
Hey, how 'bout that Matt Cassell fella?

Raiders over Steelers, 27-24
My Pick: Steelers over Raiders, 28-9
Wow. The Steelers are crap. And had I known at the time that they'd subsequently go out and lose to the Browns, there's no way I would have picked them to beat the Raiders (who, by that time, had already beaten the Steelers, since it'd be week 14). So, because the Steelers lost two in a row, to Oakland and Cleveland, and because the Raiders had shown their mettle by going into Pittsburgh and beating the Steelers, I would have felt perfectly comfortable going back in time to pick the Raiders in this game. Knowing, as I would, that they'd already won the game.

Jaguars over Texans, 23-18
My Pick: Texans over Jaguars, 34-24
Hooray for awfully designed trick plays in which your quarterback pitches your season to your tailback, who then throws your season away. Awesome.

Colts over Titans, 27-17
My Pick: Colts over Titans, 33-27
It was not the shoot-out I had hoped. The Colts still have their mojo, the ability to ruthlessly stomp the spark of life out of frisky division opponents.

Eagles over Falcons, 34-7
My Pick: Falcons over Eagles, 28-23
Wow. Yeesh. Yowza. Fuckin' Falcons didn't belong on the same field. Hell, they barely belonged in the same sport.

I can still give the Falcons a pass for this, even though I pretty stupidly went off in the other direction in my picks, suggesting the Falcons were still a competitive team with all of their injuries. The fact is, the Eagles are a shitload better than Atlanta's subs. Atlanta's just trying to scrape their way to the end of the season and find a way to get healthy before 2010.

Bengals over Lions, 23-13
My Pick: Bengals over Lions, 31-13
The Bengals are going to make the playoffs, and that's a significant achievement for this franchise. I'm happy for them. At this point, it's easy to look at this kind of win and just chalk up another "w", tell yourself this is the kind of game they have to win, when they don't put up a lot of points but their defense dominates and they win what is essentially a totally forgettable, unspectacular game versus a lesser opponent.

But don't you feel like pretty much every win the Bengals have had this season has been about the same? Sooner or later, if they want to actually win in the playoffs, they're going to have to gain some confidence in their offense. See, you can and will win some playoff games with just your defense. But teams that don't have confidence in their offense tend to go into a shell in the post-season, and as soon as they get behind by a few scores, the buzzards start a-circlin'. You need confidence in your offense, you need some rhythm, headed into the playoffs. The Bengals have weapons, so there's still hope. But you have to be able to put up more than 23 against an overmatched Lions team with a dismal defense. Just sayin'.

Saints over Redskins, 33-30
My Pick: Redskins over Saints, 27-23
I should have had this motherfucker. Laron Landry and Shaun Suisham conspired to yank it away from me.

I'm a little bitter today. I like the Saints a little bit less than I did last week. It's not right that the undefeated team gets every single motherfucking break in a contest against a down-and-out underdog. The classy thing to do would have been for Drew Brees or someone to hand the ball to a Redskins defender, shake his hand, congratulate him on the upset, then get on the fucking bus and go home. Sometime after Suisham missed the field goal. "Look, we've gotten every possible break in this game, at this point, we should probably be arrested if we win this game. Let's let the little guy have it." Why can't we live in that world? It's like me playing one on one hoops against a 6 year old, only he's outplaying the shit out of me, but every time he goes up for a game-winning layup, he gets struck by lightning. I can't take that win! It's bullshit!

So yeah. Fuck the Saints. Fuck the Saints, fuck karma, and motherfuck chance. I should be celebrating a brilliant pick today, not bitterly lamenting what might have been.

Panthers over Bucs, 16-6
My Pick: Panthers over Bucs, 20-14
You see how fucked up I've been with my picks? Even when I got one right, I wasn't really all that close. I was off. I'm finishing this season poorly.

Bears over Rams, 17-9
My Pick: Bears over Rams, 30-17
See? SEE?

Hey, you know what's more pathetic than these awful, incredibly screwed Bears? LOSING to the Bears.

Chargers over Cleveland, 30-23
My Pick: Chargers over Cleveland, 34-10
That effort will not do against the Cowboys. Toughen up, Chargers. We're counting on you to flatten the 'Boys and send them a little farther down the drain.

Seahawks over 49ers, 20-17
My Pick: 49ers over Seahawks, 24-17
Booooooooooooooooooooo.

Cardinals over Vikings, 30-17
My Pick: Vikings over Cardinals, 28-27
Kurt Warner is, and always has been, a much better quarterback than Brett Favre. Numbers support this. Results support this. By almost any measure other than durability, Kurt Warner is superior to Brett Favre. But most importantly, Kurt Warner went out and pissed all over an elite Vikings defense Monday night in a huge conference game, whereas the real Brett Favre stood up and dropped a deuce all over his own team.

So there. I know it may sound weird, but Kurt Warner is better than Brett Favre. Is and always has been.

Now, some seriously quick week 14 picks (obviously I missed Thursday night's game):

Denver @ Indianapolis
The Line: Indianapolis by 6.5
Keep it up, Colts!
Colts over Broncos, 24-20

Cincinnati @ Minnesota
The Line: Minnesota by 6
Should be a good game. I'm not sure Cincy has enough on offense to win at Minnesota, though.
Vikings over Bengals, 21-16

New York Jets @ Tampa Bay
The Line: New York Jets by 3.5
Our first road favorite, and it's the crummy Jets on the road with Kellen Clemens at quarterback.

Oh man, I'm tempted to pick the Bucs.

Ahhhhhhhh! Can't do it.
Jets over Bucs, 20-17

Buffalo @ Kansas City
The Line: Buffalo by 2.5
Another road favorite, and it's the crummy Bills on the road with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. What is the world coming to?

I really don't know what to do with this game.

Uhhhhh . . . Bills win!
Bills over Chiefs, 17-13

Green By @ Chicago
The Line: Green Bay by 4
Isn't it about time for another Green Bay disappointment? I think it is. Just when they seem to have figured it all out, Gay Cutler and the Bores go out and steal one away from them.

Yep. Sounds about right.
Bears over Packers, 27-23

New Orleans @ Atlanta
The Line: New Orleans by 10
Saints win.
Saints over Falcons, 31-14

Detroit @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 14
Yep. Not too confident in a disgruntled Daunte Culpepper against a desperate Ravens team in the rain in Baltimore.
Ravens over Lions, 23-10

Miami @ Jacksonville
The Line: Jacksonville by 2
It's impossible to predict this game. Anything could happen.
Jaguars over Dolphins, 43-41

Carolina @ New England
The Line: New England by 13
Yep. Matt Moore, meet the scum-of-the-earth schoolyard bully and all his loser friends.
Patriots over Panthers, 77-3

Seattle @ Houston
The Line: Houston by 7
Whatever.
Texans over Seahawks, 27-20

St. Louis @ Tennessee
The Line: Tennessee by 13
I say again: whatever.
Titans over Rams, 24-13

Washington @ Oakland
The Line: Washington by 2
Washington, favored on the road? This season? No. No no no. Terrible. Hate to do it, but Oakland now has to win.
Raiders over Redskins, 24-20

San Diego @ Dallas
The Line: Dallas by 3.5
And just to make sure the Cowboys find a way (to lose), I'm picking them in a landslide. And, AND, I'm rooting for them. GOOOOOOOOOOO COWBOYS!!
Cowboys over Chargers, 44-9

Philadelphia @ New York Giants
The Line: Philadelphia by 1
Can't do it. Can't pick the Eagles on the road at New York. Just can't.
Giants over Eagles, 28-27

Arizona @ San Francisco
The Line: Arizona by 3.5
I'm ready to believe in the Cardinals. They need to win this game and look good doing it.
Cardinals over 49ers, 27-21

That's it! With 39 minutes to spare!

Go Skynards!

Moar NFL Pleez

2009-12-04T09:29:00.000-08:00

The Jets and Their Embarrassing Head Coach

"I don't expect much from Rex Ryan's tenure in New York. Why? First, his dad was a crap head coach, and those Ryan boys effing worship their dad. Secondly, he's far too much of a player's coach. Third, he's all ga-ga over the media attention that comes from being a head coach, and I hate that crap. Fourth, some guys just don't have it as game-managers, and Ryan strikes me as one of those guys. Some of the most important stuff a head-coach does takes place in those time-sensitive down-and-distance moments in critical points in close games, and those are moments when your head has to be into the situation. I believe Ryan is a smart enough guy. The problem? The vast, overwhelming majority of those make-or-break moments happen when your offense is on the field, and I flat do not believe Ryan is a cerebral enough guy to be sharp on his offense in those moments."

I, Nostradamus Jr., wrote that in my NFL Preview way back when. History will remember that as one of the all-time greatest paragraphs, and here's why: in the past few weeks, I think everyone is starting to realize what an incredibly dismal head coach Rex Ryan is.

His clock and game management has already been sketchy this season, in close losses to Jacksonville, Buffalo, and twice to Miami. He's not a game manager. He's just not. In games decided by less than 6 points, the Jets are 0-4, and in each of those losses, time-outs, playcalling, and game-management played a role in undermining any chance the Jets may have had down the stretch. Twice in that stretch, against Buffalo and Jacksonville, his team had burned all three time-outs before their final possession of the game. In the second loss to Miami, he stubbornly refused to use his time-outs before his team's final possession, which, incidentally, started with less than a minute on the clock. He's a buffoon.

Last week, Ryan made the embarrassing, inexplicable, lame-brained, and ultimately useless decision to have Joe Girardi come teach his quarterback how to slide. First of all, if Ryan had his rookie quarterback spend anything more than 15 seconds working with the manager of the Yankees on a baseball move during a game week, he should be fired today. Second of all, you don't need a baseball player or coach or even a fan to teach a guy how to slide. Does Kellen Clemens know how to slide in a football game? Yes? Okay, there's your teacher. Getting Girardi to do it is a publicity stunt, a bald-faced, embarrassingly pathetic attention grab by a guy who's now developed a reputation for grabbing attention at every possible opportunity.

Now, is it important that Mark Sanchez get comfortable with the idea of sliding in certain situations? Probably. Quarterbacks, for the most part, are around to pass the ball down the field. Occasionally, a reasonably athletic quarterback may take an opportunity to gain some yards with his legs. The great Joe Montana made famous his belief that any time a quarterback can pick up yardage, particularly a first down, and get to the sideline, he should take off and run for the sideline, without thinking twice. I like that idea; it makes the quarterback dangerous and it adds another dimension to your offense, while protecting your quarterback's health. Especially athletic quarterbacks may take it a step further by running up field and picking up tough yards in traffic. I'm not sure Mark Sanchez is especially athletic, but he's young, anyway, and certainly fits into the middle group (he's a reasonably athletic guy who can pick up the occasional first down with his legs). Because he's not Vince Young or Michael Vick or even Alex Smith, he should probably get comfortable with the idea of protecting his health to the extent possible. In short, yes, he should know how to slide.

On Sunday, in a division contest, on the road, with their season still there for the salvaging, Mark Sanchez took off on third down and headed for first down yardage. He got close, guys closed in on him, he ducked low and lunged forward for the last yard, absorbed moderate contact while successfully converting the first down, and was hurt. For some absurd reason, Rex Ryan stood before the national media and said that was a bad idea.

Frankly, I don't know what to make of a head coach who says a player on the field in position to pick up a key first down in a key game should think of his health before and above the team's goal of keeping the ball. It's not like Sanchez was out there shucking and jiving, going over the top of a pile or busting a spin move. The guy lowered his head, ducked his shoulder, tucked the ball, and more or less dove straight for the ground. That's about as routine a play as there is in football. Any quarterback worth a damn makes that play 100 times out of 100. Can you imagine how you'd feel about a rookie quarterback in that situation sliding to a stop a yard short of a first down, and then explaining it off as him just preserving his health? I would almost immediately write that player off as a potential NFL franchise quarterback.

So let's take a bigger look at Rex Ryan's tenure as a head coach, short though it may yet be. He's a ham; his team loses close games; he doesn't know how to manage the clock; he spends practice week time grabbing publicity instead of working on the game-plan; he boo-hoos the referees and opposing coaches when he loses; he wants his rookie quarterback to think of his health before making a routine (albeit heroic) play to keep a drive alive; and he's willing to criticize him for it to the media.

I'm sticking to my guns here; Rex Ryan is not at all cut out to be a head coach. This is all part of a bigger picture. He does not understand game situations well enough to make intelligent decisions about managing a game. Burning time-outs in a close game is an example. Holding onto time-outs when your defense is on the field so your offense can use them on the final drive but failing to realize that your offense may not have enough time left on the clock to make use of the time-outs is another obvious one. Coaching your young quarterback to think of his health before making a gutsy-but-routine play to keep a drive alive in a division contest is perhaps less obvious, but it's the same problem. Countless quarterbacks have learned over and over again that making that exact play, when it presents itself, can make a huge difference in a game, in a season, and in the locker room. Mark Sanchez maybe wasn't thinking about this when he made that play, but there's some crude math going on in his teammates head at the end of that play no matter how he plays it. If he dives in there and picks up the first, his teammates decide they can trust him a little bit more and they respect his toughness. Most teammates will respond to that kind of play. If he slides short and they punt the ball, more than a few of them are going to look around, see the first down marker, see that he's a yard short and that he utterly gave up on that yard without a fight, and think of him as a chicken shit (if only for a moment). Any receiver or running back is going to think about what would happen to them if they slid to the ground a yard short of a first down. It's human nature.

Mark Sanchez absolutely made the right play. Is he made of glass? Possibly. But it was the right play, 100 times out of 100, and I'm 100% confident that a head coach who doesn't understand that is a moron.

My Absurd Pick of the Redskins over the Saints

No, I'm not backing off of this pick. Will the Redskins upset the Saints on Sunday? Probably not. I don't expect it to happen. I picked the Redskins because I think this game is going to be closer than maybe some people think it will be. I could have picked the Saints by 8 and called it gutsy, but it's still an 8 point loss and, really, does anybody pay attention to the margin of victory in a picks post? No (not that anybody is paying attention to this blog, and I mean AT ALL, but friggin' humor me, okay?).

The only way to pick the Redskins to do well in this game is to pick them to win. That way, I'm not in the miserable, shameful position of patting myself on the back if I pick the Redskins to lose by 3 and they lose by 4. "Hey, I'm fucking awesome, I told you it'd be close".

No. Screw that. If I'm going to pick the Redskins to do well at home against a juggernaut coming off a big emotional win and a short week of practice, I have to pick them to win. Because if I told you at the start of the season that the Saints were going to win their first 11 games and ultimately lose only once, you'd think the short week after the Patriots game, outdoors, in December, against an NFC East team with a noisy home crowd and Albert Haynesworth pressuring the pocket would be as good a time as any. And it is. Bizarre as it may sound, the 3-8 Redskins, losers of 6 of their last 7 games, are playing as well as they have all season and, record aside, look like a legitimate professional football team. They played damn well at Dallas and at Philadelphia in their last two games, and smacked the 6-2 Broncos in their last home game. There are any number of guys playing right now on the Redskins who honestly don't give a shit and a half about a 3-8 record; they're playing for reputation, or for a job, or because it's the first time they've been given a legitimate shot at playing time in their entire career. The Redskins have absolutely nothing to lose in this game.

The Saints, on the other hand, have ascended. They've climbed to the top. They've all but clinched the AFC South. They just delivered a prime-time nationally televised smackdown to the reigning NFL juggernaut. This was a short work week for them. Last season, the Redskins defense did as well as any team has in two seasons at shutting down the Saints' passing game. Statistically, this is the best defense, by far, that the Saints have faced since week 5. Their last 6 opponents have had the 19th (Miami), 27th (Atlanta), 11th (Carolina), 28th (St. Louis), 26th (Tampa Bay), and 12th (Patriots) ranked defenses in the NFL by yardage, and in Carolina's case, you're talking about a defense giving up nearly 24 points a game.

All of this is a long way of saying this; the Redskins could win this game. I think they've got a chance. Of course, the last time I wrote out an explanation of a pick like this, the Redskins lost to the Patriots, at home, by 45 points.

The Vikings are Frauds

The Vikings needed a hail-mary to beat the 49ers by 3. They beat the Ravens in Minnesota by 2. They beat the Packers twice by a combined 19 points. They were thumped by the Steelers.

The rest of their schedule?

Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis, Detroit (again), Seattle, Chicago. They've won against those teams by a combined 1,000,000 point margin. In the next month, they go to Arizona, host Cincinnati, then have two more cupcakes (at Carolina and at Chicago), then finish up at home versus the Giants. We'll learn quite a bit about the Vikings over the next 5 weeks.

I, for one, expect slippage.

That's it!

Go Skynards!

Week 12 in Review, Plus Week 13 Picks

2009-11-30T11:23:00.000-08:00

This was a pretty bizarre weekend of NFL action. Very few teams played especially well on Sunday; the Vikings, the Bills (of all teams), San Francisco, and San Diego. A few teams took absolutely brutal losses; Washington, Houston, Miami, Arizona, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh come to mind. There were remarkably few noteworthy individual performances. The playoff picture was not made much clearer in either conference.

I found myself paying special attention to quarterback play this weekend. A few of the good performances were surprises to me, most notably Alex Smith of the 49ers. I watched most of that game, and virtually all of it after it became apparent that the 4pm NFC game was going to be a full-on bloodbath, roughly 7 minutes into the first quarter. Alex Smith impressed me, running the more spread out offense in San Francisco. The most important, impressive part of his performance was his decisiveness with the ball, followed by his movement in the pocket and his look of confidence and comfort. He was sharp, he was deliberate, he moved the ball, he made very few bad or risky decisions. I think he could be the guy in San Francisco, I really do.

Jason Campbell played well for Washington. He, too, looked decisive (for the most part), and looked comfortable throwing the ball down the field, especially considering how horrific his protection continues to be. He's got to use his feet more to create space, time, and yardage when his protection breaks down, but he looks quite comfortable throwing to the young receivers on the roster, especially on the mid to deep throws. Some team other than the Redskins (probably Carolina) is going to get a free-agent steal this off-season. I can't wait to see what he can do on a team with a good offensive line, a good running game, and more aggressive playcalling.

Brett Favre was lights-out for Minnesota. Philip Rivers was lights-out for San Diego. Drew Brees was unbelievable for the Saints.

On the other side of the coin, Jay Cutler was abysmal for Chicago. Even on the throws he did make, he stared down what seemed to be his first and only option on the play. I'm not convinced that guy reads or manipulates coverages at all once the ball is snapped. It looked like the Bears were calling their passing game so deliberately, especially early in the game, to give Cutler one safe place to go with the ball and remove decision making from the process. It seems like others are starting to catch on now, but it looks like Cutler may not be cut out for winning football games. He's reckless with the ball to a fault.

Jake Delhomme was an absolute train-wreck for Carolina in their awful loss to the Jets. I'm sorry, but that guy just cannot play quarterback in the NFL anymore. They say he may have a broken finger now, and if so, that probably signals the end of his tenure as a starting quarterback for the Panthers. 14 of 34 for 130 yards and 4 picks? If it were one game, you'd let it pass, but those numbers are not uncharacteristic any longer for Delhomme. Quite simply, a veteran quarterback cannot put those kinds of numbers up more than maybe once every two years. Jason Campbell is no Tom Brady, but he hasn't put up numbers like that in any game in his entire career. The Panthers cannot win with Delhomme playing like he's played this season.

I usually don't get to watch multiple games on Sundays, but I did this Sunday, and a good number of highlights and re-caps, too. Quarterback play really stood out for one reason or another (perhaps because the Redskins are about to enter 2010 with finding a franchise quarterback at the top of their off-season to-do list), and it seemed pretty plain that there are a number of talented teams out there who just can't win with their quarterbacks playing as they are. More than ever, it highlighted to me that this has not been the case with Jason Campbell in Washington. If anything, I'd say Jason Campbell has proven, with this embarrassing disaster of an organization around him, that he's exactly the kind of quarterback you can win with in the NFL. He protects the football. He makes good decisions. He extends plays and drives with his individual efforts. He spreads the ball around and keeps the playmakers involved. He's managed to stay healthy despite taking a brutal pounding. He's consistent. He seems to improve every year in one way or another. And then there are the measurables; he's tall, he's got a cannon arm, he's reasonably athletic, and he completes a high percentage of his passes. With a shite offensive line, some of the NFL's worst skill position players, and in an organization that pretty much defines the word "dysfunctional", he's managed to put up numbers that, on paper, make him one of the NFL's top 10-12 quarterbacks.

This will be just another of those agonizing instances where a Washington sports franchise lets an obvious asset get away because the organization is too disorganized and unprofessional to know how to cultivate a winning program around him. As with the Wizards/Bullets (who, incidentally, have never ever ever built a winning organization through the draft. They came close with Webber and Howard, then blew the whole thing up for . . . umm . . . Mitch Richmond.), the Redskins have spent the past decade or more reaching for free-agents and mercenaries, building hideous, top-heavy rosters, and dodging again and again the obviously necessary process of fully re-building a winning organization through the draft. I, for one, am sick of this crap. For Jason Campbell, though, I'll be happy when he's given a chance to work for a real football team sometime in the near future. I just hope he doesn't land in Oakland.

And now, a re-cap!

Colts over Texans, 35-27
My Pick: Colts over Texans, 28-27
Hey, Texans fans, next year looks like your year!

I'll tell ya, I really thought the Texans had the Colts on Sunday. Indy's defense was awful in the first half, especially on play fakes. The game turned utterly on Matt Schaub's indefensibly atrocious pick-six to Clint Sessions. That was a truly terrible decision, at a critical point in the game, and it gave all the momentum to Indianapolis.

The funny thing about Schaub is, he does literally every single thing a quarterback can do about as well as anybody in the NFL, except the whole "knowing how to win" part. When you watch him play, his mechanics are fantastic, he executes a play-fake as well as can be done, he throws a beautiful, accurate deep ball and is precise on all his short throws, and he generally makes rock-solid decisions. He just has a habit of making that kind of throw in key situations in big games. I feel like this is often the case with promising young quarterbacks. Last season, it was Aaron Rodgers; he'd put up 315 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he'd throw a bad ball in the early fourth quarter, or make one bone-headed decision on the game's final drive with a win within grasp, and the Packers would somehow lose. Sometimes, even the really obviously solid young quarterbacks need some time to marry statistical success with actual winning. I think Schaub will get there. And it hasn't always been Schaub's fault this season with the Texans, but he had a huge hand in Sunday's loss. The other pick wasn't so bad, but he lost a fumble by not sensing pressure around him, on top of the awful pick to Sessions.

Schaub's still a tremendous young quarterback, and he can come play for my team any day.

As for Indy, their work isn't done if they're interested in trying for an undefeated season. Next up is a sizzling Tennessee team, followed by the desperate Broncos (both in Indianapolis). They then have a home date with the miserable Jets sandwiched between two road trips, at Jacksonville and at Buffalo. If they can get past these next two, however, the odds will be strongly in their favor. For my part, I can't think of anything better than Peyton Manning and the Colts basically wiping even more of the shine off of the Patriots' undefeated season.

Bengals over Browns, 16-7
My Pick: Bengals over Browns, 24-9
Yeah, that was about what I imagined. The Bengals aren't playing as well as they have this season, but they're in great shape in their division.

Vikings over Bears, 36-10
My Pick: Vikings over Bears, 34-17
Yowza. That was even worse than I expected. My God, the Bears are awful. They gained an astonishing 2 yards of offense in the second half of the game.

I just have a couple of notes about this laugher.

First, Brett Favre was great. He just was.

Second, Jay Cutler was so not. What's more, body language-wise, Jay Cutler looked like a guy who never in a million years thought his team had a chance to win. Whatever else is wrong with Cutler (and there's plenty), he's got to do something about his body language. I can't imagine his teammates have ever felt warmed, let alone inspired, by his personality. He looks like the quarterback of a losing team. Which makes sense, if you really strain your brain.

Third, on Chester Taylor's catch-and-run touchdown, Chicago's defensive back makes one of the worst chicken-shit plays you'll see in an NFL game. Taylor is gunning for the pylon, and the back has the angle on him, but instead of lowering his shoulder and trying to knock him out of bounds or stop him short, the back pulls up and jumps over him to avoid contact. Would Minnesota have scored anyway on that drive? Probably. Is that the kind of play a professional athlete (one with any pride, anyway) makes in a division game? Hell no.

Fourth, when you're down 24-7 in the third quarter, on the road, and your kick returner breaks off a 77-yard return to put your offense in business in the red-zone, NEVER EVER EVER settle for a field goal. I don't care if it's fourth and 40. What the hell does a field goal do for you? I hate to sound like that douchebag TMQ on ESPN.com, but that was a chicken shit call, and you're never going to win a game when you make that call.

Eagles over Redskins, 27-24
My Pick: Eagles over Redskins, 23-17
Man. Man man man. The Redskins really should have won this game.

Now, a few notes from this game:

1. Jason Campbell played well, but he paid the price for staring down an underneath route on Asante Samuel's side of the field. Twice. To put it plainly, you cannot stare down any route underneath Asante Samuel. He will jump it, and if he gets there, he will intercept it. Now, why Washington never went with Jason staring down an underneath route, pumping Samuel, then going over the top to whoever Samuel left, I'm not sure, but it was there, I'm sure of it.

2. Laron Landry needs to bring Jason Avant down on that one completion over the middle. You know the one. Landry lowered his shoulder and tried to blow him up, bounced right off of him, and Avant picked up another 20 yards running up the right sideline. This has become so common with Landry that, if it doesn't happen in a game, you notice.

3. Reid Doughty completely blew his coverage on Deshawn Jackson's touchdown reception. That was a three deep zone. How do I know? Because Doughty chased the underneath route right under Laron Landry's deep-middle zone. Fred Smoot stayed in the flat, Doughty was supposed to cover the deep third. He got caught cheating in on the post and let Jackson run completely free up the left sideline. If the Redskins don't give up a touchdown there, they win the game. Why? Because Philly would have mentally checked out. I know it.

4. Fred Davis is a baller. I'm almost ready to say Devin Thomas is a baller, too. Malcolm Kelly shows glimpses. Finally, though, all three of them are regular contributors. Just in time for the whole organization to be blown up this off-season.

This was an evenly played game, incredibly so. It came down to a few key screw ups by the Redskins in key moments. They've now lost 8 of 11 games, but I'll say this; if they'd lost all 8 of those games the way they've lost 3 of their last 4, I would have a completely different feeling about their 2009 season. In their last 4 games, they've looked like a professional football team, which is a dramatic departure from how they started the season. I can handle them losing, as long as they're playing well. I was not down in the dumps Sunday afternoon.

And here's the really funny thing; it' s possible this current Redskins game-day roster is my favorite Redskins roster of the past decade. Of course, the offensive line is terrible, but even there, they're starting two young Maryland guys and Derrick Dockery, who they originally drafted. Their backfield has local guy Marcus Mason and fan-favorite and all around Swiss Army Knife Rock Cartwright. Both guys run hungrier and with more explosion than Clinton Portis, and their combined salary is probably a tenth or less of his. I much prefer this receiving corps to the previous version; finally, the Redskins are actually working on developing their young receivers, and it's paying off. Plus, these receivers are so, so much more explosive than their veteran teammates. I'm not saying they're phasing out Santana Moss or Antwan Randle El, but they sure seem to be looking an awful lot at Devin Thomas, Fred Davis, and Malcolm Kelly. I'd really like to see Marko Mitchell out there some. On defense, while I acknowledge that Albert Haynesworth is a beast, I admire this defensive line more for their humble pedigree. (Will I be happy when Haynesworth returns? Of course.) The linebackers are fine. I like the secondary much better with Justin Tryon in action and DeAngelo Hall on the bench. I'd like it even better if Chris Horton were healthy. And on special teams, I really like Devin Thomas returning kicks. He may have a shite return every now and again (as he did on his final return against the Eagles, heading laterally and getting tackled from behind), but he's young, hungry, and explosive, and much more likely to break a long return than Rock ever was. Plus, this is why you have young guys and this is what you're supposed to do with them when they haven't really stepped forward on offense. It's a shame it took injuries to bring it about, but I'll take it anyway.

On the other hand, there are a number of Redskins I really like who are now on injured reserve; Horton, Chris Cooley, and especially Jeremy Jarmon. Still, if the Redskins are going to suck and lose, they might as well suck and lose with a bunch of young guys playing key positions. The good news is, while they're still losing, they're actually sucking a whole lot less with these guys on the field.

Bills over Dolphins, 31-14
My Pick: Dolphins over Bills, 24-13
Holy balls. What a joke.

Titans over Cardinals, 20-17
My Pick: Cardinals over Titans, 28-24
All bets are off with the 2009 Tennessee Titans. Arizona's defense may not be the Steel Curtain, but they're engineered specifically to play from ahead in late game scenarios; they rush the passer extremely well and their secondary is aggressive and opportunistic. Vince Young made shredded cabbage out of them.

Tennessee started 2009 0-6 with Kerry Collins under center. They've now won 5 in a row. If, 5 weeks ago, Vince Young had won this game in this fashion, we'd all say "Wow, isn't that nice", and move on. If 5 weeks later, they'd won five in a row, we'd then say "Wow, that was the start of something special right there!" But if you win 5 in a row with Vince Young, and it's the fifth win that comes like this, the reaction is more like "this team has it, whatever it is, and I'm never betting against them again." That's not really a huge revelation, just an interesting little thing I was thinking about. Their season was on the line this time. In the first scenario, nothing much mattered but personal and/or professional pride. Now, with a streak on the line and the season suddenly hanging in the balance, this was a huge, huge pressure situation. And that's what makes it so impressive, and this Titans team seem so ridiculously blessed; as if winning 4 straight after an 0-6 start with (I think it's fair to call him) a cast-off Vince Young under center wasn't impressive enough, to then go out and put together a game-winning 99-yard touchdown drive against the Super Bowl runner up, with the game winning catch made by a rookie on fourth down as time expired . . . incredible. I'm legitimately torn about picking against them in week 13, at Indianapolis. As crazy as it might sound, the 5-6 Titans seem to be significantly hotter right now than the 11-0 Indianapolis Colts, who just staged their own memorable fourth quarter comeback on the road against a division rival and are only two weeks removed from the season's first incredibly memorable comeback win. Incredible. Incredibly incredible, the way this season has turned for the Titans. To hell with the Saints; I'm riding the Titans the rest of the way.

Seahawks over Rams, 27-17
My Pick: Rams over Seahawks, 13-10
I went out on a fucking limb, okay?

Falcons over Bucs, 20-17
My Pick: Falcons over Bucs, 31-14
It's got to be encouraging, for Falcons fans, that their team can win a game without their top running back and franchise quarterback. On the other hand, when you need a collapse by your opponent and a fairly miraculous finish to get that win, against a 1-win team that's pretty clearly circling the drain, I'm not sure how good you can feel about it. I mean, Tampa Bay was one horrendously stupid (and at least somewhat suspect) penalty well away from the ball from winning this game.

And that's all I have to say about that.

Well, wait, except for this; Josh Freeman continues to look like a guy who could develop into a franchise quarterback. He made some really nice throws in this game.

Jets over Panthers, 17-6
My Pick: Panthers over Jets, 20-17
I made this point earlier, but it's worth covering a second time: the Panthers will never, ever be competitive as long as Jake Delhomme continues to play anything like he's played at any point this season. It behooves John Fox to get a young quarterback in there immediately if he has any interest in continuing to coach the Panthers beyond this season. Like Jeff Fisher in Tennessee, it will do him wonders if he can create a situation where pundits and fans are inclined to tie up all the team's recent struggles and hang them around the neck of a displaced, veteran, former quarterback. Not that Jeff Fisher's job was necessarily in any danger, but John Fox's is, and whatever gripes people had with Fisher have been utterly transferred to Kerry Collins as Vince Young leads the same team back towards the playoff race. If Fox could put together the same kind of run in Carolina with, say, Matt Moore, I feel very confident he'd be back in 2010.

As for Delhomme, I've got to think his time in the NFL is coming to a close. He may be able to hang around for another season or two as an expensive backup in Carolina, but I can't see another team taking on his absurd contract via trade, and if the Panthers were to cut him loose, I can't imagine another team wanting him as even an insurance policy. Ol' Jake was a battler for a stretch there, but if you were secretly always skeptical of his place among legitimate franchise quarterbacks, well, you weren't alone, and this season is the exact reason why. Throughout his career as a starting quarterback, he's been a terrible decision maker, especially when under pressure. For whatever reason, starting with the NFC Divisional Playoffs of the 2008 season, he's been at his absolute worst and hasn't been able to snap out of it for more than maybe a quarter or two at a time. I don't have anything against Delhomme, but I honestly think if you'd replaced him with any of a dozen different quarterbacks for his time in Carolina, that team probably would have won a Super Bowl in there and we'd think of the entire team and John Fox in a totally different light today. Ahhh, such is the nature of things, I suppose.

49ers over Jaguars, 20-3
My Pick: Jaguars over 49ers, 23-21
As I said above, Alex Smith played very, very well against the Jaguars. Jacksonville's offensive line was brutally bad, and that was pretty much the story of the game. One guy played well with decent protection, the other guy did what you'd expect behind atrocious protection.

Chargers over Chiefs, 43-14
My Pick: Chargers over Chiefs, 41-21
If you didn't think the Chargers would put up 40 and win by 20 or more, you're too much of a Chiefs homer to see clearly. I bet Todd Haley had the Chargers putting up 45 and winning by 30. I was downright generous in my pick.

Ravens over Steelers, 20-17
My Pick: Ravens over Steelers, 24-14
It would be convenient to wrap up the 2009 Steelers in the "injury" blanket and wipe this season away as lost. The reality, on the other hand, is that this team is far, far too reliant on one guy's heroics on offense and another guy's heroics on defense, and at a certain point, you're just failing as an organization if the loss of either of those guys sends a unit into a tailspin. That's exactly been the case in Pittsburgh; without Roethlisberger, their offense is pedestrian at best. Without Polamalu, their defense becomes significantly less dangerous. And really, what does it say about a team when their two most indispensable players have names with an average of 23 syllables and 475 letters? Seriously, they couldn't find two good players with normal names? There were no Smiths, no Joneses, no Browns? Go to hell, Pittsburgh.

Saints over Patriots, 38-17
My Pick: Saints over Patriots, 38-33
Ouch. I don't know who the Patriots fellated, but they had no effing business being out there. NO BUSINESS! NO! THEY HAD NO BUSINESS BEING OUT THERE!

I have to say this; I think I hate Tom Brady. I think it's possible I'd like any other player or coach or executive from that team if you removed them from that team and put them somewhere else. Brady? Nope. I revel in his embarrassment. Two of my happiest moments as a sports fan have both involved him; watching him quit on the field at the end of the Super Bowl against the Giants, and watching him throw two awful, indefensible picks against the Saints and get the mercy-pull in the fourth quarter. I hate the guy. If Bernard Pollard had dropped out of the sky in the fourth quarter and nuked Brady's other knee, I would not have been terribly upset. It's gotten to that point.

It's hard to put my finger on exactly where the hate comes from, but I suppose it's at least partly because I think he's just tremendously overrated as a player. Do I think he's a very good quarterback? Sure. Am I disgusted that he's mentioned alongside Joe Montana, or even Payton Manning, as one of the all-time greats? Yes, almost to the point of actual nausea. He's a system player. How do I know? When the Patriots do something special on offense, it's always done within the rigid rhythm of their offense. When that rhythm is even a little off, nothing special ever happens. He never plays well at all when there's pocket pressure. And when things go wrong, we all invariably say "_____ team/coach/player has figured out how to cover Wes Welker/Randy Moss". And every time someone figures out how to cover either Welker or Moss or both, things go wrong and he plays poorly.

When Payton Manning wins a game, he makes incredible throws over and over again. When Drew Brees wins a game, it's the same; big throw after big throw. Guts in the pocket. Gutsy, memorable plays. Touch and timing and accuracy, over and over again. When Tom Brady wins, he makes a five yard dump off and Welker outruns everyone, or Randy Moss outruns everyone deep and he throws it up there for him.

So there. Fuck Tom Brady. Smug douchebag.

And now, picks (ultra-quick style)!

New York Jets @ Buffalo
The Line: New York Jets by 3.5
Jets over Bills, 17-14

Denver @ Kansas City
The Line: Denver by 4.5
Not so sure about this one. Some home-dogs are going to win this Sunday, and this could be one of them. I haven't fully bought the Broncos' return to form, even after their shellacking of the Giants in week 12. Nothing would surprise me here.

Shoot, I guess I'll take the Broncos.
Broncos over Chiefs, 24-21

Oakland @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh by 14.5
Should be a pounding. I can't see the home crowd letting Pittsburgh play poorly when so much is at stake. They need every win from here on out. Plus, it's a 1pm East Coast game for a dreadful West Coast team.
Steelers over Raiders, 28-9

Houston @ Jacksonville
The Line: Even
With all these road favorites in week 13, it's hard for me to go out on a limb on a road-dog. I really want to pick Houston, though.

Fuck it, I'm taking Houston.
Texans over Jaguars, 34-24

Tennessee @ Indianapolis
The Line: Indianapolis by 6.5
This will be a fascinating game. And I have no idea how to pick it. In the past, Indy has relished the opportunity to squash a hot division opponent. The Titans aren't just a little bit hot, though, they're blistering, scalding, nuclear hell hot. And Chris Johnson ought to run absolutely wild on Indy's soft defense.

I really don't know.

Okay, here it is: I think it'll be a shoot-out, and in a shoot-out, the team that blinks first will lose. Peyton Manning will not blink at home. Vince Young is far, far more likely to blink. And the Indy crowd ought to be completely insane, with the undefeated season on the line against such a streaking division rival. Therefore, Colts win!!
Colts over Titans, 33-27

Philadelphia @ Atlanta
The Line: Philadelphia by 5.5
Now here's a home-dog I'm quite comfortable backing. Philly, sans Deshawn Jackson, in Atlanta, is more suspect than Atlanta, with an outrageous home-field advantage, with Chris Redman under center. For me, it's that simple. Philly, as the favorite, in Atlanta, without their best and most dangerous receiver? I hate that formula. Hate it.

Could Philly win? Yep. But Chris Redman is not the cupcake perhaps some people think he is. I think he'll play well enough to keep Atlanta close, and I think Jerrius Norwood will explode for at least one big play. Atlanta FTW!
Falcons over Eagles, 28-23

Detroit @ Cincinnati
The Line: Cincinnati by 13
Cincy ought to win. On the other hand, they just swept their division, they're in great shape for the post-season, and they've frankly never been here before. Who knows if this is the week they take their foot off the pedal?

Nah. Cincy's corners are great, their defense is mean and nasty, and they'll make enough big plays to win going away. Detroit is spunky, but I don't like them on the road.
Bengals over Lions, 31-13

New Orleans @ Washington
The Line: New Orleans by 9.5
Fuck New Orleans' perfect season. The Redskins are going to squeeze it in their fist and watch it ooze between their fingers like . . . ummm . . . mayonnaise, or something. Sure, the Saints are good, maybe even great. But the Redskins are like a race car in the red; they're ready to explode and wipe out whatever suckers are in the danger zone.

Redskins win!
Redskins over Saints, 27-23

Tampa Bay @ Carolina
The Line: Carolina by 6
Panthers win.
Panthers over Bucs, 20-14

St. Louis @ Chicago
The Line: Chicago by 9
Who cares?
Bears over Rams, 30-17

San Diego @ Cleveland
The Line: San Diego by 13
Long trip from San Diego to Cleveland. Long trip. Will it matter? Only in the margin of victory.
Chargers over Browns, 34-10

San Francisco @ Seattle
The Line: Even
I'm taking the Niners. They're a better team.
49ers over Seahawks, 24-17

Minnesota @ Arizona
The Line: Minnesota by 3.5
That's gotta burn the Cardinals. If they're healthy, this is a really intriguing match-up. They're not healthy, though. Kurt Warner is all woozy, and even if he plays, does anybody want to bank on post-concussion Kurt Warner? Remember how that worked out in New York? Every time he felt pressure, the ball came flying out and he went down like a sack of potatoes.

If Arizona wins, don't we have to talk about them as maybe one of the NFL's best 5 (or so) teams? Damn, I really wish they were healthy.
Vikings over Cardinals, 28-27

Dallas @ New York Giants
The Line: Dallas by 2.5
Hey, another great week 13 match-up! And this one is pretty much New York's season. They need this game. I need them to get it. I'm so, so ready for the Cowboys to collapse. I'm about as excited about that as I am about Christmas. I can't effing wait. It must start on Sunday.

And just to make sure it does happen, I'm picking the Cowboys.

FUCK YOU DALLAS!!
Cowboys over Giants, 45-3

New England @ Miami
The Line: New England by 3.5
Yeah, the Pats'll probably win.
Patriots over Dolphins, 35-20

Baltimore @ Green Bay
The Line: Green Bay by 3
Should be fun! I'll be rooting for the Packers.
Packers over Ravens, 27-17

That's it!

Go Skynards!

A Thanksgiving Feast of Sports Stuff!

2009-11-23T08:22:00.000-08:00

First, some general NBA observations;

I hate the Wizards. Seriously, this is my least favorite basketball team of all time. I hate every part of the organization and the entire team. There might be one guy on the entire team I wouldn't run over with my car if I had the opportunity . . . no, scratch that, I'm sure there isn't. How much do I hate the Wizards? Let me count the ways:

1. I hate Ernie Grunfeld. No GM in the NBA has so mastered the art of putting together a collection of overpaid mercenary scrubs. At no point in Grunfeld's not at all distinguished career has he been willing to put any effort into building a team that makes sense from the ground up. Let's start with his time in New York, where he took one of the game's easiest building blocks - a dominant center - and managed to squander his entire career by surrounding him with not-special mercenary veterans and did absolutely nothing in the draft to secure the future of the organization. From 1994 onward, the Knicks used their draft picks on Monty Williams and Charlie Ward in 1994, nobody in 1995, John Wallace, Walter McCarty, and Dontae Jones in 1996, John Thomas in 1997, Demarco Johnson and Sean Marks in 1998, and Frederic Weis and J.R. Koch in 1998. Is anybody surprised the Knicks spent the next decade embarrassing the game of basketball? In 1999, every player on the team except Patrick Ewing was brought in by Grunfeld. Here's that roster: Ewing, Latrell Sprewell, Allan Houston, Ward, Larry Johnson, Marcus Camby, Kurt Thomas, Chris Childs, John Wallace, etc., etc. It was a terrible, top-heavy roster headlined by guys at the wrong position with overlapping skill-sets. I hated that team.

In Milwaukee, he took over a team that already had its talent nucleus in place and did the following: added Lindsay Hunter, Mark Pope, Jerome Kersey, and Greg Foster in 2000; in 2001, he traded Scott Williams and a 1st round pick (Josh Smith) for Aleksander Radojevic and Kevin Willis, signed Anthony Mason's corpse, signed Greg Anthony's corpse, traded for Jamal Sampson, and drafted Marcus Haislip, Dan Gadzuric, and Flip Murray. That same year, he waived Aleksander Radojevic, for whom he'd traded a first round pick. In 2002, he traded Glenn Robinson for Tony Kukoc, Leon Smith, and a pick that turned into T.J. Ford. He then signed Mike Wilks, Kevin Ollie, Laron Profit, and Cedric Henderson, all of whom he waived that same year. He then traded Ray Allen, Flip Murray, Kevin Ollie and a first round draft pick for Desmond Mason and Gary Payton's washed up corpse. In 2003, he drafted (in addition to T.J. Ford) someone named Szymon Szewczyk and Keith Bogans, and then (because he had Gary Payton's corpse at point) he traded Sam Cassell and Earvin Johnson for Anthony Peeler and Joe Smith.

Someone show me a single good move he made in all those years as a General Manager. One time where he shrewdly evaluated talent or added a dynamic player to his own team. To me, it looks like he got fleeced over and over and literally never improved a team he was working for. The guy gave up two first round picks and Ray Allen in two years and only came away with Desmond Mason and Gary Payton. It's no coincidence that neither team has been worth a damn since Grunfeld came and went; he chased out the talented players, replaced them with scrubs, and did nothing in the draft.

Now he's in Washington, and he's accumulated one of the worst rosters in the entire sport. He overpaid for one of the NBA's most overrated stars and has assembled a roster that makes no sense whatsoever, top to bottom.

2. I hate Gilbert Arenas. I mean I really hate Gilbert Arenas. If you can't see everything that's wrong with him as a team's centerpiece, as a starting guard, as a teammate, and as a professional, there's something wrong with you. He has to be the single least efficient offensive focal point in the NBA. As a starting point guard, he makes no sense whatsoever, because he can't guard any opposing point faster than Chauncey Billups (if he had any interest in guarding anybody anyway), he's too small and apparently too important offensively to body up 2-guards, his need to operate with the ball in his hands without creating opportunities for his teammates bogs down the offense, and when his shot isn't falling, he can't do any single other thing well on the court. He'd make sense coming off the bench a la Jamal Crawford (who, incidentally, is the exact same player only healthier, more athletic, and significantly less annoying), because he's a streaky scorer without a natural position who could carry your second unit for a stretch or give a boost to your starters, but his ego would never allow that. He's an abysmal teammate; he hates sharing the ball on offense, he plays terrible, terrible team defense, he's far too goofy and selfish to ever be a leader off the court, and when things go south, he says things like "everyone seems to have hidden agendas around here", which is pretty much exactly what he said last week about the Wizards. And as for professionalism . . . I'm pretty sure we've covered that. He's a joke.

3. Caron Butler is a tough defender who can do a thing or two offensively, but any good team in the NBA would have him playing the Trevor Ariza role; defending perimeter scorers, slashing, spotting up for open threes, never handling the ball and never the focal point of the offense. This season, he's decided to be a big dog and take as many heisted, selfish, ill-advised one-on-one possessions as possible. Screw him.

4. Antawn Jamison has long been one of my least favorite players in the NBA. This guy puts up meaningless numbers and has convinced all the terrible fans around here that he's a pro's pro's pro, a warrior and a team leader and all other kinds of bullshit. First of all, the first time Antawn Jamison took a shot outside of 14 feet in an NBA game should have been the last time. He takes an incredible number of bad shots in every game he plays. Secondly, he's a terrible passer who generally kills the flow of the offense every time he touches the ball because it takes him 5 seconds to figure out what to do next. Third, he can't defend any position in the game of basketball. Jamison is another guy who would never start for a good NBA team. A tweener who takes irresponsible shots, scores in streaks, and can't defend? Sounds like a sixth or seventh man to me.

5. Flip Saunders is like that chronically single girl who's been at every party you've attended for the past few years. You know the one; slightly attractive, not much personality but laughs real loud and drinks a lot. You know, Good Time Sally. She's the girl you hook up with after you finally break up with the girl with whom you had no future but dated for too long anyway, but before you find the right girl and really fall in love. Good Time Sally will drink with you and your buddies, go to all the parties, be fun in bed, and generally hold down the fort and reaffirm your masculinity for a while while you recover your wits after an ugly situation, but we all know she's not the solution. Flip Saunders is not the solution for the Wizards. He can keep them afloat for now, while they try to make sense of this disasterous roster/salary cap situation. I say fuck that. Screw the salary cap. Screw the now. They need to dump every single turd on the roster, fire everyone in the front office, and start completely over from scratch.

6. Everyone else. Seriously. If I were in charge of this team today, there's not a single player I'd clutch tightly. I'd listen to any offer for any player. Do I think Andray Blache and JaVale McGee could be good players on a good team? Sure. They're the only two players I'd even consider keeping. I'd give Gilbert away for a steak sandwich. I'd take literally any expiring deal or 2-year deal in the NBA for Jamison, or any young player at all. Same with Butler. I'd pay double Nick Young's salary if the police would look the other way while I ran him over with my car. I'd trade Brendon Haywood for (I shit you not) a WNBA player. I would pay a team to take Brendon Haywood.

Chris Bosh, you are a turd. For a long time now, I've been waiting to say that. Chris Bosh is a turd. Any team that spends big money on him after this season deserves the contempt of their fans.

I was listening to Mike & Mike in the Morning on ESPN980 a few days ago, and Mike Greenburg said something off-hand to Mike Golic that struck a cord with me; he was talking about pro football players who have to deal with losing, and he made the off-hand comment that most of them had always been on the best teams growing up, and that they were always on the best teams because they were always the best players, and their teams were good because they were good. You know what? That's almost always true in sports. Right up until players get to the professional level, they're always on good teams because they're good enough to make their teams good. In some cases, it's because they're much bigger than the other kids. In most cases, they're smarter and more athletic and harder workers and bigger. When they get to the professional level, the math is a little different because lousy teams usually get the first crack at the best players, so usually the best guys in college take a few seasons to win at the professional level because they're surrounded by a culture of losing. After a certain point, though, special players rise up and start winning with whatever is around them. That time has come and gone for Chris Bosh. That team has had any number of different identities in the time he's been there, and he hasn't been able to make a single one of them into a winner. If he's good enough to be mentioned with LeBron James and Dwayne Wade (guys who are also free-agents after this season and who actually have won with nothing around them), he would have won by now. He can't even get into the playoffs, for crying out loud. We're talking about a young 7-foot forward with athleticism and range here, not Allen Iverson (who also won with nothing). If Chris Bosh is a winner, if he's a centerpiece, if he's a superstar, if he's even an All-Star, he would have elevated that team at least to .500 by now. Instead, you've got a 6-8 basketball team that hasn't won a playoff series since he's been there, with what we're supposed to believe is a bona-fide superstar headliner as their centerpiece. No. Chris Bosh is a turd. I'd pay more for Aaron Brooks, I swear to God.

Now, for some quick NFL picks (I missed the Thanksgiving games, sue me):

Indianapolis @ Houston
The Line: Indianapolis by 3.5
Indy is due. On the other hand, Houston is doomed. Gotta go with the undefeated team. Can't pick against 'em till they lose.
Colts over Texans, 28-27

Cleveland @ Cincinnati
The Line: Cincinnati by 13
Whatever Cleveland's defense is able to do to slow Cincinnati's offense won't matter, because Cincy's D is going to devour Cleveland's offense. Plus, the Bengals should be good and pissed off this week.
Bengals over Browns, 24-9

Chicago @ Minnesota
The Line: Minnesota by 11
Vikings win! If this is a close game, I will very surprised.
Vikings over Bears, 34-17

Washington @ Philadelphia
The Line: Philadelphia by 10
You know what's great? For ten straight quarters of football, the Redskins have been playing like a team with nothing to lose. The coaches aren't quite there, but on the field, I really feel like the players are loose and are leaving it all out there on the field. They've got some swagger. As some dude on ESPN980 pointed out this week, if they play like this the rest of the way, they could win 2 or 3 games down the stretch. I'd take it.

You know what's horribly depressing? That the Redskins' season has come to this.

Philly ought to win comfortably. They beat the Redskins about as soundly as they've been beaten this season, in Washington, weeks ago. Would I be surprised if the Redskins dominate this game from start to finish, on both sides of the ball, and win by 10-13 points? Actually, no. The Eagles are notorious front-runners, and they're more likely to look past a struggling opponent than any other team in the NFL. That, and the Redskins have looked good on both sides of the ball for, like I said, 10 straight quarters of football.

Still, I'm picking the home team.
Eagles over Redskins, 23-17

Miami @ Buffalo
The Line: Miami by 3
Going with the favorite.
Dolphins over Bills, 24-13

Arizona @ Tennessee
The Line: Tennessee by 2
I have not been keeping up very well with NFL news this week. Is Kurt Warner healthy? If he is, and he plays, and he's not doing the whole "Kurt Warner post-concussion meltdown" thing, the Cardinals ought to win, just by gunning their way past Tennessee's still overrated secondary. If not, Tennessee rolls.

Ummmm, he'll probably play, right? Fuck it, I'm taking the Cardinals.
Cardinals over Titans, 28-24

Seattle @ St. Louis
The Line: Seattle by 4
Fuck these teams straight to hell.
Rams over Seahawks, 13-10

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
The Line: Atlanta by 12
Falcons should cruise. We'll get a good look at the Tampa-2 under Raheem Morris this week.
Falcons over Bucs, 31-14

Carolina @ New York Jets
The Line: New York Jets by 3.5
Panthers win. Sanchez continues to flail.
Panthers over Jets, 20-17

Jacksonville @ San Francisco
The Line: San Francisco by 3
San Fran's formula for winning should have been so incredibly simple after they jumped out to that good start this season: pound the ball, limit turnovers, play aggressive defense, win every other game. They'd have won 9,10, or even 11 games that way. Instead, they started flailing around offensively and their defense went to shit. Why? Who knows. I know this much, though: fuck the 49ers.
Jaguars over 49ers, 23-21

Kansas City @ San Diego
The Line: San Diego by 13.5
Chargers win.
Chargers over Chiefs, 41-21

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 7.5
I don't have the first goddamn clue. Baltimore has to win. If Dennis Dixon leads the Steelers to victory over the Ravens in Baltimore, well, FUCK the Ravens.
Ravens over Steelers, 24-14

New England @ New Orleans
The Line: New Orleans by 2
There's one way for New Orleans to win this game: score a lot of points, play from ahead, and turn Tom Brady over at least once in the second half. If they are able to play from ahead, score often, and turn him over in the second half, they'll win.

I think they'll do it.
Saints over Patriots, 38-33

That's all I've got. I thought I had more, but I wrote this bitch over the course of like 6 days, and a lot came and went in that time. Ah well. Oh, right, I think I had a week 11 recap planned. Well fuck that.

Go Skynards!

Week 6 in Review, Plus Week 7 Picks

2009-10-24T07:20:00.000-07:00

I didn't watch even remotely enough football on Sunday to do any kind of proper re-cap of the Week 6 games. To be honest, I couldn't even tell you most of the match-ups, let alone what actually took place in the games. There are a few reasons; I didn't do a picks post, so I wasn't as aware of the match-ups as I usually am; the Redskins completely imploded, which took the taste out of my mouth for NFL football pretty much all Sunday; and I was at the Redskins game, celebrating both my wife's birthday and our 5th Anniversary. What a joyous celebration that was; next year, I'll take it a step further and hang myself.

So, instead of doing a full NFL re-cap, I'm just going to ramble and wander a bit on the topic of the Redskins.

Chiefs over Redskins, 14-6
(I did not make any picks in Week 6)
I purchased my tickets on StubHub Friday evening. I had a hunch good seats could be had for this game for relatively cheap, especially at the last minute. See, it had been raining and the weather was absolutely dismal in the last few days of the work-week, so I figured there wouldn't be a whole lot of interest in tickets for an outdoor game. Second of all, it's a non-division game, against a team with very little local following. Third (and I can't stress this enough), Redskins fans are about as disillusioned and disgusted by the current state of their franchise as they've ever been, and in this economy, with these ticket prices, in a stadium that large, well, you do the math.

So we wound up with 50-yard line aisle seats about 24 rows back from the field, about 8 rows in front of the owners box. If the crowd had been a bit smaller, we would have heard Dan Snyder's conversation in the box throughout the game. I paid about $80 a piece for those tickets, which makes them officially not cheap, but compared to their regular prices, that's an unbelievable bargain. I was feeling pretty good about this, especially when the weather report had the rain coming to a stop about 40 minutes before kick-off. Somehow, we'd come away with nearly perfect seats on the home half of the stadium for what should have been a get-healthy win, and the weather was turning our way.

Stupidly, we left for the stadium on time but with only about $8 in singles stuffed into our collective pockets. That's a problem, because parking at FedEx Field is ridiculously expensive, and if you don't already have parking passes, you must have cash to pay for parking within (I shit you not) about 15 miles of the stadium. And we're not talking chump change, here; I wasn't the guy with $8 who needed $15. I was the guy with $8 who needed at least $35, and that was for an off-brand parking lot manned by shady Ethiopians, where I'd have to find a spot on a big, grassy hill ridiculously ill-suited to parking for cars smaller than a Hummer.

Of course, this ain't Disney World, which means the signage and flow of the whole thing is confusing as all hell. You're basically on top of the stadium before you realize you need to quadruple your cash on hand in order to park, by which time it is virtually impossible to get turned around and headed back towards civilization, which is roughly a billion light years away and is similarly inadequately signed. I needed a shady Ethiopian to halt no fewer than four lanes of traffic and put his life in immediate mortal peril so we could access some gravelly off-shoot, which may or may not have led directly to The Blair Witch Project, but had the happy distinction of, at some point, at least leading off of Redskins' property. Sometime later, we happened upon the real world, found a gas station with an ATM, and had the appropriate amount of cash in our pockets to then return to the stadium and enjoy the game. Of course, there's no way back to the stadium from civilization (why should there be?). Did I break about 15 different laws just to get back in the neighborhood of the stadium? You bet.

Once you park, however, it's a quick little walk over to FedEx Field, and FedEx is actually a fairly easy place to navigate, even with construction fences guarding what looked like a modest refurbishment to the exterior. We found our tickets, walked most of the wrong way around the stadium to find our section, then found our seats (or rather, the nearest set of unoccupied seats in the section, which turned out to be significantly better than the ones I'd purchased). All in all, we missed a drive for each team and a Clinton Portis fumble. All was well.

Now, I've known this for a while, from listening to Redskins radio and occasionally reading and frequenting Redskins forums and chats, but experiencing it in person is a bit different; Redskins fans are unanimously furious about the state of their team. And there's something different, too, about experiencing that anger in person, at the stadium, right next to the owner, surrounded by normal (looking) folks in Redskins beanies and scarves, when you've just forked over more than $200 (with tax) for the privilege of watching your home team suck and die; it feels a thousand times more justified when you're there at the source. When I hear it on the radio, I almost always just flip the channel. In general, I have no patience for entitled sports fans and their bitching. On the internet, on television, and on the radio, I have uninterrupted contempt for angry asshole Redskins fans. At the stadium, though, it was a completely different experience. Suddenly, I was connected to the mechanism that ties fans directly to their team, and the connection brought with it a whole new range of feelings about this franchise. When you're there, especially if you're worth a damn, you take ownership over your role in helping the home team. You stand up and scream yourself hoarse on third downs, you wave your arms to the crowd, you applaud the positives, you try to do your best to reign in the clueless fans around you who want to yell and clap when the offense is on the field. You're interacting with the team, with the game, and you've paid handsomely for the right. It's the payment part, obviously, that brings home the connection, though. Sports fans pour untold millions, or even billions, of dollars into their teams. We spend our entire lives caring passionately about them. In many cases, those teams become a strong part of the local culture and a tradition that is carried between generations. Sitting in that stadium on a cold, windy, awful-looking Sunday afternoon, the history and silly-yet-significant tradition of the Washington Redskins and their link to this area were hammering me from all angles.

For the first time in maybe my whole life, I now have a feeling of righteous anger and, yes, entitlement regarding the Washington Redskins. Dammit, Skins fans paid for that stadium. We're paying for the players. We're buying the merchandise. We're pouring our guts out for home dates. We're engendering this passion in the next generation of Redskins fans, ensuring the team remains profitable well off into the future. Ridiculously, we hold ourselves accountable as fans for our level of commitment. I'm sorry, but that buys us something. It does. Owners, players, coaches, PR people . . . they owe us something. We are the lifeblood of their endeavor, and it's our tradition they're using to rake in their fortunes. When every player and coach and owner and executive, everyone associated with this team is long dead and forgotten, there will still be a strong culture and tradition surrounding the Washington football team, just as they'll still be blowing up paper mache sculptures for Las Falles in Valencia 200 years from now. Are there just a few select people who make those sculptures, and fewer still who organize and run the festival? Sure. But the tradition does not belong to them. It belongs less to them than it does to the viewer, because without the viewer . . . well, you get the point.

So I'm sitting there in the stadium, taking it all in, and around me on all sides are incredibly angry people. Many of them are drunk beyond the ability to regulate their behavior, but their anger is real and serious. It's riot anger. And yes, they're angry at Jason Campbell. When he bounces an out-route or checks down on 3rd and long, their anger turns into either sarcasm or rage. They're angry at Jim Zorn, but generally in a less certain, less vocal way. They hate the playcalling, but they know enough to know they can't call an NFL game, so they're a bit more quiet about it. They're angry at DeAngelo Hall for being a lousy cover corner who can't tackle for shit and looks like he's tiptoeing around out there. They're quite angry at Albert Haynesworth. If his hand goes anywhere remotely near his hips at any point during a game, they're all over him like flies on shit. But there's something loving about the anger they direct towards the field, as strange and gay as that sounds. They pick on their players and coaches, but they'll applaud gratefully when and if they produce on the field. Ultimately, rational Redskins fans want their team to do well and win, and they'll cheer just about anybody out there who is honestly working towards those goals.

The anger directed towards the owner's box, however, is a completely different story. I'm not kidding when I report that there were dozens if not hundreds of fans around us, just in the lower bowl, who spent no more than a tenth of their time watching or caring about the game at all, the rest of the time spent shrieking in unrestrained rage at Daniel Snyder and Vinny Cerrato. One guy to our left might have turned away from the owner's box for 30 seconds in the entire game. Redskins fans have long passed the point of distrusting the owner, passed the point of no longer affording him the benefit of the doubt, long passed the point of giving him points for wanting to win and being willing to spend a lot of money to win. Redskins fans have rounded the bend on being willing to forgive Snyder for all the disorganization and stupidity and failure that has defined his ownership of the Redskins, and are quickly closing in on the point where some one or some group actually attempts an assassination. I wish I were kidding. If a full-blown riot had broken out inside FedEx field, complete with people hurling burning debris into the owners box and literally attempting to kill Snyder, I would not have been surprised at all. Horrified, but not surprised.

There is nothing justifiable or defensible about homicidal rage, but tradition is tradition, and the same passion that makes the Redskins such an incredibly profitable franchise also makes their fans deranged, volatile lunatics. Up to the point where Dan Snyder's personal safety is at risk, I can defend this; who the hell is this guy to fuck around and experiment with our proud tradition? We were here before him, and we'll be here after him, and all he's doing is molesting a proud piece of our local culture, poisoning and fracturing and maiming it and making it something to be ashamed of. What else is there? Right or wrong, for better or worse, this team is a part of our culture, and this guy is making it an embarrassment.

The first quarter progressed pretty much the way the last few have for the Redskins; they barely held onto the ball at all, the defense generated a promising pass-rush but was inevitably let down over and over again by the secondary, and though neither team scored, the Redskins spent the whole time backed up on the losing end of the battle for field position. Nobody was encouraged at all.

The second quarter was even worse. The offense was completely out of synch. The Redskins have absolutely nothing working on offense. Every passing play is a disaster. The offensive line is about as effective at slowing the rush as an inch and a half of cool water, Clinton Portis can't make anybody miss and has no explosion whatsoever. Washington's receivers have the worst body language I've ever seen on a football field. They run up to their break, then they sag and just sort of loaf around; they're not expecting the ball and they know they aren't open. Jason Campbell looks totally rattled in the pocket, and his mechanics are getting worse every Sunday. On the opposite side of the ball, Washington's defense in the second quarter started to sag a bit, and the Chiefs found themselves repeatedly in scoring position or starting drives near midfield and only turning the ball over when wide-open receivers dropped well-thrown balls. I think everyone in the stadium knew where this one was headed by the time Jim Zorn threw away three timeouts in 15 yards and blew any chance the Redskins had of scoring before halftime.

When Campbell's desperation heave was intercepted at the one to end the half, the boo-birds came out in full force. In a matter of seconds, however, they were turned away from the field and up towards the owner's box. Seconds later, boos turned into a chant of "Sell the team", which lasted a good 5 minutes and brought nervous smiles to the faces of the local broadcast team, uncomfortably seated a mere 10 feet over from the owner himself.

I have a rule about not booing the home team. I will not boo the players on the field, not as long as they're wearing my team's uniform. I will sometimes boo a coach, but only for a bad decision. For instance, I'll give a little grief for punting on 4th and 1 from inside your opponent's territory, but it's not "I hate you, coach, go to hell!" It's about expressing my light-hearted disapproval of the decision. On the other hand, I have no qualms whatsoever about booing Daniel Snyder and Vinny Cerrato, so I was in there leading the section. I can really project when I want to, and I was seated close enough to the box and high enough up that, when I waved my arms for more noise, I got more noise, and there's no way Snyder didn't hear my voice ringing above the chorus. I like to think about that, about speaking directly to this guy in a loud, angry voice. I did it, even if he was cowering in the back of his box, where we could only see the top of his head. Despite the awfulness of the first half, we fans were in pretty high spirits headed into the second half. We'd had a talk with the owner, expressed our feelings for him as directly as possible, experienced a moment of solidarity.

Then, Todd Collins came out with Washington's offense, and I stopped enjoying the game at all.

You saw the rest. The exhausted fans left in the stadium cheered sarcastically at the sight of him, but expressed to each other their pity of Campbell for ultimately bearing the worst part of the responsibility for the team's awfulness. Few if any in that stadium thought Collins gave the Redskins a better chance at a victory, but were energized by the sight of something different out there. I was not among them in that regard. I was horribly depressed, to the point of not really even being able to speak about it. Collins played terribly, Washington continued to suck, and eventually the better team won.

In the days since that game, Zorn has had play-calling duties taken from him by his utterly clueless bosses. Jason Campbell has been reinserted as the starting quarterback. A new left tackle has been signed from the scrap heap. Vinny Cerrato finally publicly asserted Zorn's job security through the rest of the season, but somehow managed to emasculate him further and embarrass the team further in the process. There's also talk of prying Joe Gibbs out of retirement for a Bill Parcell's-like management role with the franchise.

Here's where I stand with these Washington Redskins; the entire team needs to be torn down, sold off for parts, and rebuilt. There might be 5 guys on the whole team worth keeping through that rebuilding; Brian Orakpo, Jeremy Jarmon, Chris Cooley, Chris Horton, and one or two of the sophomore receiving options. Everybody else either must go, will go, or should go. Jason Campbell deserves better than this, so he's gone. Nobody on the offensive line is worth paying a veteran's salary. The veteran receivers offer no value to this team. Portis is completely washed up, and he doesn't have a valuable replacement anywhere on this roster. Every member of the defensive line not named Orakpo or Jarmon should go. London Fletcher deserves better, he should go, and there are no other linebackers worth holding onto, but I'd take a flyer on keeping Chris Wilson. Laron Landry is a bust. The corners are awful, but I'd see about keeping Justin Tryon and Kevin Barnes, because they're young, fast, and cheap. The entire rest of the organization should be blown all the way up and rebuilt from the bottom, complete with 3-4 years of bad, losing football and lots of draft picks.

In the meantime, I cannot root for this team. I can't. If Jason Campbell is in the game, I'll root for their passing game. I'll root for their young players and good guys the same way I do with any other NFL team. I can no longer support this franchise in its current state. To support them is to indirectly support their abysmal leadership structure and systemic dysfunction, and I can't do that. It puts me in a bad mood and keeps me there, and nobody needs that. I feel sad about detaching myself from this part of Washington's local culture. Once upon a time, I watched Redskins football with my mom and dad on Sundays, with uncles and stepdads and grandparents and friends and siblings. I shook the hands of Redskins in parking lots and grocery stores and Blockbusters, imagined I could combine the unique talents of Art Monk and Gary Clark and become another member of the Posse. It's always silly, it has never been anything but silly, but it used to feel good. Why would anybody keep something silly like this in their lives if it just makes them feel rotten and angry for half the year?

So there it is. I'm still a football fan. I just no longer count myself among the Redskins' passionate fan-base. I don't care enough to be as angry as I was on Sunday, and I'm not stupid enough to ignore the shameful, disgraceful dysfunction of this franchise.

I'll put up some picks for Week 7 later on today. I'm still interested in the 2009 season, but I'm much, much more interested in the off-season, the draft, and the faint hope that some sort of light will emerge at the end of the tunnel for this wayward, disaster of a team.

Peace!

Week 5 in Review

2009-10-14T14:07:00.000-07:00

I'm going to have to keep this brief. I don't have a whole shit-load of time for this re-cap.

And with that rousing introduction, off we go!

Bengals over Ravens, 17-14
My Pick: Ravens over Bengals, 27-17
Okay, officially, the Bengals are real. And I just have to bump the Ravens down the rankings a bit. I still think they're a top 6 or 7 team, but they've lost on consecutive weeks and both their offense and defense have looked less dominant each of the last two weeks.

Panthers over Redskins, 20-17
My Pick: Panthers over Redskins, 20-17
Ding ding ding ding ding!

Nailed it, bitches.

Look, I don't care if they interpreted the rule correctly; the officials hosed the Redskins on Sunday. That rule is absolutely absurd, and the person who wrote it should be dipped into boiling oil until their insides erupt out of their eye-sockets.

The playcalling was much, much better on Sunday (except for that motherfucking stretch run from the two yard line. Every time the Redskins call that in short-yardage situations, I want to tear my angry face off and mail it to Redskins Park), and the defense kept the pressure on for most of the afternoon. Ultimately, it was terrible pass protection, uneven run blocking, and one horrific rule that doomed the Skins. Like I said, they really aren't ready to beat competent teams on the road.

Browns over Bills, 6-3
My Pick: Bills over Browns, with a real NFL football score. See, I thought this was a FOOTBALL game.
Turns out, some guy on the Browns baseball team is in some kind of 2-17 slump. Bummer.

Steelers over Lions, 28-20
My Pick: Steelers over Lions, 31-24
I said they'd cover.

Cowboys over Chiefs, 26-20
My Pick: Cowboys over Chiefs, 20-14
I'm not at all afraid of the Cowboys. The Chiefs had every opportunity to win this game, and in fact should have gotten the victory. For whatever reason, they couldn't tackle Miles Austin for shit. How bad do you think Roy Williams feels right now? Miles Austin was a starter for one week and he caught 10 balls for 250 yards. Roy Williams has 11 catches for 214 yards on the SEASON. What an overrated bum.

Vikins over Rams, 38-10
My Pick: Vikins over Rams, 28-10
You know, the bottom part of the NFL is really, really terrible this season.

Giants over Raiders, 44-7
My Pick: Giants over Raiders, 27-6
Eli Manning played, and played well, but they really didn't need him out there at all. David Carr did fine as a fill-in, and they would have won handily even if he'd started. Hell, they would have won if David Hasselhoff had started. There's only one person on Earth the Giants couldn't have won with, and that person started at quarterback for the Oakland Raiders.

Eagles over Bucs, 33-14
My Pick: Eagles over Bucs, 23-16
Yes, I scoffed at the idea of the Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys being favored by a combined 38.5 points. Turned out the Giants alone won by 37 points, then the Eagles won by 19. Kinda makes it even worse that I'm a Redskins fan.

Falcons over 49ers, 45-10
My Pick: 49ers over Falcons, 17-14
You know, I'm happy with this result. I still think the 49ers are a good team, but I'm happy to know the Falcons are that much better than the 49ers.

Cardinals over Texans, 28-21
My Pick: Cardinals over Texans, 35-31
Meh. These teams bore me to death.

Broncos over Patriots, 20-17
My Pick: Broncos over Patriots, 26-23
Am I the shit or what? I had a good weekend, actually. I nailed the spirit of 8 games in week 5. I picked an exact score, and was within a point of picking the exact spread of 5 different games. This was only my second best pick, actually.

Seahawks over Jaguars, 41-0
My Pick: Jaguars over Seahawks, 27-20
This was my worst, by far. Jacksonville had no business being out there.

Colts over Titans, 31-9
My Pick: Colts over Titans, 24-20
Wow, how about a no-show from Tennessee? Of all the things one might guess at or expect from this team and franchise, a no-show in a division game is not one of them. Count the Titans ALL THE WAY OUT for 2009. They might win 4 games.

Dolphins over Jets, 31-27
My Pick: Dolphins over Jets, 19-17
This was my best pick. I know I was closer on the final score in the Denver game, but giving a 3-1 road team a 3 point spread over a 4-0 home team is like begging for an Upset Special pick. This was a desperately needed win by a still-feisty Miami team, and they earned it. First of all, it was every bit the exciting contest I'd hoped for, and second of all, it makes the AFC East suddenly a whole lot more interesting. As far as I'm concerned, the Dolphins are still in that thing. Chad Henne is playing his ass off, and the Wildcat is still doing the job for the Dolphins. That's all great news for football fans; the 2009 NFL season will be a LOT more entertaining with a competitive Miami team hanging around.

That's all for Week 5. I'll have picks up for Week 6 hopefully before Sunday.

Peace!

Week 5 Quick Pix

2009-10-11T07:44:00.001-07:00

Here we go!

Cincinnati @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 8.5
This could be a good game. I find myself hoping Cincinnati is for real these days. Wouldn't that be something? A rejuvenated Bengals team with the same offensive core (more or less), headed by the same bumbling, overmatched head-coach, that's a good story, isn't it?

Ravens win!
Ravens over Bengals, 27-17

Washington @ Carolina
The Line: Carolina by 4
I hate to do it, but I have to. There's no reason to pick the Redskins. Carolina's coming off a bye in a must, must, MUST win situation, against a Redskins team they don't fear at all. I'm not sure Washington is ready to beat any competent team on the road. In fact, I'm sure they're not ready for that.

I hope they play well and score points. If they win, that'll be like a bonus.
Panthers over Redskins, 20-17

Cleveland @ Buffalo
The Line: Buffalo by 6
Buffalo is a lousy team to be getting a 6 point spread over anybody. Still, I guess they'll win. How could anyone pretend to care about this game?
Bills over Browns, 23-13

Pittsburgh @ Detroit
The Line: Pittsburgh by 10.5
I don't know. I mean, I think Pittsburgh will win, but I also kinda think Detroit will cover.
Steelers over Lions, 31-24

Dallas @ Kansas City
The Line: Dallas by 7.5
Dallas, without Roy Williams and Felix Jones, by 7.5 over the dysfunctional Chiefs . . . hmmm . . . tough one. I don't know . . . I guess nothing would surprise me. I'm picking the favorite, but this could be an upset.
Cowboys over Chiefs, 20-14

Minnesota @ St. Louis
The Line: Minnesota by 10.5
Minnesota wins and covers.
Vikings over Rams, 28-10

Oakland @ New York Giants
The Line: New York Giants by 15.5
I'd like to watch this one, to see how cleanly the Giants dispatch the miserable Raiders. I really do enjoy the hell out of watching these Giants, NFC East rivalries be damned.
Giants over Raiders, 27-6

Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia
The Line: Philadelphia by 15.5
Gamblers and book-makers are still loving the NFC East a bit too much. The banged up Giants, banged up Eagles, and banged up road Cowboys by a combined 38.5 points? Yeah, they might do it, but the Eagles and Cowboys are both vastly overrated right now. This game could be a close one. I think the Eagles will win, but I don't think they're all that great.
Eagles over Bucs, 23-16

Atlanta @ San Francisco
The Line: San Francisco by 2.5
Love this game. Love it. Can't wait. And I really can't pick it. If I had a quarter, I'd be flipping it right now.
49ers over Falcons, 17-14

Houston @ Arizona
The Line: Arizona by 5.5
Honestly, I don't care at all about this game. These teams have a lot to prove.
Cardinals over Texans, 35-31

New England @ Denver
The Line: New England by 3
New England by 3? Really? Wow, you almost have to make this an Upset Special.

Upset Special!
Broncos over Patriots, 26-23

Jacksonville @ Seattle
The Line: Seattle by 1.5
Know what? I'm taking the Jags.
Jaguars over Seahawks, 27-20

Indianapolis @ Tennessee
The Line: Indianapolis by 4
It pains me to pick the Titans to go 0-5. As much as I shot down their chances of making the playoffs in 2009, I still do like this team and want them to succeed. 0-5 is such a horrible, brutal thud, especially for a veteran team with such a professional head coach.

Ah well.
Colts over Titans, 24-20

New York Jets @ Miami
The Line: New York Jets by 2
Love this game, too. Hopefully, you're looking at a tight, fiercely competitive Monday nighter in the making here. Again, nothing would surprise me. In fact, I'm taking the home team. Wacky, right?
Dolphins over Jets, 19-17

I'll try to pound out a re-cap next week, or at least an all-in-one.

Go Skynards!

Week 4 Re-Cap

2009-10-08T10:26:00.000-07:00

I didn't do Week 4 picks, but by God, I'm doing a re-cap. I have to do something with this blog, for crying out loud.

Giants over Chiefs, 27-16
I don't know much about what happened in this game, other than that it was another precision kill by the Giants, and Eli has plantar fasciitis. Oh, and the Chiefs stink.

Bengals over Browns, 23-20
The Browns are terrible, but I'm not going to downplay the significance of a division road victory, especially for a team like the Bengals, who were such garbage the last two seasons. The Browns showed life in this game, and the Bengals responded, and for all the world, it looked like the better team won the game. That's a quality victory.

Texans over Raiders, 29-6
This was just one of several dismal blow-outs on Sunday. In every case, the better team won, which is a nice change from weeks and seasons past. Steve Slaton had a nice game, but the Texans hardly looked like world-beaters. And I feel this has to be said, by anyone commenting on this game: Jamarcus Russell is one of the worst players to start at quarterback in NFL history.

Bears over Lions, 48-24
The Lions are on the way. They really are. They were quite frisky in the first half of this one, until their brutally bad defense finally collapsed down the stretch. At least they made the Bears work for a bit. And it was nice to see Matt Forte break out a little bit, even if he looked slower than Clinton Portis on a few runs.

Colts over Seahawks, 34-17
Seneca Wallace is really a fascinating back-up quarterback. He's exactly good enough to keep a good team winning, and exactly not good enough to keep a bad team competitive. He will move the chains, even against solid defenses, but he'll miss just enough and leave just enough big plays on the table. The Seahawks are a bad team. If they were a good team, they could win with Seneca Wallace. They're a bad team, so they can't even compete with him.

As for the Colts, this was another efficient stomping. Good job.

Jaguars over Titans, 37-17
Beyond even a shadow of doubt, this was the weekend's biggest surprise. The Jaguars didn't just pound the shit out of the Titans in Jacksonville, they were clearly the better team. The Titans never, at any point, had any response whatsoever to Jacksonville's offense, and that's a problem, because Jacksonville doesn't have much of an offense, at all. It could not be more plain that several of Tennessee's secondary players are not up to the task of defending without the pass rush previously provided by Albert Haynesworth. David Garrard completed at least one pass to 8 different receivers, and at least 3 passes to 6. And we're not talking about a Titans' defense that can't generate any pass rush, here; they sacked Garrard twice and generally forced him to move around in and out of the pocket. The Titans can't cover.

And offensively, they just don't have it. Chris Johnson is their only weapon, and he can't do it all alone. Kerry Collins is a caretaker, he's not winning games for this team, not when they need to put up consistent points.

Patriots over Ravens, 27-21
This was a great game. It's worth noting that the Ravens probably should have won, and that would have been one hell of a statement in the AFC. I still think they're the second best team in football. Mark Clayton had a boner of a fourth quarter, otherwise the Ravens are 4-0 today with road wins over San Diego and New England.

And on the other side of that, this was a good win for the Patriots. They're obviously no longer the juggernaut of 2007, so they'll need to win a few games like this to win their division and have a chance at one of the top spots in the AFC. They just need to carry over their offensive execution from this game into the upcoming weeks.

Redskins over Bucs, 16-13
Perhaps the most entertaining of all the incredibly ugly games played in the last few seasons. Did either team do anything to suggest that they can play like a real NFL team? Nope. In fact, both teams looked like disorganized crap almost all afternoon. But somehow, it made for a really exciting viewing experience.

A few things were discouraging about the Redskins:

1. Early on, the offensive line was absolutely terrible, and you know why? They couldn't stop a bull-rush for crap. On the sack that led to a fumble on their opening drive, Stephon Heyer was unprepared for a bull-rush, and was pushed right back into Jason Campbell's face. As the game wore on, Tampa's defenders wore down and couldn't bring themselves to bull-rush Washington's tackles, and so the pass-rush improved. Anybody else think every team left on Washington's schedule sat up a little when they saw those first few passing plays?

2. Jason Campbell has got to do a few things better. First, he's got to step up in the pocket faster. He takes forever to step up into the pocket. There's no other way to say it. He stays too long at the end of his drop before he starts moving forward. Second, he's got to stop pumping and moving the ball when his first receiver isn't open. It slows down his progressions and it delays the release of the ball to his secondary receivers. Third, he needs to learn to sense pressure earlier in his drop and get the ball out more quickly when it's coming. Sometimes, you don't need to get to the back of your drop, set, step forward, and then throw. Sometimes, you know the pressure's coming, where it's coming from, and where your hot read is, and you just fire the ball out from whatever strange arm angle is available. Jason, you've got a cannon arm, use it! The best thing he did all game was come forward in the pocket, not set his feet, and fire a touchdown strike to Chris Cooley.

3. Malcolm Kelly is not playing like a real number two receiver, not at all. On the first pick, he ran his route too deep and didn't have a clue how the defense was set up. He should have been shallow of the linebacker. It wasn't a great throw, but by running it deeper than it needed to be, he gave the corner a chance to break and allowed the linebacker to squeeze the passing lane, which led to a more difficult throw for his quarterback. On the second pick, he just failed. For two seasons now, I've been moaning about Washington's lack of tall, long, athletic, playmaking receivers who could go up and fight for a ball in one on one coverage. Kelly had one on one coverage with a cornerback, and had a 50-50 ball thrown his way. He put no pressure whatsoever on Talib, and then misplayed the ball in the air. The thing is, that's the ball you want if you're Malcolm Kelly; a fade route up the sidelines in one on one coverage. Just make a play! Randy Moss has made his entire career out of those balls.
I think the Redskins need to find a way to get him involved and in a rhythm earlier in the game. There's a way to do it without disturbing the flow of the offense. I'd like to see them run a bubble screen to him in the first quarter against Carolina, the kind of play where he can use his size and strength to get a few yards and get dirty.

On the other hand, I was encouraged quite a bit by a few things I saw from the ol' Skynards:

1. The pass rush was much, much better than it's been in two years. I know Tampa's offensive line isn't blowing anybody's hair back, but the Skins sacked Josh Johnson three times, and if his name is Jake Delhomme (for instance), that number could have easily been 6. He escaped any number of sure sacks with his agility and speed. If the Redskins can consistently generate that kind of pressure this season, a lot of pocket passers are going to get pounded, and I can't wait.

2. Campbell bounced back with a vengeance after his atrocious first half. He plays so, so much better after he gets the hell out of the pocket and makes a play with his legs. It loosens him up and makes him feel strong out there, like he's contributing. If I'm Jim Zorn (or Sherman Lewis, even), I'm dialing up an early quarterback draw in every game left on the schedule. The fact is, Jason Campbell is not the most confident quarterback in the NFL, not at all. I agree with Coach Zorn that he needs rhythm to get going, and I think a fast way to get him into the flow of the game is to get him to make a play with his legs. People may not know this about him, but he's a good athlete, he can run. He's like an elephant; he may start slow, but once he gets going, he's a bit of a load.

3. Not only did the Redskins really pick up their run blocking down the stretch, but Clinton Portis actually tried something different from his usual stumble-into-the-hole-and-crawl-for-4-yards move; he made some cuts and then actually tried staying on his feet for a few seconds. Portis has almost nothing left in terms of speed, but he's patient and crafty, and if he runs with that much determination the rest of the way, they'll have a much more balanced offense.

I'm going to pick Carolina over the Skins on Sunday, but I had a lot of fun watching this game and was pleased with the result.

Saints over Jets, 24-10
Hey, good win for the Saints. They did it with defense this time. And somehow, Darren Sharper remains one of the NFL's most dangerous (and underrated) defensive backs.

Dolphins over Bills, 38-10
The Bills are garbage. They play like crap, and they routinely find ways to lose as brutally as possible to their division foes.

49ers over Rams, 35-0
I couldn't be happier that the 49ers are not on Washington's schedule in 2009.

Broncos over Cowboys, 17-10
I would not have picked the Broncos to win this game, even if the Cowboys had played without 2 of their starting offensive linemen. I was shocked, shocked(!) to watch this unfold. The Cowboys are so eerily similar to the Redskins right now, it's almost uncomfortable to watch. They have the ability to look good all over the field, and yet in none of the ways that actually matter to winning a football game. They have the ability to put up decent stats, yet they can't translate those stats into winning football. They stall for odd reasons offensively, and their playcalling is puzzling at best for long stretches of every game. They seem to be trying to do something other than score points on offense, usually because of the way they call plays, and it has the frustrating effect of leaving them screwed on pretty much all meaningful downs. Have you ever noticed that about the Redskins? They seem to have good plays to pick up a first down on, umm, first down, and good plays to pick up a first down on second down, but no good plays for third down, and no good redzone plays. The Cowboys are kinda the same; they've got lots of good looking plays, especially in their passing game, but they always seem to stall out on an important third down right when they're getting some momentum, and it's usually because they ran an awkward, badly timed, puzzling play on third and medium.

Good teams have good plays for important downs. Lousy teams have lots of good plays, but nothing especially good for those important downs. Remember how the Super Bowl Broncos of John Elway and Mike Shanahan beat the Sprint Right Option to death on third down and around the goalline? Ever notice how the 07 Patriots always hurried to the line on short yardage downs and either hit the quick inside hitch to Welker or had Brady just plunge forward on a silent count? When you're good, all you really need to work on are those important plays, because the rest of your offense is already solid. The Cowboys don't seem like they're there yet, probably because they spent an entire offseason trying to figure out if Tony Romo could be a top-tier quarterback without Terrell Owens.

Steelers over Chargers, 38-28
I am happy with this result.

Vikings over Packers, 30-23
Less so with this one. Brett Favre played an exceptional game, in the truest sense of the word.

That's it for the re-cap. I'll have some picks up in time for the 1pm games. Keep watching, y'all!

Peace.

Another Two-In-One

2009-09-25T16:07:00.001-07:00

Sorry about that. This week it was the flu, and man was it a bitch. It's been years since I last had the flu, and so help me God, it'll be years before I endure it again. If I have to live henceforth in a cave in Antarctica, I will not have the flu again in this lifetime.

At any rate, no way was I going to do a re-cap earlier in the week, and now I don't have time for separate posts.

As before, re-cap first:

Raiders over Chiefs, 13-10
My Pick: Chiefs over Raiders, 24-21
Much is being made of Todd Haley's performance on the sidelines in this one. Jamarcus Russell, too, was abysmal. What a depressing fart-bag the AFC West has turned into. It's becoming quite clear how terribly wrong about Todd Haley I may have been. Time will tell. I think we can say, for sure, that he's got a long way to go before he becomes a serviceable NFL head coach.

Texans over Titans, 34-31
My Pick: Titans over Texans, 28-23
That's more like it. Houston should be scoring points like this week in and week out. And it's looking more and more like I was spot on in my preseason evaluation of the 2009 Titans. They're like a refrigerator full of 3 year old condiment bottles, old, clouded Tupperwares jammed way in the back, a handful of ancient cups of yogurt, and at least one fully separated bottle of what used to be milk. Then sitting up front, is a delicious hunk of chocolate cake, made yesterday. You know that cake'll be scrumptious, but that's about it. And the longer that cake sits in there with the detritus, the faster it's going to turn into a foul, molded, piece of shit.

Chris Johnson is the cake. Kerry Collins is the milk.

Jets over Patriots, 16-9
My Pick: Jets over Patriots, 27-24
That's right. I picked it.

Bengals over Packers, 31-24
My Pick: Packers over Bengals, 19-13
Yuk. Boo on the motherfucking Packers for suckering me in again in 2009. If the Bengals don't win 10 games in 2009, the Packers owe it to me and their fans to go sit on a grenade.

Vikings over Lions, 27-13
My Pick: Vikings over Lions, 30-17
Yep.

Saints over Eagles, 48-22
My Pick: Saints over Eagles, 27-17
Typical of the Iggles to pull an apathetic no-show when a key offensive starter is out. They still have that flaw in them, floating around. Don't be surprised if the Eagles flake out any number of times this season.

Falcons over Panthers, 28-20
My Pick: Falcons over Panthers, 34-21
Man, were there any memorable games or performances in week 2?

Redskins over Rams, 9-7
My Pick: Redskins over Rams, 34-16
So the Redskins didn't score in the redzone.

Here's a list of things I'm not going to do about that:
1. I'm not going to advocate for the firing of a first-time head coach with a 9-9 career record.
2. I'm not going to throw the Redskins in the garbage for only winning a game by 3 points.
3. I'm not going to go from believing a talented team can compete for their division to thinking of them as a bottom-tier team. The Redskins went 8-8 in the NFC East in 2008 and were in the wildcard hunt until late in the season, with a first-time head coach.

I'm sick beyond the point of exhaustion with Redskins fans. Nothing, and I repeat, NOTHING that I saw on Sunday was even remotely enough for me to change my overall impression of this team; they've got talent, they've got professionals, they're working hard, I'm proud to root for them. They're obviously not ready to win a Super Bowl. So fucking what? They've played TWO GAMES in 2009. SETTLE DOWN.

It could be much, MUCH worse. They could have Mike Shanahan as their coach, and they could have traded for Jay Cutler. They are exceedingly worth rooting for. So they're clumsy and often clueless in key spots. What the fuck? I've become such a scumbag, jaded football fan that I can't stomach supporting a team with good, likable players on it because they're clumsy and often clueless?

Nope. No. It could be infinitely worse. And if the 2009 Redskins collapse, starting with a loss to the Lions on Sunday, it will be infinitely worse; Jim Zorn will be fired, Jason Campbell will be a free-agent, Mike Shanahan (or some similar mercenary) will be coaching here, there'll be years of turnover and turmoil, and I won't give two shits about the Redskins anymore.

So in the meantime, I'm going to root like crazy for the hapless underdog. I love underdogs. For the first time in 15 years, the Redskins are a lovable underdog. The rest of the NFL fans in the world may hate the Skins for their previous splurging on free-agents, their obnoxious name, and yes, their contemptible, utterly clueless fans, but for at least these last few hours of sunset, I'm going to enjoy the little tiny parts of this franchise that are still worth giving a shit about. There'll be plenty of time to loathe them when Dan Snyder says "screw the facade," goes like this, and initiates another 10 year cycle of full-blown foundering.

So there.

They won the fucking game, for crying out loud.

Cardinals over Jaguars, 31-17
My Pick: Jaguars over Cardinals, 24-23
The Jaguars are putrid. They pulled a no-show in their home opener, just like their fans.

49ers over Seahawks, 23-10
My Pick: Seahawks over 49ers, 20-14
Yep, I'm kicking myself for that pick. I really shat the bed on Sunday.

Bills over Bucs, 33-20
My Pick: Bills over Bucs, 31-27
Nothing. Nothing to say, at all.

Broncos over Browns, 27-6
My Pick: Browns over Broncos, 11-8
What was I thinking?

Ravens over Chargers, 31-26
My Pick: Chargers over Ravens, 27-24
Yes, the Ravens are every bit that good. They're probably the best team in the AFC. What an amazing job Ozzie Newsome has done building that team.

Bears over Steelers, 17-14
My Pick: Steelers over Bears, 17-12
A win over Pittsburgh is a good win, anywhere, under any circumstances. I still don't like the Bears, but I'll give them this win; they beat the Super Bowl champs, and that's worth a damn.

Giants over Cowboys, 33-31
My Pick: Giants over Cowboys, 34-31
Read it and weep, motherfuckers. Not only did I pick it, I hit the score to within a single digit. Cower in the corner while your mothers line up to blow me.

Tony Romo cost the Cowboys this one.

Colts over Dolphins, 27-23
My Pick: Colts over Dolphins, 21-19
It's almost impossible to believe a team could hold the ball for more than 45 minutes and still lose a game. Amazingly, I came away from this game feeling better about the Dolphins than the Colts. We always knew the Colts would be able to score points, but if their defense is really that bad, there's just no way they're winning anything down the stretch this season.

Now, some quick picks:

Tennessee @ New York Jets
The Line: New York Jets by 2.5
Should be a slugfest. If the Titans lose, stick a fork in 'em. And I do think they'll lose.
Jets over Titans, 17-10

Jacksonville @ Houston
The Line: Houston by 4
I expect another good showing from Houston's offense. Jacksonville couldn't be bothered to muster together any kind of effort at home in week 2, I don't see them getting too pumped for a road game in Houston.
Texans over Jaguars, 35-23

Kansas City @ Philadelphia
The Line: Philadelphia by 8.5
This could be an interesting game. Either team could totally implode. Philly's home fans won't sit still for long if the Iggles start slow. On the opposite sideline, it's possible Todd Haley'll pull one of these when the Chiefs get their first minor procedural penalty. Actually, nothing would surprise me in this game. Not even the Chiefs winning. (No, I'm not picking the Chiefs.)
Eagles over Chiefs, 23-20

Cleveland @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 13.5
Should be a bloodbath.
Ravens over Browns, 27-6

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay
The Line: New York Giants by 6.5
Giants win.
Giants over Bucs, 30-16

Washington @ Detroit
The Line: Washington by 6.5
That, my friends, is a ridiculous line. The Redskins might win one game all season by 6 or more points, and this from a guy who still thinks they could win more than 9 games.
Redskins over Lions, 19-17

Green Bay @ St. Louis
The Line: Green Bay by 6.5
That, my friends, is another ridiculous line. Green Bay has to earn it first. They lost 11 games last year and they just got dumped at Lambeau by the Bengals.
Packers over Rams, 20-16

San Francisco @ Minnesota
The Line: Minnesota by 7
That, my friends, is another ridiculous line. Fuck it, I'm taking San Francisco. One of these teams is making a statement on Sunday. Who wants to put their money on that team being coached by a grocery store manager?
49ers over Vikings, 21-20

Atlanta @ New England
The Line: New England by 4.5
Tough game to predict. I'll be rooting hard for the Falcons, and I firmly believe they're the better team, but I'm picking the Pats. I still think of them as the Big Bad Wolf, I can't predict them losing at home yet.
Patriots over Falcons, 31-27

This just in: Apparently both Wes Welker and Randy Moss are doubtful for this game. If they're out, the Patriots will lose 34-21.

Chicago @ Seattle
The Line: Chicago by 2.5
Seattle is just too banged up for me to pick them over any competent team.
Bears over Seahawks, 20-14

New Orleans @ Buffalo
The Line: New Orleans by 6
Hard to know what to make of this game, or the line. For Buffalo to only lose by 6, conventional wisdom says they'll need to score roughly 75 points. On the other hand, New Orleans is going to lose this season, which means at least once or twice they're going to have an off day. Could this be one of them?

Sure, why not?

Upset Special!
Bills over Saints, 35-33

Miami @ San Diego
The Line: San Diego by 6
Could be a tight one. I'm taking the home team, but nothing would surprise me.
Chargers over Dolphins, 28-27

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
The Line: Pittsburgh by 3.5
The Steelers should win this game. We'll learn a whole lot about both teams if Cincinnati pulls the upset. My money's on Pittsburgh, but I'll have an eye on this one.
Steelers over Bengals, 17-14

Denver @ Oakland
The Line: Denver by 1.5
Oh honestly, who cares?
Broncos over Raiders, 4-2

Indianapolis @ Arizona
The Line: Arizona by 2.5
This is a big-time "show me" game, and a brilliant piece of scheduling by the NFL. This game could go any of a million ways.

Shockingly, I'm picking the Cardinals.
Cardinals over Colts, 35-27

Carolina @ Dallas
The Line: Dallas by 8.5
Should be a massacre.
Cowboys over Panthers, 38-21

That's it!

I'm hoping to get a vacation re-cap before the my memories are all made mush by what's left of the flu. Maybe that'll be next week.

Go Skynards!

Last Minute Week 1 Recap and Week 2 Picks All-in-One

2009-09-19T19:37:00.000-07:00

I literally just stepped off the airplane this afternoon, after having no access to a computer or TV (for the most part) for the past week. Forgive me if this is hastily put together.

Recap first:

Steelers over Titans, 13-10
My Pick: Steelers over Titans, 20-10
Yep, I was pretty close on this one. Neither team looked amazing, but Pittsburgh pretty much passed the ball at will down the stretch, and that was the difference. Both teams look like strong playoff contenders.

Ravens over Chiefs, 38-24
My Pick: Ravens over Chiefs, 28-6
Kansas City showed some spark, especially on offense. Baltimore looks like a team that is ready to take a huge, huge step forward this season. That's a really exciting proposition, especially considering how young their core is. They can't be too proud of giving up 24 points to Kansas City, but a win is a win, and if they can put up points like this, maybe they won't need their defense to bring home the bacon in 2009.

Broncos over Bengals, 12-7
My Pick: Bengals over Broncos, 20-10
Yeesh. What a dog. Hey, anybody else think Brandon Stokely should be forced to eat a turd sandwich every morning for a year for showboating at the end of one of the luckiest fluke plays in a decade? When the gods sweep in and pull you out from under a freight train, you don't turn around and wag your dick at the conductor. He's due a major, major karmic backlash for that one.

Colts over Jaguars, 14-12
My Pick: Colts over Jaguars, 30-17
Neither offense did squat. On the other hand, neither team showed me anything to be too alarmed about. Jacksonville is leaning far too hard on Maurice Jones-Drew. For crying out loud, the guy isn't Adrian Peterson. He touched the ball on more than half of Jacksonville's offensive plays. That's absurd.

Saints over Lions, 45-27
My Pick: Saints over Lions, 35-16
And that's what happens when you start a rookie quarterback in your first game, with no offensive line, and force him to play from behind because your opponent has the NFL's most dangerous offense and your defense is absolute garbage. Matthew Stafford looked terrible, but not nearly as terrible as Jamarcus Russell. I suppose that's another discussion altogether.

Jets over Texans, 24-7
My Pick: Texans over Jets, 31-20
Oooof. Yowza.

Eagles over Panthers, 38-10
My Pick: Panthers over Eagles, 24-17
"I reckon Carolina will run the ball straight down Philly's gullet, tire out their pass-rush, hit a couple of big pass plays, and keep Philly's "dangerous" offense on the sidelines. Philly's big names will tune out early, and after a few three-and-outs, they'll have that "this is bullshit, we're better than you anyway" smirk on their faces by halftime, which is a sure sign of a Philly loss."

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Golly.

Boy am I glad nobody reads this crap. I feel like the Yogi Berra of NFL picks right now.

Falcons over Dolphins, 19-7
My Pick: Falcons over Dolphins, 27-21
Atlanta was pretty clearly a whole lot better than Miami. I still think Miami could be a strong team in 2009, they just ran into a far more balanced team with a huge homefield boost. I liked what I saw from Atlanta's defense. They've got some players over there.

Vikings over Browns, 34-20
My Pick: Vikings over Browns, 27-7
Adrian Peterson dragged the hapless Browns out to the shed, bent them over a work bench, and ran a table saw through their heads. I'm pretty sure the Vikings would have won this game if they played without a quarterback (no, that's not a knock on or dig at Brett Favre).

Cowboys over Bucs, 34-21
My Pick: Cowboys over Bucs, 28-14
The Cowboys failed to sack Byron Leftwich a single time. Call me an impartial piece of shit homer, but that's what I took away from this thrashing.

49ers over Cardinals, 20-16
My Pick: 49ers over Cardinals, 19-17
Read that shit again, bitch. Read it again, and then tear your head in half trying to conceive of how fucking awesome and huge-dicked I am, and how I screw all the hottest supermodels and shit gold nuggets, which I don't even bother picking up because I'm so fucking rich and great, greater than you by infinity.

Seahawks over Rams, 28-0
My Pick: Seahawks over Rams, 33-13
Way to show up for the season opener, Rams. That's a real, real classy effort.

Giants over Redskins, 23-17
My Pick: Giants over Redskins, 28-27
The Redskins offensive playcalling was absolutely abysmal through the entire first half. Almost every single play-call after the opening handoff to Clinton Portis was either puzzling, or chicken-shit, or wasted, or downright absurd. And DeAngelo Hall has to be one of the worst tacklers at any position in the NFL. I'll give him credit for his interception, but he's just a flat-out terrible, terrible tackler. Terrible.

After halftime, the Skins seemed to settle down and their offense was able to get just a tiny bit of rhythm now and again, but they still showed no ability at all to pick up big chunks of yardage, or even set up the kinds of plays that lead to big, explosive gains, and that meant they needed to pick up a lot of third downs, and that's tough on the road against a defense as strong as the Giants.

There. That's all. I didn't think they were terrible, just out of rhythm and overly cute with their playcalling early.

Packers over Bears, 21-15
My Pick: Packers over Bears, 35-24
That foul smell hanging in the air? That was Jay Cutler dropping an epic deuce under his sheets, then rolling around in it for a few hours before waking up in a swampy tangle of shit-soaked linens. He could not have played worse without actually becoming Jake Delhomme.

Patriots over Bills, 25-24
My Pick: Packers over Bills, 38-17
Hey Leodis, I want you to know I'm not even a Bills fan at all. That's what makes what I did so funny! The message burned into your lawn? That was totally, totally ME! What's funny is, not only do I live like 700 miles from Buffalo, but I was actually in Arizona when you had Montezuma's Revenge all over your team's best chance at a signature win in 5 seasons. In fact, I visited Montezuma's Castle, in ARIZONA, the day after you fell victim to his fury. But I just couldn't let the opportunity pass to express to you the heartfelt sentiment of just about every non-Patriots fan in existence after your stunning, stunning performance Monday night. I'm a man of the people, and I know how important it is to keep these lines of communication open. $800 is a small price to pay to deliver such a well-deserved turd sandwich.

I'm obviously kidding. I feel genuine pity for McKelvin. That doesn't mean I wasn't murderous after that fumble, sitting in a Flagstaff dive being served cold Heinekins by Arizona's reliably mostly-nude female waitstaff, digging deep trenches in the bar with my fingernails. It wasn't helped by the presence of a handful of unforgivable Patriots bandwagoneers cheering away at Tom Brady's "heroics", as if he was out there slapping the ball loose on the game's deciding play.

FUCK!!

Chargers over Raiders, 24-20
My Pick: Raiders over Chargers, 35-27
I would have been the fucking genius of all time if Oakland hadn't pooped their guts out with the victory in hand. Ah well.

Now, for some quick picks:

Oakland @ Kansas City
The Line: Kansas City by 3
This is a tough pick for me. Both teams are crap. I guess I'll take the home team.
Chiefs over Raiders, 24-21

Houston @ Tennessee
The Line: Tennessee by 7
Yep, sounds about right. Nothing would surprise me, but I'm sticking with the team that didn't play like brainless ballerinas in week 1.
Titans over Texans, 28-23

New England @ New York Jets
The Line: New England by 3.5
Tough to say. What a huge win this would be for the Jets. Know what? I'm picking 'em. Why the hell not. If their defense is what everyone says it is, they could do it.
Jets over Patriots, 27-24

Cincinnati @ Green Bay
The Line: Green Bay by 9
Packers win!
Packers over Bengals, 19-13

Minnesota @ Detroit
The Line: Minnesota by 10
Yep.
Vikings over Lions, 30-17

New Orleans @ Philadelphia
The Line: New Orleans by 1
Wow. Look at that line. I guess Vegas is betting on Kevin Kolb getting the start. If he does, the Saints should win. They're not a great road team, and they're especially not a good outdoor road team. We'll see.
Saints over Eagles (if McNabb sits), 27-17

Carolina @ Atlanta
The Line: Atlanta by 6
It'll be the end of the world in Carolina if they don't look much, much better in this one. I say they get stomped out.
Falcons over Panthers, 34-21

St. Louis @ Washington
The Line: Washington by 9.5
Hell, why not? I'm still in giddy, early-season mode. I still think the Redskins offense will break out early this season. Why not against the hapless Rams?
Redskins over Rams, 34-16

Arizona @ Jacksonville
The Line: Jacksonville by 3
You know what? I'm just hammering the home teams today. And so it goes . . .
Jaguars over Cardinals, 24-23

Seattle @ San Francisco
The Line: San Francisco by 1
Here's a crazy thing: this is an NFC West game I'd actually be really interested to watch. I know, right? Wacky.
Seahawks over 49ers, 20-14

Tampa Bay @ Buffalo
The Line: Buffalo by 4.5
Now here's a game no one will care about.
Bills over Bucs, 31-27

Cleveland @ Denver
The Line: Denver by 3
Didn't this game literally just happen? And really, who the hell cares?
Browns over Broncos, 11-8

Baltimore @ San Diego
The Line: San Diego by 3
Love this game. Love it. Should be illuminating.
Chargers over Ravens, 27-24

Pittsburgh @ Chicago
The Line: Pittsburgh by 3
Ready for Act II, in which Jay Cutler barfs his heart up at midfield in the fourth quarter of another stink bomb?
Steelers over Bears, 17-12

New York Giants @ Dallas
The Line: Dallas by 3
The only shitty thing about this matchup is one of these teams will be 2-0 on Monday. That sucks. Let's hope it's not the Cowpokes.
Giants over Cowboys (in their new stadium, no less), 34-31

Indianapolis @ Miami
The Line: Indianapolis by 3
Yeah, whatever.
Colts over Dolphins, 21-19

That's it!

Go Skynards!

Thrown Together NFL Preview and Week 1 Picks

2009-08-24T10:15:00.000-07:00

I got as far as the AFC South before I ran out of time on a more comprehensive NFL preview. It turns out I don't have anywhere near as much time to bullshit around on NFL things at my current job. Ah well. Picks and season previews will be rolled up together for this, which must be completed before tonight's season opener. Here we go!

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh by 6.5

Pittsburgh won the Super Bowl in 2008, and I think they'll be even a little bit better in 2009. They haven't solved their offensive line problems, but they proved last season that you can win a Super Bowl with shaky pass protection. If they can stay healthy at key positions, they should be back in the AFC Championship. On the flip side, with shaky protection and a risk-taking quarterback, you're always only a play away from a major disaster. If such a thing should happen, the Steelers would be lucky to get a wild-card. The AFC is nowhere near as deep as the NFC, but it's still a tough conference.

As for Tennessee, they're not going to be a special team in 2009. In 2008, Jason Campbell threw for 3200 yards, 13 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, a 63% completion percentage, and an 84 passer rating. That was good enough for him to be nearly replaced twice this off-season, and he's 27 years old, has a cannon arm, and was playing in his first season in a new offense. In 2008, Kerry Collins threw for 2600 yards, 12 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, a 58% completion percentage, and an 80 passer rating, behind the NFL's best offensive line, with the NFL's strongest running game, and the NFL's best defense giving him a short field. Is he going to play that well this season? He might. It will not be enough to get the Titans to the playoffs. Especially since their defense is due for a major downturn, and they're still depending upon LenDale "Buffet Killer" White in their backfield. Have they solved their receiver issues? Nope. On paper, this is a lousy football team in need of a rebuild. Jeff Fisher will keep them competitive, but they're done competing for the AFC South.

As for this game, I like the home team.
Steelers over Titans, 20-10

Miami @ Atlanta
The Line: Atlanta by 4
Miami had a fluky 2008. The Wildcat helped them along, as did some uncharacteristically healthy seasons from some injury prone key components in their offense. They don't have a ton of talent on either side of the ball, but they have good schemes and they play well within them. Chad Pennington doesn't make many mistakes, and they've got a talented backfield. I could see them remaining competitive in 2009. Their defense doesn't scare me, but then, it didn't scare me last season, and they still found a way to get the job done. They're a well-coached, hard-working bunch of nobodies, and I respect that.

Atlanta, on the other hand, could be primed for "the leap" in 2009. They've got a franchise quarterback in Matt Ryan. They've got talent at receiver and a legitimate number one guy in Roddy White. They've got a sharp, HOF professional at tight end in Tony Gonzalez. They've got depth, durability, and serious talent in their backfield. They've got a young-but-feisty offensive line. In short, they've got all the pieces you're looking for on offense. On defense, they'll have to jump up and surprise folks, but they had some spark last season, and a knack for making big plays. Another season in Mike Smith's system, who's to say they don't emerge as a top-third defense in 2009? That could be enough to take them to a 12-win season.

As for this game, it should be interesting. I don't see how anyone could root against these two teams. I think the home team'll take it, but I wouldn't be surprised either way. I'd be surprised most if Atlanta played poorly, but I expect both teams to play well, with Atlanta pulling ahead on their pedigree.
Falcons over Dolphins, 27-21

Kansas City @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 13
Without getting too into it, I like Todd Haley as the coach of the rebuilding Kansas City Chargers. I'm not sold on Matt Cassel, but I'll say this; the Chiefs went from Herm Edwards and Tyler Thigpen to a guy who coached in the Super Bowl in 2008 and the guy who played behind Tom Brady, with Scott Pioli running things behind the scenes. Their pedigree took a huge, huge leap. Haley, for his part, is a detail-obsessed lunatic who stalks the sidelines blazing with the intensity of a thousand suns. Would I want to play spades with him? Probably not. But as the coach of the previously expectation-free Chiefs, I think he'll do a good job. In 2009, the Chiefs will get de-pantsed, bent over, and man-raped by a gang of rabid Grizzly bears, many times over, but down the road, I think they can build a contender with this nucleus.

The Ravens are already half way up that same incline. They've got their franchise quarterback, they've got a brilliant executive running the show, and they've got a sharp, professional, feisty young head coach with a few ideas to keep opposing teams guessing. They've got depth in the backfield. Their defense is still formidable. I don't see them winning the AFC North, but I think they'll win 10 or more games, a lot of them ugly, and put a scare into someone in the playoffs. A side note, though; they need to start getting younger in their secondary and in the linebacking corps.

Baltimore is going to pound the unholy shit out of Kansas City on Sunday. It's going to be really, really brutal.
Ravens over Chiefs, 28-6

Philadelphia @ Carolina
The Line: Philadelphia by 2.5
I'm not buying the hype on Philly at all. First of all, since when was LaSean McCoy a world-beater? Gimme a friggin' break. The Eagles didn't scare me one effing bit with those receivers in 2008; I'm supposed to believe an undersized rookie who played in a spread offense in college suddenly makes a 9 win football team into a Super Bowl favorite? Hell, hell, hell no. Not with that old-ass, fake offensive line, headlined by the biggest fraud in the business, sullen fatso Jason Peters. Not with a new defensive coordinator running a show that suddenly doesn't include last year's starters at middle linebacker and free safety. Not with a head coach who still can't commit to the run and still can't manage a game. Not on a team that is notorious for buying their own hype and sleep-walking through games. No way. Maybe I'm wrong, but I just don't see it. It's all a lot of hype.

Carolina could be a lot of hype, too, but I like their makeup a lot better. A durable twosome in the backfield. A young offensive line with genuine talent. A proven number one receiver. Their defense isn't scaring me (yet), but they've done more with less in the past. Jake Delhomme is a big question mark, but if they've figured out how to win at home, they could post another 10-win season and challenge for the South. And that's really all I have to say about that.

And you know what? I'm picking the home team. I reckon Carolina will run the ball straight down Philly's gullet, tire out their pass-rush, hit a couple of big pass plays, and keep Philly's "dangerous" offense on the sidelines. Philly's big names will tune out early, and after a few three-and-outs, they'll have that "this is bullshit, we're better than you anyway" smirk on their faces by halftime, which is a sure sign of a Philly loss.
Panthers over Eagles, 24-17

Denver @ Cincinnati
The Line: Cincinnati by 4
Denver is going to be an awful, awful football team. Not just this season, either. Josh McDaniels is a turd. He'll be Oakland's quarterback coach in another couple of years, toiling away in Siberia with the disaster he wrought on one of the NFL's most stable franchises hanging around his neck like a big, fat scarlet A. I feel bad for Kyle Orton, who established himself just in time to get paired up with this dummy and who can expect to be supplanted in Denver before week 10. To top it off, Denver doesn't even have one single piece required to run a good 3-4 defense. I hate, hate, hate the state of this franchise. I'd be rooting for their demise if not for my pity of Orton.

As for Cincinnati, they still have most of the pieces of a dangerous offense. They might be able to score some points, if they can keep Carson Palmer upright behind a shockingly unqualified offensive line. I think their defense will surprise a lot of people in 2009, and not with how bad they are. They still have a knucklehead coach who can't manage a game for squat, but I think they're starting to think of themselves as a team who has to play hard and precise to win football games, which beats the hell out of what they used to be; a team that thought they could trash-talk and strut their way to victory. They've even become a sexy sleeper pick to make a run at a wild-card. Don't get carried away with that crap; they'll be lucky to sniff 8 wins in 2009. But there's at least the potential for success, as long as they stay healthy at some key positions.

Nobody in their right mind cares about this game, though. I suppose Cincy will win, because they've got more pieces and they're at home.
Bengals over Broncos, 20-10

Minnesota @ Cleveland
The Line: Minnesota by 4
It would almost be a blessing if Adrian Peterson was lost for the season. To injury, to retirement, to depression, to suspension, hell, even to kidnapping. Even more hell, I'd consider death! That way, I could hate the Vikings with the fury of God's own thunder. As it stands, I hate about 85% of that franchise, but I can't round that final bend and fully hate them, not when they have the NFL's most electrifying player, not when he happens to be a really good guy. So I'm basically fucked; I'd like nothing more than to see the Vikings lose 16 games in 2009, except for that to happen, either AP would have to sustain a devastating injury, or he'd have to have one hell of an abysmal season, casting his historical context into immediate doubt.

I feel confident saying this, though; Brett Farve doesn't make them so much better that it's worth the cost to Minnesota's chemistry and future. He won't play even remotely well in up to half of their games this season, because he's old, because he's busted down, because he missed all of training camp, because he's actually not all that good a quarterback, and because he makes horrible, horrible decisions when pressured. So there.

As for Cleveland, look, that team is a joke. They had the briefest of windows when it looked like they might have some pieces. Now? I hate even glancing at their roster. Eric Mangini is a guy who, I think, knows what to look for in putting together a cohesive team. I don't think he knows shit about game-management, and I don't think his players buy into his swinging baloney. I think he's a little bit embarrassing to his players. That can work when you're the hokey, Christian, we-can-do-it! sort of coach. I don't think it'll work when you're the slick, gum-chewing, tough-talking, nerd-in-macho-costume Mangini so obviously is. He's been handed two critically flawed quarterbacks, an ancient tailback, one (1) receiver, and a pretty good offensive line. I'm not sure you can build a dangerous offense around that foundation. And I'm doubly not sure they can put together much of a defense with what they have on that side of the ball, especially in the secondary. I guess we'll see. Everyone's all up Mangini's ass for his defensive prowess. Again, we'll see.

This happens to be another game I don't give two shits about. If Cleveland wins, I'll be yucking it up come Monday. But I expect they'll open 2009 with another loss. They just don't have the talent at all.
Vikings over Browns, 27-7

New York Jets @ Houston
The Line: Houston by 4.5
I don't expect much from Rex Ryan's tenure in New York. Why? First, his dad was a crap head coach, and those Ryan boys effing worship their dad. Secondly, he's far too much of a player's coach. Third, he's all ga-ga over the media attention that comes from being a head coach, and I hate that crap. Fourth, some guys just don't have it as game-managers, and Ryan strikes me as one of those guys. Some of the most important stuff a head-coach does takes place in those time-sensitive down-and-distance moments in critical points in close games, and those are moments when your head has to be into the situation. I believe Ryan is a smart enough guy. The problem? The vast, overwhelming majority of those make-or-break moments happen when your offense is on the field, and I flat do not believe Ryan is a cerebral enough guy to be sharp on his offense in those moments.

All that, plus I don't at all like New York's talent on offense, and they're starting a rookie quarterback who reminds me of a homosexual matador. It's just that way, and I won't apologize for it.

Houston, on the other hand, has serious offensive fire-power. If their offensive line is even a little bit better, and they've gotten even a little bit better in the red-zone, this team could be putting up 27 points a game, and if that happens, they'll win 10 games. Their defense doesn't scare me, and there's absolutely no way Mario Williams puts up another dozen sacks without drastically improved play from the rest of the front-seven, not unless he's Super Mario Williams, and can flatten offensive linemen by bouncing off their heads and shoot fire-balls at quarterbacks when he . . . ummm . . . touches a specific red flower, but if they're a middle-of-the-pack defense in 2009 with an occasionally frightening pass-rush, they'll win 10 games.

In short, I expect the 2009 Houston Texans to finally hit double-digit wins.

And I expect them to win this game, fairly easily.
Texans over Jets, 31-20

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
The Line: Indianapolis by 7

Jacksonville doesn't scare anybody on either side of the ball. They just don't have any playmakers anywhere on the roster. They're doing the right thing, rebuilding the team from the lines outward in the draft, but it'll be another few years before they're ready to make a push into the postseason. I hope Jack Del Rio is long gone by then, so they can have a genuine back-bone when they get there. But as it stands, they've got a shitty coach and no playmakers.

Indy's getting a little long in the tooth in some key places, but they've done a nice job of finding younger guys to step in and play key positions at a high level. Their window may be closing, but they'll continue to be super-sharp and dangerous on offense. I worry about the subtle switch away from Tony Dungy's Tampa-2 scheme, because it's really the only defense that works when you're undersized up front. I also worry about the fragility of some of their key defensive guys, and the lack of depth behind them. If Indy's defense stays healthy and plays like they can, Indy could win the AFC. If the defense struggles, they'll probably still challenge for the South, if not win it outright. I'm not at all worried about their passing game. The running game does bother me a bit, because they've struggled mightily in short yardage situations for two years now, but again, health will play a major role in this, because they definitely have the talent.

Indy should win this game. I expect Jacksonville to compete, but I don't see them winning this game on the road.
Colts over Jaguars, 30-17

Detroit @ New Orleans
The Line: New Orleans by 13

The Lions still stink, I'm sorry to say. I'm not at all happy with the decision to start Matthew Stafford. All other reasons aside, this kid has not looked ready to play against NFL defenses this preseason. When he stinks, you can't pull him, because it'll wreck his confidence and start the whole "bust" conversation. Daunte Culpepper is a big, strong, healthy, veteran quarterback with a bazooka arm. The last time this guy was the healthy starter on a turf team with talent at receiver, he put up numbers that make Pro Bowl quarterbacks hide under the blanket. At worst, you've got a guy you can compete with and some excitement in the wings. I especially don't like this decision being made by a first-time head coach with a defensive background. This reeks of a guy in over his head with big, gooey, dinner-plate eyes over his young golden boy. I don't see it ending well. How many consecutive losses will Detroit accumulate before the whole city spontaneously combusts?

New Orleans, on the other hand, has a scary offense. I expect them to leap right back to the top of the NFL in most offensive categories. I don't know why everyone likes them more than last year, but they were pretty scary last year, so there's at least that to look forward to. Drew Brees will continue to put up huge numbers. I still don't care much for their defense, and I'm certain Gregg Williams is not the guy to take them to the next level. They'll be in the running in the NFC South, and I could see them securing a first round bye in the playoffs, but I don't think of them as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. We'll see.

New Orleans will easily win this game. They could probably win if they played their offense both ways.
Saints over Lions, 35-16

Dallas @ Tampa Bay
The Line: Dallas by 6

You know, this whole NFL preview thing is getting really tired. I think I need a break. I think I'll take a team or two off.

Okay, I got my second wind. The Bucs are off to a bad start with the Raheem Morris era. The whole hiring and firing of Jeff Jagoff-inski was a disaster, from start to finish. You've especially got to love it when a coach admits publicly that his lack of NFL experience led him to hire his OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR because the guy's name was on the rise, even though he didn't really know much at all about his offense or his coaching style. Yikes. I'm not impressed by any single part of Tampa Bay's roster. They need work. I think they're making the right decision by shelving Josh Freeman for the time being. He's a big kid with good athleticism and a big arm, but he needs some work, and hopefully they'll get an honest-to-goodness quarterbacks coach in there and bring him along slowly. He could have a future.

Dallas wins! Dallas wins! Dallas wins!
Cowboys over Buccaneers, 28-14

San Francisco @ Arizona
The Line: Arizona by 6.5

Okay, now it really is getting exhausting.

I don't care at all about the NFC West.

San Francisco could be much better, especially on defense. They might also have a running game. If they've figured out how to get the ball to Vernon Davis, they could score some points. If they do, they could win 9 or 10 games in a best-case-scenario type season.

Arizona is one injury at any one of 4 different positions away from being a weak team. I think it'll happen. If not, they should win their division. I don't have any confidence in a team that loses both coordinators, sleepwalks through the preseason, and starts Kurt Warner at quarterback.

I'm picking the road team. Call me crazy.
49ers over Cardinals, 19-17

Washington @ New York Giants
The Line: New York Giants by 6.5

I'm really excited about the 2009 Redskins. I think their offense will take a huge, huge step forward now that they've found a healthy, talented second receiver from among their young options. I think the offensive line will be much better. I think Jim Zorn will open up the offense a bit. On the other side of the ball, I think Albert Haynesworth will make a big difference, but I actually think Brian Orakpo will make a bigger difference. I think that, by midseason, Jeremy Jarmon will have carved out a role for himself as a situational pass-rusher. I think the secondary will have more opportunities to make plays because of an improved pass rush. I honestly, honestly think the Redskins could win as many as 12 games in 2009.

New York will still probably win the NFC East. They've got terrifying depth at all the important positions. Their defensive line scares the shit out of me. I like their receivers. I like the way this team seems to always play with a chip on their shoulders. I think they're going to have a great, great season.

And it'll start with a win at home on opening day. I hope it's a shootout.
Giants over Redskins, 28-27

St. Louis @ Seattle
The Line: Seattle by 8.5

St. Louis is going to be terrible in 2009. There will be serious questions about whether or not Steve Spagnuola is cut out to be an NFL head coach. He is, but there's absolutely no talent on this team. Okay, maybe there is, but I don't see it as the kind of talent you build around. Maybe that's just me. I honestly wish him the best of luck out there, but it looks like a wasteland.

Seattle is probably the second or third most overrated team in the NFL right now. Funny how that was also true last preseason, and the season before that, and the one before that, etc., etc., etc. They could win some games this season, but I'm not impressed by that team. I hate their backfield, their receiving corps, and most of their defense. I'll be unhappy if they have a good season.

They'll win this one easily.
Seahawks over Rams, 33-13

Chicago @ Green Bay
The Line: Green Bay by 3.5

Chicago has some interesting pieces. Too bad none of them are on defense. They won't be able to afford the turnovers they just bought by trading for Jay Cutler. Could they get into the playoffs? Maybe. I hope not. I do still like Lovie Smith, but if it takes him getting fired for this whole Jay Cutler sausage-gobbling to stop, well, I'm willing to make that sacrifice.

Green Bay looks to me like a really intriguing Super Bowl pick. That offense scares me. If the defense can do anything at all with this new 3-4 look, they could win a lot of games. I like them to win the North.

And it'll start with a nice home win to open the season.
Packers over Bears, 35-24

Buffalo @ New England
The Line: New England by 11

Buffalo stinks. It's a shame, because I honestly think they have some nice young pieces. If T.O. doesn't wreck this team's mojo by week 3, there's a shot in hell they put it all together and make a showing in the wild-card race. They'll need improved offensive line play, they'll need Trent Edwards to take another step forward, and they'll need their young defense to continue to grow as a unit, especially in the category of rushing the passer. It could happen. For some reason, I see them sinking down towards the bottom of the AFC. I guess I hope not, but I do hate T.O.

New England, on the other hand, should still be solid gold for 11-14 wins in 2009, provided they stay healthy. I don't think they'll overwhelm teams like they did two seasons ago, but they're sharp and sturdy enough to win easily over most teams. This will be one sad, sad season if New England goes back to playing the contemptible bully now that Tom Brady is healthy again. I might swear off the NFL if that coincides with the Redskins collapsing.

Pats win.
Patriots over Bills, 38-17

San Diego @ Oakland
The Line: San Diego by 9.5

San Diego goes into 2009 just as anointed as ever. Makes me sick, actually. Will they win the West? Sure. Will they be a disappointment by almost any other measure? I think so.

Oakland is garbage. Pure garbage. Juice and all.

An upset in this one would make me incredibly happy. And really, how can you pick against what would make you incredibly happy?
Raiders over Chargers, 35-27

There probably won't be a recap, and there may not be week 2 picks, because I'll be out of town this week. I'll see what I can slam together when I get back in.

Go Skynards!

Week 15 Pix and Only Pix

2008-12-12T09:03:00.001-08:00

I'm a big loser, I'm very busy at work, I'm not as enthusiastic about the picks these days . . . there are many reasons. Here are my picks.

Chicago @ New Orleans
Saints over Bears, 30-24

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Falcons over Bucs, 23-17

San Francisco @ Miami
Dolphins over 49ers, 17-14

Seattle @ St. Louis
Seahawks tie Rams, 10-10

Buffalo @ New York Jets
Jets over Bills, 31-17

San Diego @ Kansas City
Chargers over Chiefs, 27-20

Washington @ Cincinnati
Washington's offense breaks out. I swear.
Redskins over Bengals, 30-17

Tennessee @ Houston
Titans over Texans, 23-21

Green Bay @ Jacksonville
I'm never picking the Packers again.
Jaguars over Packers, 20-19

Detroit @ Indianapolis
Colts over Lions, 35-14

Minnesota @ Arizona
Cardinals over Vikings, 27-23

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Ravens over Steelers, 13-10

Denver @ Carolina
Panthers over Broncos, 37-28

New England @ Oakland
Patriots over Raiders, 24-7

New York Giants @ Dallas
Dallas is fully imploding. T.O. is calling meetings, accusing Romo and Witten of drawing up plays in the sand and not including him, despite the fact that 2 of Romo's 3 picks on Sunday were horribly forced passes to Owens. Romo looks like garbage, the team chemistry is awful, and New York is pissed off and hungry.
Giants over Cowboys, 25-24

Cleveland @ Philadelphia
Keep an eye on this game. Philly sucks at home, and they suck overall. Cleveland's defense is better than you think.
Eagles over Browns, 20-9

That's it. I really will try to do more next week. I swear.

Go Skynards!

Fucking NFL - Week 14 Edition

2008-12-09T06:18:00.001-08:00

I went 12-4 with my picks this weekend, but my enthusiasm for the 2008 NFL season is almost gone. The following things depress the shit out of me:

1. The awful, contemptible San Diego Chargers winning any football game by 27 points, especially a prime-time game.
2. Philadelphia getting their first NFC East win when they're already pretty much cooked on the season. Even worse that it happened against the Giants, who played so poorly on Sunday I'm no longer making them my favorite to go to the Super Bowl from the NFC.
3. Minnesota winning a game in Detroit they had no business winning. These guys are due a huge karmic backlash. This game is like the movie Final Destination. The Lions were supposed to win that game. Now Minnesota will spend the rest of the season watching their players go down in gruesome fashion.
4. New England winning in Seattle when they had no business escaping with a victory. Seattle was the better team and they were supposed to win that game.
5. Two teams that started the season off wonderfully and looked like admirable dark-horses (the Bills and Redskins) got shoved around, beat up, exposed, and ultimately eliminated in unceremonious fashion Sunday.

There were two (2) bright spots: 1. Tony Romo utterly, utterly imploded and single-handedly ruined Dallas's chances in Pittsburgh. The ground game was strong. The defense was as good as they've ever been or ever will be. There's only one reason the Cowboys didn't win on Sunday: from beginning to end, Tony Romo was determined to kill his team. 4 total turnovers, including the game-winning touchdown "pass". Lovely! 2. Eric Mangini really went out of his way to look like a doofus in the Jets horribly one-sided, crushing loss to the 49ers. First of all, I love any coach who calls only 11 running plays when his defense is spending too much time on the field and his backfield is churning out over 5 yards per carry. That kind of balls-out stupidity, especially on a team as loathsome as the Jets, can brighten even the darkest Sunday. I've looked at the time of possession stats of that game at least . . . well, twice, and I still can't believe it. 39 minutes of possession? By San Francisco? Holy hell.

Now, a quick re-cap of week 14. And I do mean quick.

San Diego over Oakland, 34-7
My Pick: San Diego over Oakland, 20-14
Great. Good win. Not that this game had even the slightest bit of value or meaning. I hate the Chargers so much I'm starting to hate the actual city of San Diego, and I've never been there.

New Orleans over Atlanta, 29-25
My Pick: Atlanta over New Orleans, 34-30
This was a tough loss, but fortunately for the Falcons, Dallas and Tampa and Washington all also lost, meaning Atlanta sits in pretty much the exact same position they were in headed into week 14. As for the Saints, hey, good win. The Saints are dangerous at home.

Indianapolis over Whoever . . . ummmmm . . . Cincinnati? 35-3
My Pick: Indianapolis over Cincinnati, 27-13
Let's hope this is the same Bengals team that shows up on Sunday to host the Washington Redskins. That'd be just fine with me.

Philadelphia over New York Giants, 20-14
My Pick: New York Giants over Philadelphia, 28-14
Eli Manning was absolutely dismal on Sunday. He played as poorly as any NFL quarterback has played all season. Whatever else happened in this game, ultimately you have to hang this loss around his neck. Now the Giants are really banged up headed down the stretch. This game, more than any other, made me angry at the NFL. On the one hand, the whole "any given Sunday" thing makes the NFL exciting. On the other hand, fuck, I wish good teams would play well on every goddamn given Sunday. Legit Super Bowl contenders do not play as poorly as the Giants did on Sunday, not in a league that isn't super fucking thin. I'm sorry, but you can't play like a blind, burned-out junkie and have your balls ripped off and expect me to take you seriously. The Giants are a good football team, but I seem to remember a time when the really good teams in the NFL were always good, week in and week out. Sometimes they lost when their opponents were on fire, but really good teams never came out and stumbled around like fucking retards in awful, embarrassing one-sided demolitions. And that's what this was; before the Giants put up a meaningless score with under 2 minutes left, this was a 20-7 bloodbath in which the Giants had put up almost zero fight and had one of the worst, most inept offenses on any field in America this Sunday. So how in the hell does a team with the ability to look this totally dysfunctional and directionless manage to win 11 of 12 and pretty easily put away a competitive NFC East with weeks to spare? Well, the NFL is a dogshit league these days. Even the good teams are just in a transition period between sucking and sucking again. NFL franchises don't have systems, foundations, strategies, or personnel long enough to develop into the kind of teams that will always be sharp and competitive on Sunday, even in a loss. Once upon a time, every NFL team had somebody at quarterback who could see out of both eyes, offensive and defensive coordinators who knew how to use the players available to them, and even if they didn't play well every Sunday, they played roughly the same every Sunday. Bad teams were bad because they were bad. Good teams were good because they were actually good. In today's NFL, good teams are good when the stars are aligned, the wind blows at 4.7 miles per hour from the northwest, nobody on the roster implodes or sleepwalks, and the opponent lays down. Bad teams are only bad when they're trying to get their coach fired.

I'm very down on the NFL today.

Tennessee over Cleveland, 28-9
My Pick: Tennessee over Cleveland, 37-10
Cleveland sucked, Tennessee did what they were supposed to do.

Houston over Green Bay, 24-21
My Pick: Green Bay over Houston, 24-20
Matt Schaub and Steve Slaton were both excellent. The Packers were rubbish. Fuck the Packers. No team in the NFL is as good at finding ways to lose as the Packers. And what the fuck happened to Green Bay's defense? They're garbage. To reiterate: fuck the Packers.

Minnesota over Detroit, 20-16
My Pick: Minnesota over Detroit, 28-24
The Lions had this game, and they were supposed to win it. This was their week. I haven't yet figured out which team is going to get the bigger cosmic retribution; Minnesota, for winning what was supposed to be Detroit's game? Or Detroit, for letting their week slip away? Probably Detroit. Minnesota had more turnovers and more penalties; they did their part. They also put Tarvaris Jackson in the game, another concession. Minnesota did their part. As for the Lions, losing this game is like looking the gift horse in the mouth. I've never been sure what that means, but anyway they say you shouldn't do it.

Chicago over Jacksonville, 23-10
My Pick: Chicago over Jacksonville, 21-17
Way to show up, Jaguars. Jack Del Rio might have already been fired by now. If I felt like checking any sports news outlets, I might find that out. At any rate, he's pretty clearly got a pink slip coming to him. No way he comes back in 2009.

New England over Seattle, 24-21
My Pick: New England over Seattle, 28-19
They say a win is a win, but I'm not so sure. Seneca Wallace put 3 passing touchdowns on the board, ran for 47 yards, and pretty much had the Seahawks in position for a win before New England scrambled down the stretch and managed to sneak off with the "w". Now tell me, coming out of this game, which team do you think feels better? I'm guessing it's not New England. They couldn't run the ball for shit, their defense didn't do much, and they were pretty well outplayed all afternoon.

Miami over Buffalo, 16-3
My Pick: Miami over Buffalo, 21-20
Seriously. A "home" date in a dome in Toronto in December is a raw-deal, but the Bills were so flat they could probably be investigated for sabotage. It's one thing to gripe about handing away your homefield advantage, something else entirely to scuttle your entire season over it. If you're going to see your season officially flushed down the toilet, I'm not sure I can think of a worse, more depressing way than by scoring only 3 points in a lopsided loss to a division rival in a relocated "home" game. Yuck.

San Francisco over New York Jets, 24-14
My Pick: San Francisco over New York Jets, 20-14
I was spot-friggin'-on with this pick. The Jets got fucking obliterated in San Francisco. Pay no attention to that final score. New York was doubled up in yards and time of possession. The Jets defense was exposed a week ago and subsequently manhandled and brutally sodomized this Sunday. Wow. Has any defense been so embarrassingly bad with a nickel back on the field? Jesus. Eric Mangini, defensive genius, maybe you want to practice in something other than your base set? Holy hell. And what about the offense? 11 running plays to 31 passes? When your defense is tired from being on the field for more than twice as long as the opponent? What . . . the . . . fuck.

Denver over Kansas City, 24-17
My Pick: Denver over Kansas City, 28.5-20
Denver wins the AFC West.

Arizona over St. Louis, 34-10
My Pick: Arizona over St. Louis, 35-16
Pretty close, right?

Pittsburgh over Dallas, 20-13
My Pick: Pittsburgh over Dallas, 20-10
Hey, you don't go 12-4 on Sunday without getting some picks pretty damn spot on.

Tony Romo, folks. To hell with all these "gunslingers". This is what happens when a gunslinger goes up against a great defense; they sling it right to the defense. Will Tony Romo eat shit for it? Probably not. He's got his shriveled dick so far up the media's lubed-up ass, they'll probably find a way to blame his receivers.

Baltimore over Washington, 24-10
My Pick: Washington over Baltimore, 25-17
I said the Redskins needed to split the New York/Baltimore games to make the playoffs. They did not. They will not make the playoffs. It's all but official. I don't so much care about that.

What I do care about, though, is suffering through another dismal offensive showing by the Redskins, who might have one of the worst pass-protecting offensive lines in football. Now that that offensive line is down to Casey Rabach, Pete Kendall, a couple of scarecrows and a feisty Hog-ette, I can't see the situation improving down the stretch.

Here's what's missing: fucking ANYBODY other than Jason Campbell among Washington's offensive players who has anything like game-breaking ability. Washington fans are calling for a switch at quarterback, and I personally love the idea; why should we have even one guy on the field at any given moment who can both outrun a small child and reach the cupboards in my kitchen? Seriously, I love this team. Clinton Portis executes better than any tailback in football, but he has no speed at all whatsoever. The days of expecting Portis to break a run longer than 30 yards are over, and not just because teams are loading up to stop him. He might be the slowest tailback in football. Santana Moss is a smooth athlete with a lot of burst, but for fuck's sake, he's my height, he drops a lot of balls, and he's not the best in the world at a) getting open, nor b) making tough catches. Antwan Randle El is a great spokesperson for the Redskins, but that's about it. Chris Cooley is another precise player who executes well, and at the tight end position, that's what you want. On the other hand, when you don't have any other receiver on the team who isn't completely one-dimensional, Cooley's production is more or less useless, because once the Redskins get down in the redzone, the area of the field where their general shrimpiness becomes a major, major liability, all defenses have to focus on is the friggin' tight end. As for the offensive line, what the fuck. These guys can only run block. Why? Because the average age is something like 45. Pete Kendall doesn't even practice during the week because he's so goddamn old and busted. Jon Jansen's knees are about as sturdy as a house of cards. Casey Rabach, holy shit. Don't get me started. Chris Samuels apparently has ebola or some shit. He's more busted down than the U.S. Auto Industry. Randy Thomas was never a special pass-blocker. The Redskins need a lot of help up front. This upcoming draft must yield at least one viable starter on the offensive line.

As for the defense, Christ it's the same shit every week! Zero pass rush, and I mean zero. I'm getting tired of people talking about them "getting pressure", but just no sacks. Motherfuckers, either they're getting pressure and have the worst secondary in football, or they aren't getting pressure for shit. My fucking eyes tell me they couldn't generate pressure on a blood pressure cuff. The Redskins have a fantastic secondary, maybe the deepest in the NFL, but it isn't worth shit if they can't ever force a quick throw up front. Of all the annoying shit that's been exposed about this Redskins team in the last 5 weeks, the utter inability to get even a little bit of consistent pressure is so maddening I want to run out onto the field and twist Jason Taylor's head off.

I'm allowing myself to rant a little bit after this loss because it marked the end of the Redskins 2008 season. All in all, I'd still call the season a success and I still think this Redskins team ranks among my all-time favorites in burgundy and gold. The Redskins might be one of only a handful of semi-successful or successful teams in the league that actually plays pretty consistently every Sunday. It's just a shame they can't play at a consistently higher level. And when I use the word "can't", I friggin' mean it. They can't. They don't have it. Maybe next season, when Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas and Fred Davis are ready to make bigger contributions and the offensive and defensive lines have been addressed, maybe they'll be able to do something in Jim Zorn's offense. As for this season, I'm no longer waiting for the Redskins to have a break-out offensive game. They don't have it. The 29 points they put up in week 2 is the high-point. The personnel ain't right. There it is.

Carolina over Tampa Bay, 38-23
My Pick: Carolina over Tampa Bay, 20-13
Carolina and Tampa Bay, two more NFC teams that don't belong in the discussion of best team in the NFL. This season, there is no best team in the NFL. I refuse to put anyone atop that pile. No team in the NFL has been good enough week to week to earn it. Please don't anybody dare utter the word "Tennessee", either. Kerry Collins is playing like a guy who wants to go back to the bench. Tennessee's offense isn't scaring anybody, and their defense is coming back to earth. They're not better than Carolina.

And that's the whole deal for week 14. This season has gotten very messy, and I'm getting sick of it. Hopefully week 15 will be a little better.

Peace!

Hastily Banged Out Thursday Evening Picks for Week 14

2008-12-05T07:49:00.000-08:00

Quickly, now:

Oakland @ San Diego
The Line: San Diego by 10
Yep. Looks about right. Will I be surprised at all if Oakland wins this game by 3 scores? No. But the law of averages says the Chargers are going to win another game or two this season, and this is one of 'em.
Chargers over Raiders, 20-14

Atlanta @ New Orleans
The Line: New Orleans by 3
I don't know, New Orleans is a crappy team. The Falcons are a hundred times better than New Orleans. On the other hand, the Saints are a much, much better team at home, where their offense can be just absurdly dangerous.

I want Atlanta to win, I think they have a good shot. Know what? I'm taking 'em. They've faced bigger, badder foes farther from home. I think they can handle Drew Brees and his motley crew in New Orleans.
Falcons over Saints, 34-30

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
The Line: Indianapolis by 13-5
Yeah, I don't see Cincy winning this game. A few times this season they've looked completely dead on their feet. Other times, they've had a little fight in 'em. It's impossible to know what might inspire them to show up and pour their guts out. You have to pick the Colts. It shouldn't be close.
Colts over Bengals, 27-13

Philadelphia @ New York Giants
The Line: Giants by 7
I'm not going to do the whole "Philly might surprise someone" thing. Fuck them. The Giants are 7,000 times better, hungrier, tougher, better prepared, and more professional than the Eagles. The Giants win this game by 2 scores at least.
Giants over Eagles, 28-14

Cleveland @ Tennessee
The Line: Tennessee by 14
Here's the rest of what I started to say about Ken Dorsey in my week 13 recap: there might only be two or three players in the NFL I'd rather sit down and have a beer with. This cat's been cool as a cucumber since his freshman year at Miami. He was a gamer then, he's probably still got a little gamer in him. Too bad this is the NFL, where a pretty startling lack of NFL-grade ability will ultimately negate any clutch ballership he's got left in the tank. And there's the distinct possibility the Browns will have the ball for fewer than 20 minutes of offense. Titans win huge.
Titans over Browns, 37-10

Houston @ Green Bay
The Line: Green Bay by 6
If Matt Schaub plays, this'll be a nice little match-up of talented young passers who so far haven't been able to take their teams to the next level. I do think both of these guys will turn out to be damn-near-elite, Pro Bowl level quarterbacks if they can stay healthy. As for this game, Houston could win, especially if they play as well as they did last Monday. I'm taking Green Bay, because they're at home and they're due. Also, I think they're a lot more talented on both sides of the ball.
Packers over Texans, 24-20

Minnesota @ Detroit
The Line: Minnesota by 9
This game should be a huge step towards locking up the division for Minnesota. Detroit is friggin' road kill right now, Minnesota should be able to pound the living shit out of 'em. On the other hand, Minnesota is a crappy, fragile team, they're dealing with all kinds of controversy right now regarding their interior defensive line, and I don't know if I can pick them to take a decisive step towards anything positive. If they were playing almost anyone else . . .
Vikings over Lions, 28-24

Jacksonville @ Chicago
The Line: Chicago by 6.5
Is Jacksonville up for playing spoiler? Here's a prime opportunity. I guess it depends on how fully they've tuned out Jack Del Rio. I don't know, I'm kinda leaning towards Jacksonville.

No, know what? They won't be able to run the ball, they won't make a serious effort, they'll be flat overall, and they don't have the juice to win in December in cold-ass Chicago. Bears win!
Bears over Jaguars, 21-17

New England @ Seattle
The Line: New England by 4.5
New England needs this win. They need to recover some offensive mojo and get back in rhythm almost as much as they need to win the game. Seattle, on the other hand, just doesn't have any rhythm or heart or resolve. I won't say they've quit on the season, because they're still playing hard, but nothing about the way they carry themselves or play suggests they expect to win. I'll give them points for continuing the fight, but I think they expect to lose and will find a way to make it happen.
Patriots over Seahawks, 28-19

Miami @ Buffalo
The Line: Buffalo by 1
So this is the Toronto bowl. I feel bad for the Bills; with their season all but ruined, they get an indoors, fast-track "home" game against a division foe ahead of them in the standings coming off a 1-15 season. It just seems like such a set-up: Miami will probably win this game, it'll officially wreck Buffalo's season and put them below .500, and it'll just be such a sharp, stinging slap in the face to the Bills, who came into this season at the opposite end of the "reasons for optimism" spectrum from Miami. Oh well. I'm definitely taking the Dolphins. Buffalo could win, but they've looked pretty bad for a while, not counting their 100-1 demolition of the Chiefs.
Dolphins over Bills, 21-20

New York Jets @ San Francisco
The Line: Jets by 4
I really don't care. I hope San Francisco wins. In fact, I'm picking them. Hey, they're at home, right? Don't Niners fans have it in for Favre after some of the old post-season battles when he was in Green Bay? Well, here's hoping!
49ers over Jets, 20-14

Kansas City @ Denver
The Line: Denver by 8.5
Broncos win.
Broncos over Chiefs, 28.5-20

St. Louis @ Arizona
The Line: Arizona by 14
This should be Arizona's big, bad get-healthy game. They ought to roll the shit out of St. Louis. If they don't they're garbage. GARBAGE. An actual contender would flat-out demolish this Rams team in this game.

Arizona plays well enough at home. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now.
Cardinals over Rams, 35-16

Dallas @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh by 3
Wade Philips gave some of his veterans time off this week in preparation for this game.
Wade Philips gave some of his veterans time off this week in preparation for the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh.
Either this guy is the greatest genius in the history of mankind, and we'll find that out on Sunday, or he's exactly the utter, utter retard we've always feared. For a team that has a critical lack of focus, giving players time off and away from practice headed into a late-season game against the NFL's most ferocious, confusing, out-of-control aggressive defense sounds like effing suicide to me.
Hey, if it works, I'll be the first to give the guy all the credit in the world. I don't think it will work.
Steelers over Cowboys, 20-10

Washington @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 5
Hey, if Matt Bowen over at National Football Post thinks the Redskins are going to win this game, that's good enough for me. Nevermind that Matt Bowen is an ex-Redskin who couldn't possibly ooze more affection for his former team into his posts.

The Redskins win this game if they attempt 10-15 passes of greater than 20 yards and keep the Ravens under 24 points. Indy beat Baltimore by trying to gun down their secondary, the only part of Baltimore's defense that is reliably vulnerable. Jason Campbell has a bigger arm than Peyton Manning, Washington's receivers are faster, we need the game more, it's not even really a road game, and the Redskins defense is only 20 times better than Indy's.

So there. Skins win.
Redskins over Ravens, 25-17

Tampa Bay @ Carolina
The Line: Carolina by 3
Huge game. NFC South up for grabs, second place in the NFC on the line, Atlanta in hot pursuit. Carolina looked like a team that can just refuse to lose last Sunday in Green Bay. Tampa's offense looked like hammered shit at home. Again, this game comes down to Jake Delhomme not throwing the game away. I'm probably more impressed by Tampa's defense, but I have greater faith in Carolina's offense, and they've suddenly become a good home team. I'm taking Carolina and rooting hard for them.
Panthers over Bucs, 20-13

There you have it. Wild, wacky week at work, wotherfuckers. Didn't have much time to bang these out. No extras this week. No complete sentences. Must go play Madden now.

Go Skynards!

I Owned Week 13

2008-12-02T06:26:00.001-08:00

An ass-kicking 11-5 record this weekend, including brilliant gut-picks like Atlanta in San Diego and Carolina in Green Bay. My reward for another strong weekend of picks despite taking something like 10 road teams? I get to bang out some pretty short re-caps. I didn't pay a whole lot of attention to real football this holiday weekend, opting to go Madden-crazy instead.

So here we go:

Tennessee over Detroit, 47-10
My Pick: Tennessee over Detroit, 27-10
The Titans did what you might expect them to do, which is get healthy behind the ground game at the expense of the poor Lions, who had the misfortune of running up against an angry Titans team, coming off their first loss of the season, in Detroit's only nationally televised game of the season.

I really do think the Lions will go winless in 2008.

Dallas over Seattle, 34-9
My Pick: Dallas over Seattle, 34-20
Hey, two games in a row in which I pretty much caught the spirit of the affair. Seattle had just enough energy to hang around for about a quarter and get into scoring position a few times before finally crapping out. Look, nothing against Mike Holmgren, who I generally think is a damn good coach, but this team has pretty obviously quit. Do they hustle? Sure. But they look like they're going through the motions to me, especially now that Matt Hasselback is under center again. I've said it a hundred times: Hasselback is a front-runner, when things aren't going his way or he isn't comfortable he plays like a chicken-shit.

Anyway, Dallas looks like they're rounding into form, which is what you'd expect after a handful of games with Roy Williams at wide-out. Right now, if you're Wade Philips, you've got to be thinking about the 2007 New York Giants, and how it was a late season run that put them at top speed and made them so formidable in the playoffs. If the Cowboys are smart, they'll do everything they can to win all their remaining games by two touchdowns.

Philadelphia over Arizona, 41-21
My Pick: Arizona over Philadelphia, 27-21
Know what? The Cardinals are exactly the same team as the Redskins, only opposite in some small, strange ways. For instance, the Cardinals pass the ball very well, but can't seem to figure out the ground game, and it makes them one-dimensional, and it's hurting their offense badly. The Redskins run the ball very well but can't figure out the passing offense, to the same effect. Arizona can't figure out how to win on the road, whereas the Redskins can't seem to figure out how to win at home. Both teams are 7-5. The difference? The Redskins play in the NFC East, which is now 3-1 against Arizona, whereas the Cardinals play in the NFC West, where 7-5 is good enough to leave you just a game away from clinching the division. How in the hell is that fair? If the Redskins played in the NFC West, they'd be no worse than 9-3 today.

It's hard for me to care about this game one way or another. I'm done with the part of my life where I buy into anything this Philadelphia Eagles team does well on offense, so 41 points doesn't really mean shit to me. If Cincinnati put up 41 it'd mean more to me than this. The Eagles are garbage. The Cardinals, it turns out, are total pretenders. Ah well.

San Francisco over Buffalo, 10-3
My Pick: Buffalo over San Francisco, 17-10
Ouch. Quite possibly the worst loss of the season by any team.

And continuing down that thread, how in the hell did they lose this game? At home, they outgained the Niners by 155 yards. Marshawn Lynch ran for 134 yards. Buffalo had more time of possession, more drives into their opponent's territory, more drives inside the 30, more first downs, better starting field position, and fewer three-and-outs. It's a mystery. You have to try very hard to dominate a game like that, only score three points, and lose at home.

And as for Marshawn Lynch, how do you know when the whole "NFL starting tailback" thing isn't working out? When you get 134 yards on only 16 carries at home and your team puts up only 3 points and you lose. Honestly, seriously, I really like this guy, but has he had a positive impact on a single Buffalo game all season? If so, when?

Baltimore over Cincinnati, 34-3
My Pick: Baltimore over Cincinnati, 23-14
Oh, wait, this loss was pretty bad, too. Granted, nothing was on the line, but damn. 34-3? In a division game? At home? My God, the Bengals are incredibly bad. There are no fewer than 5 teams this season that genuinely belong in the discussion of worst teams of the last 25 years. Take one of these teams (Rams, Raiders, Chiefs, Bengals) and dump them in any other season since 1983 and you're looking at a strong contender for worst team in the NFL. This season? There's a hands-down worst team (the Lions), and the list of abysmal, totally dysfunctional teams runs at least 6 or 7 deep if you throw in San Francisco and Seattle. When has the NFL ever been this bottom-heavy?

And I'm oh-so-happy the Ravens are blazing at about 1000% headed into next Sunday's prime-time home game against the reeling Redskins. That's just fucking great.

Indianapolis over Cleveland, 10-6
My Pick: Indianapolis over Cleveland, 29-21
So it wasn't quite the shoot-out I thought it might be. The Browns are so beyond cooked. Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn are out for the season. That means the Browns are going into Tennessee (gulp) with (oh God no) Ken Dorsey at quarterback. I'll hit on this a bit more in my week 14 picks, but here's a teaser: I really like Ken Dorsey. He was one of the first college quarterbacks I ever really gave a shit about, I think he's an excellent dude, and I'm betting he's got a strong future ahead of him as an quarterbacks coach or offensive coordinator. But he's getting his fucking head torn off next Sunday.

As for this game, hey, Indy found a way to win. Good for them. They're sitting pretty in the wild-card chase, especially since New England and Buffalo both had their doors blown off.

Miami over St. Louis, 16-12
My Pick: Miami over St. Louis, 23-17
Miami likes to make 'em close, but at least they got the job done. But there are some things you can't do if you want to win regularly, and among them is committing 10 penalties and putting two fumbles on the ground on the road. Miami escaped with this one. A win is a win, but they need to shore that shit up.

New York Giants over Washington, 23-7
My Pick: New York Giants over Washington, 20-13
Yeah, I was about right with this one.

The word that comes to mind is "out-classed". The Giants out-classed the Redskins. As much as I hate to agree with anything John Riggins has to say about the Redskins after a loss, about this he's correct: the Giants are in a completely different class from the Redskins. They're deeper and better at just about every single position on both sides of the ball. The Giants don't have to do one particular thing especially well to beat most teams in the NFL. They can adjust and tinker and mis-fire and restart and still win going away. If this team doesn't win the Super Bowl this season, I'll be incredibly disappointed. Even the Patriots had vulnerabilities. The Patriots were not going to run the ball down your throat, nor were they going to dominate defensively. The Giants can pound you to death or they can air it out. There defense will dominate. They have better special teams than you. The Giants are better than you.

As for those poor goddamn Redskins, whatever special ingredient is needed to get the passing game going, the poor bastards just don't have it. They have to play too perfectly to score points in the passing game. That was never more evident than after this game, when Jim Zorn made a comment about how the Redskins need to score more points, and that the running game has clicked, but they just need to throw it better and catch it better. While I agree with the general sentiment of that statement, when your quarterback completes 23 passes for 232 yards and you've only put up 7 total points, it's not necessarily all execution. There's a play-calling element. There's also pass protection. Mostly, there just aren't any Redskins receivers or tight ends that can reliably go out and win individual match-ups. Malcolm Kelly, Devin Thomas, and Fred Davis might eventually be those guys. Right now, though, there's nobody. The Redskins have a group of guys that can execute extremely well, and that's to their credit. You need guys like that, and I wouldn't trade or dump a single one of them. On the other hand, there's this: Dallas has a goddamn rookie tight end with 4 touchdowns in 15 receptions. Martellus Bennett doesn't execute especially well, and the Cowboys don't ask him to. They line him up, send him more or less straight in the direction of the endzone, and throw the ball up in the air to him. He's 6'6", has long arms, jumps pretty well, and has a good chance of making a play. Sometimes, in the NFL, making the leap from efficient and methodical to explosive is as simple as giving your quarterback a guy or two who he can kinda force the ball to in important spots, even with an inaccurate throw, and the guy will make a play. Washington is tragically short in that department. The difference between guys like Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, Brett Favre, Philip Rivers, etc. and someone like Jason Campbell is that the "gunslingers" have a very high margin for error. In the case of Cutler and Favre, they bring part of that margin to the table with their arm strength. With Romo and Rivers, a huge part of the margin for error comes from the playmaking ability of their targets, the ability of those players to physically make up for slight mistakes or aggressive risks. Jason Campbell has a huge arm, he should be in that same group. The problem is there's virtually no margin for error in this offense or with these receivers. If someone told me at the beginning of the season that a huge-armed, extremely mobile quarterback would start every game for his 7-5 football team, complete 65% of his passes, and throw only 5 picks through 12 games, I would have guessed (in a heartbeat) that this quarterback would be closing in on 20 touchdowns and 3,000 yards. The math behind that is so easy, too: some of those completions are sure to be long touchdowns. Some of them are sure to be catch-and-run balls. Some of them are sure to be tight fits that his receivers just go up and take away from a defender. Some are sure to be screens or hitches or dump offs where his receiver makes a guy miss. For every, what, 6 completions that go for 5-7 yards, there's SURE to be a long gainer. For every 3 or 4 long gainers, there's SURE to be a score. For every sack, there's SURE to be a scramble for positive yardage or a first down that keeps a drive alive. When you've got a quarterback as talented and capable as Jason Campbell is, those seem like no-brainers.

None of this is intended to be a criticism of Jason Campbell, or even of Jim Zorn. My point here isn't to poke holes in the roster or the strategy or the staff or the playcalling or anything. Actually, all I'm saying is the tragic flaw of the 2008 Washington Redskins is that they aren't yet at the point, in their first year in this system, where they can cover for their own mistakes or they can go out and turn simple plays into big plays. Not in the passing game, anyway, and certainly not against good teams. Watching them play is agonizing for Redskins fans, because if Jason Campbell fails to connect on a first-down pass attempt, you know the Redskins need basically 8 yards on second down to have any kind of realistic chance to convert a third down, and you know that even if they do convert and get another first down, just the simple probability of them being able to do it four or five or even six more times to get into scoring position, and then coming up with another couple of perfectly called and perfectly executed plays once in scoring position, is incredibly slim. When the Redskins field a punt inside their own 30-yard line, I pretty much expect them to come away with nothing better than a field goal, and even that would be an accomplishment. Not because they're a lousy offensive team, but because the can't mis-fire at all, and they sure as hell can't mis-fire twice on the same drive and have any chance of scoring. Santana Moss is an electrifying player, but he's completely incapable of being the "toss it up there, he'll make a play" type of guy you absolutely must have in key situations.

In fact, this game had a few pretty interesting examples of this exact phenomenon. Eli Manning put up a few tough balls for his receivers; none of them were bad throws, but a few were 50-50 balls and another few were just demanding. Domenik Hixon went up and snagged a tough high throw in traffic early in the game, then came down with an extremely tough back shoulder sideline throw later in the game. Kevin Boss tore one away over the middle. These are the kinds of plays quarterbacks have to have. They have to be able to trust that their receivers can adjust to the ball and come up with a clutch catch. It helps when you have long, athletic targets like Boss, Hixon, and Amani Toomer, who often have a very real physical advantage over the guys covering them. Jason Campbell's deep ball to Antwan Randle El was another good example: yes, it was underthrown, but Randle El didn't adjust to it, didn't make a play on the ball, and sure as hell didn't just go up and take it away from anybody.

Now, a few other notes:

I'd like to exonerate Fred Smoot. His coverage on Amani Toomer was next-to-perfect. He stumbled a bit, but he was right on him stride-for-stride. Eli made a perfect throw. What can you do?

DeAngelo Hall has really good hands. Excellent hands. But he's a dismal tackler. He might be the worst tackler I've seen in a Redskins uniform since Deion Sanders. He needs to work on that.

Another dismal tackler, and I'm really, really sorry to say it, is Laron Landry. Holy shit, how in the hell does he even know where the ball carrier is? He spends more time looking at the turf of FedEx field than the grounds crew. I love the big hits, I love the guided-missile style, but he's got to pick his head up, stop going for the kill shot, find the ball-carrier, and wrap him up. A regular part of Redskins highlights these days is looking for the speeding bullet in white long sleeves diving across or underneath a ball-carrier like Superman, totally whiffing and taking himself completely out of the play. I love Laron Landry. I do. But it's getting out of control. He's got to play with his head on. He runs a long way from that deep cover-1 zone to just dive and miss.

Kevin Gilbride totally had Greg Blache's number on Sunday. The Giants ran a few of the more perfectly timed screens I've ever seen, not to mention the absolutely perfect Derrick Ward dump-off in the red-zone that led to Brandon Jacobs' touchdown plunge. Gilbride called a fantastic game.

Clinton Portis pretty clearly has no burst in his legs right now. That screen play made it painfully obvious. He was going about as slowly as I've seen him run ever. Rock Cartwright would have had more explosion. It couldn't be more obvious that the Redskins need a backup with some serious wheels to change the pace of the game now that Portis seems more like a workhorse who tops out at about 25 yards on any given carry.

The offensive line was much better on Sunday, but pass protection remains an issue. Campbell may have only been sacked twice, but he has to operate pretty damn quickly in the pocket, which is another reason the Redskins can't seem to get a big pass off.

That's all for this game. I'm about ready to write up the 2008 Washington Redskins. I think I totally get it now. I'm very proud of their winning record and excited about their future, but compared to other playoff caliber teams, they have a very slim margin for error and a pretty low ceiling in their current configuration. For years I've said I'd be happy with a hard-working, sharp, functional team with likable players and an innovative coach. That's what I now have, and sure enough, I'm pretty damn happy about it.

Tampa Bay over New Orleans, 23-20
My Pick: Tampa Bay over New Orleans, 31-29
There were at least two non-Redskins teams that seriously disappointed in must-win type games on Sunday. Buffalo was one, New Orleans was the other. They outgained the Bucs, held onto the ball longer, had more first downs, converted a far higher number and percentage of third downs, registered a greater number of sacks, were more efficient in the red-zone, and had fewer fumbles. The difference? Drew friggin' Brees, who chose just about the worst possible time to torpedo his MVP campaign. Drew Brees and penalties. It kinda rhymes if you say it just right.

That was a big win for the Bucs. They played poorly on offense, especially in the passing game, but they earned a typical Tampa Bay style victory, where it's impossible to know how it happened and you come away hating them all the more and even less confident in their chances of actually doing anything in the playoffs. Still, a win is a win, and they're still atop the NFC South. Good for them.

Carolina over Green Bay, 35-31
My Pick: Carolina over Green Bay, 31-29
Did I nail it or what? Man was that a solid pick!

DeAngelo Williams, y'all. Hey, anybody else notice how I spell the name DeAngelo the same way for everyone, regardless of how it might actually be spelled? I can do that. Know why? Because nobody's reading this piece of shit anyhow.

Two things . . . well, three: first, can we finally write off the goddamn Packers. I like this team, but they're out of it. Fork 'em. They find ways to lose. One week it's turnovers. The next it's bad defense. They don't have it this year. Second, folks in Green Bay probably still feel like they have a good team, and it's true. At every position except tailback the Packers have quality players they can hang onto. Next season, they'll be right back at the top of the North. Third, I'm not looking at or listening to any media coverage of anything sports related this week, so I won't be able to confirm this guess, but I'd wager the 5-7 Packers are ranked higher than the 7-5 Redskins in ESPN's Power Rankings after week 13. Those bastards love a talented young white quarterback. That's not meant to be a knock against Aaron Rodgers, who might be my second favorite quarterback in the NFL. My money's on this, though: if the Redskins were 5-7, had no running game and a mediocre, underperforming defense, folks around Washington would be all sunny as hell if there was a goofy white kid under center putting up 290 yards and 2 scores every Sunday. Chicks dig the passing game. NFL fans have gone all retarded. Fantasy Football is ruining our collective football savvy.

Atlanta over San Diego, 22-16
My Pick: Atlanta over San Diego, 28-23
Thank God that debacle is over. And of course, by "debacle" I'm referring to the 2008 San Diego Chargers. What a joke. 16 points at home in a must-win game is one thing, but coming out completely flat and lifeless and not giving a damn, that's unforgivable. And it's about what you'd expect from a Norv Turner team.

And the Falcons have now officially morphed into a terrifying NFL monster. They went from being plucky and competitive to the kind of team you confidently pick to win an opponent's must-win game at home. Roddy White is a legit number one NFL receiver. In fact, Roddy White is now what Chad Johnson was and ought to have stayed: a long, speedy guy who has a ton of success on deep balls and out-routes and has a ton of chemistry with his quarterback. If White can stay humble, he could be a long-term hero in Atlanta and turn in a fine NFL career. Michael Turner is a horse, he's definitely the guy, and it speaks to the character of Turner and especially Jerrius Norwood that those guys are as content as they are in complementing each other. Matt Ryan is a beast. Their offensive line is coming together. They're getting good production from other offensive weapons. The defense is improving every week. This Falcons team is very, very good.

The Chargers, on the other hand, are garbage. They're like the Sith version of the Falcons, spoiled and wasted. They've got complimentary backs but don't use them that way. They've got a sharp young passer, but he's too cocky and brash for his own good. They've got long, fast, talented receivers, but they don't show up and don't produce. The offensive line underperforms. The defense is dazed and sluggish. They're the football equivalent of Jose Canseco: a flashy, attractive package that only knows how to swing for the fences, can't do any of the little things, is utterly hollow, totally overrated, and completely air-headed. I hate the Chargers.

Denver over New York Jets, 34-17
My Pick: New York Jets over Denver, 41-21
I was way wrong about this one. The Jets are fake. They had a great run there, they're certainly dangerous, and maybe they have enough juice to get hot again, stay a contender, and make a run. On the other hand, I actually feel like the more time this team spends together, the more the rest of the NFL will figure them out, and the more their weaknesses will be exposed.

As for Denver, hey, they're that much closer to securing the division crown, and this at least looks like a legitimate win. The Jets were the hottest team in football and the Broncos took 'em down in New York. That's an accomplishment. These might be two of my least favorite teams in football, but that doesn't make this any less impressive a win.

Pittsburgh over New England, 33-10
My Pick: New England over Pittsburgh, 24-23
Wrong here, too. And I'm now about ready to buy the 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers. They owned the be-Jesus out of the Patriots. This was a back-alley ass-kicking. I guess we can all hop off the Matt Cassel bandwagon right about now. He was worse than garbage. He was garbage juice. 2 picks, 2 fumbles, 169 yards in 39 attempts, less than 50% passing. Ouch.

This was a big statement for Pittsburgh. Week 14's Dallas/Pittsburgh match-up should be hugely entertaining.

Kansas City over Oakland, 20-13
My Pick: Oakland over Kansas City, 75-72
If the NFL were Chinese and we lived in the 19th century, everyone associated with the Oakland Raiders and all their fans would have to march out to the town square and cram long, sharp swords into their own hearts. Losing to the Chiefs is like having sex with a dead body or something. Anyway, it's bad. Especially when it happens at home.

Minnesota over Chicago, 34-14
My Pick: Minnesota over Chicago, 37-27
Full disclosure: the only reason I picked the Vikings was because I needed a home team. My reasoning was sound, though; I picked against the Bears because NFC North games almost never end with the better team winning. Most of the time, the better team plays too conservatively and the crappier team plays bitter, vengeful football. Minnesota won because they're not the better team. Only in the NFC North.

Houston over Jacksonville, 30-17
My Pick: Houston over Jacksonville, 24-21
Now there's a team that's quit on the season and tuned out the head coach. Jacksonville had no interest whatsoever in competing on Monday night. This was a 23-3 football game, and it should have stayed that way. Jacksonville put a few meaningless scores up in the final 5 minutes, but it was way, way, way over before then. Houston dominated Jacksonville. Houston doesn't dominate anybody. They don't dominate their own practice squad. Jacksonville effing sucks. What a huge, huge disappointment this season has been for the Jaguars. There isn't a single part of this football team that has performed well this season. Not one unit, not one player, not one coach, not one strategy, nothing. The running game has been mediocre at best. David Garrard has been a non-factor for all but about 10 minutes of this season. The defense took an enormous step backwards. The receiving corps, loaded as it is with talented guys, hasn't looked like the same unit from one game to the next, owing at least in part to the fact that the coaches seem hell bent on playing musical chairs with the wide-outs. Jacksonville's playcalling and offensive identity have been abysmal since week 1. The Jaguars are a 'roided out, macho-facade having butter-soft, spineless, noncompetitive train-wreck. Booooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!

That, folks, is my whole week 13 recap, started at 10am Tuesday morning and finished 98 minutes later. I'll have some picks up by Thursday afternoon, and I'll maybe throw in an extra or something for good measure.

Peace!

Playoffs, Anyone?

2008-11-29T15:45:00.000-08:00

Your NFC Playoff Picture for 2008:

NFC Regular Season Champs
New York Giants
Headed down the home stretch, the Giants win 3 of their final 5 games to finish an NFC-best 13-3, securing the top seed in the NFC playoffs.

NFC South Champs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
At 11-5, the Bucs take the competitive NFC South by a game over Carolina and secure the NFC's second seed by winning 3 of their final 5 games, including a week 17 snore-fest at home against Oakland.

NFC West Champs
Arizona Cardinals
Despite ESPN's best efforts to convince us otherwise, by the start of the playoffs most fans will have figured out that the Cardinals were only good enough to win 10 games despite playing in the weakest overall division in football. The Cardinals finish up with 3 of four games at home, and sweep all three.

NFC North Champs
Chicago Bears
The Bears finish in a tie at 9-7 with the Vikings, have an identical division record and a tie in head to head match-ups, but a better conference record gives them the nod and the NFC's fourth seed. Chicago's in with home-wins over Jacksonville, New Orleans, and Green Bay sandwiched between week 13 and week 17 losses to Minnesota and Houston, respectively.

NFC Wild Card
Washington Redskins
Washington finds itself in a wild-card spot despite an 11-5 record. Washington's in after splitting their series against fellow east-coast playoff contenders New York and Baltimore, and then finishing strong with 3 straight wins over doormats Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and San Francisco.

NFC Wild Card
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas finishes strong with 5 wins in their last 7 games, including impressive home victories over the Giants and Ravens in consecutive weeks. 10-6 is good enough to get them in over Carolina by virtue of a much better conference mark.

We Can't Fucking Believe We're on the Outside!
Carolina Panthers
10-6 isn't good enough for a wild-card, and the fifth and sixth losses come back-to-back in road losses to the Giants and Saints in the final two weeks. It's enough to save John Fox's job, but not enough to get them in the postseason.

Atlanta Falcons
The miraculous 2008 season of the Atlanta Falcons comes to an end after they drop 3 of their final 5, including road losses in San Diego, New Orleans, and Minnesota. A week 17 demolition of the Rams in Atlanta is good for style points, but ultimately comes too late to secure the final wild-card slot. Mike Smith goes on to win Coach of the Year.

Minnesota Vikings
Will 9-7 be enough to save Brad Childress' job? Wait and see. Minnesota dumps Chicago, Detroit, and Atlanta, but can't get past the Cardinals in Arizona, nor the Giants in New York. Either win would have secured them a division title and put them past the wild-card. Maybe Childress gets dumped after all.

New Orleans Saints
The Saints finish strong, winning 3 of 5 including consecutive home wins over Detroit and Carolina to end the season, making them the fourth team in the NFC South to finish the season above .500. 9-7 isn't enough for the post-season, but Sean Payton is safe for now.

Green Bay Packers
Even down the home stretch, with the playoffs within reach, the Packers can't string wins together and wind up dropping consecutive road games in Jacksonville and Chicago, setting up a meaningless home obliteration of the Lions in week 17. 8-8 might be a decent record, but in this wacky 2008 season, it lands the Packers 11th overall in the NFC.

Philadelphia Eagles
8-7-1 might be the kind of garbage Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid argue is a successful season in the NFC, but it won't save either of their jobs. A 12th place finish in the NFC and that embarrassing tie with Cincinnati are too much to overcome. Down the stretch, Philly dumps Arizona and Dallas in impressive fashion, but goes on the road and gets throttled in both New York and Washington, dropping their division record to 1-5.

Garbage! Human Garbage!
St. Louis Rams
The Rams muster a decent stretch after absorbing their 5th straight loss in week 15, dropping both Seattle and San Francisco in St. Louis before losing their 12th game of the season in the final week, a one-sided mauling in Atlanta.

San Francisco 49ers
The Niners tune Mike Singletary all the way out down the home stretch and drop every game left on their schedule, including a demoralizing, season-ending home destruction at the hands of a desperate Redskins team. A 3-13 record and a nasty season-ending stretch ensures the good folks in charge of the franchise don't ask Singletary back.

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle plays just as poorly down the stretch as they have all season, lose every remaining game, and send Mike Holmgren into retirement on a sour note. Seattle's 2-14 record will at least get Jim Mora Jr. a high draft pick to start his tenure.

Detroit Lions
The Lions do the unthinkable, finishing the 2008 regular season with an 0-16 record. Virtually everything in the organization is scrapped and replaced headed into 2009.

And now, the AFC:

AFC Regular Season Champs
Tennessee Titans
A week 13 tune up against the awful Lions gets the Titans back on track, and they pound out 4 consecutive wins before shutting it down mid-way through a week 17 match-up against the desperate Colts. 14 wins give the Titans a narrow conference lead over the surging Jets and earn them homefield throughout.

AFC East Champs
New York Jets
The Jets continue their dominant run, adding five more consecutive wins down the stretch to finish the season. With road games in San Francisco and Seattle, New York's only real challanges come in home games against division rivals Buffalo and Miami. The Jets win both and cruise to a decisive AFC East crown.

AFC North Champs
Baltimore Ravens
An incredibly unlikely regular season ends with a division title and a trip to the postseason for the 11-5 Ravens, who surge through the final 5 weeks with only a single loss, in Dallas in week 16. A hard-fought week 15 home win over division rival Pittsburgh puts Baltimore in the driver's seat, and they hold on to finish the season. John Harbaugh would win Coach of the Year in any other season, but comes in a close second to Mike Smith.

AFC West Champs
San Diego Chargers
Thanks to tough home wins over Atlanta and Denver and a pair of back-to-back patsies in weeks 14 and 15, the awful, terrible, underachieving Chargers stumble to shameful division title and spot in the playoffs at 8-8. After a short stay in the playoffs, the Chargers clean house, dumping their coaching staff and General Manager A. J. Smith.

AFC Wild Card
Indianapolis Colts
After struggling much of the season to hang around .500 and stay in the hunt, the Colts put it together down the stretch and come away with a stron 11-5 record, good for second in the AFC South and a wild-card spot. The schedule down the stretch is favorable, and the Colts clean up against doormats Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Detroit before splitting their final two games against Jacksonville and Tennessee.

AFC Wild Card
New England Patriots
A strong push to end the regular season earns New England an 11-5 mark and the final AFC playoff spot. With tough home wins over Pittsburgh and Arizona sandwiched around pushover road victories against Seattle and Oakland, the Patriots are able to stay ahead of the Steelers and Dolphins, even with a week 17 loss in Buffalo to end the regular season.

This Shit is So Unfair!
Pittsburgh Steelers
Before they know it, the Steelers suddenly find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture despite a decent 10-6 record, making them the second AFC North team in two season to miss the playoffs after winning 10 games. Pittsburgh is only able to pound out wins against Dallas and Cleveland at home in their final five, dropping road dates in New England, Baltimore, and Tennessee.

Miami Dolphins
An incredible season comes to an end in Miami with the Dolphins on the outside of the playoff picture despite a 9-7 mark. Miami finishes strong, winning 3 of 5 games, but crucial road division losses at Buffalo and New York ultimately seal the deal.

Buffalo Bills
Like the NFC South, the AFC East finds all four teams above .500, as even the last-place Bills manage a 9-7 record by winning 3 of their final 5. While crummy San Diego is getting drilled in the wild-card round, two very good AFC East teams are watching from home.

Denver Broncos
The up-and-down season comes to an end with the Broncos losing a tie-breaker to the Chargers in the AFC West and well-outside the wild-card picture. The Broncos controlled their own destiny but choked down the stretch, dropping road games against the Jets, the Panthers, and tha Chargers to finish 8-8.

Hideous, Horrible Atrocities
Jacksonville Jaguars
The struggles continue, with the Jags dropping 3 of their final 5 games of the season to finish 6-10. Two impressive home wins over Indianapolis and Green Bay show what this team is capable of, but disappointing road losses to Houston, Chicago, and Baltimore keep Jacksonville well on the outside of the playoff picture.

Houston Texans
2008 must be seen as a step backward for the 6-10 Texans, despite showing continued growth on the offensive side of the ball and some promise on defense. Houston sandwiches three straight losses between a pair of home victories and lands near the bottom of the AFC yet again.

Cleveland Browns
Major changes follow the finish of a disappointing 5-11 season in Cleveland. The Browns manage only a single win in their final five games, an unwatchable mess of a home victory over the hapless Cincinnati Bengals.

Oakland Raiders
The Raiders manage to finish relatively strong (for them) winning 2 of 5, with home victories over the Chiefs and Texans. Tom Cable will not return as Oakland's head coach in 2009.

Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals continue their dismal decline all the way until week 17, when an embarrassing home date against the equally abysmal Kansas City Chiefs gives them their second win of the 2008 season. Somehow, someway, it's enough for Marvin Lewis to keep his job.

Kansas City Chiefs
The less said about this mess, the better. Kansas City loses every game the rest of the way, including 3 straight division contests to finish 1-15. Amid threats of major rioting in downtown Kansas City, the organization reluctantly fires the worst coach in NFL history and smartly deals away the second overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft.

There you have it, folks. I looked into my crystal ball and that's how it'll all end up.

Actually, the formula was simple: good teams won their home games. Bad teams only won home games against other bad teams. I did the same thing last season and got every playoff team except one. I had the 10-6 Browns in over the Titans, but the Browns fell short. In other words, it may be imperfect, but it came damn close once and that's good enough for now. If it sucks ass in 2008, I'll come up with something better for 2009.

Go Skynards!

Week 13 Pix

2008-11-25T12:32:00.000-08:00

Here we go!

Tennessee @ Detroit
The Line: Tennessee by 11
Detroit is dead meat on Thursday. Like a turkey. Get it?

It's a funny thing about sports: when you have a disappointing loss, you're allowed to get "revenge" on the next sad-sack piece of shit team you play. There's something horribly wrong, yet terribly funny about Detroit getting beat up and humiliated as "revenge" for the Jets winning in Tennessee.

I'll say this, though: Tennessee hasn't been playing their best football for weeks now. Objectively, without taking a grand view of their record, I don't think they're actually one of the three or four best teams in the NFL. At their best, they're a team that can dominate defensively, run the ball extremely well, and not turn the ball over in the passing game. Pittsburgh, at their best, is all that plus 350 yards passing and 3 touhdowns. The same can be said of the Jets, the Giants, the Panthers, even the Cowboys. I'm not saying the Cowboys are better than the Titans, not in a million years. Alls I'm saying is the Titans have been primed for getting exposed for a few weeks now, and it finally happened. They need to get their mojo back, and they couldn't be in a better position than traveling to Detroit on Thanksgiving to ream the be-Jesus out of the awful, train-wreck Lions. It should be ugly.
Titans over Lions, 27-10

Seattle @ Dallas
The Line: Dallas by 12.5
Seattle can expect to have something brown crammed up their gaping asses. Like stuffing in a turkey. Get it?

Hey, who wants to take bets on whether or not Seattle will follow San Francisco's lead and give Terrell Owens 10 yards of space at the line of scrimmage on Thursday?

Actually, that could be an interesting thing to watch in this game, now that I think about it. Dallas had a big offensive explosion on Sunday, and if you weren't watching closely, it might seem like they solved all their offensive woes against the Niners. On the other hand, as I mentioned in my week 12 recap, they didn't run the ball well at all and Tony Romo actually wasn't sharp at all except for his deep connections with Owens. So what happens when Marcus Trufant starts the game in T.O.'s grill, disrupts him at the line, and Seattle's still-pretty-decent pass rush bears down on Romo while he looks for his other options? I guess what I'm saying here is the Cowboys will probably take a page from the Redskins versus Seattle and load up on Marion Barber's back. It's a good strategy. If they don't do it, who knows, this could be an interesting game. There's no way Dallas' defense is as good as Washington's. I'm just saying, keep an eye on this game. With as well as San Fransisco moved the ball against Dallas on Sunday, if they hadn't given up T.O.'s wet dream, they would have been in that game.

I'm predicting a Dallas blowout. But I'm putting it out there, just in case.
Cowboys over Seahawks, 34-20

Arizona @ Philadelphia
The Line: Philadelphia by 3
A win here wraps up the division for Arizona, so every win after this game would be . . . you got it, gravy. Like on a turkey. Get it?

I'm so tempted to take Arizona. Philadelphia has been so, so bad in their last two games, especially on offense. Baltimore's defense will do that to you, but Cincinnati? Not so much. Arizona is somewhere between the two, but they've got this going for them: they pressure the pocket well and they hit. I also kinda like the idea of this being a revenge game for Arizona, coming off their first loss at home and their third against the NFC East (that's right, we own your ass, motherfuckers). I like the idea of them going to Philadelphia, in front of an ornery, half-dead Philly crowd as angry at the home team as they are hungry for a victory, and pulverizing the Eagles into a chunky sludge. Like mashed potatoes. If there's anybody stupid enough to think the Eagles could still challenge for something this season, that'd be the end of that. I really want that to happen.

In order for Arizona to win, first, they need to protect Kurt Warner and make Donovan McNabb work in the pocket. If they can get a running game going, so much the better. I really like their chances. I've been sucked into believing in the 2008 Cardinals, but that will go into serious doubt if they can't take care of business against a wounded, flailing Philly team just begging to be euthanized. Euthanized and rubbed with butter, stuffed with bread, roasted to 155 degrees for the white meat and 185 for the dark, then carved and slathered with delicious gravy. Like a turkey.

Philly could win. Sure. But who knows what Philly team is going to show up. I know this: if McNabb struggles early and that crowd gets to booing, forget about the Eagles. McNabb is so ready to make it official in Philadelphia, no way he's battling both the Cardinals and the home crowd four days after being benched for the first time in his career. Forget that.

Hey, know what? Because they're favored, I'm calling it an upset special. Cards win!
Cardinals over Eagles, 27-21

San Francisco @ Buffalo
The Line: Buffalo by 7
Now here's a game to not care about. Buffalo might technically still be in the hunt for a wild card. Hell, they might technically have a shot at the division. That don't mean shit to me. I'm more or less done with the Bills in 2008.

Now, if they were to run up another shameful obliteration on Sunday, that might change things. They endured a truly nauseating 5-game losing streak that pretty much crushed their momentum and threw the whole organization into doubt, and the only way back from such a devastating blow might be a pair of back-to-back gruesome annihilations. If the Bills fight back to 7-5 behind a pair of resounding dominations, they might just recover enough swagger to make it a sprint to the finish of the regular season.

And they could flatten the Niners. As every week passes, the Niners have less and less to play for. They got pounded pretty good on Sunday, this is the second of two consecutive road games, and this one is all the way across the country in colder 'n hell Buffalo.

Alright, so here's the pick: Buffalo is favored by 7. San Francisco is sure to be worn out, so they probably won't do much on offense. It'll be cold, so Buffalo probably won't be up for another 50-point explosion. Buffalo by 7, fairly low scoring.
Bills over 49ers, 17-10

Baltimore @ Cincinnati
The Line: Baltimore by 7
I think this'll be another wipe out. Cincinnati is terrible.

Baltimore could probably win this game even if, instead of playing offense, they just punted the ball back to Cincinnati on every first down.

I really don't have anything to say about this game. Baltimore will win.
Ravens over Bengals, 23-14

Indianapolis @ Cleveland
The Line: Indianapolis by 4.5
Look who the Colts have beaten in their 4-game winning streak: the Chargers in San Diego, the Texans at home (just beat the Browns in Cleveland), the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and New England at home. What chance do the goddamn Browns have? None. Zero chance.

Indianapolis is rolling. Or, at any rate, they're doing what could be called rolling when you're as banged up and rusty as the Colts currently are. They're bouncing. Rumbling.

Cleveland needs to focus first on just getting some kind of offensive rhythm going. Where has the running game gone? Why wouldn't the Browns be able to run the ball against the Texans? Why would Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson play so, so poorly against Houston's defense? The Browns need something positive. A home win over the Colts would be very positive. Since that isn't going to happen, they'll have to settle for trying to put together a respectable offensive showing. Indy's defense isn't very strong. Give the fans something to be happy about. Complete some passes, run the ball at least a little bit, score a few touchdowns. You'll lose, but dammit, look respectable when you do it.
Colts over Browns, 29-21

Miami @ St. Louis
The Line: Miami by 8
You know, I'm not having a hard time with these picks. I see Miami going hog-wild in St. Louis.

I could be wrong. I've already picked 4 road teams. Generally speaking, that's lunacy. Still, how the hell do you pick the Rams? I can't identify a single thing this team does well. They don't run well, they don't protect, the don't pass well, the defense is just awful, and they have a way of getting flat-out annihilated in the first half of football games. Miami, on the other hand, hey, they're due a little pay-it-forward revenge too, aren't they? What's a good term for that? Forevenge? Miami is out for forevenge.

So I like the Dolphins.
Dolphins over Rams, 23-17

New York Giants @ Washington
The Line: New York Giants by 3.5
Here it is, folks. If there's a little pendulum that swings to and fro and determines things like revenge, forevenge, karma, etc., here's where it breaks, no shatters, and utterly betrays the Washington Redskins. The Redskins want revenge for week 1. They're also due some forevenge for 2 straight home losses in big games. They didn't get caught looking ahead in Seattle. Generally, that's a good sign. And none of it will matter, not even a little bit. Because the Redskins are going down. They're going down hard.

Look, I think we've established that I love the Redskins. I love them too much, perhaps. I love the Redskins like I hate the AFC West. And it's because of this love that I need to lay this one out early and honestly. If I go into this game with even a little hope that the Redskins will win, I will probably not be alive come Monday morning.

I'm extremely proud of the 2008 Washington Redskins. They're nothing if not overachievers. I love their discipline, I love their attitude, I really respect their humble, tortoise-like determination. I love an underdog, and the Redskins are good, lovable underdogs. The problem, in this match-up, is the Redskins might be a bit too tortoise-like. The Giants are not the hare. The Giants are the fully-loaded 18-wheeler. If the Redskins come out like humble, lovable tortoises against the Giants, they'll get smeared up 300 yards of interstate.

I'm hesitant to invoke the emotion of the Sean Taylor ceremony in calculating my final score. On the one hand, it's just possible that the emotion of the moment will lift the Redskins crowd and their performance to another level. On the other hand, it's extremely tacky to hope for such a thing, and I cannot and will not include any such thing in my expectations for the way this team plays on Sunday. The fact is, Sean Taylor was a real guy who really died, and he really was a friend and teammate to these guys. They're allowed to process that information any way they end up doing it. Now, I'm not giving them a pre-emptive excuse for a loss, but I'll say this: if my friend died, and a year later I showed up to work after a memorial service and had a shite day because I was all emotionally fucked up, well, screw you if you have a problem with that.

So here it is: if Washington wants any chance of winning this game, they absolutely must win the line of scrimmage. Running the ball well will be essential, if only because it'll keep the Giants from pinning their ears back in the defensive front. In the passing game, it would be a very good time to work in a healthy dose of the screens, slip-screens, draw plays, shovel passes, and play-fakes that have been peppered into Washington's play-calling through 11 games. I can't stress this enough, Washington cannot be in many long must-pass situations, especially not if they're behind. And the only way they can expect to hit any long pass plays is if they manage to frustrate or discourage New York's pass-rush. For that to happen, they need to run the ball well, or at least often, and they need to slow the rush by hitting quick plays behind it.

Defensively, hey, know what? I'm not all that worried about New York's offense. It's time for Washington's defense to get a little respect, dammit. The Redskins have the NFL's third ranked defense, better than New York. They're better against the pass and only 5 yards worse against the run. Washington's defense will do a respectable job if healthy. If they can give the offense a short field a few times and maybe force a turnover or two, hey, then they've really given themselves a chance.

It's also important that the Redskins not come out slow again. They've been bad in the first quarter on offense for a few weeks now. It's especially bad because Washington's defense has been at it's best, or at least it's feistiest, in the early part of games. For Washington to have a chance, they need their defense to come out fired up and win the line of scrimmage in the early part of the game, and they need their offense to take advantage. If they can put the Giants in a hole and take away the run a little bit, they'll give themselves an even better chance.

Okay, to keep from talking myself into picking the Redskins, I'm going to stop now. The Giants are going to win the game. Hopefully it won't be too bad a blowout.
Giants over Redskins, 20-13

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
The Line: Tampa Bay by 3.5
This is an interesting game. Let's get one thing out of the way: I'll be rooting like a mad-man for the Saints. Yes, I'm sick of them. No, I don't want them in the playoffs. But I just don't like those Bucs, and I'd rather the Panthers win the South, and I'd rather the Bucs lose out and miss the playoffs.

Last time these teams met, in week 1, the Saints pulled out a close, relatively low-scoring game in which Brees put up another damn efficient outing, going 23 of 32 for 343 yards, 3 scores, and a pick. I think it's safe to say he won't be too befuddled by the Tampa-2. And this game obviously means a lot more to the Saints than the Bucs. On the other hand, horrible old Brian Griese was starting at quarterback for the Bucs in week 1. Tampa's offense is . . . what, 100 times better with Jeff Garcia back there?

Just when I think it might be possible to pick the Saints, there's this, and this really made the decision for me: the Saints are 1-4 on the road in 2008, whereas the Bucs are 5-0 at home. No way in hell I'm picking New Orleans, one of the NFL's worst "good" road teams, to beat one of the NFL's 3 undefeated home teams. Forget it.
Bucs over Saints, 31-29

Carolina @ Green Bay
The Line: Green Bay by 3
Ah, fuck this game.

The Panthers have a tough road to the playoffs, now that they're in second place in the NFC South. That loss to the Falcons was a killer. Check this out: the Panthers have 3 road games left on their schedule: at Green Bay this week, at the Giants in week 16, and at New Orleans in week 17. They'll probably be underdogs in all three. Their two remaining home games are against the 8-3 Bucs and the 6-5 Broncos. By my math, for Carolina to win the South, they need to win 3 of those games and have the Bucs drop 3 of 5. Again, by my math, if the Panthers finish at 10-6, they will not get a wild-card berth. That's how I worked it out. I'll show you my math later, but there it is. A week ago, this was maybe the third best team in the NFL; now, they need to win one of three extremely tough road games and sweep two tough home games and get help from Tampa Bay to win the South, and if they don't win one of those road games or somehow drop a home game, they're all the way out of the playoffs. The NFC is friggin' bananas in 2008. I have a 10-6 and three 9-7s not making the playoffs from the NFC. Nuts.

So this is a huge game for Carolina. If they can find a way to go into Green Bay and come out with a win, it won't be smooth sailing by any stretch of the imagination, but it'll give them more of a margin for error in those final two weeks of the season when they travel to two more playoff hopefuls.

As for Green Bay, look, if they want any chance of winning the NFC North, they basically can't afford to drop more than one more game the rest of the way. They play 3 of 5 at home, and this is the toughest of the three. A loss here doesn't necessarily wrap it up, but do they really want to be in a situation of having to win out just to have a chance? Green Bay hasn't been able to put together any kind of solid stretch all year, and in order for them to have even a hope of making the playoffs, they'll need one to finish the regular season. It starts Sunday afternoon!

I have no faith in Jake Delhomme. He's killing the Panthers lately. Drew Brees made mincemeat out of Green Bay's tough secondary. Jake Delhomme ain't no Drew Brees. If Delhomme doesn't break out of his funk and start protecting the ball, the Panthers will lose this game and it'll be damn close to panic time in Carolina.

Here's how I see this game going: the Packers are going to have to sling the ball a lot, because it's extremely unlikely that Ryan Grant is going to do much against (anyone ever) Carolina's run defense. If the Packers can get up early and force the Panthers away from the running game, it'll be all she wrote for Carolina. On the other hand, if Aaron Rodgers turns the ball over or takes some hits or can't find a rhythm, and Carolina is able to use their running game to keep Green Bay's offense on the bench, it could get really ugly for the Packers. You saw what happened on Monday night when they had to do a lot of scoring in a hurry. It wasn't pretty, and the Saints defense is nothing like Carolina's.

I'm reluctant to give the edge to the team that won't be able to run the ball, is under .500, and just gave up 51 points to a team I don't take seriously at all. I like the Packers. I'd prefer they win the game. But they've been killing my picks pretty much all season, and I think I'm done picking them for a while. I'd rather they win, but the safe pick is Carolina, even on the road.
Panthers over Packers, 27-23

Atlanta @ San Diego
The Line: San Diego by 5.5
San Diego's defense is crap. Atlanta has a strong, two-headed monster of a running game, a solid, big-play passing game, they're stingy with the ball, they take advantage of opportunities, and they get good field position from having a pretty damn underrated defense and good special teams. Atlanta is the anti-San Diego: they're perhaps the NFL's biggest overachievers. God, karma, and Santa Claus all want Atlanta to win this game. So do I.

And I think they will. ESPN and some other parts of the national sports media may not have caught on yet, but even Jay Novacek (worst NFL analyst of all time) has finally realized that the San Diego Chargers aren't even a little bit better than their record. San Diego has the same record as Houston, the same record as Cleveland, the same record as Jacksonville. They're only a game better than Oakland. And that's who they are. They stink. At home, on the road, in division, out of division, in and out of the AFC, they're crap. They're poorly coached, they're apathetic, they're overrated, they don't do anything especially well, and they buy into their own hype more than any other team in the NFL other than Dallas.

I fully expect Atlanta to win this game. I see them running the ball well, working the play-action passing game, getting after it on special teams, winning both lines of scrimmage, and generally just hustling more and wanting it more than San Diego. San Diego, led by Norv Turner (and all his excuses) and the smirking Philip Rivers, doesn't have the heart to battle a character team like the Falcons.

At least, that's how I hope it goes. I'm not fooling myself, though; the Chargers still have some talent on offense and they are at home and they could win. The thing is, on a neutral field I'd probably pick Atlanta to win 9 of 10 games. Here's the funny part: though Atlanta is on the east coast and San Diego is a dismal west-to-east team, I'd actually like San Diego's chances more in Atlanta, even as well as the Falcons play at home. Why? Because one of the big problems with this Chargers team is how flat they are. It's a hallmark of a Norv Turner team. At home, they expect to win. They expect it to be easy. They're not prepared to come out and fly around and kick the shit out of somebody for four full quarters. On the road, in hostile Atlanta, I'd expect those few players on the Chargers with any pride to be at least a little fired up, in spite of Turner's best efforts, just by the challenge of it all. In San Diego, I expect the Falcons to be hungier, sharper, more focused, and better prepared. I lived all the way through Turner's tenure in Washington, I remember all too well how flat his teams were at home, even in big games. They were also flat on the road, sure, but at home it was sometimes like they were drugged or in a daze. They'd float around like zombies with puzzled looks on their faces, they'd be sucking wind and reeling by the end of the first half, and generally speaking, Norv was powerless to get them to adjust or sober up for more than one good drive in the second half. Against hungry, tough, sharp teams, it was never enough.

So I'm picking the Falcons, on the road, all the way across the country. They're always tougher, always sharper, always hungier, always more prepared. And then there's that Norv Turner edge.
Falcons over Chargers, 28-23

Now, before I go a single pick further, I'd like to point out that I've now picked 8 of 11 possible road teams. Have the wheels come all the way off my 2008 NFL picks? What the hell's going on here? I'm tempted, very, VERY tempted, to go back and reverse my pick on that Carolina/Green Bay game. Maybe the Arizona/Philly game. Maybe even the Atlanta/San Diego pick I just made. This is a friggin' debacle. I'm going down in flames in week 13.

Denver @ New York Jets
The Line: New York Jets by 8
Here's one I don't have to worry about. I'll be shocked if the Jets lose this game. There's always the "trap game" possibility, after such a huge road win in week 12. It's possible. Jay Cutler could get hot again. You never know.

I really don't care about this game at all. I bullshitted my way through 5 paragraphs of Falcons/Chargers, I earned the right to give the finger to this massacre-in-the-making.
Jets over Broncos, 41-21

Pittsburgh @ New England
The Line: New England by 1
Pittsburgh would love to get sweet, sweet revenge on this Patriots team for whupping 'em pretty good in what was supposed to be a competitive game in 2007. And I do think the Steelers are not just a much better team than in 2007, but a much better team than even 4 weeks ago. They've tinkered around with their passing game to take some pressure off their offensive line, and it's helping open things up for Ben Roethlisberger.

Weather will not be a factor in this game, no matter how cold or blustery it ends up being. Pittsburgh plays in a goddamn nuthouse of elements at Hines Field. A game in Antarctica would be favorable. Ultimately, Pittsburgh's defense is charged with the same task they failed miserably at last season; find a way to address New England's spread offense. The 3-4 is good at a lot of things, but defending 4 and 5 receiving options ain't one of them. If they can't get pressure on Matt Cassel before he gets comfortable dumping the ball off, they'll be in trouble.

Now, I happen to be more intimidated by Pittsburgh's defense than just about any in football. I have tons of faith in their ability to push around just about any offense in football. It will not surprise me at all if Matt Cassel implodes utterly under the pressure he's sure to face Sunday afternoon. In order for me to pick the Steelers (another road team), though, I'd have to be pretty damn certain whatever they have planned to take away New England's offense is superior to whatever Josh McRoberts and Bill Belichick have cooked up to confuse and attack the other way. I'm not certain. Not at all. Not after the way New England shredded to smithereens Miami's 3-4 on Sunday.

So I'm picking the Patriots. Again, I'm rooting against this pick, but I think the Pats are a safe pick at home.
Patriots over Steelers, 24-23

Kansas City @ Oakland
The Line: Oakland by 3
I thought about checking to see when either of these teams was last favored in a game. Then I thought about looking at stats or records or doing any sort of actual thinking about the match-up so as to make an educated pick. But you know what? This is possibly the worst game left on the NFL schedule in 2008, and I can't waste even 10 minutes coming up with this pick. I'm taking the home team by the spread, and I don't care, and I'm not watching the highlights unless a comet rockets down into Oakland and obliterates the stadium.
Raiders over Chiefs, 75-72

Chicago @ Minnesota
The Line: Minnesota by 3.5
Here's the thing: I think Chicago is ten times better than Minnesota. Better coach, better quarterback, better special teams, more cohesive, better. Just better.

I'm picking the Vikings, and here's why: because Chicago is better and I want them to win the North, but they play in the North, which means they aren't clutch and won't ever take care of business. Because the Vikings are phony and fatally flawed but they play in the North too, so they're sure to stick a thorn in the side of the better team and throw the whole thing into a blender for another few weeks.

And these teams will probably combine for 200 points.
Vikings over Bears, 37-27

Jacksonville over Houston
The Line: Houston by 3
Don't know, don't care. I never would have predicted that a week 13 Monday night game between two AFC South teams would be completely irrelevant. Well, here it is.
Home team by 3.
Texans over Jaguars, 24-21

I'll have more later in the week. I actually did the whole playoff math thing I did last year, I've got it all on paper. I'll post in before Sunday. It's really wacky, and if it turns out to be correct, I will officially be the greatest genius of all time.

Go Skynards!

Week 12 in Review

2008-11-24T13:57:00.000-08:00

What a bullshit weekend of NFL games. As a football fan, I'm insulted by Sunday's results. Taking out the Washington/Seattle and Indianapolis/San Diego games, the average margin of defeat was over 18 points per game. Winning teams in those games averaged an absurd 35 points. In short, it was a full slate of one-sided massacres. Maybe other NFL fans feel differently, but I hate that kind of thing. I like a game that features two teams playing well. I can handle a good team throttling a bad team, but that should be a rarity. I could totally throw back this kind of football Sunday, when most games are over by halftime, and the only people with a reason to continue watching are fantasy football nerds.

And with that rousing introduction, let's dive into the recap.

Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, 27-10
My Pick: Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, 31-13
This was nothing but a cold-blooded sniper shot. The Bengals are wounded, struggling to get their feet under them, lurching and bleeding and generally on death's door. The Steelers just calmly lined 'em up in their sights, steadied their aim, and popped a death shot in Cincinnati's neck. The Steelers are good for this kind of thing: they got Cincinnati's best Thursday night, which isn't saying much: the Bengals committed two penalties and only turned the ball over once. But Pittsburgh held them to 208 total yards and only 25 minutes of possession.

And really, the most interesting part of this game was the weather. Was that cool or what? A nice steady snowfall and some pretty hectic swirling winds to whip it up and shoot it horizontally. That I liked.

And one more thing: Ben Roethlisberger isn't my favorite quarterback in the NFL, but he's up there. For all the shit he takes for holding the ball too long and not knowing when to check down or throw the ball away, the guy's just a friggin' never-say-die gamer out there. I love watching him take a deep drop, give a big pump fake, juke and dance his way back into the pocket, and somehow always find a way to sling the ball through traffic to a guy on the move with velocity and accuracy. At worst, he's a more likable, less erratic, younger version of Brett Favre. At best, he's a rumblin', stumblin', playaction assassin. His numbers weren't fantastic against the Bengals, but he found a nice little groove there spotting guys on deep middle routes and selling all the little play-fakes and screens the Steelers rolled out. He's fun to watch when he's on.

Baltimore over Philadelphia, 36-7
My Pick: Baltimore over Philadelphia, 20-17
Ouch. You've got to give it to the Eagles: they sure as hell weren't going to let NFL fans spend the rest of the year trying to figure them out. They came out on Sunday and put all doubts to rest: they're garbage. Throw them immediately on the scrap heap of teams in total disarray.

They had no business being on the field with Baltimore on Sunday. No business! Other than a fine kick return by Quincy Demps, not one single part of Philadelphia's team was even remotely respect-worthy. The play-calling was atrocious. Donovan McNabb shrugged and yawned his way through a half of flat-out abysmal football before Andy Reid finally placated Philly's awful fans by completely selling Kevin Kolb up the river. Seriously, maybe next time, Reid could be a little less subtle when Philly's fans start bitching and just tie Kevin Kolb to the railroad tracks. How cruel and how juvenile to send Kolb out there to have his genitals mutilated against Baltimore's defense for a half of football, only to re-assert McNabb's place on the depth chart immediately after the game. "Hey, you asked for it, guys. You think he's so great? Here's his ass on a platter! How do you like him now?"

Philly's offensive line was just a joke. Brian Westbrook, who I generally like but plays with about as much passion as the Terminator, checked out on this season weeks ago and clearly couldn't be roused to give a serious effort against such adversity. And Philly's defense, once it became clear the offense wasn't going to give them any help, spent the second half going through the motions (at best).

And here we are at the end of week 12 of the NFL season, and the Eagles have gone from a team I generally like, fear, defend, and enjoy watching to being perhaps the second or third most depressing team in the league. How can anybody like or root for these guys?

As for the Ravens, it's hard to point out exactly what they did especially well on offense, but when your defense dominates an opponent the way their's did on Sunday, sometimes all you have to do is not cram your head up your own ass and you'll put a few scores on the board. To their credit, they took advantage of opportunities and didn't turn the ball over. It was enough. The Ravens are in great shape. And one more thing: Ed Reed is the last guy in the entire NFL you want to intercept your quarterback's pass. The guy just beat his own record for longest interception return for a touchdown. There are certain defensive backs in the NFL, when they get their hands on the ball, they just have an innate ability to go a long way with it. Ed Reed is the President and CEO of their little club.

New York Jets over Tennessee, 34-13
My Pick: Tennessee over New York Jets, 17-16
Talk about a rude awakening: one day you're undefeated and sitting pretty well at the top of the NFL, and by sundown the following evening you've been de-pantsed and man-raped at home in front of 65,000 shell-shocked fans, beaten just about as brutally as possible and now actually polling at third best in the AFC on NFL.com. Ouch. On the one hand, hey, you're still having a great season. On the other hand, damn, that's one seriously discouraging loss.

Kerry Collins seems like a pretty good guy, and he's been more or less steady for the Titans, but I think we can put all that trumped up MVP talk to bed forever. Wasn't that silly? Nothing like a Sunday afternoon stinkbomb to make everyone glance back at your season stats and realize, hey, actually, you've been playing like pretty mediocre crap all season in front of the AFC's best offensive line by far. The Jets did a job on Tennessee's ground game, and you knew they would, but goddamn, Kerry Collins was flat-out nauseatingly bad through three quarters of this one. Don't be fooled by his relatively defensible final stats, either: Collins completed 9 of his final 10 passes after this game was well, well out of reach, after he'd fumbled the ball to end the last chance Tennessee had of staying in the game or keeping it respectable. Before the last two garbage drives, when Chris Simms or Vince Young probably should have been on the field, Collins was 12 of 29 for about 150 yards. You don't just lose when you play like that, you don't just get benched, you actually go to jail.

The Jets, on the other hand, made a strong, hard-to-argue-with claim to being the AFC's best team and perhaps even the NFL's second best. They manhandled the Titans in Tennessee. Brett Favre was sharp and efficient, totally out of character for him. Their defense totally dominated Tennessee. And New York took advantage of just about every single opportunity. It was a massacre. I still don't give a damn about the Jets, I still think they're baloney, but I wouldn't exactly go shouting about it in a Jets bar. Am I ready to take them seriously? Not really. But they played a terrific game, there was no bullshit in this victory.

Tampa Bay over Detroit, 38-20
My Pick: Tampa Bay over Detroit, 21-7
Wow, it turns out I barely have anything to say at all about this game. I really don't like the Tampa Bay Bucs. For one, I hate watching them on offense. Second of all, I think Jon Gruden is incredibly overrated. And the third reason is the Redskins keep running into these guys in the playoffs, and I'm really irritated that the Bucs are a potential barrier to the Redskins getting to the post-season this year. I'll give them credit for taking care of business and being atop the NFC South, but I'm sick of them, they're not a legit Super Bowl contender, and I don't want any pretenders keeping the Redskins out of the playoffs. If there's going to be a pretender in the NFC playoffs, dammit, it's going to be the Redskins.

As for Detroit, no team is more up in the air than the Lions. What do they do well? At least with the Raiders, you know nobody's throwing at Nnamdi Asomugha and they have a deep backfield. The Lions are so frustrating because they don't seem interested at all in establishing anything even semi-permanent. Because they signed and then turned the offense over to a retired Daunte Culpepper pretty recently, it's impossible to even predict how they'll play from one week to another, and they can't possibly even know what plays will work or how much they should emphasize the ground game, something they don't seem capable of doing or willing to do. I honestly feel like they might go 0-16, only because they're playing nothing like a team that is desperate to avoid that distinction, nor are they playing or coaching at all like they understand the importance of just getting a single win. They seem to be treating these games like preseason exhibitions, and it's both depressing and infuriating.

Minnesota over Jacksonville, 30-12
My Pick: Jacksonville over Minnesota, 21-19
I no longer have any doubt that Jack Del Rio is one of the five worst coaches in the NFL. Jacksonville's inconsistent bullshit is just one of his failings. No coach in the NFL is more cowardly, week to week, than Del Rio. The Jaguars called 9 running plays in the entire game. Time and time again, when faced with a tough run defense, the Jaguars make the decision to shelve their running game altogether and sling the ball around. In my preview of this game, I made a point of questioning which of the two coaches would make the utterly indefensible decision to completely abandon the run; it was the Jaguars, they played like shit, and they deserved the 18 point loss.

I will be disgusted to the point of actually vomiting if Jack Del Rio opens up 2009 as Jacksonville's head coach. The Jaguars are, hands down, among the two or three healthiest teams in the NFL, and have been all season. The only possibly excuse for the pathetically poor play of this team and their utter cowardice in the face of a strong defense is the lousy, clueless coaching they're getting from this putz. Jacksonville is a talented team, and just about any person who even just sometimes watches football can look at this team and tell you what they're built to do. I don't even need to type it here. When healthy, as they are, this team should be able to win more games than they lose, and they should be competitive in pretty much any game. Now, every team gets their balls handed to them from time to time. Even the Giants laid an egg in Cleveland. First of all, though, a team should not get their doors blown off in a must-win home game, and second of all, if you're going to get your doors blown off in a must-win home game and watch your dwindling playoff hopes sink like a stone, it shouldn't be to this Minnesota Vikings team, not with Brad Childress at the helm, not unless Adrian Peterson goes completely berzerk. Peterson didn't even play the first half against Jacksonville. Nope, it was the direct result of Jack Del Rio's poor coaching, his team's abysmal special teams play, his bone-headed cowardly move to abandon the run and feature the pass, that gave Minnesota cheap points and favorable field position for the whole part of this game that was competitive.

Now, as for Minnesota, it's important they not get too excited by this win, if for no other reason than because they're almost certain to come out flat, give up a pair of special teams scores, and get completely dismantled in week 13. In fact, I haven't even looked at their schedule yet. Here goes . . . yep, hosting Chicago on Sunday night. Rest assured, I will be picking the Bears in that game, and unless the spread is 15 points, I'm picking them to cover. I friggin' can't stand either of these two teams, and I'm thankful this festival of terrible coaching is now behind us and these two teams won't meet again for a few seasons.

Buffalo over Kansas City, 54-31
My Pick: Buffalo over Kansas City, 23-20
Buffalo played the big, bad bully in this one, taking out all their frustrations on an ass-backwards circus act from Kansas City. If I hated Kansas City even a little less, I might resent the Bills for it. As it stands, I just give a sad, disgusted little chuckle and shake my head. What a fucking disgrace.

Trent Edwards shook the cobwebs out, screwed his helmet on straight, and gave a ballerific performance on Sunday. Honestly, that's all I have to say for the Bills.

As for Kansas City, look: they've been getting a lot of credit lately for the play of Tyler Thigpen and the spread offense. I don't want to take anything away from the guy, but for crying out loud, maybe we want to take a look at the team's record and remind ourselves they're 1-10. This guy could have a decent career ahead of him, but let's not let that distract us from the fact that his team is undoubtedly one of the absolute worst pieces of dysfunctional dog crap in the NFL. And this is exactly my problem with Herm Edwards and his effect on franchises that hire him: he shoos out all the talent in a fairly broad stroke, pretty rapidly knocks the team down to the bottom rung of the league, and then we all start giving his teams credit for not getting blown out one week and competing despite a lack of playmakers. The same exact shit happened in New York. Kansas City, under Herm Edwards, is an embarrassing, shockingly bad slap-stick recreation of NFL football, week in and week out. Their defense is totally overmatched against even mediocre offenses. Their offense is at its best when it avoids turning the ball over a half dozen times and manages to convert 30% of their third down chances. The Chiefs are a terrible team with virtually no expectation that they can compete with the better teams in the league or have anything to play for other than some sort of ambiguous improvement from . . . what, week to week? Month to month? Embarrassing lopsided ass-kicking to embarrassing lopsided ass-kicking? And yet, somehow, he'll skate by for a few seasons on the expectation that his determined efforts to take 8 years off the average age of his players will someday yield even a cohesive, competitive team. What other coach in the NFL is allowed to hang around on the expectation that someday, the youth of his team will jell and he might just have a cohesive, competitive team. There's something about this guy, he's the master at obliterating accountability over his head and driving standards and expectations not just to the ground, but through the earth and out a manhole in a residential street in China. The day the Redskins hire Herm Edwards for anything but target practice is the day I swear off the NFL forever.

Chicago over St. Louis, 27-3
My Pick: Chicago over St. Louis, 20-14
How can you be sure you're a pathetic, hopeless, once-in-a-lifetime trainwreck of an organization with no competitive drive and not a chance in hell of making anything respectable out of your season? When you put up 3 points, commit 11 penalties, turn the ball over 4 times, gain only 207 yards of total offense, play 3 quarterbacks, 3 runningbacks, gain only 14 rushing yards, get outscored 99-10 in the first half of your last 3 games, and wear a St. Louis Rams uniform. When Jim Haslett is hugging the toilet every few hours, projectile vomiting the contents of his stomach so hard it splashes back in his face and all over his shirt, then dry heaving for another 5 minutes for good measure, do you think when he flushes he sees his career swirling around in there amid the chunks? Once upon a time, perhaps as recently as 5 weeks ago, Haslett was an actual, honest-to-goodness candidate for a head coaching position in the NFL. At this rate, I wouldn't hire him to replace a lightbulb. That's so sad, it goes from sad to funny to horribly depressing and then all the way to me feeling guilty as shit for even having written it, like I spit on his grave or something. A grave he'll be inhabiting soon, after he barfs up his still-beating heart.

I predicted the Bears would ride Matt Forte to victory, and though they did, I wasn't exactly correct. I mean, I was correct, but seriously, the Bears could have ridden Joe Forte to victory. They could have handed the ball 20 times to Matt Damon and they still would have won. Still, if you're a Bears fan, you can be pretty excited about what you saw on Sunday. Forte's a horse, and your Bears are getting healthy. The defense played their most complete game of the season, and the pass-rush was really strong. The Bears are still in the fight in the NFC North, and hey, I'm pretty psyched about that. From now on, I'm rooting for the Bears to win the North. To hell with the other teams in that crappy division. There isn't a one of them that isn't playing well below their potential. Among NFC North teams, the Chicago is the only one that ever seems to step up and play over their heads, and I respect them for it. Go Bears!

New England over Miami, 48-28
My Pick: Miami over New England, 27-17
Down the stretch, New England got into one of those 2007 grooves where you knew as soon as the other team blinked it would all be over. To their credit, Miami didn't really blink until the fourth quarter, but it was enough for the Patriots to open it up and wind up with a 20-point margin in a game that wasn't actually all that one sided, at least not compared to the rest of Sunday's games.

It's possible I completely forgot Randy Moss was even a part of New England's offense for a while there, but he put together a classic performance in Miami. Before I go further down the road of heaping praise on the Patriots, let me first say I really don't like their offense, I really don't like their offensive players, I'm really not sold on them, and even if they win out, even if they win the AFC, even if they win the Super Bowl, I'll probably just end up being depressed about the stupidity and inflexibility of NFL defenses, rather than impressed by or sold on New England's offense. And if there's anybody out there who still thinks Tom Brady is as good as his 2007 numbers, well obviously you haven't watched the 2008 Patriots in a few weeks. Not only is Matt Cassel just as good at running the passing part of the Patriots offense right now, he's actually better at the little things like buying time with his feet and scrambling for a first down. Now I'm going to say something really absurd: if the guy under center in last season's Super Bowl had been able to escape and move like Matt Cassel, the Patriots would have finished their undefeated season. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Giselle Bundchen.

Honestly, it turns out I still can't stand the Patriots under Bill Belichick, and I really don't give a damn at all about the Miami Dolphins. Hey, they're having a nice season, hurray! I happen to think all the teams in the AFC East are weak-schedule-inflated, overrated pretenders. I don't like thinking about 'em, I don't like writing about 'em, I don't like watching 'em, I don't like predicting or recapping their games. So there.

Dallas over San Francisco, 35-22
My Pick: Dallas over San Francisco, 29-16
It turns out I nailed the margin of defeat and underestimeted each team's offense by 6 points. Huzzah!

San Francisco was competitive for about 13 minutes of this game. For the opening 13 minutes, they controlled the line of scrimmage, Tony Romo was way off, and there was hope for Niners fans. Then the wheels came all the way off, starting with Nate "Roadkill" Clements, who'll be serving breakfast and cocktails in a penguin suit at Terrell Owens' mansion for the next 25 years.

Seriously, honestly, that's the whole story of this game. Neither defense dominated, neither running game was especially strong, neither quarterback was really all that effective. The whole tale of the tape Sunday afternoon in Dallas was Terrell Owens repeatedly humiliating Nate Clements on deep routes. Seriously, go check the stats. That was the difference. Take away T.O.'s production, and Romo was 17 of 32 for 138 yards.

And if you're Mike Singletary, a 13-point loss to the Cowboys in Dallas doesn't hurt the ol' resume nearly as much as the strategy in the secondary versus Dallas' wide receivers. What the hell were they thinking? Every team in the NFL, since week 4 of this season, has known to put someone with long arms at the line opposite T.O., get in his face, disrupt him, jam him, screw up his timing with Romo, and he'll go away. See, there's this little thing called "video" that we have in the modern part of the world, and teams have been using these "videos" to watch what other teams did successfully against the Cowboys. Not the 49ers, apparently, who thought it would be a good idea to station Clements a good 10 yards off the line of scrimmage on virtually every passing down of the whole game. What an unbelievable, incomprehensibly stupid strategy by the 49ers, and it reflects very poorly on Singletary, who is supposed to know a thing or two about defense. What the hell were they thinking? What did they see in their tape sessions leading up to this game, what were those conversations like?

And now, with the benefit of hindsight, now that it's obvious the whole difference in the game was the way T.O. got completely loose against San Francisco's horribly out of position secondary, doesn't that utter failure of the coaching staff make a strong impression when considering anybody associated with San Francisco's defense for a coaching position?

As for the Cowboys, hey, in Cowboyland, when your team puts up 35 points and your loud-mouthed receiver puts up over 200 yards the same week in which he went on national television and complained to Deion Sanders about the rigidity of the offense, hey, you're back on top of the world. Nevermind that your defense gave up over 300 yards passing to Shaun Hill and the 49ers, or that your tailback averaged just about 2.5 yards per carry on 19 rushes, or that, with the exception of one 22-point explosion in the second, you were outscored and outgained in every other quarter. On the other hand, a win is a win. The Cowboys have an opportunity to get back on track, staying at home next week to face the awful Seahawks before a week 14 showdown in Pittsburgh.

Houston over Cleveland, 16-6
My Pick: Houston over Cleveland, 31-27
Just a dismal, dismal afternoon in Cleveland. 5 turnovers, 5 penalties, 22 minutes of possession, 6 total points, 2 horrific quarterback performances, and a Browns team that has pretty clearly quit on this season, no matter what Romeo Crennel or anyone else in the Browns organization might say to the contrary. Losing to Houston is okay, I suppose. Losing to them at home, that's a shame, as they're pretty clearly a bad road team. Losing to the Texans at home with Sage Rosenfels under center, that's just embarrassing. But losing to the Texans at home with Sage Rosenfels under center when you hold their offense to only 16 points? Houston's defense ain't shit, y'all. If Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson can't do better than 13 of 32 and 3 picks against this defense, they ought to forfeit their paychecks.

Two quick shout-outs and I'm done: Kevin Walter is one of the more underrated receivers in the NFL. Who knows how he might do opposite a receiver less dangerous than Andre Johnson, but to his credit, he's taking advantage of the opportunities. The other shout-out is for to Houston's defense, which played a pretty great game on Sunday. That's it! It was an irrelevent game, so I can't give it too many words or I'll burn out before I get to the meaningful stuff.

Oakland over Denver, 31-10
My Pick: Denver over Oakland, 42-20
Go into a sports-bar anywhere in America and say something offhand as silly as "I hate the AFC West", and no one is likely to even raise an eyebrow. Even in Denver. But go into a sports-bar anywhere in America with "I hate the AFC West" tatooed on your forehead, your eyebrows shaved off, a shirt with the four AFC West logos covered with a big, red X over them, and fire a dozen rounds from an AK-47 into the first person who claps when any of the four AFC West teams makes a positive play on the television, well, you're likely to get locked up for that. We may not be there yet, folks, but we're close. At halftime of this one, I was grinding my teeth to dust. I used to hate the AFC West. Now I really hate the AFC West.

I hate the AFC West because I'm having to re-evaluate some pretty basic, fundamental understandings I've had of myself. It turns out, for instance, that I'm someone who needs order, who needs organization, who needs for things to make sense. You'd never know that by looking at my bedroom, or my kitchen, or the incredibly large pile of laundry growing next to my bed like the blob. Spend some time with me, as I have, and you'd almost certainly come away with the same pretty clear assumption: I don't mind disorder. Well, you'd be wrong. This shit-hole they call the AFC West has shown me, once and for all, how much I require order, organization, progress, sense, a certain structural foundation in the world. Watching, reading about or even thinking about the AFC West makes me twitch and sweat and cringe. It makes my stomach ache. I'm this close to either joining a Yoga class or twisting someone's head off.

The thing about Oakland routing the Broncos in Denver is, there's no possible explanation. Oakland hadn't scored an offensive touchdown in 15 consecutive quarters of football. 15 quarters! Oakland's offense is so bad, we're at the point where comments about Al Davis strapping on a helmet and stepping in under center aren't funny anymore, they're the result of actual brainstorming. They're food for thought. And it's not like Oakland's defense is much better. Nnamdi Asomugha is like a bobber tied to a 15-foot line attached to a rotting corpse.

And let's talk about this game, for crying out loud. Oakland went into Denver and committed 10 penalties. They threw the ball 12 times. They never sacked Jay Cutler. They were outgained by the Broncos. How in the hell do you lose to the Oakland Raiders like this? Well, first of all, Jay Culter was atrocious. His two best completions of the night, by far, were two early screen passes. The thing about these "gunslinger" quarterbacks is when they're out of rhythm, it can be really horrible. Cutler was out of rhythm because his receivers were having trouble creating space, and he was just all over the place. Cutler's a daring young quarterback with a cannon-arm, but among other young gunslingers, like Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger, Cutler makes the most consistently puzzling decisions when he's under pressure. He was flat-out garbage on Sunday. He didn't lose the game for the Broncos, but he sure as hell helped. Second of all, Johnny Lee Higgins is just about the best thing the Raiders have going offensively. He scored on yet another long return. Third, the Raiders took advantage of field position, whether it was from turnovers, or special teams, or penalties, or just good defense.

Mostly, though, it looked to me like Denver expected this to be a cakewalk, and when they were punched in the mouth early, they folded like lawn furniture. It disgusts me that a team from the AFC West will "win" that "division" and go to the playoffs. The NFL should pick the out-of-division team with the best record against the AFC West and give them dominion over the division. If that team is already in the playoffs, they should go to the next team, and so on until they find someone from elsewhere in the NFL to fill that final playoff spot.

Atlanta over Carolina, 45-28
My Pick: Atlanta over Carolina, 23-20
This Falcons team really makes me believe that anyone drawing a paycheck to play in the NFL is good enough to be a solid part of a good team in the NFL. It seems like Mike Smith has managed to squeeze every drop of potential out of these guys, and whatever magic he's working over there, I'd love to see how it's done. Another thing that really impresses me about this Falcons team is the way it seems like they're never either too up for a big game or too flat against a sorry opponent. I don't know, there are lots of candidates for Coach of the Year this season, but after Atlanta's week 12 demolition of division-leading Carolina, I think it'd take something enormous for anybody to overtake Smith. It's just incredible what he's done with this franchise.

Another rookie stepped up big in this one, seldom used rookie receiver Harry Douglas, who had a big run, a big return, and a couple of big catches. He also had a silly penalty, but we'll forgive him.

And folks, folks, Michael Turner, folks. What a baller. 117 yards and 4 touchdowns, including a clutch 3 yard run on a ballsy 4th and goal call in the fourth quarter that extended Atlanta's lead to 10. Matt Ryan is playing very well, and that's great, but the one potential downside of his strong play is that it's deflecting attention away from what would otherwise be considered a very strong MVP case Turner is making for himself. His numbers are outstanding, but most importantly, on a young team coming off a disastrous 2007 season, with a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach, he gives their offense a foundation, a big fat pillar to build around. No matter what they get from Matt Ryan week to week, they know they can hand the ball to Turner 25 times and he'll give 'em something. Psychologically, that's got to play a huge role in this team's success.

As for Carolina, this wasn't too terrible a loss. They dropped into second place in the NFC South just when they were getting thrown into talk of playing for homefield throughout, but they're still in great shape for the playoffs. They played pretty well, too, at least on the offensive side of the ball. The Panthers outgained Atlanta, had fewer turnovers, and held onto the ball longer. Ultimately, the Falcons just made some great plays in the second half and kept Carolina in catch-up mode.

I should really hate the Falcons and Panthers, because right now they could stand in the way of Washington making the playoffs. The truth is, I think of Carolina as the best team in the South, and I can't possibly root against the Falcons. So all the animosity I ought to have for these teams is rolled up and slammed on the back of the Tampa Bay Bucs, a team I have no problem hating at all.

New York Giants over Arizona, 37-29
My Pick: New York Giants over Arizona, 34-24
The thing that separates great teams like New York from the pack is how they take care of the little things no matter who they're playing against and no matter who they have on the field. New York got 201 special teams yards from Domenik Hoxon and cashed in on all five opportunities they had to start drives in Arizona territory. That kind of thing puts enormous pressure on an opponent, especially one dealing with the psychological pressure of playing the 10-1 Super Bowl Champs. Arizona outgained the Giants and had fewer penalties; generally speaking, when a great home team outgains a road team and said road team commits 9 penalties and only rushes for 87 yards, you expect the home team to win, probably going away. But New York just has a knack for making those plays here and there that give them the edge and put the pressure on their opponent. In this game, Domenik Hixon supplied a lot of that edge.

It helps, also, when you hold the home team to 23 rushing yards and win the turnover battle 2-0. I like Tim Hightower, I'm okay with switching to him from Edgerrin James, but are we really sure this guy is an upgrade? You're telling me James couldn't have pounded out more than 21 yards on the ground? I'm not so sure. Sometimes you want a battle-tested veteran out there, and this could have been one of those times for Arizona. New York's defense is great and getting even better, but if you're a Cardinals fan, you can't be happy about the way this team continues to struggle to run the ball with even a little consistency. The Cardinals have been one of the NFL's worst, least explosive rushing teams in the NFL for a few years now. You hear this all the time, and almost never from me, but here it is: as the weather turns colder headed into the playoffs, teams that can't run the ball will be in trouble. Just ask the 2007 New England Patriots.

On the other side, if you're a Giants fan, hey, you've gotta love what you saw from Eli Manning. That was one sharp outing right there. 26 of 33 with 3 scores and no turnovers - great production on the road in a really tough place to play. And the win and especially the offensive production are all the more impressive considering who wasn't on the field; both Brandon Jacobs and Plaxico Burress missed the game. Winning without Jacobs, especially in this fashion, is pretty damn impressive. As for Burress, well, there's one receiver in football who's done more to diminish his value headed into this off-season, and it's that moron Chad Johnson. Burress has only had really two "incidents" in 2008, but how much clearer could it be that the Giants don't need him or his production to have a successful offense? From what I can tell, Eli Manning is not the sort of quarterback who can handle having to force-feed certain guys. He was crap, then they took away Jeremy Shockey, and he made significant strides. Now, this season, when Burress isn't out there, he's even better. There are quarterbacks in the NFL that can handle an outsized ego at receiver, but I think it's fair to say Eli isn't one of them. And you know what? He shouldn't have to. The guy won a Super Bowl and has led his team to a 10-1 record the following season.

I'm legitimately afraid of the Giants coming to Washington in week 13. I don't mind the Redskins losing. I've come full circle and returned to that happy place where I started the 2008 NFL season; I don't mind if they lose, I just want them to compete and be respectable. My concern, though, is that the Giants might deliver a brutal thumping on Sunday, and that would be a real shame.

Washington over Seattle, 20-17
My Pick: Washington over Seattle, 21-16
See how close I was? Pretty impressive, right?

And it turned out what I said at the end of my pick for this game was totally true; I was fully okay with the way this game played out. The Redskins won. They didn't look dominant, I don't care. They looked just like a team with a new offense and a rookie head coach would dream of looking. That's just great.

And what's more, they looked pretty close to hitting on a couple of things that could have really opened up the score a bit. Truth be told, the game was no where near as close as the final score. Matt Hasselbeck was friggin' terrible, just like I predicted. His two picks were just ridiculous. I'm not saying Matt Hasselbeck is a garbage quarterback . . . well, wait, actually, I am saying that. Matt Hasselbeck is totally, totally overrated. He's got a noodle arm, he doesn't handle pressure well at all, he whines and sulks when he isn't in love with his receivers, and his lack of confidence in his receiving corps has a dramatic effect on his play. If Hasselbeck were in New York and Plaxico Burress went down, he'd spend a week making subtle complaints to the media and then lay an epic stink-egg on Sunday. Hasselbeck didn't lose the game for Seattle, though. The whole offense was terrible. Seattle hit on a big run play, but other than that, it's not like they pounded the living shit out of Washington's defense. They ran the ball decently at best. Take out the 44 yard scamper in the first quarter, and you're talking about 85 total rushing yards. Seattle held the ball for only 21 minutes, for crying out loud.

Of course, I wasn't happy to see Jason Campbell take a few big hits early in the game, but once he settled down and was able to process things in the pocket for more than a half-second, he found a nice groove and played a fine game. Clinton Portis was a monster, again. Mike Sellers was over-the-top outstanding in every facet of the game. The defense could have been better, but they played pretty damn well, especially considering London Fletcher and Cornelius Griffin were both well below full strength. All in all, it was a solid win. I'll take it.

It's funny how both of these teams probably have good reason to piss themselves headed into week 13. Seattle has to go to Dallas for what is sure to be a comical blow-out, and Washington gets to host the Giants, who look pretty much untouchable right now. I'm not ready to deny either team a shot in hell of pulling off an upset, but it doesn't look good.

Indianapolis over San Diego, 23-20
My Pick: San Diego over Indianapolis, 24-23
I didn't watch this game, and I'm not surprised Indy won, and I can't imagine anybody out there really is either. I suppose people will continue to excuse away San Diego's season instead of focusing on the fact that they dropped yet another must-win game at home. This time they'll get the pass because it was a last minute field goal that did 'em in. "Man, this team has no luck at all!" Let's see if Norv Turner can come up with a call or two to use to blame the officials.

I don't really have much at all to say about the Sunday-nighter, but I'll go ahead and say this: Tony Dungy showed some real guts in going for it on fourth down twice, once in scoring position and a second time near midfield at the end of the game. That second one was just incredibly gutsy. If the Colts failed there, the Chargers get the ball at mid-field with enough time left to possibly hit an outside route and kick a long field goal. And you can't possibly say enough for Peyton Manning, who completed his fifth game winning drive of the season. With his team in shambles around him and he himself still hobbled from off-season surgeries, this guy has pretty much single-handedly kept his team hanging around in the wild-card picture. Now that they're getting a little bit healthy, at least on offense, they're still in position to make a run. It's an impressive story.

New Orleans over Green Bay, 51-29
My Pick: Green Bay over New Orleans, 34-23
That's it, I'm done with the Packers. Screw 'em. And I'm done with the Saints. It just about ruined my day when I heard someone say the Saints are "still alive" this morning on the radio. These two teams are so friggin' false, I can't stand it.

So congratulations, Drew Brees, on your pursuit of Dan Marino's single season passing yardage record. Your team is totally phony, you're not even serious enough to be called a pretender, and the Saints are pretty easily one of the two most frustrating teams in the NFL.

And as for the Packers, holy fucking shit. 51 points? Sixth ranked passing defense, my ass. I guess it helps when you play the Bears, Vikings, and Lions twice each. Gimme a break. And Ryan Grant is the biggest piece of crap runningback ever. Aaron Rodgers leads the Green Bay Packers in rushing touchdowns with four. Four.

What a disgrace.

No extras today. I might have time later in the week to put something together. I know I said the same thing last week and then flaked out, but it's a short week and I've got shit to do.

Peace!

Week 12 Picks

2008-11-20T13:44:00.000-08:00

Here we go!

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh by 11
I don't see how Cincinnati could possibly lose this game (whoa, I almost posted this entry that way! Can you imagine? "I don't see how Cincinnati could possibly lose this game?" Are you kidding me? I think we both know I meant the other thing). Pittsburgh, under Mike Tomlin, has sometimes had trouble getting up for non-conference road games. They've had no problem whatsoever getting pumped for division road contests, and I expect this one to be a bloodbath because of it. Let's face it, here: if Pittsburgh wants to destroy the Bengals, they will. The Bengals will be powerless to stop them.

The only question, I suppose, is what kind of game it'll be. I find it extremely interesting that this game is getting by far the fewest total points from Vegas, something like 34.5. Is that because the Steelers are going to hang something hideous like a 31-3 on the Bengals? Let's see: 34.5 total points, 11 point margin, that would make it 22-11 or 23-12. I don't know, I see the Steelers putting a lot more than 23 points on the board. I'm looking for a blowout.
Steelers over Bengals, 31-13

Philadelphia @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 1
And really, who knows? This far into the season, it's still pretty hard to diagnose what kind of offensive performance you're going to get from the Ravens. To their credit, there's at least now the possibility of the Ravens putting a big number on the board, even against a decent defense.

And as for the Eagles, you can't really predict what kind of performance you'll get at all from them, especially on the offensive side of the ball. There's an increasingly likely chance that, in any given week, the Eagles are going to yawn their way through a game. I still don't really expect them to pull that act against as fearsome a defense as the Ravens, but on the other hand, would you necessarily even notice against this team? I mean, the Eagles could very well come out frothing at the mouth on offense and still not do a damn thing in this game. Let's face it: Philadelphia's offense isn't very special this season. They have no backfield depth, their receiving corps still isnt' worth a damn, and their quarterback has taken the concept of starting slow to previously unexplored depths. I'm not impressed at all by Philly's offense. In fact, I'm bumping every single one of their offensive players down a few notches (even Brian Westbrook) until they actually earn the label of "dangerous". For now, they're a bunch of strutting peacocks.

And because the Ravens could conceivably win this game even if Philly's offense shows up, I'm giving them the nod. I can't pick a team based on the possibility that they'll actually have a pulse on Sunday, especially not on the road. So there.
Ravens over Eagles, 20-17

New York Jets @ Tennessee
The Line: Tennessee by 5.5
Make no mistake about it, the Jets could win this game. And it pisses me off.

See, I gave the Packers a chance over the Titans in week 9 in Tennessee. They came close. I gave the Bears a chance in Chicago, to no avail. I picked the goddamn Jaguars over the Titans in Jacksonville in week 11. After they failed, I swore not to pick against the Titans again this season. Now we've got the goddamn contemptible Jets, riding a big win streak, headed into Tennessee with a stout run defense and a fluky big play tendency on offense, and I have that motherfucking feeling. I'm sick about it.

And here's the thing: if the Jets win this game, there will be no end to the gay orgasm the national sports media has over Brett Favre's "legend". And then I won't just be sick about it, I'll be literally sick about it.

I've got to believe the Titans will find a way. For a 10-0 team, this is what passes for a big game: hosting another division leader in week 12 with an opportunity to stomp their way that much closer to homefield throughout the AFC playoffs. And legitimacy is on the line, too! And pride, right?

C'mon, Titans. You won when I didn't pick you, I've come around, don't let me down.
Titans over Jets, 17-16

Tampa Bay @ Detroit
The Line: Tampa Bay by 8.5
Funny how I still haven't gotten to the point where I want to say the Lions will win a game this season. I don't know, man, I don't put it past them to go winless in 2008. They stink. Nothing is on the line. They've got nothing to lose, and at this point, they really have nothing to win, either. If you work for the Lions, the one reason to not toss yourself off a tall building might be the current state of the Oakland Raiders. If not for the Raiders, who have sunk to such incredible depths of dysfunction as an organization, this decade of Lions football would almost certainly be remembered as the worst of any team in NFL history. And it's still worse than Oakland's decade, but Oakland is in such once-in-a-lifetime bad shape, they almost make the Lions seem like a credible NFL franchise by comparison.

Detroit will need some big, big plays to shock the world and upset Tampa Bay. There's always the possibility that Tampa comes out flat and sleepwalks through a portion of this game, and if Detroit strikes early and often before Tampa recovers, they could conceivably make it a contest. I seriously doubt that will happen, but I have no faith in the Bucs or their crappy offense, so I guess I wouldn't be totally shocked to see the Lions pull the upset. You're crazy if you think I'm picking it that way.
Bucs over Lions, 21-7

Minnesota @ Jacksonville
The Line: Jacksonville by 2
Seriously, who knows.

Flip a coin. Which team is going to play like autistic paraplegics? Which team is going to suddenly and inexplicably abandon the run and go bomb-crazy? Which team will find a way to shoot itself not just in the foot, but in the knees and the groin?

These are two incompetent, poorly coached teams, make no mistake about it. Neither team has excuse one for being as mediocre as they are. Both teams have been as healthy as anybody, both teams have mostly the same cast of characters as last season (or better), both teams have relatively stable coaching staffs. Why do they suck? Why are they stuck in the middle of the NFL, puzzling their fans and frustrating the shit out of pick-making bloggers everywhere? Because they have terrible head-coaches who refuse to allow their offenses to establish an identity and constantly undermine their players.

How do you pick a game like this? It's like watching Dopey fight Dopey for the middleweight championship of the world: someone's going to win, only once it's over we won't know how they won, only how the other guys lost, and we won't know what it means for their next opponent. I get depressed even thinking about it.

So I'm giving a few points to the home team.
Jaguars over Vikings, 21-19

Buffalo @ Kansas City
The Line: Buffalo by 3
Friggin' Bills. Has any team gone from conference contender to all-but-officially eliminated from post-season contention in such short order? And is there any chance in hell the Bills swing this thing the other way? I say hell no.

The Bills need this win, they need it very badly. No matter how their season has swung, they're still so much better than the Chiefs. At every possible position, the Bills are superior. There's not an individual match-up the Bills shouldn't dominate. Ultimately, do the Bills still give themselves a chance? Are they still fighting for something? Because it'd be a very strong, very bad indictment of Dick Jauron if the Bills come out flat and manage to lose this game. So far, you could say the Bills have only lost to teams in their same tier; even the Browns have a lot of good players. A loss to the Chiefs is a horse of a different color.

So in a sense, this game is like a life raft and a microphone for the 2008 Buffalo Bills. Take care of business, and you're back above water, still looking at long odds, but continuing the struggle. Lose, and you've said a mouthful.

And as for the Chiefs, look, this is what you play for when you're absolute garbage and your coaching staff and front-office gave up on your season two months before it even started. The Bills are a struggling wannabe contender from a real NFL division: spoil 'em! Ruin their hopes! Schadenfreude, bitches!

There's only one team in this game I'm willing to pick in any game for the rest of the 2008 season. If they lose, there'll be two.
Bills over Chiefs, 23-20

Chicago @ St. Louis
The Line: Chicago by 8.5
Honestly, I don't give the Rams much of a chance, here. St. Louis is just awful. It's possible they're playing as bad today as they were the week Scott Linehan was fired. How does Jim Haslett feel about that "win 6 games and you're in" clause now? Maybe you could have talked 'em down to 4? 4 wins with this pile of shit is nothing to sneeze at!

If I'm Lovie Smith, I'm bundling the offense up and piling it on Matt Forte's back this Sunday. Kyle Orton looked like pissed on dog-shit last Sunday. Maybe he's healthy, maybe he's not. I know this much: quarterbacking had better not torpedo Chicago's season in 2008, or that might be it for Lovie Smith in Chicago. The Bears need to get back on track. They need to get rid of the taste from week 11. They need a win. This should be an easy win. Don't piss it away trying to get your quarterback back into a rhythm. Cram your ground game up the Rams' ass, knock Marc Bulger around, take the win.

And that's just what they'll do.
Bears over Rams, 20-14

New England @ Miami
The Line: Miami by 1
I honestly don't know how to call this game. I really don't. I feel like it's fair to point out, however, that though the Patriots will likely have something up their sleeves to account for the Wildcat, it wasn't the Wildcat that held the Pats offense to 13 points in New England last time these two teams met.

So I don't suppose it really even matters whether or not New England knows what to do with the Wildcat. Suppose they do. They've got bigger, badder fish to fry, because it's also extremely likely that Miami will have a wrinkle or two in their own defense to throw at the Patriots.

I don't think that earlier result was a fluke at all, either. I think the Miami Dolphins are a score or two better than New England, I really do. On the other hand, I have a hard time picking against the Patriots in any rematch, hence my confusion over this pick. I mean, last season these teams were at the extreme opposite ends of the whole "success" spectrum. How does a 1-15 team sweep the season series from a 16-0 team only one year later? Is that possible?

I really am having a hard time with this. Just when I start to settle on the Patriots, I suddenly have a very hard time picturing Matt Cassel getting the job done in Miami. I guess that's my problem: I want to pick the Pats, but I don't know how they'd do it. I think I know how Miami will do it, but I'm obviously not totally sold on them. Shoot.

Well, I guess you have to go with something that makes sense, and 38-13 is pretty damn convincing. Dolphins win! Dolphins win! Dolphins win!
Dolphins over Patriots, 27-17

San Franciso @ Dallas
The Line: Dallas by 10
I just love how gay the whole world is for this Dallas team. The second biggest spread of the week, over a team that just won by 19 points. Denver's favored by 9.5 at home over a team that has scored 1 touchdown in 5 games, and the Cowboys are favored by 10 at home over a team coming off a 35-point explosion. Interesting. Both Denver and Dallas are 6-4. Oakland is one of the worst teams in the history of football. San Francisco is bad, but . . . well, to recycle a joke I used a few weeks ago, they ain't horses. They may be whores, but they ain't horses.

Realistically, though, the Cowboys probably will beat up the Niners pretty good.

I guess you know who I'll be rooting for.
Cowboys over 49ers, 29-16

Houston @ Cleveland
The Line: Cleveland by 3
I'm pretty grossed out by this game. I'd rather not talk or think or type about it.

Well, pull up a chair!

Houston needs a pick-me-up. Their 2008 season got off on the way wrong foot, then they had a nice run, just long enough to peek at the wild-card picture, now it's gone totally off the rails. They've had the kind of run in their short existence that can really sour a group of fans. The Texans need to finish this season strong. They owe it to their fans.

As for the Browns, man, is the circus in town or what? Phil Savage is blasting off F-bombs in emails to fans now? What gives? First of all, why in the hell is he even responding to fan-mail? Second of all, man, put a leash on that puppy! F this and F that, your effing season has gone down the effing tubes, you waited too effing long to put your effing draft pick in, now everyone's effing yelling at you like you weren't the effing smart guy who effing picked him up in the effing first place! And you're effing pee-ed off!

This team is nothing if not one big distraction. If it isn't a quarterback controversy, it's a veteran accusing the team of quitting in the media, then the coach using the media to respond to the claim. Or it's the star tight end calling out the organization for not protecting its players from staph infections. Now the coach is having to explain to the media why the general manager is firing off obscenities in written correspondences with fans. Blimey!

I think both teams are about equally talented. Houston might be just slightly sharper and more professional. Cleveland has the home field advantage. What can that be worth, after you blast your fans with foul language? 3 points? 4 points? How much better is Houston? 2 points?

Browns win!
Browns over Texans, 31-27

Oakland @ Denver
The Line: Denver by 9.5
This game may not be meaningless, but I sure as shit don't give a damn.
Broncos over Raiders, 42-20

Carolina @ Atlanta
The Line: Atlanta by 1
What a huge, huge game!

Atlanta needs this game a lot more than Carolina, and they're lucky to have it at home. As wonderful and surprising as this Falcons team is, their playoff hopes could take a significant blow if they drop this one. It's a tight, tough NFC race, and there's a handful of veteran teams struggling along with this rookie group for a pair of wild-card spots.

I guess Atlanta's hopes ride on their ability to get in Jake Delhomme's face and force him into another nugget outing. Seriously, this guy's been dreadful for a few weeks now. He followed up one epic dog-shit performance with a 98-yard rat-puke outing last Sunday. Another performance like that this Sunday will almost certainly be too much for his team to overcome. The Falcons are not the Lions. If Delhomme stinks, the Panthers will lose.

A week ago, I was seduced by Atlanta's strong home record. I gave 'em the nod over Denver, and they burned me for it. This week, I'm having a much harder time giving them the same respect. Carolina would skewer Denver, chew 'em up, shit 'em out, feed the shit to a homeless man, light him on fire, and toss him out of the International Space Station. The Panthers are a different animal altogether. They're not a great team, but they're ferocious on defense and very balanced on offense, and Atlanta will need their A-game, even at home, to have a chance.

Atlanta is probably good for an A performance 4 out of 5 times at home. They didn't have an A performance against the Broncos. They're due, right? Sure! Because that's how statistics work! One coinflip has a direct probability effect on any subsequent coinflip! It's, like, Karma or something, right?

No, seriously, I do think you'll get an A performance from the Falcons. That'll give them a chance. It's a big game, so I like the chances of them getting a boost from their crowd. And I absolutely hate the way Jake Delhomme has been playing lately. I'm going with Atlanta. I don't feel great about it, but there it is.
Falcons over Panthers, 23-20

New York Giants @ Arizona
The Line: New York Giants by 3
What's this? Another huge game? No, really, this is a MONSTER!

Here's why: both of these teams have all but punched their tickets to the post-season. Right now, two games separate them in the standings. Carolina is going to Atlanta, they could lose. It's entirely possible that Arizona could come out of this home game right on New York's heals in the NFC and holding the all important tie-breaker should they finish with the same record atop the NFC. Consider that: this game, right here, could possibly determine where these two teams meet in the NFC Championship. Arizona will not play a more important game this regular season.

I really, really like Arizona's chances. In season's past, I'd expect any NFC West team to fold like an accordian in this match-up, but Arizona plays like friggin' Zeus at home. Kurt Warner is kind of a double-edged sword for them, too: he could very well kill them by going PTSD in the second quarter, but on the other hand, I expect him to give this team it's swagger headed into the game, and that confidence will be everything against a Giants team that spent the entire important part of last season going into other team's stadiums and rocking their worlds en route to the most clutch, unlikely upset in Super Bowl history. I guess what I'm saying is, the Giants will not be afraid of Arizona's home-field, they will not be discouraged if the Cardinals come out quickly, and there's no chance they play flat, get away from their game-plan, or implode because they're intimidated. There's always a chance the Giants will implode, but it will have nothing to do with Arizona. In all likelihood, the only way the Cardinals win this game is if they play the best game they've played all season.

And as for the Giants, barring the possibility of an unprovoked implosion, I suppose the formula is simple: run the hell out of the ball, keep a close eye on Adrian Wilson, pressure the be-Jesus out of Kurt Warner. It looks so simple, I'm very, very tempted to pick the G-Men.

I might have even talked myself into it.

On the other hand, I'm loathe to pick against the 7-3 Cardinals in Arizona, where they've been flat-out great this season.

The only kind of game the Cardinals probably can't win is a low-scoring trench-battle. New York's offensive and defensive lines are significantly better than Arizona's, that class will show up over the course of a full game. If it goes high-scoring, I could see Arizona winning. But New York could also win a shoot out.

There it is, the whole rationale for picking the Giants. Or, part two, anyway.

New York's formula is simpler, and they could win this game almost no matter what tempo it's played at. Therefore . . .
Giants over Cardinals, 34-24

Washington @ Seattle
The Line: Washington by 3.5
This is really just a continuation of my recap from week 11.

It's clear to me now that the Redskins really need a big-time upgrade at defensive end. It couldn't have been more plain against the Cowboys. Dallas didn't run between the tackles until their 12th running play, and they ran a total of 20 times outside the tackles to only 7 times between them. Simply put, Andre Carter and Jason Taylor cannot both rush the passer and defend the run. That means something even more distressing, namely that Carter and Taylor can neither rush the passer nor defend the run. At least in Carter's case, he's a high-motor player who knows the system. I'm still trying to talk myself into the Jason Taylor trade, and it's been a few months, and it's getting harder every week.

Still, I've gotta like Washington's chances against the Seahawks. The Skins are getting healthier, this is a must-win game, Seattle is bad, and former assistants almost always do better against their former bosses than those bosses do against their former assistants. Of course, I don't have any stats to back that up, but it makes sense, right? How in the hell would Mike Holmgren know Jim Zorn's playcalling style? How would he know what the inherent weaknesses of a Jim Zorn coached team are? But flip it around, Jim Zorn has been at Holmgren's right hand for 9 years, watching him actually call plays and actually coach guys and actually gameplan and scheme to his own ideal. It makes sense, right?

Look, no way I'm not taking the Redskins. There's no part of the Seahawks I'm afraid of. I'm even less afraid of them with Matt Hasselbeck's corpse under center than I was with Seneca Wallace, who has honest to goodness legs and a backbone with no elbows in it.

And you know what? I don't care if they look good! All I care about is enjoying watching my goddamn team on Sunday, and rooting for them to win. They've got a chance, I think they'll win, and if they do, it'll count just the same as whatever shallacking the Cowboys lay on the Niners.
Redskins over Seahawks, 21-16

Indianapolis @ San Diego
The Line: San Diego by 3
Hey, anybody else forget it was San Diego that lost in that shitfest in Pittsburgh last Sunday? God, you'd think the Steelers lost the game with as much attention as that final play is getting. Why isn't anyone talking about the fact that the "deep", "explosive", "dominating" San Diego offense lost a game in which their shit-ass defense held the goddamn Pittsburgh Steelers to only 11 points in Pittsburgh? The friggin' Redskins got effing SKEWERED for only putting up six against the Steelers, and they've got a new offensive system, a rookie head coach, and had an injured tailback, number one receiver, and left tackle on the field. What's San Diego's excuse? Why aren't they getting their shit owned by the national sports media? Oh, right, because San Diego has already been given a pass for 2008.

I really hope Indianapolis wins this game. We'll see.
Chargers over Colts, 24-23

Green Bay @ New Orleans
The Line: New Orleans by 2.5
I'm already sick of one of these teams. I'll be absolutely disgusted by both of them if the Packers don't pull this off. I'm sick of them dancing around the outside of the pack. Get in or get the fuck out already!

If New Orleans wins, I'm not putting any energy into any picks or recaps involving either of these teams again this season, not until one of them has at least a game lead in their division. I'm sick of the middling bullshit. Step up, for crying out loud!
Packers over Saints, 34-23

I might come back and post another NFL related thing this week, since I didn't do any rankings or anything else. We'll see!

Go Skynards!

Week 11 Re-Crap

2008-11-19T06:30:00.001-08:00

I really don't have any juice for this recap.

This is going to be a slim week, blog-wise. I farted away Tuesday because my car needed two new tires and I had a whole ass-load of responsibilities I'd been putting off for a while. The really sad, pathetic part is I was busy and active and didn't have time to do a week 11 recap on Tuesday because I wasn't at work. And the even more sad, pathetic part is I still pissed a significant part of the day away playing Madden.

Anyway, here's my uninformed recap of week 11. These will be pretty slim, and for that I apologize. That won't be the norm going forward, I swear.

But the truth is, I'm not very enthusiastic about the NFL today or this week. Obviously, the Redskins lost a big game, and that's part of it. But another big part is, frankly, the way the sports media reports the NFL. Really. The Jets put up a really good win in New England and Brett Favre played about his best ball of the season. I'm honestly impressed by their performance. But to hear the national media tell it, it was all Brett Favre, he worked his "magic", Brett Favre carried the Jets to a win. It's not true! At least part of the reason the Jets won the game was New England's hair-brained and overdue-for-maximum-exposure offense.

Well, wait, before we get into that, let's put it in the recap.

New York Jets over New England, 34-21
My Pick: New England over New York Jets, 21-17
Hey, great win for the Jets. They're looking like strong playoff contenders.

Now, as I was saying: the Patriots ran more offensive plays (79-75), had more yards (511-375), more first downs (26-23), and fewer punts (5-4). How, then, did they manage to lose time of possession by 11 minutes? By running that goddamn stat-padding Wes Welker no-huddle bullshit. I hate that crap. Matt Cassel racks up 400 yards passing, Welker gets to set NFL records for receptions, and really all they're doing is putting an unnecessary burden on their defense. New England's old, slow defense was stuck on the field for almost 40 minutes of night-time football in very cold weather. Really, the Patriots were bound to lose.

And honestly, that's all I have to say about that. I don't really like or care about either of these teams at all. At this point, I'm almost rooting for the Jets to go to the Super Bowl just so the Packers can get a higher draft pick for Brett Favre.

Denver over Atlanta, 24-20
My Pick: Atlanta over Denver, 30-24
And again, this one is being spun like it was Jay Cutler leading the Broncos to victory. Yes, Jay Cutler had a nice game. Nothing special, but okay. On the other hand, in Atlanta, somehow Denver's defense held Atlanta to only 20 points despite giving up 250 yards passing, 114 rushing yards, and losing the time of possession battle by 6 minutes. Denver's defense did the job here, Cutler was just a guy who didn't cost his team the game. Is this what has become of "elite" quarterbacks? Go on the road, throw for 216 yards and a score in an upset, and suddenly YOU led your team to victory? Gimme a break.

And if you're a Falcons fan, you're probably quite upset about this loss. You should be. Atlanta is a way, way better team than Denver, and with the way the Falcons have been playing at home, this one should have been a blowout. The Falcons gave up important room in the NFC South and dropped into the thick of the wild-card chase. It's a disappointment. There were bound to be some. Now they need a bounce-back win in week 12 against . . . (hold on, I'm looking) . . . oooohhhhhh, Carolina. At least it's in Atlanta. And what a statement game it could be!

Tampa Bay over Minnesota, 19-13
My Pick: Tampa Bay over Minnesota, 17-13
Minnesota only ran 52 plays in the entire game. They didn't have the ball long enough or do nearly enough with it to establish, really, a damn thing. Frankly, I'm not sure either team did enough to win this game. To take it a step further, I'm not even entirely sure this game actually took place.

New York Giants over Baltimore, 30-10
My Pick: New York Giants over Baltimore, 17-13
Yowza. The Ravens got absolutely flattened Sunday afternoon. They had absolutely no business being on that field. And if anybody thinks the Giants aren't the best team in the NFL, well, that's ridiculous. They're at least two times better than the Titans on offense, and the defenses are right there. I'd take the Giants in any stadium in any city, and I'd give 'em six points.

As for the Ravens, after this kind of ass-whupping, the most important thing is that guys don't start panicking. They were good enough to beat most teams handily before week 11, and they'll still be right there in week 12 if they just stick to the format. The worst thing that could happen to the Ravens would be to start second-guessing themselves. They've got a strong defense and a capable enough offense. The Giants are much better than them, that much is obvious, especially up I-95 in New Jersey, but then the Giants are much better than almost every team in the NFL.

Miami over Oakland, 17-15
My Pick: Miami over Oakland, 31-6
The Raiders scored their first touchdown in 13 years on Sunday, on a 9,000 yard punt return in the fourth quarter. They were perilously close to winning.

Let's be honest, here: did anyone anywhere watch this game?

New Orleans over Kansas City, 30-20
My Pick: New Orleans over Kansas City, 34-27
This was the first road win of the season for the New Orleans Saints. Read that again. Why have we been so hard on the Cardinals for their road woes, when this pansy ass team hasn't won but one road game all goddamn season, and it was a poorly played piece of crap over Kansas City? The Saints suck.

And it looks like Tyler Thigpen came back down to earth just in time for a bunch of morons to start him on their fantasy teams. Nice.

Carolina over Detroit, 31-22
My Pick: Carolina over Detroit, 27-10
How does a team commit only one penalty and dominate time of possession by almost 9 minutes without winning? Maybe by giving up 264 rushing yards on only 30 carries? Holy hell, the Detroit Lions might actually go winless in 2008.

As for Carolina, hey, they found a way to win. That's what matters. It was closer than it should have been, but they did the job at home. Good for them.

Philadelphia and Cincinnati, 13-13
My Pick: Philadelphia over Cincinnati, 41-17
What the fuck. What do you say about this train wreck? I honestly don't know who I'm more disappointed in. The friggin' Eagles are the most dependable piece of shit team in the world. For fuck's sake, if this team even had their helmets on sideways they would have won this game with a double-digit margin. What the hell has happened to the Eagles offense? Donovan McNabb looks like straight up garbage these days. Brian Westbrook is the diminutive Adrian Peterson: at any moment, he could break out. We're waiting for it. We know he's supposed to be dangerous, but it seems like only once or twice a season this guy actually makes a difference in a football game. 13 points? In Cincinnati? What a bunch of bullshit. With as much talent as the Eagles have on offense, they have to stand in their own way to come up with only 13 points against such a dismal defense.

And as for Cincinnati, God almighty. Two drives into Eagles territory in overtime. Two chances to win the game. When your quarterback is sacked 8 times, when you rush for only 56 yards, when the only reason you're in the game at all is because the opponent's Pro Bowl quarterback is imploding left and right, your goddamn veteran kicker really effing needs to connect on that field goal. You don't have a game gift-wrapped like that and squander it away. Look at the Rams in Washington a few weeks ago: outplayed left and right, but a few turnovers and just a few opportunities, and they found a way. Even the Rams can find a way. Not the Bengals, I guess.

Green Bay over Chicago, 37-3
My Pick: Green Bay over Chicago, 23-16
Holy hell, what a pounding. Good teams do not lose by 34 points to division foes. Not ever.

Sorry, Chicago, but you've got a pretender on your hands. A gutsy pretender, a troublesome pretender that could spoil a lot of playoff hopes down the stretch, but a pretender all the same. The Bears got obliterated in Green Bay. Any ranked D-1 college football team could have stepped in for the Bears and you might not have noticed.

As for Green Bay, is it too much to ask, when you put up 37 points, maybe your quarterback puts up some ungodly numbers? Christ, when the Jets score 14 points, somehow Brett Favre manages to come away with 4 touchdowns. Matt Cassel put up 400 yards and another 60 on the ground in a 20 point effort. The Packers score 37 and I get a measly 227 yards and 2 scores from Rodgers. Thanks a lot, asshole.

Indianapolis over Houston, 33-27
My Pick: Indianapolis over Houston, 34-27
Pretty close, right? One friggin' point.

And maybe it's not the media that's pissing me off. There's a poll on one of the major NFL sites that asks which 6-4 AFC team is best. The options: Indy, Miami, New England, Baltimore, Denver. The way I see it, this is a pretty close race. I'd probably pick New England, although Indy's resume is pretty nice. It turns out Indy won the poll. My problem, here, was that the Broncos came in second place. The Broncos? The horrible Broncos? The biggest pretender above .500 in the AFC? The best team in the NFL's worst ever division? The Broncos, with the NFL's fourth worst defense, no backfield, a turnover prone quarterback, and horrible team chemistry? Better than the plucky and always competitive Dolphins? Better than the sharp, always professional, well-coached, well-rounded Patriots? Better than a Ravens team with a top-5 defense and 3rd-ranked rushing offense? No fucking way.

What does this have to do with the Indy-Houston game? Nothing, I guess. But I'd rather talk about it than the game. I don't know what happened in this contest, even though I had a whopping 3 players on my fantasy team playing in the game.

San Francisco over St. Louis, 35-16
My Pick: San Francisco over St. Louis, 24-20
A totally meaningless game. I don't care who played well and who didn't.

Arizona over Seattle, 26-20
My Pick: Arizona over Seattle, 27-24
What little steam I had is running out fast. I have nothing to say about this game. In fact, I'll be back later to talk about the last four games. I'm totally out of juice.

Tennessee over Jacksonville, 24-14
My Pick: Jacksonville over Tennessee, 21-20
I'm back now, and I still have no juice.

This will be the last time I pick against the Titans during the regular season. I can't believe I've done it for two weeks in a row now. They don't have much left on their schedule, so with far less fanfare and general gayness from the national sports media, the Tennessee Titans are closing in on an improbable undefeated season. They really could do it. And all of a sudden, the dirty feeling we all got from the contemptible undefeated regular season of the 2007 Patriots would be washed away. We'd feel totally differently about the achievement if a team like this Titans group pulled it off, and for that reason, I'm very much hoping they will.

And I've probably just doomed them to lose next week. Ah well.

Pittsburgh over San Diego, 11-10
My Pick: Pittsburgh over San Diego, 28-23
I'm a lot like the San Diego Chargers, in that I no longer care whether or not they win or lose.

As for that debacle at the end of the game, it was some bullshit. I have a hard time figuring out where the forward pass was supposed to have taken place, too. It doesn't look to me like either of those laterals went forward, and I can't imagine how the refs ended up blowing it. In fact, I'd be willing to wager you could take a random handful of Steelers fans between the ages of 18-40, put striped uniforms on 'em, send 'em out there at the end of that game, and they would have gotten that call right. For as badly as Ed Hochuli blew that fumble call earlier in the season, this was so much more discouraging. Hochuli made a split-second call, got it wrong, and there was no possible recourse. In the case of these morons, they got the call right, then went out of their way to go back and get it wrong.

Now here's an interesting thing: the closing line for that game was Pittsburgh by 4.5. Before that last second touchdown, the Steelers were up one. After the play, when no flag was thrown, the refs went back and called a penalty that absolutely did not take place, then put the penalty in the wrong part of the timeline of the play, then screwed up the ruling about whether or not the penalty should have had any impact on the result of the play even if declined. So the margin went back to 1 instead of 7 or 8, thereby keeping the score within the spread.

I'm just saying.

Dallas over Washington, 14-10
My Pick: Washington over Dallas, 26-24
Yes, the Redskins lost.

Yes, the offensive line was bad in protection.

I fucking refuse to do the panic thing. I refuse. I swear to God, I'm not getting sucked into the bullshit.

I just went back and watched the highlights of that game on NFL.com, and I really did my best to watch them like another NFL fan from another NFL city might watch them, wanting to know what happened in the game Sunday night. Here's what I saw:

I saw a hard-hitting, sharp, professional Washington defense punishing Dallas ball-carriers left and right. That's a good thing.

I saw a unit that has been pretty under the radar this season come up with some big hits and two interceptions on one of the NFL's "elite" quarterbacks. That's a good thing.

I saw a rookie safety stay around the ball and generally impress the shit out of me. Good.

I saw Redskins corners thumping guys around the line of scrimmage and in the secondary. Good.

I saw an injured tailback race through Dallas' defense on fourth and one, setting up an early score. Good.

I saw a sharp, professional, accurate quarterback complete over 70% of his passes. Good.

I saw a good, solid, sharp team with a potentially great defense give themselves a chance to win.

On the other side of the ball, I saw a focused, desperate Cowboys team bringing as much heat as they could on any passing down, and doing a damn good job of disrupting the pocket and the timing of Washington's passing game.

I saw a quarterback shake off a few bad passes to come up with a couple of gutsy throws down the stretch, including a game-winner.

I saw a big offensive line and a hard-running tailback wear down a sturdy defense in the fourth quarter.

In short, I didn't see a bad thing in that game. I don't like the outcome, but c'mon. San Diego put ten up in Pittsburgh. Know what I'm thinking about, relative to San Diego? A) Their offense is better than that, obviously, and B) they have a 4-6 record. With the Redskins, if I were an impartial observer from another team, I guarantee right now I'd be thinking A) well, they're still perfecting this new Zorn offense, B) Dallas' defense played a great game, C) Washington's defense kept 'em in the game and looked friggin' monstrous, and D) hey, they're 6-4, they're still in good shape.

So for today only, I'm an outsider. They're 6-4. The defense is outstanding. It's a new offense. The tailback was banged up. Dallas' defense was great. The Redskins are a good team in good position to finish strong and make the post-season.

That's not to say there aren't some things they could improve upon.

It's important that they find a way to stretch the field, because teams are catching up to the short passing attack. If nothing else, teams have learned they can stack the box against the Redskins to hopefully slow down Clinton Portis, and it won't hurt them too badly when it comes to defending Washington's passing attack.

Pass protection is obviously a big problem. I have a feeling a large part of that could be solved by going back to draw plays, slants, and the occasional screen. I happen to think Washington's play-calling has gotten a bit predictable in the last few weeks, and I think that makes it easier get consistent pressure on Jason Campbell.

Laron Landry needs to be around the line of scrimmage more often. Against the Cowboys, both of Tony Romo's interceptions came when Laron Landry was either threatening to blitz or actually blitzing. On the second one, not only did Carlos Rogers blow up Terrell Owens, but Landry blew up Romo, one of the few hits Romo took on the night. Landy is Washington's most athletic defender, and he has a knack for creating havoc in the backfield when he's around the line of scrimmage. And if it can't be him, slide Chris Horton in there on every passing down. He also has a real knack for creating pressure.

Washington cannot continue having so many three-and-out possessions. The whole deal with Zorn's West Coast Offense is timing and rhythm. There's no way Jason Campbell can get in rhythm as a passer in such short possessions early in the game. The lack of rhythm contributes to the success of the opposing pass-rush; if Campbell has to take an extra half-second to find an open man, it gives the rush that much more time to disrupt him in the pocket, which either leads to sacks, hits, or rushed passes, all of which further disrupt his timing and rhythm. I'd like to see the Redskins come out with some can't-miss type of passes early in the game, like screens, slants, hitches, and play-action bombs. Generally, these have one option, and in the case of screens and slants, they're almost always good for a completion. With the way the Redskins are running the ball, they should be able to generate a few early first downs and get a little rhythm going if they go with the simple stuff early.

I'll be interested to see how they do in Seattle on Sunday. They look about as healthy as they've been in weeks and weeks, and they badly need a win to get back a little confidence. For my part, I'm not so down on the Redskins. I hate the Cowboys, I wish the game had gone differently, but if I'm Joe Dung from Missour-ah, and I only know what I sawon TV, I saw two professional, sharp, hard-hitting teams fight to the death, and the team that was able to convert one big play came away with a much-needed win. It happens.

Cleveland over Buffalo, 29-27
My Pick: Buffalo over Cleveland, 20-17
I'll be honest: I don't really know what happened Monday night. I know Trent Edwards was abysmal. I know Brady Quinn wasn't much better. I know Phil Dawson nailed a 56-yard bomb. I know Leodis McKelvin had a 98-yard touchdown return. I was glad to see Marshawn Lynch finally break out a little bit.

Mostly, it's clear to me neither of these teams is going anywhere this season and that makes this a meaningless Monday night game.

I don't have any rankings or anything like that for this week. I'll be lucky to get my picks out before tonight's game, for crying out loud. I might end up doing some sort of ranking or something later in the week. I remember last year I projected the playoff picture at about this point in the season and ended up getting all but one team correct. Maybe I'll give that another try this season. We'll see. For now, I'm going to get cracking on my week 12 picks. I did go 11-5 this week, and I think I went something like 10-6 last week. Maybe I'll compile my total win-loss record for next week's recap.

Peace!

Motherfucking Week 11 Picks

2008-11-12T11:58:00.000-08:00

And off we go, y'all!

New York Jets @ New England
The Line: New England by 3
Hey, another totally wacky line by Vegas. Let's recap:

In week 2, in Matt Cassel's first career start, in New Jersey, the Patriots beat the Jets for the 10th time in 11 matchups, 19-10. 9 points. In New Jersey. In Matt Cassel's first career start. 10th time in 11 games.

Here we are, 9 weeks later, and the Jets are going to New England to face a much improved Patriots team, only the Patriots are only favored by 3. 3 points? Really?

But here's the thing about this game: you just can't say you know either team, even after 9 games apiece. You can't predict from week to week who Brett Favre is going to help win on any given Sunday. The same could be said for Matt Cassel. One week, the Jets run the ball extremely well, the next they give the ball to 3 different guys 4 times each and ring up a whopping 22 minutes of time of possession. With the Patriots, one day Kevin Faulk's corpse leads the team with 8 carries for 19 yards, the next week some guy with 8 surnames is ringing up a buck twenty and two scores. So what's constant, here?

Well, in New York's case, the two constants have been the play of their defense and their creampuff schedule. In New England's case, the constants have been the A+ coaching and Wes Welker's almost meaningless production as the most overrated "underrated" player in the history of sports. Headed into this game, we can go ahead and eliminate one of the constants: New England is no pushover, so the Jets won't benefit from their opponent's ineptitude. But we can probably go ahead and be sure their defense will stuff the run. We can go ahead and be sure Bill Belichick will have a great gameplan for the Pats. We can go ahead and pencil in 6 garbage underneath catches to Captain Hitch.

And since the game is in New England and they get to keep both of their constants, they'll win.
Patriots over Jets, 21-17

Denver @ Atlanta
The Line: Atlanta by 6
There's a healthy looking line.

Atlanta is just too monstrous at home. They flat-out overwhelm teams in their stadium. They run the ball too well, they rush the passer too well, and they have an uncanny knack for hitting big plays in the first half. Denver doesn't stop the run, Jay Cutler doesn't respond well at all to heavy pressure, and the run game will set up all the playaction in the world for Matt Ryan. Nah, I think Atlanta covers the six points (and then some) and I think this one is probably over by halftime.

Denver is one of those old-school .500 teams, and I kinda respect them for it. Once upon a time, there were two kinds of .500 football teams: the teams that played one way for one half of the season, then another way for the other, and the teams that had one big-time strength they could use to kill some teams, but they'd never beat certain other kinds of teams. Denver fits comfortably into the latter group. They do one thing well: they connect on mid-range and deep passes. That's it. Teams that can't put together a strong pass rush or keep Denver off the field will be in trouble. Teams that can get in the backfield or have good rush offenses will be fine.

Nowadays, you've got the "Del Rio" .500 teams that have no consistent identity whatsoever, so they can put up 38 points against one bottom feeder right after dropping consecutive games to two others. "Del Rio" .500 teams are poorly coached. They don't get maximum value from their players, they don't have good gameplans, they don't consistently show up, and they have no identity. This recent phenomenon is the result of the dilution of talent in the NFL. No, not player talent; coaching talent. 20 years ago, Jack Del Rio would be where he belongs: coaching special teams or linebackers on someone else's staff. As a head coach, you never know what kind of effort to expect from his team week to week, and it's maddening.

So at least I respect the Broncos for having an identity. It makes it easy to know which games they'll compete in and which games they'll get pounded in. I think they'll get pounded in this one. We'll see if my formula holds up.
Falcons over Broncos, 30-24

Minnesota @ Tampa Bay
The Line: Tampa Bay by 3.5
No matter what else happens, this one should be ugly and low scoring.

Unlike other games, I'd say Minnesota's one chance in this one actually isn't Adrian Peterson. Peterson might have a nice game, but I'd say the chances of him breaking out for a monster are as slim as they'll be all season. Against this infernal Tampa-2, Minnesota badly needs Gus Frerotte to hit a couple of big plays to Bernard Berrian. They've had it in 'em a few times this season and they need to find it again on Sunday. I just don't see Minnesota sustaining drives at all against Tampa's signature defense, especially not with the way Frerotte has been throwing the ball lately. They'll need big plays or turnovers to win this game. I think we can write off altogether the possibility of them doing anything positive on special teams. Frankly, it'd be noteworthy if their special teams don't lose the game for them.

The only story I care about in this one is the return of Cadillac Williams. What a draw, right? "Hey, glad to see you've recovered from having your leg almost snapped off, here's Minnesota's third-ranked rush defense to welcome you back to action!" Yipe. Frankly, I'd like to see him sit this one out and maybe knock the rust off against someone like . . . say . . . Detroit, who Tampa visits in week 12. It'd just be a fantastic story and great, great news if Williams is able to return to being a productive player. A few years back, this guy had a big-time season and won Rookie of the Year for it.

So let's say he returns in this game and is everything he was before he was hurt. Know what? That could make a big difference in the outcome here. But there's just no way to predict that, and besides, with Jon Gruden running the offense, Williams or Ernest Graham will probably pass out from shock if they hear a running play called in the huddle.

Make a pick already. Christ.

The game is in Tampa, their defense is pretty nuts, and Minnesota is incompetent both in the passing game and on special teams. A big play will decide the day. In Minnesota's case, they're far more likely to cause a big play for the opposition by just being a pack of poorly coached morons. Therefore . . .
Bucs over Vikings, 17-13

Baltimore @ New York Giants
The Line: New York Giants by 6.5
I effing love this match-up. I can't wait!

Baltimore's defense is actually underrated this season. Pittsburgh's defense has gotten more attention. Tennessee's defense has gotten more attention. New York's defense has gotten more attention. But Baltimore's defense might actually be the best of the bunch. You cannot run on the Ravens. They have the second ranked overall defense and the best rush defense in the NFL, and they are nasty. I just love the idea of Tom Coughlin dialing up a first quarter full of Brandon Jacobs lowering his shoulders into the interior of Baltimore's defense. I can't wait. In last season's Super Bowl, Coughlin made a statement early by cramming Jacobs up New England's ass, and on his turf against this swaggering unit, I expect more of the same. I can't wait!

Baltimore, on the other hand, will have to be a bit more calculating, and they'll probably have to take a few more risks. I don't see them having a ton of success running the ball against New York's third ranked overall defense, but unlike New York's offense, there's just no way Baltimore can expect Joe Flacco to drop back and throw often without either having his head and spleen removed or throwing a bunch of interceptions. Flacco could have a great game, but you just can't predict it and you can't game-plan for it. Luckily, John Harbaugh hasn't been shy at all about dialing up the gadget plays, and I think it'll take something along those lines to get some offense going in New York. It should be fun. I can't friggin' wait!

Ultimately, New York has some hard to define edge. It can't really be Eli Manning: secretly the entire national sports media knows he's still just as capable of crapping the bed against a ferocious defense as ever. It's not their defense because their defense isn't better than Baltimore's. It could be depth on offense. No, I guess the edge is experience in big games, and this qualifies as a big game for both teams; a huge game, actually. This is about as close to a playoff game as any week 11 regular season non-conference game can be. Baltimore can keep pace in the division and potentially take a commanding step forward in the wildcard race, to say nothing of the prestige that comes with knocking off the red-hot Super Bowl champs at home. New York will probably be in a dog-fight all season long in the NFC East, especially if they can't put Baltimore away at home. I'm giving New York the edge, Vegas is giving New York the edge, but this game should be physical, desperately fought, and entertaining as hell. And ultimately, it'll probably come down to the home team making those few key plays, here and there, that decide a close game.
Giants over Ravens, 17-13

Oakland @ Miami
The Line: Miami by 10.5
We thought Oakland was crap at home, just wait until they have to travel all the way across the country for a 1pm game in Miami. This should be an absolute horror.

One great thing about the NFL is the way design, scheme, playbook, coaching style, and personnel all sort of fit together to produce a special team. On a special team, you've got guys who really know the system, work well with the coaches, and have taken ownership of the fate of the team. On the other hand, a really sad thing that happens in the NFL is the way poor executive decisions, turnover, and turmoil can utterly ruin a very talented player's career, such that we remember them only for how they failed to deliver on their draft stock. We're not quite there yet with JaMarcus Russell, but I'm starting to get a sick feeling about this kid every time I think about him toiling in such a poisonous environment, under such disastrous management, with such a scrap heap of talent around him, and with so much turnover above his head. Lane Kiffin might not have been a great coach, but he was a coach, anyway, and he understood offense and quarterbacking. Tom Cable is definitely not a great coach, and after this season, he probably won't be a coach at all. And the thing is, the Raiders have been so awful for so long, the next guy to come in is going to have to be somebody who is thinking about turning things around right away. I give Oakland's diseased fanbase a lot of shit, but it says something that they haven't grown totally apathetic in the last 6 years. They're right on the brink now. Local blackouts are becoming the norm. The next person to take the reigns in Oakland will need to be a Mike Smith, Tony Sparano, Jim Zorn type, who has a strong identity for his team and the magical ability to have success right away. Which will mean JaMarcus Russell will have to adapt quickly or be dumped.

Frankly, and I hate to say it, but this kid is screwed. Can anybody say "Akili Smith"?

Miami wins this game, probably huge. Apparently Al Davis has forced Tom Cable to take playcalling responsibilities away from Greg Knapp in Oakland. Can you imagine that shit? Friggin' Al Davis calls you up into his office and says, "from now on, you're calling plays." Ummmm, what?

Right, as I was saying, Miami wins huge.
Dolphins over Raiders, 31-6

New Orleans @ Kansas City
The Line: Saints by 5
I don't know, New Orleans by five on the road? Well, on the other hand, Kansas City is dog-shit, and they'll do whatever they can to lose this game. That much they've already established.

I said it in my week 10 recap and I'll say it again here: if you're an NFL fan, you're bummed the Saints are in Kansas City this weekend as opposed to, say, Baltimore or New York or Philadelphia or Arizona or New England. Another loss here and it won't be unofficial any longer: the Saints will be all but technically eliminated from contention. On the one hand, more teams in contention means more games that matter. On the other, more important hand, if the Saints go down we can stop recycling the "they might get hot" theme every other week. Forget the Saints. They made improvements to their defense this season, but they haven't panned out. Another season, who knows? But this team has no business in the playoff discussion, and I'm ready to officially eliminate them.

As for the Chiefs, I mean, what the fuck. I will never ever ever take this team seriously as long as Herm Edwards is calling the shots. I'm not kidding, the Chiefs would have to win back-to-back Super Bowls before I'd even start taking them seriously. If they win the Super Bowl in 2009, it'll only influence my opinion of the NFL and the AFC. This guy cannot coach. He cannot. From now until he quits coaching forever, I will only feel pity for his players and the fans of whatever franchise is stupid enough to hire him.

So though it annoys me to no end, I'm not only picking the goddamn Saints, I'm actually rooting for the goddamn motherfuckers. And I NEVER root for the favorites, not unless the Redskins are the favorites, especially not pansy-ass butter-soft overrated pieces of crap like this New Orleans team.
Saints over Chiefs, 34-27

Detroit @ Carolina
The Line: Carolina by 14
I have a bad, bad feeling about whoever lines up at quarterback for the Lions this week. Carolina's pass rush is coming along big-time, and Detroit is circling the drain. The only quarterback on Detroit's roster I'd feel comfortable picking to survive this game is Dan Orlovsky, and only then because he's played a few games without running out the back of the end zone. When your best chance is Dan Orlovsky because he hasn't scored points for the opponent in a while, you're in bad shape.

But it won't be Dan Orlovsky. Not only is he apparently not the guy in Detroit, he's also injured. It'll be Daunte Culpepper. Culpepper is an outstanding, outstanding quarterback. Give this guy two seasons in an offense with a stable coaching staff and roster, and he'll start to put up big numbers. But he's had all of 2 weeks to get familiar with Detroit's offense, and keep in mind we're talking about one of the worst, most pathetic offenses in a decade. This isn't like a talented drummer trying to come in and quickly get into a groove with the Rolling Stones, okay, this is like a talented drummer coming into an elementary school band two weeks before they open for the Rolling Stones. It's going to be a disaster, and if he leaves with his reputation intact, it'll be a miracle. For the third time in as many stops for this guy, I feel just horrible for him.

Any hope the Lions win this game? Maybe. Somewhat better than a snowball's chance in hell. But the odds are long. Real long.
Panthers over Lions, 27-10

Philadelphia @ Cincinnati
The Line: Philadelphia by 9
I'll be interested to see how Ryan Fitzpatrick plays against Philly's confusing, aggressive defense. Look, I'm not putting Fitzpatrick in the class of other young quarterbacks, like Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. The simple fact of the matter is, after this season, Flacco and Ryan will have jobs and fans and contract extensions and maybe even an award or something, whereas Ryan Fitzpatrick will have some bruises, a shite reputation, and the depressing reality that his best chance to stick in the NFL will be as backup to Carson Palmer on the nauseatingly dysfunctional Cincinnati Bengals. Congratulations, you poor bastard.

Nevertheless, he's shown some spirit in his starts this season, and that's enough to make him officially the only thing related to the Cincinnati Bengals I give even a half a damn about.

As for the Eagles, the question isn't whether they should win the game, although they'd have you believe otherwise. As far as the Eagles are concerned, the fact that they're better on paper than the Bengals ought to be enough to get them . . . what, into the playoffs, perhaps? So I guess we're watching to see whether or not they show up, and if they do, how much of a pounding can they put on the Bengals? It should be hideous. I can't promise or even feel the least bit confident the Eagles will show up with any energy at all. They should win anyway.

So I guess I'll go out on a limb and predict the Eagles manage to give a damn about this game, and therefore, they'll whip the living shit out of Cincinnati.
Eagles over Bengals, 41-17

Chicago @ Green Bay
The Line: Green Bay by 4
If last week wasn't the whole season for the Packers, certainly this one is. There's pressure on this team that a lot of other franchises don't have to deal with, and if they lose this game and drop so far behind the division lead, the confidence hit will be tremendous.

They're lucky, though, to be playing for their season at home. Consider it like a home playoff game, because it's every bit as important. And fortunately, Chicago's secondary hasn't been worth a damn for a while this season and it probably won't be on Sunday. The key, then, will be whether Green Bay's offensive line can protect against what is actually a pretty fierce Bears pass rush. If not, Green Bay could be in trouble, because Ryan Grant's sorry ass probably won't break out against Chicago's tough run defense.

But Green Bay doesn't necessarily need a big game from their offense to win on Sunday. They showed against Minnesota that they can score in other ways, and they'll get chances to make defensive plays against the Bears, especially if Rex Grossman plays. The Packers will obviously want to shut down Matt Forte and force Grossman to make plays against Green Bay's talented, play-making secondary. With any luck, that'll get Green Bay a few short fields, and that could be enough for them to win.

Then there's this: this is an NFC North game, and as we've already established this season, throw anything obvious out the window. This game could be anything: the teams could combine for 10 points and 200 yards of total offense, or it could be a ridiculous farce, a 90 point, 1,000 yard circus with a half dozen turnovers and two special teams touchdowns. Who the fuck knows?

This game has a ton of meaning for one team and not as much for the other. It means more to the home team, so I'm pickin' 'em.
Packers over Bears, 23-16

Houston @ Indianapolis
The Line: Indianapolis by 8.5
For the umpteenth week in a row, we'll hope to discover whether or not Indianapolis is serious about making a run this season. They've won two very tough games in a row. Now they have the division doormat at home with a chance to burst towards the top of the AFC Wild Card race. Do they have it? If they do, they'll effing pound the shit out of the Texans. I don't know, though. I'm still skeptical. I suppose we all are.

But you can't underestimate the "Sage Rosenfels" factor. In an incredibly short period of time this season, Rosenfels has established himself as the suicide quarterback. His finest work, in fact, came against these Colts in week 5, in a performance that will, sadly, probably define his career. In two starts in 2008, Rosenfels has 7 turnovers. 7 turnovers! Extrapolate that bitch out to 16 games, and you're talking about 56 turnovers! I'm not saying he's that bad a quarterback, but it takes a special effort to be on that sort of pace.

At any rate, in seasons past, this is the kind of game Indy would use to flex their muscles a little. If they're anything like their former selves, they'll win this game going away. Shit. It's really hard to pick it that way, but I do have that feeling. On the other hand, Houston's offense is better than either New England's or Pittsburgh's, so I guess I could see Houston hanging around unless Indy comes up huge on offense.

You know what? I can't make it a blowout. I can't. Maybe if it is a blowout, I'll be able to pick some that way for Indy down the stretch. This is a "show me" game, I guess.
Colts over Texans, 34-27

St. Louis @ San Francisco
The Line: San Francisco by 6
Yeah, I'm not going to pretend to care about this game. I suppose the 49ers will win. I won't pick them to cover the spread. There you have it.
49ers over Rams, 24-20

Arizona @ Seattle
The Line: Arizona by 3
And that's about all you need to know about how confident anyone is in Arizona's ability to win on the road: 3 points? Against the god-awful Seahawks? There's something there.

Matt Hasselbeck may play, but I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid. More than any other quarterback that I can remember in the NFL, Hasselbeck is only as good as the receivers he's throwing the ball to and the protection in front of him. When the protection is great and the receivers are solid, Hasselbeck can put up some numbers. When the protection is off, even a little, or he's not totally familiar with the receivers, Hasselbeck plays like an F- piece of shit loser. Seriously. If this guy doesn't exemplify the concept of front-running, nobody does. And this Seahawks team is in the toilet, his receivers are banged up, his line is awful, and the defense hasn't been good enough to keep the offense in range anyway. So Matt Hasselbeck, no Matt Hasselbeck, this team sucks.

But it's not like the goddamn Cardinals are invincible. A team with their history in this division is one of two things this week: either frothing at the mouth about the opportunity to splatter the former division big-dog all over their own stadium, or hollow in the stomach and shivering under a cold sweat about the idea of traveling to hellish Seattle and putting their momentum on the line against a team that has historically owned them. Hopefully this is a different Cardinals team. I know the Seahawks are dogshit, but won't we learn quite a bit about Arizona coming out of this game? The Giants, the Ravens, the Steelers, the Patriots, even the Eagles, these teams would pound the living shit out of the Seahawks under similar circumstances. Those are the hungry, pissed off, intimidating teams. That's one of those traits you have to have to be a serious contender. Arizona is among the group of good teams that may not have the killer instinct, but we might feel differently about that if they go up to Seattle and tear the Seahawks to shreds in front of their crowd, no matter who steps under center for Seattle.

Obviously, I'm not sold on them having the killer instinct yet. Right now, I'm comfortable picking them, even on the road, even in Seattle, but I think it'll be closer than it should be.
Cardinals over Seahawks, 27-24

Tennessee @ Jacksonville
The Line: Tennessee by 3
Tennessee could also be in that group that may or may not be killers. I think they are. It seems like Keith Bulluck, Albert Haynesworth, and Cortland Finnegan were born killers. Kerry Collins is an old pro, you can't expect him to let up for anybody. Jeff Fisher is a baller and has been around the block, I'd expect any team coached by him to have a killer instinct. But this will be the game where we learn for sure. Jacksonville is down but not out. Tennessee can deliver a gruesome, definitive death blow Sunday afternoon.

It was encouraging to see Jacksonville squeeze the innards out of Detroit on Sunday, if for no other reason than it shows they weren't looking ahead to the Titans. Going full speed and flattening the Lions into an oily smear was probably the best possible way to get ready for an all or nothing home game against the league's dominant team.

This game probably comes down to whether or not Jacksonville can slow down Tennessee's ground game like Chicago did, and whether they can create a short field for themselves and take advantage. For the second time in two weeks, I'm going to go out on a limb here and pick the home team. Seriously, Tennessee has to lose sooner or later, right? And this is the second straight road game against what ought to be a tough, physical opponent. That's never a great thing. I could feel really stupid again on Monday, but I just have a feeling the Jaguars will still be lingering come week 12.
Jaguars over Titans, 21-20

San Diego @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh by 4.5
Pittsburgh will be in a bit of trouble if they lose this one. It'll be three straight home losses, and they might even find themselves in second place in the North. So it's a damn important game for the Steelers. Obviously, it's a damn important game for the Chargers, too, but when have the Chargers ever shown they understand the importance of any given game?

I don't think I can pick the Chargers. Not only do they have a crappy defense, they tend to shoot themselves in the foot and they're as poorly prepared and poorly coached as any team in football. Not only that, but I doubt Philip Rivers will be able to carry his offense against such a ferocious defense. I just can't pick 'em. Especially not on the road.

It could happen. Pittsburgh is a disjointed piece of crap at the moment, they're banged up, and they don't seem to be able to build any momentum from game to game. The good news for them is this is the second of three straight home games, and good teams tend to get healthy and gain some momentum when they get a few at home in a row. If they played poorly against Indy, they're likely to play a lot better against the Chargers. But think about how bad this would be for Pittsburgh's confidence if they go from losing a home game to the desperate Colts (who used to be the AFC's powerhouse), to losing at home to a desperate Chargers team (the glossy AFC favorite). That'd be a bad thing.

So I don't think it'll happen. In Mike Tomlin's short tenure as Pittsburgh's head coach, his team has been a lot better at home. I don't think they could possibly lose a third straight at Heinz, especially not at the hands of this soft-ass, poorly coached mess from San Diego. I'm picking the Steelers, I feel confident they'll win.
Steelers over Chargers, 28-23

Dallas @ Washington
The Line, and the Best News I've Ever Gotten: Dallas by 3
Dallas by 3. Dallas (5-4) by 3 in Washington. Dallas (5-4), who lost to Washington at home 7 weeks ago, by 3 in Washington. Christmas came early this year, y'all.

What a huge, huge insult. I had to close and reload that webpage multiple times to make sure that line was correct. Dallas (5-4), who lost to Washington (6-3) at home 7 weeks ago, by 3 in Washington, with Wade Phillips as head coach. My God. When has any 6-3 team ever been so disrespected by the media, by Vegas, or by opponents? At this point, Jim Zorn playing the "nobody believes in us" card would almost be overkill.

What's worse? The Cowboys by 13.5 in Dallas in week 4, or the Cowboys by 3 in Washington in week 11? I'm stunned, stunned by that line.

And it will make it so, so, so much worse if the Redskins lose at home when the friggin' Cowboys are favored after losing to the Redskins in Dallas this season. That can't happen.

How the fuck do I pick this game? I can't even get my mind right after reading that. How the hell do I even begin to think about how either team wins or loses this contest? Fuck! I'm friggin' blown by this. What can I do but take the exact score from the week 4 game and drop it in here. The Redskins must win this game. They know it. They have the better coach. They had the bye week, which is like multiplying the better coach factor by 10. They must win.

The Cowboys must win this game, but do they know it? Wade Phillips is a bad, bad coach. A bye week doesn't mean shit for a bad coach. A must-win doesn't mean shit for a bad coach.

I'm picking the Redskins, let's lay that out right now.

In order to win this game, the Redskins need a healthy Clinton Portis, and they need him tearing up the Dallas defense. They need a calm, upright Jason Campbell moving the chains. They absolutely must get regular pressure on Tony Romo, and they absolutely must give the offense a short field by either forcing turnovers, getting big special teams plays, or both. By God, the Redskins should win this motherfucking game. I'm even giving them the biggest boost of all by not personally watching the game on television, but tracking it online and on the radio. They can't get a bigger advantage than that. C'mon, guys . . .
Redskins over Cowboys, 26-24

Cleveland @ Buffalo
The Line: Buffalo by 5
Cleveland can deliver a death blow to Buffalo's once promising season on Monday night. Will they do it? Watch and see!
Bills over Browns, 20-17

Go Skynards!

Week 10 Recap

2008-11-07T13:46:00.001-08:00

A few quick-hit notes before we cut into the recap:

1. Tom Jackson was on fire on ESPN Radio's Sunday pregame show! First, he talked about how Pittsburgh's offensive line isn't as bad as you think, as evidenced by how they protected Byron Leftwich in the second half against Washington. He pointed out that Ben Roethlisberger holds onto the ball far too long not just waiting for a guy to get open, but waiting for a guy to get open 20 yards down field or longer. When Leftwich was in the game, he was almost never hit and the Steelers moved the ball better than they had all night. Now, that's not to say Leftwich would be an improvement over Roethlisberger (but it is to think it loudly), but maybe Big Ben could learn something from watching tape of Leftwich. Roethlisberger was scattershot and on his ass, Leftwich was upright and accurate. Some teams do a great job of taking away the deep ball, and Washington is one of those teams. Coming into the game, it's hard to believe Pittsburgh wouldn't have tried to adjust the play of the quarterback to have success. I think Roethlisberger's just wired that way.
Jackson's second point was about the Bills and Trent Edwards. Edwards has been very solid this season, but in their losses, he's turned the ball over too much and in the worst possible times of the game. Nobody's suggesting Edwards is a choke artist or anything, but the fact is, the way Turk Schoenert calls plays in Buffalo, the pass is designed to set up the run. When Edwards is way off, as he's been a few times this season, it allows teams to stack up the box against Marshawn Lynch. Lynch is a talented runner, but he ain't no Adrian Peterson.
And the third and final great point he made was about New England, and I was wondering if anybody in the national media was going to point this out: Rodney Harrison might be a leader and a big hitter and a smart player and all the rest, but New England's defense is a hundred times faster now that he's out. I mean, they still have a slow defense, but it helps having at least a single secondary player who can run around back there, and now that lead-footed Harrison is on the shelf, there's actually a little bit of speed on New England's defense.

Now, my own point:

When the Redskins first picked up DeAngelo Hall, I liked the move. You might have noticed from my post earlier in the week. First of all, Hall may be a brash personality, but "bad" DeAngelo was only really a turd in two pretty bad circumstances: when the Falcons brought in Bobby Petrino (an asshole if ever there was one), and in Oakland, which is like a black hole. There's hope yet that he may not be such a bad guy. Fred Smoot was a real cock in college and a full-blown disaster in Minnesota. Guys change. Reputations are sometimes bogus.
Second, the Redskins have been banged up in the secondary all season. This move gave them depth, and quality depth at that.
Third, Hall would be playing close to home, which is probably a good thing, although why, I can't say.
Fourth, the Redskins are a humble, hard-working defense built mostly out of steady veterans and a few no-name impact youngsters. The whole vibe of the team, top to bottom, is professional, humble, quiet, and hard-working. In other words, exactly the kind of environment to bring a loudmouth like DeAngelo Hall down to earth.
Fifth, the cost of bringing this guy on for a year is next to squat. Less than half a million bucks.
Sixth, it's now all of a sudden a contract year for Hall, which means he needs to look great, act great, fit in, suck up, get to practice early, leave late, and never be seen without his playbook. Guys almost always play better in contract years, and this is like a contract half-year after a disasterous stint in Oakland, better known as Football Hell.

Then, to make room on the roster, the Redskins cut Leigh Torrance.

Now, I hope Vinny Cerrato's head explodes in the middle of his midday radio show. Cutting Torrance for Hall makes zero sense. Torrance is a good special teamer. He knows the system. He's more quiet, he's much cheaper, and he's only 2 years older than Hall. Malcolm Kelly could have very easily gone on IR. Justin Tryon could have been cut from the practice squad, and they could have sent Rob Jackson back down to the practice squad to make room for Hall, especially now that Jason Taylor is back healthy. Any number of roster moves could have been made that A) kept a semi-valuable part of the defense intact, B) kept a very valuable part of the special teams intact, C) actually improved the depth in the secondary, where the Redskins have been hurting, D) kept a defender who is familiar with the defense, and E) didn't cost the Redskins a young, fairly competent player who actually sees the field on Sunday.

So now I'm angry about this move. This reeks of Dan Snyder and Vinny Cerrato getting big eyes over a big name free agent.

And now, the recap. Let's dig right in:

Broncos over Browns, 34-30
My Pick: Browns over Broncos, 22-17
Yeesh. Choke job.

Brady Quinn outplayed Jay Cutler. C'mon, if you watched the game and know football, it's obvious. Cutler had 447 yards on the night. He got a miracle catch from Nate Jackson on a chicken-shit Brett Favre ball that should have been picked off. He got a miracle run from Daniel Graham on a crossing route, when apparently nobody on Cleveland had any interest in tackling him. Most importantly, he got a miraculously terrible defensive play on a 93-yard catch and run by Eddie Royal, when the defensive back not only took his eyes off the ball, not only tried to make a blind play on the ball, not only failed to address the receiver in any way, but actually tried to pull a Superman routine and fly through the air. When you miss on that kind of play, you don't just embarrass yourself. You embarrass your nation.

Quinn, on the other hand, did not make a single bad decision on the night. He was accurate, he was sharp, he was poised. Unlike Derek Anderson, he protected the football. No, the funny thing about Cleveland's offense in this game was actually the play of Kellen Winslow Jr. Look, I can look at a stat line and tell you he had a big night. Here's the thing, though: Winslow killed a second half drive with a blatant offensive pass interference penalty. He killed another second half drive by fumbling a ball. Then he killed a potential game-winning drive by letting a catchable ball shoot right between his hands. It's rare as hell that a receiver manages to cancel out 10 catches, 111 yards, and 2 scores by shooting his team in the foot multiple times. Winslow pulled it off.

Still, Cleveland would have won the game if anybody on their defense could cover, catch, or tackle for shit. And it's a shame, because Cleveland's defense looked a lot better this season until Thursday night. And you've got to figure now the only thing keeping Romeo Crennel in Cleveland is his young quarterback, which makes the benching of Derek Anderson in a short week about the smartest move Crennel has made in an otherwise embarrassing failure of a stint with the team. Think about it: if Cleveland loses this game like this with Anderson on the field and Quinn on the sidelines, why wouldn't the Browns dump Crennel in what is mighty close to a bye week after this game? But the fact that they just got a positive performance from the kid probably keeps Crennel around through the end of the season, right?

Right?

Atlanta over New Orleans, 34-20
My Pick: Atlanta over New Orleans, 29-28
Well, say this for New Orleans: they were pretty decisive about ending their season early. Last season, the Saints might have pulled this one off or made it really close, then lingered for a bit. Now, at least, we know where they stand: they're OUT. DONE.

As for Atlanta, I'm honestly afraid of this team at home. Matt Ryan's quarterback rating at home this season is over 120. The Falcons score an average of 32 points a game in Atlanta. Halfway through the season, they're a legitimately scary home team, and they've got two more consecutive road games after this one. There's every chance . . . every chance the Falcons will be 8-3 headed into a week 13 trip to San Diego. Holy shit, I can't believe I just typed that.

Atlanta's front four was all over Drew Brees Sunday afternoon. Brees might be one accurate sumbitch when he's in rhythm, but under pressure, he plays like a turd. Forget the 422 meaningless yards and the 2 touchdowns, one of which was a desperation heave in the final seconds; Brees was garbage, completing barely over 50% of his nearly 60 pass attempts. His three picks were ugly. He was under seige, and he folded. Matt Ryan, on the other hand, completed 16 of 23 attempts for about 250 yards and 2 scores. He didn't turn the ball over, he spread his passes around, and frankly, he looked like the veteran of the two.

Where do the Saints go from here? It bums me out that they have the Chiefs in Kansas City up next. The Chiefs are determined to lose every game left on their schedule, which means the Saints'll probably roll 'em pretty good. Then we'll have to pretend to take New Orleans seriously for another week. I don't have the energy for that. I can't root for the Chiefs, but I don't any longer think I can root for the Saints, not until their games are totally meaningless. We're almost there, but not yet.

Tennessee over Chicago, 21-14
My Pick: Chicago over Tennessee, 17-16
Well, I was wrong, but it turns out I don't feel so stupid about it. Chicago did a hell of a job bottling up Tennessee's ground game. They didn't count on Kerry Collins stepping up and putting the Titans on his shoulders, but sometimes you pick your poison and live with the consequences. Pretty much every opponent this season is going to try to make Kerry Collins beat them. How many times will he be able to deliver? Well, at least once.

Tennessee still managed to dominate time of possession, with a 7 minute advantage despite only 21 rushing yards. You know you're a tough-ass football team when you can rush for only 21 yards and have 8 penalties on the road and still win time of possession and your ninth consecutive regular season game. The two most impressive things about this Titans team, in my opinion, are the way they pass-protect and their stinginess with the football. They just don't turn the ball over ever. It's remarkable.

Chicago didn't really do anything wrong to lose this game. They just ran up against a superior team. In this case, I really think it's that simple. They turned the ball over one time, had only 3 penalties, outrushed their opponent by a significant margin, and played pretty effing great defense. I suppose this game came down to three things: 1. Chicago only converted 3 of 14 third down opportunities. It's hard to win games when you can't sustain drives, and Chicago struggled mightily to make the key plays that keep an offense on the field. 2. That one turnover? Yeah, a bad ball from Rex Grossman inside his own territory that gave Tennessee possession at the 25 yard line. Chicago had the lead at the time, but not for long. 3. Tennessee made the big special teams play of the day, a blocked fourth quarter field goal.

Sometimes, that's how it goes. The Titans are as solid and well-coached as any team in football, they'll make those kinds of plays. You've gotta love this team.

Jacksonville over Detroit, 38-14
My Pick: Jacksonville over Detroit, 24-20
I spent a few minutes clicking through stats, replays, summaries, whatever I could find to try to muster up the energy to bang out a recap of this one, but you know what? I don't care about it at all. Detroit sucks. Jacksonville sucks, but they still know what to do against roadkill. That's it! I don't want to get bogged down in a recap of this game, otherwise I'll be too depressed to give adequate thought to everything after it. That's it!

Baltimore over Houston, 41-13
My Pick: Houston over Baltimore, 20-16
It would be easy to roll this whole thing up, hang it around Sage Rosenfels' neck, and call it a day.

So we're going to do that very thing!

Remember how, in my pick of this game, I mentioned that Sage Rosenfels isn't such a steep drop-off from Matt Schaub, that he might make some mistakes, but ultimately he can run the Houston offense successfully? Okay, forget all that. Sage Rosenfels is a friggin' turd. He played like hammered dog-shit out there. Of course, Baltimore's defense is one hell of an obstacle, but damn. Those two throws that turned into picks by Ray Lewis were about as piss-poor as your likely to see at any level of football ever. Who the hell was he throwing to? The Haloti Ngata pick . . . well, Ngata is a monster and he made an incredible play, but still, Rosenfels hit him in the hands. Chris McAlister walked right into a pick. Rosenfels was turrible. Turr-i-bull.

Joe Flacco, on the other hand, did his own little Matt Ryan impression out there. He was friggin' stellar. And again, this guy throws a beautiful, beautiful deep ball. In fact, from the TV angle, Flacco looks as comfortable and athletic as any quarterback in football when he takes a deep drop. I'm no NFL scout, but to me Flacco's whole drop-release motion is about as fluid as any I've seen, and he's got a cannon. Right now, Baltimore's only asking him to take care of the ball and hit the occasional bomb off playaction, but someday down the line, Flacco might be one prolific passer.

He still looks like an ostrich.

But I'm thinking about this now, and I'm saying to myself, "Baltimore's defense is quite nearly as ferocious as Pittsburgh's. Baltimore's offensive line is superior. Baltimore's backfield is healthier. Pittsburgh might have the better receiving corps, but right now (only), Flacco is doing a better job of playing within the mold of quarterback on a run-first offense with a strong defense." All of a sudden, I'm convinced Baltimore is a better overall football team than Pittsburgh. If Flacco plays like this (15 of 23 for 185 and 2 scores, 111 straight pass attempts without a turnover) the rest of the way, Baltimore is the better team. Now, he's a rookie, and he's bound to have some rookie outings the rest of the way, but he's shown the ability to protect the ball, hit some big plays, and keep his team in the game, and frankly, Ben Roethlisberger has been a turnover machine.

I'm just saying. Keep an eye on it. Pittsburgh is not so invincible. Baltimore could win the North.

Miami over Seattle, 21-19
My Pick: Miami ove rSeattle, 21-13
I made a big stink over the 2-point spread, and look at this shit. 2 friggin' points. If I were a betting man, I'd have almost been screwed. Almost.

So this was the best possible effort from Seattle. They traveled as far as possible to play a fairly warm AFC team still in the hunt, and they came within 2 points in a 1pm East Coast game. That moral victory might be as close as they come to the word "victory" the whole rest of the season.

As for Miami, hey, a win is a win. Ricky Williams had himself a nice game. The Wildcat was on fiyah(!) again today, which was nice to see. Miami's on a nice little run here, and watch out for those Dolphins: they've got two more consecutive home games coming up, and they've got seven straight possible wins left on their schedule. Oakland, New England at home, St. Louis, the Bills in Buffalo (not as tough as we thought), San Francisco at home, Kansas City, and then a week 17 match-up with the Jets in New Jersey that could be for a playoff spot. Miami could win anywhere from 4 to 7 of those games. 9-7 would be a disappointment for this Dolphins team. What an unbelievable story they've been.

Can you believe this shit? Already in this post I've talked about Atlanta heading into week 13 at 8-3, Baltimore winning the AFC South, and Miami being a disappointment at 9-7. Just for the record, those three teams finished a combined 10-38 last season. You could say this has been a strange season.

Minnesota over Green Bay, 28-27
My Pick: Green Bay over Minnesota, 27-17
Something just hit me about this game: no matter who won, it would be impossible to say either team earned it. This was about as frustrating a football game as you're likely to ever see.

Minnesota, for crying out loud, these fucks can't stay out of their own way. Gus Frerotte was fucking terrible. He and Sage Rosenfels should get together and buy each other a few drinks. What an incredibly terrible performance by a veteran quarterback. And consider this two-minute sequence from the third quarter: Minnesota takes over possession at their 45 yard line leading 21-10 with about 5:30 left on the clock. Gus Frerotte drops back and fires a short pass directly into the arms of a Green Bay defender, who races through and around the Vikings for a 59-yard score. Minnesota gets the ball back 14 seconds later, loses 18 yards in 2 plays, punts on fourth and eight, and Green Bay's Will Blackmon returns it 65 yards for another score. Green Bay goes into the fourth quarter leading 24-21.

Minnesota is just an awful, awful football team. In an absolute must-win division home game, the Vikings committed 7 penalties, turned the ball over 3 times, and gave up their NFL record sixth special teams touchdown of the season. How in the hell did they win this game?

His name is Adrian Peterson, and when we make a point of mentioning the possibility of him going nuts against any given opponent, this is exactly what we're talking about. On the decisive drive of the game, the Vikings ran the following plays: Adrian Peterson run left for 4 yards. Adrian Peterson run left for 5 yards. Frerotte pass to Wade for 5 yards. Adrian Peterson run left for 2 yards. Pass to Adrian Peterson for 16 yards. Pass to Adrian Peterson for 8 yards. Adrian Peterson run right for 29 yards, touchdown. That score decided the game. One player on Minnesota's offense had their head screwed on correctly on Sunday, and they're thanking their lucky stars it also happened to be their best player, the pissed-off rhinoceros wearing number 28. For 33 touches and 225 total yards, this kid piled his team's whole season on his back and carried it around. On the winning scoring drive, the Vikings called his number on 6 of 7 plays.

As for Green Bay, I guess they're the one middling sub-.5oo team I'll refuse to write off for another week. What the fuck. Aaron Rodgers was bad, but he was under an insane amount of pressure in the pocket. Minnesota's defense was pretty fucking dialed in, come to think of it. Green Bay had nothing in the following departments: slowing down Minnesota's ground game, and converting anything on offense. Green Bay's defense just couldn't get off the field, and they ended up facing down Adrian Peterson in Minnesota for 36 minutes. There might be two or three defenses in football that could contain Peterson for 36 minutes, and the Packers don't have one of them.

Adrian Peterson single-handedly kept this game from being a total farce. The total points might trick you into thinking this was a good game. It had it's moments, but there was only one player on either team worth watching. The rest was total garbage.

New England over Buffalo, 20-10
My Pick: New England over Buffalo, 23-17
I wish I had more to say about this. I feel like I should write an extended eulogy for the 2008 Buffalo Bills, but I've got nothing. New England was clearly the better team, and what was truly appalling was the lack of enthusiasm or energy from Buffalo. They came out flat, sleep-walked through the better part of this game, and got drilled. Now they're 0-3 in the AFC East, 5-4 overall, losers of 4 of 5, and all but out of the running for the playoffs. Record-wise, they might still be in it, but how in the hell do you recover from this kind of collapse?

Why go on? You know what happened. But do you care? Nope, neither do I.

New York Jets over St. Louis, 47-3
My Pick: New York Jets over St. Louis, 29-20
Ouch. What an embarrassment.

And other than that, I don't care at all about this game.

Carolina over Oakland, 17-6
My Pick: Carolina over Oakland, 35-6
I guess you get to play that poorly on the road and win, so long as you do it in Oakland. Holy hell. I had a hard time figuring out which team was which out there. I'm not sure Jake Delhomme should be allowed to collect a paycheck this week after that stink-bomb.

7 of 27? I mean, what the fuck happened out there? Was he throwing with his left arm or something? 7 of 27? 4 picks? Those are Horacio Grey numbers! The headline of this recap on NFL.com says "Panthers get road win vs. Raiders". Has the word "get" every implied anything as foul or ill-gotten as this win? I'll never look at the word "get" the same after this. If I'm Andrew Walter, I'm sending a case of something expensive to Jake Delhomme this week. Who even remembers how bad Walter played after watching Delhomme stumble out there?

Remember that scene in Rookie of the Year, the one near the beginning where the idiot main character fucks up his little league game by committing a series of errors on a ball hit to center field before accidentally throwing it over the outfield wall? That was Jake Delhomme. Was his helmet actually on backwards? I mean, I know we use that saying all the time when guys play like dogshit, but now I'm really wondering! 7 of 27? I'd like to make a joke about somebody out of left field being able to outperform Delhomme, but I'm struggling to think of anybody I know who actually couldn't complete better than 7 of 27 throws against Oakland's defense. Jesus, is DeAngelo Hall really that bad? Take him out of Oakland's defense, and all of a sudden otherwise competent quarterbacks complete only 7 of 27 pass attempts. If that's the case, I'm driving out to Ashburn today with a sledgehammer. No way Hall takes the field for the Redskins this season. No way.

Man, what a friggin' dog this game was. Nobody deserved to watch this crap. Oakland residents are luckier than a mother this game was blacked out in the local market.

Indianapolis over Pittsburgh, 24-20
My Pick: Pittsburgh over Indianapolis, 23-20
I was almost exactly right about the final score, except the teams were backwards, which means I was almost exactly wrong.

Indy, man, for all the shit that's gone wrong for them in 2008, they sure have had some incredible luck in a few of their wins. How about a tipped ball that finds Reggie Wayne for a 65 yard score? I mean, I hate to piss all over their parade here, but they seriously lucked into another win. They played poorly on offense from start to finish, hit a couple of timely plays, got incredibly lucky on a few others, and somehow managed to sneak off with a win. Good for them, I suppose.

As for Pittsburgh, I imagine there are a lot of folks wondering why Byron Leftwich didn't play Sunday afternoon. I can't be the only one. Roethlisberger didn't look right. I'll give him this: he seemed to have picked up on Leftwich's success in completing short passes and taking pressure off the offensive line, but his full-tilt tendency reared its ugly head in a few bad, bad moments. That end-of-the-first-half interception was a friggin' disaster, it let Indianapolis off the mat and the ensuing touchdown gave the Colts all the momentum headed into halftime. Twice in the game Ben forced balls in his own territory, and the Colts turned both interceptions into touchdowns. I'm not saying Ben Roethlisberger is killing the Steelers, but I am typing it. Ben Roethlisberger is killing the Steelers.

And though Peyton Manning wasn't great, he didn't turn the ball over and he found the endzone. When his defense gave him a short field, he took advantage. That was a gutsy road win for the Colts. They get to linger for another week, and if you take the group of wild-card contenders right now, you've got to like Indy's chances. Down the stretch, I'd feel more comfortable with my money on them than on Brett Favre's Jets, the plummeting Bills, the upstart Dolphins, or the rookie-led Ravens. There's a good chance the Colts will not make the playoffs, but among the teams competing with them, they look like one of the safer picks because of their pedigree and experience.

San Diego over Kansas City, 20-19
My Pick: San Diego over Kansas City, 31-20
I sat in a booth at Thai Towne for a good 5 minutes with absolutely nothing in the world to say about anything. It could have even been longer; it's possible I blacked out for a period. I'm still not sure I know exactly what to say about what happened in San Diego Sunday night. Even thinking about it makes me feel nauseated.

It's not supposed to be like this. Coaches can't aggressively torpedo their teams like this and keep their jobs. And to be sure we're on the same page here, I should say I have rarely seen a coach cost his team a game the way Herm Edwards did on Sunday. I've said so much about the guy already, I'm pretty much out. But where in the past Herm was just a terrible gameday coach and an embarrassment, this time he's actually crossed the line into actively working for the opposition to hurt his own team. What he did on Sunday should be called a crime.

The first two-point conversion attempt was an accident. Kansas City failed to execute a simple extra point kick and wound up screwed. The second one was just an incredibly fucking retarded call by Edwards. Jesus Christ. I shouldn't even have to explain this. On the road, with a chance to deliver a death blow to a struggling Chargers team, playing them remarkably close throughout, struggling from behind late, scoring a miracle touchdown. Kick the goddamn extra point, take the momentum, put 'em away in overtime, for crying out loud. The Chiefs are a fucking 1-win team! They had a victory in their grasp! Anything can happen in overtime! Give yourself a goddamn chance! This isn't like Mike Shanahan rolling the dice in week 2 after a gift from the referees. The season was young, Shanahan was looking for a statement, and he has a very talented core of offensive players to work with. There's reason to trust his players in that scenario: they'd been lighting up San Diego's defense all night, and he had a tried-and-true play in his hip pocket for that exact scenario. Kansas City . . . oh fuck it. It was a retarded call by a horrifyingly bad coach, a guy who deserves to be fired so bad, and not just from this job, but from a cannon into the sun. There's guts and then there's stupidity: if you watched any portion of this game, you knew there was a 0.0% chance the Chiefs would convert that 2-pointer. The only person in America who didn't seem to know that in advance was Herm Edwards.

The thing is, I generally love the 2-point call, down one late in a game. I love a coach going for the win. I can't fully explain why I felt overwhelmingly differently about this call when cameras showed Herm holding up 2 fingers after Tony Gonzalez made his miracle touchdown catch. This didn't feel like going for the win, it felt like going for the loss. There was no way in hell the Chiefs were going to get the conversion, from the moment Herm raised two fingers. They'd stolen momentum by scoring the late touchdown, but it was a miracle catch. Watch it again.

I fucking hate the Chiefs, I hate the Chargers, I hate the AFC West. I almost hate the NFL for being affiliated with these assholes.

New York Giants over Philadelphia, 36-31
My Pick: New York Giants over Philadelphia, 24-21
Time of possession, folks. 40 minutes of possession for the Giants, in Philadelphia. In the wise words of John McCain, "that, my friends, is domination."

And really, what a game! This game had intrigue from all angles. Brandon Jacobs took it upon himself to make it a lot more interesting by fumbling the ball on an absurd end-of-run hurdle attempt, and then put the ball on the turf a second time, late in the game, at the goalline, only a millisecond or so after crossing into the endzone. I love this guy, he's a monster, but he needs to secure the damn ball a little better. Then Eli did his part by tossing the ball mere milliseconds before crossing the line of scrimmage, leading to frustrating minutes of confusion about the rule regarding how much of a quarterback must be at or behind the line of scrimmage when the ball is released. So the Giants did their part. They dominated the game, but in the interests of entertaining primetime television, they really went above and beyond in providing an interesting game.

The Eagles, hey, they're entertainers too! How about Donovan McNabb, folks, is this guy something or what? Why not take a late delay of game penalty, that'll spice things up!

Okay, seriously, this was a hell of a game. The Eagles, despite having the ball for only 20 minutes of game time, had a chance down the stretch. Brian Westbrook might not have had a great game (or really, any game at all), but it's hard to criticize Andy Reid for putting the ball in the hands of his All-World tailback on the clinching 4th and 1 play. It didn't work, so he'll eat shit for it, and the Eagles have had major troubles converting short-yardage chances all season, but again, Westbrook is one of the best tailbacks in football, and he only needed a yard.

One thing must be said of both teams: they went after it. On Philadelphia's final meaningful defensive play of the night, Brian Dawkins obliterated Derrick Ward in the backfield and caused a fumble. On New York's final meaningful defensive play of the night, Danny Clark, Antonio Pierce, and Chase Blackburn charged upfield like it was the first play of the game, blew up Philly's blocking in the backfield, and stuffed Brian Westbrook a yard and a half short of the first down marker. New York chewed Philly's defense to bits, especially upfront, churning out 220+ rushing yards and only allowing a single sack on the night, and the Giants dominated time of possession and won the game because of it, but both teams came to play and neither team let up for a minute. Even the aforementioned Donovan McNabb scrambled for a key first down deep in New York territory late in the game and then fired a beautiful ball on the go to Kevin Curtis on fourth down.

So both teams played well. It must be said, then, once and for all, that the Giants are much better than the Eagles. Both teams played well, both as close to full strength as can be expected 10 weeks into an NFL season, in Philadelphia, but New York still doubled 'em up in rushing yards and time of possession and still won the game. In fact, it really shouldn't have been as close as the final score.

They don't get any easier for either team from here on, either. New York has a red-hot Ravens team up next, then they go to Arizona, then to Washington. Those are three tough wins, and if the Giants drop two of them, they could be right back in the thick of the NFC East. The Eagles are facing an uphill battle, and not just for the division any longer. With Carolina, Tampa, and Atlanta all above them in the NFC, not to mention Washington today and potentially Dallas down the stretch, they need another run here. They can forget about the division, of course, but they're pretty clearly talented enough to be a playoff team. They just put three straight wins together before Sunday night, they need to find a way to get back on the horse and do it again.

Arizona over San Francisco, 29-24
My Pick: Arizona over San Francisco, 34-13
Mike Singletary's influence over San Francisco's overall effort and their offensive gameplan was significant, and the 49ers played about as well as they have all season. Arizona is not an easy place to play for away teams, but the 49ers were in good position to win this game down the stretch.

But here's the thing: San Francisco turned the ball over 3 times, committed 10 penalties, and seemed to be clueless in key situations regarding clock management and playcalling. Singletary is a new head coach, and sometimes clock management can be tricky for new coaches who don't spend a lot of time playing Madden in the off-season. The 49ers ran the ball well and played pretty solid defense, on the one hand. On the other hand, they ran the ball to Michael Robinson from the 2 yard line with 4 seconds on the clock and lost 25 of the final 45 seconds on the clock trying to get the right personnel on the field for a quarterback spike. Ultimately, those two plays were the difference between a fantastic division road win and a gut-wrenching, demoralizing loss. I think Singletary will probably find his way, and I think this game will be remembered more for the positive ways Singletary influenced the gameplay of the 49ers than the way his team struggled to put their helmets on correctly down the stretch. That probably won't make it any easier for San Francisco's players this week.

As for Arizona, boy, that shiny new running game they unveiled last Sunday sure disappeared in a hurry in week 10, didn't it? It's a good thing A) Kurt Warner was pretty damn close to perfect passing the ball, B) Frank Gore was lightly grazed while stumbling to the turf inside the five yard line with less than a minute left, and C) Arizona's defense came up with a huge push on that ill-fated Michael Robinson plunge on the final play. Arizona escaped with a victory Monday night. It was an entertaining, illuminating game, and Arizona barely escaped with their reputation intact.

And now, some rankings:

Contenders

1. New York Giants (2)
That's right. They friggin' owned the Eagles in Philadelphia Sunday night. You can't tell me they aren't better than Tennessee. If you can pull the "Tennessee is undefeated" card, I can pull the "the Giants are Super Bowl Champs" card. So there.

2. Tennessee Titans (1)
The didn't do anything to lose the top spot, except maybe look like garbage in their running game. New York jumped up and took it from 'em.

Everyone Else

3. Carolina Panthers (3)
Played about as poorly on offense as you can, but still found a way. They could have dropped, but nobody jumped up high enough to take this spot.

4. New England Patriots (6)
Flattening the Bills and jumping to the front of the AFC's only deep division is enough to bump you into the top 5 in my book.

5. Washinton Redskins (5)
Didn't play, didn't move.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (4)
Dropped a home game to the Colts behind an ugly game from a clearly banged up Ben Roethlisberger.

7. Atlanta Falcons (8)
That was some ass-whupping they laid on the Saints in Atlanta on Sunday. This is a serious playoff contender.

8. Philadelphia Eagles (7)
They had a chance down the stretch against the Giants in Philly, but the tale of that game is told in the numbers: 20 minutes of offense and virtually no running game did them in.

9. Baltimore Ravens (10)
I'd bump them up higher, but over who? They stomped the shit out of Houston on Sunday, and I think they're still improving.

10. Chicago Bears (9)
The Bears put up a fight against the Titans, but they didn't have much going offensively and didn't have an answer for Kerry Collins, of all people.

11. Arizona Cardinals (11)
That was their diciest home performance of the season, and they very nearly tossed out all the good will they'd generated through the first half of the season. Still, a division win is a division win.

12. Green Bay Packers (12)
Yes, they lost, but they played the Vikings very close in Minnesota and nobody behind them jumped up at all.

13. Miami Dolphins (17)
It was a narrow home win over a lousy Seattle team, but everyone around them took a dive and they look like playoff contenders.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14)
Didn't play, didn't move.

15. Indianapolis Colts (18)
Hey, any time you go into Pittsburgh and come out with a win, you've done something impressive.

16. New York Jets (19)
Absolutely throttled the hapless Rams in one of the ugliest, most brutal violations ever committed to film.

17. Minnesota Vikings (20)
It wasn't pretty, but the crucial division win put them above .500 and kept hope alive for a playoff run.

The Dregs

18. Buffalo Bills (13)
I could move them lower, even. 3 straight losses, all in the AFC East, and it's adios, Bills.

19. Houston Texans (15)
Just looked like poached rat crap in a humiliating blowout at home. Sage Rosenfels is quickly becoming either an adjective or a verb, or maybe both.

20. New Orleans Saints (16)
Put up zero fight in their most important game of the season. They're totally done.

21. Denver Broncos (21)
That win did nothing to convince me they're anything but a bunch of clowns.

22. Jacksonville Jaguars (22)
Meh. Killing the Lions is hardly an accomplishment.

23. San Diego Chargers (23)
And we'd all like to thank the goddamn Kansas City Chiefs for letting this atrocity hang around for another week.

24. Cleveland Browns (24)
Brady Quinn was a nice improvement. Too bad the rest of the team is crap, and now they're accusing each other of quitting. Nice.

25. Kansas City Chiefs (25)
Played well enough to win, coached poorly enough to lose.

26. Dallas Cowboys (26)
Is this excessively low? Probably. But after putting them here last week, I can't really move them if they didn't play, can I?

27. San Francisco 49ers (29)
Played almost well enough to win in a very hostile environment. That's worth something.

28. Seattle Seahawks (28)
I'll give them a little credit for traveling all that way for a 1pm game against a good team and still mustering up a competitive effort.

29. St. Louis Rams (27)
Wow. That was just awful.

30. Cincinnati Bengals (30)
Didn't play, right? Or did they? At any rate, they didn't move, apparently.

101. Detroit Lions (31)
So incredibly bad. The odds of them going winless in 2008 are getting very strong.

201. Oakland Raiders (32)
Lost by 11 points to a team whose quarterback actually played with his helmet on backwards, at home, and the only thing surprising about it was that they only lost by 11.

Week 11 picks should be up tomorrow afternoon. Peace!

NFL Stuff

2008-11-07T12:21:00.000-08:00

A few NFL items:

1. Jack Del Rio is losing his grip in Jacksonville. The wheels are off.

First, the Jaguars are a big disappointment this season. Even before they went on their bye week, they were a huge disappointment. Then, coming out of the bye week, they got dumped at home by the Browns before losing on the road to the winless Bengals. Basically, they're out of playoff contention altogether. So they're a huge disappointment.

Now this shit: Del Rio thought it would be a good idea to hold a team meeting with his players, insist upon their silence, and then call out individual players in front of their teammates and subject them to criticism without an opportunity to defend or explain themselves. Somewhere along the way, he ripped into perhaps the best player left on his defense, veteran Mike Peterson, about showboating after a sack late in a losing effort. Peterson defended himself, it turned into a shouting match, Del Rio kicked him out of the meeting and then banned him from practice for two days.

First of all, as a practice of leadership, I don't think it's ever a good idea to insist upon certain types of behavior from those interacting with you. Like, for instance, telling someone they're not allowed to respond to something you say to them. It's one thing to make such a demand of your children. "Stand there, shut up, and listen to what I have to say." Generally speaking, it's not ideal, and if you're making that statement, even to your kids, it means they did something wrong, which in a roundabout way means something else you tried to get through to them didn't quite make it.

But we're not talking about kids, here. We're talking about grown men, and in Peterson's case, a veteran, a team captain, a stand-up, hardworking guy who has probably earned the right to not be treated like a child in front of his teammates.

And another thing: I like accountability, but efforts towards accountability are ultimately undermined if the messenger lacks credibility. Now, I'm not saying Del Rio lacks credibility in Jacksonville's locker-room, but I know there isn't a person in Jacksonville's football organization who can be absolved of responsibility for the Jaguars sucking, especially not Del Rio. The idea of him standing in front of a room of guys and specifically calling out individuals for their role in another loss is . . . well, unappetizing, for one thing. I'd have a hard time keeping my mouth shut. Did he call himself out for allowing the offense to get so far away from establishing the run this season? I'd guess not. I'd guess this was a big, fat, disgusting case of Jack Del Rio blaming his players for the state of the team, embarrassing them, making them scapegoats, and I'd bet Mike Peterson was grossed out long before Del Rio called his name.

And the thing is, even if Peterson weren't a veteran and a team leader, it's never, never a good sign when a coach and player have a heated exchange in a formal meeting. Generally speaking, it means a coach has lost the locker-room. Frankly, I'm surprised he had it this long.

2. The NFL is getting way, way, way carried away with the disciplinary action for hits on quarterbacks. This Justin Tuck fine is ridiculous. Someone please explain to me what he did wrong on this hit on Brooks Bollinger. Seriously, this shit is getting out of hand. What the hell are defensive players supposed to do? The only way to not put that hit on Bollinger would be to go out of your way to avoid actually hitting him at all. I fucking hate this kind of thing. Why don't they just put red jerseys on quarterbacks and just disallow contact?

Look, I hate injuries to franchise quarterbacks as much as anybody. I'm not interested in NFL seasons going by with a third of the league's quarterbacks on the shelf any given week. But this kind of hit, the kind Tuck put on Bollinger, is not at all the kind of hit that generally leads to injury. It was a clean hit: his helmet made contact well below Bollinger's head, he wrapped up, drove him backwards, and then seemed to let go of him right before they landed. I'd like to hear from the NFL what they'd have a defensive lineman do differently if he's running in on a quarterback with a chance to tackle him before he gets rid of the ball. Push him over? Grab him around the waist?

I'm getting disgusted even thinking about this.

3. I love, love, love, love, love, love, LOVE the acquisition of DeAngelo Hall in Washington. I do. I need to get out in front of the local media on this one. I love this move.

First of all, it doesn't cost Washington much at all. They're paying a prorated portion of his $1 million salary for the rest of the season. Second of all, this solves the problem of the Redskins having frequent injuries in the secondary. Third, Hall has some ability. Mostly, though, I like this move because Hall is from this area, played college ball at Virginia Tech, and is going to a veteran team with high expectations, a strong work ethic, and a lot of very serious veteran leadership on his side of the ball. Hall has been a bad guy in his time in the NFL, in that he's got a big mouth and tends to be a me! me! me! sort of personality. Well, there's just no room for that kind of crap on this team. He's got 7 regular season games to try to prove he can fit in and be a team guy on a veteran team. He knows it. If he plays the part, he could land himself another decent contract after the season. If not, hey, it's just seven games, they can deactivate his ass and send him home.

And it keeps him from going to another NFC contender, where he'll be faced with roughly the same equation: shape up, fly straight, work hard, try to rebuild the reputation, earn a contract in the off-season. Either way, any good, well-coached team would get something positive from him for 7 or 8 games. The only possible better case scenario would have had him landing in Dallas like a base into a vat of acid, killing everyone involved in a massive explosion of gore.

I think Carlos Rogers is a few picks away from being a Pro Bowl corner. Shawn Springs is as good a cover corner as there is in the NFC when healthy. Fred Smoot is a chemistry guy, a fan favorite, and a capable nickel corner. Leigh Torrance has turned into a fine special teamer and a regular contributor on defense. The Redskins are deep in the secondary. But injuries have been a problem, and you just can't have too many capable cover guys with good hands available. If nothing else, he can step in and challenge somebody in practice. I love this move. Love it. It costs the Skins almost nothing, and they made the decision the right way, involving veterans like London Fletcher in the discussion. Great great great.

That's all, y'all.

Week 10 Picks

2008-11-05T09:30:00.000-08:00

I don't know how they do it, but week in and week out, the NFL makes it hard for me to just pick a heavy slate of home teams and be done with it. Again, in week 10, there's a handful of road teams who I just like better and just are better than their opponent. I managed to sneak by with a 9-5 record in week 9, but this heavy reliance on road teams is giving me heartburn.

Here we go!

Denver @ Cleveland
The Line: Cleveland by 3
Cleveland's not much of a team. Denver's definitely not much of a team. Denver doesn't travel well and they have no defense. Cleveland has a new quarterback making his first NFL start. Toss up?

Bold prediction here: Brady Quinn is going to look awesome on Sunday. Not just because Denver's defense is atrocious, either. He's playing at home in his home state, he's a sharp kid, he's got a lot of talent around him, and the Browns aren't going to put him in a lot of bad situations. Frankly, I think he's going to be an improvement over Derek Anderson for the rest of the season.

As for Denver, I don't know what to make of this team or it's chances to win. I just know I can't pick them on the road. At this point, I'd be reluctant to pick them at home. They burned me in week 9 when my confidence on them was already critically low. Would it shock me to death if they pulled off a win here, looked great on offense, put up some big numbers? Not really. I just can't pick it that way.
Browns over Broncos, 22-17

New Orleans @ Atlanta
The Line: Atlanta by 1
As John McCain might say, "This, my friends, is a great match-up".

New Orleans has had two weeks to prepare for this, they deserved it, and I think they needed it. They deserved it because they had the London "home game" atrocity. They needed it because Atlanta is hotter than hell right now and a monster at home. I'm having a very hard time imagining how this game will go down.

This much is certain: New Orleans is desperately in need of this victory. They've done a lot of farting around at the bottom of the NFC South and the middle of the NFC, but they're supposed to make a move here. They've dropped two killer division games already, they can't at all afford to drop a game below .500 by losing their third straight division game. Not this late in the season. You could call it a desperation game for the Saints. I expect them to come out blazing.

And here's a good test for the young Falcons. They're about to get a tough challenge at home by a veteran division foe. That's a hurdle. They've also got an opportunity to dig a rusty blade into the belly of a wounded opponent, and that's another hurdle for a wannabe contender. They can either step down on New Orleans' throat or they can let 'em off the mat. I don't know about anybody else, but I'm ready to be done with the Saints in 2008. They're 0-3 on the road, they've got the worst defense by far in their division, and they've pooped away a series of winnable games already this season, to say nothing of the brutal bludgeoning they took from the Panthers in Carolina. Cast 'em out, I say. Here's hoping the Falcons take care of business. Either way, it should be fun. I've gotta say, I'm kinda loving the NFC South this season (except those friggin' Bucs).
Falcons over Saints, 29-28

Tennessee @ Chicago
The Line: Tennessee by 3
Truth be told, I kinda love this match-up. I'm not sure where exactly Chicago is supposed to find any offense, and I'm not exactly sure how they're supposed to avoid turning the ball over, but I'm fascinated to find out.

Just like last week, I'm giving a tough NFC North team a chance against the big bad Titans. Tennessee is so sharp, so professional, so tough, it's hard to imagine a banged up Bears team with Rex Grossman under center holding them off. Still, I have a feeling Chicago had trouble with Detroit because they were looking ahead at this one. I think they're a lot better than we saw in week 9, and I think, if nothing else, they won't lie down for a minute. If we've learned nothing else about Lovie Smith's Chicago Bears in the last few seasons, we've at least learned his teams fight like hell. The good news here is the Titans are almost the exact same team; toughness takes them a long way and what they lack in offensive explosiveness, they make up for with dominating defense and scrappy play-making.

I'm going to go way out on a limb here and take the home dog, even with Rex Grossman under center. There's a high, high probability I'll feel desperately stupid about this pick come Sunday night, but for now, I think the match-up is within maybe 7 points to begin with, and I like Chicago's homefield advantage. I especially like Chicago's homefield advantage in the second of back-to-back home games, this one against the stronger of the two opponents. Chicago's fighting for something this season, maybe even the division, so I expect a hell of a battle.
Bears over Titans, 17-16

Jacksonville @ Detroit
The Line: Jacksonville by 6.5
I'm not sure why Jacksonville, losers of two straight against abysmal AFC South bottom-dwellers, is favored to win by nearly a touchdown in any road game against any team not from Oakland. I mean, Detroit's garbage, but they aren't Oakland. We may be whores, but we ain't horses.

After all, didn't Jacksonville just lose to a winless Bengals team in Cincinnati?

I have a feeling this would be the end of someone's tenure in Jacksonville if the Jaguars were to lose this game. Maybe not Jack Del Rio, but someone. You don't come out of your bye and lose three straight to teams with a combined 2-19 record without putting a noose around somebody's neck. Anybody. Anybody! Maybe that threat alone is enough to push Jacksonville to victory. God knows it won't take much against this friggin' Lions disaster.

On the other hand, Detroit is the last team in the NFL without a win, and they've been better in each of their past three games. Calvin Johnson is a real difference maker. One interesting variable here will be whether or not Detroit turns over the starting quarterback position right away to Daunte Culpepper. On the one hand, Culpepper should absolutely be starting for the Lions, I'm just not sure it should happen this quickly. Culpepper can be turnover prone even at his best, I'm not sure it's a good idea to stick him back there behind that awful offensive line with only a limited understanding of the offense. Detroit has no running game, no defense, and a bad offensive line. You couldn't sell me on the idea of putting a turnover-prone quarterback with less than a full week in the NFL this season under center against just about anybody. Jacksonville's defense may not be what it was, but . . . well . . . they ain't exactly horses either, now are they?

I don't know. It's hard for me to pick Detroit. Jacksonville isn't exactly setting my heart a-flutter, but I have a hard time picking them to lose three straight, too. I guess I'm going with the road team. At least they're favored.
Jaguars over Lions, 24-20

Baltimore @ Houston
The Line: Baltimore by 1
That's an interesting line to me. On neutral territory, I'd pick Houston, even with Sage Rosenfels under center. First of all, Rosenfels isn't much of a step down from Matt Schaub in terms of moving the ball and scoring points. He turns the ball over and made some incredibly stupid, embarrassing plays earlier this season, but he can get the engine going, too. In Baltimore, I'd definitely like the Ravens in a 1 pm game; Houston's doing the dreaded west-to-east, and they're not great away from home. In Houston, however, I don't know, I have a hard time reasoning this one. Baltimore's pass defense isn't terrible, but their secondary (especially the corners) isn't special and Houston's passing attack is formidable. I also like the way Houston plays at home and the home crowd has proven to be pretty enthusiastic. Baltimore by 1? Really?

No, I don't see it that way. I see Flacco under pressure when he passes, I see Houston moving the ball in the air, and I see this one being close enough that the home field advantage ends up providing the edge. Gimme Houston.
Texans over Ravens, 20-16

Seattle @ Miami
The Line: Miami by 2
Again, by 2? Really? Seattle can't actually travel farther than this and still be in the United States, doesn't Vegas realize that? This is a 1pm game, Seattle is literally traveling as far as they possible can to play inside the country, and Miami is only giving 2 points? Seattle gets thumped at home in week 9, Miami dumps the Broncos in Denver, and the following week Seattle is supposed to hang around and make it close a million miles from home? What?! Has the whole world gone crazy?

No, no way Seattle musters up much here. Miami is tough, man, and even if their offense doesn't do much, no fucking way Seattle musters up an attack. Miami's defense is going to make lunch meat out of those groggy sons-of-bitches.
Dolphins over Seahawks, 21-13

Green Bay @ Minnesota
The Line: Minnesota by 2
A big time division match-up here in the North. This is the season for one of these two teams. Minnesota has already played a couple of "this is our season, boys" games already in 2008. Green Bay was within a coin flip of not really needing this to even be a "this is our season" type game, but such is the nature of things.

When these two teams met earlier in the season, in Aaron Rodgers' first game as the starting quarterback, in Green Bay, the Packers squeezed by the Vikings late, ultimately winning by 5. The other thing: Tarvaris Jackson was under center for the Vikings. Now, lately Gus Frerotte hasn't been a whole lot better than what they were getting from Jackson, except that, in typical Frerotte fashion, he's been hitting on a good number of deep balls. That explosive side of Minnesota's offense could be a concern for Green Bay.

And this is the second straight road game for the Packers, never a good sign. Ruh-roh . . .

But, BUT, the Packers are about as healthy as they've been all season, and they put up a pretty impressive defensive performance of their own in week 9 against the Titans. So here's the thing: I think Aaron Rodgers' progression in Green Bay's offense is more significant than Gus Frerotte's play under center for the Vikings. I also think Green Bay is more talented on offense and just as good on defense (when fully healthy). I think the homefield means a lot for Minnesota.

On a neutral site, I'd definitely pick the Packers. By how much? Maybe a touchdown. So how much is the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome worth to the Vikings? Well, whatever it's worth in any other game, it's almost certainly worth more in a division game against the hated Packers. So far, Minnesota has one good home win this season, a 20-10 job over Carolina. Other than that, it was a discouraging 3-point choke job loss to the Colts, a discouraging 2-point bullshit win over the Lions, and a herky-jerky performance in a 7-point win over the Texans. Hmmmmmm . . .

Okay, plus, I want Green Bay to win.

Shoot.

Well, gotta go with my gut. Here's hoping it's my gut!
Packers over Vikings, 27-17

Buffalo @ New England
The Line: New England by 3.5
Two things I'm sure of: 1. the Bills are shitting themselves; 2. the Patriots know it.

This one, too, is the whole season for one of these teams, but in this case, only one. If the Bills lose, they're done. Not because they can't make a season out of it, not because it's impossible for them to struggle back, win the remainder of their division schedule, and take a playoff berth in the sluggish AFC. But I can't expect them to recover from this kind of mid season groin kick. A 4-0 start that became 5-4 with 3 straight division losses, that's hideous. And I do think they'll lose. In fact, at this point, I'll be hugely impressed and very surprised if they do win.

On the other hand, though, it's not exactly like the Patriots have been blowing anybody's hair back. There's virtually nothing to be afraid of on this Patriots roster. Now that their behind the scenes advantages have been neutralized, it couldn't be more plain how few on the field advantages they actually have. Matt Cassel is up and down, the running game is inconsistent at best, and their defense is still old and slow. Buffalo could win this game. But just like the chances of them reversing the direction of their season if they lose, it'll be a long shot for them to go into New England and get a win, even against this Patriots team. I can't pick it that way. I will be rooting for the Bills, I still like the Bills, I just no longer believe in 'em.
Patriots over Bills, 23-17

St. Louis @ New York Jets
The Line: New York Jets by 8
I friggin' hate the Jets. I will be rooting very, very hard for the Rams.

I don't know how they can pull it off. Actually, wait, I know exactly how. They just need to put consistent pressure on Brett Favre and play their secondary as far from the line of scrimmage as possible. Favre gets so frustrated and goes scattershot so badly when teams hit him consistently and take away the big play. He's been trying to self-destruct for weeks now, he badly wants to self-destruct. St. Louis might actually benefit from getting away from home for a week. They took a bad booing at home in week 9.

New York's run defense has been consistently strong all season, so we'll have to see if Steven Jackson can make any headway in there. It'll also be interesting to see if St. Louis can get another big play or two from their younger receivers.

Okay, I'm dragging this out. You don't care about this game, I don't either.
Jets over Rams, 29-20

Carolina @ Oakland
The Line: Carolina by 9
Oakland can't possibly play worse than they played against the Falcons, right? Except, ummm, uh oh, the Panthers are better defensively than the Falcons, they've had two weeks to prepare, and, ummmm, the Raiders can't have even an ounce of confidence in anything they want to do anymore.

Oakland had -2 yards of total offense by halftime against the Falcons. I'm not kidding, here, Oakland could very easily finish this game with negative yardage. I'm picking a huge, huge blowout. Oakland might be the first team ever in any sport to fire two coaches in 10 games.
Panthers over Raiders, 35-6

Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh by 3.5
Those poor Colts, they're in no position to string something together. On the other hand, they did it to themselves, didn't they? They opened the season with a slew of winnable games, and one after another they crapped the opportunities away. Now they need a big upset in Pittsburgh to avoid falling right back to the edge of the abyss. By the by, that 3.5 line is teetering in the middle of a sea-saw right now. If Ben Roethlisberger is healthy, it will move one way. If he can't play, it will move the other. Officially, that line is based on the lack of knowledge about his status.

The Colts are the only team this season that really did anything noteworthy against Baltimore's feisty 3-4. That was in Indianapolis, but it's about the only goddamn hope in hell they have in this one. That and maybe the fact that Pittsburgh just played two tough as shit NFC East opponents and those poor bastards are probably exhausted. By the way, now that I think about it, wasn't that the biggest regular season win in Mike Tomlin's career as a head coach? Last season, the Steelers were doo-doo on the road against tough competition. This season, they dumped two NFC East games. In a must win contest, on the road against a very competent Redskins team, in spite of an injury to their franchise, Super Bowl winning quarterback, they pulled away in the second half and stayed dominant in their division. That was a huge fuckin' win for them!

Hey, anyway, maybe they're drained. It's the only hope for the sad-sack Colts. If they have a run in them at all, it starts here. They got a big ugly home win in week 9, now they're going to the belly of the beast to (hopefully) upset a (hopefully) tired, (hopefully) banged up Steelers team. The chances are thin.
Steelers over Colts, 23-20

Kansas City @ San Diego
The Line: San Diego by 15
Fucking goddamn Chargers. 15 points? You mean to tell me a 3-5 team gets 15 points over a division rival that just played a second straight highly competitive game? Holy crap, what the hell do I know about anything.

Know what? Just for the sheer fuck of it, I'm picking the horrid, horrendous Chiefs (no I'm not). Know why? Because a man has to believe in something, okay (yes, it's called reason)? A man has to take a stand sometimes (no he doesn't), a man has to say "I know what's right, and I'm standing for it" (bullshit).

I'm (not) picking the Chiefs because they're (not) goddamn honest to goodness fighters. They have (probably not) seen this line, and they're (probably not) insulted by it. As (wo)men, it burns them to be underestimated (or estimated at all, for that matter). The Chiefs are ready to make a statement (of surrender), and I'm (not) going to stand there beside them (not in a million years). I've had enough of this shit (there's truth there), and I'm not (not) going to take it anymore!
Ch(argers)iefs over Ch(iefs)argers, 31-20

New York Giants @ Philadelphia
The Line: Philly by . . . .wh-wh-what? Wait, wait, stop everything.

Giants: 7-1. NFL's 5th best Offense and 2nd best Rush Offense. NFL's 3rd best Defense and 2nd against the Pass. Reigning Super Bowl Champions. In 2007, the Giants went 2-0 against the Eagles, held Donovan McNabb to 317 total passing yards, 1 touchdown, 3 fumbles, and sacked him a disgusting 15 times.

Philly: 5-3. Already lost 2 NFC East games, including a home game to Washington. 3 of 5 wins came against NFC West. In 2007, the Giants went 2-0 against the Eagles, held Donovan McNabb to 317 total passing yards, 1 touchdown, 3 fumbles, and sacked him a disgusting 15 times.

Okay, so, let's get back to that line, because clearly something was off there. Now that we've cleared all that up . . .

The Line: New York by . . . . wait . . . you're serious! Ummmm, wow! Am I missing something? Really? You saw the bit about the 15 sacks, right? 15 sacks, man. You know that was in 2 games right? Not 5 games, 2 games. Hmmm. Hey, you're the boss.

The Line: (deep breath) Philly (yes, Philly) by 3

Nope. Giants win! Giants win! Giants win!

Actually, I do give Philly a chance in hell here. They're healthy and explosive, and they could very well turn the tables and sack the holy shit-balls out of Eli Manning. Still, New York's the better team and I'm takin' 'em.
Giants over Eagles, 24-21

San Francisco @ Arizona
The Line: Arizona by 9.5
This should be a one-sided obliteration. I am kinda interested to see what antics we might see from Mike Singletary in this one, though. I'm having two animated sitcom flashbacks here, so hang with me:

Remember the softball championships episode of the Simpsons? Remember when Mr. Burns stupidly took Darryl Strawberry out of the game because he wanted the right/lefty match-up with the game on the line, and he put Homer in instead? He goes through this prolongued explanation of all the potential signals from the third base coach, and Homer totally zones out. Then, later, Homer looks over at Burns on the third base line and Burns is spazzing out, wiggling his hips, jamming his finger up his nose, sticking his tongue out, in an absurd attempt to signal something to Homer in the batters box.

Anyway, this is a wierd stretch, but for some reason, I now picture Mike Singletary this way on the sidelines of 49ers games. He's so desperate to make an impression, he's pulling his pants down, sticking his tongue out, dancing on his toes, pulling ugly faces, only his players are totally zoned and tuning him out. Point is, you save the dramatic shit for after you've built up some credibility in your position. In much the same way that Mr. Burns was ineffectually trying to get complex ideas into Homer's brain after stupidly pulling his best player from the game for questionable reasoning at best, Mike Singletary is trying to get his team to accept a different quarterback and respond to him pulling his pants down after he yanks the only guy on the team who might be remembered for giving a shit in that game. Anyway, I know it was a reach, but it's what came to me.

That, and this:

In Futurama, when Leela gets to play for the New New York Mets as a publicity stunt because she's got one eye and has an uncanny knack for beaning the shit out of opposing batters, her coach benches her because he actually cares about winning a game. When they get to the last inning of the last game and the clown (literally, a clown) playing second base fucks up a routine ground ball by throwing a pie in the face of the first baseman, he needs someone to get the final out. In the end, he throws Leela in there because, even though she's garbage, he's out of other options and clutching at straws. And though Leela pitches better than she's ever pitched before, on her third (yes, third) pitch of the game she gives up the game winning grand slam.

Shaun Hill, you're Leela. Mike Singletary, you're the coach. J. T. O'Sullivan, you're the clown.

Cardinals win! Cardinals win! Cardinals win!
Cardinals over 49ers, 34-13

No Skins this week. I probably won't pay a whole lot of attention, which is a good thing. I could use a week away from football. Though it's been fun, this has been a stressful football season so far.