Let's get right to it, shall we?
Chicago @ Washington
Tough one to call. Look, sooner or later I'll be comfortable picking against the Redskins, but a home game against another team with a losing record? I know it was a short week. Tough.
Redskins over Bears, 28-17
Carolina @ Jacksonville
Of course Jacksonville will win the game. David Carr is now third on Carolina's depth chart at quarterback. He's one season away from being out of the NFL and the biggest draft bust since Heath Shuler. This one's a real cat-fight . . . get it? Jaguars and Panthers! A cat-fight!! BWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Jaguars over Panthers, 27-13
New York Giants @ Philadelphia
Oooooooh, I don't know. This one could go either way. I keep picking the Eagles and paying for it. I keep picking against the Giants and paying for it. After the epic reaming New York's pass-rush gave Philly's offense last time they met, I have a hard time taking the home team. Still, I wouldn't expect Andy Reid to leave anybody on an island the way he did last time with Winston Justice, and the Giants are a little bit thinner in their front seven now that Kee-wan-OO-ka is done for the year. Also, Derrick Ward is done, and the Giants offense hasn't looked hot for a few weeks. Fuck it. Upset Special!!
Eagles over Giants, 34-20
St. Louis @ Cincinnati
If you love football, you have no business watching or caring about this game. Yes, both offenses will likely put up big numbers. That does not a good football game make. Cincinnati hasn't made much of home-field this season, but the Rams can't get or stay healthy and aren't stopping anybody. Screw it, I'll go down this road again and eat shit for it.
Bengals over Rams, 38-31
Tampa Bay @ Houston
When will the magic wear off for the Bucs? They've won consecutive games behind John Doe and quarterback, but I have to believe sooner or later that'll catch up to 'em. Jeff Garcia and Jon Gruden are vehemently denying reports that Garcia's back is in worse shape than reported and he might not play again this season. If he can't go in this one, I think they lose. Right now, I don't think he's gonna go. I won't change the pick later, but if he plays, they have a chance.
Texans over Bucs, 23-17
Miami @ Buffalo
This could be a trap game for Buffalo. I won't pick the Dolphins to win, ever, but they're once again looking at a somewhat winnable game with only a few chances to avoid the dreaded winless season left. After what happened at home against the terrible Jets on Sunday, how can you expect anything better on the road against the .500 Bills? You can't.
Bills over Dolphins, 21-6
Oakland @ Green Bay
Upset alert! Upset alert! Bwooot! Bwooot! Bwooot! Will Favre go? Will he be healthy enough to play well? If he is, will he take care of the ball and return to his form from the first 12 weeks, or will he lay a turd like he did in the first half against the Cowboys? The Raiders are garbage, but they play hard and run the football well. I don't know. I'm picking the Packers, but don't be shocked if their return to earth continues in week 14.
Packers over Raiders, 28-14
Dallas @ Detroit
Cowboys win.
Cowboys over Lions, 45-20
San Diego @ Tennessee
I don't know what to make of this one. Both teams have Jeckyl and Hyde things going on, this game could go a lot of ways. If the Chargers get LT going early and Philip Rivers takes care of the ball, they could win. If Vince is able to move the ball and limit turnovers, the Titans could win. Tennessee is at home and needs the win more, but they're all over the place. Shit balls. Uhhhhhhh . . . three points to the home team.
Titans over Chargers, 17-14
Minnesota @ San Francisco
I'm taking the Vikings. Not because they're a mortal lock, but because no one should ever take the 49ers. If the 49ers win, no one will be able to say why.
Vikings over 49ers, 37-10
Arizona @ Seattle
Against all odds, this might be the game I'm most interested to see on Sunday. I honestly think the Seahawks are the most over-rated team in the NFL, the least deserving of a division title and a playoff spot. I actually think the Cardinals are way, way better. I could see the Cardinals pushing the Seahawks around, beating them up and punishing them. They'll try to run the ball and if they succeed, they'll stick with it. They've got big-time options through the air and an aggressive defense. Seattle, on the other hand, won't try to establish the run, and even if it's working, they won't stick with it. Hasselbeck and his receivers have been mostly fine, but injuries are a concern and they've looked shabby for a few weeks in a row. Upset Special number two, I guess.
Cardinals over Seahawks, 34-20
Cleveland @ New York Jets
The Browns really need this one. They haven't lost a single game all year because of poor effort, or a bad gameplan or bad playcalling. They can win any game in which they don't kill themselves. Plus, the Jets stink.
Browns over Jets, 42-24
Pittsburgh @ New England
Should be a fun one to watch if Pittsburgh is able to have the kind of success against the Pats that the Eagles and Ravens have had. If not, it'll be an absolute bloodbath.
Patriots over Steelers, 35-31
Kansas City @ Denver
Denver ought to win. They've got some offensive pieces and a strong home-field advantage.
Broncos over Chiefs, 20-17
Indianapolis @ Baltimore
Here it is, the matchup between the most professional, least bitchy team in football against perhaps the least professional, most bitchy team in football. Yet another Sunday goes by with Brian Billick and the bitchy, whiny, entitled Ravens complaining about officiating. Gimme the Colts, big.
Colts over Ravens, 24-9
New Orleans @ Atlanta
Who cares? Seriously, I don't care at all about this game.
Saints over Falcons, 30-16
Go Skynards!
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
Four More Weeks! Four More Weeks!
Another 10-6 showing on my picks this weekend, but it was filled with disappointments. The Thursday nighter was a big let-down, other than the subplot of Aaron Rodgers playing pretty fantastic football. The Skins game was an awful shame. The Browns and Broncos disappointed on the road, whereas the Eagles disappointed at home in a game I really wanted them to win. The Bears let the Giants off the mat. There was a lot of exciting football on Sunday and Monday, and overall, it was a good late-season weekend for the NFL.
Now the results:
Cowboys over Packers, 37-27
My Pick: Packers over Cowboys, 27-24
I wrote this during the game on Thursday, we'll call it the first-half diary:
"Part 1: Wow, talk about coming out with your tail between your legs. I never, NEVER thought I would see this in this game. The Packers look totally intimidated and their playcalling is absolutely terrible. They didn't even attempt to stay in their offense for a full quarter! No way . . . absolutely ZERO chance Green Bay wins this game. As much as I think Mike McCarthy is a great head coach, it looks to me like he never thought his team had a chance to win this game and never gave them a chance. There's NO WAY the Packers should be calling flea-flickers, no way they should be running play-action on consecutive plays, no way Brett Favre should be spending this much time under center. Horrid. Horrid, horrible, putrid, wretched garbage.
Part 2: Man, the Packers are SO not up to the task. Dallas is waltzing right through their defense and destroying their offense. I can honestly say I haven't been more disappointed in the performance of an NFL team since Norv Turner was head coach in Washington and I had to watch his sorry-ass Redskins every Sunday. Booooooo on the Packers! Boooooooo!
Part 3: Game over. Aaron Rodgers is entering the game. It's OVER. D-U-N. Rodgers can play as well as he wants to, the Packers will lose this game, period."
Was I right or what? Ok, everyone who saw Rodgers enter the game knew the Packers would go on to lose. No one predicted his stellar play. But the bigger story, in my opinion, was the shameful bed-crapping by Mike McCarthy in this game. What were the Packers doing getting so far away from the offense that had worked for them all season? Nothing frustrates me like a coach giving up on his team before the game even starts. Remember how Avery Johnson decided the Mavs had to go small before the Golden State series? That was Don Nelson, former boss, in his head. He never gave his team the chance to do what they'd done well all season, and they paid the price in historic fashion. That's what happens when you take a team that has thrived all season on spread formations with as many receivers in the game as possible and force them to play two tight-end sets with playaction passes and an emphasis on the ground game. What a shame.
Panthers over 49ers, 31-14
My Pick: Panthers over 49ers, 16-14
I didn't watch the game, and I really don't know what happened. I know Dilfer was terrible, Gore couldn't get loose, and the Niners returned to normalcy. The entire NFL should be rooting for the Niners to win every game from here on so the Patriots won't have a top 5 pick in the upcoming draft.
Colts over Jaguars, 28-25
My Pick: Colts over Jaguars, 21-17
. . . and there goes the AFC South. Congrats, Colts, on a well-deserved and hard-fought division crown. The thing that really stuck with me from this game, oddly, was my disappointment at David Garrard's interception. That never should have happened! He didn't make a bad decision, didn't force a ball, didn't cough it up; he threw a good ball, it was tipped, and the rest is history. Still, you've got to think the Jaguars are not a team any AFC opponent wants to face in the playoffs.
Vikings over Lions, 42-10
My Pick: Vikings over Lions, 28-24
. . . and there go the Lions. Ok, so, they might make the playoffs in the end, but this team is REELING. The injury to Roy Williams is a killer, their defense is crumbling, and the big play has completely disappeared from their offense. They ran the ball FOUR TIMES on Sunday. This has gotten out of hand. The only reason to have Mike Martz calling the shots is to create big plays and lots of points. If the passing attack isn't working, there's no reason to have this guy around. The lop-sided-ness of his offensive approach is out of control, especially for a team with a below-average defense and three, yes THREE talented, capable running backs on their roster. When this team got Kitna, they got a proud, confident signal-caller with the guts to play behind a Martz line, and that's what he's given them. They also got a four-year window, MAX, in which this guy is going to be productive even if he's upright. Kitna hasn't been a big name for long, but he's actually one of the older quarterbacks in the NFL. The pounding this guy has taken this year has probably cut the productive remainder of his career in half at least. I wish I could say "next year, Detroit!" with any confidence, but I honestly see this team taking a step backwards next year unless they can find a way to commit to a reasonable offensive strategy week in and week out. As for the Vikings, lost in all the ADAP talk and Chester Taylor's success is the quiet emergence of Tarvaris Jackson in the last few weeks. His numbers on Sunday, and last Sunday, are actually pretty impressive. If this guy can continue to produce like this into the post-season, they'll be a SUPER tough team to beat, and he'll make Brad Childress look like a friggin' genius.
Chargers over Chiefs, 24-10
My Pick: Chargers over Chiefs, 28-17
. . . and there goes the AFC West, thank God. I'm not jumping on the Chargers bandwagon: there's simply no way they can make any noise in the post-season the way Philip Rivers is playing, and they haven't put together more than two consecutive good weeks all season. Still, I'm thrilled that laughing-stock of an NFL division is finally clearing up. As for the Chiefs, when I think about it, they may have more to do in the off-season than all but maybe one or two teams in the AFC. Do they have the long-term answer at QB? Do they have depth anywhere? Do they have the receivers to compete? Hell no, hell no, hell no.
Jets over Dolphins, 40-13
My Pick: Jets over Dolphins, 17-10
That's how bad the Phins are: the Jets put 40 up on 'em and NOBODY on the Jets had an above average day offensively. Seriously, look at the numbers: Thomas Jones ran for a whopping 3 yards per carry. Kellen Clemens went 15 of 24 for 236 with a TD and a pick. Leon Washington had a nice day, with 68 yards on 10 carries, but still: those aren't big-time numbers. How about rookie John Beck with 6 turnovers? Yipe. I don't know if the Dolphins are feeling much pressure to win a game right now, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say Beck might not be the guy to get them there this season. What's more important, avoiding the dreaded winless season or getting the kid ready for next year? I guess Cam Cameron has answered that one, and I can't say I disagree, really. What does one win do for this team? Not one thing.
Bills over Redskins, 17-16
My Pick: Redskins over Bills, 31-21
Immediately after the game, I was pretty charged up over the second half performance of the Skins, the unbelievable mistake Gibbs made at the end, and the whole situation of losing yet another game in which the Skins seemed to have the upper hand most of the way and took a lead into half-time. On Monday, I watched Sean Taylor's funeral, and you know what? I'm more aware than ever of what these guys have had to go through in the past week. So they lost a football game. So the hell what. I would have really cherished a victory, but what the fuck. The funeral was really something, puts things in perspective.
On the other hand, it might be time for ol' Gibbs to hang 'em up. I love the guy, but I think he's taken this team as far as he can take them in his capacity as head coach. He took a franchise headed in the wrong direction and pointed them the right way, and they've got some good things to build around. I can't imagine how frustrated some of the players must have been after the game on Sunday, having toughed it out during one of the hardest weeks of their professional lives, and then come up short after a pretty horrible error by the coaches right at the end. I'm not saying the time out cost them the game: the Bills' kicker had just nailed the 51-yarder before the first time-out. But they took it from a maybe 60% shot to a 90% shot because the coaches don't know the rules. That's pretty bad.
All that aside, I'm hoping the Skins finish out the season with pride and win a few.
Titans over Texans, 28-20
My Pick: Titans over Texans, 24-17
So the hierarchy of the AFC South is now firmly established. Here's what I know: if Vince Young doesn't continue to take big strides as a passer this off-season, the pecking order will look a bit different next year. The Texans are pretty clearly a team on the rise, whereas the Titans seem to be stuck in fourth gear. It's hard to look at Tennessee's offense and figure out where they're supposed to be getting production from on a consistent basis. If Lendale White is able to stay healthy and productive, and they are able to keep some depth back there, they can run the ball. If their udnerwhelming receiving corps yields a hidden gem, they might be able to put together a passing game. If Vince Young progresses as a passer . . . etc. The Texans, on the other hand, have a polished passer in Matt Schaub and at least one true-blue NFL receiver in Andre Johnson. The Titans need to finish strong to get in the playoffs; I don't see it happening.
Rams over Falcons, 28-16
My Pick: Rams over Falcons, 28-20
Yep. Nailed it. Needed a late 50-yard scamper by Stephen Jackson, but nailed it all the same.
Seahawks over Eagles, 28-24
My Pick: Eagles over Seahawks, 21-17
Hey, it turns out A. J. Feeley isn't the second coming of John Elway after all! Who knew? With the win, the Seahawks have essentially wrapped up the NFC West, another train-wreck of a division. The Jacks have just enough playoff experience and attitude to rip off a post-season run in the weak NFC, but I think they stink.
Cardinals over Browns, 27-21
My Pick: Browns over Cardinals, 35-28
Let this be a lesson to NFL teams, one that started in the Skins/Bucs game last Sunday: early turnovers will KILL you on the road. You don't want to be playing from behind against a playoff hopeful on the road, and just like the Skins last week in Tampa, the quarterback had a few early misfires and the road team couldn't recover. How about that hail-mary at the end? The Browns brass and Kellen Winslow Jr. will be watching that one on slow-motion replay for the next 7 years, calling up Roger Goodell at 3am to talk about a new angle. I don't know, that call could very easily have gone either way, and I have a hard time figuring how the refs didn't think Winslow was pushed out. Fun game, gotta love those Browns.
Raiders over Broncos, 34-20
My Pick: Broncos over Raiders, 24-20
Wh-wh-whaaaaaat?! Inexcusable. What a major letdown for the Broncos, who still had a hope-in-hell of playing for a playoff spot.
Bucs over Saints, 27-23
My Pick: Bucs over Saints, 24-20
What are the chances the 2006 draft class goes down as the most disappointing top 10 in NFL history? Think about it: Mario Williams has been a disappointment; we'll get back to Reggie Bush; Vince Young seems to have taken a step laterally, if not backwards; A. J. Hawk and DaBrickashaw Ferguson have been good, but Vernon Davis has been bad; Matt Leinart hasn't worked out yet. There might be some great players in there, but measured against expectations, Mario Williams, Reggie Bush, and Matt Leinart have all been disappointments and the jury is still out on Vince Young. Those were the big names in the 2006 draft. My reason for bringing this up is this: the Saints aren't getting nearly enough from the runningback position to be a consistently good team. Let's say that comes back to the injury to Deuce McAlister; I'll give you that. But shouldn't a projected first overall draft pick with Hall of Fame expecations be expected to produce big number regardless of who they share their position with? I don't know, if I'm spending a top 2 pick on a tailback, I'm going for a guy who is the difference between a ground game and a DOMINANT, top of the NFL ground game, not somebody who has to share carries with a second round pick in order to have any kind of success at all. What is Reggie Bush doing for the Saints that Selvin Young couldn't do, or Ryan Grant, or even teammate Aaron Stecker? Answer: not one thing. The Saints are another team that I want to look at and say "Next Year, New Orleans!", but I can't. I honestly think they're getting all they're going to get out of Reggie Bush unless they have a healthy feature back to carry the ground game and let him be the change of pace. That ain't a top 2 draft pick, kids.
Giants over Bears, 21-16
My Pick: Bears over Giants, 31-20
It was a bullshit win, it didn't do anything to restore confidence in Eli Manning or Tom Coughlin, but the Giants really needed it and they'll take it. Where has Jeremy Shockey gone off to? Man do they need to dump this guy. Give me Bo Scaife ANY DAY over Shockey, who doesn't consistently show up, drops a ton of balls, makes a scene out of himself with regularity, and is just another fragile ego on the fragile Giants. I'd face the Giants over any other NFC playoff team if I had a choice.
Steelers over Bengals, 24-10
My Pick: Steelers over Bengals, 38-27
Yep, it sure did happen. The Bengals stink. The Steelers took care of business. Weather was a factor. Who knows what to expect of Cincinnati next year? Not this guy.
Patriots over Ravens, 27-24
My Pick: Patriots over Ravens by a lot
I could probably go on and on about how circumstances conspired to rip the hearts out of the Ravens and their fans, or how Billick torpedoed his team by not having confidence in his defense with the game on the line on a critical fourth down, or how the Patriots got amazingly lucky to pull this one out. The Ravens fought hard and gave the Pats a game, and the Pats pulled it out. It was fun to watch. I wish it had ended differently, but ah well.
I had a pretty respectable fantasy weekend, with a big assist from a few lackluster performances from the Patriots key guys. Winslow did not give me the boost I'd been hoping for, but Stephen Jackson and LT were huge and my Brees/Anderson QB combo did enough. I honestly have no trades or pick-ups to make for this weekend, so for the first time all season, I'll go into consecutive games with the exact same roster. Here's hoping!
One more thing: at Sean Taylor's funeral, the Mayor of Florida City spoke about his relationship to Sean Taylor over the years. Typical of a ceremony that was uniformly beautiful and respectful, his anectdotes about knowing Sean as the son of a policeman and as a hero to local youth were moving. His most important contribution to the affair, however, was a comment he threw in at the end of his time that drew a massive standing ovation from the overflowing auditorium: he remarked that he hopes the media has learned a little class and humility from the Sean Taylor story. Has this angle caught on? Are people starting to realize how unfair and horrible the media has been to Sean Taylor and his family in the wake of his death? It was a pretty amazing moment to witness, when the frustrations of everyone in the room and all those watching were expressed perfectly by an unlikely spokesman and in direct fashion. I'm with him: I hope the Wilbons and Blackistones and Pollins think long and hard about their role in the coverage of Taylor's death and make a change.
Picks should be out either this afternoon or Wednesday morning. PEACE!
Now the results:
Cowboys over Packers, 37-27
My Pick: Packers over Cowboys, 27-24
I wrote this during the game on Thursday, we'll call it the first-half diary:
"Part 1: Wow, talk about coming out with your tail between your legs. I never, NEVER thought I would see this in this game. The Packers look totally intimidated and their playcalling is absolutely terrible. They didn't even attempt to stay in their offense for a full quarter! No way . . . absolutely ZERO chance Green Bay wins this game. As much as I think Mike McCarthy is a great head coach, it looks to me like he never thought his team had a chance to win this game and never gave them a chance. There's NO WAY the Packers should be calling flea-flickers, no way they should be running play-action on consecutive plays, no way Brett Favre should be spending this much time under center. Horrid. Horrid, horrible, putrid, wretched garbage.
Part 2: Man, the Packers are SO not up to the task. Dallas is waltzing right through their defense and destroying their offense. I can honestly say I haven't been more disappointed in the performance of an NFL team since Norv Turner was head coach in Washington and I had to watch his sorry-ass Redskins every Sunday. Booooooo on the Packers! Boooooooo!
Part 3: Game over. Aaron Rodgers is entering the game. It's OVER. D-U-N. Rodgers can play as well as he wants to, the Packers will lose this game, period."
Was I right or what? Ok, everyone who saw Rodgers enter the game knew the Packers would go on to lose. No one predicted his stellar play. But the bigger story, in my opinion, was the shameful bed-crapping by Mike McCarthy in this game. What were the Packers doing getting so far away from the offense that had worked for them all season? Nothing frustrates me like a coach giving up on his team before the game even starts. Remember how Avery Johnson decided the Mavs had to go small before the Golden State series? That was Don Nelson, former boss, in his head. He never gave his team the chance to do what they'd done well all season, and they paid the price in historic fashion. That's what happens when you take a team that has thrived all season on spread formations with as many receivers in the game as possible and force them to play two tight-end sets with playaction passes and an emphasis on the ground game. What a shame.
Panthers over 49ers, 31-14
My Pick: Panthers over 49ers, 16-14
I didn't watch the game, and I really don't know what happened. I know Dilfer was terrible, Gore couldn't get loose, and the Niners returned to normalcy. The entire NFL should be rooting for the Niners to win every game from here on so the Patriots won't have a top 5 pick in the upcoming draft.
Colts over Jaguars, 28-25
My Pick: Colts over Jaguars, 21-17
. . . and there goes the AFC South. Congrats, Colts, on a well-deserved and hard-fought division crown. The thing that really stuck with me from this game, oddly, was my disappointment at David Garrard's interception. That never should have happened! He didn't make a bad decision, didn't force a ball, didn't cough it up; he threw a good ball, it was tipped, and the rest is history. Still, you've got to think the Jaguars are not a team any AFC opponent wants to face in the playoffs.
Vikings over Lions, 42-10
My Pick: Vikings over Lions, 28-24
. . . and there go the Lions. Ok, so, they might make the playoffs in the end, but this team is REELING. The injury to Roy Williams is a killer, their defense is crumbling, and the big play has completely disappeared from their offense. They ran the ball FOUR TIMES on Sunday. This has gotten out of hand. The only reason to have Mike Martz calling the shots is to create big plays and lots of points. If the passing attack isn't working, there's no reason to have this guy around. The lop-sided-ness of his offensive approach is out of control, especially for a team with a below-average defense and three, yes THREE talented, capable running backs on their roster. When this team got Kitna, they got a proud, confident signal-caller with the guts to play behind a Martz line, and that's what he's given them. They also got a four-year window, MAX, in which this guy is going to be productive even if he's upright. Kitna hasn't been a big name for long, but he's actually one of the older quarterbacks in the NFL. The pounding this guy has taken this year has probably cut the productive remainder of his career in half at least. I wish I could say "next year, Detroit!" with any confidence, but I honestly see this team taking a step backwards next year unless they can find a way to commit to a reasonable offensive strategy week in and week out. As for the Vikings, lost in all the ADAP talk and Chester Taylor's success is the quiet emergence of Tarvaris Jackson in the last few weeks. His numbers on Sunday, and last Sunday, are actually pretty impressive. If this guy can continue to produce like this into the post-season, they'll be a SUPER tough team to beat, and he'll make Brad Childress look like a friggin' genius.
Chargers over Chiefs, 24-10
My Pick: Chargers over Chiefs, 28-17
. . . and there goes the AFC West, thank God. I'm not jumping on the Chargers bandwagon: there's simply no way they can make any noise in the post-season the way Philip Rivers is playing, and they haven't put together more than two consecutive good weeks all season. Still, I'm thrilled that laughing-stock of an NFL division is finally clearing up. As for the Chiefs, when I think about it, they may have more to do in the off-season than all but maybe one or two teams in the AFC. Do they have the long-term answer at QB? Do they have depth anywhere? Do they have the receivers to compete? Hell no, hell no, hell no.
Jets over Dolphins, 40-13
My Pick: Jets over Dolphins, 17-10
That's how bad the Phins are: the Jets put 40 up on 'em and NOBODY on the Jets had an above average day offensively. Seriously, look at the numbers: Thomas Jones ran for a whopping 3 yards per carry. Kellen Clemens went 15 of 24 for 236 with a TD and a pick. Leon Washington had a nice day, with 68 yards on 10 carries, but still: those aren't big-time numbers. How about rookie John Beck with 6 turnovers? Yipe. I don't know if the Dolphins are feeling much pressure to win a game right now, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say Beck might not be the guy to get them there this season. What's more important, avoiding the dreaded winless season or getting the kid ready for next year? I guess Cam Cameron has answered that one, and I can't say I disagree, really. What does one win do for this team? Not one thing.
Bills over Redskins, 17-16
My Pick: Redskins over Bills, 31-21
Immediately after the game, I was pretty charged up over the second half performance of the Skins, the unbelievable mistake Gibbs made at the end, and the whole situation of losing yet another game in which the Skins seemed to have the upper hand most of the way and took a lead into half-time. On Monday, I watched Sean Taylor's funeral, and you know what? I'm more aware than ever of what these guys have had to go through in the past week. So they lost a football game. So the hell what. I would have really cherished a victory, but what the fuck. The funeral was really something, puts things in perspective.
On the other hand, it might be time for ol' Gibbs to hang 'em up. I love the guy, but I think he's taken this team as far as he can take them in his capacity as head coach. He took a franchise headed in the wrong direction and pointed them the right way, and they've got some good things to build around. I can't imagine how frustrated some of the players must have been after the game on Sunday, having toughed it out during one of the hardest weeks of their professional lives, and then come up short after a pretty horrible error by the coaches right at the end. I'm not saying the time out cost them the game: the Bills' kicker had just nailed the 51-yarder before the first time-out. But they took it from a maybe 60% shot to a 90% shot because the coaches don't know the rules. That's pretty bad.
All that aside, I'm hoping the Skins finish out the season with pride and win a few.
Titans over Texans, 28-20
My Pick: Titans over Texans, 24-17
So the hierarchy of the AFC South is now firmly established. Here's what I know: if Vince Young doesn't continue to take big strides as a passer this off-season, the pecking order will look a bit different next year. The Texans are pretty clearly a team on the rise, whereas the Titans seem to be stuck in fourth gear. It's hard to look at Tennessee's offense and figure out where they're supposed to be getting production from on a consistent basis. If Lendale White is able to stay healthy and productive, and they are able to keep some depth back there, they can run the ball. If their udnerwhelming receiving corps yields a hidden gem, they might be able to put together a passing game. If Vince Young progresses as a passer . . . etc. The Texans, on the other hand, have a polished passer in Matt Schaub and at least one true-blue NFL receiver in Andre Johnson. The Titans need to finish strong to get in the playoffs; I don't see it happening.
Rams over Falcons, 28-16
My Pick: Rams over Falcons, 28-20
Yep. Nailed it. Needed a late 50-yard scamper by Stephen Jackson, but nailed it all the same.
Seahawks over Eagles, 28-24
My Pick: Eagles over Seahawks, 21-17
Hey, it turns out A. J. Feeley isn't the second coming of John Elway after all! Who knew? With the win, the Seahawks have essentially wrapped up the NFC West, another train-wreck of a division. The Jacks have just enough playoff experience and attitude to rip off a post-season run in the weak NFC, but I think they stink.
Cardinals over Browns, 27-21
My Pick: Browns over Cardinals, 35-28
Let this be a lesson to NFL teams, one that started in the Skins/Bucs game last Sunday: early turnovers will KILL you on the road. You don't want to be playing from behind against a playoff hopeful on the road, and just like the Skins last week in Tampa, the quarterback had a few early misfires and the road team couldn't recover. How about that hail-mary at the end? The Browns brass and Kellen Winslow Jr. will be watching that one on slow-motion replay for the next 7 years, calling up Roger Goodell at 3am to talk about a new angle. I don't know, that call could very easily have gone either way, and I have a hard time figuring how the refs didn't think Winslow was pushed out. Fun game, gotta love those Browns.
Raiders over Broncos, 34-20
My Pick: Broncos over Raiders, 24-20
Wh-wh-whaaaaaat?! Inexcusable. What a major letdown for the Broncos, who still had a hope-in-hell of playing for a playoff spot.
Bucs over Saints, 27-23
My Pick: Bucs over Saints, 24-20
What are the chances the 2006 draft class goes down as the most disappointing top 10 in NFL history? Think about it: Mario Williams has been a disappointment; we'll get back to Reggie Bush; Vince Young seems to have taken a step laterally, if not backwards; A. J. Hawk and DaBrickashaw Ferguson have been good, but Vernon Davis has been bad; Matt Leinart hasn't worked out yet. There might be some great players in there, but measured against expectations, Mario Williams, Reggie Bush, and Matt Leinart have all been disappointments and the jury is still out on Vince Young. Those were the big names in the 2006 draft. My reason for bringing this up is this: the Saints aren't getting nearly enough from the runningback position to be a consistently good team. Let's say that comes back to the injury to Deuce McAlister; I'll give you that. But shouldn't a projected first overall draft pick with Hall of Fame expecations be expected to produce big number regardless of who they share their position with? I don't know, if I'm spending a top 2 pick on a tailback, I'm going for a guy who is the difference between a ground game and a DOMINANT, top of the NFL ground game, not somebody who has to share carries with a second round pick in order to have any kind of success at all. What is Reggie Bush doing for the Saints that Selvin Young couldn't do, or Ryan Grant, or even teammate Aaron Stecker? Answer: not one thing. The Saints are another team that I want to look at and say "Next Year, New Orleans!", but I can't. I honestly think they're getting all they're going to get out of Reggie Bush unless they have a healthy feature back to carry the ground game and let him be the change of pace. That ain't a top 2 draft pick, kids.
Giants over Bears, 21-16
My Pick: Bears over Giants, 31-20
It was a bullshit win, it didn't do anything to restore confidence in Eli Manning or Tom Coughlin, but the Giants really needed it and they'll take it. Where has Jeremy Shockey gone off to? Man do they need to dump this guy. Give me Bo Scaife ANY DAY over Shockey, who doesn't consistently show up, drops a ton of balls, makes a scene out of himself with regularity, and is just another fragile ego on the fragile Giants. I'd face the Giants over any other NFC playoff team if I had a choice.
Steelers over Bengals, 24-10
My Pick: Steelers over Bengals, 38-27
Yep, it sure did happen. The Bengals stink. The Steelers took care of business. Weather was a factor. Who knows what to expect of Cincinnati next year? Not this guy.
Patriots over Ravens, 27-24
My Pick: Patriots over Ravens by a lot
I could probably go on and on about how circumstances conspired to rip the hearts out of the Ravens and their fans, or how Billick torpedoed his team by not having confidence in his defense with the game on the line on a critical fourth down, or how the Patriots got amazingly lucky to pull this one out. The Ravens fought hard and gave the Pats a game, and the Pats pulled it out. It was fun to watch. I wish it had ended differently, but ah well.
I had a pretty respectable fantasy weekend, with a big assist from a few lackluster performances from the Patriots key guys. Winslow did not give me the boost I'd been hoping for, but Stephen Jackson and LT were huge and my Brees/Anderson QB combo did enough. I honestly have no trades or pick-ups to make for this weekend, so for the first time all season, I'll go into consecutive games with the exact same roster. Here's hoping!
One more thing: at Sean Taylor's funeral, the Mayor of Florida City spoke about his relationship to Sean Taylor over the years. Typical of a ceremony that was uniformly beautiful and respectful, his anectdotes about knowing Sean as the son of a policeman and as a hero to local youth were moving. His most important contribution to the affair, however, was a comment he threw in at the end of his time that drew a massive standing ovation from the overflowing auditorium: he remarked that he hopes the media has learned a little class and humility from the Sean Taylor story. Has this angle caught on? Are people starting to realize how unfair and horrible the media has been to Sean Taylor and his family in the wake of his death? It was a pretty amazing moment to witness, when the frustrations of everyone in the room and all those watching were expressed perfectly by an unlikely spokesman and in direct fashion. I'm with him: I hope the Wilbons and Blackistones and Pollins think long and hard about their role in the coverage of Taylor's death and make a change.
Picks should be out either this afternoon or Wednesday morning. PEACE!
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