Week 15 Pix and Only Pix

I'm a big loser, I'm very busy at work, I'm not as enthusiastic about the picks these days . . . there are many reasons. Here are my picks.

Chicago @ New Orleans
Saints over Bears, 30-24

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Falcons over Bucs, 23-17

San Francisco @ Miami
Dolphins over 49ers, 17-14

Seattle @ St. Louis
Seahawks tie Rams, 10-10

Buffalo @ New York Jets
Jets over Bills, 31-17

San Diego @ Kansas City
Chargers over Chiefs, 27-20

Washington @ Cincinnati
Washington's offense breaks out. I swear.
Redskins over Bengals, 30-17

Tennessee @ Houston
Titans over Texans, 23-21

Green Bay @ Jacksonville
I'm never picking the Packers again.
Jaguars over Packers, 20-19

Detroit @ Indianapolis
Colts over Lions, 35-14

Minnesota @ Arizona
Cardinals over Vikings, 27-23

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Ravens over Steelers, 13-10

Denver @ Carolina
Panthers over Broncos, 37-28

New England @ Oakland
Patriots over Raiders, 24-7

New York Giants @ Dallas
Dallas is fully imploding. T.O. is calling meetings, accusing Romo and Witten of drawing up plays in the sand and not including him, despite the fact that 2 of Romo's 3 picks on Sunday were horribly forced passes to Owens. Romo looks like garbage, the team chemistry is awful, and New York is pissed off and hungry.
Giants over Cowboys, 25-24

Cleveland @ Philadelphia
Keep an eye on this game. Philly sucks at home, and they suck overall. Cleveland's defense is better than you think.
Eagles over Browns, 20-9

That's it. I really will try to do more next week. I swear.

Go Skynards!

Fucking NFL - Week 14 Edition

I went 12-4 with my picks this weekend, but my enthusiasm for the 2008 NFL season is almost gone. The following things depress the shit out of me:

1. The awful, contemptible San Diego Chargers winning any football game by 27 points, especially a prime-time game.
2. Philadelphia getting their first NFC East win when they're already pretty much cooked on the season. Even worse that it happened against the Giants, who played so poorly on Sunday I'm no longer making them my favorite to go to the Super Bowl from the NFC.
3. Minnesota winning a game in Detroit they had no business winning. These guys are due a huge karmic backlash. This game is like the movie Final Destination. The Lions were supposed to win that game. Now Minnesota will spend the rest of the season watching their players go down in gruesome fashion.
4. New England winning in Seattle when they had no business escaping with a victory. Seattle was the better team and they were supposed to win that game.
5. Two teams that started the season off wonderfully and looked like admirable dark-horses (the Bills and Redskins) got shoved around, beat up, exposed, and ultimately eliminated in unceremonious fashion Sunday.

There were two (2) bright spots: 1. Tony Romo utterly, utterly imploded and single-handedly ruined Dallas's chances in Pittsburgh. The ground game was strong. The defense was as good as they've ever been or ever will be. There's only one reason the Cowboys didn't win on Sunday: from beginning to end, Tony Romo was determined to kill his team. 4 total turnovers, including the game-winning touchdown "pass". Lovely! 2. Eric Mangini really went out of his way to look like a doofus in the Jets horribly one-sided, crushing loss to the 49ers. First of all, I love any coach who calls only 11 running plays when his defense is spending too much time on the field and his backfield is churning out over 5 yards per carry. That kind of balls-out stupidity, especially on a team as loathsome as the Jets, can brighten even the darkest Sunday. I've looked at the time of possession stats of that game at least . . . well, twice, and I still can't believe it. 39 minutes of possession? By San Francisco? Holy hell.

Now, a quick re-cap of week 14. And I do mean quick.

San Diego over Oakland, 34-7
My Pick: San Diego over Oakland, 20-14
Great. Good win. Not that this game had even the slightest bit of value or meaning. I hate the Chargers so much I'm starting to hate the actual city of San Diego, and I've never been there.

New Orleans over Atlanta, 29-25
My Pick: Atlanta over New Orleans, 34-30
This was a tough loss, but fortunately for the Falcons, Dallas and Tampa and Washington all also lost, meaning Atlanta sits in pretty much the exact same position they were in headed into week 14. As for the Saints, hey, good win. The Saints are dangerous at home.

Indianapolis over Whoever . . . ummmmm . . . Cincinnati? 35-3
My Pick: Indianapolis over Cincinnati, 27-13
Let's hope this is the same Bengals team that shows up on Sunday to host the Washington Redskins. That'd be just fine with me.

Philadelphia over New York Giants, 20-14
My Pick: New York Giants over Philadelphia, 28-14
Eli Manning was absolutely dismal on Sunday. He played as poorly as any NFL quarterback has played all season. Whatever else happened in this game, ultimately you have to hang this loss around his neck. Now the Giants are really banged up headed down the stretch. This game, more than any other, made me angry at the NFL. On the one hand, the whole "any given Sunday" thing makes the NFL exciting. On the other hand, fuck, I wish good teams would play well on every goddamn given Sunday. Legit Super Bowl contenders do not play as poorly as the Giants did on Sunday, not in a league that isn't super fucking thin. I'm sorry, but you can't play like a blind, burned-out junkie and have your balls ripped off and expect me to take you seriously. The Giants are a good football team, but I seem to remember a time when the really good teams in the NFL were always good, week in and week out. Sometimes they lost when their opponents were on fire, but really good teams never came out and stumbled around like fucking retards in awful, embarrassing one-sided demolitions. And that's what this was; before the Giants put up a meaningless score with under 2 minutes left, this was a 20-7 bloodbath in which the Giants had put up almost zero fight and had one of the worst, most inept offenses on any field in America this Sunday. So how in the hell does a team with the ability to look this totally dysfunctional and directionless manage to win 11 of 12 and pretty easily put away a competitive NFC East with weeks to spare? Well, the NFL is a dogshit league these days. Even the good teams are just in a transition period between sucking and sucking again. NFL franchises don't have systems, foundations, strategies, or personnel long enough to develop into the kind of teams that will always be sharp and competitive on Sunday, even in a loss. Once upon a time, every NFL team had somebody at quarterback who could see out of both eyes, offensive and defensive coordinators who knew how to use the players available to them, and even if they didn't play well every Sunday, they played roughly the same every Sunday. Bad teams were bad because they were bad. Good teams were good because they were actually good. In today's NFL, good teams are good when the stars are aligned, the wind blows at 4.7 miles per hour from the northwest, nobody on the roster implodes or sleepwalks, and the opponent lays down. Bad teams are only bad when they're trying to get their coach fired.

I'm very down on the NFL today.

Tennessee over Cleveland, 28-9
My Pick: Tennessee over Cleveland, 37-10
Cleveland sucked, Tennessee did what they were supposed to do.

Houston over Green Bay, 24-21
My Pick: Green Bay over Houston, 24-20
Matt Schaub and Steve Slaton were both excellent. The Packers were rubbish. Fuck the Packers. No team in the NFL is as good at finding ways to lose as the Packers. And what the fuck happened to Green Bay's defense? They're garbage. To reiterate: fuck the Packers.

Minnesota over Detroit, 20-16
My Pick: Minnesota over Detroit, 28-24
The Lions had this game, and they were supposed to win it. This was their week. I haven't yet figured out which team is going to get the bigger cosmic retribution; Minnesota, for winning what was supposed to be Detroit's game? Or Detroit, for letting their week slip away? Probably Detroit. Minnesota had more turnovers and more penalties; they did their part. They also put Tarvaris Jackson in the game, another concession. Minnesota did their part. As for the Lions, losing this game is like looking the gift horse in the mouth. I've never been sure what that means, but anyway they say you shouldn't do it.

Chicago over Jacksonville, 23-10
My Pick: Chicago over Jacksonville, 21-17
Way to show up, Jaguars. Jack Del Rio might have already been fired by now. If I felt like checking any sports news outlets, I might find that out. At any rate, he's pretty clearly got a pink slip coming to him. No way he comes back in 2009.

New England over Seattle, 24-21
My Pick: New England over Seattle, 28-19
They say a win is a win, but I'm not so sure. Seneca Wallace put 3 passing touchdowns on the board, ran for 47 yards, and pretty much had the Seahawks in position for a win before New England scrambled down the stretch and managed to sneak off with the "w". Now tell me, coming out of this game, which team do you think feels better? I'm guessing it's not New England. They couldn't run the ball for shit, their defense didn't do much, and they were pretty well outplayed all afternoon.

Miami over Buffalo, 16-3
My Pick: Miami over Buffalo, 21-20
Seriously. A "home" date in a dome in Toronto in December is a raw-deal, but the Bills were so flat they could probably be investigated for sabotage. It's one thing to gripe about handing away your homefield advantage, something else entirely to scuttle your entire season over it. If you're going to see your season officially flushed down the toilet, I'm not sure I can think of a worse, more depressing way than by scoring only 3 points in a lopsided loss to a division rival in a relocated "home" game. Yuck.

San Francisco over New York Jets, 24-14
My Pick: San Francisco over New York Jets, 20-14
I was spot-friggin'-on with this pick. The Jets got fucking obliterated in San Francisco. Pay no attention to that final score. New York was doubled up in yards and time of possession. The Jets defense was exposed a week ago and subsequently manhandled and brutally sodomized this Sunday. Wow. Has any defense been so embarrassingly bad with a nickel back on the field? Jesus. Eric Mangini, defensive genius, maybe you want to practice in something other than your base set? Holy hell. And what about the offense? 11 running plays to 31 passes? When your defense is tired from being on the field for more than twice as long as the opponent? What . . . the . . . fuck.

Denver over Kansas City, 24-17
My Pick: Denver over Kansas City, 28.5-20
Denver wins the AFC West.

Arizona over St. Louis, 34-10
My Pick: Arizona over St. Louis, 35-16
Pretty close, right?

Pittsburgh over Dallas, 20-13
My Pick: Pittsburgh over Dallas, 20-10
Hey, you don't go 12-4 on Sunday without getting some picks pretty damn spot on.

Tony Romo, folks. To hell with all these "gunslingers". This is what happens when a gunslinger goes up against a great defense; they sling it right to the defense. Will Tony Romo eat shit for it? Probably not. He's got his shriveled dick so far up the media's lubed-up ass, they'll probably find a way to blame his receivers.

Baltimore over Washington, 24-10
My Pick: Washington over Baltimore, 25-17
I said the Redskins needed to split the New York/Baltimore games to make the playoffs. They did not. They will not make the playoffs. It's all but official. I don't so much care about that.

What I do care about, though, is suffering through another dismal offensive showing by the Redskins, who might have one of the worst pass-protecting offensive lines in football. Now that that offensive line is down to Casey Rabach, Pete Kendall, a couple of scarecrows and a feisty Hog-ette, I can't see the situation improving down the stretch.

Here's what's missing: fucking ANYBODY other than Jason Campbell among Washington's offensive players who has anything like game-breaking ability. Washington fans are calling for a switch at quarterback, and I personally love the idea; why should we have even one guy on the field at any given moment who can both outrun a small child and reach the cupboards in my kitchen? Seriously, I love this team. Clinton Portis executes better than any tailback in football, but he has no speed at all whatsoever. The days of expecting Portis to break a run longer than 30 yards are over, and not just because teams are loading up to stop him. He might be the slowest tailback in football. Santana Moss is a smooth athlete with a lot of burst, but for fuck's sake, he's my height, he drops a lot of balls, and he's not the best in the world at a) getting open, nor b) making tough catches. Antwan Randle El is a great spokesperson for the Redskins, but that's about it. Chris Cooley is another precise player who executes well, and at the tight end position, that's what you want. On the other hand, when you don't have any other receiver on the team who isn't completely one-dimensional, Cooley's production is more or less useless, because once the Redskins get down in the redzone, the area of the field where their general shrimpiness becomes a major, major liability, all defenses have to focus on is the friggin' tight end. As for the offensive line, what the fuck. These guys can only run block. Why? Because the average age is something like 45. Pete Kendall doesn't even practice during the week because he's so goddamn old and busted. Jon Jansen's knees are about as sturdy as a house of cards. Casey Rabach, holy shit. Don't get me started. Chris Samuels apparently has ebola or some shit. He's more busted down than the U.S. Auto Industry. Randy Thomas was never a special pass-blocker. The Redskins need a lot of help up front. This upcoming draft must yield at least one viable starter on the offensive line.

As for the defense, Christ it's the same shit every week! Zero pass rush, and I mean zero. I'm getting tired of people talking about them "getting pressure", but just no sacks. Motherfuckers, either they're getting pressure and have the worst secondary in football, or they aren't getting pressure for shit. My fucking eyes tell me they couldn't generate pressure on a blood pressure cuff. The Redskins have a fantastic secondary, maybe the deepest in the NFL, but it isn't worth shit if they can't ever force a quick throw up front. Of all the annoying shit that's been exposed about this Redskins team in the last 5 weeks, the utter inability to get even a little bit of consistent pressure is so maddening I want to run out onto the field and twist Jason Taylor's head off.

I'm allowing myself to rant a little bit after this loss because it marked the end of the Redskins 2008 season. All in all, I'd still call the season a success and I still think this Redskins team ranks among my all-time favorites in burgundy and gold. The Redskins might be one of only a handful of semi-successful or successful teams in the league that actually plays pretty consistently every Sunday. It's just a shame they can't play at a consistently higher level. And when I use the word "can't", I friggin' mean it. They can't. They don't have it. Maybe next season, when Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas and Fred Davis are ready to make bigger contributions and the offensive and defensive lines have been addressed, maybe they'll be able to do something in Jim Zorn's offense. As for this season, I'm no longer waiting for the Redskins to have a break-out offensive game. They don't have it. The 29 points they put up in week 2 is the high-point. The personnel ain't right. There it is.

Carolina over Tampa Bay, 38-23
My Pick: Carolina over Tampa Bay, 20-13
Carolina and Tampa Bay, two more NFC teams that don't belong in the discussion of best team in the NFL. This season, there is no best team in the NFL. I refuse to put anyone atop that pile. No team in the NFL has been good enough week to week to earn it. Please don't anybody dare utter the word "Tennessee", either. Kerry Collins is playing like a guy who wants to go back to the bench. Tennessee's offense isn't scaring anybody, and their defense is coming back to earth. They're not better than Carolina.


And that's the whole deal for week 14. This season has gotten very messy, and I'm getting sick of it. Hopefully week 15 will be a little better.

Peace!

Hastily Banged Out Thursday Evening Picks for Week 14

Quickly, now:

Oakland @ San Diego
The Line: San Diego by 10
Yep. Looks about right. Will I be surprised at all if Oakland wins this game by 3 scores? No. But the law of averages says the Chargers are going to win another game or two this season, and this is one of 'em.
Chargers over Raiders, 20-14

Atlanta @ New Orleans
The Line: New Orleans by 3
I don't know, New Orleans is a crappy team. The Falcons are a hundred times better than New Orleans. On the other hand, the Saints are a much, much better team at home, where their offense can be just absurdly dangerous.

I want Atlanta to win, I think they have a good shot. Know what? I'm taking 'em. They've faced bigger, badder foes farther from home. I think they can handle Drew Brees and his motley crew in New Orleans.
Falcons over Saints, 34-30

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
The Line: Indianapolis by 13-5
Yeah, I don't see Cincy winning this game. A few times this season they've looked completely dead on their feet. Other times, they've had a little fight in 'em. It's impossible to know what might inspire them to show up and pour their guts out. You have to pick the Colts. It shouldn't be close.
Colts over Bengals, 27-13

Philadelphia @ New York Giants
The Line: Giants by 7
I'm not going to do the whole "Philly might surprise someone" thing. Fuck them. The Giants are 7,000 times better, hungrier, tougher, better prepared, and more professional than the Eagles. The Giants win this game by 2 scores at least.
Giants over Eagles, 28-14

Cleveland @ Tennessee
The Line: Tennessee by 14
Here's the rest of what I started to say about Ken Dorsey in my week 13 recap: there might only be two or three players in the NFL I'd rather sit down and have a beer with. This cat's been cool as a cucumber since his freshman year at Miami. He was a gamer then, he's probably still got a little gamer in him. Too bad this is the NFL, where a pretty startling lack of NFL-grade ability will ultimately negate any clutch ballership he's got left in the tank. And there's the distinct possibility the Browns will have the ball for fewer than 20 minutes of offense. Titans win huge.
Titans over Browns, 37-10

Houston @ Green Bay
The Line: Green Bay by 6
If Matt Schaub plays, this'll be a nice little match-up of talented young passers who so far haven't been able to take their teams to the next level. I do think both of these guys will turn out to be damn-near-elite, Pro Bowl level quarterbacks if they can stay healthy. As for this game, Houston could win, especially if they play as well as they did last Monday. I'm taking Green Bay, because they're at home and they're due. Also, I think they're a lot more talented on both sides of the ball.
Packers over Texans, 24-20

Minnesota @ Detroit
The Line: Minnesota by 9
This game should be a huge step towards locking up the division for Minnesota. Detroit is friggin' road kill right now, Minnesota should be able to pound the living shit out of 'em. On the other hand, Minnesota is a crappy, fragile team, they're dealing with all kinds of controversy right now regarding their interior defensive line, and I don't know if I can pick them to take a decisive step towards anything positive. If they were playing almost anyone else . . .
Vikings over Lions, 28-24

Jacksonville @ Chicago
The Line: Chicago by 6.5
Is Jacksonville up for playing spoiler? Here's a prime opportunity. I guess it depends on how fully they've tuned out Jack Del Rio. I don't know, I'm kinda leaning towards Jacksonville.

No, know what? They won't be able to run the ball, they won't make a serious effort, they'll be flat overall, and they don't have the juice to win in December in cold-ass Chicago. Bears win!
Bears over Jaguars, 21-17

New England @ Seattle
The Line: New England by 4.5
New England needs this win. They need to recover some offensive mojo and get back in rhythm almost as much as they need to win the game. Seattle, on the other hand, just doesn't have any rhythm or heart or resolve. I won't say they've quit on the season, because they're still playing hard, but nothing about the way they carry themselves or play suggests they expect to win. I'll give them points for continuing the fight, but I think they expect to lose and will find a way to make it happen.
Patriots over Seahawks, 28-19

Miami @ Buffalo
The Line: Buffalo by 1
So this is the Toronto bowl. I feel bad for the Bills; with their season all but ruined, they get an indoors, fast-track "home" game against a division foe ahead of them in the standings coming off a 1-15 season. It just seems like such a set-up: Miami will probably win this game, it'll officially wreck Buffalo's season and put them below .500, and it'll just be such a sharp, stinging slap in the face to the Bills, who came into this season at the opposite end of the "reasons for optimism" spectrum from Miami. Oh well. I'm definitely taking the Dolphins. Buffalo could win, but they've looked pretty bad for a while, not counting their 100-1 demolition of the Chiefs.
Dolphins over Bills, 21-20

New York Jets @ San Francisco
The Line: Jets by 4
I really don't care. I hope San Francisco wins. In fact, I'm picking them. Hey, they're at home, right? Don't Niners fans have it in for Favre after some of the old post-season battles when he was in Green Bay? Well, here's hoping!
49ers over Jets, 20-14

Kansas City @ Denver
The Line: Denver by 8.5
Broncos win.
Broncos over Chiefs, 28.5-20

St. Louis @ Arizona
The Line: Arizona by 14
This should be Arizona's big, bad get-healthy game. They ought to roll the shit out of St. Louis. If they don't they're garbage. GARBAGE. An actual contender would flat-out demolish this Rams team in this game.

Arizona plays well enough at home. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now.
Cardinals over Rams, 35-16

Dallas @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh by 3
Wade Philips gave some of his veterans time off this week in preparation for this game.
Wade Philips gave some of his veterans time off this week in preparation for the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh.
Either this guy is the greatest genius in the history of mankind, and we'll find that out on Sunday, or he's exactly the utter, utter retard we've always feared. For a team that has a critical lack of focus, giving players time off and away from practice headed into a late-season game against the NFL's most ferocious, confusing, out-of-control aggressive defense sounds like effing suicide to me.
Hey, if it works, I'll be the first to give the guy all the credit in the world. I don't think it will work.
Steelers over Cowboys, 20-10

Washington @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 5
Hey, if Matt Bowen over at National Football Post thinks the Redskins are going to win this game, that's good enough for me. Nevermind that Matt Bowen is an ex-Redskin who couldn't possibly ooze more affection for his former team into his posts.

The Redskins win this game if they attempt 10-15 passes of greater than 20 yards and keep the Ravens under 24 points. Indy beat Baltimore by trying to gun down their secondary, the only part of Baltimore's defense that is reliably vulnerable. Jason Campbell has a bigger arm than Peyton Manning, Washington's receivers are faster, we need the game more, it's not even really a road game, and the Redskins defense is only 20 times better than Indy's.

So there. Skins win.
Redskins over Ravens, 25-17

Tampa Bay @ Carolina
The Line: Carolina by 3
Huge game. NFC South up for grabs, second place in the NFC on the line, Atlanta in hot pursuit. Carolina looked like a team that can just refuse to lose last Sunday in Green Bay. Tampa's offense looked like hammered shit at home. Again, this game comes down to Jake Delhomme not throwing the game away. I'm probably more impressed by Tampa's defense, but I have greater faith in Carolina's offense, and they've suddenly become a good home team. I'm taking Carolina and rooting hard for them.
Panthers over Bucs, 20-13

There you have it. Wild, wacky week at work, wotherfuckers. Didn't have much time to bang these out. No extras this week. No complete sentences. Must go play Madden now.

Go Skynards!

I Owned Week 13

An ass-kicking 11-5 record this weekend, including brilliant gut-picks like Atlanta in San Diego and Carolina in Green Bay. My reward for another strong weekend of picks despite taking something like 10 road teams? I get to bang out some pretty short re-caps. I didn't pay a whole lot of attention to real football this holiday weekend, opting to go Madden-crazy instead.

So here we go:

Tennessee over Detroit, 47-10
My Pick: Tennessee over Detroit, 27-10
The Titans did what you might expect them to do, which is get healthy behind the ground game at the expense of the poor Lions, who had the misfortune of running up against an angry Titans team, coming off their first loss of the season, in Detroit's only nationally televised game of the season.

I really do think the Lions will go winless in 2008.

Dallas over Seattle, 34-9
My Pick: Dallas over Seattle, 34-20
Hey, two games in a row in which I pretty much caught the spirit of the affair. Seattle had just enough energy to hang around for about a quarter and get into scoring position a few times before finally crapping out. Look, nothing against Mike Holmgren, who I generally think is a damn good coach, but this team has pretty obviously quit. Do they hustle? Sure. But they look like they're going through the motions to me, especially now that Matt Hasselback is under center again. I've said it a hundred times: Hasselback is a front-runner, when things aren't going his way or he isn't comfortable he plays like a chicken-shit.

Anyway, Dallas looks like they're rounding into form, which is what you'd expect after a handful of games with Roy Williams at wide-out. Right now, if you're Wade Philips, you've got to be thinking about the 2007 New York Giants, and how it was a late season run that put them at top speed and made them so formidable in the playoffs. If the Cowboys are smart, they'll do everything they can to win all their remaining games by two touchdowns.

Philadelphia over Arizona, 41-21
My Pick: Arizona over Philadelphia, 27-21
Know what? The Cardinals are exactly the same team as the Redskins, only opposite in some small, strange ways. For instance, the Cardinals pass the ball very well, but can't seem to figure out the ground game, and it makes them one-dimensional, and it's hurting their offense badly. The Redskins run the ball very well but can't figure out the passing offense, to the same effect. Arizona can't figure out how to win on the road, whereas the Redskins can't seem to figure out how to win at home. Both teams are 7-5. The difference? The Redskins play in the NFC East, which is now 3-1 against Arizona, whereas the Cardinals play in the NFC West, where 7-5 is good enough to leave you just a game away from clinching the division. How in the hell is that fair? If the Redskins played in the NFC West, they'd be no worse than 9-3 today.

It's hard for me to care about this game one way or another. I'm done with the part of my life where I buy into anything this Philadelphia Eagles team does well on offense, so 41 points doesn't really mean shit to me. If Cincinnati put up 41 it'd mean more to me than this. The Eagles are garbage. The Cardinals, it turns out, are total pretenders. Ah well.

San Francisco over Buffalo, 10-3
My Pick: Buffalo over San Francisco, 17-10
Ouch. Quite possibly the worst loss of the season by any team.

And continuing down that thread, how in the hell did they lose this game? At home, they outgained the Niners by 155 yards. Marshawn Lynch ran for 134 yards. Buffalo had more time of possession, more drives into their opponent's territory, more drives inside the 30, more first downs, better starting field position, and fewer three-and-outs. It's a mystery. You have to try very hard to dominate a game like that, only score three points, and lose at home.

And as for Marshawn Lynch, how do you know when the whole "NFL starting tailback" thing isn't working out? When you get 134 yards on only 16 carries at home and your team puts up only 3 points and you lose. Honestly, seriously, I really like this guy, but has he had a positive impact on a single Buffalo game all season? If so, when?

Baltimore over Cincinnati, 34-3
My Pick: Baltimore over Cincinnati, 23-14
Oh, wait, this loss was pretty bad, too. Granted, nothing was on the line, but damn. 34-3? In a division game? At home? My God, the Bengals are incredibly bad. There are no fewer than 5 teams this season that genuinely belong in the discussion of worst teams of the last 25 years. Take one of these teams (Rams, Raiders, Chiefs, Bengals) and dump them in any other season since 1983 and you're looking at a strong contender for worst team in the NFL. This season? There's a hands-down worst team (the Lions), and the list of abysmal, totally dysfunctional teams runs at least 6 or 7 deep if you throw in San Francisco and Seattle. When has the NFL ever been this bottom-heavy?

And I'm oh-so-happy the Ravens are blazing at about 1000% headed into next Sunday's prime-time home game against the reeling Redskins. That's just fucking great.

Indianapolis over Cleveland, 10-6
My Pick: Indianapolis over Cleveland, 29-21
So it wasn't quite the shoot-out I thought it might be. The Browns are so beyond cooked. Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn are out for the season. That means the Browns are going into Tennessee (gulp) with (oh God no) Ken Dorsey at quarterback. I'll hit on this a bit more in my week 14 picks, but here's a teaser: I really like Ken Dorsey. He was one of the first college quarterbacks I ever really gave a shit about, I think he's an excellent dude, and I'm betting he's got a strong future ahead of him as an quarterbacks coach or offensive coordinator. But he's getting his fucking head torn off next Sunday.

As for this game, hey, Indy found a way to win. Good for them. They're sitting pretty in the wild-card chase, especially since New England and Buffalo both had their doors blown off.

Miami over St. Louis, 16-12
My Pick: Miami over St. Louis, 23-17
Miami likes to make 'em close, but at least they got the job done. But there are some things you can't do if you want to win regularly, and among them is committing 10 penalties and putting two fumbles on the ground on the road. Miami escaped with this one. A win is a win, but they need to shore that shit up.

New York Giants over Washington, 23-7
My Pick: New York Giants over Washington, 20-13
Yeah, I was about right with this one.

The word that comes to mind is "out-classed". The Giants out-classed the Redskins. As much as I hate to agree with anything John Riggins has to say about the Redskins after a loss, about this he's correct: the Giants are in a completely different class from the Redskins. They're deeper and better at just about every single position on both sides of the ball. The Giants don't have to do one particular thing especially well to beat most teams in the NFL. They can adjust and tinker and mis-fire and restart and still win going away. If this team doesn't win the Super Bowl this season, I'll be incredibly disappointed. Even the Patriots had vulnerabilities. The Patriots were not going to run the ball down your throat, nor were they going to dominate defensively. The Giants can pound you to death or they can air it out. There defense will dominate. They have better special teams than you. The Giants are better than you.

As for those poor goddamn Redskins, whatever special ingredient is needed to get the passing game going, the poor bastards just don't have it. They have to play too perfectly to score points in the passing game. That was never more evident than after this game, when Jim Zorn made a comment about how the Redskins need to score more points, and that the running game has clicked, but they just need to throw it better and catch it better. While I agree with the general sentiment of that statement, when your quarterback completes 23 passes for 232 yards and you've only put up 7 total points, it's not necessarily all execution. There's a play-calling element. There's also pass protection. Mostly, there just aren't any Redskins receivers or tight ends that can reliably go out and win individual match-ups. Malcolm Kelly, Devin Thomas, and Fred Davis might eventually be those guys. Right now, though, there's nobody. The Redskins have a group of guys that can execute extremely well, and that's to their credit. You need guys like that, and I wouldn't trade or dump a single one of them. On the other hand, there's this: Dallas has a goddamn rookie tight end with 4 touchdowns in 15 receptions. Martellus Bennett doesn't execute especially well, and the Cowboys don't ask him to. They line him up, send him more or less straight in the direction of the endzone, and throw the ball up in the air to him. He's 6'6", has long arms, jumps pretty well, and has a good chance of making a play. Sometimes, in the NFL, making the leap from efficient and methodical to explosive is as simple as giving your quarterback a guy or two who he can kinda force the ball to in important spots, even with an inaccurate throw, and the guy will make a play. Washington is tragically short in that department. The difference between guys like Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, Brett Favre, Philip Rivers, etc. and someone like Jason Campbell is that the "gunslingers" have a very high margin for error. In the case of Cutler and Favre, they bring part of that margin to the table with their arm strength. With Romo and Rivers, a huge part of the margin for error comes from the playmaking ability of their targets, the ability of those players to physically make up for slight mistakes or aggressive risks. Jason Campbell has a huge arm, he should be in that same group. The problem is there's virtually no margin for error in this offense or with these receivers. If someone told me at the beginning of the season that a huge-armed, extremely mobile quarterback would start every game for his 7-5 football team, complete 65% of his passes, and throw only 5 picks through 12 games, I would have guessed (in a heartbeat) that this quarterback would be closing in on 20 touchdowns and 3,000 yards. The math behind that is so easy, too: some of those completions are sure to be long touchdowns. Some of them are sure to be catch-and-run balls. Some of them are sure to be tight fits that his receivers just go up and take away from a defender. Some are sure to be screens or hitches or dump offs where his receiver makes a guy miss. For every, what, 6 completions that go for 5-7 yards, there's SURE to be a long gainer. For every 3 or 4 long gainers, there's SURE to be a score. For every sack, there's SURE to be a scramble for positive yardage or a first down that keeps a drive alive. When you've got a quarterback as talented and capable as Jason Campbell is, those seem like no-brainers.

None of this is intended to be a criticism of Jason Campbell, or even of Jim Zorn. My point here isn't to poke holes in the roster or the strategy or the staff or the playcalling or anything. Actually, all I'm saying is the tragic flaw of the 2008 Washington Redskins is that they aren't yet at the point, in their first year in this system, where they can cover for their own mistakes or they can go out and turn simple plays into big plays. Not in the passing game, anyway, and certainly not against good teams. Watching them play is agonizing for Redskins fans, because if Jason Campbell fails to connect on a first-down pass attempt, you know the Redskins need basically 8 yards on second down to have any kind of realistic chance to convert a third down, and you know that even if they do convert and get another first down, just the simple probability of them being able to do it four or five or even six more times to get into scoring position, and then coming up with another couple of perfectly called and perfectly executed plays once in scoring position, is incredibly slim. When the Redskins field a punt inside their own 30-yard line, I pretty much expect them to come away with nothing better than a field goal, and even that would be an accomplishment. Not because they're a lousy offensive team, but because the can't mis-fire at all, and they sure as hell can't mis-fire twice on the same drive and have any chance of scoring. Santana Moss is an electrifying player, but he's completely incapable of being the "toss it up there, he'll make a play" type of guy you absolutely must have in key situations.

In fact, this game had a few pretty interesting examples of this exact phenomenon. Eli Manning put up a few tough balls for his receivers; none of them were bad throws, but a few were 50-50 balls and another few were just demanding. Domenik Hixon went up and snagged a tough high throw in traffic early in the game, then came down with an extremely tough back shoulder sideline throw later in the game. Kevin Boss tore one away over the middle. These are the kinds of plays quarterbacks have to have. They have to be able to trust that their receivers can adjust to the ball and come up with a clutch catch. It helps when you have long, athletic targets like Boss, Hixon, and Amani Toomer, who often have a very real physical advantage over the guys covering them. Jason Campbell's deep ball to Antwan Randle El was another good example: yes, it was underthrown, but Randle El didn't adjust to it, didn't make a play on the ball, and sure as hell didn't just go up and take it away from anybody.

Now, a few other notes:

I'd like to exonerate Fred Smoot. His coverage on Amani Toomer was next-to-perfect. He stumbled a bit, but he was right on him stride-for-stride. Eli made a perfect throw. What can you do?

DeAngelo Hall has really good hands. Excellent hands. But he's a dismal tackler. He might be the worst tackler I've seen in a Redskins uniform since Deion Sanders. He needs to work on that.

Another dismal tackler, and I'm really, really sorry to say it, is Laron Landry. Holy shit, how in the hell does he even know where the ball carrier is? He spends more time looking at the turf of FedEx field than the grounds crew. I love the big hits, I love the guided-missile style, but he's got to pick his head up, stop going for the kill shot, find the ball-carrier, and wrap him up. A regular part of Redskins highlights these days is looking for the speeding bullet in white long sleeves diving across or underneath a ball-carrier like Superman, totally whiffing and taking himself completely out of the play. I love Laron Landry. I do. But it's getting out of control. He's got to play with his head on. He runs a long way from that deep cover-1 zone to just dive and miss.

Kevin Gilbride totally had Greg Blache's number on Sunday. The Giants ran a few of the more perfectly timed screens I've ever seen, not to mention the absolutely perfect Derrick Ward dump-off in the red-zone that led to Brandon Jacobs' touchdown plunge. Gilbride called a fantastic game.

Clinton Portis pretty clearly has no burst in his legs right now. That screen play made it painfully obvious. He was going about as slowly as I've seen him run ever. Rock Cartwright would have had more explosion. It couldn't be more obvious that the Redskins need a backup with some serious wheels to change the pace of the game now that Portis seems more like a workhorse who tops out at about 25 yards on any given carry.

The offensive line was much better on Sunday, but pass protection remains an issue. Campbell may have only been sacked twice, but he has to operate pretty damn quickly in the pocket, which is another reason the Redskins can't seem to get a big pass off.

That's all for this game. I'm about ready to write up the 2008 Washington Redskins. I think I totally get it now. I'm very proud of their winning record and excited about their future, but compared to other playoff caliber teams, they have a very slim margin for error and a pretty low ceiling in their current configuration. For years I've said I'd be happy with a hard-working, sharp, functional team with likable players and an innovative coach. That's what I now have, and sure enough, I'm pretty damn happy about it.

Tampa Bay over New Orleans, 23-20
My Pick: Tampa Bay over New Orleans, 31-29
There were at least two non-Redskins teams that seriously disappointed in must-win type games on Sunday. Buffalo was one, New Orleans was the other. They outgained the Bucs, held onto the ball longer, had more first downs, converted a far higher number and percentage of third downs, registered a greater number of sacks, were more efficient in the red-zone, and had fewer fumbles. The difference? Drew friggin' Brees, who chose just about the worst possible time to torpedo his MVP campaign. Drew Brees and penalties. It kinda rhymes if you say it just right.

That was a big win for the Bucs. They played poorly on offense, especially in the passing game, but they earned a typical Tampa Bay style victory, where it's impossible to know how it happened and you come away hating them all the more and even less confident in their chances of actually doing anything in the playoffs. Still, a win is a win, and they're still atop the NFC South. Good for them.

Carolina over Green Bay, 35-31
My Pick: Carolina over Green Bay, 31-29
Did I nail it or what? Man was that a solid pick!

DeAngelo Williams, y'all. Hey, anybody else notice how I spell the name DeAngelo the same way for everyone, regardless of how it might actually be spelled? I can do that. Know why? Because nobody's reading this piece of shit anyhow.

Two things . . . well, three: first, can we finally write off the goddamn Packers. I like this team, but they're out of it. Fork 'em. They find ways to lose. One week it's turnovers. The next it's bad defense. They don't have it this year. Second, folks in Green Bay probably still feel like they have a good team, and it's true. At every position except tailback the Packers have quality players they can hang onto. Next season, they'll be right back at the top of the North. Third, I'm not looking at or listening to any media coverage of anything sports related this week, so I won't be able to confirm this guess, but I'd wager the 5-7 Packers are ranked higher than the 7-5 Redskins in ESPN's Power Rankings after week 13. Those bastards love a talented young white quarterback. That's not meant to be a knock against Aaron Rodgers, who might be my second favorite quarterback in the NFL. My money's on this, though: if the Redskins were 5-7, had no running game and a mediocre, underperforming defense, folks around Washington would be all sunny as hell if there was a goofy white kid under center putting up 290 yards and 2 scores every Sunday. Chicks dig the passing game. NFL fans have gone all retarded. Fantasy Football is ruining our collective football savvy.

Atlanta over San Diego, 22-16
My Pick: Atlanta over San Diego, 28-23
Thank God that debacle is over. And of course, by "debacle" I'm referring to the 2008 San Diego Chargers. What a joke. 16 points at home in a must-win game is one thing, but coming out completely flat and lifeless and not giving a damn, that's unforgivable. And it's about what you'd expect from a Norv Turner team.

And the Falcons have now officially morphed into a terrifying NFL monster. They went from being plucky and competitive to the kind of team you confidently pick to win an opponent's must-win game at home. Roddy White is a legit number one NFL receiver. In fact, Roddy White is now what Chad Johnson was and ought to have stayed: a long, speedy guy who has a ton of success on deep balls and out-routes and has a ton of chemistry with his quarterback. If White can stay humble, he could be a long-term hero in Atlanta and turn in a fine NFL career. Michael Turner is a horse, he's definitely the guy, and it speaks to the character of Turner and especially Jerrius Norwood that those guys are as content as they are in complementing each other. Matt Ryan is a beast. Their offensive line is coming together. They're getting good production from other offensive weapons. The defense is improving every week. This Falcons team is very, very good.

The Chargers, on the other hand, are garbage. They're like the Sith version of the Falcons, spoiled and wasted. They've got complimentary backs but don't use them that way. They've got a sharp young passer, but he's too cocky and brash for his own good. They've got long, fast, talented receivers, but they don't show up and don't produce. The offensive line underperforms. The defense is dazed and sluggish. They're the football equivalent of Jose Canseco: a flashy, attractive package that only knows how to swing for the fences, can't do any of the little things, is utterly hollow, totally overrated, and completely air-headed. I hate the Chargers.

Denver over New York Jets, 34-17
My Pick: New York Jets over Denver, 41-21
I was way wrong about this one. The Jets are fake. They had a great run there, they're certainly dangerous, and maybe they have enough juice to get hot again, stay a contender, and make a run. On the other hand, I actually feel like the more time this team spends together, the more the rest of the NFL will figure them out, and the more their weaknesses will be exposed.

As for Denver, hey, they're that much closer to securing the division crown, and this at least looks like a legitimate win. The Jets were the hottest team in football and the Broncos took 'em down in New York. That's an accomplishment. These might be two of my least favorite teams in football, but that doesn't make this any less impressive a win.

Pittsburgh over New England, 33-10
My Pick: New England over Pittsburgh, 24-23
Wrong here, too. And I'm now about ready to buy the 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers. They owned the be-Jesus out of the Patriots. This was a back-alley ass-kicking. I guess we can all hop off the Matt Cassel bandwagon right about now. He was worse than garbage. He was garbage juice. 2 picks, 2 fumbles, 169 yards in 39 attempts, less than 50% passing. Ouch.

This was a big statement for Pittsburgh. Week 14's Dallas/Pittsburgh match-up should be hugely entertaining.

Kansas City over Oakland, 20-13
My Pick: Oakland over Kansas City, 75-72
If the NFL were Chinese and we lived in the 19th century, everyone associated with the Oakland Raiders and all their fans would have to march out to the town square and cram long, sharp swords into their own hearts. Losing to the Chiefs is like having sex with a dead body or something. Anyway, it's bad. Especially when it happens at home.

Minnesota over Chicago, 34-14
My Pick: Minnesota over Chicago, 37-27
Full disclosure: the only reason I picked the Vikings was because I needed a home team. My reasoning was sound, though; I picked against the Bears because NFC North games almost never end with the better team winning. Most of the time, the better team plays too conservatively and the crappier team plays bitter, vengeful football. Minnesota won because they're not the better team. Only in the NFC North.

Houston over Jacksonville, 30-17
My Pick: Houston over Jacksonville, 24-21
Now there's a team that's quit on the season and tuned out the head coach. Jacksonville had no interest whatsoever in competing on Monday night. This was a 23-3 football game, and it should have stayed that way. Jacksonville put a few meaningless scores up in the final 5 minutes, but it was way, way, way over before then. Houston dominated Jacksonville. Houston doesn't dominate anybody. They don't dominate their own practice squad. Jacksonville effing sucks. What a huge, huge disappointment this season has been for the Jaguars. There isn't a single part of this football team that has performed well this season. Not one unit, not one player, not one coach, not one strategy, nothing. The running game has been mediocre at best. David Garrard has been a non-factor for all but about 10 minutes of this season. The defense took an enormous step backwards. The receiving corps, loaded as it is with talented guys, hasn't looked like the same unit from one game to the next, owing at least in part to the fact that the coaches seem hell bent on playing musical chairs with the wide-outs. Jacksonville's playcalling and offensive identity have been abysmal since week 1. The Jaguars are a 'roided out, macho-facade having butter-soft, spineless, noncompetitive train-wreck. Booooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!


That, folks, is my whole week 13 recap, started at 10am Tuesday morning and finished 98 minutes later. I'll have some picks up by Thursday afternoon, and I'll maybe throw in an extra or something for good measure.

Peace!

Playoffs, Anyone?

Your NFC Playoff Picture for 2008:

NFC Regular Season Champs
New York Giants
Headed down the home stretch, the Giants win 3 of their final 5 games to finish an NFC-best 13-3, securing the top seed in the NFC playoffs.

NFC South Champs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
At 11-5, the Bucs take the competitive NFC South by a game over Carolina and secure the NFC's second seed by winning 3 of their final 5 games, including a week 17 snore-fest at home against Oakland.

NFC West Champs
Arizona Cardinals
Despite ESPN's best efforts to convince us otherwise, by the start of the playoffs most fans will have figured out that the Cardinals were only good enough to win 10 games despite playing in the weakest overall division in football. The Cardinals finish up with 3 of four games at home, and sweep all three.

NFC North Champs
Chicago Bears
The Bears finish in a tie at 9-7 with the Vikings, have an identical division record and a tie in head to head match-ups, but a better conference record gives them the nod and the NFC's fourth seed. Chicago's in with home-wins over Jacksonville, New Orleans, and Green Bay sandwiched between week 13 and week 17 losses to Minnesota and Houston, respectively.

NFC Wild Card
Washington Redskins
Washington finds itself in a wild-card spot despite an 11-5 record. Washington's in after splitting their series against fellow east-coast playoff contenders New York and Baltimore, and then finishing strong with 3 straight wins over doormats Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and San Francisco.

NFC Wild Card
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas finishes strong with 5 wins in their last 7 games, including impressive home victories over the Giants and Ravens in consecutive weeks. 10-6 is good enough to get them in over Carolina by virtue of a much better conference mark.

We Can't Fucking Believe We're on the Outside!
Carolina Panthers
10-6 isn't good enough for a wild-card, and the fifth and sixth losses come back-to-back in road losses to the Giants and Saints in the final two weeks. It's enough to save John Fox's job, but not enough to get them in the postseason.

Atlanta Falcons
The miraculous 2008 season of the Atlanta Falcons comes to an end after they drop 3 of their final 5, including road losses in San Diego, New Orleans, and Minnesota. A week 17 demolition of the Rams in Atlanta is good for style points, but ultimately comes too late to secure the final wild-card slot. Mike Smith goes on to win Coach of the Year.

Minnesota Vikings
Will 9-7 be enough to save Brad Childress' job? Wait and see. Minnesota dumps Chicago, Detroit, and Atlanta, but can't get past the Cardinals in Arizona, nor the Giants in New York. Either win would have secured them a division title and put them past the wild-card. Maybe Childress gets dumped after all.

New Orleans Saints
The Saints finish strong, winning 3 of 5 including consecutive home wins over Detroit and Carolina to end the season, making them the fourth team in the NFC South to finish the season above .500. 9-7 isn't enough for the post-season, but Sean Payton is safe for now.

Green Bay Packers
Even down the home stretch, with the playoffs within reach, the Packers can't string wins together and wind up dropping consecutive road games in Jacksonville and Chicago, setting up a meaningless home obliteration of the Lions in week 17. 8-8 might be a decent record, but in this wacky 2008 season, it lands the Packers 11th overall in the NFC.

Philadelphia Eagles
8-7-1 might be the kind of garbage Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid argue is a successful season in the NFC, but it won't save either of their jobs. A 12th place finish in the NFC and that embarrassing tie with Cincinnati are too much to overcome. Down the stretch, Philly dumps Arizona and Dallas in impressive fashion, but goes on the road and gets throttled in both New York and Washington, dropping their division record to 1-5.

Garbage! Human Garbage!
St. Louis Rams
The Rams muster a decent stretch after absorbing their 5th straight loss in week 15, dropping both Seattle and San Francisco in St. Louis before losing their 12th game of the season in the final week, a one-sided mauling in Atlanta.

San Francisco 49ers
The Niners tune Mike Singletary all the way out down the home stretch and drop every game left on their schedule, including a demoralizing, season-ending home destruction at the hands of a desperate Redskins team. A 3-13 record and a nasty season-ending stretch ensures the good folks in charge of the franchise don't ask Singletary back.

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle plays just as poorly down the stretch as they have all season, lose every remaining game, and send Mike Holmgren into retirement on a sour note. Seattle's 2-14 record will at least get Jim Mora Jr. a high draft pick to start his tenure.

Detroit Lions
The Lions do the unthinkable, finishing the 2008 regular season with an 0-16 record. Virtually everything in the organization is scrapped and replaced headed into 2009.


And now, the AFC:

AFC Regular Season Champs
Tennessee Titans
A week 13 tune up against the awful Lions gets the Titans back on track, and they pound out 4 consecutive wins before shutting it down mid-way through a week 17 match-up against the desperate Colts. 14 wins give the Titans a narrow conference lead over the surging Jets and earn them homefield throughout.

AFC East Champs
New York Jets
The Jets continue their dominant run, adding five more consecutive wins down the stretch to finish the season. With road games in San Francisco and Seattle, New York's only real challanges come in home games against division rivals Buffalo and Miami. The Jets win both and cruise to a decisive AFC East crown.

AFC North Champs
Baltimore Ravens
An incredibly unlikely regular season ends with a division title and a trip to the postseason for the 11-5 Ravens, who surge through the final 5 weeks with only a single loss, in Dallas in week 16. A hard-fought week 15 home win over division rival Pittsburgh puts Baltimore in the driver's seat, and they hold on to finish the season. John Harbaugh would win Coach of the Year in any other season, but comes in a close second to Mike Smith.

AFC West Champs
San Diego Chargers
Thanks to tough home wins over Atlanta and Denver and a pair of back-to-back patsies in weeks 14 and 15, the awful, terrible, underachieving Chargers stumble to shameful division title and spot in the playoffs at 8-8. After a short stay in the playoffs, the Chargers clean house, dumping their coaching staff and General Manager A. J. Smith.

AFC Wild Card
Indianapolis Colts
After struggling much of the season to hang around .500 and stay in the hunt, the Colts put it together down the stretch and come away with a stron 11-5 record, good for second in the AFC South and a wild-card spot. The schedule down the stretch is favorable, and the Colts clean up against doormats Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Detroit before splitting their final two games against Jacksonville and Tennessee.

AFC Wild Card
New England Patriots
A strong push to end the regular season earns New England an 11-5 mark and the final AFC playoff spot. With tough home wins over Pittsburgh and Arizona sandwiched around pushover road victories against Seattle and Oakland, the Patriots are able to stay ahead of the Steelers and Dolphins, even with a week 17 loss in Buffalo to end the regular season.

This Shit is So Unfair!
Pittsburgh Steelers
Before they know it, the Steelers suddenly find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture despite a decent 10-6 record, making them the second AFC North team in two season to miss the playoffs after winning 10 games. Pittsburgh is only able to pound out wins against Dallas and Cleveland at home in their final five, dropping road dates in New England, Baltimore, and Tennessee.

Miami Dolphins
An incredible season comes to an end in Miami with the Dolphins on the outside of the playoff picture despite a 9-7 mark. Miami finishes strong, winning 3 of 5 games, but crucial road division losses at Buffalo and New York ultimately seal the deal.

Buffalo Bills
Like the NFC South, the AFC East finds all four teams above .500, as even the last-place Bills manage a 9-7 record by winning 3 of their final 5. While crummy San Diego is getting drilled in the wild-card round, two very good AFC East teams are watching from home.

Denver Broncos
The up-and-down season comes to an end with the Broncos losing a tie-breaker to the Chargers in the AFC West and well-outside the wild-card picture. The Broncos controlled their own destiny but choked down the stretch, dropping road games against the Jets, the Panthers, and tha Chargers to finish 8-8.

Hideous, Horrible Atrocities
Jacksonville Jaguars
The struggles continue, with the Jags dropping 3 of their final 5 games of the season to finish 6-10. Two impressive home wins over Indianapolis and Green Bay show what this team is capable of, but disappointing road losses to Houston, Chicago, and Baltimore keep Jacksonville well on the outside of the playoff picture.

Houston Texans
2008 must be seen as a step backward for the 6-10 Texans, despite showing continued growth on the offensive side of the ball and some promise on defense. Houston sandwiches three straight losses between a pair of home victories and lands near the bottom of the AFC yet again.

Cleveland Browns
Major changes follow the finish of a disappointing 5-11 season in Cleveland. The Browns manage only a single win in their final five games, an unwatchable mess of a home victory over the hapless Cincinnati Bengals.

Oakland Raiders
The Raiders manage to finish relatively strong (for them) winning 2 of 5, with home victories over the Chiefs and Texans. Tom Cable will not return as Oakland's head coach in 2009.

Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals continue their dismal decline all the way until week 17, when an embarrassing home date against the equally abysmal Kansas City Chiefs gives them their second win of the 2008 season. Somehow, someway, it's enough for Marvin Lewis to keep his job.

Kansas City Chiefs
The less said about this mess, the better. Kansas City loses every game the rest of the way, including 3 straight division contests to finish 1-15. Amid threats of major rioting in downtown Kansas City, the organization reluctantly fires the worst coach in NFL history and smartly deals away the second overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft.

There you have it, folks. I looked into my crystal ball and that's how it'll all end up.

Actually, the formula was simple: good teams won their home games. Bad teams only won home games against other bad teams. I did the same thing last season and got every playoff team except one. I had the 10-6 Browns in over the Titans, but the Browns fell short. In other words, it may be imperfect, but it came damn close once and that's good enough for now. If it sucks ass in 2008, I'll come up with something better for 2009.

Go Skynards!

Week 13 Pix

Here we go!

Tennessee @ Detroit
The Line: Tennessee by 11
Detroit is dead meat on Thursday. Like a turkey. Get it?

It's a funny thing about sports: when you have a disappointing loss, you're allowed to get "revenge" on the next sad-sack piece of shit team you play. There's something horribly wrong, yet terribly funny about Detroit getting beat up and humiliated as "revenge" for the Jets winning in Tennessee.

I'll say this, though: Tennessee hasn't been playing their best football for weeks now. Objectively, without taking a grand view of their record, I don't think they're actually one of the three or four best teams in the NFL. At their best, they're a team that can dominate defensively, run the ball extremely well, and not turn the ball over in the passing game. Pittsburgh, at their best, is all that plus 350 yards passing and 3 touhdowns. The same can be said of the Jets, the Giants, the Panthers, even the Cowboys. I'm not saying the Cowboys are better than the Titans, not in a million years. Alls I'm saying is the Titans have been primed for getting exposed for a few weeks now, and it finally happened. They need to get their mojo back, and they couldn't be in a better position than traveling to Detroit on Thanksgiving to ream the be-Jesus out of the awful, train-wreck Lions. It should be ugly.
Titans over Lions, 27-10

Seattle @ Dallas
The Line: Dallas by 12.5
Seattle can expect to have something brown crammed up their gaping asses. Like stuffing in a turkey. Get it?

Hey, who wants to take bets on whether or not Seattle will follow San Francisco's lead and give Terrell Owens 10 yards of space at the line of scrimmage on Thursday?

Actually, that could be an interesting thing to watch in this game, now that I think about it. Dallas had a big offensive explosion on Sunday, and if you weren't watching closely, it might seem like they solved all their offensive woes against the Niners. On the other hand, as I mentioned in my week 12 recap, they didn't run the ball well at all and Tony Romo actually wasn't sharp at all except for his deep connections with Owens. So what happens when Marcus Trufant starts the game in T.O.'s grill, disrupts him at the line, and Seattle's still-pretty-decent pass rush bears down on Romo while he looks for his other options? I guess what I'm saying here is the Cowboys will probably take a page from the Redskins versus Seattle and load up on Marion Barber's back. It's a good strategy. If they don't do it, who knows, this could be an interesting game. There's no way Dallas' defense is as good as Washington's. I'm just saying, keep an eye on this game. With as well as San Fransisco moved the ball against Dallas on Sunday, if they hadn't given up T.O.'s wet dream, they would have been in that game.

I'm predicting a Dallas blowout. But I'm putting it out there, just in case.
Cowboys over Seahawks, 34-20

Arizona @ Philadelphia
The Line: Philadelphia by 3
A win here wraps up the division for Arizona, so every win after this game would be . . . you got it, gravy. Like on a turkey. Get it?

I'm so tempted to take Arizona. Philadelphia has been so, so bad in their last two games, especially on offense. Baltimore's defense will do that to you, but Cincinnati? Not so much. Arizona is somewhere between the two, but they've got this going for them: they pressure the pocket well and they hit. I also kinda like the idea of this being a revenge game for Arizona, coming off their first loss at home and their third against the NFC East (that's right, we own your ass, motherfuckers). I like the idea of them going to Philadelphia, in front of an ornery, half-dead Philly crowd as angry at the home team as they are hungry for a victory, and pulverizing the Eagles into a chunky sludge. Like mashed potatoes. If there's anybody stupid enough to think the Eagles could still challenge for something this season, that'd be the end of that. I really want that to happen.

In order for Arizona to win, first, they need to protect Kurt Warner and make Donovan McNabb work in the pocket. If they can get a running game going, so much the better. I really like their chances. I've been sucked into believing in the 2008 Cardinals, but that will go into serious doubt if they can't take care of business against a wounded, flailing Philly team just begging to be euthanized. Euthanized and rubbed with butter, stuffed with bread, roasted to 155 degrees for the white meat and 185 for the dark, then carved and slathered with delicious gravy. Like a turkey.

Philly could win. Sure. But who knows what Philly team is going to show up. I know this: if McNabb struggles early and that crowd gets to booing, forget about the Eagles. McNabb is so ready to make it official in Philadelphia, no way he's battling both the Cardinals and the home crowd four days after being benched for the first time in his career. Forget that.

Hey, know what? Because they're favored, I'm calling it an upset special. Cards win!
Cardinals over Eagles, 27-21

San Francisco @ Buffalo
The Line: Buffalo by 7
Now here's a game to not care about. Buffalo might technically still be in the hunt for a wild card. Hell, they might technically have a shot at the division. That don't mean shit to me. I'm more or less done with the Bills in 2008.

Now, if they were to run up another shameful obliteration on Sunday, that might change things. They endured a truly nauseating 5-game losing streak that pretty much crushed their momentum and threw the whole organization into doubt, and the only way back from such a devastating blow might be a pair of back-to-back gruesome annihilations. If the Bills fight back to 7-5 behind a pair of resounding dominations, they might just recover enough swagger to make it a sprint to the finish of the regular season.

And they could flatten the Niners. As every week passes, the Niners have less and less to play for. They got pounded pretty good on Sunday, this is the second of two consecutive road games, and this one is all the way across the country in colder 'n hell Buffalo.

Alright, so here's the pick: Buffalo is favored by 7. San Francisco is sure to be worn out, so they probably won't do much on offense. It'll be cold, so Buffalo probably won't be up for another 50-point explosion. Buffalo by 7, fairly low scoring.
Bills over 49ers, 17-10

Baltimore @ Cincinnati
The Line: Baltimore by 7
I think this'll be another wipe out. Cincinnati is terrible.

Baltimore could probably win this game even if, instead of playing offense, they just punted the ball back to Cincinnati on every first down.

I really don't have anything to say about this game. Baltimore will win.
Ravens over Bengals, 23-14

Indianapolis @ Cleveland
The Line: Indianapolis by 4.5
Look who the Colts have beaten in their 4-game winning streak: the Chargers in San Diego, the Texans at home (just beat the Browns in Cleveland), the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and New England at home. What chance do the goddamn Browns have? None. Zero chance.

Indianapolis is rolling. Or, at any rate, they're doing what could be called rolling when you're as banged up and rusty as the Colts currently are. They're bouncing. Rumbling.

Cleveland needs to focus first on just getting some kind of offensive rhythm going. Where has the running game gone? Why wouldn't the Browns be able to run the ball against the Texans? Why would Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson play so, so poorly against Houston's defense? The Browns need something positive. A home win over the Colts would be very positive. Since that isn't going to happen, they'll have to settle for trying to put together a respectable offensive showing. Indy's defense isn't very strong. Give the fans something to be happy about. Complete some passes, run the ball at least a little bit, score a few touchdowns. You'll lose, but dammit, look respectable when you do it.
Colts over Browns, 29-21

Miami @ St. Louis
The Line: Miami by 8
You know, I'm not having a hard time with these picks. I see Miami going hog-wild in St. Louis.

I could be wrong. I've already picked 4 road teams. Generally speaking, that's lunacy. Still, how the hell do you pick the Rams? I can't identify a single thing this team does well. They don't run well, they don't protect, the don't pass well, the defense is just awful, and they have a way of getting flat-out annihilated in the first half of football games. Miami, on the other hand, hey, they're due a little pay-it-forward revenge too, aren't they? What's a good term for that? Forevenge? Miami is out for forevenge.

So I like the Dolphins.
Dolphins over Rams, 23-17

New York Giants @ Washington
The Line: New York Giants by 3.5
Here it is, folks. If there's a little pendulum that swings to and fro and determines things like revenge, forevenge, karma, etc., here's where it breaks, no shatters, and utterly betrays the Washington Redskins. The Redskins want revenge for week 1. They're also due some forevenge for 2 straight home losses in big games. They didn't get caught looking ahead in Seattle. Generally, that's a good sign. And none of it will matter, not even a little bit. Because the Redskins are going down. They're going down hard.

Look, I think we've established that I love the Redskins. I love them too much, perhaps. I love the Redskins like I hate the AFC West. And it's because of this love that I need to lay this one out early and honestly. If I go into this game with even a little hope that the Redskins will win, I will probably not be alive come Monday morning.

I'm extremely proud of the 2008 Washington Redskins. They're nothing if not overachievers. I love their discipline, I love their attitude, I really respect their humble, tortoise-like determination. I love an underdog, and the Redskins are good, lovable underdogs. The problem, in this match-up, is the Redskins might be a bit too tortoise-like. The Giants are not the hare. The Giants are the fully-loaded 18-wheeler. If the Redskins come out like humble, lovable tortoises against the Giants, they'll get smeared up 300 yards of interstate.

I'm hesitant to invoke the emotion of the Sean Taylor ceremony in calculating my final score. On the one hand, it's just possible that the emotion of the moment will lift the Redskins crowd and their performance to another level. On the other hand, it's extremely tacky to hope for such a thing, and I cannot and will not include any such thing in my expectations for the way this team plays on Sunday. The fact is, Sean Taylor was a real guy who really died, and he really was a friend and teammate to these guys. They're allowed to process that information any way they end up doing it. Now, I'm not giving them a pre-emptive excuse for a loss, but I'll say this: if my friend died, and a year later I showed up to work after a memorial service and had a shite day because I was all emotionally fucked up, well, screw you if you have a problem with that.

So here it is: if Washington wants any chance of winning this game, they absolutely must win the line of scrimmage. Running the ball well will be essential, if only because it'll keep the Giants from pinning their ears back in the defensive front. In the passing game, it would be a very good time to work in a healthy dose of the screens, slip-screens, draw plays, shovel passes, and play-fakes that have been peppered into Washington's play-calling through 11 games. I can't stress this enough, Washington cannot be in many long must-pass situations, especially not if they're behind. And the only way they can expect to hit any long pass plays is if they manage to frustrate or discourage New York's pass-rush. For that to happen, they need to run the ball well, or at least often, and they need to slow the rush by hitting quick plays behind it.

Defensively, hey, know what? I'm not all that worried about New York's offense. It's time for Washington's defense to get a little respect, dammit. The Redskins have the NFL's third ranked defense, better than New York. They're better against the pass and only 5 yards worse against the run. Washington's defense will do a respectable job if healthy. If they can give the offense a short field a few times and maybe force a turnover or two, hey, then they've really given themselves a chance.

It's also important that the Redskins not come out slow again. They've been bad in the first quarter on offense for a few weeks now. It's especially bad because Washington's defense has been at it's best, or at least it's feistiest, in the early part of games. For Washington to have a chance, they need their defense to come out fired up and win the line of scrimmage in the early part of the game, and they need their offense to take advantage. If they can put the Giants in a hole and take away the run a little bit, they'll give themselves an even better chance.

Okay, to keep from talking myself into picking the Redskins, I'm going to stop now. The Giants are going to win the game. Hopefully it won't be too bad a blowout.
Giants over Redskins, 20-13

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
The Line: Tampa Bay by 3.5
This is an interesting game. Let's get one thing out of the way: I'll be rooting like a mad-man for the Saints. Yes, I'm sick of them. No, I don't want them in the playoffs. But I just don't like those Bucs, and I'd rather the Panthers win the South, and I'd rather the Bucs lose out and miss the playoffs.

Last time these teams met, in week 1, the Saints pulled out a close, relatively low-scoring game in which Brees put up another damn efficient outing, going 23 of 32 for 343 yards, 3 scores, and a pick. I think it's safe to say he won't be too befuddled by the Tampa-2. And this game obviously means a lot more to the Saints than the Bucs. On the other hand, horrible old Brian Griese was starting at quarterback for the Bucs in week 1. Tampa's offense is . . . what, 100 times better with Jeff Garcia back there?

Just when I think it might be possible to pick the Saints, there's this, and this really made the decision for me: the Saints are 1-4 on the road in 2008, whereas the Bucs are 5-0 at home. No way in hell I'm picking New Orleans, one of the NFL's worst "good" road teams, to beat one of the NFL's 3 undefeated home teams. Forget it.
Bucs over Saints, 31-29

Carolina @ Green Bay
The Line: Green Bay by 3
Ah, fuck this game.

The Panthers have a tough road to the playoffs, now that they're in second place in the NFC South. That loss to the Falcons was a killer. Check this out: the Panthers have 3 road games left on their schedule: at Green Bay this week, at the Giants in week 16, and at New Orleans in week 17. They'll probably be underdogs in all three. Their two remaining home games are against the 8-3 Bucs and the 6-5 Broncos. By my math, for Carolina to win the South, they need to win 3 of those games and have the Bucs drop 3 of 5. Again, by my math, if the Panthers finish at 10-6, they will not get a wild-card berth. That's how I worked it out. I'll show you my math later, but there it is. A week ago, this was maybe the third best team in the NFL; now, they need to win one of three extremely tough road games and sweep two tough home games and get help from Tampa Bay to win the South, and if they don't win one of those road games or somehow drop a home game, they're all the way out of the playoffs. The NFC is friggin' bananas in 2008. I have a 10-6 and three 9-7s not making the playoffs from the NFC. Nuts.

So this is a huge game for Carolina. If they can find a way to go into Green Bay and come out with a win, it won't be smooth sailing by any stretch of the imagination, but it'll give them more of a margin for error in those final two weeks of the season when they travel to two more playoff hopefuls.

As for Green Bay, look, if they want any chance of winning the NFC North, they basically can't afford to drop more than one more game the rest of the way. They play 3 of 5 at home, and this is the toughest of the three. A loss here doesn't necessarily wrap it up, but do they really want to be in a situation of having to win out just to have a chance? Green Bay hasn't been able to put together any kind of solid stretch all year, and in order for them to have even a hope of making the playoffs, they'll need one to finish the regular season. It starts Sunday afternoon!

I have no faith in Jake Delhomme. He's killing the Panthers lately. Drew Brees made mincemeat out of Green Bay's tough secondary. Jake Delhomme ain't no Drew Brees. If Delhomme doesn't break out of his funk and start protecting the ball, the Panthers will lose this game and it'll be damn close to panic time in Carolina.

Here's how I see this game going: the Packers are going to have to sling the ball a lot, because it's extremely unlikely that Ryan Grant is going to do much against (anyone ever) Carolina's run defense. If the Packers can get up early and force the Panthers away from the running game, it'll be all she wrote for Carolina. On the other hand, if Aaron Rodgers turns the ball over or takes some hits or can't find a rhythm, and Carolina is able to use their running game to keep Green Bay's offense on the bench, it could get really ugly for the Packers. You saw what happened on Monday night when they had to do a lot of scoring in a hurry. It wasn't pretty, and the Saints defense is nothing like Carolina's.

I'm reluctant to give the edge to the team that won't be able to run the ball, is under .500, and just gave up 51 points to a team I don't take seriously at all. I like the Packers. I'd prefer they win the game. But they've been killing my picks pretty much all season, and I think I'm done picking them for a while. I'd rather they win, but the safe pick is Carolina, even on the road.
Panthers over Packers, 27-23

Atlanta @ San Diego
The Line: San Diego by 5.5
San Diego's defense is crap. Atlanta has a strong, two-headed monster of a running game, a solid, big-play passing game, they're stingy with the ball, they take advantage of opportunities, and they get good field position from having a pretty damn underrated defense and good special teams. Atlanta is the anti-San Diego: they're perhaps the NFL's biggest overachievers. God, karma, and Santa Claus all want Atlanta to win this game. So do I.

And I think they will. ESPN and some other parts of the national sports media may not have caught on yet, but even Jay Novacek (worst NFL analyst of all time) has finally realized that the San Diego Chargers aren't even a little bit better than their record. San Diego has the same record as Houston, the same record as Cleveland, the same record as Jacksonville. They're only a game better than Oakland. And that's who they are. They stink. At home, on the road, in division, out of division, in and out of the AFC, they're crap. They're poorly coached, they're apathetic, they're overrated, they don't do anything especially well, and they buy into their own hype more than any other team in the NFL other than Dallas.

I fully expect Atlanta to win this game. I see them running the ball well, working the play-action passing game, getting after it on special teams, winning both lines of scrimmage, and generally just hustling more and wanting it more than San Diego. San Diego, led by Norv Turner (and all his excuses) and the smirking Philip Rivers, doesn't have the heart to battle a character team like the Falcons.

At least, that's how I hope it goes. I'm not fooling myself, though; the Chargers still have some talent on offense and they are at home and they could win. The thing is, on a neutral field I'd probably pick Atlanta to win 9 of 10 games. Here's the funny part: though Atlanta is on the east coast and San Diego is a dismal west-to-east team, I'd actually like San Diego's chances more in Atlanta, even as well as the Falcons play at home. Why? Because one of the big problems with this Chargers team is how flat they are. It's a hallmark of a Norv Turner team. At home, they expect to win. They expect it to be easy. They're not prepared to come out and fly around and kick the shit out of somebody for four full quarters. On the road, in hostile Atlanta, I'd expect those few players on the Chargers with any pride to be at least a little fired up, in spite of Turner's best efforts, just by the challenge of it all. In San Diego, I expect the Falcons to be hungier, sharper, more focused, and better prepared. I lived all the way through Turner's tenure in Washington, I remember all too well how flat his teams were at home, even in big games. They were also flat on the road, sure, but at home it was sometimes like they were drugged or in a daze. They'd float around like zombies with puzzled looks on their faces, they'd be sucking wind and reeling by the end of the first half, and generally speaking, Norv was powerless to get them to adjust or sober up for more than one good drive in the second half. Against hungry, tough, sharp teams, it was never enough.

So I'm picking the Falcons, on the road, all the way across the country. They're always tougher, always sharper, always hungier, always more prepared. And then there's that Norv Turner edge.
Falcons over Chargers, 28-23

Now, before I go a single pick further, I'd like to point out that I've now picked 8 of 11 possible road teams. Have the wheels come all the way off my 2008 NFL picks? What the hell's going on here? I'm tempted, very, VERY tempted, to go back and reverse my pick on that Carolina/Green Bay game. Maybe the Arizona/Philly game. Maybe even the Atlanta/San Diego pick I just made. This is a friggin' debacle. I'm going down in flames in week 13.

Denver @ New York Jets
The Line: New York Jets by 8
Here's one I don't have to worry about. I'll be shocked if the Jets lose this game. There's always the "trap game" possibility, after such a huge road win in week 12. It's possible. Jay Cutler could get hot again. You never know.

I really don't care about this game at all. I bullshitted my way through 5 paragraphs of Falcons/Chargers, I earned the right to give the finger to this massacre-in-the-making.
Jets over Broncos, 41-21

Pittsburgh @ New England
The Line: New England by 1
Pittsburgh would love to get sweet, sweet revenge on this Patriots team for whupping 'em pretty good in what was supposed to be a competitive game in 2007. And I do think the Steelers are not just a much better team than in 2007, but a much better team than even 4 weeks ago. They've tinkered around with their passing game to take some pressure off their offensive line, and it's helping open things up for Ben Roethlisberger.

Weather will not be a factor in this game, no matter how cold or blustery it ends up being. Pittsburgh plays in a goddamn nuthouse of elements at Hines Field. A game in Antarctica would be favorable. Ultimately, Pittsburgh's defense is charged with the same task they failed miserably at last season; find a way to address New England's spread offense. The 3-4 is good at a lot of things, but defending 4 and 5 receiving options ain't one of them. If they can't get pressure on Matt Cassel before he gets comfortable dumping the ball off, they'll be in trouble.

Now, I happen to be more intimidated by Pittsburgh's defense than just about any in football. I have tons of faith in their ability to push around just about any offense in football. It will not surprise me at all if Matt Cassel implodes utterly under the pressure he's sure to face Sunday afternoon. In order for me to pick the Steelers (another road team), though, I'd have to be pretty damn certain whatever they have planned to take away New England's offense is superior to whatever Josh McRoberts and Bill Belichick have cooked up to confuse and attack the other way. I'm not certain. Not at all. Not after the way New England shredded to smithereens Miami's 3-4 on Sunday.

So I'm picking the Patriots. Again, I'm rooting against this pick, but I think the Pats are a safe pick at home.
Patriots over Steelers, 24-23

Kansas City @ Oakland
The Line: Oakland by 3
I thought about checking to see when either of these teams was last favored in a game. Then I thought about looking at stats or records or doing any sort of actual thinking about the match-up so as to make an educated pick. But you know what? This is possibly the worst game left on the NFL schedule in 2008, and I can't waste even 10 minutes coming up with this pick. I'm taking the home team by the spread, and I don't care, and I'm not watching the highlights unless a comet rockets down into Oakland and obliterates the stadium.
Raiders over Chiefs, 75-72

Chicago @ Minnesota
The Line: Minnesota by 3.5
Here's the thing: I think Chicago is ten times better than Minnesota. Better coach, better quarterback, better special teams, more cohesive, better. Just better.

I'm picking the Vikings, and here's why: because Chicago is better and I want them to win the North, but they play in the North, which means they aren't clutch and won't ever take care of business. Because the Vikings are phony and fatally flawed but they play in the North too, so they're sure to stick a thorn in the side of the better team and throw the whole thing into a blender for another few weeks.

And these teams will probably combine for 200 points.
Vikings over Bears, 37-27

Jacksonville over Houston
The Line: Houston by 3
Don't know, don't care. I never would have predicted that a week 13 Monday night game between two AFC South teams would be completely irrelevant. Well, here it is.
Home team by 3.
Texans over Jaguars, 24-21

I'll have more later in the week. I actually did the whole playoff math thing I did last year, I've got it all on paper. I'll post in before Sunday. It's really wacky, and if it turns out to be correct, I will officially be the greatest genius of all time.

Go Skynards!

Week 12 in Review

What a bullshit weekend of NFL games. As a football fan, I'm insulted by Sunday's results. Taking out the Washington/Seattle and Indianapolis/San Diego games, the average margin of defeat was over 18 points per game. Winning teams in those games averaged an absurd 35 points. In short, it was a full slate of one-sided massacres. Maybe other NFL fans feel differently, but I hate that kind of thing. I like a game that features two teams playing well. I can handle a good team throttling a bad team, but that should be a rarity. I could totally throw back this kind of football Sunday, when most games are over by halftime, and the only people with a reason to continue watching are fantasy football nerds.

And with that rousing introduction, let's dive into the recap.

Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, 27-10
My Pick: Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, 31-13
This was nothing but a cold-blooded sniper shot. The Bengals are wounded, struggling to get their feet under them, lurching and bleeding and generally on death's door. The Steelers just calmly lined 'em up in their sights, steadied their aim, and popped a death shot in Cincinnati's neck. The Steelers are good for this kind of thing: they got Cincinnati's best Thursday night, which isn't saying much: the Bengals committed two penalties and only turned the ball over once. But Pittsburgh held them to 208 total yards and only 25 minutes of possession.

And really, the most interesting part of this game was the weather. Was that cool or what? A nice steady snowfall and some pretty hectic swirling winds to whip it up and shoot it horizontally. That I liked.

And one more thing: Ben Roethlisberger isn't my favorite quarterback in the NFL, but he's up there. For all the shit he takes for holding the ball too long and not knowing when to check down or throw the ball away, the guy's just a friggin' never-say-die gamer out there. I love watching him take a deep drop, give a big pump fake, juke and dance his way back into the pocket, and somehow always find a way to sling the ball through traffic to a guy on the move with velocity and accuracy. At worst, he's a more likable, less erratic, younger version of Brett Favre. At best, he's a rumblin', stumblin', playaction assassin. His numbers weren't fantastic against the Bengals, but he found a nice little groove there spotting guys on deep middle routes and selling all the little play-fakes and screens the Steelers rolled out. He's fun to watch when he's on.

Baltimore over Philadelphia, 36-7
My Pick: Baltimore over Philadelphia, 20-17
Ouch. You've got to give it to the Eagles: they sure as hell weren't going to let NFL fans spend the rest of the year trying to figure them out. They came out on Sunday and put all doubts to rest: they're garbage. Throw them immediately on the scrap heap of teams in total disarray.

They had no business being on the field with Baltimore on Sunday. No business! Other than a fine kick return by Quincy Demps, not one single part of Philadelphia's team was even remotely respect-worthy. The play-calling was atrocious. Donovan McNabb shrugged and yawned his way through a half of flat-out abysmal football before Andy Reid finally placated Philly's awful fans by completely selling Kevin Kolb up the river. Seriously, maybe next time, Reid could be a little less subtle when Philly's fans start bitching and just tie Kevin Kolb to the railroad tracks. How cruel and how juvenile to send Kolb out there to have his genitals mutilated against Baltimore's defense for a half of football, only to re-assert McNabb's place on the depth chart immediately after the game. "Hey, you asked for it, guys. You think he's so great? Here's his ass on a platter! How do you like him now?"

Philly's offensive line was just a joke. Brian Westbrook, who I generally like but plays with about as much passion as the Terminator, checked out on this season weeks ago and clearly couldn't be roused to give a serious effort against such adversity. And Philly's defense, once it became clear the offense wasn't going to give them any help, spent the second half going through the motions (at best).

And here we are at the end of week 12 of the NFL season, and the Eagles have gone from a team I generally like, fear, defend, and enjoy watching to being perhaps the second or third most depressing team in the league. How can anybody like or root for these guys?

As for the Ravens, it's hard to point out exactly what they did especially well on offense, but when your defense dominates an opponent the way their's did on Sunday, sometimes all you have to do is not cram your head up your own ass and you'll put a few scores on the board. To their credit, they took advantage of opportunities and didn't turn the ball over. It was enough. The Ravens are in great shape. And one more thing: Ed Reed is the last guy in the entire NFL you want to intercept your quarterback's pass. The guy just beat his own record for longest interception return for a touchdown. There are certain defensive backs in the NFL, when they get their hands on the ball, they just have an innate ability to go a long way with it. Ed Reed is the President and CEO of their little club.

New York Jets over Tennessee, 34-13
My Pick: Tennessee over New York Jets, 17-16
Talk about a rude awakening: one day you're undefeated and sitting pretty well at the top of the NFL, and by sundown the following evening you've been de-pantsed and man-raped at home in front of 65,000 shell-shocked fans, beaten just about as brutally as possible and now actually polling at third best in the AFC on NFL.com. Ouch. On the one hand, hey, you're still having a great season. On the other hand, damn, that's one seriously discouraging loss.

Kerry Collins seems like a pretty good guy, and he's been more or less steady for the Titans, but I think we can put all that trumped up MVP talk to bed forever. Wasn't that silly? Nothing like a Sunday afternoon stinkbomb to make everyone glance back at your season stats and realize, hey, actually, you've been playing like pretty mediocre crap all season in front of the AFC's best offensive line by far. The Jets did a job on Tennessee's ground game, and you knew they would, but goddamn, Kerry Collins was flat-out nauseatingly bad through three quarters of this one. Don't be fooled by his relatively defensible final stats, either: Collins completed 9 of his final 10 passes after this game was well, well out of reach, after he'd fumbled the ball to end the last chance Tennessee had of staying in the game or keeping it respectable. Before the last two garbage drives, when Chris Simms or Vince Young probably should have been on the field, Collins was 12 of 29 for about 150 yards. You don't just lose when you play like that, you don't just get benched, you actually go to jail.

The Jets, on the other hand, made a strong, hard-to-argue-with claim to being the AFC's best team and perhaps even the NFL's second best. They manhandled the Titans in Tennessee. Brett Favre was sharp and efficient, totally out of character for him. Their defense totally dominated Tennessee. And New York took advantage of just about every single opportunity. It was a massacre. I still don't give a damn about the Jets, I still think they're baloney, but I wouldn't exactly go shouting about it in a Jets bar. Am I ready to take them seriously? Not really. But they played a terrific game, there was no bullshit in this victory.

Tampa Bay over Detroit, 38-20
My Pick: Tampa Bay over Detroit, 21-7
Wow, it turns out I barely have anything to say at all about this game. I really don't like the Tampa Bay Bucs. For one, I hate watching them on offense. Second of all, I think Jon Gruden is incredibly overrated. And the third reason is the Redskins keep running into these guys in the playoffs, and I'm really irritated that the Bucs are a potential barrier to the Redskins getting to the post-season this year. I'll give them credit for taking care of business and being atop the NFC South, but I'm sick of them, they're not a legit Super Bowl contender, and I don't want any pretenders keeping the Redskins out of the playoffs. If there's going to be a pretender in the NFC playoffs, dammit, it's going to be the Redskins.

As for Detroit, no team is more up in the air than the Lions. What do they do well? At least with the Raiders, you know nobody's throwing at Nnamdi Asomugha and they have a deep backfield. The Lions are so frustrating because they don't seem interested at all in establishing anything even semi-permanent. Because they signed and then turned the offense over to a retired Daunte Culpepper pretty recently, it's impossible to even predict how they'll play from one week to another, and they can't possibly even know what plays will work or how much they should emphasize the ground game, something they don't seem capable of doing or willing to do. I honestly feel like they might go 0-16, only because they're playing nothing like a team that is desperate to avoid that distinction, nor are they playing or coaching at all like they understand the importance of just getting a single win. They seem to be treating these games like preseason exhibitions, and it's both depressing and infuriating.

Minnesota over Jacksonville, 30-12
My Pick: Jacksonville over Minnesota, 21-19
I no longer have any doubt that Jack Del Rio is one of the five worst coaches in the NFL. Jacksonville's inconsistent bullshit is just one of his failings. No coach in the NFL is more cowardly, week to week, than Del Rio. The Jaguars called 9 running plays in the entire game. Time and time again, when faced with a tough run defense, the Jaguars make the decision to shelve their running game altogether and sling the ball around. In my preview of this game, I made a point of questioning which of the two coaches would make the utterly indefensible decision to completely abandon the run; it was the Jaguars, they played like shit, and they deserved the 18 point loss.

I will be disgusted to the point of actually vomiting if Jack Del Rio opens up 2009 as Jacksonville's head coach. The Jaguars are, hands down, among the two or three healthiest teams in the NFL, and have been all season. The only possibly excuse for the pathetically poor play of this team and their utter cowardice in the face of a strong defense is the lousy, clueless coaching they're getting from this putz. Jacksonville is a talented team, and just about any person who even just sometimes watches football can look at this team and tell you what they're built to do. I don't even need to type it here. When healthy, as they are, this team should be able to win more games than they lose, and they should be competitive in pretty much any game. Now, every team gets their balls handed to them from time to time. Even the Giants laid an egg in Cleveland. First of all, though, a team should not get their doors blown off in a must-win home game, and second of all, if you're going to get your doors blown off in a must-win home game and watch your dwindling playoff hopes sink like a stone, it shouldn't be to this Minnesota Vikings team, not with Brad Childress at the helm, not unless Adrian Peterson goes completely berzerk. Peterson didn't even play the first half against Jacksonville. Nope, it was the direct result of Jack Del Rio's poor coaching, his team's abysmal special teams play, his bone-headed cowardly move to abandon the run and feature the pass, that gave Minnesota cheap points and favorable field position for the whole part of this game that was competitive.

Now, as for Minnesota, it's important they not get too excited by this win, if for no other reason than because they're almost certain to come out flat, give up a pair of special teams scores, and get completely dismantled in week 13. In fact, I haven't even looked at their schedule yet. Here goes . . . yep, hosting Chicago on Sunday night. Rest assured, I will be picking the Bears in that game, and unless the spread is 15 points, I'm picking them to cover. I friggin' can't stand either of these two teams, and I'm thankful this festival of terrible coaching is now behind us and these two teams won't meet again for a few seasons.

Buffalo over Kansas City, 54-31
My Pick: Buffalo over Kansas City, 23-20
Buffalo played the big, bad bully in this one, taking out all their frustrations on an ass-backwards circus act from Kansas City. If I hated Kansas City even a little less, I might resent the Bills for it. As it stands, I just give a sad, disgusted little chuckle and shake my head. What a fucking disgrace.

Trent Edwards shook the cobwebs out, screwed his helmet on straight, and gave a ballerific performance on Sunday. Honestly, that's all I have to say for the Bills.

As for Kansas City, look: they've been getting a lot of credit lately for the play of Tyler Thigpen and the spread offense. I don't want to take anything away from the guy, but for crying out loud, maybe we want to take a look at the team's record and remind ourselves they're 1-10. This guy could have a decent career ahead of him, but let's not let that distract us from the fact that his team is undoubtedly one of the absolute worst pieces of dysfunctional dog crap in the NFL. And this is exactly my problem with Herm Edwards and his effect on franchises that hire him: he shoos out all the talent in a fairly broad stroke, pretty rapidly knocks the team down to the bottom rung of the league, and then we all start giving his teams credit for not getting blown out one week and competing despite a lack of playmakers. The same exact shit happened in New York. Kansas City, under Herm Edwards, is an embarrassing, shockingly bad slap-stick recreation of NFL football, week in and week out. Their defense is totally overmatched against even mediocre offenses. Their offense is at its best when it avoids turning the ball over a half dozen times and manages to convert 30% of their third down chances. The Chiefs are a terrible team with virtually no expectation that they can compete with the better teams in the league or have anything to play for other than some sort of ambiguous improvement from . . . what, week to week? Month to month? Embarrassing lopsided ass-kicking to embarrassing lopsided ass-kicking? And yet, somehow, he'll skate by for a few seasons on the expectation that his determined efforts to take 8 years off the average age of his players will someday yield even a cohesive, competitive team. What other coach in the NFL is allowed to hang around on the expectation that someday, the youth of his team will jell and he might just have a cohesive, competitive team. There's something about this guy, he's the master at obliterating accountability over his head and driving standards and expectations not just to the ground, but through the earth and out a manhole in a residential street in China. The day the Redskins hire Herm Edwards for anything but target practice is the day I swear off the NFL forever.

Chicago over St. Louis, 27-3
My Pick: Chicago over St. Louis, 20-14
How can you be sure you're a pathetic, hopeless, once-in-a-lifetime trainwreck of an organization with no competitive drive and not a chance in hell of making anything respectable out of your season? When you put up 3 points, commit 11 penalties, turn the ball over 4 times, gain only 207 yards of total offense, play 3 quarterbacks, 3 runningbacks, gain only 14 rushing yards, get outscored 99-10 in the first half of your last 3 games, and wear a St. Louis Rams uniform. When Jim Haslett is hugging the toilet every few hours, projectile vomiting the contents of his stomach so hard it splashes back in his face and all over his shirt, then dry heaving for another 5 minutes for good measure, do you think when he flushes he sees his career swirling around in there amid the chunks? Once upon a time, perhaps as recently as 5 weeks ago, Haslett was an actual, honest-to-goodness candidate for a head coaching position in the NFL. At this rate, I wouldn't hire him to replace a lightbulb. That's so sad, it goes from sad to funny to horribly depressing and then all the way to me feeling guilty as shit for even having written it, like I spit on his grave or something. A grave he'll be inhabiting soon, after he barfs up his still-beating heart.

I predicted the Bears would ride Matt Forte to victory, and though they did, I wasn't exactly correct. I mean, I was correct, but seriously, the Bears could have ridden Joe Forte to victory. They could have handed the ball 20 times to Matt Damon and they still would have won. Still, if you're a Bears fan, you can be pretty excited about what you saw on Sunday. Forte's a horse, and your Bears are getting healthy. The defense played their most complete game of the season, and the pass-rush was really strong. The Bears are still in the fight in the NFC North, and hey, I'm pretty psyched about that. From now on, I'm rooting for the Bears to win the North. To hell with the other teams in that crappy division. There isn't a one of them that isn't playing well below their potential. Among NFC North teams, the Chicago is the only one that ever seems to step up and play over their heads, and I respect them for it. Go Bears!

New England over Miami, 48-28
My Pick: Miami over New England, 27-17
Down the stretch, New England got into one of those 2007 grooves where you knew as soon as the other team blinked it would all be over. To their credit, Miami didn't really blink until the fourth quarter, but it was enough for the Patriots to open it up and wind up with a 20-point margin in a game that wasn't actually all that one sided, at least not compared to the rest of Sunday's games.

It's possible I completely forgot Randy Moss was even a part of New England's offense for a while there, but he put together a classic performance in Miami. Before I go further down the road of heaping praise on the Patriots, let me first say I really don't like their offense, I really don't like their offensive players, I'm really not sold on them, and even if they win out, even if they win the AFC, even if they win the Super Bowl, I'll probably just end up being depressed about the stupidity and inflexibility of NFL defenses, rather than impressed by or sold on New England's offense. And if there's anybody out there who still thinks Tom Brady is as good as his 2007 numbers, well obviously you haven't watched the 2008 Patriots in a few weeks. Not only is Matt Cassel just as good at running the passing part of the Patriots offense right now, he's actually better at the little things like buying time with his feet and scrambling for a first down. Now I'm going to say something really absurd: if the guy under center in last season's Super Bowl had been able to escape and move like Matt Cassel, the Patriots would have finished their undefeated season. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Giselle Bundchen.

Honestly, it turns out I still can't stand the Patriots under Bill Belichick, and I really don't give a damn at all about the Miami Dolphins. Hey, they're having a nice season, hurray! I happen to think all the teams in the AFC East are weak-schedule-inflated, overrated pretenders. I don't like thinking about 'em, I don't like writing about 'em, I don't like watching 'em, I don't like predicting or recapping their games. So there.

Dallas over San Francisco, 35-22
My Pick: Dallas over San Francisco, 29-16
It turns out I nailed the margin of defeat and underestimeted each team's offense by 6 points. Huzzah!

San Francisco was competitive for about 13 minutes of this game. For the opening 13 minutes, they controlled the line of scrimmage, Tony Romo was way off, and there was hope for Niners fans. Then the wheels came all the way off, starting with Nate "Roadkill" Clements, who'll be serving breakfast and cocktails in a penguin suit at Terrell Owens' mansion for the next 25 years.

Seriously, honestly, that's the whole story of this game. Neither defense dominated, neither running game was especially strong, neither quarterback was really all that effective. The whole tale of the tape Sunday afternoon in Dallas was Terrell Owens repeatedly humiliating Nate Clements on deep routes. Seriously, go check the stats. That was the difference. Take away T.O.'s production, and Romo was 17 of 32 for 138 yards.

And if you're Mike Singletary, a 13-point loss to the Cowboys in Dallas doesn't hurt the ol' resume nearly as much as the strategy in the secondary versus Dallas' wide receivers. What the hell were they thinking? Every team in the NFL, since week 4 of this season, has known to put someone with long arms at the line opposite T.O., get in his face, disrupt him, jam him, screw up his timing with Romo, and he'll go away. See, there's this little thing called "video" that we have in the modern part of the world, and teams have been using these "videos" to watch what other teams did successfully against the Cowboys. Not the 49ers, apparently, who thought it would be a good idea to station Clements a good 10 yards off the line of scrimmage on virtually every passing down of the whole game. What an unbelievable, incomprehensibly stupid strategy by the 49ers, and it reflects very poorly on Singletary, who is supposed to know a thing or two about defense. What the hell were they thinking? What did they see in their tape sessions leading up to this game, what were those conversations like?

And now, with the benefit of hindsight, now that it's obvious the whole difference in the game was the way T.O. got completely loose against San Francisco's horribly out of position secondary, doesn't that utter failure of the coaching staff make a strong impression when considering anybody associated with San Francisco's defense for a coaching position?

As for the Cowboys, hey, in Cowboyland, when your team puts up 35 points and your loud-mouthed receiver puts up over 200 yards the same week in which he went on national television and complained to Deion Sanders about the rigidity of the offense, hey, you're back on top of the world. Nevermind that your defense gave up over 300 yards passing to Shaun Hill and the 49ers, or that your tailback averaged just about 2.5 yards per carry on 19 rushes, or that, with the exception of one 22-point explosion in the second, you were outscored and outgained in every other quarter. On the other hand, a win is a win. The Cowboys have an opportunity to get back on track, staying at home next week to face the awful Seahawks before a week 14 showdown in Pittsburgh.

Houston over Cleveland, 16-6
My Pick: Houston over Cleveland, 31-27
Just a dismal, dismal afternoon in Cleveland. 5 turnovers, 5 penalties, 22 minutes of possession, 6 total points, 2 horrific quarterback performances, and a Browns team that has pretty clearly quit on this season, no matter what Romeo Crennel or anyone else in the Browns organization might say to the contrary. Losing to Houston is okay, I suppose. Losing to them at home, that's a shame, as they're pretty clearly a bad road team. Losing to the Texans at home with Sage Rosenfels under center, that's just embarrassing. But losing to the Texans at home with Sage Rosenfels under center when you hold their offense to only 16 points? Houston's defense ain't shit, y'all. If Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson can't do better than 13 of 32 and 3 picks against this defense, they ought to forfeit their paychecks.

Two quick shout-outs and I'm done: Kevin Walter is one of the more underrated receivers in the NFL. Who knows how he might do opposite a receiver less dangerous than Andre Johnson, but to his credit, he's taking advantage of the opportunities. The other shout-out is for to Houston's defense, which played a pretty great game on Sunday. That's it! It was an irrelevent game, so I can't give it too many words or I'll burn out before I get to the meaningful stuff.

Oakland over Denver, 31-10
My Pick: Denver over Oakland, 42-20
Go into a sports-bar anywhere in America and say something offhand as silly as "I hate the AFC West", and no one is likely to even raise an eyebrow. Even in Denver. But go into a sports-bar anywhere in America with "I hate the AFC West" tatooed on your forehead, your eyebrows shaved off, a shirt with the four AFC West logos covered with a big, red X over them, and fire a dozen rounds from an AK-47 into the first person who claps when any of the four AFC West teams makes a positive play on the television, well, you're likely to get locked up for that. We may not be there yet, folks, but we're close. At halftime of this one, I was grinding my teeth to dust. I used to hate the AFC West. Now I really hate the AFC West.

I hate the AFC West because I'm having to re-evaluate some pretty basic, fundamental understandings I've had of myself. It turns out, for instance, that I'm someone who needs order, who needs organization, who needs for things to make sense. You'd never know that by looking at my bedroom, or my kitchen, or the incredibly large pile of laundry growing next to my bed like the blob. Spend some time with me, as I have, and you'd almost certainly come away with the same pretty clear assumption: I don't mind disorder. Well, you'd be wrong. This shit-hole they call the AFC West has shown me, once and for all, how much I require order, organization, progress, sense, a certain structural foundation in the world. Watching, reading about or even thinking about the AFC West makes me twitch and sweat and cringe. It makes my stomach ache. I'm this close to either joining a Yoga class or twisting someone's head off.

The thing about Oakland routing the Broncos in Denver is, there's no possible explanation. Oakland hadn't scored an offensive touchdown in 15 consecutive quarters of football. 15 quarters! Oakland's offense is so bad, we're at the point where comments about Al Davis strapping on a helmet and stepping in under center aren't funny anymore, they're the result of actual brainstorming. They're food for thought. And it's not like Oakland's defense is much better. Nnamdi Asomugha is like a bobber tied to a 15-foot line attached to a rotting corpse.

And let's talk about this game, for crying out loud. Oakland went into Denver and committed 10 penalties. They threw the ball 12 times. They never sacked Jay Cutler. They were outgained by the Broncos. How in the hell do you lose to the Oakland Raiders like this? Well, first of all, Jay Culter was atrocious. His two best completions of the night, by far, were two early screen passes. The thing about these "gunslinger" quarterbacks is when they're out of rhythm, it can be really horrible. Cutler was out of rhythm because his receivers were having trouble creating space, and he was just all over the place. Cutler's a daring young quarterback with a cannon-arm, but among other young gunslingers, like Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger, Cutler makes the most consistently puzzling decisions when he's under pressure. He was flat-out garbage on Sunday. He didn't lose the game for the Broncos, but he sure as hell helped. Second of all, Johnny Lee Higgins is just about the best thing the Raiders have going offensively. He scored on yet another long return. Third, the Raiders took advantage of field position, whether it was from turnovers, or special teams, or penalties, or just good defense.

Mostly, though, it looked to me like Denver expected this to be a cakewalk, and when they were punched in the mouth early, they folded like lawn furniture. It disgusts me that a team from the AFC West will "win" that "division" and go to the playoffs. The NFL should pick the out-of-division team with the best record against the AFC West and give them dominion over the division. If that team is already in the playoffs, they should go to the next team, and so on until they find someone from elsewhere in the NFL to fill that final playoff spot.

Atlanta over Carolina, 45-28
My Pick: Atlanta over Carolina, 23-20
This Falcons team really makes me believe that anyone drawing a paycheck to play in the NFL is good enough to be a solid part of a good team in the NFL. It seems like Mike Smith has managed to squeeze every drop of potential out of these guys, and whatever magic he's working over there, I'd love to see how it's done. Another thing that really impresses me about this Falcons team is the way it seems like they're never either too up for a big game or too flat against a sorry opponent. I don't know, there are lots of candidates for Coach of the Year this season, but after Atlanta's week 12 demolition of division-leading Carolina, I think it'd take something enormous for anybody to overtake Smith. It's just incredible what he's done with this franchise.

Another rookie stepped up big in this one, seldom used rookie receiver Harry Douglas, who had a big run, a big return, and a couple of big catches. He also had a silly penalty, but we'll forgive him.

And folks, folks, Michael Turner, folks. What a baller. 117 yards and 4 touchdowns, including a clutch 3 yard run on a ballsy 4th and goal call in the fourth quarter that extended Atlanta's lead to 10. Matt Ryan is playing very well, and that's great, but the one potential downside of his strong play is that it's deflecting attention away from what would otherwise be considered a very strong MVP case Turner is making for himself. His numbers are outstanding, but most importantly, on a young team coming off a disastrous 2007 season, with a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach, he gives their offense a foundation, a big fat pillar to build around. No matter what they get from Matt Ryan week to week, they know they can hand the ball to Turner 25 times and he'll give 'em something. Psychologically, that's got to play a huge role in this team's success.

As for Carolina, this wasn't too terrible a loss. They dropped into second place in the NFC South just when they were getting thrown into talk of playing for homefield throughout, but they're still in great shape for the playoffs. They played pretty well, too, at least on the offensive side of the ball. The Panthers outgained Atlanta, had fewer turnovers, and held onto the ball longer. Ultimately, the Falcons just made some great plays in the second half and kept Carolina in catch-up mode.

I should really hate the Falcons and Panthers, because right now they could stand in the way of Washington making the playoffs. The truth is, I think of Carolina as the best team in the South, and I can't possibly root against the Falcons. So all the animosity I ought to have for these teams is rolled up and slammed on the back of the Tampa Bay Bucs, a team I have no problem hating at all.

New York Giants over Arizona, 37-29
My Pick: New York Giants over Arizona, 34-24
The thing that separates great teams like New York from the pack is how they take care of the little things no matter who they're playing against and no matter who they have on the field. New York got 201 special teams yards from Domenik Hoxon and cashed in on all five opportunities they had to start drives in Arizona territory. That kind of thing puts enormous pressure on an opponent, especially one dealing with the psychological pressure of playing the 10-1 Super Bowl Champs. Arizona outgained the Giants and had fewer penalties; generally speaking, when a great home team outgains a road team and said road team commits 9 penalties and only rushes for 87 yards, you expect the home team to win, probably going away. But New York just has a knack for making those plays here and there that give them the edge and put the pressure on their opponent. In this game, Domenik Hixon supplied a lot of that edge.

It helps, also, when you hold the home team to 23 rushing yards and win the turnover battle 2-0. I like Tim Hightower, I'm okay with switching to him from Edgerrin James, but are we really sure this guy is an upgrade? You're telling me James couldn't have pounded out more than 21 yards on the ground? I'm not so sure. Sometimes you want a battle-tested veteran out there, and this could have been one of those times for Arizona. New York's defense is great and getting even better, but if you're a Cardinals fan, you can't be happy about the way this team continues to struggle to run the ball with even a little consistency. The Cardinals have been one of the NFL's worst, least explosive rushing teams in the NFL for a few years now. You hear this all the time, and almost never from me, but here it is: as the weather turns colder headed into the playoffs, teams that can't run the ball will be in trouble. Just ask the 2007 New England Patriots.

On the other side, if you're a Giants fan, hey, you've gotta love what you saw from Eli Manning. That was one sharp outing right there. 26 of 33 with 3 scores and no turnovers - great production on the road in a really tough place to play. And the win and especially the offensive production are all the more impressive considering who wasn't on the field; both Brandon Jacobs and Plaxico Burress missed the game. Winning without Jacobs, especially in this fashion, is pretty damn impressive. As for Burress, well, there's one receiver in football who's done more to diminish his value headed into this off-season, and it's that moron Chad Johnson. Burress has only had really two "incidents" in 2008, but how much clearer could it be that the Giants don't need him or his production to have a successful offense? From what I can tell, Eli Manning is not the sort of quarterback who can handle having to force-feed certain guys. He was crap, then they took away Jeremy Shockey, and he made significant strides. Now, this season, when Burress isn't out there, he's even better. There are quarterbacks in the NFL that can handle an outsized ego at receiver, but I think it's fair to say Eli isn't one of them. And you know what? He shouldn't have to. The guy won a Super Bowl and has led his team to a 10-1 record the following season.

I'm legitimately afraid of the Giants coming to Washington in week 13. I don't mind the Redskins losing. I've come full circle and returned to that happy place where I started the 2008 NFL season; I don't mind if they lose, I just want them to compete and be respectable. My concern, though, is that the Giants might deliver a brutal thumping on Sunday, and that would be a real shame.

Washington over Seattle, 20-17
My Pick: Washington over Seattle, 21-16
See how close I was? Pretty impressive, right?

And it turned out what I said at the end of my pick for this game was totally true; I was fully okay with the way this game played out. The Redskins won. They didn't look dominant, I don't care. They looked just like a team with a new offense and a rookie head coach would dream of looking. That's just great.

And what's more, they looked pretty close to hitting on a couple of things that could have really opened up the score a bit. Truth be told, the game was no where near as close as the final score. Matt Hasselbeck was friggin' terrible, just like I predicted. His two picks were just ridiculous. I'm not saying Matt Hasselbeck is a garbage quarterback . . . well, wait, actually, I am saying that. Matt Hasselbeck is totally, totally overrated. He's got a noodle arm, he doesn't handle pressure well at all, he whines and sulks when he isn't in love with his receivers, and his lack of confidence in his receiving corps has a dramatic effect on his play. If Hasselbeck were in New York and Plaxico Burress went down, he'd spend a week making subtle complaints to the media and then lay an epic stink-egg on Sunday. Hasselbeck didn't lose the game for Seattle, though. The whole offense was terrible. Seattle hit on a big run play, but other than that, it's not like they pounded the living shit out of Washington's defense. They ran the ball decently at best. Take out the 44 yard scamper in the first quarter, and you're talking about 85 total rushing yards. Seattle held the ball for only 21 minutes, for crying out loud.

Of course, I wasn't happy to see Jason Campbell take a few big hits early in the game, but once he settled down and was able to process things in the pocket for more than a half-second, he found a nice groove and played a fine game. Clinton Portis was a monster, again. Mike Sellers was over-the-top outstanding in every facet of the game. The defense could have been better, but they played pretty damn well, especially considering London Fletcher and Cornelius Griffin were both well below full strength. All in all, it was a solid win. I'll take it.

It's funny how both of these teams probably have good reason to piss themselves headed into week 13. Seattle has to go to Dallas for what is sure to be a comical blow-out, and Washington gets to host the Giants, who look pretty much untouchable right now. I'm not ready to deny either team a shot in hell of pulling off an upset, but it doesn't look good.

Indianapolis over San Diego, 23-20
My Pick: San Diego over Indianapolis, 24-23
I didn't watch this game, and I'm not surprised Indy won, and I can't imagine anybody out there really is either. I suppose people will continue to excuse away San Diego's season instead of focusing on the fact that they dropped yet another must-win game at home. This time they'll get the pass because it was a last minute field goal that did 'em in. "Man, this team has no luck at all!" Let's see if Norv Turner can come up with a call or two to use to blame the officials.

I don't really have much at all to say about the Sunday-nighter, but I'll go ahead and say this: Tony Dungy showed some real guts in going for it on fourth down twice, once in scoring position and a second time near midfield at the end of the game. That second one was just incredibly gutsy. If the Colts failed there, the Chargers get the ball at mid-field with enough time left to possibly hit an outside route and kick a long field goal. And you can't possibly say enough for Peyton Manning, who completed his fifth game winning drive of the season. With his team in shambles around him and he himself still hobbled from off-season surgeries, this guy has pretty much single-handedly kept his team hanging around in the wild-card picture. Now that they're getting a little bit healthy, at least on offense, they're still in position to make a run. It's an impressive story.

New Orleans over Green Bay, 51-29
My Pick: Green Bay over New Orleans, 34-23
That's it, I'm done with the Packers. Screw 'em. And I'm done with the Saints. It just about ruined my day when I heard someone say the Saints are "still alive" this morning on the radio. These two teams are so friggin' false, I can't stand it.

So congratulations, Drew Brees, on your pursuit of Dan Marino's single season passing yardage record. Your team is totally phony, you're not even serious enough to be called a pretender, and the Saints are pretty easily one of the two most frustrating teams in the NFL.

And as for the Packers, holy fucking shit. 51 points? Sixth ranked passing defense, my ass. I guess it helps when you play the Bears, Vikings, and Lions twice each. Gimme a break. And Ryan Grant is the biggest piece of crap runningback ever. Aaron Rodgers leads the Green Bay Packers in rushing touchdowns with four. Four.

What a disgrace.


No extras today. I might have time later in the week to put something together. I know I said the same thing last week and then flaked out, but it's a short week and I've got shit to do.

Peace!