Let's be honest: a Super Bowl that does not include both the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots will be a big-time disappointment for the NFL, the casual fan, and the sports media at large. That's not to say that a big-market, marquee rematch between Northeast powers New York and New England wouldn't carry its own intrigue, its own set of subplots and distractions; of course it would. But we've yet to watch the conference championship games, and ESPN.com has not one but two articles espousing the quality of a Brett Favre/Tom Brady, Good/Evil, small market/big market, past/future contest to end the year. God help everyone if the San Diego Chargers upset the New England Patriots in the AFC title game: the sports media will be so caught up reflecting on the magnitude of the result, they may miss the Super Bowl altogether.
Luckily for them, both the Packers and Patriots are very likely to advance to the big one. Here's how I see it:
New York Giants @ Green Bay
The Giants bring the NFL's seventh-ranked defense (regular season) to Green Bay to face the league's second-ranked offense. On paper, it looks like a strength vs. strength match-up, but that doesn't tell the whole story: when the Packers traveled to New York in week 2, they dropped five touchdowns on the Giants defense and humiliated them at home. Many will suggest this is a different Giants team with a stronger defense than the one that dropped their opening two games, but again, I don't buy it. The Giants gave up an average of 11 points per game to the Atlanta Falcons, the San Francisco 49ers, the Miami Dolphins, the Detroit Lions, the Chicago Bears, and the Philadelphia Eagles (twice). That's a who's who of NFL division door-mats, and of New York's league-leading 53 regular-season sacks, a whopping 37 came in those games! In their other games, including two playoff contests, they allowed almost 28 points per game, and managed only a sack and a half a game. To put it another way: against competent NFL teams, the Giants have a very average defense. Average, at best.
Good NFL teams beat up lousy NFL teams, yes, but before we get carried away crowning New York's celebrated pass rush and tough resurgent defense, how about we at least acknowledge that the bulk of their good work came against teams that finished a combined 32-64?
Opposite the Giants, the Green Bay Packers seem to be hitting their stride offensively, and that's saying something for a team that put up over 370 yards per game in the regular season, second only to the historic Patriots. Ryan Grant has taken a big step forward and is providing the Packers with a running game they sorely lacked for long stretches of the regular season. In the cold at Lambeau, it will be essential for both teams to establish the ground game, and though the Giants have had more consistent success on the ground, the Packers have the kind of efficient passing attack that could force the opposing defense to play honest and stick with seven men inside the box. One would imagine, on the other hand, that Green Bay will take the approach of forcing Eli Manning to move the ball through the air, testing the Packers' talented secondary, and though he's been better of late, New York's offense is considerably stronger when Brandon Jacobs is punishing the defense and putting up big numbers.
The cold shouldn't favor either team, as both teams play winter home games in frigid, outdoor stadiums. Green Bay has historically been a very difficult place to play for road-teams, and with that in mind, the Packers seem to have a firm edge. They're healthy at most key positions and have been clicking and improving throughout the season. The Giants are still adjusting to an offense missing Jeremy Shockey, one of Manning's favorite targets, and have sustained a number of big injuries on their defense.
The NFL should get their wish in this one. If Green Bay gets ahead early, it could be ugly. New York doesn't play especially well from behind. While many teams start to play offense a bit closer to the vest this time of year, not wanting to make a critical mistake, Mike McCarthy doesn't strike me as the kind of guy that scales back his playbook, especially not with a veteran quarterback like Favre running the show. But because it is the post-season, I'd expect them to limit the risks, especially with a lead, so the score might be a lot closer than the actual level of competition . . .
Packers over Giants, 23-14
San Diego @ New England
Everything depends on the health of the skill guys on San Diego: as admirably as Billy Volek and Michael Turner played in Indianapolis, Bill Belichick will have had an entire week to put together a game-plan to attack these guys, and we've seen what he can do to frustrate even Pro-Bowl level players. The Chargers were no match for the Patriots even at full strength in the second week of the regular season; if they're to have any chance at all on Sunday, they'll need their elite players playing at an elite level. Will that get them a win? The odds are pretty long, but if nothing else, it could spare the viewing audience a bloodbath. We've already endured more than our fair share.
Igor Olshansky of the Chargers made perhaps the most puzzling statement of the season thus far, suggesting that the Patriots have more to be worried about than the Chargers. Interesting, given that the Patriots absolutely thumped the Bolts in week 2. Incidentally, when was the last time both championship games featured rematches from the same week of the regular season? No, really, do you know?
At any rate, maybe Olshansky knows something the rest of us don't. Just based on surface observations alone, the Patriots are pretty clearly the best team in the NFL, but you have to consider that they just might be playing their worst football of the entire season. Think about it: the Patriots won their first 10 games by an average of 25.4 points; a hell of a margin. In their last 7 games, including the divisional contest against the Jaguars, that margin is down to 10.2. Yes, they're still winning by double digits, but if you're going to find silver lining in a match-up against the first team to complete a 16-0 regular season in NFL history, you'll take what you can get. The Chargers, on the other hand, have won eight straight games; their final six regular season contests by an average of 18 points per game, and two playoff games by just over a touchdown, holding opponents to a measly 13.1 points per game over that stretch. Who knows? Maybe Olshansky knows something. Yeah, right.
Simply put, if Billy Volek and Michael Turner have to play significant time in this game, it won't be close. If Ladainian Tomlinson can go, who knows? LT is a lot like Brian Westbrook, a guy I'm a lot more familiar with because he plays in the NFC East, in that he can go completely nuts and win a game on his own. Offensively, that's what the Chargers are hoping for, that's what they need. If LT goes off, Philip Rivers protects the ball, and Antonio Gates finds room against a pretty slow and underwhelming New England linebacker corps, the Chargers could easily hang 30 points on the Pats. Bill Belichick's entire defensive philosophy is based on eliminating an opponent's greatest strength, and in this case it will be LT. In their first meeting, LT was held to 58 total yards of offense, and the Chargers struggled mightily to move the ball consistently. In New England's match-up against the aforementioned Brian Westbrook, let's assume eliminating his production was their primary defensive goal: Westbrook went for 92 total yards on 24 touches and a score; decent production, but if that's all the Chargers get from LT this weekend, their season will very likely end shy of a trip to the Super Bowl.
Every strategy seems to have already been suggested for slowing the incredible Patriots offense, and many have been implemented, with varying degrees of failure. It seems NFL observers suggest, week after week, that slowing Tom Brady's prolific passing attack is as simple as jamming his receivers at the line and disrupting their timing, and yet, week after week, defenses reject that philosophy and, week after week, are methodically destroyed by New England's pass-heavy attack. Here we are, 17 games into the manifest failure of NFL defenses to adapt or have any meaningful measure of success stopping or even slowing the Patriots, why not jam these guys at the line and beat 'em up? The Chargers have the pass-rushing personnel to attack Brady in the backfield and supply steady pressure, and perhaps if they have any measure of success disrupting the clean release of his receivers, they may be the first team to force Brady into the kind of mistakes that lead to turnovers and strong field position. Inevitably, any discussion of an upcoming Patriots game becomes an exercise in suspending disbelief: if the Patriots play at a level that even resembles their efficiency up to this point, they should win pretty easily. What's the point of dissecting a potential strategy for the Patriots? If they do what they always do, as well as they've always done it, they should win.
Who can pick the Chargers in this game? Going out on a limb with the Jaguars is one thing: they hadn't faced the Patriots yet in 2007, featured a strong running game and a fantastic defense, and were probably the AFC's second hottest team. The Chargers could be the AFC's third hottest team, but with injury concerns and a loss to the Patriots already on their resume, optimism is hard to come by.
Unless you're Igor Olshansky, of course.
Patriots over Chargers by a wide margin.
We'll recap on Tuesday or Wednesday. Until then . . .
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Divisional Contests are In the Bag!
It should be noted here that I picked three of four games WRONG this weekend.
Let's rap:
Packers over Seahawks, 42-20
My Pick: Packers over Seahawks, 31-24
Apart from supplying a bit of atmosphere to the whole affair, I'm not sure the snow meant a whole lot in this contest, although I am sure it'll take a fair amount of blame on the team flight back to Seattle. The Seahawks just aren't real good, folks, and they haven't played any great football teams all season. The closest they got was a trip to Pittsburgh, and we all saw how competitive they were in that one. Sure, they can look sexy from time to time, but in the end, there's a lot of style there and not a whole lot of substance. Sadly, that's just going to be the case with these Seahawks. As for the Packers, they seem to be peaking at the right time, having found a dangerous ground game to compliment their prolific aerial assault, and they should be able to apply the framework of their victory over the Seahawks to their upcoming home-game against the Giants. Both opponents have built their defenses around an athletic, disruptive defensive line and like to blitz, and both teams successfully mask the relative weakness of their secondaries behind that fearsome pass-rush. Like the Seahawks, the Giants can be gashed in the running game, and once the pass-rush has been neutralized, they're very vulnerable to the passing game. Unlike the other three teams with first-round bye-weeks, the Packers looked like they put the extra week to good use and came out looking better than they did in the regular season.
That's all I have to say about that.
Patriots over Jaguars, 31-20
My Pick: Jaguars over Patriots, 34-30
New England was fantastic in the red-zone, and with the noted exception of Gostkowski's 35-yard miss in the first half, they finished their drives with touchdowns. Jacksonville, on the other hand, struggled to find the end-zone and had to settle for a few second-half field goals. Both of David Garrard's touchdown passes in the first half were miracle throws: the first, to Matt Jones, was from his knees; the second, to Ernest Wilford, was thrown while in retreat with a defender in his face, and he basically lofted it to the sideline and Wilford ran under it. A few other things I noticed from this game:
1. There were a handful of times in the game where a Jacksonville player was this close to getting past the last defender and breaking a home-run score. The difference between a playoff team and a crap team is sometimes tackling: when you're a slow defense that executes well and doesn't miss tackles, you can be great; when you're a slow defense that executes well but doesn't tackle well, you stink; when you're slow, don't execute, and don't wrap up, you probably also wear orange helmets and brown jerseys.
2. Rashean Mathis is maybe the worst tackler in the NFL. Under any circumstances, I'd trust Brian Moorman to make an open field tackle over Mathis. Over and over and over again he proved himself a chicken-shit in this game, but never more starkly than when Dante Stallworth bowled him over for the game-clinching first down. Mathis can cover, he's got hands, and he can run. He can't tackle for shit. Frankly, I've never been more embarrassed for a player in an NFL football game. The Patriots didn't test him down the field, they just ran right at him and repeatedly threw screens and hitches to his side, knowing he couldn't make stops.
3. Maybe Reggie Nelson ought to shut up about poo-pooing Tom Brady's statistical achievements in this game: the guy did torch Jacksonville's defense to the tune of yet another NFL record. Brady did not, however, gash my defense at all, and therefore I am allowed to poo-poo his statistical achievement: all season long, the New England offense has lived on the strategy of getting the ball into the hands of playmakers in areas of the field where they do their best work. If that means throwing a 50-yard jump-ball to Randy Moss, so be it. If it means a receiver screen to Wes Welker, where he can use his elusiveness in the open field, or finding Benjamin Watson in the flat or seam, or Kevin Faulk underneath, or Dante Stallworth over the middle, etc. In general, New England's offense does not depend on Tom Brady making difficult throws, or difficult reads, or even throwing many out-patterns. Generally speaking, against most teams, the vast majority of Tom Brady's completions are inside ten yards and over the middle. Randy Moss draws the defense deep, opening up the underneath, which allows New England to take the short stuff and move first down to first down, which has the same effect as running the ball in that it chews up clock and wears out the defense. I'm not saying Brady isn't a fantastic quarterback. I am saying that if you've watched a handful of Patriots games this season, you know by now that if a defense doesn't commit to taking away the underneath stuff by playing tough with New England's receivers at the line, Brady will dump off underneath all game long and it'll work. I'm bothered that Reggie Nelson knew all this after the game: these guys had 16 weeks worth of game footage to watch, but they had all the answers only after they'd just lost a playoff game. Anybody can complete 90+% of their passes in a check-down offense, Reggie? Then maybe you want to try to stop the check-down offense, that's just an idea.
4. The Jaguars clearly thought the best and only way to slow down the Pats is by playing the secondary in New Hampshire. It hasn't worked yet, it must be due!
5. Probably the worst thing that could have happened to the Jaguars defensive playcalling was the first quarter sack of Tom Brady by John Henderson on a mush-rush. Before the game, the Jaguars had made a public comment that they weren't going to be able to get away with relying on their front four to pressure Brady. They were right about that. The first quarter sack convinced them otherwise, and they almost never went back to the blitz. Seriously, folks: you have to pressure Brady in the pocket, it should be your number one goal coming into a game against the Pats. In general, the only way to successfully play the Pats is to play with your defense coming forward at all times: into the backfield, into the face of their receivers at the line, up to the line of scrimmage against the run. You may be beaten by Randy Moss on a deep ball or two, but you'd rather force Tom Brady to throw 60-yard bombs down the field with defenders hanging on his limbs and knocking him on his ass than dumping 8 yard catch-and-run balls to Wes Welker with nary a grass-stain on his pants. Am I crazy? That seems like a no-brainer! Teams probably won't want to sell-out in the pass-rush just to put a few shots on Brady, but on the other hand, we haven't seen this guy try to orchestrate this offense under constant pressure, maybe someone ought to just give it a try.
Chargers over Colts, 28-24
My Pick: Colts over Chargers, 28-17
I'm not sure I have anything to say about this game. The Chargers got a few big plays and executed very well in the red-zone. The Colts got fewer big plays and did not execute well at all in the red-zone, and that was that. Part of me thinks maybe the time to put a guy into the line-up after missing 12 consecutive weeks of football isn't in the most important game of the season. Part of me thinks that kind of move hurts your team in the red-zone in particular. Then there's this: Marvin Harrison lost the 9th fumble of his NFL career on his first touch of the game, his first catch and first contact in three months. Again, if that happens in a week 13 loss, fine, but in the divisional playoff round? Not so good. As for the Chargers, hey, congratulations. Nothing depresses me like a team sustaining several key injuries in an upset playoff victory, then ruining the conference championship or Super Bowl by fielding a team of second-string guys. Let's hope LT, Antonio Gates, and Philip Rivers all play at full-strength against the Patriots; they'll get pounded anyway, but at least it won't be blamed on injuries.
Also, I'm genuinely happy for Norv Turner. He's now 3-1 lifetime in the playoffs, with a victory over the defending Super Bowl champions on his resume. That's nothing to sniff at. Maybe he can coach after all.
Giants over Cowboys, 21-17
My Pick: Cowboys over Giants, 31-21
Here's the most important stat to be taken from this game: Jason Garrett has been called back for a second interview with the Atlanta Falcons. The same Atlanta Falcons that just hired New England Patriots executive Thomas Dimitroff as their new GM. Another key stat: Garrett has also been called back for a second interview with the Baltimore Ravens. Key stat number three: Wade Phillips is 0-4 lifetime in the playoffs. Another: Wade Phillips is 61 years old.
Clearly, there's a decision to be made here. Jerry Jones has to decide whether to let his talented young offensive coordinator get away and hang on to the old stop-gap who took his team to an NFC regular season title, or fire the guy who just took his team to an NFC regular season title and one of the best regular seasons in Cowboys history and hand his team over to a guy he pretty clearly felt was not ready to be an NFL head-coach only a year ago. Which way does Garrett want to go? He probably doesn't want to see Wade Phillips fired, but he'd surely love to take the reigns of this Cowboys team. In Atlanta, with a dedicated owner and a new GM with a hell of a pedigree, he could build the team from the ground up. Baltimore is probably less attractive as a destination, but as with Atlanta, he'd probably have free reign to build the team in his image. In Dallas, he's got a blue-chip roster and a huge media market in the NFL's strongest division, a storied franchise with the league's biggest owner, but the expectations will be huge and the leash significantly shorter.
Oh yeah, and there was a game, too! I could rip into Tony Romo, but to listen to Terrell Owens tell it, it wouldn't be fair. Look, I think this is a crock. A total effing crock, bubbling over with liquid shit. Yes, Tony Romo can go on whatever vacation he wants with whoever he wants, it's his life, blah blah blah. I'm not sure it caused his poor performance, but I'm sure of this: December 17th, Tony Romo played the worst game of his career with his girlfriend in the stands. The media made a big deal out of it and his teammate publicly called him out on it. T.O. later retracted the statement, but it was pretty clearly a news item and regardless of whatever any Dallas player or coach says about it, it was a distraction. Romo never returned to form in the regular season, ending the year with a discouraging bed-crapping against the Redskins. Now, maybe the vacation didn't do Romo any harm, but did it help? Do you picture Tom Brady or Payton Manning getting ready for a divisional playoff game by traveling to Mexico? When you've flopped in your only previous playoff game, when you struggled down the stretch, when your relationship has already become a media circus and a distraction for your teammates, isn't it an act of defiance to elect to embrace the distraction and neglect the prep-work? Seriously, if I had been in Romo's shoes, there's no way in hell I would have left Dallas, or even the team facility, under any circumstances while the sun was in the sky. Not because I'd be inviting distraction by doing anything else, but because I don't want to lose a playoff game and I'm going to do anything I can to avoid getting the "late-season flop" label pinned to my jersey. Let's go over what Tony Romo was NOT doing while vacationing in Mexico with his girlfriend and her family: a) preparing for the divisional playoffs, and b) preparing for the divisional playoffs. So please, spare me the bullshit defense of Tony Romo: as many members of the media as will undoubtedly pick this angle clean, there will be just as many that will run to Romo's defense. So Phillips gave them the week off: did he tell them not to study? Not to prepare? Did he insist they ignore that they haven't won a playoff game in 14 years and choked away a playoff win last season, or that they finished the regular season with their asses in the air? Most importantly, by not sticking around town and busting his ass with late night film sessions, by not calling up his receivers at 3am to schedule route-tree sessions, he wasn't doing the whole leadership thing, right? Also, by going on vacation with his celebrity girlfriend before the biggest game of his life, after the distraction their relationship had already been, isn't he giving legs to the "girlfriend as distraction" story if they don't win? I could go on and on here, but the point is this: there are a million and a half reasons to NOT go on vacation with the celebrity girlfriend, only one reason to go. For crying out loud, he could have waited a maximum of FOUR WEEKS. Now, instead of playing for a Super Bowl victory and a shot at history, he gets to watch the conference championships and Super Bowl while his head coach is castrated in the media and probably gets fired, his offensive coordinator bolts for a head-coaching vacancy, and he and his girlfriend are discussed on every sports news show and in every newspaper in the land. Nice job. No, sure, it's not a distraction. Couldn't wait a few weeks.
As for the Giants, I don't see them winning in Green Bay, but there's no way this season hasn't been a huge huge success for them. A wild-card road win in Tampa and then a huge divisional round road win in Dallas are each big-time accomplishments, and any time a team goes to the conference championships they've accomplished something great. I thought they would fold in Dallas, having already satisfied themselves in the wild-card round, but they came in with a chip on their shoulder and did some pretty bold, serious trash-talking after the game, with both Antonio Pierce and Michael Strahan using the "bring your popcorn" quote to jab at T.O. Them's fightin' words in the NFC East, and it's good to see that a bitter rivalry could be brewing here.
Packers over Giants, 24-13
Patriots over Chargers by more than a handful.
I'll set up the picks later in the week, but just to be sure, I wanted to get them out there early.
Peace!
Let's rap:
Packers over Seahawks, 42-20
My Pick: Packers over Seahawks, 31-24
Apart from supplying a bit of atmosphere to the whole affair, I'm not sure the snow meant a whole lot in this contest, although I am sure it'll take a fair amount of blame on the team flight back to Seattle. The Seahawks just aren't real good, folks, and they haven't played any great football teams all season. The closest they got was a trip to Pittsburgh, and we all saw how competitive they were in that one. Sure, they can look sexy from time to time, but in the end, there's a lot of style there and not a whole lot of substance. Sadly, that's just going to be the case with these Seahawks. As for the Packers, they seem to be peaking at the right time, having found a dangerous ground game to compliment their prolific aerial assault, and they should be able to apply the framework of their victory over the Seahawks to their upcoming home-game against the Giants. Both opponents have built their defenses around an athletic, disruptive defensive line and like to blitz, and both teams successfully mask the relative weakness of their secondaries behind that fearsome pass-rush. Like the Seahawks, the Giants can be gashed in the running game, and once the pass-rush has been neutralized, they're very vulnerable to the passing game. Unlike the other three teams with first-round bye-weeks, the Packers looked like they put the extra week to good use and came out looking better than they did in the regular season.
That's all I have to say about that.
Patriots over Jaguars, 31-20
My Pick: Jaguars over Patriots, 34-30
New England was fantastic in the red-zone, and with the noted exception of Gostkowski's 35-yard miss in the first half, they finished their drives with touchdowns. Jacksonville, on the other hand, struggled to find the end-zone and had to settle for a few second-half field goals. Both of David Garrard's touchdown passes in the first half were miracle throws: the first, to Matt Jones, was from his knees; the second, to Ernest Wilford, was thrown while in retreat with a defender in his face, and he basically lofted it to the sideline and Wilford ran under it. A few other things I noticed from this game:
1. There were a handful of times in the game where a Jacksonville player was this close to getting past the last defender and breaking a home-run score. The difference between a playoff team and a crap team is sometimes tackling: when you're a slow defense that executes well and doesn't miss tackles, you can be great; when you're a slow defense that executes well but doesn't tackle well, you stink; when you're slow, don't execute, and don't wrap up, you probably also wear orange helmets and brown jerseys.
2. Rashean Mathis is maybe the worst tackler in the NFL. Under any circumstances, I'd trust Brian Moorman to make an open field tackle over Mathis. Over and over and over again he proved himself a chicken-shit in this game, but never more starkly than when Dante Stallworth bowled him over for the game-clinching first down. Mathis can cover, he's got hands, and he can run. He can't tackle for shit. Frankly, I've never been more embarrassed for a player in an NFL football game. The Patriots didn't test him down the field, they just ran right at him and repeatedly threw screens and hitches to his side, knowing he couldn't make stops.
3. Maybe Reggie Nelson ought to shut up about poo-pooing Tom Brady's statistical achievements in this game: the guy did torch Jacksonville's defense to the tune of yet another NFL record. Brady did not, however, gash my defense at all, and therefore I am allowed to poo-poo his statistical achievement: all season long, the New England offense has lived on the strategy of getting the ball into the hands of playmakers in areas of the field where they do their best work. If that means throwing a 50-yard jump-ball to Randy Moss, so be it. If it means a receiver screen to Wes Welker, where he can use his elusiveness in the open field, or finding Benjamin Watson in the flat or seam, or Kevin Faulk underneath, or Dante Stallworth over the middle, etc. In general, New England's offense does not depend on Tom Brady making difficult throws, or difficult reads, or even throwing many out-patterns. Generally speaking, against most teams, the vast majority of Tom Brady's completions are inside ten yards and over the middle. Randy Moss draws the defense deep, opening up the underneath, which allows New England to take the short stuff and move first down to first down, which has the same effect as running the ball in that it chews up clock and wears out the defense. I'm not saying Brady isn't a fantastic quarterback. I am saying that if you've watched a handful of Patriots games this season, you know by now that if a defense doesn't commit to taking away the underneath stuff by playing tough with New England's receivers at the line, Brady will dump off underneath all game long and it'll work. I'm bothered that Reggie Nelson knew all this after the game: these guys had 16 weeks worth of game footage to watch, but they had all the answers only after they'd just lost a playoff game. Anybody can complete 90+% of their passes in a check-down offense, Reggie? Then maybe you want to try to stop the check-down offense, that's just an idea.
4. The Jaguars clearly thought the best and only way to slow down the Pats is by playing the secondary in New Hampshire. It hasn't worked yet, it must be due!
5. Probably the worst thing that could have happened to the Jaguars defensive playcalling was the first quarter sack of Tom Brady by John Henderson on a mush-rush. Before the game, the Jaguars had made a public comment that they weren't going to be able to get away with relying on their front four to pressure Brady. They were right about that. The first quarter sack convinced them otherwise, and they almost never went back to the blitz. Seriously, folks: you have to pressure Brady in the pocket, it should be your number one goal coming into a game against the Pats. In general, the only way to successfully play the Pats is to play with your defense coming forward at all times: into the backfield, into the face of their receivers at the line, up to the line of scrimmage against the run. You may be beaten by Randy Moss on a deep ball or two, but you'd rather force Tom Brady to throw 60-yard bombs down the field with defenders hanging on his limbs and knocking him on his ass than dumping 8 yard catch-and-run balls to Wes Welker with nary a grass-stain on his pants. Am I crazy? That seems like a no-brainer! Teams probably won't want to sell-out in the pass-rush just to put a few shots on Brady, but on the other hand, we haven't seen this guy try to orchestrate this offense under constant pressure, maybe someone ought to just give it a try.
Chargers over Colts, 28-24
My Pick: Colts over Chargers, 28-17
I'm not sure I have anything to say about this game. The Chargers got a few big plays and executed very well in the red-zone. The Colts got fewer big plays and did not execute well at all in the red-zone, and that was that. Part of me thinks maybe the time to put a guy into the line-up after missing 12 consecutive weeks of football isn't in the most important game of the season. Part of me thinks that kind of move hurts your team in the red-zone in particular. Then there's this: Marvin Harrison lost the 9th fumble of his NFL career on his first touch of the game, his first catch and first contact in three months. Again, if that happens in a week 13 loss, fine, but in the divisional playoff round? Not so good. As for the Chargers, hey, congratulations. Nothing depresses me like a team sustaining several key injuries in an upset playoff victory, then ruining the conference championship or Super Bowl by fielding a team of second-string guys. Let's hope LT, Antonio Gates, and Philip Rivers all play at full-strength against the Patriots; they'll get pounded anyway, but at least it won't be blamed on injuries.
Also, I'm genuinely happy for Norv Turner. He's now 3-1 lifetime in the playoffs, with a victory over the defending Super Bowl champions on his resume. That's nothing to sniff at. Maybe he can coach after all.
Giants over Cowboys, 21-17
My Pick: Cowboys over Giants, 31-21
Here's the most important stat to be taken from this game: Jason Garrett has been called back for a second interview with the Atlanta Falcons. The same Atlanta Falcons that just hired New England Patriots executive Thomas Dimitroff as their new GM. Another key stat: Garrett has also been called back for a second interview with the Baltimore Ravens. Key stat number three: Wade Phillips is 0-4 lifetime in the playoffs. Another: Wade Phillips is 61 years old.
Clearly, there's a decision to be made here. Jerry Jones has to decide whether to let his talented young offensive coordinator get away and hang on to the old stop-gap who took his team to an NFC regular season title, or fire the guy who just took his team to an NFC regular season title and one of the best regular seasons in Cowboys history and hand his team over to a guy he pretty clearly felt was not ready to be an NFL head-coach only a year ago. Which way does Garrett want to go? He probably doesn't want to see Wade Phillips fired, but he'd surely love to take the reigns of this Cowboys team. In Atlanta, with a dedicated owner and a new GM with a hell of a pedigree, he could build the team from the ground up. Baltimore is probably less attractive as a destination, but as with Atlanta, he'd probably have free reign to build the team in his image. In Dallas, he's got a blue-chip roster and a huge media market in the NFL's strongest division, a storied franchise with the league's biggest owner, but the expectations will be huge and the leash significantly shorter.
Oh yeah, and there was a game, too! I could rip into Tony Romo, but to listen to Terrell Owens tell it, it wouldn't be fair. Look, I think this is a crock. A total effing crock, bubbling over with liquid shit. Yes, Tony Romo can go on whatever vacation he wants with whoever he wants, it's his life, blah blah blah. I'm not sure it caused his poor performance, but I'm sure of this: December 17th, Tony Romo played the worst game of his career with his girlfriend in the stands. The media made a big deal out of it and his teammate publicly called him out on it. T.O. later retracted the statement, but it was pretty clearly a news item and regardless of whatever any Dallas player or coach says about it, it was a distraction. Romo never returned to form in the regular season, ending the year with a discouraging bed-crapping against the Redskins. Now, maybe the vacation didn't do Romo any harm, but did it help? Do you picture Tom Brady or Payton Manning getting ready for a divisional playoff game by traveling to Mexico? When you've flopped in your only previous playoff game, when you struggled down the stretch, when your relationship has already become a media circus and a distraction for your teammates, isn't it an act of defiance to elect to embrace the distraction and neglect the prep-work? Seriously, if I had been in Romo's shoes, there's no way in hell I would have left Dallas, or even the team facility, under any circumstances while the sun was in the sky. Not because I'd be inviting distraction by doing anything else, but because I don't want to lose a playoff game and I'm going to do anything I can to avoid getting the "late-season flop" label pinned to my jersey. Let's go over what Tony Romo was NOT doing while vacationing in Mexico with his girlfriend and her family: a) preparing for the divisional playoffs, and b) preparing for the divisional playoffs. So please, spare me the bullshit defense of Tony Romo: as many members of the media as will undoubtedly pick this angle clean, there will be just as many that will run to Romo's defense. So Phillips gave them the week off: did he tell them not to study? Not to prepare? Did he insist they ignore that they haven't won a playoff game in 14 years and choked away a playoff win last season, or that they finished the regular season with their asses in the air? Most importantly, by not sticking around town and busting his ass with late night film sessions, by not calling up his receivers at 3am to schedule route-tree sessions, he wasn't doing the whole leadership thing, right? Also, by going on vacation with his celebrity girlfriend before the biggest game of his life, after the distraction their relationship had already been, isn't he giving legs to the "girlfriend as distraction" story if they don't win? I could go on and on here, but the point is this: there are a million and a half reasons to NOT go on vacation with the celebrity girlfriend, only one reason to go. For crying out loud, he could have waited a maximum of FOUR WEEKS. Now, instead of playing for a Super Bowl victory and a shot at history, he gets to watch the conference championships and Super Bowl while his head coach is castrated in the media and probably gets fired, his offensive coordinator bolts for a head-coaching vacancy, and he and his girlfriend are discussed on every sports news show and in every newspaper in the land. Nice job. No, sure, it's not a distraction. Couldn't wait a few weeks.
As for the Giants, I don't see them winning in Green Bay, but there's no way this season hasn't been a huge huge success for them. A wild-card road win in Tampa and then a huge divisional round road win in Dallas are each big-time accomplishments, and any time a team goes to the conference championships they've accomplished something great. I thought they would fold in Dallas, having already satisfied themselves in the wild-card round, but they came in with a chip on their shoulder and did some pretty bold, serious trash-talking after the game, with both Antonio Pierce and Michael Strahan using the "bring your popcorn" quote to jab at T.O. Them's fightin' words in the NFC East, and it's good to see that a bitter rivalry could be brewing here.
Packers over Giants, 24-13
Patriots over Chargers by more than a handful.
I'll set up the picks later in the week, but just to be sure, I wanted to get them out there early.
Peace!
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