Final Regular Season Recap

I have a hard time making any sense of the final week of the NFL regular season. Some of the results can be thrown right out the window, as many teams elected to sit their important players and play their scrubs. What does this do for the NFL? Honestly, if I paid top dollar for tickets to a late season NFL game and got to watch the exhibition squad run out there and look bad, I'd be pissed. If there are games in the NFL regular season that don't mean anything, they should be cancelled. Franchises should not be allowed to rake in all that ticket and TV revenue while making only a passing effort to win a game, I'd rather only the games that matter, or games in which teams are going to play their top guys, be played and televised. Anway, on to the results!

Patriots over Giants, 38-35
My Pick: Patriots over Giants by a bunch

I don't take anything away from this game. There's a part of me that wants to say the Patriots look vulnerable, but I know that's retarded. Every team looks vulnerable. The stupid thing about suggesting the Patriots are beatable because they pulled out a number of squeakers this season is not that they went undefeated and are therefore invulnerable, but that they are still an NFL team built out of humans, and of course are vulnerable. I realized this while watching the Saturday nighter between these two teams, when the Giants went up by twelve and I told my wife the Patriots would be in big trouble against any other team in the NFL: everyone keeps talking about finding the secret blueprint for beating the Patriots, and I finally have it: just like any other NFL team, you have to outplay them for four full quarters. That's tough: they've got a lot of good players, a smart coach, and they execute very well. If there's another team with that combination, that team can beat the Patriots, provided they have a solid gameplan and don't crap themselves in fear. But in the end, isn't that the difference between the Patriots and most other teams in the NFL, especially the Giants? How many teams in the NFL can you expect to assemble a good team, put a smart guy in charge, consistently come up with a good gameplan, and actually execute it? Five over the course of a whole season, with the odd pretender or two "juking the stats". But even then, good teams sometimes go out and lose to lesser teams, and that's why you had the Patriots down by twelve to the Giants in week 17, or down to the awful Ravens, or down to the lowly Eagles. It happens, even to the best team in football. Sometimes, another good team just outplays you, like the Cowboys did for a few minutes, and the Colts did for most of a full game. We've all gotten so wrapped up in the big picture of it, the colorful candy shell of the undefeated season, that we've turned it into something it isn't, which is a flawless season by an unbeatable team. But let's not do that to the Patriots, who deserve a bit better. Isn't the accomplishment that much more impressive, don't you like them just a tad more when you remember that they're just another NFL team, with the same salary cap, the same injuries, even some of the same guys who succeeded or failed in other places? You know who played a pretty flawless season as a pretty unbeatable team? Those obnoxious 1972 Dolphins, who assembled a juggernaut without the restrictions of the modern NFL and probably could have gone 16-1 playing their starters only part-time. For me, it allows me to appreciate the Patriots in addition to my loathing of them, but at the same time, I'm able to unveil the reality behind all the ESPN baloney - any team can beat the Patriots. It just means actually playing good football, actually coaching good football, and taking care of business for four quarters. It doesn't mean you will win, only that you can. The Giants had it! But the hallmark of these Giants, as coached by Tom Coughlin, is the inability to finish what they start, whether that's a promising first half of a season, or a promising first half of a game. Too bad, I would have celebrated even these awful, unlikeable Giants if they'd taken down the Pats. Ah well.

Falcons over Seahawks, 44-41
My Pick: Seahawks over Falcons, 21-13

These really are the Seattle Seahawks. I'm not kidding. There will be those who insist the game had no meaning to the Seahawks and that's why they lost, it was just a useless exhibition played by extras , blah blah blah. Baloney, I say. There's no explaining away a game in which you put up 41 points and LOSE to a team starting a quarterback who began the season RETIRED after a dreadful, short NFL career, a team with an interim coach with no NFL head coaching experience, the Atlanta Falcons minus Michael Vick playing out the end of one of the worst seasons in franchise history. I like to think of it this way: if the Redskins played the Atlanta Falcons, and both teams were at full strength from 2006, and the Skins gave up 30 points to the Falcons, I'd be horrified. If the game took place at the end of the season, and the Skins were headed to the playoffs and the Falcons were out, I'd be even more horrified. If the Skins played their backups most of the game, even on defense, I'd be horrified, truly horrified that my team, headed to the playoffs, couldn't keep the incompetent Falcons, even WITH Michael Vick, from putting up 30 points, even with a defense full of backup players. Now, subtract a head coach and the only offensive player worth a damn from the Falcons. Now add the most turmoil any franchise has had to endure over the course of a full season. Now put in the Falcons backups, and give them a quarterback that ended an awful, embarrassing NFL career a year ago and had been out of football ever since, and had only been on the team for about 5 weeks. Now, instead of the mediocre Redskins of 2006, subsitute the Seattle Seahawks, with a Pro Bowl quarterback, Pro Bowl defensive players, a Pro Bowl runningback, a Super Bowl MVP receiver, and a Super Bowl winning, future Hall of Fame head coach.

Ok, now forget everything I just said. The NFC West Champion 2007 Seattle Seahawks gave up 44 points to the NFC South cellar dweller 2007 Atlanta Falcons. Really, that was all you needed to know about how legit the Seahawks are, right there.

Browns over 49ers, 20-7
My Pick: Browns over 49ers, 27-16

So, it didn't happen for the Browns this season, but it was a lot of fun. 10-6 is a very respectable record, most years it'd get you in the playoffs. The Browns solved a few problems this year: Romeo Crennel is their guy, provided he doesn't jump ship for Miami or Baltimore; Braylon Edwards is the franchise player, their star and their future and one of the best receivers in the NFL; Kellen Winslow Jr. is an elite tight-end and has matured into a real leader; their offensive line is excellent, Joe Thomas was a brilliant pick; Joe Jurevicious is a keeper, a valuable red-sone target and a reliable option; Jamal Lewis has some miles left in him and gives them a reliable ground game for another year or two; and last but not least, at WORST the Browns have a quarterback capable of getting them into the playoffs, a bit scattershot at times, but gutsy, explosive, and developing chemistry with their top options; at BEST a Pro Bowl player capable of setting new franchise passing records and leading the Browns to the top of their division. Also, they have trade bait in Brady Quinn OR Derek Anderson. Their defense came together a bit down the stretch. They need some depth at runningback, they'll probably address that late in the draft. They need more help on defense, and I think the likeliest scenario involves them making a franchise or transitional tag offer to Derek Anderson, then dangling him for a high pick plus a solid defensive player. His value is probably higher to them on the market than in a long-term deal, but these Browns seem to me like they might be the loyal types, the team that's gone through too much crap to let a guy like Anderson go away after the kind of year they've had. We'll see. I'm hoping they deal Brady Quinn and sign Anderson to a long term deal, but the fact that Quinn is on a rookie deal as the 23rd pick, whereas Anderson is looking at a lucrative deal, makes the young guy the more attractive option, money-wise. Ok, enough of that. Congratulations to the 2007 Browns: they had a hell of a season and are sitting pretty for the off-season, and they took care of business in week 17, even though it wasn't enough to get them in. That's a big step for Cleveland.

Bears over Saints, 33-25
My Pick: Saints over Bears, 28-20

It's hard to know what to make of the Saints, in part because they play in the NFC South. Looking back at their season, there's almost nothing they can hang their hat on, and I have a hard time believing this isn't a 4-win team playing in a terrible division that was coached up to 7 wins. I'm willing to believe in Drew Brees: the fact is, you don't put up 4,400 yards, 28 touchdowns, and a 90 passer rating without knowing how to play the position pretty well. I'm past the point of thinking he's the kind of quarterback that can carry a team, though. In a number of games this year, notably the first four and the last three, he looked flustered, uncomfortable, inaccurate, and like a real liability to his team. I hear stories that he's relentlessly positive and optimistic around his teammates: I love that. I love to hear that about a guy, and I can see why his coaches believe in him and want him around. But I know what I saw in a few games, and it wasn't a guy oozing confidence and optimism. It was a guy that looked like he'd rather be anywhere but the pocket, who looked like the speed of the game was overwhelming him and he was scared shitless. I like the guy, I'm not doubting he could quarterback a Super Bowl team, but I'm pretty sure that in order for that to happen, the Saints are going to need to develop the kind of defense that can keep the pressure off their offense to put huge points up and carry the load. They'll need a better running game than Reggie Bush has offered, but I'm willing to wait and see what happens when Deuce McAlister is back. Sean Payton seems like the guy: in fact, I think he's good enough to get his team 3-4 more wins than they might otherwise have. But they needed this game to have a chance at the playoffs, and though I've been defending the Bears all season, Chicago is a team the Saints should beat with this much on the line. Once again, Brees opened things up with a costly pick, and frankly, the Saints never recovered from that. Again, I just don't think he's the kind of guy that brushes that off and does what an offense must do after that kind of turnover, which is march right back down the field and put up points immediately. My point, here, is ultimately this: the Saints are most of the way towards being the top team in the NFC South, but what they are lacking is substantial enough that they have a lot of work to do. As for the Bears, Lovie Smith got his guys to buy into the idea that the 2008 season started a few weeks ago, and they seem to be playing with some renewed sharpness. I appreciate a team that plays spoiler down the stretch, and the Bears sure did, crushing the Packers and eliminating the Saints. They have SO MUCH to do in the off-season, but the effort is always there. I respect that.

Bengals over Dolphins, 38-25
My Pick: Bengals over Dolphins, 41-10

If I'm in the Bengals front office, I'm terrified of this off-season. I'm scared shitless about losing Chad Johnson, but I'm even more afraid of what it might a) take, and b) mean to keep the guy. Chad's a hell of a receiver and one of the NFL's brightest stars, so whoever wants him is going to have to pony up. I also get the sense he's frustrated by the losing in Cincy, and wants to be on a contender. That might bump the price tag for the Bengals, who might then opt to use the franchise tag on him. That's where things get really really hairy: the chemistry on this team is combustible as is, imagine taking one of the most important, most outspoken players on the team and pissing him off with the franchise tag. That's the kind of move that never works, but do you let the guy go and get nothing for him? Jeez, tough call. Then there's the coaching situation! I like Marvin Lewis, and emotionally, I don't want him to get fired. I also want him to be a better head coach than he's proven to be so far, and therefore I'll understand if they shit-can him. But they've got some big-time guys playing in the prime of their careers over there, changing coaches might toss the whole franchise into flux. Tough times in Cincinnati. At least they get the 9th pick in the draft to address their defense, and David Pollack comes back from injury next season. I don't know, if I'm the brass, I probably hold pat for another year, but the whole thing is on a short leash. Miami, on the other hand, has only two things going for it, but they're big: a real-deal, true-blue football guy is running the show in the front office, and the top overall pick in the draft. I'm not one of these Tuna lovers, but two things are true of Parcells: he's been around long enough to know what a functional, successful NFL team and franchise looks like, and he's got the will-power to make it happen. Of all the shit that's gone wrong for the Phins over the past couple of seasons, they managed to land themselves in a pretty good spot: holding the top overall pick with one of the league's savviest talent evaluators calling the shots. They started making moves on Monday, dumping their GM as anticipated. I'd expect Cam Cameron to go next. I'm no fan, but I'll say this of the guy: his Dolphins team was one of the worst teams in the NFL, untalented, poorly coached, bone-headed, and outmatched at almost every turn, but there were only a few times this season when I felt like his team gave up, or mailed it in. He's no head-coach, but he ain't Brian Billick. Give me the 2007 Dolphins franchise over the 2007 Ravens franchise any day.

Eagles over Bills, 17-9
My Pick: Eagles over Bills, 30-17

Improbably, and without value, I almost got the point ratio right on this one. Ok, maybe not almost. Every team in the league has an eye on the Eagles right now, and here's why: they can either hold on to one of the league's best coaches and one of the league's best quarterbacks, or they can dump them, and many a franchise will change their shopping plans based on that situation. Let's say the Bengals think they're gonna stand still this off-season, then Andy Reid pops up as a head-coach candidate. You're telling me they don't take a bite? What about Carolina? You don't think Arthur Blank and Steve Bisciotti are watching Philly to see if either of them can land Andy Reid, who turned the Eagles from an also-ran in the NFC East into a Super Bowl contender? As for McNabb, look: clearly this guy is still one of the best quarterbacks in football. He may not be an A+ quarterback, but look around the league and give me a handful of better players . . . that's right, you can't. The quarterback situation in the NFL is so bad these days, even an 80% McNabb is still one of the best. His value on the market is limited, but how stupid would the Eagles have to be to put him out there? Or let him go? The Eagles want to contend, is Kevin Kolb the guy to get them there? No effing way! Maybe five years from now, but how are Philly fans going to handle spending the next few years in their new stadium at the very bottom of the NFC East? This team needs to publicly re-commit themselves to both Reid and McNabb, put everything under the bridge, and re-tool in a big way for another run. They've got three pieces any team in the NFL would kill for: a Pro Bowl quarterback, an elite, all-world Pro Bowl runner, and a loyal, long-tenured and successful head coach with a great staff around him. They beat the Bills on Sunday because they've got more talent and they know how to win, and after a miserable season, full of injuries, inconsistency, and unrest, they still finished 8-8 in the NFL's toughest division. Most years, an 8-8 finish in the NFC East puts you in solid position for a wild-card. As for the Bills, they won't sneak up on anyone next year, which is what doomed them in the beginning of this season. Sooner or later, Dick Jauron needs his team to get out to a hot start or he'll become another Herm Edwards, a guy whose team only wins games when they aren't expected to. If Trent Edwards is the guy, he's the guy, but he's gotta know he's stepping into a situation where the Bills need to take big steps next season, a slow start from the young quarterback couild be all it takes to get his coach fired. In the AFC East, playing alongside the dreadful Dolphins and Jets, it would be an unacceptable step backwards if either of those teams leap-frogged the Bills into second place.

Panthers over Bucs, 31-23
My Pick: Bucs over Panthers, 21-10

I have a couple of different, conflicting feelings about this outcome: first, who the hell does Jon Gruden think he is? This guy must know something the rest of us don't about his Bucs, to think they can back their way into the playoffs in such ugly fashion and stand a chance of making a run. I said it a few weeks ago, the Bucs are as banged up as any team in the playoff picture and need to heal up, but they also needed to keep some momentum going. Let's not forget that this same bunch of guys, sans Jeff Garcia, played their way to an impressive 4-12 record last season. In my prognosis, they've still got some losing in their blood, I don't see this team being the kind of group that can just turn it on and off like a light switch. Seriously, this reeks of arrogance to me, the kind of arrogance that gets crammed down your throat when the New York Giants run you out of your own stadium in week 1 of the playoffs. Gruden is a season removed from having his ass on the line, and he's looking at coughing away a playoff run here by overestimating his prowess as a motivator of men. On the other hand, Gruden did win a Super Bowl in Tampa, maybe this guy knows something the rest of us don't about his Bucs. I'll be the first guy jumping up and singing his praise if the Bucs make a nice playoff run, but at least part of that will be my surprise at the unlikeliness of it, after skidding into the playoffs on a nice losing streak. For now, the Bucs are lucky they're playing the Giants: against most other NFL teams, I'd be rooting for Tampa to get bounced hard after showing that kind of over-confidence. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers didn't have such a bad year, record-wise. They became an after-thought about 9 weeks ago, but this team oozes underperformance, and I'm left to wonder what might happen if all their amazing talent plays to potential in 2008. If I'm sitting in that front-office, I'm at a crossroads: we've got a good coach (and yes, John Fox is a good coach) and plenty of talent, it just hasn't come together. Do I cut Fox loose and look for the Gruden Boost in a new guy, or do I give it another year? If I give it another year, people might stay healthy, players might perform to expectation, and suddenly we're deep in the playoffs, or we might continue to stagnate, at which point wholesale changes will probably be needed, from the top on down. As a fan of football and the NFL, I'd like to see it work for John Fox in Carolina, but the Panthers had the kind of ugly, lost season that really discourages fans. It'll be interesting to see what happens this off-season.

Packers over Lions, 34-13
My Pick: Packers over Lions, 28-14

Green Bay looks good heading into the post-season, if for no other reason than that there's only one other team in the NFC playoffs that appears to have any momentum going, and it's the 6th seed wild-card. The Packers beat up the Lions mostly behind the play of their backups, but the little bit they got from Brett Favre and Co. was enough to give them the lead for good. If they can consistently run the ball the way they have the past few weeks and continue to play good defense, they should be in the NFC Championship. Too bad that game could be in Dallas, where Favre looked so bad the Packers were actually way better off after he left the game. As for the Lions, I get a sick feeling when I look back at this season. Not because it wasn't a decent season, because it was. But a few things happened along the way in a certain sequence that will inevitably lead to a lot of frustration this off-season. First, Kitna makes his bold prediction. I was fine with it at the time, especially since it really wasn't a prediction at all, just an expectation. Still, because the sports media handled it as a prediction and made it big news, it suddenly became the bench-mark for success for the 2007 Lions. Then the Lions got off to their hot start and looked for all the world like a lock for the NFC Wild Card. Like the Browns, they were a good story for the NFL, a team that had been down forever suddenly jumping up and making a run at the playoffs. Then their offensive coordinator torpedoed them a few times in the middle of the season, and all of a sudden, looking at their second half schedule, it was hard to imagine how they could get into the playoffs. Rod Marinelli seemed to reign it in for a game or two, but Martz popped back up, and the Lions went into a tailspin. The problem with starting your season with high expecations, getting half-way there, and then falling on your ass, is that no matter how successful your season might have been in the big picture, you still feel like shit about it. In Detroit's case, they went back to their losing ways, which is probably extremely frustrating for a bunch of guys who'd allowed themselves to think they were no longer the doomed-to-lose Detroit Lions of yester-year. In addition, not only did they get bounced from the playoff picture, but all their soft-spots were utterly exposed along the way, and you know what? They're the same soft-spots the Lions have had for years: bad offensive line, bad defense, too many turnovers, bad play-calling. So, in the end, it really was a return to form, and ultimately, the early season success really was just a fluke. But looking at the Lions roster, I see a lot to be excited about. They've got an elite receiving corps, 1-2-3 talented runningbacks, a number of very good young players on their defense, and a coach who, if nothing else, has improved the team from last season to this season. They took a big, bold step forward by dumping Mike Martz, now they need an off-season of getting comfortable with a new offense and shoring up their defense. They probably also need to take a look at who their next quarterback will be: I like Jon Kitna, but he won't be around forever and frankly, isn't exactly a game-changer anyway. They can probably get another year or two out of him, but the time to draft or sign the guy of the future is now. The NFC North is a good division, but the Lions are a step ahead of at least the Bears and Vikings, in that they've got explosive and productive talent throughout their offense and a dependable enough quarterback. But once Kitna is done, it'd be a shame to see the Lions drop back down into the cellar while they spend another five years looking for a new signal-caller.

Texans over Jaguars, 42-28
My Pick: Jaguars over Texans, 17-16

I don't know what to make of this game, since both teams played guys at key positions that don't have regular roles each week. It was great to see the Texans get to .500 at season's end, they fought their butts off this season and earned it. Next season, they're looking at a nucleus of Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and a bunch of stiffs on their offense. Ron Dayne gave them a lot of productivity: I like Ron Dayne, I'd love it if they gave him the tailback job, but seriously, they'd be the third or fourth team to put a lot of hope in this guy, and I'd understand if they went out and got somebody else. They've certainly got enough talent on defense to make big improvements next season, but they play in an extremely tough division, and it's hard to imagine any of the other teams in the AFC South falling off. I'm telling you, the NFL needs to do away with the division winner format and just take the top six teams in each conference. I know that makes division games, and even the division system obsolete, but frankly, I'm depressed by the idea that the Texans are doomed to sit at the bottom of the AFC South for the next seven years while the Chargers mop up their bullshit division and get bounced in the playoffs. Same goes for the NFC, where it could very well be the Redskins watching the playoffs with a 9-7 or even 10-6 record, while the god-awful Seahawks tip-toe in atop the laughable NFC West. Maybe they should take the top three division winners, then the next two best records in each conference, then let the next two best records battle on neutral territory for the final spot, like the play-in game in the NCAAs. Ah hell, you'd still have the Seahawks and Chargers in the playoffs. Booooo. Maybe the two West divisions should just float away into the Pacific and leave the real football teams alone! Blam! Also, where was Jacksonville's defense in this one? Not the way you want to enter the playoffs, giving up 42 points and then traveling to Pittsburgh, where you had to come from behind to win earlier in the year. This is another case of the difference between what happens when you play your bench, and what happens when you play your bench and mail it in, too. It doesn't surprise me that Jack Del Rio would be arrogant enough to think that his team can turn it right back on, on the road in Pittsburgh, this weekend. But it's this kind of thing that drives me crazy, and if the Steelers hadn't also elected to mail it in, I'd have an easy time rooting hard against the Jaguars. For now, I don't give a shit who wins.

Ravens over Steelers, 27-21
My Pick: Steelers over Ravens, 24-13

If, 14 weeks ago, you'd told me the Steelers would rest their starters in the season finale against the out-of-the-playoffs Baltimore Ravens and lose, I would have been okay with it. Back then, the Steelers looked like the second or third best team in the NFL, I would have assumed your bit of news meant they'd locked up home-field or a first round bye before the final weekend. But looking at this result, I'm realizing that the Steelers are, of the six playoff teams in the AFC, one of maybe two that couldn't afford to take a breather in the final weekend. I have the feeling, of this team, that they need the momentum more than anybody. Early in the season, I so wanted the Steelers to be a great team, but over and over and over again, week after week, they proved to be an inconsistent, streaky team capable of beating almost anybody and losing to just about anybody. I'm not sure exactly what leads a team to be so up and down, so prone to misfiring, but in the case of these Steelers, I feel it comes down to a couple of things: one, they don't consistently run the ball. Well, wait, yes they consistently run the ball, but they don't run the ball consistently. Willie Parker is a fine back, but sometimes he takes 25 carries and disappears with them. Other times, he takes 25 carries and goes nuts. But most importantly, they don't run the ball especially well in the red-zone. Two, they're turnover prone. Big Ben has had a great year, but he still throws the costly picks, and Parker lost more than his fair share of fumbles this season. Three, they give inconsistent effort. I think that has a lot to do with having a rookie head coach, and I imagine that'll settle down as he gets more and more comfortable with the job. Four, they have some pretty whacky game-planning. They do that crap where they go up against a team that has a weak run defense and a strong pass defense (Denver), and to be cute and "unpredictable", they open up with 11 straight passes. Oh, wow, didn't see that coming! That's the kind of junk you do when you aren't taking winning seriously enough. When you go into a game to win, and you're serious about it, you attack your opponent's soft-spots. Why dick around attacking their strengths? To make a point? Anyway, four things I can think of off the top of my head that seem to lead to these Steelers losing games they ought to win. Most importantly, though, when you've been inconsistent and you're prone to streaky play, isn't it crucial that you enter the playoffs in top gear? I would think so. Apparently Mike Tomlin disagrees. I just don't think it's a coincidence that some coaches took the arrogant, "we don't need momentum" approach to the playoffs and swallowed an ugly loss in the final week, and those same coaches pretty uniformly coach teams plagued by inconsistency. Jack Del Rio's Jaguars have been one of the NFL's most frustrating teams since he's been there; Mike Tomlin's Steelers lost a handful of winnable games in ugly fashion; Jon Gruden's Bucs went 4-12 last year and have lost their last two games, backing into the playoffs; Mike Holmgren's Seattle Seahawks . . . don't get me started again. And like those other teams, I have a hard time imagining this Steelers team just switching it on and off. The Ravens are one of the two or three worst teams in the NFL, a team the Steelers should flatten every time out. They could have gotten away with sitting their starters if they'd come out in the first half and taken care of business. Put Charlie Batch in there when you've got a 10 point lead at halftime! I said two weeks ago that the Bucs should have come out against San Fran and Carolina with the goal of putting up a bigtime lead early and then rest everybody. But in both cases, they came out flat and lost, and now they have to rediscover their mojo in the playoffs: good luck! As for the Ravens, the Brian Billick era has come to a close in Baltimore. I have mixed feelings about that. On the one hand, Billick won a Super Bowl in Baltimore and has coached a team that, with a few exceptions, has been hanging around the playoffs for years. I know he can put together a competitive team, I also know there are a handful of head-coaches in the NFL about whom that cannot be said. On the other hand, there is not a more arrogant, obnoxious coach in pro football, and over the last few years, Billick has made more and more of a spectacle of himself, declaring war on NFL officials and crying conspiracy at every turn. He's a joke, and his players have clearly been poisoned by his willingness to blame every entity on earth but himself and his team for a loss. The Ravens need a Marty Schottenheimer, a crusty old asshole who'll come in there and institute accountability. The Ravens went from a respected veteran team to one of the least likeable franchises in all of football, and I can honestly say it's all because of Billick. He'll probably land on his feet as a coordinator or assistant head coach somewhere, but God help a team that brings him on as head coach. For the future, the Ravens need a lot of offensive help and some more youth on their defense. They also need a shit-load of team speed on both sides of the ball. For the Steelers, they need to get lucky: they're no longer a team that can be expected to go out and out-perform, and in the absence of momentum, they'll need some friendly bounces.

Redskins over Cowboys, 27-6
My Pick: Redskins over Cowboys, 35-10

I told you it'd be a blow-out! Not because the Skins are a lot more talented than the Cowboys, not because they're a better team, not even because they're a lot hotter than the Cowboys: because Redskins fans are nuts at big games at home, and because the Cowboys mailed it in. It was a cleverly disguised mail-in, designed to look like the Cowboys stopped trying to win once Brad Johnson and the substitutes came in, but if you were watching closely, you saw something different: Tony Romo and Wade Phillips came into Sunday's game thinking they could just walk right over the Redskins, expecting an easy battle, and when it didn't happen, they folded up like lawn-chairs and got the hell out of there. But make no mistake about it, the Skins dominated the Cowboys, no matter who was playing. What shocked me was the arrogance of the Cowboys, and the look of befuddlement on Romo's face when the Redskins came out roaring: these Cowboys think too much of themselves! Romo in particular! They believe the hype! And there's nothing worse for a team entering the playoffs than believing their own hype, then getting exposed as soon as they suffer one injury to a key guy, as they did when T.O. got hurt last week. That means when Romo expects a guy to have won a certain matchup, and they haven't, he won't know where to find the next option and he'll start pressing, as he did against Washington. All of a sudden, the league looks up and says, "Hey, all they were doing all along was winning individual match-ups, and look! They can't do it anymore!" That's the T.O. difference: there are almost no individual match-ups he can't win, and that makes everything super-duper easy for the rest of the offense, who get used to soft coverage, and in Romo's case, he got used to T.O. getting open with ease and bailing him out on inaccurate balls. You saw on Sunday, he really struggles when T.O. isn't out there dominating, space kinda closes up on Witten, his second target, and none of those other receivers (bums) are beating anybody anyway. T.O. is expected back for their divisional game, but it's a high ankle sprain, one of the tougher injuries to recover from quickly. If he's 100%, they should be back in business, but if not, well . . . expect more erratic play from Romo.

As for the Redskins, I predicted they'd be in the playoffs as the final seed, and so they are. Clinton Portis has erupted in the last few games, Todd Collins is taking care of the ball and finding Santana Moss and Antwan Randle El down the field, and most importantly, the offensive line is dominating, especially in pass protection. That combination is what you want in the post-season: a reliable ground game, a complimentary passing attack that limits turnovers and takes advantages of opportunities down the field, and great play up front. Add to that the renewed excellence of the defense, and you've got an upset in the making, especially against the butter-soft and totally phony Seattle Seahawks. Seattle does one thing well on defense, and that's rush the passer, so it's critical that the Redskins run the ball successfully to keep the defense honest. Offensively, the Seahawks can't run the ball, but they protect well and have a deep receiving corps. Washington dominated a few pass-heavy offenses early in the season but came up empty against the Patriots: I'm guessing Mike Holmgren and his staff will be studying that game as much as any to try to figure out why the Patriots had so much success at keeping the Redskins off the field. No matter: the Skins will win that game. It probably won't even be close. The Seahawks are another arrogant team, and especially at home, they expect to be able to do what they want to do, and they'll expect the Skins to roll over and die. If there's one thing we know about these Redskins, it's that they don't roll over and die, ever. Too bad, Sea-jacks! Better luck next year!

Cardinals over Rams, 48-19
My Pick: Cardinals over Rams, 31-24

Wow, did the Cards really put up six touchdowns against the Rams? Holy hell! Both of these teams have a lot of soul searching to do in the off-season. The Cardinals seem to have every piece in place expect quarterback; the same would be true even if they did not have Matt Leinart coming back from injury. Kurt Warner is a gutsy player, a gun-slinger and a well-respected veteran. Kurt Warner is not, however, the guy at quarterback for an up-and-coming team in the NFL, not anymore, and I'll give you a few reasons why: a) he's old, and probably needs to be on a team that can win right now if he's going to win; b) he throws a lot of picks, which on more than one occasion doomed the Cardinals this season; and c) he does not handle pocket pressure well at all. Let's be honest here: Warner has some low-grade PTSD from his time in St. Louis, and when he feels pressure around him, he locks up and the ball starts coming loose. Maybe he's a strong leader, maybe he can still sling the ball around, and maybe with Tom Brady's offensive line he'd be a playoff quarterback, but this ain't New England, and teams know they can rattle him with a couple of early shots. Matt Leinart may not be Joe Montana, but by all accounts he's cool in the pocket, knows the offense, and has just enough physical ability to cash in on the wealth of playmakers around him. Plus, he's the future. The shame is, the Cardinals probably have to open up the competition headed into the 2008 season, and maybe Warner looks better in pre-season. But if they go with Warner, they have to win right away, and they probably have to deal Leinart. He wasn't drafted to sit on the bench and there are a lot of teams that would take a shot at him. But if they deal Leinart, they REALLY have to win right away, because once Warner is done (and he's close), they'll have to start over. You see where I'm going here? Matt Leinart needs to open up 2008 as the starter at quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals. Period. Now, as for the Rams, Scott Linehan is thanking his lucky stars he can roll this season up and hang it on the injuries to the offensive line: that might be the only way in hell he keeps his job. He's got the pieces to turn it around: a Pro Bowl runner, a Pro Bowl quarterback, a Pro Bowl receiver, a Pro Bowl tackle, a fast young defense, and a high draft pick. But if they bring him back next season, it will be with the expectation that this team will be playing in January. Do you remember how the Raiders, Vikings, Redskins, Browns, Lions, and Bucs had the top picks in the 2007 draft, and each team turned right around and made a playoff run (except the dreadful Raiders)? That could well be the Rams, who may only be a few healthy guys and a high pick from being back in contention. We'll learn everything about Linehan next season if the Rams decide to give him a little slack. If they don't, he may never get another chance.

Denver over Minnesota, 22-19
My Pick: Minnesota over Denver, 17-14

Wow did Minnesota crap the bed in this one. They were caught peeking at the scoreboard and paid the price. But all that aside, here's what sticks out to me about Minnesota's season: Adrian Peterson averaged about 145 total yards per game before his knee injury, and only 61.6 total yards per game after. God help the NFL and the Minnesota Vikings if this kid's career has been hurt in any way by rushing back to play with a hurt knee. Through nine games, he looked like the greatest running back in NFL history, when he went down with the PCL injury, Brad Childress should have shut him down. There's a lot more at stake with this kid than one trip to the playoffs. This is an example of a coach making career moves at the expense of his team and his players. Look, I don't mean to be too hard on Childress, in general he proved to me that he can be a successful head coach this season, but in one man's opinion (mine), he blew that call. Beyond that, Tarvaris Jackson showed flashes of ability, now he needs to take the next step and develop consistency. If he even drew back from the kind of electric productivity he had in spots and just consistently gave B to B+ performances week in and week out, this could be a really tough team and a perennial playoff contender. But what the hell happened in Denver? For crying out loud, you've got two, count 'em TWO Clydesdales in your backfield, the NFC's best offensive line, and you're on the road against one of the NFL's truly bad run defenses. I can't explain the production of the Vikings in this game. 11 carries for Adrian Peterson, 10 for Chester Taylor, and Taylor averaged over 8 yards per carry! 31 pass attempts for Tarvaris Jackson . . . what the hell? Childress lost this one. Jackson didn't even toss a pick. Taylor lost a couple of fumbles, but there's no way the Vikings should have lost this game. The Broncos never should have had the ball long enough to do much damage, let alone win the time of possession. As for the Broncos, they keep doing just enough to get you excited about next season. They need Cutler to make the leap, and they've already got a stud in Brandon Marshall. If Javon Walker is healthy and they keep Brandon Stokely and Tony Scheffler, they'll be a very difficult offense to contain. They also need to commit to a runningback, that'll help their offensive line by allowing them to develop a sense of where the ball carrier is going to be and when. I know that runs counter to Mike Shanahan's plot to sandbag the value of his tailbacks, but to hell with that. Obviously they need work on their defense, but they've got talent, anyway. Shanahan is the key. Can he sell the front office on another go 'round? If they've got as much talent as they do on paper, they ought to be challenging the top of their division, or at least in line for a wild card. That's a tough call to make . . . Shanahan clearly knows the game of football, but he did a disasterous job putting together their defense and he hasn't shown he can coach consistency into his club. If I were making the call, I'd give him the 2008 season to make a run: if he can't do it, he's gone.

Chargers over Raiders, 30-17
My Pick: Chargers over Raiders, 24-12

Hey, I almost (not really) got the ratio on this one too! I confess, I don't know much about this game. LT played and scored. JaMarcus Russell started; apparently he did okay, tossing a laser touchdown at some point. The thing about the AFC West is, I don't care about those teams, and here's why: year after year, teams in the AFC West are broadcasting the blueprint for how not to run an NFL franchise. Think about it: the Broncos canned their defensive coordinator and yanked their quarterback on the bye week of a winning season, and have sucked ever since. They torpedo their runningbacks over and over again. They depress me. The Chargers canned their head coach and defensive coordinator after a 2-loss season and hired a guy with a miserable coaching record because their GM is an egomaniac. Then they give said egomaniac a lucrative extension after a disappointing 11-win season in which every member of the offense and the entire defense takes a huge step backwards. The Chiefs . . . don't get me started. Herm Edwards? Brodie Croyle? Who green-lighted the plan to move your only legitimate backfield depth after your star tailback carries a record workload and then holds out in the preseason? The Chiefs are a disaster. And then there's Oakland. Look, I like Lane Kiffin, I think he'll be a fine coach. I'm hoping for the best from JaMarcus Russell. But what else is there to be excited about on this team? Al Davis has taken this franchise through a decade of bone-headed, lame-brained moves that have done nothing but turn the Raiders into an after-thought, a laughing-stock of a franchise with no credibility whatsoever. From the moment he let Jon Gruden get away and wasted the draft picks they got for him, this franchise has been a joke with an increasingly tired punch-line. I'm hoping they turn it around, they'll have another high draft pick to get the job done, but for the umpteenth time in how many years, I'm looking at the Raiders roster and wondering where to start. They need a line in front of Russell, receivers who consistently show up and give a shit, and a shake-up on defense. They're still probably a year or two away from purging the culture of losing and not caring about it, and that's a big, big task. So the AFC West depresses me. I like the Chargers new uniforms! I'm secretly hoping they make a run and spend the next few years as a dominant contender . . . but I've seen Norv in action, so my expectations are low.

Jets over Chiefs, 13-10
My Pick: Jets over Chiefs by a small margin

And there you have it, the worst game of the season. I'm trying to think of late-season match-ups with more depressing teams, and the only thing close would be Miami/Baltimore AFTER Miami won their first game. The Jets stink, but despite all my venom aimed at Mangini this season, I think he can coach and I hope it works. They have NO game-breaking talent on their offense outside of Leon Washington, but you can't build an offense around him. They need several receivers, a tight-end, another runningback, and a more aggressive look to their offense. My hunch is that final piece will come when they have more players that can make it work, but in my estimation, they're getting by on savvy play-calling and trickery right now, and you saw how far that got 'em. Defensively, they've got to give up on the 3-4 defense. LISTEN UP, NFL COACHES AND COORDINATORS: there aren't many players who fit into a 3-4 defense in the world. Finding 3 massive, strong, high-motor players who can soak up blockers up front and disrupt plays in the backfield is unlikely, and finding depth is even less likely. In the meantime, all you're doing is wearing down your linebackers and wasting the talents of the linemen you do have. Furthermore, there are even fewer linebackers who can play inside on a 3-4, and fewer still who are game-changers. For a new coach to come in where there are players that are suited to a 4-3 and change it to a 3-4 is not only arrogant and wrong-headed, it's detrimental to your personnel. What makes Eric Mangini the 3-4 genius, anyway? This guy has been in football for all of 18 minutes, give it a rest! Coach to the strengths of your personnel, douchebag, who the hell do you think you are? See, every time I think about the Jets, I get angry at Eric Mangini. Stop the madness! I expect the Jets to spend the next few years at the bottom of the AFC East, right there with the Dolphins. But unlike Miami, they do have a young quarterback that looks like he could be a keeper. I like Kellen Clemens, I hope it works out.

Titans over Colts, 16-10
My Pick: Colts over Titans, 24-20

So the Titans get in and the Browns do not. Booooooo! The Titans are not playing good football these days, not at all. I can't see them putting a scare in anybody, not even the Chargers, except that Jeff Fisher is an awesome coach. The Colts played a skeleton crew of back-ups, but the difference between the Colts and the Bucs . . . well, there are many differences. For one, the Colts can turn it on and off, they're playoff tested and professional. Secondly, they didn't back into the playoffs, they were playing good football up until they pulled their starters on Sunday. Third, I trust Tony Dungy, Tom Moore, and Payton Manning to be able to get things going against just about any opponent, under just about any circumstances. So I don't hold it against them for taking week 17 off. I did, however, feel that they'd somehow betrayed the Cleveland Browns, and by extension, me, since I was rooting for the Browns to get in and felt that they'd make a better match-up and better story in a playoff game. Too bad. The Titans are in ugly, bad shape right now, with Vince Young going down again with a leg injury and the annoying ESPN-ites stirring the pot by wondering if Kerry Collins (Kerry Collins!) should be the guy in the playoffs. Are you kidding me? Kerry Collins is a turd. A nice guy, a competent back-up, but a turd nonetheless. I'll take a semi-hobbled and scattershot Vince Young, with a history of winning big games and a bright, bright future to think about, over a turd any day. But the real issue in Tennessee land is this: what do they do well offensively? I thought it was the ground game, but they haven't blown anybody's hair back of late. Their passing game is erratic. They've got a hell of a defense, especially against the run, which makes them interesting versus the Chargers, but beyond that, how can they move the ball and score? They need Vince Young to take another step in his progression as a quarterback if they want to make a run. Weeks and weeks ago, I predicted that the Titans tough AFC schedule would keep them from getting the tie-breaker from the Browns, but it turned out to be the case that the Browns loss to the Bengals did them in. Think of it this way: if they'd beaten the Bengals and lost to the 49ers, they'd be in. They crapped the bed in conference play down the stretch, and paid the price for it. The Titans, on the other hand, got a few AFC wins late and snuck in, and though they're playing bad football, the playoff experience is good for them and will serve them well down the road. Had both teams played their starters the whole way and this much had been on the line, this would have been an excellent end to the NFL regular season. As it was, I found it quite depressing. I was rooting for the Browns, what do you expect?

I'll have playoff picks up before Saturday, I swear.