There are a number of tough matchups in Week 11, and I foresee the possibility of another weekend full of road team dominance. Week 11 is a little late in the season to have so many games up in the air, but a full half of NFL teams have failed to establish a reliable identity, and injuries have decimated at least a third of NFL teams. I'm choosing to remain optimistic about this NFL season, though my thoughts for the poor, poor Redskins are significantly less so. With Carlos Rogers and Sean Taylor out, their secondary is in the crapper. Marcus Washington has been out for weeks. Their offensive line has been taking rotating shifts in the operating room since Week 1, James Thrash and Santana Moss are both hurt, and their coaching staff lost their brains and balls 9 weeks ago. Ah well.
And now, the picks!
New Orleans @ Houston
The Saints really need this win. The NFC South, the NFC, hell . . .the whole NFL needs New Orleans to pull this one out. They'll be going up against a hungry Houston team that's coming off their bye week and should have Andre Johnson back for the first time in ages. Matt Schaub is healthy. I don't know, this one might look easy, but I foresee a very discouraging loss for the Saints if they can't jump out to an early lead. In order to do that, they need Drew Brees to not SHIT THE MOTHERFUCKING BED FOR MY FANTASY TEAM. The NFC South and AFC West are the holdouts in offering any sort of hierarchy, so though the Saints sufferred an embarrassing loss to the Rams on Sunday, they can still pretty easily take their division and advance to the playoffs if they take care of business in their easy-as-pie second half schedule. Houston doesn't have much of a defense, and though their weapons are getting healthy, they don't really scare anybody on offense. I'll go out on a limb with the road team. This is a riskier pick than you think.
Saints over Texans, 34-27
Kansas City @ Indianapolis
I expect Indy to rebound from their embarrassing showing in San Diego and take care of business at home. They're really hurting right now, they have almost nobody left for Payton Manning to throw the ball to. With Larry Johnson out and Brodie Croyle starting for the Chiefs, I don't see them mustering much offense, and though the Colts are skeleton skinny at the moment, they should be able to put up 20 points in this one, which ought to be enough of a cushion for their still-tough defense.
Colts over Chiefs, 24-10
Oakland @ Minnesota
Jesus, this game has no value at all now that Adrian Peterson is down. Roger Goodell ought to call Lane Kiffin and Al Davis right this minute and insist they play JaMarcus Russell. If not, there's literally no reason to watch this game. I predict the game will be blacked out in Minnesota. The only reason for Vikings fans to fork over ticket money is to watch ADAP, and they sure as hell aren't coming out to watch the McCown-Fargas show. This game is a crapshoot, from a prediction standpoint. It's hard to know what direction the Vikings will go without their hero. They mailed it in against Green Bay, but Oakland is straight-up terrible. You know what? Take the fuckin' home team.
Vikings over Raiders, 10-7
New York Giants @ Detroit
In a season that has been thin on truly interesting matchups, this will have to do as Week 11's big game, and in truth, I'll be excited to watch it. The Lions need the win to take the upper hand in the Wild Card, and the Giants have the same need. Both teams disappointed in Week 10. I trust the Lions to be in better shape mentally after a tough road loss, simply because they're back home and they don't have the history of mental fragility that we've seen from this Giants team. In a way, I think the Giants are lucky to get a strong Lions team immediately after their disappointing home loss to the Cowboys; can you imagine this team going to St. Louis right now? That'd be a real death-trap for them, they'd almost certainly lose by 20 points. Going to Detroit, it'll be easy for Tom Coughlin to convince his guys to get up for this game. Nevertheless, I am expecting the patented Coughlin-coached New York blow-up, and because they're on the road, it's that much easier for me to pick against them.
Lions over Giants, 28-20 with a major injury to a key guy on New York.
Miami @ Philadelphia
I expect the Eagles to win this game and get back to .500. They haven't gotten jack out of their home fans this year. That's right, I said it, you Philly assholes. You've hurt your team consistently since week 2. Pull your heads out of your asses, quit booing one of the best players in your miserable franchise's mostly embarrassing history, and give your home team a boost for a change. I hope McNabb tosses a handful of scores and gives you the one-finger salute after each one.
On the other hand, if the Eagles lose, either McNabb will be benced or Reid will be fired.
Eagles over Dolphins, 31-17
San Diego @ Jacksonville
I'm not going to be the corny guy who jumps back on the Chargers bandwagon after that awful game they took from the Colts. Philip Rivers looks like a real piece of shit, especially when he's throwing the ball backwards in his endzone. I loathe the Jaguars, but I think I might have to get back to my never-picking-the-Chargers ways. If they take this game, they will have finally given some clarity to that terrible, terrible division they play in. Then again, David Garrard might go for the Jags, who just trounced the Titans on Sunday and are still fighting for the wild-card. I don't expect the Jags to get much of a home boost, but I also don't expect the Chargers to know how to count to ten.
Jaguars over Chargers, 24-20
Arizona @ Cincinnati
A matchup of pre-season hopefuls who've been ruined, to varying degrees, by injuries and inconsitency. The Bengals are as healthy as they'll ever be on offense, one would hope that might translate to touchdowns sooner or later. The Cards, on the other hand, are still playing tough and hoping the chips fall right for them out west. I like both offenses to have big games, I think Arizona has the better defense, but in the end, I think the insertion of a healthy and productive Chris Henry into Cincinnati's offense gives them the edge. That, and home field.
Bengals over Cardinals, 28-24
Cleveland @ Baltimore
Cleveland has not been a great road team this season, but they did take a win in St. Louis. I don't know that that means much, but its something. They beat Baltimore at home, they have the better weapons on offense, the momentum, they're healthier, and damn it, I just like them a lot more than the Ravens. They can keep pace in the Wild Card and further line up the AFC North with a nice win here, and I think they'll pull it off. Here's the formula: if the Browns score 20 points, they win. They just put 28 up in Pittsburgh, that should be no problem.
Browns over Ravens, 27-19
Carolina @ Green Bay
The Packers are just rolling along now, I don't see any reason the Panthers should win this game. If I take the Packers out of the context of this NFL season, they win this game in a landslide. I'm hoping the "no team outside of New England is immune from the horribly disappointing upset loss" bug that seems to have infected the NFL this season doesn't make it's way to the frozen tundra. The only hope the Panthers have is if they successfully run the ball all day long and finish their drives in the endzone, and then somehow manage to get a great performance out of their underperforming defense. Do they have the pieces? Sure. Will they pull it off in Green Bay, one of the tougher places for road teams to play? Nah, I don't think so.
Packers over Panthers, 21-14
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
This is a great opportunity for the Bucs to really get back in the playoff picture. If they win, they have a strong two-game lead in the South. Coming off their bye week against a pretty horrid Falcons team, I think Jon Gruden's professional bunch will take care of business.
Bucs over Falcons, 28-7 Yeah, I mean REALLY take care of business.
Pittsburgh @ New York Jets
I'll give you a few reasons to watch this game: 1) Pittsburgh is a fun team to watch. They look like they're enjoying themselves of late. 2) Ben Roethlisberger has been outstanding this season. 3) Kellen Clemens is a little exciting. I think this kid has a bright future, and coming off of a bye week that included Clemens getting all the first team snaps for the first time in his NFL career, we'll learn a little more about him in this one. 4) 5 of the Jets final 7 games are against teams with serious playoff hopes. Things could get really, really ugly in New York. Or, OR they could ride their young quarterback and relish the role of spoiler. Does it start at home in week 11? Hell no.
Steelers over Jets, 31-16
Chicago @ Seattle
Chicago could win this game. Traveling to Seattle has not been very easy for NFL teams, and the Bears are about as hurt and out of contention as it gets in the NFC, but they've got some toughness. The Seahawks think they've solved their problems by going pass happy down the stretch, but I've got news for them: November and December are not really the months in which you get away from the running game. I don't really believe in the Sea-jacks, but I'm giving them the nod because I'm really sick of parity. There, I said it.
Seahawks over Bears, 21-19
Washington @ Dallas
The Redskins are too banged up to win this game. Their secondary is too short on pieces. Their offensive line is too thin and awful. Their playcalling is too wimpy and their focus is too fragile. They're unlikely to adjust their defensive scheme, meaning Tony Romo and the Cowboys will execute the crossing patterns (that have become the best part of their offense) to perfection. Washington's fans, coaches, and players really really want to beat Dallas, but they don't have the pieces to make it happen. The Skins are looking at their second streak of the season, this one of the losing variety, and you can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye, as the Eagles will have tied them at 5-5 after week 11. Look, I want to be optimistic about this game, and I'm not saying the Redskins need hell to freeze over to pull off the upset, but I can't see it happening. I just hope it isn't a bloodbath like the last time the Skins traveled to a juggernaut's playground.
Cowboys over Redskins, 35-20
St. Louis @ San Francisco
The Rams are the better team, therefore they will win. I could beat the 49ers myself. No team in the NFL is playing worse than San Francisco, they'll be lucky to win again this season. If they are to have any chance of getting that all-important, elusive third win, this is the game. They won't do it. One subplot of this awful garbage: the NFL is really wishing the best teams outside of New York, New England, Philadelphia, Chicago, Washington, and Dallas, were all on the west coast. Week after week, nationally televised games are going to crappy, unwatchable NFC and AFC West teams because they play in the Pacific Time Zone. What a shame.
Rams over 49ers, 30-17
New England @ Buffalo
Buffalo picked the wrong part of the season to be a game over .500. They'll pay dearly for that.
Patriots over Bills, 45-14
Tennessee @ Denver
As much as I want this game to go to the Titans, here's what I see happening: Vince Young plays poorly against the Broncos secondary, torpedoing a successful ground game by turning the ball over. Instead of keeping pace with the Jaguars, the Titans drop a disappointing road loss and are suddenly hanging onto the edge of the playoff picture. Jay Cutler has another nice game, playing on a mostly short field, and the Broncos get another clutch kick from Jason Elam to steal a win. Rather than a defined AFC West, we have the 5-5 Chargers tied with the miserable 5-5 Broncos, and we're doomed to another 6 weeks of trying to ignore those hideous, awful teams out west. Boooooooo.
Ok, ignore everything I just said. I will not allow that outcome. No way. Titans win! Titans win! Titans win!
Titans over Broncos, 17-13
This is a tough week, with a number of toss-up games. I've been steadily above .500 for most of the season, and my scores have been pretty close. My entire fantasy league took it on the chin on Sunday, but I've inserted Stephen Jackson into my starting lineup for the injured Adrian Peterson, and I'm hoping for a buy-low boost. I'll probably have more thoughts later in the week.
Go Skynards.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Monday, November 12, 2007
Knee-Slapping NFL Humor!
You've got to love the sense of humor of that NFL! Just when they had us all thinking the league was ironing itself out, week 10 comes around! Road teams go 9-4! Upsets abound! The playoff picture is muddier than ever! Nuyk nyuk nyuk. Very funny. This weekend also saw some of the ugliest offensive performances of the whole season.
And now, the recap:
Atlanta over Carolina, 20-13
My Pick: Carolina over Atlanta, 19-16
In the end, Carolina just can't move the ball at all. They're also winless at home this season, which is just pathetic. Atlanta got just enough on offense to finish off the hapless Panthers. Both of these teams should be in the hunt for Derek Anderson. In fact, let's talk about this. Chutnee and I watched the Skins together on Sunday, and we linked up to NFL.com and sportingnews.com for assorted gamecasts and such. We discussed the Derek Anderson situation briefly, listing the teams we thought would either fit Anderson nicely or would make a move on him in the offseason. I count Atlanta, Carolina, Minnesota, Kansas City, Baltimore, Chicago, San Francisco, and Cleveland. There are probably others. But it occurred to me that the best possible situation for both Anderson and the team around him would be either to stay in Cleveland and have the Browns trade Brady Quinn or to go to Detroit. Yes, I know Kitna has been awesome for Detroit, but he's not much of a long-term solution. Detroit has the big, athletic targets Anderson has been thriving with in Cleveland, Anderson has the arm, pocket presence, and cajones to succeed in the Martz system.
Also, this was the last gasp for Carolina's playoff hopes.
Green Bay over Minnesota, 34-0
My Pick: Green Bay over Minnesota, 27-17
Yikes, what a bloodbath. Green Bay finally had a good running game, this time from Ryan Grant, who is absolutely NOT the long-term answer at tailback for the Packers. Why was he successful? Did it have anything to do with the Packers throwing the ball 48 times? You make the call. Adrian "Scariest Tailback in the NFL" Peterson went down with a knee injury, MRI results are pending. Talking heads will say the Vikings really need Adrian Peterson healthy, which is true. More importantly, the NFL really needs a healthy Adrian Peterson, and I'll give you two reasons: 1) he's the most exciting player in the NFL, and 2) the NFL does not want to give the rookie of the year award to a guy who stopped playing after nine games. Anyway, the Packers are just kicking ass right now. Did you see the ball Brett Favre delivered on a platter to the Minnesota secondary in the endzone? You know the one, the one the Minnesota secondary delivered on a platter to the Green Bay receiver. Two effing defensive backs put their hands on that ball and coughed it right up to whats-his-face in the endzone. Nice. Those are the breaks you get on your way to 8-1. Go Packers.
Denver over Kansas City, 27-11
My Pick: Denver over Kansas City, 13-6
I don't have much to say about this. I thought Denver would win, they pulled it off, yippie. Kansas City stinks, they definitely stink without Larry Johnson. Brandon Marshall had a nice game. Selvin Young had a nice game. Jay Cutler was fine. Denver's defense did the job.
Buffalo over Miami, 13-10
My Pick: Buffalo over Miami, 31-20
Not the offensive explosion I predicted, but the result was there. Not very encouraging that the Bills needed a safety, a two point conversion, and a game-winning last-minute field goal to take down the miserable Dolphins, who are the league's last, best hope for a winless team in 2007. Marshawn Lynch never really got going, J. P. Losman got off to a really bad start, but Buffalo's defense was able to keep Miami from capitalizing and in the end the Bills improved to 5-4, winning the fifth game in six. Now they get to get creamed by New England.
St. Louis over New Orleans, 37-29
My Pick: New Orleans over St. Louis, 35-24
You know, it was bound to happen. St. Louis still has some nice weapons. Frankly, I'm happy with this result. You know why? I get sick of listening to NFL-types talk about the Saints being a top five NFC team. I know its slim pickings, but we're talking about a team that started 0-4 and got healthy by beating Seattle, Atlanta, San Francisco, and Jacksonville (with Quinn Gray). They could make the playoffs, but only because they have the easiest second half schedule in the NFL. Why would the 4-4 Saints be a stronger team than the 5-3 Redskins? Because people don't know what the fuck they're talking about. Bad Drew Brees played in the first half, followed by mediocre Drew Brees in the second half. Why is that significant? Because I plugged him in to cover Tom Brady's bye, figuring on a strong showing against the weak Rams defense. Boooooooooooo.
Pittsburgh over Cleveland, 31-28
My Pick: Pittsburgh over Cleveland, 38-31
Yup. Nailed it. Great game, by the way. Both teams played their asses off. Cleveland made the most of some early Pittsburgh turnovers, and Pittsburgh showed the will to overcome the slow start and storm back in the second half. Great, great game. Somehow I thought I'd have more to say about this. The Browns are hurt by the fact that Buffalo won and Tennessee lost. Had Buffalo lost and Tennessee won, the Browns would be tied with the Jaguars for the wild card with the easier second half schedule. Ah well, I love 'em.
Jacksonville over Tennessee, 28-13
My Pick: Tennessee over Jacksonville, 14-10
Yuk. Yuk yuk yuk. Tennessee got nothing from their offense until the game was already out of reach. Their defense decided they couldn't do jack without Albert Haynesworth and let the Jags run wild. Quinn Gray did almost nothing to win the game, but he didn't turn the ball over. This is a perfect example of letting a team off the mat. What a disappointment for the Titans. Vince Young continues to struggle, and there were a few throws in the game that defied explanation. Tennessee is now in a tie for the wild-card with their division foe, and neither team has much of a cake-walk on their schedule.
Philadelphia over Washington, 33-25
My Pick: Washington over Philadelphia, 28-17
You know, I realize it seems like an offensive explosion for the Redskins when they put up 25 points in a game. Inexplicably, the defense let them down. Jason Campbell passed extremely well, going 23-34 for 215 yards, three scores, and no picks. Clinton Portis ran well. The Skins moved the ball up and down the field the whole second half, but were undone by a pair of lost fumbles and the passive play-calling of Gregg Williams. I can't understand the lack of creativity on the Redskins defense in the last 4 weeks. The 4-man rush worked against the kamikaze Detroit offense. It worked against the pass-heavy Packers. It only worked for 3 quarters against the Cardinals. Why? Because NFL teams have these things called "eyes", which they use to figure out what their opponents are up to. You can't use the exact same defensive look for 5 consecutive weeks in this league. What happened against the Patriots? They got exposed. Hell, even I could gameplan against the Skins defense after watching it for 3 weeks. Did the Skins use a different look against the Jets after getting torched by the Pats? No, and they nearly lost that game too. Did they mix it up against the Eagles? No, and its no coincidence they lost the game. Also, the Skins have no quick-hit in their offense at all, especially without Santana Moss. The only way they can score is either off of turnovers, good special teams, or by plodding down the field. I love a long drive, but every once in a while a team needs to be able to strike quickly, and the Skins can't do it. At any rate, now the Skins have to try to stay above .500 by beating the Cowboys in Dallas next week. Yikes.
Cincinnati over Baltimore, 21-7
My Pick: Cincinnati over Baltimore, 28-13
You know, if they'd played just one more quarter, I would have nailed the final score. As it is, I had this one pegged. I did not predict seven field goals for the Bengals, but I figured they'd get the win simply by virtue of the fact that they have any success at all in moving the ball and scoring points, whereas Baltimore sucks. With six losses, Cincinnati can forget about the post-season, but I dare say there aren't more than 3 or 4 guys on the whole team that aren't playing for their jobs next year. Carson Palmer . . .there are probably 2-3 others. I'll be interested what this team can do in the second half with a fully healthy and eligible offense. As for Baltimore, they really need offensive help. They have the most underwhelming receiving corps in the NFL, and they're wasting the prime of Todd Heap's career by tossing him out there as the only guy who scares anyone's secondary. They need a quarterback, and neither McNair nor Boller is the answer.
Arizona over Detroit, 31-21
My Pick: Arizona over Detroit, 23-20
I'm not saying Detroit is a bad team, just a bad road team. Also, Mike Martz undermined his team again by abandoning the run. Just when this team was turning into a balanced, versatile offense, Martz's ego costs them a win. Seriously, -18 rushing yards rushing? That's what you want. Can't somebody just steal this guy's playbook and kick his ass to the curb? For crying out loud. As for Arizona, the NFC West is so effing terrible, they could very well still win the division. I'd really prefer that to the Seahawks taking it. I'm adding Larry Fitzgerald to my fantasy roster.
Dallas over New York Giants, 31-20
My Pick: New York Giants over Dallas, 27-20
Great win for the Cowboys, and they looked great getting it. Romo was efficient and effective. TO was explosive. The running game was productive. Then managed to neutralize the Giants pass-rush and get plenty of pressure on Eli Manning. As for the Giants, here's loss 1. If they lose in Detroit next week, the collapse will be underway by the time they get to the team bus. If this team has any hope of having success in the playoffs, this will be the key. Everyone, including me, is predicting a blow-up as soon as this team puts consecutive losses together. If they prove me wrong, it could be the difference between success in the playoffs and Tom Coughlin losing his job.
Chicago over Oakland, 17-6
My Pick: Chicago over Oakland, 20-13
Yep, this game sure did happen. Not that anyone cares or was watching. Rex Grossman played; did you know that? Yeah, he threw a touchdown! Wow!
San Diego over Indianapolis, 23-21
My Pick: Indianapolis over San Diego, 34-21
Antonio Cromartie is a hell of a player. Neither team did enough to win this game. If a streaker had run out on the field and dodged two NFL security personnel guys, he would have taken a well-deserved victory. Indy did everything they could to give this one away. Philip Rivers, ever the champion of fair-play, did everything in his power to hand it right back. People will say this one came down to Payton Manning tossing a career high and franchise record six interceptions, or Adam Vinatieri shanking a couple of field-goals, including a potential game-winning 29 yarder, but in my opinion Antonio Cromartie won this game. I choose to say the game came down to someone playing well, and since nobody else played well, I'm giving credit to Cromartie, who has emerged as a brilliant playmaker. Good for him. The Chargers may now slink away with their AFC West title. Hang your heads, San Diego fans, in shame.
Seattle over San Francisco, 24-0
My Pick: Seattle over San Francisco, 41-10
Wow, what a hideous game. Six first downs for the 49ers! The 49ers are last in the NFL in most offensive categories; first downs per game, yards per game, passing yards per game, points per game, pretty much everything but rushing, and they really aren't even close to the rest of the NFL. Physically, they don't scare anybody with their weapons, either. Vernon Davis is big and fast, but they've failed to develop him into a weapon. Frank Gore is quick, tough, and explosive, but he's got no running lanes because nobody is afraid of the Niners passing game. I'm not going to say Arnaz Battle, Darrell Jackson, and Ashlie Lelie are bad receivers, but they sure don't scare anybody. The offensive line has been terrible. Again, I won't be the guy to say Alex Smith is a bad player, but he's not doing much to silence those who are. Earlier in the season, Frank Gore commented that some of the guys on the Niners weren't confident in the playcalling of their offensive coordinator. Now the 49ers are in a situation where they probably need a lot of change in the offseason in order to get on track, and I imagine offensive coordinator will be one of those changes. But on the other hand, do they really want their first overall pick quarterback to have to adjust to another offensive system headed into his fourth season? Or do they pull the plug on him altogether? What a mess in San Francisco. As for Seattle, they made the right move by pulling Alexander and going with Morris. I think Alexander is done as a starting caliber running back in the NFL. Hasselbeck didn't have a brilliant night, but he managed the game, put points on the board, and spread the ball around. Sickeningly, it looks like the NFC West can join the ranks of NFL divisions that now seem to have some shape, ugly though that shape may be. Two of the NFL's worst teams play in the NFC West, as well as the de facto worst division winner in the NFL.
Week 11 picks coming later. Despite this weekend's wackiness, I still finished over .500 with the picks, a respectable 8-6. Huzzah!
And now, the recap:
Atlanta over Carolina, 20-13
My Pick: Carolina over Atlanta, 19-16
In the end, Carolina just can't move the ball at all. They're also winless at home this season, which is just pathetic. Atlanta got just enough on offense to finish off the hapless Panthers. Both of these teams should be in the hunt for Derek Anderson. In fact, let's talk about this. Chutnee and I watched the Skins together on Sunday, and we linked up to NFL.com and sportingnews.com for assorted gamecasts and such. We discussed the Derek Anderson situation briefly, listing the teams we thought would either fit Anderson nicely or would make a move on him in the offseason. I count Atlanta, Carolina, Minnesota, Kansas City, Baltimore, Chicago, San Francisco, and Cleveland. There are probably others. But it occurred to me that the best possible situation for both Anderson and the team around him would be either to stay in Cleveland and have the Browns trade Brady Quinn or to go to Detroit. Yes, I know Kitna has been awesome for Detroit, but he's not much of a long-term solution. Detroit has the big, athletic targets Anderson has been thriving with in Cleveland, Anderson has the arm, pocket presence, and cajones to succeed in the Martz system.
Also, this was the last gasp for Carolina's playoff hopes.
Green Bay over Minnesota, 34-0
My Pick: Green Bay over Minnesota, 27-17
Yikes, what a bloodbath. Green Bay finally had a good running game, this time from Ryan Grant, who is absolutely NOT the long-term answer at tailback for the Packers. Why was he successful? Did it have anything to do with the Packers throwing the ball 48 times? You make the call. Adrian "Scariest Tailback in the NFL" Peterson went down with a knee injury, MRI results are pending. Talking heads will say the Vikings really need Adrian Peterson healthy, which is true. More importantly, the NFL really needs a healthy Adrian Peterson, and I'll give you two reasons: 1) he's the most exciting player in the NFL, and 2) the NFL does not want to give the rookie of the year award to a guy who stopped playing after nine games. Anyway, the Packers are just kicking ass right now. Did you see the ball Brett Favre delivered on a platter to the Minnesota secondary in the endzone? You know the one, the one the Minnesota secondary delivered on a platter to the Green Bay receiver. Two effing defensive backs put their hands on that ball and coughed it right up to whats-his-face in the endzone. Nice. Those are the breaks you get on your way to 8-1. Go Packers.
Denver over Kansas City, 27-11
My Pick: Denver over Kansas City, 13-6
I don't have much to say about this. I thought Denver would win, they pulled it off, yippie. Kansas City stinks, they definitely stink without Larry Johnson. Brandon Marshall had a nice game. Selvin Young had a nice game. Jay Cutler was fine. Denver's defense did the job.
Buffalo over Miami, 13-10
My Pick: Buffalo over Miami, 31-20
Not the offensive explosion I predicted, but the result was there. Not very encouraging that the Bills needed a safety, a two point conversion, and a game-winning last-minute field goal to take down the miserable Dolphins, who are the league's last, best hope for a winless team in 2007. Marshawn Lynch never really got going, J. P. Losman got off to a really bad start, but Buffalo's defense was able to keep Miami from capitalizing and in the end the Bills improved to 5-4, winning the fifth game in six. Now they get to get creamed by New England.
St. Louis over New Orleans, 37-29
My Pick: New Orleans over St. Louis, 35-24
You know, it was bound to happen. St. Louis still has some nice weapons. Frankly, I'm happy with this result. You know why? I get sick of listening to NFL-types talk about the Saints being a top five NFC team. I know its slim pickings, but we're talking about a team that started 0-4 and got healthy by beating Seattle, Atlanta, San Francisco, and Jacksonville (with Quinn Gray). They could make the playoffs, but only because they have the easiest second half schedule in the NFL. Why would the 4-4 Saints be a stronger team than the 5-3 Redskins? Because people don't know what the fuck they're talking about. Bad Drew Brees played in the first half, followed by mediocre Drew Brees in the second half. Why is that significant? Because I plugged him in to cover Tom Brady's bye, figuring on a strong showing against the weak Rams defense. Boooooooooooo.
Pittsburgh over Cleveland, 31-28
My Pick: Pittsburgh over Cleveland, 38-31
Yup. Nailed it. Great game, by the way. Both teams played their asses off. Cleveland made the most of some early Pittsburgh turnovers, and Pittsburgh showed the will to overcome the slow start and storm back in the second half. Great, great game. Somehow I thought I'd have more to say about this. The Browns are hurt by the fact that Buffalo won and Tennessee lost. Had Buffalo lost and Tennessee won, the Browns would be tied with the Jaguars for the wild card with the easier second half schedule. Ah well, I love 'em.
Jacksonville over Tennessee, 28-13
My Pick: Tennessee over Jacksonville, 14-10
Yuk. Yuk yuk yuk. Tennessee got nothing from their offense until the game was already out of reach. Their defense decided they couldn't do jack without Albert Haynesworth and let the Jags run wild. Quinn Gray did almost nothing to win the game, but he didn't turn the ball over. This is a perfect example of letting a team off the mat. What a disappointment for the Titans. Vince Young continues to struggle, and there were a few throws in the game that defied explanation. Tennessee is now in a tie for the wild-card with their division foe, and neither team has much of a cake-walk on their schedule.
Philadelphia over Washington, 33-25
My Pick: Washington over Philadelphia, 28-17
You know, I realize it seems like an offensive explosion for the Redskins when they put up 25 points in a game. Inexplicably, the defense let them down. Jason Campbell passed extremely well, going 23-34 for 215 yards, three scores, and no picks. Clinton Portis ran well. The Skins moved the ball up and down the field the whole second half, but were undone by a pair of lost fumbles and the passive play-calling of Gregg Williams. I can't understand the lack of creativity on the Redskins defense in the last 4 weeks. The 4-man rush worked against the kamikaze Detroit offense. It worked against the pass-heavy Packers. It only worked for 3 quarters against the Cardinals. Why? Because NFL teams have these things called "eyes", which they use to figure out what their opponents are up to. You can't use the exact same defensive look for 5 consecutive weeks in this league. What happened against the Patriots? They got exposed. Hell, even I could gameplan against the Skins defense after watching it for 3 weeks. Did the Skins use a different look against the Jets after getting torched by the Pats? No, and they nearly lost that game too. Did they mix it up against the Eagles? No, and its no coincidence they lost the game. Also, the Skins have no quick-hit in their offense at all, especially without Santana Moss. The only way they can score is either off of turnovers, good special teams, or by plodding down the field. I love a long drive, but every once in a while a team needs to be able to strike quickly, and the Skins can't do it. At any rate, now the Skins have to try to stay above .500 by beating the Cowboys in Dallas next week. Yikes.
Cincinnati over Baltimore, 21-7
My Pick: Cincinnati over Baltimore, 28-13
You know, if they'd played just one more quarter, I would have nailed the final score. As it is, I had this one pegged. I did not predict seven field goals for the Bengals, but I figured they'd get the win simply by virtue of the fact that they have any success at all in moving the ball and scoring points, whereas Baltimore sucks. With six losses, Cincinnati can forget about the post-season, but I dare say there aren't more than 3 or 4 guys on the whole team that aren't playing for their jobs next year. Carson Palmer . . .there are probably 2-3 others. I'll be interested what this team can do in the second half with a fully healthy and eligible offense. As for Baltimore, they really need offensive help. They have the most underwhelming receiving corps in the NFL, and they're wasting the prime of Todd Heap's career by tossing him out there as the only guy who scares anyone's secondary. They need a quarterback, and neither McNair nor Boller is the answer.
Arizona over Detroit, 31-21
My Pick: Arizona over Detroit, 23-20
I'm not saying Detroit is a bad team, just a bad road team. Also, Mike Martz undermined his team again by abandoning the run. Just when this team was turning into a balanced, versatile offense, Martz's ego costs them a win. Seriously, -18 rushing yards rushing? That's what you want. Can't somebody just steal this guy's playbook and kick his ass to the curb? For crying out loud. As for Arizona, the NFC West is so effing terrible, they could very well still win the division. I'd really prefer that to the Seahawks taking it. I'm adding Larry Fitzgerald to my fantasy roster.
Dallas over New York Giants, 31-20
My Pick: New York Giants over Dallas, 27-20
Great win for the Cowboys, and they looked great getting it. Romo was efficient and effective. TO was explosive. The running game was productive. Then managed to neutralize the Giants pass-rush and get plenty of pressure on Eli Manning. As for the Giants, here's loss 1. If they lose in Detroit next week, the collapse will be underway by the time they get to the team bus. If this team has any hope of having success in the playoffs, this will be the key. Everyone, including me, is predicting a blow-up as soon as this team puts consecutive losses together. If they prove me wrong, it could be the difference between success in the playoffs and Tom Coughlin losing his job.
Chicago over Oakland, 17-6
My Pick: Chicago over Oakland, 20-13
Yep, this game sure did happen. Not that anyone cares or was watching. Rex Grossman played; did you know that? Yeah, he threw a touchdown! Wow!
San Diego over Indianapolis, 23-21
My Pick: Indianapolis over San Diego, 34-21
Antonio Cromartie is a hell of a player. Neither team did enough to win this game. If a streaker had run out on the field and dodged two NFL security personnel guys, he would have taken a well-deserved victory. Indy did everything they could to give this one away. Philip Rivers, ever the champion of fair-play, did everything in his power to hand it right back. People will say this one came down to Payton Manning tossing a career high and franchise record six interceptions, or Adam Vinatieri shanking a couple of field-goals, including a potential game-winning 29 yarder, but in my opinion Antonio Cromartie won this game. I choose to say the game came down to someone playing well, and since nobody else played well, I'm giving credit to Cromartie, who has emerged as a brilliant playmaker. Good for him. The Chargers may now slink away with their AFC West title. Hang your heads, San Diego fans, in shame.
Seattle over San Francisco, 24-0
My Pick: Seattle over San Francisco, 41-10
Wow, what a hideous game. Six first downs for the 49ers! The 49ers are last in the NFL in most offensive categories; first downs per game, yards per game, passing yards per game, points per game, pretty much everything but rushing, and they really aren't even close to the rest of the NFL. Physically, they don't scare anybody with their weapons, either. Vernon Davis is big and fast, but they've failed to develop him into a weapon. Frank Gore is quick, tough, and explosive, but he's got no running lanes because nobody is afraid of the Niners passing game. I'm not going to say Arnaz Battle, Darrell Jackson, and Ashlie Lelie are bad receivers, but they sure don't scare anybody. The offensive line has been terrible. Again, I won't be the guy to say Alex Smith is a bad player, but he's not doing much to silence those who are. Earlier in the season, Frank Gore commented that some of the guys on the Niners weren't confident in the playcalling of their offensive coordinator. Now the 49ers are in a situation where they probably need a lot of change in the offseason in order to get on track, and I imagine offensive coordinator will be one of those changes. But on the other hand, do they really want their first overall pick quarterback to have to adjust to another offensive system headed into his fourth season? Or do they pull the plug on him altogether? What a mess in San Francisco. As for Seattle, they made the right move by pulling Alexander and going with Morris. I think Alexander is done as a starting caliber running back in the NFL. Hasselbeck didn't have a brilliant night, but he managed the game, put points on the board, and spread the ball around. Sickeningly, it looks like the NFC West can join the ranks of NFL divisions that now seem to have some shape, ugly though that shape may be. Two of the NFL's worst teams play in the NFC West, as well as the de facto worst division winner in the NFL.
Week 11 picks coming later. Despite this weekend's wackiness, I still finished over .500 with the picks, a respectable 8-6. Huzzah!
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