Tony Romo: A Clown's Clown

If you haven't watched the Game of the Week on NFL.com yet. Do it. It's good for a few reasons:

1. Any time the Redskins get the NFL Films treatment, hey, good times.
2. Those astute NFL films editors did a fantastic job of illustrating the extent to which Tony Romo was obviously forcing the ball to Terrell Owens throughout the game. Romo was staring Owens down on a lot of throws, and they make a point of highlighting some of those in the recap. Good job.
3. Unlike many NFL observers, a lot of media assholes, and the entire Dallas fan-base, NFL Films took note of the fact that the late Dallas touchdown was nothing more than window-dressing. From now on, NFL Films, we're tight. We're like this.
4. Without a doubt, the single best and most illuminating part of the entire recap is a quick shot of Tony Romo on the sidelines after the Cowboys scored on the opening drive of the third quarter. This is a priceless little glimpse at what makes Tony Romo a shit-ass loser, why he's not capable of leading on this Cowboys team, why he can't win playoff games, and why he gets bullied around by his receivers, fans across the nation, and the sports media at large, even while they're sucking his balls. After his offense has been on the field for only about a third of the total game, after his defense spent the first half getting bent over and forcibly sodomized, after the Redskins defense had only been on the field for something like 10 minutes of game time and had given up one of Dallas's scoring drives by going to a 3-man rush Prevent defense, this douchebag, this sorry, sad-sack piece of worthless Fantasy Stat garbage has the gall to tell his teammates on the sidelines, "These guys are tired. That was . . . they're done. We can do whatever now."

Hey Romo, what game were you watching?

Fuckin' stat boy. Gimme a break. This guy's offense has managed two decent drives sandwiched around half-time, they have a total of like 15 yards rushing, and they've been on the field for something like 13 of the game's 35 minutes to that point, and he thinks Washington's defense is tired? Done? Does this guy know a damn thing about football? I say no. Maybe that's why he came out and fired an ugly duckling of an interception in his next series. Because he's crap, and all his success comes out of the fact that he's got an innovative offensive system, the biggest offensive line in the world, one Hall of Fame receiver, and an elite tight end. He's got all day in the pocket against most teams, and stares down his targets. He's crap.

Here's what separates a team leader from a stat-boy piece of useless shit like Tony Romo. After his team scores to draw even with a division opponent in a game in which they've been thoroughly dominated on both sides of the ball, a leader is walking around the sidelines, getting in his teammates' ears, firing them up, keeping them focused, warning them that it's not over, or he's pouring over the playbook with coaches. A douchebag, a fan, a total loser like Romo is sitting on his ass with a smug look on his face, making bold proclamations that fly in the face of virtually all evidence on the field. I doubt even semi-savvy Dallas fans (notoriously among the more absurd, least knowledgable fans in football) would have made such a ridiculous statement at that point in the game. Unbelievable. Nothing in the world makes me more confident in stating that the Cowboys will yet again fail to go deep in the playoffs than the fact that Tony "Don't Know Much About Football" Romo is their quarterback.

Week 5 Magic!

First, a few things I have to say.

1. Good news on the Anquan Boldin front. It looks like he'll be fine. That was one hell of a shot he took Sunday afternoon.
2. Man, what a horrible bit of news to open the newspaper to regarding Jacksonville defensive lineman Richard Collier. I mean, this news made me lose my appetite for a whole day. Poor guy. One day, you're a young player on a pro football team with a promising season and career ahead of you, then a couple weeks later you're paralyzed from the waste down and have had your leg amputated. Really, this poor guy. Richard Collier deserves some serious wonderful shit in his life after going through this. Not only will this guy not play football again, he went from being a brilliant athlete to being a paralyzed amputee who will absolutely never walk again in his life. I mean, thank God he survived being shot 14 times, but damn.
3. The Raiders don't play this Sunday, so you might think I would have to take a pass on crapping all over Al Davis. In fact, that's a large part of the reason why Davis chose to act this week. Of course, giving his team 2 weeks to prepare under a new head coach is part of the deal, but let's not pretend this guy wasn't trying to slide this in as close to under the radar as possible by doing it when a weekend of NFL football could divert attention. Al Davis is one of the scummiest assholes in human history. What a piece of shit, through and through. It's not enough to threaten to fire a guy for almost a year. It's not enough to publicly embarrass your team week after week in a young season. It isn't even enough to interview members of your head coach's staff for his position before firing him. No, apparently the only sufficient way to win a battle of wills with a guy is to go before the media and rant like a big, ugly baby, call him a disgrace to the organization and a liar. Even if Kiffin is a liar, even if he has disgraced the organization, man what kind of piece of shit loser has such a small useless dick that he has to make sure the sports media at large knows the ins and outs. I couldn't have less respect for Al Davis if he were the Vice Presidential nominee on John McCain's ticket. And as for Tom Cable, look; so you want to be an NFL head coach, great. Interview for your boss's job before he's been fired in the midst of one of the all-time tackiest, ugliest, most pathetic exercises in the absolute misuse of the power of ownership, then accept the job with a big shit-eating grin on your face. I hope you enjoy exile, dick. When Davis cans your ass for the next future-former head coach of the Raiders, you'll be lucky to get a job serving hot-dogs in the NFL.
And that's all I have to say about that, other than I feel really bad for Oakland's players. They don't need this crap. As if playing an NFL season isn't enough to worry about.

And now, the magic picks!

Tennessee @ Baltimore
The Line: Tennessee by 3
It's tempting to pick Tennessee. Obviously, Jeff Fisher is the better coach. Obviously, the Titans are the better team. Obviously, they've got more momentum and a stronger identity. For many, many reasons, the Titans are the favorites and they represent the better pick.
On the other hand, the Ravens are at home. More importantly, I imagine the veterans on Baltimore's roster have had a look at their schedule and the division standings in the AFC North. They just played the Steelers; they now know the Steelers are beatable. They've already dunked Cincinnati and Cleveland. They're starting to realize you don't have to be especially good at all to win the AFC North. You really don't. You just have to play hard, stay in games, and be healthy. With the Steelers on death's door, health-wise, this division could very well go to a 9-7 team. Why not us, they're asking? We're 2-1. Our defense is sound. Our running game is solid. We're even getting a contribution from our rookie quarterback. Certainly, we've made the playoffs and, hell, even won a Super Bowl with this much going for us!
Now, the Titans are not pushovers, but the Ravens are looking for a statement game. They thought they had it on the road in Pittsburgh, but it got away from them. Now, they're at home, pissed off, hungry, and facing a Tennessee team that, while quite good, hasn't played a single team that was both any good at all and healthy at the same time. In Baltimore, I like the Ravens. I really do. I see them bottling up what passes for an offense in Tennessee, running around like frothing, rabid Rottweilers on defense, and taking advantage of Kerry Collins' first poor outing of the season. Ravens win! Ravens win! Ravens win!
And . . . I think they'll compete for the division all year long. That's a whole different blog entry.
Ravens over Titans, 16-13

Kansas City @ Carolina
The Line: Carolina by 9.5
It should be a 10 point game. It really should. Kansas City is awful. On the road, you'd expect them to be even worse.
Hey, I'm not sold on Carolina either. I think they're a good team, a much improved team from last season and finally (finally!) healthy. Of all teams in the NFL, I like Carolina the least at home, but they're still at home. Dammit, I'm picking Carolina. If they lose, it'll be a big upset. Could they lose? Sure! Kansas City has some plucky young talent on defense, you never know when they might pull out that "hey, we're more athletic than everybody!" game. It could be this week. Carolina could still be that team that shows up half-dead and sleepwalks through a snoozer. They do have two straight division games up after this one, this could be a trap. Sure. But I'm not picking Kansas City on the road. Not ever. Frankly, I can't believe I spent this many words defending this pick.
Panthers over Chiefs, 24-16

Chicago @ Detroit
The Line: Chicago by 3.5
I hope Chicago wins. Not because I bear any specific animosity towards the Lions. In fact, I pity the fools. I think they've got some talented, proud offensive players. I think they're still trying to get the stink off them from years of mismanagement and at least a season of Mike Martz's self-promoting sideshow offense. It's just . . . I think I like the NFL better if Lovie Smith's Chicago Bears are a feisty playoff contender. I really do. Not only do I like ol' Lovie, I just like the idea of a strong Bears team.
Now, having said that, I'm picking the Lions. Yeah, I know. And it'll probably be the last time that ever happens. But I like the idea of the Lions shit-canning Matt Millen, of getting that embarrassing monkey off their backs, and of having the bye-week to try their damnedest to scrap together some kind of defense.
Chicago is loads, loads, LOADS better than Detroit. They scrap. They claw. They hustle. They know where to be and how to get there. They anticipate. They're well coached, they believe in what they're trying to do, and it shows. How can the Lions win this game? Well . . . it's a home game, isn't it? And the Lions pretty obviously have the top 2 players in this game, Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. And sooner or later, Detroit is going to play with their helmets on forward and their shoes on the correct feet in the first half, not just the second half, and when that happens, they'll have enough firepower down the stretch to hang around or even win a game. So there. So I'm picking the Lions.

Whoa, wait, what just happened? I'm picking WHO? No, I don't think so. All that stuff up there could be true, but who in their right mind picks these Lions? Holy hell, that was close.
Bears over Lions, 28-24

Atlanta @ Green Bay
The Line: Green Bay by 7
No way Atlanta wins this game. A victory for the Falcons would be a seven point loss. If they play with heart and execute like professionals, that will be a victory. But they can't win on the scoreboard. Green Bay really really needs this win. If they lose this game, if they were to give up Atlanta's first road win, hot-shot rookie quarterback versus hot-shot young quarterback who, oh, happened to shove Brett Favre out of town, Aaron Rodgers will be in trouble. He just will. Not with his coaches or front office, but with the fans and within his own head. This is a huge, huge, huge game for Green Bay. They can't play poorly and win. I mean, they can, but an ugly win won't do the trick. They've slid so far down the NFC East totem pole they might as well not exist. They need to come out hot, play well, and dominate the Falcons. And I think they will.
Packers over Falcons, 31-17

Indianapolis @ Houston
The Line: Indianapolis by 3
Huge, huge, huge game in the AFC. All AFC eyes will be on this match-up. If Indianapolis can't come back from the bye week and put a beatdown on an AFC South rival they've historically pooped all over, it'll be a bad sign for Indy fans.
And Houston so needs this win. And this is their first home game. You don't think the Houston fans will be over-the-top insane for this game? Against the division's big dogs? The limping big-dogs? If Houston's fans have a single testacle between the lot of them, they'll be glad they pulled the roof back in the Reliant jenx, otherwise they would have blown that bitch into orbit. Seriously, this shouldn't just be a 12th man, it should be a 12th thru 75,000th. This is as much a statement game for Houston's fanbase as it is for the Texans franchise. Show up!
As for the game, hey, I can't pick against these Colts coming off a bye week. I can't, not even on the road when they've looked extraordinarily vulnerable through 3 games. In the past, home vs. road hasn't meant a whole lot to the Colts in division contests, and this season the Colts' only win was on the road, so I'm not sure they care too much about the venue. All of this was a long way of explaining that I'm definitely picking the Colts, and I'm sincerely hoping this game is as excellent as last weekend's AFC South showdown.
Colts over Texans, 37-28

San Diego @ Miami
The Line: San Diego by 6.5
San Diego will definitely show up flat here. Didn't Norv Turner do a stint in Miami once? I'm not sure that matters, but it occured to me just now.
Anyway, back to my point: San Diego will definitely sleepwalk through at least the first quarter. There's a very real possibility that Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will go completely nuts against San Diego's bullshit defense, and if that happens, the Dolphins could very well win the game. I can't pick it that way, but it could happen. Funny how regular guys like me recognize the overall phony-ness of this Chargers team, but the sports media at large is still slobbering all over their junk.
Still, San Diego probably pulls this one out. They've got a lot more talent than the Dolphins. I could see Miami winning. I could even see picking Miami. But I'm not in the mood, and this Dolphins team is not the kind of team I'm willing to go out on a limb for, even at home.
Chargers over Dolphins, 24-13

Seattle @ New York Giants
The Line: New York Giants by 7
I suppose this could be a close game. Damn do the Seahawks need it. I guess I just don't see them as the kind of team that goes on the road and beats a good NFC East team. But they could win. They could.
I guess I just don't have a whole hell of a lot to say about this match-up. Both teams are coming off bye weeks. The Seahawks need it more, but the Giants are better and at home. I'm taking the favorite.
Giants over Seahawks, 27-20

Washington @ Philadelphia
The Line: Philadelphia by 5.5
Here's the thing, and I really mean this: Philly is the team that needs to play nearly perfect to win this game. Washington can play only as well as they played against Arizona or Dallas and they'll win. Philly needs to play better than they've played in any game this season to win. If they're only as good offensively as they were when they hosted Pittsburgh, they'll lose. If they're only as good defensively as they were at Dallas or at Chicago, they'll lose. They need the even, well-rounded performance they haven't had this season. In short, they have a smaller margin of error than Washington. And they don't get nearly the home boost many other teams get, especially in games against Washington, when they have a history of coming up empty.
So I'm taking the Skins. Of course, I'm a big fan. On the other hand, they're in a groove, and I really trust Jim Zorn to put together a game plan that succeeds against Philly's defense. The way I see it, if the Eagles start slow, they're cooked.
And that's that.
Redskins over Eagles, 31-23

Tampa Bay @ Denver
The Line: Denver by 3
I really want to take Tampa in this one, and here's why: the Bucs are more professional, more well-rounded, and they have the single most frustrating offense in the NFL for pass-happy teams. The Broncos are totally false, a mere two plays away from being 1-3 right now. Sooner or later, they're going to drop a home game and the floodgates will open. This could very well be that game.
However, I did eat crap last Sunday going down with a host of road teams, so I'm not sure I'm ready to pick an also-ran like Tampa on the road. I expect them to outperform the Broncos, but I won't be surprised either way. Shit. Shit shit shit. Dammit.
How does Tampa Bay win this game? They shut down the run (easy enough, they're good at that), eliminate the big play (that's what the Tampa-2 does), force some turnovers (count on it), run the ball well (and really, who couldn't against this Denver defense), and take advantage of good field position and red-zone opportunities (a coin flip, really). Wow, that sounds surprisingly easy.
How does Denver win against Tampa? Jay Cutler needs to manipulate the safeties and make rock solid decisions under fire . . . uh oh. Denver needs to establish the run. Shit. They can't let the Bucs get going on the ground. Oh damn. They need to pressure and hit Brian Griese . . . know what? They can do that part. And they're at home, so there's that. God damn.

Shit. Really, shit

Ah fuck. Bucs win! Bucs win! Bucs win!
Bucs over Broncos . . . no wait . . . damn. For the Bucs to win, they'll need, what, 27 points? At least? In Denver? Or they'll need a lights out defensive performance. Gaaaaaaahhh. Dammit.
Ok, here we go.
Bucs over Broncos, 28-27

Buffalo @ Arizona
The Line: Even (that's right, Even.)
And Arizona will win, dammit! Buffalo isn't this good, ok? They're benefiting from an easy schedule! Yes, I like the Bills. Yes, they're quite good. But for crying out loud, they're not 4-0 good, and they're sure as hell not 5-0 good. And Arizona isn't 2-3 bad, either. Arizona can score like a mother. Their defense has been very, very up and down, to put it nicely. But if they pressure the kid, sooner or later he's going to play like, well, Trent Effing Edwards.
I don't even like talking about this game. I like both teams. I'll be so disappointed in the Cardinals if they drop this home game.
Cardinals over Bills, 30-24

Cincinnati @ Dallas
The Line: Dallas by 17
That's right, get drilled in the ass at home, spend a week embarrassing yourselves in the media, and wind up with a 2007 New England Patriots-like 17-point spread.
These are the two gayest teams in the NFL. San Diego is right up there in the running, as is Denver, but Cincinnati and Dallas are tops. Blame it on T.O. and Ocho Cinco, the two most repugnant players in the NFL.
Cincinnati can't win this game, but boy will I be rooting for them like I've never rooted for the Bengals before. Even more than last season's match-up with the Patriots. Because as much as I hated the 2007 Patriots, at least the Bengals could still think of being a competitive team last season. This season, they're garbage, which would make it that much more satisfying if they squirted an oil slick all over the Cowboys on Sunday.
It won't happen. This should be a blowout. Take the points.
Cowboys over Bengals, 34-17

New England @ San Francisco
The Line: New England by 3
I'm predicting a bloodbath. If San Francisco wins, and only if San Francisco wins, I will stop picking New England to win bloodbath games.
Patriots over 49ers by a million billion points

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville
The Line: Jacksonville by 4
Pittsburgh has a real opportunity to fight their way back into my good graces by showing up and playing something other than an embarrassingly awkward game in Jacksonville. Call me crazy, but I think the torch of being the thumping, brutal, nobody-wants-to-play-us-in-the-playoffs team in the AFC has been passed to the Jaguars, probably right around the time they crammed their foot up Pittsburgh's asses in the wildcard round last year.
Jacksonville is healthier at the skill positions and has some mojo going after their effing gorgeous win over Houston last Sunday. They don't have a huge stadium, but they've got some serious fans there in Jacksonville, a nice loud crowd with pretty good football savvy. I like the Jags.
Jaguars over Steelers, 20-14

Minnesota @ New Orleans
The Line: New Orleans by 3
First, this weekend has some really nice games. Frankly, I don't think there's a dog among 'em.
Now, for this game. That's a pretty slim line for a 1-3 team on the road against a 2-2 team in the top 5 in the NFL in scoring and total offense. That would be Vegas hedging themselves against the very real likelihood that New Orleans could trot out their first and second team defenses against the Vikings and still give up 250 rushing yards. It's very possible Minnesota's ground game could dominate this game.
But do you take a 1-3 team with uneven pass-protection, bad pass-defense, poor quarterbacking, suspect playcalling, and sometimes-comical clock management on the road against a competent, healthy playoff contender? I don't see how. Even if Minnesota runs the ball very well, is that enough for them to win? I'm not convinced. I mean Adrian Peterson would have to go all the way . . . well . . . Adrian Peterson on the Saints for them to realistically win this game. It could happen. But do you bet on it?
Nope!
Saints over Vikings, 27-21

And there you have it. I feel very, very good about my picks this week, hence the whole "magic" thing. I think I've got 10 or even 11 wins on the books here. After last week's horrible showing, the NFL hooked me up with a series of games I feel pretty good picking.
Of course, come Tuesday morning, I may feel totally different about this. I did pick only 8 of 15 home teams. For crying out loud. Damn. Is it too late to change a few of those?

Ah hell, just stick with 'em.

Go Skynards!

Week 4 in Review

This was a seriously ugly weekend of football in the NFL. With two exceptions, no game this weekend featured two teams playing well. Most games featured two teams playing poorly and benefiting from the mistakes of the other. If you're a Dallas, Denver, or Arizona fan, this was probably your least favorite weekend of football in NFL history. Not only did your team disappoint, but there was no other good football to entertain away your blues.

Now, let's recap:

Carolina over Atlanta, 24-9
My Pick: Carolina over Atlanta, 24-13
Look, if you're a Falcons fan, you can be pretty happy with the knowledge that your team at least shows up and competes on the road. Their offense might go in the toilet, but it's not like they self-destruct or play like total garbage. They just lose their mojo. Over time, they'll learn how to turn a good road effort into points and wins.
As for the Panthers, hey, they look like a really competent, solid, professional team. They could win their division. They could have a really strong regular season, they might even be able to win a playoff game. I don't think they're at the level of the top NFC teams, but I like these Panthers. Unlike previous Carolina teams, they aren't waiting for week 7 to wake up this year, which has to really encourage their fans. The 2-0 start at home is a change for them as well. They should also be encouraged by the fact that Jake Delhomme targeted Mushin Muhammed more than Steve Smith on Sunday, and the overall balance of the offense. Granted, all this against the bottom of their division, but this is exactly the kind of game the Panthers would have given away last year and the year before.

Cleveland over Cincinnati, 20-12
My Pick: Cleveland over Cincinnati, 37-31
The less said about this depressing mess, the better. What the hell has happened to the offense in Cleveland? Man they stink. These teams will combine for maybe 9 wins this year. Blech.

Jacksonville over Houston, 30-27
My Pick: Jacksonville over Houston, 24-20
What a game! What a great, great game! This was the anti-Ohio game. Wow. These teams played so well, I wish they'd gone to another overtime. This was one of only two games worth watching this weekend, and boy was it a doozy. It's a shame it dropped Houston further into the cellar of the AFC South, they really played an excellent game.
Now a few notes: 1. Steve Slaton is a keeper. Last week, he did it on the ground. This week, he caught 8 balls for 83 yards and a score. It's critical that Gary Kubiak resist the urge to shuffle the deck in his backfield. They seem to have finally found a player who can produce from the position. 2. Del Rio ripped off the single wing formation to great effect, springing Montell Owings for a 41-yard score to open the game out of a punt formation audible. On the one hand, hey, it's a copycat league, and Del Rio's move worked. On the other hand, isn't Jack Del Rio exactly the kind of coach to insist on ripping off the signature coaching move of the NFL season only a week after it's first use? 3. David Garrard was clutch, clutch, clutch, picking up a pair of huge first downs on the critical late-game drive, and then rushing for the score that gave Jacksonville the lead. He also threw the ball extremely well. I'm not a huge Jacksonville fan, but I do like David Garrard, and I really like the way he plays when he's comfortable. Great game for him, he gets the game-ball. Ultimately, Garrard might be the best running quarterback in the NFL. 4. Great to see Matt Schaub dig his way out of his grave and reanimate in this one. Excellent, excellent job by Schaub, a really solid, professional outing against a very tough defense. Keep it up, Matt! Do UVA proud!
Honestly, I just loved this game. Neither team was willing to lose the game, both fought to the death, neither offense backed down for a second. Love it. This is what we wanted to see from the AFC South in 2008.
One more thing: the Jaguars have to find a way to consistently give touches to Maurice Jones-Drew. I mean, seriously, the guy had nine touches in this one. Nine touches? He's gone 9 touches, 8 touches, 20 touches, and then 9 touches through their first four games. Know who's had more plays called for him per game than Maurice Jones-Drew, perhaps Jacksonville's best offensive player? Carolina rookie Jonathan Stewart. Tennessee rookie Chris Johnson. Detroit Lions rookie Kevin Smith. Chicago Bears rookie Matt Forte. Not that these aren't good players, but MJD is a proven commodity. Get him the ball!

Kansas City over Denver 33-19
My Pick: Denver over Kansas City, 35-20
For fuck's sake. Remember last season? Remember how the Broncos raced out to a 2-0 start behind a pair of extremely suspect last second wins? Remember how people got excited about their season, then they went in the toilet because they had no defense, no running game, no ability to win on the road, and no leadership on either side of the ball? You'd think we would have learned a thing or two from that, but no. Here I was picking them to win by 15 in a place they historically stink, ranking them as one of my top-10 teams in the NFL. Bullshit.
Seriously, they're a correct call and an easy field-goal from being 1-3 right now. They stink. They're good for fantasy football and that's it. That defense is a disaster. 33 points to the Kansas City Chiefs? If you told me the Chiefs had scored 33 points, I would have assumed you were talking about the whole season to this point, not a single game.
And that's all I have to say about that.

New Orleans over San Francisco, 31-17
My Pick: New Orleans over San Francisco, 31-28
If the NFL coaching ranks can be compared to Wall Street, then Scott Linehan is Lehman Brothers, Lane Kiffin is Washington Mutual, and Mike Nolan is Wachovia. Linehan is toast, out of business as of today. Kiffin is hanging on for dear life. Nolan has his eggs spread just thin enough that he might be able to hang around for a while, but it's not a pretty long term picture. If you're cash is in Mike Nolan, withdraw today.
Keeping the metaphor alive, blood is in the water now that Linehan has gone down, and there's sure to be a run on crappy head coaches as confidence goes down and the frenzy ensues. Kiffin is next. Let's say Marvin Lewis is AIG: drowning badly, but with enough suction to get bailed out by the powers that be. Nolan doesn't have the suction, but he's linked up with another weak entity (Mike Martz), and investors (ownership) are waiting to see what the combination can do as a unit. The early results aren't very promising. Withdraw today! Sell sell sell!
Seriously, J.T. O'Sullivan has been sacked 19 times through 4 games. He was sacked 6 times by the Saints, who, prior to their showdown with the 49ers, had tallied a whole 4 sacks on the season. This Martz offense is a joke. Seriously, it's a joke.
Think about it: what other offense in the NFL or college knowingly sacrifices a whole function of the offense in order to be productive? Not the West Coast offense, not the Sam Wyche offense, not the Don Coryell offense, not a power running game, not even Al Davis's beloved 7-step drop offense. Mike Martz's celebrated offensive scheme is the only offense ever run in the NFL that gives up on pass protection, but they don't stop there: they actually give up on the running game as well! In college, even the Shotgun Spread and Spread Option offenses utilize match-ups and quick decision-making to generate passing, protection, rushing yards, big plays, clock consumption, the whole deal! Mike Martz and the A-11: two offensive schemes that don't even pretend to make for a better team, just a more entertaining show. How can anybody expect to put together a legitimate contender when you're conceding that your quarterback is gonna take a lot of big shots? That's just ridiculous. Nobody ever has run that offense better than Kurt Warner, and he's got the shakes so bad he gave up 6 turnovers on Sunday. The guy was almost knocked clean out of the league, and he's a great, great passer. I've said it before: if I'm the owner of the San Francisco 49ers, I'm handcuffing Martz to Nolan, rolling the whole sorry state of the franchise up in a bundle, hanging it around their necks, and pushing them over a cliff. They're both fired. Why? Because we're trying to build a Super Bowl contender, not a sideshow.

New York Jets over Arizona, 56-35
My Pick: Arizona over New York Jets, 30-20
And for the 200th year in a row, we'll all join in a chorus together, proclaiming, "It's just not your year, Cardinals fans! Maybe next season!"
Look: I deeply admire the ferocity of Arizona's third quarter charge, and I have a lot of respect for Kurt Warner's passing ability and the explosiveness of their offense. But you just can't give up 34 points in a quarter. Not to anybody. Not to the 2007 New England Patriots. Certainly not to the 2008 New York Jets, who just got brutalized on Monday night by the Chargers. We all keep waiting for Arizona's offense to turn the corner, but it just ain't happening. They got annihilated on Sunday.
And what a stark example of good Kurt Warner vs. bad Kurt Warner! He ended the game with 4 fumbles on 5 sacks, and you know what? If you're surprised by that stat, you haven't been paying attention. If Eli Manning or Jason Campbell were to go out and lose fumbles on 4 of 5 sacks, it'd be a big deal. A big, puzzling, head-scratching wonder. But when Kurt Warner does it, you just shrug your shoulders and shake your head. And when Kurt Warner comes out in the third quarter with his team down huge and starts slinging one perfect pass after another, furiously driving his team to three scores in 10 minutes, well, you're not too surprised by that, either. The guy can throw the damn ball. He just has a weakness for going dead-eye and limp as a gutted fish when the pocket collapses. Seriously. When this guy takes a shot, the ball starts flying out of there. And you can't win when your quarterback turns the ball over 6 times.
At any rate, he'll do enough to keep this young team hungry all season, and that should help them carry over a winning attitude into 2009, by which time Matt Leinart had better be ready to take the reigns. I mean it; I really do like Kurt Warner, I really am impressed by his ability to fire rockets into coverage and move the chains. It's just that there's a hard ceiling on a Kurt Warner-quarterbacked team, and the Cardinals are at the point now where they have enough talent to think about winning their division.

Tampa Bay over Green Bay, 30-21
My Pick: Green Bay over Tampa Bay, 20-14
Like I said, that Tampa-2 defense can be a real bitch for a young quarterback and a pass-happy offense. But I don't want to talk about that. I want to talk about one of the real assholes of the NFL. His name is Ryan Grant.
You know the guy. He's the entitled little prick from Notre Dame, the 2005 undrafted rookie free agent who, after wandering in obscurity for 2 seasons, lucked into the starting tailback position on a Packers team that was lighting the world on fire with their passing game and fluked his way to a decent season. He's the jerk that held out for a mega-deal based on that one decent season, then missed time in the preseason with lingering minor injuries. What has Ryan Grant done to validate his new contract? How about 55 carries for 186 yards, 0 touchdowns, 2 catches, and 2 lost fumbles through 4 games? Does that sound to you like a guy worthy of a 4-year, $30 million dollar contract? Nope. Not one bit. If Ted Thompson is remembered for one move in his tenure as GM of the Packers, it will probably be the battle of wills with Brett Favre, but it should be the way he caved to this unproven punk, overpaid him, and then watched him suck the life out of Green Bay's running game for 2 seasons before being cut for cap space in 2010. Write it down, folks.
I bring this up because you need a ground game to have success against a good Tampa-2. The Packers don't have a good ground game, they have a $30 million dollar pedestrian lined up 7 yards behind the quarterback.

Tennessee over Minnesota, 30-17
My Pick: Tennessee over Minnesota, 16-13
I can't say for sure what happened in this game. Hold on, let me go watch the highlights. Be right back.
Ok, 4 turnovers for the Vikings, including a crucial late-game interception from the endzone. A few controversial calls. A nice goal-line run or two by Chris Johnson. An ugly game.

San Diego over Oakland, 28-18
My Pick: San Diego over Oakland, 34-17
Meh. I get depressed even thinking about this game. Oakland blows another late lead. They tally 8 penalties for 64 yards. They're making it hard for me to support Lane Kiffin as their coach. On the other hand, they played another professional game, and they had a chance to win. Perhaps most encouragingly, JaMarcus Russell looked like an honest-to-goodness NFL quarterback against what some consider a tough defense.
I don't have much else to say. Nice late run by Ladainian Tomlinson to make it look like he had a good day running the ball.

Buffalo over St. Louis, 31-14
My Pick: Buffalo over St. Louis 24-14
In Scott Linehan's short tenure as the worst coach in the NFL, one thing was constant about his teams: every few weeks, they'd go balls to the wall for 2.5 quarters of a game, play the best football they could, and still come away with a brutal ass-whupping in the end. This was the final performance of that act, but at least Linehan won't have to travel far to start packing up his bags. The Rams axed his sorry ass Monday morning.
Now, a few notes: 1. I don't like the way Stephen Jackson runs with the ball. He's a short strider. What, is this guy long-waisted or something? 2. You just can't have Al Saunders as your offensive coordinator. You just can't. His playbook is absurd. How the hell is a team supposed to digest and master a 700-page playbook? Take my word for it, as a Washington fan: this guy is crap. Certified garbage. In today's NFL, with free-agency and near constant roster and coaching turnover, you can't install a playbook that takes 4 years to even read from front to back, let alone actually execute. I picture this guy pouring through that thing, dick in hand, telling himself he's the greatest, most innovative offensive mind in football. Know what? In his last two stops in the NFL, he's been dog-shit. 3. Jim Haslett's first order of business as interim head coach of this team should be to reinsert Marc Bulger as the starting quarterback. I'm obviously not a big Bulger fan, but there's no way he should have been benched. If he had been the reason for St. Louis's poor play, I'd be all for his benching, but he wasn't. Accountability is important; arbitrary roster moves not only don't demonstrate accountability, they actually undermine it, and they demonstrate a state of desperation by the coach. Linehan was nothing if not desperate. But beyond that, you don't sign a guy to a monster $65 million deal to lead your offense and then arbitrarily bench him after 3 games to send a message. I mean, there are certain business considerations here, ugly though they may be. Bulger didn't get arrested, he didn't get into a fight with a coach, he didn't miss a team meeting, and he's not the reason the Rams are in the toilet. He may be part of the reason, but so is everyone else. 4. The Rams need to run the ball and set up playaction. They've got a big back and some depth. Run the ball! Keep games tight, keep your defense off the field and your quarterback upright! Play some respectable games, maybe you'll pull out a win or two!
One more thing: this Fred Jackson guy can really run. He's someone who runs the right way, shoulders low and squared, with smooth, even strides. Not this choppy ugliness you get from Stephen Jackson. The Bills should have put this game away a lot earlier than they did, but a road win is a road win. Keep it up, Bills!

Washington over Dallas, 26-24
My Pick: Dallas over Washington, 28-23
Jason Campbell pretty clearly outplayed Tony Romo in this one. Not that that's necessarily even much of a knock on the way Romo played; he moved the ball, and with the exception of one truly terrible interception in the second half, he was pretty decent. I thought he forced the ball way too many times in the direction of Terrell Owens, but such is the way of an offense with T.O. on the field. Unless you want this guy doing naked sit-ups in the parking lot of the practice facility and questioning your sexuality in the media, you're going to have to force the ball to him a few times a game. That Dallas was preoccupied with the task of getting certain guys their stats is about what you expect from this glamorous bunch.
As for Campbell, it turns out this guy just doesn't turn the ball over. I mean he really doesn't. He's pretty much unflappable, and as much as you hear people poo-pooing the whole "he's had to learn a new offense every year of his football life", I doubt there's another quarterback in the NFL who could pull off what Campbell has had to pull of thus far. I mean it's absurd. He's become a master of the West Coast offense in a single off-season. He's spent so much time learning new offenses, it's probably his single best skill now as an NFL player.
Dallas didn't really do much to establish the run, did they? For crying out loud, how amateurish was that? They ran more plays out of shotgun than the Redskins did! Seriously, last week the Redskins gave up a pretty nice day on the ground to Edgerrin James while the Cowboys ran amok all over the Packers. Sounds like a good reason for the Cowboys to maybe run it a few times against the Skins, right? What, did Jason Garrett and Greg Blache strike an accord this week? For the life of me, I'll never understand this. Granted, Marion Barber did get his ass handed to him on the overwhelming majority of his carries on Sunday, but still, they made absolutely no commitment whatsoever to establishing the ground game.
Clinton Portis, on the other hand, was out-effing-standing. He was quick to the edge, sharp, and tough as hell over the middle. In the fourth quarter, he pretty much dominated the action, helping the Redskins to a mind-shattering 12 minutes and 48 seconds of possession in the final frame. Ladell Betts did well in a few carries. The single most surprising part of this game was how the Cowboys overcompensated to slow down the passing game and let the Redskins cram the ball right down their throats and own the box. I did not expect that.
Dallas had the superior pass-rush by default, which is to say, the Redskins had no pass-rush whatsoever. I was extremely disappointed to see the Redskins switch to the always terrible Prevent Defense when Dallas had obvious passing situations. Was anybody else surprised to see the Cowboys score touchdowns on both possessions in which the Skins switched to that garbage? Seriously, Greg Blache has been pretty good so far as defensive coordinator, but we just can't have a defensive coordinator who falls back into the Prevent when the opposition needs to start throwing the ball. That's bullshit.
Other than that, the Skins owned the trenches. They pushed Dallas off the ball consistently and had by far the superior offensive line on the night. Take Marion Barber's 15 yard carry away and he had a 7-carry, 11-yard night. He was met at the line of scrimmage on pretty much every touch he had, and he took some big shots on those carries.
As far as the secondary goes, please. Puh-leese. I'm sure Terrence Newman is a good guy, everyone says he's a hard worker, but he ought to box that Pro Bowl trophy (or whatever) up Monday night and mail it to Santana Moss. He had such a bad night, his wife divorced him (I'm kidding, I don't even know if he's married). Although Washington's secondary wasn't perfect, they did force the game's only turnover, another big interception by the wonderful Chris Horton. They didn't allow a play longer than 26 yards on the night, and Washington's corners made play after play in coverage on Terrell Owens and Jason Witten. Witten did get loose against Marcus Washington, but other than that, it was a pretty good night for Washington's coverage packages.
Dallas's coaches didn't just lay an egg, they laid an 11-egg omellette. Their defense was rubbish and made no adjustments at any point. The offensive design was so pathetic, I'll immediately think less of whoever lands Jason Garrett as their over-hyped head coach next season. This guy might have a wonderful playbook, or he might just have one of the most talented offenses in the league, or both, but what he doesn't have is a friggin' clue how to call a game against a tough, determined defense. He can dial up some big numbers, but at a certain point it became clear the mandate for his entire unit was to find a way to get the ball to Terrell Owens, never mind that he'd been totally shut down. A pitch to T.O.? Looks good on the stats, but what does a pitch to T.O. from the I-formation do for your offense that a pitch to Marion Barber from the I-formation doesn't do? Nothing. On the other hand, a successful running play to Barber helps establish the run and forces the Redskins to play honest defense. As far as Wade Phillips goes, it's bad when the signature quote of the aftermath of a disappointing home loss to an important rival is the head coach's arrogant proclamation that "nobody runs on Dallas". Nice job there, Wade. We'll etch it on your tombstone after Jerry dumps your ass this off-season.
But Jim Zorn! What a guy! Another A+ offensive gameplan for the Redskins. A beautiful mixture of short passes, power runs, shots up the sidelines, and pre-snap gamesmanship that kept the Dallas defense on their heals all game long, start to finish. Here's the only stat you need to know about Washington's offensive flow in this game: the Redskins had the ball for 38 minutes of this game. Their offense was on the field for 17 more minutes than the Cowboys celebrated group. Frankly, if not for not one but two lame penalties by Casey Rabach, the Skins would have hung 30 on the 'boys, and it could have been worse. The game wasn't nearly as close as the final score, and shame on the Redskins for letting it come down to an onsides kick. This was as one-sided a blowout as any 2-point game in the history of football, and the fact that it came in the last regular season game between the rivals at Texas Stadium . . . well, that's just great.
Now I'm thinking the Redskins ought to be able to march into Philadelphia and earn a win there, too. Hell, they did it last year.

Chicago over Philadelphia, 24-20
My Pick: Philadelphia over Chicago, 27-17
So, roughly an hour after the Redskins finished their brutal man-rape of the Cowboys on Sunday, I convinced my wife to accompany me to a celebratory dinner at our favorite local Tex-Mex joint. We're walking into the restaurant, and I glance up at the TV over the bar and see that the Eagles are down a few points late in the first half to the Bears, and I happen to catch a shot of Donovan McNabb in the huddle. It hit me then: as tough and merciless as these Eagles can be and have been over the last decade, they don't always show up against lesser foes. Sometimes, they expect an opponent to just lay down on the tracks, and when that doesn't happen, they mail it in. There, in the huddle, McNabb had that look in his eyes. Bemusement. Slight incredulity. He looked a little embarrassed, a little detached. I felt pretty bad about Philadelphia's chances of winning by the time we sat down at our table.
First of all, I'm a little offended that Philadelphia went on the road to Chicago in week 4 and laid an egg. I was really looking forward to writing in this blog, today, the following sentence: "The NFC East is now 9-0 against all teams from outside the division." Now I can't do it. Except that I just did. Eat it!
Seriously, though, the NFC East should be 9-0 outside the NFC East. It's not right that Philly gave a half-hearted effort in Chicago Sunday night. Ultimately, this is what separated the 2007 Philadelphia Eagles from the rest of the division, and it could be what separates them from the division again in 2008. Frankly, I feel like we can already identify, based on what they did last season and what they've done this season, who each team in the NFC East really is. Like last year, the Eagles are really talented and explosive, but have a tendency to just not give a shit sometimes, like they just can't get up for certain games. The Cowboys are really, really talented, same as ever, but they're fundamentally soft, lack leadership, and are often overwhelmed by the presence of their own egos. The Redskins are professional, tough, hard-working, but possibly lack the weapons to compete in the NFC East arms-race. And the Giants are the class of the bunch: professional on both sides of the ball, merciless, hard-working, with a good combination of big-time personalities and quiet, hard-hat types.
Now, as for this game, neither team really did enough to win the game. The Bears got out early and held on behind a decent game from Kyle Orton and a few big plays. The Eagles didn't get serious about trying to win until too late, but by then they were out of rhythm and discouraged. Good win for the Bears, they're keeping pace within their murky-as-hell division.

Steelers over Ravens, 23-20
My Pick: Steelers over Ravens, 14-10
Joe Flacco was the better quarterback Monday night. Period. Sure, he lost two fumbles, but this kid can play. I wasn't sold on him in the preseason, he does look like an ostrich, but he looks athletic in the pocket, plays with his head up, and fires a really nice looking spiral with accuracy.
Not that Ben Roethlisberger was crap, but man I'm just so so so sick of these Pittsburgh Steelers. They're easily one of the 2 or 3 least consistent teams in the NFL on offense. It drives me crazy to watch them. No team in the league is as content playing hideous, error-prone, unwatchable football, at home as the Steelers. They look like crap on offense, no rhythm, no timing, no committment, no sense of just manning up and beating somebody. Their offensive line is awful, sure, but are the Steelers doing anything about it? Are they telling Ben to get rid of the ball quicker? Are they designing roll-out plays, or moving the pocket at all? Are they using draw plays, screens, shovel-passes, swing patterns, quick fades, or any of 100 other little tricks to neutralize the pass-rush? Are they committing to a chip from a running back or a tight end? Anything? Seriously, I effing hate this offense. I hate it. They'll never be a legit contender with that piece of shit. When they look good, it's only because they catch fire for a few quarters and hit a few big plays. That's their whole offense. They toil at midfield for 40 plays a game, then hit a few bombs and call it a big night. Screw them. I'm sick of the Pittsburgh Steelers and their middling bullshit.
As for the Ravens, hey, I like what I see. They gave the Steelers all they could handle. They've got depth across the board and they're doing a great job at bringing a young quarterback along. John Harbaugh will eat some shit in Baltimore today for having 45 seconds and a timeout on the clock at the end of a tie game and electing to run the clock out and go to overtime, which is literally a coin-flip. Other than that, though, he's coaching a professional, hard-working, hungry team that has so far produced within their division. What can I say? I like the Ravens. I feel like they actually won the game.

How about another round of rankings, eh?

Actual Contenders

1. New York Giants
That's right. Undefeated, Super Bowl champs, deep on both sides of the ball. The best team in football (today only).

2. Tennessee Titans
Both the Cowboys and Eagles worked their way out of this position. The Titans are 4-0 and look very strong, especially on defense.

3. Dallas Cowboys
It's only one loss, but if you're reading up on how they're reacting to it, you're getting a sense of just how fragile and soft this team really is. Still, they're loaded, personnel wise.

Emerging From the Rest of the Pack

4. Buffalo Bills
4-0 has to count for something, especially when they've come from behind twice and are legitimately better than many teams in all three phases of the game.

5. Washington Redskins
How can they not be? The combined record of their 4 opponents to this point is 10-5. They've beaten 3 teams predicted to win their divisions. They beat the paper-champs in their own stadium. They're the 5th best team in the NFL or better.

The Best of the Rest

6. San Diego Chargers
Hard fought road win over a professional team on Sunday. Hey, I can't have it both ways, you know? Either the Chargers are crap and they just beat a bottom feeder, or the Raiders are tough and professional and the Chargers just beat 'em on the road. I know the Raiders to be tough and professional, so I have to give the Chargers their due.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars
Outstanding win on Sunday. Against an incredibly game foe, David Garrard made huge, huge clutch plays down the stretch, reminiscent of Steve McNair in his prime. Just a great, great win.

8. Carolina Panthers
3-1 and actually playing good football. They haven't done anything really special yet, but they look deep and competent and have the air of a team that expects to do big things this season.

From Here On, I'm Not Sold on Anyone

9. Indianapolis Colts
Let's see how they look coming out of their bye week at Houston. I predict they'll be much sharper on offense but will still struggle to stop the run. They need to get healthy.

10. Philadelphia Eagles
Sorry, guys. You shamed the NFC East Sunday night. You have to show up every night. I love the confidence, but let's not take it too far.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers
Blech. Gross. Show me something, you pieces of crap. Play well in more than 2 consecutive games, for once in your miserable lives.

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
That Tampa-2 is churning and they're getting just enough from their offense to take advantage. I still hate the Bucs and hope for Jon Gruden's firing, but they're doing well.

Frauds

13. Denver Broncos
Laughable that they're 3-1. This team sucks. 33 points to the Chiefs? Please.

Stuck in the Middle

14. Chicago Bears
Know what? This team could be 3-1 right now, or even 4-0! They've played every game pretty close and have had a lead in each contest. They're a tough team. Give me them over quite a few more highly touted teams.

15. Baltimore Ravens
Love their toughness, love their grit. They could gut their way to 8 wins this season, sure.

16. Green Bay Packers
I think they'll get their mojo back, but they've looked like pan-fried lawn-clippings for 2 straight weeks.

17. New Orleans Saints
Just enough offense to pour it on against anybody, and enough of a pass-rush, apparently, to make mince meat out of J.T. O'Sullivan. I like that they won without much of a contribution from Reggie Bush on Sunday.

18. Atlanta Falcons
Not very good on the road, but not so bad that they're an embarrassment, either. That's a start, anyway.

19. New England Patriots
Lots to prove after that embarrassing annihilation last weekend.

The Curb

20. Arizona Cardinals
First, a tough loss on the road in Washington. Then, a full blown meltdown on the road at the Jets. They need a bounce back game, bad.

21. New York Jets
Meh. Still crap. Still not a contender.

The Gutter

22. San Francisco 49ers
A sideshow at best. Good if you're interested in a team that might conceivably stumble their way to 7 or 8 wins without actually taking a single step towards solidifying a foundation for the franchise.

23. Seattle Seahawks
If they come out of the bye week healthy and in sinc, they should shoot up towards the top of their embarrassment of a division and lose another early playoff game.

24. Minnesota Vikings
It's just not happening for the Vikings. The quarterback position is a disaster and they just don't have it. They really don't.

Way, Way, Way Better Than Their Records

25. Houston Texans
Showed not just life, but balls and vigor in their hard-fought loss to the Jaguars. Without a doubt, the best winless team in the NFL today.

26. Oakland Raiders
Very tough, very professional, on the rise, and dead on arrival, thanks to a clueless old piece of shit owner that will probably have sacked his head coach by the time you read this.

Trash Juice, Straight From the Can

27. Miami Dolphins
Great, great win headed into the bye week over New England. Plus, they don't have a single offensive turnover on the season. Good for them.

28. Cleveland Browns
About as ugly and discouraging a win as the good folks in Ohio are ever going to see. What went wrong in Cleveland?

A Mangled Smear of Furry Roadkill

29. Kansas City Chiefs
Ok, seriously, I do like certain pieces of the Kansas City roster, especially on defense. I'm just not sure Herm Edwards is the guy to coach these young guys to their potential down the road. Ok, I'm not just "not sure". I'd bet my life on him not being the guy.

30. Cincinnati Bengals
12 points, at home, against the sieve we know as the Cleveland Browns' defense. Putrid. A putrid, awful disaster.

Still Jettisoning the Rotten Pieces

31. Detroit Lions
A really, really bad football team, but for the second season in a row, they've fired someone who was doing nothing but dragging the team down. If you're a Lions fan, you'll take these small victories.

The Worst Team in Football, Maybe Ever

32. St. Louis Rams
A clueless, dysfunctional, ball-less exercise in running a franchise into the ground. Scott Linehan might be remembered as one of the all-time terrible head coaches in NFL history. I expect the Rams to be at least 100% better with Jim Haslett at the reigns, albeit for only the remainder of the season.


Week 5 picks will be out probably tomorrow. I was a very poor 8-5, with a couple of my weekly Bad Road Picks backfiring as you might expect. Certainly it wasn't bad enough for me to revert to picking 90% home teams in a given week, but let's just say I probably won't be picking Denver or Arizona on the road again for a while.