Lots of tempting road teams in Week 4, and at least one really insulting early line. Lets get right in there.
Atlanta @ Carolina
The Line: Carolina by 7
As well as Atlanta played at home in weeks 1 and 3, they didn't put up much of a fight in Tampa in week 2, and though I'm not completely sold on Carolina (especially at home), I'm not sure the Falcons are ready to win a division road game against a competent team. I'll say this much: if the Panthers struggle offensively like they did in week 3, there will be more than a few people wondering about Steve Smith's true impact on their offense. Sure, he's a big play guy, but how much of their passing game becomes an exercise in feeding Smith's ego when he's in there? Remember Jeremy Shockey in New York? How the offense really took off after he went down with injury? Doesn't Steve Smith strike you as being essentially the same kind of guy: enormously talented but extremely immature and hard on his teammates? I'm just saying . . .
Panthers over Falcons, 24-13
Cleveland @ Cincinnati
The Line: Cincinnati by 3.5
What a depressing game. One of these teams will see their hopes of a successful season flushed completely down the toilet in this one, while the other team will have only delayed that reality by a week, maybe two weeks. What's going on in Ohio? Combined, these teams have 2 Pro Bowl quarterbacks, 3 Pro Bowl receivers, a Pro Bowl tight end, a Pro Bowl offensive lineman or two, a Pro Bowl special teams guy, and literally no defense at all. But seriously, these are probably the two biggest underachievers in football, and if their fans are going through anything like what Washington fans went through when our team was the perennial Ultimate Underachiever of the NFL, well, I pity the fools. Hopefully, these teams will at least have the decency to put together a good ol' shoot out, combining for something in the neighborhood of 90 points. That I could handle. Most likely, it'll be a depressing turnover-fest, a quarterback will be benched, and the game will come down to a missed field goal or missed call by a referee.
Browns over Bengals, 37-31
Houston @ Jacksonville
The Line: Jacksonville by 8
Honestly, I don't see how Houston can win this game. Houston's offense looks like boiled crap through two games. They found a running game last Sunday, but now they're going against a very stout run defense and a team that runs the ball extremely well themselves. I just don't see it happening. I suppose if the Texans can find a way to stuff the run even a little bit, they can probably generate enough of a pass-rush to maybe force some turnovers. Offensively, they've just got to protect the quarterback. I mean, Matt Schaub is entering Marc Bulger territory here, sitting on a big contract and playing like a steaming turd. If he's shell-shocked, as Peter King suggests, that won't be new for Houston fans, but it's a damn shame for the franchise. They've got just enough weapons in the passing game that if they can keep a competent passer upright, they should be able to hang with most teams, even without a running game. It worked last season, one wonders what the hell happened between then and now that all of a sudden they're so crummy.
Jaguars over Texans, 24-20
Denver @ Kansas City
The Line: Denver by 9.5
This could very well be that annoying game where Denver reminds everyone why they haven't been a legitimate contender in years, and Kansas City jumps up and plays that one "effort" game against an opponent hell-bent on shooting themselves in the foot. It usually happens to Denver, in Kansas City, when they really ought to win the game, and then they just don't. On the other hand, this Kansas City team is so, so, so incompetent, especially on offense. They might be the one team in the NFL that can't put up 30 on Denver's defense. I don't know, I really don't like Denver on the road, especially against a garbage team like the Chiefs, but the Chiefs are truly awful. I guess I'll pick the favorite in this one. And if they're gonna win, they're gonna win huge.
Broncos over Chiefs, 35-20
San Francisco @ New Orleans
The Line: New Orleans by 6
New Orleans is not yet at the "ruh-roh" stage, but if they lose this game (and they might), they won't just be at "ruh-roh", they'll be in the early stages of full meltdown. The positive is this is game one of a three game homestand, but a 1-3 start could put them in a deep early hole in their division, and I think we all know there will be no NFC wild-card teams from outside the NFC East. They've played all three of their games pretty close to this point, but they haven't shown much ability to defend at all, and they've got a schedule ahead of them pretty full of teams that feature the running game. I can foresee a situation in which the very talented New Orleans offense can't get on the field because they're defense can't stop the run, in which case a 1-3 start could very seriously come back to haunt them. That missed field goal against Denver would loom large, friends.
San Francisco has shown some ability in their offense, but I'm not crazy about them on the road either, and I'm not ready for them to be 3-1. It's like selling your soul to the devil: there may be some early rewards, but down the stretch, you're fucked. That's San Francisco. J. T. O'Sullivan is not the long term answer. Mike Martz is not the long term answer. Mike Nolan is not the long term answer. All this team can do is tread water and hope to hang their hats on a winning record in the regular season. That's the extent of it.
Ultimately, I guess I like the Saints in this one. I suppose it could be a blow-out, but that would depend upon their defense making dramatic strides this week.
Saints over 49ers, 31-28
Arizona @ New York Jets
The Line: New York Jets by 1.5
Get ready for this nugget, Jets fans: your team will lose this game. In fact, it won't be all that close.
Why? Because you needed four stops inside the 10 to squeak by the Miami Dolphins in week 1. Because you were pushed around at home by the Patriots. Because you went on the road and got mutilated by the Chargers. And because the Cardinals are nearly as good as the Chargers and a whole hell of a lot better than the Dolphins in week 1 or the Patriots in week 2. Note that I'm not saying they're better overall than those teams, but they're better than the week 1 version of the Dolphins and the week 2 version of the Pats.
Plus, Brett Favre sucks.
Cardinals over Jets, 30-20
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
The Line: Tampa Bay by 1
If Tampa stays in this game, it'll be because of that Tampa-2 defense, and because Aaron Rodgers hasn't faced it yet in his NFL career. That sucker can be a bitch for young quarterbacks. On the other hand, he's been damn sharp so far, and Tampa's offense probably doesn't have the juice to do much against Green Bay's defense, even without Al Harris. This could be a very interesting game to watch. For Green Bay to stay in the discussion as one of the top teams in the NFC, they need a good win here. Tampa doesn't lose much if they lose this one, except that they then go to Denver, where they'll almost certainly be picked to lose. It's difference between hitting week 5's divisional contest with Carolina at 3-2 or 2-3, I suppose. Know what? I'm gonna give Aaron Rodgers the benefit of the doubt. If he hasn't been rattled by Minnesota's tough defense or even the super tough Cowboys defense, he should be able to at least avoid losing the game by himself against Tampa Bay.
Packers over Bucs, 20-14
Minnesota @ Tennessee
The Line: Tennessee by 3
If Tennessee turns the ball over a lot, they'll give Minnesota a chance to win. If Adrian Peterson goes nuts, absolutely nuts, he'll give his team a chance. Other than those two circumstances, I don't see Minnesota winning this game. Since I can't imagine even Adrian Peterson going nuts against Tennessee's defense, I can't pick Minnesota, not on the road, not against this tough an opponent. Tennessee will do just enough offensively to take advantage of good field position and get the win.
Titans over Vikins, 16-13
San Diego @ Oakland
The Line: San Diego by 8
Ooooh . . . trap game for San Diego. Coming off a big blowout win against the soft, overrated Jets, on the road in Oakland against a scrappy, backs-to-the-wall Raiders team with superior coaching and a commitment to the run. If San Diego is smart, this is game one of a nice little two-game road swing against the bottom of the AFC, and a chance to put together a 3-game winning streak and get back above .500. For a team with a competent coaching staff, the Raiders would be total roadkill. I definitely see the Chargers going into Oakland having already scratched this one off in the win column, and Oakland cramming the running game down their throats for four quarters. Oh man, I so want to pick Oakland to win this game. Honestly, I'm going to hate myself if I pick San Diego and the Raiders win. Damn damn damn.
Ok, just remember that I put it out there. If the Chargers win, they'll win handily. But there's a very, very good chance that Oakland pulls the Upset Special here and sends San Diego into a tailspin. A very, very good chance.
Chargers over Raiders, 34-17
Buffalo @ St. Louis
The Line: Buffalo by 8
Buffalo will win this game. Why? Because Trent Green is no upgrade over Marc Bulger, certainly not enough of an upgrade to turn the Rams from perhaps the worst team I've ever watched in an NFL game into a team that can upset the hungry, 3-0 Bills. Not that I'm totally sold on the Bills, but I feel confident about one thing, at least: the Bills will not come out flat and give the game away. If nothing else, any team that beats the Bills this season is going to have to actually beat them. The Bills might make mistakes and kill themselves, but they won't lose for lack of effort. They're a professional team, those Bills. St. Louis, on the other hand, is a river of liquid shit.
Bills over Rams, 24-14
Washington @ Dallas
The Line: Dallas by 11
Look at that line again. Dallas by 11 points. 11! That's the biggest margin of the week! Now, I know Dallas is playing like the best team in football right now, but 11 points? Over a playoff team from last season? A 2-1 playoff team from last season? A 2-1 playoff team from last season that split the series and had a chance for the sweep? If I'm Jim Zorn, I've already assigned some kid to write down that line on 53 post-it notes and stick one on each player locker in the building. I've got huge posters of it out on the practice field. I end every sentence with "and they expect to beat us by 11 points".
Now, to be fair, there's this: last season, the Redskins had fought their way to an early 4-2 record by playing mostly close games against mostly decent teams before they headed to Foxborough to play the best team in the NFL in week 8. Redskins fans were cautiously optimistic about our chances of at least playing them close, and then New England delivered the most humiliating, most one-sided obliteration of the entire NFL season. Now, I'm not saying this Dallas team is at all in the same category as the 2007 New England Patriots, nor would I suggest for a second that this is the same Redskins team as last season, but I'm extremely wary of getting my hopes up for how they might fare on the road against a very hot opponent. The Cowboys are expected to win this game. The Redskins are expected to lose. I, of course, want the Redskins to win. I feel like they have a chance of winning, especially since they only lost by 6 points to the Cowboys in Dallas last season. But the truth is, they're on the road against the best team in football. It will take a huge, huge effort to walk away with this win. It will tell me pretty much everything I need to know about Jim Zorn if they pull it off. Right now, I feel like Trinity and Mouse from The Matrix, and I've just watched Neo scratch his way to a draw with Morpheus, and now he's going for the jump sequence. "Nobody does it on the first try", I tell myself, but I'm still chewing my fingernails to shreds. I know I'm not supposed to expect or even necessarily hope he can do it, but still.
Just remember, after Neo fails and falls, he goes on to kick some major ass down the line. That'll be the silver lining. Because as hopeful as I might allow myself to be, I can't pick Washington to win this game.
Cowboys over Redskins, 28-23
Philadelphia @ Chicago
The Line: Philadelphia by 3
I don't think it'll be that close. I think the Eagles will get to Kyle Orton with ease, and I don't think Matt Forte will be able to run the ball much. I know Donovan McNabb absolutely carved up a very stout Dallas defense in week 2, so he should be able to handle the Bears. It's also a homecoming for him, so I think he'll play very well. Frankly, I'm a little disturbed by the fact that the Redskins/Cowboys game gets the 4:15 slot, while the Sunday-nighter features the Kyle Orton-led Chicago Bears and the Monday-nighter features the Joe Flacco-led Baltimore Ravens. Seriously, why aren't Minnesota/Tennessee and Washington/Dallas in the primetime slots? Or maybe even Green Bay/Tampa Bay? Hell, I think most people would rather watch Houston/Jacksonville than either of these primetime turds. Neither Philly nor Chicago made the playoffs last season, and the Ravens were expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. What kind of primetime lineup is that?
Eagles over Bears, 27-17
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh by 7
Pittsburgh, without Willie Parker and Casey Hampton, might just be in trouble. I have serious doubts about whether this Ravens team can go into an environment as hostile as Hines Field and pull out a road win against a competent team. I know this much: as tough as Baltimore's run defense has historically been, the Steelers can't afford to do too much passing against pretty much anybody but Detroit's pass-rush. The Steelers need to wait for Baltimore to self-destruct, and with a rookie quarterback against one of the league's toughest, most confusing defenses, it's bound to happen. Pittsburgh just can't give Baltimore any chances to swing field position or get defensive points by playing too cute with the passing game. They've dodged several bullets already by allowing Ben Roethlisberger to get banged around as much as he has without any major, major injuries, and Baltimore's defense is no joke.
Because they're at home, because the Ravens have to rely quite a bit on a lot of youth on their offense, because Pittsburgh has a great defense and a lot of veteran savvy, I'm picking the Steelers. It may not be my iron-clad lock of the week, but it's the safe bet.
Steelers over Ravens, 14-10
No features or extras with the picks this week. For the record, I picked 7 of 13 road teams in week 4, so there's a very real chance that I'll finish below .500 on my picks for the week. I'll feel like a goddamn champ if I come out with a solid showing.
Go Skynards!
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
6 years, $65 million
The Rams are benching Marc Bulger and starting Trent Green against the Bills. I honestly don't know how to feel about this. I want to laugh hysterically, but I also feel like puking, or maybe taking a shower. This St. Louis situation can't get any worse. It just can't. I'm trying to imagine an injury, or another roster change, or another coaching decision . . . I don't know. Maybe if Scott Linehan were to get into a fist-fight with Stephen Jackson, something like that.
Week 3: In the Books
A fairly respectable 10-6 showing this week, although I probably could have pulled my head out of my ass and picked San Francisco at home over the atrocious Lions, and maybe gone ahead and picked the favored Cowboys on the road. Still, 10-6 ain't bad.
Atlanta over Kansas City, 38-14
My Pick: Atlanta over Kansas City, 17-10
So I think we can say with confidence that the Falcons are a lot better at home than they are on the road. In two home games they've scored 72 points with a margin of victory of just about two touchdowns. I hope they can find a way to keep that up; at the end of the season, if they can at least say they were consistently competitive in home games, that'll be something to build on for 2009. As for the Chiefs, man they really have no offense at all. It's become a joke. They gave the ball to Larry Johnson a bunch in this game, as if to say, "See? We still love you LJ!" That was a bit silly. You're down three scores and you're running the ball up the middle? I'm not sure that move demonstrates a commitment to winning, and I'm pretty sure it can't be good for a coach's credibility when he gets bullied in the media by one of his players.
Buffalo over Oakland, 24-23
My Pick: Buffalo over Oakland, 20-16
Great win for Buffalo. Coming from behind down the stretch and pulling out the win, even against a bottom-feeder like Oakland, is a confidence builder. They still don't seem to have much explosiveness in their offense, but there's a chance they can be the kind of team that wins in two of three phases (offense, defense, special teams) against just about any team in football. As for the Raiders, I think we all see the writing on the wall. Hell, the writing isn't even on the wall anymore, it's on ESPN.com's front page! Lane Kiffin will be fired as head coach of the Raiders this season. At this point, Al Davis has to do it, because if he doesn't, and it's revealed that he's just trying to frustrate and bully his young and talented head coach into resigning, he'll pretty much never be able to get a self-respecting head coach while he still has control of the franchise. I can't believe this kind of thing goes on in the NFL. Apart from a lopsided opening day loss to a so-far ridiculously explosive Denver team, the Raiders have been pretty damn competent, even without much production from the quarterback position. By just about any measure other than rapport with ownership, and perhaps media discretion, Kiffin has been doing a bang-up job turning around the NFL's most dysfunctional franchise of all time. Now he'll be fired because Al Davis can't bully him around and (shock!) Kiffin wants control over his own coaching staff. In my book, Lane Kiffin has done enough in less than two seasons in Oakland to get other good jobs in the NFL. Maybe not as a head coach right away, but he should be able to land a quarterbacks coach position or offensive coordinator, and then make the short jump back to head coach in a few seasons. Hell, I'd take him over Eric Mangina any day.
Tampa Bay over Chicago, 27-24
My Pick: Chicago over Tampa Bay, 14-13
The really sad thing about two teams built around "sturdy" defenses and lousy, boring offenses combining for 51 points is it disproves the "sturdy" defense theory without actually saying a thing about those lousy offenses. If anything, this game proves Jon Gruden is a lousy playcaller with Mike Martz's same pass-happy bend. I mean, seriously: 67 pass attempts to only 17 rushes. If I own the Bucs, I think about firing Jon Gruden today, but I probably wait until the end of the season, at which point the guy is toast. I'm serious. Not only has he burned bridges with yet another quality quarterback, but he's pretty clearly not doing anything serious with the Bucs, and this team has a very sturdy, very low ceiling. It's overhaul time in Tampa.
As for Chicago, they keep mustering up respectable offensive numbers, but they don't have the juice to contend in their division, weak though it clearly is, and in this year's NFC, if you don't win the NFC North, you're out of the playoffs, period. Unlike the Bucs, there's at least a little room for growth and improvement in Chicago, if it turns out Kyle Orton really can be a steady quarterback for a full season. Matt Forte looks like a keeper. Both these coaches are probably gone at the end of the season.
Minnesota over Carolina, 20-10
My Pick: Carolina over Minnesota, 21-17
I'm not sure anything actually happened in this game at all. Was this an electric football game?
Odd, isn't it, how Steve Smith's return coincided with Carolina's lowest scoring output of the season? Hmmmmm . . .
Miami over New England, 38-13
My Pick: New England over Miami by a lot
You'll read a lot about the single-wing offense and how brilliant it was and blah, blah, blah. I totally agree, but I'd just be repeating what you'll get elsewhere if I went on and on about it here. Good job by Miami's coaches, lots of creativity, great job thinking outside the box regarding the offense.
I want to talk about New England. About how they're a lot closer to being only this good, even with Tom Brady, than they are to being the 18-1 team of 2007. About how their once-fine defense is now awful, like a delicious hunk of goat-cheese that sat on your counter while you were on vacation for a week, turning into a rancid, putrescent blob of furry green goop. About that overrated offensive line. About a receiving corps that has virtually no ability to win individual matchups and depends exclusively on timing and rhythm to make plays. About the NFL's softest backfield. About a coaching staff that may just be coaching for the first time in years (YEARS!) without the benefit of a detailed analysis of their opponent's coaching signals.
Does this mean I expect the Patriots to henceforth remain among the NFL's bottom feeders? No. They'll find a way to compete. It may not always be above board, but they'll find a way. Does it mean I'll go back to picking their games like a normal person, instead of always calling for a dramatic blowout? Probably not. Like the rest of the NFL, it'll take me several weeks of New England playing like this before it finally sinks in. Still, it's not like Matt Cassel even played that poorly. Most of his throws were in the same areas of the field that Tom Brady throws to, only he had no time to throw and was sacked 4 times. The missing part of this game wasn't Tom Brady, it was New England's defense. They got absolutely shredded. If you think it was all because of the single-wing, take a second glance at Chad Pennington's numbers: 17-20 for 226 yards. That's lights out passing. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined for over 210 yards on the ground in only 33 carries, so unless Tom Brady is also the best in-the-box safety in football, there's a good chance the Patriots lose this game even with him in the fold.
New York Giants over Cincinatti, 26-23
My Pick: New York Giants over Cincinnati, 28-20
They needed OT to do the job. Other than that, I have nothing to report about this game. Well, there's this: if Chad Johnson isn't tanking this season (and I kinda suspect he is), then he's become maybe the crummiest number one receiver on any team in football. Seriously, is this guy gonna show up at any point this season?
Tennessee over Houston, 31-12
My Pick: Tennessee over Houston, 19-17
Ouch. It can't be much fun to be a Texans fan right now. They stink.
On the positive side, Steve Slaton had a nice day running the ball against one of the NFL's toughest run-defenses. Maybe he's the guy for them. That'd be great.
As for Tennessee, that's maybe the ugliest 31-point game and 19-point win they'll ever notch. Looking at their numbers, it's hard even to figure out how they managed it. They turned the ball over twice, had only one more first down than Houston, only outrushed 'em by 6 yards, actually had more punts, and four times as many penalties. I guess the key is they did the job in the red-zone and made the most of the three turnovers forced by their defense. It helps when you get a 99-yard defensive touchdown.
Washington over Arizona, 24-17
My Pick: Washington over Arizona, 24-21
I'm encouraged by the playcalling on offense and the execution of the passing game. Frankly, it's been so long since the Redskins have been the kind of team that frequently gets into the red-zone that I don't quite know what to do with myself. I'm liking the offense. That's the shortest way to put it. It seems to make good use of Washington's receivers, and it has so far been able to keep Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts in the back pocket like a trump card. I like it.
I'm most encouraged, though, by what I'm seeing from the defense. Yes, on the one hand, they haven't been especially tough against the run (28-yard showing against Reggie Bush notwithstanding), but on the other hand, they're in the top half of the league in total defense despite playing against two very high-octane offenses, in New Orleans and Arizona, and one Super Bowl Champion. Most importantly, they're forcing turnovers left and right, which works very well when paired with an offense that hasn't turned the ball over yet all season.
Against Arizona, the Redskins didn't really do what I said they had to do to win the game, which is get a lot of pressure on Kurt Warner. They did get some pressure on him, but what success they had at slowing him down came mostly as a result of using a lot of different looks on defense to confuse him and force him to make throws he didn't want to make. We shouldn't forget, Kurt Warner was the NFL's top-rated passer entering the game. Another thing I really like: Redskins defenders are getting their hands on a lot of balls. Jason Taylor had a few tipped passes. Carlos Rogers' pick came off a tip. Granted, Warner has a bit of a sidearm delivery, especially under pressure, but it speaks to the awareness of the personnel and the mentality of the defense that they're reacting to the ball with their hands.
I'm not ready to pitch Reed Doughty off a cliff, but he did get burned by Larry Fitzgerald for a long touchdown in a key moment, in another game in which Chris Horton performed very well. If nothing else, the split of playing time between those two guys has got to shift even more towards even. Horton is around the ball and has great instincts, especially for a rookie. Doughty is a smart player and a pretty safe safety, but he has a troubling history of getting beaten on deep throws.
At any rate, the Redskins are most of the way towards my 6-week goal for them, which is a record of no worse than .500 entering week 7. They just need a split in their upcoming road-and-road against Dallas and Philly. I'd be lying if I didn't say it will be extremely difficult to win either of those games. If they can just keep the turnover margin where it is and find a way to get a few of those beautiful long drives per game, plus the late big-strikes we've seen in the past two games, they'll give themselves a chance. A chance to win in each of two division road games, you've got to figure they'll come away with one, right?
Denver over New Orleans, 34-32
My Pick: Denver over New Orleans, 34-27
It was the high-scoring affair everyone hoped it would be. Two things: 1. the Broncos have one of the best home-field advantages in football, and it has very little to do with the spirit of their fans. This team always plays 100% better at home than on the road; 2. Neither of these teams plays a lick of defense. Holy hell. This is especially troubling for New Orleans, because they invested a lot in that defense in the offseason and they expect to win their division. Denver would probably be content with a prolific, fun-to-watch offense and a chance at a wild-card. If they get their division, so much the better! Through 3 games, New Orleans and Denver have given up 83 and 84 points, respectively, good for 28th and 29th in the NFL. I'm not real shocked to see Denver down there, their defense has been trending downwards for years. But New Orleans brought in Jonathan Vilma, and the truth is, I predicted that alone would be sufficient to return their defense to respecability. Not so much. I can imagine New Orleans winning the NFC South without much defense, but they'll fall flat on their faces in the playoffs if they can't get consistent stops.
San Francisco over Detroit, 31-13
My Pick: Detroit over San Francisco, 31-28
Now we're getting to it, the part of the week 3 NFL schedule with the scent of used diapers all over it. San Francisco/Detroit, Seattle/St.Louis, Baltimore/Cleveland . . . blech. A who's who of the bottom tier of the NFL.
At least in San Francisco's case, they've got a good runner in Frank Gore and a promising tight end in Vernon Davis. J. T. O'Sullivan is doing his best out there. I'm genuinely happy for the guy. I don't feel too good about his long term health, but such is the nature of a Mike Martz offense.
But Detroit! Yeesh. I can't see picking them again this year. Frankly, I can't believe I picked them on the road. I wouldn't pick them on the road again if they were playing at USC. Without a doubt, they're one of the bottom 2 or 3 teams in the NFL. They couldn't keep an opposing offense out of the end-zone if you relocated it to the surface of the Moon. I'm pretty sure they couldn't keep Ladainian Tomlinson from scoring if they had their entire 53-man roster on defense, the entire coaching staff, plus all their fans. And the offensive line would be significantly better if they replaced those guys with cardboard cutouts of themselves. Horrible. A terrible, terrible team. They're bad in all the wrong places: they've got no defense at all, and their offensive line is atrocious. So when their defense gives up 50 points in the first half, they can't go aerial to come back because their offensive line can't protect. This is what happens when you burn draft pick after draft pick on receivers, never address the depth or quality of your front lines, and get virtually nothing from the second half of any draft class in the last 10 years. For crying out loud, fire Matt Millen already!
Seattle over St. Louis, 37-13
My Pick: Seattle over St. Louis, 27-13
Don't believe the hype, Seattle fans: your team is crap. A visit from the Division III St. Louis Rams might make you look strong, but you're garbage. You might be good enough to earn a berth in a BCS Bowl Game.
Seriously, let's look at the numbers: your defense is 26th in the league in points allowed and 16th in yards per game, despite the fact that you've played Buffalo, San Francisco, and St. Louis. Just to put that in perspective, those three teams combined to go 15-33 last season. You've got a creampuff schedule, to be sure, but if you can't do better than this through 3 games against middling (at best) competition, forget all this chatter about being among the NFC's better teams. You're crap. Deal with it.
As for San Francisco, you're even worse. The NFC West is by far the worst division in the NFL.
Baltimore over Cleveland, 28-10
My Pick: Cleveland over Baltimore, 21-12
Cleveland sucks. Derek Anderson sucks. Braylon Edwards is overrated. Cleveland's defense is awful. This is a 6-win team.
Seriously, it's time we all came to accept that. Like everyone else, I fell for the hype with the Browns, picking them to contend for the wild-card in 2008. Please. They're terrible. They've scored 26 points through three games. That'd be laughable if it weren't so pathetic.
As for Baltimore, I respect this team. They haven't beaten anybody worth a damn and they haven't played on the road, but they're doing the job. They're still unquestionably among the worst maybe 6 or 7 teams in the NFL, but they're doing the job like professionals. They're this year's Buffalo Bills.
Jacksonville over Indianapolis, 23-21
My Pick: Jacksonville over Indianapolis, 21-10
Told y'all!
It's not the start of anything. I just don't think Jacksonville has it this year. They don't move the ball very well, and they have no offensive balance whatsoever. When they can run the ball, they can do a thing or two, but teams are figuring out you can stack the box against Jacksonville and they can't make you pay.
As for Indianapolis, it appears they're still out of rhythm. They've still got time to get into rhythm, but if they can't get back to the point of reliably posting 30 points on offense, they could be in trouble. Look: nobody in this division is good enough to run away with it, especially if the Colts aren't that team. But it's always been the case that Indy's offense was good enough to make up for their defensive shortcomings. In short, they could always depend on being able to outscore people. Then, late in 2006/07 and throughout 2007/08, they developed the kind of defense that didn't need the offense to outscore everybody. That seems to have ended this year. What may have also ended was the period of time when the Colts could depend on always putting up in the neighborhood of 30 points, and that would be very bad for them. I for one anticipate them getting back to that offensive rhythm, but they'll need to get healthy for that to happen, and they haven't been able to do that in over a year now. At second glance, the AFC South really isn't very good at all if Jacksonville can't dominate defensively and Indianapolis can't reliably gun down everybody. I expect both teams to improve as the season goes on, but I'm a little worried for both Indianapolis and Jacksonville right now. Both teams are playing for a deep run in the playoffs, but neither team is in any kind of form to make that a reality right now.
Philadelphia over Pittsburgh, 15-6
My Pick: Philadelphia over Pittsburgh, 27-17
Ummmm . . . uh oh. The Eagles sacked Ben Roethlisberger 6 times in the first half on Sunday. Know this: there's no way the Steelers can be a contender with that kind of protection. Everyone heard all the chatter about how weak Pittsburgh's offensive line was entering the season, but wow. To say their offensive line was dominated in this game would be a dramatic understatement. They could have stayed home and played better.
As for Philadelphia, it must be encouraging to prove they can win a game on defense, even against a formidable opponent like Pittsburgh. They stuffed the run, annihilated the passer, and did just enough offensively to ease on by and take the win. Both Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook were injured and they still won. Fortunately, neither injury seems too serious. A swaggering Philly team is even more dangerous when it's their defense doing most of the swaggering. What's with the strange NFC East fans and our adoration of those damn Eagles? Shouldn't I hate seeing a dangerous Philadelphia squad? Against all odds, I like the NFL a lot more when the Eagles are very good. Maybe it's because they don't have any true fans in their city, so I feel a certain amount of pity for them. That's got to at least be a part of it.
Dallas over Green Bay, 27-16
My Pick: Green Bay over Dallas, 75-5
Meh. Nice win for Dallas, on the road. They committed to the ground game and the ground game did the job for them. It certainly helped that the Packers looked a little chicken-shitty for the second straight game against the Cowboys. The Cowboys are a good team with a lot of weapons and enough talent on both sides of the ball that, unless they shoot themselves in the foot, they can and will beat any team that doesn't show up and play a hell of a game. You can't tip-toe in or play like the underdog against good teams, and I feel like the Packers have done one or the other of those in these last two contests. Last season, in Dallas, they played like the Division II road team against USC, coming out with flea-flickers and all kinds of bullshit before Brett Favre went down and they simplified things. This time, it was like Aaron Rodgers wanted no part of the pocket, so he fled each time he even sniffed a Dallas defender. He didn't play a terrible game, but it reflected an attitude among the Packers, as if they weren't the home team or weren't in the same class as the Cowboys. That's troubling, if you're a Green Bay fan, because this isn't an upstart team anymore: the Packers are playing with targets on their backs, they have to be the kind of team that gets all the way up for a big game and plays with a confident swagger. That will come with time for a youngster like Aaron Rodgers, but there are plenty of veterans on that team that should lead the way in that department. I hate to see a big match-up like this turn one sided because it means only one team was really ready to play and win.
San Diego over New York Jets, 48-29
My Pick: San Diego over New York Jets, 30-21
Ok, really, it was much worse than that. The Jets weren't in the game at all. The score was 38-14 in the third, and that's a much closer approximation of the actual spirit of this contest. As Mike Greenburg pointed out on Mike & Mike this morning, New York's two scores to that point in the game came on an interception return for a touchdown and a Leon Washington kick return to the 4-yard line. Brett Favre's numbers are totally bogus, as are the additional 15 points the Jets scored after this one had long been in garbage time.
Looking at the Jets through three games, I hope everyone is starting to get a sense of who these guys really are. They barely beat the Miami Dolphins in week 1. They got handled by the Tom Brady-less New England Patriots at home in week 2. On the road in week 3, they took one of the worst poundings of this young season at the hands of the 0-2 Chargers. They stink. Brett Favre, no Brett Favre, they're awful. If San Diego had really wanted to, they could have put 60 or even 70 on the board last night. That the Jets got handled in week 2 by a team that was then obliterated at home by a team that went 1-15 last season is probably all you need to know about how good they really are. So maybe we can all hop off Brett Favre's dick for a while, eh?
Now, a quick ranking of all 32 NFL teams through 3 weeks:
The Creme
1. Dallas Cowboys
So far, they really are the best team in the NFL.
2. New York Giants
Narrow win over the god-awful Cincinnati Bengals notwithstanding, their offense has looked pretty good and the defense is outstanding.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
They could very easily be 3-0 right now. Their only loss came on the road to the Cowboys.
Worse Than Their Record, But Chugging Along
4. Buffalo Bills
Home wins over the 1-2 Oakland Raiders and 1-2 Seattle Seahawks, and a very good road win over the 1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. All season long, they'll be worse than their record. Good for them.
5. Tennessee Titans
Home wins over 1-2 Jacksonville and 0-2 Houston, and a creampuff road win over 0-3 Cincinnati. Still, their defense has been outstanding and the running game is doing the job.
6. Denver Broncos
Home wins over 1-2 Oakland and 1-2 New Orleans, and a bullshit road win over 1-2 San Diego. Denver might have the best passing game in the NFL, but their defense is truly horrible.
Deeply Flawed, But Talented Enough to Win Their Division
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
Utterly exposed by the Eagles along the offensive line, but they've got a lot of talent and a big-time defense. Health could become a problem.
8. Green Bay Packers
Good-to-great offense, good-enough defense. I'm worried about the way they crapped the bed at home against Dallas, but still: their only loss was at the hands of the best team in the NFL.
9. Arizona Cardinals
Garbage wins against San Francisco and Miami actually look worse than a tough road loss to the Redskins. Still, what a passing attack! If they can get enough in the ground game and the same spunky defense, they should win the woeful NFC West.
10. Washington Redskins
After an ugly road loss to the Super Bowl Champions, they've beaten two legitimate playoff contenders and haven't turned the ball over on offense. Damn good. Damn, damn good.
Playoff Teams With Gulping Fans
11. Indianapolis Colts
Sooner or later, you go from expecting them to catch fire any minute to the cold, hard understanding that this team's best days are behind them. Hopefully that realization won't come before next season.
12. New England Patriots
You don't get drilled at home by the Miami Dolphins. You just don't. Especially not if you're another AFC East team. Turrible. I still think they have enough juice to win the division.
13. San Diego Chargers
The NFL's best overall offense and it's most overrated defense, rolled into one poorly coached disaster! Seriously, the Chargers could probably win the AFC West with their helmets on backwards, and with Norv Turner, A. J. Smith, and Tod Cottrell running the show, it'll probably come to that.
Let's Not Kid Ourselves, There's a Rude Awakening on the Horizon Here
14. Carolina Panthers
Hey, I'm pretty enthused about their promising 2-1 start, but this team is nowhere near as good as their record. Especially not with Steve Smith back in the lineup (Zammm!!!)
15. Atlanta Falcons
Before too long, they'll be back at the bottom where they belong. The thing is, they've won two games in convincing fashion against two awful teams, at home. On the one hand, so what? They beat a couple of terrible teams. On the other hand, that's what they're supposed to do.
16. Baltimore Ravens
Mmmmmm-hmm. Sure. Will anyone really be surprised if the Ravens lose 14-straight from here on? I didn't think so.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Proud enough to win maybe 5 or 6 more games all season. This is a crappy team, only good enough to eek out wins against other crappy teams. A narrow loss to New Orleans and a pair of not-especially convincing wins against the Falcons and Bears.
One-Dimensional Underachievers Who Might Sniff the Playoffs
18. New Orleans Saints
No defense. None. No running game to speak of. But damn if they can't put 35 on the board against just about anybody (except the Redskins, of course).
19. Jacksonville Jaguars
A banged up team with no passing attack, no offensive rhythm, and a lousy, overrated head coach. They'll compete all season, to their credit.
20. Minnesota Vikings
Living proof that a passing attack can actually be bad enough to bring down a team with an unstoppable running game and a dominating defense.
21. Seattle Seahawks
First embarrassed by the Bills in Buffalo, then out-gunned by the hideous 49ers at home, before finally hammering out a creampuff home victory over the so-bad-they're-almost-good St. Louis Rams. The Seahawks are a joke.
Not Bad Enough to be Dog-Meat, But Close
22. Chicago Bears
Tough and proud, the Bears are too damn professional to realize they'd be better off losing 13 games this season.
23. San Francisco 49ers
Damn, damn close to being dog-meat. A win over a lousy Seattle team and a home win over maybe the worst team in the NFL (Detroit). The 49ers are another team that would be better served by losing 13 games and jettisoning their awful coaching staff.
Now We're Talking Dog-Meat
24. Oakland Raiders
Actually a pretty professional team, but horribly undermanned and fatally dysfunctional. Get ready for 15 years of cellar-dwelling after Lane Kiffin is fired!
25. New York Jets
Hey, great narrow win over last year's worst-team-in-the-NFL in week 1! Too bad you got handled by the Patriots at home and brutally reamed in San Diego on Monday night.
26. Miami Dolphins
Great, great eff-you win over the Patriots in New England. It may be their only win all season, but it was a great one.
Bad Enough to Actually Make a Person Sick
27. Houston Texans
Nothing is working on this team except maybe the pass-rush. The offense has taken a giant, giant step backwards, to the point that they're actually considering benching Matt Schaub for Sage Effing Rosenfels.
28. Kansas City Chiefs
There are actually some things to like about the Chiefs: 1. their position in the 2009 NFL draft; 2. their position in the 2010 NFL draft; 3. actually, these will all pretty much be draft positions. Sorry.
29. Cincinnati Bengals
By virtue of the fact that they actually put up a fight on the road against the Giants, they get to sit a few spots ahead of the very bottom. It won't last.
Not So Sure These Guys Are Actually Even Attempting to Play Football At All
30. Cleveland Browns
Horrible. Truly horrible. When it comes right down to it, they might be the single most depressing team in all of football.
31. Detroit Lions
In 9 out of any 10 seasons of NFL football, the Detroit Lions wouldn't just be the worst team in the league, they'd be a sickening embarrassment to the entire sport. This season, they get to be just the second worst team around, and with a pretty wide margin between them and . . .
Possibly the Worst Team in NFL History
32. St. Louis Rams
When I say I'm not sure they'd put up much of a fight against USC, I'm being generous. Frankly, I'm not sure they'd put up much of a fight against date-rape. Ok, ok, that's a really inappropriate joke. Sorry. The point remains, this Rams team is set to test our basic assumptions about the parity of the NFL. They might find a way to lose more than 16 games this season.
Week 4 picks are coming up later in the week.
Atlanta over Kansas City, 38-14
My Pick: Atlanta over Kansas City, 17-10
So I think we can say with confidence that the Falcons are a lot better at home than they are on the road. In two home games they've scored 72 points with a margin of victory of just about two touchdowns. I hope they can find a way to keep that up; at the end of the season, if they can at least say they were consistently competitive in home games, that'll be something to build on for 2009. As for the Chiefs, man they really have no offense at all. It's become a joke. They gave the ball to Larry Johnson a bunch in this game, as if to say, "See? We still love you LJ!" That was a bit silly. You're down three scores and you're running the ball up the middle? I'm not sure that move demonstrates a commitment to winning, and I'm pretty sure it can't be good for a coach's credibility when he gets bullied in the media by one of his players.
Buffalo over Oakland, 24-23
My Pick: Buffalo over Oakland, 20-16
Great win for Buffalo. Coming from behind down the stretch and pulling out the win, even against a bottom-feeder like Oakland, is a confidence builder. They still don't seem to have much explosiveness in their offense, but there's a chance they can be the kind of team that wins in two of three phases (offense, defense, special teams) against just about any team in football. As for the Raiders, I think we all see the writing on the wall. Hell, the writing isn't even on the wall anymore, it's on ESPN.com's front page! Lane Kiffin will be fired as head coach of the Raiders this season. At this point, Al Davis has to do it, because if he doesn't, and it's revealed that he's just trying to frustrate and bully his young and talented head coach into resigning, he'll pretty much never be able to get a self-respecting head coach while he still has control of the franchise. I can't believe this kind of thing goes on in the NFL. Apart from a lopsided opening day loss to a so-far ridiculously explosive Denver team, the Raiders have been pretty damn competent, even without much production from the quarterback position. By just about any measure other than rapport with ownership, and perhaps media discretion, Kiffin has been doing a bang-up job turning around the NFL's most dysfunctional franchise of all time. Now he'll be fired because Al Davis can't bully him around and (shock!) Kiffin wants control over his own coaching staff. In my book, Lane Kiffin has done enough in less than two seasons in Oakland to get other good jobs in the NFL. Maybe not as a head coach right away, but he should be able to land a quarterbacks coach position or offensive coordinator, and then make the short jump back to head coach in a few seasons. Hell, I'd take him over Eric Mangina any day.
Tampa Bay over Chicago, 27-24
My Pick: Chicago over Tampa Bay, 14-13
The really sad thing about two teams built around "sturdy" defenses and lousy, boring offenses combining for 51 points is it disproves the "sturdy" defense theory without actually saying a thing about those lousy offenses. If anything, this game proves Jon Gruden is a lousy playcaller with Mike Martz's same pass-happy bend. I mean, seriously: 67 pass attempts to only 17 rushes. If I own the Bucs, I think about firing Jon Gruden today, but I probably wait until the end of the season, at which point the guy is toast. I'm serious. Not only has he burned bridges with yet another quality quarterback, but he's pretty clearly not doing anything serious with the Bucs, and this team has a very sturdy, very low ceiling. It's overhaul time in Tampa.
As for Chicago, they keep mustering up respectable offensive numbers, but they don't have the juice to contend in their division, weak though it clearly is, and in this year's NFC, if you don't win the NFC North, you're out of the playoffs, period. Unlike the Bucs, there's at least a little room for growth and improvement in Chicago, if it turns out Kyle Orton really can be a steady quarterback for a full season. Matt Forte looks like a keeper. Both these coaches are probably gone at the end of the season.
Minnesota over Carolina, 20-10
My Pick: Carolina over Minnesota, 21-17
I'm not sure anything actually happened in this game at all. Was this an electric football game?
Odd, isn't it, how Steve Smith's return coincided with Carolina's lowest scoring output of the season? Hmmmmm . . .
Miami over New England, 38-13
My Pick: New England over Miami by a lot
You'll read a lot about the single-wing offense and how brilliant it was and blah, blah, blah. I totally agree, but I'd just be repeating what you'll get elsewhere if I went on and on about it here. Good job by Miami's coaches, lots of creativity, great job thinking outside the box regarding the offense.
I want to talk about New England. About how they're a lot closer to being only this good, even with Tom Brady, than they are to being the 18-1 team of 2007. About how their once-fine defense is now awful, like a delicious hunk of goat-cheese that sat on your counter while you were on vacation for a week, turning into a rancid, putrescent blob of furry green goop. About that overrated offensive line. About a receiving corps that has virtually no ability to win individual matchups and depends exclusively on timing and rhythm to make plays. About the NFL's softest backfield. About a coaching staff that may just be coaching for the first time in years (YEARS!) without the benefit of a detailed analysis of their opponent's coaching signals.
Does this mean I expect the Patriots to henceforth remain among the NFL's bottom feeders? No. They'll find a way to compete. It may not always be above board, but they'll find a way. Does it mean I'll go back to picking their games like a normal person, instead of always calling for a dramatic blowout? Probably not. Like the rest of the NFL, it'll take me several weeks of New England playing like this before it finally sinks in. Still, it's not like Matt Cassel even played that poorly. Most of his throws were in the same areas of the field that Tom Brady throws to, only he had no time to throw and was sacked 4 times. The missing part of this game wasn't Tom Brady, it was New England's defense. They got absolutely shredded. If you think it was all because of the single-wing, take a second glance at Chad Pennington's numbers: 17-20 for 226 yards. That's lights out passing. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined for over 210 yards on the ground in only 33 carries, so unless Tom Brady is also the best in-the-box safety in football, there's a good chance the Patriots lose this game even with him in the fold.
New York Giants over Cincinatti, 26-23
My Pick: New York Giants over Cincinnati, 28-20
They needed OT to do the job. Other than that, I have nothing to report about this game. Well, there's this: if Chad Johnson isn't tanking this season (and I kinda suspect he is), then he's become maybe the crummiest number one receiver on any team in football. Seriously, is this guy gonna show up at any point this season?
Tennessee over Houston, 31-12
My Pick: Tennessee over Houston, 19-17
Ouch. It can't be much fun to be a Texans fan right now. They stink.
On the positive side, Steve Slaton had a nice day running the ball against one of the NFL's toughest run-defenses. Maybe he's the guy for them. That'd be great.
As for Tennessee, that's maybe the ugliest 31-point game and 19-point win they'll ever notch. Looking at their numbers, it's hard even to figure out how they managed it. They turned the ball over twice, had only one more first down than Houston, only outrushed 'em by 6 yards, actually had more punts, and four times as many penalties. I guess the key is they did the job in the red-zone and made the most of the three turnovers forced by their defense. It helps when you get a 99-yard defensive touchdown.
Washington over Arizona, 24-17
My Pick: Washington over Arizona, 24-21
I'm encouraged by the playcalling on offense and the execution of the passing game. Frankly, it's been so long since the Redskins have been the kind of team that frequently gets into the red-zone that I don't quite know what to do with myself. I'm liking the offense. That's the shortest way to put it. It seems to make good use of Washington's receivers, and it has so far been able to keep Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts in the back pocket like a trump card. I like it.
I'm most encouraged, though, by what I'm seeing from the defense. Yes, on the one hand, they haven't been especially tough against the run (28-yard showing against Reggie Bush notwithstanding), but on the other hand, they're in the top half of the league in total defense despite playing against two very high-octane offenses, in New Orleans and Arizona, and one Super Bowl Champion. Most importantly, they're forcing turnovers left and right, which works very well when paired with an offense that hasn't turned the ball over yet all season.
Against Arizona, the Redskins didn't really do what I said they had to do to win the game, which is get a lot of pressure on Kurt Warner. They did get some pressure on him, but what success they had at slowing him down came mostly as a result of using a lot of different looks on defense to confuse him and force him to make throws he didn't want to make. We shouldn't forget, Kurt Warner was the NFL's top-rated passer entering the game. Another thing I really like: Redskins defenders are getting their hands on a lot of balls. Jason Taylor had a few tipped passes. Carlos Rogers' pick came off a tip. Granted, Warner has a bit of a sidearm delivery, especially under pressure, but it speaks to the awareness of the personnel and the mentality of the defense that they're reacting to the ball with their hands.
I'm not ready to pitch Reed Doughty off a cliff, but he did get burned by Larry Fitzgerald for a long touchdown in a key moment, in another game in which Chris Horton performed very well. If nothing else, the split of playing time between those two guys has got to shift even more towards even. Horton is around the ball and has great instincts, especially for a rookie. Doughty is a smart player and a pretty safe safety, but he has a troubling history of getting beaten on deep throws.
At any rate, the Redskins are most of the way towards my 6-week goal for them, which is a record of no worse than .500 entering week 7. They just need a split in their upcoming road-and-road against Dallas and Philly. I'd be lying if I didn't say it will be extremely difficult to win either of those games. If they can just keep the turnover margin where it is and find a way to get a few of those beautiful long drives per game, plus the late big-strikes we've seen in the past two games, they'll give themselves a chance. A chance to win in each of two division road games, you've got to figure they'll come away with one, right?
Denver over New Orleans, 34-32
My Pick: Denver over New Orleans, 34-27
It was the high-scoring affair everyone hoped it would be. Two things: 1. the Broncos have one of the best home-field advantages in football, and it has very little to do with the spirit of their fans. This team always plays 100% better at home than on the road; 2. Neither of these teams plays a lick of defense. Holy hell. This is especially troubling for New Orleans, because they invested a lot in that defense in the offseason and they expect to win their division. Denver would probably be content with a prolific, fun-to-watch offense and a chance at a wild-card. If they get their division, so much the better! Through 3 games, New Orleans and Denver have given up 83 and 84 points, respectively, good for 28th and 29th in the NFL. I'm not real shocked to see Denver down there, their defense has been trending downwards for years. But New Orleans brought in Jonathan Vilma, and the truth is, I predicted that alone would be sufficient to return their defense to respecability. Not so much. I can imagine New Orleans winning the NFC South without much defense, but they'll fall flat on their faces in the playoffs if they can't get consistent stops.
San Francisco over Detroit, 31-13
My Pick: Detroit over San Francisco, 31-28
Now we're getting to it, the part of the week 3 NFL schedule with the scent of used diapers all over it. San Francisco/Detroit, Seattle/St.Louis, Baltimore/Cleveland . . . blech. A who's who of the bottom tier of the NFL.
At least in San Francisco's case, they've got a good runner in Frank Gore and a promising tight end in Vernon Davis. J. T. O'Sullivan is doing his best out there. I'm genuinely happy for the guy. I don't feel too good about his long term health, but such is the nature of a Mike Martz offense.
But Detroit! Yeesh. I can't see picking them again this year. Frankly, I can't believe I picked them on the road. I wouldn't pick them on the road again if they were playing at USC. Without a doubt, they're one of the bottom 2 or 3 teams in the NFL. They couldn't keep an opposing offense out of the end-zone if you relocated it to the surface of the Moon. I'm pretty sure they couldn't keep Ladainian Tomlinson from scoring if they had their entire 53-man roster on defense, the entire coaching staff, plus all their fans. And the offensive line would be significantly better if they replaced those guys with cardboard cutouts of themselves. Horrible. A terrible, terrible team. They're bad in all the wrong places: they've got no defense at all, and their offensive line is atrocious. So when their defense gives up 50 points in the first half, they can't go aerial to come back because their offensive line can't protect. This is what happens when you burn draft pick after draft pick on receivers, never address the depth or quality of your front lines, and get virtually nothing from the second half of any draft class in the last 10 years. For crying out loud, fire Matt Millen already!
Seattle over St. Louis, 37-13
My Pick: Seattle over St. Louis, 27-13
Don't believe the hype, Seattle fans: your team is crap. A visit from the Division III St. Louis Rams might make you look strong, but you're garbage. You might be good enough to earn a berth in a BCS Bowl Game.
Seriously, let's look at the numbers: your defense is 26th in the league in points allowed and 16th in yards per game, despite the fact that you've played Buffalo, San Francisco, and St. Louis. Just to put that in perspective, those three teams combined to go 15-33 last season. You've got a creampuff schedule, to be sure, but if you can't do better than this through 3 games against middling (at best) competition, forget all this chatter about being among the NFC's better teams. You're crap. Deal with it.
As for San Francisco, you're even worse. The NFC West is by far the worst division in the NFL.
Baltimore over Cleveland, 28-10
My Pick: Cleveland over Baltimore, 21-12
Cleveland sucks. Derek Anderson sucks. Braylon Edwards is overrated. Cleveland's defense is awful. This is a 6-win team.
Seriously, it's time we all came to accept that. Like everyone else, I fell for the hype with the Browns, picking them to contend for the wild-card in 2008. Please. They're terrible. They've scored 26 points through three games. That'd be laughable if it weren't so pathetic.
As for Baltimore, I respect this team. They haven't beaten anybody worth a damn and they haven't played on the road, but they're doing the job. They're still unquestionably among the worst maybe 6 or 7 teams in the NFL, but they're doing the job like professionals. They're this year's Buffalo Bills.
Jacksonville over Indianapolis, 23-21
My Pick: Jacksonville over Indianapolis, 21-10
Told y'all!
It's not the start of anything. I just don't think Jacksonville has it this year. They don't move the ball very well, and they have no offensive balance whatsoever. When they can run the ball, they can do a thing or two, but teams are figuring out you can stack the box against Jacksonville and they can't make you pay.
As for Indianapolis, it appears they're still out of rhythm. They've still got time to get into rhythm, but if they can't get back to the point of reliably posting 30 points on offense, they could be in trouble. Look: nobody in this division is good enough to run away with it, especially if the Colts aren't that team. But it's always been the case that Indy's offense was good enough to make up for their defensive shortcomings. In short, they could always depend on being able to outscore people. Then, late in 2006/07 and throughout 2007/08, they developed the kind of defense that didn't need the offense to outscore everybody. That seems to have ended this year. What may have also ended was the period of time when the Colts could depend on always putting up in the neighborhood of 30 points, and that would be very bad for them. I for one anticipate them getting back to that offensive rhythm, but they'll need to get healthy for that to happen, and they haven't been able to do that in over a year now. At second glance, the AFC South really isn't very good at all if Jacksonville can't dominate defensively and Indianapolis can't reliably gun down everybody. I expect both teams to improve as the season goes on, but I'm a little worried for both Indianapolis and Jacksonville right now. Both teams are playing for a deep run in the playoffs, but neither team is in any kind of form to make that a reality right now.
Philadelphia over Pittsburgh, 15-6
My Pick: Philadelphia over Pittsburgh, 27-17
Ummmm . . . uh oh. The Eagles sacked Ben Roethlisberger 6 times in the first half on Sunday. Know this: there's no way the Steelers can be a contender with that kind of protection. Everyone heard all the chatter about how weak Pittsburgh's offensive line was entering the season, but wow. To say their offensive line was dominated in this game would be a dramatic understatement. They could have stayed home and played better.
As for Philadelphia, it must be encouraging to prove they can win a game on defense, even against a formidable opponent like Pittsburgh. They stuffed the run, annihilated the passer, and did just enough offensively to ease on by and take the win. Both Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook were injured and they still won. Fortunately, neither injury seems too serious. A swaggering Philly team is even more dangerous when it's their defense doing most of the swaggering. What's with the strange NFC East fans and our adoration of those damn Eagles? Shouldn't I hate seeing a dangerous Philadelphia squad? Against all odds, I like the NFL a lot more when the Eagles are very good. Maybe it's because they don't have any true fans in their city, so I feel a certain amount of pity for them. That's got to at least be a part of it.
Dallas over Green Bay, 27-16
My Pick: Green Bay over Dallas, 75-5
Meh. Nice win for Dallas, on the road. They committed to the ground game and the ground game did the job for them. It certainly helped that the Packers looked a little chicken-shitty for the second straight game against the Cowboys. The Cowboys are a good team with a lot of weapons and enough talent on both sides of the ball that, unless they shoot themselves in the foot, they can and will beat any team that doesn't show up and play a hell of a game. You can't tip-toe in or play like the underdog against good teams, and I feel like the Packers have done one or the other of those in these last two contests. Last season, in Dallas, they played like the Division II road team against USC, coming out with flea-flickers and all kinds of bullshit before Brett Favre went down and they simplified things. This time, it was like Aaron Rodgers wanted no part of the pocket, so he fled each time he even sniffed a Dallas defender. He didn't play a terrible game, but it reflected an attitude among the Packers, as if they weren't the home team or weren't in the same class as the Cowboys. That's troubling, if you're a Green Bay fan, because this isn't an upstart team anymore: the Packers are playing with targets on their backs, they have to be the kind of team that gets all the way up for a big game and plays with a confident swagger. That will come with time for a youngster like Aaron Rodgers, but there are plenty of veterans on that team that should lead the way in that department. I hate to see a big match-up like this turn one sided because it means only one team was really ready to play and win.
San Diego over New York Jets, 48-29
My Pick: San Diego over New York Jets, 30-21
Ok, really, it was much worse than that. The Jets weren't in the game at all. The score was 38-14 in the third, and that's a much closer approximation of the actual spirit of this contest. As Mike Greenburg pointed out on Mike & Mike this morning, New York's two scores to that point in the game came on an interception return for a touchdown and a Leon Washington kick return to the 4-yard line. Brett Favre's numbers are totally bogus, as are the additional 15 points the Jets scored after this one had long been in garbage time.
Looking at the Jets through three games, I hope everyone is starting to get a sense of who these guys really are. They barely beat the Miami Dolphins in week 1. They got handled by the Tom Brady-less New England Patriots at home in week 2. On the road in week 3, they took one of the worst poundings of this young season at the hands of the 0-2 Chargers. They stink. Brett Favre, no Brett Favre, they're awful. If San Diego had really wanted to, they could have put 60 or even 70 on the board last night. That the Jets got handled in week 2 by a team that was then obliterated at home by a team that went 1-15 last season is probably all you need to know about how good they really are. So maybe we can all hop off Brett Favre's dick for a while, eh?
Now, a quick ranking of all 32 NFL teams through 3 weeks:
The Creme
1. Dallas Cowboys
So far, they really are the best team in the NFL.
2. New York Giants
Narrow win over the god-awful Cincinnati Bengals notwithstanding, their offense has looked pretty good and the defense is outstanding.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
They could very easily be 3-0 right now. Their only loss came on the road to the Cowboys.
Worse Than Their Record, But Chugging Along
4. Buffalo Bills
Home wins over the 1-2 Oakland Raiders and 1-2 Seattle Seahawks, and a very good road win over the 1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. All season long, they'll be worse than their record. Good for them.
5. Tennessee Titans
Home wins over 1-2 Jacksonville and 0-2 Houston, and a creampuff road win over 0-3 Cincinnati. Still, their defense has been outstanding and the running game is doing the job.
6. Denver Broncos
Home wins over 1-2 Oakland and 1-2 New Orleans, and a bullshit road win over 1-2 San Diego. Denver might have the best passing game in the NFL, but their defense is truly horrible.
Deeply Flawed, But Talented Enough to Win Their Division
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
Utterly exposed by the Eagles along the offensive line, but they've got a lot of talent and a big-time defense. Health could become a problem.
8. Green Bay Packers
Good-to-great offense, good-enough defense. I'm worried about the way they crapped the bed at home against Dallas, but still: their only loss was at the hands of the best team in the NFL.
9. Arizona Cardinals
Garbage wins against San Francisco and Miami actually look worse than a tough road loss to the Redskins. Still, what a passing attack! If they can get enough in the ground game and the same spunky defense, they should win the woeful NFC West.
10. Washington Redskins
After an ugly road loss to the Super Bowl Champions, they've beaten two legitimate playoff contenders and haven't turned the ball over on offense. Damn good. Damn, damn good.
Playoff Teams With Gulping Fans
11. Indianapolis Colts
Sooner or later, you go from expecting them to catch fire any minute to the cold, hard understanding that this team's best days are behind them. Hopefully that realization won't come before next season.
12. New England Patriots
You don't get drilled at home by the Miami Dolphins. You just don't. Especially not if you're another AFC East team. Turrible. I still think they have enough juice to win the division.
13. San Diego Chargers
The NFL's best overall offense and it's most overrated defense, rolled into one poorly coached disaster! Seriously, the Chargers could probably win the AFC West with their helmets on backwards, and with Norv Turner, A. J. Smith, and Tod Cottrell running the show, it'll probably come to that.
Let's Not Kid Ourselves, There's a Rude Awakening on the Horizon Here
14. Carolina Panthers
Hey, I'm pretty enthused about their promising 2-1 start, but this team is nowhere near as good as their record. Especially not with Steve Smith back in the lineup (Zammm!!!)
15. Atlanta Falcons
Before too long, they'll be back at the bottom where they belong. The thing is, they've won two games in convincing fashion against two awful teams, at home. On the one hand, so what? They beat a couple of terrible teams. On the other hand, that's what they're supposed to do.
16. Baltimore Ravens
Mmmmmm-hmm. Sure. Will anyone really be surprised if the Ravens lose 14-straight from here on? I didn't think so.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Proud enough to win maybe 5 or 6 more games all season. This is a crappy team, only good enough to eek out wins against other crappy teams. A narrow loss to New Orleans and a pair of not-especially convincing wins against the Falcons and Bears.
One-Dimensional Underachievers Who Might Sniff the Playoffs
18. New Orleans Saints
No defense. None. No running game to speak of. But damn if they can't put 35 on the board against just about anybody (except the Redskins, of course).
19. Jacksonville Jaguars
A banged up team with no passing attack, no offensive rhythm, and a lousy, overrated head coach. They'll compete all season, to their credit.
20. Minnesota Vikings
Living proof that a passing attack can actually be bad enough to bring down a team with an unstoppable running game and a dominating defense.
21. Seattle Seahawks
First embarrassed by the Bills in Buffalo, then out-gunned by the hideous 49ers at home, before finally hammering out a creampuff home victory over the so-bad-they're-almost-good St. Louis Rams. The Seahawks are a joke.
Not Bad Enough to be Dog-Meat, But Close
22. Chicago Bears
Tough and proud, the Bears are too damn professional to realize they'd be better off losing 13 games this season.
23. San Francisco 49ers
Damn, damn close to being dog-meat. A win over a lousy Seattle team and a home win over maybe the worst team in the NFL (Detroit). The 49ers are another team that would be better served by losing 13 games and jettisoning their awful coaching staff.
Now We're Talking Dog-Meat
24. Oakland Raiders
Actually a pretty professional team, but horribly undermanned and fatally dysfunctional. Get ready for 15 years of cellar-dwelling after Lane Kiffin is fired!
25. New York Jets
Hey, great narrow win over last year's worst-team-in-the-NFL in week 1! Too bad you got handled by the Patriots at home and brutally reamed in San Diego on Monday night.
26. Miami Dolphins
Great, great eff-you win over the Patriots in New England. It may be their only win all season, but it was a great one.
Bad Enough to Actually Make a Person Sick
27. Houston Texans
Nothing is working on this team except maybe the pass-rush. The offense has taken a giant, giant step backwards, to the point that they're actually considering benching Matt Schaub for Sage Effing Rosenfels.
28. Kansas City Chiefs
There are actually some things to like about the Chiefs: 1. their position in the 2009 NFL draft; 2. their position in the 2010 NFL draft; 3. actually, these will all pretty much be draft positions. Sorry.
29. Cincinnati Bengals
By virtue of the fact that they actually put up a fight on the road against the Giants, they get to sit a few spots ahead of the very bottom. It won't last.
Not So Sure These Guys Are Actually Even Attempting to Play Football At All
30. Cleveland Browns
Horrible. Truly horrible. When it comes right down to it, they might be the single most depressing team in all of football.
31. Detroit Lions
In 9 out of any 10 seasons of NFL football, the Detroit Lions wouldn't just be the worst team in the league, they'd be a sickening embarrassment to the entire sport. This season, they get to be just the second worst team around, and with a pretty wide margin between them and . . .
Possibly the Worst Team in NFL History
32. St. Louis Rams
When I say I'm not sure they'd put up much of a fight against USC, I'm being generous. Frankly, I'm not sure they'd put up much of a fight against date-rape. Ok, ok, that's a really inappropriate joke. Sorry. The point remains, this Rams team is set to test our basic assumptions about the parity of the NFL. They might find a way to lose more than 16 games this season.
Week 4 picks are coming up later in the week.
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