Thrown Together NFL Preview and Week 1 Picks

I got as far as the AFC South before I ran out of time on a more comprehensive NFL preview. It turns out I don't have anywhere near as much time to bullshit around on NFL things at my current job. Ah well. Picks and season previews will be rolled up together for this, which must be completed before tonight's season opener. Here we go!

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh by 6.5

Pittsburgh won the Super Bowl in 2008, and I think they'll be even a little bit better in 2009. They haven't solved their offensive line problems, but they proved last season that you can win a Super Bowl with shaky pass protection. If they can stay healthy at key positions, they should be back in the AFC Championship. On the flip side, with shaky protection and a risk-taking quarterback, you're always only a play away from a major disaster. If such a thing should happen, the Steelers would be lucky to get a wild-card. The AFC is nowhere near as deep as the NFC, but it's still a tough conference.

As for Tennessee, they're not going to be a special team in 2009. In 2008, Jason Campbell threw for 3200 yards, 13 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, a 63% completion percentage, and an 84 passer rating. That was good enough for him to be nearly replaced twice this off-season, and he's 27 years old, has a cannon arm, and was playing in his first season in a new offense. In 2008, Kerry Collins threw for 2600 yards, 12 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, a 58% completion percentage, and an 80 passer rating, behind the NFL's best offensive line, with the NFL's strongest running game, and the NFL's best defense giving him a short field. Is he going to play that well this season? He might. It will not be enough to get the Titans to the playoffs. Especially since their defense is due for a major downturn, and they're still depending upon LenDale "Buffet Killer" White in their backfield. Have they solved their receiver issues? Nope. On paper, this is a lousy football team in need of a rebuild. Jeff Fisher will keep them competitive, but they're done competing for the AFC South.

As for this game, I like the home team.
Steelers over Titans, 20-10

Miami @ Atlanta
The Line: Atlanta by 4
Miami had a fluky 2008. The Wildcat helped them along, as did some uncharacteristically healthy seasons from some injury prone key components in their offense. They don't have a ton of talent on either side of the ball, but they have good schemes and they play well within them. Chad Pennington doesn't make many mistakes, and they've got a talented backfield. I could see them remaining competitive in 2009. Their defense doesn't scare me, but then, it didn't scare me last season, and they still found a way to get the job done. They're a well-coached, hard-working bunch of nobodies, and I respect that.

Atlanta, on the other hand, could be primed for "the leap" in 2009. They've got a franchise quarterback in Matt Ryan. They've got talent at receiver and a legitimate number one guy in Roddy White. They've got a sharp, HOF professional at tight end in Tony Gonzalez. They've got depth, durability, and serious talent in their backfield. They've got a young-but-feisty offensive line. In short, they've got all the pieces you're looking for on offense. On defense, they'll have to jump up and surprise folks, but they had some spark last season, and a knack for making big plays. Another season in Mike Smith's system, who's to say they don't emerge as a top-third defense in 2009? That could be enough to take them to a 12-win season.

As for this game, it should be interesting. I don't see how anyone could root against these two teams. I think the home team'll take it, but I wouldn't be surprised either way. I'd be surprised most if Atlanta played poorly, but I expect both teams to play well, with Atlanta pulling ahead on their pedigree.
Falcons over Dolphins, 27-21

Kansas City @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 13
Without getting too into it, I like Todd Haley as the coach of the rebuilding Kansas City Chargers. I'm not sold on Matt Cassel, but I'll say this; the Chiefs went from Herm Edwards and Tyler Thigpen to a guy who coached in the Super Bowl in 2008 and the guy who played behind Tom Brady, with Scott Pioli running things behind the scenes. Their pedigree took a huge, huge leap. Haley, for his part, is a detail-obsessed lunatic who stalks the sidelines blazing with the intensity of a thousand suns. Would I want to play spades with him? Probably not. But as the coach of the previously expectation-free Chiefs, I think he'll do a good job. In 2009, the Chiefs will get de-pantsed, bent over, and man-raped by a gang of rabid Grizzly bears, many times over, but down the road, I think they can build a contender with this nucleus.

The Ravens are already half way up that same incline. They've got their franchise quarterback, they've got a brilliant executive running the show, and they've got a sharp, professional, feisty young head coach with a few ideas to keep opposing teams guessing. They've got depth in the backfield. Their defense is still formidable. I don't see them winning the AFC North, but I think they'll win 10 or more games, a lot of them ugly, and put a scare into someone in the playoffs. A side note, though; they need to start getting younger in their secondary and in the linebacking corps.

Baltimore is going to pound the unholy shit out of Kansas City on Sunday. It's going to be really, really brutal.
Ravens over Chiefs, 28-6

Philadelphia @ Carolina
The Line: Philadelphia by 2.5
I'm not buying the hype on Philly at all. First of all, since when was LaSean McCoy a world-beater? Gimme a friggin' break. The Eagles didn't scare me one effing bit with those receivers in 2008; I'm supposed to believe an undersized rookie who played in a spread offense in college suddenly makes a 9 win football team into a Super Bowl favorite? Hell, hell, hell no. Not with that old-ass, fake offensive line, headlined by the biggest fraud in the business, sullen fatso Jason Peters. Not with a new defensive coordinator running a show that suddenly doesn't include last year's starters at middle linebacker and free safety. Not with a head coach who still can't commit to the run and still can't manage a game. Not on a team that is notorious for buying their own hype and sleep-walking through games. No way. Maybe I'm wrong, but I just don't see it. It's all a lot of hype.

Carolina could be a lot of hype, too, but I like their makeup a lot better. A durable twosome in the backfield. A young offensive line with genuine talent. A proven number one receiver. Their defense isn't scaring me (yet), but they've done more with less in the past. Jake Delhomme is a big question mark, but if they've figured out how to win at home, they could post another 10-win season and challenge for the South. And that's really all I have to say about that.

And you know what? I'm picking the home team. I reckon Carolina will run the ball straight down Philly's gullet, tire out their pass-rush, hit a couple of big pass plays, and keep Philly's "dangerous" offense on the sidelines. Philly's big names will tune out early, and after a few three-and-outs, they'll have that "this is bullshit, we're better than you anyway" smirk on their faces by halftime, which is a sure sign of a Philly loss.
Panthers over Eagles, 24-17

Denver @ Cincinnati
The Line: Cincinnati by 4
Denver is going to be an awful, awful football team. Not just this season, either. Josh McDaniels is a turd. He'll be Oakland's quarterback coach in another couple of years, toiling away in Siberia with the disaster he wrought on one of the NFL's most stable franchises hanging around his neck like a big, fat scarlet A. I feel bad for Kyle Orton, who established himself just in time to get paired up with this dummy and who can expect to be supplanted in Denver before week 10. To top it off, Denver doesn't even have one single piece required to run a good 3-4 defense. I hate, hate, hate the state of this franchise. I'd be rooting for their demise if not for my pity of Orton.

As for Cincinnati, they still have most of the pieces of a dangerous offense. They might be able to score some points, if they can keep Carson Palmer upright behind a shockingly unqualified offensive line. I think their defense will surprise a lot of people in 2009, and not with how bad they are. They still have a knucklehead coach who can't manage a game for squat, but I think they're starting to think of themselves as a team who has to play hard and precise to win football games, which beats the hell out of what they used to be; a team that thought they could trash-talk and strut their way to victory. They've even become a sexy sleeper pick to make a run at a wild-card. Don't get carried away with that crap; they'll be lucky to sniff 8 wins in 2009. But there's at least the potential for success, as long as they stay healthy at some key positions.

Nobody in their right mind cares about this game, though. I suppose Cincy will win, because they've got more pieces and they're at home.
Bengals over Broncos, 20-10

Minnesota @ Cleveland
The Line: Minnesota by 4
It would almost be a blessing if Adrian Peterson was lost for the season. To injury, to retirement, to depression, to suspension, hell, even to kidnapping. Even more hell, I'd consider death! That way, I could hate the Vikings with the fury of God's own thunder. As it stands, I hate about 85% of that franchise, but I can't round that final bend and fully hate them, not when they have the NFL's most electrifying player, not when he happens to be a really good guy. So I'm basically fucked; I'd like nothing more than to see the Vikings lose 16 games in 2009, except for that to happen, either AP would have to sustain a devastating injury, or he'd have to have one hell of an abysmal season, casting his historical context into immediate doubt.

I feel confident saying this, though; Brett Farve doesn't make them so much better that it's worth the cost to Minnesota's chemistry and future. He won't play even remotely well in up to half of their games this season, because he's old, because he's busted down, because he missed all of training camp, because he's actually not all that good a quarterback, and because he makes horrible, horrible decisions when pressured. So there.

As for Cleveland, look, that team is a joke. They had the briefest of windows when it looked like they might have some pieces. Now? I hate even glancing at their roster. Eric Mangini is a guy who, I think, knows what to look for in putting together a cohesive team. I don't think he knows shit about game-management, and I don't think his players buy into his swinging baloney. I think he's a little bit embarrassing to his players. That can work when you're the hokey, Christian, we-can-do-it! sort of coach. I don't think it'll work when you're the slick, gum-chewing, tough-talking, nerd-in-macho-costume Mangini so obviously is. He's been handed two critically flawed quarterbacks, an ancient tailback, one (1) receiver, and a pretty good offensive line. I'm not sure you can build a dangerous offense around that foundation. And I'm doubly not sure they can put together much of a defense with what they have on that side of the ball, especially in the secondary. I guess we'll see. Everyone's all up Mangini's ass for his defensive prowess. Again, we'll see.

This happens to be another game I don't give two shits about. If Cleveland wins, I'll be yucking it up come Monday. But I expect they'll open 2009 with another loss. They just don't have the talent at all.
Vikings over Browns, 27-7

New York Jets @ Houston
The Line: Houston by 4.5
I don't expect much from Rex Ryan's tenure in New York. Why? First, his dad was a crap head coach, and those Ryan boys effing worship their dad. Secondly, he's far too much of a player's coach. Third, he's all ga-ga over the media attention that comes from being a head coach, and I hate that crap. Fourth, some guys just don't have it as game-managers, and Ryan strikes me as one of those guys. Some of the most important stuff a head-coach does takes place in those time-sensitive down-and-distance moments in critical points in close games, and those are moments when your head has to be into the situation. I believe Ryan is a smart enough guy. The problem? The vast, overwhelming majority of those make-or-break moments happen when your offense is on the field, and I flat do not believe Ryan is a cerebral enough guy to be sharp on his offense in those moments.

All that, plus I don't at all like New York's talent on offense, and they're starting a rookie quarterback who reminds me of a homosexual matador. It's just that way, and I won't apologize for it.

Houston, on the other hand, has serious offensive fire-power. If their offensive line is even a little bit better, and they've gotten even a little bit better in the red-zone, this team could be putting up 27 points a game, and if that happens, they'll win 10 games. Their defense doesn't scare me, and there's absolutely no way Mario Williams puts up another dozen sacks without drastically improved play from the rest of the front-seven, not unless he's Super Mario Williams, and can flatten offensive linemen by bouncing off their heads and shoot fire-balls at quarterbacks when he . . . ummm . . . touches a specific red flower, but if they're a middle-of-the-pack defense in 2009 with an occasionally frightening pass-rush, they'll win 10 games.

In short, I expect the 2009 Houston Texans to finally hit double-digit wins.

And I expect them to win this game, fairly easily.
Texans over Jets, 31-20

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
The Line: Indianapolis by 7

Jacksonville doesn't scare anybody on either side of the ball. They just don't have any playmakers anywhere on the roster. They're doing the right thing, rebuilding the team from the lines outward in the draft, but it'll be another few years before they're ready to make a push into the postseason. I hope Jack Del Rio is long gone by then, so they can have a genuine back-bone when they get there. But as it stands, they've got a shitty coach and no playmakers.

Indy's getting a little long in the tooth in some key places, but they've done a nice job of finding younger guys to step in and play key positions at a high level. Their window may be closing, but they'll continue to be super-sharp and dangerous on offense. I worry about the subtle switch away from Tony Dungy's Tampa-2 scheme, because it's really the only defense that works when you're undersized up front. I also worry about the fragility of some of their key defensive guys, and the lack of depth behind them. If Indy's defense stays healthy and plays like they can, Indy could win the AFC. If the defense struggles, they'll probably still challenge for the South, if not win it outright. I'm not at all worried about their passing game. The running game does bother me a bit, because they've struggled mightily in short yardage situations for two years now, but again, health will play a major role in this, because they definitely have the talent.

Indy should win this game. I expect Jacksonville to compete, but I don't see them winning this game on the road.
Colts over Jaguars, 30-17

Detroit @ New Orleans
The Line: New Orleans by 13

The Lions still stink, I'm sorry to say. I'm not at all happy with the decision to start Matthew Stafford. All other reasons aside, this kid has not looked ready to play against NFL defenses this preseason. When he stinks, you can't pull him, because it'll wreck his confidence and start the whole "bust" conversation. Daunte Culpepper is a big, strong, healthy, veteran quarterback with a bazooka arm. The last time this guy was the healthy starter on a turf team with talent at receiver, he put up numbers that make Pro Bowl quarterbacks hide under the blanket. At worst, you've got a guy you can compete with and some excitement in the wings. I especially don't like this decision being made by a first-time head coach with a defensive background. This reeks of a guy in over his head with big, gooey, dinner-plate eyes over his young golden boy. I don't see it ending well. How many consecutive losses will Detroit accumulate before the whole city spontaneously combusts?

New Orleans, on the other hand, has a scary offense. I expect them to leap right back to the top of the NFL in most offensive categories. I don't know why everyone likes them more than last year, but they were pretty scary last year, so there's at least that to look forward to. Drew Brees will continue to put up huge numbers. I still don't care much for their defense, and I'm certain Gregg Williams is not the guy to take them to the next level. They'll be in the running in the NFC South, and I could see them securing a first round bye in the playoffs, but I don't think of them as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. We'll see.

New Orleans will easily win this game. They could probably win if they played their offense both ways.
Saints over Lions, 35-16

Dallas @ Tampa Bay
The Line: Dallas by 6

You know, this whole NFL preview thing is getting really tired. I think I need a break. I think I'll take a team or two off.

Okay, I got my second wind. The Bucs are off to a bad start with the Raheem Morris era. The whole hiring and firing of Jeff Jagoff-inski was a disaster, from start to finish. You've especially got to love it when a coach admits publicly that his lack of NFL experience led him to hire his OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR because the guy's name was on the rise, even though he didn't really know much at all about his offense or his coaching style. Yikes. I'm not impressed by any single part of Tampa Bay's roster. They need work. I think they're making the right decision by shelving Josh Freeman for the time being. He's a big kid with good athleticism and a big arm, but he needs some work, and hopefully they'll get an honest-to-goodness quarterbacks coach in there and bring him along slowly. He could have a future.

Dallas wins! Dallas wins! Dallas wins!
Cowboys over Buccaneers, 28-14

San Francisco @ Arizona
The Line: Arizona by 6.5

Okay, now it really is getting exhausting.

I don't care at all about the NFC West.

San Francisco could be much better, especially on defense. They might also have a running game. If they've figured out how to get the ball to Vernon Davis, they could score some points. If they do, they could win 9 or 10 games in a best-case-scenario type season.

Arizona is one injury at any one of 4 different positions away from being a weak team. I think it'll happen. If not, they should win their division. I don't have any confidence in a team that loses both coordinators, sleepwalks through the preseason, and starts Kurt Warner at quarterback.

I'm picking the road team. Call me crazy.
49ers over Cardinals, 19-17

Washington @ New York Giants
The Line: New York Giants by 6.5

I'm really excited about the 2009 Redskins. I think their offense will take a huge, huge step forward now that they've found a healthy, talented second receiver from among their young options. I think the offensive line will be much better. I think Jim Zorn will open up the offense a bit. On the other side of the ball, I think Albert Haynesworth will make a big difference, but I actually think Brian Orakpo will make a bigger difference. I think that, by midseason, Jeremy Jarmon will have carved out a role for himself as a situational pass-rusher. I think the secondary will have more opportunities to make plays because of an improved pass rush. I honestly, honestly think the Redskins could win as many as 12 games in 2009.

New York will still probably win the NFC East. They've got terrifying depth at all the important positions. Their defensive line scares the shit out of me. I like their receivers. I like the way this team seems to always play with a chip on their shoulders. I think they're going to have a great, great season.

And it'll start with a win at home on opening day. I hope it's a shootout.
Giants over Redskins, 28-27

St. Louis @ Seattle
The Line: Seattle by 8.5

St. Louis is going to be terrible in 2009. There will be serious questions about whether or not Steve Spagnuola is cut out to be an NFL head coach. He is, but there's absolutely no talent on this team. Okay, maybe there is, but I don't see it as the kind of talent you build around. Maybe that's just me. I honestly wish him the best of luck out there, but it looks like a wasteland.

Seattle is probably the second or third most overrated team in the NFL right now. Funny how that was also true last preseason, and the season before that, and the one before that, etc., etc., etc. They could win some games this season, but I'm not impressed by that team. I hate their backfield, their receiving corps, and most of their defense. I'll be unhappy if they have a good season.

They'll win this one easily.
Seahawks over Rams, 33-13

Chicago @ Green Bay
The Line: Green Bay by 3.5

Chicago has some interesting pieces. Too bad none of them are on defense. They won't be able to afford the turnovers they just bought by trading for Jay Cutler. Could they get into the playoffs? Maybe. I hope not. I do still like Lovie Smith, but if it takes him getting fired for this whole Jay Cutler sausage-gobbling to stop, well, I'm willing to make that sacrifice.

Green Bay looks to me like a really intriguing Super Bowl pick. That offense scares me. If the defense can do anything at all with this new 3-4 look, they could win a lot of games. I like them to win the North.

And it'll start with a nice home win to open the season.
Packers over Bears, 35-24

Buffalo @ New England
The Line: New England by 11

Buffalo stinks. It's a shame, because I honestly think they have some nice young pieces. If T.O. doesn't wreck this team's mojo by week 3, there's a shot in hell they put it all together and make a showing in the wild-card race. They'll need improved offensive line play, they'll need Trent Edwards to take another step forward, and they'll need their young defense to continue to grow as a unit, especially in the category of rushing the passer. It could happen. For some reason, I see them sinking down towards the bottom of the AFC. I guess I hope not, but I do hate T.O.

New England, on the other hand, should still be solid gold for 11-14 wins in 2009, provided they stay healthy. I don't think they'll overwhelm teams like they did two seasons ago, but they're sharp and sturdy enough to win easily over most teams. This will be one sad, sad season if New England goes back to playing the contemptible bully now that Tom Brady is healthy again. I might swear off the NFL if that coincides with the Redskins collapsing.

Pats win.
Patriots over Bills, 38-17

San Diego @ Oakland
The Line: San Diego by 9.5

San Diego goes into 2009 just as anointed as ever. Makes me sick, actually. Will they win the West? Sure. Will they be a disappointment by almost any other measure? I think so.

Oakland is garbage. Pure garbage. Juice and all.

An upset in this one would make me incredibly happy. And really, how can you pick against what would make you incredibly happy?
Raiders over Chargers, 35-27

There probably won't be a recap, and there may not be week 2 picks, because I'll be out of town this week. I'll see what I can slam together when I get back in.

Go Skynards!