Motherfucking Week 11 Picks

And off we go, y'all!

New York Jets @ New England
The Line: New England by 3
Hey, another totally wacky line by Vegas. Let's recap:

In week 2, in Matt Cassel's first career start, in New Jersey, the Patriots beat the Jets for the 10th time in 11 matchups, 19-10. 9 points. In New Jersey. In Matt Cassel's first career start. 10th time in 11 games.

Here we are, 9 weeks later, and the Jets are going to New England to face a much improved Patriots team, only the Patriots are only favored by 3. 3 points? Really?

But here's the thing about this game: you just can't say you know either team, even after 9 games apiece. You can't predict from week to week who Brett Favre is going to help win on any given Sunday. The same could be said for Matt Cassel. One week, the Jets run the ball extremely well, the next they give the ball to 3 different guys 4 times each and ring up a whopping 22 minutes of time of possession. With the Patriots, one day Kevin Faulk's corpse leads the team with 8 carries for 19 yards, the next week some guy with 8 surnames is ringing up a buck twenty and two scores. So what's constant, here?

Well, in New York's case, the two constants have been the play of their defense and their creampuff schedule. In New England's case, the constants have been the A+ coaching and Wes Welker's almost meaningless production as the most overrated "underrated" player in the history of sports. Headed into this game, we can go ahead and eliminate one of the constants: New England is no pushover, so the Jets won't benefit from their opponent's ineptitude. But we can probably go ahead and be sure their defense will stuff the run. We can go ahead and be sure Bill Belichick will have a great gameplan for the Pats. We can go ahead and pencil in 6 garbage underneath catches to Captain Hitch.

And since the game is in New England and they get to keep both of their constants, they'll win.
Patriots over Jets, 21-17

Denver @ Atlanta
The Line: Atlanta by 6
There's a healthy looking line.

Atlanta is just too monstrous at home. They flat-out overwhelm teams in their stadium. They run the ball too well, they rush the passer too well, and they have an uncanny knack for hitting big plays in the first half. Denver doesn't stop the run, Jay Cutler doesn't respond well at all to heavy pressure, and the run game will set up all the playaction in the world for Matt Ryan. Nah, I think Atlanta covers the six points (and then some) and I think this one is probably over by halftime.

Denver is one of those old-school .500 teams, and I kinda respect them for it. Once upon a time, there were two kinds of .500 football teams: the teams that played one way for one half of the season, then another way for the other, and the teams that had one big-time strength they could use to kill some teams, but they'd never beat certain other kinds of teams. Denver fits comfortably into the latter group. They do one thing well: they connect on mid-range and deep passes. That's it. Teams that can't put together a strong pass rush or keep Denver off the field will be in trouble. Teams that can get in the backfield or have good rush offenses will be fine.

Nowadays, you've got the "Del Rio" .500 teams that have no consistent identity whatsoever, so they can put up 38 points against one bottom feeder right after dropping consecutive games to two others. "Del Rio" .500 teams are poorly coached. They don't get maximum value from their players, they don't have good gameplans, they don't consistently show up, and they have no identity. This recent phenomenon is the result of the dilution of talent in the NFL. No, not player talent; coaching talent. 20 years ago, Jack Del Rio would be where he belongs: coaching special teams or linebackers on someone else's staff. As a head coach, you never know what kind of effort to expect from his team week to week, and it's maddening.

So at least I respect the Broncos for having an identity. It makes it easy to know which games they'll compete in and which games they'll get pounded in. I think they'll get pounded in this one. We'll see if my formula holds up.
Falcons over Broncos, 30-24

Minnesota @ Tampa Bay
The Line: Tampa Bay by 3.5
No matter what else happens, this one should be ugly and low scoring.

Unlike other games, I'd say Minnesota's one chance in this one actually isn't Adrian Peterson. Peterson might have a nice game, but I'd say the chances of him breaking out for a monster are as slim as they'll be all season. Against this infernal Tampa-2, Minnesota badly needs Gus Frerotte to hit a couple of big plays to Bernard Berrian. They've had it in 'em a few times this season and they need to find it again on Sunday. I just don't see Minnesota sustaining drives at all against Tampa's signature defense, especially not with the way Frerotte has been throwing the ball lately. They'll need big plays or turnovers to win this game. I think we can write off altogether the possibility of them doing anything positive on special teams. Frankly, it'd be noteworthy if their special teams don't lose the game for them.

The only story I care about in this one is the return of Cadillac Williams. What a draw, right? "Hey, glad to see you've recovered from having your leg almost snapped off, here's Minnesota's third-ranked rush defense to welcome you back to action!" Yipe. Frankly, I'd like to see him sit this one out and maybe knock the rust off against someone like . . . say . . . Detroit, who Tampa visits in week 12. It'd just be a fantastic story and great, great news if Williams is able to return to being a productive player. A few years back, this guy had a big-time season and won Rookie of the Year for it.

So let's say he returns in this game and is everything he was before he was hurt. Know what? That could make a big difference in the outcome here. But there's just no way to predict that, and besides, with Jon Gruden running the offense, Williams or Ernest Graham will probably pass out from shock if they hear a running play called in the huddle.

Make a pick already. Christ.

The game is in Tampa, their defense is pretty nuts, and Minnesota is incompetent both in the passing game and on special teams. A big play will decide the day. In Minnesota's case, they're far more likely to cause a big play for the opposition by just being a pack of poorly coached morons. Therefore . . .
Bucs over Vikings, 17-13

Baltimore @ New York Giants
The Line: New York Giants by 6.5
I effing love this match-up. I can't wait!

Baltimore's defense is actually underrated this season. Pittsburgh's defense has gotten more attention. Tennessee's defense has gotten more attention. New York's defense has gotten more attention. But Baltimore's defense might actually be the best of the bunch. You cannot run on the Ravens. They have the second ranked overall defense and the best rush defense in the NFL, and they are nasty. I just love the idea of Tom Coughlin dialing up a first quarter full of Brandon Jacobs lowering his shoulders into the interior of Baltimore's defense. I can't wait. In last season's Super Bowl, Coughlin made a statement early by cramming Jacobs up New England's ass, and on his turf against this swaggering unit, I expect more of the same. I can't wait!

Baltimore, on the other hand, will have to be a bit more calculating, and they'll probably have to take a few more risks. I don't see them having a ton of success running the ball against New York's third ranked overall defense, but unlike New York's offense, there's just no way Baltimore can expect Joe Flacco to drop back and throw often without either having his head and spleen removed or throwing a bunch of interceptions. Flacco could have a great game, but you just can't predict it and you can't game-plan for it. Luckily, John Harbaugh hasn't been shy at all about dialing up the gadget plays, and I think it'll take something along those lines to get some offense going in New York. It should be fun. I can't friggin' wait!

Ultimately, New York has some hard to define edge. It can't really be Eli Manning: secretly the entire national sports media knows he's still just as capable of crapping the bed against a ferocious defense as ever. It's not their defense because their defense isn't better than Baltimore's. It could be depth on offense. No, I guess the edge is experience in big games, and this qualifies as a big game for both teams; a huge game, actually. This is about as close to a playoff game as any week 11 regular season non-conference game can be. Baltimore can keep pace in the division and potentially take a commanding step forward in the wildcard race, to say nothing of the prestige that comes with knocking off the red-hot Super Bowl champs at home. New York will probably be in a dog-fight all season long in the NFC East, especially if they can't put Baltimore away at home. I'm giving New York the edge, Vegas is giving New York the edge, but this game should be physical, desperately fought, and entertaining as hell. And ultimately, it'll probably come down to the home team making those few key plays, here and there, that decide a close game.
Giants over Ravens, 17-13

Oakland @ Miami
The Line: Miami by 10.5
We thought Oakland was crap at home, just wait until they have to travel all the way across the country for a 1pm game in Miami. This should be an absolute horror.

One great thing about the NFL is the way design, scheme, playbook, coaching style, and personnel all sort of fit together to produce a special team. On a special team, you've got guys who really know the system, work well with the coaches, and have taken ownership of the fate of the team. On the other hand, a really sad thing that happens in the NFL is the way poor executive decisions, turnover, and turmoil can utterly ruin a very talented player's career, such that we remember them only for how they failed to deliver on their draft stock. We're not quite there yet with JaMarcus Russell, but I'm starting to get a sick feeling about this kid every time I think about him toiling in such a poisonous environment, under such disastrous management, with such a scrap heap of talent around him, and with so much turnover above his head. Lane Kiffin might not have been a great coach, but he was a coach, anyway, and he understood offense and quarterbacking. Tom Cable is definitely not a great coach, and after this season, he probably won't be a coach at all. And the thing is, the Raiders have been so awful for so long, the next guy to come in is going to have to be somebody who is thinking about turning things around right away. I give Oakland's diseased fanbase a lot of shit, but it says something that they haven't grown totally apathetic in the last 6 years. They're right on the brink now. Local blackouts are becoming the norm. The next person to take the reigns in Oakland will need to be a Mike Smith, Tony Sparano, Jim Zorn type, who has a strong identity for his team and the magical ability to have success right away. Which will mean JaMarcus Russell will have to adapt quickly or be dumped.

Frankly, and I hate to say it, but this kid is screwed. Can anybody say "Akili Smith"?

Miami wins this game, probably huge. Apparently Al Davis has forced Tom Cable to take playcalling responsibilities away from Greg Knapp in Oakland. Can you imagine that shit? Friggin' Al Davis calls you up into his office and says, "from now on, you're calling plays." Ummmm, what?

Right, as I was saying, Miami wins huge.
Dolphins over Raiders, 31-6

New Orleans @ Kansas City
The Line: Saints by 5
I don't know, New Orleans by five on the road? Well, on the other hand, Kansas City is dog-shit, and they'll do whatever they can to lose this game. That much they've already established.

I said it in my week 10 recap and I'll say it again here: if you're an NFL fan, you're bummed the Saints are in Kansas City this weekend as opposed to, say, Baltimore or New York or Philadelphia or Arizona or New England. Another loss here and it won't be unofficial any longer: the Saints will be all but technically eliminated from contention. On the one hand, more teams in contention means more games that matter. On the other, more important hand, if the Saints go down we can stop recycling the "they might get hot" theme every other week. Forget the Saints. They made improvements to their defense this season, but they haven't panned out. Another season, who knows? But this team has no business in the playoff discussion, and I'm ready to officially eliminate them.

As for the Chiefs, I mean, what the fuck. I will never ever ever take this team seriously as long as Herm Edwards is calling the shots. I'm not kidding, the Chiefs would have to win back-to-back Super Bowls before I'd even start taking them seriously. If they win the Super Bowl in 2009, it'll only influence my opinion of the NFL and the AFC. This guy cannot coach. He cannot. From now until he quits coaching forever, I will only feel pity for his players and the fans of whatever franchise is stupid enough to hire him.

So though it annoys me to no end, I'm not only picking the goddamn Saints, I'm actually rooting for the goddamn motherfuckers. And I NEVER root for the favorites, not unless the Redskins are the favorites, especially not pansy-ass butter-soft overrated pieces of crap like this New Orleans team.
Saints over Chiefs, 34-27

Detroit @ Carolina
The Line: Carolina by 14
I have a bad, bad feeling about whoever lines up at quarterback for the Lions this week. Carolina's pass rush is coming along big-time, and Detroit is circling the drain. The only quarterback on Detroit's roster I'd feel comfortable picking to survive this game is Dan Orlovsky, and only then because he's played a few games without running out the back of the end zone. When your best chance is Dan Orlovsky because he hasn't scored points for the opponent in a while, you're in bad shape.

But it won't be Dan Orlovsky. Not only is he apparently not the guy in Detroit, he's also injured. It'll be Daunte Culpepper. Culpepper is an outstanding, outstanding quarterback. Give this guy two seasons in an offense with a stable coaching staff and roster, and he'll start to put up big numbers. But he's had all of 2 weeks to get familiar with Detroit's offense, and keep in mind we're talking about one of the worst, most pathetic offenses in a decade. This isn't like a talented drummer trying to come in and quickly get into a groove with the Rolling Stones, okay, this is like a talented drummer coming into an elementary school band two weeks before they open for the Rolling Stones. It's going to be a disaster, and if he leaves with his reputation intact, it'll be a miracle. For the third time in as many stops for this guy, I feel just horrible for him.

Any hope the Lions win this game? Maybe. Somewhat better than a snowball's chance in hell. But the odds are long. Real long.
Panthers over Lions, 27-10

Philadelphia @ Cincinnati
The Line: Philadelphia by 9
I'll be interested to see how Ryan Fitzpatrick plays against Philly's confusing, aggressive defense. Look, I'm not putting Fitzpatrick in the class of other young quarterbacks, like Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. The simple fact of the matter is, after this season, Flacco and Ryan will have jobs and fans and contract extensions and maybe even an award or something, whereas Ryan Fitzpatrick will have some bruises, a shite reputation, and the depressing reality that his best chance to stick in the NFL will be as backup to Carson Palmer on the nauseatingly dysfunctional Cincinnati Bengals. Congratulations, you poor bastard.

Nevertheless, he's shown some spirit in his starts this season, and that's enough to make him officially the only thing related to the Cincinnati Bengals I give even a half a damn about.

As for the Eagles, the question isn't whether they should win the game, although they'd have you believe otherwise. As far as the Eagles are concerned, the fact that they're better on paper than the Bengals ought to be enough to get them . . . what, into the playoffs, perhaps? So I guess we're watching to see whether or not they show up, and if they do, how much of a pounding can they put on the Bengals? It should be hideous. I can't promise or even feel the least bit confident the Eagles will show up with any energy at all. They should win anyway.

So I guess I'll go out on a limb and predict the Eagles manage to give a damn about this game, and therefore, they'll whip the living shit out of Cincinnati.
Eagles over Bengals, 41-17

Chicago @ Green Bay
The Line: Green Bay by 4
If last week wasn't the whole season for the Packers, certainly this one is. There's pressure on this team that a lot of other franchises don't have to deal with, and if they lose this game and drop so far behind the division lead, the confidence hit will be tremendous.

They're lucky, though, to be playing for their season at home. Consider it like a home playoff game, because it's every bit as important. And fortunately, Chicago's secondary hasn't been worth a damn for a while this season and it probably won't be on Sunday. The key, then, will be whether Green Bay's offensive line can protect against what is actually a pretty fierce Bears pass rush. If not, Green Bay could be in trouble, because Ryan Grant's sorry ass probably won't break out against Chicago's tough run defense.

But Green Bay doesn't necessarily need a big game from their offense to win on Sunday. They showed against Minnesota that they can score in other ways, and they'll get chances to make defensive plays against the Bears, especially if Rex Grossman plays. The Packers will obviously want to shut down Matt Forte and force Grossman to make plays against Green Bay's talented, play-making secondary. With any luck, that'll get Green Bay a few short fields, and that could be enough for them to win.

Then there's this: this is an NFC North game, and as we've already established this season, throw anything obvious out the window. This game could be anything: the teams could combine for 10 points and 200 yards of total offense, or it could be a ridiculous farce, a 90 point, 1,000 yard circus with a half dozen turnovers and two special teams touchdowns. Who the fuck knows?

This game has a ton of meaning for one team and not as much for the other. It means more to the home team, so I'm pickin' 'em.
Packers over Bears, 23-16

Houston @ Indianapolis
The Line: Indianapolis by 8.5
For the umpteenth week in a row, we'll hope to discover whether or not Indianapolis is serious about making a run this season. They've won two very tough games in a row. Now they have the division doormat at home with a chance to burst towards the top of the AFC Wild Card race. Do they have it? If they do, they'll effing pound the shit out of the Texans. I don't know, though. I'm still skeptical. I suppose we all are.

But you can't underestimate the "Sage Rosenfels" factor. In an incredibly short period of time this season, Rosenfels has established himself as the suicide quarterback. His finest work, in fact, came against these Colts in week 5, in a performance that will, sadly, probably define his career. In two starts in 2008, Rosenfels has 7 turnovers. 7 turnovers! Extrapolate that bitch out to 16 games, and you're talking about 56 turnovers! I'm not saying he's that bad a quarterback, but it takes a special effort to be on that sort of pace.

At any rate, in seasons past, this is the kind of game Indy would use to flex their muscles a little. If they're anything like their former selves, they'll win this game going away. Shit. It's really hard to pick it that way, but I do have that feeling. On the other hand, Houston's offense is better than either New England's or Pittsburgh's, so I guess I could see Houston hanging around unless Indy comes up huge on offense.

You know what? I can't make it a blowout. I can't. Maybe if it is a blowout, I'll be able to pick some that way for Indy down the stretch. This is a "show me" game, I guess.
Colts over Texans, 34-27

St. Louis @ San Francisco
The Line: San Francisco by 6
Yeah, I'm not going to pretend to care about this game. I suppose the 49ers will win. I won't pick them to cover the spread. There you have it.
49ers over Rams, 24-20

Arizona @ Seattle
The Line: Arizona by 3
And that's about all you need to know about how confident anyone is in Arizona's ability to win on the road: 3 points? Against the god-awful Seahawks? There's something there.

Matt Hasselbeck may play, but I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid. More than any other quarterback that I can remember in the NFL, Hasselbeck is only as good as the receivers he's throwing the ball to and the protection in front of him. When the protection is great and the receivers are solid, Hasselbeck can put up some numbers. When the protection is off, even a little, or he's not totally familiar with the receivers, Hasselbeck plays like an F- piece of shit loser. Seriously. If this guy doesn't exemplify the concept of front-running, nobody does. And this Seahawks team is in the toilet, his receivers are banged up, his line is awful, and the defense hasn't been good enough to keep the offense in range anyway. So Matt Hasselbeck, no Matt Hasselbeck, this team sucks.

But it's not like the goddamn Cardinals are invincible. A team with their history in this division is one of two things this week: either frothing at the mouth about the opportunity to splatter the former division big-dog all over their own stadium, or hollow in the stomach and shivering under a cold sweat about the idea of traveling to hellish Seattle and putting their momentum on the line against a team that has historically owned them. Hopefully this is a different Cardinals team. I know the Seahawks are dogshit, but won't we learn quite a bit about Arizona coming out of this game? The Giants, the Ravens, the Steelers, the Patriots, even the Eagles, these teams would pound the living shit out of the Seahawks under similar circumstances. Those are the hungry, pissed off, intimidating teams. That's one of those traits you have to have to be a serious contender. Arizona is among the group of good teams that may not have the killer instinct, but we might feel differently about that if they go up to Seattle and tear the Seahawks to shreds in front of their crowd, no matter who steps under center for Seattle.

Obviously, I'm not sold on them having the killer instinct yet. Right now, I'm comfortable picking them, even on the road, even in Seattle, but I think it'll be closer than it should be.
Cardinals over Seahawks, 27-24

Tennessee @ Jacksonville
The Line: Tennessee by 3
Tennessee could also be in that group that may or may not be killers. I think they are. It seems like Keith Bulluck, Albert Haynesworth, and Cortland Finnegan were born killers. Kerry Collins is an old pro, you can't expect him to let up for anybody. Jeff Fisher is a baller and has been around the block, I'd expect any team coached by him to have a killer instinct. But this will be the game where we learn for sure. Jacksonville is down but not out. Tennessee can deliver a gruesome, definitive death blow Sunday afternoon.

It was encouraging to see Jacksonville squeeze the innards out of Detroit on Sunday, if for no other reason than it shows they weren't looking ahead to the Titans. Going full speed and flattening the Lions into an oily smear was probably the best possible way to get ready for an all or nothing home game against the league's dominant team.

This game probably comes down to whether or not Jacksonville can slow down Tennessee's ground game like Chicago did, and whether they can create a short field for themselves and take advantage. For the second time in two weeks, I'm going to go out on a limb here and pick the home team. Seriously, Tennessee has to lose sooner or later, right? And this is the second straight road game against what ought to be a tough, physical opponent. That's never a great thing. I could feel really stupid again on Monday, but I just have a feeling the Jaguars will still be lingering come week 12.
Jaguars over Titans, 21-20

San Diego @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh by 4.5
Pittsburgh will be in a bit of trouble if they lose this one. It'll be three straight home losses, and they might even find themselves in second place in the North. So it's a damn important game for the Steelers. Obviously, it's a damn important game for the Chargers, too, but when have the Chargers ever shown they understand the importance of any given game?

I don't think I can pick the Chargers. Not only do they have a crappy defense, they tend to shoot themselves in the foot and they're as poorly prepared and poorly coached as any team in football. Not only that, but I doubt Philip Rivers will be able to carry his offense against such a ferocious defense. I just can't pick 'em. Especially not on the road.

It could happen. Pittsburgh is a disjointed piece of crap at the moment, they're banged up, and they don't seem to be able to build any momentum from game to game. The good news for them is this is the second of three straight home games, and good teams tend to get healthy and gain some momentum when they get a few at home in a row. If they played poorly against Indy, they're likely to play a lot better against the Chargers. But think about how bad this would be for Pittsburgh's confidence if they go from losing a home game to the desperate Colts (who used to be the AFC's powerhouse), to losing at home to a desperate Chargers team (the glossy AFC favorite). That'd be a bad thing.

So I don't think it'll happen. In Mike Tomlin's short tenure as Pittsburgh's head coach, his team has been a lot better at home. I don't think they could possibly lose a third straight at Heinz, especially not at the hands of this soft-ass, poorly coached mess from San Diego. I'm picking the Steelers, I feel confident they'll win.
Steelers over Chargers, 28-23

Dallas @ Washington
The Line, and the Best News I've Ever Gotten: Dallas by 3
Dallas by 3. Dallas (5-4) by 3 in Washington. Dallas (5-4), who lost to Washington at home 7 weeks ago, by 3 in Washington. Christmas came early this year, y'all.

What a huge, huge insult. I had to close and reload that webpage multiple times to make sure that line was correct. Dallas (5-4), who lost to Washington (6-3) at home 7 weeks ago, by 3 in Washington, with Wade Phillips as head coach. My God. When has any 6-3 team ever been so disrespected by the media, by Vegas, or by opponents? At this point, Jim Zorn playing the "nobody believes in us" card would almost be overkill.

What's worse? The Cowboys by 13.5 in Dallas in week 4, or the Cowboys by 3 in Washington in week 11? I'm stunned, stunned by that line.

And it will make it so, so, so much worse if the Redskins lose at home when the friggin' Cowboys are favored after losing to the Redskins in Dallas this season. That can't happen.

How the fuck do I pick this game? I can't even get my mind right after reading that. How the hell do I even begin to think about how either team wins or loses this contest? Fuck! I'm friggin' blown by this. What can I do but take the exact score from the week 4 game and drop it in here. The Redskins must win this game. They know it. They have the better coach. They had the bye week, which is like multiplying the better coach factor by 10. They must win.

The Cowboys must win this game, but do they know it? Wade Phillips is a bad, bad coach. A bye week doesn't mean shit for a bad coach. A must-win doesn't mean shit for a bad coach.

I'm picking the Redskins, let's lay that out right now.

In order to win this game, the Redskins need a healthy Clinton Portis, and they need him tearing up the Dallas defense. They need a calm, upright Jason Campbell moving the chains. They absolutely must get regular pressure on Tony Romo, and they absolutely must give the offense a short field by either forcing turnovers, getting big special teams plays, or both. By God, the Redskins should win this motherfucking game. I'm even giving them the biggest boost of all by not personally watching the game on television, but tracking it online and on the radio. They can't get a bigger advantage than that. C'mon, guys . . .
Redskins over Cowboys, 26-24

Cleveland @ Buffalo
The Line: Buffalo by 5
Cleveland can deliver a death blow to Buffalo's once promising season on Monday night. Will they do it? Watch and see!
Bills over Browns, 20-17

Go Skynards!