Two News Items, Wild-Card Recap, and Divisional Picks

Let's start with the news:

1. The Associated Press is reporting the Joe Gibbs will resign as head coach and president of the Washington Redskins. I've been refreshing ESPN.com every 20 or minutes or so since the Redskins were eliminated by the Seahawks on Saturday in anticipation of this kind of news. I'm not shocked, and when it comes to actual game-management, playbook utilization, and strategic preparation, I'm not all that bothered: I really thought, overall, that ol' Joe kept the Skins in 3rd gear too often. I have to judge him that way, even though I really like and respect him and thought he was good for the Redskins in both his tenures. When I watched the Skins this second go 'round, especially this season, I was very often frustrated by the tempo of the offense or the lack of game to game and especially first half to second half adjustments. I'm proud of the way their season played out, but I'm not going to forget or write-off those agonizing Sundays when I was pretty appalled by the coaching decisions of the team.

On the other hand, the Skins had what a lot of other teams in the NFL do not, and will not: a combination of guts, heart, professionalism, and sharpness, and it enabled them to accomplish things that much more talented teams failed to accomplish; notably, a wild-card berth. I'm worried about that part, because I look around the NFL and see a wealth of X's and O's coaches who couldn't coach heart or pick it out of a line-up, and couldn't maintain the kind of professional team the Redskins have under any circumstances. I worry that the next coach in Washington will be a rebound guy, someone who overcompensates for Joe's conservative style but lacks the character to bring out the absolute best in this group of guys. I'd much rather (MUCH MUCH MUCH RATHER) have a 9-7 team I can be proud of and feel good about than a team loaded with superstars and controversy with a smug "genius" as head coach: trust me, in Washington, we've been there. I'm at the point, now, where I'm kinda hoping the Skins turn to ol' Joe Bugel, just to keep the same blood-line. I'd take Russ Grimm: he played for Gibbs. Please let it be Russ Grimm.

Anyway, in the end, I respect the job Joe Gibbs did in his second tenure with the Redskins. No, wait, in fact, I marvel at it, and we Skins fans appreciate all he's done for our team.

2. By some total fluke of timing, I found myself watching 60 minutes on Sunday when the Roger Clemens interview with Mike Wallace was aired. That, combined with his press conference yesterday, has left me convinced of two things: A) Roger Clemens took steroids and HGH. He's one of the worst, most incompetent liars I've ever watched tell a lie. I'm pretty good at diagnosing a lie, I even enjoy it. Clemens doped. Period. B) Roger Clemens is a total asshole. The worst thing he ever did was go on television with Mike Wallace. If he'd done that interview with Skip Bayless, maybe then he'd get away with it. When you talk down to and scold a journalist, you'd better make sure you know who you're talking to. Mike Wallace has interviewed some heavy hitters in his time, Roger Clemens is a C-list piece of shit to 60 minutes, the equivalent of Mike Wallace interviewing Paris Hilton. It shows Clemens' arrogance that he'd go on 60 minutes and shout at Mike Wallace or act like he's insulted by the questions. In his press conference, he basically told HOF voters to take their votes and shove 'em. What a prick. Above everything else, this guy is most upset about not being given the benefit of the doubt. Hey, dickhead, here's a newsflash for your semi-retarded ass: you've been given the benefit of the doubt for almost 25 years, moron. It wasn't until your name showed up in a steroid report prepared by a US Senator that anybody took a crooked glance your way. What a fuckin' moron. This entitled prick is upset that media and fans aren't giving him the benefit of the doubt about steroids after being accused by a US Senator, when he didn't even issue a public denial for three weeks! What a turd. Ban his ass! From the Hall of Fame, from baseball, from IHOP. He's a loser. Clemens went on national television on Sunday night and made some of the dumbest-ass statements of all time: he claimed his rationale for not liking steroids is it would have shortened his career: really, Roger? Like it did for Barry Bonds? Idiot! Then he said that you'd know if he'd taken steroids because he'd have a third ear growing out of his forehead. I can't even sum up how stupid you have to be to say that. Should that be the "smoking gun" of steroid use? Deformity? Ears on foreheads? Does Jose Canseco have a third ear I don't know about? In addition to being a total prick and a juicer and a liar, Clemens is moron enough to make patently false statements about the effects and purpose of performance enhancing drugs to a national audience, operating under the arrogant assumption that the average Joe doesn't know enough about anything to decipher his bullshit. Oh, you mean steroids cause deformity? You mean they shorten careers? Well then CLEARLY Roger Clemens can't have taken any of it, never mind his barrel-chest and huge neck, never mind the fountain of youth that apparently springs up in his toilet every year, never mind the report by Senator, yes SENATOR Mitchell, never mind the testimony of his former trainer, never mind that his buddy Andy Petitte admitted to steroid use and corroborated Brian MacNamee's story. No third ear = no steroids. Douchebag.

Now to wild-card weekend!

First, an explanation: I crapped the bed on my wild-card picks. I failed to even make picks for the Saturday games. I would have picked Jacksonville and Washington. I kept putting it off and putting it off, then it never happened. As for Sunday's games, I gave you picks, but the barest of bare-bones even at that. Ok, really, I have no explanation, just an admission. I crapped the bed on my picks.

Seahawks over Redskins, 35-14
A couple of things stood out to me while watching this game. First, neither team was better than the other. This would have been a really fascinating game on neutral turf. The Seattle crowd was awesome, and that was enough. I don't really believe the Skins ran out of gas or anything, although I didn't think they had the same intensity or focus they've had in recent weeks. Mostly, I thought the kickoff recovery at the 13 should have given them an insurmountable edge: when they failed to score, it rejuvenated the Seahawks and discouraged the Skins. That will happen to any team under any circumstances when you take miraculous field position and fail to put points up, no matter how much emotion and intensity you've burned over the previous 17 weeks. It could be the New England Patriots, the Miami Dolphins, or anything in between: on the road, you get a gift at the 13 and don't put points up, the crowd comes to life, the opponent is encouraged, you are discouraged. Then Todd Collins threw a bone-head ball into deep coverage, a ball so bad on a route so well covered that Santana Moss didn't even bother looking back at the quarterback, and the rest is history. Now, Collins should never have thrown that ball, but Moss also should never assume the ball isn't coming his way. If he'd only bothered to play to the whistle, as every coach in Pee-Wee football has said a million times, he probably makes a play on that ball and knocks it free, or at least is in position to knock Trufant down after the pick. Who knows, maybe the game goes another way. But it happens to every team; with the Skins, it was in Seattle at the end of a Wild Card game. The second pick was a garbage toss into the defender's bread basket, but it didn't factor into the outcome of the game.

Now the Skins have an off-season to get right. I figure they need the following:

1. Depth on the offensive line.
2. Another disruptive defensive lineman who can get in the back-field.
3. A safety. It's true.
4. Another wide receiver.

The offensive line was crushed by injuries this season, but frankly, that's been the case for the past few years in Washington. Jon Jansen is injury prone. He's also a fucking great right tackle, probably the best in football at a weak position. But if you're going to have a fucking great right tackle with glass bones and wet-paper tendons and ligaments, you need a competent back-up. Stephon Heyer has a future, but the Skins need guys all along the line who can step in and pass protect. Randy Thomas is a great guard, but when he went down, the right side of the offensive line went down with him. Offensive line play is perhaps the biggest difference between a great offense and the San Francisco 49ers offense, and for the Skins, it's critical that they address their depth. I'll vomit if the Skins open 2008 with another make-shift front after a pre-season injury.

The defensive line needs help. Gregg Williams wants a defense that can create pressure with the front four, but that generally means you need a couple of things the Skins don't have: one or two ends who may not be able to stop the run but are automatic at getting pressure at end, and depth. I like everybody on the Skins defensive line, especially the younger guys, but they need to add a N. D. Kalu type, or an Elvis Dumervile: somebody who, on passing downs, WILL create pressure. So they only play on third and long, so what? Game after game this season, I watched opposing quarterbacks sit perfectly comfortably in the pocket in obvious passing situations, and you just can't have that, even with a brilliant secondary.

I'm not ready to write Reed Doughty off as a starting safety for the Redskins, but I have a hunch he's not the guy, and if he's not, they need to go get the guy. It's clear that the Skins were building a defense around a pretty much lights-out secondary. I don't know who the next stud safety is, but the Skins ought to have a list of great safeties in the draft, and they ought to snag one of 'em. With Carlos Rogers coming back healthy, Fred Smoot playing great football, and another year or two of Shawn Springs, the Skins are one solid-or-better safety away from having an elite secondary. I'm pulling for Doughty, but if he ain't the guy, well . . . he ain't the guy.

I still like Santana Moss. He's fast, he's elusive, he makes the Skins uniforms look cool, and I believe in him. I really like Antwan Randle El: he's a true football guy and ought to be wearing a Redskins uniform for the rest of his career. But after those two, who the hell else is there? Caldwell? Thrash? Lloyd? McCardell? These are not the receivers of a contender, and neither Randle El nor Moss is a true number one. I'm not saying they need a number one, but they need a third receiver in the same class as the first two. I don't buy the whole concept of needing a number one guy, but it's become obvious that a team needs a reliable, consistent trio of receivers to attack a defense. Plus imagine a Skins offense that puts Cooley in the seam and has three other fast, reliable, consistent receivers challenging the secondary . . . that'd be something. Hell, I'd even take another young tight end in Cooley's class, that'd be great too. But the point is, the Skins need another guy who, when he catches a pass, I'm not shocked to hear he's still on the team or in the NFL.

Beyond that, with another year of learning the Al Saunders system and hopefully getting healthy, the Skins should be a lock for the playoffs next season.

As for the Seahawks, I don't yet know what to think of their chances in Green Bay. I guess I'm not fully sold on the Packers, but I'm definitely not fully sold on Seattle on the road. Matt Hasselbeck looked like genuine crap on Saturday, and I'm sticking to my previous assessment that Hasselbeck isn't great, just a "good samaritan" quarterback, and won't elevate his team. The Jacks still couldn't run the ball on Sunday, and though they seemed to be dominating the game early, they couldn't put points up. On the road in Green Bay, you can't survive with that. I'll probably pick the Packers. It could be a good game.

Jaguars over Steelers, 31-29

It's just who the Steelers are right now, it's who they were in 2007: they've got a lot of talent, but not much beyond that. This is a team with it's head on sideways. It's almost impossible to target something they do consistently well, especially on offense. They run the ball a lot, but not especially well. Roethlisberger had a good season statistically, but don't you get the impression he gets by mostly on being physically superior to everyone around him? He holds on to the ball way too long, he trusts his arm too much, he doesn't know when to let a bad play die, and he kills his team by taking bad sacks and throwing bad picks. They're sort of a hit-or-miss offense. It's funny, because sometimes they look so great, but even when they do, it kinda looks clunky and lacks precision. More than any team in football, the Steelers must be in rhythm and playing with confidence: when they are, they have so much talent they simply overwhelm teams. When they aren't it can be ugly and a little embarrassing, like a pick-up basketball game with you and your friends where you get schooled by a bunch of nerds because everyone on your team is trying to pull elaborate cross-over moves and toss alley-oops, while the other team outruns you and has that one beefy guy that is automatic in the paint.

As for the Jaguars, this game was closer than it should have been. They were up 21-10 with numerous opportunities to close the door, but they let Pittsburgh hang around and then come back. But it was a huge win for them, and they belong in the divisional round. To be perfectly honest, I think they want the Patriots Saturday night. I know that sounds crazy, but look: they'd have to face 'em one way or another, and of all the AFC playoff teams, they and the Titans were the only ones that hadn't already lost to the Pats. If I'm on the Jags, I think I'm catching the Patriots at the right time, and I'm eager for the chance to either a) take down the big dogs by just punishing them physically, which the Jags can do, or b) lose like a man to the best team in football. If you're gonna get bounced in the playoffs, the only way to go is to the best goddamn team in the league. New England has been off for two weeks, they looked shaky in the last third of the regular season, and let's face it: they haven't gone against a team as big, strong, tough, and physically superior as the Jaguars this year. Frankly, I think they're excited about going up to New England and mixing it up in the snow with the annointed ones. Go Jaguars!

Giants over Bucs, 24-14

If I'm the owner of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I'm elbow-deep up Jon Gruden's ass today. What a huge, huge disappointment. In fact, what a total embarrassment the NFC South is. It's not enough that their marquee team is in the toilet after the franchise quarterback is arrested and convicted of several felonies; it's not enough that last season's division champ came out and sucked hard, making the NFL's annointed super-dooper star tailback an after-thought; it's not enough that the Panthers are one of the NFL's forgotten teams, a total disaster from top to bottom; but the 2007 division champs ended their season on a three game losing streak after their coach proved the depth of his arrogance by electing to take the last two regular season games off and got punished, at home, by the goddamn New York Giants. The Bucs were no better than a wild-card team, and they got treated like one. I wish this game had been in New York so the Giants could have won by 30. What a joke. I can't tell you how disgusted I am that the Bucs were even in the playoffs, now that they got de-pantsed at home by a shit-ass Eli Manning-led, Tom Coughlin coached Giants team KNOWN for sucking in important games. That's what you get for cramming your head up your ass and thinking you can saunter into the playoffs backwards and turn the switch on. Good riddance.

As for the Giants, they'll need an even better performance from Eli and the defense in Dallas, and I'm not sure they're up to it. They had such a look of satisfaction on their faces after Sunday's victory, I think they're ready to pack it up and catch the Conference Championships from the comfort of their own recliners. Hey, they took care of business in the wild-card round, good for them. That's what happens when you play out the stretch, even the meaningless ones. You come in ready to play.

Chargers over Titans, 17-6

It should be mentioned here that I picked this one to go 17-13 Chargers. Would it have been too much to ask for Rod Bironas to boot a couple of field goals down the stretch? Look, the Titans were never going to win this game. Under no circumstance would I expect this Jeff Fisher-coached Titans team to come in unprepared or lifeless, but they have shit for offensive talent and weren't just the worst team in the playoffs, they were the worst team in playoff contention after week 15. Vince Young is right, though: a playoff game is good experience, and the playoff chase is good practice. The Chargers have guys who can really change a game, guys like Antonio Gates and Ladainian Tomlinson, even Chris Chambers. They've got guys on defense who can change a game. The Titans have a fantastic defensive tackle, and then everyone else. Nobody on their offense is at the point that they can take over a game or carry their team. Vince Young'll get there, but he's not there yet.

The Chargers now get the Indianapolis Colts in Indy. They'll lose. They, too, have the look of satisfaction. I think they'll be hungrier than the Giants, but Indianapolis is a lot better and more professional than the Cowboys, and they'll take care of business at home. Payton Manning won't have the suck-fest he had in San Diego, and even if he plays poorly, the Indy defense is too much for San Diego. I feel like they're spent, they won't have much to throw at the Colts. Still, I'm happy for Norv that he got a playoff win. That's what he was brought in to do, get them a playoff win they couldn't get under Marty. Granted, it wasn't supposed to be a wild-card round win, but still . . .

Now for the picks:

Seattle @ Green Bay

Seattle is a good team. More than anything, they've got a lot of speed on both sides of the ball and are sturdy up front. They can't run the ball and they don't respond well to adversity. They're fragile and are easily out-schemed. I don't like them and their regular season schedule was a joke. Green Bay, on the other hand, played a full slate of tough games, has Brett Favre, does a brilliant job scheming, and seems to enjoy the game. They have a great crowd and have had a few weeks to get ready. I'm hoping they'll win, and I'm pickin' 'em.
Packers over Seahawks, 31-24

Jacksonville @ New England

The Pats are the smartest team in football. They rarely turn the ball over, they rarely call a bad play, and they generally execute to perfection. Guys like Randy Moss and Wes Welker can single-handedly change a game. Defensively, execution is the key: outside the front line, nobody on New England's defense can reliably win individual match-ups. Jacksonville is the toughest team in football. They rarely turn the ball over, and generally are able to punish and push around their opponents. This will be a battle between one team that out-thinks their opponents and one team that overpowers opponents. What happens if the wind kicks up in New England? Wait, before I go down that road, how will the Patriots consistently keep the Jaguars off the field? The Pats aren't a great run defense. For most of the season, their opponents have had to abandon the run when they fell way behind. Jacksonville's defense is pretty great, I don't know, I could see the Jags taking this game. Bill Belichick will no doubt have an excellent scheme for the Jags, but his operating philosophy is this: take away what your opponent does best offensively. I say, if you're an opponent of the Patriots, you have to find a way to do what you do best even better than you did it before. If you fall into the trap of trying to do something else and simply give up on what you do best, you've already given the Patriots the upper hand. So the Jaguars have to run the ball and they have to run the ball effectively. They also have to eliminate early turnovers, a factor the Patriots have used to upset opponents all season. If I'm the Jaguars, I put everything into the ground game. I'm giving the ball to MJD, to Fred Taylor, I'm calling quarterback draws and bootlegs, I'm handing the ball off to the full-back, I'll even trot Del Rio out there and hand him the ball. Psychologically, you can't afford to let the Patriots take you away from your strengths, but you also can deal the Pats a blow if you show them that they can't stop you from doing what you do best. Defensively, it all comes down to whether or not the Jags can get in Brady's face. Their defensive line is massive and disruptive, if they can muscle their way in an put a few shots on this cat, who knows?

Ok, having said all that, I'm taking the Pats. Just know that a) I said the Jags could win, and b) I'll be pulling for Jack Del Rio's team for the second week in a row.
Patriots over J . . . no, fuck that.
Jaguars over Patriots, 34-30

BLAM!

San Diego @ Indianapolis

The Colts win this one pretty easily. They're rested and prepared, plus they have big expectations. The Chargers have done what they wanted to do, which was win a playoff game. They looked ugly doing it, now they get the NFL's third ranked defense. I make it sound easy! I'm also ready to stop writing now.
Colts over Chargers, 28-17

New York Giants @ Dallas

I think I might actually root for the Cowboys. Either way, it'll be one of the first times in memory that I root for either of these teams. Well, in the case of the Giants, I rooted for them against the Pats. You know what? When it comes down to it, there's no way I can root for celebrity boy in Dallas. Go Giants! In fact . . . GOOOOOO GIANTS!!!! T.O. is hobbled: that's bad news for the Boyz. Romo and Phillips are shitting themselves over that one. Both know how much their success has relied on T.O. winning individual match-ups and both know that the entire NFL is now aware of it. The Dallas defense is good but over-rated. Home field will mean a lot in this one, but if T.O. doesn't play and Romo starts spending a little extra time dancing in the pocket, they're D-U-N. If the Giants come in full speed and actually play to win, this could be a game. If the Giants actually did satisfy themselves with a wild-card win, they'll get trounced and it'll be over by the end of the third. I'm picking the Cowboys, I'm rooting for the Giants.
Cowboys over Giants, 31-21

That's it for now. I'll give a recap after this weekend and then conference championship picks. I may pop in with a news item or two beforehand. We'll see.

Sunday Picks and Saturday Recap

Chargers 17-13
Bucs 20-14

Let's get that out of the way before the games start. I'll come back and explain in a bit.