Week 6 Picks

Okay, I really like week 6. I love these match-ups. Most of them are easy calls for the home team, but there are a couple of really funny match-ups that should be totally one-sided annihilations, of the humorous variety. For instance, Detroit at Minnesota, or St. Louis at Washington, or the Giants at Cleveland. Those look funny on paper. It's a shame Kansas City isn't up this weekend: wouldn't it be really funny to see them on the road in Minnesota or New York?

Now the picks:

Chicago @ Atlanta
The Line: Chicago by 2.5
Honestly, I like Atlanta. I can't figure out how Chicago gets 2.5 points over Atlanta when Atlanta is 2-0 at home and coming off a road win over the team that won Chicago's division last season. Anyway, Chicago has the better defense, but I liked what I saw from Michael Turner last week, I like Roddy White, and I don't like the chances that Kyle Orton puts up consecutive strong performances on the road. Unbelievably, I'm picking Atlanta to be 4-2 after week 6. You have to like this match-up, also. Two kinda upstart teams, both playing really well at the moment, both pretty young and feisty. I'd love to watch this one.
Falcons over Bears, 20-17

Miami @ Houston
The Line: Houston by 3
Hey, this looks like another compelling match-up. Yes, I understand these are two of the AFC's doormat teams in 2008, but both have looked damn competitive in their last two games, and I'm eager to see Houston's offense and Miami's offense duke it out in front of a desperate Texans home crowd. I do think Houston probably edges Miami out in this one, only because they've been the better team in both of their last two games against pretty stiff competition, and they've got the home field. I could see this being a very high-scoring affair, as I don't think either team has a very strong defense and these teams won't be very familiar with one another. Houston wins this game if they stay in rhythm from beginning to end and utilize the athleticism of their front seven to neutralize the Wildcat offense. Miami wins if they don't turn the ball over, pressure Matt Schaub, and get another fluky Houston collapse down the stretch. Meh. I like the Texans in this one.
Texans over Dolphins, 34-28

Baltimore @ Indianapolis
The Line: Indianapolis by 4.5
If the Colts lose this game, they're done. Like everyone else, I'm still waiting for the Indy offense to explode on somebody. Baltimore's stingy defense isn't an ideal candidate, but I can't yet put to rest this expectation that the Colts are among the best, sharpest, most professional offenses in the league, and if that's the case, they should be able to handle business at home. Here's what I can guarantee: the Indy crowd will not have patience for another putrid 3 quarters of sloppy football, and if the Colts go into the fourth quarter in the hole, they'll hear it from their fans. I don't think they'll let that happen, I really don't. I don't like the Ravens in an out-of-division road game, and that, matched with my lingering hopes for the 2008 Colts, makes me think this one won't be close by halftime. I hope I'm right!
Colts over Ravens, 27-16

Detroit @ Minnesota
The Line: Minnesota by 13.5
Oh man, this one looks like a laugher. Imagine Detroit's dreadful defense trying to stop the runaway locamotive that is Adrian Peterson. If Peterson and Chester Taylor don't combine for 40 carries, at least, in this game, Brad Childress is a buffoon who should be fired immediately. There's at least a slim hope that Minnesota's two talented ball-carriers will each reach the 200 yard mark in this game, right? Please, let it be so. I see this as a total mugging, a one-sided steamrolling from beginning to end. The only hope for the Lions is that they get the ball first, score a quick touchdown, get a stop on the first possession, and score again. I don't see Brad Childress as the kind of guy that will stick to the ground game with his team down two scores at home. I really don't, especially against a team with firepower in the receiving corps like the Lions have. Will that happen? Shit no! By the fourth quarter, Minnesota fans will be able to pay a nickel to run out on the field and rack up 50 yards and a rushing touchdown. Seriously, this could be one of those very special Adrian Peterson shows, a real must-see event.
Vikings over Lions, 42-20

Oakland @ New Orleans
The Line: New Orleans by 8
How do you know what to expect from the Raiders? I mean, if Lane Kiffin were coaching this team and had the whole two-week runup to prepare for the Saints, he'd come out with Michael Bush and Darren McFadden, run between the tackles 45 times, throw a handful of playaction passes, and expect his Raiders to steamroll the Saints and dominate time of possession. With Tom Cable? As the new head coach, trying to impress the disease they call an owner, in his first game in charge? Who knows? Does he follow the Kiffin blue-print, the one that had Kiffin out of favor with Davis in the first place? Or does he show what a company man he is by going to the throw-long Raiders offense? At any rate, does it really matter? These Raiders can't possibly care much anymore, I think they all know they're playing for a lunatic, the season is going nowhere, and their performance on the field will have little if anything to do with how they're treated by the franchise. I expect a demoralized Raiders team to show up flat, go down by a lot early, and wind up losing a laugher, after which somebody in Raider land will find a way to blame Kiffin.
Saints over Raiders, 38-21

Cincinnati @ New York Jets
The Line: New York Jets by 6
Another game I don't really know how to call. I mean, I expect the Jets to win because they're at home and they're the better team, but will they perform well? Who knows. I'm sure they stink. At any rate, I guess it'll go something like this: Cincinnati won't be all the way up the way they were for Dallas or New York. They'll have some modest offensive success. Brett Favre will throw at least one ugly interception. Thomas Jones will get going a little bit in the middle quarters. Favre will hit a deep ball or two just when the Bengals start to show a little fight, and they'll go down like Glass Joe. It won't be fun to watch, it won't be beautiful or rhythmic or even ugly in that sort of charming, old school way. It'll be a depressing mess in which one fraud gets by at the expense of another.
Jets over Bengals, 23-17

Carolina @ Tampa Bay
The Line: Tampa Bay by 1.5
Hey, here's one road team I feel okay picking this week. They'll probably lose, but can I really pick the Bucs? If they win, I won't be sure why. Okay, well, nevermind, if they win, it'll be because they stuff the run, force the Panthers to dink and dunk up the field, put a few hits on Jake Delhomme, and win the turnover battle. That could definitely happen. It'll all be on their defense. And Tampa's defense has been very game so far this season. I think for now, though, I'm going to ride the Panthers for a week. I liked their demolition of the Chiefs a week before a big road divisional contest, it shows me they aren't looking ahead. I like that they have a deep-ish backfield and can afford to stick with the run even if it isn't churning out a whole lot. I like that Mushin Muhammed is a veteran guy who can find holes in a cover-2, and I like that Steve Smith is maybe the only receiver in the land who can run fast enough to get deep on a committed cover-2 look, as he's done against the Bears in the past. Mostly, I thought Tampa looked like coarse-ground dog-shit on offense against the beyond-atrocious Denver defense on Sunday, and Carolina looks like they have a pretty mean unit over there. Carolina has been a pretty decent road team these past few years, and they've got some momentum. Dammit, I'm takin' 'em.
Panthers over Bucs, 19-9

St. Louis @ Washington
The Line: Washinton by 13.5
First, I have to say this: this game scares me quite a bit. St. Louis is terrible, but as recently as last season, with essentially the exact same key players on offense, I was actually picking St. Louis to bust out and have huge offensive games. Now they don't have Scott Linehan's corpse dragging the whole ship down. The Redskins are coming off of two enormous road wins in their division against big-league opposition, now they get to go home to a grateful home crowd and play host to one of the NFL's true trainwrecks. The Rams are coming off of their bye week, they've reinstalled Marc Bulger at quarterback, and Al Saunders is playing against his old team and a defense he more or less played against every day in practice for a year. I'm not kidding, this game really scares me. I'm really, really afraid of what might happen.
But I can't go down that road. In the past two weeks, Clinton Portis has gone for about 280 yards against two of the NFL's tougher defensive fronts. Against much stiffer opposition, Jason Campbell has both protected the ball and connected on just about every big shot he's taken. And most importantly, I don't think Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell are the kinds of guys who take their eyes of the ball under any circumstances. I think they're both every bit as afraid of this game as I am.
Beyond all that, I think Al Saunders playbook is a bunch of garbage, and the only way the Rams can win this game is if they just man up and stick it to the Redskins in the trenches. They won't out-scheme the Skins in a million years, not while they're still trying to digest that Al Saunders playbook, not with a new head coach, not with a horrid defense and a butter-soft roster. Are the Rams the kind of team that goes on the road at 0-4 and just beats up a team as professional as the Redskins? I say no. I say the Redskins own time of possession in this game, to the tune of something like 38-22. I say the offense breaks all the way out and hangs 30 on the board. I say the defense actually gets to a quarterback for a change. And I say for the third week in a row, the Redskins hold an opposing Pro Bowl runningback to 60 yards or less. And I like that 13.5 point margin, dammit.
Redskins over Rams, 31-16

Jacksonville @ Denver
The Line: Denver by 3.5
Here, again, I'm taking a road team. This is more of a gut feeling, although certainly there's reason to expect the Jaguars to steamroll Denver's run defense and keep Jay Cutler on the bench. On the other hand, who is to say Cutler and Denver's prolific passing attack won't light up Jacksonville's secondary for another 30+ point showing? Frankly, I'm insulted these mother-loving Broncos have the same win-loss record as the Redskins. They're coming back to earth, you hear me? Besides, isn't Jacksonville pretty clearly the better team here? I know Denver is a difficult place to visit, but I've got to think Jacksonville takes care of business in a game of this magnitude. They dropped a vital home contest in week 5, can they afford to get dumped by a team they should so easily be able to slice up with the running game? God damn it! I'm taking the Jaguars!
Jaguars over Broncos, 28-27

Dallas @ Arizona
The Line: Dallas by 5
Look, dammit, I'm picking Arizona. Dallas has looked like shit for two weeks and they're wearing their insecurities on their sleeves. Arizona is a damn fine home team, this is a statement game, and Kurt Warner has been a big-game quarterback in his career. Believe me, the importance of this game will not be lost on the Cardinals. And beyond that, they'll have the power of me rooting desperately for them. Arizona can show the world they can play with anybody if they take care of business at home and stifle these annoying Cowboy bastards. How will they do it? To be honest, I'm not sure.
I suppose Dallas's secondary is suspect. I mean, we knew that already. And Arizona has one hell of a passing attack. Dallas hasn't been a great pass-rushing team so far this season either, so Warner might be able to avoid another collapse. Arizona is good in the red-zone and they run the ball, if not well, at least with determination. They stick with it. They can control the clock versus Dallas, and they can hit the big play. All they need to do is frustrate T.O., put a lick or two on Romo, and watch the whole Dallas tangle unravel. C'mon Cardinals, the justice-loving people of the world are depending on you to continue what Washington started 3 weeks ago: the turbulent demise of the 2008 Dallas Cowboys. Do the job!
Cardinals over Cowboys, 35-24

Philadelphia @ San Francisco
The Line: Philadelphia by 4.5
This might be the last time I pick Philly all season. They've certainly got the deck stacked in their favor. With their pass-rush, this should be a humiliating tendorizing of J.T. O'Sullivan. Philly's defense is built for exposing Mike Martz's vaunted baloney offense. San Francisco has exactly the kind of speedy, young defense that Philadelphia should be able to gash with screens and playaction from start to finish. The Eagles just need to pull their heads out of their asses and get serious about winning a football game. If they lose, not only will they be officially cooked in the NFC East - and in all likelihood, the Wild-Card race - but I will no longer be able to use them as my fall-back favorite team in the NFL. They're dangerously close to falling all the way out of my favor once and for all after their bitchy post-game performance this past weekend.
Having said all that, I will be rooting for them full strength on Sunday, and I fully expect a one-sided ass-whupping to take place. Gooooooo Eagles!
Eagles over 49ers, 31-13

Green Bay @ Seattle
The Line: Seattle by 2
This is a tough game for me to pick. I want Green Bay to win. I'm done with the Seahawks. I'm ready for the Packers to come back to life and take back the NFC North. I want the Packers in the playoffs. I'm not interested in the entire second half of the season being one long annoying conversation on Brett Favre vs. Aaron Rodgers.
On the other hand, the Seahawks are another one of these veteran teams with success not so far in their rearview mirror that they can't identify it anymore. They have a tremendous home crowd. Ultimately, if they lose this game, it will perhaps be the most significant loss of the season for any team thus far. After getting straight up gang-raped in New York on Sunday, if they can't rebound and put away a struggling, banged up Packers team at home, it won't just be the end of this season, it'll be rebuilding time in Seattle.
But how do you pick a team that just lost by 38 points? How in the hell can I pick the Seahawks, who haven't looked good at any point this season? How much better can they be at home? How much better can I expect them to be after such a loss, when said loss took place after the bye week? Or am I just trying to talk myself into picking the team I'd prefer to win the game? Shit.
Vegas says Seattle will eke out a close one, using the home crowd to just get by the Packers. Do we know who these Seahawks are yet? Are they the worst team in the NFC? Because if they drop to 1-5, they'll be in the discussion, anyway. Okay, on a neutral site, I'd expect the Packers to win by maybe 10 points. Is the Seattle home crowd worth more than 10 points? Hard to say . . . yeesh. I guess I say no, they're not.
Packers over Seahawks, 21-20

New England @ San Diego
The Line: San Diego by 6
This could be a revenge game for San Diego, who lost to the Patriots twice last season. I don't think there'll be a problem of whether or not they can get up for this game, at home against a tough competitor. You know, I do expect them to win. If they lose, it's possible I'll need them to win again before I'll pick them. As for New England, hey, this is the kind of game you're supposed to lose. If they win, I'll be ready to consider them again one of the elite teams in football. And with that, I'll go ahead and bring to a close the "Pick New England by a Landslide" era.
Chargers over Patriots, 29-23

New York Giants @ Cleveland
The Line: New York Giants by 8
There are two really funny subplots to this game: first, who in the hell is going to stop Brandon Jacobs? I think it'll be a good Sunday to have this guy on your fantasy team. Second, Derek Anderson is in deep, deep trouble, and if you're Brady Quinn, you're not ready to take over, not this week. This is not the week to be Cleveland's starting quarterback. One way or another, you're getting booed this Sunday.
As I said before, I'm hoping the Browns catch fire offensively and hang some big numbers on the Giants. I'd like the Giants to lose, I'd like them to look more human, I'd like the division race to be a tie for a bit. I suppose Cleveland has the offensive firepower to do the job. They certainly have a good offensive line. New York's secondary isn't the strength of their defense, and Cleveland has some weapons. I will be rooting for the Browns, but in a million years I wouldn't pick them to win this game, not after what New York did to another pretender offense from 2007 in week 5. Will it be that brutal? God, I hope not.
Giants over Browns, 24-13

And there you have it. I finished a piss-poor 8-6 in week 5, continuing an ugly trend from week 4 in which I pick too many road teams and pay the price. For week 6, I picked 9 home teams and 5 road teams, and 2 of my road teams were favored. I feel a bit better about this set of picks. We'll see.

Go Skynards!

Week 5 Not So Magic Results

Lets get right in there:

Titans over Ravens, 13-10
My Pick: Ravens over Titans, 16-13
Is it too much to ask that Baltimore kick a pair of field goals and make me a genius? Seriously.

Blech. What an ugly game. 21 penalties between the two teams, 4 turnovers, next to no offense whatsoever. I guess this leaves Baltimore still looking for a signature victory. Clearly, they're good enough at home to hang with some tough teams, but that might be the ceiling for them right now. I still think they're good enough defensively and just competent enough offensively to hang around in the mighty beat-up AFC North.

As for the Titans, I'm not sure this win does much for them, besides keeping them atop the AFC. They looked like real crap on the offensive end. Yes, Baltimore is a tough place to play and the Ravens have a tough defense, but the Titans barely looked competent at all. They still, still haven't beaten anybody serious in a serious game. I like the Titans, I really do, but they look like they have a "win ugly" ceiling on their success, and teams like that are never more than a major injury away from being a "lose ugly", Chicago Bears type team.

Panthers over Chiefs, 34-0
My Pick: Panthers over Chiefs, 24-16
Wow. Kansas City. My God.

What an ass-kicking. The Chiefs are grimly happy today that Seattle took such a reaming in New York on Sunday, the magnitude of that defeat overshadows this unholy blow-out. Carolina could have easily, EASILY put up 50 in this game. Restraint. Sportsmanship. Good for them.

Herm Edwards is "puzzled", "[has] no idea", why his team didn't play like last week. He can't figure out why last week's success didn't carry over into this week. He can't say what happened because he hasn't seen the tape yet. I have a theory here: Herm blacks out on gameday. He does! When it looks like he's standing there with a smirk on his face, really he's in a coma. He snaps to at the end of the game and literally has no idea why his team didn't win.

Now, on a serious note, you don't often hear a good NFL coach talking about last week's game even a day or two after it took place. I really, really don't think Herm knows what he's doing. I think he really is hoping, during the week, that his team will just carry over momentum from the previous week. I can't stress this enough: as a head coach, Herm Edwards really does believe that his job of coaching up his football team ends before the game on Sunday begins. His team comes out flat on Sunday, and he's just puzzled over there. He has no strategy for swinging a game's momentum or adjusting mid-game.

Man, I wish NFL executives would read my blog.

D'Angelo Williams was awesome in this game. I really want to tip my hat to the guy, he played a hell of a game. Williams has been dealing with the fact that his coaching staff is supplanting him, slowly but surely, with a rookie, and he's handling it like a professional. Great game for him.

Bears over Lions, 34-7
My Pick: Bears over Lions, 28-24
I guess Detroit really is this bad. At this point, they've just got to fire Rod Marinelli. It's not that I think this guy can't coach a football team, it really isn't. The Lions franchise has the stink of losing on them, in their uniforms, in their lockers. They stink. The culture has roots. Rod Marinelli was Matt Millen's guy. Millen was the most recent catalyst of the team's run of suckitude. Marinelli, despite his best efforts, is carrying the torch of sucking, losing, and not expecting much else. He's gotta go.
Hey, how about Kyle Orton! Great game for him. I know, Detroit's defense is incredibly bad, I know. Still, Orton had a nice outing, a really nice outing. Matt Forte was strong. This is a good win for Chicago, and they're now in the driver's seat of their abysmal, disappointing division.

Falcons over Packers, 27-24
My Pick: Packers over Falcons, 31-17
I said the Packers needed a big, dominating home win. Instead, they absorbed an incredibly discouraging third loss in a row. They're in trouble, there's no two ways about it. For three straight weeks, their defense has looked poor, this time to a Falcons team that had managed only 18 points in their first two road games combined. Not good, Packers. Not good at all. Now they go to Seattle, then host the Colts before their bye. Seattle may be garbage, but they're tough at home. The Colts are 2-0 on the road this season. There's a strong, strong chance the Packers could be 2-5 headed into their bye week. They can already forget about a wild-card if they don't win the North. And they needed this game.
Hey, it turns out the Falcons are actually a pretty decent team! Winning at home over the Lions and Chiefs, that ain't much. But a road win in Green Bay, even over a banged-up, reeling Packers squad, is a quality win, a serious accomplishment for such a young team. They're hosting Chicago before the bye: they could be 4-2 heading into Philadelphia in week 8, and I think we can forget about calling Philly an especially tough home team. Wow, what a turnaround! Mike Smith is a serious contender for Coach of the Year. Great job.

Colts over Texans, 31-27
My Pick: Colts over Texans, 37-28
Not a great win for the Colts. Actually, a fluke win, a garbage win that doesn't count. Not a comeback. Not worth a damn. This win was perhaps more troubling than their loss to Jacksonville or their loss to Chicago. Indy needed a full-blown brain-melt by Sage Rosenfels, who played perhaps the most embarrassingly bad fourth quarter in eons, to squeek out this win. Indy didn't deserve the victory by any stretch of the imagination.
And Houston! Saaaaaaaage! My God. Seriously, somebody check Sage's bank account today for any hefty deposits made from banks in Indiana. Wow, implosion doesn't even address this guy's collapse. He'll never, NEVER live this down. If Madden had a "choke" rating, Rosenfels would register in the negative.
And you have to be troubled by Matt Schaub's absence from this one. Yeah, I get it, he spent the night before the game in the hospital. I feel bad for the guy, that really sucks. But if he was healthy enough to be second on the depth chart, then he was healthy enough to go. Payton Manning hasn't missed a game in like 20 years. Brett Favre played the entire 20th century without missing a game, from beginning to end. Matt Schaub ate a bad oyster, crapped his Fruit-of-the-Looms, and misses his team's biggest game of the season. For shame.
On the bright side, this was a second AFC South showdown in a row that was enormously entertaining. This is what we wanted from the South. The Texans are at least good for a fun watch, and that could make them a valuable spoiler view down the stretch.

Dolphins over Chargers, 17-10
My Pick: Chargers over Dolphins, 24-13

"San Diego will definitely show up flat here. Didn't Norv Turner do a stint in Miami once? I'm not sure that matters, but it occured to me just now. Anyway, back to my point: San Diego will definitely sleepwalk through at least the first quarter. There's a very real possibility that Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will go completely nuts against San Diego's bullshit defense, and if that happens, the Dolphins could very well win the game. I can't pick it that way, but it could happen. Funny how regular guys like me recognize the overall phony-ness of this Chargers team, but the sports media at large is still slobbering all over their junk. Still, San Diego probably pulls this one out. They've got a lot more talent than the Dolphins. I could see Miami winning. I could even see picking Miami. But I'm not in the mood, and this Dolphins team is not the kind of team I'm willing to go out on a limb for, even at home."

That's what I said, right before I picked the Chargers. Boooooooo.
The Chargers aren't in trouble. No, they're not. The Chargers aren't in trouble the same way the Chiefs aren't in trouble, the Rams aren't in trouble, the Lions aren't in trouble, the Bengals aren't in trouble. Why? Because the Chargers are crap, straight up. The fact that they've got a couple big names and can put up a flashy offensive performance once in a while doesn't change a thing. They stink. Boo on the Chargers. The funny thing is watching and listening to the national sports media try to duck and avoid making an honest assessment of this team, because everybody picked them to win it all. As recently as Saturday, every bitch-ass piece of crap on ESPN.com had San Diego in the AFC Championship at least. If that holds up, it will only be because the AFC is a terrible, terrible conference with a bunch of pretenders that will allow a soft-ass San Diego team coached by Norv Turner to fight through the playoffs. The Chargers have lost to the Panthers at home, the Broncos on the road, and the God-awful Dolphins on the road. They barely beat the Raiders on the road and put up a big number on the atrocious Jets. Congratulations, frauds. The Chargers are garbage!

Giants over Seahawks, 44-6
My Pick: Giants over Seahawks, 27-20
44-6? Really? Still feeling disrespected by East Coast fans and the national media, Seattle fans? That Seahawks team is really, really bad. Know what else? Matt Hasselbeck is garbage!
That loud gulping sound you hear isn't Seahawks fans. First of all, they're so far away, you'd never actually hear it, not unless you were on the phone with a Seattle fan. No, the loud gulping sound in your ear is actually me. I don't like these Giants. Not only are they the best team in the NFL, they're like . . . WAAAAAAAAAAAY the best team in the NFL. I'm not happy that they play in the NFC East, not at all. They made mince-meat out of the Seahawks. Hell, this game actually wasn't even as close as the final score! What a destruction!
Brandon Jacobs is a monster, it's time we all cop to it. He's a monster. I'm terrified of Brandon Jacobs. If I saw him jogging towards me on the path behind my home, I'd dive into the woods. And just go on NFL.com and watch the highlights of this game so you can gawk at that sick, sick run by Ahmad Bradshaw. He put moves on top of moves. It helps that Seattle's defenders couldn't wrap up a burrito, much less an NFL runningback, but damn. That was maybe my favorite non-touchdown run of all time. In fact, I'm going to go watch it again right now! If I'd had that run in Madden 8 weeks ago, I'd still be replaying it every day, making my wife watch it even when she serves me divorce papers.
Imagine, for a second, if Plaxico Burress had played in this game. If you don't think the Giants would have hung 60 on Seattle, you aren't paying enough attention.

Redskins over Eagles, 23-17
My Pick: Redskins over Eagles, 31-23
Sadly, it turns out the Eagles really aren't that good at all. At all. It's a shame.
First of all, don't let the final score deceive you: the Eagles offense scored 10 point in the game, and they were dreadful. Even without anything even like a consistent pass-rush from the Redskins defense, they were able to easily handle the Eagles anemic, one-dimensional, herky-jerky offense. Brian Westbrook is an electric player, Donovan McNabb is a very good quarterback, and Deshawn (I've stopped caring whether I spell any name with "Sean", "Shaun", or "Shawn" correctly) Jackson is very dangerous, but that's not a good offense. Like Denver or San Diego, it can put up some big numbers, but it's a one trick pony, and once you know the trick, it turns into a donkey.
As for the Redskins, hey, they won the game without a single catch from Santana Moss, with Antwan Randle-El dropping passes left and right, and with only modest contributions from the rest of the receiving corps. The won without Jason Campbell controlling the flow of the game. They won, for the second road game in a row, without registering a single sack, nor even any consistent pressure at all. They won without forcing a turnover. They won without playing very well on special teams, except the field-goal unit. They won without starting well. They won without hitting any huge plays. As you might predict in an NFC East contest, they won because they easily dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
I'm a little torn right now on the Eagles. On the one hand, I've always fallen back on the Eagles as my stand-in favorite team in the NFL. I've always been a Donovan McNabb fan and defender. I have a very bittersweet admiration for Brian Westbrook, as a DC native now playing for a rival team and a guy who historically gashes Washington's defense to hell. I've liked Andy Reid since the Deuce Staley days. I've always been a big Brian Dawkins fan, and I've long thought Jim Johnson might be the only coordinator in the NFL who might be referred to as a weapon. Still, I'm troubled by this team.
First, why aren't the Eagles better and more consistent than they are? Why is it they can dial up a beautiful first drive where they effortlessly move down the field and score, and then disappear for the entire rest of the game? Why do they put up huge numbers against bottom feeders and in losing efforts but almost never show up in games they expect to win against competent teams? If you're an Eagles fan, you've probably called for Andy Reid's head before. Well, for the first time ever, I kinda see your point. I'm willing to consent that something ain't right at the coaching level. The Eagles aren't as good as they should be. Losing to the Redskins is one thing. Losing to the Redskins at home a week after a disappointing road loss in Chicago is quite another.
Second, and I really don't want anybody to think I've turned on the guy, but what the hell is Donovan McNabb talking about? Embarrassed, are you? Understandable, because you played like crap and got dominated. But show a little class, buddy. Seriously, the only time the better team loses is when the referee steals the game, the other team cheats, or injuries are a major factor. I can't remember the last time a professional football player actually insisted his team was superior after losing at home. The Eagles are 2-3 in the NFC East, the Redskins are 4-1 and have played a much more difficult schedule. How in the world can this guy say, with a straight face, that his team is better? By what measure? Because you've got some flashy guys on your team? Because you strut around like you've already won the game before it even started? News-flash, fuck-face: the Redskins made the playoffs in 2007 with perhaps the most injured roster in the NFL, while your "superior" Eagles finished 8-8. The Redskins just beat you at home. They have the better record. You're below .500. Shut up, asshole, stop embarrassing yourself, stop diminishing your credibility, stop making your team look like bad sportsmen. You lost to a 3-2 Bears team and a 4-1 Washington team. You're not better than either squad. You're a sub-.500 piece of floundering crap.
Third, I kinda resent the Eagles for diminishing the overall luster of the NFC East. Had they taken care of business in Chicago, the East would still be able to say they're undefeated outside the division. Instead, we've got a grumpy, underachieving, sub-.500 Philly squad dragging us down. They need to start handling their end of things immediately. I'm a big Redskins homer, I want them in the playoffs, the Super Bowl, the Pro Bowl, the whole deal, but I'm willing to put that at risk for the sake of having an NFC East that, top to bottom, averages 12 wins a team.

Broncos over Bucs, 16-13
My Pick: Bucs over Broncos, 28-27
Gross. Don't care. Don't care at all.

Cardinals over Bills, 41-17
My Pick: Cardinals over Bills, 30-24
Told y'all!
Hey, you know what? It turns out both teams are only pretty good, but not especially good. I guess we all really knew that. The Bills are a professional team, I've said it a hundred times. They're sharp. They hustle. I dig that. But they're not 5-0 good. They're not really even 4-1 good. I won't begrudge them their 4-1 start, though. I'm genuinely rooting for these guys. The Bills are long overdue for some good fortune, and they've finally gotten some.
As for the Cardinals, look: you can't be a legit contender, even in the AFC West, if you can't win a game on the road. It's just embarrassing. Arizona is 3-9 since the start of 2007 on the road. At some point, you're not just a bad road team, you're just a crappy, unprofessional sideshow. Putting up 41 points in a very sharp outing against a decent-enough 4-0 Bills team is great, but if Arizona can't start to put together some road wins, they'll be just another soft-ass sideshow AFC West team that can't even hope to make a dent in the post-season, where there will be no avoiding those NFC East berzerkers. Put plainly, if you want a hope of winning a post-season game in the NFC this season, you desperately need a home game, and the only way to get a home game will be to win 12 games at least. In the NFC West, playing 6 games against the 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks, that's within reach if you can just muster up consistently professional performances on the road against out-of-division opponents. Since nobody in the NFC West can do that, you can pretty much write that whole division off for yet another year. Sorry!
I'm not trying to diminish this victory for the Cardinals. With one of their best overall players out with a significant injury, they hung a big number on a quality team. Kurt Warner was magnificent. The red-zone offense was strong, and Arizona's defense was very strong in the pass-rush and against the run. They knocked Trent Edwards out of the game and harassed J.P. Losman into 3 turnovers. They played well. But the drop off between this performance and their last two road games is huge, and that won't do.

Cowboys over Bengals, 31-22
My Pick: Cowboys over Bengals, 34-17
Yeah. Mmmm-hmmmmmm. That's the best team in football, barely squeezing by the dreadful Bengals, at home, when you're totally healthy, top to bottom, coming off a disappointing loss in the division. Puh-lease. Forget about the Cowboys. They're soft, bitchy, and dysfunctional. They came damn close to losing this game. Is that how you respond to having your dicks sliced off by a division opponent in your own house? By going out and yawning through the second half against a bottom-feeder, barely walking away with an ugly, choppy win? Sure, you're contenders. Riiiiiight.
As for the Bengals, know what? I'm boosting them in my rankings. They've played two NFC East opponents pretty damn tough on the road, and that's something. They may not win a game all year, but they can at least be counted upon to show up against some tough teams. Good for them. I mean it.

Patriots over 49ers, 30-21
My Pick: Patriots over 49ers by a million billion points
I'll still be picking their games this way for a while. If you're paying attention, you might have noticed the Patriots are 3-1. They may look pretty terrible, but they're doing enough to win (for the most part). They're keeping pace in the AFC East, and I have to think they'll develop a little rhythm as the season progresses. I still like them to compete for the division.
Now, as for the 49ers, what'll it take for Mike Nolan to get fired? I'm not saying he's there yet, but what will it take? If they lose at home next week against Philly, is he gone? If they follow it up with a road annihilation in New York, in what should be the end of J.T. O'Sullivan's life and one of the all-time most brutal games in NFL history, is Nolan done? No, probably his fate would be sealed if they then lose a vital home game to the Seattle Seahawks in week 8, headed into their bye week. But I want to get back to that Giants game . . . is that the absolute perfect storm of unstoppable pass-rush versus unbelievably bad pass-protection? Wow, that matchup is so one-sided, I might call out of work just to watch it go down. If you're a Giants fan, can you already smell the blood in the air? Are you salivating? Don't you just imagine this game ending with a bunch of heaving Giants defenders bending over J.T. O'Sullivan's fresh corpse, blood shooting out in all directions, their faces smeared with gore, snarling and snapping at eachother as they chow down on his limbs? I'm not kidding, I have visions of "the feast" in Night of the Living Dead when I think ahead to this match-up. Will they throw the odd bone or gristle into the frenzied crowd?

Steelers over Jaguars, 26-21
My Pick: Jaguars over Steelers, 20-14
Great, great game from Ben Roethlisberger. If nothing else, this guy's got guts. Big time guts. This was a hard-fought road victory by a team that seriously needed to get a statement under their belts. What better way to get it than by going on the road to the team that bounced you from the playoffs in 2007 and solidly outperforming them on both sides of the ball? Really nice win.
Continuing a thread from last week, Maurice Jones-Drew has had 12 total carries in the last two games. What gives? I think I'm noticing a disconcerting trend in Jacksonville games over the last two seasons. In big games, they quit almost immediately on whatever part of the game they're expected to struggle in. They have this amatuerish habit of "surprising" teams by coming out passing, when we all know they're a strong run-first offense. Seriously, really, Jack Del Rio has to get away from this. They can't live this way. They've got an outstanding backfield, a conservative, athletic quarterback, a tough defense, and a big offensive line that does a better job paving the ground game than in pass-protection. That's their identity. So why run the ball only 19 times Sunday night? Yes, the Steelers can defend the run with the best of them. Still, the Redskins went into Philadelphia and rang up 206 rushing yards on 40 carries against the NFL's best run defense. If it can work for the Skins on the road, it can work for the Jaguars at home. It just can.
But let's not take anything away from what was basically Ben Roethlisberger winning a football game for his team. Big-time numbers: 26 of 41 for 309 yards and 3 scores. Though the Jaguars are known first for their run defense, they're one of the tougher teams in the league to pass on and Rashean Mathis is one of the best big-play corners in the league, as he showed on a 76 yards pick-six in this one. And it wasn't like Pittsburgh's pass-protection was much improved Sunday night, either: Roethlisberger was sacked three times and did a lot of moving in the pocket to keep that number where it ended up. The guy played a great game, hopefully the Steelers can keep it up going forward. I won't bet on it.

Vikings over Saints, 30-27
My Pick: Saints over Vikings, 27-21
Lots of story lines from this game: Drew Brees throws two picks and drops 3 fumbles; Reggie Bush had a good chance of scoring on a third punt return on the night; the Saints had 11 penalties in the game; the Vikings won a game in which Adrian Peterson averaged fewer than 2 yards a carry; Martin Gramatica, sorry to say, cost the Saints another game; Gus Frerotte's gutsy performance; Antoine Winfield playing the game of his life; but here's my favorite: this was the first game in NFL history that had a combination of a blocked field goal, a TD pass by a non-quarterback (Chester Taylor, who threw an effing perfect lob at the goal-line), two field goals from beyond 50 yards and two punt return TDs. First of all, whatever schmuk at NFL headquarters or the Elias Sports Bureau sat up all night looking that crap up deserves either a raise, or a straight jacket, or maybe both. Second of all, how likely is it that feat will ever be repeated? Why not throw in another stat to make it all the more impossible, like one team having a +4 turnover margin on the night, or that the game was played in a dome, or that there was, I don't know, a clown in attendance? Spice up that stat a little more, dammit!
There's no doubt Drew Brees can sling the ball around with the best of 'em, and you have to love the fact that this guy leads the team in their little pre-game, sideline team-dance "get pumped" routine. As much as I want to say Brees is a great player, I really don't see it that way. First of all, his team underperforms, and in a strict interpretation of NFL lore, ultimately it comes back to Brees as the team's leader. Second of all, he doesn't handle pocket pressure very well. Third, and this is more cosmetic, I can't stand the look on his face during the game, especially when things aren't going well. This is the most underrated face in sports. If Brees had Payton Manning's profile, we'd all be talking about the Brees face. Check it out sometime. The guy played a nice game, and he only lost one of those fumbles, but he accounted for 3 of his team's 4 turnovers on the night, and they lost a crucial home game to fall to the bottom of their division, behind the Atlanta Falcons.
I think I can safely say returning punts is Reggie Bush's true calling in football. No disrespect to Devin Hester, but Bush was as electric as any punt returner I've ever seen last night, and he came within a feisty Saints logo at midfield of returning three punts for touchdowns last night. For the record, Reggie has 3 punt return touchdowns in 5 games this season. Incredible stuff. Of course, he didn't help his overall profile by putting the ball on the ground twice in this game and losing one of them, but still. Damn this guy can fly around in space. If I'm coaching the Saints, I'm really considering scrapping the whole runningback experiment with Reggie and lining him up at receiver and punt returner from now on. The light still hasn't gone on regarding running between the tackles, and it's been damn near long enough.
11 penalties? 11? Really? Including a 45 yard pass interference in the last 30 seconds of the game? Talk about pissing a game down the toilet. Ouch.
If you're a Vikings fan, this is ultimately the real joy of having Adrian Peterson on your roster. The guy rushes for less than 2 yards a carry, but the opponent is so overextended to stop the guy, the whole secondary is left wide open for bomb after bomb. Even on that final pass interference call, there's no way Bernard Berrian should be basically racing a corner and a safety deep down the middle of the field with only a few seconds left on the clock. Even in the final moments of the game, the Saints were so worried about Adrian Peterson ripping their hearts out they went ahead and let Gus Frerotte and Bernard Berrian do it instead. And the beautiful thing was that Brad Childress stuck with the run, even though it wasn't churning out a damn thing, just to encourage the Saints to stay up on the line. Now Peterson will make up for it by going completely ape-shit at home against Detroit next Sunday, in what should be a bloodbath.
Martin Gramatica . . . yikes. Not clutch. Not clutch at all. If he makes that field goal, the Saints kick the ball to the Vikings with about a minute on the clock and have a very real chance of holding them out of field goal range. When he missed it, he gave the Vikings the ball near midfield, and the rest was history. Twice this season he's killed the Saints. They'd be 4-1 if this guy could make a late field goal.
It's not good to see Gus Frerotte take a brutal pounding, but it is good to see him tough it out and play like a gutsy veteran for four quarters of a crucial road game.
Antoine Winfield! Wow! A blocked field goal return for a touchdown, a sack, forced fumble, and fumble recovery all on one play, 8 tackles, including a number that came in the backfield, and he basically kept Robert Meachem and Lance Moore totally in check for most of the game. What a day for this guy. You know, every year or so I totally forget Winfield is still in the league, and then he pops up and hangs a game like this on somebody. Minnesota's pass defense still needs some work, but Winfield is clearly still capable of being a piece of a great secondary.
Hey, this was an enormously entertaining Monday night slugfest, and it was made all the better by the fact that Minnesota took the road win. Think about it: if New Orleans wins at home, suddenly you look back at a Monday Night Football match-up of the 1-4 and basically out of contention Vikings and the 3-2, middle of the pack Saints. Now, at least there's a chance for the Vikings to fight their way back into the NFC North picture, while the Saints aren't really in too deep trouble in the South, although they can't feel too good about the fact that they're the only team at or below .500 in the division. This was a good Monday nighter, a refreshing change from the usual Monday night blow-outs.


Instead of doing a top-to-bottom ranking of all 32 NFL teams, I'm going to rank the divisions, and then each team within their division. My brain hurts when I try to rank all teams relative to each other. Here goes:

1. NFC East
Duh. At least 3 of the NFL's top 10 teams play in the East, and you could make a solid argument that the Eagles slide in there as well. The four teams have one loss combined outside the division, and in all likelihood both wild cards and every legit NFC title contender will emerge from the NFC East. Deal with it, bitches!
1st - New York Giants
Absolutely crushed the suddenly terrible Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, when both teams were coming off the bye. Now, unlike the Seahawks, who were supposedly healthier than they'd been all year, the Giants actually deliberately yanked their top offensive weapon for the game for violating a team rule. Not that Plaxico Burress cared much, apparently.
2nd - Washington Redskins
Solidly out-performed the Eagles in Philadelphia for a second cruise-control road win in a row. Frankly, both wins looked easier than anybody expected, and I still don't think the Redskins have played one of their 3 best games of the season yet. I mean it. A game will come this season where Jason Campbell goes for something like 320 yards and 3 scores and Clinton Portis tops a hundred yards, while the defense forces a few turnovers and gets a sack or two. It will happen, because it happens for every team. That the Redskins didn't need it in either of their consecutive road games against tough division rivals is beyond encouraging.
3rd - Dallas Cowboys
Looked like crap for the second weekend in a row. Barely got by the spunky but awful Bengals at home, and Dallas now plays 4 of their next 5 on the road. Still a favorite to win the division, but at the moment, pretty clearly not the class of the league or the NFC East. People are starting to grumble about the makeup of this team, about their toughness, about things the rest of us have known about for the last 12 years.
4th - Philadelphia Eagles
Apparently, in the minds of the Eagles, they don't actually need to win football games to get the Lombardi Trophy. They've already decided they're the best team in the league, no matter how crappy their record or lackluster their performances. Philly needs a wake-up call: they're 2-3 in the toughest division in football, they've dropped two division home games, they still haven't played the Super Bowl champs who hung up 7 sacks on them last season, and they can't stay healthy. If I'm casting the playoffs right now, Philly's so far on the outside, they can't even watch the games on television.

2. NFC South
Unbelievably, the South is a damn good division this year. Now, there's a significant chance at least two of these teams will end up near the top of the draft order in 2009, but as of this moment, 3 of the South's teams are above .500, and the team at the bottom of the division is still a favorite to make the playoffs. Most importantly, every team in the South has the look of a professional, well coached team and they all play like they expect to win. That's a change from seasons past, when you could expect one of the teams in the South to be among the worst in football every year.
1st - Carolina Panthers
I wasn't totally sold on the Panthers before this Sunday, and a 34-0 wipeout of the beyond horrible Kansas City Chiefs isn't going to suddenly do it for me. Still, if nothing else, it appears the Panthers have finally figured out how to take advantage of their home crowd. They're now 3-0 at home this season! The defense looks rejuvenated, Jake Delhomme has been solid, the ground game looks great, and they're getting a lot of different contributions in the passing game. I like the Panthers a lot this season. They look like a very solid NFC contender right now.
2nd - Atlanta Falcons
I was sure this was going to be the Bucs, but after they played like absolute crap in Denver on Sunday, forget about it. The Falcons have put up two very well played home victories this season and now have gone on the road and won in one of the more hostile environments in football: Green Bay. That's a big win for such a young team, and one thing is totally certain about this Falcons team: they've got some offensive playmakers. They really do. Michael Turner is a solid back, and the depth behind him is significant. Roddy White looks like the real thing. And Matt Ryan may not yet be the kind of guy who can win a football game with his arm, but he sure as hell isn't losing football games either. What a great story the 2008 Falcons have been so far, and what a job by Mike Smith.
3rd - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
First of all, I hate what Jon Gruden is doing with this offense. They have no identity whatsoever. I hate the quarterback situation. I think Gruden sucks. On the other hand, Monte Kiffin has that Tampa-2 humming at full strength right now, sufficiently that they've consistently shut down some of the league's more dangerous passing attacks through five weeks. It's possible Tampa could sneak into the post-season, but they have a low ceiling, they just do. The offense is far too herky-jerky, and they don't have quality depth at any skill position. Oh, they have depth, but it ain't quality. To be honest, I really can't stand the 2008 Bucs.
4th - New Orleans Saints
This is temporary. From the looks of things, the Saints are improving a bit on defense. A bit, a small bit, but still. And we all know they can score points. They don't have an especially tough schedule this season, and I fully expect them to string some wins together at some point and get back in the discussion. They do have a fatal flaw, though, in that they aren't strong enough defensively to make up for the fact that they can't consistently run the ball. That means they'll always have to put up a lot of points in the passing game, and so far, that hasn't been enough to get them wins against tougher competition.

3. AFC East
Yep, that's right, you heard me. The best division in the AFC is the East. Miami has two quality wins, including a big road victory. New England is 3-1, even with a fill-in quarterback. Buffalo is 4-1 and looks like one of the NFL's better overall teams. The Jets look like an explosive offensive team that can make up for their big, gaping flaws by out-gunning many teams. It's a solid, competitive division. Next season, or hell, by the end of this season, it could be a total train wreck, but for now, it's definitely the third most competitive division in football.
1st - Buffalo Bills
So the Bills aren't quite as good as their record. They aren't the only ones (you hear me, Tennessee?). But they do have a solid offense, a solid defense, and outstanding special teams. They don't kill themselves. The stick to the game-plan. They play close to their vests, they take advantage of opportunities, and they have just enough playmaking on offense to be dangerous even if they're behind in the fourth quarter. They look good for a playoff spot, although I'm still not sure they're good enough to win the division. They were on the cusp of a wild-card spot last season, and they definitely seem to have taken a big step forward.
2nd - New England Patriots
Who knows how this season will pan out in New England? One thing is certain: the Pats are still good enough to go on the road and wear down a lesser foe, and that makes them better than most teams in the NFL. They've got enough coaching and veteran savvy to gut their way to 10 or 11 wins this season, and in this year's AFC, that'll be enough to get into the playoffs. The big question mark . . . or, rather, the two big questions marks are the speed of the defense and the play of Matt Cassel. Cassel could conceivably improve as the season goes on, though he looked like rotten garbage on Sunday. The defense ain't getting any faster or younger, so they'll need to be able to put up points against anybody. It could be a very strange season for Pats fans.
3rd - New York Jets
This was a close call. Though the Jets beat the Cardinals in week 4 and hung 5,009 points on them, they didn't exactly look like world-beaters, did they? The defense was just plain awful, and they haven't looked like the same team from one week to the next all season. They went on the road and got thrashed up and down by the Chargers in week 3. Who know's what they'll look like coming off the bye week, hosting the roadkill Bengals? There's a chance for the Jets to string together some wins and make this thing a three-way race, but I don't really see it happening. I'm just not sold on this whole Brett Favre resurrection deal in New York. If it works, hey, good for them. I just don't see it working out that way. The Jets are short on playmakers and have a bad defense.
4th - Miami Dolphins
Hey, a second straight brilliantly coached win over a heavy favorite for those upstart Miami Dolphins. A healthy Ronnie Brown makes a huge, huge difference for the Dolphins, and with Chad Pennington protecting the ball and moving the chains, this team should be competitive in most of their games. That's a huge step forward for this franchise after last season's debacle. Sooner or later, teams are going to figure out that Wildcat offense, but damn if Tony Sparano hasn't found the offensive wrinkle of the 2008 NFL season. There's a real opportunity for the Dolphins to build big-time momentum headed into the 2009 season if they can just play out the stretch of this season as a competitive, feisty, professional-looking offense that has a chance to win in every game.

4. AFC South
After a pretty slow start, you're starting to see glimpses of what made a lot of people think this could be the NFL's strongest division headed into the season. The Colts are hanging around and have played a pair of real thrillers this season. The Titans have the NFL's best defense and enough offense to do the job. The Jags are banged up and look out of sync, but the defense has been stout and David Garrard is starting to round into form. Even the lowly Texans have been nothing if not feisty and competitive in two straight come-from-ahead losses. It's a tough division. Against all odds, the South will need a strong mid-season push from somebody to get a wild-card spot from the division. Injuries have ravaged this division as much as any in football.
1st - Tennessee Titans
The Titans haven't had the most impressive schedule in the NFL, but they do have the undisputed champ of team defenses at the moment. I'm going to go out on a limb here: the 2008 Tennessee Titans defense might be the best defense I've ever laid eyes on. Albert Haynesworth is almost certainly the greatest interior defensive lineman I can remember. Kerry Collins is starting to come back to earth a bit at quarterback, but the Titans have found a way, to this point, of taking advantage of field position and time of possession. They'll be very, very tough to beat for any team that doesn't find a way to catch fire offensively or win the turnover battle. Not that there should even be a discussion of the Titans going undefeated, they're not nearly that good, but they could very well win 12 or 13 games this season.
2nd - Jacksonville Jaguars
This was a closer call than maybe you think. The Jaguars haven't been able to put together 2 straight performances that were better than just okay, and that home loss to the Steelers in week 5 could loom large down the stretch. The Jaguars aren't running the ball like they have in the past, and the defense is just a hair weaker than it's been. Right now, they look like a team that has to play a damn-near perfect game to win against quality competition, and I'm not sure they have the variety in their offense or the pass rush on defense to be a legit contender. I don't think it's a coincidence that they brought in Gregg Williams to run the defense and all of a sudden they can't get pressure in the pocket. I mean, Ben Roethlisberger was sacked 9 times by the Eagles, and the Jaguars only got to him 3 times. 3 sacks, that's not a terrible number, but the Jaguars are in the bottom half of the league in sacks through 5 weeks. They tried to address this in the draft, but so far the results have been mixed at best.
3rd - Indianapolis Colts
Twice the Colts have had road victories handed to them by utterly incompetent play down the stretch from their opponents. If not for that, the Colts could be 0-4 right now. Seriously. Still, Payton Manning got warm in the second half against the Texans, and the running game came around a bit. They still can't stop anybody, and that's a major concern for them, but they've got a certain winning pedigree in Indianapolis after 200 consecutive trips to the playoffs (can you tell I've given up on trying to track down actual stats of late?), and I've got to believe they'll pick themselves up and put together a run here as we get into the middle part of the season. I'm not ready for the demise of the Colts just yet.
4th - Houston Texans
It will do little to console the poor Houston fans when I say that I really admire the way the Texans have played their last two games. No way this team contends for a playoff spot this season, no way. I know the Texans don't want another season of playing spoiler in the AFC, but that's the direction they're headed. There are worse things. The Texans showed in their last two losses that they can put points up and do some impressive things on offense. That defense still hasn't come around, and they just have a knack for self-destruction down the stretch. Again, it would be a successful season if the Texans gut their way to 7 wins and stay healthy throughout. The Colts are pretty clearly slowing down some, and the Jaguars might be coming back to earth after a brief run at contending in the AFC, so 2009 really could be an opportunity for the Texans to actually contend for the division.

5. NFC North
Now we're getting to the crap. We really are. The North is the fifth best division in the NFL, but damn are they a mess right now. The Bears are in first place at 3-2, but do they look like a serious contender? Can anybody even tell me what they do especially well? The Packers are falling apart, their defense looks like garbage and they've lost their mojo. The Vikings can't seem to put consecutive good performances together and they're getting next to nothing from the quarterback position. The Lions are undoubtedly one of the bottom 3 teams in the league, a trainwreck, a disaster. The North is looking at dumping a hideous 9-7 team in the playoffs and getting an early blow-out loss to finish the season. It's that bad, it really is.
1st - Chicago Bears
I can say this for the Bears: they're tough sons-of-bitches. They show up to play, and they don't take no crap from nobody. Matt Forte has been a great find for them, and Kyle Orton is doing enough in the passing game to keep defenses honest for the most part. The defense is pretty stout. There's just not a whole lot to be excited about with this team, but that's okay. I'm sure the good people of Chicago will take a 9-7 season and a division crown if it should come their way, especially with this sorry assembly of talent. The Bears really need an infusion of playmakers on both sides of the ball this off-season.
2nd - Minnesota Vikings
Hey, that was a damn good win for the Vikings Monday night. They went on the road and took down a contender without much of a contribution from their MVP. They still have the best backfield in football, the receiving corps looks better, the offensive line is solid, and the defense has been making plays all season. Yes, they were on the brink of dropping to 1-4, but they found a way, and now they've got a home game against division doormat Detroit before going to Chicago for a game that could potentially determine who sits in the driver's seat down the stretch for the division crown. The ground game still hasn't exploded on anyone yet, and you know it will, so it can truly be said of the Vikings that, though 2-3, they're not in especially bad shape headed into week 6.
3rd - Green Bay Packers
It's gut check time in Green Bay. The Packers were handled in a home loss to Dallas, but that's okay. Dallas is a good team. They followed it up with a very disappointing road loss in Tampa Bay, a game they needed against a team they can beat. But the third in a row, a home loss to the upstart (at best) Atlanta Falcons, that was the really bad one. They need the stink of losing off them immediately. It's laundry day in Green Bay. They're going to Seattle to face a horrendous Seahawks team that can't stay out of it's own way, and they need the win more than any team in the NFL . . . even more than the Seahawks. Wow, this is a pivotal, pivotal game in the NFC. The loser is pretty much out. Green Bay might be able to bounce back from a four-game losing streak, especially in their messy division, but it won't be easy. That defense needs to step up big time.
4th - Detroit Lions
The Lions are truly awful. I'm not kidding when I say they could go down in history as one of the NFL's worst teams, and that's especially shocking given the amount of playmaking talent they have at receiver. Their first 2 losses I can kinda excuse: they got down early to a surprising Atlanta squad and put some points on the board late before ultimately falling short, and then were pounded at home by a clearly superior Green Bay team. But in San Francisco they scored only 13 points in an 18-point loss, and then, coming off their bye, they put up only 7 points in a 27-point blow-out demolition loss at home to Chicago. Not only are they bad, they're getting worse. I haven't actually watched this team play at any point this season, but it kinda seems to me like they've thrown in the towel for 2008, and they've only played 4 games!

6. AFC North
My how the mighty have fallen. What was only recently one of the NFL's deepest, toughest divisions now sports two of the NFL's worst, most depressing teams, a third that can barely stay out of their own way, and perhaps the league's most banged-up, inconsistent division big-dog in Pittsburgh. The Browns and Bengals are absolute diaper shit. We'll see if the Browns look any better coming out of their bye at 1-3, but I think we can say with absolute certainty that neither of these teams will even sniff .500 by season's end. The Ravens aren't killing themselves, but they have enough defense to keep games close enough for their offense to piss 'em away. I respect the Ravens, I do, but they're the 2008 version of the Chicago Bears; only good enough to lose ugly games. The Steelers are a schizophrenic mess of a team, playing like the elite of their conference one day and then like ugly, unwatchable crap the next. Without a doubt, they're the most talented team in their division, but they've got to screw their heads on tighter and get serious about opening up on their division.
1st - Pittsburgh Steelers
I like the Steelers. I like Ben Roethlisberger, I like Hines Ward, I like Fast Willie Parker, I like the defense, and I'm a big Mike Tomlin supporter. I just hate watching this team play. They don't seem to know what their identity is out there. I can't watch them stumble through another dismal home game, kick four field goals and slink out with another discouraging win. The offensive line is awful, Roethlisberger holds onto the ball too long, they don't run the ball well enough to set up all that playaction passing, and they commit too damn many penalties. Another thing: they are never hot as a team except in the first two games of any given season. They never seem to hit their stride, which is why they will, again, flame out in the post-season. They can't string good performances together, and in the playoffs, you need to be able to depend on something or someone working dependably. Ugh.
2nd - Baltimore Ravens
They play like they mean it, on both sides of the ball. That's something. It's a credit to John Harbaugh that he's got a mis-matched team with a rookie quarterback who didn't even really earn the position playing competitively and giving themselves chances to win. They just don't do enough offensively to win close games. I could very easily see the Ravens coming out ahead in just enough of their games this season to keep Pittsburgh on their toes most of the way, and you've got to think their offense will improve as the season progresses, but they've let two very winnable games slip away in the past two weeks, and that kind of thing almost always haunts a team over the course of a full season.
3rd - Ummmmm . . . Cleveland Browns
Hey, what can I say, they beat the Bengals, they get the nod. Too bad that exciting offense of 2007 is the NFL's worst entering week 6. Too bad Derek Anderson, Pro Bowler, is going to have to be Derek Anderson, Professional Bowler, if he wants to make a living playing sports after this season. Too bad Braylon Edwards has the worst hands of any top-flight receiver in the NFL. Too bad the Browns still can't stop anybody after all these years. Too bad Romeo Crennel is actually a piss-poor gameday coach who doesn't understand scenarios or clock management. I had really high hopes for this Browns team this season, now they're just the single most depressing team in the NFL. I'm still hoping they'll come out of their bye week, hang up huge numbers on the Giants at home, and get their feet under them in time to get clobbered by the Redskins in Washington.
4th - Cincinnati Bengals
I'll give them credit for putting up a fight on the road against the Giants and then two weeks later on the road in Dallas. Those are tough opponents, and the Bengals actually did show up and compete. Well, most of them did. Chad Johnson was still MIA for the most part. Man, what a piece of crap this guy is. And here's what'll happen: after the season, the Bengals will either trade or cut him. Somebody like the Jets or Seahawks or Cowboys or Eagles will swoop in with some big-time offer for the guy and land him, and he'll spend a whole off-season talking about "the new Ocho Cinco", how he's happy where he is, how much better the new franchise is, how he's going to shock the world and all his doubters with unbelievable production, how he's going to prove he and his team are the best in the world. At the end of all that, Chad Johnson will be among my least favorite players in NFL history. And the Bengals will be vastly improved without him.

7. AFC West
Don't be fooled, the AFC West is a train-wreck. There isn't an actual good team in the whole division. At best, they've got a pair of pretenders. The bottom of the division is like a 2,000 year old well flooded with excrement. On top of it all, this might be the most poorly coached, worst run division in the NFL, a who's who of incapable idiots in front offices and coaching positions. And it's been this way for a while, nearly a decade now. Even when the Chiefs were "good", they weren't actually any good. They were Al Saunders good, and that ain't shit.
1st - Denver Broncos
And how sold am I on the 2008 Denver Broncos? I wouldn't pick them to win a playoff game against any team in the NFC East, NFC South, AFC East, or AFC South. I swear. Look, they can sling it around, sure. But they don't run the ball well, they don't defend well for shit, and they stink on the road. In fact, they're not all that good at home, either. They turn the ball over too much, they have no leadership on either side of the ball, several of the most overrated players in football, and complacent ownership. They could win 11 or 12 games this season in that thing they call a division, but they won't do a damn thing in the playoffs. No way.
2nd - Ummmmm . . . San Diego Chargers
And they stink. They really stink, they're a bad football team, they think too highly of themselves, they aren't coached well, they suck on the road, they bitch and moan and blame others when they lose, I hate them. Philip Rivers is totally overrated. LT is wearing down, it's sad but true. Antonio Gates hasn't been an actual difference maker in a game that mattered in eons. Their defense is probably the most overrated defense in maybe a decade of NFL football. I'll forgive them their loss to the Broncos, it was a tough one. But they went on the road and were flattened by the Miami Dolphins, and that's one of many sad calling cards of a Norv Turner team. I'm done with people sounding off on the quality of this donkey of a team. Boooooooooo!
3rd - Ummmmm . . . Oakland Raiders
But really, who knows? Tom Cable? Who thinks this guy has any legitimacy at all in the Raiders lockerroom, after he helped shuffle out the guy the players were pulling for so he could ascend under the worst ownership in NFL history? Who knows where this team goes from here? Will the players mail it in? Will Jamarcus Russell continue to grow as a quarterback under an offensive line coach? Will the Raiders revert to Al Davis' preferred seven-step-drop-'n-heave offense, now that he's got a puppet in there as head coach? That's it, I'm done talking about this depressing mess.
4th - Kansas City Chiefs
What can I say about the Chiefs that I haven't already said? The quarterback situation is laughable. The Chiefs weren't just shut down in the running game by Carolina, they were shut down, sold off in pieces at a discount, dissolved, and their CEO had his golden parachute taken away. Kansas City's defense hasn't progressed for shit, and they still have the worst coach in the NFL. They're light years away from being a competitive NFL team.

8. NFC West - The Worst Division in Football
Tell me I'm wrong! The NFC West is 3-9 out of their division. The four teams in the NFC West are a combined 6-13. The 2007 NFC West Champion Seattle Seahawks just lost by 38 points following their bye week to a team that sat out their best offensive player. The NFC West leader gave up 56 points to the New York Jets in week 4. The NFC West's defenses give up an average of 29.3 points per game. Without any doubt or discussion, the NFC West is the worst division in football and might be the worst division in sports. In fact, lets make it official: the 2008 NFC West is the Worst Division in Sports.
1st, Such as it Is - Arizona Cardinals
I still think the Cardinals have a fighting chance in the NFC. I still, still think if they can stay healthy they could compete in a playoff game. They've got veterans in the right places, a lot of playmaking talent, an aggressive defense, and some decent coaching. They showed in week 5 that they can bounce back from an ugly loss, and that they can put up big numbers at home. The Cardinals need steady improvement from their defense as the season progresses, and for the love of God, they need to figure out how to play on the road. Seriously. It's embarrassing.
2nd, or Should I Say, "Number Two" - Ummmmm . . . San Francisco 49ers
An abysmal train-wreck of a team. Sure, there are pieces here to like. Frank Gore is a nice back. Vernon Davis has some skills. Patrick Willis is a baller at middle linebacker. Mannie Lawson has completely disappeared, but I thought he could be a player. On the other hand, the 49ers have maybe the worst overall coaching staff in the league and are clearly just trying to buy time for themselves by pretending to compete this season. If you're a friend or family member of J.T. O'Sullivan, call him today and express your feelings towards him, because two weeks from now, he'll be gone. Gone forever. In fact, there's a body bag with his name on it in Giants Stadium right now, and a freshly dug grave waiting in San Francisco.
3rd - Ummmmm . . . Seattle Seahawks
Wow. In what other division would the Seahawks only be second from the bottom? A team this bad deserves to be at the bottom, they've earned it. Not many NFL teams come off of their bye week and lose by 38 points. 38 points! And they were supposedly as healthy as they'd been all year. My God. It's like everything I've been saying about the Seattle Seahawks for 3 seasons has all come to bear in one awful month! There's nothing to like about this Seattle team. Nothing! Their defense is atrocious! Matt Hasselbeck is a turkey! I mean he looks like a wild-turkey out there! Their receiving corps is obviously made of glass! The backfield is garbage! There's nothing . . . nothing to like about this team. Mike Holmgren is out of there just in time. If you're Jim Mora Jr., you're having serious second thoughts about next season and whatever commitments you've made to this franchise. You're taking a long look at Ty Willingham's collapse at the University of Washington right about now.
4th, and the Worst Team in the NFL - St. Louis Rams
Back from their bye just in time for a road trip to the hottest team in football, the Washington Redskins! On a serious note, though, the Rams do have some talent on the offensive side of things. I happen to think Marc Bulger is poop, but he's been a productive player in the past. I happen to think Steven Jackson is an asshole, and that he runs like a midget, but he's been a Pro Bowl tailback. Certainly, I have nothing bad to say about Torry Holt, who might be the NFL's only classy top-flight receiver. The offensive line is bad, the offensive design is bad, the depth is bad, the defense is bad, the culture is bad, and the front office is bad. Still, this Rams team scares me a little, as a Redskins fan. All the good will generated by the two straight tough-as-hell road wins, all the progress made in earning respect from the national media, all will be wasted if the Rams catch fire in week 6 and sting the Redskins at home. I'm still quite certain they're the worst team in the league, which will make it all the more painful if they dump the Redskins this Sunday. That can't happen.


I feel fairly certain my week 6 picks will be up on Wednesday.

Peace!