Playoffs, Anyone?

Your NFC Playoff Picture for 2008:

NFC Regular Season Champs
New York Giants
Headed down the home stretch, the Giants win 3 of their final 5 games to finish an NFC-best 13-3, securing the top seed in the NFC playoffs.

NFC South Champs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
At 11-5, the Bucs take the competitive NFC South by a game over Carolina and secure the NFC's second seed by winning 3 of their final 5 games, including a week 17 snore-fest at home against Oakland.

NFC West Champs
Arizona Cardinals
Despite ESPN's best efforts to convince us otherwise, by the start of the playoffs most fans will have figured out that the Cardinals were only good enough to win 10 games despite playing in the weakest overall division in football. The Cardinals finish up with 3 of four games at home, and sweep all three.

NFC North Champs
Chicago Bears
The Bears finish in a tie at 9-7 with the Vikings, have an identical division record and a tie in head to head match-ups, but a better conference record gives them the nod and the NFC's fourth seed. Chicago's in with home-wins over Jacksonville, New Orleans, and Green Bay sandwiched between week 13 and week 17 losses to Minnesota and Houston, respectively.

NFC Wild Card
Washington Redskins
Washington finds itself in a wild-card spot despite an 11-5 record. Washington's in after splitting their series against fellow east-coast playoff contenders New York and Baltimore, and then finishing strong with 3 straight wins over doormats Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and San Francisco.

NFC Wild Card
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas finishes strong with 5 wins in their last 7 games, including impressive home victories over the Giants and Ravens in consecutive weeks. 10-6 is good enough to get them in over Carolina by virtue of a much better conference mark.

We Can't Fucking Believe We're on the Outside!
Carolina Panthers
10-6 isn't good enough for a wild-card, and the fifth and sixth losses come back-to-back in road losses to the Giants and Saints in the final two weeks. It's enough to save John Fox's job, but not enough to get them in the postseason.

Atlanta Falcons
The miraculous 2008 season of the Atlanta Falcons comes to an end after they drop 3 of their final 5, including road losses in San Diego, New Orleans, and Minnesota. A week 17 demolition of the Rams in Atlanta is good for style points, but ultimately comes too late to secure the final wild-card slot. Mike Smith goes on to win Coach of the Year.

Minnesota Vikings
Will 9-7 be enough to save Brad Childress' job? Wait and see. Minnesota dumps Chicago, Detroit, and Atlanta, but can't get past the Cardinals in Arizona, nor the Giants in New York. Either win would have secured them a division title and put them past the wild-card. Maybe Childress gets dumped after all.

New Orleans Saints
The Saints finish strong, winning 3 of 5 including consecutive home wins over Detroit and Carolina to end the season, making them the fourth team in the NFC South to finish the season above .500. 9-7 isn't enough for the post-season, but Sean Payton is safe for now.

Green Bay Packers
Even down the home stretch, with the playoffs within reach, the Packers can't string wins together and wind up dropping consecutive road games in Jacksonville and Chicago, setting up a meaningless home obliteration of the Lions in week 17. 8-8 might be a decent record, but in this wacky 2008 season, it lands the Packers 11th overall in the NFC.

Philadelphia Eagles
8-7-1 might be the kind of garbage Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid argue is a successful season in the NFC, but it won't save either of their jobs. A 12th place finish in the NFC and that embarrassing tie with Cincinnati are too much to overcome. Down the stretch, Philly dumps Arizona and Dallas in impressive fashion, but goes on the road and gets throttled in both New York and Washington, dropping their division record to 1-5.

Garbage! Human Garbage!
St. Louis Rams
The Rams muster a decent stretch after absorbing their 5th straight loss in week 15, dropping both Seattle and San Francisco in St. Louis before losing their 12th game of the season in the final week, a one-sided mauling in Atlanta.

San Francisco 49ers
The Niners tune Mike Singletary all the way out down the home stretch and drop every game left on their schedule, including a demoralizing, season-ending home destruction at the hands of a desperate Redskins team. A 3-13 record and a nasty season-ending stretch ensures the good folks in charge of the franchise don't ask Singletary back.

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle plays just as poorly down the stretch as they have all season, lose every remaining game, and send Mike Holmgren into retirement on a sour note. Seattle's 2-14 record will at least get Jim Mora Jr. a high draft pick to start his tenure.

Detroit Lions
The Lions do the unthinkable, finishing the 2008 regular season with an 0-16 record. Virtually everything in the organization is scrapped and replaced headed into 2009.


And now, the AFC:

AFC Regular Season Champs
Tennessee Titans
A week 13 tune up against the awful Lions gets the Titans back on track, and they pound out 4 consecutive wins before shutting it down mid-way through a week 17 match-up against the desperate Colts. 14 wins give the Titans a narrow conference lead over the surging Jets and earn them homefield throughout.

AFC East Champs
New York Jets
The Jets continue their dominant run, adding five more consecutive wins down the stretch to finish the season. With road games in San Francisco and Seattle, New York's only real challanges come in home games against division rivals Buffalo and Miami. The Jets win both and cruise to a decisive AFC East crown.

AFC North Champs
Baltimore Ravens
An incredibly unlikely regular season ends with a division title and a trip to the postseason for the 11-5 Ravens, who surge through the final 5 weeks with only a single loss, in Dallas in week 16. A hard-fought week 15 home win over division rival Pittsburgh puts Baltimore in the driver's seat, and they hold on to finish the season. John Harbaugh would win Coach of the Year in any other season, but comes in a close second to Mike Smith.

AFC West Champs
San Diego Chargers
Thanks to tough home wins over Atlanta and Denver and a pair of back-to-back patsies in weeks 14 and 15, the awful, terrible, underachieving Chargers stumble to shameful division title and spot in the playoffs at 8-8. After a short stay in the playoffs, the Chargers clean house, dumping their coaching staff and General Manager A. J. Smith.

AFC Wild Card
Indianapolis Colts
After struggling much of the season to hang around .500 and stay in the hunt, the Colts put it together down the stretch and come away with a stron 11-5 record, good for second in the AFC South and a wild-card spot. The schedule down the stretch is favorable, and the Colts clean up against doormats Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Detroit before splitting their final two games against Jacksonville and Tennessee.

AFC Wild Card
New England Patriots
A strong push to end the regular season earns New England an 11-5 mark and the final AFC playoff spot. With tough home wins over Pittsburgh and Arizona sandwiched around pushover road victories against Seattle and Oakland, the Patriots are able to stay ahead of the Steelers and Dolphins, even with a week 17 loss in Buffalo to end the regular season.

This Shit is So Unfair!
Pittsburgh Steelers
Before they know it, the Steelers suddenly find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture despite a decent 10-6 record, making them the second AFC North team in two season to miss the playoffs after winning 10 games. Pittsburgh is only able to pound out wins against Dallas and Cleveland at home in their final five, dropping road dates in New England, Baltimore, and Tennessee.

Miami Dolphins
An incredible season comes to an end in Miami with the Dolphins on the outside of the playoff picture despite a 9-7 mark. Miami finishes strong, winning 3 of 5 games, but crucial road division losses at Buffalo and New York ultimately seal the deal.

Buffalo Bills
Like the NFC South, the AFC East finds all four teams above .500, as even the last-place Bills manage a 9-7 record by winning 3 of their final 5. While crummy San Diego is getting drilled in the wild-card round, two very good AFC East teams are watching from home.

Denver Broncos
The up-and-down season comes to an end with the Broncos losing a tie-breaker to the Chargers in the AFC West and well-outside the wild-card picture. The Broncos controlled their own destiny but choked down the stretch, dropping road games against the Jets, the Panthers, and tha Chargers to finish 8-8.

Hideous, Horrible Atrocities
Jacksonville Jaguars
The struggles continue, with the Jags dropping 3 of their final 5 games of the season to finish 6-10. Two impressive home wins over Indianapolis and Green Bay show what this team is capable of, but disappointing road losses to Houston, Chicago, and Baltimore keep Jacksonville well on the outside of the playoff picture.

Houston Texans
2008 must be seen as a step backward for the 6-10 Texans, despite showing continued growth on the offensive side of the ball and some promise on defense. Houston sandwiches three straight losses between a pair of home victories and lands near the bottom of the AFC yet again.

Cleveland Browns
Major changes follow the finish of a disappointing 5-11 season in Cleveland. The Browns manage only a single win in their final five games, an unwatchable mess of a home victory over the hapless Cincinnati Bengals.

Oakland Raiders
The Raiders manage to finish relatively strong (for them) winning 2 of 5, with home victories over the Chiefs and Texans. Tom Cable will not return as Oakland's head coach in 2009.

Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals continue their dismal decline all the way until week 17, when an embarrassing home date against the equally abysmal Kansas City Chiefs gives them their second win of the 2008 season. Somehow, someway, it's enough for Marvin Lewis to keep his job.

Kansas City Chiefs
The less said about this mess, the better. Kansas City loses every game the rest of the way, including 3 straight division contests to finish 1-15. Amid threats of major rioting in downtown Kansas City, the organization reluctantly fires the worst coach in NFL history and smartly deals away the second overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft.

There you have it, folks. I looked into my crystal ball and that's how it'll all end up.

Actually, the formula was simple: good teams won their home games. Bad teams only won home games against other bad teams. I did the same thing last season and got every playoff team except one. I had the 10-6 Browns in over the Titans, but the Browns fell short. In other words, it may be imperfect, but it came damn close once and that's good enough for now. If it sucks ass in 2008, I'll come up with something better for 2009.

Go Skynards!

Week 13 Pix

Here we go!

Tennessee @ Detroit
The Line: Tennessee by 11
Detroit is dead meat on Thursday. Like a turkey. Get it?

It's a funny thing about sports: when you have a disappointing loss, you're allowed to get "revenge" on the next sad-sack piece of shit team you play. There's something horribly wrong, yet terribly funny about Detroit getting beat up and humiliated as "revenge" for the Jets winning in Tennessee.

I'll say this, though: Tennessee hasn't been playing their best football for weeks now. Objectively, without taking a grand view of their record, I don't think they're actually one of the three or four best teams in the NFL. At their best, they're a team that can dominate defensively, run the ball extremely well, and not turn the ball over in the passing game. Pittsburgh, at their best, is all that plus 350 yards passing and 3 touhdowns. The same can be said of the Jets, the Giants, the Panthers, even the Cowboys. I'm not saying the Cowboys are better than the Titans, not in a million years. Alls I'm saying is the Titans have been primed for getting exposed for a few weeks now, and it finally happened. They need to get their mojo back, and they couldn't be in a better position than traveling to Detroit on Thanksgiving to ream the be-Jesus out of the awful, train-wreck Lions. It should be ugly.
Titans over Lions, 27-10

Seattle @ Dallas
The Line: Dallas by 12.5
Seattle can expect to have something brown crammed up their gaping asses. Like stuffing in a turkey. Get it?

Hey, who wants to take bets on whether or not Seattle will follow San Francisco's lead and give Terrell Owens 10 yards of space at the line of scrimmage on Thursday?

Actually, that could be an interesting thing to watch in this game, now that I think about it. Dallas had a big offensive explosion on Sunday, and if you weren't watching closely, it might seem like they solved all their offensive woes against the Niners. On the other hand, as I mentioned in my week 12 recap, they didn't run the ball well at all and Tony Romo actually wasn't sharp at all except for his deep connections with Owens. So what happens when Marcus Trufant starts the game in T.O.'s grill, disrupts him at the line, and Seattle's still-pretty-decent pass rush bears down on Romo while he looks for his other options? I guess what I'm saying here is the Cowboys will probably take a page from the Redskins versus Seattle and load up on Marion Barber's back. It's a good strategy. If they don't do it, who knows, this could be an interesting game. There's no way Dallas' defense is as good as Washington's. I'm just saying, keep an eye on this game. With as well as San Fransisco moved the ball against Dallas on Sunday, if they hadn't given up T.O.'s wet dream, they would have been in that game.

I'm predicting a Dallas blowout. But I'm putting it out there, just in case.
Cowboys over Seahawks, 34-20

Arizona @ Philadelphia
The Line: Philadelphia by 3
A win here wraps up the division for Arizona, so every win after this game would be . . . you got it, gravy. Like on a turkey. Get it?

I'm so tempted to take Arizona. Philadelphia has been so, so bad in their last two games, especially on offense. Baltimore's defense will do that to you, but Cincinnati? Not so much. Arizona is somewhere between the two, but they've got this going for them: they pressure the pocket well and they hit. I also kinda like the idea of this being a revenge game for Arizona, coming off their first loss at home and their third against the NFC East (that's right, we own your ass, motherfuckers). I like the idea of them going to Philadelphia, in front of an ornery, half-dead Philly crowd as angry at the home team as they are hungry for a victory, and pulverizing the Eagles into a chunky sludge. Like mashed potatoes. If there's anybody stupid enough to think the Eagles could still challenge for something this season, that'd be the end of that. I really want that to happen.

In order for Arizona to win, first, they need to protect Kurt Warner and make Donovan McNabb work in the pocket. If they can get a running game going, so much the better. I really like their chances. I've been sucked into believing in the 2008 Cardinals, but that will go into serious doubt if they can't take care of business against a wounded, flailing Philly team just begging to be euthanized. Euthanized and rubbed with butter, stuffed with bread, roasted to 155 degrees for the white meat and 185 for the dark, then carved and slathered with delicious gravy. Like a turkey.

Philly could win. Sure. But who knows what Philly team is going to show up. I know this: if McNabb struggles early and that crowd gets to booing, forget about the Eagles. McNabb is so ready to make it official in Philadelphia, no way he's battling both the Cardinals and the home crowd four days after being benched for the first time in his career. Forget that.

Hey, know what? Because they're favored, I'm calling it an upset special. Cards win!
Cardinals over Eagles, 27-21

San Francisco @ Buffalo
The Line: Buffalo by 7
Now here's a game to not care about. Buffalo might technically still be in the hunt for a wild card. Hell, they might technically have a shot at the division. That don't mean shit to me. I'm more or less done with the Bills in 2008.

Now, if they were to run up another shameful obliteration on Sunday, that might change things. They endured a truly nauseating 5-game losing streak that pretty much crushed their momentum and threw the whole organization into doubt, and the only way back from such a devastating blow might be a pair of back-to-back gruesome annihilations. If the Bills fight back to 7-5 behind a pair of resounding dominations, they might just recover enough swagger to make it a sprint to the finish of the regular season.

And they could flatten the Niners. As every week passes, the Niners have less and less to play for. They got pounded pretty good on Sunday, this is the second of two consecutive road games, and this one is all the way across the country in colder 'n hell Buffalo.

Alright, so here's the pick: Buffalo is favored by 7. San Francisco is sure to be worn out, so they probably won't do much on offense. It'll be cold, so Buffalo probably won't be up for another 50-point explosion. Buffalo by 7, fairly low scoring.
Bills over 49ers, 17-10

Baltimore @ Cincinnati
The Line: Baltimore by 7
I think this'll be another wipe out. Cincinnati is terrible.

Baltimore could probably win this game even if, instead of playing offense, they just punted the ball back to Cincinnati on every first down.

I really don't have anything to say about this game. Baltimore will win.
Ravens over Bengals, 23-14

Indianapolis @ Cleveland
The Line: Indianapolis by 4.5
Look who the Colts have beaten in their 4-game winning streak: the Chargers in San Diego, the Texans at home (just beat the Browns in Cleveland), the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and New England at home. What chance do the goddamn Browns have? None. Zero chance.

Indianapolis is rolling. Or, at any rate, they're doing what could be called rolling when you're as banged up and rusty as the Colts currently are. They're bouncing. Rumbling.

Cleveland needs to focus first on just getting some kind of offensive rhythm going. Where has the running game gone? Why wouldn't the Browns be able to run the ball against the Texans? Why would Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson play so, so poorly against Houston's defense? The Browns need something positive. A home win over the Colts would be very positive. Since that isn't going to happen, they'll have to settle for trying to put together a respectable offensive showing. Indy's defense isn't very strong. Give the fans something to be happy about. Complete some passes, run the ball at least a little bit, score a few touchdowns. You'll lose, but dammit, look respectable when you do it.
Colts over Browns, 29-21

Miami @ St. Louis
The Line: Miami by 8
You know, I'm not having a hard time with these picks. I see Miami going hog-wild in St. Louis.

I could be wrong. I've already picked 4 road teams. Generally speaking, that's lunacy. Still, how the hell do you pick the Rams? I can't identify a single thing this team does well. They don't run well, they don't protect, the don't pass well, the defense is just awful, and they have a way of getting flat-out annihilated in the first half of football games. Miami, on the other hand, hey, they're due a little pay-it-forward revenge too, aren't they? What's a good term for that? Forevenge? Miami is out for forevenge.

So I like the Dolphins.
Dolphins over Rams, 23-17

New York Giants @ Washington
The Line: New York Giants by 3.5
Here it is, folks. If there's a little pendulum that swings to and fro and determines things like revenge, forevenge, karma, etc., here's where it breaks, no shatters, and utterly betrays the Washington Redskins. The Redskins want revenge for week 1. They're also due some forevenge for 2 straight home losses in big games. They didn't get caught looking ahead in Seattle. Generally, that's a good sign. And none of it will matter, not even a little bit. Because the Redskins are going down. They're going down hard.

Look, I think we've established that I love the Redskins. I love them too much, perhaps. I love the Redskins like I hate the AFC West. And it's because of this love that I need to lay this one out early and honestly. If I go into this game with even a little hope that the Redskins will win, I will probably not be alive come Monday morning.

I'm extremely proud of the 2008 Washington Redskins. They're nothing if not overachievers. I love their discipline, I love their attitude, I really respect their humble, tortoise-like determination. I love an underdog, and the Redskins are good, lovable underdogs. The problem, in this match-up, is the Redskins might be a bit too tortoise-like. The Giants are not the hare. The Giants are the fully-loaded 18-wheeler. If the Redskins come out like humble, lovable tortoises against the Giants, they'll get smeared up 300 yards of interstate.

I'm hesitant to invoke the emotion of the Sean Taylor ceremony in calculating my final score. On the one hand, it's just possible that the emotion of the moment will lift the Redskins crowd and their performance to another level. On the other hand, it's extremely tacky to hope for such a thing, and I cannot and will not include any such thing in my expectations for the way this team plays on Sunday. The fact is, Sean Taylor was a real guy who really died, and he really was a friend and teammate to these guys. They're allowed to process that information any way they end up doing it. Now, I'm not giving them a pre-emptive excuse for a loss, but I'll say this: if my friend died, and a year later I showed up to work after a memorial service and had a shite day because I was all emotionally fucked up, well, screw you if you have a problem with that.

So here it is: if Washington wants any chance of winning this game, they absolutely must win the line of scrimmage. Running the ball well will be essential, if only because it'll keep the Giants from pinning their ears back in the defensive front. In the passing game, it would be a very good time to work in a healthy dose of the screens, slip-screens, draw plays, shovel passes, and play-fakes that have been peppered into Washington's play-calling through 11 games. I can't stress this enough, Washington cannot be in many long must-pass situations, especially not if they're behind. And the only way they can expect to hit any long pass plays is if they manage to frustrate or discourage New York's pass-rush. For that to happen, they need to run the ball well, or at least often, and they need to slow the rush by hitting quick plays behind it.

Defensively, hey, know what? I'm not all that worried about New York's offense. It's time for Washington's defense to get a little respect, dammit. The Redskins have the NFL's third ranked defense, better than New York. They're better against the pass and only 5 yards worse against the run. Washington's defense will do a respectable job if healthy. If they can give the offense a short field a few times and maybe force a turnover or two, hey, then they've really given themselves a chance.

It's also important that the Redskins not come out slow again. They've been bad in the first quarter on offense for a few weeks now. It's especially bad because Washington's defense has been at it's best, or at least it's feistiest, in the early part of games. For Washington to have a chance, they need their defense to come out fired up and win the line of scrimmage in the early part of the game, and they need their offense to take advantage. If they can put the Giants in a hole and take away the run a little bit, they'll give themselves an even better chance.

Okay, to keep from talking myself into picking the Redskins, I'm going to stop now. The Giants are going to win the game. Hopefully it won't be too bad a blowout.
Giants over Redskins, 20-13

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
The Line: Tampa Bay by 3.5
This is an interesting game. Let's get one thing out of the way: I'll be rooting like a mad-man for the Saints. Yes, I'm sick of them. No, I don't want them in the playoffs. But I just don't like those Bucs, and I'd rather the Panthers win the South, and I'd rather the Bucs lose out and miss the playoffs.

Last time these teams met, in week 1, the Saints pulled out a close, relatively low-scoring game in which Brees put up another damn efficient outing, going 23 of 32 for 343 yards, 3 scores, and a pick. I think it's safe to say he won't be too befuddled by the Tampa-2. And this game obviously means a lot more to the Saints than the Bucs. On the other hand, horrible old Brian Griese was starting at quarterback for the Bucs in week 1. Tampa's offense is . . . what, 100 times better with Jeff Garcia back there?

Just when I think it might be possible to pick the Saints, there's this, and this really made the decision for me: the Saints are 1-4 on the road in 2008, whereas the Bucs are 5-0 at home. No way in hell I'm picking New Orleans, one of the NFL's worst "good" road teams, to beat one of the NFL's 3 undefeated home teams. Forget it.
Bucs over Saints, 31-29

Carolina @ Green Bay
The Line: Green Bay by 3
Ah, fuck this game.

The Panthers have a tough road to the playoffs, now that they're in second place in the NFC South. That loss to the Falcons was a killer. Check this out: the Panthers have 3 road games left on their schedule: at Green Bay this week, at the Giants in week 16, and at New Orleans in week 17. They'll probably be underdogs in all three. Their two remaining home games are against the 8-3 Bucs and the 6-5 Broncos. By my math, for Carolina to win the South, they need to win 3 of those games and have the Bucs drop 3 of 5. Again, by my math, if the Panthers finish at 10-6, they will not get a wild-card berth. That's how I worked it out. I'll show you my math later, but there it is. A week ago, this was maybe the third best team in the NFL; now, they need to win one of three extremely tough road games and sweep two tough home games and get help from Tampa Bay to win the South, and if they don't win one of those road games or somehow drop a home game, they're all the way out of the playoffs. The NFC is friggin' bananas in 2008. I have a 10-6 and three 9-7s not making the playoffs from the NFC. Nuts.

So this is a huge game for Carolina. If they can find a way to go into Green Bay and come out with a win, it won't be smooth sailing by any stretch of the imagination, but it'll give them more of a margin for error in those final two weeks of the season when they travel to two more playoff hopefuls.

As for Green Bay, look, if they want any chance of winning the NFC North, they basically can't afford to drop more than one more game the rest of the way. They play 3 of 5 at home, and this is the toughest of the three. A loss here doesn't necessarily wrap it up, but do they really want to be in a situation of having to win out just to have a chance? Green Bay hasn't been able to put together any kind of solid stretch all year, and in order for them to have even a hope of making the playoffs, they'll need one to finish the regular season. It starts Sunday afternoon!

I have no faith in Jake Delhomme. He's killing the Panthers lately. Drew Brees made mincemeat out of Green Bay's tough secondary. Jake Delhomme ain't no Drew Brees. If Delhomme doesn't break out of his funk and start protecting the ball, the Panthers will lose this game and it'll be damn close to panic time in Carolina.

Here's how I see this game going: the Packers are going to have to sling the ball a lot, because it's extremely unlikely that Ryan Grant is going to do much against (anyone ever) Carolina's run defense. If the Packers can get up early and force the Panthers away from the running game, it'll be all she wrote for Carolina. On the other hand, if Aaron Rodgers turns the ball over or takes some hits or can't find a rhythm, and Carolina is able to use their running game to keep Green Bay's offense on the bench, it could get really ugly for the Packers. You saw what happened on Monday night when they had to do a lot of scoring in a hurry. It wasn't pretty, and the Saints defense is nothing like Carolina's.

I'm reluctant to give the edge to the team that won't be able to run the ball, is under .500, and just gave up 51 points to a team I don't take seriously at all. I like the Packers. I'd prefer they win the game. But they've been killing my picks pretty much all season, and I think I'm done picking them for a while. I'd rather they win, but the safe pick is Carolina, even on the road.
Panthers over Packers, 27-23

Atlanta @ San Diego
The Line: San Diego by 5.5
San Diego's defense is crap. Atlanta has a strong, two-headed monster of a running game, a solid, big-play passing game, they're stingy with the ball, they take advantage of opportunities, and they get good field position from having a pretty damn underrated defense and good special teams. Atlanta is the anti-San Diego: they're perhaps the NFL's biggest overachievers. God, karma, and Santa Claus all want Atlanta to win this game. So do I.

And I think they will. ESPN and some other parts of the national sports media may not have caught on yet, but even Jay Novacek (worst NFL analyst of all time) has finally realized that the San Diego Chargers aren't even a little bit better than their record. San Diego has the same record as Houston, the same record as Cleveland, the same record as Jacksonville. They're only a game better than Oakland. And that's who they are. They stink. At home, on the road, in division, out of division, in and out of the AFC, they're crap. They're poorly coached, they're apathetic, they're overrated, they don't do anything especially well, and they buy into their own hype more than any other team in the NFL other than Dallas.

I fully expect Atlanta to win this game. I see them running the ball well, working the play-action passing game, getting after it on special teams, winning both lines of scrimmage, and generally just hustling more and wanting it more than San Diego. San Diego, led by Norv Turner (and all his excuses) and the smirking Philip Rivers, doesn't have the heart to battle a character team like the Falcons.

At least, that's how I hope it goes. I'm not fooling myself, though; the Chargers still have some talent on offense and they are at home and they could win. The thing is, on a neutral field I'd probably pick Atlanta to win 9 of 10 games. Here's the funny part: though Atlanta is on the east coast and San Diego is a dismal west-to-east team, I'd actually like San Diego's chances more in Atlanta, even as well as the Falcons play at home. Why? Because one of the big problems with this Chargers team is how flat they are. It's a hallmark of a Norv Turner team. At home, they expect to win. They expect it to be easy. They're not prepared to come out and fly around and kick the shit out of somebody for four full quarters. On the road, in hostile Atlanta, I'd expect those few players on the Chargers with any pride to be at least a little fired up, in spite of Turner's best efforts, just by the challenge of it all. In San Diego, I expect the Falcons to be hungier, sharper, more focused, and better prepared. I lived all the way through Turner's tenure in Washington, I remember all too well how flat his teams were at home, even in big games. They were also flat on the road, sure, but at home it was sometimes like they were drugged or in a daze. They'd float around like zombies with puzzled looks on their faces, they'd be sucking wind and reeling by the end of the first half, and generally speaking, Norv was powerless to get them to adjust or sober up for more than one good drive in the second half. Against hungry, tough, sharp teams, it was never enough.

So I'm picking the Falcons, on the road, all the way across the country. They're always tougher, always sharper, always hungier, always more prepared. And then there's that Norv Turner edge.
Falcons over Chargers, 28-23

Now, before I go a single pick further, I'd like to point out that I've now picked 8 of 11 possible road teams. Have the wheels come all the way off my 2008 NFL picks? What the hell's going on here? I'm tempted, very, VERY tempted, to go back and reverse my pick on that Carolina/Green Bay game. Maybe the Arizona/Philly game. Maybe even the Atlanta/San Diego pick I just made. This is a friggin' debacle. I'm going down in flames in week 13.

Denver @ New York Jets
The Line: New York Jets by 8
Here's one I don't have to worry about. I'll be shocked if the Jets lose this game. There's always the "trap game" possibility, after such a huge road win in week 12. It's possible. Jay Cutler could get hot again. You never know.

I really don't care about this game at all. I bullshitted my way through 5 paragraphs of Falcons/Chargers, I earned the right to give the finger to this massacre-in-the-making.
Jets over Broncos, 41-21

Pittsburgh @ New England
The Line: New England by 1
Pittsburgh would love to get sweet, sweet revenge on this Patriots team for whupping 'em pretty good in what was supposed to be a competitive game in 2007. And I do think the Steelers are not just a much better team than in 2007, but a much better team than even 4 weeks ago. They've tinkered around with their passing game to take some pressure off their offensive line, and it's helping open things up for Ben Roethlisberger.

Weather will not be a factor in this game, no matter how cold or blustery it ends up being. Pittsburgh plays in a goddamn nuthouse of elements at Hines Field. A game in Antarctica would be favorable. Ultimately, Pittsburgh's defense is charged with the same task they failed miserably at last season; find a way to address New England's spread offense. The 3-4 is good at a lot of things, but defending 4 and 5 receiving options ain't one of them. If they can't get pressure on Matt Cassel before he gets comfortable dumping the ball off, they'll be in trouble.

Now, I happen to be more intimidated by Pittsburgh's defense than just about any in football. I have tons of faith in their ability to push around just about any offense in football. It will not surprise me at all if Matt Cassel implodes utterly under the pressure he's sure to face Sunday afternoon. In order for me to pick the Steelers (another road team), though, I'd have to be pretty damn certain whatever they have planned to take away New England's offense is superior to whatever Josh McRoberts and Bill Belichick have cooked up to confuse and attack the other way. I'm not certain. Not at all. Not after the way New England shredded to smithereens Miami's 3-4 on Sunday.

So I'm picking the Patriots. Again, I'm rooting against this pick, but I think the Pats are a safe pick at home.
Patriots over Steelers, 24-23

Kansas City @ Oakland
The Line: Oakland by 3
I thought about checking to see when either of these teams was last favored in a game. Then I thought about looking at stats or records or doing any sort of actual thinking about the match-up so as to make an educated pick. But you know what? This is possibly the worst game left on the NFL schedule in 2008, and I can't waste even 10 minutes coming up with this pick. I'm taking the home team by the spread, and I don't care, and I'm not watching the highlights unless a comet rockets down into Oakland and obliterates the stadium.
Raiders over Chiefs, 75-72

Chicago @ Minnesota
The Line: Minnesota by 3.5
Here's the thing: I think Chicago is ten times better than Minnesota. Better coach, better quarterback, better special teams, more cohesive, better. Just better.

I'm picking the Vikings, and here's why: because Chicago is better and I want them to win the North, but they play in the North, which means they aren't clutch and won't ever take care of business. Because the Vikings are phony and fatally flawed but they play in the North too, so they're sure to stick a thorn in the side of the better team and throw the whole thing into a blender for another few weeks.

And these teams will probably combine for 200 points.
Vikings over Bears, 37-27

Jacksonville over Houston
The Line: Houston by 3
Don't know, don't care. I never would have predicted that a week 13 Monday night game between two AFC South teams would be completely irrelevant. Well, here it is.
Home team by 3.
Texans over Jaguars, 24-21

I'll have more later in the week. I actually did the whole playoff math thing I did last year, I've got it all on paper. I'll post in before Sunday. It's really wacky, and if it turns out to be correct, I will officially be the greatest genius of all time.

Go Skynards!

Week 12 in Review

What a bullshit weekend of NFL games. As a football fan, I'm insulted by Sunday's results. Taking out the Washington/Seattle and Indianapolis/San Diego games, the average margin of defeat was over 18 points per game. Winning teams in those games averaged an absurd 35 points. In short, it was a full slate of one-sided massacres. Maybe other NFL fans feel differently, but I hate that kind of thing. I like a game that features two teams playing well. I can handle a good team throttling a bad team, but that should be a rarity. I could totally throw back this kind of football Sunday, when most games are over by halftime, and the only people with a reason to continue watching are fantasy football nerds.

And with that rousing introduction, let's dive into the recap.

Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, 27-10
My Pick: Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, 31-13
This was nothing but a cold-blooded sniper shot. The Bengals are wounded, struggling to get their feet under them, lurching and bleeding and generally on death's door. The Steelers just calmly lined 'em up in their sights, steadied their aim, and popped a death shot in Cincinnati's neck. The Steelers are good for this kind of thing: they got Cincinnati's best Thursday night, which isn't saying much: the Bengals committed two penalties and only turned the ball over once. But Pittsburgh held them to 208 total yards and only 25 minutes of possession.

And really, the most interesting part of this game was the weather. Was that cool or what? A nice steady snowfall and some pretty hectic swirling winds to whip it up and shoot it horizontally. That I liked.

And one more thing: Ben Roethlisberger isn't my favorite quarterback in the NFL, but he's up there. For all the shit he takes for holding the ball too long and not knowing when to check down or throw the ball away, the guy's just a friggin' never-say-die gamer out there. I love watching him take a deep drop, give a big pump fake, juke and dance his way back into the pocket, and somehow always find a way to sling the ball through traffic to a guy on the move with velocity and accuracy. At worst, he's a more likable, less erratic, younger version of Brett Favre. At best, he's a rumblin', stumblin', playaction assassin. His numbers weren't fantastic against the Bengals, but he found a nice little groove there spotting guys on deep middle routes and selling all the little play-fakes and screens the Steelers rolled out. He's fun to watch when he's on.

Baltimore over Philadelphia, 36-7
My Pick: Baltimore over Philadelphia, 20-17
Ouch. You've got to give it to the Eagles: they sure as hell weren't going to let NFL fans spend the rest of the year trying to figure them out. They came out on Sunday and put all doubts to rest: they're garbage. Throw them immediately on the scrap heap of teams in total disarray.

They had no business being on the field with Baltimore on Sunday. No business! Other than a fine kick return by Quincy Demps, not one single part of Philadelphia's team was even remotely respect-worthy. The play-calling was atrocious. Donovan McNabb shrugged and yawned his way through a half of flat-out abysmal football before Andy Reid finally placated Philly's awful fans by completely selling Kevin Kolb up the river. Seriously, maybe next time, Reid could be a little less subtle when Philly's fans start bitching and just tie Kevin Kolb to the railroad tracks. How cruel and how juvenile to send Kolb out there to have his genitals mutilated against Baltimore's defense for a half of football, only to re-assert McNabb's place on the depth chart immediately after the game. "Hey, you asked for it, guys. You think he's so great? Here's his ass on a platter! How do you like him now?"

Philly's offensive line was just a joke. Brian Westbrook, who I generally like but plays with about as much passion as the Terminator, checked out on this season weeks ago and clearly couldn't be roused to give a serious effort against such adversity. And Philly's defense, once it became clear the offense wasn't going to give them any help, spent the second half going through the motions (at best).

And here we are at the end of week 12 of the NFL season, and the Eagles have gone from a team I generally like, fear, defend, and enjoy watching to being perhaps the second or third most depressing team in the league. How can anybody like or root for these guys?

As for the Ravens, it's hard to point out exactly what they did especially well on offense, but when your defense dominates an opponent the way their's did on Sunday, sometimes all you have to do is not cram your head up your own ass and you'll put a few scores on the board. To their credit, they took advantage of opportunities and didn't turn the ball over. It was enough. The Ravens are in great shape. And one more thing: Ed Reed is the last guy in the entire NFL you want to intercept your quarterback's pass. The guy just beat his own record for longest interception return for a touchdown. There are certain defensive backs in the NFL, when they get their hands on the ball, they just have an innate ability to go a long way with it. Ed Reed is the President and CEO of their little club.

New York Jets over Tennessee, 34-13
My Pick: Tennessee over New York Jets, 17-16
Talk about a rude awakening: one day you're undefeated and sitting pretty well at the top of the NFL, and by sundown the following evening you've been de-pantsed and man-raped at home in front of 65,000 shell-shocked fans, beaten just about as brutally as possible and now actually polling at third best in the AFC on NFL.com. Ouch. On the one hand, hey, you're still having a great season. On the other hand, damn, that's one seriously discouraging loss.

Kerry Collins seems like a pretty good guy, and he's been more or less steady for the Titans, but I think we can put all that trumped up MVP talk to bed forever. Wasn't that silly? Nothing like a Sunday afternoon stinkbomb to make everyone glance back at your season stats and realize, hey, actually, you've been playing like pretty mediocre crap all season in front of the AFC's best offensive line by far. The Jets did a job on Tennessee's ground game, and you knew they would, but goddamn, Kerry Collins was flat-out nauseatingly bad through three quarters of this one. Don't be fooled by his relatively defensible final stats, either: Collins completed 9 of his final 10 passes after this game was well, well out of reach, after he'd fumbled the ball to end the last chance Tennessee had of staying in the game or keeping it respectable. Before the last two garbage drives, when Chris Simms or Vince Young probably should have been on the field, Collins was 12 of 29 for about 150 yards. You don't just lose when you play like that, you don't just get benched, you actually go to jail.

The Jets, on the other hand, made a strong, hard-to-argue-with claim to being the AFC's best team and perhaps even the NFL's second best. They manhandled the Titans in Tennessee. Brett Favre was sharp and efficient, totally out of character for him. Their defense totally dominated Tennessee. And New York took advantage of just about every single opportunity. It was a massacre. I still don't give a damn about the Jets, I still think they're baloney, but I wouldn't exactly go shouting about it in a Jets bar. Am I ready to take them seriously? Not really. But they played a terrific game, there was no bullshit in this victory.

Tampa Bay over Detroit, 38-20
My Pick: Tampa Bay over Detroit, 21-7
Wow, it turns out I barely have anything to say at all about this game. I really don't like the Tampa Bay Bucs. For one, I hate watching them on offense. Second of all, I think Jon Gruden is incredibly overrated. And the third reason is the Redskins keep running into these guys in the playoffs, and I'm really irritated that the Bucs are a potential barrier to the Redskins getting to the post-season this year. I'll give them credit for taking care of business and being atop the NFC South, but I'm sick of them, they're not a legit Super Bowl contender, and I don't want any pretenders keeping the Redskins out of the playoffs. If there's going to be a pretender in the NFC playoffs, dammit, it's going to be the Redskins.

As for Detroit, no team is more up in the air than the Lions. What do they do well? At least with the Raiders, you know nobody's throwing at Nnamdi Asomugha and they have a deep backfield. The Lions are so frustrating because they don't seem interested at all in establishing anything even semi-permanent. Because they signed and then turned the offense over to a retired Daunte Culpepper pretty recently, it's impossible to even predict how they'll play from one week to another, and they can't possibly even know what plays will work or how much they should emphasize the ground game, something they don't seem capable of doing or willing to do. I honestly feel like they might go 0-16, only because they're playing nothing like a team that is desperate to avoid that distinction, nor are they playing or coaching at all like they understand the importance of just getting a single win. They seem to be treating these games like preseason exhibitions, and it's both depressing and infuriating.

Minnesota over Jacksonville, 30-12
My Pick: Jacksonville over Minnesota, 21-19
I no longer have any doubt that Jack Del Rio is one of the five worst coaches in the NFL. Jacksonville's inconsistent bullshit is just one of his failings. No coach in the NFL is more cowardly, week to week, than Del Rio. The Jaguars called 9 running plays in the entire game. Time and time again, when faced with a tough run defense, the Jaguars make the decision to shelve their running game altogether and sling the ball around. In my preview of this game, I made a point of questioning which of the two coaches would make the utterly indefensible decision to completely abandon the run; it was the Jaguars, they played like shit, and they deserved the 18 point loss.

I will be disgusted to the point of actually vomiting if Jack Del Rio opens up 2009 as Jacksonville's head coach. The Jaguars are, hands down, among the two or three healthiest teams in the NFL, and have been all season. The only possibly excuse for the pathetically poor play of this team and their utter cowardice in the face of a strong defense is the lousy, clueless coaching they're getting from this putz. Jacksonville is a talented team, and just about any person who even just sometimes watches football can look at this team and tell you what they're built to do. I don't even need to type it here. When healthy, as they are, this team should be able to win more games than they lose, and they should be competitive in pretty much any game. Now, every team gets their balls handed to them from time to time. Even the Giants laid an egg in Cleveland. First of all, though, a team should not get their doors blown off in a must-win home game, and second of all, if you're going to get your doors blown off in a must-win home game and watch your dwindling playoff hopes sink like a stone, it shouldn't be to this Minnesota Vikings team, not with Brad Childress at the helm, not unless Adrian Peterson goes completely berzerk. Peterson didn't even play the first half against Jacksonville. Nope, it was the direct result of Jack Del Rio's poor coaching, his team's abysmal special teams play, his bone-headed cowardly move to abandon the run and feature the pass, that gave Minnesota cheap points and favorable field position for the whole part of this game that was competitive.

Now, as for Minnesota, it's important they not get too excited by this win, if for no other reason than because they're almost certain to come out flat, give up a pair of special teams scores, and get completely dismantled in week 13. In fact, I haven't even looked at their schedule yet. Here goes . . . yep, hosting Chicago on Sunday night. Rest assured, I will be picking the Bears in that game, and unless the spread is 15 points, I'm picking them to cover. I friggin' can't stand either of these two teams, and I'm thankful this festival of terrible coaching is now behind us and these two teams won't meet again for a few seasons.

Buffalo over Kansas City, 54-31
My Pick: Buffalo over Kansas City, 23-20
Buffalo played the big, bad bully in this one, taking out all their frustrations on an ass-backwards circus act from Kansas City. If I hated Kansas City even a little less, I might resent the Bills for it. As it stands, I just give a sad, disgusted little chuckle and shake my head. What a fucking disgrace.

Trent Edwards shook the cobwebs out, screwed his helmet on straight, and gave a ballerific performance on Sunday. Honestly, that's all I have to say for the Bills.

As for Kansas City, look: they've been getting a lot of credit lately for the play of Tyler Thigpen and the spread offense. I don't want to take anything away from the guy, but for crying out loud, maybe we want to take a look at the team's record and remind ourselves they're 1-10. This guy could have a decent career ahead of him, but let's not let that distract us from the fact that his team is undoubtedly one of the absolute worst pieces of dysfunctional dog crap in the NFL. And this is exactly my problem with Herm Edwards and his effect on franchises that hire him: he shoos out all the talent in a fairly broad stroke, pretty rapidly knocks the team down to the bottom rung of the league, and then we all start giving his teams credit for not getting blown out one week and competing despite a lack of playmakers. The same exact shit happened in New York. Kansas City, under Herm Edwards, is an embarrassing, shockingly bad slap-stick recreation of NFL football, week in and week out. Their defense is totally overmatched against even mediocre offenses. Their offense is at its best when it avoids turning the ball over a half dozen times and manages to convert 30% of their third down chances. The Chiefs are a terrible team with virtually no expectation that they can compete with the better teams in the league or have anything to play for other than some sort of ambiguous improvement from . . . what, week to week? Month to month? Embarrassing lopsided ass-kicking to embarrassing lopsided ass-kicking? And yet, somehow, he'll skate by for a few seasons on the expectation that his determined efforts to take 8 years off the average age of his players will someday yield even a cohesive, competitive team. What other coach in the NFL is allowed to hang around on the expectation that someday, the youth of his team will jell and he might just have a cohesive, competitive team. There's something about this guy, he's the master at obliterating accountability over his head and driving standards and expectations not just to the ground, but through the earth and out a manhole in a residential street in China. The day the Redskins hire Herm Edwards for anything but target practice is the day I swear off the NFL forever.

Chicago over St. Louis, 27-3
My Pick: Chicago over St. Louis, 20-14
How can you be sure you're a pathetic, hopeless, once-in-a-lifetime trainwreck of an organization with no competitive drive and not a chance in hell of making anything respectable out of your season? When you put up 3 points, commit 11 penalties, turn the ball over 4 times, gain only 207 yards of total offense, play 3 quarterbacks, 3 runningbacks, gain only 14 rushing yards, get outscored 99-10 in the first half of your last 3 games, and wear a St. Louis Rams uniform. When Jim Haslett is hugging the toilet every few hours, projectile vomiting the contents of his stomach so hard it splashes back in his face and all over his shirt, then dry heaving for another 5 minutes for good measure, do you think when he flushes he sees his career swirling around in there amid the chunks? Once upon a time, perhaps as recently as 5 weeks ago, Haslett was an actual, honest-to-goodness candidate for a head coaching position in the NFL. At this rate, I wouldn't hire him to replace a lightbulb. That's so sad, it goes from sad to funny to horribly depressing and then all the way to me feeling guilty as shit for even having written it, like I spit on his grave or something. A grave he'll be inhabiting soon, after he barfs up his still-beating heart.

I predicted the Bears would ride Matt Forte to victory, and though they did, I wasn't exactly correct. I mean, I was correct, but seriously, the Bears could have ridden Joe Forte to victory. They could have handed the ball 20 times to Matt Damon and they still would have won. Still, if you're a Bears fan, you can be pretty excited about what you saw on Sunday. Forte's a horse, and your Bears are getting healthy. The defense played their most complete game of the season, and the pass-rush was really strong. The Bears are still in the fight in the NFC North, and hey, I'm pretty psyched about that. From now on, I'm rooting for the Bears to win the North. To hell with the other teams in that crappy division. There isn't a one of them that isn't playing well below their potential. Among NFC North teams, the Chicago is the only one that ever seems to step up and play over their heads, and I respect them for it. Go Bears!

New England over Miami, 48-28
My Pick: Miami over New England, 27-17
Down the stretch, New England got into one of those 2007 grooves where you knew as soon as the other team blinked it would all be over. To their credit, Miami didn't really blink until the fourth quarter, but it was enough for the Patriots to open it up and wind up with a 20-point margin in a game that wasn't actually all that one sided, at least not compared to the rest of Sunday's games.

It's possible I completely forgot Randy Moss was even a part of New England's offense for a while there, but he put together a classic performance in Miami. Before I go further down the road of heaping praise on the Patriots, let me first say I really don't like their offense, I really don't like their offensive players, I'm really not sold on them, and even if they win out, even if they win the AFC, even if they win the Super Bowl, I'll probably just end up being depressed about the stupidity and inflexibility of NFL defenses, rather than impressed by or sold on New England's offense. And if there's anybody out there who still thinks Tom Brady is as good as his 2007 numbers, well obviously you haven't watched the 2008 Patriots in a few weeks. Not only is Matt Cassel just as good at running the passing part of the Patriots offense right now, he's actually better at the little things like buying time with his feet and scrambling for a first down. Now I'm going to say something really absurd: if the guy under center in last season's Super Bowl had been able to escape and move like Matt Cassel, the Patriots would have finished their undefeated season. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Giselle Bundchen.

Honestly, it turns out I still can't stand the Patriots under Bill Belichick, and I really don't give a damn at all about the Miami Dolphins. Hey, they're having a nice season, hurray! I happen to think all the teams in the AFC East are weak-schedule-inflated, overrated pretenders. I don't like thinking about 'em, I don't like writing about 'em, I don't like watching 'em, I don't like predicting or recapping their games. So there.

Dallas over San Francisco, 35-22
My Pick: Dallas over San Francisco, 29-16
It turns out I nailed the margin of defeat and underestimeted each team's offense by 6 points. Huzzah!

San Francisco was competitive for about 13 minutes of this game. For the opening 13 minutes, they controlled the line of scrimmage, Tony Romo was way off, and there was hope for Niners fans. Then the wheels came all the way off, starting with Nate "Roadkill" Clements, who'll be serving breakfast and cocktails in a penguin suit at Terrell Owens' mansion for the next 25 years.

Seriously, honestly, that's the whole story of this game. Neither defense dominated, neither running game was especially strong, neither quarterback was really all that effective. The whole tale of the tape Sunday afternoon in Dallas was Terrell Owens repeatedly humiliating Nate Clements on deep routes. Seriously, go check the stats. That was the difference. Take away T.O.'s production, and Romo was 17 of 32 for 138 yards.

And if you're Mike Singletary, a 13-point loss to the Cowboys in Dallas doesn't hurt the ol' resume nearly as much as the strategy in the secondary versus Dallas' wide receivers. What the hell were they thinking? Every team in the NFL, since week 4 of this season, has known to put someone with long arms at the line opposite T.O., get in his face, disrupt him, jam him, screw up his timing with Romo, and he'll go away. See, there's this little thing called "video" that we have in the modern part of the world, and teams have been using these "videos" to watch what other teams did successfully against the Cowboys. Not the 49ers, apparently, who thought it would be a good idea to station Clements a good 10 yards off the line of scrimmage on virtually every passing down of the whole game. What an unbelievable, incomprehensibly stupid strategy by the 49ers, and it reflects very poorly on Singletary, who is supposed to know a thing or two about defense. What the hell were they thinking? What did they see in their tape sessions leading up to this game, what were those conversations like?

And now, with the benefit of hindsight, now that it's obvious the whole difference in the game was the way T.O. got completely loose against San Francisco's horribly out of position secondary, doesn't that utter failure of the coaching staff make a strong impression when considering anybody associated with San Francisco's defense for a coaching position?

As for the Cowboys, hey, in Cowboyland, when your team puts up 35 points and your loud-mouthed receiver puts up over 200 yards the same week in which he went on national television and complained to Deion Sanders about the rigidity of the offense, hey, you're back on top of the world. Nevermind that your defense gave up over 300 yards passing to Shaun Hill and the 49ers, or that your tailback averaged just about 2.5 yards per carry on 19 rushes, or that, with the exception of one 22-point explosion in the second, you were outscored and outgained in every other quarter. On the other hand, a win is a win. The Cowboys have an opportunity to get back on track, staying at home next week to face the awful Seahawks before a week 14 showdown in Pittsburgh.

Houston over Cleveland, 16-6
My Pick: Houston over Cleveland, 31-27
Just a dismal, dismal afternoon in Cleveland. 5 turnovers, 5 penalties, 22 minutes of possession, 6 total points, 2 horrific quarterback performances, and a Browns team that has pretty clearly quit on this season, no matter what Romeo Crennel or anyone else in the Browns organization might say to the contrary. Losing to Houston is okay, I suppose. Losing to them at home, that's a shame, as they're pretty clearly a bad road team. Losing to the Texans at home with Sage Rosenfels under center, that's just embarrassing. But losing to the Texans at home with Sage Rosenfels under center when you hold their offense to only 16 points? Houston's defense ain't shit, y'all. If Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson can't do better than 13 of 32 and 3 picks against this defense, they ought to forfeit their paychecks.

Two quick shout-outs and I'm done: Kevin Walter is one of the more underrated receivers in the NFL. Who knows how he might do opposite a receiver less dangerous than Andre Johnson, but to his credit, he's taking advantage of the opportunities. The other shout-out is for to Houston's defense, which played a pretty great game on Sunday. That's it! It was an irrelevent game, so I can't give it too many words or I'll burn out before I get to the meaningful stuff.

Oakland over Denver, 31-10
My Pick: Denver over Oakland, 42-20
Go into a sports-bar anywhere in America and say something offhand as silly as "I hate the AFC West", and no one is likely to even raise an eyebrow. Even in Denver. But go into a sports-bar anywhere in America with "I hate the AFC West" tatooed on your forehead, your eyebrows shaved off, a shirt with the four AFC West logos covered with a big, red X over them, and fire a dozen rounds from an AK-47 into the first person who claps when any of the four AFC West teams makes a positive play on the television, well, you're likely to get locked up for that. We may not be there yet, folks, but we're close. At halftime of this one, I was grinding my teeth to dust. I used to hate the AFC West. Now I really hate the AFC West.

I hate the AFC West because I'm having to re-evaluate some pretty basic, fundamental understandings I've had of myself. It turns out, for instance, that I'm someone who needs order, who needs organization, who needs for things to make sense. You'd never know that by looking at my bedroom, or my kitchen, or the incredibly large pile of laundry growing next to my bed like the blob. Spend some time with me, as I have, and you'd almost certainly come away with the same pretty clear assumption: I don't mind disorder. Well, you'd be wrong. This shit-hole they call the AFC West has shown me, once and for all, how much I require order, organization, progress, sense, a certain structural foundation in the world. Watching, reading about or even thinking about the AFC West makes me twitch and sweat and cringe. It makes my stomach ache. I'm this close to either joining a Yoga class or twisting someone's head off.

The thing about Oakland routing the Broncos in Denver is, there's no possible explanation. Oakland hadn't scored an offensive touchdown in 15 consecutive quarters of football. 15 quarters! Oakland's offense is so bad, we're at the point where comments about Al Davis strapping on a helmet and stepping in under center aren't funny anymore, they're the result of actual brainstorming. They're food for thought. And it's not like Oakland's defense is much better. Nnamdi Asomugha is like a bobber tied to a 15-foot line attached to a rotting corpse.

And let's talk about this game, for crying out loud. Oakland went into Denver and committed 10 penalties. They threw the ball 12 times. They never sacked Jay Cutler. They were outgained by the Broncos. How in the hell do you lose to the Oakland Raiders like this? Well, first of all, Jay Culter was atrocious. His two best completions of the night, by far, were two early screen passes. The thing about these "gunslinger" quarterbacks is when they're out of rhythm, it can be really horrible. Cutler was out of rhythm because his receivers were having trouble creating space, and he was just all over the place. Cutler's a daring young quarterback with a cannon-arm, but among other young gunslingers, like Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger, Cutler makes the most consistently puzzling decisions when he's under pressure. He was flat-out garbage on Sunday. He didn't lose the game for the Broncos, but he sure as hell helped. Second of all, Johnny Lee Higgins is just about the best thing the Raiders have going offensively. He scored on yet another long return. Third, the Raiders took advantage of field position, whether it was from turnovers, or special teams, or penalties, or just good defense.

Mostly, though, it looked to me like Denver expected this to be a cakewalk, and when they were punched in the mouth early, they folded like lawn furniture. It disgusts me that a team from the AFC West will "win" that "division" and go to the playoffs. The NFL should pick the out-of-division team with the best record against the AFC West and give them dominion over the division. If that team is already in the playoffs, they should go to the next team, and so on until they find someone from elsewhere in the NFL to fill that final playoff spot.

Atlanta over Carolina, 45-28
My Pick: Atlanta over Carolina, 23-20
This Falcons team really makes me believe that anyone drawing a paycheck to play in the NFL is good enough to be a solid part of a good team in the NFL. It seems like Mike Smith has managed to squeeze every drop of potential out of these guys, and whatever magic he's working over there, I'd love to see how it's done. Another thing that really impresses me about this Falcons team is the way it seems like they're never either too up for a big game or too flat against a sorry opponent. I don't know, there are lots of candidates for Coach of the Year this season, but after Atlanta's week 12 demolition of division-leading Carolina, I think it'd take something enormous for anybody to overtake Smith. It's just incredible what he's done with this franchise.

Another rookie stepped up big in this one, seldom used rookie receiver Harry Douglas, who had a big run, a big return, and a couple of big catches. He also had a silly penalty, but we'll forgive him.

And folks, folks, Michael Turner, folks. What a baller. 117 yards and 4 touchdowns, including a clutch 3 yard run on a ballsy 4th and goal call in the fourth quarter that extended Atlanta's lead to 10. Matt Ryan is playing very well, and that's great, but the one potential downside of his strong play is that it's deflecting attention away from what would otherwise be considered a very strong MVP case Turner is making for himself. His numbers are outstanding, but most importantly, on a young team coming off a disastrous 2007 season, with a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach, he gives their offense a foundation, a big fat pillar to build around. No matter what they get from Matt Ryan week to week, they know they can hand the ball to Turner 25 times and he'll give 'em something. Psychologically, that's got to play a huge role in this team's success.

As for Carolina, this wasn't too terrible a loss. They dropped into second place in the NFC South just when they were getting thrown into talk of playing for homefield throughout, but they're still in great shape for the playoffs. They played pretty well, too, at least on the offensive side of the ball. The Panthers outgained Atlanta, had fewer turnovers, and held onto the ball longer. Ultimately, the Falcons just made some great plays in the second half and kept Carolina in catch-up mode.

I should really hate the Falcons and Panthers, because right now they could stand in the way of Washington making the playoffs. The truth is, I think of Carolina as the best team in the South, and I can't possibly root against the Falcons. So all the animosity I ought to have for these teams is rolled up and slammed on the back of the Tampa Bay Bucs, a team I have no problem hating at all.

New York Giants over Arizona, 37-29
My Pick: New York Giants over Arizona, 34-24
The thing that separates great teams like New York from the pack is how they take care of the little things no matter who they're playing against and no matter who they have on the field. New York got 201 special teams yards from Domenik Hoxon and cashed in on all five opportunities they had to start drives in Arizona territory. That kind of thing puts enormous pressure on an opponent, especially one dealing with the psychological pressure of playing the 10-1 Super Bowl Champs. Arizona outgained the Giants and had fewer penalties; generally speaking, when a great home team outgains a road team and said road team commits 9 penalties and only rushes for 87 yards, you expect the home team to win, probably going away. But New York just has a knack for making those plays here and there that give them the edge and put the pressure on their opponent. In this game, Domenik Hixon supplied a lot of that edge.

It helps, also, when you hold the home team to 23 rushing yards and win the turnover battle 2-0. I like Tim Hightower, I'm okay with switching to him from Edgerrin James, but are we really sure this guy is an upgrade? You're telling me James couldn't have pounded out more than 21 yards on the ground? I'm not so sure. Sometimes you want a battle-tested veteran out there, and this could have been one of those times for Arizona. New York's defense is great and getting even better, but if you're a Cardinals fan, you can't be happy about the way this team continues to struggle to run the ball with even a little consistency. The Cardinals have been one of the NFL's worst, least explosive rushing teams in the NFL for a few years now. You hear this all the time, and almost never from me, but here it is: as the weather turns colder headed into the playoffs, teams that can't run the ball will be in trouble. Just ask the 2007 New England Patriots.

On the other side, if you're a Giants fan, hey, you've gotta love what you saw from Eli Manning. That was one sharp outing right there. 26 of 33 with 3 scores and no turnovers - great production on the road in a really tough place to play. And the win and especially the offensive production are all the more impressive considering who wasn't on the field; both Brandon Jacobs and Plaxico Burress missed the game. Winning without Jacobs, especially in this fashion, is pretty damn impressive. As for Burress, well, there's one receiver in football who's done more to diminish his value headed into this off-season, and it's that moron Chad Johnson. Burress has only had really two "incidents" in 2008, but how much clearer could it be that the Giants don't need him or his production to have a successful offense? From what I can tell, Eli Manning is not the sort of quarterback who can handle having to force-feed certain guys. He was crap, then they took away Jeremy Shockey, and he made significant strides. Now, this season, when Burress isn't out there, he's even better. There are quarterbacks in the NFL that can handle an outsized ego at receiver, but I think it's fair to say Eli isn't one of them. And you know what? He shouldn't have to. The guy won a Super Bowl and has led his team to a 10-1 record the following season.

I'm legitimately afraid of the Giants coming to Washington in week 13. I don't mind the Redskins losing. I've come full circle and returned to that happy place where I started the 2008 NFL season; I don't mind if they lose, I just want them to compete and be respectable. My concern, though, is that the Giants might deliver a brutal thumping on Sunday, and that would be a real shame.

Washington over Seattle, 20-17
My Pick: Washington over Seattle, 21-16
See how close I was? Pretty impressive, right?

And it turned out what I said at the end of my pick for this game was totally true; I was fully okay with the way this game played out. The Redskins won. They didn't look dominant, I don't care. They looked just like a team with a new offense and a rookie head coach would dream of looking. That's just great.

And what's more, they looked pretty close to hitting on a couple of things that could have really opened up the score a bit. Truth be told, the game was no where near as close as the final score. Matt Hasselbeck was friggin' terrible, just like I predicted. His two picks were just ridiculous. I'm not saying Matt Hasselbeck is a garbage quarterback . . . well, wait, actually, I am saying that. Matt Hasselbeck is totally, totally overrated. He's got a noodle arm, he doesn't handle pressure well at all, he whines and sulks when he isn't in love with his receivers, and his lack of confidence in his receiving corps has a dramatic effect on his play. If Hasselbeck were in New York and Plaxico Burress went down, he'd spend a week making subtle complaints to the media and then lay an epic stink-egg on Sunday. Hasselbeck didn't lose the game for Seattle, though. The whole offense was terrible. Seattle hit on a big run play, but other than that, it's not like they pounded the living shit out of Washington's defense. They ran the ball decently at best. Take out the 44 yard scamper in the first quarter, and you're talking about 85 total rushing yards. Seattle held the ball for only 21 minutes, for crying out loud.

Of course, I wasn't happy to see Jason Campbell take a few big hits early in the game, but once he settled down and was able to process things in the pocket for more than a half-second, he found a nice groove and played a fine game. Clinton Portis was a monster, again. Mike Sellers was over-the-top outstanding in every facet of the game. The defense could have been better, but they played pretty damn well, especially considering London Fletcher and Cornelius Griffin were both well below full strength. All in all, it was a solid win. I'll take it.

It's funny how both of these teams probably have good reason to piss themselves headed into week 13. Seattle has to go to Dallas for what is sure to be a comical blow-out, and Washington gets to host the Giants, who look pretty much untouchable right now. I'm not ready to deny either team a shot in hell of pulling off an upset, but it doesn't look good.

Indianapolis over San Diego, 23-20
My Pick: San Diego over Indianapolis, 24-23
I didn't watch this game, and I'm not surprised Indy won, and I can't imagine anybody out there really is either. I suppose people will continue to excuse away San Diego's season instead of focusing on the fact that they dropped yet another must-win game at home. This time they'll get the pass because it was a last minute field goal that did 'em in. "Man, this team has no luck at all!" Let's see if Norv Turner can come up with a call or two to use to blame the officials.

I don't really have much at all to say about the Sunday-nighter, but I'll go ahead and say this: Tony Dungy showed some real guts in going for it on fourth down twice, once in scoring position and a second time near midfield at the end of the game. That second one was just incredibly gutsy. If the Colts failed there, the Chargers get the ball at mid-field with enough time left to possibly hit an outside route and kick a long field goal. And you can't possibly say enough for Peyton Manning, who completed his fifth game winning drive of the season. With his team in shambles around him and he himself still hobbled from off-season surgeries, this guy has pretty much single-handedly kept his team hanging around in the wild-card picture. Now that they're getting a little bit healthy, at least on offense, they're still in position to make a run. It's an impressive story.

New Orleans over Green Bay, 51-29
My Pick: Green Bay over New Orleans, 34-23
That's it, I'm done with the Packers. Screw 'em. And I'm done with the Saints. It just about ruined my day when I heard someone say the Saints are "still alive" this morning on the radio. These two teams are so friggin' false, I can't stand it.

So congratulations, Drew Brees, on your pursuit of Dan Marino's single season passing yardage record. Your team is totally phony, you're not even serious enough to be called a pretender, and the Saints are pretty easily one of the two most frustrating teams in the NFL.

And as for the Packers, holy fucking shit. 51 points? Sixth ranked passing defense, my ass. I guess it helps when you play the Bears, Vikings, and Lions twice each. Gimme a break. And Ryan Grant is the biggest piece of crap runningback ever. Aaron Rodgers leads the Green Bay Packers in rushing touchdowns with four. Four.

What a disgrace.


No extras today. I might have time later in the week to put something together. I know I said the same thing last week and then flaked out, but it's a short week and I've got shit to do.

Peace!