And off we go:
Oakland @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 7
I'm intrigued by this game. I'm interested to see whether Tom Cable can coax a serious effort out of this team in as hostile an environment as Baltimore, against this level of defensive pressure, in a 1pm game all the way across the country.
That traveling East thing makes this one a little easier to call, doesn't it? I've got to think the kind of team you don't want to face at 1oam on Sunday morning is the kind that kicks you in the groin, starts air-humping you like a horny dog when you bend over in agony, then finishes you off with a vicious uppercut. And that's what Baltimore's defense will try to do to a tired Oakland team: they'll try to own them and punish them. It could be ugly.
So for Baltimore to win, they need to continue to stuff the run, they need to keep Oakland from hitting any big plays, and they need to limit their turnovers. This one won't be about pressuring Jamarcus Russell or hitting any big plays, but about controlling time of possession, winning the battle of field position, and waiting for a short field or a turnover to make the difference. I don't see this Oakland team doing too much under such brutal travel conditions, they're bound to implode.
And it's impossible to diagnose how the Raiders could possibly pull it off, but if it's going to happen, it's going to happen the exact same way the Ravens might do it. Control the line of scrimmage, play on a short field, stuff the run, wait for a turnover. This might be that rare slow, ugly slugfest that is actually fun to watch, because that's how the teams are supposed to be playing.
Or, it could be a Minnesota/Chicago style horror show. Let's hope not. Ultimately, I like Baltimore in a low-scoring affair. It's also possible the Ravens could run away with it if the Raiders do end up imploding, but I'm predicting a more quiet affair.
Ravens over Raiders, 16-10
Arizona @ Carolina
The Line: Carolina by 4.5
Is this the week Arizona gets going on the road? This is a huge match-up, and in the best way, too: sometimes match-ups are huge because the winning team gets to continue to contend, and the loser is officially toast. Those are huge but almost always depressing in the end. This is huge because a loss isn't necessarily too bad for either team, but both teams have a chance to make a statement, gain a little swagger, position themselves a little better for the playoff chase, and increase their lead within their division. I'm looking forward to it.
Carolina's secondary has been outstanding this season, and they'll need it to stay that way, because Arizona has a serious passing attack. Carolina's second-ranked passing defense against Arizona's second-ranked passing offense . . . what could be better? Arizona will need the ground game in this one, especially if Julius Peppers plays like he did against New Orleans on Sunday. The Cardinals will need Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower to pound out some yards, if only to keep Carolina's pass-rush from getting to Kurt Warner too consistently. On the road, if Warner takes a few too many shots early in this game, it could be real ugly. We're talking Cardinals/Jets ugly, 6 turnovers ugly. This could be one of those games where every time the Cardinals dial up a pass play, we get a good look at the whites of Warner's eyes as he goes into full shut-down mode under pressure. I hope not!
As for Carolina, I suppose the script is pretty simple, actually. They've got a good running game and the ability to hit some big plays. As with all Carolina games, they need to limit turnovers. The bad news is Arizona's defense is built to apply pressure on the passer and force turnovers. This is also a bit of a perfect storm because Arizona might be the NFL's best awful road team, and Carolina has previously been the NFL's best awful home team.
I can't pick with the Cardinals on the road, not against a 5-2 Panthers team that just de-pantsed an equally prolific passing attack in week 7. I think the Panthers will win, but there's still an opportunity for Arizona to make a statement, if they come in and fight to the death. Man, I really hope this one lives up to potential.
Panthers over Cardinals, 28-24
Tampa Bay @ Dallas
The Line: Dallas by 3.5
It might be a bit early to pick this one, to be honest. The whole nature of this contest changes if Tony Romo plays.
There are a few certainties: no matter who starts at quarterback, somebody on Dallas's roster will be tossing an interception in this game, and they'll probably lose a fumble, too. Not just because they apparently treat their quarterback's hands with grease before every game in Dallas, but because Tampa's pass rush is fearsome and their Tampa-2 is in high-gear at the moment. The combination of Dallas's proclivity for losing silly turnovers and Tampa's strength at forcing quarterbacks to make tough throws is bound to lead to at least two turnovers from the quarterback position for Dallas. Check that one off right now. So here's the real question: can Dallas overcome two turnovers and win this game? In order for that to happen, they'll need to a) run the ball very well, b) sustain and finish drives, c) stuff Tampa's offense, and d) force a few turnovers of their own. I feel okay about their ability to run the ball at home against Tampa, provided they actually commit in more than a token sense to the running game before the game is out of reach, owing mostly to the fact that their offensive line will have perhaps as big a size and strength advantage over Tampa's front seven as they'll have all season. They'll need to run the ball straight ahead, otherwise their size and strength is negated by Tampa's overwhelming speed advantage. Sustaining drives will come all the way down to running the ball successfully. Can they stuff Tampa's offense? Maybe. I'm not sold on Tampa's offense, and I don't expect Jon Gruden to use the ground game appropriately or successfully in a game of this magnitude. I don't see Dallas forcing many turnovers, mostly because Jeff Garcia doesn't turn the ball over.
But how long will Jerry Jones sit still on the Roy Williams trade before pressure starts to come down on Dallas's coaches to get him involved in the offense? That's another sub-plot of this game: I don't see Jones letting another week go by without unwrapping his shiny new toy and taking it out for a spin.
I see Dallas winning this game. I'm still not ready to write them all the way off, not just yet. Thing is, that Tampa-2 is a real sonofabitch, especially for teams that are used to passing the ball a lot and use a lot of crossing stuff over the middle of the field. Dallas is also in a very fragile state right now, I think everyone on the team senses the noose around Wade Phillips' neck. It's too much for me to pick them to drop another home game, not one they need so badly, but again, it's a game I'll be keeping a close eye on come Sunday.
Cowboys over Bucs, 20-17
Washington @ Detroit
The Line: Washington by 8.5
I feel better about this game than I did the last two. Part of that is obviously because, no matter how bad the Rams and Browns were headed into weeks 6 and 7, the Lions are that much worse. The other part of it is that I'm strangely confident that the Redskins are, right now, a better road team than home team.
The mental part of getting ready to play on the road might be easier for a team that is still trying to get its legs under it in a new offense. You're always prepared for a big fight on the road. You're always desperate. You'll always take what the defense gives you. You'll always hammer away on the ground, and there's no pressure from the fans in the stands to mix it up. A 3-point road win is a good thing, whereas a 3-point home win can be a disappointment. I don't think it's a coincidence that the Redskins played their two best games of the season on the road. I feel supremely confident that the Redskins will go into Detroit with an appropriately cagey mindset, especially after two tougher-than-expected home games against roadkill garbage.
It helps, of course, to know that the Lions can barely stay out of their own way of late. Whatever meager success they had against Houston's up-and-down defense will simply not carry over into a game against as feisty a unit as Washington's. Another full week of continuity with Dan Orlovsky under center should be a good thing for them, but I don't think it's enough to make headway against a defense that has now shut down former Pro-Bowlers Marc Bulger, Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, and Drew Brees, and Super Bowl MVPs Eli Manning and Kurt Warner. Not to put too fine a point on it here, but Detroit's is the worst offense the Redskins have faced by far this season, and Washington's defense is already ranked sixth overall in the NFL. Home or no, Detroit is an abysmal team.
So Washington needs to move the ball on offense and finish drives. They've got to avoid killer turnovers and penalties. If they put 20 or more points on the board and don't commit any brutal, Pete Kendall-style turnovers, this should be as easy a win as they'll have all season. I don't see a way in hell Detroit puts more than, say, 17 points up without significant help from the Redskins, and that's being very, very optimistic about Detroit's offense.
So there you have it.
Redskins over Lions, 21-14
Buffalo @ Miami
The Line: Buffalo by 1.5
Now here's a game I could see Buffalo losing. They haven't looked especially good on the road this season, and Miami is about as unorthodox a challenge as they're likely to face all season. The Dolphins need this win, and it's their second straight home game. This is the first of three straight division contests for the Bills, and this is probably the least meaningful for them. The Jets are closer in the standings and have the prolific quarterback. The Patriots . . . well, we know all about that. The Dolphins? Last year's doormat? The team at the bottom of the division? I won't say it's necessarily a trap game (because when is a division game a trap?), but I do feel confident saying there's a lot more to motivate the Dolphins in this game than the Bills.
Picking this game comes down to putting trust in the Bills. Do I believe in their 5-1 start? I keep feeling like I can put that determination off another week. Sooner or later, though, I'll have to give them all the credit they deserve for their record. For some reason, I feel like I'm waiting for them to come back to earth a little, and then I'll say "these are the Bills, I finally know who they really are." But that's bullshit, right? They only get to be who they really are if they are who I expected them to be all along? What if I'm wrong?
Know what? I owe it to 'em. Call this one an emotional pick. I feel like I've done a disservice to the Bills, much the way a lot of folks have been waiting for the Redskins to be who they "really" are. It's bull. Win football games, play well, get some credit.
Bills over Dolphins, 24-21
St. Louis @ New England
The Line: New England by 7
I will be amazed beyond description if the Rams win this game. I won't be too surprised if they make a contest out of it, only because I still don't feel like I really know who these Patriots are. Still, winning 3 straight under a new coach, with 2 of those wins on the road against pretty good teams, that might be too much to ask of the Rams. If it happens, Jim Haslett might overtake Jim Zorn, Mike Smith, Tony Sparano, John Harbaugh, and Dick Jauron as Coach of the Year.
That pretty much sums up how outside the realm of possibility a Rams win in this game really is. Expect a brutal domination.
Patriots over Rams, 31-17
San Diego vs. New Orleans @ London
The Line: San Diego by 3
Who knows how to call this kind of thing? What a shame that anybody should have to play a "home game" across the Atlantic Ocean in a stadium that, in a million years, couldn't be considered a home venue for any NFL football team.
Ummmmm . . . Saints win!
Saints over Chargers, 23-21
Kansas City @ New York Jets
The Line: New York Jets by 13
How lovely, that the NFL served up the Chiefs to this awful Jets team just in time to make everyone forget how piss poor they were on the road in Oakland in week 7.
And who fuckin' knows how the Chiefs can win this game, and who cares anyway. Brett Favre is nothing if not a front-runner, so he should ring up some absurd numbers in this one.
Jesus. Who cares.
Jets over Chiefs, 45-13
Atlanta @ Philadelphia
The Line: Philadelphia by 9
Philly by 9! Wow! Still getting a lot of credit in Vegas for a team that doesn't seem to give a shit about wins and losses.
I would so love for Atlanta to win this game. I'm done with Philly. I've moved on. I'm ready for Atlanta to make a big-time statement and suddenly become an uh-oh, oh-shit type of contender in the NFC South. Both teams should be healthy, rested, and well-prepared. The only thing is, how do you prepare a rookie quarterback for Jim Johnson's crazy-ass defense? Matt Ryan might be in for a real beating on Sunday.
As for Philly, this is a game they should win, it's a game they should dominate, and if you're an Eagles fan, that's why you should be very, very worried about week 8. Against oil-slicks, you can depend on the Eagles to deliver a whupping. Against very good teams, whether on the road or at home, you can expect the Eagles to compete like there's no tomorrow. For whatever reason, middle-of-the-road teams bring out the yawning, entitled assholes on this team, and Atlanta is exactly that kind of team. I can already see McNabb smirking at Matt Ryan and the Falcons, at their success, at all the hype. I don't mean to dump it all on McNabb, but you can bet he'll be the guy at the podium belittling Atlanta's achievement if the Falcons somehow do pull it off.
If you're Mike Smith, hey, run the ball, man. Run it a lot. You've got two very strong young runningbacks in Atlanta, cut 'em loose. Like Jim Zorn said, Jim Johnson has a way of making opposing passing attacks look really stupid, and I'd hate to be a rookie quarterback trying to make pre-snap reads against that mess. If Atlanta can figure out a way to run the ball successfully, they could pull it off. It's a long shot, though.
As for Philly, it's critical they not look past any team at this point. They're at the bottom of the NFC East and already seem like the victim. If the Cowboys weren't racing down towards them, they might already be out of the running in the division. They need every single game right now. They need something more than a beautifully scripted opening drive on offense. This Atlanta team has been too competitive, too scrappy to think you can dispose of them with one sharp possession.
Ultimately, I do think the Eagles find a way to get this win. I'll be very interested in this game on Sunday.
Eagles over Falcons, 27-20
Cleveland @ Jacksonville
The Line: Jacksonville by 7
For whatever reason, I see this one as a bloodbath, a feeding frenzy. From the moment I looked at it on this week's schedule (about 90 minutes ago), I've had a feeling Jacksonville is going to kick the living shit out of the Browns and send them home bruised and broken.
I just want to get that out there, because I think seven points is a very charitable line for the Browns. They only lost by three in Washington on Sunday, but let's not forget the following: 1. they gave up 175 yards to Clinton Portis, and 2. Derek Anderson played about as poorly as I've ever seen a starting NFL quarterback play. If I'd missed last season, I'm not sure you could convince me at all that Anderson had been a Pro Bowl player. Now, Jacksonville is nowhere near as good as the Redskins, but they've had a bye week to prepare and the Browns can't be feeling too confident about themselves, not after they played so poorly and were so out of sync on Sunday that their quarterback and fullback got into a shoving match on the field.
No, I see Jacksonville moving the ball at will against the Browns, and I see the Jaguars taking advantage of Anderson's inaccuracy to much greater effect than the Redskins. I really do think this'll be a laugher. If I'm wrong, I'll feel pretty silly about it.
Jaguars over Browns, 28-10
Cincinnati @ Houston
The Line: Houston by 9.5
What an outstanding opportunity for Houston to notch a third straight win and creep even closer to .500. Three weeks ago, did anybody think this team would get close to .500 this season?
And there really isn't much to say about this contest. Houston's offense is probably way too much for Cincinnati's horrible defense, and Cincinnati has not recently been a team that travels well. Will Carson Palmer play? Who cares. As if this guy is the kind of quarterback that can lead this mess out of the gutter.
I see Matt Schaub having another excellent game, I see Steve Slaton breaking off another few big plays, and I see Owen Daniels and Andre Johnson each getting loose in Cincinnati's secondary. I don't think it's impossible that Cincinnati hangs tough, but they're not the kind of team that wins road games.
Texans over Bangals, 31-20
New York Giants @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh by 3
A monster of a game. This is week 8's gift to football fans, a meeting of two of the top 5 or 6 teams in football.
Pittsburgh's homefield advantage is significant. Not only are their fans outstanding, but the field itself is a very difficult obstacle for visiting teams. All three points of Pittsburgh's line, and maybe a few more, come from the homefield advantage. With as poorly as Eli Manning has played in New York's last two games, it's very possible the Steelers will pressure him into a total collapse. Pittsburgh's defense is a beast, a snarling monster. It would not be out of the question for Manning to have a full-blown meltdown, a 45% passing 4 interception type of game.
On the other hand, you've got something of a perfect storm in the pairing of Pittsburgh's flat-out terrible pass-protection versus New York's special pass-rush. Ben Roethlisberger could be in big trouble as well.
The winner of this game goes into week 9 looking like the class of the NFL, no matter what Tennessee does Monday night against the Colts. I could see this game going down any number of ways. There's every chance it'll be an ugly, heavywieght slugfest, especially if the 53-degree, few showers/wind forecast holds up. It's possible Pittsburgh runs away with it; I still see New York as being a vulnerable team, especially with Eli out of sync and forcing the ball to Plaxico Burress far too often. I suppose it's possible New York dominates, although I don't think it's too likely, unless the Steelers are forced to pass very often and their line doesn't hold up. And it's even possible both teams light it up and we get a high-scoring game, although windy/rainy/cool conditions in a venue that typically grounds even the most explosive offenses make that seem unlikely.
How much does that home field mean? On a neutral site, I suppose I'd give the edge right now to New York, but probably not by more than say 4 or 5 points. And Heinz field might be the only venue in football that is worth as much as 10 points, maybe more. I guess I'm going Pittsburgh.
Steelers over Giants, 23-19
Seattle @ San Francisco
The Line: San Francisco by 4.5
I have no idea what to make of this game. None. I could see it going any of a million different ways. I'm hoping, really hoping, that Mike Singletary is able to look good in his head coaching debut. I hope the defense shows up and performs. I hope he reigns in the offense a bit.
I happen to think Seattle is actually the better team, even as banged up as they are. Though their defense has been crap, it's still got some playmaking talent, and they've still got a fearsome pass-rush, at least on paper.
Shoot. I've got to root for the 49ers, as much as I can't stand that franchise and I loathe Mike Martz, because I like Mike Singletary and I want him to do well. Plus they're at home, so I've got an excuse for picking them. Well, many excuses, not the least of which is how truly terribly the Seahawks have been this season.
Also, this might be the worst primetime match-up all season. What a stinker.
49ers over Seahawks, 20-14
Indianapolis @ Tennessee
The Line: Tennessee by 4
Not only can't I pick the Colts in this one, I also can't pick them to make it close. They were just nightmarishly bad on Sunday against a Packers team that right now couldn't hold Albert Haynesworth's jock-strap.
And to be honest, that's all I have to say about this match-up.
Titans over Colts, 24-17
These picks are a bit lack-luster. I didn't want to put it off until I felt more excited about doing it, only because I might not ever feel more excited about doing it, and then I'd still have some boring, sucky picks, only like 48 hours later. I might come back and have a thing or two to say about week 8 later in the week, but these are my picks, and they aren't changing.
Go Skynards!
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Week 7: The Anti-Week 6
Week 6 was all about incredible finishes in close, hard-fought, entertaining games. Week 7 was all about totally lopsided, unwatchable, depressing clobberings. The average margin of victory in 1pm games was 17 points. 17 points!
Here we go:
Baltimore over Miami, 27-13
My Pick: Miami over Baltimore, 20-17
Odd game here. This one was actually a whole lot closer than the final score, and Miami shouldn't feel too bad about the loss. How about this: Miami had more total yards, fewer penalties, just as many turnovers, and almost the same time of possession. The difference? Miami's one turnover, Chad Pennington's hideously poor decision to throw the ball with a defender on his back, went back for a score. Really, that's what the game came down to. Down the stretch, Miami had to play from 2 scores back because they gave up a defensive touchdown early in the game. Though they played Baltimore pretty much to a draw all afternoon and had homefield, the result of Miami's lone turnover pretty much decided this one.
As for Baltimore, hey, that's a legitimately great win for them. Joe Flacco was pretty much outstanding, completing 17 of 23 passes for 230 yards and a score. Willis McGahee ran the ball very well. The defense was outstanding. Baltimore has been close in a lot of their games this season, it's got to feel great to get another win and get that losing streak over and done with. They've got a shot to string some wins together here if they can continue to protect the football, produce on the ground, and play great defense. Up next they host Oakland, then go to Cleveland, then go to Houston. They shouldn't be especially afraid of any of those teams, not with their defense's ability to keep most games within a few points.
New York Giants over San Francisco, 29-17
My Pick: New York Giants over San Francisco, 27-13
It wasn't as bad as it could have been, or maybe as it should have been, but it was apparently bad enough to get Mike Nolan fired as head coach of the 49ers. Good riddance. And a great move by San Francisco's ownership to promote Mike Singletary over Mike Martz. Singletary might not have a lot of credibility yet as a head coach, but I have a hunch he's willful enough and has enough rope with ownership to demand that the offense feature a stronger emphasis on the ground game and protecting the quarterback. Perhaps we'll talk more about that in the week 8 picks.
As for this game, I have to get this out of the way: something stinks on New York's offense, and I think it's the combination of Kevin Gilbride and Plaxico Burress. By my unofficial count, Eli Manning completed 11 of 19 throws to everyone not named Plaxico Burress and only 3 of 13 to Mr. Burress himself. First of all, why is Eli Manning attempting about 40% of his passes in the direction of one receiver? Second of all, why would 40% of his throws go in the direction of a guy he's clearly having no success actually getting the ball to? This is maddening, and it makes me overwhelmingly grateful that the Redskins don't have one of these "elite" receivers on the team. Eli Manning was damn near perfect in the one game he played without Plaxico Burress on the field, and in the two games since his return, Eli's been garbage.
Also, Ahmad Bradshaw is an exciting little runner, he can do some things in space. Brandon Jacobs is an enormous monster and might just be the most intimidatingly physical downhill runner since Earl Campbell. Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled the ball twice in nine touches in this game. Brandon Jacobs was averaging over 4 yards per touch in a relatively close game. Can someone explain to me why Ahmad Bradshaw was getting the bulk of touches down the stretch of this game? Or maybe why Eli Manning spent so much time in the shotgun late in the third and into the fourth quarter? Why Brandon Jacobs only carried the ball 17 times? For the record, I hate the way Kevin Gilbride calls plays, and I hate the way he uses his personnel. He might be the only weak link on a Giants team that might otherwise be the best in the NFL.
As for the 49ers, J.T. O'Sullivan has now been sacked 29 times through 7 games. Last season, San Francisco's offense was awful, their passing attack was a joke, and their offensive line gave up a league-leading 55 sacks. This season, not only are they on pace to blow past that achievement, they've actually given up 10 more sacks than any other team in football. So first of all, what made the good people running this organization think that an offensive line that had tied for worst in the NFL in pass protection in 2007 would be able to hold up in Mike Martz's offense? And second of all, why is Mike Martz so stuck in this one-trick offense that he wouldn't consider adjusting for the fact that he pretty clearly doesn't have an offensive line that can protect in his system? For the last time, and I mean it, unless somebody else hires the guy down the road, why in the hell is Mike Martz employed in the NFL?
I'm thinking the 49ers will keep Martz around through the end of the season just for the sake of continuity, and then he and O'Sullivan will be gone.
Chicago over Minnesota, 48-41
My Pick: Minnesota over Chicago, 20-18
Never have two more incompetent teams combined for 89 points in a football game. I hated this game. I still hate it. In fact, from now on, I'm going to go ahead and pre-emptively hate every Minnesota/Chicago matchup, forever.
First of all, Minnesota, what the fuck. I'd like to thank Chris Kluwe and Minnesota's punt team for executing what was easily the worst, most disasterous play of the 2008 NFL season so far, making us all forget about Pete Kendall's epic meltdown only a week earlier. Cluwe let a perfect snap bounce off his hands, then punted the ball directly into the chest of a Chicago defender. After it landed right at his feet, instead of just falling on it, this moron tries to place kick it upfield, as if that's going to accomplish anything, but it ends up in the arms of an onrushing Chicago defender, who easily returns it for a score. Know what? Things like this don't happen to good or well-coached teams. Minnesota has given up 5 special teams touchdowns already this season. That was one of 2 on the day.
As for Chicago, look: I think we can say for sure now that Kyle Orton should be Chicago's starting quarterback for a while. He looks great out there. But Minnesota's pass defense is flat out terrible. And Chicago's playcalling, especially down the stretch, was hilariously brainless. 3rd and short, late in the game, one-score lead, why not call a reverse? Jesus Christ. Next time, how about a statue of liberty?
Looking ahead, it's easy for me to now envision the Bears sticking around and making a race out of this disaster of a division. They've figured out how to throw the ball around. They've got a good runner. The defense is capable of playing well (just apparently not against the Vikings). I'm happy for them.
Minnesota, on the other hand, ought to be looking for a new head coach.
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, 38-10
My Pick: Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, 35-17
Ouch. And I mean it.
Hines Ward effing devastated Cincinnati rookie linebacker Keith Rivers with a blind first quarter crack-block, broke the kid's jaw, and ended his season. Ouch.
Cincinnati gave it all they had. That was the really sad part. Honestly, they played about as well as I think they can with this group. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a pulse and managed to avoid turning the ball over too many times. Chris Henry was productive for the first time this season. Chad Johnson caught a touchdown pass. They still couldn't run the ball for shit, but they damn near tied Pittsburgh in time of possession and they only had 4 penalties. Those are the kinds of small victories you'll have to live with in Cincinnati these days. To put things in perspective, my wife and I are considering a trip to Cincinnati on December 14th to watch the Redskins play. It'll be a cheaper way to watch the Redskins win in front of a mostly pro-Redskins crowd.
Boy, Pittsburgh sure took care of business. It wasn't flashy, but it was decisive as hell, a precise, efficient, cold-hearted demolition of a division foe. Yes, the Bengals are bad, yes, the Steelers will have a lot more impressive wins throughout the season, but this was a good win. You get extra points for throttling a division opponent you're supposed to beat.
Carolina over New Orleans, 30-7
My Pick: New Orleans over Carolina, 31-26
I'm running out of steam here. I can't come up with a lot to say about a slate of games that were either poorly played on both sides, or really poorly played on one side. You know how this one turned out: New Orleans had no business being out there. No business!
I guess that's a wrap for the 2008 New Orleans Saints. Not that I expect them to fold it up and mail it in from here on, but seriously, at 3-4, having just been flat-out crushed by a division opponent in what was easily their most important game of the season, with Reggie Bush now out for a while, they're cooked. And I'd like to point out that I put Jammal Brown on my Pro Bowl ballot after it became clear that Jordon Gross hadn't deserved the nod, and then Brown went out and got de-souled by Julius Peppers in the most one-sided individual match-up since Johnny Depp was turned into a fountain of gore by Freddy Kruger in A Nightmare on Elm Street. Peppers only had one sack, but damn if Drew Brees won't be waking up every night for a month in a cold sweat with phantom bruises all over his body.
Maybe Carolina can keep this going. Probably not. I'm ready to call them the Jacksonville Jaguars of the NFC: the most sure thing in football is picking them to lose ugly the week after a big win.
St. Louis over Dallas, 34-14
My Pick: Dallas over St. Louis, 24-14
I don't have a whole lot to say about this game, but let me start here: I really hate the Cowboys. More than ever. I hate that team. Nothing disgusts me like the sight of a bunch of silver-pants-wearing assholes standing on the sidelines smirking through an ugly loss, and that's exactly who these Cowboys are: a bunch of assholes doing their best to disavow and disassociate themselves from a poor performance. I hate this team.
As for the Rams, hey, 2-0 under Jim Haslett, two straight wins over NFC East teams, two straight very solid defensive performances. Also, I'll take Donnie Avery on my team any day. And Oshiomogho Atogwe. That guy has 3 turnovers in two games. Stephen Jackson ran well, Marc Bulger threw the ball well, the team was appropriately committed to the ground game, and the defense did a hell of a job. Great win for them. Wouldn't it be a giant spiked dick in the NFC West's pansy ass if the Rams made a contest out of that horror of a division? Go St. Louis!
Tennessee over Kansas City, 34-10
My Pick: Tennessee over Kansas City, 17-0
What a mockery of organized football the Kansas City Chiefs have become. Fuck! This goddamn week 7 recap is putting me in the worst mood!
1. The Chiefs were really, really heated about a field goal they felt was called wrong in the first half. That's hilariously funny. In case anybody didn't notice, they gave up 34 points at home and totally bullshitted their way into avoiding a shut-out loss coming off of their bye week. They're the worst team in football, at this point I'm not actually sure they don't have their helmets on backwards, nor am I any longer certain any practice or coaching is taking place during the week between games, and they're worried about a hooked field goal. Give me an effing break. They should be ashamed of themselves.
2. Out of the bye week, at home, against the best defense in the NFL and the league's sole undefeated team, without your best offensive player, who should you start at quarterback if you're serious about trying to win the game? Option A: Damon Huard, a 12 year veteran and the only quarterback who has been anything close to decent on this abysmal Kansas City team, or Option B: Brodie Croyle, a young guy who can't stay healthy and hasn't ever played well in this offense? Well, if you're Herm Edwards, and your goal isn't actually to try to win the game, but rather to make some sort of statement about sportsmanship, or playing the game the right way, or fundamentals, or leadership, or toughness, or some other crock of shit that's been utterly lost on anybody not named Herm Edwards for as long as this guy has been allowed to ruin NFL franchises, obviously you go with Brodie Croyle. See, it's not so much about winning as it is about taking steps in the . . . umm . . . wrong direction. Because, clearly, coming out of the bye week against an undefeated juggernaut with a truly dangerous defense, in front of an exhausted, shell-shocked crowd desperate for something to be optimistic about, that's the best time to have a try-out at the quarterback position. What a fucking joke.
And the Titans just keep on rolling.
One more thing: holding aside, for the moment, the fact that the Chiefs gave up 332 rushing yards on the day, I'd like to talk about how effing terrible their run defense actually might be. See, here's the thing: Clinton Portis has now had 8 20+ yard carries on the season. Portis might not be the fastest back in the NFL, but he can scoot. He also leads the league in carries. In all those carries, and with all those 20+ yard runs, the guy's long carry on the season is 31 yards. Prior to Sunday's game against the Chiefs, you know how many 20 yard carries LenDale White had? Zero. Not one. His longest run of the season going into Sunday was 17 yards. LenDale White might be the slowest player to carry a football on offense this season. When you give up an 80-yard touchdown run to LenDale White, you aren't just bad at stopping the run, you've actually become a weapon for the opposing offense. LenDale White needs a conveyor belt to outrun my grandmother. He actually lost 18 pounds on that one play. To put into perspective how long it takes LenDale White to run 80 yards, he just now crossed the goalline.
Buffalo over San Diego, 23-14
My Pick: Buffalo over San Diego, 28-24
San Diego didn't want any part of this game. This was a contest down the stretch, but I never had the sense the Chargers were really all that into the game, never had the sense they cared too much, never felt like they were up for mustering a come-from-behind effort.
Can I just say I hate the endzone fade? I hate that play. More often than not, when it has worked, it's because a receiver made a miraculous catch. It's a stupid play. The Bills ran it and it worked because Lee Evans was able to use his helmet in the act of securing the ball. I can't stand that play.
I don't really have much more to say about this. The Chargers were never going to win this game. Now they get to play the Disappointing Bowl in London, where 90,000 cheery Brits will be treated to 3 hours of atrociously poor football between two teams who've run themselves out of contention. Great!
Houston over Detroit, 28-21
My Pick: Houston over Detroit, 35-10
Houston's offense was strong, Detroit's defense was bad. Dan Orlovsky managed to not run out of the back of the endzone in this one, so that's something. He needed a 96 yard catch and run from Calvin Johnson to get some respectable numbers, but he actually didn't play so poorly. They're just so, so, so piss poor. I mean, c'mon. They held the ball for fewer than 20 minutes in this game. I have trouble pulling off that kind of time of possession domination in Madden, and most of my players are rated 95 and above!
What more can I say? This wasn't really ever a one-score game. Detroit deserves some credit for only losing by a touchdown, I suppose.
Green Bay over Indianapolis, 34-14
My Pick: Indianapolis over Green Bay, 30-28
What the hell happened in the NFL this week? Good teams don't lose like this! New Orleans goes on the road in their division and gets stomped by Carolina. Dallas goes on the road and gets clobbered by the Rams. Denver goes to New England and gets completely erased by the Patriots. Indy goes into Green Bay and is just leveled by the Packers. What happened to good football? Is it really possible that New Orleans, Indianapolis, Denver, and Dallas can be added to the list of bad football teams this season? Those teams are a combined 14-13, not one of them is more than a game removed from .500. Can it be that .500 teams in the NFL are this bad in 2008? What the hell? And where are the good teams to balance that out? If the really bad teams (Oakland, Kansas City, Detroit, Cincinnati, Seattle, etc.) are a tier below the Indy/Dallas/New Orleans/Denver pack, shouldn't there be another tier, say, a few levels up from there, teams that are consistently crushing their opposition? I'm not seeing it!
Fucking Indy, stick a fork in those bastards. That window is completely shut. Green Bay is not the kind of team that should be blowing out any competent football teams. Peyton Manning was terrible in this game, throwing two touchdowns to the Packers, for crying out loud. He completed only 50% of his passes for about 5 yards an attempt. He was awful. He was the worst player on the field, and he wasn't sacked even once.
On the other side of the ball, hey, Ryan Grant had his first touchdown of the season and his first 100 yard game of the season, on about 3.5 yards a carry against the NFL's fourth worst run defense.
Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, was good. Despite what you might have heard when he was drafted, he's got something of a hose, and he throws a good looking ball. As far as the passing game goes, the Packers are in good shape. And Charles Woodson deserves a special nod for completely erasing Reggie Wayne. It was vintage Woodson, using the double-jam at the line of scrimmage, running with him stride for stride, locating the ball in mid-air, jumping routes, suffocating his man. He might be getting a bit long in the tooth, but this guy is still a serious cover corner.
Washington over Cleveland, 14-11
My Pick: Washington over Cleveland, 17-13
I had this one about pegged. I made a point of saying this game would do nothing to make me feel more confident entering week 8, but I was wrong. I feel significantly better about the Redskins than I did a week ago.
Really, it wasn't this close, nor should it have been this close. This should have been something like 21-3 or 17-3, and were it not for a brilliant play by a recovering Cleveland defensive back, it would have been. That 8-point swing off Clinton Portis's first fumble of the season made it look closer, made the outcome a bit less certain, made the final minutes of the game absolute torture, but it wasn't actually a very close game at all.
Special game balls to Derek Anderson, the first quarterback about whom I can honestly say I'm not sure he could throw a stone into the ocean, and Braylon Edwards, who couldn't have done more to derail his team's offense and torpedo his own quarterback without actually slitting the guy's throat. All that aside, though, the Redskins played about as well defensively as possible while not forcing a turnover and only recording a single sack. London Fletcher was awesome, and I love the way Washington's down linemen were getting their hands into the passing lanes and swatting down passes. It's little things like that that tell me Greg Blatche is doing a hell of a job with the defense. Well coached defenses make little plays like that.
And Clinton Portis was awesome again, maybe too awesome. I love the ground game, I'm ecstatic that he leads the league in rushing and that the offensive line is dominating the line of scrimmage so easily. On the other hand, I'm eager to see the Redskins put 30 on the board and win by more than a touchdown, and for that to happen, I'll need Jim Zorn to open up the passing game a bit. I understand his thinking right now, I can't say I blame him, and I honestly wouldn't advocate for him to actually change anything about the way he's calling offense these days, except maybe to remove any end-arounds from the playbook. He's got a big veteran offensive line and a shifty runningback who seems to be in a serious groove. His defense is dominating. Why take chances in the passing game? Well, here's why: because the Redskins lost to the Rams at home in week 6 and were within a late field goal of going to overtime against the Browns. Playing things safe when your running game is great and your defense is successfully keeping other teams out of the endzone is understandable, but when you play a lot of close games, you're bound to lose some.
Now, I've said that, and I would like to see some more explosiveness from Washington's offense, but I also have to say this: if Zorn wants to keep calling games this way indefinitely, I'm fine with that. The Redskins are 5-2 and look as good as any team in their conference. They've got another winnable road game up next and then a good chance to make a statement at home against a team they're going to need to be able to run the ball against the following Monday night. I'll take a win, or a chance to win, over a high-octane loss any day. Keep it up, Skynards!
Oakland over New York Jets, 16-13
My Pick: New York Jets over Oakland, 21-20
I blew this one. I thought Oakland might win, I though Brett Favre might suck, and then I played it stupidly when I thought I was playing it safe by taking Brett Favre, 3,000 miles from home, in a road game. Stupid, stupid, stupid, and it might be my last chance to nail an "upset" like this one. What a shame. I really do regret picking the Jets.
Neither team played well, no one player was especially good on either team. Both coaches were nauseatingly conservative in overtime.
Tampa Bay over Seattle, 20-10
My Pick: Tampa Bay over Seattle, 20-17
Ugly game. There's not much to say about it. I wish Seneca Wallace had played a bit better, I do think he can be a difference maker, even at quarterback.
New England over Denver, 41-7
My Pick: New England over Denver, 24-21
Denver sucks. I said so. Anybody who thought otherwise is either a homer, a Jay Cutler's balls-sucking idiot, or just plain doesn't know shit about football. Denver's defense is so bad I'm offended by it. When Cutler is under pressure or out of rhythm, he just chucks the ball up for grabs. It's embarrassing. He's no elite quarterback. He's the ring-leader of a circus act, a not-very-good one.
Great win for New England. They won't go quietly, will they? Buffalo and New England do business in weeks 10 and 17, and those might end up meaning something if New England can hang around for a while. Matt Cassel still doesn't really seem to know what to do under pressure, and how many times do you see a team win by 34 points when their quarterback is sacked 6 times? Seriously, how many people would believe you if you told them a 4-2 team would lose by 34 points when they sack the opposing quarterback 6 times in one half? That's exactly how bad the Broncos are.
Well, I went a nauseating 8-6 this week. Beyond that, I was really only close on a couple of games: Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, New York over San Francisco, and Washington over Cleveland. There'll be hell to pay for certain teams, like New Orleans and Indianapolis, when I do my week 8 picks. You don't go from me picking you on the road to losing by several touchdowns without paying a serious penalty the following week.
Here's a quickly scrapped together Top-to-Bottom Ranking of NFL teams:
Contenders
1. Tennessee Titans
They flattened the Chiefs in Arrowhead and are on a roll.
2. New York Giants
A convincing win over the 49ers at home. Now they've got a tough stretch: they go to Pittsburgh, then host the Cowboys, then go to Philadelphia. 2-1 though that stretch would be a major accomplishment.
3. Buffalo Bills
Hey, it was a good win over a "tough" San Diego team. They didn't look perfect, but Trent Edwards was excellent.
4. Washington Redskins
Made it a bit too tough on themselves, but a win is a win is a win.
Pretenders
5. Carolina Panthers
Steamrolled a division foe at home, shut down one of the NFL's best offenses. Good shit.
6. Pittsburgh Panthers
Penalized for having wins over Cincinnati, Cleveland, Baltimore, and Houston, and for having the most obvious flaw (pass protection) of any team in the top 6.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Solid, one-sided win over the lowly Seahawks helps them keep pace with the Panthers. I hate their offense and their coach, but they're doing the job.
Interesting
8. Arizona Cardinals
Tough at home, explosive on offense, and a bit spunky on defense. We'll see how they look coming out of the bye at Carolina, in one of week 8's best match-ups.
9. Atlanta Falcons
Getting great play at quarterback and in the running game. Right now, they look like a playoff contender.
Not Interesting At All
10. Chicago Bears
Put up some huge numbers at home against Minnesota, in one of the most embarrassing contests of the season.
11. New England Patriots
A dominating home performance, but there were obvious sore-spots. Plus, they did get blasted in San Diego.
12. Green Bay Packers
Huge, dominating home win over Indianapolis, but you can't ignore the consecutive ugly losses and the lack of a ground game.
13. Baltimore Ravens
A road win is a good win every time, and it's not like Miami is chopped liver, either. The Ravens can hang around.
Also-Ran
14. Jacksonville Jaguars
We'll learn a lot about the Jaguars in week 8, fresh off the bye, at home against the woeful Browns.
15. Houston Texans
That's right, you heard me. They're better than Indianapolis, better than Dallas, better than Philly, better than San Diego. They had a rough start to the season, but they can play.
Overrated Crap
16. Denver Broncos
Awful garbage masquerading as an explosive offense.
17. San Diego Chargers
Never mind the games, this is the best team in the NFL! The deepest! The most talented! Your 2008 Associated Press Champions, the San Diego Chargers!
18. Dallas Cowboys
Wake me when they grow a backbone and/or testicles.
Butsed Down, Burnt Out Shells
19. Indianapolis Colts
Good teams don't lose that way. They just don't.
20. New Orleans Saints
Good teams don't lose that way. They just don't.
21. Minnesota Vikings
A dissheveled mess. No pass defense, too many turnovers, and the worst special teams in the NFL.
Rotting Carcasses
22. New York Jets
A fraud of a team if ever there was one. They'll hang around just long enough to convince the sports media they had a good season, even though they suck.
23. Philadelphia Eagles
That win over the 49ers doesn't mean shit to me. In fact, it wasn't all that convincing.
A Hastily Sorted Collection of Teams That Are In Trouble
24. Miami Dolphins
Tough loss to swallow at home on Sunday. They're better than last season, and fun to watch. They could hang around in the AFC East for a while. I'm just bitter they lost, and they're paying for it in the rankings.
25. Cleveland Browns
Derek Anderson looked as bad as NFL quarterbacks ever look on Sunday.
26. St. Louis Rams
They've already taken great strides under Jim Haslett. Say this for them: they're playing with great energy and enthusiasm, and sometimes that's a real credit to a coach.
Some More Bad Teams
27. Oakland Raiders
First career win for Tom Cable, and I'd like to send the guy some flowers for getting it over the goddamn Jets.
28. San Francisco 49ers
29 sacks in 7 games for the 49ers. Easy to blame Mike Martz for that, even easier to fire Mike Nolan for it.
29. Seattle Seahawks
Injuries are an easy culprit, but actually, the rest of the league bothered to pay attention to the Seahawks and figured out what a butter-soft team this is.
Indefensively Backwards Organizations, Impossible to Say Who Is the Worst
32. Cincinnati Bengals
A sickening combination of overmatched young players, contagious, poisonous veterans, a head coach who is way out of his league, and a front office that doesn't know how to do anything about it and doesn't care.
32. Detroit Lions
Laughably atrocious. An ostrich quarterback that runs out of the back of his own endzone. Three positives: 1. They got a good haul for Roy Williams. 2. They fired Matt Millen. 3. Calvin Johnson.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Hopeless. Utterly hopeless. Given a million years, Herm Edwards would never do anything positive with this team.
Without a doubt, this is the gloomiest collection of game recaps and rankings I've ever put together in a single post. Sorry about that. I'm looking forward to a good week 8, another Redskins victory, and a rebound from this sorry oil-slick. Picks will be up either later today or early tomorrow.
Here we go:
Baltimore over Miami, 27-13
My Pick: Miami over Baltimore, 20-17
Odd game here. This one was actually a whole lot closer than the final score, and Miami shouldn't feel too bad about the loss. How about this: Miami had more total yards, fewer penalties, just as many turnovers, and almost the same time of possession. The difference? Miami's one turnover, Chad Pennington's hideously poor decision to throw the ball with a defender on his back, went back for a score. Really, that's what the game came down to. Down the stretch, Miami had to play from 2 scores back because they gave up a defensive touchdown early in the game. Though they played Baltimore pretty much to a draw all afternoon and had homefield, the result of Miami's lone turnover pretty much decided this one.
As for Baltimore, hey, that's a legitimately great win for them. Joe Flacco was pretty much outstanding, completing 17 of 23 passes for 230 yards and a score. Willis McGahee ran the ball very well. The defense was outstanding. Baltimore has been close in a lot of their games this season, it's got to feel great to get another win and get that losing streak over and done with. They've got a shot to string some wins together here if they can continue to protect the football, produce on the ground, and play great defense. Up next they host Oakland, then go to Cleveland, then go to Houston. They shouldn't be especially afraid of any of those teams, not with their defense's ability to keep most games within a few points.
New York Giants over San Francisco, 29-17
My Pick: New York Giants over San Francisco, 27-13
It wasn't as bad as it could have been, or maybe as it should have been, but it was apparently bad enough to get Mike Nolan fired as head coach of the 49ers. Good riddance. And a great move by San Francisco's ownership to promote Mike Singletary over Mike Martz. Singletary might not have a lot of credibility yet as a head coach, but I have a hunch he's willful enough and has enough rope with ownership to demand that the offense feature a stronger emphasis on the ground game and protecting the quarterback. Perhaps we'll talk more about that in the week 8 picks.
As for this game, I have to get this out of the way: something stinks on New York's offense, and I think it's the combination of Kevin Gilbride and Plaxico Burress. By my unofficial count, Eli Manning completed 11 of 19 throws to everyone not named Plaxico Burress and only 3 of 13 to Mr. Burress himself. First of all, why is Eli Manning attempting about 40% of his passes in the direction of one receiver? Second of all, why would 40% of his throws go in the direction of a guy he's clearly having no success actually getting the ball to? This is maddening, and it makes me overwhelmingly grateful that the Redskins don't have one of these "elite" receivers on the team. Eli Manning was damn near perfect in the one game he played without Plaxico Burress on the field, and in the two games since his return, Eli's been garbage.
Also, Ahmad Bradshaw is an exciting little runner, he can do some things in space. Brandon Jacobs is an enormous monster and might just be the most intimidatingly physical downhill runner since Earl Campbell. Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled the ball twice in nine touches in this game. Brandon Jacobs was averaging over 4 yards per touch in a relatively close game. Can someone explain to me why Ahmad Bradshaw was getting the bulk of touches down the stretch of this game? Or maybe why Eli Manning spent so much time in the shotgun late in the third and into the fourth quarter? Why Brandon Jacobs only carried the ball 17 times? For the record, I hate the way Kevin Gilbride calls plays, and I hate the way he uses his personnel. He might be the only weak link on a Giants team that might otherwise be the best in the NFL.
As for the 49ers, J.T. O'Sullivan has now been sacked 29 times through 7 games. Last season, San Francisco's offense was awful, their passing attack was a joke, and their offensive line gave up a league-leading 55 sacks. This season, not only are they on pace to blow past that achievement, they've actually given up 10 more sacks than any other team in football. So first of all, what made the good people running this organization think that an offensive line that had tied for worst in the NFL in pass protection in 2007 would be able to hold up in Mike Martz's offense? And second of all, why is Mike Martz so stuck in this one-trick offense that he wouldn't consider adjusting for the fact that he pretty clearly doesn't have an offensive line that can protect in his system? For the last time, and I mean it, unless somebody else hires the guy down the road, why in the hell is Mike Martz employed in the NFL?
I'm thinking the 49ers will keep Martz around through the end of the season just for the sake of continuity, and then he and O'Sullivan will be gone.
Chicago over Minnesota, 48-41
My Pick: Minnesota over Chicago, 20-18
Never have two more incompetent teams combined for 89 points in a football game. I hated this game. I still hate it. In fact, from now on, I'm going to go ahead and pre-emptively hate every Minnesota/Chicago matchup, forever.
First of all, Minnesota, what the fuck. I'd like to thank Chris Kluwe and Minnesota's punt team for executing what was easily the worst, most disasterous play of the 2008 NFL season so far, making us all forget about Pete Kendall's epic meltdown only a week earlier. Cluwe let a perfect snap bounce off his hands, then punted the ball directly into the chest of a Chicago defender. After it landed right at his feet, instead of just falling on it, this moron tries to place kick it upfield, as if that's going to accomplish anything, but it ends up in the arms of an onrushing Chicago defender, who easily returns it for a score. Know what? Things like this don't happen to good or well-coached teams. Minnesota has given up 5 special teams touchdowns already this season. That was one of 2 on the day.
As for Chicago, look: I think we can say for sure now that Kyle Orton should be Chicago's starting quarterback for a while. He looks great out there. But Minnesota's pass defense is flat out terrible. And Chicago's playcalling, especially down the stretch, was hilariously brainless. 3rd and short, late in the game, one-score lead, why not call a reverse? Jesus Christ. Next time, how about a statue of liberty?
Looking ahead, it's easy for me to now envision the Bears sticking around and making a race out of this disaster of a division. They've figured out how to throw the ball around. They've got a good runner. The defense is capable of playing well (just apparently not against the Vikings). I'm happy for them.
Minnesota, on the other hand, ought to be looking for a new head coach.
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, 38-10
My Pick: Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, 35-17
Ouch. And I mean it.
Hines Ward effing devastated Cincinnati rookie linebacker Keith Rivers with a blind first quarter crack-block, broke the kid's jaw, and ended his season. Ouch.
Cincinnati gave it all they had. That was the really sad part. Honestly, they played about as well as I think they can with this group. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a pulse and managed to avoid turning the ball over too many times. Chris Henry was productive for the first time this season. Chad Johnson caught a touchdown pass. They still couldn't run the ball for shit, but they damn near tied Pittsburgh in time of possession and they only had 4 penalties. Those are the kinds of small victories you'll have to live with in Cincinnati these days. To put things in perspective, my wife and I are considering a trip to Cincinnati on December 14th to watch the Redskins play. It'll be a cheaper way to watch the Redskins win in front of a mostly pro-Redskins crowd.
Boy, Pittsburgh sure took care of business. It wasn't flashy, but it was decisive as hell, a precise, efficient, cold-hearted demolition of a division foe. Yes, the Bengals are bad, yes, the Steelers will have a lot more impressive wins throughout the season, but this was a good win. You get extra points for throttling a division opponent you're supposed to beat.
Carolina over New Orleans, 30-7
My Pick: New Orleans over Carolina, 31-26
I'm running out of steam here. I can't come up with a lot to say about a slate of games that were either poorly played on both sides, or really poorly played on one side. You know how this one turned out: New Orleans had no business being out there. No business!
I guess that's a wrap for the 2008 New Orleans Saints. Not that I expect them to fold it up and mail it in from here on, but seriously, at 3-4, having just been flat-out crushed by a division opponent in what was easily their most important game of the season, with Reggie Bush now out for a while, they're cooked. And I'd like to point out that I put Jammal Brown on my Pro Bowl ballot after it became clear that Jordon Gross hadn't deserved the nod, and then Brown went out and got de-souled by Julius Peppers in the most one-sided individual match-up since Johnny Depp was turned into a fountain of gore by Freddy Kruger in A Nightmare on Elm Street. Peppers only had one sack, but damn if Drew Brees won't be waking up every night for a month in a cold sweat with phantom bruises all over his body.
Maybe Carolina can keep this going. Probably not. I'm ready to call them the Jacksonville Jaguars of the NFC: the most sure thing in football is picking them to lose ugly the week after a big win.
St. Louis over Dallas, 34-14
My Pick: Dallas over St. Louis, 24-14
I don't have a whole lot to say about this game, but let me start here: I really hate the Cowboys. More than ever. I hate that team. Nothing disgusts me like the sight of a bunch of silver-pants-wearing assholes standing on the sidelines smirking through an ugly loss, and that's exactly who these Cowboys are: a bunch of assholes doing their best to disavow and disassociate themselves from a poor performance. I hate this team.
As for the Rams, hey, 2-0 under Jim Haslett, two straight wins over NFC East teams, two straight very solid defensive performances. Also, I'll take Donnie Avery on my team any day. And Oshiomogho Atogwe. That guy has 3 turnovers in two games. Stephen Jackson ran well, Marc Bulger threw the ball well, the team was appropriately committed to the ground game, and the defense did a hell of a job. Great win for them. Wouldn't it be a giant spiked dick in the NFC West's pansy ass if the Rams made a contest out of that horror of a division? Go St. Louis!
Tennessee over Kansas City, 34-10
My Pick: Tennessee over Kansas City, 17-0
What a mockery of organized football the Kansas City Chiefs have become. Fuck! This goddamn week 7 recap is putting me in the worst mood!
1. The Chiefs were really, really heated about a field goal they felt was called wrong in the first half. That's hilariously funny. In case anybody didn't notice, they gave up 34 points at home and totally bullshitted their way into avoiding a shut-out loss coming off of their bye week. They're the worst team in football, at this point I'm not actually sure they don't have their helmets on backwards, nor am I any longer certain any practice or coaching is taking place during the week between games, and they're worried about a hooked field goal. Give me an effing break. They should be ashamed of themselves.
2. Out of the bye week, at home, against the best defense in the NFL and the league's sole undefeated team, without your best offensive player, who should you start at quarterback if you're serious about trying to win the game? Option A: Damon Huard, a 12 year veteran and the only quarterback who has been anything close to decent on this abysmal Kansas City team, or Option B: Brodie Croyle, a young guy who can't stay healthy and hasn't ever played well in this offense? Well, if you're Herm Edwards, and your goal isn't actually to try to win the game, but rather to make some sort of statement about sportsmanship, or playing the game the right way, or fundamentals, or leadership, or toughness, or some other crock of shit that's been utterly lost on anybody not named Herm Edwards for as long as this guy has been allowed to ruin NFL franchises, obviously you go with Brodie Croyle. See, it's not so much about winning as it is about taking steps in the . . . umm . . . wrong direction. Because, clearly, coming out of the bye week against an undefeated juggernaut with a truly dangerous defense, in front of an exhausted, shell-shocked crowd desperate for something to be optimistic about, that's the best time to have a try-out at the quarterback position. What a fucking joke.
And the Titans just keep on rolling.
One more thing: holding aside, for the moment, the fact that the Chiefs gave up 332 rushing yards on the day, I'd like to talk about how effing terrible their run defense actually might be. See, here's the thing: Clinton Portis has now had 8 20+ yard carries on the season. Portis might not be the fastest back in the NFL, but he can scoot. He also leads the league in carries. In all those carries, and with all those 20+ yard runs, the guy's long carry on the season is 31 yards. Prior to Sunday's game against the Chiefs, you know how many 20 yard carries LenDale White had? Zero. Not one. His longest run of the season going into Sunday was 17 yards. LenDale White might be the slowest player to carry a football on offense this season. When you give up an 80-yard touchdown run to LenDale White, you aren't just bad at stopping the run, you've actually become a weapon for the opposing offense. LenDale White needs a conveyor belt to outrun my grandmother. He actually lost 18 pounds on that one play. To put into perspective how long it takes LenDale White to run 80 yards, he just now crossed the goalline.
Buffalo over San Diego, 23-14
My Pick: Buffalo over San Diego, 28-24
San Diego didn't want any part of this game. This was a contest down the stretch, but I never had the sense the Chargers were really all that into the game, never had the sense they cared too much, never felt like they were up for mustering a come-from-behind effort.
Can I just say I hate the endzone fade? I hate that play. More often than not, when it has worked, it's because a receiver made a miraculous catch. It's a stupid play. The Bills ran it and it worked because Lee Evans was able to use his helmet in the act of securing the ball. I can't stand that play.
I don't really have much more to say about this. The Chargers were never going to win this game. Now they get to play the Disappointing Bowl in London, where 90,000 cheery Brits will be treated to 3 hours of atrociously poor football between two teams who've run themselves out of contention. Great!
Houston over Detroit, 28-21
My Pick: Houston over Detroit, 35-10
Houston's offense was strong, Detroit's defense was bad. Dan Orlovsky managed to not run out of the back of the endzone in this one, so that's something. He needed a 96 yard catch and run from Calvin Johnson to get some respectable numbers, but he actually didn't play so poorly. They're just so, so, so piss poor. I mean, c'mon. They held the ball for fewer than 20 minutes in this game. I have trouble pulling off that kind of time of possession domination in Madden, and most of my players are rated 95 and above!
What more can I say? This wasn't really ever a one-score game. Detroit deserves some credit for only losing by a touchdown, I suppose.
Green Bay over Indianapolis, 34-14
My Pick: Indianapolis over Green Bay, 30-28
What the hell happened in the NFL this week? Good teams don't lose like this! New Orleans goes on the road in their division and gets stomped by Carolina. Dallas goes on the road and gets clobbered by the Rams. Denver goes to New England and gets completely erased by the Patriots. Indy goes into Green Bay and is just leveled by the Packers. What happened to good football? Is it really possible that New Orleans, Indianapolis, Denver, and Dallas can be added to the list of bad football teams this season? Those teams are a combined 14-13, not one of them is more than a game removed from .500. Can it be that .500 teams in the NFL are this bad in 2008? What the hell? And where are the good teams to balance that out? If the really bad teams (Oakland, Kansas City, Detroit, Cincinnati, Seattle, etc.) are a tier below the Indy/Dallas/New Orleans/Denver pack, shouldn't there be another tier, say, a few levels up from there, teams that are consistently crushing their opposition? I'm not seeing it!
Fucking Indy, stick a fork in those bastards. That window is completely shut. Green Bay is not the kind of team that should be blowing out any competent football teams. Peyton Manning was terrible in this game, throwing two touchdowns to the Packers, for crying out loud. He completed only 50% of his passes for about 5 yards an attempt. He was awful. He was the worst player on the field, and he wasn't sacked even once.
On the other side of the ball, hey, Ryan Grant had his first touchdown of the season and his first 100 yard game of the season, on about 3.5 yards a carry against the NFL's fourth worst run defense.
Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, was good. Despite what you might have heard when he was drafted, he's got something of a hose, and he throws a good looking ball. As far as the passing game goes, the Packers are in good shape. And Charles Woodson deserves a special nod for completely erasing Reggie Wayne. It was vintage Woodson, using the double-jam at the line of scrimmage, running with him stride for stride, locating the ball in mid-air, jumping routes, suffocating his man. He might be getting a bit long in the tooth, but this guy is still a serious cover corner.
Washington over Cleveland, 14-11
My Pick: Washington over Cleveland, 17-13
I had this one about pegged. I made a point of saying this game would do nothing to make me feel more confident entering week 8, but I was wrong. I feel significantly better about the Redskins than I did a week ago.
Really, it wasn't this close, nor should it have been this close. This should have been something like 21-3 or 17-3, and were it not for a brilliant play by a recovering Cleveland defensive back, it would have been. That 8-point swing off Clinton Portis's first fumble of the season made it look closer, made the outcome a bit less certain, made the final minutes of the game absolute torture, but it wasn't actually a very close game at all.
Special game balls to Derek Anderson, the first quarterback about whom I can honestly say I'm not sure he could throw a stone into the ocean, and Braylon Edwards, who couldn't have done more to derail his team's offense and torpedo his own quarterback without actually slitting the guy's throat. All that aside, though, the Redskins played about as well defensively as possible while not forcing a turnover and only recording a single sack. London Fletcher was awesome, and I love the way Washington's down linemen were getting their hands into the passing lanes and swatting down passes. It's little things like that that tell me Greg Blatche is doing a hell of a job with the defense. Well coached defenses make little plays like that.
And Clinton Portis was awesome again, maybe too awesome. I love the ground game, I'm ecstatic that he leads the league in rushing and that the offensive line is dominating the line of scrimmage so easily. On the other hand, I'm eager to see the Redskins put 30 on the board and win by more than a touchdown, and for that to happen, I'll need Jim Zorn to open up the passing game a bit. I understand his thinking right now, I can't say I blame him, and I honestly wouldn't advocate for him to actually change anything about the way he's calling offense these days, except maybe to remove any end-arounds from the playbook. He's got a big veteran offensive line and a shifty runningback who seems to be in a serious groove. His defense is dominating. Why take chances in the passing game? Well, here's why: because the Redskins lost to the Rams at home in week 6 and were within a late field goal of going to overtime against the Browns. Playing things safe when your running game is great and your defense is successfully keeping other teams out of the endzone is understandable, but when you play a lot of close games, you're bound to lose some.
Now, I've said that, and I would like to see some more explosiveness from Washington's offense, but I also have to say this: if Zorn wants to keep calling games this way indefinitely, I'm fine with that. The Redskins are 5-2 and look as good as any team in their conference. They've got another winnable road game up next and then a good chance to make a statement at home against a team they're going to need to be able to run the ball against the following Monday night. I'll take a win, or a chance to win, over a high-octane loss any day. Keep it up, Skynards!
Oakland over New York Jets, 16-13
My Pick: New York Jets over Oakland, 21-20
I blew this one. I thought Oakland might win, I though Brett Favre might suck, and then I played it stupidly when I thought I was playing it safe by taking Brett Favre, 3,000 miles from home, in a road game. Stupid, stupid, stupid, and it might be my last chance to nail an "upset" like this one. What a shame. I really do regret picking the Jets.
Neither team played well, no one player was especially good on either team. Both coaches were nauseatingly conservative in overtime.
Tampa Bay over Seattle, 20-10
My Pick: Tampa Bay over Seattle, 20-17
Ugly game. There's not much to say about it. I wish Seneca Wallace had played a bit better, I do think he can be a difference maker, even at quarterback.
New England over Denver, 41-7
My Pick: New England over Denver, 24-21
Denver sucks. I said so. Anybody who thought otherwise is either a homer, a Jay Cutler's balls-sucking idiot, or just plain doesn't know shit about football. Denver's defense is so bad I'm offended by it. When Cutler is under pressure or out of rhythm, he just chucks the ball up for grabs. It's embarrassing. He's no elite quarterback. He's the ring-leader of a circus act, a not-very-good one.
Great win for New England. They won't go quietly, will they? Buffalo and New England do business in weeks 10 and 17, and those might end up meaning something if New England can hang around for a while. Matt Cassel still doesn't really seem to know what to do under pressure, and how many times do you see a team win by 34 points when their quarterback is sacked 6 times? Seriously, how many people would believe you if you told them a 4-2 team would lose by 34 points when they sack the opposing quarterback 6 times in one half? That's exactly how bad the Broncos are.
Well, I went a nauseating 8-6 this week. Beyond that, I was really only close on a couple of games: Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, New York over San Francisco, and Washington over Cleveland. There'll be hell to pay for certain teams, like New Orleans and Indianapolis, when I do my week 8 picks. You don't go from me picking you on the road to losing by several touchdowns without paying a serious penalty the following week.
Here's a quickly scrapped together Top-to-Bottom Ranking of NFL teams:
Contenders
1. Tennessee Titans
They flattened the Chiefs in Arrowhead and are on a roll.
2. New York Giants
A convincing win over the 49ers at home. Now they've got a tough stretch: they go to Pittsburgh, then host the Cowboys, then go to Philadelphia. 2-1 though that stretch would be a major accomplishment.
3. Buffalo Bills
Hey, it was a good win over a "tough" San Diego team. They didn't look perfect, but Trent Edwards was excellent.
4. Washington Redskins
Made it a bit too tough on themselves, but a win is a win is a win.
Pretenders
5. Carolina Panthers
Steamrolled a division foe at home, shut down one of the NFL's best offenses. Good shit.
6. Pittsburgh Panthers
Penalized for having wins over Cincinnati, Cleveland, Baltimore, and Houston, and for having the most obvious flaw (pass protection) of any team in the top 6.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Solid, one-sided win over the lowly Seahawks helps them keep pace with the Panthers. I hate their offense and their coach, but they're doing the job.
Interesting
8. Arizona Cardinals
Tough at home, explosive on offense, and a bit spunky on defense. We'll see how they look coming out of the bye at Carolina, in one of week 8's best match-ups.
9. Atlanta Falcons
Getting great play at quarterback and in the running game. Right now, they look like a playoff contender.
Not Interesting At All
10. Chicago Bears
Put up some huge numbers at home against Minnesota, in one of the most embarrassing contests of the season.
11. New England Patriots
A dominating home performance, but there were obvious sore-spots. Plus, they did get blasted in San Diego.
12. Green Bay Packers
Huge, dominating home win over Indianapolis, but you can't ignore the consecutive ugly losses and the lack of a ground game.
13. Baltimore Ravens
A road win is a good win every time, and it's not like Miami is chopped liver, either. The Ravens can hang around.
Also-Ran
14. Jacksonville Jaguars
We'll learn a lot about the Jaguars in week 8, fresh off the bye, at home against the woeful Browns.
15. Houston Texans
That's right, you heard me. They're better than Indianapolis, better than Dallas, better than Philly, better than San Diego. They had a rough start to the season, but they can play.
Overrated Crap
16. Denver Broncos
Awful garbage masquerading as an explosive offense.
17. San Diego Chargers
Never mind the games, this is the best team in the NFL! The deepest! The most talented! Your 2008 Associated Press Champions, the San Diego Chargers!
18. Dallas Cowboys
Wake me when they grow a backbone and/or testicles.
Butsed Down, Burnt Out Shells
19. Indianapolis Colts
Good teams don't lose that way. They just don't.
20. New Orleans Saints
Good teams don't lose that way. They just don't.
21. Minnesota Vikings
A dissheveled mess. No pass defense, too many turnovers, and the worst special teams in the NFL.
Rotting Carcasses
22. New York Jets
A fraud of a team if ever there was one. They'll hang around just long enough to convince the sports media they had a good season, even though they suck.
23. Philadelphia Eagles
That win over the 49ers doesn't mean shit to me. In fact, it wasn't all that convincing.
A Hastily Sorted Collection of Teams That Are In Trouble
24. Miami Dolphins
Tough loss to swallow at home on Sunday. They're better than last season, and fun to watch. They could hang around in the AFC East for a while. I'm just bitter they lost, and they're paying for it in the rankings.
25. Cleveland Browns
Derek Anderson looked as bad as NFL quarterbacks ever look on Sunday.
26. St. Louis Rams
They've already taken great strides under Jim Haslett. Say this for them: they're playing with great energy and enthusiasm, and sometimes that's a real credit to a coach.
Some More Bad Teams
27. Oakland Raiders
First career win for Tom Cable, and I'd like to send the guy some flowers for getting it over the goddamn Jets.
28. San Francisco 49ers
29 sacks in 7 games for the 49ers. Easy to blame Mike Martz for that, even easier to fire Mike Nolan for it.
29. Seattle Seahawks
Injuries are an easy culprit, but actually, the rest of the league bothered to pay attention to the Seahawks and figured out what a butter-soft team this is.
Indefensively Backwards Organizations, Impossible to Say Who Is the Worst
32. Cincinnati Bengals
A sickening combination of overmatched young players, contagious, poisonous veterans, a head coach who is way out of his league, and a front office that doesn't know how to do anything about it and doesn't care.
32. Detroit Lions
Laughably atrocious. An ostrich quarterback that runs out of the back of his own endzone. Three positives: 1. They got a good haul for Roy Williams. 2. They fired Matt Millen. 3. Calvin Johnson.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Hopeless. Utterly hopeless. Given a million years, Herm Edwards would never do anything positive with this team.
Without a doubt, this is the gloomiest collection of game recaps and rankings I've ever put together in a single post. Sorry about that. I'm looking forward to a good week 8, another Redskins victory, and a rebound from this sorry oil-slick. Picks will be up either later today or early tomorrow.
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