And here they are!
Green Bay @ Detroit
You've got to like the Packers in this one. They're on a roll, whereas the Lions have lost two straight and seem to have abandoned the run altogether. Detroit has been a lot better at home and really needs this win, but I don't see them finding their rhythm in time to disrupt the magic of the Packers. Kitna's prediction is on life support right now.
Packers over Lions, 27-21
New York Jets @ Dallas
The Jets have almost no chance in this one. They can't run the ball consistently and they won't try. They generated a fair amount of pressure against the Steelers, but that was an anomaly. They also have the second worst run defense in football. They're road kill in this one.
Cowboys over Jets, 38-13
Indianapolis @ Atlanta
I see the Colts getting back to their dominant ways in this one. Not just because Atlanta is that bad, but because the Colts are really good, and they won't stay down for long. Indianapolis's defense will feast on the awful Falcons offense, and I can see a defensive score for the Colts.
Colts over Falcons, 24-3
New Orleans @ Carolina
I can't see Carolina screwing it's head on straight enough to get a win right now. They're banged up and just plain bad. New Orleans is gasping, but they have offensive weapons and are desperate for a win. I can guess at a formula for them to win; I can't imagine how Carolina would ever win a game. Therefore . . .
Saints over Panthers, 23-20
Tennessee @ Cincinnati
I really need to pick a home team. Like the Eagles, you never know when the Bengals are going to bust out a monster offensive game. Like the Eagles, I've been waiting for the Bengals to sort it out and make a run for a few weeks, and it hasn't happened. As for Tennessee, so much rides on whether Albert Haynesworth plays. I'm assuming he will. That means the Tennessee front four will eat the Bengals line for breakfast, eliminating the ground game and disrupting Carson Palmer. He'll get a few scores, but Cincy doesn't seem to have the will to win these days. Tennessee, on the other hand, must win this game to stay in the wild-card hunt. This is a coin-flip, but I'm going with the Titans.
Titans over Bengals, 31-24
Houston @ Cleveland
I like both of these teams, but I especially like the Browns at home with the playoffs on the line. I see them moving the ball with ease on the Texans, but I also see the Texans hanging with them. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are a great duo, and they can score in a hurry. I need a home team, and I prefer Cleveland. That's a sorry formula for a pick, but there it is.
Browns over Texans, 28-24
Buffalo @ Jacksonville
I really want this one to be close. I'd love it if the Bills came in and took this game. Lord knows they need the win. They'll need Losman to pull off a couple of those deep strikes and make the Jags play from behind. I'm concerned that Marshawn Lynch isn't going to play in this one, and since that seems to be the early word, I'm taking the Jags. Go Bills!
Jaguars over Bills, 20-17
Oakland @ Kansas City
Hard to know why either team would win this game. Neither team has anything left at all. Kansas City has no running game and no passing game. Oakland keeps pounding the ball, but they can't do jack through the air, they're turnover prone, and their defense stinks. Screw it, take the home team.
Chiefs over Raiders, 13-7
Minnesota @ New York Giants
I'm taking New York in this one, but only because they're at home and I'd feel like an ass if I took Minnesota and they lost. But let me say this: Minnesota has a real chance of beating the crap out of the Giants. Why? Because they don't need to pass the ball to win, and that neutralizes the scary Giants pass rush. The Vikings have the best offensive line in the NFC, and Chester Taylor is way more than enough to make it count. For the Giants to win, they need Eli to protect the ball and make plays, and they need to stop the run. They won't have much success on the ground against the Vikings, but if they can pass the ball and limit Taylor, they should win. I don't know . . .
Giants over Vikings, 21-20
Seattle @ St. Louis
Again, don't be shocked if St. Louis jumps up and kills the Seahawks. St. Louis has the more balanced offense (Ha!), is at home, and has nothing to lose. Seattle is a bad road team, is butter-soft, too convinced of their own greatness, and primed for an upset. Still, you'd be an ass to take the bottom-feeding Rams over the finally-healthy-at-receiver Sea-jacks. Plus, I picked up D. J. Hackett for my fantasy team, and I'll be damned if I'm gonna pick against him.
Seahawks over Rams, 31-21
Washington @ Tampa Bay
I don't know enough about Tampa Bay to know how the Skins can beat them at home. I do know they don't scare anybody with their offensive players. I sense the key to beating them is putting pressure on Jeff Garcia without letting him leave the pocket. The Skins aren't any good at that. They also need to keep Ernest Graham in check, and that shouldn't be too hard. If they can force a few turnovers and move the ball like they did against Dallas, they should win. If they can play Dallas to the final whistle in Texas, they should be able to put up a hell of a fight against the Bucs. What, you thought I would pick against the Skins when the universe has conspired to keep them in the Wild Card race another week? Hell no! Interesting note: if the Skins sneak into the playoffs, they'd likely get Tampa Bay in the first round . . .again!
Redskins over Buccaneers, 24-14
San Francisco @ Arizona
Never, EVER pick the 49ers. I swear to God, I wouldn't pick them if the NFL let them play with twelve or even thirteen men on the field on both sides of the ball. I swear.
Cardinals over 49ers, 28-9
Denver @ Chicago
Trap game for Denver, coming off a big win on Monday night to put them in a tie atop the AFC West. Chicago is tough as nails. Still, it's tough to imagine the Bears moving the ball through the air, and since they have the worst starting tailback in the NFL (yep), they can't count on the "Denver Stat Bump" to help their cause. I don't feel too good about taking Denver on the road, but I watched 'em play Monday night, and I kinda like those whacky Broncos.
Broncos over Bears, 20-17
Baltimore @ San Diego
Who knows? Seriously, who knows? Nobody, that's who. Baltimore can't move the ball and can't score, certainly not against a defense better than Cleveland's. San Diego can't pass the ball and just has no rhythm whatsoever on offense. This is Norv Turner's job, right here. Since its a foregone conclusion that the Chargers won't be going to the Super Bowl (as they don't play in New England), the best they can do is salvage the regular season and hope to be the AFC representative in the pre-Super Bowl Patriots Feeding Frenzy. Home losses to sorry teams like the Ravens don't help. On the other hand, the Ravens are due another loss after goddamn Brian Billick embarrassed his whole friggin' COUNTRY by b&m-ing about the field goal that tied the game on Sunday. What a joke this guy is. How could a coach go on national television and shame himself and his franchise like that? The Ravens didn't go to the locker room because they thought they'd won the game, and the fact that the media fell for that crap is flat-out embarrassing. They went to the locker room to put pressure on the officials to not reverse the call, and when the officials got the call right, the only thing they could do was cry about it. Pathetic. Karma strikes back, you wankers.
Chargers over Ravens, 31-10 and LaDainian Tomlinson goes nuts and scores three touchdowns.
Philadelphia @ New England
Bor-ing. Wake me when it's over.
Patriots over Eagles, Some High Number - Some Low Number
Miami @ Pittsburgh
The Steelers rebound at home and thrash the hapless Dolphins. Every part of the Steelers offense gets healthy, and the game is essentially over by halftime.
Steelers over Dolphins, 35-13
You've got to admit, a guy who makes his picks on Tuesday and goes 11-5 is pretty impressive. We'll see about this week, these are some tough-to-call matchups. Warshingtin is back in the 1pm time-slot, which means I'll be watching them on NFL.com's far-superior-to-ESPN.com's Live Gamecast.
Go Skynards!
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Monday, November 19, 2007
Don't Bother Watching, I've Got it All Figured Out!
Here's my preview of the final six weeks, starting with the NFC:
NFC East
Dallas has a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way, with 4 of 6 games against teams with .500 records or better. They'll get their biggest two tests on Thanksgiving, when they host the Packers, and in week 14, when they go to Detroit. I don't see them losing more than one more game, and it'll either be one of those or their trip to Washington in week 17, when they'll likely take it easy on their starters. Because they host Green Bay, I'm giving them the nod. Final record: 14-2 (NFC East Champ, 1st place NFC)
Philadelphia has a really really tough schedule the rest of the way, playing a full slate against teams with playoff hopes. With a healthy Donovan McNabb, I could see them possibly gutting out a .500 record the rest of the way and just missing the playoffs. Without him, they'll be lucky to win two games. After getting thrashed in New England next Sunday, they get Seattle and the Giants at home before going to Dallas and New Orleans. That's tough. They could beat Seattle, but if McNabb ends up getting shut down for the year or misses more than a week or two, they're beyond cooked. Final record: 7-9
New York also has a pretty tough road between now and their home loss to New England in week 17. They host Minnesota on Sunday, exactly the kind of tougher than hell team that could very well usher in the collapse in New York. In fact, their next six games SCREAM collapse. After a tough Vikings bunch at home, they go to tough-balls Chicago, then to rival Philly, then host rival Washington, then to big-brass-balls Buffalo, then the aforementioned reaming from New England. If they stay healthy, they could very well win five of six. I don't know, I don't feel comfortable giving them more than 4 wins. Still, that's something. Final record: 11-5 (5th place NFC)
Washington has a typically tough NFC east schedule down the stretch, but it sets up well if they can get past the Bucs in Tampa next week. They have winnable home games against Buffalo and Chicago before crucial road games in New York and Minnesota. They could very well be playing for their playoff spot in week 17 against a resting Dallas bunch. We'll see. Final record: 9-7 (6th place NFC)
NFC North
Chicago can play the playoff spoiler role in a few games down the stretch, and they have a few home games. Too bad their division is out of reach at this point. With home games against Denver, the Giants, Green Bay, and New Orleans sandwiched evenly around two road games in Washington and Minnesota, they get five of six against teams that fancy themselves playoff competitors. I see them spoiling Denver and New Orleans, and taking one of the remaining four, probably the rematch in Minnesota. Final record: 7-9
Detroit, unfortunately, will not be getting their ten wins. They have a really tough final six games, and they need to win four of them to make Kitna happy. I see them losing both matches against Green Bay, the home game against Dallas, and one of the other three, probably the road game in San Diego. Considering they got their asses handed to them by Washington, that'll leave them out of the playoff picture. They've had a hell of a season, anyway. Final record: 9-7
Minnesota doesn't even have many chances to play spoiler. If they get Adrian Peterson back, they could make some noise and they'll be worth watching. If not, they'll be a real snore-fest the rest of the way. They can spoil for Detroit, the Giants, and Washington, but their matches with San Francisco, Chicago, and Denver will have little to no impact on the season. In one man's opinion, they ought to shut Peterson down for the year. Final record: 6-10
Green Bay plays four of six on the road, but they have consecutive games against Oakland, St. Louis, and Chicago. They'll take those three, and at least one of the remaining three. Because I said Detroit will lose both games to Green Bay, I'm sticking with it. That gets the Packers to 14 wins. Sounds about right to me. Final record: 14-2 (NFC North Champ, 2nd place NFC)
NFC South
Atlanta has no reason to compete the rest of the way, other than to find out who stays and who goes in the off-season. They play five of six against playoff hopefuls, so they could do a little spoiling down the stretch, but I don't see it happening. They have one truly winnable game left on their schedule: at St. Louis, and they'll lose by at least two scores. Final record: 3-13
Carolina also finishes with five of six against playoff hopefuls. Who knows with this team? Right now, I would only pick them to win one of their remaining games, so I'm sticking with it. They're lucky they get San Francisco at home. Final record: 5-11
New Orleans will not be making the playoffs. Looking at their remaining schedule, they don't have much to worry about, except that they're a remarkably unpredictable and inconsistent team. I'll probably pick them in all but two of their games, but that leaves them at .500 to finish the season. Maybe next year, Saints! Final record: 8-8
Tampa Bay will be winning the NFC South. All they need is three wins, and if they fail to get them beforehand, they're virtually assured with Atlanta, San Francisco, and Carolina (at home) to finish the season. If they're lucky enough to pull out a couple of wins before that "murderer's row", they could even rest a few players in week 17! Final record: 10-6 (NFC South champ, 4th place NFC)
NFC West
Arizona has a nice schedule for making a playoff run, with four winnable home games sandwiched around 50/50 road contests. They could and should win three of four home games against San Francisco, Cleveland, Atlanta, and St. Louis. They'll need at least four wins down the stretch to get to 9-7, which will leave them out of the post-season, owing to their road loss to Washington. If they can get that fifth win in six against Cleveland, Seattle (on the road), or New Orleans (also on the road), they'll take the tie-breaker and squeak in, giving the woeful NFC West two playoff teams and the whole rest of the NFL something to chuckle about. Final record: 9-7
St. Louis actually has a tough-ish schedule down the stretch. If they stay healthy, they could win two or three of those games, but why? They'd do better to get a high draft pick. Final record: 4-12
San Francisco won't win another game all year. They're that bad. Final record: 2-14
Seattle will get the NFC West crown, especially since they don't have jack down the stretch. Their biggest test will be a home game against Arizona. They should win four of six, if not more. Final record: 11-5 (NFC West Champ, 3rd place NFC)
AFC East
Buffalo has too tough a schedule down the stretch to make a run at the AFC Wild Card. They play four of six on the road, with all four road games against teams that currently sit at .500 or better. They have a winnable home game against Miami and a tough home game against the Giants, and if they pull out a .500 record the rest of the way, it'll be just as impressive an achievement as their .500 record through ten games. Final record: 7-9
Miami has a pretty even mix of opportunities to spoil and games that I couldn't be paid to watch. If everything fell right, they could conceivably win three games down the stretch, with home games against the Jets, Baltimore, and Cincinnati. They'll lose all of their road contests, especially considering they get Pittsburgh, New England, and Buffalo. I don't see them going winless, and I think the best chances for that all-too-elusive first win will be against New York and Baltimore. They'll get at least one. Final record: 1-15
New England will be heavy favorites in every game this year. The early line for their week 12 home game against a potentially McNabb-less Philly team is 22.5 points. Yikes. They have only two road games left on their schedule, in Baltimore and in New York. Against all odds, I think there's a greater likelihood that they go undefeated than that they lose a game. If Pittsburgh can't beat the Jets, Arizona, and Denver on the road, what makes anyone think they can go into Gillette Stadium and take down the Pats? Final record: 16-0 (AFC East Champ, 1st place AFC)
New York has too many road games left to really climb back into any sort of respectability. They'll lose three of four of them, including in Dallas, in New England, and in Tennessee. They ought to beat Kansas City at home in week 17, but that's a crapshoot. Could the upset Cleveland at home? Sure, but I don't see it happening. Their best chance for a win will come in Miami, in a matchup nobody in their right mind will be interested in. Final record: 3-13
AFC North
Baltimore's playoff hopes are cooked. They have a full slate of super-tough games against win-hungry opponents fighting for playoff positions. I'd pick them to lose all but maybe one game, and their probably good for an upset in there. They hose New England, Indy, and Pittsburgh (yipe!), and travel to San Diego and Seattle. I'll probably pick them when they go to Miami, but that could be a loss, too. I can't see them pulling out more than one, MAYBE two wins. Screw it. Final record: 5-11
Cincinnati has a fairly light schedule the rest of the way. I see them passing Baltimore in the AFC North. They have home games against Tennessee, St. Louis, and Cleveland, and they go to Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Miami. There are probably three wins in there, as long as their offense is working. They could even jump up and sting Tennessee or Cleveland if they stay hot. Will it be enough to save Marvin Lewis's job? Final record: 6-10
Cleveland has a pretty easy run here to finish the season, and they look pretty good for the playoffs. Their biggest test comes in Arizona in week 13, but even that game is perfectly winnable. They hose Houston, Buffalo, and San Francisco, and they go to Arizona, the Jets, and Cincinnati. If nothing else, they'll put up big offensive numbers the rest of the way, and I see them getting to ten wins. Cleveland needs to win each of their remaining AFC games to realistically have a chance at the wild-card. Because I think they and Tennessee will be tied for the sixth spot, it'll come down to conference win percentage, and Cleveland is sitting at 4-4. If they get to 8-4 in the AFC, they're probably in. Since their remaining AFC games are against Houston, Buffalo, the Jets, and the Bengals, they'll probably be favored in each game. Final record: 10-6 (6th place AFC)
Pittsburgh can probably start making plans for the post-season. They've got four pretty easy wins left on their schedule: hosting Miami and Cincinnati, and then going to St. Louis and Baltimore. If they can take those, they'll sew up their division. The other two games, a road loss to New England and a tough home game against Jacksonville, could determine whether or not they have a first round bye in the playoffs. Final record: 11-5 (AFC North Champ, 3rd place AFC)
AFC South
Houston has done a hell of a job to scrape their way to .500 this late in the season, but they'll have a tough time staying there through the end. They go to Cleveland, Tennessee, and Indianapolis, and those will be three tough games. They hose Tampa, Denver, and Jacksonville, and those won't be too easy either. I see them playing tough in every game, and because I like the Texans, I'll go ahead and give 'em two wins. With the injuries they've suffered, seven wins is nothing to sniff at. Final record: 7-9
Indianapolis should have no problem winning their division, though they have a few tests remaining. Their remaining division contests are home games against Houston, Jacksonville, and Tennessee, and they've already taken road games from all three. They have Atlanta, Baltimore, and Oakland on the road, so even if they drop a disappointing home loss to one of their rivals, they should still get to eleven or twelve wins. That should be enough to get them to the post-season. Final record: 12-4 (AFC South Champs, 2nd place AFC)
Jacksonville has some pretty important games left. There isn't a game left on their schedule they couldn't win, but they've battled inconsistency all season long. Their remaining home games are favorable, with Buffalo, Carolina, and Oakland coming to town. They go to Indy, Pittsburgh, and Houston, and those will be critical games. If they stay healthy and consistent, I see them taking four of six. Final record: 11-5 (5th place AFC)
Tennessee needs four wins in their final six games to stay in the playoff discussion, and here they are: at Cincinnati, hosting Houston, at Kansas City, and hosting the Jets. Their other games are in Indianapolis, and hosting San Diego. They could take San Diego down, too. Here's the thing about their remaining games: Kansas City and New York have anemic offenses, and that works to Tennessee's advantage. Cincinnati, Houston, Indy, and San Diego all have the potential to explode, so those will be very dangerous games for Tennessee. As we saw against the Broncos on Monday night, they struggle when they have to play from behind because they prefer to work methodically in their offense, and they don't have many big play threats. Because of that, I think they won't get more than ten wins, but ten could be enough for a playoff spot. All their remaining games are against the AFC, and by my calculations, Tennessee would need to win five of six to get to the post-season. If they win five of six, they'll be 11-5, so they'd be in anyway. Point is, I don't see them winning five of six, so I see them on the outside looking in. Final record: 10-6
AFC West
Denver could very well win the AFC West. They host Kansas City and Minnesota, both tough tests for their horrid run defense. They go to Chicago, Oakland, Houston, and San Diego. The common theme for their remaining schedule is the running game: each of these teams features it heavily and will seriously test the thin defense of the Broncos. Because of that, I don't see Denver winning more than three of these games: the Chiefs at home, Minnesota at home, and in Oakland. That'll get 'em to 8-8, but will it be enough? No! Final record: 8-8
Kansas City will probably crumble down the stretch, though they don't have the toughest schedule. With home games against Oakland, San Diego, and Tennessee, they could do a little spoiling. At Denver and at Detroit they can do a little more. Their finale against the Jets ought to be one of the worst, least important games of the year. If LJ is back and healthy, they could very well win three more, but since I think the Chiefs are hiding the fact that LJ is done for the season to save the embarrassment of having to admit they made a mistake by dealing his primary backup, they'll probably get two at the most. Final record: 6-10
Oakland is a mess, and a lot depends on whether they go to the kid or not. If they do, they'll probably only stand a chance of winning one of their remaining games, either their trip to Arrowhead or their home contest with Denver. Hell, even if they don't start him, they're not beating Green Bay, Indy, Jacksonville, or San Diego. Final record: 3-13
San Diego probably will win the AFC West, and I hope they do it by getting above .500. They ought to beat Baltimore at home, Denver at home, Kansas City on the road, and Oakland on the road. That'll put 'em at 9-7. They could also take a home game against Detroit, that'd be even better. I don't love the Chargers, but I can't stand the idea of an 8-8 division winner. Honestly, I don't even like a 9-7 division winner, but the AFC West is just atrocious. Final record: 9-7 (AFC West Champ, 4th place AFC)
Picks coming later!
NFC East
Dallas has a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way, with 4 of 6 games against teams with .500 records or better. They'll get their biggest two tests on Thanksgiving, when they host the Packers, and in week 14, when they go to Detroit. I don't see them losing more than one more game, and it'll either be one of those or their trip to Washington in week 17, when they'll likely take it easy on their starters. Because they host Green Bay, I'm giving them the nod. Final record: 14-2 (NFC East Champ, 1st place NFC)
Philadelphia has a really really tough schedule the rest of the way, playing a full slate against teams with playoff hopes. With a healthy Donovan McNabb, I could see them possibly gutting out a .500 record the rest of the way and just missing the playoffs. Without him, they'll be lucky to win two games. After getting thrashed in New England next Sunday, they get Seattle and the Giants at home before going to Dallas and New Orleans. That's tough. They could beat Seattle, but if McNabb ends up getting shut down for the year or misses more than a week or two, they're beyond cooked. Final record: 7-9
New York also has a pretty tough road between now and their home loss to New England in week 17. They host Minnesota on Sunday, exactly the kind of tougher than hell team that could very well usher in the collapse in New York. In fact, their next six games SCREAM collapse. After a tough Vikings bunch at home, they go to tough-balls Chicago, then to rival Philly, then host rival Washington, then to big-brass-balls Buffalo, then the aforementioned reaming from New England. If they stay healthy, they could very well win five of six. I don't know, I don't feel comfortable giving them more than 4 wins. Still, that's something. Final record: 11-5 (5th place NFC)
Washington has a typically tough NFC east schedule down the stretch, but it sets up well if they can get past the Bucs in Tampa next week. They have winnable home games against Buffalo and Chicago before crucial road games in New York and Minnesota. They could very well be playing for their playoff spot in week 17 against a resting Dallas bunch. We'll see. Final record: 9-7 (6th place NFC)
NFC North
Chicago can play the playoff spoiler role in a few games down the stretch, and they have a few home games. Too bad their division is out of reach at this point. With home games against Denver, the Giants, Green Bay, and New Orleans sandwiched evenly around two road games in Washington and Minnesota, they get five of six against teams that fancy themselves playoff competitors. I see them spoiling Denver and New Orleans, and taking one of the remaining four, probably the rematch in Minnesota. Final record: 7-9
Detroit, unfortunately, will not be getting their ten wins. They have a really tough final six games, and they need to win four of them to make Kitna happy. I see them losing both matches against Green Bay, the home game against Dallas, and one of the other three, probably the road game in San Diego. Considering they got their asses handed to them by Washington, that'll leave them out of the playoff picture. They've had a hell of a season, anyway. Final record: 9-7
Minnesota doesn't even have many chances to play spoiler. If they get Adrian Peterson back, they could make some noise and they'll be worth watching. If not, they'll be a real snore-fest the rest of the way. They can spoil for Detroit, the Giants, and Washington, but their matches with San Francisco, Chicago, and Denver will have little to no impact on the season. In one man's opinion, they ought to shut Peterson down for the year. Final record: 6-10
Green Bay plays four of six on the road, but they have consecutive games against Oakland, St. Louis, and Chicago. They'll take those three, and at least one of the remaining three. Because I said Detroit will lose both games to Green Bay, I'm sticking with it. That gets the Packers to 14 wins. Sounds about right to me. Final record: 14-2 (NFC North Champ, 2nd place NFC)
NFC South
Atlanta has no reason to compete the rest of the way, other than to find out who stays and who goes in the off-season. They play five of six against playoff hopefuls, so they could do a little spoiling down the stretch, but I don't see it happening. They have one truly winnable game left on their schedule: at St. Louis, and they'll lose by at least two scores. Final record: 3-13
Carolina also finishes with five of six against playoff hopefuls. Who knows with this team? Right now, I would only pick them to win one of their remaining games, so I'm sticking with it. They're lucky they get San Francisco at home. Final record: 5-11
New Orleans will not be making the playoffs. Looking at their remaining schedule, they don't have much to worry about, except that they're a remarkably unpredictable and inconsistent team. I'll probably pick them in all but two of their games, but that leaves them at .500 to finish the season. Maybe next year, Saints! Final record: 8-8
Tampa Bay will be winning the NFC South. All they need is three wins, and if they fail to get them beforehand, they're virtually assured with Atlanta, San Francisco, and Carolina (at home) to finish the season. If they're lucky enough to pull out a couple of wins before that "murderer's row", they could even rest a few players in week 17! Final record: 10-6 (NFC South champ, 4th place NFC)
NFC West
Arizona has a nice schedule for making a playoff run, with four winnable home games sandwiched around 50/50 road contests. They could and should win three of four home games against San Francisco, Cleveland, Atlanta, and St. Louis. They'll need at least four wins down the stretch to get to 9-7, which will leave them out of the post-season, owing to their road loss to Washington. If they can get that fifth win in six against Cleveland, Seattle (on the road), or New Orleans (also on the road), they'll take the tie-breaker and squeak in, giving the woeful NFC West two playoff teams and the whole rest of the NFL something to chuckle about. Final record: 9-7
St. Louis actually has a tough-ish schedule down the stretch. If they stay healthy, they could win two or three of those games, but why? They'd do better to get a high draft pick. Final record: 4-12
San Francisco won't win another game all year. They're that bad. Final record: 2-14
Seattle will get the NFC West crown, especially since they don't have jack down the stretch. Their biggest test will be a home game against Arizona. They should win four of six, if not more. Final record: 11-5 (NFC West Champ, 3rd place NFC)
AFC East
Buffalo has too tough a schedule down the stretch to make a run at the AFC Wild Card. They play four of six on the road, with all four road games against teams that currently sit at .500 or better. They have a winnable home game against Miami and a tough home game against the Giants, and if they pull out a .500 record the rest of the way, it'll be just as impressive an achievement as their .500 record through ten games. Final record: 7-9
Miami has a pretty even mix of opportunities to spoil and games that I couldn't be paid to watch. If everything fell right, they could conceivably win three games down the stretch, with home games against the Jets, Baltimore, and Cincinnati. They'll lose all of their road contests, especially considering they get Pittsburgh, New England, and Buffalo. I don't see them going winless, and I think the best chances for that all-too-elusive first win will be against New York and Baltimore. They'll get at least one. Final record: 1-15
New England will be heavy favorites in every game this year. The early line for their week 12 home game against a potentially McNabb-less Philly team is 22.5 points. Yikes. They have only two road games left on their schedule, in Baltimore and in New York. Against all odds, I think there's a greater likelihood that they go undefeated than that they lose a game. If Pittsburgh can't beat the Jets, Arizona, and Denver on the road, what makes anyone think they can go into Gillette Stadium and take down the Pats? Final record: 16-0 (AFC East Champ, 1st place AFC)
New York has too many road games left to really climb back into any sort of respectability. They'll lose three of four of them, including in Dallas, in New England, and in Tennessee. They ought to beat Kansas City at home in week 17, but that's a crapshoot. Could the upset Cleveland at home? Sure, but I don't see it happening. Their best chance for a win will come in Miami, in a matchup nobody in their right mind will be interested in. Final record: 3-13
AFC North
Baltimore's playoff hopes are cooked. They have a full slate of super-tough games against win-hungry opponents fighting for playoff positions. I'd pick them to lose all but maybe one game, and their probably good for an upset in there. They hose New England, Indy, and Pittsburgh (yipe!), and travel to San Diego and Seattle. I'll probably pick them when they go to Miami, but that could be a loss, too. I can't see them pulling out more than one, MAYBE two wins. Screw it. Final record: 5-11
Cincinnati has a fairly light schedule the rest of the way. I see them passing Baltimore in the AFC North. They have home games against Tennessee, St. Louis, and Cleveland, and they go to Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Miami. There are probably three wins in there, as long as their offense is working. They could even jump up and sting Tennessee or Cleveland if they stay hot. Will it be enough to save Marvin Lewis's job? Final record: 6-10
Cleveland has a pretty easy run here to finish the season, and they look pretty good for the playoffs. Their biggest test comes in Arizona in week 13, but even that game is perfectly winnable. They hose Houston, Buffalo, and San Francisco, and they go to Arizona, the Jets, and Cincinnati. If nothing else, they'll put up big offensive numbers the rest of the way, and I see them getting to ten wins. Cleveland needs to win each of their remaining AFC games to realistically have a chance at the wild-card. Because I think they and Tennessee will be tied for the sixth spot, it'll come down to conference win percentage, and Cleveland is sitting at 4-4. If they get to 8-4 in the AFC, they're probably in. Since their remaining AFC games are against Houston, Buffalo, the Jets, and the Bengals, they'll probably be favored in each game. Final record: 10-6 (6th place AFC)
Pittsburgh can probably start making plans for the post-season. They've got four pretty easy wins left on their schedule: hosting Miami and Cincinnati, and then going to St. Louis and Baltimore. If they can take those, they'll sew up their division. The other two games, a road loss to New England and a tough home game against Jacksonville, could determine whether or not they have a first round bye in the playoffs. Final record: 11-5 (AFC North Champ, 3rd place AFC)
AFC South
Houston has done a hell of a job to scrape their way to .500 this late in the season, but they'll have a tough time staying there through the end. They go to Cleveland, Tennessee, and Indianapolis, and those will be three tough games. They hose Tampa, Denver, and Jacksonville, and those won't be too easy either. I see them playing tough in every game, and because I like the Texans, I'll go ahead and give 'em two wins. With the injuries they've suffered, seven wins is nothing to sniff at. Final record: 7-9
Indianapolis should have no problem winning their division, though they have a few tests remaining. Their remaining division contests are home games against Houston, Jacksonville, and Tennessee, and they've already taken road games from all three. They have Atlanta, Baltimore, and Oakland on the road, so even if they drop a disappointing home loss to one of their rivals, they should still get to eleven or twelve wins. That should be enough to get them to the post-season. Final record: 12-4 (AFC South Champs, 2nd place AFC)
Jacksonville has some pretty important games left. There isn't a game left on their schedule they couldn't win, but they've battled inconsistency all season long. Their remaining home games are favorable, with Buffalo, Carolina, and Oakland coming to town. They go to Indy, Pittsburgh, and Houston, and those will be critical games. If they stay healthy and consistent, I see them taking four of six. Final record: 11-5 (5th place AFC)
Tennessee needs four wins in their final six games to stay in the playoff discussion, and here they are: at Cincinnati, hosting Houston, at Kansas City, and hosting the Jets. Their other games are in Indianapolis, and hosting San Diego. They could take San Diego down, too. Here's the thing about their remaining games: Kansas City and New York have anemic offenses, and that works to Tennessee's advantage. Cincinnati, Houston, Indy, and San Diego all have the potential to explode, so those will be very dangerous games for Tennessee. As we saw against the Broncos on Monday night, they struggle when they have to play from behind because they prefer to work methodically in their offense, and they don't have many big play threats. Because of that, I think they won't get more than ten wins, but ten could be enough for a playoff spot. All their remaining games are against the AFC, and by my calculations, Tennessee would need to win five of six to get to the post-season. If they win five of six, they'll be 11-5, so they'd be in anyway. Point is, I don't see them winning five of six, so I see them on the outside looking in. Final record: 10-6
AFC West
Denver could very well win the AFC West. They host Kansas City and Minnesota, both tough tests for their horrid run defense. They go to Chicago, Oakland, Houston, and San Diego. The common theme for their remaining schedule is the running game: each of these teams features it heavily and will seriously test the thin defense of the Broncos. Because of that, I don't see Denver winning more than three of these games: the Chiefs at home, Minnesota at home, and in Oakland. That'll get 'em to 8-8, but will it be enough? No! Final record: 8-8
Kansas City will probably crumble down the stretch, though they don't have the toughest schedule. With home games against Oakland, San Diego, and Tennessee, they could do a little spoiling. At Denver and at Detroit they can do a little more. Their finale against the Jets ought to be one of the worst, least important games of the year. If LJ is back and healthy, they could very well win three more, but since I think the Chiefs are hiding the fact that LJ is done for the season to save the embarrassment of having to admit they made a mistake by dealing his primary backup, they'll probably get two at the most. Final record: 6-10
Oakland is a mess, and a lot depends on whether they go to the kid or not. If they do, they'll probably only stand a chance of winning one of their remaining games, either their trip to Arrowhead or their home contest with Denver. Hell, even if they don't start him, they're not beating Green Bay, Indy, Jacksonville, or San Diego. Final record: 3-13
San Diego probably will win the AFC West, and I hope they do it by getting above .500. They ought to beat Baltimore at home, Denver at home, Kansas City on the road, and Oakland on the road. That'll put 'em at 9-7. They could also take a home game against Detroit, that'd be even better. I don't love the Chargers, but I can't stand the idea of an 8-8 division winner. Honestly, I don't even like a 9-7 division winner, but the AFC West is just atrocious. Final record: 9-7 (AFC West Champ, 4th place AFC)
Picks coming later!
I am GREETEST! Now I am Laving! For No Raisin!
I didn't have so much fun this Sunday. Yeah, I went 11-4 on my picks, that's nice. My fantasy team was utter, utter trash behind the continued poor play of Drew Brees. I hate that guy. He's killed my chances, that bastard.
Anyway . . .
Houston over New Orleans, 23-10
My Pick: New Orleans over Houston, 34-27
Yeah, I was way off here. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson were awesome, whereas the Saints defense was garbage, and Drew Brees continues to suck. Reggie Bush didn't do jack in this one. The Saints are out of the playoff discussion. Tampa will win the South. Mark the NFC South as one more division that has officially sorted itself out. Yay! By the by, the NFC East and the AFC South are entirely .500 or better, top to bottom. I have to say, I think that's really something.
Indianapolis over Kansas City, 13-10
My Pick: Indianapolis over Kansas City, 24-10
Yeesh. There are probably a few Indy fans tugging at their collars right about now. They very nearly pulled a Pittsburgh and crapped the bed against a woefully incompetent opponent. Payton Manning could hardly have played any worse, but I've got to think that comes down to there being basically no healthy targets on his offense. The thing is, they've got to figure this receiver situation out or they won't advance in the playoffs. It's ok to rest Marvin Harrison until he's 100%, but they'd better be able to expect a whole hell of a lot more from their offense once he gets back, and I'm not sure one receiver makes that big a difference. Indy loses this game to just about any other team in football.
Minnesota over Oakland, 29-22
My Pick: Minnesota over Oakland, 10-7
I got the result right. Nice game from Chester Taylor. That's it!
New York Giants over Detroit Lions, 16-10
My Pick: Detroit Lions over New York Giants, 28-10
You know, everyone is using this game as evidence that the Giants will not collapse this season. I'm not sold on that, but this was an important win for them. I correctly predicted a big injury to a key player, as Mathias Kiwanuka broke his leg in this one. The thing is, to only put up 16 points on the Lions, who got fewer than 20 rushing yards for the second week in a row, isn't a sign of a humming offense. In fact, it's something to worry about. Why can't Eli Manning seem to get the ball in the endzone? As for Detroit, how does that ten win prediction look now? They've got two games left against Green Bay, and they need to go 4-2 the rest of the way to get to that all important mark. Hmmmmmm . . . not if they can't get 50 yards rushing in two games.
Philadelphia over Miami, 17-7
My Pick: Philadelphia over Miami, 31-17
Gross. Philadelphia gets to .500 just in time to lose their quarterback. Nice. Hey Philly fans, you get your wish! Good luck with A. J. Feeley!
Jacksonville over San Diego, 24-17
My Pick: Jacksonville over San Diego, 24-20
Good win for the Jaguars. They're a good team, especially with David Garrard running the show. He may never put up huge passing stats, but he's efficient, doesn't turn the ball over, and finds his open receivers and allows them to make plays. He's not Trent Dilfer: he doesn't go out there to not lose the game, but like Dilfer's Super Bowl run in Baltimore, he doesn't kill his team with turnovers and he sustains drives. As for San Diego, did you see Maurice Jones-Drew flatten Sean Merriman? Holy shit! Honestly, it reminded me of two things: who was that huge guy the Packers drafted way back when after he took his senior year off to lift weights at Venice Beach? You know the guy, he was using 'roids, and as soon as he came off the juice he was getting tossed around by d-lineman like a ragdoll? Also, Lattimer from The Program. The theme there is players who came off the juice and wilted like the Italian parsley in my fridge. I hope that's not the case with Merriman, but in case you missed it: Merriman, all 272 pounds of him, came in on a pass rush near the goal line and was absolutely Truck-Sticked by Jones-Drew, who goes about 212 soaking wet. Flattened. He never got near David Garrard, who easily tossed a touchdown to Mercedes Lewis on the play. Wow.
Arizona over Cincinnati, 35-27
My Pick: Cincinnati over Arizona, 28-24
This was such a typical Bengals game. They came out totally flat and let Arizona get out ahead. Then Palmer got going when they abandoned the running game, Cincy climbed back into it, and Palmer had gaudy numbers. Then they killed themselves with turnovers and Arizona ran away with it. You know what? Carson Palmer sucks until he does this for a team that isn't the most fragile, baby-ish bullshit bunch in the NFL. He sucks. Congratulations on tossing for over 300 yards for the umpteenth time in a losing effort. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson and Chris Henry all suck too. Win a meaningful game, for a change. I hate that team.
Cleveland over Baltimore, 33-30
My Pick: Cleveland over Baltimore, 27-19
I almost puked when the goal-post refs blew the call on that game-tying field goal. Ask my wife. I hit a pitch in my whining that very nearly shattered every glass in my kitchen. I had to change the channel for 5 minutes and meditate back down to a calm state. No, really. Shame on Baltimore for almost spoiling one of the great stories of the 2007 season. And seriously, shame on Brian "Big Baby" Billick for daring to complain about the call on that all-important field goal at the end of regulation. Would he dare suggest they got it wrong? Every fan in America knew that ball was in the second they showed the slow-mo replay. Also, way to go Cleveland! They took the season series from the Ravens, and they did it by shoving Jamal Lewis down Baltimore's throat. I would have preferred a few touchdown passes from Derek Anderson, but hey, I'll take it. Cleveland is in big-time position for a post-season appearance. Their schedule from here is CAKE. Whereas Jacksonville and Tennessee have some tough games left, the Browns have diddly-poo. Nice. A real race down the stretch. Go Browns!
Green Bay over Carolina, 31-17
My Pick: Green Bay over Carolina, 21-14
That's how you do it, right there. A banged-up, hanging-on team comes to town with virtually no reason to win, and you pound 'em. Favre was great, and the Packers got help from the running game for the second week in a row. Honestly, if I were John Fox, I'd start sitting everybody. With as many injuries as they have, they ought to start healing up for next year and developing their depth. This team is D-U-N, and every win from here on just ruins their draft position. I'm not saying they should tank, I hate that idea, but I do think they have nothing left to play for this season and ought to start thinking about the future. Since they have to have figured out that David Carr ain't the answer as a primary back-up, let alone a future replacement for Jake Delhomme, they ought to take a look at the kid, Moore, and see if he's got a future with the team. They ought to keep working the ball to other receivers and tight-ends to see if they can get any chemistry going with non-Steve Smith options. Most importantly, they've got to see where they stand with defensive depth, because that unit needs an overhaul.
Tampa Bay over Atlanta, 31-7
My Pick: Tampa Bay over Atlanta, 28-7
Nailed it. Tampa Bay is exactly the kind of team to take care of business in this kind of game. I'm officially giving up on Bobby Petrino. I like Byron Leftwich as much as anybody (more so, even), but the move to Leftwich looks so utterly arbitrary after comparing the performances of the two options on Atlanta. Harrington has been the only guy with a pulse on Atlanta's offense most of the season, he's the more mobile quarterback, he's been with the team longer, and he's performed better than Leftwich in games. There's no reason to go with Byron. They treated him like he was the established starter who was taking his position back after an injury. What a crock. He started one game and couldn't finish it, and he's been limited in practice ever since. Petrino just stinks. Maybe his offensive mind will translate to the NFL someday, but he's got a hell of a lot to learn about coaching a team. From the start of training camp, this guy has been alienating his players and undermining their success.
New York Jets over Pittsburgh, 19-16
My Pick: Pittsburgh over New York Jets, 31-16
There you have it, the biggest upset of the NFL season so far. The official identity of Mike Tomlin's Steelers is the tough, talented team that overlooks weak road teams. Take 3 points off the spread in any road game in which the Steelers are favored for the rest of the season. They have some ugly, ugly losses this season, and they're definitely now only the fourth best team in the AFC. I'd take a healthy Jacksonville team over them any day, in any stadium. As for the Jets, they've found their future quarterback in Kellen Clemens. I love this kind of thing. Up with gutsy young QUALITY quarterbacks! Down with sucky stop-gaps! I don't mean to dis Chad Pennington, but I'm frankly sick to death of quarterbacks in the NFL who can't do more than not lose games, and barely that. I hope the Jets work with and develop this Clemens kid, he's definitely got the tools and makeup to have a nice career.
Seattle over Chicago, 30-23
My Pick: Seattle over Chicago, 21-19
I predicted this would be a close one, and you know why? Because Seattle stinks. They're the NFC version of the Cincinnati Bengals. Why are they leading their division, whereas the Bengals are in the AFC toilet? Because the NFC West is so goddamn terrible, that's why. Chicago has guts, they'll continue to play teams tough the rest of the way, but they've got a lot of work to do in the off-season. Arizona is hanging in there behind Seattle, they're the tougher team, they've got more weapons, better uniforms, and anything that resembles testicles. Guess who I'll be rooting for out west?
Dallas over Washington, 28-23
My Pick: Dallas over Washington, 35-20
I refuse to be a negative jerk about this. Jason Campbell played his ass off. Santana Moss had a big game. The Skins banged up offensive line worked hard and played with pride. I was disappointed that the Redskins managed to lose another game they led at halftime, but they were such overwhelming underdogs in this game, I was just happy they were in the game. The absence of Sean Taylor really hurt this team, but that's not to say the Skins secondary players mailed it in or even played all that poorly. They gave up three big plays all day and one huge pass interference, and that's all it took. I would have liked to have seen Gregg Williams dial up a few more blitzes, especially after it became pretty obvious that his front four couldn't generate any pressure on Tony Romo, who played a great game in a pretty stable pocket. I think the Skins undoing in this game was their failure to make defensive adjustments in the second half, but hey, that's who Gregg Williams is. Apparently this guy needs the bye week to make adjustments, and you only get one of those a season. The Skins won't make the playoffs, but I really, really like the team and I'm excited about their future.
St. Louis over San Francisco, 13-9
My Pick: St. Louis over San Francisco, 30-17
I'm going to say a strange thing here: the 1-8 Rams, on the road, should have won this game by a much wider margin, against a team that was predicted to make the playoffs, and the fact that they only put 13 up on the board is a huge disappointment. Ha! The Niners are just TERRIBLE. The Miami Dolphins are starting a backup rookie QB, a backup runningback, a punt returner at receiver, and a defensive group so old Jesus signed their yearbooks. (YES! I love that joke!) But you know what? The Niners are not only statistically worse, but I'd take the Dolphins over the Niners IN SAN FRANCISCO. The 49ers are the worst team in football. They wouldn't make the Hunan Dry Cleaning and Take-Out Chinese Cuisine Bowl in Fairbanks, Alaska if they played a Pac-10 schedule. Free Frank Gore! Free Frank Gore! Free Frank Gore!
New England over Buffalo, 56-10
My Pick: New England over Buffalo, 45-14
Yep, the Pats sure did win this game. What's more boring than a game between the out-of-playoff-contention Vikings and the out-of-playoff-contention Raiders? A game between anybody and the Pats, officially the least likable team in NFL history. I don't even care enough about them to hate them. I don't like them, they bore me to death. If the Superbowl is New England against the Cowboys, I will almost certainly not watch.
Denver over Tennessee, 34-20
My Pick: Tennessee over Denver, 17-13
I made a hell of a case for why Denver would win this game, but I couldn't stomach it. Ah well. The truth is, I really enjoyed this game, from beginning to end, and I think both teams have a lot to be excited about. No, seriously. Vince Young threw the ball extremely well all day. Because he's a young quarterback and was playing from behind, he forced a couple of balls there at the end that hurt his team. Every quarterback does it from time to time; every quarterback does not throw for 300+ yards and a score, rush for 70+ yards and a score, and march his team up and down the field against one of the NFL's best secondaries. Lendale White continues to be a force, though he didn't get as many carries as I'd predicted. More than anything, White moves the pile and punishes tacklers, and he looks to me like a guy with a bright future. Tennessee needs some receivers, though. I like Brandon Jones, but he and his wide-out buddies need to learn to look the ball in. They dropped probably 5 or 6 passes, and 1 or 2 of those would have been huge plays, including a perfect throw up the sidelines to Jones, and then a strike to Roydell Williams that would have easily gone for a score. This team has all the pieces they need to be a contender for a long time if they can just add another dangerous receiver. As far as the Broncos go, look, I've crapped on this team at times this year, and Mike Shanahan in particular. Did he screw up a working formula last season by blowing up his defense? Sure. Is his team only a few field goals away from the bottom of the NFL? Yep. On the other hand, he's got a QB who is still basically in his rookie season, a rookie top receiver, a second-year back in Selvin Young, a mostly young and unproven defense, and a whole host of new coaches around him, but his team is at .500 and in position to win their division. More than that, when you watch the Broncos play, they look like a professional group. Jay Cutler looks like a good quarterback. They can still run the ball. Their defense stinks, but they've done enough to get five wins. I'm backing off Mike Shanahan for a while, ultimately because I trust him to come up with a good game plan, make adjustments, and get good performances from his offensive players. It's hard to evaluate Mike Shanahan the coach separately from Mike Shanahan the personnel guy. As a personnel guy, he's out of his league. As a football coach, there aren't many better. There, I said it. I wish Glen Martinez had not returned that punt for a touchdown. Not that I have anything against the guy, but the game would have gone from highly entertaining to really special if the Titans had been down by only one score late in the fourth. Anyway, fun game. \
Two things coming this week: picks for week 12 and a glance ahead at the rest of the season, with playoff predictions.
Anyway . . .
Houston over New Orleans, 23-10
My Pick: New Orleans over Houston, 34-27
Yeah, I was way off here. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson were awesome, whereas the Saints defense was garbage, and Drew Brees continues to suck. Reggie Bush didn't do jack in this one. The Saints are out of the playoff discussion. Tampa will win the South. Mark the NFC South as one more division that has officially sorted itself out. Yay! By the by, the NFC East and the AFC South are entirely .500 or better, top to bottom. I have to say, I think that's really something.
Indianapolis over Kansas City, 13-10
My Pick: Indianapolis over Kansas City, 24-10
Yeesh. There are probably a few Indy fans tugging at their collars right about now. They very nearly pulled a Pittsburgh and crapped the bed against a woefully incompetent opponent. Payton Manning could hardly have played any worse, but I've got to think that comes down to there being basically no healthy targets on his offense. The thing is, they've got to figure this receiver situation out or they won't advance in the playoffs. It's ok to rest Marvin Harrison until he's 100%, but they'd better be able to expect a whole hell of a lot more from their offense once he gets back, and I'm not sure one receiver makes that big a difference. Indy loses this game to just about any other team in football.
Minnesota over Oakland, 29-22
My Pick: Minnesota over Oakland, 10-7
I got the result right. Nice game from Chester Taylor. That's it!
New York Giants over Detroit Lions, 16-10
My Pick: Detroit Lions over New York Giants, 28-10
You know, everyone is using this game as evidence that the Giants will not collapse this season. I'm not sold on that, but this was an important win for them. I correctly predicted a big injury to a key player, as Mathias Kiwanuka broke his leg in this one. The thing is, to only put up 16 points on the Lions, who got fewer than 20 rushing yards for the second week in a row, isn't a sign of a humming offense. In fact, it's something to worry about. Why can't Eli Manning seem to get the ball in the endzone? As for Detroit, how does that ten win prediction look now? They've got two games left against Green Bay, and they need to go 4-2 the rest of the way to get to that all important mark. Hmmmmmm . . . not if they can't get 50 yards rushing in two games.
Philadelphia over Miami, 17-7
My Pick: Philadelphia over Miami, 31-17
Gross. Philadelphia gets to .500 just in time to lose their quarterback. Nice. Hey Philly fans, you get your wish! Good luck with A. J. Feeley!
Jacksonville over San Diego, 24-17
My Pick: Jacksonville over San Diego, 24-20
Good win for the Jaguars. They're a good team, especially with David Garrard running the show. He may never put up huge passing stats, but he's efficient, doesn't turn the ball over, and finds his open receivers and allows them to make plays. He's not Trent Dilfer: he doesn't go out there to not lose the game, but like Dilfer's Super Bowl run in Baltimore, he doesn't kill his team with turnovers and he sustains drives. As for San Diego, did you see Maurice Jones-Drew flatten Sean Merriman? Holy shit! Honestly, it reminded me of two things: who was that huge guy the Packers drafted way back when after he took his senior year off to lift weights at Venice Beach? You know the guy, he was using 'roids, and as soon as he came off the juice he was getting tossed around by d-lineman like a ragdoll? Also, Lattimer from The Program. The theme there is players who came off the juice and wilted like the Italian parsley in my fridge. I hope that's not the case with Merriman, but in case you missed it: Merriman, all 272 pounds of him, came in on a pass rush near the goal line and was absolutely Truck-Sticked by Jones-Drew, who goes about 212 soaking wet. Flattened. He never got near David Garrard, who easily tossed a touchdown to Mercedes Lewis on the play. Wow.
Arizona over Cincinnati, 35-27
My Pick: Cincinnati over Arizona, 28-24
This was such a typical Bengals game. They came out totally flat and let Arizona get out ahead. Then Palmer got going when they abandoned the running game, Cincy climbed back into it, and Palmer had gaudy numbers. Then they killed themselves with turnovers and Arizona ran away with it. You know what? Carson Palmer sucks until he does this for a team that isn't the most fragile, baby-ish bullshit bunch in the NFL. He sucks. Congratulations on tossing for over 300 yards for the umpteenth time in a losing effort. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson and Chris Henry all suck too. Win a meaningful game, for a change. I hate that team.
Cleveland over Baltimore, 33-30
My Pick: Cleveland over Baltimore, 27-19
I almost puked when the goal-post refs blew the call on that game-tying field goal. Ask my wife. I hit a pitch in my whining that very nearly shattered every glass in my kitchen. I had to change the channel for 5 minutes and meditate back down to a calm state. No, really. Shame on Baltimore for almost spoiling one of the great stories of the 2007 season. And seriously, shame on Brian "Big Baby" Billick for daring to complain about the call on that all-important field goal at the end of regulation. Would he dare suggest they got it wrong? Every fan in America knew that ball was in the second they showed the slow-mo replay. Also, way to go Cleveland! They took the season series from the Ravens, and they did it by shoving Jamal Lewis down Baltimore's throat. I would have preferred a few touchdown passes from Derek Anderson, but hey, I'll take it. Cleveland is in big-time position for a post-season appearance. Their schedule from here is CAKE. Whereas Jacksonville and Tennessee have some tough games left, the Browns have diddly-poo. Nice. A real race down the stretch. Go Browns!
Green Bay over Carolina, 31-17
My Pick: Green Bay over Carolina, 21-14
That's how you do it, right there. A banged-up, hanging-on team comes to town with virtually no reason to win, and you pound 'em. Favre was great, and the Packers got help from the running game for the second week in a row. Honestly, if I were John Fox, I'd start sitting everybody. With as many injuries as they have, they ought to start healing up for next year and developing their depth. This team is D-U-N, and every win from here on just ruins their draft position. I'm not saying they should tank, I hate that idea, but I do think they have nothing left to play for this season and ought to start thinking about the future. Since they have to have figured out that David Carr ain't the answer as a primary back-up, let alone a future replacement for Jake Delhomme, they ought to take a look at the kid, Moore, and see if he's got a future with the team. They ought to keep working the ball to other receivers and tight-ends to see if they can get any chemistry going with non-Steve Smith options. Most importantly, they've got to see where they stand with defensive depth, because that unit needs an overhaul.
Tampa Bay over Atlanta, 31-7
My Pick: Tampa Bay over Atlanta, 28-7
Nailed it. Tampa Bay is exactly the kind of team to take care of business in this kind of game. I'm officially giving up on Bobby Petrino. I like Byron Leftwich as much as anybody (more so, even), but the move to Leftwich looks so utterly arbitrary after comparing the performances of the two options on Atlanta. Harrington has been the only guy with a pulse on Atlanta's offense most of the season, he's the more mobile quarterback, he's been with the team longer, and he's performed better than Leftwich in games. There's no reason to go with Byron. They treated him like he was the established starter who was taking his position back after an injury. What a crock. He started one game and couldn't finish it, and he's been limited in practice ever since. Petrino just stinks. Maybe his offensive mind will translate to the NFL someday, but he's got a hell of a lot to learn about coaching a team. From the start of training camp, this guy has been alienating his players and undermining their success.
New York Jets over Pittsburgh, 19-16
My Pick: Pittsburgh over New York Jets, 31-16
There you have it, the biggest upset of the NFL season so far. The official identity of Mike Tomlin's Steelers is the tough, talented team that overlooks weak road teams. Take 3 points off the spread in any road game in which the Steelers are favored for the rest of the season. They have some ugly, ugly losses this season, and they're definitely now only the fourth best team in the AFC. I'd take a healthy Jacksonville team over them any day, in any stadium. As for the Jets, they've found their future quarterback in Kellen Clemens. I love this kind of thing. Up with gutsy young QUALITY quarterbacks! Down with sucky stop-gaps! I don't mean to dis Chad Pennington, but I'm frankly sick to death of quarterbacks in the NFL who can't do more than not lose games, and barely that. I hope the Jets work with and develop this Clemens kid, he's definitely got the tools and makeup to have a nice career.
Seattle over Chicago, 30-23
My Pick: Seattle over Chicago, 21-19
I predicted this would be a close one, and you know why? Because Seattle stinks. They're the NFC version of the Cincinnati Bengals. Why are they leading their division, whereas the Bengals are in the AFC toilet? Because the NFC West is so goddamn terrible, that's why. Chicago has guts, they'll continue to play teams tough the rest of the way, but they've got a lot of work to do in the off-season. Arizona is hanging in there behind Seattle, they're the tougher team, they've got more weapons, better uniforms, and anything that resembles testicles. Guess who I'll be rooting for out west?
Dallas over Washington, 28-23
My Pick: Dallas over Washington, 35-20
I refuse to be a negative jerk about this. Jason Campbell played his ass off. Santana Moss had a big game. The Skins banged up offensive line worked hard and played with pride. I was disappointed that the Redskins managed to lose another game they led at halftime, but they were such overwhelming underdogs in this game, I was just happy they were in the game. The absence of Sean Taylor really hurt this team, but that's not to say the Skins secondary players mailed it in or even played all that poorly. They gave up three big plays all day and one huge pass interference, and that's all it took. I would have liked to have seen Gregg Williams dial up a few more blitzes, especially after it became pretty obvious that his front four couldn't generate any pressure on Tony Romo, who played a great game in a pretty stable pocket. I think the Skins undoing in this game was their failure to make defensive adjustments in the second half, but hey, that's who Gregg Williams is. Apparently this guy needs the bye week to make adjustments, and you only get one of those a season. The Skins won't make the playoffs, but I really, really like the team and I'm excited about their future.
St. Louis over San Francisco, 13-9
My Pick: St. Louis over San Francisco, 30-17
I'm going to say a strange thing here: the 1-8 Rams, on the road, should have won this game by a much wider margin, against a team that was predicted to make the playoffs, and the fact that they only put 13 up on the board is a huge disappointment. Ha! The Niners are just TERRIBLE. The Miami Dolphins are starting a backup rookie QB, a backup runningback, a punt returner at receiver, and a defensive group so old Jesus signed their yearbooks. (YES! I love that joke!) But you know what? The Niners are not only statistically worse, but I'd take the Dolphins over the Niners IN SAN FRANCISCO. The 49ers are the worst team in football. They wouldn't make the Hunan Dry Cleaning and Take-Out Chinese Cuisine Bowl in Fairbanks, Alaska if they played a Pac-10 schedule. Free Frank Gore! Free Frank Gore! Free Frank Gore!
New England over Buffalo, 56-10
My Pick: New England over Buffalo, 45-14
Yep, the Pats sure did win this game. What's more boring than a game between the out-of-playoff-contention Vikings and the out-of-playoff-contention Raiders? A game between anybody and the Pats, officially the least likable team in NFL history. I don't even care enough about them to hate them. I don't like them, they bore me to death. If the Superbowl is New England against the Cowboys, I will almost certainly not watch.
Denver over Tennessee, 34-20
My Pick: Tennessee over Denver, 17-13
I made a hell of a case for why Denver would win this game, but I couldn't stomach it. Ah well. The truth is, I really enjoyed this game, from beginning to end, and I think both teams have a lot to be excited about. No, seriously. Vince Young threw the ball extremely well all day. Because he's a young quarterback and was playing from behind, he forced a couple of balls there at the end that hurt his team. Every quarterback does it from time to time; every quarterback does not throw for 300+ yards and a score, rush for 70+ yards and a score, and march his team up and down the field against one of the NFL's best secondaries. Lendale White continues to be a force, though he didn't get as many carries as I'd predicted. More than anything, White moves the pile and punishes tacklers, and he looks to me like a guy with a bright future. Tennessee needs some receivers, though. I like Brandon Jones, but he and his wide-out buddies need to learn to look the ball in. They dropped probably 5 or 6 passes, and 1 or 2 of those would have been huge plays, including a perfect throw up the sidelines to Jones, and then a strike to Roydell Williams that would have easily gone for a score. This team has all the pieces they need to be a contender for a long time if they can just add another dangerous receiver. As far as the Broncos go, look, I've crapped on this team at times this year, and Mike Shanahan in particular. Did he screw up a working formula last season by blowing up his defense? Sure. Is his team only a few field goals away from the bottom of the NFL? Yep. On the other hand, he's got a QB who is still basically in his rookie season, a rookie top receiver, a second-year back in Selvin Young, a mostly young and unproven defense, and a whole host of new coaches around him, but his team is at .500 and in position to win their division. More than that, when you watch the Broncos play, they look like a professional group. Jay Cutler looks like a good quarterback. They can still run the ball. Their defense stinks, but they've done enough to get five wins. I'm backing off Mike Shanahan for a while, ultimately because I trust him to come up with a good game plan, make adjustments, and get good performances from his offensive players. It's hard to evaluate Mike Shanahan the coach separately from Mike Shanahan the personnel guy. As a personnel guy, he's out of his league. As a football coach, there aren't many better. There, I said it. I wish Glen Martinez had not returned that punt for a touchdown. Not that I have anything against the guy, but the game would have gone from highly entertaining to really special if the Titans had been down by only one score late in the fourth. Anyway, fun game. \
Two things coming this week: picks for week 12 and a glance ahead at the rest of the season, with playoff predictions.
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