A few things:
1. The Arizona Cardinals also passed on Adrian Peterson. I have to say, this is the one that I struggle with the most. On the one hand, they have Edgerrin James, J. J. Arrington, and Marcel Shipp, and that really ought to be a strong, deep backfield. They also have long struggled with their offensive line. On the other hand, Levi Jones was a tremendous reach with the sixth overall pick, and though they needed offensive line help more than backfield help, they could have and should have traded down if their intention was to fill that need. Had they taken ADAP with the sixth overall pick, that would have caused some pretty serious turmoil with Edge, who is one of the few tough, starting veterans with winning in his background on the whole team. My final verdict on the ADAP pick is this: I think the Skins, Browns, and Lions are all better off with their draft picks, and their records support that. I think the Bucs, Raiders, and Cardinals would be a lot better off if they'd taken Peterson, but there are varying degrees of "d'oh!" factor for each. In all cases, I understand the rationale for passing on Peterson as much if not more than I would have understood the rationale for picking him.
2. Two reasons we live in a screwy country here in the US of A: as of this morning, Republican lawmakers were fighting a bill that would prevent workplace discrimination based on sexual identity. Their rationale was based on the suggestion that by prohibiting sex-based discrimination, the law would, in fact, be discriminating against religious communities who reject homosexuality, since they would not be allowed to discriminate in their hiring practices. Nice. Second: A report today indicates that 25% of all homeless people in the US are veterans. Holy shit.
3. Jay Cutler is gonna go for the Broncos on the road. That's good news for Denver fans, and great news for my fantasy team. I need points from Brandon Marshall. The Chiefs are saying Larry Johnson might be out for a few weeks; I'll say! I think they're hushing the fact that he's done for the year. It sure makes the Michael Bennett trade look as stupid as possible. The Eagles are without Sean Considine, their other safety, for the rest of the season. That may not seem like much, but they don't have a lot of depth in the secondary.
4. Joe Gibbs made a comment to Washington area sports media that the Skins would like to have more success on shots deep down the field. While I agree that such an improvement would be nice, it might be great if the Redskins make an effort to establish any kind of passing game in the middle part of the field. They're basically giving away the entire center of the defense every game, relying on receiver screens and out patterns to get their passing game going. First of all, the receiver screen should be a gadget-type, big hitter type of play, it should not be your go-to pass option. Second of all, the out route is the most difficult throw in all of football and the one most likely to be intercepted. Third of all, the Skins have quick receivers, a great tight end, and two backs who can catch the ball out of the backfield. They don't have a big, tough, over the middle receiver, but they should be able to have success if they use Cooley as a bigger target in the seam, Moss and Randle El on crossing patterns, and then Portis and Betts on check-downs and screens. By giving up the middle of the field, they allow the defense to flow to the ball as a unit and utilize the sideline as an extra defender, and they require their young quarterback to repeatedly make difficult throws.
That's just an observation, but I really think the Skins ought to try to establish their passing game around the hashmarks.
I went with Drew Brees to cover Tom Brady's bye week for my fantasy team. Brees has the Rams and is coming off a 445-yard effort in week 9. Go Saints!
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Big Sunday Coming Up!
Scrolling down the list of matchups for Week 10, I see a number of intriguing matchups and only a couple of real duds. Virtually evry game has some sort of playoff implication, with the exception of the turd between Chicago and Oakland. How the hell did that Niners/Sea-Jacks game get Monday night love? What a turkey that is! Anyway, on to the picks:
Atlanta @ Carolina
This is an ugly matchup and I wouldn't want to watch it even if I lived in one of those towns. Atlanta is coming off an ugly road win over the terrible 49ers, and Carolina is coming off a hideous home loss to the sputtering Titans. Both teams couldn't find their ass if you punched 'em in it, and this one has all the makings of one of the more awful, ugly games all season. Atlanta just refuses to give up on Warrick Dunn, even when all signs point to Jerrius Norwood being the superior runner. The question in Carolina is whether they'll be able to get the ball to Steve Smith and will David Carr avoid giving the game away. Neither team has shit for offense, neither team is especially scary on defense. I'm giving the nod to Carolina because they're at home and they have the superior head coach.
Panthers over Falcons, 19-16
Minnesota @ Green Bay
Adrian Peterson managed 112 yards on 12 carries against the Packers defense last go 'round, and now that he's the feature back, he figures to get at least twice as many carries. There's a very realistic chance that Brad Childress will crap the bed again and the Vikings will end up throwing the ball 35 times, but if he doesn't and they don't, this could be a very interesting game. The Vikings have a pretty bad secondary and haven't had much success defending the pass, and Green Bay has been one of the more explosive passing attacks in the league. Because Green Bay's offense plays to Minny's defensive weakness and because it's in Green Bay after two Packer road wins, I'm taking McCarthy and Favre.
Packers over Vikings, 27-17
Denver @ Kansas City
I have a hard time picking either of these teams. I can't stand the Chiefs, and without Larry Johnson they have almost nothing going for them. The Broncos have been terrible, they just got steam-rolled by the Lions, and now they go to Arrowhead Stadium. They also might be without Jay Cutler and Travis Henry. I keep coming back to the whole Larry Johnson thing, I just can't imagine the Chiefs mustering anything like a competent offense without their star back. I know they're at home, but I'd expect Herm Edwards to need 2 years and a four leaf clover to overcome the loss of his workhorse. Denver stinks: so do the Chiefs. Homefield ought to mean something, but it hasn't so far. Fuck it. Only a dipshit would call this an upset.
Broncos over Chiefs, 13-6
Buffalo @ Miami
I just can't see the Dolphins moving the ball in this game. Buffalo's defense has been tough for the last 4-5 weeks, and the Dolphins don't have their top back, quarterback, or receiver for this game. They already have no defense, and the Bills look like they might have found a little rhythm with the ball. Also, Buffalo is about as tough-minded a team as there is and they've got a chance to move a game above .500 with a win here. Why let the Phins up off the mat?
Bills over Dolphins, 31-20
St. Louis @ New Orleans
This could be a trap game for the Saints. After two impressive wins in a row, they get the horrid, banged up and forgotten Rams. The Rams are coming off a bye week and might be as healthy as they've been all season. They've shown some signs of life on their offense, notably taking a halftime lead before dropping a game to the Browns in week 8. Look, no one is going to pick the Rams in this one, but it just might be a Bill Simmons "Obvious Game". Here's hoping the Saints don't crap the bed.
Saints over Rams, 35-24
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
If the Steelers are capable of playing like they did on Sunday week in and week out, they might not lose again this season. I really like the Browns, and a win on the road in Pittsburgh to split the series would be a monumental achievement for them, but I just don't see it happening. The Steelers have outscored opponents at home by nearly 100 points this season, and have outscored division foes by nearly 70 points. This is a division home game for them, and that could be a bad sign for the Browns. On the other hand, the Browns have some explosive offensive weapons and a lot of momentum, and I think Romeo Crennell is a hell of a coach. I'm hoping for a close, well-fought match, and I expect the Steelers to pull it out.
Steelers over Browns, 38-31
Jacksonville @ Tennessee
This looks to me like one of the harder games to call this week. Tennessee has the better record and the home-field advantage, but their offense has been putrid crap for a few games in a row now. Jacksonville has been stuck with Quinn Gray at quarterback and just played perhaps their worst defensive game of the year in their loss to New Orleans. Week 9 aside, both teams have strong, sturdy defenses that will stuff the run, which should make this game come down to passing plays and turnovers. Normally I'd expect the Jaguars to come out ahead in that kind of matchup, but Quinn Gray has yet to have one of those "Oh God NOOOO!!" starts, and this is the best defense he's faced so far. Jeff Fisher is the better coach, the game is in Tennessee, I'm taking the team with the better record.
Titans over Jaguars, 14-10
Philadelphia @ Washington
I won't be shocked at all if Philly wins this game. Looking at their records, you'd expect a Washington win. The Skins took them down in Philly earlier in the year, and the Eagles don't seem to have much life right now. Then again, I can't remember the last time the Eagles didn't play the Redskins tough, and the Skins offense looks pretty friggin' dreadful headed into this one. This is such an important home game for the Redskins, if they want to stay in the hunt for the division and not slip in the Wild Card race, they can't afford to let Philly off the mat. The tough thing about picking against the Eagles is that I'm never sure how many scores it will take to get the win. The Eagles are capable of dropping 56 on the Lions, they're also capable of putting 13 on the board against the Packers. Here it is: if the Skins win the turnover battle and score 21 offensive points, they should win the game.
Redskins over Eagles, 28-17 There's a defensive touchdown in there for good measure.
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
This one comes down to Chad Johnson playing. If he plays, Cincinnati wins. Period. With Rudi Johnson healthy and productive, Kenny Watson playing well, Chris Henry back from suspension, T. J. Houshmanzadeh lighting it up, and a healthy Chad Johnson, the Bengals ought to be able to score 17 points, and that should be all it takes to beat the Ravens, who can't score for shit and are collapsing. I do not believe in the Ravens as a contending team at all. I know the Bengals are bad, but I'd take their roster over the Ravens any day of the week. Call it the upset special if you must.
Bengals over Ravens, 28-13
Detroit @ Arizona
I just have a hunch on this one. The Cardinals really need a win, and the Lions aren't a very good road team. The Lions are rolling: if they win, I'll be thrilled. But the NFC West is still in play, its still very much there for the taking, and Arizona still has a lot of offensive weapons. The Cardinals are at home, and I just have a hunch. Fuck it, I'm going with my hunch.
Cardinals over Lions, 23-20
Dallas @ New York Giants
Two things really work for the Giants in this one: home field advantage and the bye week. They've had two weeks to prepare for this Cowboys team, they're at home, and they've already faced them this season. Honestly, the Cowboys have the third most impressive resume in the NFL: they've only lost to the Pats and they have a quality win over the now 6-2 Giants. I still see both teams as fragile, but this is a different Giants team than the one the Cowboys took down on opening week. This should be a very exciting, hotly contested match-up, featuring aggressive defenses and big-play offenses. I think the quarterback that plays better will win the game. I'm taking the home team in a mild upset.
Giants over Cowboys, 27-20
Chicago @ Oakland
I don't know, I just don't care about this game. I'm hoping Lane Kiffin goes to JaMarcus Russell at some point in the contest, otherwise there'll be no reason to watch. Oakland has gotten no home boost this season, and their games are getting blacked out in their market. Chicago's had a bye, I'm takin' 'em.
Bears over Raiders, 20-13
Indianapolis @ San Diego
When the NFL took a look at this matchup in the juicy week 10 Sunday night slot, they envisioned a matchup of two of the AFC's powerhouses duking it out for homefield advantage. That would've been dramatic. Instead, you've got an Indianapolis team that has been quietly killing everyone this season travelling to burned-down San Diego to take on a Chargers team that is just hoping to make the playoffs in the worst division in the NFL. Strangely, this might be even more dramatic. The Chargers desperately need this game. I can't possibly pick Norv Turner over Tony Dungy. I can't possibly pick Philip Rivers over Payton Manning. There's no effing way I'm picking the Chargers in this game. Would I be shocked if they pulled it off? Not really. LT is still probably the best player on the field. But the Colts just narrowly lost to the terrifying Patriots, and they're still 100 times better than San Diego.
Colts over Chargers, 34-21
San Francisco @ Seattle
Here it is, the Monday nighter nobody wants to see. Happy, West Coast? You get your shit-ass teams on the big stage! Seattle ought to win this game; if they don't, the NFL should just contract the whole NFC West. The Seahawks came off their bye and took a loss to the Browns, while the Niners dropped a home game to the god-awful Falcons. Who the fuck cares about this game? This is a nice little condescending pat on the back to the Pacific Northwest, whose teams suck in all major sports. Live it up! If Frank Gore plays, this could be interesting. He probably won't, so it probably won't be.
Seahawks over 49ers, 41-10
Next week we've got Tennessee at Denver in another terrible Monday nighter, followed by Miami at Pittsburgh (that should be a bloodbath), followed by New England at Baltimore (HA!), followed by New Orleans at Atlanta (is there a trend here?), then Chicago at Minnesota, then Denver at San Diego in week 16 to finish the MNF season. In short, there isn't even one Monday night game left on the season featuring two playoff teams. Didn't I hear something about flexible scheduling at some point? What the hell?
One more thing: Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Washington are the teams that passed on Adrian Peterson in the NFL draft. Detroit got Calvin Johnson; hard to argue with a team that's 6-2, and nobody has anything to say about taking Calvin frickin' Johnson. Cleveland would be a hell of a team with Adrian peterson, but they took Joe Thomas with the third pick and he's been a terrific asset for that team, so much so that if Peterson weren't carving up the NFL, Thomas would likely be right up there for rookie of the year. Again, hard to argue with a 5-3 team. Washington took Laron Landry, and he's been a beast. Also, the Skins have Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. Are they as good, combined, as Adrian Peterson? Ummm. . .no. But there isn't room for three in their backfield, Washington's defense has improved dramatically since they took Landry, and they're 5-3. That leaves Oakland and Tampa Bay. You could argue that JaMarcus Russell hasn't paid off for the Raiders, but did anybody think Peterson was worthy of a number one overall pick? Over Calvin Johnson and Russell? And you can hardly fault a team that had Lamont Jordan and had just signed Dominic Rhodes from the Super Bowl champions for not drafting a tailback with injury concerns. That said, they'd be a whole hell of a lot better with Peterson. We'll wait and see how Russell works out for them, but there's no argument to be made that any team would have used the number one overall pick on Adrian Peterson over Russell or Johnson. As for Tampa Bay, the injury to Cadillac Williams makes this interesting, but the Bucs had the rookie of the year in 2005 at tailback. The Gaines Adams pick hasn't really worked out, but drafting Peterson would have essentially cancelled out the high pick the team spent on Williams, who may yet be the guy for them. The Bucs would be a lot better if they had Peterson, but they'd also be a lot better if they had a healthy Williams. My point here is this: it's easy to go back and point fingers at teams for passing on a brilliant player, but the five teams that passed on Peterson had legitimate reasons for doing so, and four of those five teams are now in playoff contention, so the argument can and should be made that those teams made the right choice.
Ok, just one more note: There are currently two teams in the NFL with records better than .500 that have allowed more points than they've scored: the Browns and the Redskins. In fact, in the NFC East the Redskins are the only team with the distinction of having scored fewer points than their opponents. I don't want to say they're pretenders, but they really need to find a way to get their offense going immediately. Of course, a 52-7 bloodbath in New England doesn't help that stat: take out that game, and the Skins have a 145-108 advantage. Still, I don't like the looks of that one bit . . .
Go Skynards.
Atlanta @ Carolina
This is an ugly matchup and I wouldn't want to watch it even if I lived in one of those towns. Atlanta is coming off an ugly road win over the terrible 49ers, and Carolina is coming off a hideous home loss to the sputtering Titans. Both teams couldn't find their ass if you punched 'em in it, and this one has all the makings of one of the more awful, ugly games all season. Atlanta just refuses to give up on Warrick Dunn, even when all signs point to Jerrius Norwood being the superior runner. The question in Carolina is whether they'll be able to get the ball to Steve Smith and will David Carr avoid giving the game away. Neither team has shit for offense, neither team is especially scary on defense. I'm giving the nod to Carolina because they're at home and they have the superior head coach.
Panthers over Falcons, 19-16
Minnesota @ Green Bay
Adrian Peterson managed 112 yards on 12 carries against the Packers defense last go 'round, and now that he's the feature back, he figures to get at least twice as many carries. There's a very realistic chance that Brad Childress will crap the bed again and the Vikings will end up throwing the ball 35 times, but if he doesn't and they don't, this could be a very interesting game. The Vikings have a pretty bad secondary and haven't had much success defending the pass, and Green Bay has been one of the more explosive passing attacks in the league. Because Green Bay's offense plays to Minny's defensive weakness and because it's in Green Bay after two Packer road wins, I'm taking McCarthy and Favre.
Packers over Vikings, 27-17
Denver @ Kansas City
I have a hard time picking either of these teams. I can't stand the Chiefs, and without Larry Johnson they have almost nothing going for them. The Broncos have been terrible, they just got steam-rolled by the Lions, and now they go to Arrowhead Stadium. They also might be without Jay Cutler and Travis Henry. I keep coming back to the whole Larry Johnson thing, I just can't imagine the Chiefs mustering anything like a competent offense without their star back. I know they're at home, but I'd expect Herm Edwards to need 2 years and a four leaf clover to overcome the loss of his workhorse. Denver stinks: so do the Chiefs. Homefield ought to mean something, but it hasn't so far. Fuck it. Only a dipshit would call this an upset.
Broncos over Chiefs, 13-6
Buffalo @ Miami
I just can't see the Dolphins moving the ball in this game. Buffalo's defense has been tough for the last 4-5 weeks, and the Dolphins don't have their top back, quarterback, or receiver for this game. They already have no defense, and the Bills look like they might have found a little rhythm with the ball. Also, Buffalo is about as tough-minded a team as there is and they've got a chance to move a game above .500 with a win here. Why let the Phins up off the mat?
Bills over Dolphins, 31-20
St. Louis @ New Orleans
This could be a trap game for the Saints. After two impressive wins in a row, they get the horrid, banged up and forgotten Rams. The Rams are coming off a bye week and might be as healthy as they've been all season. They've shown some signs of life on their offense, notably taking a halftime lead before dropping a game to the Browns in week 8. Look, no one is going to pick the Rams in this one, but it just might be a Bill Simmons "Obvious Game". Here's hoping the Saints don't crap the bed.
Saints over Rams, 35-24
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
If the Steelers are capable of playing like they did on Sunday week in and week out, they might not lose again this season. I really like the Browns, and a win on the road in Pittsburgh to split the series would be a monumental achievement for them, but I just don't see it happening. The Steelers have outscored opponents at home by nearly 100 points this season, and have outscored division foes by nearly 70 points. This is a division home game for them, and that could be a bad sign for the Browns. On the other hand, the Browns have some explosive offensive weapons and a lot of momentum, and I think Romeo Crennell is a hell of a coach. I'm hoping for a close, well-fought match, and I expect the Steelers to pull it out.
Steelers over Browns, 38-31
Jacksonville @ Tennessee
This looks to me like one of the harder games to call this week. Tennessee has the better record and the home-field advantage, but their offense has been putrid crap for a few games in a row now. Jacksonville has been stuck with Quinn Gray at quarterback and just played perhaps their worst defensive game of the year in their loss to New Orleans. Week 9 aside, both teams have strong, sturdy defenses that will stuff the run, which should make this game come down to passing plays and turnovers. Normally I'd expect the Jaguars to come out ahead in that kind of matchup, but Quinn Gray has yet to have one of those "Oh God NOOOO!!" starts, and this is the best defense he's faced so far. Jeff Fisher is the better coach, the game is in Tennessee, I'm taking the team with the better record.
Titans over Jaguars, 14-10
Philadelphia @ Washington
I won't be shocked at all if Philly wins this game. Looking at their records, you'd expect a Washington win. The Skins took them down in Philly earlier in the year, and the Eagles don't seem to have much life right now. Then again, I can't remember the last time the Eagles didn't play the Redskins tough, and the Skins offense looks pretty friggin' dreadful headed into this one. This is such an important home game for the Redskins, if they want to stay in the hunt for the division and not slip in the Wild Card race, they can't afford to let Philly off the mat. The tough thing about picking against the Eagles is that I'm never sure how many scores it will take to get the win. The Eagles are capable of dropping 56 on the Lions, they're also capable of putting 13 on the board against the Packers. Here it is: if the Skins win the turnover battle and score 21 offensive points, they should win the game.
Redskins over Eagles, 28-17 There's a defensive touchdown in there for good measure.
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
This one comes down to Chad Johnson playing. If he plays, Cincinnati wins. Period. With Rudi Johnson healthy and productive, Kenny Watson playing well, Chris Henry back from suspension, T. J. Houshmanzadeh lighting it up, and a healthy Chad Johnson, the Bengals ought to be able to score 17 points, and that should be all it takes to beat the Ravens, who can't score for shit and are collapsing. I do not believe in the Ravens as a contending team at all. I know the Bengals are bad, but I'd take their roster over the Ravens any day of the week. Call it the upset special if you must.
Bengals over Ravens, 28-13
Detroit @ Arizona
I just have a hunch on this one. The Cardinals really need a win, and the Lions aren't a very good road team. The Lions are rolling: if they win, I'll be thrilled. But the NFC West is still in play, its still very much there for the taking, and Arizona still has a lot of offensive weapons. The Cardinals are at home, and I just have a hunch. Fuck it, I'm going with my hunch.
Cardinals over Lions, 23-20
Dallas @ New York Giants
Two things really work for the Giants in this one: home field advantage and the bye week. They've had two weeks to prepare for this Cowboys team, they're at home, and they've already faced them this season. Honestly, the Cowboys have the third most impressive resume in the NFL: they've only lost to the Pats and they have a quality win over the now 6-2 Giants. I still see both teams as fragile, but this is a different Giants team than the one the Cowboys took down on opening week. This should be a very exciting, hotly contested match-up, featuring aggressive defenses and big-play offenses. I think the quarterback that plays better will win the game. I'm taking the home team in a mild upset.
Giants over Cowboys, 27-20
Chicago @ Oakland
I don't know, I just don't care about this game. I'm hoping Lane Kiffin goes to JaMarcus Russell at some point in the contest, otherwise there'll be no reason to watch. Oakland has gotten no home boost this season, and their games are getting blacked out in their market. Chicago's had a bye, I'm takin' 'em.
Bears over Raiders, 20-13
Indianapolis @ San Diego
When the NFL took a look at this matchup in the juicy week 10 Sunday night slot, they envisioned a matchup of two of the AFC's powerhouses duking it out for homefield advantage. That would've been dramatic. Instead, you've got an Indianapolis team that has been quietly killing everyone this season travelling to burned-down San Diego to take on a Chargers team that is just hoping to make the playoffs in the worst division in the NFL. Strangely, this might be even more dramatic. The Chargers desperately need this game. I can't possibly pick Norv Turner over Tony Dungy. I can't possibly pick Philip Rivers over Payton Manning. There's no effing way I'm picking the Chargers in this game. Would I be shocked if they pulled it off? Not really. LT is still probably the best player on the field. But the Colts just narrowly lost to the terrifying Patriots, and they're still 100 times better than San Diego.
Colts over Chargers, 34-21
San Francisco @ Seattle
Here it is, the Monday nighter nobody wants to see. Happy, West Coast? You get your shit-ass teams on the big stage! Seattle ought to win this game; if they don't, the NFL should just contract the whole NFC West. The Seahawks came off their bye and took a loss to the Browns, while the Niners dropped a home game to the god-awful Falcons. Who the fuck cares about this game? This is a nice little condescending pat on the back to the Pacific Northwest, whose teams suck in all major sports. Live it up! If Frank Gore plays, this could be interesting. He probably won't, so it probably won't be.
Seahawks over 49ers, 41-10
Next week we've got Tennessee at Denver in another terrible Monday nighter, followed by Miami at Pittsburgh (that should be a bloodbath), followed by New England at Baltimore (HA!), followed by New Orleans at Atlanta (is there a trend here?), then Chicago at Minnesota, then Denver at San Diego in week 16 to finish the MNF season. In short, there isn't even one Monday night game left on the season featuring two playoff teams. Didn't I hear something about flexible scheduling at some point? What the hell?
One more thing: Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Washington are the teams that passed on Adrian Peterson in the NFL draft. Detroit got Calvin Johnson; hard to argue with a team that's 6-2, and nobody has anything to say about taking Calvin frickin' Johnson. Cleveland would be a hell of a team with Adrian peterson, but they took Joe Thomas with the third pick and he's been a terrific asset for that team, so much so that if Peterson weren't carving up the NFL, Thomas would likely be right up there for rookie of the year. Again, hard to argue with a 5-3 team. Washington took Laron Landry, and he's been a beast. Also, the Skins have Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. Are they as good, combined, as Adrian Peterson? Ummm. . .no. But there isn't room for three in their backfield, Washington's defense has improved dramatically since they took Landry, and they're 5-3. That leaves Oakland and Tampa Bay. You could argue that JaMarcus Russell hasn't paid off for the Raiders, but did anybody think Peterson was worthy of a number one overall pick? Over Calvin Johnson and Russell? And you can hardly fault a team that had Lamont Jordan and had just signed Dominic Rhodes from the Super Bowl champions for not drafting a tailback with injury concerns. That said, they'd be a whole hell of a lot better with Peterson. We'll wait and see how Russell works out for them, but there's no argument to be made that any team would have used the number one overall pick on Adrian Peterson over Russell or Johnson. As for Tampa Bay, the injury to Cadillac Williams makes this interesting, but the Bucs had the rookie of the year in 2005 at tailback. The Gaines Adams pick hasn't really worked out, but drafting Peterson would have essentially cancelled out the high pick the team spent on Williams, who may yet be the guy for them. The Bucs would be a lot better if they had Peterson, but they'd also be a lot better if they had a healthy Williams. My point here is this: it's easy to go back and point fingers at teams for passing on a brilliant player, but the five teams that passed on Peterson had legitimate reasons for doing so, and four of those five teams are now in playoff contention, so the argument can and should be made that those teams made the right choice.
Ok, just one more note: There are currently two teams in the NFL with records better than .500 that have allowed more points than they've scored: the Browns and the Redskins. In fact, in the NFC East the Redskins are the only team with the distinction of having scored fewer points than their opponents. I don't want to say they're pretenders, but they really need to find a way to get their offense going immediately. Of course, a 52-7 bloodbath in New England doesn't help that stat: take out that game, and the Skins have a 145-108 advantage. Still, I don't like the looks of that one bit . . .
Go Skynards.
Monday, November 5, 2007
Great Weekend. No, Really. (Now With More Monday!)
Hey, you know what? I really enjoyed this Sunday. I was happy with most of the results, my fantasy team had a monster showing, my picks were solid, and the Skynards came back and won. Most importantly, the NFL is taking shape for the second half, with the exception of the two dreadful western divisions. Think about this: all three NFC West teams that played lost on the road, and all three AFC west teams that played lost, two at home. Honestly, it might be time to look at removing the automatic playoff berths for division champs. In the NFC, it's looking increasingly like a 10 win team will not make the playoffs so a .500 or worse NFC West team can get it, and the same might be true of the AFC South for the AFC West.
Anyway, THE RESULTS!
Tennessee over Carolina, 20-7
My Pick: Tennessee over Carolina, 20-13
Yuk. Another ugly, ugly offensive performance from Vince Young, who DARED to mention the Super Bowl after the game. Seriously, he should be fined for that. Tennessee can start to get a little excited about the play of Lendale White, who has looked solid for several weeks in a row. Doughy and round, but solid. What can John Fox do in Carolina? David Carr is just SO bad, and they don't have the players around the quarterback to make up for it. When I look at their roster, I realize I hate their offense. Individually, I like Steve Smith and some of their other receivers, I like DeAngelo Williams and DeShaun Foster, but as a group they make no sense. It's like an offense built around quirky, limited role players, like a poorly built create-a-team in Madden, the ones you tire of after 3 quarters of struggling.
Tampa Bay over Arizona, 17-10
My Pick: Tampa Bay over Arizona, 24-21
I don't think its possible for an NFL offense to do less than Arizona did in this game. They barely hit double digits in rushing yards, Kurt Warner had 10 completions on 30 percent passing, and they had absolutely no rhythm whatsoever. Tampa Bay has become the Bruce-Willis-as-Butch-in-Pulp-Fiction of the NFL. I don't feel like explaining that, it just makes sense to me. In ugly circumstances, when they're supposed to get flattened, they sneak up and kill somebody. Not that Arizona was supposed to kill them, but if you're looking at the two offenses and thinking, "which team is more likely to struggle to achieve triple digits in offensive yards in this game", no way you're taking Arizona. The Cards might be in trouble. I still think they have the playmakers to be dangerous in their division, but they just can't seem to put it together and they haven't been consistent on offense all year.
Washington over New York Jets, 23-20
My Pick: Washington over New York Jets, 20-10
Hey, both teams that won the toss in overtime lost this weekend. That's pretty rare. Kellen Clemens played pretty well, that's got to be encouraging for the Jets, who are playing him for the right reasons. That's not to say that Chad Pennington has been bad enough to lose his job, but when you're 1-7 in the AFC and staring down a pretty tough second half schedule, there's pretty much no point in sticking with the older guy who is pretty clearly not the type of player who can elevate your team to "special" status. As far as the Skins go, Joe Gibbs and Al Saunders redeemed themselves a little bit by pounding the hell out of the ball and wearing down the suspect Jets defense. The Skins defense was good enough to win again, racking up 3 sacks, a fumble recovery, and limiting the Jets offense to 13 points. This is who the Redskins are: the little engine that could, and maybe we Warshingtin fans ought to come to grips with that. They can't score a lot of points, and they almost never look pretty, but they'll keep chugging along and sticking their nose in the Wild Card race. I'm ok with that.
New Orleans over Jacksonville, 41-24
My Pick: New Orleans over Jacksonville, 23-14
Wow, what a game from the Saints offense. Drew Brees has really turned his season around, he's starting to look like a Pro Bowl player again. The Jaguars have a hell of a defense to throw for 445 yards against, but if there's a dependable characteristic of the Jaguars on both sides of the ball in the Del Rio era, it's inconsistency. Quinn Gray showed that he's capable of playing solid quarterback and also capable of killing his offense with bad decisions. Boy do the Jags need David Garrard back, they just don't seem to be able to overcome turnovers, and Garrard was excellent at protecting the ball. New Orleans has another winnable game coming up, and they look like they have the momentum and rhythm to take their banged up division.
Minnesota over San Diego, 35-17
My Pick: San Diego over Minnesota, 27-13
Two things: first, Philip Rivers is a chump. He might end up being a hell of a quarterback, but I think its pretty clear now that everyone jumped the gun on naming him the shit from on high for the Chargers. He's been nothing but crap this season. Second, what the hell do you do when a goddamn human rhino goes thundering through your defense for 296 yards? Adrian Peterson is nothing like any other running back in the NFL. He's monstrous, explosive, competitive, smart, and has a hell of a motor. He's not done. I fully expect that Adrian Peterson will top this rushing total in a game either this season or next. He's an absolute freak of nature, one of the most impressive rookies . . .no, PLAYERS in NFL history. The only thing San Diego does well defensively is stop the run, and the only thing Minnesota does will is run the ball. That ought to mean the Chargers stuff eight or nine men in the box and force Tarvaris Jackson or Brooks Bollinger to throw the ball. Let's just say that's not what happened, not at all. San Diego loaded the box and AP went fucking NUTS on them. I hope the Skins don't play the Vikings for the next 15 years.
Atlanta over San Francisco, 20-16
My Pick: San Francisco over Atlanta, 21-16
Man was I close on the final score. My rationale for picking the Niners was based on the expectation that Frank Gore would play. He did not. Without Frank Gore, the Niners are the worst offense in football. They might be the worst offense in football even WITH Frank Gore. This game doesn't deserve any other discussion.
Green Bay over Kansas City, 33-22
My Pick: Green Bay over Kansas City, 24-12
I really like the Packers. Favre seems to have a lot of trust in his receivers, and they don't seem to let him down very often. Both of his big throws over the middle were things of beauty: the laser over Donal Driver's outside shoulder that Driver hauled in one-handed in traffic, and the loft to Greg Jennings off his back-foot that went for a score. I could watch both of those plays over and over again. I was also glad to see the Chiefs go down. I just can't stomach the Chiefs hanging around the playoff discussion. In the AFC West, they might secure a division title by winning only one more out-of-division contest all year.
Detroit over Denver, 44-7
My Pick: Detroit over Denver, 24-20
Holy crap, this game wasn't even as close as the final score, and that's REALLY saying something. Detroit absolutely CRUSHED the Broncos, mowing down their defense and totally destroying their offense. If you're a Detroit fan, you've got to be on cloud nine today. The Lions are looking like a very serious playoff team right now, making huge plays on both sides of the ball and not even needing big numbers from Jon Kitna to blow out their opposition. I just wish this all could have happened a year after Matt Millen left town. At any rate, I have to say I really like this Lions team, I'll be rooting for them the rest of the way.
Buffalo over Cincinnati, 33-21
My Pick: Buffalo over Cincinnati, 17-14
Go Bills! Huge game from J. P. Losman, huge game from Lee Evans, huge game from Marshawn Lynch, huge game from the Bills defense. This is what Buffalo fans were excited about in the pre-season, a dynamic young team with playmakers at the key positions on offense. Because I'm a Losman fan, because I question the Bills' motives, because I hate quarterback controversies, and because I know a thing or two about evaluating a quarterback's performance, I insist that Losman did enough to earn his job back with this performance, a job he never should have lost in the first place. Also, Lynch came through in a big way for my fantasy team. If Buffalo stays with Losman and is able to keep enough players upright, they could very well earn a Wild Card berth. Think about it: in the AFC North, the Browns are the second best team; are you going to bet on them? The Ravens are sliding, Jacksonville has a major question mark at QB and a tough schedule the rest of the way, and as much as I like the Titans, Vince Young is playing awful football and they have no receiving corps. The Bills have games left against the Dolphins, that's all I have to say about that.
Cleveland over Seattle, 33-30
My Pick: Cleveland over Seattle, 31-27
Yup, I nailed this one. Go Browns! They slowed down a Seahawks offense that was hot early and came back in the second half, earning their first win streak in two seasons. Derek Anderson is still rolling, when will Crennell force Quinn in there? Hopefully never. I like Brady Quinn, I thought he took a lot of unfair crap in the preseason with dignity, but Anderson is looking more and more like a real-deal NFL quarterback. Sometimes the difference between a Pro Bowl quarterback and a second string guy is just protection and chemistry with a couple of elite targets, and Anderson has been the beneficiary of both. While the Browns are still fighting, winning, and producing on offense, you've got to stick with this kid. As for the Seahawks, well, if Alexander can't get it going against a porous Browns defense, maybe he really is a washed up old fart. In fact, there's no "maybe" about it.
New England over Indianapolis, 24-20
My Pick: New England over Indianapolis, 37-31
I had fun watching this game, and though I was very openly rooting for the Colts, I wasn't very upset at all by the result. I felt both teams played well enough to win, made key plays down the stretch, and the Pats took a hard-fought victory. Most importantly, there was joy in their win, there was no ugliness, no cruelty. They took a knee and ran down the clock to finish the game, a respectful and dignified way to finish off their worthiest foe all season. Maybe all the nasty up-running of the score from earlier in the year really was just a way to stay in rhythm for this all-important game, and if that's true, I can live with it. Both teams made great plays, and I'd love to see a rematch with a healthier Indy team.
Houston over Oakland, 24-17
My Pick: Houston over Oakland, 23-20
And there you have it. Oakland ought to go to JaMarcus Russell from now on. Culpepper had moments, Josh McCown had moments, but Oakland drafted their future in Russell, and that's all they have left to play for. Neither of these teams is doing jack this season, but I feel a little warmth for both.
Dallas over Philadelphia, 38-17
My Pick: Philadelphia over Dallas, 34-27
Yipe. Good win for Dallas. I guess its fork time for the Eagles, but I'm still not sure I'll be able to pick against them. If the Redskins sweep the series when they host them next week, I'll be ready to let the Eagles die. They just don't have much mustard, do they? Big matchup in Week 10 between the Cowboys and the Giants, that one ought to have some fireworks. This is the NFC version of "The Perfect Game", featuring the two bad-asses of the conference in a game that might determine playoff homefield advantage and will almost certainly determine the division winner. The Cowboys looked good in this one, whereas the Eagles looked like old, tired, confused, predictable junk. Yep, it's rebuilding time in Philly.
Pittsburgh over Baltimore, 38-7
My Pick: Pittsburgh over Baltimore, 17-9
Wow! To make things perfectly clear, I don't generally enjoy blowouts, unless the Skins are doing the out-blowing and the Cowboys or Giants are on the short end. So far this season, the thing I've been craving most is for the good teams to step up and emerge from the pack and for some sort of order to be established. Obviously the Colts and Patriots started that off in week 1, and the Cowboys and Packers weren't too far behind, but I look around the NFL and see a majority of teams and divisions where it is far too difficult to distinguish between the bottom feeders and the playoff teams, and I hate that. The NFC South and West and the AFC North and West have been two such divisions. While the two West divisions are still a mess and the NFC South hasn't really ironed itself out, I'm thrilled that there seems to be a legitimate totem pole in the AFC North after week 9. The Steelers are clearly, CLEARLY the best team in the division and one of the 4 or 5 best teams in the NFL, with the Browns clearly in second, and the Ravens and Bengals feeding on the scraps. The Steelers couldn't possibly have crushed the Ravens any worse last night, that was a brutal man-raping if ever there was one. I love the guy, but Steve McNair is pretty clearly cooked as a starting quarterback, and last night's showing made that point pretty obvious. The Ravens have no offense whatsoever, whether McNair is in there or not, but like I said with the Jets, when you've got nothing going for you, you might as well go with the younger guy. Folks in Baltimore have got to be getting pretty sick and tired of seeing season after season pass with the same anemic offense, and the one constant has been Brian Billick. To be fair, in that time the Ravens haven't had really any luck at all in drafting offensive playmakers, but sooner or later the responsibility has to fall on Billick for failing to assemble a unit that is even competent. Last night they had no business on the field at all, except to serve as a UPS of sorts for the Steelers defense to deliver the ball back to their offense. This was a brutal, hard-hitting, one-sided thumping, with the Ravens pretty much folding within 20 minutes. The Steelers now have a chance to further strengthen their hold on the North with a game against the Browns on Sunday. If they lose, they fall into a tie at the top, but if they win, they've got a nice lead with a manageable schedule the rest of the way, not including their impending loss to the Patriots.
I think we'll pull out the coaches one more time, but I think I'll probably shelve it after this weekend. The pecking order for coaches in the NFL is getting clearer.
NFC East
You've got to hand it to Wade Phillips, his Cowboys team really laid a trouncing on the hapless Eagles on Sunday. In Philadelphia, in a game that many picked to be an upset, the Cowboys dominated from the opening kick, on both sides of the ball, and it was never close. Wade seems to really enjoy himself on the sidelines, which is a big change from most other coaches in the NFL, who probably practice the look of constipation in the off-season. I especially like that the Cowboys figured out a way to get the ball to Terrell Owens early and often, and he finished with a huge night (10 catches, 174 yards, TD). Grade: A
Tom Coughlin stays in second. Huge matchup coming in Week 10 between his Giants and the aforementioned Cowboys. I'm really excited about this game, and I'm very interested to see how Coughlin gets his guys prepared in the bye week. Grade: N/A
By default, Joe Gibbs moves back into third a week after his disgusting bed-crapping in New England. I love that the Skins pounded the Jets defense mercilessly behind the run, rushing 46 times for almost 300 yards. I gave the Skins crap a few weeks ago for insisting on slowing down their offense, but in this case, I loved every minute of the ground heavy attack. The Jets are not going to put a lot of points on the board, so protect the ball, wear out the defense, march down the field, and outmuscle your opponent, on the road. That they needed to go to overtime to take the win against the awful Jets tells me they need to work on their red-zone offense quite a bit, but they got the win. Grade: B+
Andy Reid is just about done in Philadelphia. He's become a distraction, his team isn't playing anything like competitive, inspired football, and the folks in Philly are notoriously impatient with their sports teams. His Eagles team got absolutely flattened on Sunday in a home game they pretty seriously needed. Oh well. I like Reid, I hope he lands on his feet. Grade: D-
NFC North
And the Packers just keep on rolling behind the brilliant play of Brett Favre and the great coaching of Mike McCarthy. I really think this division is stacked with solid coaching, but you've got to give the nod to the guy at the helm of the 1-loss team. The Packers just took consecutive road games against the AFC West in two of the most hostile environments in football. In both cases they used big-plays on offense and stout defense to overpower teams that are clearly beneath them in the league's current power rankings. The Packers now have a series of winnable home games and could very well have secured a playoff spot by the time they go to Detroit in Week 12. That game may very well determine the division winner. Grade: A
Rod Marinelli is doing one hell of a brilliant job in Detroit. Honestly, the Lions might be one of the 7 or 8 best teams in football. No, really. Everyone knows about the passing game, but since they went to their bye week, coming off of a brutal killing at the hands of Washington, they've been pounding the ball on the ground and playing pretty great defense. That has the look of Marinelli taking greater control of his offense and playing to his strengths. The Lions continue to dominate the turnover battle week after week and have done a great job of protecting Kitna. Think about it: if the Lions can add a dependable, consistently solid running game and a tough, opportunistic defense, one capable of the kind of dominance they showed on Sunday, to one of the NFL's scariest passing attacks, that combination puts them in league with only the Colts, the Steelers, perhaps the Cowboys and MAYBE the Giants. Yes the Patriots are the best team in football, but they don't scare anybody with their running game. At any rate, Marinelli has his Lions team cruising right now, playing brilliant football. Grade: A+
For the first time all season, I'm putting Brad Childress ahead of another coach in this division. Against one of the tougher run defenses in the NFL, a Chargers team that seemed to be rolling, his rookie sensation put up an NFL record 296 yards rushing and the Vikings actually won a game that Brooks Bollinger played in. I think he's got to keep Chester Taylor active in the ground attack in order to save AP's legs for those big runs, but he's made the commitment to Peterson and it paid huge dividends on Sunday. Grade: B+
Lovie Smith is still one of the better coaches in the NFL, but his team was off and all three of his division-mates won games on Sunday and looked good doing it. Grade: N/A
NFC South
Jon Gruden gets to stay at the top. I'm going to have a hard time replacing him here. His Tampa team played a pretty ugly offensive game on Sunday, but they absolutely DOMINATED the Cardinals "explosive" offense, holding them to less than 20 yards rushing and only 30% passing. Those numbers almost need a double-take. I still say the Bucs are getting better performance from fewer pieces than just about any team in the NFL, and that comes back to Gruden, whose team keeps stubbornly hanging around the playoff picture. Grade: B+
Sean Payton has done a pretty fucking great job of turning his team around after an awful 0-4 start. The Saints are one of the NFL's hottest teams and have a great opportunity to get back above .500 with a home contest against the woeful Rams on Sunday. The Jaguars were one of only a couple of really tough opponents left on their schedule this season, and though they had to go with Quinn Gray at quarterback, that does not explain the trouncing the Saints offense laid on the Jags defense. Payton has his offense humming, and you can't say enough about how hard that had to be after dropping four straight and losing Deuce McAlister for the season. The Saints are in good position to take their division and get back to the playoffs. Grade: A
The Panthers dropped one of the uglier contests you'll see this season to the Titans on Sunday, and now John Fox has to be looking around wondering how he's going to right the ship. His team is still technically in the fight, but they got absolutely nothing from David Carr on Sunday, and yet again they were completely unable to get the ball to Steve Smith. That shouldn't really be too big a problem because teams are scheming so dramatically to erase his production that there ought to be other guys open and able to make plays, but Carolina's quarterbacks haven't been able to make anything happen at all, the running game is stalling, and in the case of the Titans on Sunday, their opponents barely need to field an offense to dispose of the struggling Panthers. Grade: C-
Though the Falcons won on Sunday, it did very little to convince me that Bobby Petrino has what it takes to be an NFL coach. Atlanta took a very winnable home game against one of the worst teams in the league, and the Niners didn't even have their one competent offensive player on hand. The Falcons offense was pretty terrible again, and this was basically a battle to see which team could give the game away. Grade: C
NFC West
The NFL's western teams took it on the chin on Sunday, going a combined 0-7 and doing nothing to establish any sort of order within their divisions. It's hard to find any silver lining in the NFC West, but I guess I'll give the nod to Mike Holmgren for almost taking down a solid Browns team on the road. His Seahawks came out fast and built an early lead before eventually succumbing to Cleveland's more balanced, explosive offense. The running game is gone in Seattle, with Shawn Alexander pretty much out of gas for the rest of his life. The NFL network described it as the Seahawks playing with 10 men on offense, and that's what it seemed like. Watching Alexander run, it's hard to imagine how he was ever so successful in the NFL. At any rate, Holmgren needs to solve that problem immediately if they want any chance of making any noise in the post-season. Grade: C
Ken Wisenhunt gets to be in second place, but I have a hard time imagining how his Cardinals could have been shut out any worse than they were by the Bucs. For a team with so many offensive weapons to have such a laughably terrible outing is really worrisome. The defense was strong and aggressive, as it has been all season, but if their offense can't put up consistently respectable outings, this team has no chance of making it to the playoffs. In the NFC West anything can happen, and if Wisenhunt is able to get consistent play from his team, they could still take the division. Grade: C
Mike Nolan's 49ers lost their sixth straight game on Sunday, and it looks like the wheels have come off. They've had no passing game all year, pretty terrible offensive line play, bad play-calling, inconsistent defense, and some locker room drama to really top things off. I've been supporting Nolan ever since he took over in San Francisco, but for a team with preseason playoff hopes to be sitting at 2-6 after a loss to the lowly Falcons is a major disappointment. Looking back at their schedule, they've played a pretty tough bunch, with wins over two teams with losing records and then five straight losses against teams with records of .500 or better. This is supposed to be the easy part of their schedule, but this was not supposed to be how they got it started. Grade: D
Scott Linehan has had a bye week to get his team ready for their road contest against the surging Saints. If his team is to have any hope of avoiding the dreaded winless season, they need a healthy Stephen Jackson, a healthy Marc Bulger, even a mediocre performance from their offensive line, and maybe for one or two guys on their defense to have that special combination of giving a crap and knowing how to tackle. They haven't gotten that for more than one half of a game all season, so the outlook is bleak. Grade: N/A
AFC East
Good win for Bill Belichick and the Patriots on the road in Indy. The Pats did the honorable thing and took a knee in the fourth quarter. Now they've got a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. Grade: A
Dick Jauron is the man! I frickin' KNEW the Bills were gonna take that game. He got a hell of a day from Marshawn Lynch and a great outing from J. P. Losman, who finally was able to coax the kind of performance from Lee Evans that we've all been waiting for. Now Jauron just needs to stick with Losman, and his team could actually contend for a wild-card spot! How totally bizarre would that be? Seriously, this guy is a hell of a coach. Grade: A
Eric Mangini's Jets tried their little balls off against the Skins, and almost took their second victory. Kellen Clemens played pretty well, the defense was ok enough against the pass, and the team only turned the ball over once. Mangini still failed to utilize the running game, making the off-season signing of Thomas Jones look more and more silly every week, and in the end, his team couldn't do the job. Grade: C
The Dolphins were off on Sunday, and thank God. I think NFL fans are getting pretty sick of the crap they call football down in Miami. Coming off their bye week, Cam Cameron's bunch get to host a Bills team that seems to be clicking. Here's hoping Buffalo trounces their sorry asses. Grade: N/A
AFC North
I've gotta hand it to Mike Tomlin, the man knows how to handle a home game. Holy hell. His Steelers have outscored their opponents 119-26 in their four home games, and have outscored their division opponents 96-27. There was no part of the Monday night game against the Ravens that the Steelers didn't dominate. Now they get a chance to open up the North a little bit when the host they Browns on Sunday. I can't wait! Grade: A+
If you don't love this Browns team, you're a heartless son of a bitch. Romeo Crennell has to be in the driver's seat for Coach of the Year. After falling behind early to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, his Browns battled back behind a big game from Jamal Lewis and another steady outing from Derek Anderson, and took the game in overtime. How about the maturation of Kellen Winslow Jr.? Not only is he a monster on the field, he's become a genuine leader on this team. If Crennell hasn't done enough to earn an extension yet, he very well might if his team can pull off the road upset on Sunday and put themselves in a tie with the Steelers at the top of the division. Grade: B+
For the second week in a row, I'm putting two coaches in a tie at the bottom of a division in the AFC. Marvin Lewis and Brian Billick both took a beating on Sunday. The Ravens got the more embarrassing pounding, but they also played the stronger foe. Both guys are very likely to lose their jobs at the end of the season, and in the case of Lewis, it could be sooner. Both guys are likely to end up as coordinators in their next jobs. Grade: D-
AFC South
Though his Colts dropped a home game, Tony Dungy got a pretty great performance from his team considering the injuries they had to overcome. After about four offensive plays, the team was down to only two healthy receivers, and only brought three healthy linebackers into the game. They took a lead into the fourth, but eventually were overcome by a healthier and ultimately better Patriots team. The Colts have a tough second half schedule, but they've got the talent and professionalism to get the job done. Grade: B+
Jeff Fisher coached his Titans to a hideous win on Sunday to keep pace with the top teams in the AFC. They need better play from Vince Y0ung immediately, but the fact that Fisher has found a way to get Lendale White going has to be encouraging to Tennessee fans. The defense has been outstanding, and with a crucial home game against Jacksonville up next before a road swing, they'll need a well-rounded performance on both sides of the ball to stay in position for the Wild Card. Grade: B
Jack Del Rio's Jaguars just couldn't stop the Saints at all on Sunday. You'd like to think the outcome of this game had anything to do with Quinn Gray, but it didn't. In truth, he played well enough to win most games. The defining characteristic of Jack Del Rio's team is the unpredictable efforts and results you see week to week. The Saints are surging, the Jags have to go with a backup quarterback with very little experience, and they lost Marcus Stroud to a suspension. When Garrard gets back, this team should be right back in the hunt. Grade: C
The Texans took a much-needed win at the hands of the flailing Raiders on Sunday, and though they're probably out of the playoff hunt, Gary Kubiak's team can still have a respectable second half and finish the season with pride, and the first step on that road is taking down lowly teams like they did on Sunday. In the end, it was a good road win. Grade: B
AFC West
As I mentioned before, the AFC West couldn't get a win on Sunday. Because of that, and because every team disappointed, and because all four teams are a mess, and because I'm sick to death of grading the coaches, I'm giving all of them a tie. Norv Turner, Lane Kiffin, Herm Edwards, and Mike Shanahan are all sucking it up. Grade: D-
Picks tomorrow, week 10 is one of the best yet!
Anyway, THE RESULTS!
Tennessee over Carolina, 20-7
My Pick: Tennessee over Carolina, 20-13
Yuk. Another ugly, ugly offensive performance from Vince Young, who DARED to mention the Super Bowl after the game. Seriously, he should be fined for that. Tennessee can start to get a little excited about the play of Lendale White, who has looked solid for several weeks in a row. Doughy and round, but solid. What can John Fox do in Carolina? David Carr is just SO bad, and they don't have the players around the quarterback to make up for it. When I look at their roster, I realize I hate their offense. Individually, I like Steve Smith and some of their other receivers, I like DeAngelo Williams and DeShaun Foster, but as a group they make no sense. It's like an offense built around quirky, limited role players, like a poorly built create-a-team in Madden, the ones you tire of after 3 quarters of struggling.
Tampa Bay over Arizona, 17-10
My Pick: Tampa Bay over Arizona, 24-21
I don't think its possible for an NFL offense to do less than Arizona did in this game. They barely hit double digits in rushing yards, Kurt Warner had 10 completions on 30 percent passing, and they had absolutely no rhythm whatsoever. Tampa Bay has become the Bruce-Willis-as-Butch-in-Pulp-Fiction of the NFL. I don't feel like explaining that, it just makes sense to me. In ugly circumstances, when they're supposed to get flattened, they sneak up and kill somebody. Not that Arizona was supposed to kill them, but if you're looking at the two offenses and thinking, "which team is more likely to struggle to achieve triple digits in offensive yards in this game", no way you're taking Arizona. The Cards might be in trouble. I still think they have the playmakers to be dangerous in their division, but they just can't seem to put it together and they haven't been consistent on offense all year.
Washington over New York Jets, 23-20
My Pick: Washington over New York Jets, 20-10
Hey, both teams that won the toss in overtime lost this weekend. That's pretty rare. Kellen Clemens played pretty well, that's got to be encouraging for the Jets, who are playing him for the right reasons. That's not to say that Chad Pennington has been bad enough to lose his job, but when you're 1-7 in the AFC and staring down a pretty tough second half schedule, there's pretty much no point in sticking with the older guy who is pretty clearly not the type of player who can elevate your team to "special" status. As far as the Skins go, Joe Gibbs and Al Saunders redeemed themselves a little bit by pounding the hell out of the ball and wearing down the suspect Jets defense. The Skins defense was good enough to win again, racking up 3 sacks, a fumble recovery, and limiting the Jets offense to 13 points. This is who the Redskins are: the little engine that could, and maybe we Warshingtin fans ought to come to grips with that. They can't score a lot of points, and they almost never look pretty, but they'll keep chugging along and sticking their nose in the Wild Card race. I'm ok with that.
New Orleans over Jacksonville, 41-24
My Pick: New Orleans over Jacksonville, 23-14
Wow, what a game from the Saints offense. Drew Brees has really turned his season around, he's starting to look like a Pro Bowl player again. The Jaguars have a hell of a defense to throw for 445 yards against, but if there's a dependable characteristic of the Jaguars on both sides of the ball in the Del Rio era, it's inconsistency. Quinn Gray showed that he's capable of playing solid quarterback and also capable of killing his offense with bad decisions. Boy do the Jags need David Garrard back, they just don't seem to be able to overcome turnovers, and Garrard was excellent at protecting the ball. New Orleans has another winnable game coming up, and they look like they have the momentum and rhythm to take their banged up division.
Minnesota over San Diego, 35-17
My Pick: San Diego over Minnesota, 27-13
Two things: first, Philip Rivers is a chump. He might end up being a hell of a quarterback, but I think its pretty clear now that everyone jumped the gun on naming him the shit from on high for the Chargers. He's been nothing but crap this season. Second, what the hell do you do when a goddamn human rhino goes thundering through your defense for 296 yards? Adrian Peterson is nothing like any other running back in the NFL. He's monstrous, explosive, competitive, smart, and has a hell of a motor. He's not done. I fully expect that Adrian Peterson will top this rushing total in a game either this season or next. He's an absolute freak of nature, one of the most impressive rookies . . .no, PLAYERS in NFL history. The only thing San Diego does well defensively is stop the run, and the only thing Minnesota does will is run the ball. That ought to mean the Chargers stuff eight or nine men in the box and force Tarvaris Jackson or Brooks Bollinger to throw the ball. Let's just say that's not what happened, not at all. San Diego loaded the box and AP went fucking NUTS on them. I hope the Skins don't play the Vikings for the next 15 years.
Atlanta over San Francisco, 20-16
My Pick: San Francisco over Atlanta, 21-16
Man was I close on the final score. My rationale for picking the Niners was based on the expectation that Frank Gore would play. He did not. Without Frank Gore, the Niners are the worst offense in football. They might be the worst offense in football even WITH Frank Gore. This game doesn't deserve any other discussion.
Green Bay over Kansas City, 33-22
My Pick: Green Bay over Kansas City, 24-12
I really like the Packers. Favre seems to have a lot of trust in his receivers, and they don't seem to let him down very often. Both of his big throws over the middle were things of beauty: the laser over Donal Driver's outside shoulder that Driver hauled in one-handed in traffic, and the loft to Greg Jennings off his back-foot that went for a score. I could watch both of those plays over and over again. I was also glad to see the Chiefs go down. I just can't stomach the Chiefs hanging around the playoff discussion. In the AFC West, they might secure a division title by winning only one more out-of-division contest all year.
Detroit over Denver, 44-7
My Pick: Detroit over Denver, 24-20
Holy crap, this game wasn't even as close as the final score, and that's REALLY saying something. Detroit absolutely CRUSHED the Broncos, mowing down their defense and totally destroying their offense. If you're a Detroit fan, you've got to be on cloud nine today. The Lions are looking like a very serious playoff team right now, making huge plays on both sides of the ball and not even needing big numbers from Jon Kitna to blow out their opposition. I just wish this all could have happened a year after Matt Millen left town. At any rate, I have to say I really like this Lions team, I'll be rooting for them the rest of the way.
Buffalo over Cincinnati, 33-21
My Pick: Buffalo over Cincinnati, 17-14
Go Bills! Huge game from J. P. Losman, huge game from Lee Evans, huge game from Marshawn Lynch, huge game from the Bills defense. This is what Buffalo fans were excited about in the pre-season, a dynamic young team with playmakers at the key positions on offense. Because I'm a Losman fan, because I question the Bills' motives, because I hate quarterback controversies, and because I know a thing or two about evaluating a quarterback's performance, I insist that Losman did enough to earn his job back with this performance, a job he never should have lost in the first place. Also, Lynch came through in a big way for my fantasy team. If Buffalo stays with Losman and is able to keep enough players upright, they could very well earn a Wild Card berth. Think about it: in the AFC North, the Browns are the second best team; are you going to bet on them? The Ravens are sliding, Jacksonville has a major question mark at QB and a tough schedule the rest of the way, and as much as I like the Titans, Vince Young is playing awful football and they have no receiving corps. The Bills have games left against the Dolphins, that's all I have to say about that.
Cleveland over Seattle, 33-30
My Pick: Cleveland over Seattle, 31-27
Yup, I nailed this one. Go Browns! They slowed down a Seahawks offense that was hot early and came back in the second half, earning their first win streak in two seasons. Derek Anderson is still rolling, when will Crennell force Quinn in there? Hopefully never. I like Brady Quinn, I thought he took a lot of unfair crap in the preseason with dignity, but Anderson is looking more and more like a real-deal NFL quarterback. Sometimes the difference between a Pro Bowl quarterback and a second string guy is just protection and chemistry with a couple of elite targets, and Anderson has been the beneficiary of both. While the Browns are still fighting, winning, and producing on offense, you've got to stick with this kid. As for the Seahawks, well, if Alexander can't get it going against a porous Browns defense, maybe he really is a washed up old fart. In fact, there's no "maybe" about it.
New England over Indianapolis, 24-20
My Pick: New England over Indianapolis, 37-31
I had fun watching this game, and though I was very openly rooting for the Colts, I wasn't very upset at all by the result. I felt both teams played well enough to win, made key plays down the stretch, and the Pats took a hard-fought victory. Most importantly, there was joy in their win, there was no ugliness, no cruelty. They took a knee and ran down the clock to finish the game, a respectful and dignified way to finish off their worthiest foe all season. Maybe all the nasty up-running of the score from earlier in the year really was just a way to stay in rhythm for this all-important game, and if that's true, I can live with it. Both teams made great plays, and I'd love to see a rematch with a healthier Indy team.
Houston over Oakland, 24-17
My Pick: Houston over Oakland, 23-20
And there you have it. Oakland ought to go to JaMarcus Russell from now on. Culpepper had moments, Josh McCown had moments, but Oakland drafted their future in Russell, and that's all they have left to play for. Neither of these teams is doing jack this season, but I feel a little warmth for both.
Dallas over Philadelphia, 38-17
My Pick: Philadelphia over Dallas, 34-27
Yipe. Good win for Dallas. I guess its fork time for the Eagles, but I'm still not sure I'll be able to pick against them. If the Redskins sweep the series when they host them next week, I'll be ready to let the Eagles die. They just don't have much mustard, do they? Big matchup in Week 10 between the Cowboys and the Giants, that one ought to have some fireworks. This is the NFC version of "The Perfect Game", featuring the two bad-asses of the conference in a game that might determine playoff homefield advantage and will almost certainly determine the division winner. The Cowboys looked good in this one, whereas the Eagles looked like old, tired, confused, predictable junk. Yep, it's rebuilding time in Philly.
Pittsburgh over Baltimore, 38-7
My Pick: Pittsburgh over Baltimore, 17-9
Wow! To make things perfectly clear, I don't generally enjoy blowouts, unless the Skins are doing the out-blowing and the Cowboys or Giants are on the short end. So far this season, the thing I've been craving most is for the good teams to step up and emerge from the pack and for some sort of order to be established. Obviously the Colts and Patriots started that off in week 1, and the Cowboys and Packers weren't too far behind, but I look around the NFL and see a majority of teams and divisions where it is far too difficult to distinguish between the bottom feeders and the playoff teams, and I hate that. The NFC South and West and the AFC North and West have been two such divisions. While the two West divisions are still a mess and the NFC South hasn't really ironed itself out, I'm thrilled that there seems to be a legitimate totem pole in the AFC North after week 9. The Steelers are clearly, CLEARLY the best team in the division and one of the 4 or 5 best teams in the NFL, with the Browns clearly in second, and the Ravens and Bengals feeding on the scraps. The Steelers couldn't possibly have crushed the Ravens any worse last night, that was a brutal man-raping if ever there was one. I love the guy, but Steve McNair is pretty clearly cooked as a starting quarterback, and last night's showing made that point pretty obvious. The Ravens have no offense whatsoever, whether McNair is in there or not, but like I said with the Jets, when you've got nothing going for you, you might as well go with the younger guy. Folks in Baltimore have got to be getting pretty sick and tired of seeing season after season pass with the same anemic offense, and the one constant has been Brian Billick. To be fair, in that time the Ravens haven't had really any luck at all in drafting offensive playmakers, but sooner or later the responsibility has to fall on Billick for failing to assemble a unit that is even competent. Last night they had no business on the field at all, except to serve as a UPS of sorts for the Steelers defense to deliver the ball back to their offense. This was a brutal, hard-hitting, one-sided thumping, with the Ravens pretty much folding within 20 minutes. The Steelers now have a chance to further strengthen their hold on the North with a game against the Browns on Sunday. If they lose, they fall into a tie at the top, but if they win, they've got a nice lead with a manageable schedule the rest of the way, not including their impending loss to the Patriots.
I think we'll pull out the coaches one more time, but I think I'll probably shelve it after this weekend. The pecking order for coaches in the NFL is getting clearer.
NFC East
You've got to hand it to Wade Phillips, his Cowboys team really laid a trouncing on the hapless Eagles on Sunday. In Philadelphia, in a game that many picked to be an upset, the Cowboys dominated from the opening kick, on both sides of the ball, and it was never close. Wade seems to really enjoy himself on the sidelines, which is a big change from most other coaches in the NFL, who probably practice the look of constipation in the off-season. I especially like that the Cowboys figured out a way to get the ball to Terrell Owens early and often, and he finished with a huge night (10 catches, 174 yards, TD). Grade: A
Tom Coughlin stays in second. Huge matchup coming in Week 10 between his Giants and the aforementioned Cowboys. I'm really excited about this game, and I'm very interested to see how Coughlin gets his guys prepared in the bye week. Grade: N/A
By default, Joe Gibbs moves back into third a week after his disgusting bed-crapping in New England. I love that the Skins pounded the Jets defense mercilessly behind the run, rushing 46 times for almost 300 yards. I gave the Skins crap a few weeks ago for insisting on slowing down their offense, but in this case, I loved every minute of the ground heavy attack. The Jets are not going to put a lot of points on the board, so protect the ball, wear out the defense, march down the field, and outmuscle your opponent, on the road. That they needed to go to overtime to take the win against the awful Jets tells me they need to work on their red-zone offense quite a bit, but they got the win. Grade: B+
Andy Reid is just about done in Philadelphia. He's become a distraction, his team isn't playing anything like competitive, inspired football, and the folks in Philly are notoriously impatient with their sports teams. His Eagles team got absolutely flattened on Sunday in a home game they pretty seriously needed. Oh well. I like Reid, I hope he lands on his feet. Grade: D-
NFC North
And the Packers just keep on rolling behind the brilliant play of Brett Favre and the great coaching of Mike McCarthy. I really think this division is stacked with solid coaching, but you've got to give the nod to the guy at the helm of the 1-loss team. The Packers just took consecutive road games against the AFC West in two of the most hostile environments in football. In both cases they used big-plays on offense and stout defense to overpower teams that are clearly beneath them in the league's current power rankings. The Packers now have a series of winnable home games and could very well have secured a playoff spot by the time they go to Detroit in Week 12. That game may very well determine the division winner. Grade: A
Rod Marinelli is doing one hell of a brilliant job in Detroit. Honestly, the Lions might be one of the 7 or 8 best teams in football. No, really. Everyone knows about the passing game, but since they went to their bye week, coming off of a brutal killing at the hands of Washington, they've been pounding the ball on the ground and playing pretty great defense. That has the look of Marinelli taking greater control of his offense and playing to his strengths. The Lions continue to dominate the turnover battle week after week and have done a great job of protecting Kitna. Think about it: if the Lions can add a dependable, consistently solid running game and a tough, opportunistic defense, one capable of the kind of dominance they showed on Sunday, to one of the NFL's scariest passing attacks, that combination puts them in league with only the Colts, the Steelers, perhaps the Cowboys and MAYBE the Giants. Yes the Patriots are the best team in football, but they don't scare anybody with their running game. At any rate, Marinelli has his Lions team cruising right now, playing brilliant football. Grade: A+
For the first time all season, I'm putting Brad Childress ahead of another coach in this division. Against one of the tougher run defenses in the NFL, a Chargers team that seemed to be rolling, his rookie sensation put up an NFL record 296 yards rushing and the Vikings actually won a game that Brooks Bollinger played in. I think he's got to keep Chester Taylor active in the ground attack in order to save AP's legs for those big runs, but he's made the commitment to Peterson and it paid huge dividends on Sunday. Grade: B+
Lovie Smith is still one of the better coaches in the NFL, but his team was off and all three of his division-mates won games on Sunday and looked good doing it. Grade: N/A
NFC South
Jon Gruden gets to stay at the top. I'm going to have a hard time replacing him here. His Tampa team played a pretty ugly offensive game on Sunday, but they absolutely DOMINATED the Cardinals "explosive" offense, holding them to less than 20 yards rushing and only 30% passing. Those numbers almost need a double-take. I still say the Bucs are getting better performance from fewer pieces than just about any team in the NFL, and that comes back to Gruden, whose team keeps stubbornly hanging around the playoff picture. Grade: B+
Sean Payton has done a pretty fucking great job of turning his team around after an awful 0-4 start. The Saints are one of the NFL's hottest teams and have a great opportunity to get back above .500 with a home contest against the woeful Rams on Sunday. The Jaguars were one of only a couple of really tough opponents left on their schedule this season, and though they had to go with Quinn Gray at quarterback, that does not explain the trouncing the Saints offense laid on the Jags defense. Payton has his offense humming, and you can't say enough about how hard that had to be after dropping four straight and losing Deuce McAlister for the season. The Saints are in good position to take their division and get back to the playoffs. Grade: A
The Panthers dropped one of the uglier contests you'll see this season to the Titans on Sunday, and now John Fox has to be looking around wondering how he's going to right the ship. His team is still technically in the fight, but they got absolutely nothing from David Carr on Sunday, and yet again they were completely unable to get the ball to Steve Smith. That shouldn't really be too big a problem because teams are scheming so dramatically to erase his production that there ought to be other guys open and able to make plays, but Carolina's quarterbacks haven't been able to make anything happen at all, the running game is stalling, and in the case of the Titans on Sunday, their opponents barely need to field an offense to dispose of the struggling Panthers. Grade: C-
Though the Falcons won on Sunday, it did very little to convince me that Bobby Petrino has what it takes to be an NFL coach. Atlanta took a very winnable home game against one of the worst teams in the league, and the Niners didn't even have their one competent offensive player on hand. The Falcons offense was pretty terrible again, and this was basically a battle to see which team could give the game away. Grade: C
NFC West
The NFL's western teams took it on the chin on Sunday, going a combined 0-7 and doing nothing to establish any sort of order within their divisions. It's hard to find any silver lining in the NFC West, but I guess I'll give the nod to Mike Holmgren for almost taking down a solid Browns team on the road. His Seahawks came out fast and built an early lead before eventually succumbing to Cleveland's more balanced, explosive offense. The running game is gone in Seattle, with Shawn Alexander pretty much out of gas for the rest of his life. The NFL network described it as the Seahawks playing with 10 men on offense, and that's what it seemed like. Watching Alexander run, it's hard to imagine how he was ever so successful in the NFL. At any rate, Holmgren needs to solve that problem immediately if they want any chance of making any noise in the post-season. Grade: C
Ken Wisenhunt gets to be in second place, but I have a hard time imagining how his Cardinals could have been shut out any worse than they were by the Bucs. For a team with so many offensive weapons to have such a laughably terrible outing is really worrisome. The defense was strong and aggressive, as it has been all season, but if their offense can't put up consistently respectable outings, this team has no chance of making it to the playoffs. In the NFC West anything can happen, and if Wisenhunt is able to get consistent play from his team, they could still take the division. Grade: C
Mike Nolan's 49ers lost their sixth straight game on Sunday, and it looks like the wheels have come off. They've had no passing game all year, pretty terrible offensive line play, bad play-calling, inconsistent defense, and some locker room drama to really top things off. I've been supporting Nolan ever since he took over in San Francisco, but for a team with preseason playoff hopes to be sitting at 2-6 after a loss to the lowly Falcons is a major disappointment. Looking back at their schedule, they've played a pretty tough bunch, with wins over two teams with losing records and then five straight losses against teams with records of .500 or better. This is supposed to be the easy part of their schedule, but this was not supposed to be how they got it started. Grade: D
Scott Linehan has had a bye week to get his team ready for their road contest against the surging Saints. If his team is to have any hope of avoiding the dreaded winless season, they need a healthy Stephen Jackson, a healthy Marc Bulger, even a mediocre performance from their offensive line, and maybe for one or two guys on their defense to have that special combination of giving a crap and knowing how to tackle. They haven't gotten that for more than one half of a game all season, so the outlook is bleak. Grade: N/A
AFC East
Good win for Bill Belichick and the Patriots on the road in Indy. The Pats did the honorable thing and took a knee in the fourth quarter. Now they've got a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. Grade: A
Dick Jauron is the man! I frickin' KNEW the Bills were gonna take that game. He got a hell of a day from Marshawn Lynch and a great outing from J. P. Losman, who finally was able to coax the kind of performance from Lee Evans that we've all been waiting for. Now Jauron just needs to stick with Losman, and his team could actually contend for a wild-card spot! How totally bizarre would that be? Seriously, this guy is a hell of a coach. Grade: A
Eric Mangini's Jets tried their little balls off against the Skins, and almost took their second victory. Kellen Clemens played pretty well, the defense was ok enough against the pass, and the team only turned the ball over once. Mangini still failed to utilize the running game, making the off-season signing of Thomas Jones look more and more silly every week, and in the end, his team couldn't do the job. Grade: C
The Dolphins were off on Sunday, and thank God. I think NFL fans are getting pretty sick of the crap they call football down in Miami. Coming off their bye week, Cam Cameron's bunch get to host a Bills team that seems to be clicking. Here's hoping Buffalo trounces their sorry asses. Grade: N/A
AFC North
I've gotta hand it to Mike Tomlin, the man knows how to handle a home game. Holy hell. His Steelers have outscored their opponents 119-26 in their four home games, and have outscored their division opponents 96-27. There was no part of the Monday night game against the Ravens that the Steelers didn't dominate. Now they get a chance to open up the North a little bit when the host they Browns on Sunday. I can't wait! Grade: A+
If you don't love this Browns team, you're a heartless son of a bitch. Romeo Crennell has to be in the driver's seat for Coach of the Year. After falling behind early to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, his Browns battled back behind a big game from Jamal Lewis and another steady outing from Derek Anderson, and took the game in overtime. How about the maturation of Kellen Winslow Jr.? Not only is he a monster on the field, he's become a genuine leader on this team. If Crennell hasn't done enough to earn an extension yet, he very well might if his team can pull off the road upset on Sunday and put themselves in a tie with the Steelers at the top of the division. Grade: B+
For the second week in a row, I'm putting two coaches in a tie at the bottom of a division in the AFC. Marvin Lewis and Brian Billick both took a beating on Sunday. The Ravens got the more embarrassing pounding, but they also played the stronger foe. Both guys are very likely to lose their jobs at the end of the season, and in the case of Lewis, it could be sooner. Both guys are likely to end up as coordinators in their next jobs. Grade: D-
AFC South
Though his Colts dropped a home game, Tony Dungy got a pretty great performance from his team considering the injuries they had to overcome. After about four offensive plays, the team was down to only two healthy receivers, and only brought three healthy linebackers into the game. They took a lead into the fourth, but eventually were overcome by a healthier and ultimately better Patriots team. The Colts have a tough second half schedule, but they've got the talent and professionalism to get the job done. Grade: B+
Jeff Fisher coached his Titans to a hideous win on Sunday to keep pace with the top teams in the AFC. They need better play from Vince Y0ung immediately, but the fact that Fisher has found a way to get Lendale White going has to be encouraging to Tennessee fans. The defense has been outstanding, and with a crucial home game against Jacksonville up next before a road swing, they'll need a well-rounded performance on both sides of the ball to stay in position for the Wild Card. Grade: B
Jack Del Rio's Jaguars just couldn't stop the Saints at all on Sunday. You'd like to think the outcome of this game had anything to do with Quinn Gray, but it didn't. In truth, he played well enough to win most games. The defining characteristic of Jack Del Rio's team is the unpredictable efforts and results you see week to week. The Saints are surging, the Jags have to go with a backup quarterback with very little experience, and they lost Marcus Stroud to a suspension. When Garrard gets back, this team should be right back in the hunt. Grade: C
The Texans took a much-needed win at the hands of the flailing Raiders on Sunday, and though they're probably out of the playoff hunt, Gary Kubiak's team can still have a respectable second half and finish the season with pride, and the first step on that road is taking down lowly teams like they did on Sunday. In the end, it was a good road win. Grade: B
AFC West
As I mentioned before, the AFC West couldn't get a win on Sunday. Because of that, and because every team disappointed, and because all four teams are a mess, and because I'm sick to death of grading the coaches, I'm giving all of them a tie. Norv Turner, Lane Kiffin, Herm Edwards, and Mike Shanahan are all sucking it up. Grade: D-
Picks tomorrow, week 10 is one of the best yet!
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