Conference Championships, Super Bowl Pick, and Assorted Other Items - FREE!!

Let's quickly recap Sunday's Conference Championship games:

Patriots over Chargers 21-12
My Pick: Patriots over Chargers by much more than 9 points

Ok, you have to admit: it's pretty effing amazing how the margin is always a lot closer when I pick the Patriots in a blow-out without giving specific point totals, versus when I pick the actual score and the Pats run away. From now on, that's how I'm picking Pats games. In fact . . . here:

Patriots over Giants by many touchdowns

I keep waiting for this trend to die off, but week after week, it holds up. Even when I expect a close game, I pick this way because it seems to lock-in a fairly tight match. Amazing!

As for the actual game, I thought the Chargers did about as well as they could. Obviously, they failed in the red-zone, and you had to know they'd lose when all they got from three Tom Brady interceptions was nine points. It doesn't matter who you're facing or who you pick off, if you turn three interceptions into only nine points, there's a good chance you could lose the game. Somewhere in the back of my head, that rings a certain Norv Turner bell, as if maybe the Redskins frequently turned excellent field position and turnovers into stalled drives and disappointing results. On the other hand, I was so depressed by the Skins during the Norv Turner years that just about any bad thing that happens to any NFL team reminds me of those sad, sad days.

The Chargers failed to establish the ground game at any point in this contest. LT going down early makes a convenient excuse, but the truth is, the Chargers never made a real effort to dominate on the ground. That's a Norv Turner trademark move. I'm not trying to pile on Norv, because in general, I respect the job he did this season, especially in the playoffs. But to beat the Patriots, as with pretty much any explosive offensive team, you have to keep their defense on the field, and the best way to do that is by pounding the football. Michael Turner is a good back, capable of starting in the NFL, and was having moderate success. I think the Chargers were seduced by their first few drives, when Philip Rivers was finding Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson deep over the middle with consistency, and fell in love with the passing game. Ultimately, it led to their undoing. The Patriots capitalized on their trips into the red-zone, scoring touchdowns on three of four tries, two of those coming off interceptions. What a disappointment for the Chargers: if you're going to face the Patriots, you pray you get 'em under the exact circumstances the Chargers got 'em, with Brady badly out of sync. The longest play of the game for the Patriots was one 20 yard scamper by Lawrence Maroney. Still, I theorized that the Chargers had satisfied themselves with a wild-card round victory over the Titans, so I think they'll chalk this loss up to injuries and move on. The rest of us know, however, that they had every opportunity to win this game and failed to execute. If they'd gotten the job done in the red-zone early, they could have put the Patriots away down the stretch, especially with Tom Brady looking like he couldn't throw the ball more than 8 yards past the line of scrimmage on any play.

Giants over Packers, 23-20

Yes, Brett Favre killed the Packers in this one. But seriously, how the hell do you let your opponent come in to your stadium and control the ball for more than 40 minutes? Holy hell, when I saw that statistic, I very nearly slid out of my chair. The Giants ran 32 more offensive plays than the Packers! In Green Bay! Scoreboard aside, the Giants absolutely DOMINATED the Packers. I'm sad to say it, because I was rooting for the Packers, but man, they got killed. Also, didn't it look like Tom Coughlin's face was freezing off? I was genuinely worried about the guy! That he didn't come away with frostbite is a friggin' miracle.

As for Favre, he threw a pair of KILLER picks in this game. If R. W. McQuarters hadn't fumbled that interception back to the Packers, it's very likely this game never would have gone to overtime. That pick was a rotten, awful decision by a guy way to old and experienced to make such a bone-headed throw; the second one was just a duck. Favre threw it off his back foot, didn't seem real sure of it when he let it go, and it floated out there where only the defender had a chance on it. In his defense, he must've been freezing his ass off after sitting on the sidelines for more than 40 minutes of game-time watching the Giants pound his defense. The interception obviously killed the Packers, but more than the effect on the outcome of the game, it had to really stun the Packers players and fans. As fairy-tale endings go, wouldn't you want Favre with ball-in-hand in OT, the home crowd roaring, in the bitter, freezing cold, driving his team down the field for the game-winner to send them to the Super Bowl? Didn't God Himself knock a few Lawrence Tynes field-goals wide left to set up that exact scenario? It turns out, after all these years, Brett Favre really is who we thought he was: sometimes he kills his team with bone-headed decisions and ugly throws. But even I hate to think of the guy going out on that note; having killed his Cinderella team with a bad throw in overtime at home with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. If he hangs 'em up now, I'll be beyond shocked.

As for the Super Bowl:

Giants @ Patriots

Here are a few stories for the Super Bowl:

1. Eli Manning has been doing a pretty decent job managing games in the playoffs. I don't think "game-management" will win the big game, but at least he isn't killing the Giants.

2. The Giants seem to be the only team in the playoffs in either conference that can and will reliably run the ball. I thought it might be the Jaguars, but no. The Giants ran the ball 40 times on Sunday and dominated time of possession. If they put on a similar showing in the Super Bowl, they'll stand a chance.

3. Plaxico Burress is playing lights-out football. He's been good for a while, but he's taken a leap to another level in the last few weeks. Watching him on the field is a joy: he's absolutely incredible, a special player who can do just about everything. In addition to his great height, length, and great athletic tools, he's a hard worker, he blocks his ass off, runs great routes, and is fearless. He might be my favorite receiver in football.

4. Tom Brady was spotted limping around in a walking cast on Monday. This means nothing, nothing at all, but you can bet Joe Buck will pop Brady's balls out of his mouth just long enough during the Super Bowl to retch up a few quarts of "playing-through-injury" bile on his microphone. Brady's "injury" will be one of the big stories leading up to the big game.

5. Lawrence Maroney is playing great football. If he's on in the Super Bowl like he's been on the past few weeks, forget about it.

6. Bone-headed, noodle-armed throws will kill you against the Patriots. The Patriots are maybe the best team in the NFL at forcing early turnovers and capitalizing on them to get a lead and demoralize their opponents. I have a theory that they do most of their defensive gambling early in the game, seeking to fluster the opposing offense and unsettle the opposing quarterback, knowing they have the offensive firepower to get back in the game if their guessing leads to quick points for the opposition. I can't back it up with stats or anything, but I'll put it out there all the same. Such is the integrity of this blog.

7. Did anyone notice that Jeremy Shockey has been out since week 15? Yeah, me neither!

For the Pats to win, they can't let Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw go nuts. If the Giants dominate time of possession and aren't forced to throw the ball too much, the Patriots will have a tough time getting a rhythm going offensively. Randy Moss hasn't been a non-factor at any point in his whole career, but he was as close to a non-factor as he'll ever be in Sunday's game against the Chargers. Unlike other games when Moss hasn't shown up a lot in the stat-book, his presence didn't even lead to a lot of underneath success for the Pats passing attack, which forced Tom Brady to try to fit a few balls into tighter spaces. Tom Brady is a great quarterback, but he's never been Bazooka Joe back there: he just doesn't have the arm strength to consistently fire balls though small windows. If the Giants think Aaron Ross or, God forbid, Sam Madison can lock up with Randy Moss like Antonio Cromartie did on Sunday, they might try it. If Moss and Brady can prove them wrong early, that'll force the Giants to roll more safety help his way, and every time teams overplay to stop Randy Moss, Kevin Faulk and Wes Welker go nuts underneath. I think the Pats ought to test the Giants deep early to see what kind of commitment they've made to stopping Moss, and force the Giants to either live and die with 2-deep coverage and a man on Moss, or sell out to contain him and leave the underneath and weak side for Welker to dominate. The Pats have unearthed their running game in the past few games, and if they can get that going early, it'll be nearly impossible for the Giants to get the ball. The Pats do a lot of clock-managing with their short passing attack, and if they can add a strong ground game, they'll dominate time of possession.

Defensively, the Pats can probably afford to sell out to stop Plaxico Burress. The Pats operate under the philosophy of eliminating their opponent's greatest offensive strength. In the Giants case, that's probably the running game, but Burress is a close second. Ellis Hobbes and Asante Samuel are pretty small guys, Burress probably has six or seven inches on each of those guys. If the Pats roll additional bodies that way, that'll force Eli to look more and more for Amani Toomer, and he's just not the same guy he was a few years ago. But mandate number one for New England's defense will have to be slowing the running game: Tom Coughlin has shown that he will stick with the ground attack as long as it continues to have even moderate success, and if the Giants are still hanging around late, they'll continue to pound New England's defense. No matter how well Eli Manning has been playing, they'd still much rather force him to try to win the game through the air than let Jacobs and Bradshaw churn out yards and control the clock.

Since execution is so rarely an issue for the Pats, let's assume the following: whatever part of their offense is working best, they'll stick with until they feel confident the Giants defense is selling out to stop it, at which point they'll attack where they think the Giants have left themselves vulnerable. If the ground game is going strong, New York will be in big trouble. Defensively, let's assume they load the box to stop the run and roll an extra guy towards Plaxico Burress. If it works, I could see the Patriots with a three touchdown lead by intermission, making this the worst Super Bowl in memory, an appropriate end to what I'd consider the worst NFL season in my lifetime.

For the Giants to win, they can't let Tom Brady settle in back there and develop a good rhythm. They absolutely MUST get pressure in his face, and by all means, that should include blitzing. This idea that a team has to get pressure on Tom Brady with just the front four is ridiculous, there's way too much risk involved in that strategy: if you fail, as the Redskins did, the Pats will pick their way down the field with underneath stuff all day long and your offense will never see the field. I don't know, maybe I'm crazy, but I think you bracket Wes Welker between two cover-two drops underneath, overload the opposite side with a heavy blitz, and force Tom Brady to either a) make a quick throw to the blitz side, which would likely be to Randy Moss, who is usually running a deeper patter, or b) fit a ball into bracket coverage with very little time to make a read while a blitz bears down from the opposite side. Obviously, you can't do that every time, but if you try it a couple of times and have success, you'll have Tom Brady out of rhythm. The cover-2 drops will also make throws underneath to Faulk or in the seam to Watson more difficult, and even if Brady connects on a deep ball to Randy Moss, how many of those throws is he going to make? If it fails, it fails, but the absolute worst thing that could happen in a game against the Patriots is Tom Brady sitting in the pocket, clean as a whistle, throwing 7 yard square-in patterns to Wes Welker and the occasional curl-dump to Kevin Faulk, establishing a rhythm, wearing out your defense, owning the clock, and marching up and down the field all day long. Trust me, I know. I watched the Skins lose by 45 points to a Patriots team that did that exact thing.

Offensively, the Giants need to run straight up the middle. It took me 18 seasons of watching the guy, but I finally know what Junior Seau does best as a linebacker: he attacks zone blocking and makes plays going downhill. I even know why he does it so well: lest anyone forget, this guy played most of his career in San Diego, against the Broncos, who pretty much invented zone blocking and downhill running. He sees zone blocking and looks for exactly what the runningback is looking for: a seam. When he sees it, he rushes in and fills the gap. He did it inside the five yard line against the Chargers on Sunday, hitting Michael Turner for a three yard loss. Bruschi and Seau and Adalius Thomas and Mike Vrabel don't have much in common, but they do have one thing: they're very tough between the tackles. Nevertheless, this is the way to attack this defense, as with any 3-4 defense. Brandon Jacobs does his best work between the tackles, and he's almost always good for an extra yard or two after contact. The Giants simply CANNOT let the Patriots force them out of their comfort zone. There's a psychological game being played here; teams know the Pats want to stop them from executing their bread and butter. Stupid coaches think that means they can shock the Patriots by anticipating that and coming out with a different bread and butter, but that's what the Patriots want, they want you to go away from your bread and butter, and the less they have to do to make that happen, the better! In order to beat the Patriots, you must do what you do best, and you must do it well. The Giants must run the ball, they must run it between the tackles, and they must run it well. If the Patriots can't force your offense to be one-dimensional, you've already won a little psychological victory over them.

Plaxico Burress will make it much easier for the Giants to run the ball, and here's how: he's maybe the NFL's best possession receiver. If the Giants need 6 yards on third down because they only got 4 pounding the interior of the defense on first and second down, Plaxico can pretty easily win his individual match-up and get a first down catch. Imagine the Giants establishing a rhythm of pounding the ball on first and second down, wearing down the defense, converting third downs with short throws, and moving the ball. Suddenly, playaction opportunities abound and Amani Toomer is working one on one in an empty half of the field while the defense creeps closer and closer to the line and sells out more and more to stop Burress. That's a strategy for success, and that's exactly what the Patriots don't want to happen. You see? They want to eliminate your strengths because they recognize those strengths give you a good chance of winning! Don't abandon them, they're your best hope of winning the Super Bowl, your opponent knows it!

Execution is sometimes a problem for the Giants. If they execute offensively, as they did in week 17, they will be in the game. If they also execute defensively, they will win the game. Offensively, they have the personnel to run the ball successfully. They may not be as talented as the Patriots, but they have the players to do what they need to do. Defensively, they're the more talented team. With the exception of pure speed in the secondary, they have better athletes pretty much across the board. It will all come down to execution. The Giants secondary failed to execute on a deep ball to Randy Moss in week 17, and it cost them the game. It could come down to that. If the Giants win the game, it will be one of the great upsets in NFL history, and one of the greatest endings to an NFL season ever. It will also be a victory for peace, democracy, the environment, the tooth fairy, Disney World, Rudy, puppies, and anything else that's good and not bad.

Now, a few other things:

1. What the hell is going on with the Washington Redskins head-coach search? This is why Skins fans are so ornery and constipated all the time: Dan Snyder is interviewing Jim Fassel for the head coach spot. Jim Fassel? Oh my God, I will have a very hard time rooting for the Redskins if they hire Jim Fassel. Whatever happened to hiring a coach for the long-term? Jesus, I thought they brought old Joe back to rebuild the franchise, put it on solid ground, so they could build for the future. Hiring Jim Fassel is like putting a five year fuse on the team: if it doesn't happen in five years, he's gone. If it DOES happen in five years, he's gone. Plus, he's not a great coach, and he upstages his team by being a dumb-ass! Whatever happened to stock-piling guys like Gregg Williams and Al Saunders specifically as successors to Joe Gibbs? Yeesh. This is a disaster. First they tried to get Bill Cowher (thank God that fell through). Then they scared the shit out of me by interviewing Jim Mora Jr. Now this? Why does it always have to be some big name? Why not Russ Grimm? Why not Gregg Williams? Seriously, what is Dan Snyder thinking?

There are two terrible things that could happen to the Redskins this off-season: 1) they could hire a guy like Bill Cowher, who'll want personnel control and will bring in a whole new crew of coaches, with new schemes, and force the team through a period of major upheaval. 2) They could hire a guy like Jim Fassel, who's old and won't be around for long, isn't a great coach, and won't maintain the kind of quiet, hard-working professionalism that has become the identity of the team the past few seasons. Think about his stint in New York: he had Michael Strahan and Tiki Barber both frequently embarrassing themselves and the team in the media, he twice made a spectacle of himself with public performance guarantees, and the team underperformed year after year. Beyond that, how long is Jim Fassel going to be the head coach of the Redskins? Why aren't they looking for a guy who can be here for the next 15 years, like Jeff Fisher has been in Tennessee or Bill Cowher was in Pittsburgh? There are young-ish guys out there in the NFL who are perfectly capable of taking what Gibbs built in Washington, building on it, and maintaining it for the next decade and a half!

Damn these Redskins. They never get it right.

2. Pretty soon there'll be nothing to talk about except off-season football, NBA basketball, and college hoops. With that in mind, here are some NBA thoughts:

There are a handful of teams in the NBA I really can't get enough of: the Portland Trailblazers, the New Orleans Hornets, the Gilbert Arenas-less Washington Wizards, and the Golden State Warriors. The Trailblazers and Hornets are the kinds of teams I typically gush over: young and talented rosters on franchises that have spent much of their recent history in the toilet. I love that. The Blazers have a deep roster of exciting young players, and they have a real center-piece in Brandon Roy. Roy is just the kind of guy you want as your franchise player: talented, versatile, likable, with a basketball brain. He's not Josh Smith, a freakish athlete with almost no natural basketball smarts. LaMarcus Aldridge is a developing interior player, Jaret Jack is a dependable backcourt scorer and defender, and they've got a double-handful of effective roll-players. Travis Outlaw looks like an emerging playmaker as well. I love this team! I could watch them every night. As for the Hornets, Chris Paul is a beast. Tyson Chandler has developed into an explosive, dominant interior player. David West is like the NCAA version of Chandler, less explosive, but fundamentally sound and effective. They lack great shooting (strange on a team with Peja Stojacovic), but then again, the Utah Jazz were never a great outside shooting team, and the Hornets use the same type of combo play that make Stockton and Malone so unstoppable in the 90s. The Gilbert Arenas-less Wizards are finally a strong defensive team, they finally play unselfish basketball, and they finally play like a group that cares more about winning as a team than about winning individual match-ups. Gilbert is a remarkably competitive guy, I'm not suggesting he's a stat-player or anything like that, but I've known players in my life who played with such an enormous chip on their shoulders and were so competitive in individual match-ups that it hurt their teams. I respect Gilbert, I respect his competitive fire, but there's absolutely ZERO doubt that the Wizards are a better team without him. Now, if only they could figure out a way to get something for him. It'll never happen, but if they could . . . I also love the Golden State Warriors. Baron Davis is just so great to watch. I think there are only a couple of players in the NBA that can dominate a game in as many ways as Baron Davis, and maybe only one who can do it at his position. The entire identity of the Golden State Warriors revolves around his versatility and explosiveness, but that's not to say they are a one man show: Stephen Jackson is the perfect compliment to Davis, ideally suited to take advantage of the opportunities presented by Davis, and they've found a very capable big man in Andris Biedrins. Monta Ellis and Al Harrington are versatile athletes, and their bench is loaded with solid pros. It's the kind of team I'd make out of create-a-players in NBA Live and never get tired of.

In truth, there are now officially more teams in the NBA that I like than there are that I dislike. In addition to those mentioned above, I find myself rooting for the Raptors, Pistons, Spurs, Jazz, Magic, Bobcats, Hawks, Bulls, Sixers, Bucks, Clippers, Sonics, and T-Wolves (yes, even with Kevin "Not One Fucking Clue" McHale running the show). The only teams in the NBA I'm not crazy about are the front-loaded, unlikable and unwatchable Nuggets, the team-that-should-not-be-allowed-to-call-themselves-the Knicks, the Nets (I can't stand Jason Kidd or Vince Carter), and the too-depressing-to-watch-for-even-one-second-DAMNYOUPATRILEY!!!!! Miami Heat. I will occasionally root for literally every other team in the league, including the Lakers (Andrew Bynum) and Celtics (Kevin Garnett).

It's taken me this long to get going with this NBA season. I think a lot of it has to do with the Redskins season having meaning longer than it has in recent years and the fact that I'd grown incredibly luke-warm towards the Wizards with Eddie Jordan and Gilbert Arenas running the show. Now that Gilbert is effectively out of the picture, I can start rooting for the home team again.