You know, I haven't had much success with my picks so far this year. The best I've done in any week to this point is a 10-5 effort, which isn't exactly blowing anyone's hair back. While some may react to such a poor showing by stepping back, evaluating their method of making picks, apply some sort of reliable scientific method, and come back with a reinvented, rock-solid pick-making philosophy, I simply retreated from rationalizing my picks with any sort of football knowledge, and started going with as many home teams as possible. That, my friends, is a baloney approach, and recognizing that, I labeled it a ball-less move, the act of a coward.
Am I here to apply a studied, scientific approach? Am I here to flex my NFL brain muscles? Is this where I unleash my considerable wealth of football knowledge on the world? Hell no. I'm taking a different route altogether. In addition to my chicken-shit picks, which remove my instincts from the equation altogether and rely, for the most part, on overall records and home-field advantage, I'm doing a set of emotion picks. That's right, I'm picking the team I want to win, and then I'm going to waste a paragraph trying to convince myself they can pull it off.
And here we go:
Baltimore @ Buffalo
Of course I'm picking Buffalo, as I did in my regular picks. Why? Because I like them better. But in the interest of appearing as anything but a hopeless moron, why not lay out some reasons? Trent Edwards has looked solid in his two starts, and it looks like that's the direction the Bills are going in this game. Lee Evans has yet to break out, but look at how Braylon Edwards torched Chris McAlister in Cleveland's win over the Ravens. Evans is a hell of an athlete. Buffalo doesn't have much of a defense, but how much of a defense do you need against the Ravens, who can't score for jack and have Kyle Boller in at quarterback? Plus, this is a trap game for Baltimore, with their bye week up next and then the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Please don't tell me the Ravens players aren't looking at this as bye 1 before bye 2 next week. Give me the Bills.
San Francisco @ New York Giants
Of course I'm taking the 49ers. I put Frank Gore back on my fantasy roster this week, so I need a big game from him. On the other hand, the 49ers are coming off of a bye week, and I insist Mike Nolan is a better coach than Tom Coughlin. Derrick Ward is hurt, Frank Gore is a better runner than Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward combined anyway. Alex Smith and Vernon Davis may be back and healthy, and the Giants are a volatile team with a shallow roster and a lousy coach. I've hated the Giants far worse than I do this season, but I'm still no fan. The 49ers are due a breakout game and the Giants have an unpredictable defense, at best.
Go 49ers!
New England @ Miami
I like the Patriots, I can't stand Miami, I'll feel just fine when New England wins this one by 30 points. Like everyone else, I'll take the Pats.
Tennessee @ Houston
I took the Titans in my regular picks, I'm taking them here. I like them better. I think they have a superior coach, a superior defense, a superior running game, and I just prefer them. Vince Young hasn't had a great passing game so far this season, and he's injured (wait, watch how I spin this). With his injured quad, he'll be rooted in the pocket. That means the Titans are going to pound the ball to set up play-action, that means they won't use the QB option play they've run so much this season, that means when they do pass, they'll spread the field so Vince can make quick reads and get rid of the ball. Also, Houston's defense has been pretty poor in their last few outings, including a genuine ass-kicking from the Jags last Sunday. This is a pretty thin argument, but lest we forget, these are the Texans were talking about. They've had the last 5 years to show us they know how to lose a football game. Jeff Fisher is a great coach, why not take the Titans?
Tampa Bay @ Detroit
You know, I don't really have a favorite team in this one. I like the Bucs, I like the Lions. The Lions need the win more than the Bucs, and I kinda feel a bit guilty about the pounding they took at the hands of my Skins in their last outing. Tampa Bay has earned the right to lose a game with all their injuries, whereas another loss, this time off of a bye week and at home, would undoubtedly throw the Lions franchise into panic mode. I guess I'd prefer that the Lions win the game. Also, they have an explosive offense and Kevin Jones is healthy for the first time all year. Jeff Garcia is due to throw a pick, and the Lions are second in the NFL in interceptions. The Bucs are perilously thin right now, if they sustain an injury in this game, I don't see them recovering, and as more and more of the offense is put on Garcia's shoulders, the Bucs will be more limited and more predictable. The Lions had two weeks to prepare and are at home. Give me the Lions.
Atlanta @ New Orleans
New Orleans is my clear favorite in this one, and not just because I like them so much more than the Falcons. Atlanta might get a boost from starting Byron Leftwich, but they're just as likely to take a big hideous step backwards. New Orleans had a little rhythm going against the Seahawks, and though the Seahawks are truly terrible, they're a lot better than the Falcons. New Orleans is at home and needs the win more than Atlanta. Also, the Saints were in the NFC championship game last year. That must mean something. I'll take the Saints.
Arizona @ Washington
I'm a homer, so I'm taking the Skins anyway. But this pick comes down to quarterbacks; Zona may not have one. If Warner plays, he'll have the shakes big time. If anybody but Warner plays, fuggettaboutit. The Redskins need the win, they're at home, they have a quarterback, and their defense is a lot better. Damn it, I'm taking the Skins.
Kansas City @ Oakland
I can't stand the Chiefs. I like Lane Kiffin and the Raiders. It's in Oakland. KC just traded away their change of pace in Michael Bennett, they have awful quarterbacks, and Herm Edwards is a lousy coach. Give me Oakland's defense over Kansas City's any day. Oakland has more big play potential, and they've been tough in every game this year. The Raiders will win.
New York Jets @ Cincinnati
I don't really like the Bengals, I really don't like the Jets. The Bengals have an explosive offense and are at home, the Jets have an anemic offense and are on the road. The defenses are a push. Home field advantage + better offense + I like them better = Go Bengals.
Minnesota @ Dallas
Ok, here goes. Dallas hasn't beaten anybody with a winning record, and they got pounded by New England. Minnesota has the best individual player in this game, a super-duper strong two-headed ground attack, and a tough as hell defense. This could be a trap game for Dallas, coming off their big loss. They could very easily look at this as an easy, get-healthy game against an inferior opponent. Tony Romo has looked suspect in two straight outings, and the Vikings pass-rush is quite fearsome. Wow, that looks pretty thin. Holy shit, that really is pretty pathetic. Screw it, GOOOOOO VIKINGS!
Chicago @ Philadelphia
I don't really prefer either team in this game. I like Donovan McNabb a lot, I'm a big Brian Westbrook fan, I still believe in Andy Reid. I like Lovie Smith a lot, I don't give two shits about Cedric Benson, and Brian Griese can kiss my ass. I'm not too psyched about another strong NFC East team, but on the other hand, I'm not sure I'll know how to process an NFL where the Eagles aren't stomping around bullying the rest of the division. Also, it's in Philly, Chicago's defense has been really awful, they have no offense, and McNabb and Westbrook are the two best offensive players in the game. Oh, and L. J. Smith is getting healthy, he's a nice weapon for McNabb. I like the Eagles.
St. Louis @ Seattle
Blech. Uhh, I guess I like underdogs. Seattle is a lousy, overrated team. They crapped the bed against the winless Saints. The Rams have Marc Bulger back, and that really does mean something, especially if he's healthy. I can't believe the only thing they had behind Stephen Jackson was rookie Brian Leonard, a fullback from Rutgers. Yipe. Wait . . .what am I doing? Undermining my pick? Tory Holt is explosive and dangerous, Bulger can still sling it around, the Rams need a win, the Seahawks are a fraud. Go Rams!
Pittsburgh @ Denver
I really really like the Steelers this year and it probably has a lot to due with me really wanting Mike Tomlin to work out as a head coach in the NFL. I respect the Rooney family and the Steelers franchise for their loyalty to their head coaches. As for Denver, I've always been luke-warm about the Broncos, at best, and never much more than luke-warm for Mike Shanahan, though I do think he's been a good head coach and deserves better than the constant questions about his future in Denver. Therefore, I want the Steelers to win this game. Also, I think they ought to win the game, having the better quarterback, better receiving corps, and much much better defense. The Broncos seem to be in nose-dive mode right now, and the Steelers have not been the kind of team to let nose-diving squads up off the mat. I don't feel like a very compelling argument is needed here, I'd bet everyone outside of Colorado is taking the Steelers, and so am I.
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
I prefer the Colts by a factor of 10. I like everything about this team. I have every reason in the world to root for the Jaguars, including the fact that I like Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew, David Gerrard, their entire defense, even Reggie Williams. But I can't stand Jack Del Rio, so I'll never root for this team. The Colts are undefeated, they've got all their players back healthy, and the Jaguars look pretty familiar to them. David Gerrard is bound to throw an interception sooner or later, why not when Dwight Freeney is bearing down on him, or Bob Sanders is causing his receivers to short-arm his throws, or Indy's speedy linebackers are flying around in coverage, or his team is down by two scores to an explosive Colts offense? Yeah, I'm taking the Colts.
There you have it. I only picked 3 games differently from my regular picks, but I swear to you, if this set of picks is more successful, even by one game, than the regular set, I'm sticking with it for another week, at least.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
They Make it Easy to be Ball-less.
I had a feeling I was going to be home-team happy in Week 7 after a very shaky 7-6 outing on Sunday. Then I took a long, hard look at the Week 7 match-ups, and you know what? Who wouldn't be home-team happy? There are a lot of games in Week 7 that would be too close to call on neutral soil, you've gotta go with the home team. Without further ado . . .
Baltimore @ Buffalo
I have warm feelings for the Buffalo Bills, I might be the only guy outside of Buffalo that doesn't think they are as bad as their record. They've been hit hard by injuries and have a team full of new starters. I know they played Dallas about as well as they possibly could, and I think this Bills team has some character. I'll tell you this much, they're not the train wreck some other 1-win teams in the NFL are, and Baltimore isn't exactly taking anyone's breath away. Is this a tough game to call on neutral soil? Probably not, but it's in Buffalo, and I think Baltimore is totally bogus.
Bills over Ravens, 17-12 The Ravens can't get in the end-zone, and this looks to me like a trap game for Baltimore, right before the bye week and then in Pittsburgh in week 9.
San Francisco @ New York Giants
I'd be thrilled if San Francisco won this game, and not just because I hate the idea of the Giants putting any more distance between themselves and the Redskins and I need a big game from Frank Gore. The Giants are the more talented team and they've got a lot of momentum going right now, having won 4 in a row. The 49ers look for all the world like a piece of shit offense and a piece of shit defense. The only hope they have comes from the fact that they had two weeks to prepare and get healthy, and that the Giants are still a fragile group with a volatile coach and locker room. Go 49ers!
Giants over 49ers, 31-17 Wait, you didn't think I was actually going to pick the niners, did you?
New England @ Miami
Yeah right.
Patriots over Dolphins 31-6 The Patriots have nothing to prove by running it up in this one.
Update 10/17: The Dolphins traded Chris Chambers to the Chargers for a second round pick. That's a great deal for the Dolphins, who ought to be thinking long-term right about now. Chambers is a good receiver, but this team won't be contending again until he's an old man, and a second round pick is GREAT value.
Tennessee @ Houston
Ooooh, I think this is a tough one. Houston might have Andre Johnson back for this game, that'd be huge for them. Tennessee needs a healthy and productive Vince Young to have a realistic shot at accomplishing much this season, and both teams REALLY need this game. Because the Titans have been tough in every game and the Texans seem to be nose-diving, I'm forced to take the road team. Though I think Gary Kubiak is a great coach, I think Jeff Fisher is an even better coach.
Titans over Texans, 24-21
Tampa Bay @ Detroit
The Bucs made a brilliant trade for Michael Bennett. I don't know what to say about the Chiefs making that deal, except there's no way I'd part with Michael Bennett after the season LJ has had so far and the staggering amount of work he's had in the past 2+ seasons. But Tampa Bay barely took a home win against a seriously depleted Tennessee team on Sunday, and now they're headed into Detroit to take on a much more explosive group coming off of a bye. I'd take Tampa anywhere else, but in Detroit I'm going with the Lions.
Lions over Bucs, 28-17 And Garcia will throw his first pick. The Lions are near the top of the NFL in takeaways.
Update 10/17: Ok, the Chiefs got two draft picks for Michael Bennett, and I've had a complete reverse of opinion on this. The Chiefs fleeced the Bucs. Also, why hasn't Michael Bennett turned up in Denver yet? He's tailor-made for Shanahan's one-cut system.
Atlanta @ New Orleans
I don't think much of either team in this matchup, but New Orleans had a pulse in their win over the Seahawks, whereas the Falcons looked like dead meat in their destruction at the hands of the Giants at home on Sunday. I don't think I can pick Atlanta under any circumstances right now. I might not pick them at home against the Rams.
Saints over Falcons, 16-13
Arizona @ Washington
Do I trust the Redskins to give a predictable effort at home? Hell no. But Arizona is in big big trouble at the quarterback position, and the Redskins seem to have come together as a defensive unit. The formula here ought to be real simple: if the Redskins can put two touchdowns on the board and PLAY WELL IN THE SECOND HALF, they should easily win at home.
Redskins over Cardinals, 21-10
Kansas City @ Oakland
Now here's a matchup between lowly AFC teams that I can actually give a damn about. See, I like the Raiders and Lane Kiffin, and I can't stand the Chiefs and Herm Edwards. I also think the Raiders are a tougher, smarter, more resilient group, and I don't think the importance of getting this home win in their division in a game that gives them a chance to assert themselves as better than someone else in their awful division will be lost on them. Both teams will run, both teams will struggle to pass, but the Raiders are off a bye week and have a good head coach.
Raiders over Chiefs, 10-6
New York Jets @ Cincinnati
This might be the last time I pick the Bengals all year. If they can't get healthy against a really awful Jets team at home, they might not win another game all year. I mean it. The only problem is, I think the Bengals players are looking at this game as a get healthy game, and that scares me. This team looks right past every opponent, as they did against the Chiefs on Sunday. You know what? If this game were being played anywhere else in the world, even another town in Ohio, I'd pick the Jets.
Bengals over Jets, 31-24 Here's hoping.
Minnesota @ Dallas
Would it shock me if Minnesota came out and won this game? No way, not one bit. They're going to pound the ball at a very suspect Dallas defense. Tarvaris Jackson might not see a third and long all game. Minnesota has a tough defense, 31 points from the Bears notwithstanding. Dallas needs to rebound and heal their bruised ego after a rough pounding at home from the Patriots, and there's enough pride and there are enough professionals on the Cowboys that I expect they won't let this one slip. Also, Marion Barber is an incredible football player, a ferocious tough-guy who plays with enough balls and guts for everyone on the Dallas roster.
Cowboys over Vikings, 24-14
Chicago @ Philadelphia
This is a scary game for the Eagles, who looked pretty weak against the pitiful Jets and have just the right combination of weaknesses for a hungry and desperate Bears team to feast on. Lovie Smith is a great, great football coach, whereas Andy Reid is a hybernating football coach. The Eagles have much more talent and explosiveness, but Devin Hester is terrifying and the Bears have a lot more guts and attitude than the Eagles, who look like they'd much rather be doing anything other than playing football on Sundays. Where has the joy gone in Philadelphia? Still, it's in Philly, and I think the teams are evenly matched on paper.
Eagles over Bears, 27-24
St. Louis @ Seattle
Just to be perfectly clear, I don't like the Seahawks, nor do I think they are a quality football team. Against just about any other opponent, I'd be picking against them. Seattle was the "get healthy" opponent for New Orleans, why couldn't the Rams have the same sort of outing, against a division foe? Here's why: I think Mike Holmgren will call a very straight forward game and keep everything very close to his chest in this one. After the debacle on Sunday night, the Seahawks need to get back to basics, and Holmgren is too good a coach to miss that. St. Louis is a dreadful team, and Seattle can use this home game to reestablish themselves as the team to beat in the NFC West.
Seahawks over Rams 35-10 It'll be disappointing for Seattle fans it it isn't this kind of blowout.
Pittsburgh @ Denver
I don't know, I don't think this one is as obvious as it might look. At some point, I expect the Broncos to get up off the mat. Their defense is atrocious; they still have Champ Bailey, Dre Bly, D. J. Williams, and John Lynch over there. They haven't been able to score consistently; they've also been without their top receiver for most of the season, and sooner or later Jay Cutler will string together a couple of nice games. They still have one of the top rushing offenses in the NFL, and they still have one of the strongest home-field advantages in the NFL, and damn it, despite what I said last week, Mike Shanahan is still a capable NFL coach with a terrific career record. Still . . .
Steelers over Broncos, 21-17 The Steelers have a hell of a defense, and Willie Parker and Najeh Davenport can go go go.
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
Now here's an interesting Monday nighter. I have mixed feelings about this game and a lot to say about it. Indianapolis is a consistent, tough, smart, professional team with great leadership and a champion's mentality. Jacksonville looks to me like an inconsistent, fragile, plucky young group with a lot to prove and not a lot of history to lean on. Jacksonville has yet to have to overcome turnovers, but sooner or later David Gerrard is gonna throw a pick or two. The Jaguars defense hasn't seen anything like the Colts offense this year, but they've seen 'em in the past and shouldn't be caught with their pants down. Wow, this is a tough one. If the Colts had 'em at home, it'd be a no-brainer for me, but they're traveling to Jacksonville. On the other hand, I don't know that that means much; I've been to Jacksonville, I might have been the only person there, and I don't think the Jags are the kind of team you can depend on to make much of a home-field boost. I just don't think you can pick against the Colts until they lose, how about that?
Colts over Jaguars, 21-20 I have a hard time picturing the Jags getting blown out in this one, though that's exactly what I'll be rooting for.
One more NFL note: I'm getting a little frustrated at reading NFL-knowers talk about an undefeated season being unrealistic for the Patriots, or any other truly great team in the future. I've also had to read more than enough about how Tom Brady won't break the touchdown record, though he's on pace to toss 56 scores. The logic behind these arguments is based on the thought that the Patriots won't be playing for anything in weeks 15-17, which is totally bogus and ridiculous. May I remind everyone that the Colts are undefeated and the Steelers are a one loss team? Though both teams play in tougher divisions, by a wide margin, than the Patriots, it's perfectly reasonable to think either of these teams could pull off a 1 or 2 loss season, which would mean that homefield advantage in the AFC playoffs would be in doubt all the way up to the final week. The Colts are the defending Super Bowl champion and have looked several degrees better than every team that doesn't play in Foxboro. Let's say the Colts lose their matchup with the Patriots and then resume beating every team they're expected to beat, which is to say, everyone left on their schedule. The Patriots won't have secured home-field throughout until they've secured a one-loss or undefeated regular season, and for everyone that watched the Colts run to the Super Bowl in 2006 and has seen them play this season, you know even the Pats won't be happy to face them in Indianapolis in the postseason. To sum up the stupidity of the "undefeated team is unrealistic argument", all you need is a second great team in the same conference to push the undefeated-hopeful through the final week. As far as Tom Brady goes, do you see this team slowing down one bit? Not just for the season, but even in the fourth quarter of blow-out victories? There's no reason to expect he'll tail off to any degree that would keep him from at least threatening the record, and if the Patriots are indeed forced to play through the end of the regular season, as I expect they will, Brady will be lighting it up the whole way, which is great news for my fantasy team. In other fantasy news, Washington's last ranked defense from 2006 has been replaced by a third ranked defense in 2007. Booyah.
Also, they play the Colts in Indianapolis in their Nov. 4 matchup, and if they should lose, we might have to look at the Colts as a realistic undefeated-hopeful. New England has a more favorable schedule in weeks 15-17, with games against woeful teams in their division and then the Giants in a Sunday nighter. The Colts finish up against Tennessee and Houston, and those could very well be meaningful games for the Texans and Titans. Also, ALSO, why couldn't the Patriots beat the Giants with backups on the field? With an undefeated season on the line, I'd expect a hell of an effort against a team that will also likely know the outcome of it's season heading into the game.
Hopefully another solid showing with the picks in Week 7. I think this week was a bit easier to call than some other weeks. It's definitely the kind of week where, if I get a bunch of games wrong, I can throw my hands up and say "who knew?"
Go Skynards.
Baltimore @ Buffalo
I have warm feelings for the Buffalo Bills, I might be the only guy outside of Buffalo that doesn't think they are as bad as their record. They've been hit hard by injuries and have a team full of new starters. I know they played Dallas about as well as they possibly could, and I think this Bills team has some character. I'll tell you this much, they're not the train wreck some other 1-win teams in the NFL are, and Baltimore isn't exactly taking anyone's breath away. Is this a tough game to call on neutral soil? Probably not, but it's in Buffalo, and I think Baltimore is totally bogus.
Bills over Ravens, 17-12 The Ravens can't get in the end-zone, and this looks to me like a trap game for Baltimore, right before the bye week and then in Pittsburgh in week 9.
San Francisco @ New York Giants
I'd be thrilled if San Francisco won this game, and not just because I hate the idea of the Giants putting any more distance between themselves and the Redskins and I need a big game from Frank Gore. The Giants are the more talented team and they've got a lot of momentum going right now, having won 4 in a row. The 49ers look for all the world like a piece of shit offense and a piece of shit defense. The only hope they have comes from the fact that they had two weeks to prepare and get healthy, and that the Giants are still a fragile group with a volatile coach and locker room. Go 49ers!
Giants over 49ers, 31-17 Wait, you didn't think I was actually going to pick the niners, did you?
New England @ Miami
Yeah right.
Patriots over Dolphins 31-6 The Patriots have nothing to prove by running it up in this one.
Update 10/17: The Dolphins traded Chris Chambers to the Chargers for a second round pick. That's a great deal for the Dolphins, who ought to be thinking long-term right about now. Chambers is a good receiver, but this team won't be contending again until he's an old man, and a second round pick is GREAT value.
Tennessee @ Houston
Ooooh, I think this is a tough one. Houston might have Andre Johnson back for this game, that'd be huge for them. Tennessee needs a healthy and productive Vince Young to have a realistic shot at accomplishing much this season, and both teams REALLY need this game. Because the Titans have been tough in every game and the Texans seem to be nose-diving, I'm forced to take the road team. Though I think Gary Kubiak is a great coach, I think Jeff Fisher is an even better coach.
Titans over Texans, 24-21
Tampa Bay @ Detroit
The Bucs made a brilliant trade for Michael Bennett. I don't know what to say about the Chiefs making that deal, except there's no way I'd part with Michael Bennett after the season LJ has had so far and the staggering amount of work he's had in the past 2+ seasons. But Tampa Bay barely took a home win against a seriously depleted Tennessee team on Sunday, and now they're headed into Detroit to take on a much more explosive group coming off of a bye. I'd take Tampa anywhere else, but in Detroit I'm going with the Lions.
Lions over Bucs, 28-17 And Garcia will throw his first pick. The Lions are near the top of the NFL in takeaways.
Update 10/17: Ok, the Chiefs got two draft picks for Michael Bennett, and I've had a complete reverse of opinion on this. The Chiefs fleeced the Bucs. Also, why hasn't Michael Bennett turned up in Denver yet? He's tailor-made for Shanahan's one-cut system.
Atlanta @ New Orleans
I don't think much of either team in this matchup, but New Orleans had a pulse in their win over the Seahawks, whereas the Falcons looked like dead meat in their destruction at the hands of the Giants at home on Sunday. I don't think I can pick Atlanta under any circumstances right now. I might not pick them at home against the Rams.
Saints over Falcons, 16-13
Arizona @ Washington
Do I trust the Redskins to give a predictable effort at home? Hell no. But Arizona is in big big trouble at the quarterback position, and the Redskins seem to have come together as a defensive unit. The formula here ought to be real simple: if the Redskins can put two touchdowns on the board and PLAY WELL IN THE SECOND HALF, they should easily win at home.
Redskins over Cardinals, 21-10
Kansas City @ Oakland
Now here's a matchup between lowly AFC teams that I can actually give a damn about. See, I like the Raiders and Lane Kiffin, and I can't stand the Chiefs and Herm Edwards. I also think the Raiders are a tougher, smarter, more resilient group, and I don't think the importance of getting this home win in their division in a game that gives them a chance to assert themselves as better than someone else in their awful division will be lost on them. Both teams will run, both teams will struggle to pass, but the Raiders are off a bye week and have a good head coach.
Raiders over Chiefs, 10-6
New York Jets @ Cincinnati
This might be the last time I pick the Bengals all year. If they can't get healthy against a really awful Jets team at home, they might not win another game all year. I mean it. The only problem is, I think the Bengals players are looking at this game as a get healthy game, and that scares me. This team looks right past every opponent, as they did against the Chiefs on Sunday. You know what? If this game were being played anywhere else in the world, even another town in Ohio, I'd pick the Jets.
Bengals over Jets, 31-24 Here's hoping.
Minnesota @ Dallas
Would it shock me if Minnesota came out and won this game? No way, not one bit. They're going to pound the ball at a very suspect Dallas defense. Tarvaris Jackson might not see a third and long all game. Minnesota has a tough defense, 31 points from the Bears notwithstanding. Dallas needs to rebound and heal their bruised ego after a rough pounding at home from the Patriots, and there's enough pride and there are enough professionals on the Cowboys that I expect they won't let this one slip. Also, Marion Barber is an incredible football player, a ferocious tough-guy who plays with enough balls and guts for everyone on the Dallas roster.
Cowboys over Vikings, 24-14
Chicago @ Philadelphia
This is a scary game for the Eagles, who looked pretty weak against the pitiful Jets and have just the right combination of weaknesses for a hungry and desperate Bears team to feast on. Lovie Smith is a great, great football coach, whereas Andy Reid is a hybernating football coach. The Eagles have much more talent and explosiveness, but Devin Hester is terrifying and the Bears have a lot more guts and attitude than the Eagles, who look like they'd much rather be doing anything other than playing football on Sundays. Where has the joy gone in Philadelphia? Still, it's in Philly, and I think the teams are evenly matched on paper.
Eagles over Bears, 27-24
St. Louis @ Seattle
Just to be perfectly clear, I don't like the Seahawks, nor do I think they are a quality football team. Against just about any other opponent, I'd be picking against them. Seattle was the "get healthy" opponent for New Orleans, why couldn't the Rams have the same sort of outing, against a division foe? Here's why: I think Mike Holmgren will call a very straight forward game and keep everything very close to his chest in this one. After the debacle on Sunday night, the Seahawks need to get back to basics, and Holmgren is too good a coach to miss that. St. Louis is a dreadful team, and Seattle can use this home game to reestablish themselves as the team to beat in the NFC West.
Seahawks over Rams 35-10 It'll be disappointing for Seattle fans it it isn't this kind of blowout.
Pittsburgh @ Denver
I don't know, I don't think this one is as obvious as it might look. At some point, I expect the Broncos to get up off the mat. Their defense is atrocious; they still have Champ Bailey, Dre Bly, D. J. Williams, and John Lynch over there. They haven't been able to score consistently; they've also been without their top receiver for most of the season, and sooner or later Jay Cutler will string together a couple of nice games. They still have one of the top rushing offenses in the NFL, and they still have one of the strongest home-field advantages in the NFL, and damn it, despite what I said last week, Mike Shanahan is still a capable NFL coach with a terrific career record. Still . . .
Steelers over Broncos, 21-17 The Steelers have a hell of a defense, and Willie Parker and Najeh Davenport can go go go.
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
Now here's an interesting Monday nighter. I have mixed feelings about this game and a lot to say about it. Indianapolis is a consistent, tough, smart, professional team with great leadership and a champion's mentality. Jacksonville looks to me like an inconsistent, fragile, plucky young group with a lot to prove and not a lot of history to lean on. Jacksonville has yet to have to overcome turnovers, but sooner or later David Gerrard is gonna throw a pick or two. The Jaguars defense hasn't seen anything like the Colts offense this year, but they've seen 'em in the past and shouldn't be caught with their pants down. Wow, this is a tough one. If the Colts had 'em at home, it'd be a no-brainer for me, but they're traveling to Jacksonville. On the other hand, I don't know that that means much; I've been to Jacksonville, I might have been the only person there, and I don't think the Jags are the kind of team you can depend on to make much of a home-field boost. I just don't think you can pick against the Colts until they lose, how about that?
Colts over Jaguars, 21-20 I have a hard time picturing the Jags getting blown out in this one, though that's exactly what I'll be rooting for.
One more NFL note: I'm getting a little frustrated at reading NFL-knowers talk about an undefeated season being unrealistic for the Patriots, or any other truly great team in the future. I've also had to read more than enough about how Tom Brady won't break the touchdown record, though he's on pace to toss 56 scores. The logic behind these arguments is based on the thought that the Patriots won't be playing for anything in weeks 15-17, which is totally bogus and ridiculous. May I remind everyone that the Colts are undefeated and the Steelers are a one loss team? Though both teams play in tougher divisions, by a wide margin, than the Patriots, it's perfectly reasonable to think either of these teams could pull off a 1 or 2 loss season, which would mean that homefield advantage in the AFC playoffs would be in doubt all the way up to the final week. The Colts are the defending Super Bowl champion and have looked several degrees better than every team that doesn't play in Foxboro. Let's say the Colts lose their matchup with the Patriots and then resume beating every team they're expected to beat, which is to say, everyone left on their schedule. The Patriots won't have secured home-field throughout until they've secured a one-loss or undefeated regular season, and for everyone that watched the Colts run to the Super Bowl in 2006 and has seen them play this season, you know even the Pats won't be happy to face them in Indianapolis in the postseason. To sum up the stupidity of the "undefeated team is unrealistic argument", all you need is a second great team in the same conference to push the undefeated-hopeful through the final week. As far as Tom Brady goes, do you see this team slowing down one bit? Not just for the season, but even in the fourth quarter of blow-out victories? There's no reason to expect he'll tail off to any degree that would keep him from at least threatening the record, and if the Patriots are indeed forced to play through the end of the regular season, as I expect they will, Brady will be lighting it up the whole way, which is great news for my fantasy team. In other fantasy news, Washington's last ranked defense from 2006 has been replaced by a third ranked defense in 2007. Booyah.
Also, they play the Colts in Indianapolis in their Nov. 4 matchup, and if they should lose, we might have to look at the Colts as a realistic undefeated-hopeful. New England has a more favorable schedule in weeks 15-17, with games against woeful teams in their division and then the Giants in a Sunday nighter. The Colts finish up against Tennessee and Houston, and those could very well be meaningful games for the Texans and Titans. Also, ALSO, why couldn't the Patriots beat the Giants with backups on the field? With an undefeated season on the line, I'd expect a hell of an effort against a team that will also likely know the outcome of it's season heading into the game.
Hopefully another solid showing with the picks in Week 7. I think this week was a bit easier to call than some other weeks. It's definitely the kind of week where, if I get a bunch of games wrong, I can throw my hands up and say "who knew?"
Go Skynards.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Oh Happy Day!
I did not have the week that I had last week, but I still finished better than .500, and my fantasy team DOMINATED this Sunday behind breakout games from Tom Brady, Thomas Jones, Adrian Peterson, and Matt Hasselbeck. What a Sunday. Too bad the Skins lost. Eh.
Vikings over Bears, 34-31
My Pick: Bears over Vikings, 16-6
Obviously, the story of this game was Adrian Peterson, who is officially The Man. I'm still a bit puzzled that Chester Taylor carried the ball more, but who am I to say Brad Childress hasn't hit on something there? The fact that Peterson pulled off three monster touchdown runs and had enough gas in the tank to rip off a 53 yard kickoff return that essentially won the game for the Vikings has to be due, somewhat, to the fact that he split carries with Taylor, who was also effective against a struggling Bears defense. Even though they lost, I'd like to give a little credit to Lovie Smith, whose team continued to fight and make plays. This is supposed to be a team that stuffs the run and struggles to score, and against the Vikings, that ought to be the story of the game. They couldn't stop the run, and against a tough Minnesota defense, they stayed in the game and put 31 points on the board. That's a hell of an offensive game for the Bears. I expect the Bears to hang tough in every game this season, finish well below .500, and the moron sports media to call for Lovie's head. What a shame.
Browns over Dolphins, 41-31
My Pick: Browns over Dolphins, 24-13
Derek Anderson is a good quarterback, and he's doing everything he can to keep Brady Quinn on the bench. This may not be the Miami defense of yester-year, but when you put up 41 points on an NFL defense and toss 3 touchdowns, you can play some quarterback, and at .500 with a legitimate chance at the wild card in the AFC, you'd have to think the Browns would be forcing it if they stick Quinn in there under any circumstance other than a total meltdown. It's a shame that money plays such a key roll in NFL operations. Eventually, Quinn HAS to be the guy in Cleveland, the same way Palmer had to be the guy in Cincinnati after Kitna had started to put things together there; the same way Rivers had to be the guy in San Diego after a brilliant year from Drew Brees. But Anderson is a young quarterback that has a lot of chemistry with his options in Cleveland, and it'll be a shame when they yank him. It's hard to be a successful quarterback on your second team in the NFL. Maybe he can pull a Matt Schaub. Anyway, enough about that. Cleo Lemon played a respectable game: good for him. Cam Cameron went friggin' emo in the post-game press conference, expressing his pity for Miami's fans, former players, and owner. I know, instead of apologizing for fielding a joke of a team, how about apologizing for banking the immediate future of the franchise on 37 year old Trent Green, coming off of a major concussion, with no one behind him but Cleo Lemon and rookie John Beck? Nice job, Cam.
Packers over Redskins, 17-14
My Pick: Redskins over Packers, 27-17
I don't have a whole lot to say about this one, except that it showed, more than anything, that neither team is as good as their record entering the game. For the second week in a row, the Redskins broadcast the blueprint for shutting down the strong passing attack of a successful NFC opponent. For the second time in three weeks, they failed to play strong or score in the second half of a game they lead at halftime. The Packers showed that their defense isn't all that strong, that their passing attack isn't all that dangerous, that their running game actually is that bad, and the Brett Favre is still capable of killing his team. To me, it's a real shame that what ought to have been a chance for a surging upstart NFC contender to emerge as a superior, dangerous team ended up as an opportunity for two teams to reveal that they aren't actually very good at all. Hopefully BOTH teams will rebound, but frankly, I see both teams getting killed by the Cowboys. Oh, and I think the Skins were again undone by poor coaching. Sorry, Joe. Also on the coaching front, Joe Bugel is really earning that paycheck these days. If the Redskins have any more injuries on their offensive line, they might need old Joe to strap on a helmet. One more quick note here: I was avoiding thinking this, let alone actually commenting on it, but the friggin' Skins haven't beaten anyone. They barely put down the atrocious Dolphins, they buried a victory in Philly, they choked against the now 4-2 Giants, they accidentally put up 34 on Detroit, and then they choked against the now 5-1 Packers. They need a legitimate win, and they need to perform consistently, before I will consider them a serious contender in the awful NFC. I love the Redskins, but I'm getting a little tired of not knowing which Redskins team will show up each Sunday.
Chiefs over Bengals, 27-20
My Pick: Bengals over Chiefs, 30-10
Pretty depressing stuff, here. Maybe the Kansas City fans don't realize it, maybe their coaches and players don't get it, but every game they win is a wasted effort. Hell, even if they make the playoffs, it's a waste of time and energy. This team is going nowhere, and I officially hate their guts. Finally, at last, I have discovered what Herm Edwards is as a head coach: Herm is the guy you bring in to tear apart your team, chase away all your stars, take the Super Bowl off the table, and lower expectations across the board. Then, when he finally has a team full of nobodies, with no playmakers and no real chance of winning anything meaningful, he gets about 9 or 10 max-effort games against more talented teams every year, and everyone pats him on the back for getting so much out of so little. By the way, did everyone see his pre-game comments about preparing his team? I can't quote him exactly, but he basically said he told his men that he's done all he can do for them to win the game, he can't make a tackle, he can't catch a pass, all he can do is prepare them in the week and then they have to go out and win the game. That's exactly what I said about Herm Edwards, he doesn't coach on gameday. I don't know what to say to that, but if you think that's what you want in a head-coach, I feel sorry for you. Also, man those Bengals stink. They're in bad, bad shape right now, and Marvin is very close to losing his job.
Bucs over Titans, 13-10
My Pick: Bucs over Titans, 21-20
The Madden curse strikes again! You know, seriously, I'm getting really sick of NFL teams that only do enough to win, and even then only in regular season games. Where are all the good teams in the NFL? The NFC is a friggin' joke. I still like the Bucs, but come ON! You went a half against the Titans, at home, with Vince Young on the bench, and you won by only 3 points. I like Jeff Fisher and I think he's a great coach (see, I told you I'd say that every week), but there's no excuse for barely pulling this one off. I'm really sick of this. I want a few NFC teams to step up and play like serious contenders, this whole thing is really depressing. I don't really fault the Titans for only putting 10 points on the board, considering they were in Tampa and lost their franchise player to a quadriceps injury, but I'm a little worried that they actually moved the ball just as well, if not better, with Kerry Collins in the game. Eh, not to worry, Fisher'll figure it out.
Ravens over Rams, 22-3
My Pick: Ravens over Rams, 13-10
Except for the Rams not scoring a touchdown and Gus Frerotte playing like an absolute joke, I had this one nailed. The Ravens are a terrible offensive team! The only scored one touchdown in this game, and you have to think that's a major disappointment for Baltimore, against probably the weakest team in the NFL. I don't know, I like the Browns more and more as a wild card in the AFC, although at this point, it's looking like both wild cards will come from the AFC South.
Jaguars over Texans, 37-17
My Pick: Jaguars over Texans, 20-17
The Jaguars are a tough team and they play smart, conservative football. There, I said it. Also, this is a real disappointment for the Texans, who really ought to be worried right now. Their lack of playmakers is absolutely killing them, they just have no explosiveness. I'm not someone who likes to say this kind of thing, but you kinda wonder where this team might stand if they had . . .oh . . .say . . .Reggie Bush on their roster. What they really don't have, at all, is anyone on their offense who can make a big play, and until they get Andre Johnson back, they just won't be able to score quickly. I mean, they're in the same territory that the Ravens and Jets are in, where they just don't have any offensive players that scare anybody, and you have to think that, as well as Matt Schaub has played, if they had a couple of guys that could do something with the ball, they could really score some points. The Jaguars, by the way, are in the driver's seat for the AFC Wild Card big time right now, especially now that they seem to have gotten Maurice Jones-Drew going.
Eagles over Jets, 16-9
My Pick: Eagles over Jets, 31-21
The Eagles remain undefeated after bye-weeks under Andy Reid. Whoopdie-doo. The Jets stink something awful, and wasted a great game from Thomas Jones by calling BS plays that depend on Chad Pennington being able to tell his ass from a crater on the moon. I'm really not that big a Chad-hater, but he's got a noodle arm and this team doesn't scare anybody. Mangina laid another egg in this one, with that stupid quarterback sneak and then the awful fourth-and-goal fade pattern. Stupid, stupid coaching.
Panthers over Cardinals, 25-10
My Pick: Cardinals over Panthers, 24-17
The Panthers winning this game doesn't mean a damn thing. They stink and have no chance of winning a meaningful game. They know that, in the best case scenario, they can hope to maybe win a playoff game so they can crown their season a success, but does this team have any hope of contending for the championship? Hell no. The Cardinals are in big trouble if they have to depend on Tim Hasselbeck. He's not half as good as his brother, and did you see Matt on Sunday night? Yeah, his stats looked ok, but is that a contender's quarterback? Hell no. The running theme for the NFC is "hell no". Hell no, NFC!
Chargers over Raiders, 28-14
My Pick: Raiders over Chargers, 28-27
I'm quite happy the Chargers won this game. I'm one week closer to being able to pick them. LT is so effing good, I'm glad Norv Turner figured that out. What a terrible division the AFC West is, how sad that any of those teams will be in the playoffs. There are no good football teams in the NFL West. There's your friggin' East Coast bias, now shove it up your ass.
Patriots over Cowboys, 48-27
My Pick: Patriots over Cowboys, 34-24
You know what? Kudos to Bill Belichick for scoring a touchdown with 18 seconds left on the clock and running up the score. The Pats are easily 21 points better than the Cowboys, and they sent a very strong message to the phony "contenders" in the NFL: you pay an asshole tax for daring to let bookies narrow the spread against New England. The Cowboys played them tough for part of the game, and I give them credit, but you have to pay the tax. The asshole tax. If you're going against the Pats, don't dare suggest you're actually playing to win. Keep your head down and just try to stay close without pissing anyone off. I love it. The Patriots aren't going into Dallas to sneak away with a win; they're going to Dallas to make sure the scoreboard reflects how much better they are than the Cowboys, a "contending" team, and the fact that they took the time to make sure it was a blowout shows me how friggin' awesome they truly are. They are the team I love to hate to love. I effing LOVE the Patriots. I'm going to love every second of the Nov. 4 showdown with the Colts, even if the Colts don't win. Go Indy!
Saints over Seahawks, 28-17
My Pick: Seahawks over Saints, 31-28
Someone's got to say it: what the hell is wrong with Mike Holmgren? Did this guy forget how to coach or what? No clock management skills whatsoever, no play-calling skills whatsoever, just a train-wreck of a coaching job in this game by Holmgren and his staff. A fourth and 3 hand-off to your fullback after a time-out? Wasting two time-outs in the fourth quarter? Sending your punt unit out on fourth down, only to call them back mid-way through the play clock so you have to burn a time-out? Going for it on fourth down in your own territory, then not going for it on fourth down inside the five yard line? What the hell was he thinking? Also, Matt Hasselbeck is an over-rated stat-boy, a turd of a quarterback that will never ever win a Super Bowl, and Shawn Alexander is a horrid, washed-up tailback. Screw the Seahawks and both NFL divisions that represent the West. Also, it was good to see the Saints get a win, even though I didn't think Drew Brees looked all that good, and Reggie Bush still doesn't know how to run north and south. In the NFC, if you have 3 playmakers and your coach can accurately point in the direction of the endzone, you've got a leg up on everyone else. I can't say enough how bad the NFC is.
New York Giants over Atlanta, 31-10
My Pick: Atlanta over New York Giants, 21-14
The Falcons are close to becoming another team I refuse to pick week to week. They gave zero effort on Monday night, and that's a real shame. To be honest, Joey Harrington was again the only guy with a pulse against the Giants, and he'll likely be the next guy replaced in the starting lineup. Look, I know a pro quarterback can't keep his job on effort alone, but it's not like Harrington has been all that awful either, and he was a hell of a lot better than his stats last night. His receivers dropped 6 balls in that game before the MNF boys stopped counting or paying attention to the game at all, and he doesn't have much to work with out there even if those guys have glue on their hands. I've alluded to this before, and here it is again: I really think a better coach would have this Atlanta team playing loose, energetic football. It's perfectly reasonable that the Falcons would go out and lose a dozen or more games on talent alone; they just aren't very good. But to lose games because your players don't show up and don't give a damn, especially a Monday nighter this early in the season, is a real disgrace, and it's no wonder the stadium was an empty, echoing shell at the start of the fourth, even though it was only a two score game. The Falcons players had totally given up, and Petrino was standing on the sidelines with PTSD face. I know it's his first year at this level and he's had nothing but adversity since he crossed into Georgia, but you have to wonder if the level of play he's getting from his guys right now means that a whole roster of NFL caliber players is being poisoned and will need to be replaced. A great coach would have these guys competing, I insist.
Ok, a couple more notes on this weekend, then we shit on some coaches.
1. A full third of NFL teams are terrible, and here they are: Miami, St. Louis, Kansas City, Denver, Cincinnati, Atlanta, the Jets, Buffalo, Minnesota, New Orleans, San Francisco, and the Seahawks. Did I mention Denver? The really sad part is, these awful teams aren't offset by a third of NFL teams being great, or even very good. I count New England, Indianapolis, Dallas, and Pittsburgh as the teams in the NFL that have good records and are actually as good as their record, with an honorable mention to Jacksonville. It bears mentioning, however, that Jacksonville really hasn't beaten anyone either, but that is fast becoming a moot point; in this NFL, there's no one to beat. I'm really hoping a few more teams step up and prove themselves worthy. I'm thinking Cleveland could do it, the Skins, the Packers, the Giants, maybe the Chargers.
2. Quarterback injuries are quickly turning this into an asterisk season for many teams. The Cardinals now have a perfectly reasonable excuse for tanking down the stretch, as do the Panthers and Dolphins and Rams. On the other side of that equation, the 49ers and Bills are two teams that now have a chance of picking up some easy wins in their division. The 49ers, a playoff hopeful with a terrible offense, now have a leg up on the Cardinals in the NFC West, and in that division almost anything is possible. The Bills are now pretty undoubtedly the second best team in the AFC East, and once they get Losman back, they could make a move in their division with two games against Miami, another game against the Jets, and a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. The AFC is the better division, but really, how many wild-card contenders are there outside of the AFC South? I count one, and it's the Browns. Yes, I left the Ravens out of that discussion on purpose. They're the third best team in the AFC South, and that won't cut it.
3. More awful coaching this weekend, I'm sorry to say. Holmgren takes the cake for his utter, utter bed-crapping on Sunday night. That was a disaster. Mangina was terrible in his red-zone playcalling for the Jets, Cincinnati came back from their bye week and lost to the goddamn Chiefs, and Bobby Petrino got zero effort from his players at home on Monday night. That was a sad, sad display of going-through-the-motions football from the Falcons. On the other side of that coin, Brad Childress gets a nod for pounding the ball and playing to his team's strengths, even against the "stout" run defense of the Bears. Sean Payton threw the kitchen sink at Seattle and soundly outcoached Mike Holmgren. If you read that sentence without watching the game, you might think that means a lot more than it does, but Holmgren was laughably clueless. And though it pains me to say this, Del Rio and Coughlin both got great efforts from their teams and pounded middling opponents they ought to have beaten.
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Now, what say we ream some head coaches? I think maybe I'll revisit the coach rankings every week. I might retract a thing or two I said last week, I was a bit harsh.
NFC East
After week 6, the best head coach in the NFC East is Wade Phillips. As much as I want to give the nod to Joe Gibbs, I can't do it. Phillips' Cowboys may have gotten their asses handed to them at home by the Pats, but they played them tough for part of the game, and as I said last week, if they came out and competed like a real team against the Pats, we'd have the whole picture on the Cowboys and on Phillips, and I feel secure in saying that the Cowboys are a truly good team that are a notch below the Colts, two notches below the Pats, and several notches above everyone else except the Steelers. Such is that state of the NFL. It should be noted, also, the Wade Phillips has a .570 career regular season winning percentage, and that's not too shabby. Grade (for Sunday): B
Right now, and only right now, Tom Coughlin is in second place. Look, his team played extremely well on the road in Atlanta on Monday night, and there seems to be real chemistry on the Giants, against all odds. Do I think this team is still two losses away from blowing up? Yes, but perhaps not if those losses come 6 weeks apart, or after they've already secured a playoff spot. I also think this team won't do anything in the playoffs, but I'm less convinced now. Coughlin is sitting at .533 for his career in the regular season, and his team is playing well. I hate him, but I can't be the asshole who shits on him despite all evidence to the contrary.
Grade: B+
In one Redskins fan's bitter, bitter opinion, Joe Gibbs and his staff shat themselves on Sunday. For the second game in three weeks, they took a lead into halftime and came out looking stupid, weak, disorganized, and overly conservative. I'd like to blame execution, like all the other asshole D.C. sports fans, but I saw more than bad execution on Sunday. I saw a Redskins team that didn't benefit from the same kind of inept opponent they had the previous week, that wasn't focused or disciplined, a team that doesn't know how to put an opponent away without said opponent shooting themselves in the foot, and damn it, that's coaching! Get it together or get your saddle ready, Joe!
Grade: C-
Andy Reid is still a hell of a coach, his team is 9-0 coming off of a bye week, his career win percentage in the regular season is a whopping .617, second only to Gibbs (.624) in the NFC East, and the Eagles are still a dangerous team. They could have done a lot more against the terrible Jets on Sunday, especially off a bye week, but they got the win on the road and they're getting healthy on offense.
Grade: B-
NFC North
Not much changed this weekend in the NFC North. Mike McCarthy is still the class of this division, even though his team looked pretty weak against a Redskins team that did everything they could to make sure the Packers won the game. His team is 5-1 and his career number is .591, a terrific start for a coach who was supposed to be taking the reigns of a rebuilding effort. They found a way to win and are looking great in a conference that is there for the taking.
Grade: B
Lovie Smith is still the next best thing in this division, and if you don't think so, you don't know shit. The Bears are secretly one of the least talented teams in the NFL, and with another coach, they'd be bottom feeders. Seriously, they have no more talent that the Falcons WITHOUT Michael Vick, but they play their asses off and expect to win. Damn it, this team showed heart and determination in their loss to the Vikings, and Smith has compiled a .574 in his short stay with Chicago.
Grade: B-
Frankly, I'd forgotten all about the Lions this week, but Rod Marinelli is still third in the North. The Lions have been as dysfunctional a franchise as any, but he has them competing and expecting to win. This was a big bye week for them, coming off of a crushing loss and having their offense exposed. With Kevin Jones healthy and two weeks to prepare, we'll learn a lot about the Lions next Sunday. Marinelli is sitting on a pretty pathetic .286 regular season win percentage, but I think it's obvious he's a better coach than that.
Grade: N/A
Hey, whaddya know, Brad Childress pulled his head part-way out of his ass on Sunday, electing to run the damn ball and play to the strengths of his team. I don't know about giving more carries to Chester Taylor than the unstoppable Adrian Peterson, but frankly, I like it when coaches do things that seem counter-intuitive to me and pull it off. Peterson had the gas in the tank to rip off a monster kick return towards the end of regulation that put the Vikings in position to win. Kick ass, Brad. You came back from a bye week with a winning strategy in a division game you needed. Now maybe you could do something about that .381 . . .
Grade: B+
NFC South
It's pretty obvious that Jon Gruden is still the best in the NFC South, and I'm still glad to say it. Another poor performance on Sunday, but his Bucs were taking on a great coach in Jeff Fisher and a tough, athletic, young Titans team. With Delhomme and Carr out in Carolina, the Falcons a mess, and very little to worry about from the Saints, the Bucs are looking great for the playoffs.
Grade: B+
It makes me very happy to have an excuse to give some props to John Fox, he of the .558 regular season winning percentage and 5-2 playoff record, whose Panthers got a big win despite having to start Vinny Testaverde after only a week with the team. To be clear, this team has no chance of winning anything meaningful this season, but the folks in Carolina will be glad to have a team to root for in the post-season, and who knows, maybe the Panthers can get there. There's no greater testament to a coach's ability than how their team performs after big injuries to key players, and his Panthers ran away from the Cardinals on Sunday.
Grade: A
It was good to see the Saints get a win, and disturbing as hell to watch the Seahawks flail around like assholes. Sean Payton has pretty clearly adopted the attitude that in order to turn the season around for his Saints, they'll need to remove all stops in their offense. A reverse in the red-zone? Why the hell not. Putting the ball in Reggie Bush's hands on your first six offensive plays? Sure. I think Payton and the Saints are looking up at the NFC and realizing that pretty much anything is possible and they still have something to play for, and their performance on Sunday reflected that.
Grade: B+
Boy did the Falcons look awful on Monday night. A zero-effort second half, an empty stadium, a thousand-yard stare from Bobby Petrino, and very little reason to hope this team will turn things around. I feel pretty strongly about the poor, poor effort of the Falcons players in that game, and if I were a Falcons fan, I'd be pretty worried about the future of my franchise. I hope Petrino works out, but I don't think he has an effing clue, I think he's getting his ass kicked by the NFL. For the umpteenth time, I don't believe college head coaches can make the leap.
Grade: D
NFC West
Boy, did any NFC West coaches have a friggin' clue on Sunday? My god. Ken Wisenhunt is still on top, but boy did his team mail it in after Kurt Warner went down. The Cardinals are in bad shape with Tim Hasselbeck. Take it from a Skins fan, Hasselbeck is not an NFL quarterback. If Wisenhunt was looking for a reason to pound the ball relentlessly, he just got it. Luckily, he has the receiving corps to turn limited opportunities into big plays. Yikes.
Grade: C
Mike Nolan gets to stay in second place because his team didn't play on Sunday, but they might have improved their playoff position dramatically in the bye week. This team needs to pull it together enough to take down their awful division, it's basically theirs for the losing at this point. Coming off the bye, Nolan can show his stuff and will hopefully have a healthy offense to work with. With the way the NFC West has been crushed by injuries, Nolan can really improve on his .351 career regular season mark.
Grade: N/A
I guess I have to keep Mike Holmgren third, but I'm not sure anyone has coached a worse game all season than he did on Sunday. To be clear, I'm quite sure Holmgren is a quality head coach, as his career .610 resoundingly suggests, but that game against the Saints was an absolute comedy of bad coaching. His team was just awful, especially in the whole "thinking" part of the game. Seattle fans are probably feeling pretty nauseated right now. That was horrible.
Grade: F
Scott Linehan . . .jeez. I don't have much to say about him. The Rams are terrible, they played terribly, they very well might go winless. The 2007 Patriots are getting to the point where it will be surprising if anyone but the Colts can take them down, and to the same degree the 2007 Rams are getting to the point where it will be a shocker if they beat anybody. That's a shame. I don't know what to say for Linehan, except that I trust that he could be a good head coach and would like to give him the benefit of the doubt, but it would be perfectly understandable if the Rams organization dumped everything having to do with this team, including the guy in charge.
Grade: D-
AFC East
Bill Belichick is still the best, now more than ever. He's actively making a villain out of himself, but I love the way they pound their opponents and his team is quickly becoming invincible. I never root for the favorite, but I like this team, and even though I'll probably root against them in every game from here on out, that's really more out of practice and principle than anything else. Belichick only has a .591 career regular season win percentage, which seems low for a guy that has dominated the league for the past several years. His Browns days weren't so hot.
Grade: A+
Though his team didn't play, I still like Dick Jauron better than the other guys in this division, and like the 49ers, the Bills may have picked up a little hope on their bye. They played the Cowboys tougher than hell, their division has been destroyed by injuries, bad play and bad coaching, they may be getting a little healthier, and the AFC Wild Card looks up for grabs. The Bills are still a long shot, but they play tough and smart and have a couple of playmakers. I think Jauron is better than his .415 win percentage, but the folks in Buffalo probably aren't so sure. Here's hoping his Bills keep hangin' in there.
Grade: N/A
I don't know, I'm not sure it isn't a toss up between Eric "Mangina" Mangini and Cam Cameron, and that's saying something, considering that Cameron hasn't won a game as a head coach. Mangini's Jets just can't find a way to win, they have a quarterback controversy that includes Kellen Clemens (that can't be good), and their play-calling in the red-zone was a mess.
The thing is, I was a Mangini fan last year and in truth I'd like him to work out as the head coach of the Jets. But I won't bullshit for him, he's coached like a real turd this year. He's sitting at .500 and looking down, down, down.
Grade: D+
Cam Cameron is the worst coach in the AFC East, and it may not stop there. It's probably unfair to completely write this guy off as a head coach at this point, his woeful Dolphins did play the Browns pretty tough behind Cleo Lemon at quarterback, he's gotten brilliant play from his tailback, and they don't look like the worst team in the NFL at the moment, if only because the Rams are still allowed to suit up on Sundays. There's not much else to say about Cameron, he hasn't won a game as a head coach, probably will at some point, but the fact that there's a little doubt there is noteworthy.
Grade: C
AFC North
Why remove Mike Tomlin from his spot atop the AFC North? The two other preseason favorites in his division seem to be in decline while his Steelers are looking like a real contender. I'll be really interested to see what Pittsburgh looks like coming off of a bye week. I hope to have my suspicion that Tomlin is a terrific head coach confirmed by a brilliant effort.
Grade: N/A
There is very little doubt that Romeo Crennell is next on this list, especially now that the Browns are officially "taking care of business". They were supposed to beat the Dolphins, and though they made it look tougher than they needed to, they got the win, and Crennell was right to say it shows real progress in Cleveland. His offense is humming right now, and if they can get consistently average performances from their defense, they could score an improbable wild-card spot and finish second in their somewhat tough division.
Grade: B
Brian Billick's Ravens beat a team they were supposed to beat, but I don't know how good they can feel about it. I mean, their defense was dominant, but I really doubt Baltimore fans are too excited to see their offense back-sliding to their "Super Bowl" form. This is not the NFL of 1998, the Ravens will not get past the giants in their conference with such an awful offense. Billick has had a lot of time in Baltimore to assemble a capable unit, I find it pretty ominous that they're still rolling out a JV unit. I maintain that Billick's teams will never be further than a year away from competing for a playoff spot, and his .590 career regular season record is rather impressive.
Grade: C+
A team can hardly do worse coming off of a bye week than to lose to the Kansas City Chiefs. What the hell is Marvin Lewis doing? It's definitely panic time in Cincinnati, where their offense was nearly as bad as their defense, and they don't seem to have a clue how to turn it around. The loss of Rudi Johnson is clearly hurting this team, but I have almost no faith left in Marvin Lewis as a head coach, and I'd bet the Bengals front office is feeling the same way about a coach with a .522 win percentage for his career.
Grade: D
AFC South
Tony Dungy might be the best coach in the NFL. I'm just saying. His career mark is .657, the best among active head coaches by a wide margin. Yes, Belichick has won more Super Bowls, but Dungy might very well close the gap this season, while his Colts might be the most underrated 5-0 team in NFL history. Dungy was hired in Indianapolis to put a contending team over the top and he's done just that.
Grade: N/A
Jeff Fisher is the second best coach in this division, but that doesn't mean I think he's any less a coach than he was last week. I've had some time to reflect, and the fact is Dungy is one of the great head coaches in NFL history, he can't possibly be second best in his division, not when he's coaching an undefeated defending Super Bowl champion. The Titans didn't play their best on Sunday in Tampa Bay, but with a strikingly thin roster and a young team with young leadership, the Titans are a playoff team, and Fisher is a hell of a coach.
Grade: C+
God damned son of a bitch asshole Jack Del Rio. Fuck him. His team is kicking ass. His players are playing smart, determined football. They're beating all the teams they're supposed to beat, and look like a mortal lock to make the post-season, where they will be a scary opponent for anyone, ANYONE. Do the folks in Jacksonville trust that this guy won't undercut his team's success with some disloyal bullshit, or a poorly conceived motivational tactic? No, and neither do I. Has he proven that he can field a consistent team? No. Did he hose his former franchise quarterback? Yes, and that makes him an asshole.
Grade: A
The Texans had their season handed to them this weekend by the Jaguars. They don't have the playmakers to contend, and they're still the little kid in their division. That said, Gary Kubiak is a hell of a coach, and though they took a beating, they still looked like a professional team with pieces to build around. I don't see them in the playoffs, but they play in the toughest division in sports.
Grade: B-
AFC West
Still the turd of divisions in the NFL, I'm sticking with Lane Kiffin, and if I had to build a team today and had only AFC West coaches to choose from, it would be an easy decision, and I'd be pretty confident in the direction of my team. The Raiders were undone by their lack of talent on Sunday, and that will happen. There's no doubt the Chargers are a more gifted team, but give these Raiders a few years with Kiffin and they'll be a playoff team.
Grade: C+
You know what? I'm going to eat a little shit from last week, and I deserve it. Mike Shanahan is not somebody I'd want coaching the Skins, but you could do a lot worse than someone with a career .613 regular season win percentage and two Super Bowl victories, and the fact that I'm tossing this guy under a bus in the middle of a weak season with a second year QB and a team in flux is baloney. I'm not saying I love the guy, but he's done more than enough as an NFL head coach to deserve a few terrible seasons worth of slack.
Grade: N/A
Norv Turner is still in third place, but he's still not a great head coach, as his .418 career record indicates. He's quite a poor head coach, but I'm quietly hoping he'll figure it all out. I still won't pick his team to win until they get back to .500, but I do think they'll win the AFC West. I just like Norv, I think he's a good guy.
Grade: B
Herm Edwards is still the stinking rotten turd of NFL head coaches, and there's no way around it. So his team beat the imploding Bengals, big effing deal. Herm Edwards is not a coach that can take his team to the mountain top, it's that simple. The Chiefs stink, even if they make the playoffs they stink, and Herm is a lousy coach. I don't think he's a bad guy, just a bad football coach.
Grade: B
There you have it. Week 7 picks are coming later in the week. I traded Thomas Jones for Frank Gore. I now have only two players left on my team that haven't gone through their bye week, I have cash in the bank, two elite runners, and a good chance of digging my way out of the cellar. I went 7-6 with my picks in Week 6, so we may see another trip down "Home Team" lane this week.
Vikings over Bears, 34-31
My Pick: Bears over Vikings, 16-6
Obviously, the story of this game was Adrian Peterson, who is officially The Man. I'm still a bit puzzled that Chester Taylor carried the ball more, but who am I to say Brad Childress hasn't hit on something there? The fact that Peterson pulled off three monster touchdown runs and had enough gas in the tank to rip off a 53 yard kickoff return that essentially won the game for the Vikings has to be due, somewhat, to the fact that he split carries with Taylor, who was also effective against a struggling Bears defense. Even though they lost, I'd like to give a little credit to Lovie Smith, whose team continued to fight and make plays. This is supposed to be a team that stuffs the run and struggles to score, and against the Vikings, that ought to be the story of the game. They couldn't stop the run, and against a tough Minnesota defense, they stayed in the game and put 31 points on the board. That's a hell of an offensive game for the Bears. I expect the Bears to hang tough in every game this season, finish well below .500, and the moron sports media to call for Lovie's head. What a shame.
Browns over Dolphins, 41-31
My Pick: Browns over Dolphins, 24-13
Derek Anderson is a good quarterback, and he's doing everything he can to keep Brady Quinn on the bench. This may not be the Miami defense of yester-year, but when you put up 41 points on an NFL defense and toss 3 touchdowns, you can play some quarterback, and at .500 with a legitimate chance at the wild card in the AFC, you'd have to think the Browns would be forcing it if they stick Quinn in there under any circumstance other than a total meltdown. It's a shame that money plays such a key roll in NFL operations. Eventually, Quinn HAS to be the guy in Cleveland, the same way Palmer had to be the guy in Cincinnati after Kitna had started to put things together there; the same way Rivers had to be the guy in San Diego after a brilliant year from Drew Brees. But Anderson is a young quarterback that has a lot of chemistry with his options in Cleveland, and it'll be a shame when they yank him. It's hard to be a successful quarterback on your second team in the NFL. Maybe he can pull a Matt Schaub. Anyway, enough about that. Cleo Lemon played a respectable game: good for him. Cam Cameron went friggin' emo in the post-game press conference, expressing his pity for Miami's fans, former players, and owner. I know, instead of apologizing for fielding a joke of a team, how about apologizing for banking the immediate future of the franchise on 37 year old Trent Green, coming off of a major concussion, with no one behind him but Cleo Lemon and rookie John Beck? Nice job, Cam.
Packers over Redskins, 17-14
My Pick: Redskins over Packers, 27-17
I don't have a whole lot to say about this one, except that it showed, more than anything, that neither team is as good as their record entering the game. For the second week in a row, the Redskins broadcast the blueprint for shutting down the strong passing attack of a successful NFC opponent. For the second time in three weeks, they failed to play strong or score in the second half of a game they lead at halftime. The Packers showed that their defense isn't all that strong, that their passing attack isn't all that dangerous, that their running game actually is that bad, and the Brett Favre is still capable of killing his team. To me, it's a real shame that what ought to have been a chance for a surging upstart NFC contender to emerge as a superior, dangerous team ended up as an opportunity for two teams to reveal that they aren't actually very good at all. Hopefully BOTH teams will rebound, but frankly, I see both teams getting killed by the Cowboys. Oh, and I think the Skins were again undone by poor coaching. Sorry, Joe. Also on the coaching front, Joe Bugel is really earning that paycheck these days. If the Redskins have any more injuries on their offensive line, they might need old Joe to strap on a helmet. One more quick note here: I was avoiding thinking this, let alone actually commenting on it, but the friggin' Skins haven't beaten anyone. They barely put down the atrocious Dolphins, they buried a victory in Philly, they choked against the now 4-2 Giants, they accidentally put up 34 on Detroit, and then they choked against the now 5-1 Packers. They need a legitimate win, and they need to perform consistently, before I will consider them a serious contender in the awful NFC. I love the Redskins, but I'm getting a little tired of not knowing which Redskins team will show up each Sunday.
Chiefs over Bengals, 27-20
My Pick: Bengals over Chiefs, 30-10
Pretty depressing stuff, here. Maybe the Kansas City fans don't realize it, maybe their coaches and players don't get it, but every game they win is a wasted effort. Hell, even if they make the playoffs, it's a waste of time and energy. This team is going nowhere, and I officially hate their guts. Finally, at last, I have discovered what Herm Edwards is as a head coach: Herm is the guy you bring in to tear apart your team, chase away all your stars, take the Super Bowl off the table, and lower expectations across the board. Then, when he finally has a team full of nobodies, with no playmakers and no real chance of winning anything meaningful, he gets about 9 or 10 max-effort games against more talented teams every year, and everyone pats him on the back for getting so much out of so little. By the way, did everyone see his pre-game comments about preparing his team? I can't quote him exactly, but he basically said he told his men that he's done all he can do for them to win the game, he can't make a tackle, he can't catch a pass, all he can do is prepare them in the week and then they have to go out and win the game. That's exactly what I said about Herm Edwards, he doesn't coach on gameday. I don't know what to say to that, but if you think that's what you want in a head-coach, I feel sorry for you. Also, man those Bengals stink. They're in bad, bad shape right now, and Marvin is very close to losing his job.
Bucs over Titans, 13-10
My Pick: Bucs over Titans, 21-20
The Madden curse strikes again! You know, seriously, I'm getting really sick of NFL teams that only do enough to win, and even then only in regular season games. Where are all the good teams in the NFL? The NFC is a friggin' joke. I still like the Bucs, but come ON! You went a half against the Titans, at home, with Vince Young on the bench, and you won by only 3 points. I like Jeff Fisher and I think he's a great coach (see, I told you I'd say that every week), but there's no excuse for barely pulling this one off. I'm really sick of this. I want a few NFC teams to step up and play like serious contenders, this whole thing is really depressing. I don't really fault the Titans for only putting 10 points on the board, considering they were in Tampa and lost their franchise player to a quadriceps injury, but I'm a little worried that they actually moved the ball just as well, if not better, with Kerry Collins in the game. Eh, not to worry, Fisher'll figure it out.
Ravens over Rams, 22-3
My Pick: Ravens over Rams, 13-10
Except for the Rams not scoring a touchdown and Gus Frerotte playing like an absolute joke, I had this one nailed. The Ravens are a terrible offensive team! The only scored one touchdown in this game, and you have to think that's a major disappointment for Baltimore, against probably the weakest team in the NFL. I don't know, I like the Browns more and more as a wild card in the AFC, although at this point, it's looking like both wild cards will come from the AFC South.
Jaguars over Texans, 37-17
My Pick: Jaguars over Texans, 20-17
The Jaguars are a tough team and they play smart, conservative football. There, I said it. Also, this is a real disappointment for the Texans, who really ought to be worried right now. Their lack of playmakers is absolutely killing them, they just have no explosiveness. I'm not someone who likes to say this kind of thing, but you kinda wonder where this team might stand if they had . . .oh . . .say . . .Reggie Bush on their roster. What they really don't have, at all, is anyone on their offense who can make a big play, and until they get Andre Johnson back, they just won't be able to score quickly. I mean, they're in the same territory that the Ravens and Jets are in, where they just don't have any offensive players that scare anybody, and you have to think that, as well as Matt Schaub has played, if they had a couple of guys that could do something with the ball, they could really score some points. The Jaguars, by the way, are in the driver's seat for the AFC Wild Card big time right now, especially now that they seem to have gotten Maurice Jones-Drew going.
Eagles over Jets, 16-9
My Pick: Eagles over Jets, 31-21
The Eagles remain undefeated after bye-weeks under Andy Reid. Whoopdie-doo. The Jets stink something awful, and wasted a great game from Thomas Jones by calling BS plays that depend on Chad Pennington being able to tell his ass from a crater on the moon. I'm really not that big a Chad-hater, but he's got a noodle arm and this team doesn't scare anybody. Mangina laid another egg in this one, with that stupid quarterback sneak and then the awful fourth-and-goal fade pattern. Stupid, stupid coaching.
Panthers over Cardinals, 25-10
My Pick: Cardinals over Panthers, 24-17
The Panthers winning this game doesn't mean a damn thing. They stink and have no chance of winning a meaningful game. They know that, in the best case scenario, they can hope to maybe win a playoff game so they can crown their season a success, but does this team have any hope of contending for the championship? Hell no. The Cardinals are in big trouble if they have to depend on Tim Hasselbeck. He's not half as good as his brother, and did you see Matt on Sunday night? Yeah, his stats looked ok, but is that a contender's quarterback? Hell no. The running theme for the NFC is "hell no". Hell no, NFC!
Chargers over Raiders, 28-14
My Pick: Raiders over Chargers, 28-27
I'm quite happy the Chargers won this game. I'm one week closer to being able to pick them. LT is so effing good, I'm glad Norv Turner figured that out. What a terrible division the AFC West is, how sad that any of those teams will be in the playoffs. There are no good football teams in the NFL West. There's your friggin' East Coast bias, now shove it up your ass.
Patriots over Cowboys, 48-27
My Pick: Patriots over Cowboys, 34-24
You know what? Kudos to Bill Belichick for scoring a touchdown with 18 seconds left on the clock and running up the score. The Pats are easily 21 points better than the Cowboys, and they sent a very strong message to the phony "contenders" in the NFL: you pay an asshole tax for daring to let bookies narrow the spread against New England. The Cowboys played them tough for part of the game, and I give them credit, but you have to pay the tax. The asshole tax. If you're going against the Pats, don't dare suggest you're actually playing to win. Keep your head down and just try to stay close without pissing anyone off. I love it. The Patriots aren't going into Dallas to sneak away with a win; they're going to Dallas to make sure the scoreboard reflects how much better they are than the Cowboys, a "contending" team, and the fact that they took the time to make sure it was a blowout shows me how friggin' awesome they truly are. They are the team I love to hate to love. I effing LOVE the Patriots. I'm going to love every second of the Nov. 4 showdown with the Colts, even if the Colts don't win. Go Indy!
Saints over Seahawks, 28-17
My Pick: Seahawks over Saints, 31-28
Someone's got to say it: what the hell is wrong with Mike Holmgren? Did this guy forget how to coach or what? No clock management skills whatsoever, no play-calling skills whatsoever, just a train-wreck of a coaching job in this game by Holmgren and his staff. A fourth and 3 hand-off to your fullback after a time-out? Wasting two time-outs in the fourth quarter? Sending your punt unit out on fourth down, only to call them back mid-way through the play clock so you have to burn a time-out? Going for it on fourth down in your own territory, then not going for it on fourth down inside the five yard line? What the hell was he thinking? Also, Matt Hasselbeck is an over-rated stat-boy, a turd of a quarterback that will never ever win a Super Bowl, and Shawn Alexander is a horrid, washed-up tailback. Screw the Seahawks and both NFL divisions that represent the West. Also, it was good to see the Saints get a win, even though I didn't think Drew Brees looked all that good, and Reggie Bush still doesn't know how to run north and south. In the NFC, if you have 3 playmakers and your coach can accurately point in the direction of the endzone, you've got a leg up on everyone else. I can't say enough how bad the NFC is.
New York Giants over Atlanta, 31-10
My Pick: Atlanta over New York Giants, 21-14
The Falcons are close to becoming another team I refuse to pick week to week. They gave zero effort on Monday night, and that's a real shame. To be honest, Joey Harrington was again the only guy with a pulse against the Giants, and he'll likely be the next guy replaced in the starting lineup. Look, I know a pro quarterback can't keep his job on effort alone, but it's not like Harrington has been all that awful either, and he was a hell of a lot better than his stats last night. His receivers dropped 6 balls in that game before the MNF boys stopped counting or paying attention to the game at all, and he doesn't have much to work with out there even if those guys have glue on their hands. I've alluded to this before, and here it is again: I really think a better coach would have this Atlanta team playing loose, energetic football. It's perfectly reasonable that the Falcons would go out and lose a dozen or more games on talent alone; they just aren't very good. But to lose games because your players don't show up and don't give a damn, especially a Monday nighter this early in the season, is a real disgrace, and it's no wonder the stadium was an empty, echoing shell at the start of the fourth, even though it was only a two score game. The Falcons players had totally given up, and Petrino was standing on the sidelines with PTSD face. I know it's his first year at this level and he's had nothing but adversity since he crossed into Georgia, but you have to wonder if the level of play he's getting from his guys right now means that a whole roster of NFL caliber players is being poisoned and will need to be replaced. A great coach would have these guys competing, I insist.
Ok, a couple more notes on this weekend, then we shit on some coaches.
1. A full third of NFL teams are terrible, and here they are: Miami, St. Louis, Kansas City, Denver, Cincinnati, Atlanta, the Jets, Buffalo, Minnesota, New Orleans, San Francisco, and the Seahawks. Did I mention Denver? The really sad part is, these awful teams aren't offset by a third of NFL teams being great, or even very good. I count New England, Indianapolis, Dallas, and Pittsburgh as the teams in the NFL that have good records and are actually as good as their record, with an honorable mention to Jacksonville. It bears mentioning, however, that Jacksonville really hasn't beaten anyone either, but that is fast becoming a moot point; in this NFL, there's no one to beat. I'm really hoping a few more teams step up and prove themselves worthy. I'm thinking Cleveland could do it, the Skins, the Packers, the Giants, maybe the Chargers.
2. Quarterback injuries are quickly turning this into an asterisk season for many teams. The Cardinals now have a perfectly reasonable excuse for tanking down the stretch, as do the Panthers and Dolphins and Rams. On the other side of that equation, the 49ers and Bills are two teams that now have a chance of picking up some easy wins in their division. The 49ers, a playoff hopeful with a terrible offense, now have a leg up on the Cardinals in the NFC West, and in that division almost anything is possible. The Bills are now pretty undoubtedly the second best team in the AFC East, and once they get Losman back, they could make a move in their division with two games against Miami, another game against the Jets, and a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. The AFC is the better division, but really, how many wild-card contenders are there outside of the AFC South? I count one, and it's the Browns. Yes, I left the Ravens out of that discussion on purpose. They're the third best team in the AFC South, and that won't cut it.
3. More awful coaching this weekend, I'm sorry to say. Holmgren takes the cake for his utter, utter bed-crapping on Sunday night. That was a disaster. Mangina was terrible in his red-zone playcalling for the Jets, Cincinnati came back from their bye week and lost to the goddamn Chiefs, and Bobby Petrino got zero effort from his players at home on Monday night. That was a sad, sad display of going-through-the-motions football from the Falcons. On the other side of that coin, Brad Childress gets a nod for pounding the ball and playing to his team's strengths, even against the "stout" run defense of the Bears. Sean Payton threw the kitchen sink at Seattle and soundly outcoached Mike Holmgren. If you read that sentence without watching the game, you might think that means a lot more than it does, but Holmgren was laughably clueless. And though it pains me to say this, Del Rio and Coughlin both got great efforts from their teams and pounded middling opponents they ought to have beaten.
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Now, what say we ream some head coaches? I think maybe I'll revisit the coach rankings every week. I might retract a thing or two I said last week, I was a bit harsh.
NFC East
After week 6, the best head coach in the NFC East is Wade Phillips. As much as I want to give the nod to Joe Gibbs, I can't do it. Phillips' Cowboys may have gotten their asses handed to them at home by the Pats, but they played them tough for part of the game, and as I said last week, if they came out and competed like a real team against the Pats, we'd have the whole picture on the Cowboys and on Phillips, and I feel secure in saying that the Cowboys are a truly good team that are a notch below the Colts, two notches below the Pats, and several notches above everyone else except the Steelers. Such is that state of the NFL. It should be noted, also, the Wade Phillips has a .570 career regular season winning percentage, and that's not too shabby. Grade (for Sunday): B
Right now, and only right now, Tom Coughlin is in second place. Look, his team played extremely well on the road in Atlanta on Monday night, and there seems to be real chemistry on the Giants, against all odds. Do I think this team is still two losses away from blowing up? Yes, but perhaps not if those losses come 6 weeks apart, or after they've already secured a playoff spot. I also think this team won't do anything in the playoffs, but I'm less convinced now. Coughlin is sitting at .533 for his career in the regular season, and his team is playing well. I hate him, but I can't be the asshole who shits on him despite all evidence to the contrary.
Grade: B+
In one Redskins fan's bitter, bitter opinion, Joe Gibbs and his staff shat themselves on Sunday. For the second game in three weeks, they took a lead into halftime and came out looking stupid, weak, disorganized, and overly conservative. I'd like to blame execution, like all the other asshole D.C. sports fans, but I saw more than bad execution on Sunday. I saw a Redskins team that didn't benefit from the same kind of inept opponent they had the previous week, that wasn't focused or disciplined, a team that doesn't know how to put an opponent away without said opponent shooting themselves in the foot, and damn it, that's coaching! Get it together or get your saddle ready, Joe!
Grade: C-
Andy Reid is still a hell of a coach, his team is 9-0 coming off of a bye week, his career win percentage in the regular season is a whopping .617, second only to Gibbs (.624) in the NFC East, and the Eagles are still a dangerous team. They could have done a lot more against the terrible Jets on Sunday, especially off a bye week, but they got the win on the road and they're getting healthy on offense.
Grade: B-
NFC North
Not much changed this weekend in the NFC North. Mike McCarthy is still the class of this division, even though his team looked pretty weak against a Redskins team that did everything they could to make sure the Packers won the game. His team is 5-1 and his career number is .591, a terrific start for a coach who was supposed to be taking the reigns of a rebuilding effort. They found a way to win and are looking great in a conference that is there for the taking.
Grade: B
Lovie Smith is still the next best thing in this division, and if you don't think so, you don't know shit. The Bears are secretly one of the least talented teams in the NFL, and with another coach, they'd be bottom feeders. Seriously, they have no more talent that the Falcons WITHOUT Michael Vick, but they play their asses off and expect to win. Damn it, this team showed heart and determination in their loss to the Vikings, and Smith has compiled a .574 in his short stay with Chicago.
Grade: B-
Frankly, I'd forgotten all about the Lions this week, but Rod Marinelli is still third in the North. The Lions have been as dysfunctional a franchise as any, but he has them competing and expecting to win. This was a big bye week for them, coming off of a crushing loss and having their offense exposed. With Kevin Jones healthy and two weeks to prepare, we'll learn a lot about the Lions next Sunday. Marinelli is sitting on a pretty pathetic .286 regular season win percentage, but I think it's obvious he's a better coach than that.
Grade: N/A
Hey, whaddya know, Brad Childress pulled his head part-way out of his ass on Sunday, electing to run the damn ball and play to the strengths of his team. I don't know about giving more carries to Chester Taylor than the unstoppable Adrian Peterson, but frankly, I like it when coaches do things that seem counter-intuitive to me and pull it off. Peterson had the gas in the tank to rip off a monster kick return towards the end of regulation that put the Vikings in position to win. Kick ass, Brad. You came back from a bye week with a winning strategy in a division game you needed. Now maybe you could do something about that .381 . . .
Grade: B+
NFC South
It's pretty obvious that Jon Gruden is still the best in the NFC South, and I'm still glad to say it. Another poor performance on Sunday, but his Bucs were taking on a great coach in Jeff Fisher and a tough, athletic, young Titans team. With Delhomme and Carr out in Carolina, the Falcons a mess, and very little to worry about from the Saints, the Bucs are looking great for the playoffs.
Grade: B+
It makes me very happy to have an excuse to give some props to John Fox, he of the .558 regular season winning percentage and 5-2 playoff record, whose Panthers got a big win despite having to start Vinny Testaverde after only a week with the team. To be clear, this team has no chance of winning anything meaningful this season, but the folks in Carolina will be glad to have a team to root for in the post-season, and who knows, maybe the Panthers can get there. There's no greater testament to a coach's ability than how their team performs after big injuries to key players, and his Panthers ran away from the Cardinals on Sunday.
Grade: A
It was good to see the Saints get a win, and disturbing as hell to watch the Seahawks flail around like assholes. Sean Payton has pretty clearly adopted the attitude that in order to turn the season around for his Saints, they'll need to remove all stops in their offense. A reverse in the red-zone? Why the hell not. Putting the ball in Reggie Bush's hands on your first six offensive plays? Sure. I think Payton and the Saints are looking up at the NFC and realizing that pretty much anything is possible and they still have something to play for, and their performance on Sunday reflected that.
Grade: B+
Boy did the Falcons look awful on Monday night. A zero-effort second half, an empty stadium, a thousand-yard stare from Bobby Petrino, and very little reason to hope this team will turn things around. I feel pretty strongly about the poor, poor effort of the Falcons players in that game, and if I were a Falcons fan, I'd be pretty worried about the future of my franchise. I hope Petrino works out, but I don't think he has an effing clue, I think he's getting his ass kicked by the NFL. For the umpteenth time, I don't believe college head coaches can make the leap.
Grade: D
NFC West
Boy, did any NFC West coaches have a friggin' clue on Sunday? My god. Ken Wisenhunt is still on top, but boy did his team mail it in after Kurt Warner went down. The Cardinals are in bad shape with Tim Hasselbeck. Take it from a Skins fan, Hasselbeck is not an NFL quarterback. If Wisenhunt was looking for a reason to pound the ball relentlessly, he just got it. Luckily, he has the receiving corps to turn limited opportunities into big plays. Yikes.
Grade: C
Mike Nolan gets to stay in second place because his team didn't play on Sunday, but they might have improved their playoff position dramatically in the bye week. This team needs to pull it together enough to take down their awful division, it's basically theirs for the losing at this point. Coming off the bye, Nolan can show his stuff and will hopefully have a healthy offense to work with. With the way the NFC West has been crushed by injuries, Nolan can really improve on his .351 career regular season mark.
Grade: N/A
I guess I have to keep Mike Holmgren third, but I'm not sure anyone has coached a worse game all season than he did on Sunday. To be clear, I'm quite sure Holmgren is a quality head coach, as his career .610 resoundingly suggests, but that game against the Saints was an absolute comedy of bad coaching. His team was just awful, especially in the whole "thinking" part of the game. Seattle fans are probably feeling pretty nauseated right now. That was horrible.
Grade: F
Scott Linehan . . .jeez. I don't have much to say about him. The Rams are terrible, they played terribly, they very well might go winless. The 2007 Patriots are getting to the point where it will be surprising if anyone but the Colts can take them down, and to the same degree the 2007 Rams are getting to the point where it will be a shocker if they beat anybody. That's a shame. I don't know what to say for Linehan, except that I trust that he could be a good head coach and would like to give him the benefit of the doubt, but it would be perfectly understandable if the Rams organization dumped everything having to do with this team, including the guy in charge.
Grade: D-
AFC East
Bill Belichick is still the best, now more than ever. He's actively making a villain out of himself, but I love the way they pound their opponents and his team is quickly becoming invincible. I never root for the favorite, but I like this team, and even though I'll probably root against them in every game from here on out, that's really more out of practice and principle than anything else. Belichick only has a .591 career regular season win percentage, which seems low for a guy that has dominated the league for the past several years. His Browns days weren't so hot.
Grade: A+
Though his team didn't play, I still like Dick Jauron better than the other guys in this division, and like the 49ers, the Bills may have picked up a little hope on their bye. They played the Cowboys tougher than hell, their division has been destroyed by injuries, bad play and bad coaching, they may be getting a little healthier, and the AFC Wild Card looks up for grabs. The Bills are still a long shot, but they play tough and smart and have a couple of playmakers. I think Jauron is better than his .415 win percentage, but the folks in Buffalo probably aren't so sure. Here's hoping his Bills keep hangin' in there.
Grade: N/A
I don't know, I'm not sure it isn't a toss up between Eric "Mangina" Mangini and Cam Cameron, and that's saying something, considering that Cameron hasn't won a game as a head coach. Mangini's Jets just can't find a way to win, they have a quarterback controversy that includes Kellen Clemens (that can't be good), and their play-calling in the red-zone was a mess.
The thing is, I was a Mangini fan last year and in truth I'd like him to work out as the head coach of the Jets. But I won't bullshit for him, he's coached like a real turd this year. He's sitting at .500 and looking down, down, down.
Grade: D+
Cam Cameron is the worst coach in the AFC East, and it may not stop there. It's probably unfair to completely write this guy off as a head coach at this point, his woeful Dolphins did play the Browns pretty tough behind Cleo Lemon at quarterback, he's gotten brilliant play from his tailback, and they don't look like the worst team in the NFL at the moment, if only because the Rams are still allowed to suit up on Sundays. There's not much else to say about Cameron, he hasn't won a game as a head coach, probably will at some point, but the fact that there's a little doubt there is noteworthy.
Grade: C
AFC North
Why remove Mike Tomlin from his spot atop the AFC North? The two other preseason favorites in his division seem to be in decline while his Steelers are looking like a real contender. I'll be really interested to see what Pittsburgh looks like coming off of a bye week. I hope to have my suspicion that Tomlin is a terrific head coach confirmed by a brilliant effort.
Grade: N/A
There is very little doubt that Romeo Crennell is next on this list, especially now that the Browns are officially "taking care of business". They were supposed to beat the Dolphins, and though they made it look tougher than they needed to, they got the win, and Crennell was right to say it shows real progress in Cleveland. His offense is humming right now, and if they can get consistently average performances from their defense, they could score an improbable wild-card spot and finish second in their somewhat tough division.
Grade: B
Brian Billick's Ravens beat a team they were supposed to beat, but I don't know how good they can feel about it. I mean, their defense was dominant, but I really doubt Baltimore fans are too excited to see their offense back-sliding to their "Super Bowl" form. This is not the NFL of 1998, the Ravens will not get past the giants in their conference with such an awful offense. Billick has had a lot of time in Baltimore to assemble a capable unit, I find it pretty ominous that they're still rolling out a JV unit. I maintain that Billick's teams will never be further than a year away from competing for a playoff spot, and his .590 career regular season record is rather impressive.
Grade: C+
A team can hardly do worse coming off of a bye week than to lose to the Kansas City Chiefs. What the hell is Marvin Lewis doing? It's definitely panic time in Cincinnati, where their offense was nearly as bad as their defense, and they don't seem to have a clue how to turn it around. The loss of Rudi Johnson is clearly hurting this team, but I have almost no faith left in Marvin Lewis as a head coach, and I'd bet the Bengals front office is feeling the same way about a coach with a .522 win percentage for his career.
Grade: D
AFC South
Tony Dungy might be the best coach in the NFL. I'm just saying. His career mark is .657, the best among active head coaches by a wide margin. Yes, Belichick has won more Super Bowls, but Dungy might very well close the gap this season, while his Colts might be the most underrated 5-0 team in NFL history. Dungy was hired in Indianapolis to put a contending team over the top and he's done just that.
Grade: N/A
Jeff Fisher is the second best coach in this division, but that doesn't mean I think he's any less a coach than he was last week. I've had some time to reflect, and the fact is Dungy is one of the great head coaches in NFL history, he can't possibly be second best in his division, not when he's coaching an undefeated defending Super Bowl champion. The Titans didn't play their best on Sunday in Tampa Bay, but with a strikingly thin roster and a young team with young leadership, the Titans are a playoff team, and Fisher is a hell of a coach.
Grade: C+
God damned son of a bitch asshole Jack Del Rio. Fuck him. His team is kicking ass. His players are playing smart, determined football. They're beating all the teams they're supposed to beat, and look like a mortal lock to make the post-season, where they will be a scary opponent for anyone, ANYONE. Do the folks in Jacksonville trust that this guy won't undercut his team's success with some disloyal bullshit, or a poorly conceived motivational tactic? No, and neither do I. Has he proven that he can field a consistent team? No. Did he hose his former franchise quarterback? Yes, and that makes him an asshole.
Grade: A
The Texans had their season handed to them this weekend by the Jaguars. They don't have the playmakers to contend, and they're still the little kid in their division. That said, Gary Kubiak is a hell of a coach, and though they took a beating, they still looked like a professional team with pieces to build around. I don't see them in the playoffs, but they play in the toughest division in sports.
Grade: B-
AFC West
Still the turd of divisions in the NFL, I'm sticking with Lane Kiffin, and if I had to build a team today and had only AFC West coaches to choose from, it would be an easy decision, and I'd be pretty confident in the direction of my team. The Raiders were undone by their lack of talent on Sunday, and that will happen. There's no doubt the Chargers are a more gifted team, but give these Raiders a few years with Kiffin and they'll be a playoff team.
Grade: C+
You know what? I'm going to eat a little shit from last week, and I deserve it. Mike Shanahan is not somebody I'd want coaching the Skins, but you could do a lot worse than someone with a career .613 regular season win percentage and two Super Bowl victories, and the fact that I'm tossing this guy under a bus in the middle of a weak season with a second year QB and a team in flux is baloney. I'm not saying I love the guy, but he's done more than enough as an NFL head coach to deserve a few terrible seasons worth of slack.
Grade: N/A
Norv Turner is still in third place, but he's still not a great head coach, as his .418 career record indicates. He's quite a poor head coach, but I'm quietly hoping he'll figure it all out. I still won't pick his team to win until they get back to .500, but I do think they'll win the AFC West. I just like Norv, I think he's a good guy.
Grade: B
Herm Edwards is still the stinking rotten turd of NFL head coaches, and there's no way around it. So his team beat the imploding Bengals, big effing deal. Herm Edwards is not a coach that can take his team to the mountain top, it's that simple. The Chiefs stink, even if they make the playoffs they stink, and Herm is a lousy coach. I don't think he's a bad guy, just a bad football coach.
Grade: B
There you have it. Week 7 picks are coming later in the week. I traded Thomas Jones for Frank Gore. I now have only two players left on my team that haven't gone through their bye week, I have cash in the bank, two elite runners, and a good chance of digging my way out of the cellar. I went 7-6 with my picks in Week 6, so we may see another trip down "Home Team" lane this week.
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