I expect the following guys to be cut by the Skynards:
Derek Devine (He's got a big arm and has hardly played at all in the preseason. Maybe they're hiding him. Either way, he's a solid Practice Squad candidate.)
Durant Brooks (Even though they drafted him, Derek Frost looked so great on Saturday. This could go either way.)
Billy McMullin (This guy can play, but the Skins are too deep at the position. He'll end up somewhere.)
Anthony Mix (Good hands, but the position is too deep.)
Justin Tryon (It was a toss-up between Tryon and Byron Westbrook, but Westbrook has played a lot of special teams in the preseason. This could go either way.)
Justin Hamilton (Who?)
Patrick Ghee (Who?)
Cedric Holt (Seriously, who are these guys?)
Matteral Richardson (Got smoked by Steve Smith and is just a long shot. Could wind up on the practice squad.)
Alfred Fincher (Unbelievably, I didn't make that name up.)
Danny Verdun-Wheeler (Just re-signed for the umpteenth time, probably just for linebacker depth in the final preseason game.)
Curtis Gatewood (Who?)
Devin Clark (Who?)
Tavares Washington (Never heard of him.)
Justin Geisinger (Practice Squad candidate.)
Andrew Crummey (Who?)
Fred Matua (Signed right at the start of camp as preseason depth along the offensive line. No room for him on the permanent roster.)
Lorenzo Alexander (This was a bubble guy for me. It seems like he's played for the Skins.)
Maurice Mann (Truly a talented player, just no room on the 53-man roster for all these extra receivers. Prime Practice Squad candidate.)
Horace Gant (Who?)
Matthias Askew (Who?)
David Holloway (Who?)
No surprises on my list. I could see Durant Brooks getting the nod over Derek Frost because he was a draft pick. I could see a surprise in there, with maybe an extra receiver (Mann or McMullin), offensive lineman (Geisinger? Matua?) or defensive back (Richardson or Tryon) sticking at the expense of someone like Rob Jackson or another defensive lineman. We'll see. I feel pretty good about my list, though.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Week 1 Picks . . . No Bull!
So it's frickin' early, alright? I'm that smart, ok?
Washington @ New York Giants
The Giants win this game. Why? Because the Skins offensive line looked really shoddy against Carolina in pass protection, and even without Osi Umenyiora, the Giants have a hell of a pass-rush. Carolina also ran wild on Washington's defensive line, and Brandon Jacobs is just the best of New York's stable of talented runners. As much as I want the Redskins to win this game, they will not win this game. That's ok. They just need to get to week 6 at .500.
Giants over Redskins, 20-13
Detroit @ Atlanta
Detroit should win this game. They don't have much defense, but they've got two MONSTERS at receiver and a competent quarterback. Atlanta will run the ball, and probably very well. They've got at least one talented receiver. They, too, won't have much of a defense. The big difference here will be the combo rookie-quarterback/first-home-opener-local-blackout-ever factor. Seriously, the real over/under for this game is how many fans under capacity will show up for the season opener.
Lions over Falcons, 27-10
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
Wow. Which of these horrid, horrid teams will walk away with a shameful win in the opener? Yikes. Ummm . . . can't go with the Bengals. They're banged up and terrible. Plus they're on the road. How will Baltimore win? It better be the defense. Also, Carson Palmer will throw at least 2 picks.
Ravens over Bengals, 19-16
Seattle @ Buffalo
Not as easy a road win as some might think. Still, Trent Edwards DOES NOT throw the ball down the field, Jason Peters hasn't practiced for even one minute yet this off-season, and Marshawn Lynch hasn't been able to get going yet. Seattle has a big-time pass-rush, and they're just professional enough to win a tough one in still-warm Buffalo.
Seahawks over Bills, 20-17
New York Jets @ Miami
Ah to hell with it. I'm taking the Dolphins. Why? Because I can't keep taking road teams, I don't believe in the Jets, and I think the Dolphins will surprise some folks this year. Chad Pennington won't lose games for them, they'll run the ball a lot, and dammit, they're at home.
Dolphins over Jets, 17-13
Kansas City @ New England
Yeah. Right. This one's a bloodbath.
Patriots over Chiefs by many, many points
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
We'll learn so much about these teams in this game. New Orleans could swing anywhere between explosive-and-dangerous and soft-and-overrated. Tampa Bay could swing anywhere between can't-believe-they-made-the-playoffs-last-year and actually-good-enough-to-lose-another-playoff-game. I'm taking the home team. Frankly, I think the Bucs are terrible.
Saints over Bucs, 24-14
St. Louis @ Philadelphia
In my mind, the Eagles are maybe the second biggest favorite this weekend. If the Eagles played in another U.S. city, they'd be a huge, huge favorite. Because they play in Philadelphia and have some of the worst fans in sports, I'm shrinking the margin. St. Louis should be improved, but if the Eagles have that hungry, angry swagger we in the NFC East are so used to, they'll flatten the Rams. I'm taking 'em.
Eagles over Rams, 31-17
Houston @ Pittsburgh
Two good teams we don't know so much about. Either team could either be a) another super tough AFC playoff contender with a high-octane offense and dangerous pass-rush, or b) pass-happy without an adequate offensive line in a conference that will chew up incomplete teams. Pittsburgh is at home and has a tremendous home-field advantage. I like both teams, but Pittsburgh has the track record.
Steelers over Texans, 21-20
Jacksonville @ Tennessee
Wow, the schedule makers really kicked ass on opening weekend, didn't they? Almost every game is an even match-up, and the homefield advantage makes almost every game (save the borefest in New England) much more interesting. On a neutral site, Jacksonville wins this game on talent alone. In Jacksonville, the Titans would do well to keep it close. But the Titans are a prideful team with an excellent head coach, and they should get a boost from a fired up home crowd. Shoot. I guess I have to go with Jacksonville, but let me first say I'm not sold at all on the Jaguars as a legit offense. I like David Gerrard a lot, but I'm not sure he's going to repeat. Both teams have a strong running game and good defensive lines. Shoot. Shoot, shoot, shoot. Ah, fuck it.
Titans (yes, Titans) over Jaguars, 16-13
Dallas @ Cleveland
Two big-time offenses against two suspect defenses. Cleveland's defense is much more suspect, and they've got a thing or two to prove with their offense, too. I will be rooting hard for the Browns, but I suspect the Cowboys will walk away with this one, behind an effectively conservative offense and a few turnovers.
Cowboys over Browns, 28-20
Carolina @ San Diego
Upset special! Carolina wins!
Panthers over Chargers, 21-14
Arizona @ San Francisco
Arizona's potentially good offense versus San Francisco's potentially good defense. These NFC West match-ups are so, so, so depressing. Honestly, I'm disgusted by the 49ers now that they've added Mike Martz. I can't even root for guys like Vernon Davis or Frank Gore because any success they have will validate both Mike Martz's bullshit reputation as an offensive genius, and Mike Nolan's desperation move of bringing in Mike Martz, even though he knows he doesn't have the personnel and he knows Mike Martz doesn't run an offense that can give you a true contender anymore. So I'm rooting for the Cardinals, even though I don't give two shits about them.
Cardinals over 49ers, 27-17
Chicago @ Indianapolis
Indy wins this game, but Chicago'll give 'em a fight. Indianapolis hasn't had an opportunity to really get in shape this off-season due to injuries. Still, they're a pro team with a lot of tough, sharp veterans in the mix. Chicago is feisty, but they don't have talent for shit.
Colts over Bears 17-10
Minnesota @ Green Bay
Not sure. Really, really not sure. I'm not sold on Green Bay's offense or defense, but I like their guts, their professionalism, and their coaching. As for Minnesota, jeez they just can't sort out that passing game. If Tarvaris Jackson is healthy and full-speed, he'll surprise some folks. But man he seems to be butter soft, and he plays a little too recklessly. Minnesota's pass defense was trash last year, but that was mostly the pass-rush. Now they have some guys who can win some individual match-ups on the front line, so who knows? Ultimately, I guess I expect the Packers to do the job. Is that an upset?
Packers over Vikings, 20-17
Denver @ Oakland
Upset special number two! Raiders win!
Raiders over Broncos, 27-14
Of course, I reserve the right to change a pick or two between now and next Thursday, depending on injuries, roster-moves, or just a change of heart. I'll let you know.
Go Skynards!
Washington @ New York Giants
The Giants win this game. Why? Because the Skins offensive line looked really shoddy against Carolina in pass protection, and even without Osi Umenyiora, the Giants have a hell of a pass-rush. Carolina also ran wild on Washington's defensive line, and Brandon Jacobs is just the best of New York's stable of talented runners. As much as I want the Redskins to win this game, they will not win this game. That's ok. They just need to get to week 6 at .500.
Giants over Redskins, 20-13
Detroit @ Atlanta
Detroit should win this game. They don't have much defense, but they've got two MONSTERS at receiver and a competent quarterback. Atlanta will run the ball, and probably very well. They've got at least one talented receiver. They, too, won't have much of a defense. The big difference here will be the combo rookie-quarterback/first-home-opener-local-blackout-ever factor. Seriously, the real over/under for this game is how many fans under capacity will show up for the season opener.
Lions over Falcons, 27-10
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
Wow. Which of these horrid, horrid teams will walk away with a shameful win in the opener? Yikes. Ummm . . . can't go with the Bengals. They're banged up and terrible. Plus they're on the road. How will Baltimore win? It better be the defense. Also, Carson Palmer will throw at least 2 picks.
Ravens over Bengals, 19-16
Seattle @ Buffalo
Not as easy a road win as some might think. Still, Trent Edwards DOES NOT throw the ball down the field, Jason Peters hasn't practiced for even one minute yet this off-season, and Marshawn Lynch hasn't been able to get going yet. Seattle has a big-time pass-rush, and they're just professional enough to win a tough one in still-warm Buffalo.
Seahawks over Bills, 20-17
New York Jets @ Miami
Ah to hell with it. I'm taking the Dolphins. Why? Because I can't keep taking road teams, I don't believe in the Jets, and I think the Dolphins will surprise some folks this year. Chad Pennington won't lose games for them, they'll run the ball a lot, and dammit, they're at home.
Dolphins over Jets, 17-13
Kansas City @ New England
Yeah. Right. This one's a bloodbath.
Patriots over Chiefs by many, many points
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
We'll learn so much about these teams in this game. New Orleans could swing anywhere between explosive-and-dangerous and soft-and-overrated. Tampa Bay could swing anywhere between can't-believe-they-made-the-playoffs-last-year and actually-good-enough-to-lose-another-playoff-game. I'm taking the home team. Frankly, I think the Bucs are terrible.
Saints over Bucs, 24-14
St. Louis @ Philadelphia
In my mind, the Eagles are maybe the second biggest favorite this weekend. If the Eagles played in another U.S. city, they'd be a huge, huge favorite. Because they play in Philadelphia and have some of the worst fans in sports, I'm shrinking the margin. St. Louis should be improved, but if the Eagles have that hungry, angry swagger we in the NFC East are so used to, they'll flatten the Rams. I'm taking 'em.
Eagles over Rams, 31-17
Houston @ Pittsburgh
Two good teams we don't know so much about. Either team could either be a) another super tough AFC playoff contender with a high-octane offense and dangerous pass-rush, or b) pass-happy without an adequate offensive line in a conference that will chew up incomplete teams. Pittsburgh is at home and has a tremendous home-field advantage. I like both teams, but Pittsburgh has the track record.
Steelers over Texans, 21-20
Jacksonville @ Tennessee
Wow, the schedule makers really kicked ass on opening weekend, didn't they? Almost every game is an even match-up, and the homefield advantage makes almost every game (save the borefest in New England) much more interesting. On a neutral site, Jacksonville wins this game on talent alone. In Jacksonville, the Titans would do well to keep it close. But the Titans are a prideful team with an excellent head coach, and they should get a boost from a fired up home crowd. Shoot. I guess I have to go with Jacksonville, but let me first say I'm not sold at all on the Jaguars as a legit offense. I like David Gerrard a lot, but I'm not sure he's going to repeat. Both teams have a strong running game and good defensive lines. Shoot. Shoot, shoot, shoot. Ah, fuck it.
Titans (yes, Titans) over Jaguars, 16-13
Dallas @ Cleveland
Two big-time offenses against two suspect defenses. Cleveland's defense is much more suspect, and they've got a thing or two to prove with their offense, too. I will be rooting hard for the Browns, but I suspect the Cowboys will walk away with this one, behind an effectively conservative offense and a few turnovers.
Cowboys over Browns, 28-20
Carolina @ San Diego
Upset special! Carolina wins!
Panthers over Chargers, 21-14
Arizona @ San Francisco
Arizona's potentially good offense versus San Francisco's potentially good defense. These NFC West match-ups are so, so, so depressing. Honestly, I'm disgusted by the 49ers now that they've added Mike Martz. I can't even root for guys like Vernon Davis or Frank Gore because any success they have will validate both Mike Martz's bullshit reputation as an offensive genius, and Mike Nolan's desperation move of bringing in Mike Martz, even though he knows he doesn't have the personnel and he knows Mike Martz doesn't run an offense that can give you a true contender anymore. So I'm rooting for the Cardinals, even though I don't give two shits about them.
Cardinals over 49ers, 27-17
Chicago @ Indianapolis
Indy wins this game, but Chicago'll give 'em a fight. Indianapolis hasn't had an opportunity to really get in shape this off-season due to injuries. Still, they're a pro team with a lot of tough, sharp veterans in the mix. Chicago is feisty, but they don't have talent for shit.
Colts over Bears 17-10
Minnesota @ Green Bay
Not sure. Really, really not sure. I'm not sold on Green Bay's offense or defense, but I like their guts, their professionalism, and their coaching. As for Minnesota, jeez they just can't sort out that passing game. If Tarvaris Jackson is healthy and full-speed, he'll surprise some folks. But man he seems to be butter soft, and he plays a little too recklessly. Minnesota's pass defense was trash last year, but that was mostly the pass-rush. Now they have some guys who can win some individual match-ups on the front line, so who knows? Ultimately, I guess I expect the Packers to do the job. Is that an upset?
Packers over Vikings, 20-17
Denver @ Oakland
Upset special number two! Raiders win!
Raiders over Broncos, 27-14
Of course, I reserve the right to change a pick or two between now and next Thursday, depending on injuries, roster-moves, or just a change of heart. I'll let you know.
Go Skynards!
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