As a lifelong Redskins fan, I'm having a real hard time tossing them under a bus in any game during a season in which they have a real shot of making some noise in the postseason. You see, it's been 10 years or so since we Skins fans took our team's chances of playing a meaningful late-season game seriously. The 2007 Redskins have a lot to be excited about, and I'm feeling increasingly guilty about giving them no chance in this Sunday's matchup. In all likelihood, someone's gonna beat the Patriots this season. The Pats aren't beating people because, like the Yankees or Red Sox, they've compiled a murderers row of players by outspending everyone else. In the salary cap era of football, we presume that all teams have roughly the same talent level within a certain narrow range, and the difference between a great team and a poor team could be injuries, chemistry, coaching, leadership, scheme, or even schedule, but is almost never talent level. The basic idea here is this: Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and probably Benjamin Watson are all going to make the Pro-Bowl in 2007, but it should not be because they're a whole lot faster or stronger or taller or whatever than their opponents. Randy Moss is fast; Santana Moss is fast. Wes Welker is shifty; Antwan Randle El is shifty. Benjamin Watson is a good mix of size, receiving skills, and instincts, as is Chris Cooley, his Skins counterpart. Tom Brady gets a big nod over Jason Campbell, but not because he's taller (he isn't), has a better arm (he certainly does not), runs faster (not on your life), or is even more accurate, though that's certainly debatable. Brady is a sharp player who understands his system, keeps his head about him, and trusts his playmakers. Jason Campbell has a long way to go, but he's certainly a quality NFL quarterback. The two running games are obviously a push, with both teams featuring a two-headed system and neither team getting many big plays on the ground. In short, in my opinion, the two major differences between these offenses are scheme and the health of the offensive line. There's not much to do about that offensive line, but as far as scheme goes, the Redskins didn't hire Al Saunders and make him the highest paid offensive coordinator in the NFL for nothing: this guy knows how to dial it up. Joe Gibbs didn't win three Super Bowls with his good looks: he knows a thing or two about putting points on the board (read: The Fun Bunch, The Hogs, The Posse, etc.). The Patriots obviously have a superior offense, but my point is, the Redskins offense is nothing to spit at. It certainly isn't the worst group the Patriots have faced. If the Dolphins can put points up with their backup quarterback, no-name receiving corps, and a big injury to their top player, certainly the Redskins ought to be able to as well.
Defensively, I might be a crazy man, but I think the Redskins are the superior team. Without question, the Patriots are a strong defense. They've also been helped a lot by the fact that their offense has forced virtually every opponent to play from behind and become one dimensional, and lest we forget, the Pats have given up 20 or more offensive points to their last two opponents, including the sad-sack Miami Dolphins. The Pats have faced a number of strong offenses, including the 2nd ranked Cowboys, the 4th ranked Bengals, the 7th ranked Browns, and the 13th ranked Chargers, but they've also picked on the 31st ranked Bills, the 29th ranked Jets, and the 15th ranked but truly terrible Dolphins (who put 28 points on the board behind Cleo Lemon). They're only giving up 17 points per game, good for 10th in the NFL. They Pats have a very good defense, but one would hardly describe them as dominant. The Redskins, on the other hand, have the NFL's 5th ranked defense in terms of yards, and 3rd ranked defense in terms of points per game, only giving up about 14.5 a game. The Redskins have faced a number of strong offenses this season, including the 8th ranked Eagles, 9th ranked Giants, the 11th ranked Packers, the 12th ranked Cardinals, and the 16th ranked Detroit Lions, but have also feasted on the sad-sack Dolphins, who played with Trent Green at quarterback in week 1 and only managed 13 points. The Redskins have the 5th ranked rushing defense and the 8th ranked passing defense in the NFL, and have allowed only 5 passing touchdowns through six games. The Patriots have the 9th ranked rushing defense and the 4th ranked passing defense, and have allowed 9 passing touchdowns on the year. Both teams are adept at forcing turnovers, and the Patriots have, statistically, the superior pass-rush. Again, I submit that when you're playing with a huge lead and your opponent is forced to play a pass-heavy offense, you're going to have a lot of sack opportunities. As I stated above, I think the Redskins have the superior defense in this game, and are almost certainly the best defense the Patriots have faced this season.
Then there's this: there's a hell of a lot of character on this Redskins team. Guys like London Fletcher-Baker, Marcus Washington, Fred Smoot, and Shawn Springs aren't the sad bunch of career losers of past Redskins defenses, and I just don't see these guys accepting a pounding. The benefit of drafting guys like Laron Landry, Sean Taylor, and Carlos Rogers, beyond their supreme athletic gifts, is that when you get players from programs like LSU, Miami, and Auburn, you're getting guys who are used to winning, who expect to win, who believe they can run and hit with anybody and won't back down. When you've got coaches like Al Saunders and Gregg Williams, you've got coaches who can game plan with the best coaches out there, are paid like it, know it, and have the faith of their players. Joe Gibbs is the other coach in the NFL with three Super Bowl rings and the only Hall of Famer Bill Belichick will have to worry about at any point this season.
I'm not predicting a Redskins win. I'm hoping to see the Redskins come out with a big chip on their shoulder, same as every team the Patriots have faced this season. I'm hoping they decide to punch the Patriots offense right in the mouth from the opening play, muscle them around, play with attitude, fly to the ball, and show some pride. That's what they've done each week so far, and the truth is, it isn't something the Patriots have had to deal with yet. I don't think they can afford to sit back and let Tom Brady chill in the pocket, though it's worked against lesser foes, if for no other reason than if you give Wes Welker and Randy Moss enough time, they're bound to outrun somebody, and even if they don't there's always Benjamin Watson or Dante Stallworth to find a hole. That means the Skins will have to blitz some, and I hope when they do it, they have the balls to overload parts of the offensive line and bring everybody. Gregg Williams has a way of evenly spacing his pass rush so it looks like an organized offensive group can easily pick them off one by one. I'd like to see a few overload blitzes: no amount of organization is going to enable your right tackle and right guard to block 5 pass rushers, and they simply have to have to HAVE to get some pressure on Brady.
I'm hoping that, offensively, the Redskins open it up early and take a few shots down the field. Keep the reverses and half-back passes in the playbook and take a few good old fashioned shots deep down the field, preferrably right up the seam. The Patriots don't have fast safeties, whereas the Redskins have two of the fastest receivers in the NFL. If the Redskins can force the Patriots defense to back up a little and respect the deep ball, the Skins will have the option of playing a balanced offense, something no other team has had the luxury of doing against New England this season. I also hope they go to roll-out passes; with their offensive line, they can't expect to form much of a consistent pocket. Jason Campbell is a good runner and a sound decision maker, and I think roll-out plays would be a great way to neutralize the Patriots pass rush and blitz schemes.
Most importantly, the Redskins can't play scared, and I'm not even talking about the guys in helmets. The coaches need to take the diapers off, so to speak, and go for the kill. The Patriots have shown, above all else, that they can and will score big-time points in bunches. They've also shown a nasty, evil killer streak, putting up touchdowns at the tail end of garbage time in huge blowout wins. If the Redskins want to hang with the Patriots, they need the same attitude. They can't go out there to steal a win, they've got to go out there to beat up and humiliate the Patriots, to exploit every opportunity and not take their feet of the gas until both teams are already in the locker room after the end of the game.
I'm leaving work early on Sunday so I can watch this game, with my own two eyes, from beginning to end. That might be a bad, bad sign for the Skynards. I have a way of causing the Redskins to play poorly just by watching, but as with anything associated with this game, I'm doing a lot of hoping that a lot of things will go differently this Sunday.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
And Then There Was Week 8
Maybe I'm crazy, but I think this is one of the tougher weeks to call, and maybe not the time to try to reintegrate football knowledge into my picks. There are a lot of even matchups between relatively weak teams this weekend, a few matchups where the favorite is the road team, and a game or two between evenly matched good teams. These games are pretty tough to call, in one man's opinion, and I may be going out on a limb with a number of them.
Indianapolis @ Carolina
Maybe this is an easy game to call, but I'm having something of a crisis of confidence right now. I'm finding it extremely difficult to have faith in any NFL team to take care of business, even the excellent Indianapolis Colts, who have been the second most reliable team in football through 7 weeks. Carolina is one of those ugly teams that has a way of making everyone else play ugly football, and though Indianapolis just dispatched another version of that same model in Jacksonville, John Fox isn't nearly the asshole Jack Del Rio is, and he's had two weeks to prepare. Because Indianapolis is healthy, professional, and really rolling right now, I'll stick with 'em, but don't be surprised if this one is closer than many expect.
Colts over Panthers, 28-20 I keep putting Indianapolis in these close games, and they keep mopping the floor with their opponents. It's a formula that works for me.
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
I have a feeling in my gut that tells me the Bengals are going to win this game. They're a desperate bunch right now, needing every home game left to have a shot at the playoffs. The Steelers, on the other hand, just crapped the bed in their disappointing loss to the Broncos in Denver, and now they're looking to get back on track and re-establish themselves as a top team in the AFC. These AFC North games have a way of always being close, no matter if the teams combine to score 100 points or 17. I can't get past the way Pittsburgh seemed too smart-ass and cute for their own good against the Broncos, passing far too often against a team with a laughably bad run defense. It was the same amateur crap you saw from Jacksonville against Indy, and both teams paid the price in the loss column. If Pittsburgh gets back to their bread and butter, which is their formerly first-ranked running game, limits turnovers and doesn't have a defensive meltdown, they ought to win. Shit. I really don't know.
Steelers over Bengals, 31-24 I hate the way this weekend is shaping up already.
Detroit @ Chicago
This is another really tough game to call. Detroit won the first go 'round, but they needed 34 fourth quarter points to pull it off, and this one's in Chicago. The Bears have a little momentum going right now, whereas the Lions haven't had much explosiveness in their offense since they were dismantled by the Redskins 3 weeks ago. This would be a major setback for the Bears and a minor setback for the Lions, plus I think Lovie Smith is a great head coach. Fuck it, I'm taking da Bears.
Bears over Lions, 24-17
Oakland @ Tennessee
On paper, this is an easier game to call. Oakland is supposed to be crap, plus they just lost at home to the goddamn Chiefs. Tennessee, on the other hand, just pulled out a road victory in Houston with their backup quarterback. Tennessee is supposed to be a playoff contender, Oakland is supposed to be a doormat. Jeff Fisher is a great head coach that almost won a Super Bowl, whereas Lane Kiffin still needs his mom to drive him to the stadium. Vince Young is expected to play, and Oakland has shown a weakness against the running game, which is the strength of the Titans. I feel better about this pick than the others, but not great, and I think a lot of that has to do with my uncertainty over the production of Vince Young. He's been an erratic passer this season, and Oakland has been great at causing turnovers and capitalizing.
Titans over Raiders, 20-10
Cleveland @ St. Louis
Again, this looks like an easy game to call. The Browns can score quickly and easily, and the Rams can't stop anybody. The Browns have also had two weeks to prepare and get healthy, whereas the Rams just got anal-ated by the Sea-jacks and aren't healthy at any position on offense. There's a rumor that Stephen Jackson might play, which might change the look of this game, and the Rams are at home. I have to think the Browns will be able to score pretty easily, putting the pressure on the Rams to answer, and with their offensive line, I'm not sure they're up to it. The Rams are almost certainly looking at this game as one of few on their schedule they have a real shot of winning, but I just don't see it happening.
Browns over Rams, 34-20 Notice that I've picked 3 of 5 road teams to this point. That's bad, bad news.
Philadelphia @ Minnesota
Jesus, I'm so uncertain about these games, I'm actually considering throwing my hands up. Look, I know the Eagles are supposed to be an easy team to pick against, just look at their record! But I've spent that last five years looking up at them from the bottom of the NFC East, and let me tell you, it's hard to switch over and think of a team that still has Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Brian Dawkins, Javon Kearse, and Andy Reid as an easy team to pick against, especially going against a Vikings team that may be starting Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback with a broken finger. Brad Childress spent a lot of time working in Philadelphia for Andy Reid, which means each of them probably knows what to expect from from the other, which makes this especially tough for me. I like the Adrian Peterson/Chester Taylor factor, and I like the fact that Minnesota is at home. This could very well be Andy Reid's final game as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles. You heard it here first.
Vikings over Eagles, 24-21 Then it comes time to pick the score, and all of a sudden I'm quite sure the Eagles will win.
New York Giants @ London
That's right, the Giants are playing against London, because the only thing that keeps them from winning this game is something going wrong in their hotel or en route to the game.
Giants over Dolphins, 35-9
Buffalo @ New York Jets
The Jets are in so much trouble right now, and the Bills are a hell of a lot more interesting and professional. Neither team sports a dominant defense, or even much of a defense at all, and neither team has much of an offense. The Jets have superior receivers and a more established backfield, though they don't seem to know how to use either. The Bills nearly beat the Cowboys at home and then DID beat the Ravens at home, but now they're on the road, albeit in the same state. Screw it.
Bills over Jets, 21-20 Falling back on my old bad habits of making as many games close as possible.
Houston @ San Diego
This has been a tough week for the Chargers, having to evacuate San Diego and practice in Arizona because of wild-fires. These poor bastards have enough to worry about without having to think about winning a football game, their houses are burning down and their friends and family are living in Qualcomm Stadium. Still, they're a much more talented team and they've had two weeks to prepare. If you've lived through a Norv Turner stint with your home team, you know things like "home field advantage" and "bye weeks" don't generally mean squat, but I'd like to think the Chargers are different. Plus, the Texans are really really banged up, and it looks like Andre Johnson may not play at all this season.
Chargers over Texans, 31-17
Jacksonville @ Tampa Bay
I'm so sick of picking the goddamn Jaguars. Jon Gruden is a one-thousand times better head coach than Jack Del Rio, but beyond that, these teams are pretty well matched. Jacksonville has the better defense. Jacksonville has the superior running game. Tampa has the superior receivers, and they have a healthy quarterback. Quarterbacks, by the by, are a push in my opinion. Joey Galloway is about as likely to produce a big play as Maurice Jones-Drew. Shit. Jacksonville has the 6th best kickoff return average in the NFL, Tampa is 12th. Tampa is 14th in punt return average, Jacksonville is 27th. Neither team has scored a special teams touchdown. Tampa is at home coming off a tough loss, Jacksonville is on the road coming off a bed-crapping blowout. They play in the same state, so how much can home field really mean? Jesus. Jesus jesus jesus. Oh wait, it seems David Garrard will not play in this one. Game over.
Bucs over Jaguars, 20-10 The Bucs should be looking at good field position and a few turnovers to help their offense.
Washington @ New England
Do I think Washington has a chance of winning this game? Maybe. Maybe I do. Do I think they will? No, not at all. The best I can hope for is that they play the Patriots closer than anybody else to this point, that I can live with. The fact that the Patriots are 19 point favorites doesn't bode well.
Patriots over Redskins, 31-21 I'll be overjoyed if they get this close.
New Orleans @ San Francisco
I don't have a reason for picking the 49ers in this one. I think Frank Gore is a lot better back than Reggie Bush. Mike Nolan has a few more years under his belt as a head coach than Sean Payton. The 49ers just might have a better defense than the Saints. Mostly, they're at home, and neither team really gets my blood going.
49ers over Saints, 20-16
Green Bay @ Denver
Somehow, Denver gets their second primetime game in a row. So much for flexible scheduling. They took down a much more balanced and talented team Sunday night in the Steelers, and like the Packers, the Steelers were off a bye. Champ Bailey and Dre Bly are both gimpy heading into this game. The strength of the Packers offense is passing the ball, the strength of Denver's defense is defending the pass. This is actually quite a test for Green Bay. I like Mike McCarthy as a head coach and Brett Favre as a quarterback, and I trust them to get the job done on the bye week. I still think the Broncos don't have much consistency on offense.
Packers over Broncos, 23-17
I don't feel very good at all about these picks. I ended up taking seven home teams and six road teams, a recipe for disaster. I'm ashamed to say the two picks I'm the most confident in are the ones that hurt the Skins the most: their game at New England and the Giants game vs. Miami.
Ok, I'm going to allow myself to say this: the Redskins are the best defense the Patriots have faced this season, and probably the second best offense. Joe Gibbs is, by any measure, the best head coach they've faced. The Skins have shut down a number of top passing offenses already this year. The Patriots gave up 28 points to the Dolphins last week. I'm not saying the Redskins are going to win this game, no way. But I do think that if they come out with any sort of offensive rhythm and their defense plays the way they've been playing, plus a little more pocket pressure, they could keep it respectable. That's all I'm saying.
Go Skynards.
Indianapolis @ Carolina
Maybe this is an easy game to call, but I'm having something of a crisis of confidence right now. I'm finding it extremely difficult to have faith in any NFL team to take care of business, even the excellent Indianapolis Colts, who have been the second most reliable team in football through 7 weeks. Carolina is one of those ugly teams that has a way of making everyone else play ugly football, and though Indianapolis just dispatched another version of that same model in Jacksonville, John Fox isn't nearly the asshole Jack Del Rio is, and he's had two weeks to prepare. Because Indianapolis is healthy, professional, and really rolling right now, I'll stick with 'em, but don't be surprised if this one is closer than many expect.
Colts over Panthers, 28-20 I keep putting Indianapolis in these close games, and they keep mopping the floor with their opponents. It's a formula that works for me.
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
I have a feeling in my gut that tells me the Bengals are going to win this game. They're a desperate bunch right now, needing every home game left to have a shot at the playoffs. The Steelers, on the other hand, just crapped the bed in their disappointing loss to the Broncos in Denver, and now they're looking to get back on track and re-establish themselves as a top team in the AFC. These AFC North games have a way of always being close, no matter if the teams combine to score 100 points or 17. I can't get past the way Pittsburgh seemed too smart-ass and cute for their own good against the Broncos, passing far too often against a team with a laughably bad run defense. It was the same amateur crap you saw from Jacksonville against Indy, and both teams paid the price in the loss column. If Pittsburgh gets back to their bread and butter, which is their formerly first-ranked running game, limits turnovers and doesn't have a defensive meltdown, they ought to win. Shit. I really don't know.
Steelers over Bengals, 31-24 I hate the way this weekend is shaping up already.
Detroit @ Chicago
This is another really tough game to call. Detroit won the first go 'round, but they needed 34 fourth quarter points to pull it off, and this one's in Chicago. The Bears have a little momentum going right now, whereas the Lions haven't had much explosiveness in their offense since they were dismantled by the Redskins 3 weeks ago. This would be a major setback for the Bears and a minor setback for the Lions, plus I think Lovie Smith is a great head coach. Fuck it, I'm taking da Bears.
Bears over Lions, 24-17
Oakland @ Tennessee
On paper, this is an easier game to call. Oakland is supposed to be crap, plus they just lost at home to the goddamn Chiefs. Tennessee, on the other hand, just pulled out a road victory in Houston with their backup quarterback. Tennessee is supposed to be a playoff contender, Oakland is supposed to be a doormat. Jeff Fisher is a great head coach that almost won a Super Bowl, whereas Lane Kiffin still needs his mom to drive him to the stadium. Vince Young is expected to play, and Oakland has shown a weakness against the running game, which is the strength of the Titans. I feel better about this pick than the others, but not great, and I think a lot of that has to do with my uncertainty over the production of Vince Young. He's been an erratic passer this season, and Oakland has been great at causing turnovers and capitalizing.
Titans over Raiders, 20-10
Cleveland @ St. Louis
Again, this looks like an easy game to call. The Browns can score quickly and easily, and the Rams can't stop anybody. The Browns have also had two weeks to prepare and get healthy, whereas the Rams just got anal-ated by the Sea-jacks and aren't healthy at any position on offense. There's a rumor that Stephen Jackson might play, which might change the look of this game, and the Rams are at home. I have to think the Browns will be able to score pretty easily, putting the pressure on the Rams to answer, and with their offensive line, I'm not sure they're up to it. The Rams are almost certainly looking at this game as one of few on their schedule they have a real shot of winning, but I just don't see it happening.
Browns over Rams, 34-20 Notice that I've picked 3 of 5 road teams to this point. That's bad, bad news.
Philadelphia @ Minnesota
Jesus, I'm so uncertain about these games, I'm actually considering throwing my hands up. Look, I know the Eagles are supposed to be an easy team to pick against, just look at their record! But I've spent that last five years looking up at them from the bottom of the NFC East, and let me tell you, it's hard to switch over and think of a team that still has Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Brian Dawkins, Javon Kearse, and Andy Reid as an easy team to pick against, especially going against a Vikings team that may be starting Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback with a broken finger. Brad Childress spent a lot of time working in Philadelphia for Andy Reid, which means each of them probably knows what to expect from from the other, which makes this especially tough for me. I like the Adrian Peterson/Chester Taylor factor, and I like the fact that Minnesota is at home. This could very well be Andy Reid's final game as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles. You heard it here first.
Vikings over Eagles, 24-21 Then it comes time to pick the score, and all of a sudden I'm quite sure the Eagles will win.
New York Giants @ London
That's right, the Giants are playing against London, because the only thing that keeps them from winning this game is something going wrong in their hotel or en route to the game.
Giants over Dolphins, 35-9
Buffalo @ New York Jets
The Jets are in so much trouble right now, and the Bills are a hell of a lot more interesting and professional. Neither team sports a dominant defense, or even much of a defense at all, and neither team has much of an offense. The Jets have superior receivers and a more established backfield, though they don't seem to know how to use either. The Bills nearly beat the Cowboys at home and then DID beat the Ravens at home, but now they're on the road, albeit in the same state. Screw it.
Bills over Jets, 21-20 Falling back on my old bad habits of making as many games close as possible.
Houston @ San Diego
This has been a tough week for the Chargers, having to evacuate San Diego and practice in Arizona because of wild-fires. These poor bastards have enough to worry about without having to think about winning a football game, their houses are burning down and their friends and family are living in Qualcomm Stadium. Still, they're a much more talented team and they've had two weeks to prepare. If you've lived through a Norv Turner stint with your home team, you know things like "home field advantage" and "bye weeks" don't generally mean squat, but I'd like to think the Chargers are different. Plus, the Texans are really really banged up, and it looks like Andre Johnson may not play at all this season.
Chargers over Texans, 31-17
Jacksonville @ Tampa Bay
I'm so sick of picking the goddamn Jaguars. Jon Gruden is a one-thousand times better head coach than Jack Del Rio, but beyond that, these teams are pretty well matched. Jacksonville has the better defense. Jacksonville has the superior running game. Tampa has the superior receivers, and they have a healthy quarterback. Quarterbacks, by the by, are a push in my opinion. Joey Galloway is about as likely to produce a big play as Maurice Jones-Drew. Shit. Jacksonville has the 6th best kickoff return average in the NFL, Tampa is 12th. Tampa is 14th in punt return average, Jacksonville is 27th. Neither team has scored a special teams touchdown. Tampa is at home coming off a tough loss, Jacksonville is on the road coming off a bed-crapping blowout. They play in the same state, so how much can home field really mean? Jesus. Jesus jesus jesus. Oh wait, it seems David Garrard will not play in this one. Game over.
Bucs over Jaguars, 20-10 The Bucs should be looking at good field position and a few turnovers to help their offense.
Washington @ New England
Do I think Washington has a chance of winning this game? Maybe. Maybe I do. Do I think they will? No, not at all. The best I can hope for is that they play the Patriots closer than anybody else to this point, that I can live with. The fact that the Patriots are 19 point favorites doesn't bode well.
Patriots over Redskins, 31-21 I'll be overjoyed if they get this close.
New Orleans @ San Francisco
I don't have a reason for picking the 49ers in this one. I think Frank Gore is a lot better back than Reggie Bush. Mike Nolan has a few more years under his belt as a head coach than Sean Payton. The 49ers just might have a better defense than the Saints. Mostly, they're at home, and neither team really gets my blood going.
49ers over Saints, 20-16
Green Bay @ Denver
Somehow, Denver gets their second primetime game in a row. So much for flexible scheduling. They took down a much more balanced and talented team Sunday night in the Steelers, and like the Packers, the Steelers were off a bye. Champ Bailey and Dre Bly are both gimpy heading into this game. The strength of the Packers offense is passing the ball, the strength of Denver's defense is defending the pass. This is actually quite a test for Green Bay. I like Mike McCarthy as a head coach and Brett Favre as a quarterback, and I trust them to get the job done on the bye week. I still think the Broncos don't have much consistency on offense.
Packers over Broncos, 23-17
I don't feel very good at all about these picks. I ended up taking seven home teams and six road teams, a recipe for disaster. I'm ashamed to say the two picks I'm the most confident in are the ones that hurt the Skins the most: their game at New England and the Giants game vs. Miami.
Ok, I'm going to allow myself to say this: the Redskins are the best defense the Patriots have faced this season, and probably the second best offense. Joe Gibbs is, by any measure, the best head coach they've faced. The Skins have shut down a number of top passing offenses already this year. The Patriots gave up 28 points to the Dolphins last week. I'm not saying the Redskins are going to win this game, no way. But I do think that if they come out with any sort of offensive rhythm and their defense plays the way they've been playing, plus a little more pocket pressure, they could keep it respectable. That's all I'm saying.
Go Skynards.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Holy Wow.
A person would have a hard time being more on-the-money that I was with my picks for Week 7 in the NFL. I don't know what to say about that. Apart from my 11-3 showing, I came within a couple of points of picking the exact final scores of multiple games, including a bulls-eye on the Cowboys/Vikings game. I'm feeling pretty good about that, and my fantasy team is out of the cellar and in fourth place, I might just take my balls off the shelf and go out on a limb on my Week 8 picks. Will I go so far as to pick the Skynards over the Pats in New England? You'll have to wait and see, but the early indicators are not good.
And without further ado . . .
Bills over Ravens, 19-14
My Pick: Bills over Ravens, 17-12 Emo Pick: Bills
Again, you'd have a hard time getting the final score any closer than that. In my pick, I said only the Bills would get in the endzone, and the Ravens would get four field goals, so I was wrong about something. Here's the truth that was uncovered in this game: Baltimore is not a good football team and they can't score. They still don't have a single explosive player on offense, and the Bills are, without a doubt, the better team. What has happened to the AFC North? All of a sudden Cincinnati and Baltimore are awful teams, and what was once the toughest, deepest division in football is now looking like it'll be lucky to get a wild-card in the playoffs, and that's saying something considering how piss poor the AFC East and West are. Also, Trent Edwards threw another killer pick in this game. Look, at this point, because Dick Jauron said he's the guy, I think you have to stick with him while the Bills are winning, but Edwards isn't doing anything Losman can't do, and he also isn't doing anything Losman does do, like look down the field and challenge the secondary. I'm quite certain Losman is the better player, and I'd be thrilled if he got the starting job back.
Giants over 49ers, 33-15
My Pick: Giants over 49ers, 31-17 Emo Pick: 49ers
Look how close I was on the final score! Man, I was riding high on Sunday. Eli Manning did enough to win this game ugly, but somehow the Giants won it by 18 points. I think that has a lot to do with how terrible and depressing the 49ers are. Their offensive line got shredded by the Giants front four and Trent Dilfer continues to show how limited he is when he isn't playing behind a top-notch line and a dominant running game. The 49ers are fading fast, and I have a hard time believing the return of Alex Smith is going to make the difference. The way I see it, this team needs another off-season of work on their line, some receiver upgrades, and for Smith and Vernon Davis to develop some chemistry. The Giants are the hottest team in the NFC right now and are closing the gap between themselves and the Cowboys, play-wise, to the point that the Cowboys aren't the mortal lock to win the NFC East many thought they were a few weeks ago.
Patriots over Dolphins, 49-28
My Pick: Patriots over Dolphins, 31-6 Emo Pick: Patriots
I was enjoying this blow-out until Ronnie Brown went down with a torn ACL. I've got no love for the Dolphins, but Ronnie Brown was having a break-out year, and that's a hell of an injury and a terrible shame. The Dolphins were pretty openly tanking their season after trading Chambers, but now they've got to be seriously considering the likelihood that they may not win a game. It's very possible that Dolphins fans will be mourning a winless season in week 17 while they watch, Sunday night, to see if the Patriots will be the first team since Miami's 1972 squad to go undefeated through the regular season. I have to think that would be a major embarrassment for the Miami franchise, and I wouldn't expect Cam Cameron to survive it, nor would I expect Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas, or about 15 other guys who can no longer help the Dolphins win games.
Titans over Texans, 38-36
My Pick: Titans over Texans, 24-21 Emo Pick: Titans
I almost got the final margin in this one, but I was way off when it comes to the spirit of the game. I thought both offenses would be successful but conservative, and I thought the game would be close because neither team would be able to pull away, and I was wrong on both counts. Neither team can feel real good walking away from this one, not after the Texans lost a home game to the Titans, who were playing without their franchise quarterback, and the Titans gave up 29 points in the fourth quarter. I guess winning a division road game with your backup quarterback is something to be proud of, but let's not forget that Houston went most of the game without their franchise quarterback as well, and Parsley Sage Rose(mary)nfels & Thyme isn't exactly Steve Young coming off the bench.
Lions over Bucs, 23-16
My Pick: Lions over Bucs 28-17 Emo Pick: Lions
I'm not making this stuff up! Go check my picks from last week! It was nice to see Calvin Johnson make a play in this game, and he looked great doing it. Kevin Jones had a nice game, too, and I think Rod Marinelli may have put his foot down in the off week and insisted that the Lions work on establishing the ground game. They sure have the pieces for it. Kevin Jones is a quality back, and Tatum Bell and T. J. Duckett off the bench are two of the better backups in the NFL. They really ought to run the ball successfully each week. I was wrong about Jeff Garcia throwing a pick in this game, but he did lose two fumbles, and I think the injuries at tailback finally caught up to the Bucs. The Lions are a fast defense, but they aren't especially big or strong and healthy teams ought to be able to run on them. The Lions hold on to their post-season hopes for a week longer. Good for them.
Saints over Falcons, 22-16
My Pick: Saints over Falcons, 16-13 Emo Pick: Saints
I may not have nailed the final score on this one, but I still feel I had this one pegged. It was a real shame to see Leftwich go down with an ankle injury in his first start with the Falcons, a game in which he was playing pretty damn well for a guy who has barely had time to learn the playbook. What a mess the Falcons are. Also, the Saints should have won this game by a lot more, and they should have scored more points. The NFC South is scrappy and resourceful, but also horribly depleted and banged-up, so if the Saints find a way to consistently produce points on offense, they might still be in the running. Six point wins against train-wreck teams like Atlanta aren't exactly confidence inspiring.
Redskins over Cardinals, 21-19
My Pick: Redskins over Cardinals, 21-10 Emo Pick: Redskins
Yuk. That was one of the ugliest games of football in history. The Redskins now go to New England with one of the phoniest 4-2 records in a while, and they're gonna take a historic beating. Neither team did jack squat in this game. The Skins defense played well enough again and continued to show an improved nack for creating turnovers, but they couldn't muster a pass-rush for jack. The Redskins offense is looking pretty awful right now, a big step backwards for a team that has been struggling to find offensive consistency for the majority of MY LIFE.
Chiefs over Raiders, 12-10
My Pick: Raiders over Chiefs, 10-6 Emo Pick: Raiders
Yuk, another hideous game. I had the spirit of this one nailed, and the Raiders final points total. The Chiefs get another bogus, useless win, and a step closer to the AFC Wild Card discussion. Don't they realize they're just making their conference look bad? Also, in other news, isn't the NFC just a year away from being the better conference? Think about it: the Cowboys, Giants, and Redskins are all fairly young teams that seem to be on the rise, as well as the Cardinals and possibly the 49ers in the NFC West and the Packers and possibly the Vikings in the NFC North. The Bucs aren't young, but they're tough, and the Saints have the same roster they had last year when they were the darling of the NFL. On the other side, the AFC East is in complete disarray under the Patriots, the AFC North is collapsing, and the AFC West is a joke. Give it two or three years and the NFC will be back in the discussion, that's my prediction. Also, who gives a crap about this game?
Bengals over Jets, 38-31
My Pick: Bengals over Jets, 31-24 Emo Pick: Bengals
Another game I absolutely nailed. It's time for a quarterback switch for the Jets, and not because Kellen Clemens is going to improve the offense, but because the Jets are no longer playing for anything this year, and Chad Pennington is not the guy for this franchise. He's thrown killer picks in at least three of their losses this year, and he limits their offense. Pennington will make a very intriguing back-up option for many teams in the NFL, especially now that quarterback depth is right back up there at the top of most teams wish lists, but he's not a starting caliber quarterback anymore. The Bengals put 38 points on the board, despite a relatively weak showing from Carson Palmer, mostly on the strength of a career outing from Kenny Watson. As a Skins fan, I can't help but root for the Bengals when Watson is in the game.
Cowboys over Vikings, 24-14
My Pick: Cowboys over Vikings, 24-14 Emo Pick: Vikings
I don't have much to say about this game, other than that I actually picked the correct winner and the correct final score. The Cowboys came out throwing in this game, and by halftime Romo had completed 28 of 32 pass attempts for 232 yards. The only notable thing I took away from that was the fact that the Cowboys only had 7 points, were losing the game, and were getting fewer than 7 yards per pass attempt. Look, I understand the strategy of throwing versus a team that has a strong run defense and relatively weak secondary, but this was a pathetic, pathetic attempt to execute a lame-brained strategy, and yet another example of the difference between great coaching and great quarterbacks versus NFL coaching and Tony Romo. If Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Jon Kitna, or even Jeff Garcia or Ben Roethlisberger came out and threw 32 passes against the Vikings defense, completing 28 of them, their team would have put at least 21 points on the board and would be in command of the game. Again, that's not putting all the burden on Romo, because the truth is, when great head coaches with good offensive coordinators decide they want to exploit an opponent's suspect pass defense by throwing 32 times in a half, that generally includes a few attempts down the field. You don't just throw the ball because you have a sexy quarterback and you like to pass. In football at every level, the forward pass is intended as a way of quickly striking at the defense and picking up big chunks of yardage. Otherwise, all you're doing is tiring out your offensive line and taking a chance on tossing an interception, to say nothing of the fact that you're risking the health of said sexy quarterback. Notice that the Cowboys outscored the Vikings after they took the ball out of Romo's hands and started using the ground game. Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett, pull your heads out of your asses and get of Romo's jock. He's a good player, but here's a news flash: he's got a hell of a cast around him, maybe you want to use those guys too. Romo, like all other quarterbacks, is a shit-load more effective when his efforts are balanced by a strong running game, and unlike a lot of other good quarterbacks in the NFL, Romo has a pair of very talented players to hand the ball off to, and a giant and mostly healthy offensive line to pave the way.
Bears over Eagles 19-16
My Pick: Eagles over Bears, 27-24 Emo Pick: Eagles
Booooooo. Stick a fork in the Eagles. This Bears defense gave up 34 points to the Vikings, 20 to Green Bay, 37 to Detroit, and 34 to Dallas. The Eagles stink. The Bears keep hanging tough and finding ways to win. Good for them.
Seahawks over Rams, 33-6
My Pick: Seahawks over Rams, 35-10 Emo Pick: Rams
Look how close I was! Holy shit, I was right on the money for most of the games this weekend. The Rams will win a game this year after Stephen Jackson gets back. They're now the only winless team that will have a quality tailback at any point the rest of the way. The Seahawks continue to stink, but they beat up a crappy division opponent, which is what they're supposed to do.
Broncos over Steelers, 31-28
My Pick: Steelers over Broncos, 21-17 Emo Pick: Steelers
Big disappointment for the Steelers, who didn't have any offensive rhythm in this game and couldn't protect Roethlisberger. Jay Cutler played a nice game, I still think he's a good player. The Steelers are no longer in the discussion of elite NFL teams, they're just not very consistent, and they've lost two games against teams they really should have beaten. Honestly, I think the Steelers were looking past the Broncos. I have to say, when I watch Denver play, I have confidence in Shanahan as a play-caller and as a head coach to get his players prepared. I think I'm secretly rooting for the Broncos. Blech.
Colts over Jaguars, 29-7
My Pick: Colts over Jaguars, 21-20 Emo Pick: Colts
This one might've been closer if Garrard doesn't go down with a bum ankle. The Colts continue to win games in unspectacular, professional fashion. I can't get enough of this team. Also, if I were a Colts fan, I'm not sure how many times I could watch Marvin Harrison shy out of bounds after catching a ball with 2 yards between him and the nearest defender. I think Harrison is a terrific player, but it seems to me he leaves yards and big plays out on the field because he doesn't like contact. No, it doesn't just seem to me that way, it is that way. Marvin Harrison leaves yards and big plays on the field by shying away from contact, and it kinda grosses me out a little. It was nice watching Del Rio get reamed at home, even though I find myself rooting for individual Jaguars players, like Maurice Jones-Drew, David Garrard, Fred Taylor, Marcus Stroud, John Henderson, and Mike Peterson. As good a player as Garrard is, the Jags should not be trying to sustain drives by throwing a lot. Garrard is a good game-manager who can make some big plays with his arm and his legs, but the bread and butter of the Jags offense is their running game. Why were they throwing so much, you ask? That's right, bad coaching.
A note or two on NFL action in Week 7 before we review the coaches:
1. It's a little hard to stay excited about this season when so many teams have had injury problems at quarterback. I count no fewer than 14 teams that have had to go the majority of a game or more without their starting quarterback, and we're not even halfway through the season: Minnesota, Atlanta (already an asterisk), Carolina, St. Louis, Arizona, San Francisco, the Jets, Miami, Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Oakland, and there are probably others I'm forgetting. By my count, three of four teams in the NFC West have gone multiple games behind their backups! I think every NFL fan shares a common wish: that a season will come along where every team starts and finishes the year at full strength.
2. I was sick of the Patriots before the season began, not even interested enough in them to dislike them. Then the whole camera deal went down, and I ended up kinda liking them as a villain for a while. After they went out of their way to run it up on a few teams, I maybe fell in love with them a little, especially after the Dallas game. After Week 7, I find myself getting sick of them all over again. I don't think it's really their fault, I actually think I can blame it on the rest of the AFC East. That division is so grossly top-heavy, I get depressed even thinking about it. To me, it's a big shadow over the greatness of the Patriots. Think about this: if the Colts go undefeated this year, they'll have beaten the Patriots, Ravens, and Chargers outside their division, and three AFC Wild Card contending teams inside their division TWICE. On the other hand, the Patriots will have quality wins against the Colts, Steelers, Chargers, Cowboys, and Redskins, but will have had six games against the three worst teams in the entire conference. It's time for the rest of the AFC East to step up, if only for the sake of the juggernaut of their division.
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And now for the coaches:
NFC East
Against all odds, Tom Coughlin is getting the nod for top coach in the NFC East through 7 weeks of football. His Giants are the hottest team in the NFC after winning their fifth straight. They blew out a weak 49ers team behind solid and sometimes spectacular play on both sides of the ball. He's still a turd and I still can't stand the guy, but there's no way I can question the results on the field right now. Grade: A
Wade Phillips is back in second after needing a huge special teams play to get past the Vikings at home. His pass-pass-pass attack in the first half was a joke and made his team look amateurish, but they pulled out the win in the end. After the bye, they've got three straight division match-ups, including two consecutive road games, in New York and in Philly. We'll know a lot more about this team in Week 12. Grade: B-
I guess you have to put Joe Gibbs next, although it was another very shaky outing against the Cardinals. Again the Redskins failed to adjust or improve after halftime, again they almost choked away a halftime lead, and again their inability to open things up nearly doomed them. With a trip to New England looming on Sunday, the Redskins are looking at a brutal pounding if they don't get some things in order. Grade: C+
Andy Reid might have sealed his fate with the last second loss, at home, to the Bears on Sunday. The Eagles can't seem to get it going at all this season, and they're fading fast in the NFC East. Their schedule only gets tougher the rest of the way, they're looking at a long season in Philadelphia. Grade: C-
NFC North
Mike McCarthy gets to keep his spot at the top this week, even though his Packers were on their bye week. They've got five winnable games in a row starting with Week 8 in Denver before they face the Cowboys, so this team could very well have secured a playoff spot by the time they get to that Week 13 matchup. Grade: N/A
This was a tough call, but I'm giving the nod to Lovie Smith over Rod Marinelli. Which of these two coaches has a career win percentage over .500? Which one has gone to a Super Bowl? Smith's Bears traveled to Philadelphia and gutted out another big win behind their backup quarterback. I hope fans in Chicago realize what a great coach they have and support this guy. Grade: B+
It was close for second, but not close for third: Rod Marinelli is the guy. His Lions really needed that victory, and I love the fact that he used the ground game to attack Tampa's defense. I can't help but think that was his influence over Mike Martz's playcalling, who wants to chuck it on every down and doesn't care about the health of his quarterback. The reverse was a great way to get Calvin Johnson involved in the offense, and it paid off. Grade: A
For crying out loud, what the hell is going on with Brad Childress? Again, I have no problem with a platoon at running back, especially when it's been so successful, but Adrian Peterson ripped off a big run right in the beginning of the game, and the Vikings had a lead at halftime, so I can't understand why Peterson only carried the ball 12 times. Seriously, the Vikings aren't surprising anybody with their offense, they ought to stop pretending. The strength of their team is the running game, I see no reason both guys shouldn't have 15-25 carries a game. The Vikings will have to go back to Kelly Holcomb after Tarvaris Jackson broke a finger in his throwing hand Sunday. Grade: D+
NFC South
I think I have to keep Jon Gruden at the top. Nobody did anything to unseat him, and his Bucs shouldn't be TOO discouraged by this loss. They've got to figure out their running game after sustaining a ton of injuries, and these aren't your dad's Lions they fell to on the road. Gruden is one of those coaches that seems to find a way, and their schedule the rest of the way isn't especially tough. Grade: C+
John Fox gets to stay in second place, although now that the Saints have pulled themselves together a bit, he'll have to start looking for Sean Payton in his rearview mirror. The Panthers were off this week, and they really needed it to give Vinny Testaverde more time to learn the offense and for David Carr to get healthy. I still think the Panthers aren't playing for anything this season, but they're playing anyway. Grade: N/A
I expect the Saints to be 4-6 in Week 11, when they head to Houston. Sean Payton has his team playing well enough to win, which is a far cry from where they were a week after their bye, when they stunk out the joint in a home loss to the depleted Panthers. They made their victory over the Falcons look a lot harder than they needed to, and they still have some kinks to work out, but they seem to have found some rhythm, and with a relatively tough road ahead on their schedule, that's a positive. Grade: B-
The Falcons took another hit on Sunday, losing Byron Leftwich to an ugly ankle injury, and that's one more reason for Atlanta's players to give up on Bobby Petrino. This team has very little life left in it, and I think Petrino hosed the one guy on his offense that was giving a decent effort when he benched Joey Harrington. He must be pretty embarrassed to be turning the reigns back over after Sunday's loss. I guess they stayed close to the Saints and made it tough, but New Orleans had only won one game headed into this matchup. Grade: D
NFC West
I'm still looking at Ken Wisenhunt here, even though I thought that roll-out two point conversion try with Anquan Boldin at quarteback was a bad call. His team stuck around and made it close on the road against the Skins, with a banged-up quarterback, and they continue to be a tough, dangerous team. If they can stay healthy, they might make it to the playoffs, but that's a big "if" right now. Grade: C+
Boy is it slim-pickins out west right now. I guess I'll give the nod to Mike Holmgren, who may have been coaching for his job after that debacle against New Orleans. His team stomped on the Rams pretty badly, getting a much needed win at the expense of the garbage of their division. If Holmgren finds a way to coach any kind of consistency other than mediocrity, the Seahawks could very easily steal this weak division for a millionth year in a row. Grade: B
Mike Nolan gets to be third, but it's a close call right now. The 49ers are playing terrible, terrible football on offense, and they don't have the defense to make up for it. They got their asses handed to them in New York on Sunday, and their season is quickly falling apart. Now Frank Gore is questioning the offensive coordinator to the media, and I have to say, though I hate this type of controversy on a team, I'm not sure I disagree with Gore. Nolan needs to get things in order immediately, or the 49ers could be back in the cellar and he could be out of a job in 2008. Grade: D
Scott Linehan probably ought to get used to this. Nothing is going right in St. Louis. Hopefully they get a boost when Stephen Jackson comes back, but I doubt it will be enough to keep them from a 15 loss season or worse. Where's the parity, when two NFL teams may go winless and two NFL teams look like legitimate contenders for undefeated seasons? Grade: D-
AFC East
Of course it's still Bill Belichick. I have nothing else to say about that. Grade: A
Of course it's still Dick Jauron in second. His Bills took it to the Ravens on Sunday. No team is getting more from less than the Bills right now, and they're officially my favorite team that doesn't play in Washington D.C. Wait, the Skins don't even play in Washington D.C. Ok, the Bills are my favorite team that doesn't play in Landover, Maryland. Grade: B+
Yuk. I guess it's Eric "Magina" Mangini. His Jets had a closer margin than the Dolphins. Both coaches stink and have terrible teams. Grade: D-
Another coach who ought to be used to the view from the bottom. Cam Cameron is a bad coach with one of the most hopeless teams in NFL history. Cleo Lemon is playing his butt off, so Cameron gets half a point over Mangina for the week, but he's still the worst Grade: D+
AFC North
I'm going to let Mike Tomlin stay at the top of the AFC North this week, but only because the Browns didn't play and win on Sunday. This is twice now that the Steelers have gone on the road to take on teams they really ought to beat, played poorly, and lost. I have the feeling the Steelers are looking past these teams, and that's a big disappointment, especially coming off of their bye week. They've got some tough games ahead, they need to start playing consistent football. Grade: C-
Hell yes, Romeo Crennell is the second best coach in the division. In the end, he may end up being the best! His Browns were off, and now they've got favorable matchups at the Rams and then hosting the Seahawks, with a real chance to put together their first winning streak of the season before their matchup with the Steelers in week 10. If they take care of business between now and then, they could be playing for the division lead! Grade: N/A
Another sorry selection, but I'm still giving the nod to Brian Billick. His sorry Ravens lost to the Bills in Buffalo, and there are probably some people that think it was a real disappointment. Do I expect the Ravens to hang tough and win some games the rest of the way? Yes. Do I think they're a good team, worthy of a playoff spot? Hell no. I hope the Ravens give Billick a chance to coach through a true rebuilding phase, 'cause they're due. Grade: C-
The Bengals got a pretty ugly win against a hapless Jets team on Sunday, but they'll take it. Marvin Lewis is facing the biggest test of his brief head-coaching career right now, trying to get his team to play with consistency and toughness and get back into the playoff picture. That road starts with beating teams you're supposed to beat, and that's what the Jets are. I said they had a favorable schedule after their bye week, but it doesn't start with Week 8, when they host the Steelers. Good luck, Marvin. Grade: C+
AFC South
Good old Tony Dungy, his Colts just keep on chugging along. They may not be as exciting as the Patriots, but they're just so professional and consistent. That's Tony Dungy in a nutshell. I can't wait for the November 4th showdown. By the way, that was no pushover Jaguars team his Colts decimated on Monday night. The Colts play in the toughest division in the entire NFL, by a wide margin. Grade: A+
There may be no uglier win all season than the one Jeff Fisher's Titans took from the Texans on Sunday. You don't often see a team give up 29 fourth quarter points and win, but the Titans found a way. It wasn't the best showing, but Fisher is a great head coach, and his team continues to nose their way into the playoff discussion. Grade: C+
Jack Del Rio gets to stay in third place, but not by much. He stinks, and his team came out throwing, like morons. No, you know what? Fuck that. His team came out throwing like a bunch of goddamn morons, they took a pounding at home, he does NOT get to stay in third. Thid place goes to Gary Kubiak, the guy whose team did NOT take a pounding at home, the guy who got 29 fourth quarter points with Sage Rosenfels at quarterback and almost took a win. Neither coach looked like Vince Lombardi, but at least Kubiak's team had a pulse down the stretch and a fine strategy. Grade: C-
Jack Del Rio gets to be in last, where the fuck he belongs. Grade: D-
AFC West
Against all odds, Mike Shanahan gets to enjoy top honors this week in the awful, awful AFC West. Look, it's such a crapshoot, one good game can do this kind of thing. The Broncos are within a game of .500 and they did enough to beat a tough Steelers team at home, on another last second Elam field goal. They're three field goals away from being winless, but this win was a lot more meaningful than the ones they stole from Oakland and Buffalo. Grade: B
Lane Kiffin had to drop a spot after losing to the woeful Chiefs at home. It's hard to support any of the coaches in this division. I have a hard time putting anyone in first place, and I have a hard time putting anyone in last place. One good or bad game can swing things dramatically in the AFC West. Grade: D+
I'm forced, FORCED, to put Herm Edwards here. His team has more wins than losses. Also, I just upchucked all over my keyboard. Grade: C+
Well, Norv, you probably belong here anyway. In the AFC West, you're only a win away from being back on top. Grade: N/A
Picks are coming later in the week. A little advanced warning, though: I won't be picking the Redskins.
And without further ado . . .
Bills over Ravens, 19-14
My Pick: Bills over Ravens, 17-12 Emo Pick: Bills
Again, you'd have a hard time getting the final score any closer than that. In my pick, I said only the Bills would get in the endzone, and the Ravens would get four field goals, so I was wrong about something. Here's the truth that was uncovered in this game: Baltimore is not a good football team and they can't score. They still don't have a single explosive player on offense, and the Bills are, without a doubt, the better team. What has happened to the AFC North? All of a sudden Cincinnati and Baltimore are awful teams, and what was once the toughest, deepest division in football is now looking like it'll be lucky to get a wild-card in the playoffs, and that's saying something considering how piss poor the AFC East and West are. Also, Trent Edwards threw another killer pick in this game. Look, at this point, because Dick Jauron said he's the guy, I think you have to stick with him while the Bills are winning, but Edwards isn't doing anything Losman can't do, and he also isn't doing anything Losman does do, like look down the field and challenge the secondary. I'm quite certain Losman is the better player, and I'd be thrilled if he got the starting job back.
Giants over 49ers, 33-15
My Pick: Giants over 49ers, 31-17 Emo Pick: 49ers
Look how close I was on the final score! Man, I was riding high on Sunday. Eli Manning did enough to win this game ugly, but somehow the Giants won it by 18 points. I think that has a lot to do with how terrible and depressing the 49ers are. Their offensive line got shredded by the Giants front four and Trent Dilfer continues to show how limited he is when he isn't playing behind a top-notch line and a dominant running game. The 49ers are fading fast, and I have a hard time believing the return of Alex Smith is going to make the difference. The way I see it, this team needs another off-season of work on their line, some receiver upgrades, and for Smith and Vernon Davis to develop some chemistry. The Giants are the hottest team in the NFC right now and are closing the gap between themselves and the Cowboys, play-wise, to the point that the Cowboys aren't the mortal lock to win the NFC East many thought they were a few weeks ago.
Patriots over Dolphins, 49-28
My Pick: Patriots over Dolphins, 31-6 Emo Pick: Patriots
I was enjoying this blow-out until Ronnie Brown went down with a torn ACL. I've got no love for the Dolphins, but Ronnie Brown was having a break-out year, and that's a hell of an injury and a terrible shame. The Dolphins were pretty openly tanking their season after trading Chambers, but now they've got to be seriously considering the likelihood that they may not win a game. It's very possible that Dolphins fans will be mourning a winless season in week 17 while they watch, Sunday night, to see if the Patriots will be the first team since Miami's 1972 squad to go undefeated through the regular season. I have to think that would be a major embarrassment for the Miami franchise, and I wouldn't expect Cam Cameron to survive it, nor would I expect Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas, or about 15 other guys who can no longer help the Dolphins win games.
Titans over Texans, 38-36
My Pick: Titans over Texans, 24-21 Emo Pick: Titans
I almost got the final margin in this one, but I was way off when it comes to the spirit of the game. I thought both offenses would be successful but conservative, and I thought the game would be close because neither team would be able to pull away, and I was wrong on both counts. Neither team can feel real good walking away from this one, not after the Texans lost a home game to the Titans, who were playing without their franchise quarterback, and the Titans gave up 29 points in the fourth quarter. I guess winning a division road game with your backup quarterback is something to be proud of, but let's not forget that Houston went most of the game without their franchise quarterback as well, and Parsley Sage Rose(mary)nfels & Thyme isn't exactly Steve Young coming off the bench.
Lions over Bucs, 23-16
My Pick: Lions over Bucs 28-17 Emo Pick: Lions
I'm not making this stuff up! Go check my picks from last week! It was nice to see Calvin Johnson make a play in this game, and he looked great doing it. Kevin Jones had a nice game, too, and I think Rod Marinelli may have put his foot down in the off week and insisted that the Lions work on establishing the ground game. They sure have the pieces for it. Kevin Jones is a quality back, and Tatum Bell and T. J. Duckett off the bench are two of the better backups in the NFL. They really ought to run the ball successfully each week. I was wrong about Jeff Garcia throwing a pick in this game, but he did lose two fumbles, and I think the injuries at tailback finally caught up to the Bucs. The Lions are a fast defense, but they aren't especially big or strong and healthy teams ought to be able to run on them. The Lions hold on to their post-season hopes for a week longer. Good for them.
Saints over Falcons, 22-16
My Pick: Saints over Falcons, 16-13 Emo Pick: Saints
I may not have nailed the final score on this one, but I still feel I had this one pegged. It was a real shame to see Leftwich go down with an ankle injury in his first start with the Falcons, a game in which he was playing pretty damn well for a guy who has barely had time to learn the playbook. What a mess the Falcons are. Also, the Saints should have won this game by a lot more, and they should have scored more points. The NFC South is scrappy and resourceful, but also horribly depleted and banged-up, so if the Saints find a way to consistently produce points on offense, they might still be in the running. Six point wins against train-wreck teams like Atlanta aren't exactly confidence inspiring.
Redskins over Cardinals, 21-19
My Pick: Redskins over Cardinals, 21-10 Emo Pick: Redskins
Yuk. That was one of the ugliest games of football in history. The Redskins now go to New England with one of the phoniest 4-2 records in a while, and they're gonna take a historic beating. Neither team did jack squat in this game. The Skins defense played well enough again and continued to show an improved nack for creating turnovers, but they couldn't muster a pass-rush for jack. The Redskins offense is looking pretty awful right now, a big step backwards for a team that has been struggling to find offensive consistency for the majority of MY LIFE.
Chiefs over Raiders, 12-10
My Pick: Raiders over Chiefs, 10-6 Emo Pick: Raiders
Yuk, another hideous game. I had the spirit of this one nailed, and the Raiders final points total. The Chiefs get another bogus, useless win, and a step closer to the AFC Wild Card discussion. Don't they realize they're just making their conference look bad? Also, in other news, isn't the NFC just a year away from being the better conference? Think about it: the Cowboys, Giants, and Redskins are all fairly young teams that seem to be on the rise, as well as the Cardinals and possibly the 49ers in the NFC West and the Packers and possibly the Vikings in the NFC North. The Bucs aren't young, but they're tough, and the Saints have the same roster they had last year when they were the darling of the NFL. On the other side, the AFC East is in complete disarray under the Patriots, the AFC North is collapsing, and the AFC West is a joke. Give it two or three years and the NFC will be back in the discussion, that's my prediction. Also, who gives a crap about this game?
Bengals over Jets, 38-31
My Pick: Bengals over Jets, 31-24 Emo Pick: Bengals
Another game I absolutely nailed. It's time for a quarterback switch for the Jets, and not because Kellen Clemens is going to improve the offense, but because the Jets are no longer playing for anything this year, and Chad Pennington is not the guy for this franchise. He's thrown killer picks in at least three of their losses this year, and he limits their offense. Pennington will make a very intriguing back-up option for many teams in the NFL, especially now that quarterback depth is right back up there at the top of most teams wish lists, but he's not a starting caliber quarterback anymore. The Bengals put 38 points on the board, despite a relatively weak showing from Carson Palmer, mostly on the strength of a career outing from Kenny Watson. As a Skins fan, I can't help but root for the Bengals when Watson is in the game.
Cowboys over Vikings, 24-14
My Pick: Cowboys over Vikings, 24-14 Emo Pick: Vikings
I don't have much to say about this game, other than that I actually picked the correct winner and the correct final score. The Cowboys came out throwing in this game, and by halftime Romo had completed 28 of 32 pass attempts for 232 yards. The only notable thing I took away from that was the fact that the Cowboys only had 7 points, were losing the game, and were getting fewer than 7 yards per pass attempt. Look, I understand the strategy of throwing versus a team that has a strong run defense and relatively weak secondary, but this was a pathetic, pathetic attempt to execute a lame-brained strategy, and yet another example of the difference between great coaching and great quarterbacks versus NFL coaching and Tony Romo. If Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Jon Kitna, or even Jeff Garcia or Ben Roethlisberger came out and threw 32 passes against the Vikings defense, completing 28 of them, their team would have put at least 21 points on the board and would be in command of the game. Again, that's not putting all the burden on Romo, because the truth is, when great head coaches with good offensive coordinators decide they want to exploit an opponent's suspect pass defense by throwing 32 times in a half, that generally includes a few attempts down the field. You don't just throw the ball because you have a sexy quarterback and you like to pass. In football at every level, the forward pass is intended as a way of quickly striking at the defense and picking up big chunks of yardage. Otherwise, all you're doing is tiring out your offensive line and taking a chance on tossing an interception, to say nothing of the fact that you're risking the health of said sexy quarterback. Notice that the Cowboys outscored the Vikings after they took the ball out of Romo's hands and started using the ground game. Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett, pull your heads out of your asses and get of Romo's jock. He's a good player, but here's a news flash: he's got a hell of a cast around him, maybe you want to use those guys too. Romo, like all other quarterbacks, is a shit-load more effective when his efforts are balanced by a strong running game, and unlike a lot of other good quarterbacks in the NFL, Romo has a pair of very talented players to hand the ball off to, and a giant and mostly healthy offensive line to pave the way.
Bears over Eagles 19-16
My Pick: Eagles over Bears, 27-24 Emo Pick: Eagles
Booooooo. Stick a fork in the Eagles. This Bears defense gave up 34 points to the Vikings, 20 to Green Bay, 37 to Detroit, and 34 to Dallas. The Eagles stink. The Bears keep hanging tough and finding ways to win. Good for them.
Seahawks over Rams, 33-6
My Pick: Seahawks over Rams, 35-10 Emo Pick: Rams
Look how close I was! Holy shit, I was right on the money for most of the games this weekend. The Rams will win a game this year after Stephen Jackson gets back. They're now the only winless team that will have a quality tailback at any point the rest of the way. The Seahawks continue to stink, but they beat up a crappy division opponent, which is what they're supposed to do.
Broncos over Steelers, 31-28
My Pick: Steelers over Broncos, 21-17 Emo Pick: Steelers
Big disappointment for the Steelers, who didn't have any offensive rhythm in this game and couldn't protect Roethlisberger. Jay Cutler played a nice game, I still think he's a good player. The Steelers are no longer in the discussion of elite NFL teams, they're just not very consistent, and they've lost two games against teams they really should have beaten. Honestly, I think the Steelers were looking past the Broncos. I have to say, when I watch Denver play, I have confidence in Shanahan as a play-caller and as a head coach to get his players prepared. I think I'm secretly rooting for the Broncos. Blech.
Colts over Jaguars, 29-7
My Pick: Colts over Jaguars, 21-20 Emo Pick: Colts
This one might've been closer if Garrard doesn't go down with a bum ankle. The Colts continue to win games in unspectacular, professional fashion. I can't get enough of this team. Also, if I were a Colts fan, I'm not sure how many times I could watch Marvin Harrison shy out of bounds after catching a ball with 2 yards between him and the nearest defender. I think Harrison is a terrific player, but it seems to me he leaves yards and big plays out on the field because he doesn't like contact. No, it doesn't just seem to me that way, it is that way. Marvin Harrison leaves yards and big plays on the field by shying away from contact, and it kinda grosses me out a little. It was nice watching Del Rio get reamed at home, even though I find myself rooting for individual Jaguars players, like Maurice Jones-Drew, David Garrard, Fred Taylor, Marcus Stroud, John Henderson, and Mike Peterson. As good a player as Garrard is, the Jags should not be trying to sustain drives by throwing a lot. Garrard is a good game-manager who can make some big plays with his arm and his legs, but the bread and butter of the Jags offense is their running game. Why were they throwing so much, you ask? That's right, bad coaching.
A note or two on NFL action in Week 7 before we review the coaches:
1. It's a little hard to stay excited about this season when so many teams have had injury problems at quarterback. I count no fewer than 14 teams that have had to go the majority of a game or more without their starting quarterback, and we're not even halfway through the season: Minnesota, Atlanta (already an asterisk), Carolina, St. Louis, Arizona, San Francisco, the Jets, Miami, Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Oakland, and there are probably others I'm forgetting. By my count, three of four teams in the NFC West have gone multiple games behind their backups! I think every NFL fan shares a common wish: that a season will come along where every team starts and finishes the year at full strength.
2. I was sick of the Patriots before the season began, not even interested enough in them to dislike them. Then the whole camera deal went down, and I ended up kinda liking them as a villain for a while. After they went out of their way to run it up on a few teams, I maybe fell in love with them a little, especially after the Dallas game. After Week 7, I find myself getting sick of them all over again. I don't think it's really their fault, I actually think I can blame it on the rest of the AFC East. That division is so grossly top-heavy, I get depressed even thinking about it. To me, it's a big shadow over the greatness of the Patriots. Think about this: if the Colts go undefeated this year, they'll have beaten the Patriots, Ravens, and Chargers outside their division, and three AFC Wild Card contending teams inside their division TWICE. On the other hand, the Patriots will have quality wins against the Colts, Steelers, Chargers, Cowboys, and Redskins, but will have had six games against the three worst teams in the entire conference. It's time for the rest of the AFC East to step up, if only for the sake of the juggernaut of their division.
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And now for the coaches:
NFC East
Against all odds, Tom Coughlin is getting the nod for top coach in the NFC East through 7 weeks of football. His Giants are the hottest team in the NFC after winning their fifth straight. They blew out a weak 49ers team behind solid and sometimes spectacular play on both sides of the ball. He's still a turd and I still can't stand the guy, but there's no way I can question the results on the field right now. Grade: A
Wade Phillips is back in second after needing a huge special teams play to get past the Vikings at home. His pass-pass-pass attack in the first half was a joke and made his team look amateurish, but they pulled out the win in the end. After the bye, they've got three straight division match-ups, including two consecutive road games, in New York and in Philly. We'll know a lot more about this team in Week 12. Grade: B-
I guess you have to put Joe Gibbs next, although it was another very shaky outing against the Cardinals. Again the Redskins failed to adjust or improve after halftime, again they almost choked away a halftime lead, and again their inability to open things up nearly doomed them. With a trip to New England looming on Sunday, the Redskins are looking at a brutal pounding if they don't get some things in order. Grade: C+
Andy Reid might have sealed his fate with the last second loss, at home, to the Bears on Sunday. The Eagles can't seem to get it going at all this season, and they're fading fast in the NFC East. Their schedule only gets tougher the rest of the way, they're looking at a long season in Philadelphia. Grade: C-
NFC North
Mike McCarthy gets to keep his spot at the top this week, even though his Packers were on their bye week. They've got five winnable games in a row starting with Week 8 in Denver before they face the Cowboys, so this team could very well have secured a playoff spot by the time they get to that Week 13 matchup. Grade: N/A
This was a tough call, but I'm giving the nod to Lovie Smith over Rod Marinelli. Which of these two coaches has a career win percentage over .500? Which one has gone to a Super Bowl? Smith's Bears traveled to Philadelphia and gutted out another big win behind their backup quarterback. I hope fans in Chicago realize what a great coach they have and support this guy. Grade: B+
It was close for second, but not close for third: Rod Marinelli is the guy. His Lions really needed that victory, and I love the fact that he used the ground game to attack Tampa's defense. I can't help but think that was his influence over Mike Martz's playcalling, who wants to chuck it on every down and doesn't care about the health of his quarterback. The reverse was a great way to get Calvin Johnson involved in the offense, and it paid off. Grade: A
For crying out loud, what the hell is going on with Brad Childress? Again, I have no problem with a platoon at running back, especially when it's been so successful, but Adrian Peterson ripped off a big run right in the beginning of the game, and the Vikings had a lead at halftime, so I can't understand why Peterson only carried the ball 12 times. Seriously, the Vikings aren't surprising anybody with their offense, they ought to stop pretending. The strength of their team is the running game, I see no reason both guys shouldn't have 15-25 carries a game. The Vikings will have to go back to Kelly Holcomb after Tarvaris Jackson broke a finger in his throwing hand Sunday. Grade: D+
NFC South
I think I have to keep Jon Gruden at the top. Nobody did anything to unseat him, and his Bucs shouldn't be TOO discouraged by this loss. They've got to figure out their running game after sustaining a ton of injuries, and these aren't your dad's Lions they fell to on the road. Gruden is one of those coaches that seems to find a way, and their schedule the rest of the way isn't especially tough. Grade: C+
John Fox gets to stay in second place, although now that the Saints have pulled themselves together a bit, he'll have to start looking for Sean Payton in his rearview mirror. The Panthers were off this week, and they really needed it to give Vinny Testaverde more time to learn the offense and for David Carr to get healthy. I still think the Panthers aren't playing for anything this season, but they're playing anyway. Grade: N/A
I expect the Saints to be 4-6 in Week 11, when they head to Houston. Sean Payton has his team playing well enough to win, which is a far cry from where they were a week after their bye, when they stunk out the joint in a home loss to the depleted Panthers. They made their victory over the Falcons look a lot harder than they needed to, and they still have some kinks to work out, but they seem to have found some rhythm, and with a relatively tough road ahead on their schedule, that's a positive. Grade: B-
The Falcons took another hit on Sunday, losing Byron Leftwich to an ugly ankle injury, and that's one more reason for Atlanta's players to give up on Bobby Petrino. This team has very little life left in it, and I think Petrino hosed the one guy on his offense that was giving a decent effort when he benched Joey Harrington. He must be pretty embarrassed to be turning the reigns back over after Sunday's loss. I guess they stayed close to the Saints and made it tough, but New Orleans had only won one game headed into this matchup. Grade: D
NFC West
I'm still looking at Ken Wisenhunt here, even though I thought that roll-out two point conversion try with Anquan Boldin at quarteback was a bad call. His team stuck around and made it close on the road against the Skins, with a banged-up quarterback, and they continue to be a tough, dangerous team. If they can stay healthy, they might make it to the playoffs, but that's a big "if" right now. Grade: C+
Boy is it slim-pickins out west right now. I guess I'll give the nod to Mike Holmgren, who may have been coaching for his job after that debacle against New Orleans. His team stomped on the Rams pretty badly, getting a much needed win at the expense of the garbage of their division. If Holmgren finds a way to coach any kind of consistency other than mediocrity, the Seahawks could very easily steal this weak division for a millionth year in a row. Grade: B
Mike Nolan gets to be third, but it's a close call right now. The 49ers are playing terrible, terrible football on offense, and they don't have the defense to make up for it. They got their asses handed to them in New York on Sunday, and their season is quickly falling apart. Now Frank Gore is questioning the offensive coordinator to the media, and I have to say, though I hate this type of controversy on a team, I'm not sure I disagree with Gore. Nolan needs to get things in order immediately, or the 49ers could be back in the cellar and he could be out of a job in 2008. Grade: D
Scott Linehan probably ought to get used to this. Nothing is going right in St. Louis. Hopefully they get a boost when Stephen Jackson comes back, but I doubt it will be enough to keep them from a 15 loss season or worse. Where's the parity, when two NFL teams may go winless and two NFL teams look like legitimate contenders for undefeated seasons? Grade: D-
AFC East
Of course it's still Bill Belichick. I have nothing else to say about that. Grade: A
Of course it's still Dick Jauron in second. His Bills took it to the Ravens on Sunday. No team is getting more from less than the Bills right now, and they're officially my favorite team that doesn't play in Washington D.C. Wait, the Skins don't even play in Washington D.C. Ok, the Bills are my favorite team that doesn't play in Landover, Maryland. Grade: B+
Yuk. I guess it's Eric "Magina" Mangini. His Jets had a closer margin than the Dolphins. Both coaches stink and have terrible teams. Grade: D-
Another coach who ought to be used to the view from the bottom. Cam Cameron is a bad coach with one of the most hopeless teams in NFL history. Cleo Lemon is playing his butt off, so Cameron gets half a point over Mangina for the week, but he's still the worst Grade: D+
AFC North
I'm going to let Mike Tomlin stay at the top of the AFC North this week, but only because the Browns didn't play and win on Sunday. This is twice now that the Steelers have gone on the road to take on teams they really ought to beat, played poorly, and lost. I have the feeling the Steelers are looking past these teams, and that's a big disappointment, especially coming off of their bye week. They've got some tough games ahead, they need to start playing consistent football. Grade: C-
Hell yes, Romeo Crennell is the second best coach in the division. In the end, he may end up being the best! His Browns were off, and now they've got favorable matchups at the Rams and then hosting the Seahawks, with a real chance to put together their first winning streak of the season before their matchup with the Steelers in week 10. If they take care of business between now and then, they could be playing for the division lead! Grade: N/A
Another sorry selection, but I'm still giving the nod to Brian Billick. His sorry Ravens lost to the Bills in Buffalo, and there are probably some people that think it was a real disappointment. Do I expect the Ravens to hang tough and win some games the rest of the way? Yes. Do I think they're a good team, worthy of a playoff spot? Hell no. I hope the Ravens give Billick a chance to coach through a true rebuilding phase, 'cause they're due. Grade: C-
The Bengals got a pretty ugly win against a hapless Jets team on Sunday, but they'll take it. Marvin Lewis is facing the biggest test of his brief head-coaching career right now, trying to get his team to play with consistency and toughness and get back into the playoff picture. That road starts with beating teams you're supposed to beat, and that's what the Jets are. I said they had a favorable schedule after their bye week, but it doesn't start with Week 8, when they host the Steelers. Good luck, Marvin. Grade: C+
AFC South
Good old Tony Dungy, his Colts just keep on chugging along. They may not be as exciting as the Patriots, but they're just so professional and consistent. That's Tony Dungy in a nutshell. I can't wait for the November 4th showdown. By the way, that was no pushover Jaguars team his Colts decimated on Monday night. The Colts play in the toughest division in the entire NFL, by a wide margin. Grade: A+
There may be no uglier win all season than the one Jeff Fisher's Titans took from the Texans on Sunday. You don't often see a team give up 29 fourth quarter points and win, but the Titans found a way. It wasn't the best showing, but Fisher is a great head coach, and his team continues to nose their way into the playoff discussion. Grade: C+
Jack Del Rio gets to stay in third place, but not by much. He stinks, and his team came out throwing, like morons. No, you know what? Fuck that. His team came out throwing like a bunch of goddamn morons, they took a pounding at home, he does NOT get to stay in third. Thid place goes to Gary Kubiak, the guy whose team did NOT take a pounding at home, the guy who got 29 fourth quarter points with Sage Rosenfels at quarterback and almost took a win. Neither coach looked like Vince Lombardi, but at least Kubiak's team had a pulse down the stretch and a fine strategy. Grade: C-
Jack Del Rio gets to be in last, where the fuck he belongs. Grade: D-
AFC West
Against all odds, Mike Shanahan gets to enjoy top honors this week in the awful, awful AFC West. Look, it's such a crapshoot, one good game can do this kind of thing. The Broncos are within a game of .500 and they did enough to beat a tough Steelers team at home, on another last second Elam field goal. They're three field goals away from being winless, but this win was a lot more meaningful than the ones they stole from Oakland and Buffalo. Grade: B
Lane Kiffin had to drop a spot after losing to the woeful Chiefs at home. It's hard to support any of the coaches in this division. I have a hard time putting anyone in first place, and I have a hard time putting anyone in last place. One good or bad game can swing things dramatically in the AFC West. Grade: D+
I'm forced, FORCED, to put Herm Edwards here. His team has more wins than losses. Also, I just upchucked all over my keyboard. Grade: C+
Well, Norv, you probably belong here anyway. In the AFC West, you're only a win away from being back on top. Grade: N/A
Picks are coming later in the week. A little advanced warning, though: I won't be picking the Redskins.
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