I really took it on the chin on Sunday, picks-wise. This is the time of the year when most people (myself included) are generally nailing their picks. Why? Because by now we usually have a pretty good sense of who is good and who is lousy, and we're able to predict more accurately what kind of effect certain injuries will have on certain teams, based on observations we've made during 12 weeks of football. That's what makes the following picks so incredibly puzzling:
Houston (5-6, on the road) over Jacksonville (6-5)
Atlanta (6-5, without Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and 2-3 linemen) over Philadelphia (6-4)
San Francisco (5-6, on the road) over Seattle (4-7)
Houston? Really? With so many home underdogs, I took the 5-6 Texans to win in Jacksonville against the favored 6-5 Jaguars. And how about that Atlanta pick? Atlanta's whole offense was in street clothing, and I picked them over the favored 6-4 Eagles. Why, again? Because they were at home and "Chris Redman isn't so bad"? Indefensible.
And I should have known San Francisco would come up lame in Seattle. Most teams under-perform there, and there's a reason the Niners are now 2 games below .500.
Those are moron picks. I am a moron. Never ever place any bets based on anything I predict in this blog.
And now, let's review:
Jets over Bills, 19-13
My Pick: Jets over Bills, 17-14
Meh. Close enough. I said what I had to say about this in my last post.
Broncos over Chiefs, 44-13
My Pick: Broncos over Chiefs, 24-21
Hey, how 'bout that Matt Cassell fella?
Raiders over Steelers, 27-24
My Pick: Steelers over Raiders, 28-9
Wow. The Steelers are crap. And had I known at the time that they'd subsequently go out and lose to the Browns, there's no way I would have picked them to beat the Raiders (who, by that time, had already beaten the Steelers, since it'd be week 14). So, because the Steelers lost two in a row, to Oakland and Cleveland, and because the Raiders had shown their mettle by going into Pittsburgh and beating the Steelers, I would have felt perfectly comfortable going back in time to pick the Raiders in this game. Knowing, as I would, that they'd already won the game.
Jaguars over Texans, 23-18
My Pick: Texans over Jaguars, 34-24
Hooray for awfully designed trick plays in which your quarterback pitches your season to your tailback, who then throws your season away. Awesome.
Colts over Titans, 27-17
My Pick: Colts over Titans, 33-27
It was not the shoot-out I had hoped. The Colts still have their mojo, the ability to ruthlessly stomp the spark of life out of frisky division opponents.
Eagles over Falcons, 34-7
My Pick: Falcons over Eagles, 28-23
Wow. Yeesh. Yowza. Fuckin' Falcons didn't belong on the same field. Hell, they barely belonged in the same sport.
I can still give the Falcons a pass for this, even though I pretty stupidly went off in the other direction in my picks, suggesting the Falcons were still a competitive team with all of their injuries. The fact is, the Eagles are a shitload better than Atlanta's subs. Atlanta's just trying to scrape their way to the end of the season and find a way to get healthy before 2010.
Bengals over Lions, 23-13
My Pick: Bengals over Lions, 31-13
The Bengals are going to make the playoffs, and that's a significant achievement for this franchise. I'm happy for them. At this point, it's easy to look at this kind of win and just chalk up another "w", tell yourself this is the kind of game they have to win, when they don't put up a lot of points but their defense dominates and they win what is essentially a totally forgettable, unspectacular game versus a lesser opponent.
But don't you feel like pretty much every win the Bengals have had this season has been about the same? Sooner or later, if they want to actually win in the playoffs, they're going to have to gain some confidence in their offense. See, you can and will win some playoff games with just your defense. But teams that don't have confidence in their offense tend to go into a shell in the post-season, and as soon as they get behind by a few scores, the buzzards start a-circlin'. You need confidence in your offense, you need some rhythm, headed into the playoffs. The Bengals have weapons, so there's still hope. But you have to be able to put up more than 23 against an overmatched Lions team with a dismal defense. Just sayin'.
Saints over Redskins, 33-30
My Pick: Redskins over Saints, 27-23
I should have had this motherfucker. Laron Landry and Shaun Suisham conspired to yank it away from me.
I'm a little bitter today. I like the Saints a little bit less than I did last week. It's not right that the undefeated team gets every single motherfucking break in a contest against a down-and-out underdog. The classy thing to do would have been for Drew Brees or someone to hand the ball to a Redskins defender, shake his hand, congratulate him on the upset, then get on the fucking bus and go home. Sometime after Suisham missed the field goal. "Look, we've gotten every possible break in this game, at this point, we should probably be arrested if we win this game. Let's let the little guy have it." Why can't we live in that world? It's like me playing one on one hoops against a 6 year old, only he's outplaying the shit out of me, but every time he goes up for a game-winning layup, he gets struck by lightning. I can't take that win! It's bullshit!
So yeah. Fuck the Saints. Fuck the Saints, fuck karma, and motherfuck chance. I should be celebrating a brilliant pick today, not bitterly lamenting what might have been.
Panthers over Bucs, 16-6
My Pick: Panthers over Bucs, 20-14
You see how fucked up I've been with my picks? Even when I got one right, I wasn't really all that close. I was off. I'm finishing this season poorly.
Bears over Rams, 17-9
My Pick: Bears over Rams, 30-17
See? SEE?
Hey, you know what's more pathetic than these awful, incredibly screwed Bears? LOSING to the Bears.
Chargers over Cleveland, 30-23
My Pick: Chargers over Cleveland, 34-10
That effort will not do against the Cowboys. Toughen up, Chargers. We're counting on you to flatten the 'Boys and send them a little farther down the drain.
Seahawks over 49ers, 20-17
My Pick: 49ers over Seahawks, 24-17
Booooooooooooooooooooo.
Cardinals over Vikings, 30-17
My Pick: Vikings over Cardinals, 28-27
Kurt Warner is, and always has been, a much better quarterback than Brett Favre. Numbers support this. Results support this. By almost any measure other than durability, Kurt Warner is superior to Brett Favre. But most importantly, Kurt Warner went out and pissed all over an elite Vikings defense Monday night in a huge conference game, whereas the real Brett Favre stood up and dropped a deuce all over his own team.
So there. I know it may sound weird, but Kurt Warner is better than Brett Favre. Is and always has been.
Now, some seriously quick week 14 picks (obviously I missed Thursday night's game):
Denver @ Indianapolis
The Line: Indianapolis by 6.5
Keep it up, Colts!
Colts over Broncos, 24-20
Cincinnati @ Minnesota
The Line: Minnesota by 6
Should be a good game. I'm not sure Cincy has enough on offense to win at Minnesota, though.
Vikings over Bengals, 21-16
New York Jets @ Tampa Bay
The Line: New York Jets by 3.5
Our first road favorite, and it's the crummy Jets on the road with Kellen Clemens at quarterback.
Oh man, I'm tempted to pick the Bucs.
Ahhhhhhhh! Can't do it.
Jets over Bucs, 20-17
Buffalo @ Kansas City
The Line: Buffalo by 2.5
Another road favorite, and it's the crummy Bills on the road with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. What is the world coming to?
I really don't know what to do with this game.
Uhhhhh . . . Bills win!
Bills over Chiefs, 17-13
Green By @ Chicago
The Line: Green Bay by 4
Isn't it about time for another Green Bay disappointment? I think it is. Just when they seem to have figured it all out, Gay Cutler and the Bores go out and steal one away from them.
Yep. Sounds about right.
Bears over Packers, 27-23
New Orleans @ Atlanta
The Line: New Orleans by 10
Saints win.
Saints over Falcons, 31-14
Detroit @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 14
Yep. Not too confident in a disgruntled Daunte Culpepper against a desperate Ravens team in the rain in Baltimore.
Ravens over Lions, 23-10
Miami @ Jacksonville
The Line: Jacksonville by 2
It's impossible to predict this game. Anything could happen.
Jaguars over Dolphins, 43-41
Carolina @ New England
The Line: New England by 13
Yep. Matt Moore, meet the scum-of-the-earth schoolyard bully and all his loser friends.
Patriots over Panthers, 77-3
Seattle @ Houston
The Line: Houston by 7
Whatever.
Texans over Seahawks, 27-20
St. Louis @ Tennessee
The Line: Tennessee by 13
I say again: whatever.
Titans over Rams, 24-13
Washington @ Oakland
The Line: Washington by 2
Washington, favored on the road? This season? No. No no no. Terrible. Hate to do it, but Oakland now has to win.
Raiders over Redskins, 24-20
San Diego @ Dallas
The Line: Dallas by 3.5
And just to make sure the Cowboys find a way (to lose), I'm picking them in a landslide. And, AND, I'm rooting for them. GOOOOOOOOOOO COWBOYS!!
Cowboys over Chargers, 44-9
Philadelphia @ New York Giants
The Line: Philadelphia by 1
Can't do it. Can't pick the Eagles on the road at New York. Just can't.
Giants over Eagles, 28-27
Arizona @ San Francisco
The Line: Arizona by 3.5
I'm ready to believe in the Cardinals. They need to win this game and look good doing it.
Cardinals over 49ers, 27-21
That's it! With 39 minutes to spare!
Go Skynards!
Monday, December 7, 2009
Friday, December 4, 2009
Moar NFL Pleez
The Jets and Their Embarrassing Head Coach
"I don't expect much from Rex Ryan's tenure in New York. Why? First, his dad was a crap head coach, and those Ryan boys effing worship their dad. Secondly, he's far too much of a player's coach. Third, he's all ga-ga over the media attention that comes from being a head coach, and I hate that crap. Fourth, some guys just don't have it as game-managers, and Ryan strikes me as one of those guys. Some of the most important stuff a head-coach does takes place in those time-sensitive down-and-distance moments in critical points in close games, and those are moments when your head has to be into the situation. I believe Ryan is a smart enough guy. The problem? The vast, overwhelming majority of those make-or-break moments happen when your offense is on the field, and I flat do not believe Ryan is a cerebral enough guy to be sharp on his offense in those moments."
I, Nostradamus Jr., wrote that in my NFL Preview way back when. History will remember that as one of the all-time greatest paragraphs, and here's why: in the past few weeks, I think everyone is starting to realize what an incredibly dismal head coach Rex Ryan is.
His clock and game management has already been sketchy this season, in close losses to Jacksonville, Buffalo, and twice to Miami. He's not a game manager. He's just not. In games decided by less than 6 points, the Jets are 0-4, and in each of those losses, time-outs, playcalling, and game-management played a role in undermining any chance the Jets may have had down the stretch. Twice in that stretch, against Buffalo and Jacksonville, his team had burned all three time-outs before their final possession of the game. In the second loss to Miami, he stubbornly refused to use his time-outs before his team's final possession, which, incidentally, started with less than a minute on the clock. He's a buffoon.
Last week, Ryan made the embarrassing, inexplicable, lame-brained, and ultimately useless decision to have Joe Girardi come teach his quarterback how to slide. First of all, if Ryan had his rookie quarterback spend anything more than 15 seconds working with the manager of the Yankees on a baseball move during a game week, he should be fired today. Second of all, you don't need a baseball player or coach or even a fan to teach a guy how to slide. Does Kellen Clemens know how to slide in a football game? Yes? Okay, there's your teacher. Getting Girardi to do it is a publicity stunt, a bald-faced, embarrassingly pathetic attention grab by a guy who's now developed a reputation for grabbing attention at every possible opportunity.
Now, is it important that Mark Sanchez get comfortable with the idea of sliding in certain situations? Probably. Quarterbacks, for the most part, are around to pass the ball down the field. Occasionally, a reasonably athletic quarterback may take an opportunity to gain some yards with his legs. The great Joe Montana made famous his belief that any time a quarterback can pick up yardage, particularly a first down, and get to the sideline, he should take off and run for the sideline, without thinking twice. I like that idea; it makes the quarterback dangerous and it adds another dimension to your offense, while protecting your quarterback's health. Especially athletic quarterbacks may take it a step further by running up field and picking up tough yards in traffic. I'm not sure Mark Sanchez is especially athletic, but he's young, anyway, and certainly fits into the middle group (he's a reasonably athletic guy who can pick up the occasional first down with his legs). Because he's not Vince Young or Michael Vick or even Alex Smith, he should probably get comfortable with the idea of protecting his health to the extent possible. In short, yes, he should know how to slide.
On Sunday, in a division contest, on the road, with their season still there for the salvaging, Mark Sanchez took off on third down and headed for first down yardage. He got close, guys closed in on him, he ducked low and lunged forward for the last yard, absorbed moderate contact while successfully converting the first down, and was hurt. For some absurd reason, Rex Ryan stood before the national media and said that was a bad idea.
Frankly, I don't know what to make of a head coach who says a player on the field in position to pick up a key first down in a key game should think of his health before and above the team's goal of keeping the ball. It's not like Sanchez was out there shucking and jiving, going over the top of a pile or busting a spin move. The guy lowered his head, ducked his shoulder, tucked the ball, and more or less dove straight for the ground. That's about as routine a play as there is in football. Any quarterback worth a damn makes that play 100 times out of 100. Can you imagine how you'd feel about a rookie quarterback in that situation sliding to a stop a yard short of a first down, and then explaining it off as him just preserving his health? I would almost immediately write that player off as a potential NFL franchise quarterback.
So let's take a bigger look at Rex Ryan's tenure as a head coach, short though it may yet be. He's a ham; his team loses close games; he doesn't know how to manage the clock; he spends practice week time grabbing publicity instead of working on the game-plan; he boo-hoos the referees and opposing coaches when he loses; he wants his rookie quarterback to think of his health before making a routine (albeit heroic) play to keep a drive alive; and he's willing to criticize him for it to the media.
I'm sticking to my guns here; Rex Ryan is not at all cut out to be a head coach. This is all part of a bigger picture. He does not understand game situations well enough to make intelligent decisions about managing a game. Burning time-outs in a close game is an example. Holding onto time-outs when your defense is on the field so your offense can use them on the final drive but failing to realize that your offense may not have enough time left on the clock to make use of the time-outs is another obvious one. Coaching your young quarterback to think of his health before making a gutsy-but-routine play to keep a drive alive in a division contest is perhaps less obvious, but it's the same problem. Countless quarterbacks have learned over and over again that making that exact play, when it presents itself, can make a huge difference in a game, in a season, and in the locker room. Mark Sanchez maybe wasn't thinking about this when he made that play, but there's some crude math going on in his teammates head at the end of that play no matter how he plays it. If he dives in there and picks up the first, his teammates decide they can trust him a little bit more and they respect his toughness. Most teammates will respond to that kind of play. If he slides short and they punt the ball, more than a few of them are going to look around, see the first down marker, see that he's a yard short and that he utterly gave up on that yard without a fight, and think of him as a chicken shit (if only for a moment). Any receiver or running back is going to think about what would happen to them if they slid to the ground a yard short of a first down. It's human nature.
Mark Sanchez absolutely made the right play. Is he made of glass? Possibly. But it was the right play, 100 times out of 100, and I'm 100% confident that a head coach who doesn't understand that is a moron.
My Absurd Pick of the Redskins over the Saints
No, I'm not backing off of this pick. Will the Redskins upset the Saints on Sunday? Probably not. I don't expect it to happen. I picked the Redskins because I think this game is going to be closer than maybe some people think it will be. I could have picked the Saints by 8 and called it gutsy, but it's still an 8 point loss and, really, does anybody pay attention to the margin of victory in a picks post? No (not that anybody is paying attention to this blog, and I mean AT ALL, but friggin' humor me, okay?).
The only way to pick the Redskins to do well in this game is to pick them to win. That way, I'm not in the miserable, shameful position of patting myself on the back if I pick the Redskins to lose by 3 and they lose by 4. "Hey, I'm fucking awesome, I told you it'd be close".
No. Screw that. If I'm going to pick the Redskins to do well at home against a juggernaut coming off a big emotional win and a short week of practice, I have to pick them to win. Because if I told you at the start of the season that the Saints were going to win their first 11 games and ultimately lose only once, you'd think the short week after the Patriots game, outdoors, in December, against an NFC East team with a noisy home crowd and Albert Haynesworth pressuring the pocket would be as good a time as any. And it is. Bizarre as it may sound, the 3-8 Redskins, losers of 6 of their last 7 games, are playing as well as they have all season and, record aside, look like a legitimate professional football team. They played damn well at Dallas and at Philadelphia in their last two games, and smacked the 6-2 Broncos in their last home game. There are any number of guys playing right now on the Redskins who honestly don't give a shit and a half about a 3-8 record; they're playing for reputation, or for a job, or because it's the first time they've been given a legitimate shot at playing time in their entire career. The Redskins have absolutely nothing to lose in this game.
The Saints, on the other hand, have ascended. They've climbed to the top. They've all but clinched the AFC South. They just delivered a prime-time nationally televised smackdown to the reigning NFL juggernaut. This was a short work week for them. Last season, the Redskins defense did as well as any team has in two seasons at shutting down the Saints' passing game. Statistically, this is the best defense, by far, that the Saints have faced since week 5. Their last 6 opponents have had the 19th (Miami), 27th (Atlanta), 11th (Carolina), 28th (St. Louis), 26th (Tampa Bay), and 12th (Patriots) ranked defenses in the NFL by yardage, and in Carolina's case, you're talking about a defense giving up nearly 24 points a game.
All of this is a long way of saying this; the Redskins could win this game. I think they've got a chance. Of course, the last time I wrote out an explanation of a pick like this, the Redskins lost to the Patriots, at home, by 45 points.
The Vikings are Frauds
The Vikings needed a hail-mary to beat the 49ers by 3. They beat the Ravens in Minnesota by 2. They beat the Packers twice by a combined 19 points. They were thumped by the Steelers.
The rest of their schedule?
Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis, Detroit (again), Seattle, Chicago. They've won against those teams by a combined 1,000,000 point margin. In the next month, they go to Arizona, host Cincinnati, then have two more cupcakes (at Carolina and at Chicago), then finish up at home versus the Giants. We'll learn quite a bit about the Vikings over the next 5 weeks.
I, for one, expect slippage.
That's it!
Go Skynards!
"I don't expect much from Rex Ryan's tenure in New York. Why? First, his dad was a crap head coach, and those Ryan boys effing worship their dad. Secondly, he's far too much of a player's coach. Third, he's all ga-ga over the media attention that comes from being a head coach, and I hate that crap. Fourth, some guys just don't have it as game-managers, and Ryan strikes me as one of those guys. Some of the most important stuff a head-coach does takes place in those time-sensitive down-and-distance moments in critical points in close games, and those are moments when your head has to be into the situation. I believe Ryan is a smart enough guy. The problem? The vast, overwhelming majority of those make-or-break moments happen when your offense is on the field, and I flat do not believe Ryan is a cerebral enough guy to be sharp on his offense in those moments."
I, Nostradamus Jr., wrote that in my NFL Preview way back when. History will remember that as one of the all-time greatest paragraphs, and here's why: in the past few weeks, I think everyone is starting to realize what an incredibly dismal head coach Rex Ryan is.
His clock and game management has already been sketchy this season, in close losses to Jacksonville, Buffalo, and twice to Miami. He's not a game manager. He's just not. In games decided by less than 6 points, the Jets are 0-4, and in each of those losses, time-outs, playcalling, and game-management played a role in undermining any chance the Jets may have had down the stretch. Twice in that stretch, against Buffalo and Jacksonville, his team had burned all three time-outs before their final possession of the game. In the second loss to Miami, he stubbornly refused to use his time-outs before his team's final possession, which, incidentally, started with less than a minute on the clock. He's a buffoon.
Last week, Ryan made the embarrassing, inexplicable, lame-brained, and ultimately useless decision to have Joe Girardi come teach his quarterback how to slide. First of all, if Ryan had his rookie quarterback spend anything more than 15 seconds working with the manager of the Yankees on a baseball move during a game week, he should be fired today. Second of all, you don't need a baseball player or coach or even a fan to teach a guy how to slide. Does Kellen Clemens know how to slide in a football game? Yes? Okay, there's your teacher. Getting Girardi to do it is a publicity stunt, a bald-faced, embarrassingly pathetic attention grab by a guy who's now developed a reputation for grabbing attention at every possible opportunity.
Now, is it important that Mark Sanchez get comfortable with the idea of sliding in certain situations? Probably. Quarterbacks, for the most part, are around to pass the ball down the field. Occasionally, a reasonably athletic quarterback may take an opportunity to gain some yards with his legs. The great Joe Montana made famous his belief that any time a quarterback can pick up yardage, particularly a first down, and get to the sideline, he should take off and run for the sideline, without thinking twice. I like that idea; it makes the quarterback dangerous and it adds another dimension to your offense, while protecting your quarterback's health. Especially athletic quarterbacks may take it a step further by running up field and picking up tough yards in traffic. I'm not sure Mark Sanchez is especially athletic, but he's young, anyway, and certainly fits into the middle group (he's a reasonably athletic guy who can pick up the occasional first down with his legs). Because he's not Vince Young or Michael Vick or even Alex Smith, he should probably get comfortable with the idea of protecting his health to the extent possible. In short, yes, he should know how to slide.
On Sunday, in a division contest, on the road, with their season still there for the salvaging, Mark Sanchez took off on third down and headed for first down yardage. He got close, guys closed in on him, he ducked low and lunged forward for the last yard, absorbed moderate contact while successfully converting the first down, and was hurt. For some absurd reason, Rex Ryan stood before the national media and said that was a bad idea.
Frankly, I don't know what to make of a head coach who says a player on the field in position to pick up a key first down in a key game should think of his health before and above the team's goal of keeping the ball. It's not like Sanchez was out there shucking and jiving, going over the top of a pile or busting a spin move. The guy lowered his head, ducked his shoulder, tucked the ball, and more or less dove straight for the ground. That's about as routine a play as there is in football. Any quarterback worth a damn makes that play 100 times out of 100. Can you imagine how you'd feel about a rookie quarterback in that situation sliding to a stop a yard short of a first down, and then explaining it off as him just preserving his health? I would almost immediately write that player off as a potential NFL franchise quarterback.
So let's take a bigger look at Rex Ryan's tenure as a head coach, short though it may yet be. He's a ham; his team loses close games; he doesn't know how to manage the clock; he spends practice week time grabbing publicity instead of working on the game-plan; he boo-hoos the referees and opposing coaches when he loses; he wants his rookie quarterback to think of his health before making a routine (albeit heroic) play to keep a drive alive; and he's willing to criticize him for it to the media.
I'm sticking to my guns here; Rex Ryan is not at all cut out to be a head coach. This is all part of a bigger picture. He does not understand game situations well enough to make intelligent decisions about managing a game. Burning time-outs in a close game is an example. Holding onto time-outs when your defense is on the field so your offense can use them on the final drive but failing to realize that your offense may not have enough time left on the clock to make use of the time-outs is another obvious one. Coaching your young quarterback to think of his health before making a gutsy-but-routine play to keep a drive alive in a division contest is perhaps less obvious, but it's the same problem. Countless quarterbacks have learned over and over again that making that exact play, when it presents itself, can make a huge difference in a game, in a season, and in the locker room. Mark Sanchez maybe wasn't thinking about this when he made that play, but there's some crude math going on in his teammates head at the end of that play no matter how he plays it. If he dives in there and picks up the first, his teammates decide they can trust him a little bit more and they respect his toughness. Most teammates will respond to that kind of play. If he slides short and they punt the ball, more than a few of them are going to look around, see the first down marker, see that he's a yard short and that he utterly gave up on that yard without a fight, and think of him as a chicken shit (if only for a moment). Any receiver or running back is going to think about what would happen to them if they slid to the ground a yard short of a first down. It's human nature.
Mark Sanchez absolutely made the right play. Is he made of glass? Possibly. But it was the right play, 100 times out of 100, and I'm 100% confident that a head coach who doesn't understand that is a moron.
My Absurd Pick of the Redskins over the Saints
No, I'm not backing off of this pick. Will the Redskins upset the Saints on Sunday? Probably not. I don't expect it to happen. I picked the Redskins because I think this game is going to be closer than maybe some people think it will be. I could have picked the Saints by 8 and called it gutsy, but it's still an 8 point loss and, really, does anybody pay attention to the margin of victory in a picks post? No (not that anybody is paying attention to this blog, and I mean AT ALL, but friggin' humor me, okay?).
The only way to pick the Redskins to do well in this game is to pick them to win. That way, I'm not in the miserable, shameful position of patting myself on the back if I pick the Redskins to lose by 3 and they lose by 4. "Hey, I'm fucking awesome, I told you it'd be close".
No. Screw that. If I'm going to pick the Redskins to do well at home against a juggernaut coming off a big emotional win and a short week of practice, I have to pick them to win. Because if I told you at the start of the season that the Saints were going to win their first 11 games and ultimately lose only once, you'd think the short week after the Patriots game, outdoors, in December, against an NFC East team with a noisy home crowd and Albert Haynesworth pressuring the pocket would be as good a time as any. And it is. Bizarre as it may sound, the 3-8 Redskins, losers of 6 of their last 7 games, are playing as well as they have all season and, record aside, look like a legitimate professional football team. They played damn well at Dallas and at Philadelphia in their last two games, and smacked the 6-2 Broncos in their last home game. There are any number of guys playing right now on the Redskins who honestly don't give a shit and a half about a 3-8 record; they're playing for reputation, or for a job, or because it's the first time they've been given a legitimate shot at playing time in their entire career. The Redskins have absolutely nothing to lose in this game.
The Saints, on the other hand, have ascended. They've climbed to the top. They've all but clinched the AFC South. They just delivered a prime-time nationally televised smackdown to the reigning NFL juggernaut. This was a short work week for them. Last season, the Redskins defense did as well as any team has in two seasons at shutting down the Saints' passing game. Statistically, this is the best defense, by far, that the Saints have faced since week 5. Their last 6 opponents have had the 19th (Miami), 27th (Atlanta), 11th (Carolina), 28th (St. Louis), 26th (Tampa Bay), and 12th (Patriots) ranked defenses in the NFL by yardage, and in Carolina's case, you're talking about a defense giving up nearly 24 points a game.
All of this is a long way of saying this; the Redskins could win this game. I think they've got a chance. Of course, the last time I wrote out an explanation of a pick like this, the Redskins lost to the Patriots, at home, by 45 points.
The Vikings are Frauds
The Vikings needed a hail-mary to beat the 49ers by 3. They beat the Ravens in Minnesota by 2. They beat the Packers twice by a combined 19 points. They were thumped by the Steelers.
The rest of their schedule?
Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis, Detroit (again), Seattle, Chicago. They've won against those teams by a combined 1,000,000 point margin. In the next month, they go to Arizona, host Cincinnati, then have two more cupcakes (at Carolina and at Chicago), then finish up at home versus the Giants. We'll learn quite a bit about the Vikings over the next 5 weeks.
I, for one, expect slippage.
That's it!
Go Skynards!
Monday, November 30, 2009
Week 12 in Review, Plus Week 13 Picks
This was a pretty bizarre weekend of NFL action. Very few teams played especially well on Sunday; the Vikings, the Bills (of all teams), San Francisco, and San Diego. A few teams took absolutely brutal losses; Washington, Houston, Miami, Arizona, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh come to mind. There were remarkably few noteworthy individual performances. The playoff picture was not made much clearer in either conference.
I found myself paying special attention to quarterback play this weekend. A few of the good performances were surprises to me, most notably Alex Smith of the 49ers. I watched most of that game, and virtually all of it after it became apparent that the 4pm NFC game was going to be a full-on bloodbath, roughly 7 minutes into the first quarter. Alex Smith impressed me, running the more spread out offense in San Francisco. The most important, impressive part of his performance was his decisiveness with the ball, followed by his movement in the pocket and his look of confidence and comfort. He was sharp, he was deliberate, he moved the ball, he made very few bad or risky decisions. I think he could be the guy in San Francisco, I really do.
Jason Campbell played well for Washington. He, too, looked decisive (for the most part), and looked comfortable throwing the ball down the field, especially considering how horrific his protection continues to be. He's got to use his feet more to create space, time, and yardage when his protection breaks down, but he looks quite comfortable throwing to the young receivers on the roster, especially on the mid to deep throws. Some team other than the Redskins (probably Carolina) is going to get a free-agent steal this off-season. I can't wait to see what he can do on a team with a good offensive line, a good running game, and more aggressive playcalling.
Brett Favre was lights-out for Minnesota. Philip Rivers was lights-out for San Diego. Drew Brees was unbelievable for the Saints.
On the other side of the coin, Jay Cutler was abysmal for Chicago. Even on the throws he did make, he stared down what seemed to be his first and only option on the play. I'm not convinced that guy reads or manipulates coverages at all once the ball is snapped. It looked like the Bears were calling their passing game so deliberately, especially early in the game, to give Cutler one safe place to go with the ball and remove decision making from the process. It seems like others are starting to catch on now, but it looks like Cutler may not be cut out for winning football games. He's reckless with the ball to a fault.
Jake Delhomme was an absolute train-wreck for Carolina in their awful loss to the Jets. I'm sorry, but that guy just cannot play quarterback in the NFL anymore. They say he may have a broken finger now, and if so, that probably signals the end of his tenure as a starting quarterback for the Panthers. 14 of 34 for 130 yards and 4 picks? If it were one game, you'd let it pass, but those numbers are not uncharacteristic any longer for Delhomme. Quite simply, a veteran quarterback cannot put those kinds of numbers up more than maybe once every two years. Jason Campbell is no Tom Brady, but he hasn't put up numbers like that in any game in his entire career. The Panthers cannot win with Delhomme playing like he's played this season.
I usually don't get to watch multiple games on Sundays, but I did this Sunday, and a good number of highlights and re-caps, too. Quarterback play really stood out for one reason or another (perhaps because the Redskins are about to enter 2010 with finding a franchise quarterback at the top of their off-season to-do list), and it seemed pretty plain that there are a number of talented teams out there who just can't win with their quarterbacks playing as they are. More than ever, it highlighted to me that this has not been the case with Jason Campbell in Washington. If anything, I'd say Jason Campbell has proven, with this embarrassing disaster of an organization around him, that he's exactly the kind of quarterback you can win with in the NFL. He protects the football. He makes good decisions. He extends plays and drives with his individual efforts. He spreads the ball around and keeps the playmakers involved. He's managed to stay healthy despite taking a brutal pounding. He's consistent. He seems to improve every year in one way or another. And then there are the measurables; he's tall, he's got a cannon arm, he's reasonably athletic, and he completes a high percentage of his passes. With a shite offensive line, some of the NFL's worst skill position players, and in an organization that pretty much defines the word "dysfunctional", he's managed to put up numbers that, on paper, make him one of the NFL's top 10-12 quarterbacks.
This will be just another of those agonizing instances where a Washington sports franchise lets an obvious asset get away because the organization is too disorganized and unprofessional to know how to cultivate a winning program around him. As with the Wizards/Bullets (who, incidentally, have never ever ever built a winning organization through the draft. They came close with Webber and Howard, then blew the whole thing up for . . . umm . . . Mitch Richmond.), the Redskins have spent the past decade or more reaching for free-agents and mercenaries, building hideous, top-heavy rosters, and dodging again and again the obviously necessary process of fully re-building a winning organization through the draft. I, for one, am sick of this crap. For Jason Campbell, though, I'll be happy when he's given a chance to work for a real football team sometime in the near future. I just hope he doesn't land in Oakland.
And now, a re-cap!
Colts over Texans, 35-27
My Pick: Colts over Texans, 28-27
Hey, Texans fans, next year looks like your year!
I'll tell ya, I really thought the Texans had the Colts on Sunday. Indy's defense was awful in the first half, especially on play fakes. The game turned utterly on Matt Schaub's indefensibly atrocious pick-six to Clint Sessions. That was a truly terrible decision, at a critical point in the game, and it gave all the momentum to Indianapolis.
The funny thing about Schaub is, he does literally every single thing a quarterback can do about as well as anybody in the NFL, except the whole "knowing how to win" part. When you watch him play, his mechanics are fantastic, he executes a play-fake as well as can be done, he throws a beautiful, accurate deep ball and is precise on all his short throws, and he generally makes rock-solid decisions. He just has a habit of making that kind of throw in key situations in big games. I feel like this is often the case with promising young quarterbacks. Last season, it was Aaron Rodgers; he'd put up 315 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he'd throw a bad ball in the early fourth quarter, or make one bone-headed decision on the game's final drive with a win within grasp, and the Packers would somehow lose. Sometimes, even the really obviously solid young quarterbacks need some time to marry statistical success with actual winning. I think Schaub will get there. And it hasn't always been Schaub's fault this season with the Texans, but he had a huge hand in Sunday's loss. The other pick wasn't so bad, but he lost a fumble by not sensing pressure around him, on top of the awful pick to Sessions.
Schaub's still a tremendous young quarterback, and he can come play for my team any day.
As for Indy, their work isn't done if they're interested in trying for an undefeated season. Next up is a sizzling Tennessee team, followed by the desperate Broncos (both in Indianapolis). They then have a home date with the miserable Jets sandwiched between two road trips, at Jacksonville and at Buffalo. If they can get past these next two, however, the odds will be strongly in their favor. For my part, I can't think of anything better than Peyton Manning and the Colts basically wiping even more of the shine off of the Patriots' undefeated season.
Bengals over Browns, 16-7
My Pick: Bengals over Browns, 24-9
Yeah, that was about what I imagined. The Bengals aren't playing as well as they have this season, but they're in great shape in their division.
Vikings over Bears, 36-10
My Pick: Vikings over Bears, 34-17
Yowza. That was even worse than I expected. My God, the Bears are awful. They gained an astonishing 2 yards of offense in the second half of the game.
I just have a couple of notes about this laugher.
First, Brett Favre was great. He just was.
Second, Jay Cutler was so not. What's more, body language-wise, Jay Cutler looked like a guy who never in a million years thought his team had a chance to win. Whatever else is wrong with Cutler (and there's plenty), he's got to do something about his body language. I can't imagine his teammates have ever felt warmed, let alone inspired, by his personality. He looks like the quarterback of a losing team. Which makes sense, if you really strain your brain.
Third, on Chester Taylor's catch-and-run touchdown, Chicago's defensive back makes one of the worst chicken-shit plays you'll see in an NFL game. Taylor is gunning for the pylon, and the back has the angle on him, but instead of lowering his shoulder and trying to knock him out of bounds or stop him short, the back pulls up and jumps over him to avoid contact. Would Minnesota have scored anyway on that drive? Probably. Is that the kind of play a professional athlete (one with any pride, anyway) makes in a division game? Hell no.
Fourth, when you're down 24-7 in the third quarter, on the road, and your kick returner breaks off a 77-yard return to put your offense in business in the red-zone, NEVER EVER EVER settle for a field goal. I don't care if it's fourth and 40. What the hell does a field goal do for you? I hate to sound like that douchebag TMQ on ESPN.com, but that was a chicken shit call, and you're never going to win a game when you make that call.
Eagles over Redskins, 27-24
My Pick: Eagles over Redskins, 23-17
Man. Man man man. The Redskins really should have won this game.
Now, a few notes from this game:
1. Jason Campbell played well, but he paid the price for staring down an underneath route on Asante Samuel's side of the field. Twice. To put it plainly, you cannot stare down any route underneath Asante Samuel. He will jump it, and if he gets there, he will intercept it. Now, why Washington never went with Jason staring down an underneath route, pumping Samuel, then going over the top to whoever Samuel left, I'm not sure, but it was there, I'm sure of it.
2. Laron Landry needs to bring Jason Avant down on that one completion over the middle. You know the one. Landry lowered his shoulder and tried to blow him up, bounced right off of him, and Avant picked up another 20 yards running up the right sideline. This has become so common with Landry that, if it doesn't happen in a game, you notice.
3. Reid Doughty completely blew his coverage on Deshawn Jackson's touchdown reception. That was a three deep zone. How do I know? Because Doughty chased the underneath route right under Laron Landry's deep-middle zone. Fred Smoot stayed in the flat, Doughty was supposed to cover the deep third. He got caught cheating in on the post and let Jackson run completely free up the left sideline. If the Redskins don't give up a touchdown there, they win the game. Why? Because Philly would have mentally checked out. I know it.
4. Fred Davis is a baller. I'm almost ready to say Devin Thomas is a baller, too. Malcolm Kelly shows glimpses. Finally, though, all three of them are regular contributors. Just in time for the whole organization to be blown up this off-season.
This was an evenly played game, incredibly so. It came down to a few key screw ups by the Redskins in key moments. They've now lost 8 of 11 games, but I'll say this; if they'd lost all 8 of those games the way they've lost 3 of their last 4, I would have a completely different feeling about their 2009 season. In their last 4 games, they've looked like a professional football team, which is a dramatic departure from how they started the season. I can handle them losing, as long as they're playing well. I was not down in the dumps Sunday afternoon.
And here's the really funny thing; it' s possible this current Redskins game-day roster is my favorite Redskins roster of the past decade. Of course, the offensive line is terrible, but even there, they're starting two young Maryland guys and Derrick Dockery, who they originally drafted. Their backfield has local guy Marcus Mason and fan-favorite and all around Swiss Army Knife Rock Cartwright. Both guys run hungrier and with more explosion than Clinton Portis, and their combined salary is probably a tenth or less of his. I much prefer this receiving corps to the previous version; finally, the Redskins are actually working on developing their young receivers, and it's paying off. Plus, these receivers are so, so much more explosive than their veteran teammates. I'm not saying they're phasing out Santana Moss or Antwan Randle El, but they sure seem to be looking an awful lot at Devin Thomas, Fred Davis, and Malcolm Kelly. I'd really like to see Marko Mitchell out there some. On defense, while I acknowledge that Albert Haynesworth is a beast, I admire this defensive line more for their humble pedigree. (Will I be happy when Haynesworth returns? Of course.) The linebackers are fine. I like the secondary much better with Justin Tryon in action and DeAngelo Hall on the bench. I'd like it even better if Chris Horton were healthy. And on special teams, I really like Devin Thomas returning kicks. He may have a shite return every now and again (as he did on his final return against the Eagles, heading laterally and getting tackled from behind), but he's young, hungry, and explosive, and much more likely to break a long return than Rock ever was. Plus, this is why you have young guys and this is what you're supposed to do with them when they haven't really stepped forward on offense. It's a shame it took injuries to bring it about, but I'll take it anyway.
On the other hand, there are a number of Redskins I really like who are now on injured reserve; Horton, Chris Cooley, and especially Jeremy Jarmon. Still, if the Redskins are going to suck and lose, they might as well suck and lose with a bunch of young guys playing key positions. The good news is, while they're still losing, they're actually sucking a whole lot less with these guys on the field.
Bills over Dolphins, 31-14
My Pick: Dolphins over Bills, 24-13
Holy balls. What a joke.
Titans over Cardinals, 20-17
My Pick: Cardinals over Titans, 28-24
All bets are off with the 2009 Tennessee Titans. Arizona's defense may not be the Steel Curtain, but they're engineered specifically to play from ahead in late game scenarios; they rush the passer extremely well and their secondary is aggressive and opportunistic. Vince Young made shredded cabbage out of them.
Tennessee started 2009 0-6 with Kerry Collins under center. They've now won 5 in a row. If, 5 weeks ago, Vince Young had won this game in this fashion, we'd all say "Wow, isn't that nice", and move on. If 5 weeks later, they'd won five in a row, we'd then say "Wow, that was the start of something special right there!" But if you win 5 in a row with Vince Young, and it's the fifth win that comes like this, the reaction is more like "this team has it, whatever it is, and I'm never betting against them again." That's not really a huge revelation, just an interesting little thing I was thinking about. Their season was on the line this time. In the first scenario, nothing much mattered but personal and/or professional pride. Now, with a streak on the line and the season suddenly hanging in the balance, this was a huge, huge pressure situation. And that's what makes it so impressive, and this Titans team seem so ridiculously blessed; as if winning 4 straight after an 0-6 start with (I think it's fair to call him) a cast-off Vince Young under center wasn't impressive enough, to then go out and put together a game-winning 99-yard touchdown drive against the Super Bowl runner up, with the game winning catch made by a rookie on fourth down as time expired . . . incredible. I'm legitimately torn about picking against them in week 13, at Indianapolis. As crazy as it might sound, the 5-6 Titans seem to be significantly hotter right now than the 11-0 Indianapolis Colts, who just staged their own memorable fourth quarter comeback on the road against a division rival and are only two weeks removed from the season's first incredibly memorable comeback win. Incredible. Incredibly incredible, the way this season has turned for the Titans. To hell with the Saints; I'm riding the Titans the rest of the way.
Seahawks over Rams, 27-17
My Pick: Rams over Seahawks, 13-10
I went out on a fucking limb, okay?
Falcons over Bucs, 20-17
My Pick: Falcons over Bucs, 31-14
It's got to be encouraging, for Falcons fans, that their team can win a game without their top running back and franchise quarterback. On the other hand, when you need a collapse by your opponent and a fairly miraculous finish to get that win, against a 1-win team that's pretty clearly circling the drain, I'm not sure how good you can feel about it. I mean, Tampa Bay was one horrendously stupid (and at least somewhat suspect) penalty well away from the ball from winning this game.
And that's all I have to say about that.
Well, wait, except for this; Josh Freeman continues to look like a guy who could develop into a franchise quarterback. He made some really nice throws in this game.
Jets over Panthers, 17-6
My Pick: Panthers over Jets, 20-17
I made this point earlier, but it's worth covering a second time: the Panthers will never, ever be competitive as long as Jake Delhomme continues to play anything like he's played at any point this season. It behooves John Fox to get a young quarterback in there immediately if he has any interest in continuing to coach the Panthers beyond this season. Like Jeff Fisher in Tennessee, it will do him wonders if he can create a situation where pundits and fans are inclined to tie up all the team's recent struggles and hang them around the neck of a displaced, veteran, former quarterback. Not that Jeff Fisher's job was necessarily in any danger, but John Fox's is, and whatever gripes people had with Fisher have been utterly transferred to Kerry Collins as Vince Young leads the same team back towards the playoff race. If Fox could put together the same kind of run in Carolina with, say, Matt Moore, I feel very confident he'd be back in 2010.
As for Delhomme, I've got to think his time in the NFL is coming to a close. He may be able to hang around for another season or two as an expensive backup in Carolina, but I can't see another team taking on his absurd contract via trade, and if the Panthers were to cut him loose, I can't imagine another team wanting him as even an insurance policy. Ol' Jake was a battler for a stretch there, but if you were secretly always skeptical of his place among legitimate franchise quarterbacks, well, you weren't alone, and this season is the exact reason why. Throughout his career as a starting quarterback, he's been a terrible decision maker, especially when under pressure. For whatever reason, starting with the NFC Divisional Playoffs of the 2008 season, he's been at his absolute worst and hasn't been able to snap out of it for more than maybe a quarter or two at a time. I don't have anything against Delhomme, but I honestly think if you'd replaced him with any of a dozen different quarterbacks for his time in Carolina, that team probably would have won a Super Bowl in there and we'd think of the entire team and John Fox in a totally different light today. Ahhh, such is the nature of things, I suppose.
49ers over Jaguars, 20-3
My Pick: Jaguars over 49ers, 23-21
As I said above, Alex Smith played very, very well against the Jaguars. Jacksonville's offensive line was brutally bad, and that was pretty much the story of the game. One guy played well with decent protection, the other guy did what you'd expect behind atrocious protection.
Chargers over Chiefs, 43-14
My Pick: Chargers over Chiefs, 41-21
If you didn't think the Chargers would put up 40 and win by 20 or more, you're too much of a Chiefs homer to see clearly. I bet Todd Haley had the Chargers putting up 45 and winning by 30. I was downright generous in my pick.
Ravens over Steelers, 20-17
My Pick: Ravens over Steelers, 24-14
It would be convenient to wrap up the 2009 Steelers in the "injury" blanket and wipe this season away as lost. The reality, on the other hand, is that this team is far, far too reliant on one guy's heroics on offense and another guy's heroics on defense, and at a certain point, you're just failing as an organization if the loss of either of those guys sends a unit into a tailspin. That's exactly been the case in Pittsburgh; without Roethlisberger, their offense is pedestrian at best. Without Polamalu, their defense becomes significantly less dangerous. And really, what does it say about a team when their two most indispensable players have names with an average of 23 syllables and 475 letters? Seriously, they couldn't find two good players with normal names? There were no Smiths, no Joneses, no Browns? Go to hell, Pittsburgh.
Saints over Patriots, 38-17
My Pick: Saints over Patriots, 38-33
Ouch. I don't know who the Patriots fellated, but they had no effing business being out there. NO BUSINESS! NO! THEY HAD NO BUSINESS BEING OUT THERE!
I have to say this; I think I hate Tom Brady. I think it's possible I'd like any other player or coach or executive from that team if you removed them from that team and put them somewhere else. Brady? Nope. I revel in his embarrassment. Two of my happiest moments as a sports fan have both involved him; watching him quit on the field at the end of the Super Bowl against the Giants, and watching him throw two awful, indefensible picks against the Saints and get the mercy-pull in the fourth quarter. I hate the guy. If Bernard Pollard had dropped out of the sky in the fourth quarter and nuked Brady's other knee, I would not have been terribly upset. It's gotten to that point.
It's hard to put my finger on exactly where the hate comes from, but I suppose it's at least partly because I think he's just tremendously overrated as a player. Do I think he's a very good quarterback? Sure. Am I disgusted that he's mentioned alongside Joe Montana, or even Payton Manning, as one of the all-time greats? Yes, almost to the point of actual nausea. He's a system player. How do I know? When the Patriots do something special on offense, it's always done within the rigid rhythm of their offense. When that rhythm is even a little off, nothing special ever happens. He never plays well at all when there's pocket pressure. And when things go wrong, we all invariably say "_____ team/coach/player has figured out how to cover Wes Welker/Randy Moss". And every time someone figures out how to cover either Welker or Moss or both, things go wrong and he plays poorly.
When Payton Manning wins a game, he makes incredible throws over and over again. When Drew Brees wins a game, it's the same; big throw after big throw. Guts in the pocket. Gutsy, memorable plays. Touch and timing and accuracy, over and over again. When Tom Brady wins, he makes a five yard dump off and Welker outruns everyone, or Randy Moss outruns everyone deep and he throws it up there for him.
So there. Fuck Tom Brady. Smug douchebag.
And now, picks (ultra-quick style)!
New York Jets @ Buffalo
The Line: New York Jets by 3.5
Jets over Bills, 17-14
Denver @ Kansas City
The Line: Denver by 4.5
Not so sure about this one. Some home-dogs are going to win this Sunday, and this could be one of them. I haven't fully bought the Broncos' return to form, even after their shellacking of the Giants in week 12. Nothing would surprise me here.
Shoot, I guess I'll take the Broncos.
Broncos over Chiefs, 24-21
Oakland @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh by 14.5
Should be a pounding. I can't see the home crowd letting Pittsburgh play poorly when so much is at stake. They need every win from here on out. Plus, it's a 1pm East Coast game for a dreadful West Coast team.
Steelers over Raiders, 28-9
Houston @ Jacksonville
The Line: Even
With all these road favorites in week 13, it's hard for me to go out on a limb on a road-dog. I really want to pick Houston, though.
Fuck it, I'm taking Houston.
Texans over Jaguars, 34-24
Tennessee @ Indianapolis
The Line: Indianapolis by 6.5
This will be a fascinating game. And I have no idea how to pick it. In the past, Indy has relished the opportunity to squash a hot division opponent. The Titans aren't just a little bit hot, though, they're blistering, scalding, nuclear hell hot. And Chris Johnson ought to run absolutely wild on Indy's soft defense.
I really don't know.
Okay, here it is: I think it'll be a shoot-out, and in a shoot-out, the team that blinks first will lose. Peyton Manning will not blink at home. Vince Young is far, far more likely to blink. And the Indy crowd ought to be completely insane, with the undefeated season on the line against such a streaking division rival. Therefore, Colts win!!
Colts over Titans, 33-27
Philadelphia @ Atlanta
The Line: Philadelphia by 5.5
Now here's a home-dog I'm quite comfortable backing. Philly, sans Deshawn Jackson, in Atlanta, is more suspect than Atlanta, with an outrageous home-field advantage, with Chris Redman under center. For me, it's that simple. Philly, as the favorite, in Atlanta, without their best and most dangerous receiver? I hate that formula. Hate it.
Could Philly win? Yep. But Chris Redman is not the cupcake perhaps some people think he is. I think he'll play well enough to keep Atlanta close, and I think Jerrius Norwood will explode for at least one big play. Atlanta FTW!
Falcons over Eagles, 28-23
Detroit @ Cincinnati
The Line: Cincinnati by 13
Cincy ought to win. On the other hand, they just swept their division, they're in great shape for the post-season, and they've frankly never been here before. Who knows if this is the week they take their foot off the pedal?
Nah. Cincy's corners are great, their defense is mean and nasty, and they'll make enough big plays to win going away. Detroit is spunky, but I don't like them on the road.
Bengals over Lions, 31-13
New Orleans @ Washington
The Line: New Orleans by 9.5
Fuck New Orleans' perfect season. The Redskins are going to squeeze it in their fist and watch it ooze between their fingers like . . . ummm . . . mayonnaise, or something. Sure, the Saints are good, maybe even great. But the Redskins are like a race car in the red; they're ready to explode and wipe out whatever suckers are in the danger zone.
Redskins win!
Redskins over Saints, 27-23
Tampa Bay @ Carolina
The Line: Carolina by 6
Panthers win.
Panthers over Bucs, 20-14
St. Louis @ Chicago
The Line: Chicago by 9
Who cares?
Bears over Rams, 30-17
San Diego @ Cleveland
The Line: San Diego by 13
Long trip from San Diego to Cleveland. Long trip. Will it matter? Only in the margin of victory.
Chargers over Browns, 34-10
San Francisco @ Seattle
The Line: Even
I'm taking the Niners. They're a better team.
49ers over Seahawks, 24-17
Minnesota @ Arizona
The Line: Minnesota by 3.5
That's gotta burn the Cardinals. If they're healthy, this is a really intriguing match-up. They're not healthy, though. Kurt Warner is all woozy, and even if he plays, does anybody want to bank on post-concussion Kurt Warner? Remember how that worked out in New York? Every time he felt pressure, the ball came flying out and he went down like a sack of potatoes.
If Arizona wins, don't we have to talk about them as maybe one of the NFL's best 5 (or so) teams? Damn, I really wish they were healthy.
Vikings over Cardinals, 28-27
Dallas @ New York Giants
The Line: Dallas by 2.5
Hey, another great week 13 match-up! And this one is pretty much New York's season. They need this game. I need them to get it. I'm so, so ready for the Cowboys to collapse. I'm about as excited about that as I am about Christmas. I can't effing wait. It must start on Sunday.
And just to make sure it does happen, I'm picking the Cowboys.
FUCK YOU DALLAS!!
Cowboys over Giants, 45-3
New England @ Miami
The Line: New England by 3.5
Yeah, the Pats'll probably win.
Patriots over Dolphins, 35-20
Baltimore @ Green Bay
The Line: Green Bay by 3
Should be fun! I'll be rooting for the Packers.
Packers over Ravens, 27-17
That's it!
Go Skynards!
I found myself paying special attention to quarterback play this weekend. A few of the good performances were surprises to me, most notably Alex Smith of the 49ers. I watched most of that game, and virtually all of it after it became apparent that the 4pm NFC game was going to be a full-on bloodbath, roughly 7 minutes into the first quarter. Alex Smith impressed me, running the more spread out offense in San Francisco. The most important, impressive part of his performance was his decisiveness with the ball, followed by his movement in the pocket and his look of confidence and comfort. He was sharp, he was deliberate, he moved the ball, he made very few bad or risky decisions. I think he could be the guy in San Francisco, I really do.
Jason Campbell played well for Washington. He, too, looked decisive (for the most part), and looked comfortable throwing the ball down the field, especially considering how horrific his protection continues to be. He's got to use his feet more to create space, time, and yardage when his protection breaks down, but he looks quite comfortable throwing to the young receivers on the roster, especially on the mid to deep throws. Some team other than the Redskins (probably Carolina) is going to get a free-agent steal this off-season. I can't wait to see what he can do on a team with a good offensive line, a good running game, and more aggressive playcalling.
Brett Favre was lights-out for Minnesota. Philip Rivers was lights-out for San Diego. Drew Brees was unbelievable for the Saints.
On the other side of the coin, Jay Cutler was abysmal for Chicago. Even on the throws he did make, he stared down what seemed to be his first and only option on the play. I'm not convinced that guy reads or manipulates coverages at all once the ball is snapped. It looked like the Bears were calling their passing game so deliberately, especially early in the game, to give Cutler one safe place to go with the ball and remove decision making from the process. It seems like others are starting to catch on now, but it looks like Cutler may not be cut out for winning football games. He's reckless with the ball to a fault.
Jake Delhomme was an absolute train-wreck for Carolina in their awful loss to the Jets. I'm sorry, but that guy just cannot play quarterback in the NFL anymore. They say he may have a broken finger now, and if so, that probably signals the end of his tenure as a starting quarterback for the Panthers. 14 of 34 for 130 yards and 4 picks? If it were one game, you'd let it pass, but those numbers are not uncharacteristic any longer for Delhomme. Quite simply, a veteran quarterback cannot put those kinds of numbers up more than maybe once every two years. Jason Campbell is no Tom Brady, but he hasn't put up numbers like that in any game in his entire career. The Panthers cannot win with Delhomme playing like he's played this season.
I usually don't get to watch multiple games on Sundays, but I did this Sunday, and a good number of highlights and re-caps, too. Quarterback play really stood out for one reason or another (perhaps because the Redskins are about to enter 2010 with finding a franchise quarterback at the top of their off-season to-do list), and it seemed pretty plain that there are a number of talented teams out there who just can't win with their quarterbacks playing as they are. More than ever, it highlighted to me that this has not been the case with Jason Campbell in Washington. If anything, I'd say Jason Campbell has proven, with this embarrassing disaster of an organization around him, that he's exactly the kind of quarterback you can win with in the NFL. He protects the football. He makes good decisions. He extends plays and drives with his individual efforts. He spreads the ball around and keeps the playmakers involved. He's managed to stay healthy despite taking a brutal pounding. He's consistent. He seems to improve every year in one way or another. And then there are the measurables; he's tall, he's got a cannon arm, he's reasonably athletic, and he completes a high percentage of his passes. With a shite offensive line, some of the NFL's worst skill position players, and in an organization that pretty much defines the word "dysfunctional", he's managed to put up numbers that, on paper, make him one of the NFL's top 10-12 quarterbacks.
This will be just another of those agonizing instances where a Washington sports franchise lets an obvious asset get away because the organization is too disorganized and unprofessional to know how to cultivate a winning program around him. As with the Wizards/Bullets (who, incidentally, have never ever ever built a winning organization through the draft. They came close with Webber and Howard, then blew the whole thing up for . . . umm . . . Mitch Richmond.), the Redskins have spent the past decade or more reaching for free-agents and mercenaries, building hideous, top-heavy rosters, and dodging again and again the obviously necessary process of fully re-building a winning organization through the draft. I, for one, am sick of this crap. For Jason Campbell, though, I'll be happy when he's given a chance to work for a real football team sometime in the near future. I just hope he doesn't land in Oakland.
And now, a re-cap!
Colts over Texans, 35-27
My Pick: Colts over Texans, 28-27
Hey, Texans fans, next year looks like your year!
I'll tell ya, I really thought the Texans had the Colts on Sunday. Indy's defense was awful in the first half, especially on play fakes. The game turned utterly on Matt Schaub's indefensibly atrocious pick-six to Clint Sessions. That was a truly terrible decision, at a critical point in the game, and it gave all the momentum to Indianapolis.
The funny thing about Schaub is, he does literally every single thing a quarterback can do about as well as anybody in the NFL, except the whole "knowing how to win" part. When you watch him play, his mechanics are fantastic, he executes a play-fake as well as can be done, he throws a beautiful, accurate deep ball and is precise on all his short throws, and he generally makes rock-solid decisions. He just has a habit of making that kind of throw in key situations in big games. I feel like this is often the case with promising young quarterbacks. Last season, it was Aaron Rodgers; he'd put up 315 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he'd throw a bad ball in the early fourth quarter, or make one bone-headed decision on the game's final drive with a win within grasp, and the Packers would somehow lose. Sometimes, even the really obviously solid young quarterbacks need some time to marry statistical success with actual winning. I think Schaub will get there. And it hasn't always been Schaub's fault this season with the Texans, but he had a huge hand in Sunday's loss. The other pick wasn't so bad, but he lost a fumble by not sensing pressure around him, on top of the awful pick to Sessions.
Schaub's still a tremendous young quarterback, and he can come play for my team any day.
As for Indy, their work isn't done if they're interested in trying for an undefeated season. Next up is a sizzling Tennessee team, followed by the desperate Broncos (both in Indianapolis). They then have a home date with the miserable Jets sandwiched between two road trips, at Jacksonville and at Buffalo. If they can get past these next two, however, the odds will be strongly in their favor. For my part, I can't think of anything better than Peyton Manning and the Colts basically wiping even more of the shine off of the Patriots' undefeated season.
Bengals over Browns, 16-7
My Pick: Bengals over Browns, 24-9
Yeah, that was about what I imagined. The Bengals aren't playing as well as they have this season, but they're in great shape in their division.
Vikings over Bears, 36-10
My Pick: Vikings over Bears, 34-17
Yowza. That was even worse than I expected. My God, the Bears are awful. They gained an astonishing 2 yards of offense in the second half of the game.
I just have a couple of notes about this laugher.
First, Brett Favre was great. He just was.
Second, Jay Cutler was so not. What's more, body language-wise, Jay Cutler looked like a guy who never in a million years thought his team had a chance to win. Whatever else is wrong with Cutler (and there's plenty), he's got to do something about his body language. I can't imagine his teammates have ever felt warmed, let alone inspired, by his personality. He looks like the quarterback of a losing team. Which makes sense, if you really strain your brain.
Third, on Chester Taylor's catch-and-run touchdown, Chicago's defensive back makes one of the worst chicken-shit plays you'll see in an NFL game. Taylor is gunning for the pylon, and the back has the angle on him, but instead of lowering his shoulder and trying to knock him out of bounds or stop him short, the back pulls up and jumps over him to avoid contact. Would Minnesota have scored anyway on that drive? Probably. Is that the kind of play a professional athlete (one with any pride, anyway) makes in a division game? Hell no.
Fourth, when you're down 24-7 in the third quarter, on the road, and your kick returner breaks off a 77-yard return to put your offense in business in the red-zone, NEVER EVER EVER settle for a field goal. I don't care if it's fourth and 40. What the hell does a field goal do for you? I hate to sound like that douchebag TMQ on ESPN.com, but that was a chicken shit call, and you're never going to win a game when you make that call.
Eagles over Redskins, 27-24
My Pick: Eagles over Redskins, 23-17
Man. Man man man. The Redskins really should have won this game.
Now, a few notes from this game:
1. Jason Campbell played well, but he paid the price for staring down an underneath route on Asante Samuel's side of the field. Twice. To put it plainly, you cannot stare down any route underneath Asante Samuel. He will jump it, and if he gets there, he will intercept it. Now, why Washington never went with Jason staring down an underneath route, pumping Samuel, then going over the top to whoever Samuel left, I'm not sure, but it was there, I'm sure of it.
2. Laron Landry needs to bring Jason Avant down on that one completion over the middle. You know the one. Landry lowered his shoulder and tried to blow him up, bounced right off of him, and Avant picked up another 20 yards running up the right sideline. This has become so common with Landry that, if it doesn't happen in a game, you notice.
3. Reid Doughty completely blew his coverage on Deshawn Jackson's touchdown reception. That was a three deep zone. How do I know? Because Doughty chased the underneath route right under Laron Landry's deep-middle zone. Fred Smoot stayed in the flat, Doughty was supposed to cover the deep third. He got caught cheating in on the post and let Jackson run completely free up the left sideline. If the Redskins don't give up a touchdown there, they win the game. Why? Because Philly would have mentally checked out. I know it.
4. Fred Davis is a baller. I'm almost ready to say Devin Thomas is a baller, too. Malcolm Kelly shows glimpses. Finally, though, all three of them are regular contributors. Just in time for the whole organization to be blown up this off-season.
This was an evenly played game, incredibly so. It came down to a few key screw ups by the Redskins in key moments. They've now lost 8 of 11 games, but I'll say this; if they'd lost all 8 of those games the way they've lost 3 of their last 4, I would have a completely different feeling about their 2009 season. In their last 4 games, they've looked like a professional football team, which is a dramatic departure from how they started the season. I can handle them losing, as long as they're playing well. I was not down in the dumps Sunday afternoon.
And here's the really funny thing; it' s possible this current Redskins game-day roster is my favorite Redskins roster of the past decade. Of course, the offensive line is terrible, but even there, they're starting two young Maryland guys and Derrick Dockery, who they originally drafted. Their backfield has local guy Marcus Mason and fan-favorite and all around Swiss Army Knife Rock Cartwright. Both guys run hungrier and with more explosion than Clinton Portis, and their combined salary is probably a tenth or less of his. I much prefer this receiving corps to the previous version; finally, the Redskins are actually working on developing their young receivers, and it's paying off. Plus, these receivers are so, so much more explosive than their veteran teammates. I'm not saying they're phasing out Santana Moss or Antwan Randle El, but they sure seem to be looking an awful lot at Devin Thomas, Fred Davis, and Malcolm Kelly. I'd really like to see Marko Mitchell out there some. On defense, while I acknowledge that Albert Haynesworth is a beast, I admire this defensive line more for their humble pedigree. (Will I be happy when Haynesworth returns? Of course.) The linebackers are fine. I like the secondary much better with Justin Tryon in action and DeAngelo Hall on the bench. I'd like it even better if Chris Horton were healthy. And on special teams, I really like Devin Thomas returning kicks. He may have a shite return every now and again (as he did on his final return against the Eagles, heading laterally and getting tackled from behind), but he's young, hungry, and explosive, and much more likely to break a long return than Rock ever was. Plus, this is why you have young guys and this is what you're supposed to do with them when they haven't really stepped forward on offense. It's a shame it took injuries to bring it about, but I'll take it anyway.
On the other hand, there are a number of Redskins I really like who are now on injured reserve; Horton, Chris Cooley, and especially Jeremy Jarmon. Still, if the Redskins are going to suck and lose, they might as well suck and lose with a bunch of young guys playing key positions. The good news is, while they're still losing, they're actually sucking a whole lot less with these guys on the field.
Bills over Dolphins, 31-14
My Pick: Dolphins over Bills, 24-13
Holy balls. What a joke.
Titans over Cardinals, 20-17
My Pick: Cardinals over Titans, 28-24
All bets are off with the 2009 Tennessee Titans. Arizona's defense may not be the Steel Curtain, but they're engineered specifically to play from ahead in late game scenarios; they rush the passer extremely well and their secondary is aggressive and opportunistic. Vince Young made shredded cabbage out of them.
Tennessee started 2009 0-6 with Kerry Collins under center. They've now won 5 in a row. If, 5 weeks ago, Vince Young had won this game in this fashion, we'd all say "Wow, isn't that nice", and move on. If 5 weeks later, they'd won five in a row, we'd then say "Wow, that was the start of something special right there!" But if you win 5 in a row with Vince Young, and it's the fifth win that comes like this, the reaction is more like "this team has it, whatever it is, and I'm never betting against them again." That's not really a huge revelation, just an interesting little thing I was thinking about. Their season was on the line this time. In the first scenario, nothing much mattered but personal and/or professional pride. Now, with a streak on the line and the season suddenly hanging in the balance, this was a huge, huge pressure situation. And that's what makes it so impressive, and this Titans team seem so ridiculously blessed; as if winning 4 straight after an 0-6 start with (I think it's fair to call him) a cast-off Vince Young under center wasn't impressive enough, to then go out and put together a game-winning 99-yard touchdown drive against the Super Bowl runner up, with the game winning catch made by a rookie on fourth down as time expired . . . incredible. I'm legitimately torn about picking against them in week 13, at Indianapolis. As crazy as it might sound, the 5-6 Titans seem to be significantly hotter right now than the 11-0 Indianapolis Colts, who just staged their own memorable fourth quarter comeback on the road against a division rival and are only two weeks removed from the season's first incredibly memorable comeback win. Incredible. Incredibly incredible, the way this season has turned for the Titans. To hell with the Saints; I'm riding the Titans the rest of the way.
Seahawks over Rams, 27-17
My Pick: Rams over Seahawks, 13-10
I went out on a fucking limb, okay?
Falcons over Bucs, 20-17
My Pick: Falcons over Bucs, 31-14
It's got to be encouraging, for Falcons fans, that their team can win a game without their top running back and franchise quarterback. On the other hand, when you need a collapse by your opponent and a fairly miraculous finish to get that win, against a 1-win team that's pretty clearly circling the drain, I'm not sure how good you can feel about it. I mean, Tampa Bay was one horrendously stupid (and at least somewhat suspect) penalty well away from the ball from winning this game.
And that's all I have to say about that.
Well, wait, except for this; Josh Freeman continues to look like a guy who could develop into a franchise quarterback. He made some really nice throws in this game.
Jets over Panthers, 17-6
My Pick: Panthers over Jets, 20-17
I made this point earlier, but it's worth covering a second time: the Panthers will never, ever be competitive as long as Jake Delhomme continues to play anything like he's played at any point this season. It behooves John Fox to get a young quarterback in there immediately if he has any interest in continuing to coach the Panthers beyond this season. Like Jeff Fisher in Tennessee, it will do him wonders if he can create a situation where pundits and fans are inclined to tie up all the team's recent struggles and hang them around the neck of a displaced, veteran, former quarterback. Not that Jeff Fisher's job was necessarily in any danger, but John Fox's is, and whatever gripes people had with Fisher have been utterly transferred to Kerry Collins as Vince Young leads the same team back towards the playoff race. If Fox could put together the same kind of run in Carolina with, say, Matt Moore, I feel very confident he'd be back in 2010.
As for Delhomme, I've got to think his time in the NFL is coming to a close. He may be able to hang around for another season or two as an expensive backup in Carolina, but I can't see another team taking on his absurd contract via trade, and if the Panthers were to cut him loose, I can't imagine another team wanting him as even an insurance policy. Ol' Jake was a battler for a stretch there, but if you were secretly always skeptical of his place among legitimate franchise quarterbacks, well, you weren't alone, and this season is the exact reason why. Throughout his career as a starting quarterback, he's been a terrible decision maker, especially when under pressure. For whatever reason, starting with the NFC Divisional Playoffs of the 2008 season, he's been at his absolute worst and hasn't been able to snap out of it for more than maybe a quarter or two at a time. I don't have anything against Delhomme, but I honestly think if you'd replaced him with any of a dozen different quarterbacks for his time in Carolina, that team probably would have won a Super Bowl in there and we'd think of the entire team and John Fox in a totally different light today. Ahhh, such is the nature of things, I suppose.
49ers over Jaguars, 20-3
My Pick: Jaguars over 49ers, 23-21
As I said above, Alex Smith played very, very well against the Jaguars. Jacksonville's offensive line was brutally bad, and that was pretty much the story of the game. One guy played well with decent protection, the other guy did what you'd expect behind atrocious protection.
Chargers over Chiefs, 43-14
My Pick: Chargers over Chiefs, 41-21
If you didn't think the Chargers would put up 40 and win by 20 or more, you're too much of a Chiefs homer to see clearly. I bet Todd Haley had the Chargers putting up 45 and winning by 30. I was downright generous in my pick.
Ravens over Steelers, 20-17
My Pick: Ravens over Steelers, 24-14
It would be convenient to wrap up the 2009 Steelers in the "injury" blanket and wipe this season away as lost. The reality, on the other hand, is that this team is far, far too reliant on one guy's heroics on offense and another guy's heroics on defense, and at a certain point, you're just failing as an organization if the loss of either of those guys sends a unit into a tailspin. That's exactly been the case in Pittsburgh; without Roethlisberger, their offense is pedestrian at best. Without Polamalu, their defense becomes significantly less dangerous. And really, what does it say about a team when their two most indispensable players have names with an average of 23 syllables and 475 letters? Seriously, they couldn't find two good players with normal names? There were no Smiths, no Joneses, no Browns? Go to hell, Pittsburgh.
Saints over Patriots, 38-17
My Pick: Saints over Patriots, 38-33
Ouch. I don't know who the Patriots fellated, but they had no effing business being out there. NO BUSINESS! NO! THEY HAD NO BUSINESS BEING OUT THERE!
I have to say this; I think I hate Tom Brady. I think it's possible I'd like any other player or coach or executive from that team if you removed them from that team and put them somewhere else. Brady? Nope. I revel in his embarrassment. Two of my happiest moments as a sports fan have both involved him; watching him quit on the field at the end of the Super Bowl against the Giants, and watching him throw two awful, indefensible picks against the Saints and get the mercy-pull in the fourth quarter. I hate the guy. If Bernard Pollard had dropped out of the sky in the fourth quarter and nuked Brady's other knee, I would not have been terribly upset. It's gotten to that point.
It's hard to put my finger on exactly where the hate comes from, but I suppose it's at least partly because I think he's just tremendously overrated as a player. Do I think he's a very good quarterback? Sure. Am I disgusted that he's mentioned alongside Joe Montana, or even Payton Manning, as one of the all-time greats? Yes, almost to the point of actual nausea. He's a system player. How do I know? When the Patriots do something special on offense, it's always done within the rigid rhythm of their offense. When that rhythm is even a little off, nothing special ever happens. He never plays well at all when there's pocket pressure. And when things go wrong, we all invariably say "_____ team/coach/player has figured out how to cover Wes Welker/Randy Moss". And every time someone figures out how to cover either Welker or Moss or both, things go wrong and he plays poorly.
When Payton Manning wins a game, he makes incredible throws over and over again. When Drew Brees wins a game, it's the same; big throw after big throw. Guts in the pocket. Gutsy, memorable plays. Touch and timing and accuracy, over and over again. When Tom Brady wins, he makes a five yard dump off and Welker outruns everyone, or Randy Moss outruns everyone deep and he throws it up there for him.
So there. Fuck Tom Brady. Smug douchebag.
And now, picks (ultra-quick style)!
New York Jets @ Buffalo
The Line: New York Jets by 3.5
Jets over Bills, 17-14
Denver @ Kansas City
The Line: Denver by 4.5
Not so sure about this one. Some home-dogs are going to win this Sunday, and this could be one of them. I haven't fully bought the Broncos' return to form, even after their shellacking of the Giants in week 12. Nothing would surprise me here.
Shoot, I guess I'll take the Broncos.
Broncos over Chiefs, 24-21
Oakland @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh by 14.5
Should be a pounding. I can't see the home crowd letting Pittsburgh play poorly when so much is at stake. They need every win from here on out. Plus, it's a 1pm East Coast game for a dreadful West Coast team.
Steelers over Raiders, 28-9
Houston @ Jacksonville
The Line: Even
With all these road favorites in week 13, it's hard for me to go out on a limb on a road-dog. I really want to pick Houston, though.
Fuck it, I'm taking Houston.
Texans over Jaguars, 34-24
Tennessee @ Indianapolis
The Line: Indianapolis by 6.5
This will be a fascinating game. And I have no idea how to pick it. In the past, Indy has relished the opportunity to squash a hot division opponent. The Titans aren't just a little bit hot, though, they're blistering, scalding, nuclear hell hot. And Chris Johnson ought to run absolutely wild on Indy's soft defense.
I really don't know.
Okay, here it is: I think it'll be a shoot-out, and in a shoot-out, the team that blinks first will lose. Peyton Manning will not blink at home. Vince Young is far, far more likely to blink. And the Indy crowd ought to be completely insane, with the undefeated season on the line against such a streaking division rival. Therefore, Colts win!!
Colts over Titans, 33-27
Philadelphia @ Atlanta
The Line: Philadelphia by 5.5
Now here's a home-dog I'm quite comfortable backing. Philly, sans Deshawn Jackson, in Atlanta, is more suspect than Atlanta, with an outrageous home-field advantage, with Chris Redman under center. For me, it's that simple. Philly, as the favorite, in Atlanta, without their best and most dangerous receiver? I hate that formula. Hate it.
Could Philly win? Yep. But Chris Redman is not the cupcake perhaps some people think he is. I think he'll play well enough to keep Atlanta close, and I think Jerrius Norwood will explode for at least one big play. Atlanta FTW!
Falcons over Eagles, 28-23
Detroit @ Cincinnati
The Line: Cincinnati by 13
Cincy ought to win. On the other hand, they just swept their division, they're in great shape for the post-season, and they've frankly never been here before. Who knows if this is the week they take their foot off the pedal?
Nah. Cincy's corners are great, their defense is mean and nasty, and they'll make enough big plays to win going away. Detroit is spunky, but I don't like them on the road.
Bengals over Lions, 31-13
New Orleans @ Washington
The Line: New Orleans by 9.5
Fuck New Orleans' perfect season. The Redskins are going to squeeze it in their fist and watch it ooze between their fingers like . . . ummm . . . mayonnaise, or something. Sure, the Saints are good, maybe even great. But the Redskins are like a race car in the red; they're ready to explode and wipe out whatever suckers are in the danger zone.
Redskins win!
Redskins over Saints, 27-23
Tampa Bay @ Carolina
The Line: Carolina by 6
Panthers win.
Panthers over Bucs, 20-14
St. Louis @ Chicago
The Line: Chicago by 9
Who cares?
Bears over Rams, 30-17
San Diego @ Cleveland
The Line: San Diego by 13
Long trip from San Diego to Cleveland. Long trip. Will it matter? Only in the margin of victory.
Chargers over Browns, 34-10
San Francisco @ Seattle
The Line: Even
I'm taking the Niners. They're a better team.
49ers over Seahawks, 24-17
Minnesota @ Arizona
The Line: Minnesota by 3.5
That's gotta burn the Cardinals. If they're healthy, this is a really intriguing match-up. They're not healthy, though. Kurt Warner is all woozy, and even if he plays, does anybody want to bank on post-concussion Kurt Warner? Remember how that worked out in New York? Every time he felt pressure, the ball came flying out and he went down like a sack of potatoes.
If Arizona wins, don't we have to talk about them as maybe one of the NFL's best 5 (or so) teams? Damn, I really wish they were healthy.
Vikings over Cardinals, 28-27
Dallas @ New York Giants
The Line: Dallas by 2.5
Hey, another great week 13 match-up! And this one is pretty much New York's season. They need this game. I need them to get it. I'm so, so ready for the Cowboys to collapse. I'm about as excited about that as I am about Christmas. I can't effing wait. It must start on Sunday.
And just to make sure it does happen, I'm picking the Cowboys.
FUCK YOU DALLAS!!
Cowboys over Giants, 45-3
New England @ Miami
The Line: New England by 3.5
Yeah, the Pats'll probably win.
Patriots over Dolphins, 35-20
Baltimore @ Green Bay
The Line: Green Bay by 3
Should be fun! I'll be rooting for the Packers.
Packers over Ravens, 27-17
That's it!
Go Skynards!
Monday, November 23, 2009
A Thanksgiving Feast of Sports Stuff!
First, some general NBA observations;
I hate the Wizards. Seriously, this is my least favorite basketball team of all time. I hate every part of the organization and the entire team. There might be one guy on the entire team I wouldn't run over with my car if I had the opportunity . . . no, scratch that, I'm sure there isn't. How much do I hate the Wizards? Let me count the ways:
1. I hate Ernie Grunfeld. No GM in the NBA has so mastered the art of putting together a collection of overpaid mercenary scrubs. At no point in Grunfeld's not at all distinguished career has he been willing to put any effort into building a team that makes sense from the ground up. Let's start with his time in New York, where he took one of the game's easiest building blocks - a dominant center - and managed to squander his entire career by surrounding him with not-special mercenary veterans and did absolutely nothing in the draft to secure the future of the organization. From 1994 onward, the Knicks used their draft picks on Monty Williams and Charlie Ward in 1994, nobody in 1995, John Wallace, Walter McCarty, and Dontae Jones in 1996, John Thomas in 1997, Demarco Johnson and Sean Marks in 1998, and Frederic Weis and J.R. Koch in 1998. Is anybody surprised the Knicks spent the next decade embarrassing the game of basketball? In 1999, every player on the team except Patrick Ewing was brought in by Grunfeld. Here's that roster: Ewing, Latrell Sprewell, Allan Houston, Ward, Larry Johnson, Marcus Camby, Kurt Thomas, Chris Childs, John Wallace, etc., etc. It was a terrible, top-heavy roster headlined by guys at the wrong position with overlapping skill-sets. I hated that team.
In Milwaukee, he took over a team that already had its talent nucleus in place and did the following: added Lindsay Hunter, Mark Pope, Jerome Kersey, and Greg Foster in 2000; in 2001, he traded Scott Williams and a 1st round pick (Josh Smith) for Aleksander Radojevic and Kevin Willis, signed Anthony Mason's corpse, signed Greg Anthony's corpse, traded for Jamal Sampson, and drafted Marcus Haislip, Dan Gadzuric, and Flip Murray. That same year, he waived Aleksander Radojevic, for whom he'd traded a first round pick. In 2002, he traded Glenn Robinson for Tony Kukoc, Leon Smith, and a pick that turned into T.J. Ford. He then signed Mike Wilks, Kevin Ollie, Laron Profit, and Cedric Henderson, all of whom he waived that same year. He then traded Ray Allen, Flip Murray, Kevin Ollie and a first round draft pick for Desmond Mason and Gary Payton's washed up corpse. In 2003, he drafted (in addition to T.J. Ford) someone named Szymon Szewczyk and Keith Bogans, and then (because he had Gary Payton's corpse at point) he traded Sam Cassell and Earvin Johnson for Anthony Peeler and Joe Smith.
Someone show me a single good move he made in all those years as a General Manager. One time where he shrewdly evaluated talent or added a dynamic player to his own team. To me, it looks like he got fleeced over and over and literally never improved a team he was working for. The guy gave up two first round picks and Ray Allen in two years and only came away with Desmond Mason and Gary Payton. It's no coincidence that neither team has been worth a damn since Grunfeld came and went; he chased out the talented players, replaced them with scrubs, and did nothing in the draft.
Now he's in Washington, and he's accumulated one of the worst rosters in the entire sport. He overpaid for one of the NBA's most overrated stars and has assembled a roster that makes no sense whatsoever, top to bottom.
2. I hate Gilbert Arenas. I mean I really hate Gilbert Arenas. If you can't see everything that's wrong with him as a team's centerpiece, as a starting guard, as a teammate, and as a professional, there's something wrong with you. He has to be the single least efficient offensive focal point in the NBA. As a starting point guard, he makes no sense whatsoever, because he can't guard any opposing point faster than Chauncey Billups (if he had any interest in guarding anybody anyway), he's too small and apparently too important offensively to body up 2-guards, his need to operate with the ball in his hands without creating opportunities for his teammates bogs down the offense, and when his shot isn't falling, he can't do any single other thing well on the court. He'd make sense coming off the bench a la Jamal Crawford (who, incidentally, is the exact same player only healthier, more athletic, and significantly less annoying), because he's a streaky scorer without a natural position who could carry your second unit for a stretch or give a boost to your starters, but his ego would never allow that. He's an abysmal teammate; he hates sharing the ball on offense, he plays terrible, terrible team defense, he's far too goofy and selfish to ever be a leader off the court, and when things go south, he says things like "everyone seems to have hidden agendas around here", which is pretty much exactly what he said last week about the Wizards. And as for professionalism . . . I'm pretty sure we've covered that. He's a joke.
3. Caron Butler is a tough defender who can do a thing or two offensively, but any good team in the NBA would have him playing the Trevor Ariza role; defending perimeter scorers, slashing, spotting up for open threes, never handling the ball and never the focal point of the offense. This season, he's decided to be a big dog and take as many heisted, selfish, ill-advised one-on-one possessions as possible. Screw him.
4. Antawn Jamison has long been one of my least favorite players in the NBA. This guy puts up meaningless numbers and has convinced all the terrible fans around here that he's a pro's pro's pro, a warrior and a team leader and all other kinds of bullshit. First of all, the first time Antawn Jamison took a shot outside of 14 feet in an NBA game should have been the last time. He takes an incredible number of bad shots in every game he plays. Secondly, he's a terrible passer who generally kills the flow of the offense every time he touches the ball because it takes him 5 seconds to figure out what to do next. Third, he can't defend any position in the game of basketball. Jamison is another guy who would never start for a good NBA team. A tweener who takes irresponsible shots, scores in streaks, and can't defend? Sounds like a sixth or seventh man to me.
5. Flip Saunders is like that chronically single girl who's been at every party you've attended for the past few years. You know the one; slightly attractive, not much personality but laughs real loud and drinks a lot. You know, Good Time Sally. She's the girl you hook up with after you finally break up with the girl with whom you had no future but dated for too long anyway, but before you find the right girl and really fall in love. Good Time Sally will drink with you and your buddies, go to all the parties, be fun in bed, and generally hold down the fort and reaffirm your masculinity for a while while you recover your wits after an ugly situation, but we all know she's not the solution. Flip Saunders is not the solution for the Wizards. He can keep them afloat for now, while they try to make sense of this disasterous roster/salary cap situation. I say fuck that. Screw the salary cap. Screw the now. They need to dump every single turd on the roster, fire everyone in the front office, and start completely over from scratch.
6. Everyone else. Seriously. If I were in charge of this team today, there's not a single player I'd clutch tightly. I'd listen to any offer for any player. Do I think Andray Blache and JaVale McGee could be good players on a good team? Sure. They're the only two players I'd even consider keeping. I'd give Gilbert away for a steak sandwich. I'd take literally any expiring deal or 2-year deal in the NBA for Jamison, or any young player at all. Same with Butler. I'd pay double Nick Young's salary if the police would look the other way while I ran him over with my car. I'd trade Brendon Haywood for (I shit you not) a WNBA player. I would pay a team to take Brendon Haywood.
Chris Bosh, you are a turd. For a long time now, I've been waiting to say that. Chris Bosh is a turd. Any team that spends big money on him after this season deserves the contempt of their fans.
I was listening to Mike & Mike in the Morning on ESPN980 a few days ago, and Mike Greenburg said something off-hand to Mike Golic that struck a cord with me; he was talking about pro football players who have to deal with losing, and he made the off-hand comment that most of them had always been on the best teams growing up, and that they were always on the best teams because they were always the best players, and their teams were good because they were good. You know what? That's almost always true in sports. Right up until players get to the professional level, they're always on good teams because they're good enough to make their teams good. In some cases, it's because they're much bigger than the other kids. In most cases, they're smarter and more athletic and harder workers and bigger. When they get to the professional level, the math is a little different because lousy teams usually get the first crack at the best players, so usually the best guys in college take a few seasons to win at the professional level because they're surrounded by a culture of losing. After a certain point, though, special players rise up and start winning with whatever is around them. That time has come and gone for Chris Bosh. That team has had any number of different identities in the time he's been there, and he hasn't been able to make a single one of them into a winner. If he's good enough to be mentioned with LeBron James and Dwayne Wade (guys who are also free-agents after this season and who actually have won with nothing around them), he would have won by now. He can't even get into the playoffs, for crying out loud. We're talking about a young 7-foot forward with athleticism and range here, not Allen Iverson (who also won with nothing). If Chris Bosh is a winner, if he's a centerpiece, if he's a superstar, if he's even an All-Star, he would have elevated that team at least to .500 by now. Instead, you've got a 6-8 basketball team that hasn't won a playoff series since he's been there, with what we're supposed to believe is a bona-fide superstar headliner as their centerpiece. No. Chris Bosh is a turd. I'd pay more for Aaron Brooks, I swear to God.
Now, for some quick NFL picks (I missed the Thanksgiving games, sue me):
Indianapolis @ Houston
The Line: Indianapolis by 3.5
Indy is due. On the other hand, Houston is doomed. Gotta go with the undefeated team. Can't pick against 'em till they lose.
Colts over Texans, 28-27
Cleveland @ Cincinnati
The Line: Cincinnati by 13
Whatever Cleveland's defense is able to do to slow Cincinnati's offense won't matter, because Cincy's D is going to devour Cleveland's offense. Plus, the Bengals should be good and pissed off this week.
Bengals over Browns, 24-9
Chicago @ Minnesota
The Line: Minnesota by 11
Vikings win! If this is a close game, I will very surprised.
Vikings over Bears, 34-17
Washington @ Philadelphia
The Line: Philadelphia by 10
You know what's great? For ten straight quarters of football, the Redskins have been playing like a team with nothing to lose. The coaches aren't quite there, but on the field, I really feel like the players are loose and are leaving it all out there on the field. They've got some swagger. As some dude on ESPN980 pointed out this week, if they play like this the rest of the way, they could win 2 or 3 games down the stretch. I'd take it.
You know what's horribly depressing? That the Redskins' season has come to this.
Philly ought to win comfortably. They beat the Redskins about as soundly as they've been beaten this season, in Washington, weeks ago. Would I be surprised if the Redskins dominate this game from start to finish, on both sides of the ball, and win by 10-13 points? Actually, no. The Eagles are notorious front-runners, and they're more likely to look past a struggling opponent than any other team in the NFL. That, and the Redskins have looked good on both sides of the ball for, like I said, 10 straight quarters of football.
Still, I'm picking the home team.
Eagles over Redskins, 23-17
Miami @ Buffalo
The Line: Miami by 3
Going with the favorite.
Dolphins over Bills, 24-13
Arizona @ Tennessee
The Line: Tennessee by 2
I have not been keeping up very well with NFL news this week. Is Kurt Warner healthy? If he is, and he plays, and he's not doing the whole "Kurt Warner post-concussion meltdown" thing, the Cardinals ought to win, just by gunning their way past Tennessee's still overrated secondary. If not, Tennessee rolls.
Ummmm, he'll probably play, right? Fuck it, I'm taking the Cardinals.
Cardinals over Titans, 28-24
Seattle @ St. Louis
The Line: Seattle by 4
Fuck these teams straight to hell.
Rams over Seahawks, 13-10
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
The Line: Atlanta by 12
Falcons should cruise. We'll get a good look at the Tampa-2 under Raheem Morris this week.
Falcons over Bucs, 31-14
Carolina @ New York Jets
The Line: New York Jets by 3.5
Panthers win. Sanchez continues to flail.
Panthers over Jets, 20-17
Jacksonville @ San Francisco
The Line: San Francisco by 3
San Fran's formula for winning should have been so incredibly simple after they jumped out to that good start this season: pound the ball, limit turnovers, play aggressive defense, win every other game. They'd have won 9,10, or even 11 games that way. Instead, they started flailing around offensively and their defense went to shit. Why? Who knows. I know this much, though: fuck the 49ers.
Jaguars over 49ers, 23-21
Kansas City @ San Diego
The Line: San Diego by 13.5
Chargers win.
Chargers over Chiefs, 41-21
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 7.5
I don't have the first goddamn clue. Baltimore has to win. If Dennis Dixon leads the Steelers to victory over the Ravens in Baltimore, well, FUCK the Ravens.
Ravens over Steelers, 24-14
New England @ New Orleans
The Line: New Orleans by 2
There's one way for New Orleans to win this game: score a lot of points, play from ahead, and turn Tom Brady over at least once in the second half. If they are able to play from ahead, score often, and turn him over in the second half, they'll win.
I think they'll do it.
Saints over Patriots, 38-33
That's all I've got. I thought I had more, but I wrote this bitch over the course of like 6 days, and a lot came and went in that time. Ah well. Oh, right, I think I had a week 11 recap planned. Well fuck that.
Go Skynards!
I hate the Wizards. Seriously, this is my least favorite basketball team of all time. I hate every part of the organization and the entire team. There might be one guy on the entire team I wouldn't run over with my car if I had the opportunity . . . no, scratch that, I'm sure there isn't. How much do I hate the Wizards? Let me count the ways:
1. I hate Ernie Grunfeld. No GM in the NBA has so mastered the art of putting together a collection of overpaid mercenary scrubs. At no point in Grunfeld's not at all distinguished career has he been willing to put any effort into building a team that makes sense from the ground up. Let's start with his time in New York, where he took one of the game's easiest building blocks - a dominant center - and managed to squander his entire career by surrounding him with not-special mercenary veterans and did absolutely nothing in the draft to secure the future of the organization. From 1994 onward, the Knicks used their draft picks on Monty Williams and Charlie Ward in 1994, nobody in 1995, John Wallace, Walter McCarty, and Dontae Jones in 1996, John Thomas in 1997, Demarco Johnson and Sean Marks in 1998, and Frederic Weis and J.R. Koch in 1998. Is anybody surprised the Knicks spent the next decade embarrassing the game of basketball? In 1999, every player on the team except Patrick Ewing was brought in by Grunfeld. Here's that roster: Ewing, Latrell Sprewell, Allan Houston, Ward, Larry Johnson, Marcus Camby, Kurt Thomas, Chris Childs, John Wallace, etc., etc. It was a terrible, top-heavy roster headlined by guys at the wrong position with overlapping skill-sets. I hated that team.
In Milwaukee, he took over a team that already had its talent nucleus in place and did the following: added Lindsay Hunter, Mark Pope, Jerome Kersey, and Greg Foster in 2000; in 2001, he traded Scott Williams and a 1st round pick (Josh Smith) for Aleksander Radojevic and Kevin Willis, signed Anthony Mason's corpse, signed Greg Anthony's corpse, traded for Jamal Sampson, and drafted Marcus Haislip, Dan Gadzuric, and Flip Murray. That same year, he waived Aleksander Radojevic, for whom he'd traded a first round pick. In 2002, he traded Glenn Robinson for Tony Kukoc, Leon Smith, and a pick that turned into T.J. Ford. He then signed Mike Wilks, Kevin Ollie, Laron Profit, and Cedric Henderson, all of whom he waived that same year. He then traded Ray Allen, Flip Murray, Kevin Ollie and a first round draft pick for Desmond Mason and Gary Payton's washed up corpse. In 2003, he drafted (in addition to T.J. Ford) someone named Szymon Szewczyk and Keith Bogans, and then (because he had Gary Payton's corpse at point) he traded Sam Cassell and Earvin Johnson for Anthony Peeler and Joe Smith.
Someone show me a single good move he made in all those years as a General Manager. One time where he shrewdly evaluated talent or added a dynamic player to his own team. To me, it looks like he got fleeced over and over and literally never improved a team he was working for. The guy gave up two first round picks and Ray Allen in two years and only came away with Desmond Mason and Gary Payton. It's no coincidence that neither team has been worth a damn since Grunfeld came and went; he chased out the talented players, replaced them with scrubs, and did nothing in the draft.
Now he's in Washington, and he's accumulated one of the worst rosters in the entire sport. He overpaid for one of the NBA's most overrated stars and has assembled a roster that makes no sense whatsoever, top to bottom.
2. I hate Gilbert Arenas. I mean I really hate Gilbert Arenas. If you can't see everything that's wrong with him as a team's centerpiece, as a starting guard, as a teammate, and as a professional, there's something wrong with you. He has to be the single least efficient offensive focal point in the NBA. As a starting point guard, he makes no sense whatsoever, because he can't guard any opposing point faster than Chauncey Billups (if he had any interest in guarding anybody anyway), he's too small and apparently too important offensively to body up 2-guards, his need to operate with the ball in his hands without creating opportunities for his teammates bogs down the offense, and when his shot isn't falling, he can't do any single other thing well on the court. He'd make sense coming off the bench a la Jamal Crawford (who, incidentally, is the exact same player only healthier, more athletic, and significantly less annoying), because he's a streaky scorer without a natural position who could carry your second unit for a stretch or give a boost to your starters, but his ego would never allow that. He's an abysmal teammate; he hates sharing the ball on offense, he plays terrible, terrible team defense, he's far too goofy and selfish to ever be a leader off the court, and when things go south, he says things like "everyone seems to have hidden agendas around here", which is pretty much exactly what he said last week about the Wizards. And as for professionalism . . . I'm pretty sure we've covered that. He's a joke.
3. Caron Butler is a tough defender who can do a thing or two offensively, but any good team in the NBA would have him playing the Trevor Ariza role; defending perimeter scorers, slashing, spotting up for open threes, never handling the ball and never the focal point of the offense. This season, he's decided to be a big dog and take as many heisted, selfish, ill-advised one-on-one possessions as possible. Screw him.
4. Antawn Jamison has long been one of my least favorite players in the NBA. This guy puts up meaningless numbers and has convinced all the terrible fans around here that he's a pro's pro's pro, a warrior and a team leader and all other kinds of bullshit. First of all, the first time Antawn Jamison took a shot outside of 14 feet in an NBA game should have been the last time. He takes an incredible number of bad shots in every game he plays. Secondly, he's a terrible passer who generally kills the flow of the offense every time he touches the ball because it takes him 5 seconds to figure out what to do next. Third, he can't defend any position in the game of basketball. Jamison is another guy who would never start for a good NBA team. A tweener who takes irresponsible shots, scores in streaks, and can't defend? Sounds like a sixth or seventh man to me.
5. Flip Saunders is like that chronically single girl who's been at every party you've attended for the past few years. You know the one; slightly attractive, not much personality but laughs real loud and drinks a lot. You know, Good Time Sally. She's the girl you hook up with after you finally break up with the girl with whom you had no future but dated for too long anyway, but before you find the right girl and really fall in love. Good Time Sally will drink with you and your buddies, go to all the parties, be fun in bed, and generally hold down the fort and reaffirm your masculinity for a while while you recover your wits after an ugly situation, but we all know she's not the solution. Flip Saunders is not the solution for the Wizards. He can keep them afloat for now, while they try to make sense of this disasterous roster/salary cap situation. I say fuck that. Screw the salary cap. Screw the now. They need to dump every single turd on the roster, fire everyone in the front office, and start completely over from scratch.
6. Everyone else. Seriously. If I were in charge of this team today, there's not a single player I'd clutch tightly. I'd listen to any offer for any player. Do I think Andray Blache and JaVale McGee could be good players on a good team? Sure. They're the only two players I'd even consider keeping. I'd give Gilbert away for a steak sandwich. I'd take literally any expiring deal or 2-year deal in the NBA for Jamison, or any young player at all. Same with Butler. I'd pay double Nick Young's salary if the police would look the other way while I ran him over with my car. I'd trade Brendon Haywood for (I shit you not) a WNBA player. I would pay a team to take Brendon Haywood.
Chris Bosh, you are a turd. For a long time now, I've been waiting to say that. Chris Bosh is a turd. Any team that spends big money on him after this season deserves the contempt of their fans.
I was listening to Mike & Mike in the Morning on ESPN980 a few days ago, and Mike Greenburg said something off-hand to Mike Golic that struck a cord with me; he was talking about pro football players who have to deal with losing, and he made the off-hand comment that most of them had always been on the best teams growing up, and that they were always on the best teams because they were always the best players, and their teams were good because they were good. You know what? That's almost always true in sports. Right up until players get to the professional level, they're always on good teams because they're good enough to make their teams good. In some cases, it's because they're much bigger than the other kids. In most cases, they're smarter and more athletic and harder workers and bigger. When they get to the professional level, the math is a little different because lousy teams usually get the first crack at the best players, so usually the best guys in college take a few seasons to win at the professional level because they're surrounded by a culture of losing. After a certain point, though, special players rise up and start winning with whatever is around them. That time has come and gone for Chris Bosh. That team has had any number of different identities in the time he's been there, and he hasn't been able to make a single one of them into a winner. If he's good enough to be mentioned with LeBron James and Dwayne Wade (guys who are also free-agents after this season and who actually have won with nothing around them), he would have won by now. He can't even get into the playoffs, for crying out loud. We're talking about a young 7-foot forward with athleticism and range here, not Allen Iverson (who also won with nothing). If Chris Bosh is a winner, if he's a centerpiece, if he's a superstar, if he's even an All-Star, he would have elevated that team at least to .500 by now. Instead, you've got a 6-8 basketball team that hasn't won a playoff series since he's been there, with what we're supposed to believe is a bona-fide superstar headliner as their centerpiece. No. Chris Bosh is a turd. I'd pay more for Aaron Brooks, I swear to God.
Now, for some quick NFL picks (I missed the Thanksgiving games, sue me):
Indianapolis @ Houston
The Line: Indianapolis by 3.5
Indy is due. On the other hand, Houston is doomed. Gotta go with the undefeated team. Can't pick against 'em till they lose.
Colts over Texans, 28-27
Cleveland @ Cincinnati
The Line: Cincinnati by 13
Whatever Cleveland's defense is able to do to slow Cincinnati's offense won't matter, because Cincy's D is going to devour Cleveland's offense. Plus, the Bengals should be good and pissed off this week.
Bengals over Browns, 24-9
Chicago @ Minnesota
The Line: Minnesota by 11
Vikings win! If this is a close game, I will very surprised.
Vikings over Bears, 34-17
Washington @ Philadelphia
The Line: Philadelphia by 10
You know what's great? For ten straight quarters of football, the Redskins have been playing like a team with nothing to lose. The coaches aren't quite there, but on the field, I really feel like the players are loose and are leaving it all out there on the field. They've got some swagger. As some dude on ESPN980 pointed out this week, if they play like this the rest of the way, they could win 2 or 3 games down the stretch. I'd take it.
You know what's horribly depressing? That the Redskins' season has come to this.
Philly ought to win comfortably. They beat the Redskins about as soundly as they've been beaten this season, in Washington, weeks ago. Would I be surprised if the Redskins dominate this game from start to finish, on both sides of the ball, and win by 10-13 points? Actually, no. The Eagles are notorious front-runners, and they're more likely to look past a struggling opponent than any other team in the NFL. That, and the Redskins have looked good on both sides of the ball for, like I said, 10 straight quarters of football.
Still, I'm picking the home team.
Eagles over Redskins, 23-17
Miami @ Buffalo
The Line: Miami by 3
Going with the favorite.
Dolphins over Bills, 24-13
Arizona @ Tennessee
The Line: Tennessee by 2
I have not been keeping up very well with NFL news this week. Is Kurt Warner healthy? If he is, and he plays, and he's not doing the whole "Kurt Warner post-concussion meltdown" thing, the Cardinals ought to win, just by gunning their way past Tennessee's still overrated secondary. If not, Tennessee rolls.
Ummmm, he'll probably play, right? Fuck it, I'm taking the Cardinals.
Cardinals over Titans, 28-24
Seattle @ St. Louis
The Line: Seattle by 4
Fuck these teams straight to hell.
Rams over Seahawks, 13-10
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
The Line: Atlanta by 12
Falcons should cruise. We'll get a good look at the Tampa-2 under Raheem Morris this week.
Falcons over Bucs, 31-14
Carolina @ New York Jets
The Line: New York Jets by 3.5
Panthers win. Sanchez continues to flail.
Panthers over Jets, 20-17
Jacksonville @ San Francisco
The Line: San Francisco by 3
San Fran's formula for winning should have been so incredibly simple after they jumped out to that good start this season: pound the ball, limit turnovers, play aggressive defense, win every other game. They'd have won 9,10, or even 11 games that way. Instead, they started flailing around offensively and their defense went to shit. Why? Who knows. I know this much, though: fuck the 49ers.
Jaguars over 49ers, 23-21
Kansas City @ San Diego
The Line: San Diego by 13.5
Chargers win.
Chargers over Chiefs, 41-21
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 7.5
I don't have the first goddamn clue. Baltimore has to win. If Dennis Dixon leads the Steelers to victory over the Ravens in Baltimore, well, FUCK the Ravens.
Ravens over Steelers, 24-14
New England @ New Orleans
The Line: New Orleans by 2
There's one way for New Orleans to win this game: score a lot of points, play from ahead, and turn Tom Brady over at least once in the second half. If they are able to play from ahead, score often, and turn him over in the second half, they'll win.
I think they'll do it.
Saints over Patriots, 38-33
That's all I've got. I thought I had more, but I wrote this bitch over the course of like 6 days, and a lot came and went in that time. Ah well. Oh, right, I think I had a week 11 recap planned. Well fuck that.
Go Skynards!
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Week 6 in Review, Plus Week 7 Picks
I didn't watch even remotely enough football on Sunday to do any kind of proper re-cap of the Week 6 games. To be honest, I couldn't even tell you most of the match-ups, let alone what actually took place in the games. There are a few reasons; I didn't do a picks post, so I wasn't as aware of the match-ups as I usually am; the Redskins completely imploded, which took the taste out of my mouth for NFL football pretty much all Sunday; and I was at the Redskins game, celebrating both my wife's birthday and our 5th Anniversary. What a joyous celebration that was; next year, I'll take it a step further and hang myself.
So, instead of doing a full NFL re-cap, I'm just going to ramble and wander a bit on the topic of the Redskins.
Chiefs over Redskins, 14-6
(I did not make any picks in Week 6)
I purchased my tickets on StubHub Friday evening. I had a hunch good seats could be had for this game for relatively cheap, especially at the last minute. See, it had been raining and the weather was absolutely dismal in the last few days of the work-week, so I figured there wouldn't be a whole lot of interest in tickets for an outdoor game. Second of all, it's a non-division game, against a team with very little local following. Third (and I can't stress this enough), Redskins fans are about as disillusioned and disgusted by the current state of their franchise as they've ever been, and in this economy, with these ticket prices, in a stadium that large, well, you do the math.
So we wound up with 50-yard line aisle seats about 24 rows back from the field, about 8 rows in front of the owners box. If the crowd had been a bit smaller, we would have heard Dan Snyder's conversation in the box throughout the game. I paid about $80 a piece for those tickets, which makes them officially not cheap, but compared to their regular prices, that's an unbelievable bargain. I was feeling pretty good about this, especially when the weather report had the rain coming to a stop about 40 minutes before kick-off. Somehow, we'd come away with nearly perfect seats on the home half of the stadium for what should have been a get-healthy win, and the weather was turning our way.
Stupidly, we left for the stadium on time but with only about $8 in singles stuffed into our collective pockets. That's a problem, because parking at FedEx Field is ridiculously expensive, and if you don't already have parking passes, you must have cash to pay for parking within (I shit you not) about 15 miles of the stadium. And we're not talking chump change, here; I wasn't the guy with $8 who needed $15. I was the guy with $8 who needed at least $35, and that was for an off-brand parking lot manned by shady Ethiopians, where I'd have to find a spot on a big, grassy hill ridiculously ill-suited to parking for cars smaller than a Hummer.
Of course, this ain't Disney World, which means the signage and flow of the whole thing is confusing as all hell. You're basically on top of the stadium before you realize you need to quadruple your cash on hand in order to park, by which time it is virtually impossible to get turned around and headed back towards civilization, which is roughly a billion light years away and is similarly inadequately signed. I needed a shady Ethiopian to halt no fewer than four lanes of traffic and put his life in immediate mortal peril so we could access some gravelly off-shoot, which may or may not have led directly to The Blair Witch Project, but had the happy distinction of, at some point, at least leading off of Redskins' property. Sometime later, we happened upon the real world, found a gas station with an ATM, and had the appropriate amount of cash in our pockets to then return to the stadium and enjoy the game. Of course, there's no way back to the stadium from civilization (why should there be?). Did I break about 15 different laws just to get back in the neighborhood of the stadium? You bet.
Once you park, however, it's a quick little walk over to FedEx Field, and FedEx is actually a fairly easy place to navigate, even with construction fences guarding what looked like a modest refurbishment to the exterior. We found our tickets, walked most of the wrong way around the stadium to find our section, then found our seats (or rather, the nearest set of unoccupied seats in the section, which turned out to be significantly better than the ones I'd purchased). All in all, we missed a drive for each team and a Clinton Portis fumble. All was well.
Now, I've known this for a while, from listening to Redskins radio and occasionally reading and frequenting Redskins forums and chats, but experiencing it in person is a bit different; Redskins fans are unanimously furious about the state of their team. And there's something different, too, about experiencing that anger in person, at the stadium, right next to the owner, surrounded by normal (looking) folks in Redskins beanies and scarves, when you've just forked over more than $200 (with tax) for the privilege of watching your home team suck and die; it feels a thousand times more justified when you're there at the source. When I hear it on the radio, I almost always just flip the channel. In general, I have no patience for entitled sports fans and their bitching. On the internet, on television, and on the radio, I have uninterrupted contempt for angry asshole Redskins fans. At the stadium, though, it was a completely different experience. Suddenly, I was connected to the mechanism that ties fans directly to their team, and the connection brought with it a whole new range of feelings about this franchise. When you're there, especially if you're worth a damn, you take ownership over your role in helping the home team. You stand up and scream yourself hoarse on third downs, you wave your arms to the crowd, you applaud the positives, you try to do your best to reign in the clueless fans around you who want to yell and clap when the offense is on the field. You're interacting with the team, with the game, and you've paid handsomely for the right. It's the payment part, obviously, that brings home the connection, though. Sports fans pour untold millions, or even billions, of dollars into their teams. We spend our entire lives caring passionately about them. In many cases, those teams become a strong part of the local culture and a tradition that is carried between generations. Sitting in that stadium on a cold, windy, awful-looking Sunday afternoon, the history and silly-yet-significant tradition of the Washington Redskins and their link to this area were hammering me from all angles.
For the first time in maybe my whole life, I now have a feeling of righteous anger and, yes, entitlement regarding the Washington Redskins. Dammit, Skins fans paid for that stadium. We're paying for the players. We're buying the merchandise. We're pouring our guts out for home dates. We're engendering this passion in the next generation of Redskins fans, ensuring the team remains profitable well off into the future. Ridiculously, we hold ourselves accountable as fans for our level of commitment. I'm sorry, but that buys us something. It does. Owners, players, coaches, PR people . . . they owe us something. We are the lifeblood of their endeavor, and it's our tradition they're using to rake in their fortunes. When every player and coach and owner and executive, everyone associated with this team is long dead and forgotten, there will still be a strong culture and tradition surrounding the Washington football team, just as they'll still be blowing up paper mache sculptures for Las Falles in Valencia 200 years from now. Are there just a few select people who make those sculptures, and fewer still who organize and run the festival? Sure. But the tradition does not belong to them. It belongs less to them than it does to the viewer, because without the viewer . . . well, you get the point.
So I'm sitting there in the stadium, taking it all in, and around me on all sides are incredibly angry people. Many of them are drunk beyond the ability to regulate their behavior, but their anger is real and serious. It's riot anger. And yes, they're angry at Jason Campbell. When he bounces an out-route or checks down on 3rd and long, their anger turns into either sarcasm or rage. They're angry at Jim Zorn, but generally in a less certain, less vocal way. They hate the playcalling, but they know enough to know they can't call an NFL game, so they're a bit more quiet about it. They're angry at DeAngelo Hall for being a lousy cover corner who can't tackle for shit and looks like he's tiptoeing around out there. They're quite angry at Albert Haynesworth. If his hand goes anywhere remotely near his hips at any point during a game, they're all over him like flies on shit. But there's something loving about the anger they direct towards the field, as strange and gay as that sounds. They pick on their players and coaches, but they'll applaud gratefully when and if they produce on the field. Ultimately, rational Redskins fans want their team to do well and win, and they'll cheer just about anybody out there who is honestly working towards those goals.
The anger directed towards the owner's box, however, is a completely different story. I'm not kidding when I report that there were dozens if not hundreds of fans around us, just in the lower bowl, who spent no more than a tenth of their time watching or caring about the game at all, the rest of the time spent shrieking in unrestrained rage at Daniel Snyder and Vinny Cerrato. One guy to our left might have turned away from the owner's box for 30 seconds in the entire game. Redskins fans have long passed the point of distrusting the owner, passed the point of no longer affording him the benefit of the doubt, long passed the point of giving him points for wanting to win and being willing to spend a lot of money to win. Redskins fans have rounded the bend on being willing to forgive Snyder for all the disorganization and stupidity and failure that has defined his ownership of the Redskins, and are quickly closing in on the point where some one or some group actually attempts an assassination. I wish I were kidding. If a full-blown riot had broken out inside FedEx field, complete with people hurling burning debris into the owners box and literally attempting to kill Snyder, I would not have been surprised at all. Horrified, but not surprised.
There is nothing justifiable or defensible about homicidal rage, but tradition is tradition, and the same passion that makes the Redskins such an incredibly profitable franchise also makes their fans deranged, volatile lunatics. Up to the point where Dan Snyder's personal safety is at risk, I can defend this; who the hell is this guy to fuck around and experiment with our proud tradition? We were here before him, and we'll be here after him, and all he's doing is molesting a proud piece of our local culture, poisoning and fracturing and maiming it and making it something to be ashamed of. What else is there? Right or wrong, for better or worse, this team is a part of our culture, and this guy is making it an embarrassment.
The first quarter progressed pretty much the way the last few have for the Redskins; they barely held onto the ball at all, the defense generated a promising pass-rush but was inevitably let down over and over again by the secondary, and though neither team scored, the Redskins spent the whole time backed up on the losing end of the battle for field position. Nobody was encouraged at all.
The second quarter was even worse. The offense was completely out of synch. The Redskins have absolutely nothing working on offense. Every passing play is a disaster. The offensive line is about as effective at slowing the rush as an inch and a half of cool water, Clinton Portis can't make anybody miss and has no explosion whatsoever. Washington's receivers have the worst body language I've ever seen on a football field. They run up to their break, then they sag and just sort of loaf around; they're not expecting the ball and they know they aren't open. Jason Campbell looks totally rattled in the pocket, and his mechanics are getting worse every Sunday. On the opposite side of the ball, Washington's defense in the second quarter started to sag a bit, and the Chiefs found themselves repeatedly in scoring position or starting drives near midfield and only turning the ball over when wide-open receivers dropped well-thrown balls. I think everyone in the stadium knew where this one was headed by the time Jim Zorn threw away three timeouts in 15 yards and blew any chance the Redskins had of scoring before halftime.
When Campbell's desperation heave was intercepted at the one to end the half, the boo-birds came out in full force. In a matter of seconds, however, they were turned away from the field and up towards the owner's box. Seconds later, boos turned into a chant of "Sell the team", which lasted a good 5 minutes and brought nervous smiles to the faces of the local broadcast team, uncomfortably seated a mere 10 feet over from the owner himself.
I have a rule about not booing the home team. I will not boo the players on the field, not as long as they're wearing my team's uniform. I will sometimes boo a coach, but only for a bad decision. For instance, I'll give a little grief for punting on 4th and 1 from inside your opponent's territory, but it's not "I hate you, coach, go to hell!" It's about expressing my light-hearted disapproval of the decision. On the other hand, I have no qualms whatsoever about booing Daniel Snyder and Vinny Cerrato, so I was in there leading the section. I can really project when I want to, and I was seated close enough to the box and high enough up that, when I waved my arms for more noise, I got more noise, and there's no way Snyder didn't hear my voice ringing above the chorus. I like to think about that, about speaking directly to this guy in a loud, angry voice. I did it, even if he was cowering in the back of his box, where we could only see the top of his head. Despite the awfulness of the first half, we fans were in pretty high spirits headed into the second half. We'd had a talk with the owner, expressed our feelings for him as directly as possible, experienced a moment of solidarity.
Then, Todd Collins came out with Washington's offense, and I stopped enjoying the game at all.
You saw the rest. The exhausted fans left in the stadium cheered sarcastically at the sight of him, but expressed to each other their pity of Campbell for ultimately bearing the worst part of the responsibility for the team's awfulness. Few if any in that stadium thought Collins gave the Redskins a better chance at a victory, but were energized by the sight of something different out there. I was not among them in that regard. I was horribly depressed, to the point of not really even being able to speak about it. Collins played terribly, Washington continued to suck, and eventually the better team won.
In the days since that game, Zorn has had play-calling duties taken from him by his utterly clueless bosses. Jason Campbell has been reinserted as the starting quarterback. A new left tackle has been signed from the scrap heap. Vinny Cerrato finally publicly asserted Zorn's job security through the rest of the season, but somehow managed to emasculate him further and embarrass the team further in the process. There's also talk of prying Joe Gibbs out of retirement for a Bill Parcell's-like management role with the franchise.
Here's where I stand with these Washington Redskins; the entire team needs to be torn down, sold off for parts, and rebuilt. There might be 5 guys on the whole team worth keeping through that rebuilding; Brian Orakpo, Jeremy Jarmon, Chris Cooley, Chris Horton, and one or two of the sophomore receiving options. Everybody else either must go, will go, or should go. Jason Campbell deserves better than this, so he's gone. Nobody on the offensive line is worth paying a veteran's salary. The veteran receivers offer no value to this team. Portis is completely washed up, and he doesn't have a valuable replacement anywhere on this roster. Every member of the defensive line not named Orakpo or Jarmon should go. London Fletcher deserves better, he should go, and there are no other linebackers worth holding onto, but I'd take a flyer on keeping Chris Wilson. Laron Landry is a bust. The corners are awful, but I'd see about keeping Justin Tryon and Kevin Barnes, because they're young, fast, and cheap. The entire rest of the organization should be blown all the way up and rebuilt from the bottom, complete with 3-4 years of bad, losing football and lots of draft picks.
In the meantime, I cannot root for this team. I can't. If Jason Campbell is in the game, I'll root for their passing game. I'll root for their young players and good guys the same way I do with any other NFL team. I can no longer support this franchise in its current state. To support them is to indirectly support their abysmal leadership structure and systemic dysfunction, and I can't do that. It puts me in a bad mood and keeps me there, and nobody needs that. I feel sad about detaching myself from this part of Washington's local culture. Once upon a time, I watched Redskins football with my mom and dad on Sundays, with uncles and stepdads and grandparents and friends and siblings. I shook the hands of Redskins in parking lots and grocery stores and Blockbusters, imagined I could combine the unique talents of Art Monk and Gary Clark and become another member of the Posse. It's always silly, it has never been anything but silly, but it used to feel good. Why would anybody keep something silly like this in their lives if it just makes them feel rotten and angry for half the year?
So there it is. I'm still a football fan. I just no longer count myself among the Redskins' passionate fan-base. I don't care enough to be as angry as I was on Sunday, and I'm not stupid enough to ignore the shameful, disgraceful dysfunction of this franchise.
I'll put up some picks for Week 7 later on today. I'm still interested in the 2009 season, but I'm much, much more interested in the off-season, the draft, and the faint hope that some sort of light will emerge at the end of the tunnel for this wayward, disaster of a team.
Peace!
So, instead of doing a full NFL re-cap, I'm just going to ramble and wander a bit on the topic of the Redskins.
Chiefs over Redskins, 14-6
(I did not make any picks in Week 6)
I purchased my tickets on StubHub Friday evening. I had a hunch good seats could be had for this game for relatively cheap, especially at the last minute. See, it had been raining and the weather was absolutely dismal in the last few days of the work-week, so I figured there wouldn't be a whole lot of interest in tickets for an outdoor game. Second of all, it's a non-division game, against a team with very little local following. Third (and I can't stress this enough), Redskins fans are about as disillusioned and disgusted by the current state of their franchise as they've ever been, and in this economy, with these ticket prices, in a stadium that large, well, you do the math.
So we wound up with 50-yard line aisle seats about 24 rows back from the field, about 8 rows in front of the owners box. If the crowd had been a bit smaller, we would have heard Dan Snyder's conversation in the box throughout the game. I paid about $80 a piece for those tickets, which makes them officially not cheap, but compared to their regular prices, that's an unbelievable bargain. I was feeling pretty good about this, especially when the weather report had the rain coming to a stop about 40 minutes before kick-off. Somehow, we'd come away with nearly perfect seats on the home half of the stadium for what should have been a get-healthy win, and the weather was turning our way.
Stupidly, we left for the stadium on time but with only about $8 in singles stuffed into our collective pockets. That's a problem, because parking at FedEx Field is ridiculously expensive, and if you don't already have parking passes, you must have cash to pay for parking within (I shit you not) about 15 miles of the stadium. And we're not talking chump change, here; I wasn't the guy with $8 who needed $15. I was the guy with $8 who needed at least $35, and that was for an off-brand parking lot manned by shady Ethiopians, where I'd have to find a spot on a big, grassy hill ridiculously ill-suited to parking for cars smaller than a Hummer.
Of course, this ain't Disney World, which means the signage and flow of the whole thing is confusing as all hell. You're basically on top of the stadium before you realize you need to quadruple your cash on hand in order to park, by which time it is virtually impossible to get turned around and headed back towards civilization, which is roughly a billion light years away and is similarly inadequately signed. I needed a shady Ethiopian to halt no fewer than four lanes of traffic and put his life in immediate mortal peril so we could access some gravelly off-shoot, which may or may not have led directly to The Blair Witch Project, but had the happy distinction of, at some point, at least leading off of Redskins' property. Sometime later, we happened upon the real world, found a gas station with an ATM, and had the appropriate amount of cash in our pockets to then return to the stadium and enjoy the game. Of course, there's no way back to the stadium from civilization (why should there be?). Did I break about 15 different laws just to get back in the neighborhood of the stadium? You bet.
Once you park, however, it's a quick little walk over to FedEx Field, and FedEx is actually a fairly easy place to navigate, even with construction fences guarding what looked like a modest refurbishment to the exterior. We found our tickets, walked most of the wrong way around the stadium to find our section, then found our seats (or rather, the nearest set of unoccupied seats in the section, which turned out to be significantly better than the ones I'd purchased). All in all, we missed a drive for each team and a Clinton Portis fumble. All was well.
Now, I've known this for a while, from listening to Redskins radio and occasionally reading and frequenting Redskins forums and chats, but experiencing it in person is a bit different; Redskins fans are unanimously furious about the state of their team. And there's something different, too, about experiencing that anger in person, at the stadium, right next to the owner, surrounded by normal (looking) folks in Redskins beanies and scarves, when you've just forked over more than $200 (with tax) for the privilege of watching your home team suck and die; it feels a thousand times more justified when you're there at the source. When I hear it on the radio, I almost always just flip the channel. In general, I have no patience for entitled sports fans and their bitching. On the internet, on television, and on the radio, I have uninterrupted contempt for angry asshole Redskins fans. At the stadium, though, it was a completely different experience. Suddenly, I was connected to the mechanism that ties fans directly to their team, and the connection brought with it a whole new range of feelings about this franchise. When you're there, especially if you're worth a damn, you take ownership over your role in helping the home team. You stand up and scream yourself hoarse on third downs, you wave your arms to the crowd, you applaud the positives, you try to do your best to reign in the clueless fans around you who want to yell and clap when the offense is on the field. You're interacting with the team, with the game, and you've paid handsomely for the right. It's the payment part, obviously, that brings home the connection, though. Sports fans pour untold millions, or even billions, of dollars into their teams. We spend our entire lives caring passionately about them. In many cases, those teams become a strong part of the local culture and a tradition that is carried between generations. Sitting in that stadium on a cold, windy, awful-looking Sunday afternoon, the history and silly-yet-significant tradition of the Washington Redskins and their link to this area were hammering me from all angles.
For the first time in maybe my whole life, I now have a feeling of righteous anger and, yes, entitlement regarding the Washington Redskins. Dammit, Skins fans paid for that stadium. We're paying for the players. We're buying the merchandise. We're pouring our guts out for home dates. We're engendering this passion in the next generation of Redskins fans, ensuring the team remains profitable well off into the future. Ridiculously, we hold ourselves accountable as fans for our level of commitment. I'm sorry, but that buys us something. It does. Owners, players, coaches, PR people . . . they owe us something. We are the lifeblood of their endeavor, and it's our tradition they're using to rake in their fortunes. When every player and coach and owner and executive, everyone associated with this team is long dead and forgotten, there will still be a strong culture and tradition surrounding the Washington football team, just as they'll still be blowing up paper mache sculptures for Las Falles in Valencia 200 years from now. Are there just a few select people who make those sculptures, and fewer still who organize and run the festival? Sure. But the tradition does not belong to them. It belongs less to them than it does to the viewer, because without the viewer . . . well, you get the point.
So I'm sitting there in the stadium, taking it all in, and around me on all sides are incredibly angry people. Many of them are drunk beyond the ability to regulate their behavior, but their anger is real and serious. It's riot anger. And yes, they're angry at Jason Campbell. When he bounces an out-route or checks down on 3rd and long, their anger turns into either sarcasm or rage. They're angry at Jim Zorn, but generally in a less certain, less vocal way. They hate the playcalling, but they know enough to know they can't call an NFL game, so they're a bit more quiet about it. They're angry at DeAngelo Hall for being a lousy cover corner who can't tackle for shit and looks like he's tiptoeing around out there. They're quite angry at Albert Haynesworth. If his hand goes anywhere remotely near his hips at any point during a game, they're all over him like flies on shit. But there's something loving about the anger they direct towards the field, as strange and gay as that sounds. They pick on their players and coaches, but they'll applaud gratefully when and if they produce on the field. Ultimately, rational Redskins fans want their team to do well and win, and they'll cheer just about anybody out there who is honestly working towards those goals.
The anger directed towards the owner's box, however, is a completely different story. I'm not kidding when I report that there were dozens if not hundreds of fans around us, just in the lower bowl, who spent no more than a tenth of their time watching or caring about the game at all, the rest of the time spent shrieking in unrestrained rage at Daniel Snyder and Vinny Cerrato. One guy to our left might have turned away from the owner's box for 30 seconds in the entire game. Redskins fans have long passed the point of distrusting the owner, passed the point of no longer affording him the benefit of the doubt, long passed the point of giving him points for wanting to win and being willing to spend a lot of money to win. Redskins fans have rounded the bend on being willing to forgive Snyder for all the disorganization and stupidity and failure that has defined his ownership of the Redskins, and are quickly closing in on the point where some one or some group actually attempts an assassination. I wish I were kidding. If a full-blown riot had broken out inside FedEx field, complete with people hurling burning debris into the owners box and literally attempting to kill Snyder, I would not have been surprised at all. Horrified, but not surprised.
There is nothing justifiable or defensible about homicidal rage, but tradition is tradition, and the same passion that makes the Redskins such an incredibly profitable franchise also makes their fans deranged, volatile lunatics. Up to the point where Dan Snyder's personal safety is at risk, I can defend this; who the hell is this guy to fuck around and experiment with our proud tradition? We were here before him, and we'll be here after him, and all he's doing is molesting a proud piece of our local culture, poisoning and fracturing and maiming it and making it something to be ashamed of. What else is there? Right or wrong, for better or worse, this team is a part of our culture, and this guy is making it an embarrassment.
The first quarter progressed pretty much the way the last few have for the Redskins; they barely held onto the ball at all, the defense generated a promising pass-rush but was inevitably let down over and over again by the secondary, and though neither team scored, the Redskins spent the whole time backed up on the losing end of the battle for field position. Nobody was encouraged at all.
The second quarter was even worse. The offense was completely out of synch. The Redskins have absolutely nothing working on offense. Every passing play is a disaster. The offensive line is about as effective at slowing the rush as an inch and a half of cool water, Clinton Portis can't make anybody miss and has no explosion whatsoever. Washington's receivers have the worst body language I've ever seen on a football field. They run up to their break, then they sag and just sort of loaf around; they're not expecting the ball and they know they aren't open. Jason Campbell looks totally rattled in the pocket, and his mechanics are getting worse every Sunday. On the opposite side of the ball, Washington's defense in the second quarter started to sag a bit, and the Chiefs found themselves repeatedly in scoring position or starting drives near midfield and only turning the ball over when wide-open receivers dropped well-thrown balls. I think everyone in the stadium knew where this one was headed by the time Jim Zorn threw away three timeouts in 15 yards and blew any chance the Redskins had of scoring before halftime.
When Campbell's desperation heave was intercepted at the one to end the half, the boo-birds came out in full force. In a matter of seconds, however, they were turned away from the field and up towards the owner's box. Seconds later, boos turned into a chant of "Sell the team", which lasted a good 5 minutes and brought nervous smiles to the faces of the local broadcast team, uncomfortably seated a mere 10 feet over from the owner himself.
I have a rule about not booing the home team. I will not boo the players on the field, not as long as they're wearing my team's uniform. I will sometimes boo a coach, but only for a bad decision. For instance, I'll give a little grief for punting on 4th and 1 from inside your opponent's territory, but it's not "I hate you, coach, go to hell!" It's about expressing my light-hearted disapproval of the decision. On the other hand, I have no qualms whatsoever about booing Daniel Snyder and Vinny Cerrato, so I was in there leading the section. I can really project when I want to, and I was seated close enough to the box and high enough up that, when I waved my arms for more noise, I got more noise, and there's no way Snyder didn't hear my voice ringing above the chorus. I like to think about that, about speaking directly to this guy in a loud, angry voice. I did it, even if he was cowering in the back of his box, where we could only see the top of his head. Despite the awfulness of the first half, we fans were in pretty high spirits headed into the second half. We'd had a talk with the owner, expressed our feelings for him as directly as possible, experienced a moment of solidarity.
Then, Todd Collins came out with Washington's offense, and I stopped enjoying the game at all.
You saw the rest. The exhausted fans left in the stadium cheered sarcastically at the sight of him, but expressed to each other their pity of Campbell for ultimately bearing the worst part of the responsibility for the team's awfulness. Few if any in that stadium thought Collins gave the Redskins a better chance at a victory, but were energized by the sight of something different out there. I was not among them in that regard. I was horribly depressed, to the point of not really even being able to speak about it. Collins played terribly, Washington continued to suck, and eventually the better team won.
In the days since that game, Zorn has had play-calling duties taken from him by his utterly clueless bosses. Jason Campbell has been reinserted as the starting quarterback. A new left tackle has been signed from the scrap heap. Vinny Cerrato finally publicly asserted Zorn's job security through the rest of the season, but somehow managed to emasculate him further and embarrass the team further in the process. There's also talk of prying Joe Gibbs out of retirement for a Bill Parcell's-like management role with the franchise.
Here's where I stand with these Washington Redskins; the entire team needs to be torn down, sold off for parts, and rebuilt. There might be 5 guys on the whole team worth keeping through that rebuilding; Brian Orakpo, Jeremy Jarmon, Chris Cooley, Chris Horton, and one or two of the sophomore receiving options. Everybody else either must go, will go, or should go. Jason Campbell deserves better than this, so he's gone. Nobody on the offensive line is worth paying a veteran's salary. The veteran receivers offer no value to this team. Portis is completely washed up, and he doesn't have a valuable replacement anywhere on this roster. Every member of the defensive line not named Orakpo or Jarmon should go. London Fletcher deserves better, he should go, and there are no other linebackers worth holding onto, but I'd take a flyer on keeping Chris Wilson. Laron Landry is a bust. The corners are awful, but I'd see about keeping Justin Tryon and Kevin Barnes, because they're young, fast, and cheap. The entire rest of the organization should be blown all the way up and rebuilt from the bottom, complete with 3-4 years of bad, losing football and lots of draft picks.
In the meantime, I cannot root for this team. I can't. If Jason Campbell is in the game, I'll root for their passing game. I'll root for their young players and good guys the same way I do with any other NFL team. I can no longer support this franchise in its current state. To support them is to indirectly support their abysmal leadership structure and systemic dysfunction, and I can't do that. It puts me in a bad mood and keeps me there, and nobody needs that. I feel sad about detaching myself from this part of Washington's local culture. Once upon a time, I watched Redskins football with my mom and dad on Sundays, with uncles and stepdads and grandparents and friends and siblings. I shook the hands of Redskins in parking lots and grocery stores and Blockbusters, imagined I could combine the unique talents of Art Monk and Gary Clark and become another member of the Posse. It's always silly, it has never been anything but silly, but it used to feel good. Why would anybody keep something silly like this in their lives if it just makes them feel rotten and angry for half the year?
So there it is. I'm still a football fan. I just no longer count myself among the Redskins' passionate fan-base. I don't care enough to be as angry as I was on Sunday, and I'm not stupid enough to ignore the shameful, disgraceful dysfunction of this franchise.
I'll put up some picks for Week 7 later on today. I'm still interested in the 2009 season, but I'm much, much more interested in the off-season, the draft, and the faint hope that some sort of light will emerge at the end of the tunnel for this wayward, disaster of a team.
Peace!
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Week 5 in Review
I'm going to have to keep this brief. I don't have a whole shit-load of time for this re-cap.
And with that rousing introduction, off we go!
Bengals over Ravens, 17-14
My Pick: Ravens over Bengals, 27-17
Okay, officially, the Bengals are real. And I just have to bump the Ravens down the rankings a bit. I still think they're a top 6 or 7 team, but they've lost on consecutive weeks and both their offense and defense have looked less dominant each of the last two weeks.
Panthers over Redskins, 20-17
My Pick: Panthers over Redskins, 20-17
Ding ding ding ding ding!
Nailed it, bitches.
Look, I don't care if they interpreted the rule correctly; the officials hosed the Redskins on Sunday. That rule is absolutely absurd, and the person who wrote it should be dipped into boiling oil until their insides erupt out of their eye-sockets.
The playcalling was much, much better on Sunday (except for that motherfucking stretch run from the two yard line. Every time the Redskins call that in short-yardage situations, I want to tear my angry face off and mail it to Redskins Park), and the defense kept the pressure on for most of the afternoon. Ultimately, it was terrible pass protection, uneven run blocking, and one horrific rule that doomed the Skins. Like I said, they really aren't ready to beat competent teams on the road.
Browns over Bills, 6-3
My Pick: Bills over Browns, with a real NFL football score. See, I thought this was a FOOTBALL game.
Turns out, some guy on the Browns baseball team is in some kind of 2-17 slump. Bummer.
Steelers over Lions, 28-20
My Pick: Steelers over Lions, 31-24
I said they'd cover.
Cowboys over Chiefs, 26-20
My Pick: Cowboys over Chiefs, 20-14
I'm not at all afraid of the Cowboys. The Chiefs had every opportunity to win this game, and in fact should have gotten the victory. For whatever reason, they couldn't tackle Miles Austin for shit. How bad do you think Roy Williams feels right now? Miles Austin was a starter for one week and he caught 10 balls for 250 yards. Roy Williams has 11 catches for 214 yards on the SEASON. What an overrated bum.
Vikins over Rams, 38-10
My Pick: Vikins over Rams, 28-10
You know, the bottom part of the NFL is really, really terrible this season.
Giants over Raiders, 44-7
My Pick: Giants over Raiders, 27-6
Eli Manning played, and played well, but they really didn't need him out there at all. David Carr did fine as a fill-in, and they would have won handily even if he'd started. Hell, they would have won if David Hasselhoff had started. There's only one person on Earth the Giants couldn't have won with, and that person started at quarterback for the Oakland Raiders.
Eagles over Bucs, 33-14
My Pick: Eagles over Bucs, 23-16
Yes, I scoffed at the idea of the Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys being favored by a combined 38.5 points. Turned out the Giants alone won by 37 points, then the Eagles won by 19. Kinda makes it even worse that I'm a Redskins fan.
Falcons over 49ers, 45-10
My Pick: 49ers over Falcons, 17-14
You know, I'm happy with this result. I still think the 49ers are a good team, but I'm happy to know the Falcons are that much better than the 49ers.
Cardinals over Texans, 28-21
My Pick: Cardinals over Texans, 35-31
Meh. These teams bore me to death.
Broncos over Patriots, 20-17
My Pick: Broncos over Patriots, 26-23
Am I the shit or what? I had a good weekend, actually. I nailed the spirit of 8 games in week 5. I picked an exact score, and was within a point of picking the exact spread of 5 different games. This was only my second best pick, actually.
Seahawks over Jaguars, 41-0
My Pick: Jaguars over Seahawks, 27-20
This was my worst, by far. Jacksonville had no business being out there.
Colts over Titans, 31-9
My Pick: Colts over Titans, 24-20
Wow, how about a no-show from Tennessee? Of all the things one might guess at or expect from this team and franchise, a no-show in a division game is not one of them. Count the Titans ALL THE WAY OUT for 2009. They might win 4 games.
Dolphins over Jets, 31-27
My Pick: Dolphins over Jets, 19-17
This was my best pick. I know I was closer on the final score in the Denver game, but giving a 3-1 road team a 3 point spread over a 4-0 home team is like begging for an Upset Special pick. This was a desperately needed win by a still-feisty Miami team, and they earned it. First of all, it was every bit the exciting contest I'd hoped for, and second of all, it makes the AFC East suddenly a whole lot more interesting. As far as I'm concerned, the Dolphins are still in that thing. Chad Henne is playing his ass off, and the Wildcat is still doing the job for the Dolphins. That's all great news for football fans; the 2009 NFL season will be a LOT more entertaining with a competitive Miami team hanging around.
That's all for Week 5. I'll have picks up for Week 6 hopefully before Sunday.
Peace!
And with that rousing introduction, off we go!
Bengals over Ravens, 17-14
My Pick: Ravens over Bengals, 27-17
Okay, officially, the Bengals are real. And I just have to bump the Ravens down the rankings a bit. I still think they're a top 6 or 7 team, but they've lost on consecutive weeks and both their offense and defense have looked less dominant each of the last two weeks.
Panthers over Redskins, 20-17
My Pick: Panthers over Redskins, 20-17
Ding ding ding ding ding!
Nailed it, bitches.
Look, I don't care if they interpreted the rule correctly; the officials hosed the Redskins on Sunday. That rule is absolutely absurd, and the person who wrote it should be dipped into boiling oil until their insides erupt out of their eye-sockets.
The playcalling was much, much better on Sunday (except for that motherfucking stretch run from the two yard line. Every time the Redskins call that in short-yardage situations, I want to tear my angry face off and mail it to Redskins Park), and the defense kept the pressure on for most of the afternoon. Ultimately, it was terrible pass protection, uneven run blocking, and one horrific rule that doomed the Skins. Like I said, they really aren't ready to beat competent teams on the road.
Browns over Bills, 6-3
My Pick: Bills over Browns, with a real NFL football score. See, I thought this was a FOOTBALL game.
Turns out, some guy on the Browns baseball team is in some kind of 2-17 slump. Bummer.
Steelers over Lions, 28-20
My Pick: Steelers over Lions, 31-24
I said they'd cover.
Cowboys over Chiefs, 26-20
My Pick: Cowboys over Chiefs, 20-14
I'm not at all afraid of the Cowboys. The Chiefs had every opportunity to win this game, and in fact should have gotten the victory. For whatever reason, they couldn't tackle Miles Austin for shit. How bad do you think Roy Williams feels right now? Miles Austin was a starter for one week and he caught 10 balls for 250 yards. Roy Williams has 11 catches for 214 yards on the SEASON. What an overrated bum.
Vikins over Rams, 38-10
My Pick: Vikins over Rams, 28-10
You know, the bottom part of the NFL is really, really terrible this season.
Giants over Raiders, 44-7
My Pick: Giants over Raiders, 27-6
Eli Manning played, and played well, but they really didn't need him out there at all. David Carr did fine as a fill-in, and they would have won handily even if he'd started. Hell, they would have won if David Hasselhoff had started. There's only one person on Earth the Giants couldn't have won with, and that person started at quarterback for the Oakland Raiders.
Eagles over Bucs, 33-14
My Pick: Eagles over Bucs, 23-16
Yes, I scoffed at the idea of the Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys being favored by a combined 38.5 points. Turned out the Giants alone won by 37 points, then the Eagles won by 19. Kinda makes it even worse that I'm a Redskins fan.
Falcons over 49ers, 45-10
My Pick: 49ers over Falcons, 17-14
You know, I'm happy with this result. I still think the 49ers are a good team, but I'm happy to know the Falcons are that much better than the 49ers.
Cardinals over Texans, 28-21
My Pick: Cardinals over Texans, 35-31
Meh. These teams bore me to death.
Broncos over Patriots, 20-17
My Pick: Broncos over Patriots, 26-23
Am I the shit or what? I had a good weekend, actually. I nailed the spirit of 8 games in week 5. I picked an exact score, and was within a point of picking the exact spread of 5 different games. This was only my second best pick, actually.
Seahawks over Jaguars, 41-0
My Pick: Jaguars over Seahawks, 27-20
This was my worst, by far. Jacksonville had no business being out there.
Colts over Titans, 31-9
My Pick: Colts over Titans, 24-20
Wow, how about a no-show from Tennessee? Of all the things one might guess at or expect from this team and franchise, a no-show in a division game is not one of them. Count the Titans ALL THE WAY OUT for 2009. They might win 4 games.
Dolphins over Jets, 31-27
My Pick: Dolphins over Jets, 19-17
This was my best pick. I know I was closer on the final score in the Denver game, but giving a 3-1 road team a 3 point spread over a 4-0 home team is like begging for an Upset Special pick. This was a desperately needed win by a still-feisty Miami team, and they earned it. First of all, it was every bit the exciting contest I'd hoped for, and second of all, it makes the AFC East suddenly a whole lot more interesting. As far as I'm concerned, the Dolphins are still in that thing. Chad Henne is playing his ass off, and the Wildcat is still doing the job for the Dolphins. That's all great news for football fans; the 2009 NFL season will be a LOT more entertaining with a competitive Miami team hanging around.
That's all for Week 5. I'll have picks up for Week 6 hopefully before Sunday.
Peace!
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Week 5 Quick Pix
Here we go!
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 8.5
This could be a good game. I find myself hoping Cincinnati is for real these days. Wouldn't that be something? A rejuvenated Bengals team with the same offensive core (more or less), headed by the same bumbling, overmatched head-coach, that's a good story, isn't it?
Ravens win!
Ravens over Bengals, 27-17
Washington @ Carolina
The Line: Carolina by 4
I hate to do it, but I have to. There's no reason to pick the Redskins. Carolina's coming off a bye in a must, must, MUST win situation, against a Redskins team they don't fear at all. I'm not sure Washington is ready to beat any competent team on the road. In fact, I'm sure they're not ready for that.
I hope they play well and score points. If they win, that'll be like a bonus.
Panthers over Redskins, 20-17
Cleveland @ Buffalo
The Line: Buffalo by 6
Buffalo is a lousy team to be getting a 6 point spread over anybody. Still, I guess they'll win. How could anyone pretend to care about this game?
Bills over Browns, 23-13
Pittsburgh @ Detroit
The Line: Pittsburgh by 10.5
I don't know. I mean, I think Pittsburgh will win, but I also kinda think Detroit will cover.
Steelers over Lions, 31-24
Dallas @ Kansas City
The Line: Dallas by 7.5
Dallas, without Roy Williams and Felix Jones, by 7.5 over the dysfunctional Chiefs . . . hmmm . . . tough one. I don't know . . . I guess nothing would surprise me. I'm picking the favorite, but this could be an upset.
Cowboys over Chiefs, 20-14
Minnesota @ St. Louis
The Line: Minnesota by 10.5
Minnesota wins and covers.
Vikings over Rams, 28-10
Oakland @ New York Giants
The Line: New York Giants by 15.5
I'd like to watch this one, to see how cleanly the Giants dispatch the miserable Raiders. I really do enjoy the hell out of watching these Giants, NFC East rivalries be damned.
Giants over Raiders, 27-6
Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia
The Line: Philadelphia by 15.5
Gamblers and book-makers are still loving the NFC East a bit too much. The banged up Giants, banged up Eagles, and banged up road Cowboys by a combined 38.5 points? Yeah, they might do it, but the Eagles and Cowboys are both vastly overrated right now. This game could be a close one. I think the Eagles will win, but I don't think they're all that great.
Eagles over Bucs, 23-16
Atlanta @ San Francisco
The Line: San Francisco by 2.5
Love this game. Love it. Can't wait. And I really can't pick it. If I had a quarter, I'd be flipping it right now.
49ers over Falcons, 17-14
Houston @ Arizona
The Line: Arizona by 5.5
Honestly, I don't care at all about this game. These teams have a lot to prove.
Cardinals over Texans, 35-31
New England @ Denver
The Line: New England by 3
New England by 3? Really? Wow, you almost have to make this an Upset Special.
Upset Special!
Broncos over Patriots, 26-23
Jacksonville @ Seattle
The Line: Seattle by 1.5
Know what? I'm taking the Jags.
Jaguars over Seahawks, 27-20
Indianapolis @ Tennessee
The Line: Indianapolis by 4
It pains me to pick the Titans to go 0-5. As much as I shot down their chances of making the playoffs in 2009, I still do like this team and want them to succeed. 0-5 is such a horrible, brutal thud, especially for a veteran team with such a professional head coach.
Ah well.
Colts over Titans, 24-20
New York Jets @ Miami
The Line: New York Jets by 2
Love this game, too. Hopefully, you're looking at a tight, fiercely competitive Monday nighter in the making here. Again, nothing would surprise me. In fact, I'm taking the home team. Wacky, right?
Dolphins over Jets, 19-17
I'll try to pound out a re-cap next week, or at least an all-in-one.
Go Skynards!
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 8.5
This could be a good game. I find myself hoping Cincinnati is for real these days. Wouldn't that be something? A rejuvenated Bengals team with the same offensive core (more or less), headed by the same bumbling, overmatched head-coach, that's a good story, isn't it?
Ravens win!
Ravens over Bengals, 27-17
Washington @ Carolina
The Line: Carolina by 4
I hate to do it, but I have to. There's no reason to pick the Redskins. Carolina's coming off a bye in a must, must, MUST win situation, against a Redskins team they don't fear at all. I'm not sure Washington is ready to beat any competent team on the road. In fact, I'm sure they're not ready for that.
I hope they play well and score points. If they win, that'll be like a bonus.
Panthers over Redskins, 20-17
Cleveland @ Buffalo
The Line: Buffalo by 6
Buffalo is a lousy team to be getting a 6 point spread over anybody. Still, I guess they'll win. How could anyone pretend to care about this game?
Bills over Browns, 23-13
Pittsburgh @ Detroit
The Line: Pittsburgh by 10.5
I don't know. I mean, I think Pittsburgh will win, but I also kinda think Detroit will cover.
Steelers over Lions, 31-24
Dallas @ Kansas City
The Line: Dallas by 7.5
Dallas, without Roy Williams and Felix Jones, by 7.5 over the dysfunctional Chiefs . . . hmmm . . . tough one. I don't know . . . I guess nothing would surprise me. I'm picking the favorite, but this could be an upset.
Cowboys over Chiefs, 20-14
Minnesota @ St. Louis
The Line: Minnesota by 10.5
Minnesota wins and covers.
Vikings over Rams, 28-10
Oakland @ New York Giants
The Line: New York Giants by 15.5
I'd like to watch this one, to see how cleanly the Giants dispatch the miserable Raiders. I really do enjoy the hell out of watching these Giants, NFC East rivalries be damned.
Giants over Raiders, 27-6
Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia
The Line: Philadelphia by 15.5
Gamblers and book-makers are still loving the NFC East a bit too much. The banged up Giants, banged up Eagles, and banged up road Cowboys by a combined 38.5 points? Yeah, they might do it, but the Eagles and Cowboys are both vastly overrated right now. This game could be a close one. I think the Eagles will win, but I don't think they're all that great.
Eagles over Bucs, 23-16
Atlanta @ San Francisco
The Line: San Francisco by 2.5
Love this game. Love it. Can't wait. And I really can't pick it. If I had a quarter, I'd be flipping it right now.
49ers over Falcons, 17-14
Houston @ Arizona
The Line: Arizona by 5.5
Honestly, I don't care at all about this game. These teams have a lot to prove.
Cardinals over Texans, 35-31
New England @ Denver
The Line: New England by 3
New England by 3? Really? Wow, you almost have to make this an Upset Special.
Upset Special!
Broncos over Patriots, 26-23
Jacksonville @ Seattle
The Line: Seattle by 1.5
Know what? I'm taking the Jags.
Jaguars over Seahawks, 27-20
Indianapolis @ Tennessee
The Line: Indianapolis by 4
It pains me to pick the Titans to go 0-5. As much as I shot down their chances of making the playoffs in 2009, I still do like this team and want them to succeed. 0-5 is such a horrible, brutal thud, especially for a veteran team with such a professional head coach.
Ah well.
Colts over Titans, 24-20
New York Jets @ Miami
The Line: New York Jets by 2
Love this game, too. Hopefully, you're looking at a tight, fiercely competitive Monday nighter in the making here. Again, nothing would surprise me. In fact, I'm taking the home team. Wacky, right?
Dolphins over Jets, 19-17
I'll try to pound out a re-cap next week, or at least an all-in-one.
Go Skynards!
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