The "Show Me" Week Has Arrived!

I really, really like the matchups in Week 9, with virtually every game featuring teams that are at a crossroads in their season. Before we get to the picks, I have a few sports notes to discuss:

1. Sad, awful news out of Washington regarding third year corner Carlos Rogers, who fell to a horrid knee injury in Sunday's massacre in New England. Rogers tore his ACL and MCL and is done for the year. This isn't the sort of injury you see a lot of cornerbacks suffer, simply because it's the kind of thing that generally happens around heavy contact. London Fletcher piled into Rogers knee while they were making a tackle, and you knew instantly that it was going to be bad news. Hopefully he can recover in time to see the field in 2008, but I guess I'd be surprised. Apart from the fact that I'm a Skins fan, I hate seeing season ending injuries, especially to young guys who seem on the cusp of establishing themselves.

2. The Los Angeles Dodgers seem likely to land Joe Torre as their manager. I think that's great. I like Torre, and I couldn't be more happy he's left the Yankees. Now there's virtually nothing left on the Yankees for me to give a shit about, they can all go to hell as far as I'm concerned. I hope Joe kicks ass in LA while the Yankees thrash around like morons.

3. The NBA season opens tonight. Every year this feels more and more like a rude interruption to the NFL season. Look, I'm not granting the NFL any special rights to the fall/winter, post-baseball period, but honestly, only hard-core NBA fans are going to give a shit about what happens in these first . . .oh . . .9-11 weeks of NBA action, when the NFL season is just starting to take shape and the playoff picture is coming into focus. I love basketball and I'm a big NBA fan, but frankly, until the Skins season is done and the NFL is down to the last few games, I couldn't care less what happens on the hardcourt. Wake me up in February.

4. One more critique of the Skins/Pats "game" (or maybe several. Screw you.): I told myself I wouldn't listen to Washington sports radio this week. As my friend Nate pointed out, every week after a Redskins loss, especially a grueling, awful loss like Sunday, all sports radio in Washington is a gloomy, boring, doom-fest filled with angry phone calls and monday morning quarterbacking. I forgot about that this morning on my way to work, and I noticed something different going on: the "they were just a better team" reasoning is in full swing for Redskins fans, and there's nothing I hate more than the "they were just a better team" excuse. Look, yes, it's true, the Patriots are simply a better team, but I hate to see the Skins let off so easy by their fans. The Redskins have an NFL roster full of NFL players, same as the Patriots, and there's just no way you lose by 45 points in the NFL and the only reason is what the other team did on the field. As far as I'm concerned, the final score of that game was 24-0, because it was at the point that both teams went to their locker rooms at halftime at this score that the game was over. Everything else that happened after that didn't effect the final result, just the final score. The Patriots were smarter, more prepared, and in a few cases, physically superior, but if you can't take an NFL roster and at least play a competitive half of football against ANYBODY, ANY NFL TEAM EVER, the final result has a lot more to do with your own failure than the superiority of your opponent. I really hate to see pundits and fans let the Skins off the hook like this. What should we expect if our beloved Skins make it all the way to the Super Bowl, or have we already given up on that idea? Should we expect them to lose by 45 points in a game in which they NEVER competed because we've already decided the Patriots are just the better team? Or maybe we should be looking at the coaching staff and wondering at what point they decided this was the case. Was it halftime, or was it 3 weeks ago? Because the way the Skins playcalling went in this game, there was never any indication they felt they belonged on the field in the first place. The coaches had the white flag up from the opening whistle, and the Patriots did exactly what they get paid to do, what NFL fans DEMAND they do, which is mercilessly pound a team that doesn't belong on the field with them.

Ok, I'm over it. No really. On to the picks!

Denver @ Detroit

In one man's opinion, both teams have a lot to prove in this game. Sadly, that'll likely be that case for the Lions the whole rest of the way, even if and when they secure a playoff berth. The fact that they've won a couple of tough games hasn't kept me from doubting them, and that's probably true of most NFL fans. They've got a winnable home game here against a Denver team that struggles to put points up, and let's not forget that Detroit is one of the NFL's best at forcing turnovers. Cutler has played several sharp games in a row, but like many other rocket-armed young quarterbacks he has a tendency to force passes into tight areas, a habit that might kill the Broncos in this one. Add to that the fact that Detroit has relied more and more on a healthy Kevin Jones to establish the ground game, and Denver is one of the NFL's worst rushing defenses, and this one has Lions victory written all over it. Even though I went a respectable 9-4 last week, I don't quite feel brave enough to go out on a limb with the Broncos.
Lions over Broncos, 24-20 The Broncos have been close in most of their games this season, let's keep that trend alive.

San Francisco @ Atlanta

This is a rare opportunity for the Falcons to get a win, plain and simple. For the 49ers, if they have any chance at all of getting their season back on track, they desperately need to win every one of these types of games. We'll get a chance to see what Bobby Petrino can do in an off week to get his team prepared to play, and we'll see if the Niners can get their offense going against one of the NFL's weaker rush defenses. If they can't, they're done. The Falcons already know they're playing for the future, but they want to get a win when they can, and this definitely looks like one of those games. I also think this is one of the tougher games to call. Joey Harrington has been spotty this season, alternating a few nice games with several truly bad ones, but I kinda sorta believe in him as a quarterback, and I think with two weeks to prepare and no reason to look over his shoulder any longer, he can get the ball going against San Francisco's banged-up and not-that-good-when-healthy defense. I also think the Niners have the best player on the field in Frank Gore, and he's due a breakout performance. I also think Mike Nolan is the better coach, and the Niners are the more desperate bunch. I hate to pick the 49ers on the road. Shit.
49ers over Falcons, 21-16 That might seem like an odd score, but that's four scoring drives for the Falcons and three for the Niners, with the 49ers converting touchdowns on all of their trips to the red-zone because they have the superior running game.

Cincinnati @ Buffalo

This is an opportunity for me to test my loyalty to the Bills. I've like the Bills the whole way, I still like them, I really want them to win this game. They're also at home, have the better record, have more to play for, and are the tougher team. Why will Cincinnati give this game away? Because they know they can beat the Bills, and for a team as soft and erratic as the Bengals, that's a formula for a loss. A lot depends on whether Rudi Johnson is healthy and plays, whether Chris Henry is able to make an impact after missing half the season while serving his suspension, who starts at quarterback for the Bills, and game-time weather. Let's assume Rudi plays at full speed, Chris Henry plays at full speed, and Edwards starts at quarterback for the Bills. I've got to go with the Bengals. But Losman might start, Rudi hasn't been healthy in 4 weeks, and Chris Henry still hasn't been cleared to play, plus he hasn't seen game action all season. Fuck it, GO BILLS!
Bills over Bengals, 17-14 This is me REALLY going out on a limb. The Bengals are so explosive offensively, and the Bills are so NOT explosive, and neither team has much of a defense. Ah jeez.

Carolina @ Tennessee

For the sake of discussion, we're going to pretend there's any reason the Panthers can win this game. They have a couple of nice running backs, one helluva receiver, and at least 45 other guys with honest-to-goodness real beating hearts in their chests. On the other side of the ball, the Titans have a pretty wack, anemic offense, the strongest run defense in the NFL, a knack for creating turnovers, and one of the best head coaches around. In case you were keeping score, the pretending stopped after one sentence.
Titans over Panthers, 20-13

Green Bay @ Kansas City

Green Bay just keeps on rolling along. They really are a professional bunch, and I'm growing increasingly fond of their receiving corps. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are coming off their bye, and if Herm Edwards is who I think he is (they are who we thought they were!), the bye week is a perfect opportunity to get worse as a football team. Arrowhead used to be a super tough place to play, but the Chiefs dropped a disgusting disaster of a game to Jacksonville a few weeks ago at home. Green Bay is a tough defense and Kansas City is an anemic offense. The Chiefs have an equally tough defense, but Green Bay has enough of an offense to win games. Plus, I can't handle the Chiefs playing anything like .500 ball.
Packers over Chiefs, 24-12 I'm now 3-2 in picking home teams so far this week. Not a great sign.

San Diego @ Minnesota

San Diego is on fire at the moment, whereas Minnesota is playing like real crap. I never, EVER thought I'd say this, but Brad Childress needs to get back to an even split in carries with his running backs. Without a doubt, Adrian Peterson was more effective when he and Chester Taylor were giving different looks and paces to the defense. Also, the Vikings need to commit to the run, and that's easier to do when you can divide 40 carries between two stud running backs. Fantasy people might like the idea of Peterson getting 25 carries a game from here on, but the platoon really seemed to be working. This is a big game for the Chargers, who can move two games above .500 and take command of their division with this win. I think they'll get it.
Chargers over Vikins, 27-13

Jacksonville @ New Orleans

Under most circumstances, I'd be taking the Jaguars in this one. They've got the better running game, the better defense, and through the first 6 weeks of the season, at least a push at quarterback. But with Quinn Gray in there, I think I'll go with the Saints. Congratulations to Gray for winning his first start last Sunday, he played well enough to win and the Jags beat a worthy foe. The Saints aren't much better than the Bucs, if at all, but I just can't imagine the Jaguars putting together consecutive wins under Gray. The Saints are playing great football right now, and this tough team is sandwiched between a few pushover opponents on their schedule. This would be a great "pick-up" win for them, and the fact that they get 'em at home gives them a boost.
Saints over Jaguars, 23-14

Washington @ New York Jets

We're going to learn a lot about the Redskins in this one. Perhaps more than any other team in any other game this weekend, the Redskins have a lot to prove. They've looked shaky in all but one win this season, stayed close in two losses, and then had the chicken-shit outing of all time last Sunday against the Patriots. The Jets are a poor, poor team that will likely be starting their backup quarterback, and they have almost nothing to play for this season. Washington, on the other hand, can either get back in the playoff picture with a convincing win, or relegate themselves to the also-ran department with either a baloney victory or, God forbid, a loss. The Jets have no pass rush, so the Skins can try to get a little rhythm going in their passing game. The Jets have very little explosiveness on offense, so the Skins defense should get back to their dominating ways. Will they show the toughness to beat up an inferior team, or will they play down to their competition, take a lead into halftime and spend the second half trying to sneak away with it? I'm hoping for the former, otherwise it'll be another long second half of the season in Washington. The formula should be simple: if the Redskins get three scoring drives in this game and limit turnovers, they should win. Let's hope they don't stop there.
Redskins over Jets, 20-10

Arizona @ Tampa Bay

In my opinion, this is the toughest game to call all week. Tampa Bay really needs a win, but they seem to be nose-diving a bit, especially coming off of a very disappointing loss on Sunday in which they played pretty poorly in all facets of their offense. Arizona had a bye, but who knows what that means in the Wisenhunt era? Wisenhunt has proven himself to be a capable NFL coach through his first seven games as head man, but he's still marching out an injured quarterback, on the road, against a hungry Tampa team that needs a win to hang on to their playoff hopes. I expect Garcia to rebound, I think another week in the system will allow Michael Bennett to boost the running game a little more, and I think the home crowd will give Tampa a push. On the other hand, I think Arizona has the superior offense and a very dangerous defense, and my instincts tell me the bye week will have done them a lot of good. Shit. Shit shit shit.
Bucs over Cardinals, 24-21

Seattle @ Cleveland

Again we have a "strong" team coming off of a bye week, on the road, against an upstart team with a little momentum. Clevland has a lot of talent on offense, enough that they don't even have to play an A game to put up 21 points. Seattle has a nice offense too, they seem to be able to pass the ball up and down the field with ease. Neither team scares anybody too bad on defense. You know what? I like the Cleveland fans, I like their offensive weapons, I like their momentum. I don't like Seattle on the road, I don't like their running back situation, and I don't like their fragile nature. I'm taking the Browns.
Browns over Seahawks, 31-27

New England @ Indianapolis

This should be one hell of a game. The way I look at it, New England's average margin of victory is a bit of a bogus statistic. No team in the last couple decades has run up the score as mercilessly as the Patriots. I don't fault them for it; in fact, I love it. But my point is, I don't think the Patriots are 25 points better than all the teams they've faced this season, I just think they're still out there gunning for the endzone long after most teams would have packed their starters on ice, and a few of their opponents had already conceded defeat. Indianapolis still doesn't scare me with their defense, but I just know they aren't afraid of the Patriots. Dungy sure as hell isn't afraid of the Pats, Manning sure as hell isn't, nor is Harrison, or Reggie Wayne, or Joseph Addai, or Dallas Clark. Bob Sanders sure as hell isn't afraid of a nuclear weapon, let alone a football team. This should be a HELL of a game. I do think the Patriots are the best team in the NFL, but I also think they're more fragile than the Colts. They haven't played in a close game this season, they've never had a reason to doubt or struggle. That said, I'm sticking with the best team. I don't want to be the asshole that picked against the team that's wiping out the NFL in historic fashion.
Patriots over Colts, 37-31

Houston @ Oakland

This is a tough game to call because who the hell knows what's going on with these two teams. Houston is in full-blown tailspin mode, no longer healthy at any offensive position and not able to stop anybody on defense. Oakland is a team without an identity, and that's to be expected when you have a first year coach and an unclear quarterback situation. I'd like to think the home game favors the Raiders, but they took a loss to the Chiefs at home earlier this season. That said, there's very little reason to pick the Texans to win anything. Here it is: if Schaub can stay upright and in the game, the Texans ought to win. He's probably the difference maker in this one. Neither team has much of a receiving corps, and while the Raiders probably have the superior backfield, you wouldn't really know it from watching them the last few weeks. They're turnover prone and suspect on defense.
Texans over Raiders, 23-20 Look who I've taken on the road: San Francisco (ugh), Green Bay in Arrowhead, Norv Turner's Chargers, a Skins team that just lost by more than six touchdowns, a team that's visiting the undefeated reigning Super Bowl champs, and the Houston Texans. My God. Update 11/1: Sage Rosenfels is getting the call for the Texans. Strangely, I'm not changing my pick. It's a pride thing. Either way, don't expect a blow-out.

Dallas @ Philadelphia

Do I dare pick an upset special? Do I? Hmmmmmm. Believe it or not, I'm still suffering from the "can't pick against the Eagles" affliction that has plagued me since Week 1. Dallas is coming off of a bye week and has a very talented team. They can't afford to drop this game a week before their showdown with the Giants, when first place in the NFC East could be on the line. The Eagles are 1-2 at home this season: does that mean they're weak at home, or are they just due? Philly's offense has been moving the ball very well for a couple of weeks in a row, they just can't seem to find the endzone for shit, which is surprising given that Donovan McNabb has a brilliant, BRILLIANT career quarterback rating inside the 20. If L. J. Smith is back healthy, that recent trend could change. Lincoln Financial Field is supposed to be a tough place to play. Man oh man, what to do, what to do. Fuck it. It's the upset special.
Eagles over Cowboys, 34-27

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

There's no reason the Ravens should win this game. How will they move the ball? They have no offense at all, and Pittsburgh has a hell of a defense. Both teams need the win. This could very well be a highly entertaining Monday night game, these AFC North contests are usually tough and close. Pittsburgh has more playmakers on offense, and the defenses are a push. Roethlisberger just needs to avoid turning the ball over. If the Steelers can put two touchdowns on the board early, they should win.
Steelers over Ravens, 17-9 I'm not giving the Ravens any touchdowns. They're so bad in the red-zone.