Week 6 Picks

Minnesota @ Chicago

I guess I'd like to think that Minnesota will come back from their bye week with a nice game plan and a trick or two up their sleeves. I'll feel a lot better about Brad Childress if they do, but the strength of the Vikings is their running game, and the Bears are one tough team to run on. And coming off of a big road win over the Packers, I think the Bears might be ready to make a nice little run. The Vikings are at the bottom of the NFC North, and though I'll be impressed if they pull it off, I just don't see them doing it.

Bears over Vikings, 16-6 I just don't see either team reaching the endzone often, so I'm giving the Bears the touchdown and then dishing out some field goals.

Miami @ Cleveland

I'll be really upset if Miami wins this game with Cleo Lemon at quarterback. Cam Cameron is supposed to be an offensive smart-guy, but they're on the road and Cleveland is a pretty good team. Early indications are that Jamal Lewis will play, and against the awful Dolphins run defense, that ought to be good news for him. He'd probably trot out there with no feet just to get a chance to blow up against this lousy defense. The Browns should be able to move the ball whether they run or pass, and the Dolphins are bound to make some mistakes behind the young guy. At some point, the Dolphins probably looked at this game on their schedule as one they should win. What a depressing team they have down there in Miami.

Browns over Dolphins, 24-13 Notice how I've picked two straight home teams? I'm not out of the dark yet, the balls are still on the shelf.

Washington @ Green Bay

This would be a tough pill to swallow for the Packers, coming off of a disappointing home loss against a division foe, if they lose this one too. The fact of the matter is, the Packers haven't beaten anyone that matters. Their defense is the strength of their team, but frankly, it isn't that great. The Redskins looked terrific on Sunday on both sides of the ball and in all phases of the game. Remember what I said about Favre being sack-shy. He hasn't seen a lot of pressure so far this season, and two time on Sunday against the Bears, when he was feeling heat he made really questionable throws, including one that he put in Brian Urlacher's gut that essentially lost the game for the Packers. The only reason I'm having a hard time with this game is because it's in Lambeau. The winner here is the number two team in the NFC, with both teams set to face the Cowboys later in the season. Fuck it, I'm a homer. I'll probably eat shit on this one.

Redskins over Packers, 27-17 Yuck, I hate that pick.

Cincinnati @ Kansas City

I still think the Chiefs reek. If Larry Johnson is ever going to get it going, this should be the game, and if Cincinnati is going to turn their season around, this should be the game. Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to play, but the Chiefs took it on the chin against Jacksonville on Sunday, almost getting shut-out at home. I have to believe in Marvin Lewis and the Bengals, and I have to pick against Herm Edwards and the Chiefs. Especially since they won't name their starting quarterback until the end of the week. I'm picking another road team, yikes.

Bengals over Chiefs, 30-10 Fuck it, why not make it a blowout?

Tennessee @ Tampa Bay

In my opinion, the Titans took a step backwards on Sunday, getting poor play from Vince Young, not much from their running game, and basically winning the game because the Falcons are a bad team whose coach made a bullshit decision to switch quarterbacks. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, played hurt and took a beating against the Super Bowl champs, and they really need this win in a big way. They're at home, and though I prefer the Titans, I'm taking the Bucs.

Bucs over Titans, 21-20 Two great coaches, two gutsy teams, I think it'll be close.

St. Louis @ Baltimore

I've gotta say, I'm having a hard time picking Baltimore in any game. They looked pathetic in their win against the 49ers on Sunday. On the other hand, the Rams are just awful, and as each week passes, they have less and less to play for. The Ravens still have a tough defense, they still have a stout running game, they still have enough veterans to not let a game like this slip past, and I don't think they will. This would be a great game for the Rams to win, and they did look a lot better against the Cardinals, so I guess I wouldn't be shocked if they pull it off.

Ravens over Rams, 13-10

Houston @ Jacksonville

For the second goddamn week in a row, I'm put in a position where I feel I have to pick the Jaguars. Last week I picked them because they were going against Herm Edwards and the terrible Chiefs, this week I feel like I have to pick them to keep myself from falling back on my bad, bad habit of picking road teams and eating shit. For the record, I think Houston is a very good team, I think Gary Kubiak is a much better coach than Jack Del Rio, and I will be actively and enthusiastically rooting for the Texans to win this game, but I have to pick the Jaguars. I have to.

Jaguars over Texans, 20-17 The Texans are a tough team, they'll keep it close.

Philadelphia @ New York Jets

Again, I think this one comes down to Brian Westbrook. If he plays and is healthy, the Eagles should easily win this game. You can bet Mangina and the Jets are taking a long, hard look at Winston Justice. Remember, the Jets are at the bottom of the NFL in sacks, and the Eagles look like a get-healthy team for what ails your pass-rush. On the other hand, I still believe in Andy Reid, Donovan McNabb, and above all, Brian Westbrook. I also think the Jets are terrible, and I see the Eagles putting a lot of heat on their suspect quarterbacks. That's right, plural. Kelly Clemens is about this close to taking the job away from Chad Pennington.

Eagles over Jets, 31-21

Carolina @ Arizona

I'm glad I get to pick the home team on this one. If Jake Delhomme were playing, I might have a hard time with this one, but David Carr is a joke, and Carolina has no identity. Again, I think this one should be fairly easy for Arizona; protect the ball and score two touchdowns and they ought to come away with a victory. Julius Peppers and Kris Jenkins are pretty scary, though, and you know what happens when you rattle Kurt Warner: suddenly his fingers stop working and the football starts popping out when he gets hit. John Fox is a good coach, but I'm sticking with Arizona on this one.

Cardinals over Panthers, 24-17

Oakland @ San Diego

I have principals, ok? There is NO REASON the Chargers should lose this game, and if they do, they'll have no excuse. I think Lane Kiffin is a better coach than Norv Turner, but that's the only thing going for Oakland in this one. This game is being played in Qualcomm, the Chargers need it more, they have more talent and experience, and they're coming off of a big win against the Broncos. But a few weeks ago, I said I wasn't picking the Chargers again until they are back at .500 or better, and I'm sticking to it. If they win, I'll be happy, but I can't pick them. I CANNOT PICK THEM.

Raiders over Chargers, 28-27

New England @ Dallas

This is the game everyone wants to see this weekend. Why are the two prime-time games between the 0-4 Ain'ts and the 3-2 Sea-jacks, and the 3-2 GAin'ts and the 1-4 Flake-ons, when we have Sunday afternoon games featuring the 3-1 Skins and the 4-1 Packers, and the 5-0 Patriots and the 5-0 Cowboys? If you're going to have flexible scheduling, you might as well use it. I hate to pick another road team here, but I'm glad to pick someone to beat the Cowboys, and I have no trouble picking the Patriots against anyone. As much as I can't stand the Cowboys, I'll be really impressed if they come out and play New England close. I expect Bill Belichick will have his Patriots more ready than ever for this one, and I'm actually really excited to see this game.

Patriots over Cowboys, 34-24

New Orleans @ Seattle

Sooner or later, New Orleans is going to win a game. Not because they're a great or even good team, but because the likelihood that they, or any other team, will go 0-16 is incredibly small, and this team is relatively healthy. They've still got some playmakers, and I still think they've got a good head coach. Seattle, on the other hand, is playing just well enough to not be in the Denver Broncos category of totally bogus teams that people actually expected to do well. Because the Saints haven't won a game yet, and because the Seahawks are at home, I'm forced to take the Seahawks. I'll be pleased, I guess, if the Saints pull it off.

Seahawks over Saints, 31-28

New York Giants @ Atlanta

Make no mistake, I am pretty certain the Giants are the more talented team by a wide, wide margin. I also think they are getting healthy at the same time that they're finding some offensive rhythm and defensive fortitude. This could be a playoff team, though I still insist that Tom Coughlin is an awful coach. Imagine the Giants roster with Jeff Fisher as the head coach, now that'd be a powerful team. On the other hand, Joey Harrington probably has a little fire in his belly right now, and Atlanta is a competitive team. The Giants, for all of their defensive success against the Eagles, are still a weak, or at least inconsistent, defensive team, and the Falcons have shown they can put up big numbers. Petrino ought to have his team playing loose football, but he managed to undermine their meager success by hosing his quarterback. Look, I'm rooting for the Falcons, plus they're at home. I'm fuckin' taking them, ok?

Falcons over Giants, 21-14

One other thing: this morning I got to listen to Phil Simms explain Tony Romo's interceptions away as the brilliance of Jason Garrett and Tony Romo, that they're just going to keep coming and coming and that's what makes them great. I also got to see a nice front page article or three on ESPN.com about Romo, at least one crediting him with winning the Monday nighter. The same Monday night game in which he had 6 turnovers. The Indianapolis Colts throw the ball down the field as much as anyone. The Patriots keep coming and coming. The Bengals won't stop challenging the defense through the air, nor will the Lions or Eagles or Packers, and those quarterbacks aren't tossing five picks and losing a fumble, nor are they killing their team against a bottom-dwelling opponent on Monday night. Romo's picks had nothing to do with the gun-slinging offense, they had to do with bad decision making. He wasn't trying to fit the ball in tight spots, he was making bad choices and inaccurate throws. I'm not shitting on Romo, I think he's a good quarterback, but seriously, the mainstream sports media ought to be ashamed of itself. Do you know what would happen if Donovan McNabb threw five picks and lost a fumble in a game the Eagles barely won against a banged-up, pretty much hopeless bottom-dweller? He'd be getting KILLED on Around The Horn and on NFL Live, and Sal Paolantonio would be calling him washed up and done. This shit is ridiculous. Imagine another young quarterback with as few starts as Tony Romo playing just as poorly. Take, for instance, Vince Young or Jason Campbell, and imagine them throwing five picks and losing a fumble, giving two touchdowns to the other team, on a Monday night before the biggest game of the season to date, and then getting bailed out by a 53 yard field goal as time expired, against the god-awful Buffalo Bills. You can bet they wouldn't be getting front page props on ESPN.com on Wednesday morning, nor would Phil Simms be PRAISING them for their style and crediting them with winning the game.
Ok, that's enough, I'll leave it alone.

One more thing: I wanted to look at the Bills stats and make a case for J. P. Losman taking back the job when he's healthy after the bye. It turns out he's throwing for fewer yards per attempt than even Edwards, and though he had a very good completion percentage through 3 games, Edwards' is higher. Here's the thing; had Losman not been injured, he'd have had another full game under his belt before the Monday nighter, another two weeks of practice and four quarters of live action to get some chemistry going with his receivers. Losman likes to throw the ball down the field, and in my opinion, the Bills were one or two downfield completions away from winning that game, especially considering how weak the Cowboys have been against the pass, and how suspect their secondary is. I like Trent Edwards, and he might be a good quarterback someday, but I like Losman even more, and he's taken enough lumps and performed well enough for this team to get his job back when he's healthy. Perennially bad teams switch quarterbacks often, allow quarterback controversies, and don't have the patience or balls to stick with one guy and ride out some hard times. The Bills have a perfectly good young quarterback with a promising future, and they ought to stick with him. I'm a Losman guy, don't bench him for a rookie, I don't care what Bill Walsh has to say about it.

Next week I'll tell you how I really feel about individual NFL coaches. I may take a thing or two back. We'll see.

Go Skynards.