Big Sunday Coming Up!

Scrolling down the list of matchups for Week 10, I see a number of intriguing matchups and only a couple of real duds. Virtually evry game has some sort of playoff implication, with the exception of the turd between Chicago and Oakland. How the hell did that Niners/Sea-Jacks game get Monday night love? What a turkey that is! Anyway, on to the picks:

Atlanta @ Carolina

This is an ugly matchup and I wouldn't want to watch it even if I lived in one of those towns. Atlanta is coming off an ugly road win over the terrible 49ers, and Carolina is coming off a hideous home loss to the sputtering Titans. Both teams couldn't find their ass if you punched 'em in it, and this one has all the makings of one of the more awful, ugly games all season. Atlanta just refuses to give up on Warrick Dunn, even when all signs point to Jerrius Norwood being the superior runner. The question in Carolina is whether they'll be able to get the ball to Steve Smith and will David Carr avoid giving the game away. Neither team has shit for offense, neither team is especially scary on defense. I'm giving the nod to Carolina because they're at home and they have the superior head coach.
Panthers over Falcons, 19-16

Minnesota @ Green Bay

Adrian Peterson managed 112 yards on 12 carries against the Packers defense last go 'round, and now that he's the feature back, he figures to get at least twice as many carries. There's a very realistic chance that Brad Childress will crap the bed again and the Vikings will end up throwing the ball 35 times, but if he doesn't and they don't, this could be a very interesting game. The Vikings have a pretty bad secondary and haven't had much success defending the pass, and Green Bay has been one of the more explosive passing attacks in the league. Because Green Bay's offense plays to Minny's defensive weakness and because it's in Green Bay after two Packer road wins, I'm taking McCarthy and Favre.
Packers over Vikings, 27-17

Denver @ Kansas City

I have a hard time picking either of these teams. I can't stand the Chiefs, and without Larry Johnson they have almost nothing going for them. The Broncos have been terrible, they just got steam-rolled by the Lions, and now they go to Arrowhead Stadium. They also might be without Jay Cutler and Travis Henry. I keep coming back to the whole Larry Johnson thing, I just can't imagine the Chiefs mustering anything like a competent offense without their star back. I know they're at home, but I'd expect Herm Edwards to need 2 years and a four leaf clover to overcome the loss of his workhorse. Denver stinks: so do the Chiefs. Homefield ought to mean something, but it hasn't so far. Fuck it. Only a dipshit would call this an upset.
Broncos over Chiefs, 13-6

Buffalo @ Miami

I just can't see the Dolphins moving the ball in this game. Buffalo's defense has been tough for the last 4-5 weeks, and the Dolphins don't have their top back, quarterback, or receiver for this game. They already have no defense, and the Bills look like they might have found a little rhythm with the ball. Also, Buffalo is about as tough-minded a team as there is and they've got a chance to move a game above .500 with a win here. Why let the Phins up off the mat?
Bills over Dolphins, 31-20

St. Louis @ New Orleans

This could be a trap game for the Saints. After two impressive wins in a row, they get the horrid, banged up and forgotten Rams. The Rams are coming off a bye week and might be as healthy as they've been all season. They've shown some signs of life on their offense, notably taking a halftime lead before dropping a game to the Browns in week 8. Look, no one is going to pick the Rams in this one, but it just might be a Bill Simmons "Obvious Game". Here's hoping the Saints don't crap the bed.
Saints over Rams, 35-24

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh

If the Steelers are capable of playing like they did on Sunday week in and week out, they might not lose again this season. I really like the Browns, and a win on the road in Pittsburgh to split the series would be a monumental achievement for them, but I just don't see it happening. The Steelers have outscored opponents at home by nearly 100 points this season, and have outscored division foes by nearly 70 points. This is a division home game for them, and that could be a bad sign for the Browns. On the other hand, the Browns have some explosive offensive weapons and a lot of momentum, and I think Romeo Crennell is a hell of a coach. I'm hoping for a close, well-fought match, and I expect the Steelers to pull it out.
Steelers over Browns, 38-31

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

This looks to me like one of the harder games to call this week. Tennessee has the better record and the home-field advantage, but their offense has been putrid crap for a few games in a row now. Jacksonville has been stuck with Quinn Gray at quarterback and just played perhaps their worst defensive game of the year in their loss to New Orleans. Week 9 aside, both teams have strong, sturdy defenses that will stuff the run, which should make this game come down to passing plays and turnovers. Normally I'd expect the Jaguars to come out ahead in that kind of matchup, but Quinn Gray has yet to have one of those "Oh God NOOOO!!" starts, and this is the best defense he's faced so far. Jeff Fisher is the better coach, the game is in Tennessee, I'm taking the team with the better record.
Titans over Jaguars, 14-10

Philadelphia @ Washington

I won't be shocked at all if Philly wins this game. Looking at their records, you'd expect a Washington win. The Skins took them down in Philly earlier in the year, and the Eagles don't seem to have much life right now. Then again, I can't remember the last time the Eagles didn't play the Redskins tough, and the Skins offense looks pretty friggin' dreadful headed into this one. This is such an important home game for the Redskins, if they want to stay in the hunt for the division and not slip in the Wild Card race, they can't afford to let Philly off the mat. The tough thing about picking against the Eagles is that I'm never sure how many scores it will take to get the win. The Eagles are capable of dropping 56 on the Lions, they're also capable of putting 13 on the board against the Packers. Here it is: if the Skins win the turnover battle and score 21 offensive points, they should win the game.
Redskins over Eagles, 28-17 There's a defensive touchdown in there for good measure.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore

This one comes down to Chad Johnson playing. If he plays, Cincinnati wins. Period. With Rudi Johnson healthy and productive, Kenny Watson playing well, Chris Henry back from suspension, T. J. Houshmanzadeh lighting it up, and a healthy Chad Johnson, the Bengals ought to be able to score 17 points, and that should be all it takes to beat the Ravens, who can't score for shit and are collapsing. I do not believe in the Ravens as a contending team at all. I know the Bengals are bad, but I'd take their roster over the Ravens any day of the week. Call it the upset special if you must.
Bengals over Ravens, 28-13

Detroit @ Arizona

I just have a hunch on this one. The Cardinals really need a win, and the Lions aren't a very good road team. The Lions are rolling: if they win, I'll be thrilled. But the NFC West is still in play, its still very much there for the taking, and Arizona still has a lot of offensive weapons. The Cardinals are at home, and I just have a hunch. Fuck it, I'm going with my hunch.
Cardinals over Lions, 23-20

Dallas @ New York Giants

Two things really work for the Giants in this one: home field advantage and the bye week. They've had two weeks to prepare for this Cowboys team, they're at home, and they've already faced them this season. Honestly, the Cowboys have the third most impressive resume in the NFL: they've only lost to the Pats and they have a quality win over the now 6-2 Giants. I still see both teams as fragile, but this is a different Giants team than the one the Cowboys took down on opening week. This should be a very exciting, hotly contested match-up, featuring aggressive defenses and big-play offenses. I think the quarterback that plays better will win the game. I'm taking the home team in a mild upset.
Giants over Cowboys, 27-20

Chicago @ Oakland

I don't know, I just don't care about this game. I'm hoping Lane Kiffin goes to JaMarcus Russell at some point in the contest, otherwise there'll be no reason to watch. Oakland has gotten no home boost this season, and their games are getting blacked out in their market. Chicago's had a bye, I'm takin' 'em.
Bears over Raiders, 20-13

Indianapolis @ San Diego

When the NFL took a look at this matchup in the juicy week 10 Sunday night slot, they envisioned a matchup of two of the AFC's powerhouses duking it out for homefield advantage. That would've been dramatic. Instead, you've got an Indianapolis team that has been quietly killing everyone this season travelling to burned-down San Diego to take on a Chargers team that is just hoping to make the playoffs in the worst division in the NFL. Strangely, this might be even more dramatic. The Chargers desperately need this game. I can't possibly pick Norv Turner over Tony Dungy. I can't possibly pick Philip Rivers over Payton Manning. There's no effing way I'm picking the Chargers in this game. Would I be shocked if they pulled it off? Not really. LT is still probably the best player on the field. But the Colts just narrowly lost to the terrifying Patriots, and they're still 100 times better than San Diego.
Colts over Chargers, 34-21

San Francisco @ Seattle

Here it is, the Monday nighter nobody wants to see. Happy, West Coast? You get your shit-ass teams on the big stage! Seattle ought to win this game; if they don't, the NFL should just contract the whole NFC West. The Seahawks came off their bye and took a loss to the Browns, while the Niners dropped a home game to the god-awful Falcons. Who the fuck cares about this game? This is a nice little condescending pat on the back to the Pacific Northwest, whose teams suck in all major sports. Live it up! If Frank Gore plays, this could be interesting. He probably won't, so it probably won't be.
Seahawks over 49ers, 41-10

Next week we've got Tennessee at Denver in another terrible Monday nighter, followed by Miami at Pittsburgh (that should be a bloodbath), followed by New England at Baltimore (HA!), followed by New Orleans at Atlanta (is there a trend here?), then Chicago at Minnesota, then Denver at San Diego in week 16 to finish the MNF season. In short, there isn't even one Monday night game left on the season featuring two playoff teams. Didn't I hear something about flexible scheduling at some point? What the hell?

One more thing: Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Washington are the teams that passed on Adrian Peterson in the NFL draft. Detroit got Calvin Johnson; hard to argue with a team that's 6-2, and nobody has anything to say about taking Calvin frickin' Johnson. Cleveland would be a hell of a team with Adrian peterson, but they took Joe Thomas with the third pick and he's been a terrific asset for that team, so much so that if Peterson weren't carving up the NFL, Thomas would likely be right up there for rookie of the year. Again, hard to argue with a 5-3 team. Washington took Laron Landry, and he's been a beast. Also, the Skins have Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. Are they as good, combined, as Adrian Peterson? Ummm. . .no. But there isn't room for three in their backfield, Washington's defense has improved dramatically since they took Landry, and they're 5-3. That leaves Oakland and Tampa Bay. You could argue that JaMarcus Russell hasn't paid off for the Raiders, but did anybody think Peterson was worthy of a number one overall pick? Over Calvin Johnson and Russell? And you can hardly fault a team that had Lamont Jordan and had just signed Dominic Rhodes from the Super Bowl champions for not drafting a tailback with injury concerns. That said, they'd be a whole hell of a lot better with Peterson. We'll wait and see how Russell works out for them, but there's no argument to be made that any team would have used the number one overall pick on Adrian Peterson over Russell or Johnson. As for Tampa Bay, the injury to Cadillac Williams makes this interesting, but the Bucs had the rookie of the year in 2005 at tailback. The Gaines Adams pick hasn't really worked out, but drafting Peterson would have essentially cancelled out the high pick the team spent on Williams, who may yet be the guy for them. The Bucs would be a lot better if they had Peterson, but they'd also be a lot better if they had a healthy Williams. My point here is this: it's easy to go back and point fingers at teams for passing on a brilliant player, but the five teams that passed on Peterson had legitimate reasons for doing so, and four of those five teams are now in playoff contention, so the argument can and should be made that those teams made the right choice.

Ok, just one more note: There are currently two teams in the NFL with records better than .500 that have allowed more points than they've scored: the Browns and the Redskins. In fact, in the NFC East the Redskins are the only team with the distinction of having scored fewer points than their opponents. I don't want to say they're pretenders, but they really need to find a way to get their offense going immediately. Of course, a 52-7 bloodbath in New England doesn't help that stat: take out that game, and the Skins have a 145-108 advantage. Still, I don't like the looks of that one bit . . .

Go Skynards.