Green Bay over Detroit, 37-26
My Pick: Green Bay over Detroit, 27-21
The game was not nearly as close as the final score. Great win for the Packers, who carry a ton of momentum into Dallas for their week 13 slugfest. Detroit is in dire straights right now, they've got big trouble on their offensive line, in their running game, and in the first half.
Dallas over New York Jets, 34-3
My Pick: Dallas over New York Jets, 28-13
Another Thanksgiving blowout. It really was a bad day for football, unfortunately, without one single close or entertaining game.
Indianapolis over Atlanta, 31-13
My Pick: Indianapolis over Atlanta, 24-3
I knew Indy would take care of business, but I didn't think it would take them so long to get going. They need to get healthy, they've got some tough games left.
New Orleans over Carolina, 31-6
My Pick: New Orleans over Carolina, 23-20
Neither team is realistically in the playoff picture anymore, and Carolina is still winless at home. Reggie Bush looks dinged up to me, and I have a hard time picturing Drew Brees having this much success next week against the Bucs.
Cincinnati over Tennessee, 35-6
My Pick: Tennessee over Cincinnati, 31-24
This was a biltz-style mugging in a dark alley. Tennessee never knew what hit 'em, they were totally unprepared for it, and they never recovered. They're in bad, bad shape in the AFC playoff chase now, with Cleveland and Jacksonville each substantially ahead of them in the running.
Cleveland over Houston, 27-17
My Pick: Cleveland over Houston, 28-24
Man, the Browns are ROLLING right now. I'm not sure I'd pick against them at home against anybody except New England or Indianapolis. They looked great on Sunday.
Jacksonville over Buffalo, 36-14
My Pick: Jacksonville over Buffalo, 21-17
Man, Jacksonville is just so good when David Garrard plays. In another season, he'd be a top 3 MVP candidate. This season, there are no second or third place MVP candidates. Still, I wouldn't want to be the team that draws Jacksonville in the playoffs, and it'll probably be San Diego, the most fragile team in the playoff hunt.
Oakland over Kansas City, 20-17
My Pick: Kansas City over Oakland, 13-7
Gross. Who cares?
Minnesota over New York Giants, 41-17
My Pick: New York Giants over Minnesota, 21-20
Wow. It turns out, nothing is quite as dependable as the annual winter collapse of the Coughlin Giants. I'm not shitting on Coughlin, I think he's done a bang-up job this season, but this seems to be the Achilles heal of his New York team, and if they continue to slide, he'll be gone next year. As for Eli Manning . . . yipe. Bad, bad game. I still like this guy and root for him, but he's not doing much to convince anyone he can be a franchise quarterback.
Also, here's what I wrote about this game: ". . . let me say this: Minnesota has a real chance of beating the crap out of the Giants. Why? Because they don't need to pass the ball to win, and that neutralizes the scary Giants pass rush. The Vikings have the best offensive line in the NFC, and Chester Taylor is way more than enough to make it count. For the Giants to win, they need Eli to protect the ball and make plays, and they need to stop the run. They won't have much success on the ground against the Vikings, but if they can pass the ball and limit Taylor, they should win. I don't know ."
Seattle over St. Louis, 24-19
My Pick: Seattle over St. Louis, 31-21
There's no reason St. Louis shouldn't have won this game. Their goal-line playcalling at the end was inexcusable, an utter bed-crapping by the coaches. How often does a team take two time-outs to the goal-line on a potential game-winning drive? To screw that up by not calling a running play for your Pro-Bowl tailback until third down when you're playing Gus friggin' Frerotte is absolutely astounding. St. Louis deserved to win right up until Scott Linehan crawled half-way up his own ass with the game on the line. After that, they deserved to lose. Seattle is dinged up and grumpy, they may collapse.
Tampa Bay over Washington, 19-13
My Pick: Washington over Tampa Bay, 24-14
You know, sometimes players fail to execute on only a few plays and that's all it takes to lose a game. What can you say about this game? First quarter fumbles killed the Skins, who soundly outplayed the Bucs on both sides of the ball. It happens. I'm encouraged by the progress of their offense, but I have a suspicion that the Skins might need to take a look at a late round future tailback with some explosiveness. Portis ain't got it no mo'.
San Francisco over Arizona, 37-31
My Pick: Arizona over San Francisco, 28-9
If you picked this game right, bravo. You're the only one. I can't remember the last time a new assistant made such a huge, immediate impact on a team's success. Ted Tollner came in to help Jim Hostler with the offense, and look what happened! Gore went nuts and the 49ers took down a division foe. As for the Cardinals, what a terrible, terrible loss. They'll say they weren't looking past the Niners, but I don't buy it. Now they need to find a way to slow down the Browns, a true offensive powerhouse.
Chicago over Denver, 37-34
My Pick: Denver over Chicago, 20-17
Devin Hester kept Chicago in it, and against all odds, Rex Grossman ripped Denver's heart out and won it for the Bears, who are still fighting their asses off. Here's what I wrote: "Trap game for Denver, coming off a big win on Monday night to put them in a tie atop the AFC West. Chicago is tough as nails."
San Diego over Baltimore, 32-14
My Pick: San Diego over Baltimore, 31-10
Yep. Nailed it.
New England over Philadelphia, 31-28
My Pick: New England over Philadelphia, by a lot more than 3.
What a great, great game. I have an easier time appreciating the Pats when they look human and take a knee at the end. Their defense was exposed a little, but they found a way. Great effort from the sometimes-game Eagles, who managed to unearth a little more controversy by playing well. What a depressing mess that team is.
Pittsburgh over New York Jets, 3-0
My Pick: Pittsburgh over New York Jets, 35-13
Rain and a god-awful field killed this game. Everyone and their mother is bitching about it, but I found it to be highly watchable and enjoyable. I love the slop, I love watching games in bad weather, I loved it. I'm glad Pittsburgh won. They do need to figure out the whole surface issue at Heinz, but I applaud their efforts to stick with grass. Maybe they want to reconsider having four high-school football games and a college game on the field in bad weather the week of a Monday nighter.
Week 13 Picks:
Green Bay @ Dallas
Call me crazy, but Green Bay is the better team, they've got more momentum, and they've already played and won in some of the NFL's toughest stadiums. Also, I prefer Green Bay.
Packers over Cowboys, 27-24
San Francisco @ Carolina
Was San Francisco's offensive explosion the start of something, or was it a flash in the pan? I can't pick them on the road, not even against winless-at-home-and-flat-out-terrible Carolina. This is a terrible, terrible game.
Carolina over San Francisco, 16-14
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
Really tough game to call, this should be a humdinger to watch. I can't pick against the ultra-pro Colts, but I like Jacksonville better each time I see 'em. I think they're the one AFC team other than Indy I might give a chance in a playoff contest with the Pats.
Colts over Jaguars, 21-17
Detroit @ Minnesota
There are two playoff caliber NFC teams that I think will come out of week 12 in full tailspin, and Detroit is one of them. Is this an upset? Hard to say, but Minnesota has a winning formula at the moment.
Vikings over Lions, 28-24
San Diego @ Kansas City
I'm just not going to pick the Chiefs, not after they lost at home to Oakland. San Diego is at least 10 times better than Oakland. Did you catch that Norv Turner line about sometimes struggling to run the ball (with the NFL's best player) because they've played some tough teams? Holy shit, that is absolutely VINTAGE Norv. That pretty much sums up his entire time in Washington: Hey Norv, why'd you lose 11 games this year? "Well Obliterat, we played some pretty tough teams." Wow.
Chargers over Chiefs, 28-17
New York Jets @ Miami
Call this one the Toilet Bowl. Nobody cares. Gamblers, MAYBE.
Jets over Dolphins, 17-10
Buffalo @ Washington
Yeah, like I'm gonna start picking against 'em NOW. They can move the ball. Their defense has been good/great at times. If they can finish their drives and consistently get stops, their one of the NFC's best teams. Buffalo is in disarray and is starting Trent "The Hot Young Nanny" Edwards, plus Marshawn Lynch is a no-go.
Redskins over Bills, 31-21
Houston @ Tennessee
I have very little faith in the Titans after that awful bludgeoning they took in Cincinnati. I do have faith in Jeff Fisher (a great coach), and they're at home with pride at stake and potentially last place in the AFC South on the line. I'm sticking with the team with the better record, plus they're at home.
Titans over Texans, 24-17
Atlanta @ St. Louis
Yuk. Boooooooooo! Why not go with home-field advantage?
Rams over Falcons, 28-20
Seattle @ Philadelphia
A very game Eagles bunch takes on a banged up, grumpy, fragile Seattle team that perhaps sees the division crown looming too soon for their own good. Philly fans will undermine their team for the umpteenth time this season, but I'm taking the upset. Lofa Tatupu is the only guy on the Seahawks with any hope of sticking with Brian Westbrook, but he's hurt.
Eagles over Seahawks, 21-17
Cleveland @ Arizona
Stick with the horse what-what brung ya. I don't know why Cleveland is that horse, but for some reason, I feel like picking against them in a match with the Cardinals team that just lost to San Francisco at home would be disloyal. Wierd, I've only ever seen Cleveland from the highway.
Browns over Cardinals, 35-28
Denver @ Oakland
Oakland stinks. Denver at least has a playmaker or two on their roster. This should be a pretty miserable affair, with Denver clinging to a wild hope of making the playoffs.
Broncos over Raiders, 24-20
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
The last gasp for the Saints. If Jeff Garcia starts, I think Tampa wins. That's a big question mark right now. Tampa Bay needs to make a few big plays through the air, run the ball well, and use their Tampa-2 to force Drew Brees to dink and dunk his way up the field. This is a coin-flip, but I'm taking the road warriors. The Saints are not a good team when they're forced to play from behind.
Bucs over Saints, 24-20
New York Giants @ Chicago
The Giants are the other NFC playoff contender that I expect to come out of week 13 reeling. They'll lose to the tougher 'n hell Bears and the wheels will come all the way off. Right now, there isn't a player on New York's roster that isn't thinking about last season's collapse and second guessing their head coach and quarterback.
Bears over Giants, 31-20
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
The Steelers really need this game. I know that sounds a bit strange, but they really need it. They're confidence is low, I can feel it. Cincinnati will come out gunning, but I expect the superior toughness of the Steelers and the rowdy home crowd to pull them through.
Steelers over Bengals, 38-27
New England @ Baltimore
This game is eerily like the Pats/Eagles game on paper. Think about it: long-tenured, time-tested, embattled coach; tough, prideful, historically successful but declining defense with at least one future HOFer; underachieving offense with stud-ish tailback; underwhelming backup QB under center; anonymous receiving corps; talented but underachieving offensive line; playoff hopes just about shot (or in this case, all the way shot). The differences: Andy Reid is the superior coach, Baltimore has home-field, Baltimore has the superior defense, and Philly did enough in their strong effort against the Pats that Baltimore can at least try to copy the model. I don't know, this could be interesting. Nevertheless, Pats win.
Patriots over Ravens, a lot to a little
There you have it. I upgraded my fantasy team at the receiver position by replacing D. J. Hackett with Kellen Winslow. Consider this my final push for respectability. I finished 10-6 in week 12 picks, but I took seven road teams this week, so my streak of solid picking may come to a brutal close.
Go Skynards!
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