Three Weeks Left!

In these last four or five weeks, the picks start to get easier and easier. Not only do we have a better sense of who these teams are by the final third of the season, but we know what they're playing for, and that makes a big difference. I'll still gloat when I go 13-3, as I did last week, but frankly, just about anybody should be able to get the vast majority of these games right. Still, I have fun doing it and it helps me think and get excited about the upcoming slate of games.

And here we go:

Denver @ Houston

I might be in the very small minority of people that are actually excited to watch this game. I've been down on Denver all year, and I still think they're rubbish, but they've got a few things to be excited about down the road: Jay Cutler is rounding into a solid pro, Brandon Marshall is emerging as a true beast at wideout, Selvin Young is yet another Broncos tailback, and though the defense stinks, it has some exciting young players like D. J. Williams to watch. On the other side of the ball, Houston is a competitive team with some young pieces, too, and as soon as they go out and get themselves a tailback and shore up that defense, they could be a contender. I also think this is one of the more even matchups, so I'll give the nod to the home team. Normally, that'd mean giving the Texans a 3 point victory, but the Broncos play poorly from behind and are a bad road team, so I'm upping it a bit.
Texans over Broncos, 28-21

Cincinnati @ San Francisco

This, on the other hand, is a real stinker. Maybe I'm kinda rooting for the Bengals to finish with a little momentum, as a consolation for playing a brutal first half schedule. Still, I can't imagine watching this game.
Bengals over 49ers, 38-16

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh

Holy hell, this might be my favorite matchup of the entire NFL schedule this season. Wow, I would LOVE to watch this game. Call me crazy, call me completely nuts, but I'm taking the Jaguars. Why? Because they're tougher, less turnover-prone, and (UNBELIEVABLY!) more consistent. Pittsburgh has been a bear at home this season, but they just took it on the chin in New England and this is a hell of a way to follow up, with probably the second hottest team in the AFC. This could very well be a preview of round 1 of the playoffs, if Pittsburgh wins this one.
Jaguars over Steelers, 20-17

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

The Bucs should win this one, I don't care if Gruden himself starts at quarterback. Chris Redman looked pretty good for the Falcons on Monday night, he made some really good throws down the sidelines and in general looked like a guy who really understood the offense. The Bucs really need to win this one and take the NFC South. They've got as much healing to do as any team in football and I insist they don't want to take this thing all the way down to the wire . . . you know, the more I think about this game, the more I think the Falcons could very easily sneak up and win it. The solution: stop thinking about it.
Bucs over Falcons, 21-10

Seattle @ Carolina

I never feel good picking the Seahawks, especially on the road, but on the other hand, if I didn't just look at an NFL schedule, I'd have forgotten that the Panthers even existed. I'm not going to be the nucklehead that picks the dreadful Panthers to upset the "surging" Seahawks and then has to deal with the guilt of having actually picked Carolina in a game they lost by three scores. No way.
Seahawks over Panthers, 31-13

Green Bay @ St. Louis

For some reason, I feel like Green Bay has played like 10 road games and 3 home games this year. Maybe that's because they have done some pretty impressive things on the road, like winning in Arrowhead and at Mile High on consecutive Sundays, and then getting hammered at Dallas on another big road test. Brock Berlin isn't the kind of guy you pick to beat the 11-2 Packers, certainly not when Green Bay excels at stuffing the run and Stephen Jackson hasn't exactly been blowing anybody's hair back. The Packers'll no doubt stuff eight or nine guys in the box and have a chuckle as Berlin is forced to try to beat them with his arm.
Packers over Rams, 30-10

Baltimore @ Miami

I want so badly to pick the Dolphins in this game. Forget their schedule up to this point, this is the best chance they've had all year to win a game. The Ravens are SUCH pretenders, SUCH phony, lousy pieces of washed up crap, and are so ready to punch the clock on this season and settle into their comfy chairs to watch the playoffs. The Dolphins, on the other hand, need a win so badly before their upcoming bloodbath against the Pats. Dammit. I have a strong, strong feeling that the Ravens will lose this game. I just can't pick the 0-13 team. Sorry. I hope I'm wrong.
Ravens over Dolphins, 14-13

New York Jets @ New England

This is how you know the NFL and the sports media is screwy and demented: with big games between the Jaguars and Steelers, the Skins and Giants, the Saints and Cardinals, the Eagles and Dallas, the Lions and Chargers, the Bills and Browns, and an interesting Monday night rematch between the Bears and Vikings, this is the game that will get the most hype. Why? Because everyone is expecting the Patriots to go out and put an epic, record humiliation on the hapless Jets, who had the audacity to notice that the Pats were cheating in week 1 and not let them get away with it. Out of protest, not only am I not watching this game, I refuse to even acknowledge it on Sunday.
Pats over Jets by many touchdowns.

Arizona @ New Orleans

Both teams need it badly, but New Orleans is the only team that can do anything with the win. The Cardinals are still technically alive, but if the Vikings and Redskins manage to win on Sunday, that pretty much will wrap it up for the Cards, who can't get nine wins and lost to the Skins. The Skins are atop the Out-of-the-Playoffs Bunch, with tie-breakers over Detroit and Arizona, and the Vikings are the sixth seed. Still, both these teams will consider this a playoff game, with the Saints given a chance to get back to .500 and stay in the hunt. I liked what I saw from New Orleans on Monday night, and since they're at home and not starting Kurt "Throw it to Whoever" Warner, I'll take 'em.
Saints over Cardinals, 24-17

Buffalo @ Cleveland

Great game! Two teams nobody has any business disliking fighting for the final wild-card spot in the AFC. I've gotta stick with the Browns, who've got momentum and the home-field. This game is number two on my list of games I'd love to watch on Sunday.
Browns over Bills, 30-21

Tennessee @ Kansas City

What an awful, gut-punch of a loss the Titans suffered on Sunday in a game that effectively knocked them out of the playoffs. They need a lot of help between now and the end if they hope to get in, and that starts with them winning out. Arrowhead is not a fun place to play, but the Chiefs are a dreadful, awful team with nothing to play for and not one difference maker on their whole offense. Tennessee should have no problem keeping them out of the endzone, and if their offense can move the ball and keep the Chiefs backed up, they could very well get a shut-out. In fact, I'm predicting a shut-out. There have only been four all year: the Seahawks were blanked at Pittsburgh; the Seahawks then shut out the Niners; the Packers blanked the Vikings, and then the Mud Bowl, where Miami failed to score at Pittsburgh. The Chiefs deserve to be held scoreless at least once this year, why not an embarrassing home job by the Titans?
Titans over Chiefs, 14-0

Indianapolis @ Oakland

Can't see the Raiders winning this one.
Colts over Raiders, 28-13

Detroit @ San Diego

The Lions showed on Sunday that they can still play with some good football teams. The Cowboys are obviously a lot better than the Chargers, but the Lions got 'em at home, whereas they now have to take their ruined season on the road to the Chargers, who have what can be called momentum and are on the verge of clinching a winning season. I'm taking the Chargers, but you never know . . .
Chargers over Lions, 21-20

Philadelphia @ Dallas

Hasn't this game already happened a few times? Philly couldn't do the job at home, I'm not picking them on the road. I'll be rootin' for 'em, though.
Cowboys over Eagles, 20-16

Washington @ New York Giants

The Giants are looking shakier than hell right now, but the collapse hasn't happened. Maybe it won't happen, who can say? Joe Gibbs is something like 6-10 lifetime at New York, including 0-3 in his current stretch at the helm of the Skins, so that's no good. This game could go a few different ways. Among them: this could be a get-healthy home game for the Giants, where they re-emerge as a contender and win going away; the collapse could happen right on schedule, as the fragile chemistry of the Giants finally implodes and they give away a bad home loss; the Redskins could (possibly) come out and play a sharp game on both sides of the ball and actually earn a victory; the Redskins could come out and play a good half of football, then spend the second half turning the ball over and having their defense exposed. The two likeliest scenarios, in my opinion, are the Giants collapse and the Redskins second half collapse. Because one hasn't happened yet and the other has happened over and over and over again, I'm forced (FORCED!) to take the Giants. Just know that it wasn't easy.
Giants over Redskins, 24-16

Chicago @ Minnesota

The Vikings are hot, moving the ball on the ground and through the air, whereas the Bears are starting Kyle Orton. I shit you not.
Vikings over Bears, 23-9

The fantasy league has turned into an utter joke at this point, and not only because I can't seem to get out of fourth place. Still, because there's no obvious way of just removing my team altogether, I'm going to play it out and hope for a massive upset along the way. Frankly, and hopefully without sounding like too much of a loser, the approach of some of my league-mates has made me reconsider whether I respect these people at all. Ok, nevermind, I am a loser.