Absurd Statistics and Other Nonsense!

Super Bowl stuff first:

The Patriots have had 107 drives start inside their own 30 yard line and 77 drives start beyond their own 30 yard line. Of the drives from inside the 30 yard line:

• 40 drives from inside the 30 ended in touchdowns
• 35 drives from inside the 30 ended in punts (1 blocked)
  
• 7 drives from inside the 30 ended in interceptions
• 16 drives from inside the 30 ended in field goals (3 missed)
• 2 drives from inside the 30 ended in lost fumbles
• 7 drives from inside the 30 ended with either half-time or the end of the game
• 0 drives from inside the 30 ended on downs

Of the 77 drives that started beyond the 30 yard line:

• 22 drives from beyond the 30 started in their opponent's territory
• 33 drives from beyond the 30 ended in touchdowns
• 15 drives from beyond the 30 ended in punts
• 6 drives from beyond the 30 ended in interceptions
• 9 drives from beyond the 30 ended in field goals (1 missed)
• 2 drives from beyond the 30 ended in lost fumbles
• 7 drives from beyond the 30 ended in either half-time or the end of the game
• 5 drives from beyond the 30 ended on downs

Ok, so, these are meaningless statistics. As with most teams, the Patriots are more likely to score touchdowns on drives that start closer to midfield than they are on drives that start backed up in their own territory. Brady is slightly more likely to throw a pick on drives that start in good field position, and the Pats are slightly more likely to lose a fumble. They're far more likely to try and fail on fourth down when they start in good field position, which is interesting. Beyond that, there's not much there. They've scored points on 53% of all drives that started past the 30, 50% of drives that started inside the 30. Nothing there.

In their last three games, they've had a bit more difficulty, and I think a lot of it has to do with a) the quality of the opposing defenses, b) the weather turning cold and windy, c) New England's players wearing down as the season goes on, and d) opposing coaches figuring out ways to slow down New England's passing attack. The Patriots have only scored 4 touchdowns on 16 possessions that started inside their 30 against the Giants, Jaguars, and Chargers. Against the Giants, they scored a single touchdown on the 6 drives that began with them backed up. They pulled three touchdowns on possessions that started closer to midfield, including two that started at midfield. This time of year, more than ever, a team cannot afford to turn the ball over, especially in their own half of the field. The Patriots spent the early part of the year mowing teams down from all angles, but of late they've struggled to move the ball when forced to start deep. Against the Chargers, the Pats went field goal, punt, punt, interception, punt, end of game on drives that started inside their 30; they scored three touchdowns on their remaining drives.

Everyone and their mother has said the Giants need to run the ball successfully to have a chance against the Patriots. Presumably, the Patriots will make shutting down the ground game their number one priority. Won't this be interesting? How successful will the Pats be at bottling up Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw? Won't this be the key battle of this match-up? If I'm the Giants, I want the ball first, and I want a decent return. Then I'm climbing on Brandon Jacobs back and riding him full steam into the mouth of the Pats defense. I think I'd even be happy with a three and out, if it gets me 9 yards, puts my offense near the 45 yard line, and ends with me punting the Patriots to the 20 yard line or so. I have a hunch the Patriots will have a difficult time sustaining long drives against the Giants defense, based in part on their inability to do so in their last meeting and in part on their failure to do so against the Chargers. If I'm Tom Coughlin, I might even go nuts and sell out defensively against shutting down everything the Patriots do within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage! Will Tom Brady have time to get the ball deep down the field? How does he feel stepping up into the pocket on his ankle? Furthermore, how will Brady and the offense respond to seeing a defense that stacks the box and dares them to win over the top for the first time all season?

Suddenly, I'm having an epiphany! This is and has been the key to beating the Patriots all along. We've all been hinting at it all season, suggesting that opposing defenses need to play tight and aggressive with the Patriots receivers at the line. The problem there is that too often this has been accompanied by safeties deep and over the top and linebackers retreating from the line of scrimmage as soon as the ball is snapped, leaving the short stuff wide open for guys like Wes Welker, Jabar Gaffney, and Kevin Faulk, guys who do their best work underneath. Eliminate them! The Patriots have one deep threat, as I see it, and you make life hard for Tom Brady and Randy Moss if force them to link up repeatedly. Why? Because, as we all know, Randy Moss has had issues with controlling his frustrations in the past. Moss doesn't get frustrated by tough man coverage or a tight, balled-up zone around him as the opposition over-schemes to stop him: he gets frustrated when he feels he's wide open and the quarterback can't get him the ball. What if the Giants bring the house, leave Moss in press-man with a safety over the top, and get in Tom Brady's face up the middle so he has trouble stepping up on deep throws? The Giants used that kind of pressure against the Eagles to eliminate the screen pass and dump-off to Brian Westbrook, and it worked to perfection: Donovan McNabb (also slightly gimpy) couldn't work underneath, couldn't use the screen or the dump-curl, and couldn't step up in the pocket to get the ball down-field. Instead, he was forced to leave the pocket, and that's when New York's DEs went nuts. There it is! The blueprint! And if Moss gets frustrated, suddenly his blocking goes all to hell, his routes disintegrate, his body language declines, and he starts turning intermediate patterns into a stroll through the park.

Well, here's hoping, anyway. I expect the Patriots to win by some huge margin, but I will be PRAYING for the Giants to pull off the upset.