Conference Championships

Let's be honest: a Super Bowl that does not include both the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots will be a big-time disappointment for the NFL, the casual fan, and the sports media at large. That's not to say that a big-market, marquee rematch between Northeast powers New York and New England wouldn't carry its own intrigue, its own set of subplots and distractions; of course it would. But we've yet to watch the conference championship games, and ESPN.com has not one but two articles espousing the quality of a Brett Favre/Tom Brady, Good/Evil, small market/big market, past/future contest to end the year. God help everyone if the San Diego Chargers upset the New England Patriots in the AFC title game: the sports media will be so caught up reflecting on the magnitude of the result, they may miss the Super Bowl altogether.

Luckily for them, both the Packers and Patriots are very likely to advance to the big one. Here's how I see it:

New York Giants @ Green Bay
The Giants bring the NFL's seventh-ranked defense (regular season) to Green Bay to face the league's second-ranked offense. On paper, it looks like a strength vs. strength match-up, but that doesn't tell the whole story: when the Packers traveled to New York in week 2, they dropped five touchdowns on the Giants defense and humiliated them at home. Many will suggest this is a different Giants team with a stronger defense than the one that dropped their opening two games, but again, I don't buy it. The Giants gave up an average of 11 points per game to the Atlanta Falcons, the San Francisco 49ers, the Miami Dolphins, the Detroit Lions, the Chicago Bears, and the Philadelphia Eagles (twice). That's a who's who of NFL division door-mats, and of New York's league-leading 53 regular-season sacks, a whopping 37 came in those games! In their other games, including two playoff contests, they allowed almost 28 points per game, and managed only a sack and a half a game. To put it another way: against competent NFL teams, the Giants have a very average defense. Average, at best.

Good NFL teams beat up lousy NFL teams, yes, but before we get carried away crowning New York's celebrated pass rush and tough resurgent defense, how about we at least acknowledge that the bulk of their good work came against teams that finished a combined 32-64?

Opposite the Giants, the Green Bay Packers seem to be hitting their stride offensively, and that's saying something for a team that put up over 370 yards per game in the regular season, second only to the historic Patriots. Ryan Grant has taken a big step forward and is providing the Packers with a running game they sorely lacked for long stretches of the regular season. In the cold at Lambeau, it will be essential for both teams to establish the ground game, and though the Giants have had more consistent success on the ground, the Packers have the kind of efficient passing attack that could force the opposing defense to play honest and stick with seven men inside the box. One would imagine, on the other hand, that Green Bay will take the approach of forcing Eli Manning to move the ball through the air, testing the Packers' talented secondary, and though he's been better of late, New York's offense is considerably stronger when Brandon Jacobs is punishing the defense and putting up big numbers.

The cold shouldn't favor either team, as both teams play winter home games in frigid, outdoor stadiums. Green Bay has historically been a very difficult place to play for road-teams, and with that in mind, the Packers seem to have a firm edge. They're healthy at most key positions and have been clicking and improving throughout the season. The Giants are still adjusting to an offense missing Jeremy Shockey, one of Manning's favorite targets, and have sustained a number of big injuries on their defense.

The NFL should get their wish in this one. If Green Bay gets ahead early, it could be ugly. New York doesn't play especially well from behind. While many teams start to play offense a bit closer to the vest this time of year, not wanting to make a critical mistake, Mike McCarthy doesn't strike me as the kind of guy that scales back his playbook, especially not with a veteran quarterback like Favre running the show. But because it is the post-season, I'd expect them to limit the risks, especially with a lead, so the score might be a lot closer than the actual level of competition . . .
Packers over Giants, 23-14

San Diego @ New England

Everything depends on the health of the skill guys on San Diego: as admirably as Billy Volek and Michael Turner played in Indianapolis, Bill Belichick will have had an entire week to put together a game-plan to attack these guys, and we've seen what he can do to frustrate even Pro-Bowl level players. The Chargers were no match for the Patriots even at full strength in the second week of the regular season; if they're to have any chance at all on Sunday, they'll need their elite players playing at an elite level. Will that get them a win? The odds are pretty long, but if nothing else, it could spare the viewing audience a bloodbath. We've already endured more than our fair share.

Igor Olshansky of the Chargers made perhaps the most puzzling statement of the season thus far, suggesting that the Patriots have more to be worried about than the Chargers. Interesting, given that the Patriots absolutely thumped the Bolts in week 2. Incidentally, when was the last time both championship games featured rematches from the same week of the regular season? No, really, do you know?

At any rate, maybe Olshansky knows something the rest of us don't. Just based on surface observations alone, the Patriots are pretty clearly the best team in the NFL, but you have to consider that they just might be playing their worst football of the entire season. Think about it: the Patriots won their first 10 games by an average of 25.4 points; a hell of a margin. In their last 7 games, including the divisional contest against the Jaguars, that margin is down to 10.2. Yes, they're still winning by double digits, but if you're going to find silver lining in a match-up against the first team to complete a 16-0 regular season in NFL history, you'll take what you can get. The Chargers, on the other hand, have won eight straight games; their final six regular season contests by an average of 18 points per game, and two playoff games by just over a touchdown, holding opponents to a measly 13.1 points per game over that stretch. Who knows? Maybe Olshansky knows something. Yeah, right.

Simply put, if Billy Volek and Michael Turner have to play significant time in this game, it won't be close. If Ladainian Tomlinson can go, who knows? LT is a lot like Brian Westbrook, a guy I'm a lot more familiar with because he plays in the NFC East, in that he can go completely nuts and win a game on his own. Offensively, that's what the Chargers are hoping for, that's what they need. If LT goes off, Philip Rivers protects the ball, and Antonio Gates finds room against a pretty slow and underwhelming New England linebacker corps, the Chargers could easily hang 30 points on the Pats. Bill Belichick's entire defensive philosophy is based on eliminating an opponent's greatest strength, and in this case it will be LT. In their first meeting, LT was held to 58 total yards of offense, and the Chargers struggled mightily to move the ball consistently. In New England's match-up against the aforementioned Brian Westbrook, let's assume eliminating his production was their primary defensive goal: Westbrook went for 92 total yards on 24 touches and a score; decent production, but if that's all the Chargers get from LT this weekend, their season will very likely end shy of a trip to the Super Bowl.

Every strategy seems to have already been suggested for slowing the incredible Patriots offense, and many have been implemented, with varying degrees of failure. It seems NFL observers suggest, week after week, that slowing Tom Brady's prolific passing attack is as simple as jamming his receivers at the line and disrupting their timing, and yet, week after week, defenses reject that philosophy and, week after week, are methodically destroyed by New England's pass-heavy attack. Here we are, 17 games into the manifest failure of NFL defenses to adapt or have any meaningful measure of success stopping or even slowing the Patriots, why not jam these guys at the line and beat 'em up? The Chargers have the pass-rushing personnel to attack Brady in the backfield and supply steady pressure, and perhaps if they have any measure of success disrupting the clean release of his receivers, they may be the first team to force Brady into the kind of mistakes that lead to turnovers and strong field position. Inevitably, any discussion of an upcoming Patriots game becomes an exercise in suspending disbelief: if the Patriots play at a level that even resembles their efficiency up to this point, they should win pretty easily. What's the point of dissecting a potential strategy for the Patriots? If they do what they always do, as well as they've always done it, they should win.

Who can pick the Chargers in this game? Going out on a limb with the Jaguars is one thing: they hadn't faced the Patriots yet in 2007, featured a strong running game and a fantastic defense, and were probably the AFC's second hottest team. The Chargers could be the AFC's third hottest team, but with injury concerns and a loss to the Patriots already on their resume, optimism is hard to come by.

Unless you're Igor Olshansky, of course.
Patriots over Chargers by a wide margin.

We'll recap on Tuesday or Wednesday. Until then . . .