Week 3 NFL Picks

Right. Here we go . . .

Kansas City @ Atlanta
The Line: Atlanta by 5
The Chiefs have no offense, and though they have a lot of very young talent on defense, those guys aren't yet able to go out and reliably win individual match-ups yet. Combined with the relative simplicity and lack of ingenuity of Herm Edwards' defensive schemes, you've got a defense that won't change the look of a game.
Hard to know what that means in Atlanta. You take that combo and put it on the road in almost any other NFL city, and they get handled. I expect Atlanta to give a good effort and have a good game plan, but you just can't tell. The stadium will likely not fill, or even come especially close, and the Falcons are so young it's hard to predict what kind of execution you'll see on the field. If both of these teams can be expected to max out in the neighborhood of maybe two good, long drives against competent NFL defenses, you've got to swing maybe another turnover or field goal to the home team owing to the whole home field advantage thing, right? So maybe the Falcons pull it out. No matter what happens, this is the rare week 3 game that will be extremely difficult for even home fans to give a damn about.
Falcons over Chiefs, 17-10

Oakland @ Buffalo
The Line: Buffalo by 9
I'm trying to bite my tongue (for the most part) about the Al Davis/Lane Kiffin deal. I'm worried that as soon as I open my mouth in a substantial way about it, I won't be able to stop for a few days. One note: there was a piece on ESPN.com that seemed to be defending Al Davis and criticizing Lane Kiffin. After reading it, I was rendered speechless for a good 15 minutes.
Buffalo has a little mojo going right now. They won a road game against a good, tough opponent even without a major contribution from Marshawn Lynch, which is a huge, huge boost. Back at home, they have a very good opportunity to get to 3-0 before what ought to be a week 4 bloodbath versus St. Louis. In fact, looking at their schedule, they're in great, great shape to go into their week 6 bye week with a perfect record, provided they take care of business against one-dimensional teams like Oakland. In that sense, I suppose we'll learn quite a bit about the Buffalo Bills in this game.
As for the Raiders, pretty clearly their only hope of winning this game rests on their ability to dominate on the ground. They could do it, it's not like Buffalo's defense is especially great, and Oakland pretty clearly has the deepest backfield in football. I guess I should be more jazzed up for this game, but I'm just not. I will say I think the 9-point spread is pretty ambitious. I like the Bills, but that kind of spread is a bit harder to cover against a team that runs the ball as well and as often as the Raiders.
Bills over Raiders, 20-16

Tampa Bay @ Chicago
The Line: Chicago by 3
Wow, it's pretty amazing how predicting these really ugly, boring games right at the start of the post can really sap my enthusiasm for the whole exercize. Ummm . . . I don't know. Either of these teams could be good enough to get absolutely demolished by a legitimate contender one week, then go out and muscle past another also-ran. Neither of them is probably bad enough to win fewer than, say, 7 games. It's tragic, really. And just like many of the great works of tragedy, I don't really give a damn. I'm giving Chicago a home bump, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Tampa pull it out. Tampa needs the victory much more than Chicago, but Lovie Smith needs the victory more than Jon Gruden. I'm talking in circles here. Chicago wins!
Bears over Bucs, 14-13

Carolina @ Minnesota
The Line: Minnesota by 3.5
So Brad Childress finally pulled the plug on Tarvaris Jackson, electing to go with Gus Frerotte as his quarterback for the rest of the season. He'd better hope Frerotte doesn't go down with an injury, he's pretty much permanently wrecked Jackson's confidence. First, you stick the guy in an offense that absolutely doesn't play to his strengths, then you send him out there with what seems to be a mandate to make no mistakes whatsoever, with a Minnesota fanbase out for blood and virtually no margin for error, then you pull him and bench him in the third game of the season, hammering home the "no margin for error" message. Forget about Tarvaris Jackson in Minnesota. This guy will never make another mistake without being booed lustily by Vikings fans. What I can't understand and never will is what makes "fans" turn on and cannibalize a guy who was drafted by your franchise to play the most difficult position in sports. Today I had a chance to talk with a chronically grumpy former co-worker who is what you might consider a typical home-town Redskins fan, in that he spends half his time in some delusional state where he thinks everyone on his home team is the best in the world at what they do, and the other half booing them, shitting on them, hating their guts, and decrying the end of the world for a team he supposedly supports. He spent the entire conversation angrily shouting that Jason Campbell "isn't our quarterback!", that Colt Brennan (of all people) is the right guy, that Campbell has already proven himself to be not just a bum, but an evil asshole bum, worthy of contempt and harsh treatment. See, it's these same morons in Minnesota, booing a guy in his home stadium with his team up 15-0 in the second game of the year, shouting profanities at him and actively hoping for his demise. And you call yourselves fans. Well here's your dessert, you embarrassments to fandom: a full season of 35-year old Gus Frerotte. Super Bowl, here we come!
As for Carolina, yardage on the ground will be very, very difficult to come by in this game. The passing game has seemed to have enough mojo through two games to go to work against a not-very-good Minnesota secondary, especially with Steve Smith back. Hard to know which way to go here: I had a hunch Carolina would be decent this year, and I feel like I could, with confidence, pick them to win a handful of tough road games, but I'm not sure how I feel about them going into Minnesota to face an already desperate Vikings team that has probably figured out they need to commit even further to the ground game to just get a win and a little momentum. Vegas like Minny by more than a field-goal . . . how much of that is just leftover optimism from the Jared Allen pickup? You know what? I'm just crazy enough to pick the Panthers.
Panthers over Vikings, 21-17

Miami @ New England
The Line: New England by 12.5
Yep, that looks about right.
Patriots over Dolphins by a lot

Cincinnati @ New York Giants
The Line: New York Giants by 13.5
Man, you know you've fallen hard and fast when you go from being a trendy sleeper pick in your division to having longer odds in Vegas than a 1-15 team against a 16-0 team from last season. Wow. Wow, wow, wow.
I wouldn't give them that kind of margin if I were laying the spread, but on the other hand, who in the hell would ever give the points if you made it any closer? The thing is, you just never know with Cincinnati, not until you know. I feel like we're almost at the point of truly knowing, you know? Like, at a certain point, they really are what they are. You know what? This is that game. Either Cincinnati comes out and plays like professionals in this game on Sunday, or they're officially tied with St. Louis as the worst team in football. We'll know for sure by Sunday night. I'm not saying they need to win the game, but dammit, they need to show up and do a thing or two. Right now, they're not better than any other team in the NFL, just maybe still a little dangerous. If it doesn't show up Sunday, they're no longer dangerous, they're a sure thing.
Giants over Bengals, 28-20

Houston @ Tennessee
The Line: Tennessee by 5
Man, what a shitty break for the Texans. On the one hand, they had an extra week to assemble for this game, but seriously, does anybody think they actually spent the week preparing? No way. These guys had family members and houses and pets and possessions to lock down with a hurricane bearing down, then they had family members and houses and pets and possessions to relocate and account for in the wake of major devastation to their city. Sure, they practiced, but now, instead of having an actual bye week near the middle of the season to get healthy, they had a last-minute bye in week 2 to basically make sure their whole lives hadn't blown or floated away. Now they get to travel to Tennessee to face maybe the NFL's toughest defense at the start of 15 weeks of uninterrupted football. And these guys don't even know who they really are yet, you know? They got pounded in week 1, and they barely even had time to have a good rah-rah speech before shit went nuts. I genuinely pity the fools.
That stuff aside, they need this win in a bad, bad way. A win here puts them back at zero and allows them to pull their heads above water and get their bearings. It buys them a week without people second-guessing everything, without people's jobs being questioned, without all the distracting talk that comes with being a trendy pick that opens the season 0-2.
The Titans maybe aren't desperate for the win like the Texans, but it sure would go a long way towards righting their focus in the direction of winning football games. This whole Vince Young mess is really shitty, and I'm going to have to give the benefit of the doubt to Jeff Fisher that he knows what he's doing in announcing that Kerry Collins will start as long as the Titans are winning. That's a pretty slim margin, isn't it? Does that mean if they lose a game after Vince gets healthy, he's back in? Or does it mean as long as Collins plays well, they can lose a game or two and he'll stay in there? Or is this indirectly saying they don't expect Collins to play especially well, so the only difference between him playing and him not playing is whether or not Fisher can justify taking him out because the team hasn't won? Jeff Fisher has long proven himself to be the man, a great NFL head coach. Hopefully he knows what he's doing. Certainly, it's a tough situation for anybody.
Sheesh, call this the Pity Party. I almost forgot it's a division game! Titans win!
Titans over Texans, 19-17

Arizona @ Washington
The Line: Washington by 3
It all comes down to one thing, really: the Redskins must get pressure on Kurt Warner. I don't know what to expect of Arizona's defense. I really don't even know what to expect of Washington's offense. I do know that if Washington can put a few hits on Warner, especially early in the game, and stay in his face, he'll put a few balls up for grabs and definitely start dropping the ball. So here it is, this is why you signed Jason Taylor, for this exact game. It's time for Taylor to go out and earn his pay. One nice, hard hit on Warner in the first series and this one is in the bag. Blitz, blitz, blitz. To hell with stuffing the run on that first series, above all else, Kurt Warner must be made aware of the pass rush early in this game.
One positive: Jim Zorn has spent the past however many seasons helping to game plan for the Arizona Cardinals defense, so he should be well aware of their tendencies and how to attack certain guys. I'm counting on this, because I have a feeling only Mike Sando and maybe one or two other die-hard NFC West observers have a clue what the Arizona defense is all about. If Arizona wins this game, on the road, to go 3-0 to start the season, it'll be time to start getting used to the idea of them winning the NFC West. They're the only team in the division that can claim to be both healthy and even marginally competent. For Washington, a win here puts them right back in the discussion of wild-card teams and will go a long way towards giving them confidence for the upcoming road-and-road divisional match-ups. Very important to take care of these winnable home contests. Like I said before, they need to find a way to be at least .500 at week 6.
Oh, right, who'll win? Well, Arizona has looked pretty damn lights out to this point, but they haven't really been tested yet, especially in the pass-protection department. Washington, on the other hand, got handled by the Super Bowl champs and then pretty soundly outplayed a team with legitimate playoff aspirations. I'm giving the home bump to the Skins and crossing my fingers they can limit Arizona's big plays.
Redskins over Cardinals, 24-21

New Orleans @ Denver
The Line: Denver by 5.5
To be honest, I feel like this game is the question, not the answer. In other words, I don't effing know. Denver has home field, and that's a strong home field advantage they've got there. Certainly, there's every reason to expect them to win this game. To be honest, I'm not sure we'll have figured them out if they win, but we'll know pretty much everything if they lose. As for New Orleans, they just don't seem like the kind of team that can go to a place like Denver and blow up. And it'll probably take a big blow-up to out-point the Broncos in Denver. If they do it, hey, great, they're a legitimate playoff contender. If not, they're just not the kind of team that has that kind of game in them. They barely got past Tampa, they were outplayed in Washington, and if they go to Denver and put up another decent offensive game without looking especially dangerous, that's who they are. Solid, professional, but not dangerous.
That's exactly what I'm predicting.
Denver over New Orleans, 34-27

Detroit @ San Francisco
The Line: San Francisco by 4
Honestly, who knows and who cares? Detroit probably doesn't have the pass rush, even against the Mike Martz offense, to do anything. Neither team will be able to avoid mistakes enough to pull away. It'll probably go back and forth, one team will do something retarded at a bad moment, and it'll cost 'em.
Well fuck it, I've been picking home teams like a true coward, and I hate the idea of the Niners going 2-1 and seeing Nolan and Martz with slimy smirks on their faces. Blech. Go Lions!
Lions over 49ers, 31-28

St. Louis @ Seattle
The Line: Seattle by 9.5
For God's sake, if Seattle can't win this game, they won't win more than 4 games all year. They got absolutely flattened in Buffalo and then lost, so help me, to the 49ers. They've given up over 60 points through 2 games. Their quarterback has been absolute garbage. It's a train wreck in Seattle, with giblets flying in all directions.
St. Louis is . . . well, simply the most depressing team I can remember. A dead man walking at head coach, the most overpaid quarterback in the NFL (and he's being quickly exposed as a mediocre quarterback at best), a greedy, overrated asshole of a runningback, no offensive line, no defense, and Torry Holt, who'll be forced to retire in oblivion, having long been rendered obsolete in all but fantasy circles. What a disaster. They've got enough talent to win a few games, but there's some nasty poison at work in St. Louis. Blech. Will they go on the road and take down the division bully? Or will Seattle have that crazy, back to the wall, white-of-the-eyes ferocity that a tougher, legit team might play with at 0-2? Or do they even need it?
No, they don't. St. Louis is just that bad. Seattle, even in their poor state, could probably sleepwalk through this game. Patrick Kerney and Julian Peterson are licking their chops right now. Marc Bulger will probably shit blood Sunday night.
Seahawks over Rams, 27-13

Cleveland @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 2
Please, please let Cleveland win this game. Please. Because if they don't, they're done. Romeo Crennel will be on the block. Derek Anderson will be out. Kellen Winslow will chew someone's eyeball out. Braylon Edwards will check out. It'll be over, all the excitement and optimism and everything. I can't handle that, not three games in. They haven't even gotten to the really juicy part of their schedule yet. C'mon guys, put some points up for Christ's sake!
Shit, man, Baltimore has had a whole bye week to get ready for this game. I can't take this crap. I need Cleveland to win this game.
Browns over Ravens, 21-12

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
The Line: Indianapolis by 5.5
It will be very hard for Jacksonville to salvage this season if they lose this game. Very, very hard. Their schedule won't get any more forgiving, and they'll be in a very deep hole in their division. Still, with Bob Sanders down, how in the hell will Indy stop Jacksonville's ground game?
Alright, if I'm a Jaguars fan, here's how I'm talking myself into a Jacksonville victory: the Colts have looked like crap through two games; they can't run the ball; they can't stop the run; their best defensive player is out for 6 weeks; we've yet to hit our stride offensively; our defense was recently pretty great; we probably don't need to score more than 20 points to win the game.
And if I'm an Indy man, it goes like this: we've got the best quarterback in the NFL and a great receiving corps; our ground game is due to break out; Jacksonville is the only other team in the NFL as banged up on the offensive line as we are; we've traditionally owned these guys; we can pretty much outscore anybody when we're on; the Jags haven't been able to run the ball for shit yet; David Garrard has looked like crap and Jacksonville's offensive line has been terrible in pass-protection; if we put up 20 points, we probably win the game; we're at home.
Frankly, I like Jacksonville's argument better. They've convinced me.
Jaguars over Colts, 21-20

Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia
The Line: Philadelphia by 3
Tough game. If Philly wins, it doesn't mean much for Pittsburgh. They went on the road and lost to a really, really dangerous team, but they're still the class of the division, and still probably have a lead in their division. Heck, even if they don't have a lead in the division, it'll be because Baltimore has had a pair of surprising wins, but are the Ravens keeping pace? Fuck no.
If Philly loses, it probably doesn't mean much for them either, but it'll feel like something. Because a team that could legitimately be all the way back and ready to contend for the Conference will be 1-2 and in a hole in their division. Philly's (worst in the league) fans will almost certainly start calling for people's heads. In that regard, Philly definitely needs the game more. On the other hand, they've got home field and a more experienced coach, and I at least think they have that Eagles swagger back. I see them winning this game. In fact, I don't think it'll be especially close.
Eagles over Steelers, 27-17

Dallas @ Green Bay
The Line: Dallas by 3
Man do I want Green Bay to win this game. I'm already sick of the Cowboys. I think Green Bay's defense is better. I think the offenses are about even. I like the home field. In short, I'm perfectly able to convince myself that Green Bay will win the game. It's a thin argument, but it's all I need. I guess the variable will be how Aaron Rodgers responds to the really high pressure that will come with this game, or how he handles a very big, very fast defense swarming around and swaggering. Dammit, I trust the little fucker. I hope somebody flattens Tony Romo just so I can see that whimpering little bitch face he makes.
Packers over Cowboys, 75-5

New York Jets @ San Diego
The Line: San Diego by 9
Where the hell did that line come from? And isn't Brett Favre the perfect guy to go into San Diego and just rip the hearts out of the Chargers when their balls are still rolling around the turf in Denver? The 0-2 Chargers by 9 points over the 1-1 Jets? Sheeeeeeiiit.
Actually, that sounds about right.
Chargers over Jets, 30-21 (See how I did that? 9 points, y'all!)

Sorry the picks are a bit lame in Week 3. My enthusiasm for the picks was really tapped by the abundance of games I actually don't give a damn about.

Go Skynards!