Week 5 Magic!

First, a few things I have to say.

1. Good news on the Anquan Boldin front. It looks like he'll be fine. That was one hell of a shot he took Sunday afternoon.
2. Man, what a horrible bit of news to open the newspaper to regarding Jacksonville defensive lineman Richard Collier. I mean, this news made me lose my appetite for a whole day. Poor guy. One day, you're a young player on a pro football team with a promising season and career ahead of you, then a couple weeks later you're paralyzed from the waste down and have had your leg amputated. Really, this poor guy. Richard Collier deserves some serious wonderful shit in his life after going through this. Not only will this guy not play football again, he went from being a brilliant athlete to being a paralyzed amputee who will absolutely never walk again in his life. I mean, thank God he survived being shot 14 times, but damn.
3. The Raiders don't play this Sunday, so you might think I would have to take a pass on crapping all over Al Davis. In fact, that's a large part of the reason why Davis chose to act this week. Of course, giving his team 2 weeks to prepare under a new head coach is part of the deal, but let's not pretend this guy wasn't trying to slide this in as close to under the radar as possible by doing it when a weekend of NFL football could divert attention. Al Davis is one of the scummiest assholes in human history. What a piece of shit, through and through. It's not enough to threaten to fire a guy for almost a year. It's not enough to publicly embarrass your team week after week in a young season. It isn't even enough to interview members of your head coach's staff for his position before firing him. No, apparently the only sufficient way to win a battle of wills with a guy is to go before the media and rant like a big, ugly baby, call him a disgrace to the organization and a liar. Even if Kiffin is a liar, even if he has disgraced the organization, man what kind of piece of shit loser has such a small useless dick that he has to make sure the sports media at large knows the ins and outs. I couldn't have less respect for Al Davis if he were the Vice Presidential nominee on John McCain's ticket. And as for Tom Cable, look; so you want to be an NFL head coach, great. Interview for your boss's job before he's been fired in the midst of one of the all-time tackiest, ugliest, most pathetic exercises in the absolute misuse of the power of ownership, then accept the job with a big shit-eating grin on your face. I hope you enjoy exile, dick. When Davis cans your ass for the next future-former head coach of the Raiders, you'll be lucky to get a job serving hot-dogs in the NFL.
And that's all I have to say about that, other than I feel really bad for Oakland's players. They don't need this crap. As if playing an NFL season isn't enough to worry about.

And now, the magic picks!

Tennessee @ Baltimore
The Line: Tennessee by 3
It's tempting to pick Tennessee. Obviously, Jeff Fisher is the better coach. Obviously, the Titans are the better team. Obviously, they've got more momentum and a stronger identity. For many, many reasons, the Titans are the favorites and they represent the better pick.
On the other hand, the Ravens are at home. More importantly, I imagine the veterans on Baltimore's roster have had a look at their schedule and the division standings in the AFC North. They just played the Steelers; they now know the Steelers are beatable. They've already dunked Cincinnati and Cleveland. They're starting to realize you don't have to be especially good at all to win the AFC North. You really don't. You just have to play hard, stay in games, and be healthy. With the Steelers on death's door, health-wise, this division could very well go to a 9-7 team. Why not us, they're asking? We're 2-1. Our defense is sound. Our running game is solid. We're even getting a contribution from our rookie quarterback. Certainly, we've made the playoffs and, hell, even won a Super Bowl with this much going for us!
Now, the Titans are not pushovers, but the Ravens are looking for a statement game. They thought they had it on the road in Pittsburgh, but it got away from them. Now, they're at home, pissed off, hungry, and facing a Tennessee team that, while quite good, hasn't played a single team that was both any good at all and healthy at the same time. In Baltimore, I like the Ravens. I really do. I see them bottling up what passes for an offense in Tennessee, running around like frothing, rabid Rottweilers on defense, and taking advantage of Kerry Collins' first poor outing of the season. Ravens win! Ravens win! Ravens win!
And . . . I think they'll compete for the division all year long. That's a whole different blog entry.
Ravens over Titans, 16-13

Kansas City @ Carolina
The Line: Carolina by 9.5
It should be a 10 point game. It really should. Kansas City is awful. On the road, you'd expect them to be even worse.
Hey, I'm not sold on Carolina either. I think they're a good team, a much improved team from last season and finally (finally!) healthy. Of all teams in the NFL, I like Carolina the least at home, but they're still at home. Dammit, I'm picking Carolina. If they lose, it'll be a big upset. Could they lose? Sure! Kansas City has some plucky young talent on defense, you never know when they might pull out that "hey, we're more athletic than everybody!" game. It could be this week. Carolina could still be that team that shows up half-dead and sleepwalks through a snoozer. They do have two straight division games up after this one, this could be a trap. Sure. But I'm not picking Kansas City on the road. Not ever. Frankly, I can't believe I spent this many words defending this pick.
Panthers over Chiefs, 24-16

Chicago @ Detroit
The Line: Chicago by 3.5
I hope Chicago wins. Not because I bear any specific animosity towards the Lions. In fact, I pity the fools. I think they've got some talented, proud offensive players. I think they're still trying to get the stink off them from years of mismanagement and at least a season of Mike Martz's self-promoting sideshow offense. It's just . . . I think I like the NFL better if Lovie Smith's Chicago Bears are a feisty playoff contender. I really do. Not only do I like ol' Lovie, I just like the idea of a strong Bears team.
Now, having said that, I'm picking the Lions. Yeah, I know. And it'll probably be the last time that ever happens. But I like the idea of the Lions shit-canning Matt Millen, of getting that embarrassing monkey off their backs, and of having the bye-week to try their damnedest to scrap together some kind of defense.
Chicago is loads, loads, LOADS better than Detroit. They scrap. They claw. They hustle. They know where to be and how to get there. They anticipate. They're well coached, they believe in what they're trying to do, and it shows. How can the Lions win this game? Well . . . it's a home game, isn't it? And the Lions pretty obviously have the top 2 players in this game, Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. And sooner or later, Detroit is going to play with their helmets on forward and their shoes on the correct feet in the first half, not just the second half, and when that happens, they'll have enough firepower down the stretch to hang around or even win a game. So there. So I'm picking the Lions.

Whoa, wait, what just happened? I'm picking WHO? No, I don't think so. All that stuff up there could be true, but who in their right mind picks these Lions? Holy hell, that was close.
Bears over Lions, 28-24

Atlanta @ Green Bay
The Line: Green Bay by 7
No way Atlanta wins this game. A victory for the Falcons would be a seven point loss. If they play with heart and execute like professionals, that will be a victory. But they can't win on the scoreboard. Green Bay really really needs this win. If they lose this game, if they were to give up Atlanta's first road win, hot-shot rookie quarterback versus hot-shot young quarterback who, oh, happened to shove Brett Favre out of town, Aaron Rodgers will be in trouble. He just will. Not with his coaches or front office, but with the fans and within his own head. This is a huge, huge, huge game for Green Bay. They can't play poorly and win. I mean, they can, but an ugly win won't do the trick. They've slid so far down the NFC East totem pole they might as well not exist. They need to come out hot, play well, and dominate the Falcons. And I think they will.
Packers over Falcons, 31-17

Indianapolis @ Houston
The Line: Indianapolis by 3
Huge, huge, huge game in the AFC. All AFC eyes will be on this match-up. If Indianapolis can't come back from the bye week and put a beatdown on an AFC South rival they've historically pooped all over, it'll be a bad sign for Indy fans.
And Houston so needs this win. And this is their first home game. You don't think the Houston fans will be over-the-top insane for this game? Against the division's big dogs? The limping big-dogs? If Houston's fans have a single testacle between the lot of them, they'll be glad they pulled the roof back in the Reliant jenx, otherwise they would have blown that bitch into orbit. Seriously, this shouldn't just be a 12th man, it should be a 12th thru 75,000th. This is as much a statement game for Houston's fanbase as it is for the Texans franchise. Show up!
As for the game, hey, I can't pick against these Colts coming off a bye week. I can't, not even on the road when they've looked extraordinarily vulnerable through 3 games. In the past, home vs. road hasn't meant a whole lot to the Colts in division contests, and this season the Colts' only win was on the road, so I'm not sure they care too much about the venue. All of this was a long way of explaining that I'm definitely picking the Colts, and I'm sincerely hoping this game is as excellent as last weekend's AFC South showdown.
Colts over Texans, 37-28

San Diego @ Miami
The Line: San Diego by 6.5
San Diego will definitely show up flat here. Didn't Norv Turner do a stint in Miami once? I'm not sure that matters, but it occured to me just now.
Anyway, back to my point: San Diego will definitely sleepwalk through at least the first quarter. There's a very real possibility that Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will go completely nuts against San Diego's bullshit defense, and if that happens, the Dolphins could very well win the game. I can't pick it that way, but it could happen. Funny how regular guys like me recognize the overall phony-ness of this Chargers team, but the sports media at large is still slobbering all over their junk.
Still, San Diego probably pulls this one out. They've got a lot more talent than the Dolphins. I could see Miami winning. I could even see picking Miami. But I'm not in the mood, and this Dolphins team is not the kind of team I'm willing to go out on a limb for, even at home.
Chargers over Dolphins, 24-13

Seattle @ New York Giants
The Line: New York Giants by 7
I suppose this could be a close game. Damn do the Seahawks need it. I guess I just don't see them as the kind of team that goes on the road and beats a good NFC East team. But they could win. They could.
I guess I just don't have a whole hell of a lot to say about this match-up. Both teams are coming off bye weeks. The Seahawks need it more, but the Giants are better and at home. I'm taking the favorite.
Giants over Seahawks, 27-20

Washington @ Philadelphia
The Line: Philadelphia by 5.5
Here's the thing, and I really mean this: Philly is the team that needs to play nearly perfect to win this game. Washington can play only as well as they played against Arizona or Dallas and they'll win. Philly needs to play better than they've played in any game this season to win. If they're only as good offensively as they were when they hosted Pittsburgh, they'll lose. If they're only as good defensively as they were at Dallas or at Chicago, they'll lose. They need the even, well-rounded performance they haven't had this season. In short, they have a smaller margin of error than Washington. And they don't get nearly the home boost many other teams get, especially in games against Washington, when they have a history of coming up empty.
So I'm taking the Skins. Of course, I'm a big fan. On the other hand, they're in a groove, and I really trust Jim Zorn to put together a game plan that succeeds against Philly's defense. The way I see it, if the Eagles start slow, they're cooked.
And that's that.
Redskins over Eagles, 31-23

Tampa Bay @ Denver
The Line: Denver by 3
I really want to take Tampa in this one, and here's why: the Bucs are more professional, more well-rounded, and they have the single most frustrating offense in the NFL for pass-happy teams. The Broncos are totally false, a mere two plays away from being 1-3 right now. Sooner or later, they're going to drop a home game and the floodgates will open. This could very well be that game.
However, I did eat crap last Sunday going down with a host of road teams, so I'm not sure I'm ready to pick an also-ran like Tampa on the road. I expect them to outperform the Broncos, but I won't be surprised either way. Shit. Shit shit shit. Dammit.
How does Tampa Bay win this game? They shut down the run (easy enough, they're good at that), eliminate the big play (that's what the Tampa-2 does), force some turnovers (count on it), run the ball well (and really, who couldn't against this Denver defense), and take advantage of good field position and red-zone opportunities (a coin flip, really). Wow, that sounds surprisingly easy.
How does Denver win against Tampa? Jay Cutler needs to manipulate the safeties and make rock solid decisions under fire . . . uh oh. Denver needs to establish the run. Shit. They can't let the Bucs get going on the ground. Oh damn. They need to pressure and hit Brian Griese . . . know what? They can do that part. And they're at home, so there's that. God damn.

Shit. Really, shit

Ah fuck. Bucs win! Bucs win! Bucs win!
Bucs over Broncos . . . no wait . . . damn. For the Bucs to win, they'll need, what, 27 points? At least? In Denver? Or they'll need a lights out defensive performance. Gaaaaaaahhh. Dammit.
Ok, here we go.
Bucs over Broncos, 28-27

Buffalo @ Arizona
The Line: Even (that's right, Even.)
And Arizona will win, dammit! Buffalo isn't this good, ok? They're benefiting from an easy schedule! Yes, I like the Bills. Yes, they're quite good. But for crying out loud, they're not 4-0 good, and they're sure as hell not 5-0 good. And Arizona isn't 2-3 bad, either. Arizona can score like a mother. Their defense has been very, very up and down, to put it nicely. But if they pressure the kid, sooner or later he's going to play like, well, Trent Effing Edwards.
I don't even like talking about this game. I like both teams. I'll be so disappointed in the Cardinals if they drop this home game.
Cardinals over Bills, 30-24

Cincinnati @ Dallas
The Line: Dallas by 17
That's right, get drilled in the ass at home, spend a week embarrassing yourselves in the media, and wind up with a 2007 New England Patriots-like 17-point spread.
These are the two gayest teams in the NFL. San Diego is right up there in the running, as is Denver, but Cincinnati and Dallas are tops. Blame it on T.O. and Ocho Cinco, the two most repugnant players in the NFL.
Cincinnati can't win this game, but boy will I be rooting for them like I've never rooted for the Bengals before. Even more than last season's match-up with the Patriots. Because as much as I hated the 2007 Patriots, at least the Bengals could still think of being a competitive team last season. This season, they're garbage, which would make it that much more satisfying if they squirted an oil slick all over the Cowboys on Sunday.
It won't happen. This should be a blowout. Take the points.
Cowboys over Bengals, 34-17

New England @ San Francisco
The Line: New England by 3
I'm predicting a bloodbath. If San Francisco wins, and only if San Francisco wins, I will stop picking New England to win bloodbath games.
Patriots over 49ers by a million billion points

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville
The Line: Jacksonville by 4
Pittsburgh has a real opportunity to fight their way back into my good graces by showing up and playing something other than an embarrassingly awkward game in Jacksonville. Call me crazy, but I think the torch of being the thumping, brutal, nobody-wants-to-play-us-in-the-playoffs team in the AFC has been passed to the Jaguars, probably right around the time they crammed their foot up Pittsburgh's asses in the wildcard round last year.
Jacksonville is healthier at the skill positions and has some mojo going after their effing gorgeous win over Houston last Sunday. They don't have a huge stadium, but they've got some serious fans there in Jacksonville, a nice loud crowd with pretty good football savvy. I like the Jags.
Jaguars over Steelers, 20-14

Minnesota @ New Orleans
The Line: New Orleans by 3
First, this weekend has some really nice games. Frankly, I don't think there's a dog among 'em.
Now, for this game. That's a pretty slim line for a 1-3 team on the road against a 2-2 team in the top 5 in the NFL in scoring and total offense. That would be Vegas hedging themselves against the very real likelihood that New Orleans could trot out their first and second team defenses against the Vikings and still give up 250 rushing yards. It's very possible Minnesota's ground game could dominate this game.
But do you take a 1-3 team with uneven pass-protection, bad pass-defense, poor quarterbacking, suspect playcalling, and sometimes-comical clock management on the road against a competent, healthy playoff contender? I don't see how. Even if Minnesota runs the ball very well, is that enough for them to win? I'm not convinced. I mean Adrian Peterson would have to go all the way . . . well . . . Adrian Peterson on the Saints for them to realistically win this game. It could happen. But do you bet on it?
Nope!
Saints over Vikings, 27-21

And there you have it. I feel very, very good about my picks this week, hence the whole "magic" thing. I think I've got 10 or even 11 wins on the books here. After last week's horrible showing, the NFL hooked me up with a series of games I feel pretty good picking.
Of course, come Tuesday morning, I may feel totally different about this. I did pick only 8 of 15 home teams. For crying out loud. Damn. Is it too late to change a few of those?

Ah hell, just stick with 'em.

Go Skynards!