Week 8, In Which I Bounce Back With a 14-0 Record

And off we go:

Oakland @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 7
I'm intrigued by this game. I'm interested to see whether Tom Cable can coax a serious effort out of this team in as hostile an environment as Baltimore, against this level of defensive pressure, in a 1pm game all the way across the country.

That traveling East thing makes this one a little easier to call, doesn't it? I've got to think the kind of team you don't want to face at 1oam on Sunday morning is the kind that kicks you in the groin, starts air-humping you like a horny dog when you bend over in agony, then finishes you off with a vicious uppercut. And that's what Baltimore's defense will try to do to a tired Oakland team: they'll try to own them and punish them. It could be ugly.

So for Baltimore to win, they need to continue to stuff the run, they need to keep Oakland from hitting any big plays, and they need to limit their turnovers. This one won't be about pressuring Jamarcus Russell or hitting any big plays, but about controlling time of possession, winning the battle of field position, and waiting for a short field or a turnover to make the difference. I don't see this Oakland team doing too much under such brutal travel conditions, they're bound to implode.

And it's impossible to diagnose how the Raiders could possibly pull it off, but if it's going to happen, it's going to happen the exact same way the Ravens might do it. Control the line of scrimmage, play on a short field, stuff the run, wait for a turnover. This might be that rare slow, ugly slugfest that is actually fun to watch, because that's how the teams are supposed to be playing.

Or, it could be a Minnesota/Chicago style horror show. Let's hope not. Ultimately, I like Baltimore in a low-scoring affair. It's also possible the Ravens could run away with it if the Raiders do end up imploding, but I'm predicting a more quiet affair.
Ravens over Raiders, 16-10

Arizona @ Carolina
The Line: Carolina by 4.5
Is this the week Arizona gets going on the road? This is a huge match-up, and in the best way, too: sometimes match-ups are huge because the winning team gets to continue to contend, and the loser is officially toast. Those are huge but almost always depressing in the end. This is huge because a loss isn't necessarily too bad for either team, but both teams have a chance to make a statement, gain a little swagger, position themselves a little better for the playoff chase, and increase their lead within their division. I'm looking forward to it.

Carolina's secondary has been outstanding this season, and they'll need it to stay that way, because Arizona has a serious passing attack. Carolina's second-ranked passing defense against Arizona's second-ranked passing offense . . . what could be better? Arizona will need the ground game in this one, especially if Julius Peppers plays like he did against New Orleans on Sunday. The Cardinals will need Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower to pound out some yards, if only to keep Carolina's pass-rush from getting to Kurt Warner too consistently. On the road, if Warner takes a few too many shots early in this game, it could be real ugly. We're talking Cardinals/Jets ugly, 6 turnovers ugly. This could be one of those games where every time the Cardinals dial up a pass play, we get a good look at the whites of Warner's eyes as he goes into full shut-down mode under pressure. I hope not!

As for Carolina, I suppose the script is pretty simple, actually. They've got a good running game and the ability to hit some big plays. As with all Carolina games, they need to limit turnovers. The bad news is Arizona's defense is built to apply pressure on the passer and force turnovers. This is also a bit of a perfect storm because Arizona might be the NFL's best awful road team, and Carolina has previously been the NFL's best awful home team.

I can't pick with the Cardinals on the road, not against a 5-2 Panthers team that just de-pantsed an equally prolific passing attack in week 7. I think the Panthers will win, but there's still an opportunity for Arizona to make a statement, if they come in and fight to the death. Man, I really hope this one lives up to potential.
Panthers over Cardinals, 28-24

Tampa Bay @ Dallas
The Line: Dallas by 3.5
It might be a bit early to pick this one, to be honest. The whole nature of this contest changes if Tony Romo plays.

There are a few certainties: no matter who starts at quarterback, somebody on Dallas's roster will be tossing an interception in this game, and they'll probably lose a fumble, too. Not just because they apparently treat their quarterback's hands with grease before every game in Dallas, but because Tampa's pass rush is fearsome and their Tampa-2 is in high-gear at the moment. The combination of Dallas's proclivity for losing silly turnovers and Tampa's strength at forcing quarterbacks to make tough throws is bound to lead to at least two turnovers from the quarterback position for Dallas. Check that one off right now. So here's the real question: can Dallas overcome two turnovers and win this game? In order for that to happen, they'll need to a) run the ball very well, b) sustain and finish drives, c) stuff Tampa's offense, and d) force a few turnovers of their own. I feel okay about their ability to run the ball at home against Tampa, provided they actually commit in more than a token sense to the running game before the game is out of reach, owing mostly to the fact that their offensive line will have perhaps as big a size and strength advantage over Tampa's front seven as they'll have all season. They'll need to run the ball straight ahead, otherwise their size and strength is negated by Tampa's overwhelming speed advantage. Sustaining drives will come all the way down to running the ball successfully. Can they stuff Tampa's offense? Maybe. I'm not sold on Tampa's offense, and I don't expect Jon Gruden to use the ground game appropriately or successfully in a game of this magnitude. I don't see Dallas forcing many turnovers, mostly because Jeff Garcia doesn't turn the ball over.

But how long will Jerry Jones sit still on the Roy Williams trade before pressure starts to come down on Dallas's coaches to get him involved in the offense? That's another sub-plot of this game: I don't see Jones letting another week go by without unwrapping his shiny new toy and taking it out for a spin.

I see Dallas winning this game. I'm still not ready to write them all the way off, not just yet. Thing is, that Tampa-2 is a real sonofabitch, especially for teams that are used to passing the ball a lot and use a lot of crossing stuff over the middle of the field. Dallas is also in a very fragile state right now, I think everyone on the team senses the noose around Wade Phillips' neck. It's too much for me to pick them to drop another home game, not one they need so badly, but again, it's a game I'll be keeping a close eye on come Sunday.
Cowboys over Bucs, 20-17

Washington @ Detroit
The Line: Washington by 8.5
I feel better about this game than I did the last two. Part of that is obviously because, no matter how bad the Rams and Browns were headed into weeks 6 and 7, the Lions are that much worse. The other part of it is that I'm strangely confident that the Redskins are, right now, a better road team than home team.

The mental part of getting ready to play on the road might be easier for a team that is still trying to get its legs under it in a new offense. You're always prepared for a big fight on the road. You're always desperate. You'll always take what the defense gives you. You'll always hammer away on the ground, and there's no pressure from the fans in the stands to mix it up. A 3-point road win is a good thing, whereas a 3-point home win can be a disappointment. I don't think it's a coincidence that the Redskins played their two best games of the season on the road. I feel supremely confident that the Redskins will go into Detroit with an appropriately cagey mindset, especially after two tougher-than-expected home games against roadkill garbage.

It helps, of course, to know that the Lions can barely stay out of their own way of late. Whatever meager success they had against Houston's up-and-down defense will simply not carry over into a game against as feisty a unit as Washington's. Another full week of continuity with Dan Orlovsky under center should be a good thing for them, but I don't think it's enough to make headway against a defense that has now shut down former Pro-Bowlers Marc Bulger, Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, and Drew Brees, and Super Bowl MVPs Eli Manning and Kurt Warner. Not to put too fine a point on it here, but Detroit's is the worst offense the Redskins have faced by far this season, and Washington's defense is already ranked sixth overall in the NFL. Home or no, Detroit is an abysmal team.

So Washington needs to move the ball on offense and finish drives. They've got to avoid killer turnovers and penalties. If they put 20 or more points on the board and don't commit any brutal, Pete Kendall-style turnovers, this should be as easy a win as they'll have all season. I don't see a way in hell Detroit puts more than, say, 17 points up without significant help from the Redskins, and that's being very, very optimistic about Detroit's offense.

So there you have it.
Redskins over Lions, 21-14

Buffalo @ Miami
The Line: Buffalo by 1.5
Now here's a game I could see Buffalo losing. They haven't looked especially good on the road this season, and Miami is about as unorthodox a challenge as they're likely to face all season. The Dolphins need this win, and it's their second straight home game. This is the first of three straight division contests for the Bills, and this is probably the least meaningful for them. The Jets are closer in the standings and have the prolific quarterback. The Patriots . . . well, we know all about that. The Dolphins? Last year's doormat? The team at the bottom of the division? I won't say it's necessarily a trap game (because when is a division game a trap?), but I do feel confident saying there's a lot more to motivate the Dolphins in this game than the Bills.

Picking this game comes down to putting trust in the Bills. Do I believe in their 5-1 start? I keep feeling like I can put that determination off another week. Sooner or later, though, I'll have to give them all the credit they deserve for their record. For some reason, I feel like I'm waiting for them to come back to earth a little, and then I'll say "these are the Bills, I finally know who they really are." But that's bullshit, right? They only get to be who they really are if they are who I expected them to be all along? What if I'm wrong?

Know what? I owe it to 'em. Call this one an emotional pick. I feel like I've done a disservice to the Bills, much the way a lot of folks have been waiting for the Redskins to be who they "really" are. It's bull. Win football games, play well, get some credit.
Bills over Dolphins, 24-21

St. Louis @ New England
The Line: New England by 7
I will be amazed beyond description if the Rams win this game. I won't be too surprised if they make a contest out of it, only because I still don't feel like I really know who these Patriots are. Still, winning 3 straight under a new coach, with 2 of those wins on the road against pretty good teams, that might be too much to ask of the Rams. If it happens, Jim Haslett might overtake Jim Zorn, Mike Smith, Tony Sparano, John Harbaugh, and Dick Jauron as Coach of the Year.

That pretty much sums up how outside the realm of possibility a Rams win in this game really is. Expect a brutal domination.
Patriots over Rams, 31-17

San Diego vs. New Orleans @ London
The Line: San Diego by 3
Who knows how to call this kind of thing? What a shame that anybody should have to play a "home game" across the Atlantic Ocean in a stadium that, in a million years, couldn't be considered a home venue for any NFL football team.

Ummmmm . . . Saints win!
Saints over Chargers, 23-21

Kansas City @ New York Jets
The Line: New York Jets by 13
How lovely, that the NFL served up the Chiefs to this awful Jets team just in time to make everyone forget how piss poor they were on the road in Oakland in week 7.

And who fuckin' knows how the Chiefs can win this game, and who cares anyway. Brett Favre is nothing if not a front-runner, so he should ring up some absurd numbers in this one.

Jesus. Who cares.
Jets over Chiefs, 45-13

Atlanta @ Philadelphia
The Line: Philadelphia by 9
Philly by 9! Wow! Still getting a lot of credit in Vegas for a team that doesn't seem to give a shit about wins and losses.

I would so love for Atlanta to win this game. I'm done with Philly. I've moved on. I'm ready for Atlanta to make a big-time statement and suddenly become an uh-oh, oh-shit type of contender in the NFC South. Both teams should be healthy, rested, and well-prepared. The only thing is, how do you prepare a rookie quarterback for Jim Johnson's crazy-ass defense? Matt Ryan might be in for a real beating on Sunday.

As for Philly, this is a game they should win, it's a game they should dominate, and if you're an Eagles fan, that's why you should be very, very worried about week 8. Against oil-slicks, you can depend on the Eagles to deliver a whupping. Against very good teams, whether on the road or at home, you can expect the Eagles to compete like there's no tomorrow. For whatever reason, middle-of-the-road teams bring out the yawning, entitled assholes on this team, and Atlanta is exactly that kind of team. I can already see McNabb smirking at Matt Ryan and the Falcons, at their success, at all the hype. I don't mean to dump it all on McNabb, but you can bet he'll be the guy at the podium belittling Atlanta's achievement if the Falcons somehow do pull it off.

If you're Mike Smith, hey, run the ball, man. Run it a lot. You've got two very strong young runningbacks in Atlanta, cut 'em loose. Like Jim Zorn said, Jim Johnson has a way of making opposing passing attacks look really stupid, and I'd hate to be a rookie quarterback trying to make pre-snap reads against that mess. If Atlanta can figure out a way to run the ball successfully, they could pull it off. It's a long shot, though.

As for Philly, it's critical they not look past any team at this point. They're at the bottom of the NFC East and already seem like the victim. If the Cowboys weren't racing down towards them, they might already be out of the running in the division. They need every single game right now. They need something more than a beautifully scripted opening drive on offense. This Atlanta team has been too competitive, too scrappy to think you can dispose of them with one sharp possession.

Ultimately, I do think the Eagles find a way to get this win. I'll be very interested in this game on Sunday.
Eagles over Falcons, 27-20

Cleveland @ Jacksonville
The Line: Jacksonville by 7
For whatever reason, I see this one as a bloodbath, a feeding frenzy. From the moment I looked at it on this week's schedule (about 90 minutes ago), I've had a feeling Jacksonville is going to kick the living shit out of the Browns and send them home bruised and broken.

I just want to get that out there, because I think seven points is a very charitable line for the Browns. They only lost by three in Washington on Sunday, but let's not forget the following: 1. they gave up 175 yards to Clinton Portis, and 2. Derek Anderson played about as poorly as I've ever seen a starting NFL quarterback play. If I'd missed last season, I'm not sure you could convince me at all that Anderson had been a Pro Bowl player. Now, Jacksonville is nowhere near as good as the Redskins, but they've had a bye week to prepare and the Browns can't be feeling too confident about themselves, not after they played so poorly and were so out of sync on Sunday that their quarterback and fullback got into a shoving match on the field.

No, I see Jacksonville moving the ball at will against the Browns, and I see the Jaguars taking advantage of Anderson's inaccuracy to much greater effect than the Redskins. I really do think this'll be a laugher. If I'm wrong, I'll feel pretty silly about it.
Jaguars over Browns, 28-10

Cincinnati @ Houston
The Line: Houston by 9.5
What an outstanding opportunity for Houston to notch a third straight win and creep even closer to .500. Three weeks ago, did anybody think this team would get close to .500 this season?

And there really isn't much to say about this contest. Houston's offense is probably way too much for Cincinnati's horrible defense, and Cincinnati has not recently been a team that travels well. Will Carson Palmer play? Who cares. As if this guy is the kind of quarterback that can lead this mess out of the gutter.

I see Matt Schaub having another excellent game, I see Steve Slaton breaking off another few big plays, and I see Owen Daniels and Andre Johnson each getting loose in Cincinnati's secondary. I don't think it's impossible that Cincinnati hangs tough, but they're not the kind of team that wins road games.
Texans over Bangals, 31-20

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh by 3
A monster of a game. This is week 8's gift to football fans, a meeting of two of the top 5 or 6 teams in football.

Pittsburgh's homefield advantage is significant. Not only are their fans outstanding, but the field itself is a very difficult obstacle for visiting teams. All three points of Pittsburgh's line, and maybe a few more, come from the homefield advantage. With as poorly as Eli Manning has played in New York's last two games, it's very possible the Steelers will pressure him into a total collapse. Pittsburgh's defense is a beast, a snarling monster. It would not be out of the question for Manning to have a full-blown meltdown, a 45% passing 4 interception type of game.

On the other hand, you've got something of a perfect storm in the pairing of Pittsburgh's flat-out terrible pass-protection versus New York's special pass-rush. Ben Roethlisberger could be in big trouble as well.

The winner of this game goes into week 9 looking like the class of the NFL, no matter what Tennessee does Monday night against the Colts. I could see this game going down any number of ways. There's every chance it'll be an ugly, heavywieght slugfest, especially if the 53-degree, few showers/wind forecast holds up. It's possible Pittsburgh runs away with it; I still see New York as being a vulnerable team, especially with Eli out of sync and forcing the ball to Plaxico Burress far too often. I suppose it's possible New York dominates, although I don't think it's too likely, unless the Steelers are forced to pass very often and their line doesn't hold up. And it's even possible both teams light it up and we get a high-scoring game, although windy/rainy/cool conditions in a venue that typically grounds even the most explosive offenses make that seem unlikely.

How much does that home field mean? On a neutral site, I suppose I'd give the edge right now to New York, but probably not by more than say 4 or 5 points. And Heinz field might be the only venue in football that is worth as much as 10 points, maybe more. I guess I'm going Pittsburgh.
Steelers over Giants, 23-19

Seattle @ San Francisco
The Line: San Francisco by 4.5
I have no idea what to make of this game. None. I could see it going any of a million different ways. I'm hoping, really hoping, that Mike Singletary is able to look good in his head coaching debut. I hope the defense shows up and performs. I hope he reigns in the offense a bit.

I happen to think Seattle is actually the better team, even as banged up as they are. Though their defense has been crap, it's still got some playmaking talent, and they've still got a fearsome pass-rush, at least on paper.

Shoot. I've got to root for the 49ers, as much as I can't stand that franchise and I loathe Mike Martz, because I like Mike Singletary and I want him to do well. Plus they're at home, so I've got an excuse for picking them. Well, many excuses, not the least of which is how truly terribly the Seahawks have been this season.

Also, this might be the worst primetime match-up all season. What a stinker.
49ers over Seahawks, 20-14

Indianapolis @ Tennessee
The Line: Tennessee by 4
Not only can't I pick the Colts in this one, I also can't pick them to make it close. They were just nightmarishly bad on Sunday against a Packers team that right now couldn't hold Albert Haynesworth's jock-strap.

And to be honest, that's all I have to say about this match-up.
Titans over Colts, 24-17

These picks are a bit lack-luster. I didn't want to put it off until I felt more excited about doing it, only because I might not ever feel more excited about doing it, and then I'd still have some boring, sucky picks, only like 48 hours later. I might come back and have a thing or two to say about week 8 later in the week, but these are my picks, and they aren't changing.

Go Skynards!