Week 6 Picks

Okay, I really like week 6. I love these match-ups. Most of them are easy calls for the home team, but there are a couple of really funny match-ups that should be totally one-sided annihilations, of the humorous variety. For instance, Detroit at Minnesota, or St. Louis at Washington, or the Giants at Cleveland. Those look funny on paper. It's a shame Kansas City isn't up this weekend: wouldn't it be really funny to see them on the road in Minnesota or New York?

Now the picks:

Chicago @ Atlanta
The Line: Chicago by 2.5
Honestly, I like Atlanta. I can't figure out how Chicago gets 2.5 points over Atlanta when Atlanta is 2-0 at home and coming off a road win over the team that won Chicago's division last season. Anyway, Chicago has the better defense, but I liked what I saw from Michael Turner last week, I like Roddy White, and I don't like the chances that Kyle Orton puts up consecutive strong performances on the road. Unbelievably, I'm picking Atlanta to be 4-2 after week 6. You have to like this match-up, also. Two kinda upstart teams, both playing really well at the moment, both pretty young and feisty. I'd love to watch this one.
Falcons over Bears, 20-17

Miami @ Houston
The Line: Houston by 3
Hey, this looks like another compelling match-up. Yes, I understand these are two of the AFC's doormat teams in 2008, but both have looked damn competitive in their last two games, and I'm eager to see Houston's offense and Miami's offense duke it out in front of a desperate Texans home crowd. I do think Houston probably edges Miami out in this one, only because they've been the better team in both of their last two games against pretty stiff competition, and they've got the home field. I could see this being a very high-scoring affair, as I don't think either team has a very strong defense and these teams won't be very familiar with one another. Houston wins this game if they stay in rhythm from beginning to end and utilize the athleticism of their front seven to neutralize the Wildcat offense. Miami wins if they don't turn the ball over, pressure Matt Schaub, and get another fluky Houston collapse down the stretch. Meh. I like the Texans in this one.
Texans over Dolphins, 34-28

Baltimore @ Indianapolis
The Line: Indianapolis by 4.5
If the Colts lose this game, they're done. Like everyone else, I'm still waiting for the Indy offense to explode on somebody. Baltimore's stingy defense isn't an ideal candidate, but I can't yet put to rest this expectation that the Colts are among the best, sharpest, most professional offenses in the league, and if that's the case, they should be able to handle business at home. Here's what I can guarantee: the Indy crowd will not have patience for another putrid 3 quarters of sloppy football, and if the Colts go into the fourth quarter in the hole, they'll hear it from their fans. I don't think they'll let that happen, I really don't. I don't like the Ravens in an out-of-division road game, and that, matched with my lingering hopes for the 2008 Colts, makes me think this one won't be close by halftime. I hope I'm right!
Colts over Ravens, 27-16

Detroit @ Minnesota
The Line: Minnesota by 13.5
Oh man, this one looks like a laugher. Imagine Detroit's dreadful defense trying to stop the runaway locamotive that is Adrian Peterson. If Peterson and Chester Taylor don't combine for 40 carries, at least, in this game, Brad Childress is a buffoon who should be fired immediately. There's at least a slim hope that Minnesota's two talented ball-carriers will each reach the 200 yard mark in this game, right? Please, let it be so. I see this as a total mugging, a one-sided steamrolling from beginning to end. The only hope for the Lions is that they get the ball first, score a quick touchdown, get a stop on the first possession, and score again. I don't see Brad Childress as the kind of guy that will stick to the ground game with his team down two scores at home. I really don't, especially against a team with firepower in the receiving corps like the Lions have. Will that happen? Shit no! By the fourth quarter, Minnesota fans will be able to pay a nickel to run out on the field and rack up 50 yards and a rushing touchdown. Seriously, this could be one of those very special Adrian Peterson shows, a real must-see event.
Vikings over Lions, 42-20

Oakland @ New Orleans
The Line: New Orleans by 8
How do you know what to expect from the Raiders? I mean, if Lane Kiffin were coaching this team and had the whole two-week runup to prepare for the Saints, he'd come out with Michael Bush and Darren McFadden, run between the tackles 45 times, throw a handful of playaction passes, and expect his Raiders to steamroll the Saints and dominate time of possession. With Tom Cable? As the new head coach, trying to impress the disease they call an owner, in his first game in charge? Who knows? Does he follow the Kiffin blue-print, the one that had Kiffin out of favor with Davis in the first place? Or does he show what a company man he is by going to the throw-long Raiders offense? At any rate, does it really matter? These Raiders can't possibly care much anymore, I think they all know they're playing for a lunatic, the season is going nowhere, and their performance on the field will have little if anything to do with how they're treated by the franchise. I expect a demoralized Raiders team to show up flat, go down by a lot early, and wind up losing a laugher, after which somebody in Raider land will find a way to blame Kiffin.
Saints over Raiders, 38-21

Cincinnati @ New York Jets
The Line: New York Jets by 6
Another game I don't really know how to call. I mean, I expect the Jets to win because they're at home and they're the better team, but will they perform well? Who knows. I'm sure they stink. At any rate, I guess it'll go something like this: Cincinnati won't be all the way up the way they were for Dallas or New York. They'll have some modest offensive success. Brett Favre will throw at least one ugly interception. Thomas Jones will get going a little bit in the middle quarters. Favre will hit a deep ball or two just when the Bengals start to show a little fight, and they'll go down like Glass Joe. It won't be fun to watch, it won't be beautiful or rhythmic or even ugly in that sort of charming, old school way. It'll be a depressing mess in which one fraud gets by at the expense of another.
Jets over Bengals, 23-17

Carolina @ Tampa Bay
The Line: Tampa Bay by 1.5
Hey, here's one road team I feel okay picking this week. They'll probably lose, but can I really pick the Bucs? If they win, I won't be sure why. Okay, well, nevermind, if they win, it'll be because they stuff the run, force the Panthers to dink and dunk up the field, put a few hits on Jake Delhomme, and win the turnover battle. That could definitely happen. It'll all be on their defense. And Tampa's defense has been very game so far this season. I think for now, though, I'm going to ride the Panthers for a week. I liked their demolition of the Chiefs a week before a big road divisional contest, it shows me they aren't looking ahead. I like that they have a deep-ish backfield and can afford to stick with the run even if it isn't churning out a whole lot. I like that Mushin Muhammed is a veteran guy who can find holes in a cover-2, and I like that Steve Smith is maybe the only receiver in the land who can run fast enough to get deep on a committed cover-2 look, as he's done against the Bears in the past. Mostly, I thought Tampa looked like coarse-ground dog-shit on offense against the beyond-atrocious Denver defense on Sunday, and Carolina looks like they have a pretty mean unit over there. Carolina has been a pretty decent road team these past few years, and they've got some momentum. Dammit, I'm takin' 'em.
Panthers over Bucs, 19-9

St. Louis @ Washington
The Line: Washinton by 13.5
First, I have to say this: this game scares me quite a bit. St. Louis is terrible, but as recently as last season, with essentially the exact same key players on offense, I was actually picking St. Louis to bust out and have huge offensive games. Now they don't have Scott Linehan's corpse dragging the whole ship down. The Redskins are coming off of two enormous road wins in their division against big-league opposition, now they get to go home to a grateful home crowd and play host to one of the NFL's true trainwrecks. The Rams are coming off of their bye week, they've reinstalled Marc Bulger at quarterback, and Al Saunders is playing against his old team and a defense he more or less played against every day in practice for a year. I'm not kidding, this game really scares me. I'm really, really afraid of what might happen.
But I can't go down that road. In the past two weeks, Clinton Portis has gone for about 280 yards against two of the NFL's tougher defensive fronts. Against much stiffer opposition, Jason Campbell has both protected the ball and connected on just about every big shot he's taken. And most importantly, I don't think Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell are the kinds of guys who take their eyes of the ball under any circumstances. I think they're both every bit as afraid of this game as I am.
Beyond all that, I think Al Saunders playbook is a bunch of garbage, and the only way the Rams can win this game is if they just man up and stick it to the Redskins in the trenches. They won't out-scheme the Skins in a million years, not while they're still trying to digest that Al Saunders playbook, not with a new head coach, not with a horrid defense and a butter-soft roster. Are the Rams the kind of team that goes on the road at 0-4 and just beats up a team as professional as the Redskins? I say no. I say the Redskins own time of possession in this game, to the tune of something like 38-22. I say the offense breaks all the way out and hangs 30 on the board. I say the defense actually gets to a quarterback for a change. And I say for the third week in a row, the Redskins hold an opposing Pro Bowl runningback to 60 yards or less. And I like that 13.5 point margin, dammit.
Redskins over Rams, 31-16

Jacksonville @ Denver
The Line: Denver by 3.5
Here, again, I'm taking a road team. This is more of a gut feeling, although certainly there's reason to expect the Jaguars to steamroll Denver's run defense and keep Jay Cutler on the bench. On the other hand, who is to say Cutler and Denver's prolific passing attack won't light up Jacksonville's secondary for another 30+ point showing? Frankly, I'm insulted these mother-loving Broncos have the same win-loss record as the Redskins. They're coming back to earth, you hear me? Besides, isn't Jacksonville pretty clearly the better team here? I know Denver is a difficult place to visit, but I've got to think Jacksonville takes care of business in a game of this magnitude. They dropped a vital home contest in week 5, can they afford to get dumped by a team they should so easily be able to slice up with the running game? God damn it! I'm taking the Jaguars!
Jaguars over Broncos, 28-27

Dallas @ Arizona
The Line: Dallas by 5
Look, dammit, I'm picking Arizona. Dallas has looked like shit for two weeks and they're wearing their insecurities on their sleeves. Arizona is a damn fine home team, this is a statement game, and Kurt Warner has been a big-game quarterback in his career. Believe me, the importance of this game will not be lost on the Cardinals. And beyond that, they'll have the power of me rooting desperately for them. Arizona can show the world they can play with anybody if they take care of business at home and stifle these annoying Cowboy bastards. How will they do it? To be honest, I'm not sure.
I suppose Dallas's secondary is suspect. I mean, we knew that already. And Arizona has one hell of a passing attack. Dallas hasn't been a great pass-rushing team so far this season either, so Warner might be able to avoid another collapse. Arizona is good in the red-zone and they run the ball, if not well, at least with determination. They stick with it. They can control the clock versus Dallas, and they can hit the big play. All they need to do is frustrate T.O., put a lick or two on Romo, and watch the whole Dallas tangle unravel. C'mon Cardinals, the justice-loving people of the world are depending on you to continue what Washington started 3 weeks ago: the turbulent demise of the 2008 Dallas Cowboys. Do the job!
Cardinals over Cowboys, 35-24

Philadelphia @ San Francisco
The Line: Philadelphia by 4.5
This might be the last time I pick Philly all season. They've certainly got the deck stacked in their favor. With their pass-rush, this should be a humiliating tendorizing of J.T. O'Sullivan. Philly's defense is built for exposing Mike Martz's vaunted baloney offense. San Francisco has exactly the kind of speedy, young defense that Philadelphia should be able to gash with screens and playaction from start to finish. The Eagles just need to pull their heads out of their asses and get serious about winning a football game. If they lose, not only will they be officially cooked in the NFC East - and in all likelihood, the Wild-Card race - but I will no longer be able to use them as my fall-back favorite team in the NFL. They're dangerously close to falling all the way out of my favor once and for all after their bitchy post-game performance this past weekend.
Having said all that, I will be rooting for them full strength on Sunday, and I fully expect a one-sided ass-whupping to take place. Gooooooo Eagles!
Eagles over 49ers, 31-13

Green Bay @ Seattle
The Line: Seattle by 2
This is a tough game for me to pick. I want Green Bay to win. I'm done with the Seahawks. I'm ready for the Packers to come back to life and take back the NFC North. I want the Packers in the playoffs. I'm not interested in the entire second half of the season being one long annoying conversation on Brett Favre vs. Aaron Rodgers.
On the other hand, the Seahawks are another one of these veteran teams with success not so far in their rearview mirror that they can't identify it anymore. They have a tremendous home crowd. Ultimately, if they lose this game, it will perhaps be the most significant loss of the season for any team thus far. After getting straight up gang-raped in New York on Sunday, if they can't rebound and put away a struggling, banged up Packers team at home, it won't just be the end of this season, it'll be rebuilding time in Seattle.
But how do you pick a team that just lost by 38 points? How in the hell can I pick the Seahawks, who haven't looked good at any point this season? How much better can they be at home? How much better can I expect them to be after such a loss, when said loss took place after the bye week? Or am I just trying to talk myself into picking the team I'd prefer to win the game? Shit.
Vegas says Seattle will eke out a close one, using the home crowd to just get by the Packers. Do we know who these Seahawks are yet? Are they the worst team in the NFC? Because if they drop to 1-5, they'll be in the discussion, anyway. Okay, on a neutral site, I'd expect the Packers to win by maybe 10 points. Is the Seattle home crowd worth more than 10 points? Hard to say . . . yeesh. I guess I say no, they're not.
Packers over Seahawks, 21-20

New England @ San Diego
The Line: San Diego by 6
This could be a revenge game for San Diego, who lost to the Patriots twice last season. I don't think there'll be a problem of whether or not they can get up for this game, at home against a tough competitor. You know, I do expect them to win. If they lose, it's possible I'll need them to win again before I'll pick them. As for New England, hey, this is the kind of game you're supposed to lose. If they win, I'll be ready to consider them again one of the elite teams in football. And with that, I'll go ahead and bring to a close the "Pick New England by a Landslide" era.
Chargers over Patriots, 29-23

New York Giants @ Cleveland
The Line: New York Giants by 8
There are two really funny subplots to this game: first, who in the hell is going to stop Brandon Jacobs? I think it'll be a good Sunday to have this guy on your fantasy team. Second, Derek Anderson is in deep, deep trouble, and if you're Brady Quinn, you're not ready to take over, not this week. This is not the week to be Cleveland's starting quarterback. One way or another, you're getting booed this Sunday.
As I said before, I'm hoping the Browns catch fire offensively and hang some big numbers on the Giants. I'd like the Giants to lose, I'd like them to look more human, I'd like the division race to be a tie for a bit. I suppose Cleveland has the offensive firepower to do the job. They certainly have a good offensive line. New York's secondary isn't the strength of their defense, and Cleveland has some weapons. I will be rooting for the Browns, but in a million years I wouldn't pick them to win this game, not after what New York did to another pretender offense from 2007 in week 5. Will it be that brutal? God, I hope not.
Giants over Browns, 24-13

And there you have it. I finished a piss-poor 8-6 in week 5, continuing an ugly trend from week 4 in which I pick too many road teams and pay the price. For week 6, I picked 9 home teams and 5 road teams, and 2 of my road teams were favored. I feel a bit better about this set of picks. We'll see.

Go Skynards!