Week 12 in Review, Plus Week 13 Picks

This was a pretty bizarre weekend of NFL action. Very few teams played especially well on Sunday; the Vikings, the Bills (of all teams), San Francisco, and San Diego. A few teams took absolutely brutal losses; Washington, Houston, Miami, Arizona, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh come to mind. There were remarkably few noteworthy individual performances. The playoff picture was not made much clearer in either conference.

I found myself paying special attention to quarterback play this weekend. A few of the good performances were surprises to me, most notably Alex Smith of the 49ers. I watched most of that game, and virtually all of it after it became apparent that the 4pm NFC game was going to be a full-on bloodbath, roughly 7 minutes into the first quarter. Alex Smith impressed me, running the more spread out offense in San Francisco. The most important, impressive part of his performance was his decisiveness with the ball, followed by his movement in the pocket and his look of confidence and comfort. He was sharp, he was deliberate, he moved the ball, he made very few bad or risky decisions. I think he could be the guy in San Francisco, I really do.

Jason Campbell played well for Washington. He, too, looked decisive (for the most part), and looked comfortable throwing the ball down the field, especially considering how horrific his protection continues to be. He's got to use his feet more to create space, time, and yardage when his protection breaks down, but he looks quite comfortable throwing to the young receivers on the roster, especially on the mid to deep throws. Some team other than the Redskins (probably Carolina) is going to get a free-agent steal this off-season. I can't wait to see what he can do on a team with a good offensive line, a good running game, and more aggressive playcalling.

Brett Favre was lights-out for Minnesota. Philip Rivers was lights-out for San Diego. Drew Brees was unbelievable for the Saints.

On the other side of the coin, Jay Cutler was abysmal for Chicago. Even on the throws he did make, he stared down what seemed to be his first and only option on the play. I'm not convinced that guy reads or manipulates coverages at all once the ball is snapped. It looked like the Bears were calling their passing game so deliberately, especially early in the game, to give Cutler one safe place to go with the ball and remove decision making from the process. It seems like others are starting to catch on now, but it looks like Cutler may not be cut out for winning football games. He's reckless with the ball to a fault.

Jake Delhomme was an absolute train-wreck for Carolina in their awful loss to the Jets. I'm sorry, but that guy just cannot play quarterback in the NFL anymore. They say he may have a broken finger now, and if so, that probably signals the end of his tenure as a starting quarterback for the Panthers. 14 of 34 for 130 yards and 4 picks? If it were one game, you'd let it pass, but those numbers are not uncharacteristic any longer for Delhomme. Quite simply, a veteran quarterback cannot put those kinds of numbers up more than maybe once every two years. Jason Campbell is no Tom Brady, but he hasn't put up numbers like that in any game in his entire career. The Panthers cannot win with Delhomme playing like he's played this season.

I usually don't get to watch multiple games on Sundays, but I did this Sunday, and a good number of highlights and re-caps, too. Quarterback play really stood out for one reason or another (perhaps because the Redskins are about to enter 2010 with finding a franchise quarterback at the top of their off-season to-do list), and it seemed pretty plain that there are a number of talented teams out there who just can't win with their quarterbacks playing as they are. More than ever, it highlighted to me that this has not been the case with Jason Campbell in Washington. If anything, I'd say Jason Campbell has proven, with this embarrassing disaster of an organization around him, that he's exactly the kind of quarterback you can win with in the NFL. He protects the football. He makes good decisions. He extends plays and drives with his individual efforts. He spreads the ball around and keeps the playmakers involved. He's managed to stay healthy despite taking a brutal pounding. He's consistent. He seems to improve every year in one way or another. And then there are the measurables; he's tall, he's got a cannon arm, he's reasonably athletic, and he completes a high percentage of his passes. With a shite offensive line, some of the NFL's worst skill position players, and in an organization that pretty much defines the word "dysfunctional", he's managed to put up numbers that, on paper, make him one of the NFL's top 10-12 quarterbacks.

This will be just another of those agonizing instances where a Washington sports franchise lets an obvious asset get away because the organization is too disorganized and unprofessional to know how to cultivate a winning program around him. As with the Wizards/Bullets (who, incidentally, have never ever ever built a winning organization through the draft. They came close with Webber and Howard, then blew the whole thing up for . . . umm . . . Mitch Richmond.), the Redskins have spent the past decade or more reaching for free-agents and mercenaries, building hideous, top-heavy rosters, and dodging again and again the obviously necessary process of fully re-building a winning organization through the draft. I, for one, am sick of this crap. For Jason Campbell, though, I'll be happy when he's given a chance to work for a real football team sometime in the near future. I just hope he doesn't land in Oakland.

And now, a re-cap!

Colts over Texans, 35-27
My Pick: Colts over Texans, 28-27
Hey, Texans fans, next year looks like your year!

I'll tell ya, I really thought the Texans had the Colts on Sunday. Indy's defense was awful in the first half, especially on play fakes. The game turned utterly on Matt Schaub's indefensibly atrocious pick-six to Clint Sessions. That was a truly terrible decision, at a critical point in the game, and it gave all the momentum to Indianapolis.

The funny thing about Schaub is, he does literally every single thing a quarterback can do about as well as anybody in the NFL, except the whole "knowing how to win" part. When you watch him play, his mechanics are fantastic, he executes a play-fake as well as can be done, he throws a beautiful, accurate deep ball and is precise on all his short throws, and he generally makes rock-solid decisions. He just has a habit of making that kind of throw in key situations in big games. I feel like this is often the case with promising young quarterbacks. Last season, it was Aaron Rodgers; he'd put up 315 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he'd throw a bad ball in the early fourth quarter, or make one bone-headed decision on the game's final drive with a win within grasp, and the Packers would somehow lose. Sometimes, even the really obviously solid young quarterbacks need some time to marry statistical success with actual winning. I think Schaub will get there. And it hasn't always been Schaub's fault this season with the Texans, but he had a huge hand in Sunday's loss. The other pick wasn't so bad, but he lost a fumble by not sensing pressure around him, on top of the awful pick to Sessions.

Schaub's still a tremendous young quarterback, and he can come play for my team any day.

As for Indy, their work isn't done if they're interested in trying for an undefeated season. Next up is a sizzling Tennessee team, followed by the desperate Broncos (both in Indianapolis). They then have a home date with the miserable Jets sandwiched between two road trips, at Jacksonville and at Buffalo. If they can get past these next two, however, the odds will be strongly in their favor. For my part, I can't think of anything better than Peyton Manning and the Colts basically wiping even more of the shine off of the Patriots' undefeated season.

Bengals over Browns, 16-7
My Pick: Bengals over Browns, 24-9
Yeah, that was about what I imagined. The Bengals aren't playing as well as they have this season, but they're in great shape in their division.

Vikings over Bears, 36-10
My Pick: Vikings over Bears, 34-17
Yowza. That was even worse than I expected. My God, the Bears are awful. They gained an astonishing 2 yards of offense in the second half of the game.

I just have a couple of notes about this laugher.

First, Brett Favre was great. He just was.

Second, Jay Cutler was so not. What's more, body language-wise, Jay Cutler looked like a guy who never in a million years thought his team had a chance to win. Whatever else is wrong with Cutler (and there's plenty), he's got to do something about his body language. I can't imagine his teammates have ever felt warmed, let alone inspired, by his personality. He looks like the quarterback of a losing team. Which makes sense, if you really strain your brain.

Third, on Chester Taylor's catch-and-run touchdown, Chicago's defensive back makes one of the worst chicken-shit plays you'll see in an NFL game. Taylor is gunning for the pylon, and the back has the angle on him, but instead of lowering his shoulder and trying to knock him out of bounds or stop him short, the back pulls up and jumps over him to avoid contact. Would Minnesota have scored anyway on that drive? Probably. Is that the kind of play a professional athlete (one with any pride, anyway) makes in a division game? Hell no.

Fourth, when you're down 24-7 in the third quarter, on the road, and your kick returner breaks off a 77-yard return to put your offense in business in the red-zone, NEVER EVER EVER settle for a field goal. I don't care if it's fourth and 40. What the hell does a field goal do for you? I hate to sound like that douchebag TMQ on ESPN.com, but that was a chicken shit call, and you're never going to win a game when you make that call.

Eagles over Redskins, 27-24
My Pick: Eagles over Redskins, 23-17
Man. Man man man. The Redskins really should have won this game.

Now, a few notes from this game:

1. Jason Campbell played well, but he paid the price for staring down an underneath route on Asante Samuel's side of the field. Twice. To put it plainly, you cannot stare down any route underneath Asante Samuel. He will jump it, and if he gets there, he will intercept it. Now, why Washington never went with Jason staring down an underneath route, pumping Samuel, then going over the top to whoever Samuel left, I'm not sure, but it was there, I'm sure of it.

2. Laron Landry needs to bring Jason Avant down on that one completion over the middle. You know the one. Landry lowered his shoulder and tried to blow him up, bounced right off of him, and Avant picked up another 20 yards running up the right sideline. This has become so common with Landry that, if it doesn't happen in a game, you notice.

3. Reid Doughty completely blew his coverage on Deshawn Jackson's touchdown reception. That was a three deep zone. How do I know? Because Doughty chased the underneath route right under Laron Landry's deep-middle zone. Fred Smoot stayed in the flat, Doughty was supposed to cover the deep third. He got caught cheating in on the post and let Jackson run completely free up the left sideline. If the Redskins don't give up a touchdown there, they win the game. Why? Because Philly would have mentally checked out. I know it.

4. Fred Davis is a baller. I'm almost ready to say Devin Thomas is a baller, too. Malcolm Kelly shows glimpses. Finally, though, all three of them are regular contributors. Just in time for the whole organization to be blown up this off-season.

This was an evenly played game, incredibly so. It came down to a few key screw ups by the Redskins in key moments. They've now lost 8 of 11 games, but I'll say this; if they'd lost all 8 of those games the way they've lost 3 of their last 4, I would have a completely different feeling about their 2009 season. In their last 4 games, they've looked like a professional football team, which is a dramatic departure from how they started the season. I can handle them losing, as long as they're playing well. I was not down in the dumps Sunday afternoon.

And here's the really funny thing; it' s possible this current Redskins game-day roster is my favorite Redskins roster of the past decade. Of course, the offensive line is terrible, but even there, they're starting two young Maryland guys and Derrick Dockery, who they originally drafted. Their backfield has local guy Marcus Mason and fan-favorite and all around Swiss Army Knife Rock Cartwright. Both guys run hungrier and with more explosion than Clinton Portis, and their combined salary is probably a tenth or less of his. I much prefer this receiving corps to the previous version; finally, the Redskins are actually working on developing their young receivers, and it's paying off. Plus, these receivers are so, so much more explosive than their veteran teammates. I'm not saying they're phasing out Santana Moss or Antwan Randle El, but they sure seem to be looking an awful lot at Devin Thomas, Fred Davis, and Malcolm Kelly. I'd really like to see Marko Mitchell out there some. On defense, while I acknowledge that Albert Haynesworth is a beast, I admire this defensive line more for their humble pedigree. (Will I be happy when Haynesworth returns? Of course.) The linebackers are fine. I like the secondary much better with Justin Tryon in action and DeAngelo Hall on the bench. I'd like it even better if Chris Horton were healthy. And on special teams, I really like Devin Thomas returning kicks. He may have a shite return every now and again (as he did on his final return against the Eagles, heading laterally and getting tackled from behind), but he's young, hungry, and explosive, and much more likely to break a long return than Rock ever was. Plus, this is why you have young guys and this is what you're supposed to do with them when they haven't really stepped forward on offense. It's a shame it took injuries to bring it about, but I'll take it anyway.

On the other hand, there are a number of Redskins I really like who are now on injured reserve; Horton, Chris Cooley, and especially Jeremy Jarmon. Still, if the Redskins are going to suck and lose, they might as well suck and lose with a bunch of young guys playing key positions. The good news is, while they're still losing, they're actually sucking a whole lot less with these guys on the field.

Bills over Dolphins, 31-14
My Pick: Dolphins over Bills, 24-13
Holy balls. What a joke.

Titans over Cardinals, 20-17
My Pick: Cardinals over Titans, 28-24
All bets are off with the 2009 Tennessee Titans. Arizona's defense may not be the Steel Curtain, but they're engineered specifically to play from ahead in late game scenarios; they rush the passer extremely well and their secondary is aggressive and opportunistic. Vince Young made shredded cabbage out of them.

Tennessee started 2009 0-6 with Kerry Collins under center. They've now won 5 in a row. If, 5 weeks ago, Vince Young had won this game in this fashion, we'd all say "Wow, isn't that nice", and move on. If 5 weeks later, they'd won five in a row, we'd then say "Wow, that was the start of something special right there!" But if you win 5 in a row with Vince Young, and it's the fifth win that comes like this, the reaction is more like "this team has it, whatever it is, and I'm never betting against them again." That's not really a huge revelation, just an interesting little thing I was thinking about. Their season was on the line this time. In the first scenario, nothing much mattered but personal and/or professional pride. Now, with a streak on the line and the season suddenly hanging in the balance, this was a huge, huge pressure situation. And that's what makes it so impressive, and this Titans team seem so ridiculously blessed; as if winning 4 straight after an 0-6 start with (I think it's fair to call him) a cast-off Vince Young under center wasn't impressive enough, to then go out and put together a game-winning 99-yard touchdown drive against the Super Bowl runner up, with the game winning catch made by a rookie on fourth down as time expired . . . incredible. I'm legitimately torn about picking against them in week 13, at Indianapolis. As crazy as it might sound, the 5-6 Titans seem to be significantly hotter right now than the 11-0 Indianapolis Colts, who just staged their own memorable fourth quarter comeback on the road against a division rival and are only two weeks removed from the season's first incredibly memorable comeback win. Incredible. Incredibly incredible, the way this season has turned for the Titans. To hell with the Saints; I'm riding the Titans the rest of the way.

Seahawks over Rams, 27-17
My Pick: Rams over Seahawks, 13-10
I went out on a fucking limb, okay?

Falcons over Bucs, 20-17
My Pick: Falcons over Bucs, 31-14
It's got to be encouraging, for Falcons fans, that their team can win a game without their top running back and franchise quarterback. On the other hand, when you need a collapse by your opponent and a fairly miraculous finish to get that win, against a 1-win team that's pretty clearly circling the drain, I'm not sure how good you can feel about it. I mean, Tampa Bay was one horrendously stupid (and at least somewhat suspect) penalty well away from the ball from winning this game.

And that's all I have to say about that.

Well, wait, except for this; Josh Freeman continues to look like a guy who could develop into a franchise quarterback. He made some really nice throws in this game.

Jets over Panthers, 17-6
My Pick: Panthers over Jets, 20-17
I made this point earlier, but it's worth covering a second time: the Panthers will never, ever be competitive as long as Jake Delhomme continues to play anything like he's played at any point this season. It behooves John Fox to get a young quarterback in there immediately if he has any interest in continuing to coach the Panthers beyond this season. Like Jeff Fisher in Tennessee, it will do him wonders if he can create a situation where pundits and fans are inclined to tie up all the team's recent struggles and hang them around the neck of a displaced, veteran, former quarterback. Not that Jeff Fisher's job was necessarily in any danger, but John Fox's is, and whatever gripes people had with Fisher have been utterly transferred to Kerry Collins as Vince Young leads the same team back towards the playoff race. If Fox could put together the same kind of run in Carolina with, say, Matt Moore, I feel very confident he'd be back in 2010.

As for Delhomme, I've got to think his time in the NFL is coming to a close. He may be able to hang around for another season or two as an expensive backup in Carolina, but I can't see another team taking on his absurd contract via trade, and if the Panthers were to cut him loose, I can't imagine another team wanting him as even an insurance policy. Ol' Jake was a battler for a stretch there, but if you were secretly always skeptical of his place among legitimate franchise quarterbacks, well, you weren't alone, and this season is the exact reason why. Throughout his career as a starting quarterback, he's been a terrible decision maker, especially when under pressure. For whatever reason, starting with the NFC Divisional Playoffs of the 2008 season, he's been at his absolute worst and hasn't been able to snap out of it for more than maybe a quarter or two at a time. I don't have anything against Delhomme, but I honestly think if you'd replaced him with any of a dozen different quarterbacks for his time in Carolina, that team probably would have won a Super Bowl in there and we'd think of the entire team and John Fox in a totally different light today. Ahhh, such is the nature of things, I suppose.

49ers over Jaguars, 20-3
My Pick: Jaguars over 49ers, 23-21
As I said above, Alex Smith played very, very well against the Jaguars. Jacksonville's offensive line was brutally bad, and that was pretty much the story of the game. One guy played well with decent protection, the other guy did what you'd expect behind atrocious protection.

Chargers over Chiefs, 43-14
My Pick: Chargers over Chiefs, 41-21
If you didn't think the Chargers would put up 40 and win by 20 or more, you're too much of a Chiefs homer to see clearly. I bet Todd Haley had the Chargers putting up 45 and winning by 30. I was downright generous in my pick.

Ravens over Steelers, 20-17
My Pick: Ravens over Steelers, 24-14
It would be convenient to wrap up the 2009 Steelers in the "injury" blanket and wipe this season away as lost. The reality, on the other hand, is that this team is far, far too reliant on one guy's heroics on offense and another guy's heroics on defense, and at a certain point, you're just failing as an organization if the loss of either of those guys sends a unit into a tailspin. That's exactly been the case in Pittsburgh; without Roethlisberger, their offense is pedestrian at best. Without Polamalu, their defense becomes significantly less dangerous. And really, what does it say about a team when their two most indispensable players have names with an average of 23 syllables and 475 letters? Seriously, they couldn't find two good players with normal names? There were no Smiths, no Joneses, no Browns? Go to hell, Pittsburgh.

Saints over Patriots, 38-17
My Pick: Saints over Patriots, 38-33
Ouch. I don't know who the Patriots fellated, but they had no effing business being out there. NO BUSINESS! NO! THEY HAD NO BUSINESS BEING OUT THERE!

I have to say this; I think I hate Tom Brady. I think it's possible I'd like any other player or coach or executive from that team if you removed them from that team and put them somewhere else. Brady? Nope. I revel in his embarrassment. Two of my happiest moments as a sports fan have both involved him; watching him quit on the field at the end of the Super Bowl against the Giants, and watching him throw two awful, indefensible picks against the Saints and get the mercy-pull in the fourth quarter. I hate the guy. If Bernard Pollard had dropped out of the sky in the fourth quarter and nuked Brady's other knee, I would not have been terribly upset. It's gotten to that point.

It's hard to put my finger on exactly where the hate comes from, but I suppose it's at least partly because I think he's just tremendously overrated as a player. Do I think he's a very good quarterback? Sure. Am I disgusted that he's mentioned alongside Joe Montana, or even Payton Manning, as one of the all-time greats? Yes, almost to the point of actual nausea. He's a system player. How do I know? When the Patriots do something special on offense, it's always done within the rigid rhythm of their offense. When that rhythm is even a little off, nothing special ever happens. He never plays well at all when there's pocket pressure. And when things go wrong, we all invariably say "_____ team/coach/player has figured out how to cover Wes Welker/Randy Moss". And every time someone figures out how to cover either Welker or Moss or both, things go wrong and he plays poorly.

When Payton Manning wins a game, he makes incredible throws over and over again. When Drew Brees wins a game, it's the same; big throw after big throw. Guts in the pocket. Gutsy, memorable plays. Touch and timing and accuracy, over and over again. When Tom Brady wins, he makes a five yard dump off and Welker outruns everyone, or Randy Moss outruns everyone deep and he throws it up there for him.

So there. Fuck Tom Brady. Smug douchebag.

And now, picks (ultra-quick style)!

New York Jets @ Buffalo
The Line: New York Jets by 3.5
Jets over Bills, 17-14

Denver @ Kansas City
The Line: Denver by 4.5
Not so sure about this one. Some home-dogs are going to win this Sunday, and this could be one of them. I haven't fully bought the Broncos' return to form, even after their shellacking of the Giants in week 12. Nothing would surprise me here.

Shoot, I guess I'll take the Broncos.
Broncos over Chiefs, 24-21

Oakland @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh by 14.5
Should be a pounding. I can't see the home crowd letting Pittsburgh play poorly when so much is at stake. They need every win from here on out. Plus, it's a 1pm East Coast game for a dreadful West Coast team.
Steelers over Raiders, 28-9

Houston @ Jacksonville
The Line: Even
With all these road favorites in week 13, it's hard for me to go out on a limb on a road-dog. I really want to pick Houston, though.

Fuck it, I'm taking Houston.
Texans over Jaguars, 34-24

Tennessee @ Indianapolis
The Line: Indianapolis by 6.5
This will be a fascinating game. And I have no idea how to pick it. In the past, Indy has relished the opportunity to squash a hot division opponent. The Titans aren't just a little bit hot, though, they're blistering, scalding, nuclear hell hot. And Chris Johnson ought to run absolutely wild on Indy's soft defense.

I really don't know.

Okay, here it is: I think it'll be a shoot-out, and in a shoot-out, the team that blinks first will lose. Peyton Manning will not blink at home. Vince Young is far, far more likely to blink. And the Indy crowd ought to be completely insane, with the undefeated season on the line against such a streaking division rival. Therefore, Colts win!!
Colts over Titans, 33-27

Philadelphia @ Atlanta
The Line: Philadelphia by 5.5
Now here's a home-dog I'm quite comfortable backing. Philly, sans Deshawn Jackson, in Atlanta, is more suspect than Atlanta, with an outrageous home-field advantage, with Chris Redman under center. For me, it's that simple. Philly, as the favorite, in Atlanta, without their best and most dangerous receiver? I hate that formula. Hate it.

Could Philly win? Yep. But Chris Redman is not the cupcake perhaps some people think he is. I think he'll play well enough to keep Atlanta close, and I think Jerrius Norwood will explode for at least one big play. Atlanta FTW!
Falcons over Eagles, 28-23

Detroit @ Cincinnati
The Line: Cincinnati by 13
Cincy ought to win. On the other hand, they just swept their division, they're in great shape for the post-season, and they've frankly never been here before. Who knows if this is the week they take their foot off the pedal?

Nah. Cincy's corners are great, their defense is mean and nasty, and they'll make enough big plays to win going away. Detroit is spunky, but I don't like them on the road.
Bengals over Lions, 31-13

New Orleans @ Washington
The Line: New Orleans by 9.5
Fuck New Orleans' perfect season. The Redskins are going to squeeze it in their fist and watch it ooze between their fingers like . . . ummm . . . mayonnaise, or something. Sure, the Saints are good, maybe even great. But the Redskins are like a race car in the red; they're ready to explode and wipe out whatever suckers are in the danger zone.

Redskins win!
Redskins over Saints, 27-23

Tampa Bay @ Carolina
The Line: Carolina by 6
Panthers win.
Panthers over Bucs, 20-14

St. Louis @ Chicago
The Line: Chicago by 9
Who cares?
Bears over Rams, 30-17

San Diego @ Cleveland
The Line: San Diego by 13
Long trip from San Diego to Cleveland. Long trip. Will it matter? Only in the margin of victory.
Chargers over Browns, 34-10

San Francisco @ Seattle
The Line: Even
I'm taking the Niners. They're a better team.
49ers over Seahawks, 24-17

Minnesota @ Arizona
The Line: Minnesota by 3.5
That's gotta burn the Cardinals. If they're healthy, this is a really intriguing match-up. They're not healthy, though. Kurt Warner is all woozy, and even if he plays, does anybody want to bank on post-concussion Kurt Warner? Remember how that worked out in New York? Every time he felt pressure, the ball came flying out and he went down like a sack of potatoes.

If Arizona wins, don't we have to talk about them as maybe one of the NFL's best 5 (or so) teams? Damn, I really wish they were healthy.
Vikings over Cardinals, 28-27

Dallas @ New York Giants
The Line: Dallas by 2.5
Hey, another great week 13 match-up! And this one is pretty much New York's season. They need this game. I need them to get it. I'm so, so ready for the Cowboys to collapse. I'm about as excited about that as I am about Christmas. I can't effing wait. It must start on Sunday.

And just to make sure it does happen, I'm picking the Cowboys.

FUCK YOU DALLAS!!
Cowboys over Giants, 45-3

New England @ Miami
The Line: New England by 3.5
Yeah, the Pats'll probably win.
Patriots over Dolphins, 35-20

Baltimore @ Green Bay
The Line: Green Bay by 3
Should be fun! I'll be rooting for the Packers.
Packers over Ravens, 27-17

That's it!

Go Skynards!