Week 13 Recap and Week 14 Picks

I really took it on the chin on Sunday, picks-wise. This is the time of the year when most people (myself included) are generally nailing their picks. Why? Because by now we usually have a pretty good sense of who is good and who is lousy, and we're able to predict more accurately what kind of effect certain injuries will have on certain teams, based on observations we've made during 12 weeks of football. That's what makes the following picks so incredibly puzzling:

Houston (5-6, on the road) over Jacksonville (6-5)
Atlanta (6-5, without Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and 2-3 linemen) over Philadelphia (6-4)
San Francisco (5-6, on the road) over Seattle (4-7)

Houston? Really? With so many home underdogs, I took the 5-6 Texans to win in Jacksonville against the favored 6-5 Jaguars. And how about that Atlanta pick? Atlanta's whole offense was in street clothing, and I picked them over the favored 6-4 Eagles. Why, again? Because they were at home and "Chris Redman isn't so bad"? Indefensible.

And I should have known San Francisco would come up lame in Seattle. Most teams under-perform there, and there's a reason the Niners are now 2 games below .500.

Those are moron picks. I am a moron. Never ever place any bets based on anything I predict in this blog.

And now, let's review:

Jets over Bills, 19-13
My Pick: Jets over Bills, 17-14
Meh. Close enough. I said what I had to say about this in my last post.

Broncos over Chiefs, 44-13
My Pick: Broncos over Chiefs, 24-21
Hey, how 'bout that Matt Cassell fella?

Raiders over Steelers, 27-24
My Pick: Steelers over Raiders, 28-9
Wow. The Steelers are crap. And had I known at the time that they'd subsequently go out and lose to the Browns, there's no way I would have picked them to beat the Raiders (who, by that time, had already beaten the Steelers, since it'd be week 14). So, because the Steelers lost two in a row, to Oakland and Cleveland, and because the Raiders had shown their mettle by going into Pittsburgh and beating the Steelers, I would have felt perfectly comfortable going back in time to pick the Raiders in this game. Knowing, as I would, that they'd already won the game.

Jaguars over Texans, 23-18
My Pick: Texans over Jaguars, 34-24
Hooray for awfully designed trick plays in which your quarterback pitches your season to your tailback, who then throws your season away. Awesome.

Colts over Titans, 27-17
My Pick: Colts over Titans, 33-27
It was not the shoot-out I had hoped. The Colts still have their mojo, the ability to ruthlessly stomp the spark of life out of frisky division opponents.

Eagles over Falcons, 34-7
My Pick: Falcons over Eagles, 28-23
Wow. Yeesh. Yowza. Fuckin' Falcons didn't belong on the same field. Hell, they barely belonged in the same sport.

I can still give the Falcons a pass for this, even though I pretty stupidly went off in the other direction in my picks, suggesting the Falcons were still a competitive team with all of their injuries. The fact is, the Eagles are a shitload better than Atlanta's subs. Atlanta's just trying to scrape their way to the end of the season and find a way to get healthy before 2010.

Bengals over Lions, 23-13
My Pick: Bengals over Lions, 31-13
The Bengals are going to make the playoffs, and that's a significant achievement for this franchise. I'm happy for them. At this point, it's easy to look at this kind of win and just chalk up another "w", tell yourself this is the kind of game they have to win, when they don't put up a lot of points but their defense dominates and they win what is essentially a totally forgettable, unspectacular game versus a lesser opponent.

But don't you feel like pretty much every win the Bengals have had this season has been about the same? Sooner or later, if they want to actually win in the playoffs, they're going to have to gain some confidence in their offense. See, you can and will win some playoff games with just your defense. But teams that don't have confidence in their offense tend to go into a shell in the post-season, and as soon as they get behind by a few scores, the buzzards start a-circlin'. You need confidence in your offense, you need some rhythm, headed into the playoffs. The Bengals have weapons, so there's still hope. But you have to be able to put up more than 23 against an overmatched Lions team with a dismal defense. Just sayin'.

Saints over Redskins, 33-30
My Pick: Redskins over Saints, 27-23
I should have had this motherfucker. Laron Landry and Shaun Suisham conspired to yank it away from me.

I'm a little bitter today. I like the Saints a little bit less than I did last week. It's not right that the undefeated team gets every single motherfucking break in a contest against a down-and-out underdog. The classy thing to do would have been for Drew Brees or someone to hand the ball to a Redskins defender, shake his hand, congratulate him on the upset, then get on the fucking bus and go home. Sometime after Suisham missed the field goal. "Look, we've gotten every possible break in this game, at this point, we should probably be arrested if we win this game. Let's let the little guy have it." Why can't we live in that world? It's like me playing one on one hoops against a 6 year old, only he's outplaying the shit out of me, but every time he goes up for a game-winning layup, he gets struck by lightning. I can't take that win! It's bullshit!

So yeah. Fuck the Saints. Fuck the Saints, fuck karma, and motherfuck chance. I should be celebrating a brilliant pick today, not bitterly lamenting what might have been.

Panthers over Bucs, 16-6
My Pick: Panthers over Bucs, 20-14
You see how fucked up I've been with my picks? Even when I got one right, I wasn't really all that close. I was off. I'm finishing this season poorly.

Bears over Rams, 17-9
My Pick: Bears over Rams, 30-17
See? SEE?

Hey, you know what's more pathetic than these awful, incredibly screwed Bears? LOSING to the Bears.

Chargers over Cleveland, 30-23
My Pick: Chargers over Cleveland, 34-10
That effort will not do against the Cowboys. Toughen up, Chargers. We're counting on you to flatten the 'Boys and send them a little farther down the drain.

Seahawks over 49ers, 20-17
My Pick: 49ers over Seahawks, 24-17
Booooooooooooooooooooo.

Cardinals over Vikings, 30-17
My Pick: Vikings over Cardinals, 28-27
Kurt Warner is, and always has been, a much better quarterback than Brett Favre. Numbers support this. Results support this. By almost any measure other than durability, Kurt Warner is superior to Brett Favre. But most importantly, Kurt Warner went out and pissed all over an elite Vikings defense Monday night in a huge conference game, whereas the real Brett Favre stood up and dropped a deuce all over his own team.

So there. I know it may sound weird, but Kurt Warner is better than Brett Favre. Is and always has been.

Now, some seriously quick week 14 picks (obviously I missed Thursday night's game):

Denver @ Indianapolis
The Line: Indianapolis by 6.5
Keep it up, Colts!
Colts over Broncos, 24-20

Cincinnati @ Minnesota
The Line: Minnesota by 6
Should be a good game. I'm not sure Cincy has enough on offense to win at Minnesota, though.
Vikings over Bengals, 21-16

New York Jets @ Tampa Bay
The Line: New York Jets by 3.5
Our first road favorite, and it's the crummy Jets on the road with Kellen Clemens at quarterback.

Oh man, I'm tempted to pick the Bucs.

Ahhhhhhhh! Can't do it.
Jets over Bucs, 20-17

Buffalo @ Kansas City
The Line: Buffalo by 2.5
Another road favorite, and it's the crummy Bills on the road with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. What is the world coming to?

I really don't know what to do with this game.

Uhhhhh . . . Bills win!
Bills over Chiefs, 17-13

Green By @ Chicago
The Line: Green Bay by 4
Isn't it about time for another Green Bay disappointment? I think it is. Just when they seem to have figured it all out, Gay Cutler and the Bores go out and steal one away from them.

Yep. Sounds about right.
Bears over Packers, 27-23

New Orleans @ Atlanta
The Line: New Orleans by 10
Saints win.
Saints over Falcons, 31-14

Detroit @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 14
Yep. Not too confident in a disgruntled Daunte Culpepper against a desperate Ravens team in the rain in Baltimore.
Ravens over Lions, 23-10

Miami @ Jacksonville
The Line: Jacksonville by 2
It's impossible to predict this game. Anything could happen.
Jaguars over Dolphins, 43-41

Carolina @ New England
The Line: New England by 13
Yep. Matt Moore, meet the scum-of-the-earth schoolyard bully and all his loser friends.
Patriots over Panthers, 77-3

Seattle @ Houston
The Line: Houston by 7
Whatever.
Texans over Seahawks, 27-20

St. Louis @ Tennessee
The Line: Tennessee by 13
I say again: whatever.
Titans over Rams, 24-13

Washington @ Oakland
The Line: Washington by 2
Washington, favored on the road? This season? No. No no no. Terrible. Hate to do it, but Oakland now has to win.
Raiders over Redskins, 24-20

San Diego @ Dallas
The Line: Dallas by 3.5
And just to make sure the Cowboys find a way (to lose), I'm picking them in a landslide. And, AND, I'm rooting for them. GOOOOOOOOOOO COWBOYS!!
Cowboys over Chargers, 44-9

Philadelphia @ New York Giants
The Line: Philadelphia by 1
Can't do it. Can't pick the Eagles on the road at New York. Just can't.
Giants over Eagles, 28-27

Arizona @ San Francisco
The Line: Arizona by 3.5
I'm ready to believe in the Cardinals. They need to win this game and look good doing it.
Cardinals over 49ers, 27-21

That's it! With 39 minutes to spare!

Go Skynards!