And Then There Was Week 8

Maybe I'm crazy, but I think this is one of the tougher weeks to call, and maybe not the time to try to reintegrate football knowledge into my picks. There are a lot of even matchups between relatively weak teams this weekend, a few matchups where the favorite is the road team, and a game or two between evenly matched good teams. These games are pretty tough to call, in one man's opinion, and I may be going out on a limb with a number of them.

Indianapolis @ Carolina

Maybe this is an easy game to call, but I'm having something of a crisis of confidence right now. I'm finding it extremely difficult to have faith in any NFL team to take care of business, even the excellent Indianapolis Colts, who have been the second most reliable team in football through 7 weeks. Carolina is one of those ugly teams that has a way of making everyone else play ugly football, and though Indianapolis just dispatched another version of that same model in Jacksonville, John Fox isn't nearly the asshole Jack Del Rio is, and he's had two weeks to prepare. Because Indianapolis is healthy, professional, and really rolling right now, I'll stick with 'em, but don't be surprised if this one is closer than many expect.
Colts over Panthers, 28-20 I keep putting Indianapolis in these close games, and they keep mopping the floor with their opponents. It's a formula that works for me.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

I have a feeling in my gut that tells me the Bengals are going to win this game. They're a desperate bunch right now, needing every home game left to have a shot at the playoffs. The Steelers, on the other hand, just crapped the bed in their disappointing loss to the Broncos in Denver, and now they're looking to get back on track and re-establish themselves as a top team in the AFC. These AFC North games have a way of always being close, no matter if the teams combine to score 100 points or 17. I can't get past the way Pittsburgh seemed too smart-ass and cute for their own good against the Broncos, passing far too often against a team with a laughably bad run defense. It was the same amateur crap you saw from Jacksonville against Indy, and both teams paid the price in the loss column. If Pittsburgh gets back to their bread and butter, which is their formerly first-ranked running game, limits turnovers and doesn't have a defensive meltdown, they ought to win. Shit. I really don't know.
Steelers over Bengals, 31-24 I hate the way this weekend is shaping up already.

Detroit @ Chicago

This is another really tough game to call. Detroit won the first go 'round, but they needed 34 fourth quarter points to pull it off, and this one's in Chicago. The Bears have a little momentum going right now, whereas the Lions haven't had much explosiveness in their offense since they were dismantled by the Redskins 3 weeks ago. This would be a major setback for the Bears and a minor setback for the Lions, plus I think Lovie Smith is a great head coach. Fuck it, I'm taking da Bears.
Bears over Lions, 24-17

Oakland @ Tennessee

On paper, this is an easier game to call. Oakland is supposed to be crap, plus they just lost at home to the goddamn Chiefs. Tennessee, on the other hand, just pulled out a road victory in Houston with their backup quarterback. Tennessee is supposed to be a playoff contender, Oakland is supposed to be a doormat. Jeff Fisher is a great head coach that almost won a Super Bowl, whereas Lane Kiffin still needs his mom to drive him to the stadium. Vince Young is expected to play, and Oakland has shown a weakness against the running game, which is the strength of the Titans. I feel better about this pick than the others, but not great, and I think a lot of that has to do with my uncertainty over the production of Vince Young. He's been an erratic passer this season, and Oakland has been great at causing turnovers and capitalizing.
Titans over Raiders, 20-10

Cleveland @ St. Louis

Again, this looks like an easy game to call. The Browns can score quickly and easily, and the Rams can't stop anybody. The Browns have also had two weeks to prepare and get healthy, whereas the Rams just got anal-ated by the Sea-jacks and aren't healthy at any position on offense. There's a rumor that Stephen Jackson might play, which might change the look of this game, and the Rams are at home. I have to think the Browns will be able to score pretty easily, putting the pressure on the Rams to answer, and with their offensive line, I'm not sure they're up to it. The Rams are almost certainly looking at this game as one of few on their schedule they have a real shot of winning, but I just don't see it happening.
Browns over Rams, 34-20 Notice that I've picked 3 of 5 road teams to this point. That's bad, bad news.

Philadelphia @ Minnesota

Jesus, I'm so uncertain about these games, I'm actually considering throwing my hands up. Look, I know the Eagles are supposed to be an easy team to pick against, just look at their record! But I've spent that last five years looking up at them from the bottom of the NFC East, and let me tell you, it's hard to switch over and think of a team that still has Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Brian Dawkins, Javon Kearse, and Andy Reid as an easy team to pick against, especially going against a Vikings team that may be starting Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback with a broken finger. Brad Childress spent a lot of time working in Philadelphia for Andy Reid, which means each of them probably knows what to expect from from the other, which makes this especially tough for me. I like the Adrian Peterson/Chester Taylor factor, and I like the fact that Minnesota is at home. This could very well be Andy Reid's final game as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles. You heard it here first.
Vikings over Eagles, 24-21 Then it comes time to pick the score, and all of a sudden I'm quite sure the Eagles will win.

New York Giants @ London

That's right, the Giants are playing against London, because the only thing that keeps them from winning this game is something going wrong in their hotel or en route to the game.
Giants over Dolphins, 35-9

Buffalo @ New York Jets

The Jets are in so much trouble right now, and the Bills are a hell of a lot more interesting and professional. Neither team sports a dominant defense, or even much of a defense at all, and neither team has much of an offense. The Jets have superior receivers and a more established backfield, though they don't seem to know how to use either. The Bills nearly beat the Cowboys at home and then DID beat the Ravens at home, but now they're on the road, albeit in the same state. Screw it.
Bills over Jets, 21-20 Falling back on my old bad habits of making as many games close as possible.

Houston @ San Diego

This has been a tough week for the Chargers, having to evacuate San Diego and practice in Arizona because of wild-fires. These poor bastards have enough to worry about without having to think about winning a football game, their houses are burning down and their friends and family are living in Qualcomm Stadium. Still, they're a much more talented team and they've had two weeks to prepare. If you've lived through a Norv Turner stint with your home team, you know things like "home field advantage" and "bye weeks" don't generally mean squat, but I'd like to think the Chargers are different. Plus, the Texans are really really banged up, and it looks like Andre Johnson may not play at all this season.
Chargers over Texans, 31-17

Jacksonville @ Tampa Bay

I'm so sick of picking the goddamn Jaguars. Jon Gruden is a one-thousand times better head coach than Jack Del Rio, but beyond that, these teams are pretty well matched. Jacksonville has the better defense. Jacksonville has the superior running game. Tampa has the superior receivers, and they have a healthy quarterback. Quarterbacks, by the by, are a push in my opinion. Joey Galloway is about as likely to produce a big play as Maurice Jones-Drew. Shit. Jacksonville has the 6th best kickoff return average in the NFL, Tampa is 12th. Tampa is 14th in punt return average, Jacksonville is 27th. Neither team has scored a special teams touchdown. Tampa is at home coming off a tough loss, Jacksonville is on the road coming off a bed-crapping blowout. They play in the same state, so how much can home field really mean? Jesus. Jesus jesus jesus. Oh wait, it seems David Garrard will not play in this one. Game over.
Bucs over Jaguars, 20-10 The Bucs should be looking at good field position and a few turnovers to help their offense.

Washington @ New England

Do I think Washington has a chance of winning this game? Maybe. Maybe I do. Do I think they will? No, not at all. The best I can hope for is that they play the Patriots closer than anybody else to this point, that I can live with. The fact that the Patriots are 19 point favorites doesn't bode well.
Patriots over Redskins, 31-21 I'll be overjoyed if they get this close.

New Orleans @ San Francisco

I don't have a reason for picking the 49ers in this one. I think Frank Gore is a lot better back than Reggie Bush. Mike Nolan has a few more years under his belt as a head coach than Sean Payton. The 49ers just might have a better defense than the Saints. Mostly, they're at home, and neither team really gets my blood going.
49ers over Saints, 20-16

Green Bay @ Denver

Somehow, Denver gets their second primetime game in a row. So much for flexible scheduling. They took down a much more balanced and talented team Sunday night in the Steelers, and like the Packers, the Steelers were off a bye. Champ Bailey and Dre Bly are both gimpy heading into this game. The strength of the Packers offense is passing the ball, the strength of Denver's defense is defending the pass. This is actually quite a test for Green Bay. I like Mike McCarthy as a head coach and Brett Favre as a quarterback, and I trust them to get the job done on the bye week. I still think the Broncos don't have much consistency on offense.
Packers over Broncos, 23-17

I don't feel very good at all about these picks. I ended up taking seven home teams and six road teams, a recipe for disaster. I'm ashamed to say the two picks I'm the most confident in are the ones that hurt the Skins the most: their game at New England and the Giants game vs. Miami.

Ok, I'm going to allow myself to say this: the Redskins are the best defense the Patriots have faced this season, and probably the second best offense. Joe Gibbs is, by any measure, the best head coach they've faced. The Skins have shut down a number of top passing offenses already this year. The Patriots gave up 28 points to the Dolphins last week. I'm not saying the Redskins are going to win this game, no way. But I do think that if they come out with any sort of offensive rhythm and their defense plays the way they've been playing, plus a little more pocket pressure, they could keep it respectable. That's all I'm saying.

Go Skynards.