Fuck It.

As a lifelong Redskins fan, I'm having a real hard time tossing them under a bus in any game during a season in which they have a real shot of making some noise in the postseason. You see, it's been 10 years or so since we Skins fans took our team's chances of playing a meaningful late-season game seriously. The 2007 Redskins have a lot to be excited about, and I'm feeling increasingly guilty about giving them no chance in this Sunday's matchup. In all likelihood, someone's gonna beat the Patriots this season. The Pats aren't beating people because, like the Yankees or Red Sox, they've compiled a murderers row of players by outspending everyone else. In the salary cap era of football, we presume that all teams have roughly the same talent level within a certain narrow range, and the difference between a great team and a poor team could be injuries, chemistry, coaching, leadership, scheme, or even schedule, but is almost never talent level. The basic idea here is this: Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and probably Benjamin Watson are all going to make the Pro-Bowl in 2007, but it should not be because they're a whole lot faster or stronger or taller or whatever than their opponents. Randy Moss is fast; Santana Moss is fast. Wes Welker is shifty; Antwan Randle El is shifty. Benjamin Watson is a good mix of size, receiving skills, and instincts, as is Chris Cooley, his Skins counterpart. Tom Brady gets a big nod over Jason Campbell, but not because he's taller (he isn't), has a better arm (he certainly does not), runs faster (not on your life), or is even more accurate, though that's certainly debatable. Brady is a sharp player who understands his system, keeps his head about him, and trusts his playmakers. Jason Campbell has a long way to go, but he's certainly a quality NFL quarterback. The two running games are obviously a push, with both teams featuring a two-headed system and neither team getting many big plays on the ground. In short, in my opinion, the two major differences between these offenses are scheme and the health of the offensive line. There's not much to do about that offensive line, but as far as scheme goes, the Redskins didn't hire Al Saunders and make him the highest paid offensive coordinator in the NFL for nothing: this guy knows how to dial it up. Joe Gibbs didn't win three Super Bowls with his good looks: he knows a thing or two about putting points on the board (read: The Fun Bunch, The Hogs, The Posse, etc.). The Patriots obviously have a superior offense, but my point is, the Redskins offense is nothing to spit at. It certainly isn't the worst group the Patriots have faced. If the Dolphins can put points up with their backup quarterback, no-name receiving corps, and a big injury to their top player, certainly the Redskins ought to be able to as well.

Defensively, I might be a crazy man, but I think the Redskins are the superior team. Without question, the Patriots are a strong defense. They've also been helped a lot by the fact that their offense has forced virtually every opponent to play from behind and become one dimensional, and lest we forget, the Pats have given up 20 or more offensive points to their last two opponents, including the sad-sack Miami Dolphins. The Pats have faced a number of strong offenses, including the 2nd ranked Cowboys, the 4th ranked Bengals, the 7th ranked Browns, and the 13th ranked Chargers, but they've also picked on the 31st ranked Bills, the 29th ranked Jets, and the 15th ranked but truly terrible Dolphins (who put 28 points on the board behind Cleo Lemon). They're only giving up 17 points per game, good for 10th in the NFL. They Pats have a very good defense, but one would hardly describe them as dominant. The Redskins, on the other hand, have the NFL's 5th ranked defense in terms of yards, and 3rd ranked defense in terms of points per game, only giving up about 14.5 a game. The Redskins have faced a number of strong offenses this season, including the 8th ranked Eagles, 9th ranked Giants, the 11th ranked Packers, the 12th ranked Cardinals, and the 16th ranked Detroit Lions, but have also feasted on the sad-sack Dolphins, who played with Trent Green at quarterback in week 1 and only managed 13 points. The Redskins have the 5th ranked rushing defense and the 8th ranked passing defense in the NFL, and have allowed only 5 passing touchdowns through six games. The Patriots have the 9th ranked rushing defense and the 4th ranked passing defense, and have allowed 9 passing touchdowns on the year. Both teams are adept at forcing turnovers, and the Patriots have, statistically, the superior pass-rush. Again, I submit that when you're playing with a huge lead and your opponent is forced to play a pass-heavy offense, you're going to have a lot of sack opportunities. As I stated above, I think the Redskins have the superior defense in this game, and are almost certainly the best defense the Patriots have faced this season.

Then there's this: there's a hell of a lot of character on this Redskins team. Guys like London Fletcher-Baker, Marcus Washington, Fred Smoot, and Shawn Springs aren't the sad bunch of career losers of past Redskins defenses, and I just don't see these guys accepting a pounding. The benefit of drafting guys like Laron Landry, Sean Taylor, and Carlos Rogers, beyond their supreme athletic gifts, is that when you get players from programs like LSU, Miami, and Auburn, you're getting guys who are used to winning, who expect to win, who believe they can run and hit with anybody and won't back down. When you've got coaches like Al Saunders and Gregg Williams, you've got coaches who can game plan with the best coaches out there, are paid like it, know it, and have the faith of their players. Joe Gibbs is the other coach in the NFL with three Super Bowl rings and the only Hall of Famer Bill Belichick will have to worry about at any point this season.

I'm not predicting a Redskins win. I'm hoping to see the Redskins come out with a big chip on their shoulder, same as every team the Patriots have faced this season. I'm hoping they decide to punch the Patriots offense right in the mouth from the opening play, muscle them around, play with attitude, fly to the ball, and show some pride. That's what they've done each week so far, and the truth is, it isn't something the Patriots have had to deal with yet. I don't think they can afford to sit back and let Tom Brady chill in the pocket, though it's worked against lesser foes, if for no other reason than if you give Wes Welker and Randy Moss enough time, they're bound to outrun somebody, and even if they don't there's always Benjamin Watson or Dante Stallworth to find a hole. That means the Skins will have to blitz some, and I hope when they do it, they have the balls to overload parts of the offensive line and bring everybody. Gregg Williams has a way of evenly spacing his pass rush so it looks like an organized offensive group can easily pick them off one by one. I'd like to see a few overload blitzes: no amount of organization is going to enable your right tackle and right guard to block 5 pass rushers, and they simply have to have to HAVE to get some pressure on Brady.
I'm hoping that, offensively, the Redskins open it up early and take a few shots down the field. Keep the reverses and half-back passes in the playbook and take a few good old fashioned shots deep down the field, preferrably right up the seam. The Patriots don't have fast safeties, whereas the Redskins have two of the fastest receivers in the NFL. If the Redskins can force the Patriots defense to back up a little and respect the deep ball, the Skins will have the option of playing a balanced offense, something no other team has had the luxury of doing against New England this season. I also hope they go to roll-out passes; with their offensive line, they can't expect to form much of a consistent pocket. Jason Campbell is a good runner and a sound decision maker, and I think roll-out plays would be a great way to neutralize the Patriots pass rush and blitz schemes.
Most importantly, the Redskins can't play scared, and I'm not even talking about the guys in helmets. The coaches need to take the diapers off, so to speak, and go for the kill. The Patriots have shown, above all else, that they can and will score big-time points in bunches. They've also shown a nasty, evil killer streak, putting up touchdowns at the tail end of garbage time in huge blowout wins. If the Redskins want to hang with the Patriots, they need the same attitude. They can't go out there to steal a win, they've got to go out there to beat up and humiliate the Patriots, to exploit every opportunity and not take their feet of the gas until both teams are already in the locker room after the end of the game.

I'm leaving work early on Sunday so I can watch this game, with my own two eyes, from beginning to end. That might be a bad, bad sign for the Skynards. I have a way of causing the Redskins to play poorly just by watching, but as with anything associated with this game, I'm doing a lot of hoping that a lot of things will go differently this Sunday.