They Make it Easy to be Ball-less.

I had a feeling I was going to be home-team happy in Week 7 after a very shaky 7-6 outing on Sunday. Then I took a long, hard look at the Week 7 match-ups, and you know what? Who wouldn't be home-team happy? There are a lot of games in Week 7 that would be too close to call on neutral soil, you've gotta go with the home team. Without further ado . . .

Baltimore @ Buffalo

I have warm feelings for the Buffalo Bills, I might be the only guy outside of Buffalo that doesn't think they are as bad as their record. They've been hit hard by injuries and have a team full of new starters. I know they played Dallas about as well as they possibly could, and I think this Bills team has some character. I'll tell you this much, they're not the train wreck some other 1-win teams in the NFL are, and Baltimore isn't exactly taking anyone's breath away. Is this a tough game to call on neutral soil? Probably not, but it's in Buffalo, and I think Baltimore is totally bogus.
Bills over Ravens, 17-12 The Ravens can't get in the end-zone, and this looks to me like a trap game for Baltimore, right before the bye week and then in Pittsburgh in week 9.

San Francisco @ New York Giants

I'd be thrilled if San Francisco won this game, and not just because I hate the idea of the Giants putting any more distance between themselves and the Redskins and I need a big game from Frank Gore. The Giants are the more talented team and they've got a lot of momentum going right now, having won 4 in a row. The 49ers look for all the world like a piece of shit offense and a piece of shit defense. The only hope they have comes from the fact that they had two weeks to prepare and get healthy, and that the Giants are still a fragile group with a volatile coach and locker room. Go 49ers!
Giants over 49ers, 31-17 Wait, you didn't think I was actually going to pick the niners, did you?

New England @ Miami

Yeah right.
Patriots over Dolphins 31-6 The Patriots have nothing to prove by running it up in this one.
Update 10/17: The Dolphins traded Chris Chambers to the Chargers for a second round pick. That's a great deal for the Dolphins, who ought to be thinking long-term right about now. Chambers is a good receiver, but this team won't be contending again until he's an old man, and a second round pick is GREAT value.

Tennessee @ Houston

Ooooh, I think this is a tough one. Houston might have Andre Johnson back for this game, that'd be huge for them. Tennessee needs a healthy and productive Vince Young to have a realistic shot at accomplishing much this season, and both teams REALLY need this game. Because the Titans have been tough in every game and the Texans seem to be nose-diving, I'm forced to take the road team. Though I think Gary Kubiak is a great coach, I think Jeff Fisher is an even better coach.
Titans over Texans, 24-21

Tampa Bay @ Detroit

The Bucs made a brilliant trade for Michael Bennett. I don't know what to say about the Chiefs making that deal, except there's no way I'd part with Michael Bennett after the season LJ has had so far and the staggering amount of work he's had in the past 2+ seasons. But Tampa Bay barely took a home win against a seriously depleted Tennessee team on Sunday, and now they're headed into Detroit to take on a much more explosive group coming off of a bye. I'd take Tampa anywhere else, but in Detroit I'm going with the Lions.
Lions over Bucs, 28-17 And Garcia will throw his first pick. The Lions are near the top of the NFL in takeaways.
Update 10/17: Ok, the Chiefs got two draft picks for Michael Bennett, and I've had a complete reverse of opinion on this. The Chiefs fleeced the Bucs. Also, why hasn't Michael Bennett turned up in Denver yet? He's tailor-made for Shanahan's one-cut system.

Atlanta @ New Orleans

I don't think much of either team in this matchup, but New Orleans had a pulse in their win over the Seahawks, whereas the Falcons looked like dead meat in their destruction at the hands of the Giants at home on Sunday. I don't think I can pick Atlanta under any circumstances right now. I might not pick them at home against the Rams.
Saints over Falcons, 16-13

Arizona @ Washington

Do I trust the Redskins to give a predictable effort at home? Hell no. But Arizona is in big big trouble at the quarterback position, and the Redskins seem to have come together as a defensive unit. The formula here ought to be real simple: if the Redskins can put two touchdowns on the board and PLAY WELL IN THE SECOND HALF, they should easily win at home.
Redskins over Cardinals, 21-10

Kansas City @ Oakland

Now here's a matchup between lowly AFC teams that I can actually give a damn about. See, I like the Raiders and Lane Kiffin, and I can't stand the Chiefs and Herm Edwards. I also think the Raiders are a tougher, smarter, more resilient group, and I don't think the importance of getting this home win in their division in a game that gives them a chance to assert themselves as better than someone else in their awful division will be lost on them. Both teams will run, both teams will struggle to pass, but the Raiders are off a bye week and have a good head coach.
Raiders over Chiefs, 10-6

New York Jets @ Cincinnati

This might be the last time I pick the Bengals all year. If they can't get healthy against a really awful Jets team at home, they might not win another game all year. I mean it. The only problem is, I think the Bengals players are looking at this game as a get healthy game, and that scares me. This team looks right past every opponent, as they did against the Chiefs on Sunday. You know what? If this game were being played anywhere else in the world, even another town in Ohio, I'd pick the Jets.
Bengals over Jets, 31-24 Here's hoping.

Minnesota @ Dallas

Would it shock me if Minnesota came out and won this game? No way, not one bit. They're going to pound the ball at a very suspect Dallas defense. Tarvaris Jackson might not see a third and long all game. Minnesota has a tough defense, 31 points from the Bears notwithstanding. Dallas needs to rebound and heal their bruised ego after a rough pounding at home from the Patriots, and there's enough pride and there are enough professionals on the Cowboys that I expect they won't let this one slip. Also, Marion Barber is an incredible football player, a ferocious tough-guy who plays with enough balls and guts for everyone on the Dallas roster.
Cowboys over Vikings, 24-14

Chicago @ Philadelphia

This is a scary game for the Eagles, who looked pretty weak against the pitiful Jets and have just the right combination of weaknesses for a hungry and desperate Bears team to feast on. Lovie Smith is a great, great football coach, whereas Andy Reid is a hybernating football coach. The Eagles have much more talent and explosiveness, but Devin Hester is terrifying and the Bears have a lot more guts and attitude than the Eagles, who look like they'd much rather be doing anything other than playing football on Sundays. Where has the joy gone in Philadelphia? Still, it's in Philly, and I think the teams are evenly matched on paper.
Eagles over Bears, 27-24

St. Louis @ Seattle

Just to be perfectly clear, I don't like the Seahawks, nor do I think they are a quality football team. Against just about any other opponent, I'd be picking against them. Seattle was the "get healthy" opponent for New Orleans, why couldn't the Rams have the same sort of outing, against a division foe? Here's why: I think Mike Holmgren will call a very straight forward game and keep everything very close to his chest in this one. After the debacle on Sunday night, the Seahawks need to get back to basics, and Holmgren is too good a coach to miss that. St. Louis is a dreadful team, and Seattle can use this home game to reestablish themselves as the team to beat in the NFC West.
Seahawks over Rams 35-10 It'll be disappointing for Seattle fans it it isn't this kind of blowout.

Pittsburgh @ Denver

I don't know, I don't think this one is as obvious as it might look. At some point, I expect the Broncos to get up off the mat. Their defense is atrocious; they still have Champ Bailey, Dre Bly, D. J. Williams, and John Lynch over there. They haven't been able to score consistently; they've also been without their top receiver for most of the season, and sooner or later Jay Cutler will string together a couple of nice games. They still have one of the top rushing offenses in the NFL, and they still have one of the strongest home-field advantages in the NFL, and damn it, despite what I said last week, Mike Shanahan is still a capable NFL coach with a terrific career record. Still . . .
Steelers over Broncos, 21-17 The Steelers have a hell of a defense, and Willie Parker and Najeh Davenport can go go go.

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Now here's an interesting Monday nighter. I have mixed feelings about this game and a lot to say about it. Indianapolis is a consistent, tough, smart, professional team with great leadership and a champion's mentality. Jacksonville looks to me like an inconsistent, fragile, plucky young group with a lot to prove and not a lot of history to lean on. Jacksonville has yet to have to overcome turnovers, but sooner or later David Gerrard is gonna throw a pick or two. The Jaguars defense hasn't seen anything like the Colts offense this year, but they've seen 'em in the past and shouldn't be caught with their pants down. Wow, this is a tough one. If the Colts had 'em at home, it'd be a no-brainer for me, but they're traveling to Jacksonville. On the other hand, I don't know that that means much; I've been to Jacksonville, I might have been the only person there, and I don't think the Jags are the kind of team you can depend on to make much of a home-field boost. I just don't think you can pick against the Colts until they lose, how about that?
Colts over Jaguars, 21-20 I have a hard time picturing the Jags getting blown out in this one, though that's exactly what I'll be rooting for.

One more NFL note: I'm getting a little frustrated at reading NFL-knowers talk about an undefeated season being unrealistic for the Patriots, or any other truly great team in the future. I've also had to read more than enough about how Tom Brady won't break the touchdown record, though he's on pace to toss 56 scores. The logic behind these arguments is based on the thought that the Patriots won't be playing for anything in weeks 15-17, which is totally bogus and ridiculous. May I remind everyone that the Colts are undefeated and the Steelers are a one loss team? Though both teams play in tougher divisions, by a wide margin, than the Patriots, it's perfectly reasonable to think either of these teams could pull off a 1 or 2 loss season, which would mean that homefield advantage in the AFC playoffs would be in doubt all the way up to the final week. The Colts are the defending Super Bowl champion and have looked several degrees better than every team that doesn't play in Foxboro. Let's say the Colts lose their matchup with the Patriots and then resume beating every team they're expected to beat, which is to say, everyone left on their schedule. The Patriots won't have secured home-field throughout until they've secured a one-loss or undefeated regular season, and for everyone that watched the Colts run to the Super Bowl in 2006 and has seen them play this season, you know even the Pats won't be happy to face them in Indianapolis in the postseason. To sum up the stupidity of the "undefeated team is unrealistic argument", all you need is a second great team in the same conference to push the undefeated-hopeful through the final week. As far as Tom Brady goes, do you see this team slowing down one bit? Not just for the season, but even in the fourth quarter of blow-out victories? There's no reason to expect he'll tail off to any degree that would keep him from at least threatening the record, and if the Patriots are indeed forced to play through the end of the regular season, as I expect they will, Brady will be lighting it up the whole way, which is great news for my fantasy team. In other fantasy news, Washington's last ranked defense from 2006 has been replaced by a third ranked defense in 2007. Booyah.

Also, they play the Colts in Indianapolis in their Nov. 4 matchup, and if they should lose, we might have to look at the Colts as a realistic undefeated-hopeful. New England has a more favorable schedule in weeks 15-17, with games against woeful teams in their division and then the Giants in a Sunday nighter. The Colts finish up against Tennessee and Houston, and those could very well be meaningful games for the Texans and Titans. Also, ALSO, why couldn't the Patriots beat the Giants with backups on the field? With an undefeated season on the line, I'd expect a hell of an effort against a team that will also likely know the outcome of it's season heading into the game.

Hopefully another solid showing with the picks in Week 7. I think this week was a bit easier to call than some other weeks. It's definitely the kind of week where, if I get a bunch of games wrong, I can throw my hands up and say "who knew?"

Go Skynards.