Guts vs. Brain

When I look at the list of match-ups for week 15, I find myself having a strange conflict between what I think should happen and then what my gut tells me. For instance: I'll be going on faith in the Cowboys superiority when I pick them on the road in Carolina, but I have a hunch they're looking at an upset. Same goes for New Orleans hosting the Eagles, Seattle hosting Baltimore, and San Diego hosting the Broncos. I'll probably go with the home team, the team with the better record, but in each case, I have a certain feeling. As I go through my picks, the challenge will be sticking with my brain and ignoring those hunches. But is that fun? I don't know . . .

Pittsburgh @ St. Louis

I don't think I'll have any such problems with this game. Pittsburgh has rebounded well from their losses this year, and I don't see St. Louis as the kind of team that can usher in the first losing streak of the season for the Steelers. I doubt it'll be a bloodbath, but I don't see it being real close, either.
Steelers over Rams, 27-13

Dallas @ Carolina

Here's what I know: the Cowboys have yet to lose on the road this season, and the Panthers are one of the NFL's worst home teams. Carolina will probably have Matt Moore at quarterback again, they're out of the hunt, and they stink. Dallas, on the other hand, is pretty healthy (aside from Tony Romo's thumb), has a chance to wrap up home-field throughout the NFC playoffs, and apart from that horrible home loss on Sunday, they've looked pretty great all year. But . . . BUT, they did look really awful on Sunday, whereas Carolina just got their first home win, and over an NFC playoff team, too. I don't know, this could be an upset special. Shoot. Ah, stick with the better team.
Cowboys over Panthers, 31-17

Kansas City @ Detroit

I won't be shocked either way, but the Lions are a hell of a lot more talented, plus Herm Edwards did just tell Kansas City fans to "get over it" regarding the team's seven straight losses. Hey, dickwad, you do know you're being paid to win football games, right? Like, that's your whole job, right there. Maybe "get over it" isn't the attitude you want to have about the fact that your team hasn't won in almost two months.
Lions over Chiefs, 28-20

Houston @ Indianapolis

You know what? I don't have a lot of energy right now. Sometimes you just pick the better team and walk away.
Colts over Texans, 24-21

Oakland @ Jacksonville

Jacksonville is hot, the Raiders are not.
Jaguars over Raiders, 35-7

Green Bay @ Chicago

I don't see Kyle Orton leading the Bears to a victory, even at home. Green Bay is playing for home-field throughout, they might get it!
Packers over Bears, 20-10

New York Giants @ Buffalo

Only one way to pick this game. The Giants are in full-blown collapse mode, I swear. If the Bills don't win, it'll be a choke job on their part. Look for an ugly offensive game from the Giants, who'll have one less target for Eli Manning to throw to now that Shockey is done. I can't wait until the Giants have to beat the 15-0 Patriots in the final week to get into the playoffs.
Bills over Giants, 27-18

Philadelphia @ New Orleans

I'm not going out on a limb with the Eagles, not anymore. I could have last Sunday, I would have been riding high after their upset of the Cowboys. But I've done it too many times this season and been wrong, I'm not picking them on the road against a team with playoff hopes. Plus, if the Saints win out, they put maximum pressure on the Giants to win against the Pats. On the other hand, I could be undermining an outside shot that the Skins get to the playoffs by hoping the Saints knock out the Giants. If the Skins and Saints both win out, the Saints are in, provided the Giants don't win another game. If the Skins win out, the Saints lose and the Giants lose both, the Skins are in. But, BUT, if the Skins win out they get in over the Vikings anyway. The Skins control their own destiny, how about that? Go Saints!
Saints over Eagles, 27-21

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

Could the Bengals jump up and sting the Browns on their unlikely march to the playoffs? Sure. I'm not picking the Bengals. I love the Browns, and they've been good to me. I'm stickin' with 'em.
Browns over Bengals, 37-24

Atlanta @ Arizona

Gotta go with the Cardinals. They're just better.
Cardinals over Falcons, 24-14

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco

Never pick the 49ers.
Bucs over 49ers, 21-10

Miami @ New England

Honestly, I'm picking this game this way because that's what it's going to be, a blow-out. If the streak continues, hey, I won't complain. I hope I'm wrong, I hope the Phins bite 'em.
Patriots over Dolphins by a huge, huge margin

Baltimore @ Seattle

Both teams stink. The 2007 Seahawks are the 2006 Ravens, in that next year they'll be in the toilet after having done nothing in the playoffs. Screw this game.
Seahawks over Ravens, 28-16

New York Jets @ Tennessee

Tennessee is better and is technically alive in the playoff hunt. Plus they're at home.
Titans over Jets, 20-14

Washington @ Minnesota

Here's the thing: all year long I've picked the Redskins, with two exceptions: I did not pick them against the Patriots, and I did not pick them last Sunday. In games where I've picked them, they're an even .500. In games where I did not pick them, they're an even .500. So there's no trend I can fall back on to improve their chances of upsetting the Vikings. Here's what I know: it will be very difficult for the Skins to stop the Vikings offense. Not because Tarvaris Jackson will be able to pass the ball much, but because the Skins have only a decent rush defense, they just lost Rocky McIntosh for the season, and the Vikings are the NFL's best rushing team. There have been a number of times this season where the Vikings have failed to establish the ground game, but nearly all those instances involved Brad Childress inexplicably going away from it. Incidentally, Tarvaris Jackson was not playing in any of those games. I think Childress knows that in order for his young QB to be successful, the Vikings have to establish the running game first, and especially against a defense that has given fits to all but one or two quarterbacks this season, I expect him to pound the ball. If he does that, and they are successful, the chances of the Skins pulling this one off are very slim. On the other side of the ball, the Skins will obviously try to establish the ground game, that's what they do. Of late, their offensive line has done a pretty outstanding job in both running and passing situations. Todd Collins is not the sort of quarterback that will toss balls into the teeth of the defense or take a lot of chances. I expec this game to move at light speed, with both teams pounding the football and dinking and dunking, trying to put together long drives and control the clock. The team that a) wins the time of possession, b) limits big plays, and c) wins the turnover battle will win the game. Time of possession will come down to third down completions, I expect the Skins to do a better job in their passing game, so I'll give them the nod there. Neither team has been real prone to giving up big plays, but the Vikings have shown the ability to create more big plays, both in the running game and in the passing game. On the other hand, there was a big stretch of the season where the Vikings were a bad pass defense, so this one might be a push. Because they've been playing better pass defense of late, I expect the Vikings to win the big-play battle. The final determining factor is this: the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game. Adrian Peterson has been fumble prone, Tarvaris Jackson has more interceptions than touchdowns on the year, including three picks last Sunday. Todd Collins, on the other hand, has not turned the ball over in his two starts and one of the only things we know about Collins is that he's pretty conservative with the ball and makes good decisions. Portis has had fumble problems in the past, Ladell Betts has had fumble problems in the past, even Santana Moss has had fumble problems. This one is too close to call. Because I can't stand picking against the Skins, even on the road in Minnesota . . . wait . . . in Minnesota . . . hmmmmmm . . . when was the last time Joe Gibbs coached a team in Minnesota . . . was that the Super Bowl? The Super Bowl he won over the Bills? The one my mom went to? Yeah, the Vikings are dead meat.
Redskins over Vikings, 35-3 That's right, bitches. A blow-out.

Denver @ San Diego

I could see Denver winning this game. It could happen. If Norv Turner is smart, he'll give the ball to LT as often as possible early in the game and get a huge lead. Why? Two things we know about the Broncos: they kinda stink on the road and they don't play well from behind.
Chargers over Broncos, 28-17

Sorry I didn't have more to say with these picks. I thought I would, but I ran out of gas. Go Skynards!