New NFL Coaches

Now that all the current head-coaching vacancies in the NFL have been filled, I'd like to take some time to evaluate the various situations, first with a look at the former coach, then with a look at the future coach. Here goes:

Miami Dolphins
Out: Cam Cameron
Sometimes, as a fan, you look at a situation, or a guy, and think "that's never gonna work". In my case, I'm probably wrong on a good 75% of those predictions, but I seem to only remember the times when I get it right, and I therefore think of myself as a dead-eye prognosticator of NFL coaching success. I remember thinking Cam Cameron doesn't look like a head coach. I remember being unimpressed during his years in Washington. I certainly remember, after the Dolphins selected Ted Ginn Jr. in the second round of the 2007 NFL draft, thinking Cameron didn't have a clue. Maybe, if Cameron had had a little more luck and earned a few more seasons to iron things out in Miami, maybe it would have worked out. I doubt it. Interestingly, I didn't feel the 2007 Miami Dolphins were the worst team in the NFL at any point in the season. I never saw them quit or mail it in, I never thought they were particularly dysfunctional or incompetent. I thought they'd done a terrible job, on the personnel side, of putting together a team with any depth, and had entrusted their success to a handful of aging, oft-injured former stars, but most of the way through the 2007 NFL season, I thought the Ravens, Chiefs, and Falcons were the worst teams in the league, and I would have picked the Dolphins to beat any of those three teams on effort. I did not pick the Dolphins to beat the Ravens, but I did note that the Ravens were probably the best chance the 'Phins would have all year to grab a win. I'm not suggesting Cameron did a good job of coaching effort, but he didn't poison the well, so to speak. His team caught the injury bug, he made a boner of a draft pick, his front office took the last five years off, and the Dolphins franchise hit their all-time low the same season division rival New England made a serious run at Miami's greatest enduring accomplishment: the perfect season. The perfect storm . . . what would you call a perfect storm of negative coincidences? The Perfect Evil Storm? Anyway, it all led to Cameron's firing at the end of the season. I guess I wouldn't be shocked if Cameron turned up again down the road and had some success, but I wouldn't recommend him to any team, for my part.
In: Tony Sparano
This guy, on the other hand, has the look of an NFL head coach, and the pedigree. In general, I think Bill Parcells is a bit much, but he's got a hell of a record and seems to have a knack for finding talented minds. He targeted Sparano, which tells me he has total confidence in this guy. I've read a handful of stories that suggest the prolific offense for which Jason Garrett is getting a lot of credit in Dallas was actually Sparano's work. If so, hey, he's got an eye for offense. Certainly the Cowboys have had one of the NFL's best offensive lines for several years, and there's nothing more promising for a football team than a coach that knows how to assemble a top-class offensive line. The fact that Parcells has built a front-office of familiar, like-minded guys with similar pedigree is also a harbinger of future success, and likely means that Sparano will have enough confidence in the personnel staff to focus on the actual football stuff. I wouldn't expect the Dolphins to leap up into playoff contention right away, but of all the 2007 coaching changes, this is by far the one about which I have the greatest optimism.

Atlanta Falcons
Out: Bobby Petrino
What can I say about Bobby Petrino that hasn't already been said? This guy's name will live on in infamy in the NFL forever. Let's get something straight: this guy never had it as an NFL head coach. He never had it as an NFL offensive coordinator, he had no business coaching in the NFL. Apart from being a total, total ass-hat, his team played with no spirit whatsoever, his offensive design was crap, and he looked completely lost on the sidelines. What a joke. Petrino was a "big splash" hire from the beginning, an owner getting caught up in the sexy reputation of a famous candidate and not having the infrastructure of sound football wisdom in place to offer any opposition. I'm puzzled by one thing, though: how can Bobby Petrino be a good recruiter? He's a hideous old turd, a cold, arrogant, serious fart-knocker who can't possibly appeal to young athletes. Therefore, I predict ol' Petrino'll be shit-canned by the very impatient Arkansas fans before his first contract comes up. Ok, now that I've slammed the guy, I'll say this: you can't possibly get a worse hand dealt to you than Petrino did in Atlanta, with Michael Vick's dog scandal following right on the heals of Petrino's hiring. The carrot in Atlanta, for any coach, was Michael Vick, a one-of-a-kind athlete on the cusp of revolutionizing the quarterback position. If I took the job in Atlanta to coach Michael Vick and create a new, custom offense, and minutes later he was made unavailable forever, I'd be seriously thinking about leaving too. Was it a prick move? Sure. But in 2007, Atlanta was an NFL wasteland, Petrino didn't sign up for that.
In: Mike Smith
I don't know what to say about this; I don't know anything about Mike Smith. This hiring smells like a good one to me, based on two observations: a) Mike Smith coached a hell of a defense in Jacksonville, a consistently dominant unit with loads of toughness, and; b) I don't know anything about Mike Smith. Typically, when an owner moves quickly on a guy I've never heard of, it means that guy kicked ass in the interview, had a rock solid resume, isn't a big, pompous, blow-hard, and the owner isn't just buying the hype. If Mike Smith can put together a Jaguars-like defense and even a competent offense, sticks around for a while, and runs a professional coaching staff, that'll be a major step in the right direction for the Falcons. The NFC is very shallow, the NFC South is anyone's for the taking, a competent team with a dominant defense should be in or around the playoffs every year. I'm optimistic about this guy, I like a somewhat unknown guy who coaches a good defense and isn't some flashy wind-bag.

Baltimore Ravens
Out: Brian Billick
Listen: there's very little reason to doubt that Brian Billick can assemble a professional team, send 'em out there ready to play well, and string together some big-time success. Also, and unfortunately, he's a jack-ass, the NFL's number one arrogant blow-hard. Over time, his Baltimore players really picked up his attitude, and in 2007, they were easily one of the least likable teams in football. Ultimately, what doomed Billick was his offense: yes, you hire a head coach to win football games, but Billick was supposed to bring a certain offensive acumen to the Ravens, and when that still hadn't materialized after 9 full seasons in Balmer, it started to look like the Ravens were maybe successful because of really savvy personnel decisions by Ozzie Newsome, and maybe in spite of Billick. Even now, I'm sure Billick could turn up in another NFL city, put together a competent staff, assemble a solid roster, and field a competitive team capable of getting to the post-season. But you can't blame the Ravens for wanting to part ways with the guy, who'd become so unlikable and such a negative presence at the end. The Ravens needed a change, ultimately the brass made the right call.
in: John Harbaugh
If you're like me, you heard the Ravens had hired John Harbaugh and pulled a face. John Harbaugh? Wh-wh-what? The secondary coach from Philadelphia, a guy with no head coach experience at any level, a guy who'd previously been a special teams coach and didn't even coach football at any particularly special colleges? Ah jeez. The Ravens say this was their second choice . . . really? Their first choice, apparently, was Jason Garrett, the big-name candidate du jour and a guy who has benefited tremendously from the spotlight in Dallas. I don't have a lot of confidence in the head-coach search in Baltimore; the only thing they've got going for them is Ozzie Newsome, who really doesn't swing and miss on much of anything. Part of me wants to say "hey, if Ozzie likes him, he must be the guy", while another part of me thinks this is a big fucking disaster, another mis-step for a franchise that's quickly becoming something of a joke. What direction is this franchise headed? They put all their eggs in the "2007 Super Bowl Run" basket, and now that that hasn't worked out at all, they're tragically behind in what ought to be a serious rebuilding phase. There are some guys, like Haloti Ngata, Ed Reed, Willis McGahee, Terrell Suggs, and Bart Scott, who might be around for a while and can be the nucleus of a retooling, but around them, they've got a whole lot of nothing: veterans nearing the end of the productive part of their careers. They look a lot like another hopelessly undermanned AFC team with a new head coach: the Miami Dolphins, who happen to have the first overall pick in the draft and a stud runningback, plus nothing else. We'll see . . . I wish them the best, but I'm not so sure this will work out.

Washington Redskins
Out: Joe Gibbs
Gibbs was the only coach to leave his team this off-season without being fired. Overall, Gibbs did a good job in his second tenure in Washington, leading the Skins to two playoff appearances and assembling a quality staff and a strong roster. On the other hand, I really do think Gibbs took the team about as far as he could this go 'round. My friend Dave and I talked about this: in his first stretch with the Skins, Gibbs built the reputation of being one of the hardest working coaches in football, famously sleeping on a cot in his office before it was the hot trend in football coaching. This time around, Gibbs is a lot older, has a lot more family, another business/passion, and nothing left to accomplish or prove. How can a guy talk himself into making that level of commitment under those circumstances? I think it was the smart play: come back to the Skins, put together a super staff full of long-tenured NFL pros, put as much work in as you can, and see about making a run at about 75% of your former commitment. If it works, hey . . . great! If not, the team is on solid footing, they've got an A+ staff and a stable of good young athletes, and you're none the worse for wear.
In: Jim Zorn
Ay yay yay. Never underestimate Daniel Snyder's ability to utterly bumble a total no-brainer situation. I'm not saying Zorn is a bad hire, and I'm not saying Gregg Williams was a no-brainer candidate. But the Skins ought to have been the prime job for any candidate out there, and if anything, the Redskins needed only to act quickly and decisively, and they could have had their pick of the litter. But when you start your head-coach search with looney-toon names like Jim Fassell, Pete Carroll, Bill Cowher, Jim Mora Jr., etc., people start scratching their heads a little. People who don't live in or around Washington D.C., that is. Frankly, if Snyder had hired a single one of those guys, I'd have vomited all over my keyboard. I thought the whole benefit of bringing Gibbs back was the righting of the ship, his capacity to take a dysfunctional, direction-less franchise, and straighten it out. He did that: why in the world would you follow that up with either a) an old turd who'll only give you a five year stint, or b) a shitty young guy who crapped the bed in his previous job (Mora)? There've got to be a dozen or more young-ish, talented, capable coordinators out there with great ideas and the capacity to motivate men and run a professional organization. Leave it to the Skins to only come up with a list of guys who've already done their best coaching. I don't know much about Jim Zorn, but the very fact that I don't know a lot about him makes me feel a little better about him. The fact that he said the Redskins' colors were maroon and black is . . . well, I'd prefer to not even think about that. If you've been around football before, or are even a committed fan, you know the Skins are burgundy and gold, for Christ's sake. Still, he runs a sharp offense, can coach a quarterback up, and made an impression on the owner. I'll be rooting hard for Jim Zorn, I hope he's the future of the Redskins. Next time a vacancy comes up, let's not go way the fuck out of our way to do everything exactly like Jerry Jones, the worst owner in football and a total megalomaniac. Never hire a coordinator before you've hired a coach! No coach worth a damn will want to come into a situation where he can't put his own staff together, it's part of having a vision of the team you want to run! Oh my God, I'm going to have a stroke if I think about this too much . . .

(The Redskins really should have persuaded Lane Kiffin to give in to Al Davis in Orlando and snatched him up. That's a coach. I'd have been psyched as hell to have him in D.C.)

I predict Smith and Sparano will finish their current contracts at a minimum, and be successful. I predict Harbaugh and Zorn will not have great success and will be replaced by the end of their current contracts. I'll be rooting for all four, especially Zorn.

Peace!