NFL Preview - NFC Edition

Let's start out West, no?

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks

Offense
At this point, Seattle's offense is Matt Hasselbeck, a decent o-line, and whoever the hell else they can throw out there. Julius Jones? Sure. Will Heller? Why not? Even their receivers, on paper, look like scraps. For whatever reason, it works. Oh, wait, I know the reason . . . they play in the God-awful NFC West, where a competent high school varsity team could challenge for the division. I'm still, still not sold on Hasselbeck, who seems to me to be just good enough to pad his statistics in an extremely quarterback friendly system without ever elevating his team beyond "fringe contender" status. And while I'm fairly certain Shawn Alexander was a washed up old POS, I'm not certain Julius Jones is much of an upgrade. Seriously, on paper, the Seahawks have one talent-starved offense. D. J. Hackett was probably their most athletic receiver, and he's gone. I'm not sure why I'm supposed to like this offense at all.

Interestingly, I'm fairly certain Seneca Wallace is a starting caliber NFL quarterback. Now I'm going to say something really strange: Cory Chavous called this out on draft day in 2003. He said that, according to his scouting report (that's right, Cory Chavous compiled his own scouting reports - and probably still does - of everyone in the draft), Seneca Wallace was an NFL-ready quarterback with serious game-breaking ability. Now, obviously I'm not saying Seneca Wallace should unseat Matt Hasselbeck, but it's a testament to this guy's ability that, if Hasselbeck goes down with injury, it'll be 5'11" Seneca Wallace who steps in at number 2 on a team with serious playoff expectations. This cat can play!

Defense
On the other hand, I do really like their defense. They have one hell of a secondary, at least two stud linebackers, and they line up three pretty formidable pass rushers in their front four. Frankly, if the Seahawks don't end up with a top-10 defense, it'll be a serious indictment of their coaching staff. It doesn't hurt that they'll have the 49ers and Rams to feast on in four games this season. Ok, new rule: from now until I say otherwise, the teams that win the NFC West, AFC West, and AFC East have to play 2 extra regular season games against the other teams from this group, on a neutral field, the following season. So, in other words, Seattle would have to play New England and San Diego in, say, Missoula. I'm so sick of the same three teams winning those same horrid divisions with the same totally inflated statistics and pumped up image. What a crock.

Fantasy Watch
Hasselbeck is probably a safe bet. Julius Jones is a wait-and-see. Seattle's defense should be a pretty formidable stat-compiler. I'm not over-the-moon for any of their receivers, but they seem to get the job done.

Prediction
I'm not certain this team wins the NFC West. There, I said it. The only team that could possibly contend with them is the Cardinals, but I happen to much prefer Arizona's offense, and Arizona will have the benefit of me hoping they pull the upset, which can't hurt. Seattle plays the NFC East and AFC East this season, which means they have some tough road games in New York and Dallas and a tough home game against the Pats. On the other hand, they get to pad their record against the Jets and Dolphins, although I'm not sure they're very excited about opening the season in Buffalo. The Seahawks have experience, solid coaching, a good defense, a huge, huge home-field advantage, and the benefit of a pretty easy schedule. That should be good for, what, 10 wins? And an early exit from the playoffs? Yep, that sounds about right.


Arizona Cardinals

Offense
Well, we know they've got the receivers. Do they have the offensive line? Do they have the depth in the backfield? Is Matt Leinart ready? Against all odds, I actually like Matt Leinart. It's amazing how quickly my attitude about a player can change when he goes from being an over-rated front-running pretty-boy prick in college to a left-handed rookie battling with (of all people) Kurt Warner for a job. Suddenly, I really hope it works out for this guy. Now, a few things are certain about Matt Leinart: he's fairly intelligent, and he has about average specs for an NFL quarterback. In fact, nothing is true of Tom Brady (physically) that isn't also true of Matt Leinart, except for the whole left-hand, right-hand thing. Neither has a big arm, neither runs real fast. They both have decent height for a quarterback and both are pretty sharp, smart guys. In Leinart's case, the question mark will be how hard he's willing to work and whether or not he has those all-important leadership qualities. In Arizona's offense and playing for Ken Wisenhunt, he'll have every opportunity to succeed. Wisenhunt is an offensive guy who employs a lot of playaction in his offense, and Arizona has maybe the top receiving corps in football. In fact, keep an eye on that Steve Breaston kid: dude has Josh Cribbs-like ability. Also, Early Doucet looks a hell of a lot like the next Anquan Boldin.

Defense
Wow this unit is paper thin. They've got some players, but only one layer of 'em. Their secondary ain't bad, and they've got two pretty disruptive defensive linemen in Bertrand Berry and Darnell Dockett, but damn those guys need to stay healthy. And seriously, the Cardinals need to invest some energy in developing some young guys behind them. Arizona had the 17th ranked defense in the NFL last season, I've got to think they'll improve on that this year. It certainly can't hurt that they're playing the 49ers and Rams twice each. If this unit ends up stinking up the joint, that'll sure put a lot of pressure on the offense to score a lot of points, which it will likely do anyway, but do you really want your young quarterback slinging the ball around in a barn burner? With that offensive line?

Fantasy Look
Leinart is probably another buy-low, sell-high player. Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are solid gold. You could do a lot worse than Edgerrin James, but you could almost certainly do better. I'd keep an eye on the defense, but that's definitely a wait-and-see proposition. If Kurt Warner steps in, he becomes an immediate buy-now-and-prepare-to-be-crushed-when-the-PTSD-kicks-in player. He'll put up gaudy numbers for a few weeks and then the fumbles will start. They always do.

Prediction
For the Cards, it all comes down whether or not they beat the teams they ought to beat. Last season, they had good wins over Seattle in week 2, Pittsburgh in week 4, Detroit in week 10, and Cleveland in week 13. On the other hand, they lost to effing Baltimore, got dumped not once but twice by the abysmal 49ers, and scored only 10 points at home against the Panthers. Those are four games Arizona not only should have won, but should have won very easily. If they can turn around and take care of business against the 49ers and Rams, split with Seattle, and take care of business against scrubs like Miami, the Jets, and Carolina, they'll be on their way . . . to . . . ahem . . . another 8-8 finish. Yikes. Does anyone see this team winning any games against the NFC East? Yipe. OK, that's OK, if they take 5 games in their division, plus Miami, New York, and Carolina, that's 8 wins. Now, if they can maybe . . . ummm . . . beat Buffalo? Or maybe Minnesota? Jeez. Ummmm . . . well, there are always injuries. Sooooooo, if Adrian Peterson goes down, and maybe the Bills are in full tailspin by week 5 . . . hey, it could happen!

Regardless, Ken Wisenhunt looks like the right coach for them and they can only improve as they fill out the depth of their defense and develop their young quarterback. Maybe not this season, but why not 2009? God, that must depress the hell out of Cardinals fans. What's that, maybe 40 years of saying the same thing each year?


(thinking . . . thinking)

(tossing a coin)


San Francisco 49ers

Offense
Welcome to the Frank Gore show! Today, Frank's gonna bash his head repeatedly into that wall over there until eventually he passes out!

This is the 49ers offense. They've got a horse, they've locked that horse in a cramped, decrepit, shoddily build stall, and it's on fire. There's a door, but it's locked. All he can do is bash into it over and over again and hope it eventually opens. I could draw this metaphor out further, but you get the idea. The success of this offense is entirely dependent on how much success Frank Gore can create for himself, in spite of the efforts of his teammates. The quarterback situation is a disaster, a text-book demonstration of the worst possible way to handle a top draft choice at the position. The receivers are total driftwood. Vernon Davis has a ton of ability but nobody to get him the ball. The offensive line is coming along, but they aren't there yet and besides, they're not exactly special. To make matters worse, Mike Martz is now on board, which means whichever "quarterback" wins the competition is looking at a series of brutal concussions and can probably go ahead and count 10 years off the end of his life. Martz is crap. If this guy could run the A-11 offense, he would. His presence in Detroit was so great, the Lions actually never finished even at .500 in any season, he got his quarterback nuked repeatedly, they wasted one of the deepest backfields in football, and he was run out of town by a third-year coach. Nice. That's who you want.

Defense
The secondary and defensive line are thin, but there's some talent there. The linebackers are pretty nice, and they've even got some depth now that they've signed Takeo Spikes. I'm still not sure it makes sense to have Patrick Willis and Mannie Lawson playing in a 3-4, but Willis had a great year in 2007 and if it works, hell with it.

You heard me when I said if it works, right? Because the 49ers were 25th in total defense in 2007. I realize they spent a lot of time on the field because the team had no offense, but still. I'm getting a little tired of these coaches that insist on running the 3-4 even though they don't have the specialized personnel required.

There's Really Only One Viable Fantasy Player on This Team
Frank Gore. I'd say "keep an eye on Vernon Davis" except Mike Martz is to offensive design what Andy Warhol was to painting. He does one thing, and if it doesn't work for you, too bad. Mike Martz don't use no tight ends, y'hear?

Prediction
Only the St. Louis Rams can keep the 49ers out of the NFC West cellar this season, but it won't be for lack of trying by San Francisco. Mike Nolan has done everything in his power to ruin Alex Smith's career, and he's put Frank Gore on the same fast-track to oblivion by overburdening him in this shoddy, mishmash of an offense. The defense, supposedly Nolan's specialty, hasn't progressed to the point of being able to carry the team for even brief stretches. Mike Martz is the final straw. I say this is the final season for Nolan, and whoever comes in behind him will hold the door open for Martz on his walk of shame as well. It's time to start yet another rebuilding phase in San Francisco.

I'm still rooting for this Smith kid. I hate to see a number one overall pick get the "bust" label put on him, and there seems to be some agreement that Alex Smith has ability. What I don't understand is, if you've got a strong tailback and a good weapon at tight end, and you're trying to develop a young quarterback to preserve your investment, why in the hell would you hire a coordinator who doesn't run the ball and doesn't use tight ends? When the Colts drafted Payton Manning, they had a good receiver and a good tailback, and pretty much every play the Colts ran those first few seasons was designed to get the ball into the hands of one of those two players. It seems like the 49ers have invested nothing in finding Smith some good weapons to work with, and then shied away from designing their offense to make it easy for him to get the ball to his play-makers. What a fucking disaster. Good coaches and coordinators realize that, unless your name is Michael Vick, Vince Young, or maybe one or two other guys, a quarterback is not a playmaker. A quarterback is a facilitator, a guy who's job it is to get the ball to the playmakers. That means you design your offense to make it easy for your quarterback to do his job. Ultimately, that's the problem with Mike Martz, and that's been the problem with the 49ers quarterback situation for a long while now. They keep expecting Alex Smith to shoot fire out of his ass and sprout wings. It's not going to happen. He needs weapons and he needs an offense that is designed to get the ball out of his hands and into the hands of those weapons. Not this train-wreck bullshit.

Anyway, it's clear to me that wholesale changes are needed in the 49ers organization.


St. Louis Rams

Offense
I'm not sure the Rams will finish last in their division, but I'm pretty sure they won't finish better than second-to-last. Especially now that Stephen Jackson has decided he doesn't actually need to practice anymore. What's with holdouts? Is there anything more alien to your average person than a multimillionaire who plays a game for a living refusing to play said game because he wants more millions? What the hell is that all about? How out of touch are these guys? Everyone should have to spend two years making $7.50 an hour working 40+ hours a week at some shitty retailer before they're allowed to do things like act, or sing, or play sports for a living. Talk about ruining my goodwill; it's likely I'll never root for the Rams or Stephen Jackson ever again. Also, Marc Bulger . . . yikes, the walls are coming down on that facade pretty quickly, aren't they? How convinced are you that this guy is a quality NFL starter? Not only did he look like dog-shit when he was healthy last year, but he can't stay healthy for squat and he's looked like steamed garbage this preseason. 6 years at $65 million? Oh man.

Now, add to that the fact that the Rams have a thin and not-special offensive line, no depth in their backfield, and a totally underwhelming receiving corps, and you've got one of the worst offenses in football. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe the Rams can return to their blazing ways. I don't see it. It'll be a surprise to me.

Defense
On the one hand, I love their defensive line. On the other hand, man they have NO secondary. When I referenced Cory Chavous above, I was pretty sure that guy had been out of football for a long time. Lo and behold, this cat is still playing safety at the top of the depth chart for St. Louis. Wow. Cory Chavous should be coaching somebody's secondary and working his way up to what will almost certainly be a very successful post-playing-days career. Pisa Tinoisamoa has one of the best names in football history, and generally speaking, their linebackers can fly around a little. There's just no depth there. I hope Chris Long and Adam Carriker work out for the Rams, they might be able to mask the secondary with a strong push up front. There are pieces here to be excited about, but as a unit they're probably a few years off. I'm not sure their coach has a few years.

A Bad, Bad Fantasy Picture
Remember before the 2007 season, when Stephen Jackson was talking about getting 3,000 total yards? Hey Steve, how'd that work out for you? Tell me, again, why is it you think you're worth a lucrative contract extension? Hmmmm. And you're pretty sure you'll have a productive season without actually practicing with your team?

OK, stay away from the Rams entire roster.

Prediction
I guess the only real question mark in St. Louis is related to Scott Linehan's job security. Are the owners sold on this guy? Was he brought in to rebuild or retool? If rebuilding was the goal, will they give him time to see it through? If it was retooling after all, I guess he's done. Folks were talking about him as if he was toast in 2007, so I feel pretty confident in saying if they start very badly, he'll be out on his ass. They need to start grooming Mark Bulger's successor, especially since Bulger has one of the most inflated contracts in football. They're headed in the right direction on the defensive side of the ball, but don't you get the sense there's some foul air in St. Louis? Like maybe the well has been poisoned, and the smelly culture of losing has started to ooze into the drinking water? I don't know, that looks to me like an organization that needs to be blown up and rebuilt, sad to say.


NFC South

New Orleans Saints

Offense
The Saints have a hell of a roster on offense . . . I guess. Actually, no they don't. They might. We know Drew Brees can be a sharp, prolific passer. We know Deuce McAlister can run when he's healthy. We know Marques Colston is a good receiver. When healthy, their offensive line is pretty good.

Here's what we also know: Drew Brees does not handle pocket-pressure real well at all; Reggie Bush has not yet shown the ability to be a feature back in the NFL; Jeremy Shockey was a major distraction for the Giants and was easily replaced by a late-round draft pick; and none of the other receivers on the team have distinguished themselves. Robert Meachem might be worth keeping an eye on. This is an offense that's based on timing, scheming, play-calling, and sharpness, and when it's sharp, it can really put up the numbers. I happen to have a problem with a team that doesn't seem to have any interest in just lining up and out-muscling their opponent. I look at this group and see an offense that, if their timing is off, simply can't man-up and punch their opponents in the mouth. That worries me. Still, they've got a good coach and a smart team, and they expect to be prolific.

Defense
The Saints are hoping they're defense is a lot better this season. I won't lie, I think Jonathan Vilma might be good enough to flip this defense on its head and make them a respectable unit. He's a beast. Apparently their draft pick has a real chance of being a difference maker. They definitely have a pair of good pass rushers at end. It just needs to all sort of come together. You hear that all the time in football, especially this time of year. It all needs to come together. If it does, the Saints will be a contender in the NFC. If not, they'll still probably win the AFC South.

Good Fantasy Options
Drew Brees is probably a good pick-up. Reggie Bush is worth a look, but don't get too carried away. Marques Colston is almost a sure thing. Keep an eye on Shockey, but I dislike him enough to stay away regardless. Meachem might be the dark-horse receiver in the whole NFC. He's got studly ability.

Prediction
They'll win the South. They're so much better than the rest of their division and the coaching staff is pretty excellent. Health in the backfield would help. Strong play from the defense would make this a no-brainer. They're definitely not ready to contend for a Super Bowl, not at all. In one man's opinion, in order to make a run in the playoffs, an offense has to have players that can just dependably win individual match-ups. In that same man's not-so-humble opinion, that's why the Giants were able to beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Guys like Plaxico Burress, Brandon Jacobs, and virtually every guy on their defensive line just go out and dominate individual match-ups. When nothing else works, they go out and beat up the guy across from them. What will happen when the Saints run into such a team? They'll be dumped. They're almost there, and losing a playoff game to a tougher team is part of the process. A great regular season, a sharp, timing based offense, and a modest showing in the playoffs is nothing to hang your head about. The Saints are on an upswing.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Offense
I suppose if you're Jeff Garcia, you're dropping a big fat deuce in Jon Gruden's toilet every morning between now and the day they fire your fuckin' ass. I mean, c'mon. Jeff Garcia wasn't just a Pro Bowl quarterback for the Bucs last year, he was virtually their entire offense and the only reason they made the playoffs last year. I'd argue he took them to the playoffs in spite of Gruden's coaching. After all, it was Gruden who shut down with 3 weeks left in the season and pretty much ruined any chance they had of winning a playoff game. Seriously, if you're a member of Tampa's offense, you've got to be wondering what the hell is going on in the world. Your team goes out and gets a quarterback who basically wills your team into the post-season in spite of a series of devastating injuries, and as soon as the season over he and the franchise are re-enacting The War of the Roses. What the hell?

Beyond that, the Bucs really don't have much of an offense. Their offensive line isn't much, and though Joey Galloway was productive last year, they've got a pretty old and underwhelming receiving corps. Cadillac Williams was their most talented offensive player but it's unlikely he'll play the first half of the season if at all. One wonders what this team will do if Garcia decides to give the finger to the Bucs and move on. They don't have shit else. I do like Ernest Graham but he's nobody's entire offense.

Defense
The defense keeps chugging along, doesn't it? They've gotten a bit younger and they're still fast as hell. Monte Kiffin is still a pro at running that thing. Depth is an issue at virtually every position. With their cover-2, they need to get a lot of pressure up front. Here's hoping it works out with Gaines Adams.

Before I move on, isn't Jon Gruden basically coasting along on the success of Monte Kiffin's defense and Jeff Garcia's toughness? What the hell has Gruden done for the Bucs since the magical Super Bowl season, besides allow all the game-breaking talent to be sucked out of the offense? Is Jon Gruden secretly a turd? I guess we'll find out.

Fantasy Issues
I'd take a long look at the defense, but I'm not too high on any of their offensive players.

Prediction
The Bucs will be in the wild-card discussion, and that's that. I don't think they'll get the wild card. Honestly, I think this team was a fluke last season and I think they're pretty much crap. While I respect Jeff Garcia, he's not as good as his 2007 season made him look. Without Cadillac Williams, this team has as much offensive firepower as the Chiefs. They're talent starved and they have no young play-makers to develop. When the wheels come off in 2008, they'll be light-years away from contending again, which makes me wonder what the hell the Bucs coaches and executives have been doing for the last 5 years. Gruden probably isn't on the hot seat, but he should be. He stinks, and his obsession with veteran players has left this team utterly without any chance of continuing to contend beyond this or next season. Remember what happened to his old ass Raiders team when he bolted for Tampa? They had one season left in them and now they're one of the worst teams in football that only now has enough young players to start thinking about the future. Booo on Gruden. He's no friend of mine.


Carolina Panthers

Offense
How good is Jake Delhomme? To hear the chatter from Carolina, you'd swear this guy was an elite quarterback. I'm not sure. Pouring over his numbers, he does have some pretty good stats since he took over in Carolina. Maybe he is a difference-maker. I don't know. Assuming he's healthy and puts up similar numbers to what he's done in other years, you've got to like Carolina's chances of having a good season. I like D'Angelo Williams, I think he's an underrated player, and I think the addition of Jonathan Stewart should free him up to run in space a bit more. The Panthers need somebody to step up at that number two receiver spot, or I'm going to start thinking that Steve Smith is the Allen Iverson of NFL receivers: he just can't coexist with another game-changing receiver. If they can open up their passing game a little, I don't know, maybe this is the year for Carolina. They just don't get my blood pumping, you know? I'm a little sick of giving them the benefit of the doubt every season and then watching them suck their way to mediocrity.

Defense
Now here's an underperforming unit. Just like their offense, they're always waiting for somebody to get healthy. With the offense, it was either Jake Delhomme or a tailback or a receiver or a lineman. With the defense, it's been Dan Morgan. Morgan was a talent, but damn that cat is made of glass. Hopefully John Beason can give them the talent without the fragility. And what the hell happened to Julius Peppers? Can anybody say "'roids"?

Alright, that was an asshole comment. But seriously, what the fuck happened to that guy. He and Shawn Merriman both remind me of Lattimer from The Program. You know the guy; he came off the juice and turned into a cream-puff. I hope that's not the case with either, but why the hell would a guy go from being perhaps the most dominant pass-rusher in football to a 2.5 sack guy with virtually no motor whatsoever? If he can turn it around, he'll make a world of difference for that defense. I think cutting ties with Kris Jenkins was a good move, though he was a beast in his day. I like their corners. Sometimes a good pass rush and good corners can be all you need for a solid defense, and they've got a sick young middle linebacker to boot. I'm trying not to get too optimistic; these Panthers have a way of grossing me out once the season starts.

Fantasy Guys
Jake Delhomme could be another buy-low, sell-high quarterback. Steve Smith is always good for some stats. I like D'Angelo Williams, and I think he'll do a thing or two. I'd wait on that defense, make 'em prove themselves before you take the leap.

Prediction
You never know with this bunch. If they stay healthy and solve some enigmatic issues, they could win the South. One major injury or just another season of bizarre inconsistency on their defense could derail the whole deal and cost John Fox his job.

On the topic of Fox, I honestly think this guy can coach. I like his idea of offense: run the ball a lot and set up play-action. I like that he puts a premium on playing tough defense and building through the draft. They just need some creativity in their offense and they need an injection of toughness. This ain't no beauty contest.

I predict the Panthers will show flashes and will be in the wild-card race for a bit. They'll finish around 8-8, but in a revitalized NFC, that won't be enough. It'll probably get Fox run out of town, and that will probably mean the end of the Delhomme era in Carolina as well. I think they might have their quarterback of the future in Matt Moore, so there might be pieces to build around. They need Dwayne Jarrett to start producing and they need to build their depth. This is just a frustrating situation in Carolina, and as much as I want John Fox to find a way to make it work, I think his time is about up.

Atlanta Falcons

Offense
This is decidedly not a talent-starved offense. Michael Turner is a horse. Jerrius Norwood is a great complimentary back. Roddy White seems to have flipped a switch. They even have their quarterback of the future. What they need is an offensive line and a few years to burn the stink of the Vick era off their uniforms. They need to stick the ball in Joey Harrington's hands and tell him this is his last best chance to pull a Drew Brees and turn himself into a hot commodity in free agency. They need to sit Matt Ryan on the sidelines with a clipboard and let him watch. They need to lean on the running game a la Lane Kiffin and play for respect and dignity. All things considered, if I'm a Falcons fan, I'm pretty excited about the future. So they're rebuilding, at least they've got the pieces. They're not the Ravens, for crying out loud. They may be whores, but they ain't horses. By the way, here's an interesting thing: the Falcons have two offensive coordinators. One wonders how that works.

Defense
The defense has an interesting mix of talented veterans, unknown young guys, and a head coach that will double as the defensive coordinator, always an interesting twist. Trouble is, the Falcons had the NFL's 29th ranked defense in 2007. Maybe a lot of that could be blamed on having a disastrous offense, a prick head coach who only cared about the offense, and an atmosphere around the team that could probably be compared very closely to a funeral home. I guess we'll wait and see. I expect the Falcons defense to be in the bottom half of the NFL, but if they end up near the middle of the pack, it'll be an achievement for Mike Smith to hang his hat on.

Fantasy is So Gay
Stay away from the quarterbacks, I don't care if it's Chris Redman, Joey Harrington, or Matt Ryan. Roddy White might be worth a glance. I'd take either Michael Turner or Jerrius Norwood, with limited expectations. Stay away from the defense, while you're at it.

Prediction
If they have toughness and play like professionals, it'll be a successful season. I don't care how easy or tough their schedule is, I don't see them winning 5 games. Still, this isn't the worst team in the NFL, and they acted decisively and appropriately to wipe the franchise clean of the stink of their recent history. It's a whole new team, with plenty to be excited about. If they had any fans, I'd ask those people to be patient with the new roster. However, it seems the Falcons had no fans, just Micheal Vick supporters, but there's a silver lining there: if they stink, they won't have to worry about disappointing anybody. If they end up with some fans, they'll be people who are proud of the current team and are excited about the future. I think Arthur Blank made a good call in hiring Mike Smith, and I like their roster for the future. It could be worse.


NFC North

Minnesota Vikings

Offense
Everyone keeps saying the key to Minnesota's season is Tarvaris Jackson. Well I call bullshit on that. The key to Minnesota's season is the health of their backfield. If Tarvaris is only as good as last season and the backfield stays healthy, with their improvements on defense this should be a 10-win team. If Tarvaris takes a giant step forward, they might become a 13-win team. If Tarvaris is even worse than last year, they still probably win 8 or 9 games. But if Adrian Peterson goes down, I say it could cost them as many as 5 games in the win column. Not only is he the starting tailback on a run-first-then-run-some-more offense, he's probably the best pure runner in football. They nearly made the playoffs last season with uneven (at best) production from the quarterback position, and they'll be right back at it regardless of whether or not Jackson improves. I wonder whether they have the receivers. I wonder whether Brad Childress will be patient and ego-less enough to stick with the ground game when he's known as a pass-heavy West Coast offense guy. The one-two punch of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, playing behind what must be the NFC's most talented offensive line, will be too much for most teams, regardless of how many defenders they cram in the 8-yard box.

Defense
To me, it looks like a hell of a unit. To be perfectly honest, I don't buy all the crap about them having a weak secondary. I see some talent back there, I see linebackers that can fly around, and I see a pretty good pass rush up front. I expect this to be a top-10 defense. Leslie Frazier is a cover-2 defensive coordinator who did some studying under Jim Johnson in Philly and Tony Dungy in Indianapolis, so he's got some chops.

Lot's to Like in This Fantasy Picture
First of all, obviously you grab Adrian Peterson, and you probably want to go ahead and take Chester Taylor as well. Each of these guys could go over 1,000 yards. Hell, each could go over 1,200 yards. I think you stay away from the receivers, and you definitely make Tarvaris Jackson prove himself before you move in. I like the defense, I say go for it.

Prediction
Because I think they have the best backfield in football, a great offensive line, and a great defense, I expect it to be a good season in Minnesota. Because I also think Tarvaris Jackson will show improvement, and even if he doesn't, he can still make plays with his legs, I think the Vikings will win the NFC North. I've got to hand it to Brad Childress and Minny's management; they've built a really solid team without making any big free-agency splashes, and they seem to have spent most of their money on their offensive and defensive lines. I dig that. I don't see them making a serious push in the post-season, mostly because I don't think Jackson is yet ready to take them over the top. I could see them winning a playoff game, even a road playoff game, and especially a road playoff game in Dallas. They're tough, ugly, hard-charging sons of bitches with exactly the kind of athleticism that New York used to crap all over the Cowboys last winter. I especially like that the Vikings are tooled to make many more runs into the post-season over the next decade. They're not old at any position and by sticking to Tarvaris Jackson instead of making a move on Brett Favre, they've committed to a strong future. Good for them.


Green Bay Packers

Offense
Now HERE's a team that needs big things from a young quarterback. I like Aaron Rodgers, I support the move by Green Bay, but that doesn't mean this guy doesn't carry the hopes of this franchise on his shoulders. He just does. The real problem is he may never get a chance to shoulder that burden unless Ryan Grant a) gets into camp, and b) gets healthy. Nothing can derail the best laid plans like an asshole millionaire with one productive season on his resume holding out for tons of money. Gimme a break. I say cut his ass. Who's to say he wasn't a one hit wonder anyway?

Beyond all that, here's what the Packers do have: a really good receiving corps, a strong offensive line, a few healthy bodies in the backfield, and a young quarterback with 3 seasons worth of stored understanding of the offense and personnel. Do I think Aaron Rodgers will throw for 4,200 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2008? Nope. Do I think Packers fans will have a right to be pissed off and resentful if he doesn't and they miss the playoffs? Nope. First of all, it's a tougher conference and a much tougher division they play in this season. Second of all, nobody can convince me Brett Favre wasn't headed right back to his 2005-2006 ways, when he was a pedestrian quarterback with a knack for killer turnovers. Hell, even in his dream 2007 season, he killed the Packers on multiple occasions with truly terrible play: remember the Bears, that Urlacher interception? Remember his first quarter debacle against the Cowboys? Remember that brutal playoff loss? He was dogshit. Please, don't tell me this guy was a guarantee. I know about as well what the Packers can expect from Aaron Rodgers as anybody in Green Bay would have known what to expect from Brett Favre. They'll be fine. Rodgers will play well. They'll be in the running. And if they're not? Tough. As Jack Napier told Lt. Eckhart right before he iced his fat, crooked ass: "Think about the future!"

Defense
I do like the Packers defense, although I'm not as high on their secondary as maybe some folks are. I like their defensive line and linebackers. I think the secondary is nice, but I'm not sure it's the heart and soul of the unit. I think this is a defense that benefited tremendously from the success of Green Bay's offense. I'll say this: if the Packers can stuff the run like they did in 2007, they'll be in great shape. I think their offense will continue to have success, I think teams will still have to be one-dimensional, and I think they have some heady play-makers and a strong pass-rush to take advantage. I'm not sure it'll be a top-10 defense, but it'll be good enough.

Fantasy Picture
I'm not sold on Ryan Grant so I'm not biting. I like Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, and I might take a buy-low, sell-high glance at Aaron Rodgers. Their defense is certainly worth a look.

Prediction
They'll be in the running one way or another. They could come back and win the division, though I don't think it'll be anywhere near as easy as it was in 2007. They could fight for the division and end up in the thick of the wild-card picture for sure. Let's not forget, though, that this was a team that struggled to 8-8 in 2006 and went 4-12 in 2005. They have a lot more talent, especially on defense, than they did a few years back, but it's not like this is a team that's been churning along. They had some unexpected success in 2007 and their fans are greedy. I can understand that. I think a reasonable expectation is that they'll probably finish something like 9-7 and fall outside the playoffs. Mike McCarthy is obviously, obviously a hell of a football coach, and whatever can be said of Ted Thompson's handling of the Favre situation this off-season, he's pretty clearly built a team with more than a modest share of young talent. They've got the foundation for years and years of continued success. What they need is for their spoiled fans to maybe reign it in a little. Give their young quarterback a chance to succeed or fail in a substantial way before you shred the guy. There's always the chance that Rodgers turns out to be a big difference-maker, one way or the other. He might play fantastic football start to finish and lead the Packers to an NFC title. He might also turn into Rex Grossman and lead the Packers to their doom. I think the former is far more likely than the latter, but it won't be any easier for this kid if his hometown fans are booing him and chanting the name of his predecessor every time he bounces a deep-in or forces something. Certainly, Favre had more than his fair share of total boners, and they sure as hell let him get away with it.


Detroit Lions

Offense
Here's what I like: the Lions fired Mike Martz and want a stronger commitment to the running game. I'm not sure they have the backfield for a strong running game, but they have an improved offensive line, and they have the kind of receiving corps that will force teams to stay out of the box. At any rate, any time a team demonstrates an interest in committing to a strong ground game, they're on the right track. Any time they back up that commitment by firing Mike Martz, they've won me over.

Now, about those receivers: is there a more terrifying duo than Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson? Obviously not. How about this: has there ever been a more physically imposing, intimidating receiving duo? I'm not sure. Roy Williams is something of a freak, and Calvin Johnson makes him look like Art Monk. That's not meant to dis ol' Art at all. In fact, I passed Art Monk in Whole Foods today and I had a very hard time not squealing like a lunatic, such is my affection for Art Monk. But he was not a special athlete. Calvin Johnson makes special athletes look like . . . well . . . not-special athletes. A strong running game can only help these guys by making it difficult for teams to sell-out to stop them.

Even more reason to be optimistic about the Lions (but maybe not for this season): the Lions have their future quarterback in Drew Stanton. A few seasons in the offense under Jon Kitna and he'll be ready to rock. Seriously, I'm not even being sarcastic. The Lions could and should be on an upswing.

This should be a good offense. Will it be as gaudy as 2007? Probably not. Will it be good enough to finish in the top third of the league and keep the team competitive? Sure, I think so.

Defense
Now, the bad news: that's one awful looking defense. They have one special player in Barry Sims, and then a bunch of stiffs. Yikes. There's no part of this unit I like. I don't get it, what happened? Didn't the Lions know they needed to improve their defense after last season? Was the solution to that dumping their best defensive player? What's the plan there? Just when you think maybe there's a method to Matt Millen's madness, you take a look at their defense and start dry-heaving. Seriously, when this guy pissed a draft pick down the tubes on Mike Williams, maybe they could have used it on another difference-maker on the defense. I don't know, I'm not an NFL executive, but it seems like maybe putting another strong young player on your defense is maybe a smarter plan than drafting a guy who hasn't played a snap of football in more than a year and only played one season of college football before that. Hmmmm . . .

Fantasy Studs to be Found Here
Roy Williams is just about a sure thing. I think Calvin Williams is a sure thing as well. Jon Kitna should be good for some decent numbers. You might find a sleeper in their backfield, but I'm generally skeptical about Tatum Bell. See, Tatum Bell is a burner, a track-star guy with straight-line speed. He's not a tough runner and he's not especially shifty. He needs A+ zone blocking to get going, and I'm not sure he'll get it from a line that's spent the last two seasons pass-blocking about 75% of the time. I'd definitely run screaming from anybody who took this defense.

Prediction
You just can't tell me the Lions are going to be a bad team. They've got some talent, especially on offense. I like Rod Marinelli and I think he showed determination and balls by firing Mike Martz. I love the Mike Martz firing so much that I think I'm going to work it into as many sentences as possible from now on. I don't think the Lions have a playoff push in them, but I could see them putting together a 7 or 8 win season and playing respectably. The job this off-season couldn't be simpler: stock that defense. I hope Rod Marinelli has a little suction in Detroit, I'd be interested to see what he can do with enough time to really put his stamp on this team. Now that Mike Martz has been fired (see?), they're sort of out-from-under any single play-book and can construct their offense around what strengths they do have. Defensively, look: it's going to be a long year. But they've got at least one piece in Sims, they just need to stuff Millen in a closet on draft day and target difference makers for that side of the ball. I'm worried that as long as Millen is lurking behind the scenes, this team won't be able to really put together a strong, well-rounded team. He's so overdue to be fired, it's gotten funny. He's actually become a punchline, at this point. If he wants to prove he has what it takes to be a successful GM, he's got to get serious about strengthening more than just the receiving corps.

Chicago Bears

Offense
Buh. Gross. Truly, truly depressing. There's virtually no talent on this offense. I can't even consider Devin Hester a weapon for this offense, though he is a prodigious talent and he will be playing on that side of the ball. But he's only as polished a receiver as Ted Ginn Jr., and besides, who the hell's gonna get him the ball? Folks say this Matt Forte kid might be the real deal at tailback. God I hope so. If not, what the fuck will the Bears do to move the ball? I mean, just look at that receiving corps. What a total joke. How in the hell are any of their quarterbacks supposed to get comfortable throwing to that group? I'm so disgusted by that offensive roster, I'm considering writing a letter to the Bears organization. I mean, even if Rex Grossman had T.O. and Randy Moss, he'd still be a scattershot knucklehead. But seriously, they've got dog-shit at receiver. That's hideous. Greg Olsen might turn out to be something, but if that's the case, why in the hell would any team not double-team the guy? Certainly, nobody will be afraid of any other "weapons" in their passing game. If Rex Grossman or Kyle Orton turn out to be serviceable, if Matt Forte is a beast (and I mean a beast), if Greg Olson develops into a strong receiving tight-end, and if Devin Hester turns out to be a dangerous receiver, this could potentially be a mediocre offense. When that's your best case scenario, you're fucked. They do have a decent offensive line, on paper.

Defense
Ah who knows. I guess I'm just not a believer. I do believe Lovie Smith is a good coach and a good defensive coach. I'm no longer sure Brian Urlacher is a great middle linebacker. I'm not sure Lance Briggs is anything but an over-rated crybaby. I feel confident that Adawale Ogunleye and Tommie Harris are strong players, but I'm definitely not sold on their corners, not at all. No way Mike Brown stays healthy back there. No way he makes as big a difference as everyone says he does. I don't know, I see a middling defense here. If they play lights out, it could make a huge difference for the Bears record in 2008. That's a big if.

No Fantasy
Yeah, right. Ummmm . . . Hester might be an outside shot. The defense might be ok. Not much to fall in love with here.

Prediction
The Bears will compete, they'll hustle, they'll shoot themselves in the foot, and they'll lose more than they'll win. Lovie Smith will probably be fired. The Bears need to spend several off-seasons filling their roster with young difference makers, especially on that offense. Maybe a few losing seasons would be a good thing, it would give them higher draft picks, which in turn can be used to acquire veterans or flipped into multiple lower picks. I wish there was a way for Smith to stick through that, but the Bears showed an extreme reluctance to extend this guy even after he took them to the Super Bowl, it seems highly unlikely they'll be interested in waiting for him to rebuild another contender. I'm not sure where the Bears go from here. They seem to be reluctant to bring in a veteran quarterback, but they truly don't have "the guy" in place. Why not take a flier on somebody like Daunte Culpepper or Byron Leftwich? Those guys can play and are proven commodities. I'd take a look at Chris Simms, I'd take a look at J.P. Losman, I might try to make a move on Brady Quinn. Maybe they're waiting for that situation in Cleveland to shake out. They can't still think Rex Grossman is the guy, and I just know they can't believe Kyle Orton is the future. I like Grossman, I'd be just thrilled if he turned his career around this year, but the Bears brass haven't done shit to give him the kinds of weapons he'd need to get comfortable. What a shame.


NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

Offense
As much as it pains me to say it, the Cowboys have a hell of an offense. They've got a real-deal tight-end, a real-deal receiver, a productive runner, and a great offensive line. They've got depth in the backfield. Bravo.

While I happen to think Tony Romo is one of the most over-rated players in NFL history, I can't deny him his successes: this guy is a pretty good regular season quarterback. He's not invincible, he's not great, he's just a good regular season quarterback. I see a big hole at the number-2 receiver slot, and I don't see anybody that gives me goosebumps as even a third receiver. Frankly, even with Terry Glenn, I didn't think they had a great receiving corps.

Yuk. The Cowboys gross me out. The uniforms, the state, the owner, the gay-ass quarterback, the loud-mouth bullshit artist receiver, and especially their gay, gay, GAY fans. They even have a totally over-rated offensive coordinator. I can't wait until the Cowboys turn the team over to Jason Garrett so they can go right back in the toilet where they belong. I'm done talking about their offense.

Defense
The defense is strong. I no longer love the defensive line, and I'm not sure how Zach Thomas is an upgrade in a 3-4 system. Roy Williams is pretty clearly a basket-case. Still, DeMarcus Ware is a true beast, Bradie James is underrated, Anthony Henry is still underrated, and they've got loads of depth. I like that it's a mostly home-grown defense. They play with a lot of attitude and they've got some legitimate play-makers.

Fantasy Homoeroticism
Tony Romo is a favorite of fantasy gaywads everywhere. He's a big stat-boy. Wooopideedoo. Marion Barber is good around the goal-line. T.O. is just about a sure thing. Jason Witten is a sure thing. I'd stay away from everyone else for now, although Felix Jones could jump up.

Prediction
Look, the Cowboys will probably win the NFC East. They've got more talent than the rest of the division. I'm not sure even a Super Bowl victory could save Wade Phillips' job, such is the extent of Jerry Jones' man-crush on Jason Garrett. That said, the Cowboys don't win playoff games for shit and their quarterback is a consummate front-runner. Get ready for another early exit, douchebag Dallas bandwagon cocksuckers.


New York Giants

Offense
With Brandon Jacobs and Plaxico Burress, the Giants have two of the three best non-quarterback individual offensive skill-position players in the division. Plaxico, in my opinion, is the best receiver in the NFC East and one of the two or three best receivers in the NFL. Clutch, dominant, and tough as nails, he's the ultimate weapon in New York's offense. Brandon Jacobs is a baller, equally clutch and a friggin' load. With just about any offensive line and just about any quarterback, those two guys alone would be enough to make a good offense. I think Eli Manning is ready to make the leap, and I think that having the monkey that is Jeremy Shockey off his back will make a huge difference for his confidence. Kevin Boss is just as good as Shockey and far less annoying and distracting. They'll need a second receiver to step up and they need good play from their offensive line, but clearly they're capable. They did win the friggin' Super Bowl.

Defense
This unit took a big hit in the off-season, no bull. They've got pretty enviable depth in their secondary, but the loss of Gibril Wilson is significant. He was a big, physical, imposing safety with good speed. I love the defensive line, but the loss of Strahan removes the leadership. I'm not sure about the linebacking corps, I think the loss of Kawika Mitchell is significant. I remember that guy making a lot of big plays down the stretch for them. I guess we'll learn whether Steve Spagnuola is worth all the hype this season.

On that note, haven't we learned by now that just because a guy can coach one side of the ball doesn't mean he'll be a good head coach? For crying out loud. Spagnoula might just be the defensive version of Norv Turner for all we know. How about we learn a little bit about the guy before we crown his ass, eh?

There's Some Fantasy Here
I'll take Brandon Jacobs, sure. I'll definitely take Plax. Boss is worth a look. Eli is worth a look. There might be a dark-horse receiver in there somewhere. I'm not sold on the defense, I'll wait and see.

Prediction
The Giants will be in the running for the division and for the wild-card. Or maybe not. Maybe this is all Super Bowl respect I'm giving them. Still, they're a good team with a strong foundation, and they've kinda won my heart. Frankly, any team but the gay gay GAY Cowboys that took down the Pats in such dramatic fashion would have won my heart, but now that Jeremy Shockey is in N'awlins, this is actually a pretty likable team, to be honest. I hope they play well, I hope they take down Dallas, and I hope they lose both of their games against the . . .


Washington Redskins

Offense
I'm ready for Jason Campbell to be my favorite player in NFL history. Something about this guy has captured the imaginations and good-will of many Redskins fans like pretty much nobody I can remember. I so want him to be successful, and I feel pretty confident he will be. He's got a big arm, good mobility, great size, a good head on his shoulders, a great personality, and winning in his blood. He's a winner. Screw it, he's already my favorite NFL player. Go Jason Campbell.

Clinton Portis may no longer be a stud, but he and Ladell Betts equal 1.5 studs, and I'll take it. Add to that Rock Cartwright and maybe even Marcus Mason, and you've got yourself a goddamn backfield. The Skins seriously need either Malcolm Kelly or Devin Thomas or both to step up and become legitimate big-time receivers, but for now I think we can do good things with a group of pass-catchers that includes Santana Moss, Antwan Randle-El, James Thrash, and Chris Cooley. Cooley is a beast, a Pro-Bowler.

If the offensive line is healthy, it's the best in the division. Even if a couple of guys go down, they finally have some depth up front, with Stephon Heyer, Jason Fabini, and Chad Rinehart ready to step in and rip motherfucker's balls off.

This should be a good offense. I trust Jim Zorn to get them going.

Defense
Health will be a big concern, but if they can get and then stay healthy, they'll be solid. They might even be special. Andre Carter and Jason Taylor equal a strong outside pass-rush, and if they can get something from Erasmus James, so much the better. Cornelius Griffin is good, and though the other interior guys are relatively unknown, we Skins fans have known them as productive players for at least a year now. The top 3 linebackers are strong, but even if Rocky McIntosh takes some time to come back, I like Khary Campbell and H.B. Blades, I think they'll be alright. Frankly, I think the Skins have the best secondary in the division, with Carlos Rogers, Fred Smoot, and Shawn Springs all capable of making plays, with super-stud Laron Landry back there patrolling center field. Reed Doughty might not blow anybody's hair back, but he's a pro, he throws his body around, and this Chris Horton guy might be a beast behind him. I'm a goddamn homer, alright, but this was a strong defense in 2007 and I think it'll be just as strong in 2008.

A Homer's Fantasy
Take the defense and Chris Cooley. I've already got Jason Campbell, but I won't pretend it's a great decision. Portis got a lot of goal-line carries with Gibbs running the show, but time will tell how that goes with Zorn. Betts can do a thing or two, but again, you'll have to wait and see what kind of role he plays on this offense. I wouldn't get excited about any of the receivers.

Prediction
I see the Redskins in the thick of the wild-card chase. I'll be overjoyed if they contend for the division. More than anything, this is a Redskins team it feels good to root for. No mercenaries. No asshole coaches. No scum. A professional young team with a likable young head-coach and a gritty, winning attitude. This is probably my favorite Redskins team of the last 15 years. If they win 7 games, I'll still love 'em. If they win 5 or fewer games, I might start to have doubts about Jim Zorn, but I'm not like a lot of Redskins fans. I didn't live through the Over-the-Hill Gang, so I don't have any warm feelings about a team built out of aging mercenaries. I like a young, tough, sharp team with likable, home-grown players strewn throughout. That's what we have, and I'm willing to let them go through some growing pains. We've got a mercurial owner here in D.C., so an ugly season might set him off in some wild firing-and-spending spree. God I hope not. I hope he's learned his lesson. I really do think this is the start of a good, good thing in Washington, a decade of competitive football and playoff appearances and high times for the Redskins.


Philadelphia Eagles

Offense

Donovan McNabb is the best quarterback in the division and Brian Westbrook is the best runningback. They've got a good offensive line and a talented tight-end. The Eagles could very easily win the division. They need to stay healthy, they need their receivers to step up, and they need their motherfucking asshole fans to stay the hell out of the way. Andy Reid'll get 'em going. My hands hurt, so the Eagles are getting hosed. They're a good team, I'll like 'em as long as they have McNabb, and I think they'll be good on offense.

Defense
Not so sure about the defense, although they'll have a good secondary and Jim Johnson knows how to dial up the pressure. A little thin at linebacker, but what else is new? Isn't that the signature of a Philly defense?

Fantasy Shite
Westbrook is MONEY. Take McNabb. I like whatsisface . . . the tight end . . . ummm . . . shoot. You can look at the damn depth chart yourself. L.J. Smith!! There it is. The defense might be worth a flier.

Prediction
They'll hang around. They might win the division. They'll be tough if they're healthy, and I hope they let Andy Reid stick around. I like the Eagles. My dog is barking at the door, and I think my other dog might be in a coma. See ya.