Week 4 Picks

Lots of tempting road teams in Week 4, and at least one really insulting early line. Lets get right in there.

Atlanta @ Carolina
The Line: Carolina by 7
As well as Atlanta played at home in weeks 1 and 3, they didn't put up much of a fight in Tampa in week 2, and though I'm not completely sold on Carolina (especially at home), I'm not sure the Falcons are ready to win a division road game against a competent team. I'll say this much: if the Panthers struggle offensively like they did in week 3, there will be more than a few people wondering about Steve Smith's true impact on their offense. Sure, he's a big play guy, but how much of their passing game becomes an exercise in feeding Smith's ego when he's in there? Remember Jeremy Shockey in New York? How the offense really took off after he went down with injury? Doesn't Steve Smith strike you as being essentially the same kind of guy: enormously talented but extremely immature and hard on his teammates? I'm just saying . . .
Panthers over Falcons, 24-13

Cleveland @ Cincinnati
The Line: Cincinnati by 3.5
What a depressing game. One of these teams will see their hopes of a successful season flushed completely down the toilet in this one, while the other team will have only delayed that reality by a week, maybe two weeks. What's going on in Ohio? Combined, these teams have 2 Pro Bowl quarterbacks, 3 Pro Bowl receivers, a Pro Bowl tight end, a Pro Bowl offensive lineman or two, a Pro Bowl special teams guy, and literally no defense at all. But seriously, these are probably the two biggest underachievers in football, and if their fans are going through anything like what Washington fans went through when our team was the perennial Ultimate Underachiever of the NFL, well, I pity the fools. Hopefully, these teams will at least have the decency to put together a good ol' shoot out, combining for something in the neighborhood of 90 points. That I could handle. Most likely, it'll be a depressing turnover-fest, a quarterback will be benched, and the game will come down to a missed field goal or missed call by a referee.
Browns over Bengals, 37-31

Houston @ Jacksonville
The Line: Jacksonville by 8
Honestly, I don't see how Houston can win this game. Houston's offense looks like boiled crap through two games. They found a running game last Sunday, but now they're going against a very stout run defense and a team that runs the ball extremely well themselves. I just don't see it happening. I suppose if the Texans can find a way to stuff the run even a little bit, they can probably generate enough of a pass-rush to maybe force some turnovers. Offensively, they've just got to protect the quarterback. I mean, Matt Schaub is entering Marc Bulger territory here, sitting on a big contract and playing like a steaming turd. If he's shell-shocked, as Peter King suggests, that won't be new for Houston fans, but it's a damn shame for the franchise. They've got just enough weapons in the passing game that if they can keep a competent passer upright, they should be able to hang with most teams, even without a running game. It worked last season, one wonders what the hell happened between then and now that all of a sudden they're so crummy.
Jaguars over Texans, 24-20

Denver @ Kansas City
The Line: Denver by 9.5
This could very well be that annoying game where Denver reminds everyone why they haven't been a legitimate contender in years, and Kansas City jumps up and plays that one "effort" game against an opponent hell-bent on shooting themselves in the foot. It usually happens to Denver, in Kansas City, when they really ought to win the game, and then they just don't. On the other hand, this Kansas City team is so, so, so incompetent, especially on offense. They might be the one team in the NFL that can't put up 30 on Denver's defense. I don't know, I really don't like Denver on the road, especially against a garbage team like the Chiefs, but the Chiefs are truly awful. I guess I'll pick the favorite in this one. And if they're gonna win, they're gonna win huge.
Broncos over Chiefs, 35-20

San Francisco @ New Orleans
The Line: New Orleans by 6
New Orleans is not yet at the "ruh-roh" stage, but if they lose this game (and they might), they won't just be at "ruh-roh", they'll be in the early stages of full meltdown. The positive is this is game one of a three game homestand, but a 1-3 start could put them in a deep early hole in their division, and I think we all know there will be no NFC wild-card teams from outside the NFC East. They've played all three of their games pretty close to this point, but they haven't shown much ability to defend at all, and they've got a schedule ahead of them pretty full of teams that feature the running game. I can foresee a situation in which the very talented New Orleans offense can't get on the field because they're defense can't stop the run, in which case a 1-3 start could very seriously come back to haunt them. That missed field goal against Denver would loom large, friends.
San Francisco has shown some ability in their offense, but I'm not crazy about them on the road either, and I'm not ready for them to be 3-1. It's like selling your soul to the devil: there may be some early rewards, but down the stretch, you're fucked. That's San Francisco. J. T. O'Sullivan is not the long term answer. Mike Martz is not the long term answer. Mike Nolan is not the long term answer. All this team can do is tread water and hope to hang their hats on a winning record in the regular season. That's the extent of it.
Ultimately, I guess I like the Saints in this one. I suppose it could be a blow-out, but that would depend upon their defense making dramatic strides this week.
Saints over 49ers, 31-28

Arizona @ New York Jets
The Line: New York Jets by 1.5
Get ready for this nugget, Jets fans: your team will lose this game. In fact, it won't be all that close.
Why? Because you needed four stops inside the 10 to squeak by the Miami Dolphins in week 1. Because you were pushed around at home by the Patriots. Because you went on the road and got mutilated by the Chargers. And because the Cardinals are nearly as good as the Chargers and a whole hell of a lot better than the Dolphins in week 1 or the Patriots in week 2. Note that I'm not saying they're better overall than those teams, but they're better than the week 1 version of the Dolphins and the week 2 version of the Pats.
Plus, Brett Favre sucks.
Cardinals over Jets, 30-20

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
The Line: Tampa Bay by 1
If Tampa stays in this game, it'll be because of that Tampa-2 defense, and because Aaron Rodgers hasn't faced it yet in his NFL career. That sucker can be a bitch for young quarterbacks. On the other hand, he's been damn sharp so far, and Tampa's offense probably doesn't have the juice to do much against Green Bay's defense, even without Al Harris. This could be a very interesting game to watch. For Green Bay to stay in the discussion as one of the top teams in the NFC, they need a good win here. Tampa doesn't lose much if they lose this one, except that they then go to Denver, where they'll almost certainly be picked to lose. It's difference between hitting week 5's divisional contest with Carolina at 3-2 or 2-3, I suppose. Know what? I'm gonna give Aaron Rodgers the benefit of the doubt. If he hasn't been rattled by Minnesota's tough defense or even the super tough Cowboys defense, he should be able to at least avoid losing the game by himself against Tampa Bay.
Packers over Bucs, 20-14

Minnesota @ Tennessee
The Line: Tennessee by 3
If Tennessee turns the ball over a lot, they'll give Minnesota a chance to win. If Adrian Peterson goes nuts, absolutely nuts, he'll give his team a chance. Other than those two circumstances, I don't see Minnesota winning this game. Since I can't imagine even Adrian Peterson going nuts against Tennessee's defense, I can't pick Minnesota, not on the road, not against this tough an opponent. Tennessee will do just enough offensively to take advantage of good field position and get the win.
Titans over Vikins, 16-13

San Diego @ Oakland
The Line: San Diego by 8
Ooooh . . . trap game for San Diego. Coming off a big blowout win against the soft, overrated Jets, on the road in Oakland against a scrappy, backs-to-the-wall Raiders team with superior coaching and a commitment to the run. If San Diego is smart, this is game one of a nice little two-game road swing against the bottom of the AFC, and a chance to put together a 3-game winning streak and get back above .500. For a team with a competent coaching staff, the Raiders would be total roadkill. I definitely see the Chargers going into Oakland having already scratched this one off in the win column, and Oakland cramming the running game down their throats for four quarters. Oh man, I so want to pick Oakland to win this game. Honestly, I'm going to hate myself if I pick San Diego and the Raiders win. Damn damn damn.
Ok, just remember that I put it out there. If the Chargers win, they'll win handily. But there's a very, very good chance that Oakland pulls the Upset Special here and sends San Diego into a tailspin. A very, very good chance.
Chargers over Raiders, 34-17

Buffalo @ St. Louis
The Line: Buffalo by 8
Buffalo will win this game. Why? Because Trent Green is no upgrade over Marc Bulger, certainly not enough of an upgrade to turn the Rams from perhaps the worst team I've ever watched in an NFL game into a team that can upset the hungry, 3-0 Bills. Not that I'm totally sold on the Bills, but I feel confident about one thing, at least: the Bills will not come out flat and give the game away. If nothing else, any team that beats the Bills this season is going to have to actually beat them. The Bills might make mistakes and kill themselves, but they won't lose for lack of effort. They're a professional team, those Bills. St. Louis, on the other hand, is a river of liquid shit.
Bills over Rams, 24-14

Washington @ Dallas
The Line: Dallas by 11
Look at that line again. Dallas by 11 points. 11! That's the biggest margin of the week! Now, I know Dallas is playing like the best team in football right now, but 11 points? Over a playoff team from last season? A 2-1 playoff team from last season? A 2-1 playoff team from last season that split the series and had a chance for the sweep? If I'm Jim Zorn, I've already assigned some kid to write down that line on 53 post-it notes and stick one on each player locker in the building. I've got huge posters of it out on the practice field. I end every sentence with "and they expect to beat us by 11 points".
Now, to be fair, there's this: last season, the Redskins had fought their way to an early 4-2 record by playing mostly close games against mostly decent teams before they headed to Foxborough to play the best team in the NFL in week 8. Redskins fans were cautiously optimistic about our chances of at least playing them close, and then New England delivered the most humiliating, most one-sided obliteration of the entire NFL season. Now, I'm not saying this Dallas team is at all in the same category as the 2007 New England Patriots, nor would I suggest for a second that this is the same Redskins team as last season, but I'm extremely wary of getting my hopes up for how they might fare on the road against a very hot opponent. The Cowboys are expected to win this game. The Redskins are expected to lose. I, of course, want the Redskins to win. I feel like they have a chance of winning, especially since they only lost by 6 points to the Cowboys in Dallas last season. But the truth is, they're on the road against the best team in football. It will take a huge, huge effort to walk away with this win. It will tell me pretty much everything I need to know about Jim Zorn if they pull it off. Right now, I feel like Trinity and Mouse from The Matrix, and I've just watched Neo scratch his way to a draw with Morpheus, and now he's going for the jump sequence. "Nobody does it on the first try", I tell myself, but I'm still chewing my fingernails to shreds. I know I'm not supposed to expect or even necessarily hope he can do it, but still.
Just remember, after Neo fails and falls, he goes on to kick some major ass down the line. That'll be the silver lining. Because as hopeful as I might allow myself to be, I can't pick Washington to win this game.
Cowboys over Redskins, 28-23

Philadelphia @ Chicago
The Line: Philadelphia by 3
I don't think it'll be that close. I think the Eagles will get to Kyle Orton with ease, and I don't think Matt Forte will be able to run the ball much. I know Donovan McNabb absolutely carved up a very stout Dallas defense in week 2, so he should be able to handle the Bears. It's also a homecoming for him, so I think he'll play very well. Frankly, I'm a little disturbed by the fact that the Redskins/Cowboys game gets the 4:15 slot, while the Sunday-nighter features the Kyle Orton-led Chicago Bears and the Monday-nighter features the Joe Flacco-led Baltimore Ravens. Seriously, why aren't Minnesota/Tennessee and Washington/Dallas in the primetime slots? Or maybe even Green Bay/Tampa Bay? Hell, I think most people would rather watch Houston/Jacksonville than either of these primetime turds. Neither Philly nor Chicago made the playoffs last season, and the Ravens were expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. What kind of primetime lineup is that?
Eagles over Bears, 27-17

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh by 7
Pittsburgh, without Willie Parker and Casey Hampton, might just be in trouble. I have serious doubts about whether this Ravens team can go into an environment as hostile as Hines Field and pull out a road win against a competent team. I know this much: as tough as Baltimore's run defense has historically been, the Steelers can't afford to do too much passing against pretty much anybody but Detroit's pass-rush. The Steelers need to wait for Baltimore to self-destruct, and with a rookie quarterback against one of the league's toughest, most confusing defenses, it's bound to happen. Pittsburgh just can't give Baltimore any chances to swing field position or get defensive points by playing too cute with the passing game. They've dodged several bullets already by allowing Ben Roethlisberger to get banged around as much as he has without any major, major injuries, and Baltimore's defense is no joke.
Because they're at home, because the Ravens have to rely quite a bit on a lot of youth on their offense, because Pittsburgh has a great defense and a lot of veteran savvy, I'm picking the Steelers. It may not be my iron-clad lock of the week, but it's the safe bet.
Steelers over Ravens, 14-10

No features or extras with the picks this week. For the record, I picked 7 of 13 road teams in week 4, so there's a very real chance that I'll finish below .500 on my picks for the week. I'll feel like a goddamn champ if I come out with a solid showing.

Go Skynards!