Football and Week 9 Picks

Before I get to the picks, I just want to say a thing or two about week 8 and the NFL season so far: first, I think this has been an excellent NFL season. Lots of parity, lots of exciting games, a handful of very competitive divisions, and no juggernauts. I'm thoroughly enjoying this season.

Second, and I thought of this because I heard Jim Kelly on Mike and Mike this morning talking about how, in his day, there were at least a dozen high-quality, consistent quarterbacks around the league, and whenever he finds himself getting nostalgic about those days, he realizes it's for this reason: quarterbacking in the NFL ain't what it used to be. Any year for the past, ummm, seven NFL seasons, I would have been in complete agreement, but this season, I don't buy it. Here's a list of guys who, as of today, could play quarterback for my flag football team any day:

Jason Campbell
Tony Romo
Eli Manning
Donovan McNabb
Aaron Rodgers
Kyle Orton
Jeff Garcia
Jake Delhomme
Drew Brees
Matt Ryan
Kurt Warner
Tom Brady
Trent Edwards
Ben Roethlisberger
Peyton Manning
Matt Schaub
David Garrard
Jay Cutler

And . . . I'd probably take Chad Pennington, Brett Favre, Marc Bulger, Kerry Collins, and a few other guys, too. My point is, there are at least 22 starting quarterbacks in the NFL who are not only worth a damn, but are actually valuable, productive centerpiece type guys on somewhat successful teams. We can no longer lament the poor quality of quarterbacking around the NFL. In fact, as far as I'm concerned, Kansas City and Detroit are the only teams in the NFL that don't have a worth-a-damn (yet) quarterback on their roster. That's something, actually. And what's more, teams like Tennessee, Cleveland, and Arizona might actually have a few worth-a-damn quarterbacks on their roster. I like that, that makes me optimistic about the next few years of NFL football.

Now, without further ado, let's dig right into a pretty damn good week of meaningful matchups.

New York Jets @ Buffalo
The Line: Buffalo by 5.5
This is a good game. Division rivals, both with playoff hopes, in a game that could re-shuffle the deck in what has been a surprisingly feisty AFC East. And . . . well, if you buy the name "New York" Jets, these teams are intrastate rivals.

At first glance, I want to say Buffalo needs this win more, but do they? A second straight division loss, especially a home game, would be a blow, but they still have 4 division games after this one, and a loss here wouldn't necessarily even drop them out of first in the division, depending on how the rest of the weekend shakes out. The Jets, on the other hand, are 1-1 in the division, and a loss here could potentially drop them into last place. They haven't looked especially good in two weeks, and their offense seems to have regressed significantly. This is what passes for "a difficult stretch" on New York's schedule: after this they host St. Louis, then travel to New England, then to Tennessee, then host Denver. Keeping in mind that the Rams play in the horrid NFC West, that makes this game one of a 5-game stretch of playoff-minded teams.

Buffalo wins this game if they remain stingy with the ball on offense and force Brett Favre to throw underneath. He's bound to self-destruct, he's been doing it for three weeks. Buffalo's defense is good at forcing turnovers and they should get a special teams boost, they're due. Also, because they're at home, I like 'em. It'd be a big disappointment for them to give this one away.
Bills over Jets, 24-20

Detroit @ Chicago
The Line: Chicago by 13
This game is impossible to call, and I'll tell you why: because it pits two NFC North teams against, umm, eachother. Of all divisions in football, the NFC North is the one where intra-divisional contests are totally, totally unpredictable. Just look at Chicago and Minnesota's 89-point barn-burner two weeks ago. Who can predict this shit?

It's entirely possible either team runs away with this. Even Detroit. You never know. I suppose the most likely scenario involves Chicago putting a ton of pressure on Dan Orlovsky, keeping Detroit's offense entirely under wraps with the exception of one huge Calvin Johnson play, and coming away with an easy win. It'll probably go something like that. But I'm telling you now, this one could be a 100-point explosion that comes down to a late safety, or it could be 9-6.

Obviously, I'm taking the Bears.
Bears over Lions, 28-10

Jacksonville @ Cincinnati
The Line: Jacksonville by 7.5
By my count, there are nine interesting games this weekend: Jets/Bills, Ravens/Browns, Texans/Vikings, Cardinals/Rams, Packers/Titans, Dolphins/Broncos, Cowboys/Giants, Patriots/Colts, and Steelers/Redskins. That leaves this Jaguars/Bengals game in the "decidedly not interesting" category. Jacksonville needs this game to get their playoff hopes back on track. Cincy, at this point, isn't so much worried about ever getting a win as they are just getting 2008 over with so they can all go their separate ways. It'll be blacked out in Cincinnati. Nobody in Cincinnati cares, why should I?
Jaguars over Bengals, 20-14

Baltimore @ Cleveland
The Line: Cleveland by 1.5
Aesthetically, this will probably be a dog. From a silver-lining, glass-is-half-full sort of perspective, this game has both meaning and history, and so therefore is an interesting game worth paying attention to.

The Ravens have played poorly in exactly one game this season, their blowout loss to the Colts. Other than that, they've been pretty damn excellent on one side of the ball and pretty close to serviceable on the other. Flip that around, and lets pretend they've been playing A+ offense and C- defense for 8 weeks; not only would we all be paying a lot more attention to them, we'd consider them a legit playoff contender and we'd be all over John Harbaugh's ass. Nobody gives a shit about defense, what a shame. Baltimore's defense, folks, is something else. To be honest, I'm not too thrilled the Redskins have to play them this regular season.

Just because good defense slows the pace of a game down and doesn't feature as many marquee players doesn't mean it can't be astonishing to watch. Yes, this game will likely be played for the most part between the 30s. Yes, it will feature a lot of very short runs and a lot of deflected incomplete passes. Yes, it's likely both quarterbacks will look bad. Doesn't it mean something that it won't be as much a result of either offense being especially incompetent and more because these are division rivals with two defensive-minded head coaches, playing in cold-weather? I'm going to choose to go ahead and be excited about an old-fashioned battle for field position, and I'm going to choose to be appreciative of the work of Baltimore's defense as they beat-up and tear-apart Cleveland's shit.
Ravens over Browns, 16-13

Tampa Bay @ Kansas City
The Line: Tampa Bay by 8.5
Last week, Tyler Thigpen had a pretty solid day for Kansas City, completing 25 of 36 pass attempts for 280 yards and 2 scores against a fairly mediocre Jets defense. This week, the Chiefs face an outstanding, incredibly frustrating Tampa defense that ought to be pretty damn ticked off about losing to the Brad Johnson-led Cowboys in what could have been a big-time statement game. How do I predict Herm Edwards will address this?

He's going to have Tyler Thigpen drop back at least 40 times in this game, and Tyler Thigpen is going to have a nightmarishly bad day. After the game, a nauseating demolition, Herm Edwards is going to talk about not understanding how a guy can go out one game and look so sharp and precise and then crap the bed the next game, about how it's important to perform consistently, about taking that "next step" as a player and developing into a consistent quarterback. He's going to look frustrated and say something about taking a step forward and then taking two steps back. Write this shit down, because you know it's coming.

Nothing against Tyler Thigpen or any players on Kansas City, but I hope they get fucking nuked on Sunday.
Bucs over Chiefs, 31-3

Houston @ Minnesota
The Line: Minnesota by 4.5
To me, this looks like a very interesting football game. Houston matches up extremely well against Minnesota's defense. The only question, I suppose, is how they'll fare at stopping or slowing down Minnesota's running game.

If you're Gary Kubiak, you probably want to get out to an early lead through the air, knowing the extreme likelihood that Brad Childress will panic and abandon the run. If there are any must-win games left on Minnesota's schedule, this could be the last one. If they lose here, stick a fork in 'em. I have a hunch they're already done, but a home win against a super-hot Houston team would likely have the effect of deceiving everyone into thinking they're still in the hunt for the post-season.

Houston, on the other hand, can make something of a statement if they go on the road and notch another win in Minnesota. Anytime you win four straight folks are going to sit up and take notice, but they haven't exactly been giant-killers to this point: all three of their wins have come against teams below .500, and two of those wins came against teams that are a combined 0-fer. Not that the Vikings are a .500 team or especially good, but in Minnesota they're friggin' Goliath compared to the roadkill Houston has had to deal with the last few weeks.

To be honest, I'm kinda leaning towards the Texans here. In case you were waiting for it, here's the big "unless": Adrian Peterson could go nuts on Houston's defense, and that would change everything. I suppose we'll learn quite a bit about Houston by how they perform in week 9. They've lost some close ones and beat up on some garbage, and now there are folks like me that like them as a dark-horse wild-card contender. That might turn out to be absurd, and we'll have a better idea one way or another after this game, which should be a good test for them.
Texans over Vikings, 31-27

Before I go any further, I have to point out that I've now picked four straight road teams, including two who are not favored. Not a good start, here.

Arizona @ St. Louis
The Line: Arizona by 3
And hell if it isn't another tempting road team, for Christ's sake.

Don't look past this game: this game has actual, honest-to-goodness playoff implications. I'm not kidding when I say not only do I think St. Louis could win this game, but I think if they do win it, suddenly their season isn't a joke anymore. They don't have a single team left on their schedule that they ought to be especially worried about. The toughest test they'll get before week 17 will be from the Bears, and they have 'em at home. It's not at all out of the question that the Rams could string some wins together here. Now, having said that, in order to have a legit chance at making some noise in their division, I'd say they need to win at least 5 of their remaining 9 games, including 4 of 5 division games. 8-8 would be a brilliant, brilliant season for them, and it's not beyond hope they could squeeze out a division title that way.

God, am I getting way ahead of myself or what?

As for Arizona, seriously, these friggin' guys are 1-3 on the road. The good news is that one road win came in the division, at San Francisco. Ultimately, with the way these guys play at home, the only road wins that'll matter will be the ones they can pick up in the NFC West. That makes this a very important game for them, and gives them an opportunity to put some momentum together and a little distance between them and the second place team in the division. For crying out loud, Arizona ought to win this game.

You know, I'm having a very, very hard time leaning that way. I'm not happy about picking another road team, especially a 1-3 road team. Damn. Hold on, hold on . . . last season the Cards went 2-0 against the Rams and averaged 41 points a game. Granted, "Zombie" Scott Linehan was still running the show in St. Louis, but I think it'd be fair to say the Cardinals feel comfortable taking on that Rams defense. Shoot. Aaaahhhhhhhh.

FUCK!

Cards win!
Cardinals over Rams, 34-21

Green Bay @ Tennessee
The Line: Tennessee by 5.5
That's a pretty respectful line for Green Bay, on the road against the 7-0 Titans, innit?

I'm giving Green Bay a chance here, and here's why: they're 2-1 on the road, 1-0 versus the AFC, and on a 2-game winning streak. Mike McCarthy is a pretty smart coach, Aaron Rodgers is almost a Pro-Bowl level quarterback, and to be honest, I do think the Packers are the best team the Titans have faced this season. Home field will be a big advantage for the Titans, especially as their fans get all frothy and insane with pride. Actually, now that I think about it, this should be a hell of a game.

I guess it all comes down to Green Bay's defense. If they can't shut down Tennessee's ground game, they won't have a chance. I trust Charles Woodson and Green Bay's secondary to do enough of a job against Tennessee's fairly anemic passing attack, but all Tennessee needs is a big time of possession edge and a few scores to take another easy win. I'm not especially confident they'll be able to do it. I'm extremely interested to see how Green Bay's passing attack fares against such a dangerous defense, and I'll be interested to see how McCarthy sets this one up.

I don't suppose you can pick against an undefeated team with this kind of defense at home, and I'm not even in the ballpark of going that way, but the thing is, sooner or later the Titans will lose a game, and at a certain point, the fact that they're undefeated will stop working for them in my picks and start working against them. They're good, they're really good, but I don't think they're actually the best team in the NFL and I don't think they're as good as their record. Still, like I said, I can't possibly pick against them at home.
Titans over Packers, 23-21

Miami @ Denver
The Line: Denver by 3
I chucked this one on the interesting pile for the following reasons: 1. Denver is 4-3 and atop their division, such as it is; 2. Miami is 3-4 and hanging around in the AFC East, an actual NFL division with actual NFL-quality football teams; 3. Denver's defense is flat-out terrible, while Miami's offense is at least interesting and unpredictable; 4. Denver plays 100 times better at home than on the road; 5. Miami actually has a pretty damn solid defense with a pretty damn fearsome pass-rush, and it wouldn't be totally unexpected if they gave Jay Cutler a very hard time.

But I won't lie to you, I have no interest in this game and no particular interest in either team. Objectively, there's stuff to like about any game featuring two teams near .500 with offenses worth watching. The Broncos are not to be taken seriously, and as funky, fun, and surprisingly competitive as the Dolphins have been, they still wear those goddamn fruity uniforms and Ronnie Brown is still the only player on the team I can take seriously as an NFL player. I want Miami to win, and I wouldn't be shocked if they do, but I'm taking the home team.
Broncos over Dolphins, 28-27

Dallas @ New York Giants
The Line: New York Giants by 8.5
I'm legitimately disappointed that Tony Romo won't be able to play in this one. Not because he'd make much of a difference, but because the Cowboys have a humiliating ass-whupping coming their way and it'd be so much more enjoyable if Romo were in there on the receiving end.

Look: it's not impossible that Dallas could win this game. Obviously. It's a division game, they've got loads of talent, and it's not like the Giants have exactly been on fire. But New York managed to emerge from their tough week 8 road trip relatively healthy and the fact that they won in Pittsburgh means the New Jersey fans will be all the more grateful, confident, and bloodthirsty for some Cowboy meat. There are some teams who are like that: wins make them play better, losses make them play worse. Some teams lose an out-of-conference road game and they come home so frustrated and bloodthirsty, it doesn't matter who they play next, they're ripping their heads off, sucking out their brains, and shitting down their necks, period. Then there are other teams, who get such confidence and swagger from a win, they can't wait to go out and do it again. Interestingly, I don't think there's a team in the NFL that fits into the former category this season, but there are a lot that fit in the latter. Alls I'm saying is, I wouldn't want to be the Cowboys on Sunday.

And I'm really hoping it's a feeding frenzy. If Dallas loses this game, they'll be 1-2 in the division with another division road game looming, and they'll be crammed at the bottom of the NFC East, several games behind the Redskins and Giants.
Giants over Cowboys, 25-17

Atlanta @ Oakland
The Line: Atlanta by 3
Wait a minute, didn't Atlanta host Oakland already this season?

(Checking . . .)

No, but it's funny, looking at their schedule, this is like part 3 of the Patsy Special the Falcons have enjoyed this season: Detroit at home, Kansas City at home, and now Oakland on the road. That's not to say Atlanta has an easy schedule at all, because they don't, but it's nice to see they get a few grapefruits in there from time to time.

I can't honestly call this a must-win for them, although it'd certainly be discouraging if they lost. At this point, the Falcons are playing with house money. If they can scatter 3 more wins in their remaining schedule, they'll have 7 on the year and that will be a huge, huge, ENORMOUS accomplishment for this franchise. Under no circumstances will that be anything less than a miracle season in Atlanta. And they don't have a whole lot of easy stuff left, so they kinda need this one. Hey, while you're on the goddamn ride, you might as well get into the role-playing, nah-mean? If your record says your in the playoff chase, go with it, man!

I'm not sure they'll win, but I'm sure they've done enough to deserve the 3-point spread, and I'd rather pick them, with their strong running game and solid play from Matt Ryan, over a Raiders team that has scored an NFL-low 9 touchdowns all season. Seriously, 7 games, 9 touchdowns. Atrocious.
Falcons over Raiders, 23-18

Philadelphia @ Seattle
The Line: Philadelphia by 6.5
Sooner or later, Seattle's defense is going to pop up and steam-roll somebody. It's going to happen. You don't send 1,000 defensive players to the Pro Bowl one year and then magically turn into the worst piece of shit defense in the world the next. There's talent there, dammit, and there will be a game this season when they jump up and destroy somebody. Why not at home? Why not against an over-confident Philadelphia team fresh off a home win against the Atlanta Rookies?

And you're crazy if you think I'm gonna pick it that way. Alls I'm saying is it's going to happen, and it could very well happen agains the Eagles. If it doesn't happen, it'll be because Brian Westbrook is healthy and ridiculously dangerous. Philly's defense will give their offense a short field all day, and the Eagles have enough firepower to take advantage. The wild card is out there: Seattle's defense will show up for at least one game this season. Thing is, even if it happens in week 9, I don't think it's enough for them.
Eagles over Seahawks, 20-14

New England @ Indianapolis
The Line: Indianapolis by 6
Before I get going here, a quick check: I've picked 7 of 12 possible road teams. What the fuck?

How many people want to bet I'll take Matt Cassel's New England Patriots, on the road, when I'm facing an epic embarrassment come Tuesday, behind all these road teams?

Look, I can't do it. The truth is, I don't make each pick in a vacuum. Each pick is strongly influenced by the pick before it. I know that makes no sense, but there it is.

There's still probably a lot of bitterness between these two teams, knocked down though they are. Each coach probably desperately wants to stick it to the other guy. Indy hasn't looked good but once all season. I'm not sure the Pats have ever looked especially good this season, but they've done enough to reach this point at 5-2. As these weeks pass, each game gets more and more important for the Colts. The trouble is, I don't think preparation or focus has been an issue in Indianapolis for, like, a decade. If they're playing poorly and losing, in other words, it's because they're not very good. If the Cowboys are playing poorly and losing, it could be focus or whatever. Not the Colts. They just don't have it this season.

Now, having said that, if each person and each team has just the tiniest little reserve, the kind of thing that comes out in big moments of big games, you've got to think the Colts will dip into it for this one. This is like the AFC pride bowl: these are two of the three "big-dog" AFC East teams, all three are knocked down a bit, I can't imagine it would be anything but crushingly painful to see your season tailspin a bit more at the hands of another of the big three.

And if each person and each team has that tiny reserve, I've got to go with Peyton Manning's reserve at home versus Matt Cassel's reserve on the road, right?

You know what? It doesn't matter. I'm taking the Colts, I don't feel great about it, but I can't take another road underdog.
Colts over Patriots, 27-21

Pittsburgh @ Washington
The Line: Washington by 2
First, let me say this: I don't have TV, but I'll be watching this game. Every damn minute of it. I don't yet know how or where, but I'm watching it.

Second, this: I'm not afraid of the Steelers. They have my bored-Madden offense, and they wouldn't be all that special even with a serious offense.

Third, there's this: I expect this to be the craziest non-division-contest Redskins crowd in years. The Redskins are 6-2, it's the final game before the bye week, it's a Monday-nighter, nationally televised, against an NFL powerhouse.

Now, for the actual game: I'm bothered by the fact that the Redskins can't put pressure on quarterbacks. Ben Roethlisberger is a damn fine quarterback, but his line isn't much and he makes it easy for a good pass rush to get to him by standing back there waiting for his receivers to get 75 yards down field before throwing the ball. On the other hand, LaRon Landry is deployed specifically as a deterrent to the deep ball, so far it's worked this season, and when Big Ben doesn't have the deep ball, he tends to force it. That could be a good thing.

Furthermore, I'm bothered by the fact that the Redskins don't have any kind of skill or knack for forcing turnovers. On the other hand, the Steelers have a 0 turnover differential despite being the NFL's best overall defense.

Now, I'm encouraged by what I know of Washington's preparation and gameday execution: the Redskins probably won't shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers, and I fully expect Jim Zorn to have an offensive gameplan that is able to move the ball against Pittsburgh's extremely ferocious and confusing defense. I'm extremely confident the playcalling and execution of plays will be solid offensively. I'm also encouraged by Pittsburgh's 0-2 mark against the NFC.

So far, nothing I've seen has me encouraged that Greg Blache's defense will be able to adjust and muster much of a pass-rush, even against Pittsburgh's porous pass-protection, and that could be a problem. I don't have another hand for that one; that's the whole deal. I'm extremely worried that there will be no pressure on Roethlisberger.

Still, I like Washington's chances. I do. I like them especially because Pittsburgh might be the only team in the NFL who can be counted on to respond to an out-of-conference loss with a brutal sodomization of their next home opponent, except this isn't a home game for them and that out-of-conference loss was in Pittsburgh. Since the start of last season, the Steelers are 2-5 in non-divisional road games. They could win, sure, they're a very good football team. But so are the Redskins, this is the last push for Washington before the bye week, their second nationally televised game of the season, their first serious test at home, and we've seen how they respond to tough opponents this season. I expect it to be very physical, very noisy, a bit back and forth, and I expect the Skynards to emerge victorious. I hope they're also healthy.
Redskins over Steelers, 27-17

I said I'd do rankings today, but instead, I'm going to have a three-post week and do 'em tomorrow. Eat it!

Go Skynards!