Week 10 Picks

I don't know how they do it, but week in and week out, the NFL makes it hard for me to just pick a heavy slate of home teams and be done with it. Again, in week 10, there's a handful of road teams who I just like better and just are better than their opponent. I managed to sneak by with a 9-5 record in week 9, but this heavy reliance on road teams is giving me heartburn.

Here we go!

Denver @ Cleveland
The Line: Cleveland by 3
Cleveland's not much of a team. Denver's definitely not much of a team. Denver doesn't travel well and they have no defense. Cleveland has a new quarterback making his first NFL start. Toss up?

Bold prediction here: Brady Quinn is going to look awesome on Sunday. Not just because Denver's defense is atrocious, either. He's playing at home in his home state, he's a sharp kid, he's got a lot of talent around him, and the Browns aren't going to put him in a lot of bad situations. Frankly, I think he's going to be an improvement over Derek Anderson for the rest of the season.

As for Denver, I don't know what to make of this team or it's chances to win. I just know I can't pick them on the road. At this point, I'd be reluctant to pick them at home. They burned me in week 9 when my confidence on them was already critically low. Would it shock me to death if they pulled off a win here, looked great on offense, put up some big numbers? Not really. I just can't pick it that way.
Browns over Broncos, 22-17

New Orleans @ Atlanta
The Line: Atlanta by 1
As John McCain might say, "This, my friends, is a great match-up".

New Orleans has had two weeks to prepare for this, they deserved it, and I think they needed it. They deserved it because they had the London "home game" atrocity. They needed it because Atlanta is hotter than hell right now and a monster at home. I'm having a very hard time imagining how this game will go down.

This much is certain: New Orleans is desperately in need of this victory. They've done a lot of farting around at the bottom of the NFC South and the middle of the NFC, but they're supposed to make a move here. They've dropped two killer division games already, they can't at all afford to drop a game below .500 by losing their third straight division game. Not this late in the season. You could call it a desperation game for the Saints. I expect them to come out blazing.

And here's a good test for the young Falcons. They're about to get a tough challenge at home by a veteran division foe. That's a hurdle. They've also got an opportunity to dig a rusty blade into the belly of a wounded opponent, and that's another hurdle for a wannabe contender. They can either step down on New Orleans' throat or they can let 'em off the mat. I don't know about anybody else, but I'm ready to be done with the Saints in 2008. They're 0-3 on the road, they've got the worst defense by far in their division, and they've pooped away a series of winnable games already this season, to say nothing of the brutal bludgeoning they took from the Panthers in Carolina. Cast 'em out, I say. Here's hoping the Falcons take care of business. Either way, it should be fun. I've gotta say, I'm kinda loving the NFC South this season (except those friggin' Bucs).
Falcons over Saints, 29-28

Tennessee @ Chicago
The Line: Tennessee by 3
Truth be told, I kinda love this match-up. I'm not sure where exactly Chicago is supposed to find any offense, and I'm not exactly sure how they're supposed to avoid turning the ball over, but I'm fascinated to find out.

Just like last week, I'm giving a tough NFC North team a chance against the big bad Titans. Tennessee is so sharp, so professional, so tough, it's hard to imagine a banged up Bears team with Rex Grossman under center holding them off. Still, I have a feeling Chicago had trouble with Detroit because they were looking ahead at this one. I think they're a lot better than we saw in week 9, and I think, if nothing else, they won't lie down for a minute. If we've learned nothing else about Lovie Smith's Chicago Bears in the last few seasons, we've at least learned his teams fight like hell. The good news here is the Titans are almost the exact same team; toughness takes them a long way and what they lack in offensive explosiveness, they make up for with dominating defense and scrappy play-making.

I'm going to go way out on a limb here and take the home dog, even with Rex Grossman under center. There's a high, high probability I'll feel desperately stupid about this pick come Sunday night, but for now, I think the match-up is within maybe 7 points to begin with, and I like Chicago's homefield advantage. I especially like Chicago's homefield advantage in the second of back-to-back home games, this one against the stronger of the two opponents. Chicago's fighting for something this season, maybe even the division, so I expect a hell of a battle.
Bears over Titans, 17-16

Jacksonville @ Detroit
The Line: Jacksonville by 6.5
I'm not sure why Jacksonville, losers of two straight against abysmal AFC South bottom-dwellers, is favored to win by nearly a touchdown in any road game against any team not from Oakland. I mean, Detroit's garbage, but they aren't Oakland. We may be whores, but we ain't horses.

After all, didn't Jacksonville just lose to a winless Bengals team in Cincinnati?

I have a feeling this would be the end of someone's tenure in Jacksonville if the Jaguars were to lose this game. Maybe not Jack Del Rio, but someone. You don't come out of your bye and lose three straight to teams with a combined 2-19 record without putting a noose around somebody's neck. Anybody. Anybody! Maybe that threat alone is enough to push Jacksonville to victory. God knows it won't take much against this friggin' Lions disaster.

On the other hand, Detroit is the last team in the NFL without a win, and they've been better in each of their past three games. Calvin Johnson is a real difference maker. One interesting variable here will be whether or not Detroit turns over the starting quarterback position right away to Daunte Culpepper. On the one hand, Culpepper should absolutely be starting for the Lions, I'm just not sure it should happen this quickly. Culpepper can be turnover prone even at his best, I'm not sure it's a good idea to stick him back there behind that awful offensive line with only a limited understanding of the offense. Detroit has no running game, no defense, and a bad offensive line. You couldn't sell me on the idea of putting a turnover-prone quarterback with less than a full week in the NFL this season under center against just about anybody. Jacksonville's defense may not be what it was, but . . . well . . . they ain't exactly horses either, now are they?

I don't know. It's hard for me to pick Detroit. Jacksonville isn't exactly setting my heart a-flutter, but I have a hard time picking them to lose three straight, too. I guess I'm going with the road team. At least they're favored.
Jaguars over Lions, 24-20

Baltimore @ Houston
The Line: Baltimore by 1
That's an interesting line to me. On neutral territory, I'd pick Houston, even with Sage Rosenfels under center. First of all, Rosenfels isn't much of a step down from Matt Schaub in terms of moving the ball and scoring points. He turns the ball over and made some incredibly stupid, embarrassing plays earlier this season, but he can get the engine going, too. In Baltimore, I'd definitely like the Ravens in a 1 pm game; Houston's doing the dreaded west-to-east, and they're not great away from home. In Houston, however, I don't know, I have a hard time reasoning this one. Baltimore's pass defense isn't terrible, but their secondary (especially the corners) isn't special and Houston's passing attack is formidable. I also like the way Houston plays at home and the home crowd has proven to be pretty enthusiastic. Baltimore by 1? Really?

No, I don't see it that way. I see Flacco under pressure when he passes, I see Houston moving the ball in the air, and I see this one being close enough that the home field advantage ends up providing the edge. Gimme Houston.
Texans over Ravens, 20-16

Seattle @ Miami
The Line: Miami by 2
Again, by 2? Really? Seattle can't actually travel farther than this and still be in the United States, doesn't Vegas realize that? This is a 1pm game, Seattle is literally traveling as far as they possible can to play inside the country, and Miami is only giving 2 points? Seattle gets thumped at home in week 9, Miami dumps the Broncos in Denver, and the following week Seattle is supposed to hang around and make it close a million miles from home? What?! Has the whole world gone crazy?

No, no way Seattle musters up much here. Miami is tough, man, and even if their offense doesn't do much, no fucking way Seattle musters up an attack. Miami's defense is going to make lunch meat out of those groggy sons-of-bitches.
Dolphins over Seahawks, 21-13

Green Bay @ Minnesota
The Line: Minnesota by 2
A big time division match-up here in the North. This is the season for one of these two teams. Minnesota has already played a couple of "this is our season, boys" games already in 2008. Green Bay was within a coin flip of not really needing this to even be a "this is our season" type game, but such is the nature of things.

When these two teams met earlier in the season, in Aaron Rodgers' first game as the starting quarterback, in Green Bay, the Packers squeezed by the Vikings late, ultimately winning by 5. The other thing: Tarvaris Jackson was under center for the Vikings. Now, lately Gus Frerotte hasn't been a whole lot better than what they were getting from Jackson, except that, in typical Frerotte fashion, he's been hitting on a good number of deep balls. That explosive side of Minnesota's offense could be a concern for Green Bay.

And this is the second straight road game for the Packers, never a good sign. Ruh-roh . . .

But, BUT, the Packers are about as healthy as they've been all season, and they put up a pretty impressive defensive performance of their own in week 9 against the Titans. So here's the thing: I think Aaron Rodgers' progression in Green Bay's offense is more significant than Gus Frerotte's play under center for the Vikings. I also think Green Bay is more talented on offense and just as good on defense (when fully healthy). I think the homefield means a lot for Minnesota.

On a neutral site, I'd definitely pick the Packers. By how much? Maybe a touchdown. So how much is the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome worth to the Vikings? Well, whatever it's worth in any other game, it's almost certainly worth more in a division game against the hated Packers. So far, Minnesota has one good home win this season, a 20-10 job over Carolina. Other than that, it was a discouraging 3-point choke job loss to the Colts, a discouraging 2-point bullshit win over the Lions, and a herky-jerky performance in a 7-point win over the Texans. Hmmmmmm . . .

Okay, plus, I want Green Bay to win.

Shoot.

Well, gotta go with my gut. Here's hoping it's my gut!
Packers over Vikings, 27-17

Buffalo @ New England
The Line: New England by 3.5
Two things I'm sure of: 1. the Bills are shitting themselves; 2. the Patriots know it.

This one, too, is the whole season for one of these teams, but in this case, only one. If the Bills lose, they're done. Not because they can't make a season out of it, not because it's impossible for them to struggle back, win the remainder of their division schedule, and take a playoff berth in the sluggish AFC. But I can't expect them to recover from this kind of mid season groin kick. A 4-0 start that became 5-4 with 3 straight division losses, that's hideous. And I do think they'll lose. In fact, at this point, I'll be hugely impressed and very surprised if they do win.

On the other hand, though, it's not exactly like the Patriots have been blowing anybody's hair back. There's virtually nothing to be afraid of on this Patriots roster. Now that their behind the scenes advantages have been neutralized, it couldn't be more plain how few on the field advantages they actually have. Matt Cassel is up and down, the running game is inconsistent at best, and their defense is still old and slow. Buffalo could win this game. But just like the chances of them reversing the direction of their season if they lose, it'll be a long shot for them to go into New England and get a win, even against this Patriots team. I can't pick it that way. I will be rooting for the Bills, I still like the Bills, I just no longer believe in 'em.
Patriots over Bills, 23-17

St. Louis @ New York Jets
The Line: New York Jets by 8
I friggin' hate the Jets. I will be rooting very, very hard for the Rams.

I don't know how they can pull it off. Actually, wait, I know exactly how. They just need to put consistent pressure on Brett Favre and play their secondary as far from the line of scrimmage as possible. Favre gets so frustrated and goes scattershot so badly when teams hit him consistently and take away the big play. He's been trying to self-destruct for weeks now, he badly wants to self-destruct. St. Louis might actually benefit from getting away from home for a week. They took a bad booing at home in week 9.

New York's run defense has been consistently strong all season, so we'll have to see if Steven Jackson can make any headway in there. It'll also be interesting to see if St. Louis can get another big play or two from their younger receivers.

Okay, I'm dragging this out. You don't care about this game, I don't either.
Jets over Rams, 29-20

Carolina @ Oakland
The Line: Carolina by 9
Oakland can't possibly play worse than they played against the Falcons, right? Except, ummm, uh oh, the Panthers are better defensively than the Falcons, they've had two weeks to prepare, and, ummmm, the Raiders can't have even an ounce of confidence in anything they want to do anymore.

Oakland had -2 yards of total offense by halftime against the Falcons. I'm not kidding, here, Oakland could very easily finish this game with negative yardage. I'm picking a huge, huge blowout. Oakland might be the first team ever in any sport to fire two coaches in 10 games.
Panthers over Raiders, 35-6

Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh by 3.5
Those poor Colts, they're in no position to string something together. On the other hand, they did it to themselves, didn't they? They opened the season with a slew of winnable games, and one after another they crapped the opportunities away. Now they need a big upset in Pittsburgh to avoid falling right back to the edge of the abyss. By the by, that 3.5 line is teetering in the middle of a sea-saw right now. If Ben Roethlisberger is healthy, it will move one way. If he can't play, it will move the other. Officially, that line is based on the lack of knowledge about his status.

The Colts are the only team this season that really did anything noteworthy against Baltimore's feisty 3-4. That was in Indianapolis, but it's about the only goddamn hope in hell they have in this one. That and maybe the fact that Pittsburgh just played two tough as shit NFC East opponents and those poor bastards are probably exhausted. By the way, now that I think about it, wasn't that the biggest regular season win in Mike Tomlin's career as a head coach? Last season, the Steelers were doo-doo on the road against tough competition. This season, they dumped two NFC East games. In a must win contest, on the road against a very competent Redskins team, in spite of an injury to their franchise, Super Bowl winning quarterback, they pulled away in the second half and stayed dominant in their division. That was a huge fuckin' win for them!

Hey, anyway, maybe they're drained. It's the only hope for the sad-sack Colts. If they have a run in them at all, it starts here. They got a big ugly home win in week 9, now they're going to the belly of the beast to (hopefully) upset a (hopefully) tired, (hopefully) banged up Steelers team. The chances are thin.
Steelers over Colts, 23-20

Kansas City @ San Diego
The Line: San Diego by 15
Fucking goddamn Chargers. 15 points? You mean to tell me a 3-5 team gets 15 points over a division rival that just played a second straight highly competitive game? Holy crap, what the hell do I know about anything.

Know what? Just for the sheer fuck of it, I'm picking the horrid, horrendous Chiefs (no I'm not). Know why? Because a man has to believe in something, okay (yes, it's called reason)? A man has to take a stand sometimes (no he doesn't), a man has to say "I know what's right, and I'm standing for it" (bullshit).

I'm (not) picking the Chiefs because they're (not) goddamn honest to goodness fighters. They have (probably not) seen this line, and they're (probably not) insulted by it. As (wo)men, it burns them to be underestimated (or estimated at all, for that matter). The Chiefs are ready to make a statement (of surrender), and I'm (not) going to stand there beside them (not in a million years). I've had enough of this shit (there's truth there), and I'm not (not) going to take it anymore!
Ch(argers)iefs over Ch(iefs)argers, 31-20

New York Giants @ Philadelphia
The Line: Philly by . . . .wh-wh-what? Wait, wait, stop everything.

Giants: 7-1. NFL's 5th best Offense and 2nd best Rush Offense. NFL's 3rd best Defense and 2nd against the Pass. Reigning Super Bowl Champions. In 2007, the Giants went 2-0 against the Eagles, held Donovan McNabb to 317 total passing yards, 1 touchdown, 3 fumbles, and sacked him a disgusting 15 times.

Philly: 5-3. Already lost 2 NFC East games, including a home game to Washington. 3 of 5 wins came against NFC West. In 2007, the Giants went 2-0 against the Eagles, held Donovan McNabb to 317 total passing yards, 1 touchdown, 3 fumbles, and sacked him a disgusting 15 times.

Okay, so, let's get back to that line, because clearly something was off there. Now that we've cleared all that up . . .

The Line: New York by . . . . wait . . . you're serious! Ummmm, wow! Am I missing something? Really? You saw the bit about the 15 sacks, right? 15 sacks, man. You know that was in 2 games right? Not 5 games, 2 games. Hmmm. Hey, you're the boss.

The Line: (deep breath) Philly (yes, Philly) by 3

Nope. Giants win! Giants win! Giants win!

Actually, I do give Philly a chance in hell here. They're healthy and explosive, and they could very well turn the tables and sack the holy shit-balls out of Eli Manning. Still, New York's the better team and I'm takin' 'em.
Giants over Eagles, 24-21

San Francisco @ Arizona
The Line: Arizona by 9.5
This should be a one-sided obliteration. I am kinda interested to see what antics we might see from Mike Singletary in this one, though. I'm having two animated sitcom flashbacks here, so hang with me:

Remember the softball championships episode of the Simpsons? Remember when Mr. Burns stupidly took Darryl Strawberry out of the game because he wanted the right/lefty match-up with the game on the line, and he put Homer in instead? He goes through this prolongued explanation of all the potential signals from the third base coach, and Homer totally zones out. Then, later, Homer looks over at Burns on the third base line and Burns is spazzing out, wiggling his hips, jamming his finger up his nose, sticking his tongue out, in an absurd attempt to signal something to Homer in the batters box.

Anyway, this is a wierd stretch, but for some reason, I now picture Mike Singletary this way on the sidelines of 49ers games. He's so desperate to make an impression, he's pulling his pants down, sticking his tongue out, dancing on his toes, pulling ugly faces, only his players are totally zoned and tuning him out. Point is, you save the dramatic shit for after you've built up some credibility in your position. In much the same way that Mr. Burns was ineffectually trying to get complex ideas into Homer's brain after stupidly pulling his best player from the game for questionable reasoning at best, Mike Singletary is trying to get his team to accept a different quarterback and respond to him pulling his pants down after he yanks the only guy on the team who might be remembered for giving a shit in that game. Anyway, I know it was a reach, but it's what came to me.

That, and this:

In Futurama, when Leela gets to play for the New New York Mets as a publicity stunt because she's got one eye and has an uncanny knack for beaning the shit out of opposing batters, her coach benches her because he actually cares about winning a game. When they get to the last inning of the last game and the clown (literally, a clown) playing second base fucks up a routine ground ball by throwing a pie in the face of the first baseman, he needs someone to get the final out. In the end, he throws Leela in there because, even though she's garbage, he's out of other options and clutching at straws. And though Leela pitches better than she's ever pitched before, on her third (yes, third) pitch of the game she gives up the game winning grand slam.

Shaun Hill, you're Leela. Mike Singletary, you're the coach. J. T. O'Sullivan, you're the clown.

Cardinals win! Cardinals win! Cardinals win!
Cardinals over 49ers, 34-13

No Skins this week. I probably won't pay a whole lot of attention, which is a good thing. I could use a week away from football. Though it's been fun, this has been a stressful football season so far.