Week 12 Picks

Here we go!

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh by 11
I don't see how Cincinnati could possibly lose this game (whoa, I almost posted this entry that way! Can you imagine? "I don't see how Cincinnati could possibly lose this game?" Are you kidding me? I think we both know I meant the other thing). Pittsburgh, under Mike Tomlin, has sometimes had trouble getting up for non-conference road games. They've had no problem whatsoever getting pumped for division road contests, and I expect this one to be a bloodbath because of it. Let's face it, here: if Pittsburgh wants to destroy the Bengals, they will. The Bengals will be powerless to stop them.

The only question, I suppose, is what kind of game it'll be. I find it extremely interesting that this game is getting by far the fewest total points from Vegas, something like 34.5. Is that because the Steelers are going to hang something hideous like a 31-3 on the Bengals? Let's see: 34.5 total points, 11 point margin, that would make it 22-11 or 23-12. I don't know, I see the Steelers putting a lot more than 23 points on the board. I'm looking for a blowout.
Steelers over Bengals, 31-13

Philadelphia @ Baltimore
The Line: Baltimore by 1
And really, who knows? This far into the season, it's still pretty hard to diagnose what kind of offensive performance you're going to get from the Ravens. To their credit, there's at least now the possibility of the Ravens putting a big number on the board, even against a decent defense.

And as for the Eagles, you can't really predict what kind of performance you'll get at all from them, especially on the offensive side of the ball. There's an increasingly likely chance that, in any given week, the Eagles are going to yawn their way through a game. I still don't really expect them to pull that act against as fearsome a defense as the Ravens, but on the other hand, would you necessarily even notice against this team? I mean, the Eagles could very well come out frothing at the mouth on offense and still not do a damn thing in this game. Let's face it: Philadelphia's offense isn't very special this season. They have no backfield depth, their receiving corps still isnt' worth a damn, and their quarterback has taken the concept of starting slow to previously unexplored depths. I'm not impressed at all by Philly's offense. In fact, I'm bumping every single one of their offensive players down a few notches (even Brian Westbrook) until they actually earn the label of "dangerous". For now, they're a bunch of strutting peacocks.

And because the Ravens could conceivably win this game even if Philly's offense shows up, I'm giving them the nod. I can't pick a team based on the possibility that they'll actually have a pulse on Sunday, especially not on the road. So there.
Ravens over Eagles, 20-17

New York Jets @ Tennessee
The Line: Tennessee by 5.5
Make no mistake about it, the Jets could win this game. And it pisses me off.

See, I gave the Packers a chance over the Titans in week 9 in Tennessee. They came close. I gave the Bears a chance in Chicago, to no avail. I picked the goddamn Jaguars over the Titans in Jacksonville in week 11. After they failed, I swore not to pick against the Titans again this season. Now we've got the goddamn contemptible Jets, riding a big win streak, headed into Tennessee with a stout run defense and a fluky big play tendency on offense, and I have that motherfucking feeling. I'm sick about it.

And here's the thing: if the Jets win this game, there will be no end to the gay orgasm the national sports media has over Brett Favre's "legend". And then I won't just be sick about it, I'll be literally sick about it.

I've got to believe the Titans will find a way. For a 10-0 team, this is what passes for a big game: hosting another division leader in week 12 with an opportunity to stomp their way that much closer to homefield throughout the AFC playoffs. And legitimacy is on the line, too! And pride, right?

C'mon, Titans. You won when I didn't pick you, I've come around, don't let me down.
Titans over Jets, 17-16

Tampa Bay @ Detroit
The Line: Tampa Bay by 8.5
Funny how I still haven't gotten to the point where I want to say the Lions will win a game this season. I don't know, man, I don't put it past them to go winless in 2008. They stink. Nothing is on the line. They've got nothing to lose, and at this point, they really have nothing to win, either. If you work for the Lions, the one reason to not toss yourself off a tall building might be the current state of the Oakland Raiders. If not for the Raiders, who have sunk to such incredible depths of dysfunction as an organization, this decade of Lions football would almost certainly be remembered as the worst of any team in NFL history. And it's still worse than Oakland's decade, but Oakland is in such once-in-a-lifetime bad shape, they almost make the Lions seem like a credible NFL franchise by comparison.

Detroit will need some big, big plays to shock the world and upset Tampa Bay. There's always the possibility that Tampa comes out flat and sleepwalks through a portion of this game, and if Detroit strikes early and often before Tampa recovers, they could conceivably make it a contest. I seriously doubt that will happen, but I have no faith in the Bucs or their crappy offense, so I guess I wouldn't be totally shocked to see the Lions pull the upset. You're crazy if you think I'm picking it that way.
Bucs over Lions, 21-7

Minnesota @ Jacksonville
The Line: Jacksonville by 2
Seriously, who knows.

Flip a coin. Which team is going to play like autistic paraplegics? Which team is going to suddenly and inexplicably abandon the run and go bomb-crazy? Which team will find a way to shoot itself not just in the foot, but in the knees and the groin?

These are two incompetent, poorly coached teams, make no mistake about it. Neither team has excuse one for being as mediocre as they are. Both teams have been as healthy as anybody, both teams have mostly the same cast of characters as last season (or better), both teams have relatively stable coaching staffs. Why do they suck? Why are they stuck in the middle of the NFL, puzzling their fans and frustrating the shit out of pick-making bloggers everywhere? Because they have terrible head-coaches who refuse to allow their offenses to establish an identity and constantly undermine their players.

How do you pick a game like this? It's like watching Dopey fight Dopey for the middleweight championship of the world: someone's going to win, only once it's over we won't know how they won, only how the other guys lost, and we won't know what it means for their next opponent. I get depressed even thinking about it.

So I'm giving a few points to the home team.
Jaguars over Vikings, 21-19

Buffalo @ Kansas City
The Line: Buffalo by 3
Friggin' Bills. Has any team gone from conference contender to all-but-officially eliminated from post-season contention in such short order? And is there any chance in hell the Bills swing this thing the other way? I say hell no.

The Bills need this win, they need it very badly. No matter how their season has swung, they're still so much better than the Chiefs. At every possible position, the Bills are superior. There's not an individual match-up the Bills shouldn't dominate. Ultimately, do the Bills still give themselves a chance? Are they still fighting for something? Because it'd be a very strong, very bad indictment of Dick Jauron if the Bills come out flat and manage to lose this game. So far, you could say the Bills have only lost to teams in their same tier; even the Browns have a lot of good players. A loss to the Chiefs is a horse of a different color.

So in a sense, this game is like a life raft and a microphone for the 2008 Buffalo Bills. Take care of business, and you're back above water, still looking at long odds, but continuing the struggle. Lose, and you've said a mouthful.

And as for the Chiefs, look, this is what you play for when you're absolute garbage and your coaching staff and front-office gave up on your season two months before it even started. The Bills are a struggling wannabe contender from a real NFL division: spoil 'em! Ruin their hopes! Schadenfreude, bitches!

There's only one team in this game I'm willing to pick in any game for the rest of the 2008 season. If they lose, there'll be two.
Bills over Chiefs, 23-20

Chicago @ St. Louis
The Line: Chicago by 8.5
Honestly, I don't give the Rams much of a chance, here. St. Louis is just awful. It's possible they're playing as bad today as they were the week Scott Linehan was fired. How does Jim Haslett feel about that "win 6 games and you're in" clause now? Maybe you could have talked 'em down to 4? 4 wins with this pile of shit is nothing to sneeze at!

If I'm Lovie Smith, I'm bundling the offense up and piling it on Matt Forte's back this Sunday. Kyle Orton looked like pissed on dog-shit last Sunday. Maybe he's healthy, maybe he's not. I know this much: quarterbacking had better not torpedo Chicago's season in 2008, or that might be it for Lovie Smith in Chicago. The Bears need to get back on track. They need to get rid of the taste from week 11. They need a win. This should be an easy win. Don't piss it away trying to get your quarterback back into a rhythm. Cram your ground game up the Rams' ass, knock Marc Bulger around, take the win.

And that's just what they'll do.
Bears over Rams, 20-14

New England @ Miami
The Line: Miami by 1
I honestly don't know how to call this game. I really don't. I feel like it's fair to point out, however, that though the Patriots will likely have something up their sleeves to account for the Wildcat, it wasn't the Wildcat that held the Pats offense to 13 points in New England last time these two teams met.

So I don't suppose it really even matters whether or not New England knows what to do with the Wildcat. Suppose they do. They've got bigger, badder fish to fry, because it's also extremely likely that Miami will have a wrinkle or two in their own defense to throw at the Patriots.

I don't think that earlier result was a fluke at all, either. I think the Miami Dolphins are a score or two better than New England, I really do. On the other hand, I have a hard time picking against the Patriots in any rematch, hence my confusion over this pick. I mean, last season these teams were at the extreme opposite ends of the whole "success" spectrum. How does a 1-15 team sweep the season series from a 16-0 team only one year later? Is that possible?

I really am having a hard time with this. Just when I start to settle on the Patriots, I suddenly have a very hard time picturing Matt Cassel getting the job done in Miami. I guess that's my problem: I want to pick the Pats, but I don't know how they'd do it. I think I know how Miami will do it, but I'm obviously not totally sold on them. Shoot.

Well, I guess you have to go with something that makes sense, and 38-13 is pretty damn convincing. Dolphins win! Dolphins win! Dolphins win!
Dolphins over Patriots, 27-17

San Franciso @ Dallas
The Line: Dallas by 10
I just love how gay the whole world is for this Dallas team. The second biggest spread of the week, over a team that just won by 19 points. Denver's favored by 9.5 at home over a team that has scored 1 touchdown in 5 games, and the Cowboys are favored by 10 at home over a team coming off a 35-point explosion. Interesting. Both Denver and Dallas are 6-4. Oakland is one of the worst teams in the history of football. San Francisco is bad, but . . . well, to recycle a joke I used a few weeks ago, they ain't horses. They may be whores, but they ain't horses.

Realistically, though, the Cowboys probably will beat up the Niners pretty good.

I guess you know who I'll be rooting for.
Cowboys over 49ers, 29-16

Houston @ Cleveland
The Line: Cleveland by 3
I'm pretty grossed out by this game. I'd rather not talk or think or type about it.

Well, pull up a chair!

Houston needs a pick-me-up. Their 2008 season got off on the way wrong foot, then they had a nice run, just long enough to peek at the wild-card picture, now it's gone totally off the rails. They've had the kind of run in their short existence that can really sour a group of fans. The Texans need to finish this season strong. They owe it to their fans.

As for the Browns, man, is the circus in town or what? Phil Savage is blasting off F-bombs in emails to fans now? What gives? First of all, why in the hell is he even responding to fan-mail? Second of all, man, put a leash on that puppy! F this and F that, your effing season has gone down the effing tubes, you waited too effing long to put your effing draft pick in, now everyone's effing yelling at you like you weren't the effing smart guy who effing picked him up in the effing first place! And you're effing pee-ed off!

This team is nothing if not one big distraction. If it isn't a quarterback controversy, it's a veteran accusing the team of quitting in the media, then the coach using the media to respond to the claim. Or it's the star tight end calling out the organization for not protecting its players from staph infections. Now the coach is having to explain to the media why the general manager is firing off obscenities in written correspondences with fans. Blimey!

I think both teams are about equally talented. Houston might be just slightly sharper and more professional. Cleveland has the home field advantage. What can that be worth, after you blast your fans with foul language? 3 points? 4 points? How much better is Houston? 2 points?

Browns win!
Browns over Texans, 31-27

Oakland @ Denver
The Line: Denver by 9.5
This game may not be meaningless, but I sure as shit don't give a damn.
Broncos over Raiders, 42-20

Carolina @ Atlanta
The Line: Atlanta by 1
What a huge, huge game!

Atlanta needs this game a lot more than Carolina, and they're lucky to have it at home. As wonderful and surprising as this Falcons team is, their playoff hopes could take a significant blow if they drop this one. It's a tight, tough NFC race, and there's a handful of veteran teams struggling along with this rookie group for a pair of wild-card spots.

I guess Atlanta's hopes ride on their ability to get in Jake Delhomme's face and force him into another nugget outing. Seriously, this guy's been dreadful for a few weeks now. He followed up one epic dog-shit performance with a 98-yard rat-puke outing last Sunday. Another performance like that this Sunday will almost certainly be too much for his team to overcome. The Falcons are not the Lions. If Delhomme stinks, the Panthers will lose.

A week ago, I was seduced by Atlanta's strong home record. I gave 'em the nod over Denver, and they burned me for it. This week, I'm having a much harder time giving them the same respect. Carolina would skewer Denver, chew 'em up, shit 'em out, feed the shit to a homeless man, light him on fire, and toss him out of the International Space Station. The Panthers are a different animal altogether. They're not a great team, but they're ferocious on defense and very balanced on offense, and Atlanta will need their A-game, even at home, to have a chance.

Atlanta is probably good for an A performance 4 out of 5 times at home. They didn't have an A performance against the Broncos. They're due, right? Sure! Because that's how statistics work! One coinflip has a direct probability effect on any subsequent coinflip! It's, like, Karma or something, right?

No, seriously, I do think you'll get an A performance from the Falcons. That'll give them a chance. It's a big game, so I like the chances of them getting a boost from their crowd. And I absolutely hate the way Jake Delhomme has been playing lately. I'm going with Atlanta. I don't feel great about it, but there it is.
Falcons over Panthers, 23-20

New York Giants @ Arizona
The Line: New York Giants by 3
What's this? Another huge game? No, really, this is a MONSTER!

Here's why: both of these teams have all but punched their tickets to the post-season. Right now, two games separate them in the standings. Carolina is going to Atlanta, they could lose. It's entirely possible that Arizona could come out of this home game right on New York's heals in the NFC and holding the all important tie-breaker should they finish with the same record atop the NFC. Consider that: this game, right here, could possibly determine where these two teams meet in the NFC Championship. Arizona will not play a more important game this regular season.

I really, really like Arizona's chances. In season's past, I'd expect any NFC West team to fold like an accordian in this match-up, but Arizona plays like friggin' Zeus at home. Kurt Warner is kind of a double-edged sword for them, too: he could very well kill them by going PTSD in the second quarter, but on the other hand, I expect him to give this team it's swagger headed into the game, and that confidence will be everything against a Giants team that spent the entire important part of last season going into other team's stadiums and rocking their worlds en route to the most clutch, unlikely upset in Super Bowl history. I guess what I'm saying is, the Giants will not be afraid of Arizona's home-field, they will not be discouraged if the Cardinals come out quickly, and there's no chance they play flat, get away from their game-plan, or implode because they're intimidated. There's always a chance the Giants will implode, but it will have nothing to do with Arizona. In all likelihood, the only way the Cardinals win this game is if they play the best game they've played all season.

And as for the Giants, barring the possibility of an unprovoked implosion, I suppose the formula is simple: run the hell out of the ball, keep a close eye on Adrian Wilson, pressure the be-Jesus out of Kurt Warner. It looks so simple, I'm very, very tempted to pick the G-Men.

I might have even talked myself into it.

On the other hand, I'm loathe to pick against the 7-3 Cardinals in Arizona, where they've been flat-out great this season.

The only kind of game the Cardinals probably can't win is a low-scoring trench-battle. New York's offensive and defensive lines are significantly better than Arizona's, that class will show up over the course of a full game. If it goes high-scoring, I could see Arizona winning. But New York could also win a shoot out.

There it is, the whole rationale for picking the Giants. Or, part two, anyway.

New York's formula is simpler, and they could win this game almost no matter what tempo it's played at. Therefore . . .
Giants over Cardinals, 34-24

Washington @ Seattle
The Line: Washington by 3.5
This is really just a continuation of my recap from week 11.

It's clear to me now that the Redskins really need a big-time upgrade at defensive end. It couldn't have been more plain against the Cowboys. Dallas didn't run between the tackles until their 12th running play, and they ran a total of 20 times outside the tackles to only 7 times between them. Simply put, Andre Carter and Jason Taylor cannot both rush the passer and defend the run. That means something even more distressing, namely that Carter and Taylor can neither rush the passer nor defend the run. At least in Carter's case, he's a high-motor player who knows the system. I'm still trying to talk myself into the Jason Taylor trade, and it's been a few months, and it's getting harder every week.

Still, I've gotta like Washington's chances against the Seahawks. The Skins are getting healthier, this is a must-win game, Seattle is bad, and former assistants almost always do better against their former bosses than those bosses do against their former assistants. Of course, I don't have any stats to back that up, but it makes sense, right? How in the hell would Mike Holmgren know Jim Zorn's playcalling style? How would he know what the inherent weaknesses of a Jim Zorn coached team are? But flip it around, Jim Zorn has been at Holmgren's right hand for 9 years, watching him actually call plays and actually coach guys and actually gameplan and scheme to his own ideal. It makes sense, right?

Look, no way I'm not taking the Redskins. There's no part of the Seahawks I'm afraid of. I'm even less afraid of them with Matt Hasselbeck's corpse under center than I was with Seneca Wallace, who has honest to goodness legs and a backbone with no elbows in it.

And you know what? I don't care if they look good! All I care about is enjoying watching my goddamn team on Sunday, and rooting for them to win. They've got a chance, I think they'll win, and if they do, it'll count just the same as whatever shallacking the Cowboys lay on the Niners.
Redskins over Seahawks, 21-16

Indianapolis @ San Diego
The Line: San Diego by 3
Hey, anybody else forget it was San Diego that lost in that shitfest in Pittsburgh last Sunday? God, you'd think the Steelers lost the game with as much attention as that final play is getting. Why isn't anyone talking about the fact that the "deep", "explosive", "dominating" San Diego offense lost a game in which their shit-ass defense held the goddamn Pittsburgh Steelers to only 11 points in Pittsburgh? The friggin' Redskins got effing SKEWERED for only putting up six against the Steelers, and they've got a new offensive system, a rookie head coach, and had an injured tailback, number one receiver, and left tackle on the field. What's San Diego's excuse? Why aren't they getting their shit owned by the national sports media? Oh, right, because San Diego has already been given a pass for 2008.

I really hope Indianapolis wins this game. We'll see.
Chargers over Colts, 24-23

Green Bay @ New Orleans
The Line: New Orleans by 2.5
I'm already sick of one of these teams. I'll be absolutely disgusted by both of them if the Packers don't pull this off. I'm sick of them dancing around the outside of the pack. Get in or get the fuck out already!

If New Orleans wins, I'm not putting any energy into any picks or recaps involving either of these teams again this season, not until one of them has at least a game lead in their division. I'm sick of the middling bullshit. Step up, for crying out loud!
Packers over Saints, 34-23

I might come back and post another NFL related thing this week, since I didn't do any rankings or anything else. We'll see!

Go Skynards!