Is it too late to wuss out on my picks?

The Ramblings of a Mad-Man!

I really think the Green Bay/Minnesota game comes down to turnovers. For whatever reason, I’m not ready to stick a fork in the Vikings just yet. They were a really tough team last year, and I believe in Brad Childress, so I expect them to play every opponent tough. This is a dome game, and Brett Favre has played poorly indoors for stretches of his career. The Vikings are a stout run defense with a good pass-rush, and because the Packers pose no threat on the ground, I imagine the Vikings will leave their safeties over the top and press Green Bay’s receivers to disrupt the quick passing game, knowing that Favre has been successful throwing short and playing conservative through 3 games. Though they rank just 11th in the NFL in total defense, the Vikings have been stuffing the run to the tune of just 67 ypg, and without a stud running back to challenge them, I expect the Packers to continue to use the shotgun spread formation as their base. Minnesota rang up 6 sacks and 2 interceptions against the woeful Falcons in week 1, when Joey Harrington was forced to throw 32 times, then 3 picks and 4 sacks against the pass-happy Lions in week 2, when Kitna and O’Sullivan combined to throw 56 times. In week 3 against the Chiefs, they had 1 sack and 0 interceptions, in no small part because the Chiefs pounded the ball 31 times to only 29 pass attempts. The blueprint is there for keeping the formidable Minnesota pass rush at bay, but the Packers simply do not have the weapons.

On the other hand, Minnesota will really struggle to pass the ball. The Vikings would be lucky to assemble much of an aerial attack against a good high-school squad, much less against an above-average NFL defense. Minnesota, too, will be looking to pound the ball, but will likewise be running into a very stout defensive front, one that held Brian Westbrook to 85 yards, the Giants to 94 yards, and Ladainian Tomlinson to 62 yards on 22 carries. If the Vikings are forced to throw the ball, which they likely will be, they could be in for a long night. Vikings quarterbacks have tossed 6 interceptions in 3 games, despite only attempting 89 passes, which puts them near the bottom of the league in attempts.

Then there’s the obvious: Green Bay is undefeated and has an all-time great veteran quarterback at the helm, while Minnesota is 1-2, has a huge question-mark at quarterback, and suffered a tough loss to the lowly Kansas City Chiefs last week. I picked Green Bay by 11 in Minnesota, I’m sticking by it.

Who knows how to call the awful match-up between Oakland and Miami? These are two pretty horrid teams, with anemic offenses and underperforming defenses. Neither team has gotten consistent play from the quarterback position, but Oakland has been able to generate a solid ground game, whereas Miami has only just started to get anything from Ronnie Brown, who racked up 200 yards of offense against the Jets. Miami hasn’t been able to stop the run, but their rush defense has improved each week since giving up 191 yards on the ground in week 1 against Washington. Oakland, on the other hand, has been up and down, holding Detroit to 108 rushing yards in week 1 and Cleveland to only 88 yards in week 3, sandwiched around 181 yards on the ground against Denver. I think this game comes down to field position, because I don’t think either team will be able to put together too many sustained drives. Oakland has 5 picks, 8 forced fumbles, and 9 sacks through 3 weeks, whereas Miami has 5 picks, 1 forced fumble and only 5 sacks. Oakland also leads the league in average kick return and has a score, and they are tied for second in the NFL is yards per punt. Their special teams play has been terrific. Lest we forget, Oakland ought to be 2-1 right now. Come to think of it, Lane Kiffin is a hell of a coach.

I picked Miami at home by 3. Now I’m not so sure. This would be a big win for Oakland, and they might have the stuff to pull it off.

There’s almost no reason to pick the Bills against the Jets. They’re missing three defensive starters and their quarterback, and they have really struggled on both sides of the ball this season. The only way I see them pulling this one off is if they play out of their minds on defense, win the turnover battle, get a big special teams play or a defensive touchdown, and keep Trent Edwards looking at short fields and third and short situations. The Jets have not been especially great in any facet of the game, but they played Baltimore tough and put up a lot of points in their win against Miami. I expect Thomas Jones to have another big game. I also think Marshawn Lynch could have a big game, especially after Ronnie Brown showed that a back that is involved in the passing game can have great success against the Jets. I would also think that, given the terrible start to their season, the Bills will pull out all the stops in this division home game. Lee Evans has struggled to get going; I’d expect them to go to the receiver screen in this game, or use other quick hitters to get him the ball early. I’d expect screen plays and shovel passes to Lynch, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a few gadget plays. Jericho Cotchery has looked great for the Jets, and Pennington had a nice game against the Dolphins. I really think Chad is playing for his job each week at this point, but that’s not much of a change for him. He always seems to perform better when he’s looking over his shoulder, so I expect the Jets to take advantage of the opportunity to pick up a win and move back to .500 against a depleted opponent.

The Bills started the season with high hopes for their young team, and week after week their situation has looked worse and worse. I picked the Jets by 18 points, and I still think it’d take a great effort from the Bills to make it any closer.

I’m convinced the Houston at Atlanta match-up is one of the more difficult to call this week. Houston has played great through the first 3 weeks, but with their injuries on the offensive side of the ball, they are quickly becoming a below-average offensive team. On the other hand, the Falcons, still probably the worst team in the NFL, seem to be hitting their stride on offense. Joey Harrington put up big numbers last week against a fairly strong Panthers defense. This is such an important game for both teams. The Falcons have to be encouraged after they successfully moved the ball and scored on Sunday, and the Texans really need to rebound from their tough loss to Indianapolis. On paper, this would seem to be the perfect opponent for them to get healthy against. Atlanta has battled inconsistency on both sides of the ball, they’ve really struggled to protect the quarterback, and their highly touted running game has yet to really get it going. On the other hand, Houston has a banged up backfield, and Atlanta is the NFL’s 8th ranked pass defense. I think this one comes down to, of all things, the running game. I think Matt Schaub is really going to need the running game to keep the Falcons from throwing the kitchen sink at him. I think the same is true for Joey Harrington. Atlanta is 29th in the NFL with less than 90 ypg on the ground. There is probably an element of baloney to that statistic, in that Atlanta has been playing from behind in most of their games, but in order for them to win, I think they need to run the ball successfully. Because Kubiak is a mastermind of the running game and the Texans have enough of a consistent passing attack to discourage Atlanta from loading the box, I expect that Houston will be able to establish the ground game first. Despite his success against Carolina, I would still expect the Texans to take the approach of making Joey Harrington win the game with his arm.

The rest is simple: the Texans are 2-1, with a very solid showing against the reigning Super Bowl champs, and the Falcons are in relative disarray. I picked Houston by a touchdown, and I feel pretty good about it.

It’s entirely possible I crapped the bed with my Shikakka/Dett-roit pick. Maybe I was seduced by the fact that the Bears played in the Super Bowl last season. Perhaps I still can’t buy the idea of a Matt Millen-run, John Kitna-quarterbacked Detroit Lions team being pick-worthy, certainly not against the reigning NFC champions. When I look at it, I’m really having second thoughts, especially in Detroit. Frankly, I’m concerned the whole thing is a typo. This one will be decided by how Chicago performs. It’s strange to me to say that one knows what to expect from the Detroit Lions, but the Chicago Bears are the unknown, but I think it’s true. The Lions will throw the ball, early and often. They will not play great defense. There you have it. Chicago, on the other hand, is a bundle of unknowns. Will Brian Griese be able to move the ball through the air? Which Cedric Benson will show up? The guy who went for 2.2 yards per carry in week 1 and 2.9 yards per carry in week 3, or the other guy, who went for 101 yards and 4.2 yards per carry in week 2, against an otherwise stout Kansas City defense? Is this the same Bears defense from 2006, or is it the group that got shredded by Dallas on Monday Night Football, to the tune of 34 points? Detroit can really dial it up, and if the wrong Chicago group shows up, this could be a shoot-out, and it’s probable that Chicago doesn’t have the weapons to win a shoot-out. Chicago also has a number of big injuries on their defense, including Tommy Harris and Lance Briggs. On the other hand, this is Detroit we’re talking about. Boy did Philly get healthy last week against Detroit. McNabb went from washed up to President in two quarters. And lest we forget, the Bears were picked by many to win the NFC North and play for the NFC championship. I don’t know, this one’s tough. Like I said, I think it comes down to the Bears. I think they will come out running the ball and using short passes to move the ball, chew up clock, and get Griese into a rhythm. If they are successful, they could win. Defensively, I expect them to bring as much heat as possible on Jon Kitna, and see if they can’t coax J. T. O’Sullivan into the game. If they fail, look for big-time points from Detroit. Man, I don’t know.

I picked the Bears by 9 points. With Griese starting, I’m really starting to second-guess that pick. How much sense does that make? As if Grossman is so much better than Brian Griese, a former Pro Bowl player? How much of the Bears’ woes were the result of Grossman’s terrible play? Lovie Smith is a smart, successful coach who seems to get good play from his guys, but the magic failed him on Rex. Yikes, that Bears pick seems pretty fragile to me right now. Do I dare switch my pick, like a chump? Ahhhhh . . .crap. Yes, I’m switching it . . .yes . . .NO . . .no . . .yes . . . no . . .YES . . .YES!

No. Bears by 9. Now let it be.

Baltimore at Cleveland seems like a no-brainer. It probably is. If the game were in Baltimore, I’d say the Browns had no chance at all, and I don’t expect this one to be close. I think the trendy analysis is to suggest that the Ravens will need to solve their fourth-quarter defense or they could be in trouble. I do agree that the Ravens might want to look long and hard at the way they’ve performed in the final frame this season, but I don’t think the Browns are the team to make them pay. The Browns do, however, have a couple of real studs on their offense, and if this game goes bizarro, it will probably be because Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow go off against a somewhat suspect Baltimore secondary that gave up two scores in week 1, got torched by Jerricho Cotchery and gave up 260 passing yards and a score to Kellen Clemens in week 2, and then was absolutely shredded by Kurt Warner in the fourth quarter of week 3. Warner had an elite receiving corps to work with, as did Carson Palmer in week 1, but Clemens did not, and he was making his first NFL start. The Browns, in one man’s opinion, have two elite playmakers in Winslow and Edwards, so this could be a test. I expect the Ravens to bring a lot of pressure at Derek Anderson. The other interesting component of this game is the Jamal Lewis-versus-his-former-team angle, which might just yield something. In his career, Lewis has saved his best performances for his AFC North rivals, including his 216-yard bonanza against the Bengals in week 2, and he might know a thing or two about running against his former teammates. Cleveland now has enough balance on offense to produce points, but their defense is dismal, and Baltimore really needs a get healthy game. McGahee has yet to score this season, and he just hasn’t really gotten going. If he keeps up at this pace, he’ll finish with almost 1,500 yards, but he has yet to have a breakout performance. McNair has hardly been brilliant, and he’s banged up. The Cleveland defense is good medicine for what ails an NFL offense, and I would expect the Ravens to take advantage.

I picked them in a blow-out, by 25 points. While I still expect them to win easily, I could also see Cleveland putting more than 9 on the board. Eh, I’m happy with it.

If I were a schmuck, I would be would be really worried about the Rams at Cowboys game being the Obvious Game mentioned in Bill Simmons article. I am not worried about it. This is not the game for the Rams to be without Stephen Jackson for the first time this season. This is a team that has averaged less than 11 points a game with their stud runner, what the hell can they do without him? Isaac Bruce is a chump and is banged up, and Mark Bulger has been just awful. I can’t see this team competing in this game. With most teams, I’d give the coach a little credit, and be excited to see how he adjusted. I want to like Scott Linehan, but I suddenly have no confidence in him as a game-planner, and I imagine St. Louis fans feel about the same right now. If the Rams are to have any chance at all in this game, they’ll need a huge effort from Brian Leonard, and they’ll need Bulger to play like himself. They are going to need big plays. The only way they win this is if they score 40 or more points. The Rams have been capable of this in the past, so who knows? WHO? I know. It’s not going to happen.

‘Nuff said. I picked the Cowboys to win by 24 points, and I think the Rams will be lucky if the Cowboys stop there.

Of all the games I’m excited to watch, Tampa Bay at Carolina is right up there at the top. Maybe it’s just me, but I feel like so little is known about who these teams truly are. That’s what this game is all about, who is the contender, who is the pretender? Which team actually has the tougher defense, or is either defense actually all that tough? Which team actually has the more explosive offense, or are these the same old crummy units from the past 3 years? The Panthers beat a lousy Falcons team on Sunday, despite the best efforts of Joey Harrington, without much help from Steve Smith, and with a big assist from DeAngelo Hall. They have gotten very little help from the rest of their receiving corps so far, and the running game has been very inconsistent. A shocker for me was in finding out that Carolina’s defense is ranked 25th in the NFL, 21st against the pass. Tampa Bay has gotten great play from their defense, but I still think they’re out-guts-ing and out-balls-ing their opponents, and they’re somehow better than the sum of their parts. I like that in a team, but it makes it hard to feel confident in their chances week to week. I definitely think this game comes down to a few unpredictable players giving solid, consistent performances. If Delhomme is accurate and smart and spreads the ball around, and Carolina gets the ground game going with some combination of DeShawn Foster and DeAngelo Williams, they will be tough to beat. If Tampa gets the same from Jeff Garcia, Cadillac Williams, and Ernest Graham, respectively, they too will be tough. Though the stats tell a different picture, I really think these defenses are a push. This should be a hard-nosed, smash-mouth game, and I think the team that takes the early lead will likely pull it off.

Here’s the issue: Delhomme will likely not play. That means David Muhfukkin Carr will get his chance for Carolina. To be perfectly honest, I never bought into the whole David Carr thing. When he was the super-hyped 1st overall pick from Fresno State, I cocked an eyebrow. He’s got a weird delivery. He doesn’t move like an athlete. He looks more like a model. I don’t think there’s a whole lot that makes him different, or better, than Joey Harrington. In fact, I like Harrington better as a quarterback! Eh, screw it.

I picked the Panthers by 4, and I think the home-field pushes them to that victory. The winner here is in the driver’s seat in the NFC South.

Man, I really bitched out on my Seattle/49ers pick. What the hell? I totally picked the Seahawks in a shoot-out because I need a big game from Matt Hasselbeck for my fantasy team to avoid oblivion. When I thought about it, it occurred to me that the Seahawks haven’t faced any tough defenses yet. Their own defense looks suspect. The 49ers need to rebound to stay above .500, and they’re playing at home, and it’s a division game. Sheesh. Seattle’s offense was average against Tampa in week 1. In week 2, they were average against Arizona. In week 3, against a defense that had given up 51 points to the friggin’ Browns, the Seahawks were just average. I think they’re one of the most overrated teams in all of football. The 49ers, on the other hand, have no offense. I don’t think there is any confidence in Alex Smith in San Francisco, and Frank Gore has been bottled up. San Francisco’s defense has also been suspect, ranking 19th in the NFL after three weeks, and now they’re going without Manny Lawson. What am I saying here? I’m saying this game will not be a shoot-out. These are two average offenses and two average defenses. Maybe Darrell Jackson gets it going this week for the 49ers, or Nate Burleson for the Sea-jacks. I think this game will be decided by the running backs. If Frank Gore can find some room and has a big night, the 49ers could win the big home game. If Shawn Alexander overcomes his broken wrist and continues to run effectively, the Seahawks will take it. Plus, Maurice Morris is probably back. Which coach do I trust to find a way to get his star tailback going? Gotta go with Mike Holmgren. Which quarterback do I trust to do enough to keep the defense from loading the box on every down? Matt Hasselbeck. Who did I pick to win the game?

I went with the Sea-jacks by 6 points. I’ll be fine.

I really can’t stand the Chiefs. I feel like they ruined the season a little bit by winning. What’s the point? This team isn’t going anywhere. They just finished rebuilding, and it’s rebuilding time again. On the other hand, there’s no pressure on them. They’re expected to be among the worst teams in the NFL, and they won’t disappoint. The Chargers look like they might be in real trouble. Good thing they play in a terrible division. I don’t see the Chargers losing this game, despite the ominous warnings of my brother, who is doing a hell of a lot better with his picks than I am. If the Chiefs are to have a chance in hell, they’ll need to come out loose, which they shouldn’t have a problem doing, and they will need a good performance from Larry Johnson. This ought to be the thrilling match-up of marquee running backs, not two guys who have combined for fewer rushing yards than Derrick Ward of the Giants. The Chiefs won on Sunday by running a lot, passing less, and playing stout defense. That’s their formula, right there. If they can run and control the clock, they can hang in there. For the Chargers, they just need to do what people expect them to do. They need to run successfully and often, they need to get the ball to Antonio Gates, they need Philip Rivers to be efficient, and they need to stuff the run with their 3-4. That should be no problem for this team. Norv is taking a lot of crap, but in a way, the loss to Green Bay may have been a blessing for him. The shaky 1-2 start means these players ought to be ready to annihilate the Chiefs, whether or not Norv is capable of giving a stirring motivational speech. Rivers has been effective enough to win, getting the ball to his playmakers and completing 70% of his passes. Gates has been sensational. In their win against the Bears in week 1, they put the ball in LT’s hands only 25 times, including his touchdown toss. In their blowout loss to the Chargers, LT touched it only 22 times. Also, the Pats cheated, I have evidence. In week 3, LT again only had 25 touches. That’s not enough! I would expect LT to get a heavy workload in this game. No fewer than 25 rushes, at least 5 targets. If so, the Chargers win easily. The Chargers need a win more than any team in the NFL, and under those circumstances, how could they NOT lean on their stud? The Chiefs will try the same thing, but they have almost no complimentary pieces. Dwayne Bowe is a good player, though.

I picked the Chargers by 99 points. Is that wrong? We’ll see. I feel confident they’ll get the win. If they don’t, there will be MAJOR fireworks in San Diego. If you thought Sunday was scary, with the sideline confrontation and LT’s press conference, just wait till they drop their third straight game, at home, to the Chiefs, and are tied for last in their terrible division a quarter of the way through the regular season. Still, I feel pretty confident that won’t happen. They’ll get the win.

I think we’ll go Fantasy Spin for the Cardinals/Steelers match-up. Sit Leinart. Sit Edge. Play Boldin and Fitzgerald. Sit Arizona’s defense. Play Roethlisberger. Play Willie Parker, unless you’re an asshole. Sit Hines Ward, he’s hurt. Play Santonio Holmes. Play Heath Miller, damn it. Play the Steelers defense. Play Najeh Davneport, if you’ve got him. By the way, if you’ve got Najeh Davenport, you are a smart person, and deserve a pat on the back. The Cardinals are a talented team with elite receivers. I honestly think this is the biggest test so far for the Steelers, and I think they’ll respond by bringing a ton of heat after Matt Leinart. If either Zona quarterback has time to set and throw in rhythm, the Cardinals can be very dangerous. Pittsburgh’s secondary has not been tested this season, and this is it. I don’t think there’s much the Cards will be able to do to slow down Pittsburgh’s offense. Willie Parker looks pretty unstoppable right now, leading the league in carries and yards and getting five yards a carry. Though the Steelers might have to go without Hines “Field” Ward, their offense looks too in sync for that to matter too much. In one man’s opinion, this one comes down to whether the Cardinals can get their passing game going early and keep this one close. I don’t know, I like the Cardinals a lot, but I just don’t see them pulling this off. I really REALLY like the Steelers. What a balanced group.

Somehow, I figured the Steelers would take this one by 18 points. It’s hard to know where I get this crap from. I’m still confident the Steelers will come away victorious, but 18 points? We’ll see.

Denver at Indianapolis is one of those games that wants to be close. Screw that bullshit. The Broncos are a bunch of posers. They friggin’ stole a victory from an otherwise hapless Bills team. They TRULY stole a victory from Oakland . . .weak, wack, baloney-filled Oakland. Then they got their asses handed to them by a Jacksonville team that is severely handicapped by their head coach. That’s right, I said it. Jack Del Rio is a liability to his franchise. And a hoser. Booyah. Denver has run the ball pretty well this season, Travis Henry is 4th in the NFL in rushing yards. Denver is 8th in the league in rushing. That’s to be expected from Shanahan’s bunch, and the team is 6th in total offense, but they’re only getting 17 points a game, good for 23rd. A good amount of that is probably due to having a super-duper young quarterback out there. I like Cutler. But I don’t think he has what it takes to overcome the Indy defense. Want a scary statistic? Bob Sanders is 10th in the NFL in sacks. I fully expect him to get another in this game. He showed tremendous timing and instincts on his rushes against the Titans, and I think there’s a great chance he’ll be used in that capacity against Denver because Cutler is a decent runner. Elvis Dumervile has been tearing it up for the Bronks, with 4 sacks, a pick, and a forced fumble. This guy was this shit in college, he’s still the shit. He’s Dwight Freeney Light. A true baller.

Don’t fall for the friggin’ hype. Denver can’t hang with Indianapolis, especially not in the RCA dome. But boy do I need Brandon Marshall to have a big game. I picked the Colts by some absurd amount. Hold on, I’m scrolling . . .wait, only 12 points? Well, at least I picked the right team.

I knee-jerked the Eagles in a truly emotional pick. I’m not ashamed. I’m now really worried that Brian Westbrook won’t be full speed in this game. In my opinion, that will decide the game. Westbrook, Villanova’s finest, might be the best player in the NFL. No really. If he plays at full speed, they will win. He’s in a different class of player, and the Giants don’t have anything in his league, not even close. He makes the Eagles a special team. He’s 5th in the league in rushing and getting nearly 6 yards per carry. He’s also 25th in the NFL in receiving, and I don’t think he’s even gotten started yet. If Brian Westbrook plays at full speed, the Eagles will always beat crappy, second-class, dysfunctional road-kill teams coached by losers like Tom Coughlin. In truth, the Eagles have played 3 teams who are a combined 7-2, lost their two games by a combined 12 points, and were playing with their all-world MVP quarterback sporting a knee-brace and clearly shaking off the rust. He lost the brace and ran like Forrest Gump in week 3, and delivered an epic on-shitting of a previously unbeaten team.
If Plaxico Burress were full-speed, I’d give the Giants a chance. You know what? They still have a chance. Shockey, for all his bullshit, is still a great talent. Derrick Ward has been solid. Toomer is still a useful target. I still believe in Eli Manning. They’ve got the home field advantage. These NFC East games are so hard to call. Who would have picked the Skynards to win in Philly in week 2? Who picked the Giants to win in Washington in week 3? It’s never about one team playing up to the challenge. It’s usually all about both teams knowing the other one’s strategy inside out, neither coach having the balls to make adjustments, and a coin-flip and momentum wins the day. All that being said, I think the Eagles have found their groove, I think the Giants are a mess, and I feel pretty good taking the road team in this one.

I picked the Beagles by 11 in a high-scoring game, and I’m sticking with it. Neither defense has been terrific, but boy can the Eagles still put pressure on a passer, as they did against the Lions, sacking Kitna 9 times. On the other hand, Kitna did throw for 446 yards and two scores. Oh god. What am I saying? Stick with the Eagles, buddy boy . . .

And finally we come to it, the big Monday nighter. We’re going to learn a lot about the Bengals in this one. Especially now that Rudi is out. They need a monster performance from their dreadful defense. They need another lights out game from Carson Palmer. They need their big-time competitors, Ocho Cinco and Hoash-Mazode, to light it up, and I think they need a big assist from the home fans. They probably need a win here as badly as anyone but the Chargers. The AFC North is way too tough to play catch-up the rest of the way. Here’s the thing: there are a bunch of teams that will play the Patriots this year that would gladly take the Bengals roster, even without Rudi Johnson, over their own. The Bengals are an explosive bunch. But they did gift wrap a game for Seattle last week. They also are responsible for the season’s biggest pants-crapping, in their loss to the Browns. The encouraging news is they showed up and topped a good Baltimore squad in week 1. Maybe they’re just playing to their competition. I joked that they might be better off putting Chad and T.J. on defense for this game. I’m not sure that’s such a bad idea. They can’t feel too great about their chances of stopping a pretty breathtaking aerial assault from New England, not when Derek Anderson tore them a new one. Maybe this is a statement game for Marvin Lewis, who is exactly a 1-3 start away from being all the way on the hot-seat going into their bye. I guess I’m trying to come up with a reason to think the Bengals can win this game, but I don’t feel real good about their chances. I’ll be real happy if they pull it off, but the Patriots are getting to the point where I’d be more shocked to see them lose any one game than I would if be if they finished 19-0. Isn’t that weird?

It’s because they fuckin’ CHEAT! No integrity-having son-of-a-bitches. I had them once again putting up 38 points, but I also had Cincy dropping 31 on ‘em. That was before I knew Rudi was out. I still like Pats, duh, but maybe we can reverse that 31. It’d be so special if the Bengals scored 14. At what point would that become truly eerie?