Don't Bother Watching, I've Got it All Figured Out!

Here's my preview of the final six weeks, starting with the NFC:

NFC East

Dallas has a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way, with 4 of 6 games against teams with .500 records or better. They'll get their biggest two tests on Thanksgiving, when they host the Packers, and in week 14, when they go to Detroit. I don't see them losing more than one more game, and it'll either be one of those or their trip to Washington in week 17, when they'll likely take it easy on their starters. Because they host Green Bay, I'm giving them the nod. Final record: 14-2 (NFC East Champ, 1st place NFC)

Philadelphia has a really really tough schedule the rest of the way, playing a full slate against teams with playoff hopes. With a healthy Donovan McNabb, I could see them possibly gutting out a .500 record the rest of the way and just missing the playoffs. Without him, they'll be lucky to win two games. After getting thrashed in New England next Sunday, they get Seattle and the Giants at home before going to Dallas and New Orleans. That's tough. They could beat Seattle, but if McNabb ends up getting shut down for the year or misses more than a week or two, they're beyond cooked. Final record: 7-9

New York also has a pretty tough road between now and their home loss to New England in week 17. They host Minnesota on Sunday, exactly the kind of tougher than hell team that could very well usher in the collapse in New York. In fact, their next six games SCREAM collapse. After a tough Vikings bunch at home, they go to tough-balls Chicago, then to rival Philly, then host rival Washington, then to big-brass-balls Buffalo, then the aforementioned reaming from New England. If they stay healthy, they could very well win five of six. I don't know, I don't feel comfortable giving them more than 4 wins. Still, that's something. Final record: 11-5 (5th place NFC)

Washington has a typically tough NFC east schedule down the stretch, but it sets up well if they can get past the Bucs in Tampa next week. They have winnable home games against Buffalo and Chicago before crucial road games in New York and Minnesota. They could very well be playing for their playoff spot in week 17 against a resting Dallas bunch. We'll see. Final record: 9-7 (6th place NFC)

NFC North

Chicago can play the playoff spoiler role in a few games down the stretch, and they have a few home games. Too bad their division is out of reach at this point. With home games against Denver, the Giants, Green Bay, and New Orleans sandwiched evenly around two road games in Washington and Minnesota, they get five of six against teams that fancy themselves playoff competitors. I see them spoiling Denver and New Orleans, and taking one of the remaining four, probably the rematch in Minnesota. Final record: 7-9

Detroit, unfortunately, will not be getting their ten wins. They have a really tough final six games, and they need to win four of them to make Kitna happy. I see them losing both matches against Green Bay, the home game against Dallas, and one of the other three, probably the road game in San Diego. Considering they got their asses handed to them by Washington, that'll leave them out of the playoff picture. They've had a hell of a season, anyway. Final record: 9-7

Minnesota doesn't even have many chances to play spoiler. If they get Adrian Peterson back, they could make some noise and they'll be worth watching. If not, they'll be a real snore-fest the rest of the way. They can spoil for Detroit, the Giants, and Washington, but their matches with San Francisco, Chicago, and Denver will have little to no impact on the season. In one man's opinion, they ought to shut Peterson down for the year. Final record: 6-10

Green Bay plays four of six on the road, but they have consecutive games against Oakland, St. Louis, and Chicago. They'll take those three, and at least one of the remaining three. Because I said Detroit will lose both games to Green Bay, I'm sticking with it. That gets the Packers to 14 wins. Sounds about right to me. Final record: 14-2 (NFC North Champ, 2nd place NFC)

NFC South

Atlanta has no reason to compete the rest of the way, other than to find out who stays and who goes in the off-season. They play five of six against playoff hopefuls, so they could do a little spoiling down the stretch, but I don't see it happening. They have one truly winnable game left on their schedule: at St. Louis, and they'll lose by at least two scores. Final record: 3-13

Carolina also finishes with five of six against playoff hopefuls. Who knows with this team? Right now, I would only pick them to win one of their remaining games, so I'm sticking with it. They're lucky they get San Francisco at home. Final record: 5-11

New Orleans will not be making the playoffs. Looking at their remaining schedule, they don't have much to worry about, except that they're a remarkably unpredictable and inconsistent team. I'll probably pick them in all but two of their games, but that leaves them at .500 to finish the season. Maybe next year, Saints! Final record: 8-8

Tampa Bay will be winning the NFC South. All they need is three wins, and if they fail to get them beforehand, they're virtually assured with Atlanta, San Francisco, and Carolina (at home) to finish the season. If they're lucky enough to pull out a couple of wins before that "murderer's row", they could even rest a few players in week 17! Final record: 10-6 (NFC South champ, 4th place NFC)

NFC West

Arizona has a nice schedule for making a playoff run, with four winnable home games sandwiched around 50/50 road contests. They could and should win three of four home games against San Francisco, Cleveland, Atlanta, and St. Louis. They'll need at least four wins down the stretch to get to 9-7, which will leave them out of the post-season, owing to their road loss to Washington. If they can get that fifth win in six against Cleveland, Seattle (on the road), or New Orleans (also on the road), they'll take the tie-breaker and squeak in, giving the woeful NFC West two playoff teams and the whole rest of the NFL something to chuckle about. Final record: 9-7

St. Louis actually has a tough-ish schedule down the stretch. If they stay healthy, they could win two or three of those games, but why? They'd do better to get a high draft pick. Final record: 4-12

San Francisco won't win another game all year. They're that bad. Final record: 2-14

Seattle will get the NFC West crown, especially since they don't have jack down the stretch. Their biggest test will be a home game against Arizona. They should win four of six, if not more. Final record: 11-5 (NFC West Champ, 3rd place NFC)

AFC East

Buffalo has too tough a schedule down the stretch to make a run at the AFC Wild Card. They play four of six on the road, with all four road games against teams that currently sit at .500 or better. They have a winnable home game against Miami and a tough home game against the Giants, and if they pull out a .500 record the rest of the way, it'll be just as impressive an achievement as their .500 record through ten games. Final record: 7-9

Miami has a pretty even mix of opportunities to spoil and games that I couldn't be paid to watch. If everything fell right, they could conceivably win three games down the stretch, with home games against the Jets, Baltimore, and Cincinnati. They'll lose all of their road contests, especially considering they get Pittsburgh, New England, and Buffalo. I don't see them going winless, and I think the best chances for that all-too-elusive first win will be against New York and Baltimore. They'll get at least one. Final record: 1-15

New England will be heavy favorites in every game this year. The early line for their week 12 home game against a potentially McNabb-less Philly team is 22.5 points. Yikes. They have only two road games left on their schedule, in Baltimore and in New York. Against all odds, I think there's a greater likelihood that they go undefeated than that they lose a game. If Pittsburgh can't beat the Jets, Arizona, and Denver on the road, what makes anyone think they can go into Gillette Stadium and take down the Pats? Final record: 16-0 (AFC East Champ, 1st place AFC)

New York has too many road games left to really climb back into any sort of respectability. They'll lose three of four of them, including in Dallas, in New England, and in Tennessee. They ought to beat Kansas City at home in week 17, but that's a crapshoot. Could the upset Cleveland at home? Sure, but I don't see it happening. Their best chance for a win will come in Miami, in a matchup nobody in their right mind will be interested in. Final record: 3-13

AFC North

Baltimore's playoff hopes are cooked. They have a full slate of super-tough games against win-hungry opponents fighting for playoff positions. I'd pick them to lose all but maybe one game, and their probably good for an upset in there. They hose New England, Indy, and Pittsburgh (yipe!), and travel to San Diego and Seattle. I'll probably pick them when they go to Miami, but that could be a loss, too. I can't see them pulling out more than one, MAYBE two wins. Screw it. Final record: 5-11

Cincinnati has a fairly light schedule the rest of the way. I see them passing Baltimore in the AFC North. They have home games against Tennessee, St. Louis, and Cleveland, and they go to Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Miami. There are probably three wins in there, as long as their offense is working. They could even jump up and sting Tennessee or Cleveland if they stay hot. Will it be enough to save Marvin Lewis's job? Final record: 6-10

Cleveland has a pretty easy run here to finish the season, and they look pretty good for the playoffs. Their biggest test comes in Arizona in week 13, but even that game is perfectly winnable. They hose Houston, Buffalo, and San Francisco, and they go to Arizona, the Jets, and Cincinnati. If nothing else, they'll put up big offensive numbers the rest of the way, and I see them getting to ten wins. Cleveland needs to win each of their remaining AFC games to realistically have a chance at the wild-card. Because I think they and Tennessee will be tied for the sixth spot, it'll come down to conference win percentage, and Cleveland is sitting at 4-4. If they get to 8-4 in the AFC, they're probably in. Since their remaining AFC games are against Houston, Buffalo, the Jets, and the Bengals, they'll probably be favored in each game. Final record: 10-6 (6th place AFC)

Pittsburgh can probably start making plans for the post-season. They've got four pretty easy wins left on their schedule: hosting Miami and Cincinnati, and then going to St. Louis and Baltimore. If they can take those, they'll sew up their division. The other two games, a road loss to New England and a tough home game against Jacksonville, could determine whether or not they have a first round bye in the playoffs. Final record: 11-5 (AFC North Champ, 3rd place AFC)

AFC South

Houston has done a hell of a job to scrape their way to .500 this late in the season, but they'll have a tough time staying there through the end. They go to Cleveland, Tennessee, and Indianapolis, and those will be three tough games. They hose Tampa, Denver, and Jacksonville, and those won't be too easy either. I see them playing tough in every game, and because I like the Texans, I'll go ahead and give 'em two wins. With the injuries they've suffered, seven wins is nothing to sniff at. Final record: 7-9

Indianapolis should have no problem winning their division, though they have a few tests remaining. Their remaining division contests are home games against Houston, Jacksonville, and Tennessee, and they've already taken road games from all three. They have Atlanta, Baltimore, and Oakland on the road, so even if they drop a disappointing home loss to one of their rivals, they should still get to eleven or twelve wins. That should be enough to get them to the post-season. Final record: 12-4 (AFC South Champs, 2nd place AFC)

Jacksonville has some pretty important games left. There isn't a game left on their schedule they couldn't win, but they've battled inconsistency all season long. Their remaining home games are favorable, with Buffalo, Carolina, and Oakland coming to town. They go to Indy, Pittsburgh, and Houston, and those will be critical games. If they stay healthy and consistent, I see them taking four of six. Final record: 11-5 (5th place AFC)

Tennessee needs four wins in their final six games to stay in the playoff discussion, and here they are: at Cincinnati, hosting Houston, at Kansas City, and hosting the Jets. Their other games are in Indianapolis, and hosting San Diego. They could take San Diego down, too. Here's the thing about their remaining games: Kansas City and New York have anemic offenses, and that works to Tennessee's advantage. Cincinnati, Houston, Indy, and San Diego all have the potential to explode, so those will be very dangerous games for Tennessee. As we saw against the Broncos on Monday night, they struggle when they have to play from behind because they prefer to work methodically in their offense, and they don't have many big play threats. Because of that, I think they won't get more than ten wins, but ten could be enough for a playoff spot. All their remaining games are against the AFC, and by my calculations, Tennessee would need to win five of six to get to the post-season. If they win five of six, they'll be 11-5, so they'd be in anyway. Point is, I don't see them winning five of six, so I see them on the outside looking in. Final record: 10-6

AFC West

Denver could very well win the AFC West. They host Kansas City and Minnesota, both tough tests for their horrid run defense. They go to Chicago, Oakland, Houston, and San Diego. The common theme for their remaining schedule is the running game: each of these teams features it heavily and will seriously test the thin defense of the Broncos. Because of that, I don't see Denver winning more than three of these games: the Chiefs at home, Minnesota at home, and in Oakland. That'll get 'em to 8-8, but will it be enough? No! Final record: 8-8

Kansas City will probably crumble down the stretch, though they don't have the toughest schedule. With home games against Oakland, San Diego, and Tennessee, they could do a little spoiling. At Denver and at Detroit they can do a little more. Their finale against the Jets ought to be one of the worst, least important games of the year. If LJ is back and healthy, they could very well win three more, but since I think the Chiefs are hiding the fact that LJ is done for the season to save the embarrassment of having to admit they made a mistake by dealing his primary backup, they'll probably get two at the most. Final record: 6-10

Oakland is a mess, and a lot depends on whether they go to the kid or not. If they do, they'll probably only stand a chance of winning one of their remaining games, either their trip to Arrowhead or their home contest with Denver. Hell, even if they don't start him, they're not beating Green Bay, Indy, Jacksonville, or San Diego. Final record: 3-13

San Diego probably will win the AFC West, and I hope they do it by getting above .500. They ought to beat Baltimore at home, Denver at home, Kansas City on the road, and Oakland on the road. That'll put 'em at 9-7. They could also take a home game against Detroit, that'd be even better. I don't love the Chargers, but I can't stand the idea of an 8-8 division winner. Honestly, I don't even like a 9-7 division winner, but the AFC West is just atrocious. Final record: 9-7 (AFC West Champ, 4th place AFC)

Picks coming later!