Week 13 Pix

Here we go!

Tennessee @ Detroit
The Line: Tennessee by 11
Detroit is dead meat on Thursday. Like a turkey. Get it?

It's a funny thing about sports: when you have a disappointing loss, you're allowed to get "revenge" on the next sad-sack piece of shit team you play. There's something horribly wrong, yet terribly funny about Detroit getting beat up and humiliated as "revenge" for the Jets winning in Tennessee.

I'll say this, though: Tennessee hasn't been playing their best football for weeks now. Objectively, without taking a grand view of their record, I don't think they're actually one of the three or four best teams in the NFL. At their best, they're a team that can dominate defensively, run the ball extremely well, and not turn the ball over in the passing game. Pittsburgh, at their best, is all that plus 350 yards passing and 3 touhdowns. The same can be said of the Jets, the Giants, the Panthers, even the Cowboys. I'm not saying the Cowboys are better than the Titans, not in a million years. Alls I'm saying is the Titans have been primed for getting exposed for a few weeks now, and it finally happened. They need to get their mojo back, and they couldn't be in a better position than traveling to Detroit on Thanksgiving to ream the be-Jesus out of the awful, train-wreck Lions. It should be ugly.
Titans over Lions, 27-10

Seattle @ Dallas
The Line: Dallas by 12.5
Seattle can expect to have something brown crammed up their gaping asses. Like stuffing in a turkey. Get it?

Hey, who wants to take bets on whether or not Seattle will follow San Francisco's lead and give Terrell Owens 10 yards of space at the line of scrimmage on Thursday?

Actually, that could be an interesting thing to watch in this game, now that I think about it. Dallas had a big offensive explosion on Sunday, and if you weren't watching closely, it might seem like they solved all their offensive woes against the Niners. On the other hand, as I mentioned in my week 12 recap, they didn't run the ball well at all and Tony Romo actually wasn't sharp at all except for his deep connections with Owens. So what happens when Marcus Trufant starts the game in T.O.'s grill, disrupts him at the line, and Seattle's still-pretty-decent pass rush bears down on Romo while he looks for his other options? I guess what I'm saying here is the Cowboys will probably take a page from the Redskins versus Seattle and load up on Marion Barber's back. It's a good strategy. If they don't do it, who knows, this could be an interesting game. There's no way Dallas' defense is as good as Washington's. I'm just saying, keep an eye on this game. With as well as San Fransisco moved the ball against Dallas on Sunday, if they hadn't given up T.O.'s wet dream, they would have been in that game.

I'm predicting a Dallas blowout. But I'm putting it out there, just in case.
Cowboys over Seahawks, 34-20

Arizona @ Philadelphia
The Line: Philadelphia by 3
A win here wraps up the division for Arizona, so every win after this game would be . . . you got it, gravy. Like on a turkey. Get it?

I'm so tempted to take Arizona. Philadelphia has been so, so bad in their last two games, especially on offense. Baltimore's defense will do that to you, but Cincinnati? Not so much. Arizona is somewhere between the two, but they've got this going for them: they pressure the pocket well and they hit. I also kinda like the idea of this being a revenge game for Arizona, coming off their first loss at home and their third against the NFC East (that's right, we own your ass, motherfuckers). I like the idea of them going to Philadelphia, in front of an ornery, half-dead Philly crowd as angry at the home team as they are hungry for a victory, and pulverizing the Eagles into a chunky sludge. Like mashed potatoes. If there's anybody stupid enough to think the Eagles could still challenge for something this season, that'd be the end of that. I really want that to happen.

In order for Arizona to win, first, they need to protect Kurt Warner and make Donovan McNabb work in the pocket. If they can get a running game going, so much the better. I really like their chances. I've been sucked into believing in the 2008 Cardinals, but that will go into serious doubt if they can't take care of business against a wounded, flailing Philly team just begging to be euthanized. Euthanized and rubbed with butter, stuffed with bread, roasted to 155 degrees for the white meat and 185 for the dark, then carved and slathered with delicious gravy. Like a turkey.

Philly could win. Sure. But who knows what Philly team is going to show up. I know this: if McNabb struggles early and that crowd gets to booing, forget about the Eagles. McNabb is so ready to make it official in Philadelphia, no way he's battling both the Cardinals and the home crowd four days after being benched for the first time in his career. Forget that.

Hey, know what? Because they're favored, I'm calling it an upset special. Cards win!
Cardinals over Eagles, 27-21

San Francisco @ Buffalo
The Line: Buffalo by 7
Now here's a game to not care about. Buffalo might technically still be in the hunt for a wild card. Hell, they might technically have a shot at the division. That don't mean shit to me. I'm more or less done with the Bills in 2008.

Now, if they were to run up another shameful obliteration on Sunday, that might change things. They endured a truly nauseating 5-game losing streak that pretty much crushed their momentum and threw the whole organization into doubt, and the only way back from such a devastating blow might be a pair of back-to-back gruesome annihilations. If the Bills fight back to 7-5 behind a pair of resounding dominations, they might just recover enough swagger to make it a sprint to the finish of the regular season.

And they could flatten the Niners. As every week passes, the Niners have less and less to play for. They got pounded pretty good on Sunday, this is the second of two consecutive road games, and this one is all the way across the country in colder 'n hell Buffalo.

Alright, so here's the pick: Buffalo is favored by 7. San Francisco is sure to be worn out, so they probably won't do much on offense. It'll be cold, so Buffalo probably won't be up for another 50-point explosion. Buffalo by 7, fairly low scoring.
Bills over 49ers, 17-10

Baltimore @ Cincinnati
The Line: Baltimore by 7
I think this'll be another wipe out. Cincinnati is terrible.

Baltimore could probably win this game even if, instead of playing offense, they just punted the ball back to Cincinnati on every first down.

I really don't have anything to say about this game. Baltimore will win.
Ravens over Bengals, 23-14

Indianapolis @ Cleveland
The Line: Indianapolis by 4.5
Look who the Colts have beaten in their 4-game winning streak: the Chargers in San Diego, the Texans at home (just beat the Browns in Cleveland), the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and New England at home. What chance do the goddamn Browns have? None. Zero chance.

Indianapolis is rolling. Or, at any rate, they're doing what could be called rolling when you're as banged up and rusty as the Colts currently are. They're bouncing. Rumbling.

Cleveland needs to focus first on just getting some kind of offensive rhythm going. Where has the running game gone? Why wouldn't the Browns be able to run the ball against the Texans? Why would Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson play so, so poorly against Houston's defense? The Browns need something positive. A home win over the Colts would be very positive. Since that isn't going to happen, they'll have to settle for trying to put together a respectable offensive showing. Indy's defense isn't very strong. Give the fans something to be happy about. Complete some passes, run the ball at least a little bit, score a few touchdowns. You'll lose, but dammit, look respectable when you do it.
Colts over Browns, 29-21

Miami @ St. Louis
The Line: Miami by 8
You know, I'm not having a hard time with these picks. I see Miami going hog-wild in St. Louis.

I could be wrong. I've already picked 4 road teams. Generally speaking, that's lunacy. Still, how the hell do you pick the Rams? I can't identify a single thing this team does well. They don't run well, they don't protect, the don't pass well, the defense is just awful, and they have a way of getting flat-out annihilated in the first half of football games. Miami, on the other hand, hey, they're due a little pay-it-forward revenge too, aren't they? What's a good term for that? Forevenge? Miami is out for forevenge.

So I like the Dolphins.
Dolphins over Rams, 23-17

New York Giants @ Washington
The Line: New York Giants by 3.5
Here it is, folks. If there's a little pendulum that swings to and fro and determines things like revenge, forevenge, karma, etc., here's where it breaks, no shatters, and utterly betrays the Washington Redskins. The Redskins want revenge for week 1. They're also due some forevenge for 2 straight home losses in big games. They didn't get caught looking ahead in Seattle. Generally, that's a good sign. And none of it will matter, not even a little bit. Because the Redskins are going down. They're going down hard.

Look, I think we've established that I love the Redskins. I love them too much, perhaps. I love the Redskins like I hate the AFC West. And it's because of this love that I need to lay this one out early and honestly. If I go into this game with even a little hope that the Redskins will win, I will probably not be alive come Monday morning.

I'm extremely proud of the 2008 Washington Redskins. They're nothing if not overachievers. I love their discipline, I love their attitude, I really respect their humble, tortoise-like determination. I love an underdog, and the Redskins are good, lovable underdogs. The problem, in this match-up, is the Redskins might be a bit too tortoise-like. The Giants are not the hare. The Giants are the fully-loaded 18-wheeler. If the Redskins come out like humble, lovable tortoises against the Giants, they'll get smeared up 300 yards of interstate.

I'm hesitant to invoke the emotion of the Sean Taylor ceremony in calculating my final score. On the one hand, it's just possible that the emotion of the moment will lift the Redskins crowd and their performance to another level. On the other hand, it's extremely tacky to hope for such a thing, and I cannot and will not include any such thing in my expectations for the way this team plays on Sunday. The fact is, Sean Taylor was a real guy who really died, and he really was a friend and teammate to these guys. They're allowed to process that information any way they end up doing it. Now, I'm not giving them a pre-emptive excuse for a loss, but I'll say this: if my friend died, and a year later I showed up to work after a memorial service and had a shite day because I was all emotionally fucked up, well, screw you if you have a problem with that.

So here it is: if Washington wants any chance of winning this game, they absolutely must win the line of scrimmage. Running the ball well will be essential, if only because it'll keep the Giants from pinning their ears back in the defensive front. In the passing game, it would be a very good time to work in a healthy dose of the screens, slip-screens, draw plays, shovel passes, and play-fakes that have been peppered into Washington's play-calling through 11 games. I can't stress this enough, Washington cannot be in many long must-pass situations, especially not if they're behind. And the only way they can expect to hit any long pass plays is if they manage to frustrate or discourage New York's pass-rush. For that to happen, they need to run the ball well, or at least often, and they need to slow the rush by hitting quick plays behind it.

Defensively, hey, know what? I'm not all that worried about New York's offense. It's time for Washington's defense to get a little respect, dammit. The Redskins have the NFL's third ranked defense, better than New York. They're better against the pass and only 5 yards worse against the run. Washington's defense will do a respectable job if healthy. If they can give the offense a short field a few times and maybe force a turnover or two, hey, then they've really given themselves a chance.

It's also important that the Redskins not come out slow again. They've been bad in the first quarter on offense for a few weeks now. It's especially bad because Washington's defense has been at it's best, or at least it's feistiest, in the early part of games. For Washington to have a chance, they need their defense to come out fired up and win the line of scrimmage in the early part of the game, and they need their offense to take advantage. If they can put the Giants in a hole and take away the run a little bit, they'll give themselves an even better chance.

Okay, to keep from talking myself into picking the Redskins, I'm going to stop now. The Giants are going to win the game. Hopefully it won't be too bad a blowout.
Giants over Redskins, 20-13

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
The Line: Tampa Bay by 3.5
This is an interesting game. Let's get one thing out of the way: I'll be rooting like a mad-man for the Saints. Yes, I'm sick of them. No, I don't want them in the playoffs. But I just don't like those Bucs, and I'd rather the Panthers win the South, and I'd rather the Bucs lose out and miss the playoffs.

Last time these teams met, in week 1, the Saints pulled out a close, relatively low-scoring game in which Brees put up another damn efficient outing, going 23 of 32 for 343 yards, 3 scores, and a pick. I think it's safe to say he won't be too befuddled by the Tampa-2. And this game obviously means a lot more to the Saints than the Bucs. On the other hand, horrible old Brian Griese was starting at quarterback for the Bucs in week 1. Tampa's offense is . . . what, 100 times better with Jeff Garcia back there?

Just when I think it might be possible to pick the Saints, there's this, and this really made the decision for me: the Saints are 1-4 on the road in 2008, whereas the Bucs are 5-0 at home. No way in hell I'm picking New Orleans, one of the NFL's worst "good" road teams, to beat one of the NFL's 3 undefeated home teams. Forget it.
Bucs over Saints, 31-29

Carolina @ Green Bay
The Line: Green Bay by 3
Ah, fuck this game.

The Panthers have a tough road to the playoffs, now that they're in second place in the NFC South. That loss to the Falcons was a killer. Check this out: the Panthers have 3 road games left on their schedule: at Green Bay this week, at the Giants in week 16, and at New Orleans in week 17. They'll probably be underdogs in all three. Their two remaining home games are against the 8-3 Bucs and the 6-5 Broncos. By my math, for Carolina to win the South, they need to win 3 of those games and have the Bucs drop 3 of 5. Again, by my math, if the Panthers finish at 10-6, they will not get a wild-card berth. That's how I worked it out. I'll show you my math later, but there it is. A week ago, this was maybe the third best team in the NFL; now, they need to win one of three extremely tough road games and sweep two tough home games and get help from Tampa Bay to win the South, and if they don't win one of those road games or somehow drop a home game, they're all the way out of the playoffs. The NFC is friggin' bananas in 2008. I have a 10-6 and three 9-7s not making the playoffs from the NFC. Nuts.

So this is a huge game for Carolina. If they can find a way to go into Green Bay and come out with a win, it won't be smooth sailing by any stretch of the imagination, but it'll give them more of a margin for error in those final two weeks of the season when they travel to two more playoff hopefuls.

As for Green Bay, look, if they want any chance of winning the NFC North, they basically can't afford to drop more than one more game the rest of the way. They play 3 of 5 at home, and this is the toughest of the three. A loss here doesn't necessarily wrap it up, but do they really want to be in a situation of having to win out just to have a chance? Green Bay hasn't been able to put together any kind of solid stretch all year, and in order for them to have even a hope of making the playoffs, they'll need one to finish the regular season. It starts Sunday afternoon!

I have no faith in Jake Delhomme. He's killing the Panthers lately. Drew Brees made mincemeat out of Green Bay's tough secondary. Jake Delhomme ain't no Drew Brees. If Delhomme doesn't break out of his funk and start protecting the ball, the Panthers will lose this game and it'll be damn close to panic time in Carolina.

Here's how I see this game going: the Packers are going to have to sling the ball a lot, because it's extremely unlikely that Ryan Grant is going to do much against (anyone ever) Carolina's run defense. If the Packers can get up early and force the Panthers away from the running game, it'll be all she wrote for Carolina. On the other hand, if Aaron Rodgers turns the ball over or takes some hits or can't find a rhythm, and Carolina is able to use their running game to keep Green Bay's offense on the bench, it could get really ugly for the Packers. You saw what happened on Monday night when they had to do a lot of scoring in a hurry. It wasn't pretty, and the Saints defense is nothing like Carolina's.

I'm reluctant to give the edge to the team that won't be able to run the ball, is under .500, and just gave up 51 points to a team I don't take seriously at all. I like the Packers. I'd prefer they win the game. But they've been killing my picks pretty much all season, and I think I'm done picking them for a while. I'd rather they win, but the safe pick is Carolina, even on the road.
Panthers over Packers, 27-23

Atlanta @ San Diego
The Line: San Diego by 5.5
San Diego's defense is crap. Atlanta has a strong, two-headed monster of a running game, a solid, big-play passing game, they're stingy with the ball, they take advantage of opportunities, and they get good field position from having a pretty damn underrated defense and good special teams. Atlanta is the anti-San Diego: they're perhaps the NFL's biggest overachievers. God, karma, and Santa Claus all want Atlanta to win this game. So do I.

And I think they will. ESPN and some other parts of the national sports media may not have caught on yet, but even Jay Novacek (worst NFL analyst of all time) has finally realized that the San Diego Chargers aren't even a little bit better than their record. San Diego has the same record as Houston, the same record as Cleveland, the same record as Jacksonville. They're only a game better than Oakland. And that's who they are. They stink. At home, on the road, in division, out of division, in and out of the AFC, they're crap. They're poorly coached, they're apathetic, they're overrated, they don't do anything especially well, and they buy into their own hype more than any other team in the NFL other than Dallas.

I fully expect Atlanta to win this game. I see them running the ball well, working the play-action passing game, getting after it on special teams, winning both lines of scrimmage, and generally just hustling more and wanting it more than San Diego. San Diego, led by Norv Turner (and all his excuses) and the smirking Philip Rivers, doesn't have the heart to battle a character team like the Falcons.

At least, that's how I hope it goes. I'm not fooling myself, though; the Chargers still have some talent on offense and they are at home and they could win. The thing is, on a neutral field I'd probably pick Atlanta to win 9 of 10 games. Here's the funny part: though Atlanta is on the east coast and San Diego is a dismal west-to-east team, I'd actually like San Diego's chances more in Atlanta, even as well as the Falcons play at home. Why? Because one of the big problems with this Chargers team is how flat they are. It's a hallmark of a Norv Turner team. At home, they expect to win. They expect it to be easy. They're not prepared to come out and fly around and kick the shit out of somebody for four full quarters. On the road, in hostile Atlanta, I'd expect those few players on the Chargers with any pride to be at least a little fired up, in spite of Turner's best efforts, just by the challenge of it all. In San Diego, I expect the Falcons to be hungier, sharper, more focused, and better prepared. I lived all the way through Turner's tenure in Washington, I remember all too well how flat his teams were at home, even in big games. They were also flat on the road, sure, but at home it was sometimes like they were drugged or in a daze. They'd float around like zombies with puzzled looks on their faces, they'd be sucking wind and reeling by the end of the first half, and generally speaking, Norv was powerless to get them to adjust or sober up for more than one good drive in the second half. Against hungry, tough, sharp teams, it was never enough.

So I'm picking the Falcons, on the road, all the way across the country. They're always tougher, always sharper, always hungier, always more prepared. And then there's that Norv Turner edge.
Falcons over Chargers, 28-23

Now, before I go a single pick further, I'd like to point out that I've now picked 8 of 11 possible road teams. Have the wheels come all the way off my 2008 NFL picks? What the hell's going on here? I'm tempted, very, VERY tempted, to go back and reverse my pick on that Carolina/Green Bay game. Maybe the Arizona/Philly game. Maybe even the Atlanta/San Diego pick I just made. This is a friggin' debacle. I'm going down in flames in week 13.

Denver @ New York Jets
The Line: New York Jets by 8
Here's one I don't have to worry about. I'll be shocked if the Jets lose this game. There's always the "trap game" possibility, after such a huge road win in week 12. It's possible. Jay Cutler could get hot again. You never know.

I really don't care about this game at all. I bullshitted my way through 5 paragraphs of Falcons/Chargers, I earned the right to give the finger to this massacre-in-the-making.
Jets over Broncos, 41-21

Pittsburgh @ New England
The Line: New England by 1
Pittsburgh would love to get sweet, sweet revenge on this Patriots team for whupping 'em pretty good in what was supposed to be a competitive game in 2007. And I do think the Steelers are not just a much better team than in 2007, but a much better team than even 4 weeks ago. They've tinkered around with their passing game to take some pressure off their offensive line, and it's helping open things up for Ben Roethlisberger.

Weather will not be a factor in this game, no matter how cold or blustery it ends up being. Pittsburgh plays in a goddamn nuthouse of elements at Hines Field. A game in Antarctica would be favorable. Ultimately, Pittsburgh's defense is charged with the same task they failed miserably at last season; find a way to address New England's spread offense. The 3-4 is good at a lot of things, but defending 4 and 5 receiving options ain't one of them. If they can't get pressure on Matt Cassel before he gets comfortable dumping the ball off, they'll be in trouble.

Now, I happen to be more intimidated by Pittsburgh's defense than just about any in football. I have tons of faith in their ability to push around just about any offense in football. It will not surprise me at all if Matt Cassel implodes utterly under the pressure he's sure to face Sunday afternoon. In order for me to pick the Steelers (another road team), though, I'd have to be pretty damn certain whatever they have planned to take away New England's offense is superior to whatever Josh McRoberts and Bill Belichick have cooked up to confuse and attack the other way. I'm not certain. Not at all. Not after the way New England shredded to smithereens Miami's 3-4 on Sunday.

So I'm picking the Patriots. Again, I'm rooting against this pick, but I think the Pats are a safe pick at home.
Patriots over Steelers, 24-23

Kansas City @ Oakland
The Line: Oakland by 3
I thought about checking to see when either of these teams was last favored in a game. Then I thought about looking at stats or records or doing any sort of actual thinking about the match-up so as to make an educated pick. But you know what? This is possibly the worst game left on the NFL schedule in 2008, and I can't waste even 10 minutes coming up with this pick. I'm taking the home team by the spread, and I don't care, and I'm not watching the highlights unless a comet rockets down into Oakland and obliterates the stadium.
Raiders over Chiefs, 75-72

Chicago @ Minnesota
The Line: Minnesota by 3.5
Here's the thing: I think Chicago is ten times better than Minnesota. Better coach, better quarterback, better special teams, more cohesive, better. Just better.

I'm picking the Vikings, and here's why: because Chicago is better and I want them to win the North, but they play in the North, which means they aren't clutch and won't ever take care of business. Because the Vikings are phony and fatally flawed but they play in the North too, so they're sure to stick a thorn in the side of the better team and throw the whole thing into a blender for another few weeks.

And these teams will probably combine for 200 points.
Vikings over Bears, 37-27

Jacksonville over Houston
The Line: Houston by 3
Don't know, don't care. I never would have predicted that a week 13 Monday night game between two AFC South teams would be completely irrelevant. Well, here it is.
Home team by 3.
Texans over Jaguars, 24-21

I'll have more later in the week. I actually did the whole playoff math thing I did last year, I've got it all on paper. I'll post in before Sunday. It's really wacky, and if it turns out to be correct, I will officially be the greatest genius of all time.

Go Skynards!