I Owned Week 13

An ass-kicking 11-5 record this weekend, including brilliant gut-picks like Atlanta in San Diego and Carolina in Green Bay. My reward for another strong weekend of picks despite taking something like 10 road teams? I get to bang out some pretty short re-caps. I didn't pay a whole lot of attention to real football this holiday weekend, opting to go Madden-crazy instead.

So here we go:

Tennessee over Detroit, 47-10
My Pick: Tennessee over Detroit, 27-10
The Titans did what you might expect them to do, which is get healthy behind the ground game at the expense of the poor Lions, who had the misfortune of running up against an angry Titans team, coming off their first loss of the season, in Detroit's only nationally televised game of the season.

I really do think the Lions will go winless in 2008.

Dallas over Seattle, 34-9
My Pick: Dallas over Seattle, 34-20
Hey, two games in a row in which I pretty much caught the spirit of the affair. Seattle had just enough energy to hang around for about a quarter and get into scoring position a few times before finally crapping out. Look, nothing against Mike Holmgren, who I generally think is a damn good coach, but this team has pretty obviously quit. Do they hustle? Sure. But they look like they're going through the motions to me, especially now that Matt Hasselback is under center again. I've said it a hundred times: Hasselback is a front-runner, when things aren't going his way or he isn't comfortable he plays like a chicken-shit.

Anyway, Dallas looks like they're rounding into form, which is what you'd expect after a handful of games with Roy Williams at wide-out. Right now, if you're Wade Philips, you've got to be thinking about the 2007 New York Giants, and how it was a late season run that put them at top speed and made them so formidable in the playoffs. If the Cowboys are smart, they'll do everything they can to win all their remaining games by two touchdowns.

Philadelphia over Arizona, 41-21
My Pick: Arizona over Philadelphia, 27-21
Know what? The Cardinals are exactly the same team as the Redskins, only opposite in some small, strange ways. For instance, the Cardinals pass the ball very well, but can't seem to figure out the ground game, and it makes them one-dimensional, and it's hurting their offense badly. The Redskins run the ball very well but can't figure out the passing offense, to the same effect. Arizona can't figure out how to win on the road, whereas the Redskins can't seem to figure out how to win at home. Both teams are 7-5. The difference? The Redskins play in the NFC East, which is now 3-1 against Arizona, whereas the Cardinals play in the NFC West, where 7-5 is good enough to leave you just a game away from clinching the division. How in the hell is that fair? If the Redskins played in the NFC West, they'd be no worse than 9-3 today.

It's hard for me to care about this game one way or another. I'm done with the part of my life where I buy into anything this Philadelphia Eagles team does well on offense, so 41 points doesn't really mean shit to me. If Cincinnati put up 41 it'd mean more to me than this. The Eagles are garbage. The Cardinals, it turns out, are total pretenders. Ah well.

San Francisco over Buffalo, 10-3
My Pick: Buffalo over San Francisco, 17-10
Ouch. Quite possibly the worst loss of the season by any team.

And continuing down that thread, how in the hell did they lose this game? At home, they outgained the Niners by 155 yards. Marshawn Lynch ran for 134 yards. Buffalo had more time of possession, more drives into their opponent's territory, more drives inside the 30, more first downs, better starting field position, and fewer three-and-outs. It's a mystery. You have to try very hard to dominate a game like that, only score three points, and lose at home.

And as for Marshawn Lynch, how do you know when the whole "NFL starting tailback" thing isn't working out? When you get 134 yards on only 16 carries at home and your team puts up only 3 points and you lose. Honestly, seriously, I really like this guy, but has he had a positive impact on a single Buffalo game all season? If so, when?

Baltimore over Cincinnati, 34-3
My Pick: Baltimore over Cincinnati, 23-14
Oh, wait, this loss was pretty bad, too. Granted, nothing was on the line, but damn. 34-3? In a division game? At home? My God, the Bengals are incredibly bad. There are no fewer than 5 teams this season that genuinely belong in the discussion of worst teams of the last 25 years. Take one of these teams (Rams, Raiders, Chiefs, Bengals) and dump them in any other season since 1983 and you're looking at a strong contender for worst team in the NFL. This season? There's a hands-down worst team (the Lions), and the list of abysmal, totally dysfunctional teams runs at least 6 or 7 deep if you throw in San Francisco and Seattle. When has the NFL ever been this bottom-heavy?

And I'm oh-so-happy the Ravens are blazing at about 1000% headed into next Sunday's prime-time home game against the reeling Redskins. That's just fucking great.

Indianapolis over Cleveland, 10-6
My Pick: Indianapolis over Cleveland, 29-21
So it wasn't quite the shoot-out I thought it might be. The Browns are so beyond cooked. Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn are out for the season. That means the Browns are going into Tennessee (gulp) with (oh God no) Ken Dorsey at quarterback. I'll hit on this a bit more in my week 14 picks, but here's a teaser: I really like Ken Dorsey. He was one of the first college quarterbacks I ever really gave a shit about, I think he's an excellent dude, and I'm betting he's got a strong future ahead of him as an quarterbacks coach or offensive coordinator. But he's getting his fucking head torn off next Sunday.

As for this game, hey, Indy found a way to win. Good for them. They're sitting pretty in the wild-card chase, especially since New England and Buffalo both had their doors blown off.

Miami over St. Louis, 16-12
My Pick: Miami over St. Louis, 23-17
Miami likes to make 'em close, but at least they got the job done. But there are some things you can't do if you want to win regularly, and among them is committing 10 penalties and putting two fumbles on the ground on the road. Miami escaped with this one. A win is a win, but they need to shore that shit up.

New York Giants over Washington, 23-7
My Pick: New York Giants over Washington, 20-13
Yeah, I was about right with this one.

The word that comes to mind is "out-classed". The Giants out-classed the Redskins. As much as I hate to agree with anything John Riggins has to say about the Redskins after a loss, about this he's correct: the Giants are in a completely different class from the Redskins. They're deeper and better at just about every single position on both sides of the ball. The Giants don't have to do one particular thing especially well to beat most teams in the NFL. They can adjust and tinker and mis-fire and restart and still win going away. If this team doesn't win the Super Bowl this season, I'll be incredibly disappointed. Even the Patriots had vulnerabilities. The Patriots were not going to run the ball down your throat, nor were they going to dominate defensively. The Giants can pound you to death or they can air it out. There defense will dominate. They have better special teams than you. The Giants are better than you.

As for those poor goddamn Redskins, whatever special ingredient is needed to get the passing game going, the poor bastards just don't have it. They have to play too perfectly to score points in the passing game. That was never more evident than after this game, when Jim Zorn made a comment about how the Redskins need to score more points, and that the running game has clicked, but they just need to throw it better and catch it better. While I agree with the general sentiment of that statement, when your quarterback completes 23 passes for 232 yards and you've only put up 7 total points, it's not necessarily all execution. There's a play-calling element. There's also pass protection. Mostly, there just aren't any Redskins receivers or tight ends that can reliably go out and win individual match-ups. Malcolm Kelly, Devin Thomas, and Fred Davis might eventually be those guys. Right now, though, there's nobody. The Redskins have a group of guys that can execute extremely well, and that's to their credit. You need guys like that, and I wouldn't trade or dump a single one of them. On the other hand, there's this: Dallas has a goddamn rookie tight end with 4 touchdowns in 15 receptions. Martellus Bennett doesn't execute especially well, and the Cowboys don't ask him to. They line him up, send him more or less straight in the direction of the endzone, and throw the ball up in the air to him. He's 6'6", has long arms, jumps pretty well, and has a good chance of making a play. Sometimes, in the NFL, making the leap from efficient and methodical to explosive is as simple as giving your quarterback a guy or two who he can kinda force the ball to in important spots, even with an inaccurate throw, and the guy will make a play. Washington is tragically short in that department. The difference between guys like Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, Brett Favre, Philip Rivers, etc. and someone like Jason Campbell is that the "gunslingers" have a very high margin for error. In the case of Cutler and Favre, they bring part of that margin to the table with their arm strength. With Romo and Rivers, a huge part of the margin for error comes from the playmaking ability of their targets, the ability of those players to physically make up for slight mistakes or aggressive risks. Jason Campbell has a huge arm, he should be in that same group. The problem is there's virtually no margin for error in this offense or with these receivers. If someone told me at the beginning of the season that a huge-armed, extremely mobile quarterback would start every game for his 7-5 football team, complete 65% of his passes, and throw only 5 picks through 12 games, I would have guessed (in a heartbeat) that this quarterback would be closing in on 20 touchdowns and 3,000 yards. The math behind that is so easy, too: some of those completions are sure to be long touchdowns. Some of them are sure to be catch-and-run balls. Some of them are sure to be tight fits that his receivers just go up and take away from a defender. Some are sure to be screens or hitches or dump offs where his receiver makes a guy miss. For every, what, 6 completions that go for 5-7 yards, there's SURE to be a long gainer. For every 3 or 4 long gainers, there's SURE to be a score. For every sack, there's SURE to be a scramble for positive yardage or a first down that keeps a drive alive. When you've got a quarterback as talented and capable as Jason Campbell is, those seem like no-brainers.

None of this is intended to be a criticism of Jason Campbell, or even of Jim Zorn. My point here isn't to poke holes in the roster or the strategy or the staff or the playcalling or anything. Actually, all I'm saying is the tragic flaw of the 2008 Washington Redskins is that they aren't yet at the point, in their first year in this system, where they can cover for their own mistakes or they can go out and turn simple plays into big plays. Not in the passing game, anyway, and certainly not against good teams. Watching them play is agonizing for Redskins fans, because if Jason Campbell fails to connect on a first-down pass attempt, you know the Redskins need basically 8 yards on second down to have any kind of realistic chance to convert a third down, and you know that even if they do convert and get another first down, just the simple probability of them being able to do it four or five or even six more times to get into scoring position, and then coming up with another couple of perfectly called and perfectly executed plays once in scoring position, is incredibly slim. When the Redskins field a punt inside their own 30-yard line, I pretty much expect them to come away with nothing better than a field goal, and even that would be an accomplishment. Not because they're a lousy offensive team, but because the can't mis-fire at all, and they sure as hell can't mis-fire twice on the same drive and have any chance of scoring. Santana Moss is an electrifying player, but he's completely incapable of being the "toss it up there, he'll make a play" type of guy you absolutely must have in key situations.

In fact, this game had a few pretty interesting examples of this exact phenomenon. Eli Manning put up a few tough balls for his receivers; none of them were bad throws, but a few were 50-50 balls and another few were just demanding. Domenik Hixon went up and snagged a tough high throw in traffic early in the game, then came down with an extremely tough back shoulder sideline throw later in the game. Kevin Boss tore one away over the middle. These are the kinds of plays quarterbacks have to have. They have to be able to trust that their receivers can adjust to the ball and come up with a clutch catch. It helps when you have long, athletic targets like Boss, Hixon, and Amani Toomer, who often have a very real physical advantage over the guys covering them. Jason Campbell's deep ball to Antwan Randle El was another good example: yes, it was underthrown, but Randle El didn't adjust to it, didn't make a play on the ball, and sure as hell didn't just go up and take it away from anybody.

Now, a few other notes:

I'd like to exonerate Fred Smoot. His coverage on Amani Toomer was next-to-perfect. He stumbled a bit, but he was right on him stride-for-stride. Eli made a perfect throw. What can you do?

DeAngelo Hall has really good hands. Excellent hands. But he's a dismal tackler. He might be the worst tackler I've seen in a Redskins uniform since Deion Sanders. He needs to work on that.

Another dismal tackler, and I'm really, really sorry to say it, is Laron Landry. Holy shit, how in the hell does he even know where the ball carrier is? He spends more time looking at the turf of FedEx field than the grounds crew. I love the big hits, I love the guided-missile style, but he's got to pick his head up, stop going for the kill shot, find the ball-carrier, and wrap him up. A regular part of Redskins highlights these days is looking for the speeding bullet in white long sleeves diving across or underneath a ball-carrier like Superman, totally whiffing and taking himself completely out of the play. I love Laron Landry. I do. But it's getting out of control. He's got to play with his head on. He runs a long way from that deep cover-1 zone to just dive and miss.

Kevin Gilbride totally had Greg Blache's number on Sunday. The Giants ran a few of the more perfectly timed screens I've ever seen, not to mention the absolutely perfect Derrick Ward dump-off in the red-zone that led to Brandon Jacobs' touchdown plunge. Gilbride called a fantastic game.

Clinton Portis pretty clearly has no burst in his legs right now. That screen play made it painfully obvious. He was going about as slowly as I've seen him run ever. Rock Cartwright would have had more explosion. It couldn't be more obvious that the Redskins need a backup with some serious wheels to change the pace of the game now that Portis seems more like a workhorse who tops out at about 25 yards on any given carry.

The offensive line was much better on Sunday, but pass protection remains an issue. Campbell may have only been sacked twice, but he has to operate pretty damn quickly in the pocket, which is another reason the Redskins can't seem to get a big pass off.

That's all for this game. I'm about ready to write up the 2008 Washington Redskins. I think I totally get it now. I'm very proud of their winning record and excited about their future, but compared to other playoff caliber teams, they have a very slim margin for error and a pretty low ceiling in their current configuration. For years I've said I'd be happy with a hard-working, sharp, functional team with likable players and an innovative coach. That's what I now have, and sure enough, I'm pretty damn happy about it.

Tampa Bay over New Orleans, 23-20
My Pick: Tampa Bay over New Orleans, 31-29
There were at least two non-Redskins teams that seriously disappointed in must-win type games on Sunday. Buffalo was one, New Orleans was the other. They outgained the Bucs, held onto the ball longer, had more first downs, converted a far higher number and percentage of third downs, registered a greater number of sacks, were more efficient in the red-zone, and had fewer fumbles. The difference? Drew friggin' Brees, who chose just about the worst possible time to torpedo his MVP campaign. Drew Brees and penalties. It kinda rhymes if you say it just right.

That was a big win for the Bucs. They played poorly on offense, especially in the passing game, but they earned a typical Tampa Bay style victory, where it's impossible to know how it happened and you come away hating them all the more and even less confident in their chances of actually doing anything in the playoffs. Still, a win is a win, and they're still atop the NFC South. Good for them.

Carolina over Green Bay, 35-31
My Pick: Carolina over Green Bay, 31-29
Did I nail it or what? Man was that a solid pick!

DeAngelo Williams, y'all. Hey, anybody else notice how I spell the name DeAngelo the same way for everyone, regardless of how it might actually be spelled? I can do that. Know why? Because nobody's reading this piece of shit anyhow.

Two things . . . well, three: first, can we finally write off the goddamn Packers. I like this team, but they're out of it. Fork 'em. They find ways to lose. One week it's turnovers. The next it's bad defense. They don't have it this year. Second, folks in Green Bay probably still feel like they have a good team, and it's true. At every position except tailback the Packers have quality players they can hang onto. Next season, they'll be right back at the top of the North. Third, I'm not looking at or listening to any media coverage of anything sports related this week, so I won't be able to confirm this guess, but I'd wager the 5-7 Packers are ranked higher than the 7-5 Redskins in ESPN's Power Rankings after week 13. Those bastards love a talented young white quarterback. That's not meant to be a knock against Aaron Rodgers, who might be my second favorite quarterback in the NFL. My money's on this, though: if the Redskins were 5-7, had no running game and a mediocre, underperforming defense, folks around Washington would be all sunny as hell if there was a goofy white kid under center putting up 290 yards and 2 scores every Sunday. Chicks dig the passing game. NFL fans have gone all retarded. Fantasy Football is ruining our collective football savvy.

Atlanta over San Diego, 22-16
My Pick: Atlanta over San Diego, 28-23
Thank God that debacle is over. And of course, by "debacle" I'm referring to the 2008 San Diego Chargers. What a joke. 16 points at home in a must-win game is one thing, but coming out completely flat and lifeless and not giving a damn, that's unforgivable. And it's about what you'd expect from a Norv Turner team.

And the Falcons have now officially morphed into a terrifying NFL monster. They went from being plucky and competitive to the kind of team you confidently pick to win an opponent's must-win game at home. Roddy White is a legit number one NFL receiver. In fact, Roddy White is now what Chad Johnson was and ought to have stayed: a long, speedy guy who has a ton of success on deep balls and out-routes and has a ton of chemistry with his quarterback. If White can stay humble, he could be a long-term hero in Atlanta and turn in a fine NFL career. Michael Turner is a horse, he's definitely the guy, and it speaks to the character of Turner and especially Jerrius Norwood that those guys are as content as they are in complementing each other. Matt Ryan is a beast. Their offensive line is coming together. They're getting good production from other offensive weapons. The defense is improving every week. This Falcons team is very, very good.

The Chargers, on the other hand, are garbage. They're like the Sith version of the Falcons, spoiled and wasted. They've got complimentary backs but don't use them that way. They've got a sharp young passer, but he's too cocky and brash for his own good. They've got long, fast, talented receivers, but they don't show up and don't produce. The offensive line underperforms. The defense is dazed and sluggish. They're the football equivalent of Jose Canseco: a flashy, attractive package that only knows how to swing for the fences, can't do any of the little things, is utterly hollow, totally overrated, and completely air-headed. I hate the Chargers.

Denver over New York Jets, 34-17
My Pick: New York Jets over Denver, 41-21
I was way wrong about this one. The Jets are fake. They had a great run there, they're certainly dangerous, and maybe they have enough juice to get hot again, stay a contender, and make a run. On the other hand, I actually feel like the more time this team spends together, the more the rest of the NFL will figure them out, and the more their weaknesses will be exposed.

As for Denver, hey, they're that much closer to securing the division crown, and this at least looks like a legitimate win. The Jets were the hottest team in football and the Broncos took 'em down in New York. That's an accomplishment. These might be two of my least favorite teams in football, but that doesn't make this any less impressive a win.

Pittsburgh over New England, 33-10
My Pick: New England over Pittsburgh, 24-23
Wrong here, too. And I'm now about ready to buy the 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers. They owned the be-Jesus out of the Patriots. This was a back-alley ass-kicking. I guess we can all hop off the Matt Cassel bandwagon right about now. He was worse than garbage. He was garbage juice. 2 picks, 2 fumbles, 169 yards in 39 attempts, less than 50% passing. Ouch.

This was a big statement for Pittsburgh. Week 14's Dallas/Pittsburgh match-up should be hugely entertaining.

Kansas City over Oakland, 20-13
My Pick: Oakland over Kansas City, 75-72
If the NFL were Chinese and we lived in the 19th century, everyone associated with the Oakland Raiders and all their fans would have to march out to the town square and cram long, sharp swords into their own hearts. Losing to the Chiefs is like having sex with a dead body or something. Anyway, it's bad. Especially when it happens at home.

Minnesota over Chicago, 34-14
My Pick: Minnesota over Chicago, 37-27
Full disclosure: the only reason I picked the Vikings was because I needed a home team. My reasoning was sound, though; I picked against the Bears because NFC North games almost never end with the better team winning. Most of the time, the better team plays too conservatively and the crappier team plays bitter, vengeful football. Minnesota won because they're not the better team. Only in the NFC North.

Houston over Jacksonville, 30-17
My Pick: Houston over Jacksonville, 24-21
Now there's a team that's quit on the season and tuned out the head coach. Jacksonville had no interest whatsoever in competing on Monday night. This was a 23-3 football game, and it should have stayed that way. Jacksonville put a few meaningless scores up in the final 5 minutes, but it was way, way, way over before then. Houston dominated Jacksonville. Houston doesn't dominate anybody. They don't dominate their own practice squad. Jacksonville effing sucks. What a huge, huge disappointment this season has been for the Jaguars. There isn't a single part of this football team that has performed well this season. Not one unit, not one player, not one coach, not one strategy, nothing. The running game has been mediocre at best. David Garrard has been a non-factor for all but about 10 minutes of this season. The defense took an enormous step backwards. The receiving corps, loaded as it is with talented guys, hasn't looked like the same unit from one game to the next, owing at least in part to the fact that the coaches seem hell bent on playing musical chairs with the wide-outs. Jacksonville's playcalling and offensive identity have been abysmal since week 1. The Jaguars are a 'roided out, macho-facade having butter-soft, spineless, noncompetitive train-wreck. Booooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!


That, folks, is my whole week 13 recap, started at 10am Tuesday morning and finished 98 minutes later. I'll have some picks up by Thursday afternoon, and I'll maybe throw in an extra or something for good measure.

Peace!